Laboratorio Probabilidad Condicional-Independencia

1. Two fair dice are rolled. What is the conditional probability that at least one lands on 6 given
that the dice land on different numbers?
2. If two fair dice are rolled, what is the conditional probability that the first one lands on 6 given
that the sum of the dice is i? Compute for all values of i between 2 and 12.
3. What is the probability that at least one of a pair of fair dice lands on 6, given that the sum of
the dice is i, i=2, 3, ..., 12?
4. An urn contains 6 white and 9 black balls. If 4 balls are to be randomly selected without
replacement, what is the probability that the first 2 selected are white and the last 2 black?
5. The king comes from a family of 2 children. What is the probability that the other child is his
sister?
6. A couple has 2 children. What is the probability that both are girls if the older of the two is a
girl?
7. Consider 3 urns. Urn A contains 2 white and 4 red balls, urn B contains 8 white and 4 red balls,
and urn C contains 1 white and 3 red balls. If 1 ball is selected from each urn, what is the
probability that the ball chosen from urn A was white given that exactly 2 white balls were
selected?
8. Three cards are randomly selected, without replacement, from an ordinary deck of 52 playing
cards. Compute the conditional probability that the first card selected is a spade given that the
second and third cards are spades.
9. Two cards are randomly chosen without replacement from an ordinary deck of 52 cards. Let B
be the event that both cards are aces, let As be the event that the ace of spades is chosen, and
let A be the event that at least one ace is chosen. Find
(a) P(B|As)
(b) P(B|A)
10. A recent college graduate is planning to take the first three actuarial examinations in the
coming summer. She will take the first actuarial exam in June. If she passes that exam, then
she will take the second exam in July, and if she also passes that one, then she will take the
third exam in September. If she fails an exam, then she is not allowed to take any others. The
probability that she passes thefirstexamis.9. If she passes the first exam, then the conditional
probability that she passes the second one is .8, and if she passes both the first and the second
exams, then the conditional probability that she passes the third exam is .7.
(a) What is the probability that she passes all three exams?
(b) Given that she did not pass all three exams, what is the conditional probability that she
failed the second exam?
11. An urn initially contains 5 white and 7 black balls. Each time a ball is selected, its color is noted,
and it is replaced in the urn along with 2 other balls of the same color. Compute the
probability that
(a) the first 2 balls selected are black and the next 2 are white;
(b) of the first 4 balls selected, exactly 2 are black.
12. An ectopic pregnancy is twice as likely to develop when the pregnant woman is a smoker as it
is when she is a nonsmoker. If 32 percent of women of childbearing age are smokers, what
percentage of women having ectopic pregnancies are smokers?
13. Ninety-eight percent of all babies survive delivery. However, 15 percent of all births involve
Cesarean (C) sections, and when a C section is performed, the baby survives 96 percent of the
time. If a randomly chosen pregnant woman does not have a C section, what is the probability
that her baby survives?
14. In a certain community, 36 percent of the families own a dog and 22 percent of the families
that own a dog also own a cat. In addition, 30 percent of the families own a cat. What is
(a) the probability that a randomly selected family owns both a dog and a cat?
(b) the conditional probability that a randomly selected family owns a dog given that it
owns a cat?
15. A total of 46 percent of the voters in a certain city classify themselves as Independents,
whereas 30 percent classify themselves as Liberals and 24 percent say that they are
Conservatives. In a recent local election, 35 percent of the Independents, 62 percent of the
Liberals, and 58 percent of the Conservatives voted. A voter is chosen at random. Given that
this person voted in the local election, what is the probability that he or she is
(a) an Independent?
(b) a Liberal?
(c) a Conservative?
(d) What fraction of voters participated in the local election?
16. A total of 48 percent of the women and 37 percent of the men that took a certain “quit
smoking” class remained nonsmokers for at least one year after completing the class. These
people then attended a success party at the end of a year. If 62 percent of the original class
was male,
(a) what percentage of those attending the party were women?
(b) what percentage of the original class attended the party?
17. Fifty-two percent of the students at a certain college are females. Five percent of the students
in this college are majoring in computer science. Two percent of the students are women
majoring in computer science. If a student is selected at random, find the conditional
probability that
(a) the student is female given that the student is majoring in computer science;
(b) this student is majoring in computer science given that the student is female.
18. A total of 500 married working couples were polled about their annual salaries, with the
following information resulting:

For instance, in 36 of the couples, the wife earned more, and the husband earned less
than $25,000. If one of the couples is randomly chosen, what is
(a) the probability that the husband earns less than $25,000?
(b) the conditional probability that the wife earns more than $25,000 given that the
husband earns more than this amount?
(c) the conditional probability that the wife earns more than $25,000 given that the
husband earns less than this amount?
19. Urn I contains 2 white and 4 red balls, whereas urn II contains 1 white and 1 red ball. A ball is
randomly chosen from urn I and put into urn II, and a ball is then randomly selected from urn
II. What is
(a) the probability that the ball selected from urn II is white?
(b) the conditional probability that the transferred ball was white given that a white ball is
selected from urn II?
20. Suppose that 5 percent of men and .25 percent of women are color blind. A color-blind person
is chosen at random. What is the probability of this person being male? Assume that there are
an equal number of males and females. What if the population consisted of twice as many
males as females?
21. There are 15 tennis balls in a box, of which 9 have not previously been used. Three of the balls
are randomly chosen, played with, and then returned to the box. Later, another 3 balls are
randomly chosen from the box. Find the probability that none of these balls has ever been
used.
22. Consider two boxes, one containing 1 black and 1 white marble, the other 2 black and 1 white
marble. A box is selected at random, and a marble is drawn from it at random. What is the
probability that the marble is black? What is the probability that the first box was the one
selected given that the marble is white?
23. A family has j children with probability pj, where p1 = .1, p2 = .25, p3 = .35, p4 = .3. A child from
this family is randomly chosen. Given that this child is the eldest child in the family, find the
conditional probability that the family has
(a) only 1 child;
(b) 4 children.
Redo (a) and (b) when the randomly selected child is the youngest child of the family.
24. On rainy days, Joe is late to work with probability .3; on nonrainy days, he is late with
probability .1. With probability .7, it will rain tomorrow.
(a) Find the probability that Joe is early tomorrow.
(b) Given that Joe was early, what is the conditional probability that it rained?
25. With probability .6, the present was hidden by mom; with probability .4, it was hidden by dad.
When mom hides the present, she hides it upstairs 70 percent of the time and downstairs 30
percent of the time. Dad is equally likely to hide it upstairs or downstairs.
(a) What is the probability that the present is upstairs?
(b) Given that it is downstairs, what is the probability it was hidden by dad?
26. Stores A, B, and C have 50, 75, and 100 employees, respectively, and 50, 60, and 70 percent of
them respectively are women. Resignations are equally likely among all employees, regardless
of sex. One woman employee resigns. What is the probability that she works in store C?
27. Urn A has 5 white and 7 black balls. Urn B has 3 white and 12 black balls. We flip a fair coin. If
the outcome is heads, then a ball from urn A is selected, whereas if the outcome is tails, then a
ball from urn B is selected. Suppose that a white ball is selected. What is the probability that
the coin landed tails?
28. Consider a sample of size 3 drawn in the following manner: We start with an urn containing 5
white and 7 red balls. At each stage, a ball is drawn and its color is noted. The ball is then
returned to the urn, along with an additional ball of the same color. Find the probability that
the sample will contain exactly
 (a) 0 white balls;
(b) 1 white ball;
(c) 3 white balls;
(d) 2 white balls.
29. Three cooks, A, B, and C bake a special kind of cake, and with respective probabilities .02, .03,
and .05, it fails to rise. In the restaurant where they work, A bakes 50 percent of these cakes, B
30 percent, and C 20 percent. What proportion of “failures” is caused by A?
30. There are 3 coins in a box. One is a two-headed coin, another is a fair coin, and the third is a
biased coin that comes up heads 75 percent of the time. When one of the 3 coins is selected at
random and flipped, it shows heads. What is the probability that it was the two-headed coin?
31. An urn contains 5 white and 10 black balls. A fair die is rolled and that number of balls is
randomly chosen from the urn. What is the probability that all of the balls selected are white?
What is the conditional probability that the die landed on 3 if all the balls selected are white?
32. Each of 2 cabinets identical in appearance has 2 drawers. Cabinet A contains a silver coin in
each drawer, and cabinet B contains a silver coin in one of its drawers and a gold coin in the
other. A cabinet is randomly selected, one of its drawers is opened, and a silver coin is found.
What is the probability that there is a silver coin in the other drawer?
33. A high school student is anxiously waiting to receive mail telling her whether she has been
accepted to a certain college. She estimates that the conditional probabilities of receiving
notification on each day of next week, given that she is accepted and that she is rejected, are
as follows:

She estimates that her probability of being accepted is .6.

(a) What is the probability that she receives mail on Monday?
(b) What is the conditional probability that she received mail on Tuesday given that she
does not receive mail on Monday?
(c) If there is no mail through Wednesday, what is the conditional probability that she will
be accepted?
(d) What is the conditional probability that she will be accepted if mail comes on
Thursday?
(e) What is the conditional probability that she will be accepted if no mail arrives that
week?

39. A parallel system functions whenever al least one of its components work. Consider a parallel
system of n components, and suppose that each component works independently with
probability 0.5. Find the conditional probability that component 1 works given that the system
is functioning.
40. In a class, there are 4 freshman boys, 6 freshman girls, and 6 sophomore boys. How many
sophomore girls must be present if sex and class are to be independent when a student is
selected at random?
41. Independent flips of a coin that lands on heads with probability p are made. What is the
probability that the first four outcomes are
(a) H, H, H, H?
(b) T, H, H, H?
(c) What is the probability that the pattern T, H, H, H occurs before the pattern H, H, H, H?
Hint for part (c): How can the pattern H, H, H, H occur first?
42. A true–false question is to be posed to a husband and -wife team on a quiz show. Both the
husband and the wife will independently give the correct answer with probability p. Which of
the following is a better strategy for the couple?
(a) Choose one of them and let that person answer the question.
(b) Have them both consider the question, and then either give the common answer if
they agree or, if they disagree, flip a coin to determine which answer to give.
43. Suppose that each child born to a couple is equally likely to be a boy or a girl, independently of
the sex distribution of the other children in the family. For a couple having 5 children, compute
the probabilities of the following events:
(a) All children are of the same sex.
(b) The 3 eldest are boys and the others girls.
(c) Exactly 3 are boys.
(d) The 2 oldest are girls.
(e) There is at least 1 girl.
44. In a certain village, it is traditional for the eldest son (or the older son in a two-son family) and
his wife to be responsible for taking care of his parents as they age. In recent years, however,
the women of this village, not wanting that responsibility, have not looked favorably upon
marrying an eldest son.
(a) If every family in the village has two children, what proportion of all sons are older
sons?
(b) If every family in the village has three children, what proportion of all sons are eldest
sons?
Assume that each child is, independently, equally likely to be either a boy or a girl.
45. Suppose that E and F are mutually exclusive events of an experiment. Show that if
independent trials of this experiment are performed, then E will occur before F with
probability P(E)/[P(E) + P(F)].
46. Consider an unending sequence of independent trials, where each trial is equally likely to
result in any of the outcomes 1, 2, or 3. Given that outcome 3 is the last of the three outcomes
to occur, find the conditional probability that
(a) the first trial results in outcome 1;
(b) the first two trials both result in outcome 1.
47. An investor owns shares in a stock whose present value is 25. She has decided that she must
sell her stock if it goes either down to 10 or up to 40. If each change of price is either up 1
point with probability .55 or down 1 point with probability .45, and the successive changes are
independent, what is the probability that the investor retires a winner?
48. Die A has 4 red and 2 white faces, whereas die B has 2 red and 4 white faces. A fair coin is
flipped once. If it lands on heads, the game continues with die A; if it lands on tails, then die B
is to be used.
 (a) Show that the probability of red at any throw is 1 2.
(b) If the first two throws result in red, what is the probability of red at the third throw?
(c) If red turns up at the first two throws, what is the probability that it is die A that is
being used?
49. An urn contains 12 balls, of which 4 are white. Three players—A, B, and C—successively draw
from the urn, A first, then B, then C, then A, and so on. The winner is the first one to draw a
white ball. Find the probability of winning for each player if
(a) each ball is replaced after it is drawn;
(b) the balls that are withdrawn are not replaced
50. Show that if P(A)>0, then P(AB|A) ≥ P (AB|A ∪ B)
51. Let A ⊂ B. Express the following probabilities as simply as possible: P(A|B), P(A|Bc), P(B|A),
P(B|Ac)
52. Prove that if E1, E2, ..., En are independent events, then

53. The probability that a new car battery functions for over 10,000 miles is .8, the probability that
it functions for over 20,000 miles is .4, and the probability that it functions for over 30,000
miles is .1. If a new car battery is still working after 10,000 miles, what is the probability that
(a) its total life will exceed 20,000 miles?
(b) its additional life will exceed 20,000 miles?
54. How can 20 balls, 10 white and 10 black, be put into two urns so as to maximize the
probability of drawing a white ball if an urn is selected at random and a ball is drawn at
random from it?
55. Urn A contains 2 white balls and 1 black ball, whereas urn B contains 1 white ball and 5 black
balls. A ball is drawn at random from urn A and placed in urn B. A ball is then drawn from urn
B. It happens to be white. What is the probability that the ball transferred was white?
56. You ask your neighbor to water a sickly plant while you are on vacation. Without water, it will
die with probability .8; with water, it will die with probability .15. You are 90 percent certain
that your neighbor will remember to water the plant.
(a) What is the probability that the plant will be alive when you return?
(b) If the plant is dead upon your return, what is the probability that your neighbor forgot
to water it?
57. Six balls are to be randomly chosen from an urn containing 8 red, 10 green, and 12 blue balls.
(a) What is the probability at least one red ball is chosen?
(b) Given that no red balls are chosen, what is the conditional probability that there are
exactly 2 green balls among the 6 chosen?
58. A type C battery is in working condition with probability .7, whereas a type D battery is in
working condition with probability .4. A battery is randomly chosen from a bin consisting of 8
type C and 6 type D batteries.
(a) What is the probability that the battery works?
(b) Given that the battery does not work, what is the conditional probability that it was a
type C battery?
59. Maria will take two books with her on a trip. Suppose that the probability that she will like
book 1 is .6, the probability that she will like book 2 is .5, and the probability that she will like
 both books is .4. Find the conditional probability that she will like book 2 given that she did not
like book 1.
60. In a certain species of rats, black dominates over brown. Suppose that a black rat with two
black parents has a brown sibling.
(a) What is the probability that this rat is a pure black rat (as opposed to being a hybrid
with one black and one brown gene)?
(b) Suppose that when the black rat is mated with a brown rat, all 5 of their offspring are
black. Now what is the probability that the rat is a pure black rat?
61. Let A and B be events having positive probability. State whether each of the following
statements is (i) necessarily true, (ii) necessarily false, or (iii) possibly true.
(a) If A and B are mutually exclusive, then they are independent.
(b) If A and B are independent, then they are mutually exclusive.
(c) P(A) = P(B) = .6, and A and B are mutually exclusive.
(d) P(A) = P(B) = .6, and A and B are independent
62. Show that if P(A|B) =1, then P(Bc|Ac) =1.
63. Show that, for any events E and F, P (E|E ∪ F) ≥ P(E|F)