3-Statement Modeling Strictly Confidential

Table of Contents Model Checks

Outputs Model Exceeding Operational Capacity? No

Inputs Unused Tax Losses Remaining? No
Model Balanced Sheet Unbalanced? No

Model Circularity

Model Circularity 1

This model now has the circularity turned on. Please confirm the Excel settings below
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Dashboard: Charts & Graphs

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F

Driver Switch

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue 50,589 51,648 53,761 56,481 57,616 58,775 59,659 60,257

EBITDA 18,404 18,607 19,811 21,227 21,244 21,247 21,160 20,762

EBITDA Margin 36.4% 36.0% 36.9% 37.6% 36.9% 36.2% 35.5% 34.5%

Net Income 10,801 10,530 11,190 10,256 9,752 9,764 9,706 9,384
Net Income Margin 21.3% 20.4% 20.8% 18.2% 16.9% 16.6% 16.3% 15.6%

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

Operating 15,656 16,012 17,391 16,587 16,680 16,856 17,009 16,934

Investing (9,015) (11,733) (11,130) (25,475) (7,050) (7,275) (7,200) (7,688)
Financing (3,465) (7,761) (7,216) 478 (9,630) (9,581) (9,161) (6,877)
Change in Cash 3,176 (3,482) (955) (8,410) – – 648 2,370

INCOME STATEMENT CASH FLOW STATEMENT

Revenue EBITDA Margin Net Income Margin 20,000 Investing Financing Operating Change in Cash
62,000 40.0%

15,000
60,000 35.0%
10,000
58,000
30.0%
5,000
56,000
25.0% –
54,000
20.0% (5,000)
52,000
(10,000)
15.0%
50,000 (15,000)
10.0%
48,000 (20,000)

46,000 5.0% (25,000)

44,000 – (30,000)
2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026A 2027A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026A 2027A
Drivers

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F

Driver Switch 2

Sales Volume Growth 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5%

Best Case 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5%

Base Case 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5%
Worst Case 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

Pricing Increases 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5%

Best Case 3.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5%

Base Case 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5%
Worst Case 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

Capital Expenditure 25,475 7,050 7,275 7,200 7,688

Best Case 23,000 6,450 6,600 6,900 7,200

Base Case 25,475 7,050 7,275 7,200 7,688
Worst Case 27,500 7,800 8,100 8,250 8,400
Other Inputs

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F

Working Capital
Accounts Receivable (Days) 45 45 45 45 45
Inventory (Days) 25 25 25 25 25
Accounts Payable (Days) 40 40 40 40 40

Other Annual Inputs

Inflation Rate 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5%
Term Debt Increase / (Decrease) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000)
Common Equity Increase / (Decrease) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000)

Dates Taxes
First Year of Forecast (YYYY) 2023 Tax Rate 30%
Days in Period 365 First Year Tax Depreciation 50%
Blended Tax Depreciation Rate 15.0%
Tax Basis for Assets (End of 2022) 39,211
Other Single Inputs Tax Losses (End of 2022) 2,657
Plant Capacity (Units/Day) 1,600
Dividend Payout Ratio 20%

Interest Rates Depreciation

Cash Balances 1.0% First Year Accounting Depreciation 50%
Revolving Credit Line 5.0% Useful Life: Existing Assets (Years) 16.00
Long Term Debt 6.0% Useful Life: New Assets (Years) 20.00
Income Statement

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

Inflation 2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5%

Revenue 50,589 51,648 53,761 56,481 57,616 58,775 59,659 60,257

COGS (24,544) (25,104) (25,779) (26,798) (27,663) (28,557) (29,303) (30,070)
Gross Profit 26,045 26,544 27,981 29,683 29,953 30,218 30,356 30,187

SG&A (5,877) (6,006) (6,144) (6,359) (6,550) (6,746) (6,915) (7,088)

Other (1,764) (1,931) (2,026) (2,097) (2,160) (2,225) (2,280) (2,337)
EBITDA 18,404 18,607 19,811 21,227 21,244 21,247 21,160 20,762

Depreciation (2,960) (3,196) (3,452) (5,350) (6,163) (6,521) (6,883) (7,255)

EBIT 15,444 15,411 16,359 15,877 15,081 14,726 14,278 13,507

Interest Expense (1,688) (2,200) (2,350) (1,268) (1,149) (777) (416) (120)
Interest Income 200 180 193 42 – – 3 18
EBT 13,956 13,391 14,202 14,651 13,931 13,949 13,865 13,405

Current Tax – – – (2,866) (3,309) (3,508) (3,660) (3,684)

Deferred Tax (3,155) (2,861) (3,012) (1,530) (870) (677) (499) (338)
Total Tax (3,155) (2,861) (3,012) (4,395) (4,179) (4,185) (4,160) (4,022)

Net Income 10,801 10,530 11,190 10,256 9,752 9,764 9,706 9,384
Cash Flow Statement

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

CASH FROM OPERATING

Net Income 10,801 10,530 11,190 10,256 9,752 9,764 9,706 9,384
Deferred Taxes 3,155 2,861 3,012 1,530 870 677 499 338
Depreciation 2,960 3,196 3,452 5,350 6,163 6,521 6,883 7,255
Cash From Accounts Receivable (600) 300 100 (339) (140) (143) (109) (74)
Cash From Inventory (400) (400) (200) 174 (59) (61) (51) (52)
Cash From Accounts Payable (260) (475) (163) (382) 95 98 82 84
Subtotal 15,656 16,012 17,391 16,587 16,680 16,856 17,009 16,934

CASH FROM INVESTING

Capital Expenditure (9,015) (11,733) (11,130) (25,475) (7,050) (7,275) (7,200) (7,688)
Subtotal (9,015) (11,733) (11,130) (25,475) (7,050) (7,275) (7,200) (7,688)

CASH FROM FINANCING

Change in Long-Term Debt - (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000)
Change in Revolving Credit Line - - - 7,529 (2,680) (2,629) (2,220) -
Change in Common Equity - - - (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000)
Dividends (3,465) (3,761) (3,216) (2,051) (1,950) (1,953) (1,941) (1,877)
Subtotal (3,465) (7,761) (7,216) 478 (9,630) (9,581) (9,161) (6,877)

CASE BALANCE
Beginning of the Year 9,671 12,847 9,365 8,410 - - - 648
Increase / (Decrease) 3,176 (3,482) (955) (8,410) - - 648 2,370
End of the Year 12,847 9,365 8,410 - - - 648 3,018
Balance Sheet

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

ASSETS

Cash 12,847 9,365 8,410 – – – 648 3,018

Accounts Receivable 5,708 6,333 6,624 6,963 7,103 7,246 7,355 7,429
Inventories 1,792 1,923 2,009 1,835 1,895 1,956 2,007 2,060
Total Current Assets 20,347 17,621 17,043 8,799 8,998 9,202 10,010 12,507

Property Plant & Equipment 59,192 67,729 75,407 95,532 96,419 97,173 97,490 97,923

Total Assets 79,539 85,350 92,450 104,331 105,417 106,375 107,501 110,429

LIABILITIES

Accounts Payable 3,024 3,205 3,319 2,937 3,032 3,129 3,211 3,295
Revolving Credit Line – – – 7,529 4,849 2,220 – –
Total Current Liabilities 3,024 3,205 3,319 10,466 7,880 5,350 3,211 3,295

Deferred Taxes 4,155 7,016 10,028 11,558 12,428 13,105 13,604 13,942
Long-Term Debt 28,000 24,000 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 -
Total Liabilities 35,179 34,221 33,347 38,023 32,308 26,455 20,815 17,237

EQUITY

Common Equity 38,670 38,670 38,670 37,670 36,670 35,670 34,670 33,670
Retained Earnings 5,690 12,459 20,433 28,638 36,439 44,251 52,016 59,523
Total Shareholders' Equity 44,360 51,129 59,103 66,308 73,109 79,921 86,685 93,192

Total Liabilities & Equity 79,539 85,350 92,450 104,331 105,417 106,375 107,501 110,429

Check – – – – – – – –
Revenue Schedule

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

OPERATIONS

Sales Volume Growth 0.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5%

Sales Volume (Units/Day) 1,400 1,401 1,430 1,459 1,473 1,488 1,495 1,503
Plant Capacity (Units/Day) 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600
Operational Efficiency 93.3% 93.4% 95.3% 91.2% 92.1% 93.0% 93.5% 93.9%

VOLUME

Days in Period 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365
Sales Volume (Units/Day) 1,400 1,401 1,430 1,459 1,473 1,488 1,495 1,503
Sales Volume (Units) 511,000 511,365 521,950 532,389 537,713 543,090 545,805 548,534

PRICING

Pricing Increases 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5%

Unit Price (USD/Unit) 99.00 101.00 103.00 106.09 107.15 108.22 109.30 109.85

REVENUE

Sales Volume (Units) 511,000 511,365 521,950 532,389 537,713 543,090 545,805 548,534
Sales Price (USD/Unit) 99.00 101.00 103.00 106.09 107.15 108.22 109.30 109.85
Revenue 50,589 51,648 53,761 56,481 57,616 58,775 59,659 60,257

Operational Capacity Exceeded? No No No No No No No No

Cost Schedule

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

Sales Volume 511,000 511,365 521,950 532,389 537,713 543,090 545,805 548,534
Inflation 2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5%

VARIABLE COSTS

Materials (USD/Unit) 9.50 9.72 9.91 10.26 10.56 10.88 11.15 11.43
Packaging (USD/Unit) 0.80 0.84 0.86 0.89 0.92 0.94 0.97 0.99
Subtotal 10.30 10.56 10.77 11.15 11.48 11.83 12.12 12.42

Materials 4,855 4,970 5,173 5,461 5,681 5,910 6,088 6,271

Packaging 409 430 449 474 493 513 528 544
Subtotal 5,263 5,400 5,621 5,935 6,174 6,422 6,616 6,815

FIXED COSTS

Labor (USD/Unit) 30.59 31.24 31.31 31.77 32.40 33.04 33.70 34.37
Utilities (USD/Unit) 7.14 7.30 7.31 7.42 7.57 7.72 7.87 8.03
Subtotal 37.73 38.53 38.62 39.19 39.96 40.76 41.57 42.39

Labor 15,630 15,973 16,341 16,913 17,420 17,943 18,392 18,851

Utilities 3,651 3,731 3,817 3,951 4,069 4,191 4,296 4,403
Subtotal 19,281 19,704 20,158 20,864 21,489 22,134 22,687 23,255

SUMMARY

Variable Costs (USD/Unit) 10.30 10.56 10.77 11.15 11.48 11.83 12.12 12.42
Fixed Costs (USD/Unit) 37.73 38.53 38.62 39.19 39.96 40.76 41.57 42.39
Total Costs (USD/Unit) 48.03 49.09 49.39 50.34 51.45 52.58 53.69 54.82

Variable Costs 5,263 5,400 5,621 5,935 6,174 6,422 6,616 6,815
Fixed Costs 19,281 19,704 20,158 20,864 21,489 22,134 22,687 23,255
Total Costs 24,544 25,104 25,779 26,798 27,663 28,557 29,303 30,070
Working Capital Schedule

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

Days in Period 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365
Revenue 50,589 51,648 53,761 56,481 57,616 58,775 59,659 60,257
COGS 24,544 25,104 25,779 26,798 27,663 28,557 29,303 30,070

AMOUNTS PER DAY

Accounts Receivable (Days) 41 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Inventory (Days) 27 28 28 25 25 25 25 25
Accounts Payable (Days) 45 47 47 40 40 40 40 40

TOTAL AMOUNTS
Accounts Receivable 5,708 6,333 6,624 6,963 7,103 7,246 7,355 7,429
Inventory 1,792 1,923 2,009 1,835 1,895 1,956 2,007 2,060
Accounts Payable 3,024 3,205 3,319 2,937 3,032 3,129 3,211 3,295

CASH CHANGES
Accounts Receivable (625) (291) (339) (140) (143) (109) (74)
Inventory (131) (86) 174 (59) (61) (51) (52)
Accounts Payable 181 114 (382) 95 98 82 84
Cash from Working Capital Items (575) (263) (548) (104) (106) (78) (42)
Depreciation Schedule

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

Capital Expenditure 25,475 7,050 7,275 7,200 7,688

EXISTING ASSETS 1 Percent of Full Year

Useful Life (Years) 16.00 Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5
PP&E (End of 2022) 75,407 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Percent of Full Year

NEW ASSETS 1
Year Life 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Useful Life (Years) 20.00 2023F 20.00 50% 100% 100% 100% 100%
First Year Amount 50% 2024F 20.00 – 50% 100% 100% 100%
2025F 20.00 – – 50% 100% 100%
2026F 20.00 – – – 50% 100%
2027F 20.00 – – – – 50%

Amounts for Depreciation

Year Capex Per Yr 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
2023F 25,475 1,274 637 1,274 1,274 1,274 1,274
2024F 7,050 353 – 176 353 353 353
2025F 7,275 364 – – 182 364 364
2026F 7,200 360 – – – 180 360
2027F 7,688 384 – – – – 192

TOTAL ASSET DEPRECIATION 2

Existing Assets 4,713 4,713 4,713 4,713 4,713
New Assets 637 1,450 1,808 2,170 2,542
Total Depreciation 5,350 6,163 6,521 6,883 7,255

All PP&E and capital expenditure is assumed depreciable (i.e. no land balance). ⁽¹⁾
This schedule calculates depreciation on a straight-line basis. ⁽²⁾
Asset Schedule

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

Capital Expenditure 25,475 7,050 7,275 7,200 7,688

First Year Tax Depreciation 50%

Blended Tax Depreciation Rate 15.0%

PROPERTY PLANT & EQUIPMENT 1

Beginning 75,407 95,532 96,419 97,173 97,490
Capital Expenditure 25,475 7,050 7,275 7,200 7,688
Accounting Depreciation (5,350) (6,163) (6,521) (6,883) (7,255)
Ending 75,407 95,532 96,419 97,173 97,490 97,923

TAX BASIS 1
Beginning 39,211 56,894 54,881 53,378 52,031
Capital Expenditure 25,475 7,050 7,275 7,200 7,688
Tax Depreciation (7,792) (9,063) (8,778) (8,547) (8,381)
Ending 39,211 56,894 54,881 53,378 52,031 51,338

Model assumes no dispositions that would impact the PP&E or the Tax Basis. ⁽¹⁾
Income Tax Schedule

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

Earnings Before Tax (EBT) 14,651 13,931 13,949 13,865 13,405

Profitable Before Taxes? Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Tax Rate 30%

Unused Tax Losses Remaining? No

ADJUSTMENT FOR DEPRECIATION

EBT 14,651 13,931 13,949 13,865 13,405
Add: Accounting Depreciation 5,350 6,163 6,521 6,883 7,255
Less: Tax Depreciation (7,792) (9,063) (8,778) (8,547) (8,381)
EBT After Adjustment 12,209 11,031 11,693 12,201 12,279

ADJUSTMENT FOR TAX LOSSES 1

EBT After Adjustment 12,209 11,031 11,693 12,201 12,279
Less: Use of Tax Losses 2 (2,657) – – – –
Taxable Income 9,552 11,031 11,693 12,201 12,279

TAX LOSSES
Beginning 2,657 – – – –
Add: New Losses – – – – –
Less: Use of Tax Losses (2,657) – – – –
Ending 2,657 – – – – –

TAXES
Current Taxes 2,866 3,309 3,508 3,660 3,684
Deferred Taxes 1,530 870 677 499 338
Total Taxes 4,395 4,179 4,185 4,160 4,022

This schedule assumes that tax losses can be carried forward indefinitely into the future. ⁽¹⁾
This schedule assumes losses do not carry back to previous periods to reduce taxable income. ⁽²⁾
Debt Schedule: Part 1

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

CASH

Beginning Balance 8,410 – – – 648

Increase / (Decrease) (8,410) – – 648 2,370
Ending Balance 8,410 – – – 648 3,018

Interest Rate Circularity 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

Interest Income On 42 – – 3 18

LONG TERM DEBT

Beginning Balance 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000

Increase / (Decrease) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000)
Ending Balance 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 –

Interest Rate 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%

Interest Expense 1,080 840 600 360 120
Debt Schedule: Part 2

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

AVAILABLE CASH

Beginning Cash Balance 8,410 – – – 648

Cash from Operations 16,587 16,680 16,856 17,009 16,934
Cash from Investing (25,475) (7,050) (7,275) (7,200) (7,688)
Change in Long-Term Debt (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000)
Change in Common Equity (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000)
Dividends (2,051) (1,950) (1,953) (1,941) (1,877)
Cash Available for Revolving Credit Line (7,529) 2,680 2,629 2,868 3,018

REVOLVING CREDIT LINE

Beginning Balance – 7,529 4,849 2,220 –

Increase / (Decrease) 7,529 (2,680) (2,629) (2,220) –
Ending Balance – 7,529 4,849 2,220 – –

Interest Rate Circularity 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

Interest Expense On 188 309 177 56 –

Interest Expense 1,268 1,149 777 416 120

Less: Interest Income (42) – – (3) (18)
Net Interest Expense 1,226 1,149 777 412 102
Equity Schedule

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

COMMON EQUITY

Beginning Balance 38,670 37,670 36,670 35,670 34,670

Increase / (Decrease) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000)
Ending Balance 38,670 37,670 36,670 35,670 34,670 33,670

Net Income 10,256 9,752 9,764 9,706 9,384

Payout Ratio 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
Dividend 2,051 1,950 1,953 1,941 1,877

RETAINED EARNINGS

Beginning Balance 20,433 28,638 36,439 44,251 52,016

Net Income 10,256 9,752 9,764 9,706 9,384
Dividends (2,051) (1,950) (1,953) (1,941) (1,877)
Ending Balance 20,433 28,638 36,439 44,251 52,016 59,523