Climate Emergency Pamphlet
Climate Emergency Pamphlet
Climate Emergency Pamphlet
Chapter 1 The Science of Climate Change What caused the Ice Ages p. 5 Chapter 2 Climate Change Impacts
a) Sea Level Rise. b) Weather and Climate c) Weather extremes. d) Ecosystems and Biodiversity. e) Human impact f) Escalating crises g) Sudden big impacts abrupt climate changes
pp. 2-5
pp. 6-9
pp. 10- 13
Just how bad could it get in the very worst case scenario ? p. 13 Chapter 4 Climate Change Denial and Scepticism
a) Nobody likes bad news b) A Difficult thing to understand. c) Short term self interest and wishful thinking d) Special interest and the fossil fuel lobby. e) The Climate Denial Machine f) Leaked emails form the University of East Anglia. g) The media. h) Sceptic Arguments.
pp. 14-20
More on the Science global dimming pp. 18-19 i) The scientific consensus. Chapter 5 The Real Debate: how much are we underestimating the problem ?
a) The real uncertainty and the direction the debate is going b) A consistently overoptimistic assessment. c) The IPCC d) Ice loss from the Arctic. e) 350
pp. 21-24
pp. 25-27
pp. 28- 32
a) The solution must be global. b) The History: attempts to forge a global agreement.. c) Shortcomings and failures: where the international negotiating process has taken us so far d) The global solution a way forward e) A route to a global solution progress at the national level.
pp. 33-41
Geoengineering pp.36-37
d) Avoiding false solutions standing up to commercial pressures. e) Not enough is being done the government is letting us down f) Doing big things very quickly the whole of society acting together. g) A Green New deal Climate Jobs. h) Climate Emergency. i) Cynicism, ignorance, apathy and despair. j) A clear way forward.
pp. 42-49
Climate Change or Global Warming constitutes a massive threat to humanity which many find hard to understand in part because it is, in nature, quite unprecedented. Of course the climate has changed before and sometimes this has taken the form of the planet warming but what we mean by climate change or global warming is climate change, or warming, caused by humankind or, to put it in fancier language, anthropogenic climate change. This warming up of the climate, caused by humankind, is happening at a much faster rate than the natural variations in the climate that have occurred before. Or at least whenever the climate has changed at a rate approaching anything like what is happening now, in very distant prehistory, it has had a disastrous impact on life at the time, with mass extinctions of species. Humankind has had a destructive impact on the environment many times before, and the rate at which we have destroyed forests, polluted rivers, fouled the air in our cities and hunted species to extinction has accelerated phenomenally over the last two hundred years. What is different and new about human-caused climate change is that for the first time humankind is having an impact on the environment not just locally but at the global level that is to say that rather than just destroying a forest here or polluting a sea or river there (or even many forests and many rivers), we are doing something that effects the whole world all at once by influencing the natural systems that work at the global level. This is something quite unprecedented in human history and the implications are very frightening
Carbon Dioxide but which are known collectively as greenhouse gases that have this effect of absorbing the radiated energy and acting like a blanket. The actual amount of these greenhouse gases that are present in the atmosphere determines how effectively energy is trapped and thereby the temperature of the planet. By comparison to Earth, for instance, Mars has a thin atmosphere with low concentrations of greenhouse gases and therefore temperatures too low for most forms of life. Venus, on the other hand, has a very dense atmosphere with a very pronounced greenhouse effect and is too hot for most life, as we know it, to exist. The Earth has just the right balance for a wide variety of life forms to exist but recently humankind has begun to upset that fragile balance. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution we have been emitting extra greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, increasing, or enhancing, the greenhouse effect and thereby warming up the planet. These gases include methane, nitrous oxide, and CFCs (or chlorofluorocarbons) but the most significant of the extra greenhouse gases that we have been emitting into the atmosphere is carbon dioxide (CO2). This exists naturally in the atmosphere but we have been producing extra CO2 through our burning of fossil fuels the coal, oil and natural gas that powered the Industrial Revolution and continue to fuel Fig. 2 modern economies. As well as releasing the carbon from these fossil fuels formed from fossilised vegetation buried over millennia underground we have been destroying forests and thereby releasing huge quantities of carbon from living vegetation, as well. Over the last 2 hundred years we have increased the amount of carbon in the atmosphere by about ONE THIRD. By analysing the bubbles found in ice cores from Antarctica, we know this is a higher level than has been reached for 800,000 years and scientists think this level may not have been exceeded in the last 20 million years. This is far longer than humankind or even humanoid-type creatures have existed, so for humanity this is something quite unprecedented. The extra carbon, along with extra amounts of other greenhouse gases, have had the effect of enhancing the greenhouse effect and trapping more heat within the atmosphere. As a result the last three decades have each in turn been the warmest on record and global average surface temperature has risen by about
Fig. 3
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0.7C in the last hundred years. This may not sound much, but we need to bear in mind that the temperature difference between now and the ice age when much of Britain was under ice was only about 5 degrees. Already (as we shall see below) that 0.7C rise in temperature is having a considerable impact on the physical world around us. The real problem, though, is that it looks like the effect of the rise in greenhouse gas concentrations is only just beginning to filter through the climate system to affect global temperature - so there is a much bigger rise in temperature in the pipeline, as it were. The close relationship between the concentration of carbon (in the form of carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere and average global temperature becomes very clear when you look at the record from the past. Looking at a graph showing the temperature record for the last 450,000 years, say (see right), then as you would expect there are deep temperature troughs during the ice ages and then big temperature peaks during the interglacial periods in between. If you then superimpose the record for atmospheric carbon concentrations (dark line) then it is really striking how closely they mirror the temperature record. The only place they dont is right at the right hand end of the graph in other words in the very recent past, when (due to human activity) the carbon concentration shoots up but the temperature doesnt. Or it hasnt yet because the most obvious conclusion to draw is that the temperature just hasnt Fig. 4 yet had time to catch up with the carbon concentration but that when it very shortly does, it will shoot up, too. Thats scary and you can begin to see why we talk about a global emergency. The graph shows very clearly the close relationship between average global temperature and the concentration of carbon in the atmosphere and more detailed study does indeed broadly confirm what common sense would suggest that we should now expect average global temperature to catch up with the dramatic increase in atmospheric carbon concentration that weve seen in recent years. This illustrates one of the biggest problems about man-made global warming. There is a delayed effect between the increase in atmospheric carbon concentration and the rise in
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average global temperature. That means we dont feel the actual damaging impacts until its too late to do anything about it. We have to take action in response to the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere well before we see a really dramatic rise in temperature and begin to witness the full destructive impact of that on our environment.
c/ Weather extremes
What is not immediately obvious is that this long term trend we call 'Global Warming' does not just mean an increase in (global average) temperatures: it also means an increase in the 'energy' in weather systems generally. The extra energy in the system, in other words, not only makes for an increase in temperatures: it also makes for more extreme and more violent Hurricane Dolly 2008 weather. More heat can mean more evaporation which in turn means more rain and potentially floods while in other areas, or at other times, extreme desiccating heat can intensify droughts. More energy in the system means stronger winds and storms. So one thing we can predict is that overall there will be a steady increase in the frequency and severity of weather-related 'natural' disasters - floods, droughts, hurricanes, heat-waves, wildfires and so on (but in reality these will no longer be purely natural because in part they will reflect the human influence on climate).
loss would be problems anyway even without global warming due to the many other destructive impacts of ever growing numbers of ever more resource hungry human beings. So in these cases man-made climate change will combine with other factors to produce the serious negative impacts that we see.
e/ Human impacts
This combination of factors is all the more evident when we come to the impact of global warming on the worlds most dominant species humankind. As with other species human communities are adapted to certain conditions so any change in these are likely to cause hardship in the short term. As well as that, todays highly populated world, with many people crammed into coastal districts and cities, highly dependant on fragile infrastructures, means there is a very high level of vulnerability to the kind of natural disasters we mentioned above. In fact the impact of global warming on vulnerable communities is already severe and likely to get much worse, but it is not always obvious or easily quantifiable. We may be shocked by terrible hurricanes or floods but see nothing new in these natural disasters because an increase in their severity or frequency is harder to spot, and the resulting increase in victims difficult to quantify. Meanwhile it is because the impact of global warming is often combined with other factors that it can be hard to see. We see a civil war in Sudan but not the underlying causes that include conflict over diminishing fertile lands caused by desertification, caused in part by global warming. We see uprisings in the Arab world which we attribute to political causes largely correctly but we may not see how rising food prices played a part and how those in turn were caused to an extent by the negative impact of global warming on agriculture. So the impact of global warming can feed into already existing sets of problems and amplify them, while often being a factor that is easily overlooked.
f/ Escalating Crises
Extrapolating out from the impacts noted above we can see how in the future global warming could have a devastating effect on agriculture through shifting rainfall patterns that might include the failure of the monsoon, for instance, or large areas of land succumbing to desertification. Added to that is the melting of glaciers and mountain ice which could mean that rivers with a steady flow now see torrential spring floods followed by near drying out, later in the year. In the case of the Himalayas this could have big impact on the rivers (Indus, Ganges, Mekong, Yellow River etc) upon which a very large part of the worlds population depend for their agriculture and food supply. Finally, much agricultural land could be lost to rising sea levels. The combined effect of all these factors on agriculture could result, in turn, in famine, economic collapse, high levels of emigration, large numbers of refugees, chronic political instability, civil unrest and escalating conflict. But long before that happens global warming will simply be making many of the problems we are used to much worse. It will be one among many factors but the point is that out of all those factors it is the one that has the potential to grow in scale exponentially until it becomes finally quite clearly the dominant, overwhelming, factor.
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a/ Tipping points
The assumption often made, however, is that of a relatively smooth or linear rise in temperature with the steepness of the curve on the graph corresponding to a given rate of increase of the current accumulation of extra greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. So the line on the graph whilst angled upwards, curves relatively smoothly and we have a certain level of predictability that we can plan around. Unfortunately the geological record suggests that non-linear progression has been closer to the norm, in previous episodes of rapid global temperature change. This means that the line on the graph is not smooth but in fact steepens abruptly when certain thresholds or tipping points are met. These tipping points are essentially the triggering of positive feedback effects. These can best be understood by considering examples.
b/ Burning forests
The drying out and burning of forests will release more carbon into the atmosphere which will in turn cause the temperature to rise yet more quickly again (causing yet more burning of forests and so on). As we have seen, it has been suggested that the Amazon could dry out to a point at which a series of mega-fires could destroy it as a rainforest ecosystem, completely. This could release a very large amount of carbon into the atmosphere within a fairly short time frame with a very considerable effect on global temperature.
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f/ Methane Hydrates
Yet another potential feedback effect is particularly associated with the Arctic. Underneath the oceans are the remains of organic matter from dead plankton or washed into the sea by rivers over the millennia, degraded by bacteria and frozen to form crystalline methane hydrates. These are kept stable by a mixture of temperature and pressure but in the relatively shallow, cold, Arctic sea the former is especially important. An increase in temperature caused by a warming of the waters could release large quantities of methane from the hydrates. Methane is a greenhouse gas twenty times as powerful as Carbon Dioxide. Whilst it does not last nearly so long in the atmosphere as CO2 it does not just go away either, but degrades, partly into CO2. It is thought the very rapid rises in atmospheric carbon and temperature associated with 'extinction events' such as that of the End-Permian (which wiped out 95% of life on Earth as it then existed) 251 million years ago or of the PETM (Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum) 55 million years ago, could only have been caused by massive releases of methane from the ocean beds. So it looks like the melting of methane hydrates has been one of the main causes, if not the main cause, of big, relatively sudden rises in temperature with associated huge destructive impacts in the earths past. You can only get a really big meltdown of methane hydrates when they have had a long time to accumulate (since the last meltdown) but unfortunately there is a very high accumulation of methane hydrates beneath the earths oceans right now. The methane gun is, as it were, fully loaded. In 2008, for the first time, methane was found escaping to date in relatively small quantities from the Arctic Ocean...
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Fig 5
All these positive feedback effects involve the increased emission of greenhouse gases from natural sources. At a certain point these natural processes could become so strong that they would be putting more extra carbon into the atmosphere than humankind itself is, directly. This would be the case, for instance, if we saw massive releases of carbon dioxide and methane from melting permafrost, or ocean-bed methane hydrates. At the point that that happened we would have what has been called runaway global warming and the situation would be completely outside our control because it would no longer matter how much we managed to reduce our own directly man-made emissions. As a yardstick of comparison, and an indication of how potentially close we are to the situation getting out of control, just 0.1% of the carbon locked up in the worlds permafrost is equal to the amount of carbon that the world could prevent from entering the atmosphere by reducing global emissions by 80% by 2050. In other words, everything that we could do through that level of emissions reduction would be cancelled out by the release of that mere 0.1% of the carbon trapped in the permafrost. Meanwhile all these potential feedback effects, which are not well understood in terms of their precise scale and imminence, make it very hard to plan ahead in a way that could guarantee that we remain safe from the catastrophic impacts of climate change. The task for planners is, as it were, redefined it is not about how to keep that line on the graph from rising too steeply, it is about not letting it on any account reach a certain level when it will suddenly shoot upwards. The situation we are in is not so much that of the thrifty householder who simply needs to plan their carbon budget wisely and well ahead but rather of the man staggering though a minefield in the dark: he does not know when he might make that fateful step that
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will obliterate him, he only knows that the more walking he does the more likely he is to make it. The situation, in other words, is much more uncertain and dangerous than generally portrayed. Whilst we need emission reduction targets to aim for and to organise policy around there is no way any target can be guaranteed to be safe, as some in authority might suggest. We do not just have a huge but predictable threat that we need to do perhaps big, but measurable, things to deal with we are rather already in an irreversibly dangerous situation where there is an overwhelming need simply to do as much as we possibly can as fast we possibly can, to give ourselves the best possible chance of avoiding the very worst catastrophic impacts. It is in other words, not simply a global problem, or even a global crisis, but rather a global emergency.
Just how bad could it ultimately get in the very worst case scenario ?
Well, it has been pointed out that the planet Venus (which currently has an atmosphere that is 97% carbon with a greenhouse effect strong enough to result in a surface temperature of 450 degrees Celsius) was at one time more like earth with, most likely, a considerable quantity of liquid water on its surface. That water all evaporated in a runaway greenhouse effect (to which the extra water vapour would have contributed) which also caused over time all the carbon in the planets crust to be baked out into the atmosphere, while finally the water vapour, itself, was broken down and lost to space. The earth is further away from the sun than Venus and so clearly receives less energy from it, but nevertheless it has been suggested that a parallel kind of runaway greenhouse effect could happen on earth if humankind burned all the fossil fuel reserves in existence (including the unconventional fossil fuels like tar sands, etc.) and triggered a massive melt down of the methane hydrates (about which see above). This is because the rate at which the planet reacts to temperature change (its sensitivity) increases as it gets warmer and given that the speed at which humankind is affecting the planet might not allow the kind of negative feedback processes (which have stopped this kind of thing happening so far in earths history) the time to actually kick in. This process would necessarily involve the total melting of the ice caps and so would most likely take some hundreds of years at least. Given the uncharted territory into which the scale and speed of such a burning by humanity of all fossil fuels would be taking us and the difficulty of quantifying so many of the factors involved, there is not a strong or broad scientific consensus around this scenario but it represents the view of at least one eminent scientist. So if you are asking what is the very worst that is conceivably possible then thats it: a planet on which any kind of life would not be possible. Of course we would have passed the stage that we might reasonably label a global catastrophe, in human terms, a very, very, long time before we got to that.
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may incline them not to want to think climate change is real. Then again, people may believe, perhaps correctly, that dealing with climate change may require that they change their behaviour or lifestyle and that may incline them not to want to believe it is real, too. Arguably it is significant that the recent sceptic backlash against climate change science occurred just at the point when it looked like we might finally be about to actually do something about it.
often those who adhere to a more extreme version of the neoliberal economic philosophy would rather just try to claim that there was no big threat we have to face and that man-made global warming either does not exist or is not serious.
Tea Party supporters demonstrate against Climate Change legislation in New Mexico (left) and Arizona (right), 2009.
are in possession of a huge volume of anyones personal correspondence you are almost bound to find some things that can be used to put that person in a bad light, and some of the scientists involved had been under a sustained attack from sceptics for some time and had reacted by becoming defensive or even, arguably, manipulative. Meanwhile it was easy to misrepresent the efforts that any serious scientist must make, through the review process for instance, to maintain high academic standards, as a form of censorship or undue bias. The fact is that had the research department at UEA been shown to be genuinely flawed in some way then there was in any case a host of other institutions, and indeed a huge worldwide scientific consensus, that supported the science of climate change. But in actual fact not one single significant finding, by one single scientist at UEA was put into serious question, let alone the scientific standing of the department as a whole. Yet the public received a very different impression and the fact that it did vouched for the extraordinary effectiveness of the climate denial machine, as well as perhaps showing what kind of message large sections of the public wanted to hear.
g/ The media
The media meanwhile, played a large role in this because their interests were, for the most part, better served by blowing up the whole affair into a notorious scandal than giving a balanced view that might risk making it less newsworthy. The rich and powerful sceptic lobby in any case either owns, or uses its money to influence, large sections of the media, especially in the US. Other parts of the media, usually the more down-market end of the spectrum, simply find they can sell more newspapers, or attract larger audiences, by promoting a populist message that many people want to hear. So often it is much easier for them to ridicule than to explain the unfamiliar and quite complicated science behind global warming.
h/ Sceptic Arguments
The misleading, or downright bogus, arguments that the deniers or sceptics typically use are too many to list and refute here but one ploy (i) is to point out that CO2 is natural and beneficial to life. This is true but it is the actual amount, the excess quantity, in the atmosphere that matters and which is detrimental. Another example (ii) is the claim that the increase in temperatures we now see is nothing unusual because there were many previous changes in climate that were not caused by human activity, like the so called Medieval warm phase. This latter was in fact really a localised (mainly North Atlantic) rather than global phenomenon. In any case, it ignores the real point, which as we saw above, is the totally exceptional rise in the concentration of carbon in the atmosphere that we are seeing now certainly unprecedented for 800,000 years and probably for as much as 20 million years. Yet another sceptic gambit (iii) is the claim that global warming has ceased since 1998. This is because 1998 was an exceptionally warm year actually 2005 and 2010 have been warmer still but it could be made to look like the global warming trend has flattened out since 1998. In fact scientists are always looking beyond the exceptions to identify the underlying trend and when they average it all out the trend is seen to be maintained. There was a reason that 1998 was exceptionally warm and that is because it was a strong El Nio year. This refers to a cyclical oscillation of the ocean currents in the tropical Eastern Pacific that bring warm (El Nio) or cold (La Nia) water to the surface with a sometimes significant warming or cooling effect on global temperatures. This cyclical oscillation is the most significant
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temporary fluctuation in yearly global average temperatures: as such, its effect is precisely what scientists seek to exclude when establishing the long term underlying trend. One thing that consistently exposes the sceptics is the opportunistic way that so many tend to change their argument according to what they think they can get away with. At first, or when they think their audience is particularly easy to persuade, they argue that global warming is not happening. It is a myth or a hoax. Next, when under a bit more pressure, they may admit that the figures prove that average global temperatures are rising, but will claim that this is not caused by human activity, but has natural causes. Finally, in contexts where they are under real pressure and desperate to retain some kind of scientific credibility they may admit it is happening but claim that it is not serious and that to do anything about it will be too expensive and not worth it. Some commentators, like Bjrn Lomborg, have gone through most of these stages in a kind of strategic retreat. The fact that so many sceptics are opportunistic in this way and use simply whatever argument they can find for a conclusion that they have already decided upon shows that these sceptics are not showing true scientific scepticism at all otherwise they would be equally critical of all the different arguments, but it is quite clear they are not.
pollution and sulphate aerosols, this had the effect of cooling the planet, or at least flattening out for a while the trend towards increased global average temperatures. The largely successful effort to reduce dirty pollution in Europe and the US in the sixties and seventies are a part of the reason the balance shifted back towards a warming trend. But in fact the warming trend was always going to be more significant in the long term This is because greenhouse gases like CO2, once emitted, remain in the atmosphere for hundreds of years so as humanity continually emits CO2 so it accumulates in the atmosphere, where it becomes more and more concentrated, enhancing ever further the greenhouse warming effect. By contrast dirty pollution, like sulphate aerosols, do not stay in the atmosphere for very long they do not therefore accumulate in the same way and depend on a constant level of emission to maintain their global dimming effect. The bad news is that this pollution now mainly as a result of the dirty industry in China, South Asia and newly industrialising countries is masking the underlying warming trend, which is therefore worse than we think it is. If we clean up the industries responsible, as we obviously want to, to control visible dirty pollution with its many damaging impacts on health and so on, then this will have the effect of reducing the dimming effect and so increasing the warming trend. If we managed to just stop all kinds of emissions now instantaneously (something we obviously want to do) then unfortunately the immediate effect will be more warming a relatively sudden spike in average global temperatures. This is because the sulphates that produce the dimming effect will rapidly fall out of the atmosphere, once they are not being constantly replenished but the warming greenhouse gases like CO2 will stay there so you will cancel out the cooling, dimming effect but the warming greenhouse effect will remain. Of course stopping the emission of greenhouse gases will slow down the rate of warming over the long term and is something we desperately need to do (whilst reducing dirty pollution and aerosols is also something we want to do for other, obvious, reasons) but there is a sense in which humanity is building a trap for itself because we can only achieve what we want and need to do by making things temporarily worse before they get better. The actual dimming or cooling effect of sulphate aerosols is difficult to quantify, and so the warming spike that would result from eliminating them is difficult to quantify too but the worst case scenario is that it would be just enough to tip us into some kind of irreversible runaway warming situation. What we definitely dont want to do, in any case, is, as it were, get sucked further into the trap.
journals over a 10-year period (between 1993 and 2003, and listed in the ISI database with the keywords climate change). Of the 928 articles on climate change the authors found, not one of them disagreed with the consensus position that climate change is happening and is humaninduced (75% of the papers agreed with the consensus position while 25% made no comment either way). Not only that, but when you look closely there is clearly a correlation between how much any given group of people knows about the subject and the degree of unanimity with which they support the consensus. When a survey asked 3146 earth scientists the question, "Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?" 82% of all the scientists answered yes. Of the scientists amongst these who were nonclimatologists and didn't publish research, a lower percentage 77% answered yes. However, looking at those scientists out of the 3146 who were climatologists, who actively publish research on climate change, 97.5% responded yes. So in other words, as the level of active research and specialisation in climate science increases, so does agreement that humans are significantly changing global temperatures. Of course, more striking still is the divide between expert climate scientists and the general public. As we have seen 97.5 % of the former support the consensus while surveys have found that something like 60% of the latter do. The problem is that, all too often, the issue is presented in the media through a debate with one person arguing for and one against the reality of human induced climate change. So the impression the public gets is, therefore, of a fifty-fifty argument, when in fact, amongst the real climate experts, it is more like 97 for to 3 against. The gap between the (average) perception of the public and that of the experts is thereby perpetuated and reinforced. The fact that the scientific consensus is so strong is why we feel justified in using the word deniers for those who wilfully chose to ignore it, and often disguise or misrepresent it to others. When confronted with it there are some who resort to elaborate conspiracy theories as to why such a strong consensus exists then they really do begin to expose themselves as the eccentric fringe group they really are.
Greenpeace US expose the billionaire Koch brothers as funders of climate disinformation
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proving true. This means that we can often have a situation where, even where the plans for addressing the threat of catastrophic climate change are proving fantastically difficult or impossible to implement due to a failure to secure the necessary political support at national or international level, those plans themselves, still fall a long way short of what really needs to be done.
c/ The IPCC
The scientific consensus that we examined above is most clearly expressed at the international level through the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or IPCC. This was created by the UN (through the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Programme) in 1988 when global warming first became recognised as a major problem. Its purpose was to evaluate the state of climate science, primarily on the basis of peer-reviewed and published scientific literature, to form a basis for informed policy action. Its reports became especially important to give a sound scientific base to the international negotiations that have been conducted under the aegis of the UNFCCC or United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. which was set up at the Rio Earth Summit of 1992 with a mission to coordinate international action on climate through international agreements like the Kyoto Protocol. The IPCC is one of the largest bodies of international scientists ever assembled to study a scientific issue, involving more than 2,500 scientists from more than 130 countries. Despite this, its credibility is constantly challenged by the sceptics: in reality what they dont like is the fact that it not only supports the scientific consensus on human-induced climate change but also transmits that consensus to those who might potentially shape actual policy at the international level. However this does not mean that the IPCC is always right in every possible way: its just that its failings are far from those that are claimed by the sceptics. As we have seen, it represents the consensus of a huge body of experts, but establishing that consensus is a process that not only tends to favour the cautious and conservative but necessarily takes a very long time. There are long periods between new reports and the science used in the reports may already be somewhat dated even when the IPCC report first appears. That means that in a situation where the science is evolving and changing very rapidly, the IPCC reports the primary scientific report on which policy is based can often be out of date. And out of date, given the general direction of movement of the science, more often than not means that the threat posed by human-induced climate change is underestimated rather than overestimated. In fact a number of leading scientists have now suggested that this is the case.
happened ice disappeared much more quickly than expected. Although the area (though not actually the volume) has picked up a bit since the stunning record low of 2007 it is still well below IPCC projections. An average prediction for the total disappearance of arctic summer ice ten or so years ago hovered around the 80-years-from-now mark. It is not now unusual to hear predictions of the complete disappearance of summer arctic ice in around 30 years or even less. Scientists are finding that the very physical world around them is moving much more quickly than they have predicted.
Fig 6
e/ 350
One of the leading scientists perhaps the most prominent to paint a more grave and urgent picture than even the IPCC does is Doctor James Hansen from the NASA Goddard Institute in the US. His name has become particularly associated with the number 350 which has even become the name of an international climate change campaign. What the number refers to is parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in other words a certain level of concentration of this greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. As we have seen this has increased rapidly in recent times since the advent of the Industrial Revolution and the burning of fossil fuels on a large scale. Before the Industrial Revolution the level of CO2 in the atmosphere was around 275 ppm or parts per million. It is currently (2011) around 390 ppm. What Hansen and other are saying is that a safe level would be 350 ppm at most. So in other words, we have already gone beyond the safe level. Even if we were to reduce our emissions to zero tomorrow, the excess greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would mean warming would continue. The planet would still be in an unsafe state with the climate gradually destabilizing, or slipping relentlessly towards a rate and degree of climatic change that would be catastrophic for humans. This would be happening much more slowly than if we continue to pump out huge quantities of greenhouse gases but it would still be happening. However, because that slippage towards catastrophic climate change happens relatively slowly we have a window of opportunity to do something about it before it becomes irreversible. (It will certainly become irreversible, for instance, when melting of the land-based ice caps is well underway since these can only restore themselves by an accumulation of snowfall turning to ice which only occurs over a time scale that is vast by human standards). What Hansen is saying is that what we need to do within that window is not only reduce our greenhouse gas emissions to net zero as fast as we can, but also, at some stage, to actually take some of the CO2 out of the atmosphere. We have already seen how urgent our task is in terms of acting before we reach some unseen and potentially irreversible tipping point: the 350 concept gives us an idea of the sheer magnitude of our task as well.
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6. Climate Justice
a/ Unequal Responsibilities
Human-induced global warming has serious moral implications. This is, in part, because not
every human, or group of humans, has had an equal role in causing it and not all humans will suffer equally from its impacts. In brief, it is the richer long industrialised countries that have overwhelmingly the greatest responsibility for the level of greenhouse gases, especially CO2, currently in the atmosphere whilst it is the poorest communities in the world with very low emissions who have done the least to cause the problem but who will tend to suffer most and soonest - because they have the least resources to deal with the impacts, often inhabit zones of high impact like the floodplain of Bangladesh or the African Sahel and are already, as it were, living on the edge so that any further deterioration in their circumstances would be disastrous. Given the colossal scale on which it is likely to unfold this makes climate change the greatest issue of global justice of our times. The richer developed countries (lets call them the rich North) are responsible in two ways. First, there is the fact that they have been industrialised the longest and therefore have the greatest historical responsibility for the current excessive build up of CO2 in the atmosphere. (The graph opposite represents the total historical emissions of various countries divided by their population: the UK has the greatest cumulative emissions, per person, because it has been industrialised the longest). Fig 7 Second, the richer developed countries are for the most part the countries with the highest current rate of emissions per head of population so they are also doing the most to make the problem yet worse in proportion to their population. In fact in some ways the inequality in the level of responsibility is even greater than it seems because if we measure the total quantity of emissions from the UK, for instance, (and divide it by the population) we fail to take into account the fact that through importing large quantities of goods from places like China we are in a sense responsible for all the emissions associated with the manufacture of those goods (although by the normal way of reckoning they would be apportioned to China). Of course we in the UK do not produce anything like the number of goods, here, for export to the Chinese, so there is no balance, in that sense. By and large emissions are proportionate to consumption because most goods require energy in their manufacture and transport and - at least until we find a way of producing energy, on a much larger scale than now, without burning fossil fuels - high energy use means high emissions. It is therefore precisely the high-consuming lifestyles of the rich that are making life even worse for those who already have the least. We can see how this might, in due course,
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provoke a veritable tidal wave of anger from the poor South towards the rich North especially when the impacts on the former become much more severe and obvious than they are now. Of course those in the richer countries of the North have not deliberately set out to create this state of affairs but as we have seen, there is now a clear consensus amongst scientists about what is happening so it is not now possible to claim the excuse of ignorance. There is an overwhelming moral responsibility for richer countries to act to reduce damaging emissions something that is, of course, in their own long to medium term interest anyway. At the same time one can see, in Floods in Pakistan, 2010 this context, just how damaging are the activities of the deniers and just how damning the moral verdict should be on those who deliberately spread disinformation on climate change.
b/International negotiations
The issues around the unequal levels of responsibility, and conversely vulnerability, between rich and poor countries bulk large in the international negotiations that have been ongoing under the aegis of the UNFCCC with the aim of coordinating international action on climate through international agreements like the Kyoto Protocol. Developing countries have demanded that the long industrialised, developed countries take the greater responsibility and act first, as well as giving assistance to poorer countries to adapt to those impacts of climate change that it is already impossible for us to prevent. Given that these impacts, and climate change in general, are caused overwhelmingly by the richer countries (now and in the past) and very little by the poorer countries then this is clearly an argument with considerable moral force. Developing countries further argue that they have a right to achieve the same level of development as richer countries something those richer countries only achieved by putting vast amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (that now threaten everybodys prosperity if not, indeed, survival.). Developing countries argue that in any international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions they should either not have to cut their emissions (or cut a
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smaller percentage than rich countries) and be allowed to continue emitting sufficient to allow them to develop and/or they should receive financial and other assistance to allow them to develop in a different green way - not the carbon-intensive model of development pursued in the past by todays developed countries.
c/ Russian heat wave, crop failure, grain shortage - and riots in Mozambique
Of course there are already great inequalities and arguably injustices in the world but climate change has the potential to exacerbate and profoundly deepen these. As we noted in Section 2 on climate change impacts, climate change will initially act in combination with other factors, but it has the potential to grow, to become in due course the overwhelmingly important one. The way in which climate change is already acting to hit the poorest hardest was well illustrated in 2010 when all-time record temperatures caused a quite exceptional heat wave and widespread forest fires around Russia. Quite a few people died from these in Russia itself but the high temperatures also destroyed around 20% of Russias grain harvest with the indirect effect of forcing up food prices. Through this indirect effect, the impact of this climate disaster was passed on to the worlds poorest and we saw, for instance, food riots in Mozambique, as a result. The point is that even though the immediate impacts were felt in a medium income country, the effects were nevertheless passed down the line, as it were, to the worlds poorest through rising food prices. It is through indirect effects like these and in particular rising food prices (caused by a combination of factors but amongst which climate change is becoming increasingly important) that we can expect to see the poorest in the world suffering more and more. And that is before we see the potentially massive devastation and millions of refugees that are likely to result from the flooding of large parts of Bangladesh, say, or the drying out of huge areas of the Sahel region and other really large-scale and devastating impacts of global warming. This will all be happening very largely as a result of the high consuming lifestyles of the worlds richer people.
Food riots in Mozambique, 2010.
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7. A Global Solution
a/ The solution must be global
Climate Change is a global problem par excellence. It can only be tackled ultimately at the global level. For a farmer in Bangladesh, for instance it does not matter whether the greenhouse gas emissions are coming from a power station down the road in Dhaka, or from one in far away London or in Beijing or in Washington DC: he will suffer from their effects equally in terms of how more likely they will make it that his land is flooded or he is hit by a strong cyclone. The domestic policy of any state in terms of its energy policy or indeed anything that affects its rate of consumption is no longer just its own business: it can affect people in other countries to a degree, potentially, that in a previous age you could only match by actually marching in with a plundering army and laying waste to the land. At the same time it is no use reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in one place if you fail to stop them rising somewhere else and in fact the likelihood is that no-one will reduce their emissions to any very significant degree at all if they suspect that other people in another country will simply seek to benefit from their effort while doing nothing to stop their own spiralling emissions from inflicting damage on everyone. For these reasons it was realised as long as twenty years ago that the only way to deal with the threat from global warming was by all countries acting together in a collaborative and coordinated way through an international agreement. A cursory glance at the relevant news reports, however, will reveal that current negotiations around an international emissions reductions agreement appear to be bogged down. This is due, in part, to disagreements about how to share out those reductions - particularly between the developed North and the developing South, as we saw above.
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whereby the richer countries make legally binding reductions. The reality is that there is a lack of political will all around but particularly in the United States, where there are powerful political forces, including special interest groups (above all fossil fuel companies) opposed to any agreement and any action to limit emissions and the burning of fossil fuels. The result is that at the moment, not only is there a failure to reach a working agreement, but any agreement that looks likely to be reached falls far short of what we really need.
c/ Shortcomings and failures: where the international negotiating process has taken us so far
Some essential requisites of any effective agreement are not being met or are in serious doubt. Any effective agreement must have targets for how much we need to reduce emissions and how fast. Whilst we have said that no targets can now be said to be 100% safe there must be emissions reductions targets to shape policy (and make sure, for instance, we do not just have a showy initiative to reduce emissions in one sector while they increase outrageously in another) and those targets must be legally binding or compulsory in other words. Mere voluntary targets or pledges will never be sufficient given the urgency of the situation. No one country will be able to be confident than any other country is really serious unless the targets are binding and indeed unless they are effectively enforced. .This latter is a very considerable challenge in its own right. The targets must also be sufficiently in line with the science to give us a reasonable chance of avoiding the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. What that means is hotly disputed, but it is quite clear that the targets currently on offer fall well short of what we need especially in the light of the evolving science that highlights the need to avoid tipping points and the suggestion from Hansen and others that we need to reduce the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere to 350 parts per million at the most. But these are not the only ways that the kind of agreement currently on offer is both inadequate and in many ways, unjust. This is because the political forces and special interests we referred to above have essentially worked on two fronts, trying not only to block the UN talks completely but also to weaken them from within using their presence at the talks, and influence on politicians, to ensure that their financial interests come before the effectiveness of any solutions adopted so that the agreements reached are often watered down and full of loopholes - and also, in many cases, favour the rich at the expense of the poor. A typical case is offsetting whereby countries are allowed to pay other countries to reduce their emissions rather than reducing their own. This is supposed to add flexibility and be more economically efficient but actually it means that the high emitting, richer, countries can put off making the deeper systemic changes they really need to and offload the burden of cutting emissions onto poorer countries. In practice, the system is full of abuses, especially when offsetting is done via CDMs or Clean Development Mechanisms which mean that rather than simply burning less fossil fuels rich countries organise some project in a poorer country supposed to compensate like for instance the planting of a forest as a sink to soak up an equivalent amount of CO2 as the rich country has emitted through the continued burning of fossil fuels. The problem is that
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even if, say, this not a forest that might have been planted anyway, who knows whether the trees may not burn down, or decay from disease in the future thus releasing their carbon into the atmosphere? If temperatures continue to increase due to climate change then those trees may well end up being consumed in a forest fire. Trees, like all plants, exist as part of a cycle whereby they absorb carbon from the atmosphere and then release it back into the atmosphere when they burn or ultimately decay. The carbon in living vegetation is always never far from being converted into atmospheric CO2: it is no equivalent to the carbon that exists as coal or oil safely locked away in the earth for potentially millions of years. There can be all sorts of false accounting and perverse incentives involved in offsets and CDMs: old forest is actually cleared to plant new plantations or more factories to produce chlorofluorocarbons (gases that both destroy the ozone layer and cause global warming) are created in order to reap the subsidies available for destroying the chlorofluorocarbons they produce, and so on. The basic inescapable fact is that any treaty, or coordinated worldwide effort, to avoid catastrophic climate change must ensure that the vast majority of the remaining reserves of fossil fuels are left in the ground. Simple mathematics shows that if we burn the remaining reserves it will result in a concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide that amounts to global suicide. So no amount of clever measures will really be effective unless they result in keeping the vast majority of those remaining reserves mainly in fact coal - in the ground. (There is one minor caveat to this since fossil fuels could be burnt safely if the CO2 produced was reliably captured and then buried, itself it is arguable if this is really possible on a large scale but we will return to this below). Another set of problems and abuses is associated with carbon trading as introduced through the international negotiations. The way that the system works means that any company burning large quantities of fossil fuel is essentially rewarded with a right to emit CO2 that they can sell to other companies rather than being penalised relative to other, cleaner, companies from the start. In the EU carbon trading system the price for carbon has often been too low to seriously encourage anyone to burn less and there have been cases of downright fraud. There are those who would argue that any kind of carbon trading, involving in a sense the privatisation of the common good that is the atmosphere, is unacceptable and not the best way to reduce emissions: it is certainly the case that in the way it has been done so far there have been manifold abuses with a distinctly limited success in actually reducing emissions. Finally, about a quarter of all man-made emissions are a result of deforestation or other land use change. Forests are a huge repository of carbon and destroying them results in that carbon being released into the atmosphere. In many parts of Indonesia, not only are the forests burnt but also the peaty soil beneath them, releasing more carbon still. Indonesia ranks as the worlds third biggest CO2 emitter, mainly as a result of rampant deforestation. Deforestation in the Amazon exacerbates the drying out and increased incidence of fires anyway caused by climate change and a vicious circle is set up which, as we saw above, could lead to a climatetipping point if the forest dries out sufficiently for huge fires to take a hold. Consequently it has been recognised in the international negotiations that deforestation is a big
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problem that needs to be addressed but many of the proposed solutions (as outlined in the REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation policies) are hotly debated. The basic premise of REDD is to give standing forests a value and so reward their conservation thereby ending the situation where only their exploitation (for timber, clearance for agriculture etc) yields a financial return. The problem is that those who legally own the forests and who would be rewarded are often not those who actually live in them and who are best placed therefore to protect them in practice. Also the whole system is highly vulnerable to the corruption often endemic in the forest sector. A better approach might be to do more to empower those who live in forests to protect them and to reduce the demand and therefore patterns of consumption, in the richer developed countries, that are the real drivers of deforestation and destructive land use change. We will see below what this might mean in a UK context.
The Campaign against Climate Change is actively involved in working with others around the world to put pressure on politicians to reach such an agreement - in particular we are involved in organising a Global Day of Action (that includes a mass event in the UK) each year to demonstrate in as loud and visible a way as possible the global will for just and effective action to prevent catastrophic climate change. See www.globalclimatecampaign.org
Demonstrating for international action on climate change, Petite Mbau, Dakar, Senegal on the Global Day of Action, 6th December 2008
judgement about the practical and political feasibility of reducing emissions using efficiency measures and renewables alone (both at the national UK and international level). One limitation of the ZCB report is that, for the most part, it deals with the UK, as it were, in isolation. In fact one, even arguably the biggest, potential source of renewable energy might be concentrating solar power (using mirrors to concentrate sunlight to create heat) that could be imported from the hot, sunny, often desert regions, where it could potentially be developed on a scale sufficient to generate very large amounts of electricity. This would also require the development of a special electricity super-grid that uses high-voltage directcurrent so as not to lose too much of the electrical power when transmitting it over long distances. There is a plan for just that, called Desertec. It has the added advantage that it can overcome the problem of intermittence in, for example, wind power because as the wind slackens in one place electricity could be transmitted from some other place where the wind was still strong - and effectively all the intermittent sources in a very large area could be pooled to make the very best use of them by a large number of users. There is considerable debate around which are the best, most economic or most practicable of the new sources of energy that avoid or reduce the emission of CO2. But some new technologies proposed as solutions are clearly counter-productive or false solutions. Not only that, but they can also be unjust - that is favour the rich against the poor - and unjust solutions are another aspect of the climate justice issue, discussed above.
The worlds first commercial tidal stream generator Sea Gen at the Narrows of Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland. Sea Gen was developed by Marine Current Systems, Bristol.
rapeseed, palm oil, soy, sugar cane or jatropha for fuel on a massive scale. This is why we use the term agrofuels. The fact is that even when biofuels are produced from home-grown crops new full cycle studies suggest that in many cases more emissions are associated with their production than are produced by fossil fuels, due mainly to the nitrous oxide emissions from the fertilisers used in intensive agriculture. But this is far from being the biggest problem. Most agrofuels use imported raw materials and this has accelerated the expansion of intensive agriculture in many tropical regions which in turn has increased the rate of deforestation. Clearance for palm oil plantations is now the biggest driver behind deforestation in South East Asia and the rate of deforestation in the Amazon Basin has been shown to correlate directly with the price of soya. Demand for both palm oil and soya has rocketed due to their use as a biofuel. Even if agrofuels are produced from, say, certifiably sustainable rapeseed in Europe this can have knock-on effects it means there is less rapeseed available to produce cooking oils and foodstuffs and this results in a massively increased demand for Indonesian palm oil to fill the gap. The impact of biofuel production on deforestation, and other detrimental land use change, makes them fantastically counter-productive as a climate change solution. But not only are they counter-productive, they are also socially unjust. One could talk about the forced evacuations and other social ills that come with land clearance for intensive agriculture but the main problem is the fact that using crops for fuels means there are less available for food. The huge demand of rich countries for fuel to drive their cars around is put in direct competition with the need of people in poorer countries just to eat. Within five years half of the US maize harvest is expected to be burned in cars, further pushing up the global price of what is a staple food for hundreds of millions of people. We have seen already how direct climate change impacts, like floods and droughts, are effecting food production and pushing up prices now we can see how a false solution to climate change is making matters yet worse again. The basic problem with agrofuels and indeed with all forms of bio-energy (including biomass the burning of wood or other vegetation in solid form to create energy) is that to produce them on any significant scale you need a lot of land. And increased pressure on land is at the root of so many environmental problems. As we have seen land use change and deforestation are at the cause of perhaps a quarter of all carbon emissions. To a lesser or greater degree all forms of large-scale bio-energy are likely to feed into the pressures that are causing increased deforestation and other forms of land use change that release extra carbon from vegetation or soils. The large scale development of bioenergy that is production on anything more than a local level risks becoming a dangerous diversion of resources towards the creation of a commercial-industrial bandwagon that will end up creating more emissions than it saves due to its snowballing impact on ecosystems around the world..
c/ Patterns of consumption in the UK and their impact on ecosystems and emissions worldwide
But agrofuels, and other forms of bio-energy, are not the only source of increased pressure on land associated with the high consumption lifestyles of the richer Northern countries. This brings us back to the subject of food, once again. There are some who will say that to fight climate change we should become vegetarian and it is true that, all other things being equal,
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a vegetarian diet does cause less greenhouse gas emissions than a diet with a lot of meat. However, the factors that surround the emissions associated with food production are quite complex and varied including for instance how far the foodstuffs have been transported before they are consumed. What really stands out as a big factor in causing climate change is our system of industrial agriculture. The main factor here is not the methane emissions associated with livestock but rather the fact that we need to import large quantities of feedstock for the large quantities of livestock we are rearing intensively for meat production. This is what increases the pressure on land in other, mainly poorer, countries. It means increased importation of products like soy which is a big driver of deforestation in tropical countries. Changing ones personal eating habits may help a little but far more effective would be a basic change to our systems of agriculture coordinated at a national level by government. If we all end up eating less of the kind of products that are likely to cause environmental damage, compared to those that dont, then maybe that would only be fair enough. (and would effectively mean, amongst other things, that less meat would be being consumed). There are of course other products that we consume that have an impact on land use and deforestation around the world the many food products that use palm oil, for instance, or timber and wood-based products. These need to be controlled and regulated, even if we need to change the rules of international trade to do it (although this takes us back to the international level). Part of the problem is that to do this requires confronting the commercial interests involved. Agrofuels are not the only example of a false and/or unjust solution: we have already noted the counterproductive and unfair elements in the current negotiations for an international treaty. It is not surprising that in attempting to deal with the new, vast and unprecedented problem that is climate change people are scrabbling about to find anything that will work and often look for the easiest answers that may not, however, be the best ones. Added to that is the fact that all too often commercial interests, of the kind that often try to block any kind of action on climate change because they fear it might damage their profits, also tend to have an undue influence on the kind of solutions adopted. As a result those solutions risk ending up being the ones that allow some interest group to make a lot of money rather than actually dealing with the problem in the most efficient way. The commercial bandwagon that has built up behind agrofuels is a typical example
Geoengineering
Perhaps the ultimate hotly debated solution to climate change is geo-engineering. This means large scale artificial changes to our global environment to cool the planet down. These can take the form of projects designed to actually remove CO2 from the atmosphere but there are huge problems in doing this on a sufficient scale to be significant. More often geoengineering involves compensating for the warming effect of greenhouse gases by devising other, artificial, means of cooling the planet. Less feasible ideas include putting giant reflectors in space to reflect away a proportion of the suns incoming energy while more feasible examples include generating extra clouds to increase albedo and again reflect away the suns energy by spraying seawater into the atmosphere on a large scale. The most feasible method is probably to simply increase (in a more controlled and strategic way) what we are doing anyway, inadvertently, that is emitting sulphates into
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The problem with almost all of these is that, even if achievable, they are likely to have
the atmosphere and thereby causing global dimming - as we noted above. The problem with almost all of these is that, even if achievable, they are likely to have unpredictable and quite possibly dire, side-effects. The inadvertent production of sulphate aerosols, for instance, has already been implicated in causing the changes in rainfall patterns responsible for the Ethiopian famine of the 1980s. Unfortunately we have only one planet to experiment on. What is almost certain is that the prospect of a geoengineering solution is likely to be used as an excuse, by those who want to carry on (making money out of) emitting CO2, to do so. What is also highly probable is that as with agrofuels a commercial bandwagon will build up behind whatever geoengineering solution, or solutions, are chosen so that the decision making process will be dominated by the commercial interests involved rather than the dispassionate pursuit of a rational solution to the problem in hand. Given that, as we have seen, we are dealing with something likely to have huge and dire side effects then that is a frightening prospect. The strongest argument for at least researching geoengineering is that we should try to make sure we have at least one weapon in our arsenal as a last resort if there is a complete failure to reduce emissions sufficiently and in time. In particular we might regard it as a stopgap to allow us to clear the hurdle of the warming spike that we might need to, to escape the global dimming trap (see above). What is certain, here, is that any intelligent use of geoengineering would be combined with and not instead of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. It might conceivably be a stopgap to give us time to get to the root of the problem, namely the excessive concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Some techniques might actually help us reduce that concentration but it would be insane not to apply the obvious solution of ceasing to put carbon into the atmosphere before devising difficult and costly methods to take it out again. What is certain, again, is that the more we can do to get to the root of the problem directly, applying the obvious and sensible solution of reducing greenhouse gases, and the less we are forced to do by the more dangerous, uncertain, and indirect methods of geoengineering then the better.
It is however no more than a promise written into legislation and it needs the right policies to secure the emission cuts it promises. Many would argue we do not yet have those just a recession, the fortuitous and temporary by-product of which has been a decrease in the rate of emissions. Second, it does not cover what we have just noted above in terms of the UKs impact on other countries through increasing the demand for products that cause deforestation or other emissions-increasing land use change. It has not, for instance, stopped us pursuing the seriously counterproductive solution of agrofuels, whilst our use of biomass for power generation is set to increase dramatically. Third, (something we discussed above in the Climate Justice section) it does not take into account the emissions that go into making, and transporting, the vast quantity of consumer goods that we import (not balanced by our exports). Taking these into account dramatically increases the carbon footprint of UK consumers and the nation as a whole. They have increased dramatically in recent years, more than cancelling out any apparent decline in emissions. Fourth, in the light of the latest science the target itself is not sufficient in particular it is too distant a target when we need to reduce emissions very rapidly straight away. One might add fifth, that ultimately what we do is only really effective in so far as it affects others and gives a lead. To do that, to have an impact on the wider global community, we need to be taking really bold, conspicuous action on a scale that we are not, now.
f/ Doing very big things very quickly the whole of society acting together
It is clear, then, that whatever the precise methods adopted, given the scale of the threat we face we need to do very big things very quickly. At this point we can refer back to the section on positive feedbacks and tipping points and remind ourselves of the extreme uncertainty and urgency of our current situation. All this means there is an overwhelming need to do as much as we can NOW. This is why a target set for 2050 is inadequate and we need to be thinking of short term targets of, say, 10% cuts per year. Anything we do this year is worth twice as much as doing the same thing next year. An emission cut in ten years means ten years worth more emissions into the atmosphere more than if we make that cut this year. Of course this is true at every level global, national, local and all. Securing real effective action in the short term ideally crash programs of emissions reductions or decarbonisation are more important than ambitious programs for the more distant future. The fact is that by the time that future arrives the situation may have changed dramatically and we will have to adapt to a whole new set of circumstances. The only thing we can be sure of is that the adaptations we have to make then will be all the more drastic and traumatic in proportion to how little we manage to achieve now. The best way to achieve the great transformations necessary to create a low or zero carbon economy within a very short period of time is by the whole of society acting together through government. Just encouraging people to drive their cars less, fly less, insulate their homes more, use less energy, and so on is not enough. Asking people not to fly, or fly less, will not work: an air-passenger tax, for instance, or a ban on domestic flights, might. Whilst we should welcome every spontaneous effort we should not expect, and it is not fair to expect, the virtuous who are prepared to alter their lifestyles, to bail out the rest of us who are not. We should have the courage to take collective decisions as a society acting together.
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When enemy submarines were sinking British ships and threatening food shortages in the 1940s, the government did not say to people please dont eat too much: rather there was rationing which was quite tough but effective and fair to everyone. We are in at least as much peril now and our best way out of that peril is for the government and all those in positions of power and influence to take a bold lead and coordinate collective action. At the national level this means crash programs, ambitious and radical forward thinking with the goal of achieving a low carbon economy quickly clearly established as the first priority for government across all departments. Half hearted measures, muddled policy, short term thinking and tinkering at the edges will not do. An example of the kind of thinking we should be adopting is provided by the Zero Carbon 2030 report that we have already mentioned. It combines an ambitious target with a willingness to think outside the box, and well ahead, with solutions that are thoughtfully integrated together to give a coherent plan to achieve the desired result (in this case a zero carbon economy for the UK by 2030). As a revolutionary research enterprise its unlikely it gets everything right but its the kind of bold, comprehensive and integrated plan that we need. It will be far more effective and quicker to progress through policies coordinated at the national level than to expect communities or companies to power down, one by one, or for individuals to change their lifestyles, one by one, converting others to do the same by their example. Top-down and coordinated from the highest level possible ideally the highest possible, the international level is much the best way to deal with the imminent global threat of global warming. But having said, that we know that the international negotiations for a climate treaty are currently deeply bogged down and that politicians, for example, can all too often be corrupt at worse, or otherwise short sighted and selfishly concerned with their own electoral fortunes. In any case, right now they are just not offering the kind of leadership we really need. Given that is the case then clearly every little thing that we can achieve at community, or individual level, in this desperate struggle to avert a global catastrophe, is well worth it and may help to create an atmosphere in which progress coordinated at a higher level is more likely to be achieved. But we cannot afford to ignore the political process. However much we may despise politicians (rightly or wrongly) we must hold them to account and make the political process, or at least make a political process, work for us so that we can get the kind of action coordinated at the national and ultimately international level that we really need.
levels of investment, even at the cost of high short term debt. It has often involved a concerted effort by society acting together through government, as was the case with the famous New Deal of President F D Roosevelt, in the US. In part this works because a high level of unemployed people is always a big drag on any economy and ensuring higher levels of employment can both help to kick start a sluggish economy as well as, potentially in due course, repay the debt incurred in measures to achieve it. This is to just touch on a big economic Installing solar panels discussion but whilst many of the implications of a concerted effort to reduce emissions may be regarded by many as negative (with constraints upon high-energy, high-consuming lifestyles) there is no doubt that the massive effort required to effect a green revolution of the economy would require a very large number of people to bring it about: it would mean a large number of new jobs in what has been called a Green New Deal. Just how these green or Climate Jobs (that is jobs that genuinely have the effect of reducing emissions) might be created has been outlined in the CCC pamphlet One Million Climate Jobs Now!. See www.climate-change-jobs.org/ Historical parallels are never perfect but, for inspiration, we can look at the way countries like the US transformed their economies at very great speed, turning truck factories into tank factories in months, during the Second World War. (One need not even think how the Soviet Union did the same kind of thing while moving much of its industry East of the Urals!). The concerted national effort that was made by the UK at that time shows how little real action there has been in recent years, when measured against politicians rhetoric about climate change being the greatest threat that we (and the whole world) face. Reaching the targets established by the Climate Act is predicted to cost about 1% of GDP. During the last two great national emergencies, the world wars of the last century, the government increased its spending from around ten to 40 or 50 per cent of GDP, implying that as a nation we spent roughly 30 or 40 per cent of GDP on fighting those wars. That is the kind of response a real national emergency requires and it is not what we are seeing now. It was in fact the response to an external threat that finally galvanized the economies of nations like the UK and US and finally, definitively, pulled them out of the 1930s recession. We can expect the same kind of thing to happen once there is a really concerted response to the threat of the catastrophic destabilisation of global climate. The quasi-science of economics is merely a set of generalisations which if they are meaningful at all are rooted in human behaviour: the infusion of urgency and determination into any group of people to rally towards a common goal has an economic dimension and an economic impact.
h/ Climate Emergency
Of course to achieve this we need a real sense of urgency about the reality of the climate threat to be diffused through society through accurate readily available information and through those in positions of power and influence, in politics or the media for instance, giving the kind
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of clear bold lead that they are not giving now. We should have a leaflet about the climate threat in every home, regular features on TV that explain it, and billboards that remind us about it. We should be doing all the easy things we can do straight away to reduce emissions like reducing the speed limit to 55 mph and banning domestic flights. These would have the added benefit of demonstrating with concrete measures, rather than words, that the government is treating the climate threat as an emergency and that we are in a situation of emergency, a global emergency. Climate Emergency protest outside
Parliament, July 2009
The Campaign against Climate Change brings people together to push for the urgent and resolute action we need to prevent the catastrophic destabilisation of global climate. Help us campaign for stronger action on climate change within the UK and worldwide. Join us, volunteer your time or donate much needed money at: www.campaigncc.org [email protected] 02078339311
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Climate Code Red (CCR) David Spratt & Philip Sutton, Scribe 2008 http://www.climatecodered.net/ Climate Safety Report (CSR), Public Interest Research Centre (PIRC), http://climatesafety.org/downloads/ Recommended websites : Real Climate (RC) http://www.realclimate.org/ James Hansen / Columbia University http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/ Skeptical Science (SkS) http://www.skepticalscience.com/ Climate Safety (blog) (CS) http://climatesafety.org/ SourceWatch (SW) http://www.sourcewatch.org/ Desmogblog http://www.desmogblog.com/ References
You should be able to find below not only references to support the statements made in the text but also an introduction to further reading around each topic most of it instantly accessible on the internet. To check for references that support specific statements in the text find the reference section that corresponds with the relevant section of the text and then look for a topic heading (in bold) that most closely matches the topic of the relevant statement (eg 2. f/ Himlayan glacier melt). Altogether it may seem like a lot of reading, and some of may duplicate or cover the same ground from different angles - but at the same time its a small selection of whats out there and much good and important work has undoubtably been overlooked. Abbreviations:
AAAS American Association for the Advancement of Science | BG Business Green |CCR Climate Code Red see recommended reading | CI Climate Institute | CP Climate Progress | CSR Climate Safety Report | ERW EnvironmentResearchWeb | G The Guardian | Indy The Independent | NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration | NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | OSS OSS Foundation | PLA Parliamentary Library, Australia | PC Pew Centre on Global Climate Change | PIRC Public Interest Research Centre | PIRIC Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research | RC Real Climate | SA Scientific American | SC Solve Climate News | SD Science Daily | SkS Skeptical Science | SM, NAS Science Museum, National Academy of Sciences | SOMG see recommended reading | SW Source Watch | References to Figures Figure 1. FAQ 1.3, Figure 1. An idealised model of the natural greenhouse effect. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-1-3.html Figure 2 Growth in Carbon Dioxide concentrations, Climate Crisis, a briefing, Simon Retallack 2001 Figure 3. Average global surface temperature based on instrumental measurements (Adapted from Brohan et al. 2006) http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/printer_1000article_10008928.shtml Figure 4. SEED Science, Global Climate Change and Energy: CO2 and Temperature Change. https://www.planetseed.com/node/15234 Figure 5 Interactive Oceans, Centre for Environmental Visualisation, http://www.ooi.washington.edu/story/Energy Figure 6. (adapted) http://geo-engineering.blogspot.com/2011/01/2011-starts-with-lowest-arctic-sea-ice.html Figure 7. Figure 24: Cumulative per capita carbon dioxide emissions, with countries listed in the order of national cumulative emissions, Updated Figures. Makiko Sato & James Hansen, Updating the Climate Science: What Path is the Real World Following? http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/UpdatedFigures/
References to Part (1) The Ozone Hole: general explanation The Ozone Hole Inc http://www.theozonehole.com/twenty.htm | CIESIN thematic guides http://www.ciesin.org/TG/OZ/oz-home.html | US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ozone Hole Watch http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/facts/hole.htm | CFCs http://www.ciesin.org/TG/OZ/cfcozn.html | http://www.theozonehole.com /cfc.htm | Montreal Protocol Handbook for the Montreal Protocol, 7th Ed (2006). Ozone Secretariat, UNEP. http://ozone .unep.org/Publications/MP_Handbook/| Success of the protocol: Whatever happened to the Ozone Hole ? Brian Handwerk, National Geographic 2010 http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/05/100505-science-environment-ozone-hole-25-years/ | The Greenhouse effect BBC http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/sci_nat/04/climate_change/html/greenhouse.stm | Earthguide http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/earthguide/diagrams/greenhouse/ | Science Museum, National Academy of Sciences (SM, NAS) http://www.koshland-science-museum.org/exhibitgcc/greenhouse01.jsp?gclid=CJbrrJvtxqgCFUtC4QodlCfQog | Parliamentary Library, Australia (PLA) http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/climatechange/theBasic/theGreenhouse.htm | Greenhouse gases
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BBC http://www.bbc.co.uk/climate/evidence/greenhouse_gases.shtml | Physical Geography.net http://www.physicalgeography. net /fundamentals/7h.html | Encyclopedia of Earth http://www.eoearth.org/article/Greenhouse_gas?topic=49554 Fossil fuels and the rise in CO2 Real Climate (RC) http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/how-do-we-knowthat-recent-cosub2sub-increases-are-due-to-human-activities-updated/ | Ice cores BBC http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/531 4592.stm | SM, NAS http://www.koshland-science-museum.org/exhibitgcc/historical10.jsp | detailed NASA http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov /Features/Paleoclimatology_IceCores/ | Rise in temperature NASA http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2010-warmest-year.html | detailed US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2010/13 | 2010 warmest year ever World Metereological Organisation (WMO) http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_release /pr_906_en.html | CO2 and temperature https://www.planetseed.com/node/15234 (as Figure) | Ice ages James Hansen, Storms of my Grandchildren, Bloomsbury 2009, Ch 3 especially pp 36-50 | Milankovitch cycles: Climate Data Information http://www.climatedata.info/Forcing/Forcing/milankovitchcycles.html | NOAA What caused ice ages? http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/pd/climate/factsheets/whatcause.pdf | 1850 billion tons CO2 Climate change: evidence from the geological record, The Geological Society, November, 2010 | http://www. geolsoc.org.uk/climatechange |
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a) Sea level rise Climate Institute (CI) http://www.climate.org/topics/sea-level/index.html#sealevelrise | accelerating BBC http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4651876.stm | underestimated BBC http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6179409.stm | Australian Academy of Science. http://www.science.org.au/nova/082/082key.htm | US coastal US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/coastal/index.html#sea | The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) & Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC) http://www.cmar.csiro.au /sealevel/ | Climate Code Red (CCR) David Spratt & Philip Sutton, Scribe 2008, Ch.4 A Rising Tide | Vulnerable regions map Global Warming Art http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/File:Global_Sea_Level_Rise_Risks_png | Ocean Acidification BBC http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7933589.stm | CI http://www.climate.org/topics/sea-level/index.html#acidification | APL http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/climatechange/theclimate/oceans.htm | UNESCO press release 2009 http://www.oceanacidification.net/Symposium2008/UNESCO_PressRel_en.pdf | International Science Symposium http://www.oceanacidification.net/ | UK Ocean Acidification Research Program http://www.oceanacidification.org.uk/ | Plankton decline Scientific American (SA) | http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=phytoplankton-population b) Weather and climate National Centre for Atmospheris Research http://eo.ucar.edu/basics/index.html | NASA http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/noaa-n/climate/climate_weather.html | Hansen p.170 | Localised cooling: maps of temperature anomalies 1) Met Office http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2011/01/20/2010-a-near-record-year/ | 2) Chris Beales http://www.chrisbeales.net /environment/about%20climate%20change_the%20cold%20winter.html | James Hansen, Reto Ruedy, Makiko Sato, Ken Lo If its that warm, how come its so darn cold ? http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2010/20100127_ TemperatureFinal.pdf | Detailed reasons for localised cooling in Europe, US Science Daily (SD) June 2010 http://www. sciencedail y.com/ releases/2010/06/100611093710.htm | SD Nov 2010 http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/11 /101117114028.htm | c) Weather disasters APL http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/climatechange/theclimate/moreextreme.htm | Technical Climate Extremes: Observations, Modelling and Impacts David R. Easterling, et al, Science http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/clivac/classes/ Tropical_meteorology/classes_ucsb/climate_change/articles_climate_change_tropics/Easterling_et_al_2000%20extreme%20events .pdf | Impacts on poor CAFOD http://www.cafod.org.uk/about-us/what-we-do/climate-change | UNFCCC http://unfccc.int/essential_background/feeling_the_heat/items/2904.php d) Impacts on ecosystems WWF http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/problems/impacts/ | SM, NAS http://www.koshland-science-museum.org/exhibitgcc/impacts10.jsp | Earthwatch Institute Climate Change: the impact on biodiversity http://www.earthwatch.org/europe/downloads/Get_Involved/ClimateChange2.pdf | in the UK UK Parliamentary Office http://www.parliament.uk/documents/post/postpn341.pdf | technical Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCCC) http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/technical-papers/climate-changes-biodiversity-en.pdf | Climate Safety Report (CSR) , Public Interest Research Centre (PIRC), 2008 p.13 | Amazon rainforest dry out Drought hits 1) Climate Progress (CP), Simon Lewis http://climateprogress .org/2010/11/26/another-extreme-drought-hits-the-amazon-raising-climate-change-concerns/ | 2) Nature, http://www.nature .com/news/2010/101029/full/news.2010.571.html | CCR Ch 6, pp 61-4 | WWF http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/where_we_work/amazon/problems/climate_change_amazon/ | Desertification APL http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/climatechange /theclimate/desertification.htm | Fauna moving APL http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/climatechange/theclimate/animal.htm | Phenology World Resources Institute http://earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/328 | Extinctions BBC http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3375447.stm e) Human impacts: Climate and Conflict Sudan: Science and Development Network. 2007 UNEP report. http://www.scidev.net/en/news/unep-climate-change-behind-darfur-conflict.html | Arab World Unrest NPR (US) http://humanosphere.kplu.org/2011/02/unrest-in-egypt-is-also-about-food-which-is-about-climate-change/ | Global Warming and the Arab Spring Sarah Johnstone and Jeffrey Mazo http://www.collide-a-scape.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/recentessay.pdf | Prince Arthur Herald http://princearthurherald.com/archives/4421 | FoodandDrinkEurope.com http://www.foodanddrinkeurope.com/Financial/Arab-Revolt-underlines-the-need-for-action-to-remedy-high-food-prices |
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f) Escalating Crises Agriculture Voice of America http://www.voanews.com/english/news/environment/Climate-Change-AlreadyReducing-Crop-Yields-121412889.html | crop failures American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) EurkAlert http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2010-10/uol-cfs100710.php | Himalayan Glacier Melt Indian Muslim News http://www.indianmuslims.info/new/2008/feb/06/two_billion_face_water_famine_himalayan_glaciers_melt.html | Guardian (G), Asia Society http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/video/2010/dec/02/climate-change-glaciers | The melting Himalayas: Cascading effects of Climate Change on Water, Biodiversity and Livelihoods Conservation Biology 23, No.3, 2009 | http:// academic.regis.edu/ckleier/Conservation%20Biology/Melting_Himalaya.pdf | CCR pp 101-2 | Retreating the Himalayas Glaciers: Alarming Situation in Nepal Rajesh Rai, Forestry Nepal http://www.forestrynepal.org/images/Retreating%20the%20Himalays% 20Glaciers%20Alarming%20Situation%20in%20Nepal.pdf | Climate Security Project (CSP), Friends of the Earth/Voters for Peace (US) http://www.globalclimatesecurity.org/reports/us/epi_3_20_08 | Climate Change and conflict CSP http://www.globalclimate security.org/news/wired/6_23_08, http://www.globalclimatesecurity.org/reports/us/cna_2007 | US Institute of Public Research and Centre for Naval Analyses (CNA) National Security and the threat of Climate Change http://securityandclimate.cna.org /report/SecurityandClimate_Final.pdf | Pentagon Report 1) G http://www.guardian.co.uk/ environment/2004/feb/22/usnews.theobserver 2) CI http://www.climate.org/topics/climate-change/pentagon-study-climatechange.html | Food prices Paul Krugman, New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/07/opinion/07krugman.html?_r=1 | Wipe out billions Kevin Anderson, Tyndall Centre 29/11/09 http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Warming-will-39wipe-outbillions39.5867379.jp | g) Abrupt changes NOAA A Paleo Perspective on Abrupt Climate Change http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/abrupt/data.html | SD http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080619142112.htm | Chicago Chronicle http://chronicle.uchicago.edu/ 030417 /paleoclimate.shtml | Thermohaline Circulation APL http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs /climatechange/theclimate /ocean Circulations.htm | Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIRIC) http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/thc_fact _shee t.html | National Earth Science Teachers Association http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/polar/icemelt_oceancirc.html| The Day After Tomorrow: Could it really happen? Weather Underground http://www.wunderground.com/resources/education/ thedayafter.asp | Venus Syndrome SOMG Ch 10, pp 223 - 236 | Commentary 1) Professor Barry Brook, Director of Climate Science, The Environment Institute, University of Adelaide. http://bravenewclimate.com/2010/05/09/clarons-despair/ | 2) Milan Ilnyckyj http://www.sindark.com/2010/02/04/is-runaway-climate-change-possible-hansens-take/
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a) Rapid, Non-linear IPCC Workshop http://www.knmi.nl/~weber/ipcc.html | Abrupt Change, Stefan Rahmstorf, PICIR http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Book_chapters/abrupt.pdf | Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, 2008 Tipping Points for Abrupt Climate Change http://www.climatechangeinsights.com/uploads/file /IGSD%20 October%202008%20Climate%20Briefing.pdf | Positive feedbacks NOAA http://www.ncdc. noaa.gov/paleo/abrupt/story2.html | b) Amazon rainforest feedback A Drying Amazon Could Speed Climate Change NPR 2009. http://www.npr.org/templates /story/story.php?storyId=101422948 | Faces catastrophe People and Planet 2002 http://www.peopleandplanet.net/?lid =27417&topic=27§ion=32 | Hansen p.120 | Weakening sinks G Trees absorbing less CO2 as world warms, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jan/03/climatechange.carbonemissions | SD 2009 Oceans Less Effective at Absorbing Carbon Dioxide Emitted By Human Activity http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02 /090216092937.htm | c) Albedo effect: UNEP,.GRID-Arendal, http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/climate-change-ice-and-snow-and-the-albedo-effect | Universe Today http://www.universetoday.com/39937/albedo-effect/ | Greenland EnvironmentalResearchWeb (UK) http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/44896 | Climate Safety Report (CSR) , Public Interest Research Centre, 2008 p8 | SOMG p 42 | WWF http://www.coolemotion.org/wwf.html d) Methane from permafrost: Terra Nature.(New Zealand) 2006. http://www.terranature.org/methanesiberia.htm | SC, Laura Shin, http://solveclimate.com/news/20090702/thawing-permafrost-could-emit-massive-amounts-greenhouse-gases | 4ecotips http://www.4ecotips.com/eco/article_show.php?aid=1640&id=287 | G 2005 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen/2005t /aug/11/science.climatechange1 | G 2010 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/14/arctic-permafrost-methane BBC 2006 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/5321046.stm | SA 2009 http://www.scientificamerican.com /article.cfm?id= methane-a-menace-surfaces e) Methane hydrates Methane Time Bomb 1) The Independent, 2008. Steve Connor, http://www.independent.co.uk/environment /climate-change/exclusive-the-methane-time-bomb-938932.html | 2) Climate Avenue http://www.climateavenue.com/methane. clath.htm | 3) Yale Environment 360, 2008, Susan Q Stranahan http://e360.yale.edu/feature/melting_arctic_ocean_ raises_ threat_of_methane_time_bomb/2081/ | SOMG, Pp. 159-64, 160, 235-6 | RC 2005 Methane hydrates and global warming http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/12/methane-hydrates-and-global-warming/ | CP 2011 http://climate progress.org/2011/04/25/methane-hydrate-feedback/ | The Threat of Methane Release from Permafrost and Clathrates: How important is hydroxyl depletion? Sam Carana http://knol.google.com/k/the-threat-of-methane-release-from-permafrost-andclathrates# Extinction Events Abrupt Climate Change and Extinction Events in Earth History T.J Crowley and G.R North http://geotest.tamu.edu/userfiles/88/abrupt_climate_change_1988.pdf | 636 milion years ago SD http://www.sciencedaily.com /releases/2008/05/080528140255.htm | End-Permian Hansen pp 147-51, 153 | New Scientist 178, 2003, Michael Benton., http://palaeo.gly.bris.ac.uk/Essays/wipeout/default.html | BBC 2002 The day the earth nearly died http://www.bbc.co.uk/ science/horizon/2002/dayearthdied.shtml | BBC 2005 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4184110.stm | When Life nearly died Michael Benton, Thames and Hudson 2003 | Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) British Geological Survey.
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http://www.bgs.ac.uk/research/climatechange/palaeo/PETM.html | Geological Society of America, 2002 http://geology .geoscienceworld.org/cgi/content/abstract/30/12/1067 | NASA, Gavin Schmidt, 2003 http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs /schmidt_02/ | SOMG, 150, 161-64 f) CCR Ch 23 pp 222-9, What does an emergency look like ?
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d) Climate Denial David Suzuki Foundation http://www.davidsuzuki.org/issues/climate-change/science/climate-change-basicsc li mate-change-deniers/index.php | Climate Change Denial: Heads in the Sand Haydn Washington and John Cook, pub Earthscan | Fossil Fuel lobby Centre for Responsive Politics Fueling Washington: How Oil Money Drives Politics http://www.opensecrets .org/news/oil&gas.php | summary in Desmogblog http://www.desmogblog.com/oil-gas-industries-spent-record-175 -millionlobbying-against-climate-action | Oil Change International 1) http://priceofoil.org/2009/05/13/fossil-fuel-lobby%E2%80%99s-45million-propaganda-campaign/ | 2) http://dirtyenergymoney.com/ | SOMG 185-6 | Independent Australia http://www. independentaustralia.net/2011/politics/the-liberal-party-receives-millions-from-fossil-fuel-lobby/ Cf Tobacco lobby Interpress Service, Stephen Leahy, Fossil Fuel Lobby Following the Playbook of Big Tobacco http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=54690 | George Monbiot, Heat: How to stop the planet burning Allen Lane 2006 extract in G http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen t/2006 /sep/19 /ethicalliving.g2 | e) Climate Denial Machine Greenpeace Dealing in doubt: The climate denial industry and climate science http://www. greenpeace .org/raw/content/international/press/reports/dealing-in-doubt.pdf | Corporate front groups Sharon Beder, Ecological Double Agents, Australian Science 19 , 1998, pp 19-22 http://www.herinst.org/sbeder/PR/agents.html | ExxonMobil Greenpeace http://www.exxonsecrets.org/maps.php | Peabody Energy: SourceWatch (SW) http://www.sourcewatch.org /index.php?title=Peabody_Energy | Koch Brothers Greenpeace Koch Industries: Secretly Funding the Climate Denial Machine. http://www.greenpeace.org /kochindustries | New Yorker, Jane Mayer Covert Operations: the billionaire brothers who are waging a war against Obama http://www.newyorker.com/ reporting/2010/08/30/100830fa_fact_mayer?currentPage=all | Centre for American Progress The Koch Brothers: What you need to know about the Financiers of the radical Right http://www.american progressaction.org/issues/2011/04/pdf/koch_brothers.pdf | Competitive Enterprise Institute: SW http://www.sourcewatch .org/index.php?title=Competitive_Enterprise_Institute | Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow: SW http://www.sourcewatch .org/index.php?title=Committee_For_A_Constructive_Tomorrow | Global Warming Policy Foundation SW http://www. sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Global_Warming_Policy_Foundation | Left Foot Forward http://www.leftfootforward. org/2009/11/oil-links-of-tory-climate-denial-grandees/ | International Policy Network (IPN) SW http://www.sourcewatch.org /index.php?title=International_Policy_Network | f) University of East Anglia leaked emails PIRC, ClimateGate: A Briefer, http://climatesafety.org/climategate-a-briefer/ | G 2009 http://www. guardian.co.uk/ environment t/2009/nov/20/climate-sceptics-hackers-leaked-emails | G 2010 http://www .guardian. co.uk /environment /2010/nov/14/climate-change-science-email-scandal | BBC 2009 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england /norfolk/8374721.stm | BBC 2010 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/norfolk/8494497.stm | Exonerated Pew Centre on Global Climate Change (PC) http://www.pewclimate.org/blog/gulledgej/climategate-scientists-exonerated | g) Media SDRoll of mass media in climate change scepticism http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/02/100222140619.htm | Science Direct, Climate change and journalistic norms: A case-study of US mass-media coverage Maxwell T. Boykov, Jules M. Boykov http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/publications/downloads/boykoff07-geoforum.pdf | Fox News G Fox News chief enforced climate change scepticism http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2010/dec/15/fox-news-climate-change-email | US media bias Media Matters http://mediamatters.org/research/201106070010 | Daily Mail Skeptical Science (SkS) http://www.skepticalscience.com/news. php?n=141 | RC http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/02/daily-mangle/ | Deltoid, Tim Lambert http://science blogs. com/deltoid/2010/01/rosegate_scandal_grows.php | Charles Johnson http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/35781_The_ Daily_Mails_Latest_Lie_About_Climate_Change | Daily Express Jan 27 2010 http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/154428/ Global-Warming-What-a-climate-con- | 15 Dec 2009 http://www.dailyexpress. co.uk/posts/view/146139 | Sunday Times RC retraction on Amazongate http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives /2010/06/leakegate-a-retraction/ | Guardian UAE response http://www.uea.ac.uk/mac/comm/media/press/CRUstatements /guardianstatement | BBC failure on impartiality http://www.monbiot.com/2006/09/26/whos-paying/ | h) Climate Sceptics debunked Campaign against Climate Change http://www.campaigncc.org/sceptics | SkS http://www.skeptical science.com/argument.php | New Scientist http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11462 | RC http://www.realclimate.org /index.php/archives/2004/12/index/#Responses | OSS Foundation (OSS) http://www.ossfoundation us/projects/environment/global-warming/myths | Mike Kaulbars, Greenfyre Climate denial Crock of the week http://greenfyre. wordpress.com/climate-denial-crock-of-the-week/#gobal CO2 is not a pollutant OSS http://ossfoundation.us/projects /environment/global-warming/myths/co2-is-not-a-pollutant | Medieval warming SkS http://www.skepticalscience.com/medievalwarm-period.htm | Coby Beck http://scienceblogs.com/illconsidered/2006/02/medieval-warm-period-was-just-as-warm.php | Not warmed since 1998 SkS http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998.htm | El Nino About.com http://environment.about.com/ od/globalwarming/a/elninolanina.htm | NOAA http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/el-ninostory.html | APL http://www. aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rn/1997-98/98rn09.htm | RC http://www.realclimate.org/index .php /archives/2006/05/el-nino-global-warming/ | Indy 2009 http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/new-el-ni241othreatens-world-with-weather-woe-1766555.html | Bjorn Lomborg SW http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Bjorn_ Lomborg | Kare Fog http://www.lomborg-errors.dk/
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Global Dimming BBC Horizon:2005 http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_prog_summary.shtml | Webschool.org http://www.webschool.org.uk/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=175 | Met Office http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-change/guide/science/explained/dimming | Spencer Weart http://www.aip.org/history/ climate/aerosol.htm#L_M016 | CSR p.18 | Black Carbon Solve Climate News (SC) http://solveclimate.com/news/ 20090429/arctic-nations-order-investigation-black-carbon-blamed-significant-ice-melt | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA http://www.pnas.org/content/101/2/423.long | Stanford University News http://news.stanford.edu/news /2010/july/soot-emissions-ice-072810.html | PC http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/blackcarbon-factsheet | decreases with altitude Environment ResearchWeb (ERW) http://environment alresearchweb.org/cws/article/yournews/45801 i) Scientific consensus American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) http://www.sciencemag. org/content/ 306/5702/1686.full | Union of Concerned Scientists http://www.ucsusa.org/ssi/climate-change/scientific-consensus-on.html | Balance as bias http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=1978
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a-b) Direction of debate/overoptimism Spencer Weart http://www.aip.org/history/climate/timeline.htm | San Francisco Chronicle 2001 http://articles.sfgate.com/2001-06-07/news/17606022_1_greenhouse-gases-greenhouse-gas-emissions-warming | ZDNet 2009 http://www.zdnet.com/blog/green/climate-scientists-saying-global-warming-trend-is-worsening/8887 | Climate Ark 2009 http://www.climateark.org/blog/2009/02/climate-change-risk-underestim.asp | National Wildlife Federation http://www.nwf.org/Global-Warming/What-is-Global-Warming/Global-Warming-is-Accelerating.aspx | Mother Earth Journal 2010, Terri Hansen, http://mother-earth-journal.com/2010/03/20/uns-ipcc-underestimated-climate-change-impacts-experts-say/ | Global Warming Forecasts http://www.global-warming-forecasts.com/underestimates.php | Sea level rise faster than IPCC, CP 2011 http://climateprogress.org/2011/05/04/arctic-assessment-sea-level-rise/#more-48192 | CSR pp.11-12, 13, 14-17 | Paleoclimate implications for Human-Made Climate Change James E Hansen, Makiko Sato. http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings /2011/20 1 10118_MilankovicPaper.pdf | CCR Ch 10 pp 89-98 Target 2 degrees, pp 133-4, Ch 17, 152-60 When reasonable is not enough | c) IPCC http://www.ipcc.ch/ | UNFCCC http://unfccc.int/2860.php | Rio Earth Summit http://www.un.org/geninfo/bp/enviro.html | Kyoto Protocol http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php | CCR Ch 7, pp 65-71 The Price of Reticence | d) Ice Loss APL http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/climatechange/theclimate/glaciers.htm | Record 2007 NASA http://earth observatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8074 | refined estimate BBC 2011 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-1300 2706 | Agence France Presse 2010 http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hm cVrXpPqxcj7DuOr8gxvYAZ bSg | Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic | http://amap.no/swipa/SWIPA2011 ExecutiveSummaryV1.pdf | CCR Ch 1, pp 1-19, Losing the Arctic Sea Ice | e) 350 SOMG pp140-171 Ch 8 | Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim? Hansen et al http://www.columbia. edu/~jeh1/2008/TargetCO2_20080407.pdf | http://www.350.org/en/about/science | 350.org http://www.350.org | CSR 300 ppm target pp 2-3, window of opportunity p 20 | CCR pp 122-25 | James Hansen NASA http://www.giss.nasa.gov/staff/jhansen.html |
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a) Climate Justice Global Issues, Anup Shah http://www.globalissues.org/article/231/climate-justice-and-equity | Mary Robinson Foundation http://www.mrfcj.org/about?gclid=CO2tmsfZ1qgCFUYPfAodJXGogw | IPCC report 2007 Environment News Service http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/apr2007/2007-04-06-01.asp | Debate Debatepedia http://debatepedia.idebate.org/en/index. php/Debate:_Developed_countries_have_a_higher_obligation_to_combat_climate_change | campaigns http://www.Climatejustice online.org/ | Friends of the Earth International http://www.foei.org/en/resources/publications/climate-justice-and-energy/20002007/climatedebt.pdf | Bangladesh Golam Mostofa, Climate Frontlines: Impacts of climate change in Bangladesh. 2009 http://www.climatefrontlines.org/?q=en-GB/node/426 | US National Broadcasting Company (NBC) http://worldblog.msnbc .msn.com/_news/2009/12/07/4376387-in-bangladesh-climate-change-is-a-matter-of-life-and-death | African Sahel BBC 2005 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4479640.stm | IRIN, Jan Egeland http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?ReportID=78524 | Environmental Geoscience, Robert Stewart, http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/environment-book/desertificationinsahel.html | Security implications Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) http://www.oecd.org/documen t/57/0,3746,en_38233741_38246823_43345721_1_1_1_1,00.html | Responsibility Pew Charitable Trusts 2007 Taking Responsibility: Why the United States Must Lead the World in Reducing Global Warming Pollution. http://www.pewtrusts .org/our_work_report_detail.aspx?id=32716 | Imports and consumption G 2011 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment /datablog/2011/apr/28/carbon-emissions-imports-exports-trade | G 2011 Andrew Simms http://www.guardian.co.uk/ commentisfree/2011/may/01/carbon-accounting-emissions-imported-goods | PIRC 2011 http://climatesafety.org/uks-totalemissions-set-to-rise-new-data-obtained-by-pirc/ | b) The Centre for International Sustainable Development Law (CISDL) Common but differentiated responsibilities http://www.cisdl.org/pdf/brief_common.pdf | c) Russian heat wave United Press International (UPI) Heather Somerville http://www.upi.com/Science_News/ResourceWars/2010/08/12/Russian-fires-forecast-climate-change-threat/UPI-23361281637573/ | Zero Carbon Farm 2010 http://zerocarbonfarm.com/community/node/153 | CP 2010 http://climateprogress.org/2010/08/14/climate-experts agree-globalwarming-caused-russian-heat-wave/ | Huffington Post Aolnews http://www.aolnews.com/2010/09/01/russian-drought-spursworldwide-food-price-hikes/ | G 2010 Raj Patel, Mozambique's food riots the true face of global warming. http://www
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.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/sep/05/mozambique-food-riots-pate l | Food prices G 2011 http://www.guardian.co.uk /environment/2011/may/05/food-prices-global-warming |World Watch Institute 2011 http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5434 | Earth Institute 2011 http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2011/03/22/climate-change-to-exacerbate-rising-food-prices/ |
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b) International negotiations on climate history Law and Your Environment http://www.environmentlaw.org.uk/rte.asp?id=121 | Bush rejects Kyoto Indy 29/3/2001 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/bush-declares-he-wont-sign-kyotoslandmark-treaty-on-global-warming-689360.html | Copenhagen Accord UNFCCC http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_15/copenhagen _accord/items/5262.php | failure or success ? Greenpeace, http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/en/news-and-blogs/campaign-blog/wasthe-copenhagen-accord-an-abject-failure-o/blog/25896 | branded "abject failure" Deutsche Welle http://www.dwworld.de/dw/article/0,,5039226,00.html | US Anti climate action lobby Environmental News Network http://www.enn.com /top_stories/commentary/3937 1 | G http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/aug/14/us-lobbying | National Journal, Ronald Brownstein http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/political-connections/gop-gives-climate-science-a-cold-shoulder-20101009 | c) Carbon Offets New Internationalist http://www.newint.org/features/2006/07/01/carbon-offsets-facts/ | in the UK Business Green (BG) 2011 http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2036063/committee-climate-change-advises-uk-meet-carbon-budget-offsets | UN considers abuses.BG 2010 http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/1802830/un-considers-review-alleged-carbon-offset-abuses | Upsetting the Offset: The Political Economy of Carbon Markets.Steffen Bohm & Siddhartha Dabhi, MayFlyBooks, 2009 | Clean Development Mechanism UNFCCC http://cdm.unfccc.int/ | CP 2009 http://climateprogress.org/2009/07/15 /internationalthe-cdm-rip-offsets-or-real-emissionreductions/ | Monbiot 2009 http://www.monbiot.com/2009/07/14/pullingyourself-off-the-ground-by-your-whiskers/ | BG 2010, Danny Bradbury, http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/1802522/cdmoffset-assessors-fresh-criticism | The Clean Development Mechanism and its Implications for Climate Justice Ann E. Prouty http://www.columbiaenvironmentallaw.org/assets/pdfs/34.2/9._Prouty_34.2.pdf | CDM Watch http://www.cdm-watch.org/ | CFC abuse BG 2010 http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/1802830/un-considers-review-alleged-carbon-offset-abuses | Carbon Cycle G http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/feb/25/carbon-cycle | National Earth Science Teachers Association http://www. windows2universe.org/earth/Water/co2_cycle.html | VisionLearning http://www.visionlearning.com/library/module_viewer.php?mid=95 | Leave Fossil fuels in ground Coal SOMG pp 172-77 | Treehugger 2009 http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/04/three-quartersfossil-fuel-reserves-must-not-be-used-avoid-climate-change.php | George Monbiot 2010 http://www.monbiot.com/2010/09 /27/looking-for-trouble/ | Carbon Trading South African Institute of International Affairs http://www.saiia.org.za/archiveeafrica/what-is-carbon-trading.html | Indy 2006 http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/the-big-question-what-is-carbontrading-and-can-it-save-the-world-from-global-warming-410190.html | FERN Trading Carbon: How it works and why its controversial, Jutta Kill et al http://www.fern. org/sites/fern.org/files/tradingcarbon_internet_FINAL.pdf | The Cornerhouse, Carbon Trading: A critical conversation on climate change, privatisation and power Larry Lohman et al http://www .thecornerhouse.org.uk/sites/thecornerhouse.org.uk/files/carbonDDlow.pdf | EU ETS European Commission EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets/index_en.htm | MIT Energy Initiative (PC) 2008 Lessons to be learned. http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/spotlights/europe-carbon.html | Sandbag http://www.sandbag.org.uk/ | Open Europe 2005 The high price of hot air http://www.openeurope.org.uk/research/ets.pdf | failing G 2010 http://www.guardian.co.uk/ environment/2010/feb/08/carbon-emissions-trading-system | Corporate Europe Obsevatory 2011 EU Emissions Trading System: failing at the third attempt http://www.corporateeurope.org/climate-and-energy/content/2011/04/eu-ets-failing-third-attempt | The Telegraph 2011 The great carbon trading scandal http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/8290533/The-greatcarbon-trading-scandal.html | Deforestation Indy 2007 http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/deforestationthe-hidden-cause-of-global-warming-448734.html | Greenpeace http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/forests/climate-change | WWF http://www.wwf.org.uk/what_we_do/safeguarding _the_natural_world/forests/deforestation_and_climate_change/ | SD 2007 http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/05/070511100918.htm | Land Use Change Carbon Association Australasia Ltd Land use and land cover change http://caaltd.org/Rainforest/LandUse.aspx |Union of Concerned Scientists http://www.ucsusa.org /global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/the-impacts-of-land-use-on.html | Indonesia deforestation moratorium Voice of America News 2011 http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/southeast/Indonesias-Deforestation-Moratorium-Still-on-Hold119836634.html | Peat Fires Biofuelwatch South East Asias peat fires and Global Warming http://www .biofuelwatch.org.uk /peatfiresbackground.pdf | SD 2009 http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091127132838.htm | REDD REDD http://www.un-redd.org/ | REDD-Monitor http://www.redd-monitor.org/ | BBC 2010 Seeing REDD over Forest Peoples Arun Agrawal http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8660845.stm | Friends of the Earth International REDD: the realities in black and white http://www.foei.org/en/resources/publications/pdfs/2010/redd-the-realities-in-black-and-white | d) Contraction and Convergence Aubrey Meyer http://makewealthhistory.org/2009/04/14/contraction-and-convergence-byaubrey-meyer/ | Global Commons Institute http://www.gci.org.uk/ | Kyoto2 Kyoyo2, Oliver Tickell, Zed Books 2008 http://www.kyoto2.org/ | Cap and Share http://www.capandshare.org/index.html |
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a) Cutting other gases BBC 2011 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12548160 | Renewable Energy Overview Sustainable Energy - Without the Hot Air David J.C. MacKay,. UIT Cambridge, 2008 | Wind energy: Yes2wind http://www.yes2wind.com/explore/why-wind-energy/ | myths debunked http://www.yes2wind.com/explore/debunking-the myths/ | RenewableUK http://www.bwea.com/onshore/index.html | technology http://www.bwea.com/ref/tech.html | Solar Energy DESERTEC Foundation http://www.desertec.org/en/ | Howstuffworks How solar cells work http://science.howstuffworks .com/environmental/energy/solar-cell.htm | Centre for Alternative Energy Solar Photovoltaics http://www.cat.org.uk/ information/pdf/SolarPhotovoltaics.pdf | Tidal and Wave energy: RenewableUK http://www.bwea.com/marine/intro.html | About.com http://inventors.about.com/od/tstartinventions/a/tidal_power.htm | G 2011 UK marine energy sector 'could be worth
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76bn and support 68,000 jobs' http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/may/02/wave-power-tidal-energy-carbon | video EZGasSavers.com http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSBACzRE3Gw | Geothermal energy: Schoolzone - Energy Resouces http://www.darvill.clara.net/altenerg/geothermal.htm | Zero Carbon Britain 2030 http://www.zerocarbonbritain.com/ | Centre for Alternative Technology http://www.cat.org.uk/ | Carbon Capture and Storage UK CCS Community http://www.co2storage .org.uk/ Greenpeace 2008 False Hope: Why carbon capture and storage wont save the climate http://www.greenpeace.org /international/en/publications/reports/false-hope/ | Nuclear energy overview World Nuclear Association http://www.worldnuclear.org/education/intro.htm | Debate http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf50.html | International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) http://www.iaea.org/ | Greenpeace http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/blog/nuclear/the-case-against-nuclear-power-20080108 | Friends of the Earth http://www.foe.co.uk/campaigns/climate/issues/nuclear_index.html | Energy Efficiency G 2009 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jul/16/energy-efficiency | Lawrence Berkley National Library http://eetd.lbl.gov/ ee/ee-1.html b) Biofuels BBC 2007 Quick guide: Biofuels. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6294133.stm | general Edinburgh Napier University http://www.napier.ac.uk/randkt/rktcentres/bfrc/Pages/Whatarebiofuels.aspx | Friends of the EarthInternational Agrofuels http://www.foei.org/en/what-we-do/agrofuels | Biofuelwatch http://www.biofuelwatch.org.uk/ | Centre for Research on Globalization 2007, Eric Holt-Gimnez, Biofuels: The Five Myths of the Agro-fuels Transition. http://www.globalresearch .ca/index.php?context=va&aid=6188 | Corporate Europe Observatory (CEO), 2007 The EU's agrofuel folly: policy capture by corporate interests. http://archive.corporateeurope.org/agrofuelfolly.html | G 2011 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/ 2011/jan/27/biofuel-fails-green-standard | G 2011 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/13/biofuels -targets-unethical | SundayTtimes 2007 Top scientist says biofuels are scam http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1909827.ece | Oxfam 2008 Another Inconvenient Truth: Biofuels are not the answer to climate or fuel crisis http://www.oxfam.org/pressroom /pressrelease/2008-06-25/another-inconvenient-truth-biofuels-are-not-answer | Nitrous Oxide Royal Society of Chemistry http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/News/2007/September/21090701.asp | N2O Release from Agro-biofuel production..etc P J Crutzen et al http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/30/30/19/PDF/acpd-7-11191-2007.pdf | Palm Oil Greenpeace http://www. greenpeace.org.uk/forests/palm-oil | impacts Palm Oil Action Group http://www.palmoilaction.org.au/pages/deforestation.html | Indy 2009 The guilty secrets of palm oil : http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/the-guilty-secrets-of-palm-oil-are-youunwittingly -contributing-to-the-devastation-of-the-rain-forests-1676218.html | Forest Watch Indonesia http://fwi.or.id/english/?p =140 | Soy in the Amazon Mongabay.com, Rhett A Butler, Deforestation in the Amazon http://www.mongabay.com/brazil.html | impact of agriculture http://rainforests.mongabay.com/0811.htm | Survival International 2006 Soya is killing us says Amazon tribe. http://www.survivalinternational.org/news/1415 | moratorium Greenpeace 2009 http://www.greenpeace.org/internationa /en/press/releases/soya-traders-extend-moratorium/ | Food vs Fuel Environmental Health Perspectives, Food vs. Fuel: Diversion of Crops Could Cause More Hunger David J. Tenenbaum http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2430252/ | George Monbiot 2004 Feeding Cars, Not People http://www.monbiot.com/2004/11/23/feeding-cars-not-people/ | Clean Tech Group http:// cleantech .com/news/2360/why-ethanol-production-will-drive-world-food-prices-even-higher-in-2008 | effect on poor Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2008/1000934/index.html | Bioenergy UNEP http://www.unep.org/climatechange/mitigation/Bioenergy/tabid/29345/Default.aspx | Bio-economy The Tricontinental Centre (CETRI) The false solutions to save the climate. http://www.cetri.be/spip.php?article1940&lang=en | Biomass Schoolzone http://www.darvill.clara.net/altenerg/biomass.htm | G 2011 Why is the UK backing biomass ? http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2011/may/05/biomass-power-costly-climate-solution | Partnership for Policy Integrity Carbon emissions from burning biomass for energy http://www.pfpi.net/carbon-emissions | Manomet Centre for Conservation Sciences Study of Woody Biomass Energy http://www.manomet.org/node/322 | Fixing a Critical Accounting error Timothy D Searchinger http://www.princeton.edu/~tsearchi/writings/Questions%20and%20Answers%20-%20Fixing%20a%20Critical%20 Climate%20Accounting%20Error.pdf | The upfront carbon debt of bioenergy Giuliana Zanchi et al www.birdlife.org/eu/pdfs/ Bioenergy_Joanneum_Research.pdf | Wood-Based Energy: the Green Lie, Almuth Ernsting et al, Global Forest Coalition 2010, http://www.globalforestcoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/briefing-paper-bioenergy_final_1.pdf c) Vegetarian Diet G 2010, UN urges global move to meat and dairy-free diet. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010 /jun/02/un-report-meat-free-diet | Lord Stern G 2009 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/oct/26/palm-oi -initiativecarbon-emissions | Treehugger 2009 http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/03/vegetarian-diet-could-cut-climate -changemitigation-costs-by-70-percent.php | Indy 2007 http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/green-living/can-you-reduce-yourcarbon-footprint-with-a-vegan-diet-763208.html | New Yorker 2007 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/06/business/worldbusines s/06iht-greencol07.4.6029437.html | Meat & Climate G 2007 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/jul/19/climatechange .climatechange | SA 2009 http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-greenhouse-hamburger | The Institute of Environmental Management and Assessment 2010 Whats on your plate? Agriculture, meat and carbon. http://www .environmentalistonline.com/article/2010-11-15/what-s-on-your-plate-agriculture-meat-and-carbon | Chemical and Engineering News 2011 Deforestation Means Larger Carbon Footprint For Brazilian Beef | http://pubs.acs.org/cen/news/89/i07/8907scene2 .html | The Ecologist 2011 1) http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/other_comments/767768/you_dont _have _to_be _vegetarian_to_save_the_planet.html | 2) http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/458218/have_we_got_ it_right_on_meat_and_greenhouse_gas_emissions.html | 3) http://www.theecologist.org/investigations/food_and_farming /320656/can_cows_help_stop_climate_change.html | 4) Change in farming http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis /280491/change_farming_to_cut_co2_emissions_by_25_per_cent.html| | 5) http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/ Letters /463132/letter_have_we_got_it_right_on_meat_and_greenhouse_gas_emissions.html | Food Chain Friends of the Earth Food Chain campaign 2008 http://www.foe.co.uk/news/2008_food_chain_launch.html | Friends of the Earth, What's feeding our Food? http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/briefings/livestock_impacts.pdf |
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Geoengineering G 2011 What is geooengineering ? http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/feb/18/geo-engineering | dilemma G 2010 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/cif-green/2010/nov/10/geo-engineering-science-research-dilemma | BBC 2009 Engineering Earth 'is feasible http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8231387.stm | Ecologist 2009 http://www.theecologist.org/ News/news_round_up/312138/geoengineering_climate_solution_or_dangerous_distraction.html | Oceanography Vol 23 Marh 2010 A Very InconvenientTruth Charles H greene et al http://www.tos.org/oceanography/issues/issue_archive/issue_pdfs/23_1/231_greene.pdf | CCR pp 130-32 | WorldChanging, Alex Steffen http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/009784.html | e) Climate Act http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/contents | Deep cuts soon EnvironmentResearchWeb 2008 Researchers call for drastic emissions cuts http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/36248 | Kevin Anderson of the Tyndall Centre calls for rationing Natural News, http://www.naturalnews.com/031370_climate_change_food_rationing.html | BBC Dec 2010 Small steps offer no respite from climate effects Kevin Anderson http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment11999633 | Tyndall Centre 2009 The Copenhagen Diagnosis http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.org/press.html | Video http://wn.com/kevin_anderson_reframing_climate_change_part_1 | Powerpoint Kevin Anderson transitionculture.org/wpcontent/uploads/kevin-anderson-2.ppt | Biomass set to increase Worlds largest Wood Power Station approved in the UK Global Forest Coalition 2011 http://www.globalforestcoalition.org/?p=1486 f) 10% cuts per year CSR 22-23 | G 2011 Kevin Anderson http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/feb/24/models-climatepolicy-optimistic | Transition Town Network http://www.transitionnetwork.org/ | 10 : 10 http://www.1010global.org/uk | g) Economic Cost of inaction Stern Report http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate _ change/stern_review_report.cfm | Centre for Integrative Environmental Research (CIER), University of Maryland The US Economic Impact of Climate Change and the Cost of Inaction Matthias Ruth et al http://www.cier.umd.edu/documents/US%20 Economic%20Impacts%20of%20Climate%20Change%20and%20the%20Costs%20of%20Inaction.pdf | New Deal http://www. historylearningsite.co.uk/new_deal.htm | Indy 2008 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/the-big- question-what-wasroosevelts-new-deal-and-is-something-like-it-needed-today-932942.html | Green New Deal New Economics Foundation, Green New Deal http://www.neweconomics.org/projects/green-new-deal | The Green New Deal Group http://www.greennewdealgroup .org/ | Global UNEP, Global Green New Deal http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy /GlobalGreenNewDeal /tabid/1371/Default .aspx | Indy 2008 A 'Green New Deal' can save the world's economy, says UN http://www.independent.co.uk/environment /green-living/a-green-new-deal-can-save-the-worlds-economy-says-un-958696.html | US & UK in WW 2 Economic History Association http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/tassava.WWII | The United Kingdom During World War 1: Business as Usual? S Broadberry, P Howlett, Fig 1 http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/staff/academic/broadberry/wp/wwipap4 .pdf | h) Ban domestic flights 55 mph speed limit CSR p 23 | Daniel Scharf of Greenspeed http://portal.campaigncc.org/content/10-10 -55mph-national-speed-limit | UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC), Oxford University http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/research/energy /downloads/qh2-limitingspeed.pdf | BBC 2007 MP calls for domestic flight ban http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6256781.stm |
This booklet has been produced by the The Campaign against Climate Change 5 Caledonian Road, London N1 9DX www.campaigncc.org Published July 2011
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