Conflict Analysis

Practical tool to analyse conflict in

order to prioritise and strategise Conflict
Transformation Programmes
Content

Acronyms and definitions 4

1 Introduction 5

2 ICCO & Kerk in Actie and Conflict Transformation 6

3 Conflict Analysis 8

4 Questions for analyzing the conflict 10

5 Next Steps 24

Annex A.Recommendations to improve CT 26

Bibliography 27

Colofon

Text: Irma Specht, Transition International

Design: Zwerver Grafische Vormgeving, Zeist
Photo: Teun Voeten, Liberia

© ICCO & Kerk in Actie, 2008


 Acronyms and definitions

CM Conflict Management

CR Conflict Resolution

CT Conflict Transformation

DDR Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration

GBV Gender Based Violence

HR Human rights

ICCO Inter-church organization for development cooperation

ICG International Crisis Group

TOR Terms of Reference

SALW Small Arms and Light Weapons

FBO Faith-based organisation

DEFINITIONS

Conflict Transformation Conflict transformation aims at truly achieving positive peace. It not
only aims to end violence and change negative relationships between
the conflicting parties but also to change the political, social or
economic structures that cause such negative relationships. Conflict
transformation is aimed at empowering people to become involved in
non-violent change processes themselves, to help build sustainable
conditions for peace and justice.1

Conflict Resolution Conflict resolution work is aimed at developing and offering a range
of alternative approaches for handling disputes non-violently and
effectively. The methods might include customary or traditional
methods, joint problem-solving, negotiation, mediation, arbitration.2

Conflict Management Conflict management refers to the variety of ways by which people
handle grievances - clashes of right and wrong. It includes such
diverse phenomenon as gossip, ridicule, lynching, terrorism, warfare,
feuding, genocide, law, mediation, and avoidance. Which of these
diverse forms of conflict management will be used in any given
case is predicted and explained by the social structure- or social
geometry- of the case.

______________________________________
1 Based upon definition of Lederach (2003), abapted by Wormgoor (2004).
2 Wormgoor 2004, categorisation is based on work by Fitzduff (1993).


1 Introduction

The mission of ICCO & Kerk in Actie is to work towards a In 2005, a manual for Conflict Analysis and Peace-build-
world where poverty and injustice are no longer present. ing was developed for ICCO by Chris van de Borgh. While
The work of ICCO & Kerk in Actie consists of giving sup- this manual presented the issues along with different
port to activities which stimulate and enable people, in theories very systematically, it became clear in the
their own way, to organize dignified housing and living baseline study that the manual had not been thoroughly
conditions. ICCO adopted the rights-based approach used. The baseline study recommended complementing
as an overarching concept of its policy and formulated the manual with a more user-friendly tool that can be
three main policy themes: Democratisation & Peace- used by both ICCO & Kerk in Actie and its partners.
building (D&P), Access to Basic Services (ABS) and Fair
Economic Development (FED). In each country, ICCO & Therefore, it is the purpose of the present tool to fill the
Kerk in Actie prioritized one policy theme, thus improv- gap and help the staff of ICCO & Kerk in Actie, its part-
ing focus and coherence in the country programmes. ners and consultants to do in-depth conflict analyses.
The result will be a detailed description of the attitudes,
The policy on peace-building of ICCO & Kerk in Actie is the behaviour, the perceptions, the context and the
focused on the concept of Conflict Transformation (CT). underlying structures of the conflicts. Answering and
CT aims to transform negative destructive conflict into discussing all 13 questions of this manual will provide
positive constructive relations and deals with behaviour- the basis for strategy development, guiding CT actions
al and attitudinal aspects but also the structural dimen- and priorities. It must be stressed that conflict analysis
sions of conflict. One of the prerequisites for an effective is important, but it is only the first step in developing
conflict transformation strategy is therefore a thorough an effective CT programme. It is not within the scope of
conflict analysis on the basis of which relevant CT inter- this tool to provide detailed guidance on all steps, but
ventions can be developed and implemented. Chapter 5 of this manual provides some indications on
how to move from the analysis to developing a vision of
In 2006, ICCO initiated a baseline study to provide a the future, and a CT programme. Because this tool will
systematic and critical overview of its current efforts and be used around the world, in many different cultures,
results in the field of conflict transformation in Africa conflicts and different stages of conflict, no detailed
and the Middle East. Progress in the coming years will be guidance can be provided on the exact process of under-
measured against this baseline. The baseline highlighted taking the analysis and developing a CT programme. It
the urgent need for strengthening the capacities of ICCO is, however, stressed that ICCO & Kerk in Actie and its
and its partners to undertake thorough conflict analysis partners should undertake the analysis in a consultative
that must form the basis of CT strategy development. process, in order to have joint ownership and com-
Several partners of ICCO analysed the conflicts but, with mon understanding about the goals and social change
a few exceptions, the analysis rather tends to focus on desired as an alternative to violent conflict. The process
the direct causes than on the roots of the conflicts. ICCO of bringing partners together to compare notes on the
& Kerk in Actie have to undertake a more thorough causes of the conflict can be considered a CT activity in
and deeper conflict analysis that can explain how these itself. It is clear that different views will be expressed by
immediate causes relate to deeper structural causes. Ad- different partners and it is, therefore, extremely impor-
ditionally, the baseline pointed to problems in terms of: tant to realise that all different views are all valid, and
linking the analysis to setting priorities; strategy develop- if put together, can actually provide a much better and
ment based upon the analysis; and the complete lack of full picture of the situation.
impact indicators.


 2 ICCO & Kerk in Actie and Conflict Transformation

“Rather than seeing peace as a static end state, conflict transfor- For ICCO & Kerk in Actie it is additionally important
mation views peace as a continuously evolving and developing to assess the role of religion as part of the underlying
quality of relationships”. structures of specific conflicts. On this basis, a country-
John Paul Lederach (The Little Book on Conflict Transformation, 2003). specific CT strategy, mobilizing religious capital with
potential to contribute to positive social change, while
Conflict transformation (CT) not only aims to end vio- reducing the negative potential of religious actors and
lence and change negative relationships between the beliefs that might spoil or hinder social change and
conflicting parties, it also aims to change the political, peace, can be build.
social and/or economic structures that cause negative
relationships. The lenses of CT therefore show the imme- Also, ICCO & Kerk in Actie wants to implement gender-
diate situation and the underlying patterns. sensitive CT programmes. This means that at all stages,
from conflict analysis, to strategizing, programme
The overall objective of Conflict Transformation for ICCO development, implementation and evaluation, gender
& Kerk in Actie is: dimensions shall receive appropriate attention. Gender
To change negative relationships between the conflicting parties, relations can be sources of conflict, but also entry
and the political, social or economic structures that cause such points for peace and social change. It is important to
relationships. analyze and address both women’s and men’s attitudes,
their behaviour, and their contexts in this gender ap-
The overarching impact indicator is that: proach.
Violent conflict is transformed into positive social change, CT includes conflict resolution and conflict manage-
where underlying structures of conflict are addressed, resulting ment but goes beyond these approaches. For example,
in changes of attitudes, relationships and behavior, leading while conflict resolution mainly focuses on changing
towards sustainable peace with respect for human rights. attitudes and improving relationships between conflict-
ing groups, conflict transformation also focuses on
Conflict transformation therefore focuses on: changing the context. Conflict management almost
1. Addressing underlying structures and contexts of purely focuses on controlling and changing behaviour.
conflict. This implies that a solid conflict analysis Although activities on conflict resolution and conflict
should guide the CT interventions; management are still valid under the new approach
2. Understanding and changing attitudes, behaviour of of CT, they need to be complemented with activities
people and the context of conflict; aimed at transforming the underlying structures of
3. Using conflict as an opportunity to initiate a process conflict, and ensure that more linkages are created
of social change. How do we end destruction and build with all groups of actors. An exclusive focus on behav-
a better society envisioning the present problems as iour quickly leads to conflict management approaches
opportunities for change. only. Focusing mainly on attitudes, leads to conflict
4. Creating positive peace3 as middle to long term com- resolution approaches. Whereas focusing mainly on
mitment; structural causes of conflicts or the context of conflicts
5. Establishing vertical and horizontal linkages between can be classified as general development projects. Yet,
all levels of actors and stakeholders; focusing on and combining all three angles of conflict
6. Improving relationships towards growing equality, can finally lead to Conflict Transformation, especially
justice, democratic decision making and respect for when it is recognized that the conflict opens the road
human rights; to social change.

______________________________________
3 Conflict transformation aims at achieving truly positive peace,
characterized not only by the absence of war, but also by minimum
standards of well-being, justice, and freedom.


 Action: reduction
of violence to promote
negative peace

Behaviour

Visible violence

Less visible violence

(under the surface)

Attitude Context

Action: work to change

attitudes and context, as
well as violence reduction,
to promote positive peace

Figure 2.1: Adaptation of Galtung’s triangle (Fisher et al., 2000: 10)

CT seeks to remove the asymmetries between conflicting “Too quickly, people jump from a brief analysis or
parties and tries to influence the structures that foster context description to the identification of potential
these asymmetries. In addition, CT focuses on trans- transformers”;
forming violent conflict into constructive conflict, and • ICCO’s work on peace-building clearly comes from
can therefore indeed be regarded as a (violent) conflict a conflict resolution perspective. Although many
prevention measure. Much emphasis is put on creating partners go beyond this, in order to become a real
lasting and positive peace. However, conflict might re- effective actor in CT ICCO & Kerk in Actie need to do
main necessary to create social change and real positive more work on addressing the underlying structures
peace. Therefore, CT is applicable in all stages of conflict, of conflict;
also in the so called “post conflict” contexts, where many • It has proven difficult to find the relationship be-
conflicts remain unresolved with the potential for re- tween the local conflicts, on which some partners
escalation. focus, and the bigger national or regional con-
flicts;
In order to learn more about the theory and principles of • There are no explicit explanations made regarding
CT, please see the bibliography for additional readings. how the projects use the ongoing conflict to create a
better society;
In 2006, ICCO established a baseline in which the follow- • Outcomes and impacts are not measured systemati-
ing weaknesses were highlighted. Therefore, they now cally. All partners lack proper impact indicators.
deserve special attention: Social change can therefore not be assessed properly.
• CT analyses are too weak on root-causes and under- In addition, unforeseen negative impact is never
lying structures of conflict. This is automatically reported, due to the fact that impact is not monitored
reflected in the policies deriving from the analyses. regularly.


 3 Conflict Analysis

In CT, all interventions need to be linked to deeper also implies analyzing the actors in the conflict and their
structures of injustice and inequality, so that even the linkages. The categories of actors used in CT are Track,
smallest intervention contributes to social change and, 1, 2 and 3 actors, as explained in the drawing below:
ultimately, can lead to sustainable peace. This is one of
the main shifts from conflict management and conflict The other dimension of CT is that of improving
resolution, purely focusing on resolving immediate caus- relationships through transformed perceptions/ at-
es. In CT, conflict is seen as an opportunity for changing titudes, behaviours and context. In order to work on
long-lasting problems that are deeply rooted in societies. this, a thorough understanding of the actors, their
This change cannot be achieved without a thorough objectives and agendas is required. Also, CT aims to
understanding of the origins of the conflicts, which are use the conflict as an opportunity to create social
made explicit and shared among partners. change. For this element, a thorough understanding
of the overall situation, the cultural, religious and
Theories explaining violent conflict, their main causes, social capital of people, potential and historical ten-
and the driving forces behind conflict sometimes distin- sions, attitudes and perceptions all need to be part of
guish between underlying social structures in society the analysis.
(e.g. unequal access to basic services and economic op-
portunities, land and wealth), and the agendas as well as In CT, the conflict analysis should form the basis
the motivations of actors involved (agency). In fact, for the of setting the CT agenda and choosing its partners.
explanation of violent conflict, the analysis of structures Therefore, ICCO & Kerk in Actie must invest seriously
and agency has to be combined. As the main objective of in this element of programming. Additionally, con-
CT is to transform underlying structures of conflict, it is flicts evolve and consequently attitudes, behaviours,
therefore absolutely necessary that the conflict analysis and contexts might change rapidly. Regular updates
goes deep into describing and analyzing these dimen- (such as yearly) are required as conflicts and transfor-
sions (structures and agency). Analyzing causes of conflict mation processes are highly dynamic and approaches
need to be flexible, able to adapt to new challenges
constantly.
TYPE OF ACTORS Few
Level 1: Track I Ideally, the country and regional analysis should
Top Leadership
• Military/political/religious/
A
take place through a consultative process with all
leaders with high visibality
F partners, potential partners and other stakeholders.
F Partners should first be encouraged to do their own
E
C analysis using this manual. The partners’ analysis
T should then be compared and discussed with those of
Level 2: Track II
Middle Range Leaders E
other partners and ultimately feed into the broader
• Leaders respected in D
sectors ICCO & Kerk in Actie analysis and vice-versa. Other
• Ethnic/religious leaders P complementary sources should be consulted (such
• Academics/intellectuals
O
• Humanitarian leaders as analyses of the International Crisis Group, United
(NGOs) P
U Nations and World Bank reports, publications from
L national universities) and differences should be
Level 3: Track III
A
Grassroots Leaders discussed with the partners. The full picture should
• Local leaders T
• Leaders of I then determine the CT strategy and the priorities
indigenous NGOs O
• Community
in the specific country or region. Different partners
N
developers might analyse a specific and very local conflict. It is,
• Local health
officials however, important to link these local conflicts to
• Refugee camp
bigger country-wide or regional conflicts. The ICCO
leaders Many
& Kerk in Actie umbrella analysis will need to show
Figure 2.2: Actors in peacebuilding (Lederach, 1997: 39) this. This way ICCO & Kerk in Actie and its partners


 Partner Partner Partner
Analysis Analysis Analysis

ICCO & Kerk in Actie

Conflict Analysis
(Complemented with secondary sources)

Strategy & Priorities

can fully understand the linkages between the dif- itual resources.” (Ellis and Ter Haar 2006). For ICCO &
ferent conflicts and start to develop the strategy as Kerk in Actie and its partners it is therefore to realise
well as the impact indicators for a country-specific that religion can have positive or negative influences
CT programme. In addition, partners will be able to on conflict and as well as on conflict transformation.
analyse how their local actions are part of the bigger This should be recognised and become part of the
picture, and this will clarify which linkages they will conflict analysis, the CT programme policy and the
need to establish with Track, 1, 2 and 3 actors. Their CT evaluation. Only when described and analysed sys-
analysis, complemented with the insights from the tematically, it can be judged what religion means and
broader analysis, should determine the focus of their how religious capital can be mobilized for CT. At the
specific projects. same time it will inform us how to reduce and trans-
form religious influence on attitudes and perceptions
One of the strengths of ICCO & Kerk in Actie is the that fuel conflict.
ability to work ecumenically and even more so in-
terfaith. This unique mandate should be recognized Finally, not all partners work on the same conflicts
more explicitly. For example, Professor Gerrie ter within one country, and neither on the same level of the
Haar holds the view that the religious resources of conflicts. But it must be realised that local conflicts influ-
people should be recognized and can be mobilized: ence each other and the national or regional situation as
“People’s full range of resources should provide the well as vice-versa. Compiling the different analyses from
foundation for any development strategy. Among the partners into a broader ICCO & Kerk in Actie umbrel-
these, we have argued, are people’s religious and spir- la analysis will clearly show this.


 4 Questions for analyzing the conflict

The following 13 Questions will help to analyse the

conflicts you are working on, and the linkages they
have with other conflicts. Under each question you find
several examples from all over the world, to stimulate
your thinking. These are not necessarily all apply to your
context and should not be regarded as a check-list.

The answers to the 13 questions below should be mini-

mum one-page per question. You are encouraged to be as
detailed as possible. Please try to discuss every question
with your colleagues and partners before answering. Look
at the examples below to be inspired. Consider all the dif-
ferent dimensions and levels for answering the questions.

Of course, the analysis itself will not provide the

answers on how to develop a CT programme, but a
thorough understanding of the conflict you are work-
ing on is the first essential step. In this manual, the last
question (13), asks to identify windows of opportunity
for social change and your answers are the first step
in analysing the potential for peace. Identifying the
potential for peace is the essential second step after
understanding the causes of conflict. In ‘Chapter 5:
Next Steps’, an overview is provided for the additional
work that is required to move from conflict analysis to
a vision of change, and a CT strategy and programme
towards peace and social change.

10
 Question 1:
What are the underlying structures and causes that created the grounds for the
conflict?

WHY? EXAMPLES:
In CT, all interventions need to be linked to deeper • One ethnic group is not regarded as the true owners of this
structures of injustice and inequality, so that even the land, they are still seen as foreigners;
smallest intervention contributes to social change and, • Economic and education policies have for centuries only
ultimately, to sustainable peace. One of the main fea- focused on building the capital city and its direct surround-
tures of conflict transformation is to really address the ings;
underlying causes of conflict, the so called root-causes, • Since colonial time, people have been provided with hand-
in order to ensure that social change and peace can outs and, therefore, became fully dependent on the ruling
be sustainable. Therefore, it is crucial to analyze these parties;
root causes as thoroughly and historically far back as • Since the change of religion and its rules, women no longer
possible. have a voice in society;
• Inequality between the two populations have been system-
atically held in place, and also through foreign influences;
• The natural resources have never been managed properly
Every conflict has many causes
and its benefits are regarded as being owned by the one
that exploits them;
• Youth are not regarded to have any opinion until they
C O N F L I C T become parents themselves;
• Raiding cattle is part of the culture because you need to
have a lot of cows to marry;
• Political and economic interests of neighbouring coun-
tries;
CAUSE

CAUSE

CAUSE

CAUSE

CAUSE

CAUSE

CAUSE

11
 Question 2:
What are the more recent causes of conflict and why is the conflict continuing?

WHY? EXAMPLES:
When analyzing the causes of conflict it is helpful to • The global markets in both natural resources and arms made
differentiate between the deep underlying causes that rebellion easier to finance and equip. Rebel groups can now
created the grounds for potential conflict, but also the sell the future rights to mineral extraction (conditional on
more recent causes. Among these “proximate causes” it rebel victory) to raise funds for weapon purchases;4
is important to describe the conflict dynamics and, for • The economic decline that started 5 years ago marginalized
example the way the war economy functions. If conflicts the ethnic group in the North even further;
take long, they are in fact creating their own causes. This • While both rebel groups started off as fighting against
level of analysis will not identify why the conflict started equality and the mistreatment of the population by the
but why it is continuing. It also describes some of the Government, in the past years they seem to be mainly driven
causes that directly relate to the underlying causes. The by greed. It almost looks like they use the term inequality to
drawing below explains the differences between Ques- justify their opportunistic behaviour;
tion 1 (structural causes) and this question which focuses • Since the majority of the schools closed, children became even
on proximate causes and triggers). more vulnerable to recruitment;
• Over the past years criminal networks have gained too much
influence on political actors.
• The economy in transition caused allocation disputes over
Three Categories of Causes economic resources;
• Due to the war, no training other than war-skills is provided
Immediate catalysts/Triggers in the army;
Electoral fraud, political assassination, new • Changes in the political system (from dictatorship or military
& enforced discriminatory policies
potentates (junta) towards broader participation of the civil
Proximate causes society) have created scope for the development of new (and
Specific situational circumstances (e.g. increasing insecurity on
streets, frequency of political arrests, capital flight) more radical) political actors.

Systemic causes
General underlying, structural, deep-rooted, background pre-
conditions
(e.g. economic disparity, historic oppression, high military expenditure)
______________________________________
From Alex Schmid’s Thesaurus and Glossary of Early Warning and Conflict Prevention Terms 4 Based upon Collier 2003

12
 Question 3:
Who are the actors and stakeholders in the conflict? Describe how and why they are the
conflict’s stakeholders.

WHY? EXAMPLES:
In CT, great emphasis is placed on engaging and linking • In the areas “controlled” by the larger rebel groups, military
actors. Therefore, we need to fully understand which ac- or political leaders often decide not to follow the nation-
tors there are in the conflict and what their role is. Try to wide agreements and temporarily follow their own destina-
describe all conflict-related actors at all levels (including tion, which sometimes includes clashing with their official
Governments, armed groups but also civil society actors, partners. They can upset a district and cause suffering and
donors, international actors and communities, individu- damage ( refugee flows);
als, men and women). In Question 10 later on, you are • Government has full control over civil society. Civil society
asked to describe all actors, also those not involved with keeps quiet, critical people close their mouth or flee;
the conflict and describe their linkages. Here, please • International donors and governments mainly support and
focus on those causing and fuelling conflict. work in line with the government, because they are strongly
criticized when they support critical NGOs or churches and
when they express critics or other opinions;
• The business community fully benefits from the chaos and
has tripled export of natural resources without any taxes
being collected. Many Government officials benefit directly;
• Armed men tend to treat women as their property and
girls are handed over to higher ranks as if they were an
item to possess. Giving a commander your most beautiful
girl is regarded as loyalty and helps you in your military
career;
• Parents started sending their children to enrol in the armed
forces, as this is the only way that the rest of the family will
survive;
• Many NGOs became part of the conflict because their affili-
ation is purely based on ethnicity. They became political
instruments;
• Criminal networks were able to increase their freedom of ac-
tion and participate in the war economy;
• Foreign governments are seeking more influence in the coun-
try or the region, by supporting one or more of the fighting
groups.

13
 Question 4:
What attitudes do people have that inflict conflict and where do these attitudes come from?

WHY? EXAMPLES:
Peoples’ attitudes and perceptions shape their behav- • Some want access to power and wealth, and for the rest it is
iour, also in terms of using or advocating violence. personal interest in power and thus wealth (greed). Some
Before we can start thinking about transforming violent might be advised by foreign interests;
behaviour into more constructive behaviour, we must • There is more and more distrust between leaders and popula-
therefore understand what the underlying attitudes tion groups and fear for exclusion and persecution. The lack
and perceptions are. Perception and attitude is, further- of trust that existed for centuries has been used by the ruling
more, largely shaped by the context people are living in party to create more fear and control over the population;
as well as by the experiences they make. Therefore, this • Ethnic differences between people have always brought some
question links to question 1 (the one addressing the root tensions but these differences have been exaggerated by the
causes of the conflict). In analysing attitudes, you must government to create more divide and hatred. Now, parents
identify whose perceptions they are and where they pass on these ideas to their children;
come from. Include perceptions among civilians that • The divine justification of the superiority of one group over
are older, rooted in the culture as well as the attitudes the other is justifying hatred and intolerance;
and perceptions of violent actors. Pay attention to the • The arrogance of the occupying power reflects their attitude
changes in attitudes that are a result of the conflict. that they are in fact entitled to this land;
• While apartheid has officially stopped, in the minds of the
majority of the people the other race is still minor to theirs;
• While all armed groups claim to fight for justice and equal-
ity, they seem to be in competition about what that means:
equality and justice for whom?
• The refugee camps and the preferential treatment of the refu-
gees by the donor community are creating serious tensions in
the host communities;
• NGO’s have changed their attitudes towards the government
and are unwilling to be controlled or coordinated by any
government related body;
• Since the rebel group has been internationally labelled as a
terrorist organization, the group has lost many supporters
from the diaspora who have become afraid;
• The attitude of donors is that they cannot pay for the salaries
of the police, but the government is in no position to do so.
Therefore, the police are not paid and are harassing people;
• While the UN might have helped to monopolize the power
back in the hands of the government, it is not clear what they
are thinking of when they say they are improving security.
The question remains, security for whom? The rebel group
is still recruiting local youth in order to ensure community
security, which according to them includes food security;
• The attitude of political supremacy was existent before the
conflict, was questioned during the conflict and today it is
still there and remains a source of conflict.

14
 Question 5:
In what contexts do people live that creates the potential for violent behaviour and the
attitudes of intolerance? What are the consequences of the conflict on the context?

WHY? EXAMPLES:
Another important dimension to describe is the context • The government becomes more confidential and increasingly
in which people live, at this point in time. The circum- centralises the power. Space for other opinions and for dialogue
stances people live in are another determining factor diminishes. It develops into a one-party dictatorial state;
that affects the way they view the world and how they • The refugee camp is getting so full that the tensions between
will behave. Access to basic services and economic op- the ethnic groups are really getting out of hand;
portunities, environmental conditions, health issues, but • Salaries of soldiers and police have not been paid for 6 months
also to what extent people can influence national and lo- and they have started to massively hassle the population;
cal politics, existing mechanisms of social exclusion, etc., • The complete lack of services in the rural area is pulling
are all part of the context. In CT, it is stressed that part thousands of people to the capital where they live under very
of transformation must change those elements in the bad conditions and where violence is part of daily life;
context that frustrate people and, therefore, are likely to • The child soldiers grew-up in the war and do not have any
trigger perceptions of injustice and, ultimately, violent reference to what a normal society looks like; therefore, their
behaviour. For these reasons, it is important to map the life skills and mentality are hard to change;
context people live in. In this part, also describe how the • The forced disarmament programme of the government is
war has changed the context, such as changes in income leading to escalations between neighbouring groups that are
levels, unemployment rates, numbers and locations of still armed and leave communities behind in complete fear
IDPs, refugees, regional dimensions, etc. for attacks without any protection;
• Impunity for acts committed by government-related persons
or military;
• Although Liberia is a rich country (full of natural resources),
it is actually the poorest country in the world (HDI). The
majority of the people have only one meal a day;
• Natural resources of daily use (like water) are scarce in the
country or region, fuelling conflict and disputes of allocation
among individual people or groups;
• A lack of employment opportunities forces people to join
criminal and/or armed groups to earn an income;
• Inequality has risen because of widespread corruption;
• Lack of governmental control over the military or military
resources;
• Due to a state of ongoing conflict, the military became a
dominant societal actor, influencing cultural perceptions of
the people.

15
 Question 6:
Which types of behaviour fuel the violent outbreaks of conflict and why do people
behave that way?

WHY? EXAMPLES:
In the conflict triangle, attitude and context make peo- • The corruption of the government is making people furi-
ple behave in certain manners and, consequently, peo- ous and results in a complete mistrust. The lack of control
ple adapt their context and attitude to their behaviour. and enforcement capacity to punish corruption leaves the
Intervening in this triangle to transform some of these path open for anyone to take what they can get;
dynamics demands a deep level of understanding of the • Men have become really violent towards their wives and
behaviour of people. Describe the conflict-related behav- daughters. This relates to their frustration due to long
iour of different groups of people and try to understand unemployment and feelings of failure to take care of them.
why they behave the way they do. Don’t make any Alcoholism and violence at home are consequences of this;
judgments; just try to understand, by placing yourself • The border between our territories is not respected, and the
into their minds and contexts. Use your answers from other group constantly tries to steal more of our land. This
Questions 2 and 3 to describe where their behaviour clearly shows they do not intend to respect the international
comes from. agreements;
• The youth are becoming increasingly more difficult to control;
their frustration over the political situation combined with
the closure of the university is fueling their anger;
• The international community awoke only when atrocities,
like cutting off limbs and group rape, came into public-
ity;
• The fact that so many young people were given drugs by
the warlords is resulting in serious misbehaviour of the
youth;
• The misuse of guns increased due to their availability;
• Criminal gangs are pressing money from small shop owners
and sell drugs in the neighbourhood;
• Radical rhetoric in the media is increasing and people start
to adapt radical views.

16
 Question 7:
How do the local conflicts relate to bigger national or regional conflicts?
And how does the bigger conflict influence local dynamics and conflicts?

WHY? EXAMPLES:
Most partners have limited capacities to significantly • Local conflicts are mostly related to the higher-level conflict as
impact on the greater national or international conflicts. local leaders and warlords are part of a higher level party;
The majority of the partners are most effective when con- • Economic policies destroy the local market and thus the
centrating on local conflicts, which might be linked to a position of farmers or small shop owners, which are of one
greater context. Especially when combining behaviour, specific ethnic group, is very bad;
attitude and context of the conflict they are working on, • The UNDDR programme provided exclusive benefits to the
most ICCO & Kerk in Actie partners simply do not have former combatants, and this is raising tensions in the com-
the capacities to do this on a larger-scale basis. However, munities;
it is important to link the conflict on which a partner is • The Peace Accord resulted in men returning home and
working to the national, regional or even international pushing women back into traditional roles, which they are
conflicts. Developments at global, regional and national not willing to accept. The increase in domestic violence is
levels do influence conflict and peace dynamics at local enormous;
levels. Therefore, it is crucial that all CT actors start • Government policies allow settlers to construct new houses on
developing horizontal and vertical linkages to the Track, the land of the local population. Tensions between them are
1, 2, and 3 actors. In order to do so, we must understand resulting in death, fear and anger, which have thus caused
what the dynamics are between the conflicts. the self-defence group to arise;
• Refugees from the neighbouring country have led to an
increased lack of access to basic services;
• Many of the young former soldiers have crossed the border to
Analyze all levels of conflict
assist their relatives in the neighbouring war;
• Conflict between neighbouring states • The global war on terror is seriously influencing the HR situa-
• Conflict between centre and religion tion on the ground;
• Situation of minorities within autonomous • The fact that the Government is arming civilians, especially
regions youth, to defend themselves and the communities is creating
• Conflicts between different opposition groups enormous tensions between the generations;
• Conflicts between warring factions and civil • Internationally operating criminal networks, linked to other
population conflict zones in the world, are exploiting the war economy
for their own benefit;

17
 Question 8:
What are (and have been) the roles, positions, ambitions and frustrations of youth in
the society?

WHY? EXAMPLES:
One of the issues a CT programme needs to address is • Traditionally, youth do not have the right to speak during
the cycle of risks for young people in order to break it. A community meetings. Youth exposure to Western governing
structured and coherent response should target young sol- methods, as they see on television and through the Internet,
diers and civilian youth simultaneously, building on the has empowered them, but not the elders. The conflict between
solidarity and recognition of youth’s distinct identity and the generations is enormous and is pushing youth to leave
role in society. Youth are the future of the society, but also their rural homes;
the most important potential threat to peace. “Youth are • Unemployed youth have been the main target group for
being regarded as agents for change”, the “only hope for recruitment into the army as well as into armed groups and
the future”, “the vulnerable”, as well as a great potential militias. For most young people, this was the only job avail-
source for instability and war. It is important to stress that able;
youth, as such, have common features but are not a ho- • Along with the diamond trade, cocaine has come to this
mogeneous group, and neither are the young ex-combat- country. Many young people are addicted and become fully
ants. What they share, however, is having been socialized depended on their suppliers. Prostitution of girls and boys
in violent environments and having been forced to make are among the direct results, together with an enormous
their future in war-torn societies and economies” . 5
increase in youth criminality;
• Youth that are in the segregated schools are taught about
their enemies and are preached hatred and willingness to
defend their own people. The brainwashing of students is of
very high concern;
• The youth are at the forefront of demanding change and jus-
tice. Listening to this generation provides hope for the future
of this country. The issue is to create more space for them to
create the better world they are calling for;
• GBV against girls has reduced but has been replaced by
transactional sex, which is a direct consequence of the lack of
economic opportunities for girls, as well as a result of their
very low self-esteem. Traditionally girls were well respected
and protected but the massive amount of rape during the
past decade has left it marks;
• Frustrated youth are susceptive to radical political rhetoric
and are willing to enter conflict;
• A disproportionate part of the population consists of male
youth.

______________________________________
5 IDDRS 2.20 Youth in conflict

18
 Question 9:
How are the various religious leaders and religious organizations reducing or fueling conflict?
What is the influence of religious beliefs on people’s attitudes, behaviour and relationships?
What place does religion have in the underlying structures of the conflict?

WHY? EXAMPLES:
Transforming potential negative influence from religious • Churches that have the greatest access to the population, in
leaders, organizations and also from beliefs and attitudes any case, are more important than the political parties or
is a crucial objective of ICCO & Kerk in Actie’s CT policy. rebel groups. However, there are many who would like to see
Spoilers of peace can be those actors or doctrines who the role of the churches to become more pro-active and outspo-
preach intolerance and reward violence with spiritual ken;
approval. But it can also be that religious organizations • Religion is used increasingly more as a way to legitimate
hinder social change due to their conservative approach- power and social exclusion of non-believers;
es, rules and unchangeable hierarchies. Another risk can • Forgiveness and healing the community has always been
be the exclusion of non-believers from the community or an important feature of the culture. Also today we see the
project benefits. Assessing the role of religion and traditional healers of the communities ensuring that people
religious actors should be part of the conflict analysis in who are returning are cleansed of their evil spirits and can
order to strategically mobilize positive religious capital, therefore be reaccepted back home;
while transforming or at least reducing potential spoilers • It has become clear that a number of religious leaders are
of change, justice, equality, human rights and lasting actually preaching hatred and intolerance, which justifies the
peace. Building a country-specific CT strategy should extreme violence used by the members of that group;
mobilize religious capital which has the potential to • The interfaith activities of civil societies are managing to cross
contribute to creating positive social change. It should borders which have been understood to be impossible to cross;
also reduce the negative potential of religious actors • The belief in reincarnation partly explains the increase in
and beliefs that might spoil or hinder social change and suicide rates among youth in this area;
peace. In this it is important to analyze. • The promise of and faith in rewards after death, when fighting
for what is believed to be the good cause, is very difficult to
discuss and challenge;
• The churches and mosques are the only organizations left that
provide basic services to their members. Without these services,
many more would have died from illness and starvation.
• Foreign combatants are entering the country on a grand
scale, fighting for their own religious beliefs without having
anything in common with the local population;

19
 Question 10:
What are the gender dynamics in society? Describe the attitudes, behaviour and context
of men and women before and during the conflict.

WHY? EXAMPLES:
Perceptions of male and female roles before, during, and • Since the war, the only acceptable way for men to behave is
after conflict play a crucial role in the peace-building to be violent. Women have always encouraged men to behave
process. Gender roles change during and after conflict, violently. Young wives rewarded the violence and their looted
and these dynamics need to be taken seriously through- items by welcoming them back with loud dancing and sing-
out the CT process. CT strategies must include women ing. Boys with uniforms are surrounded by girls. Men who
in the peace-building activities, drawing on the local refuse are laughed upon;
traditions of conflict resolution, but CT must move away • Demobilized girls are having serious problems reintegrating
from approaches that only insist on the victimization of into the community because they did things that were not
women. Instead, the essential role of women in economic expected of them as girl;
and social spheres must be promoted, including their • Women gained more freedom during the war because men
political involvement and recognition. But gender is also were absent;
about men and their roles before, during, and after con- • Parents started killing female babies, since more men are
flict. How violent is the notion of masculinities and are needed for the war and food is limited. This is a recent prac-
there more constructive notions of manhood? Describe tice and cannot be found in the tradition. Government has
here the current gender dynamics in society. taken action and has forbidden the practice;
• The fact that men and women have to serve in the military
creates gender equality;
• While the men have always been in charge of earning a
living for their families, many became unemployed during
and after the conflict. Most men expect the wives to bring in
the family income now and force them to engage in criminal
activities such as smuggling, prostitution and drug dealing;
• Most girl combatants were sexually involved with a mail
fighter during the war. Both non-fighting girls and higher-
and lower-ranked fighting girls have difficulties in their
relationships with “bush husbands’’.6
• Because looting seems to have become the only way to get
some luxury items, women started to encourage their hus-
bands to go out for that and in fact promote violence;

______________________________________
6 Specht 2006, p. 65

20
 Question 11:
What are the horizontal and vertical linkages between actors in society?
These actors include government, civil society, communities, international organizations
and donors, etc. What has changed?

WHY? EXAMPLES:
Another crucial feature of CT is to ensure that linkages are Vertical
established amongst all levels of actors in a society. These • While NGOs were traditionally very critical of government,
linkages should ideally be horizontal and vertical among due to the lack of resources their main role seems to be
all actors of Track 1 (government and decision-making reduced to implementing donors’ and governments’ projects;
bodies), Track 2 (civil society) and Track 3 (communities). • NGOs seem to have little contact with the communities they
For the type of linkages, conflict transformation focuses on pretend to represent;
relationships between different levels in society (vertical), • The government is in full control of the army, or better said
where conflict resolution mainly focuses on relationships the other way around;
between similar level organizations (horizontal). Therefore, • Civil society is seen as implementing government-developed
it is important to map how these linkages are currently policies and is not allowed to have their own position and
functioning. This question relates to Question 5 on actors, ideas. Critics or open comments are not accepted. Critical
but the difference is that you are now asked to describe NGOs or persons are threatened or their functioning is being
all actors in society, not only the actors of conflict. You are made impossible. Independent media doesn’t exist, save with
also asked to focus specifically on their linkages. You are one or two exceptions;
encouraged to use drawings to illustrate the linkages. • Parties include the government (the political elite) and inter-
nal opponents within the ruling party and other rudimen-
tary views are sometimes expressed from civil society or the
churches;
• Because working with the police is not regarded as a part of
the new framework of CT, the donors have stopped funding
NGOs on these important activities.

Horizontal
• NGOs work well together in the new network while previously
they were more in competition;
• Government agencies and ministries do not communicate
with each other;
• The opening of the marketplace and the access roads to the
market have increased community interaction, but there is
still a serious lack of trust;
• Civil society isn’t one group with one position. This varies from
neutral to strongly allied with one of the groups. For example,
churches sometimes even play a stimulating role in conflict;
• Traditional power structures have disappeared;
• Since the donors have coordinated their strategy and jointly
prioritized funding, only certain types of projects get fund-
ing, while the other important projects such as trauma heal-
ing have stopped.

21
 Question 12:
What is the current human rights situation and has it gotten better or worse?

WHY? EXAMPLES:
Human rights violations are among the most common • The numbers of reported cases of Gender Based Violence
and most devastating features of conflict. The first im- (GBV) have increased, but it is not clear if this is due to
mediate objective of CT is to transform violent conflict an increase of actual GBV at home or due to the improved
into constructive conflict. Therefore, it is important to mechanism for reporting;
describe the situation on the ground in terms of human • The human rights abuses within the prisons are shocking
rights. Please give a historical perspective: are violations and has increased enormously since the new president is in
recent or long standing? Are there new types of viola- place;
tions or are they embedded in traditional culture or • While the Truth and Reconciliation Commission has helped
military tradition? Is the situation improving? Describe to ease tensions in society, it is feared that many of the most
the types of violations by different actors and explain the serious perpetrators never came forward and also stayed
effects this has on the conflict and the society. Include an away from the DDR programme out of fear for the Special
analysis of Gender Based Violence. Courts;
• While many children have been demobilized, reports sug-
gest that recruitment is happening at a faster speed than
release;
• The war economy and its actors have replaced the collapsed
economy of the pre-war society, maintaining activities such
as smuggling, human- and drug-trafficking as well as
arms trading as a major economic factor in the post-war
society. These activities as well as the power of criminal
networks thereof are undermining human rights in many
aspects;

22
In order to gear our minds towards the future, we have added Question 13 which provides
us some entry points for programming.

Question 13:
What positive changes have the conflict triggered? Are these changes expected to be
lasting?

WHY? EXAMPLES:
A distinct feature of CT is that conflict is not automati- • Women gained more independence and decision-making pow-
cally seen as negative. In the positive sense, conflict can ers during the war. In order to maintain this positive change,
bring the necessary changes required for a more equal programmes should build on these dynamics and avoid push-
and just society. CT does promote the transformation ing women back into traditional roles;
of violent conflict into non-violent, and views this as a • Population is tired of war and violence and sees the negative
means of achieving social change. It is important to iden- consequences of having small arms circulating among civil-
tify the positive and negative changes that are created by ians; many women’s groups are increasingly advocating for
the conflict and to start analyzing if these changes will peace;
be lasting or not. Conflict has dividing dynamics and con- • Youth never had anything to say, but through the conflict
necting dynamics and this final question concentrates on their voice has been heard loudly. Programmes should work
the connectors. on empowerment of youth and on non-violent democratic de
cision-making methods as well as lobbying for youth involve-
ment in government and communities. The media should be
encouraged to give the youth a voice;
• International monitoring of, and pressure on, local and for-
eign actors is leading to opposition to unlimited power and
power abuse by authorities and others;
• A number of war criminals have been prosecuted – they are
finally out of our society;
• We can see new roles of civil society in relation to state and
international community, there is more lobbying and advo-
cacy;
• While the Tsunami impacted heavily on the population, it
did draw he international community into this region which
has definitely contributed to the improved human rights situ-
ation;
• The INGOs and bilateral donors have started to become
more active in their lobbying and influencing interna-
tional policies. The civil society is empowered to hold the
government responsible for their failure to protect the
population;
• Many people (especially youth) have left during the conflict
and came back with a better education and also business
ideas. They are better able to identify business potential and
use their skills respectively.

23
 5 Next Steps

It is important to realise that you have just completed VISIONS OF PEACE

the first step of designing an effective CT strategy. Un- Once we have understood and described the underly-
derstanding the conflict with all its facets and history is ing and immediate causes of conflict and we know who
crucial for developing any proposals for change. the actors in the conflict are, and what the potential
for change is, the next step is to visualize the future.
There are many different methodologies available to What should peace look like and what are the main
move from your current level of understanding of the features of this peace? Which structural and proxi-
conflict, to a full-fledged CT programme with a vision, mate causes need to be addressed in order to have real,
objectives, activities, outputs, outcomes and ultimately lasting peace? If the conflict is an opportunity for so-
impact indicators. It is not within the scope of this con- cial change, what are the changes we would like to see
flict analysis manual to provide full guidance on this, in the near and distant future? What are the pre-con-
but some of the next steps are mentioned below. ditions for peace? One methodology to help you visual-
izing the potential change is the “theory of change”.
While designing your strategy, please keep in mind It helps us plot our journey from where we are now to
that conflict transformation’s guiding question is this: where we want to be. Or, to put it another way, it helps
How do we end something not desired and build some- us answer the question: What is the change we are
thing we do desire? (John Paul Lederach). You have now working for, and what needs to happen for the change
seen the causes and context of the not desired kind of to come about? What is the long-term, sustainable
conflict, and the art is now to determine what a “de- social change we want to help bring about? A theory of
sired” situation should be. We can then start strategiz- change starts at the end of the change process: with a
ing and prioritizing our CT interventions, taking full long-term vision of success. This needs to be more than
account of the potential and limitations of peace at just a general statement of a mission or goal – it needs
this point in time, and realizing our own and other’s to be a detailed picture of what success would look
capacities. like. What needs to happen for this change (or vision of
success) to come? We then proceed to identify all the
ANALYSIS OF THE POTENTIALS FOR PEACE prior changes that must happen for the vision of suc-
AND CHANGE cess to be achieved. These are necessary preconditions
While in the conflict analysis we have identified the roots for success which means that they all have to exist if
and dynamics of conflict, a similar exercise is needed the long term change is to be realized and sustainable.
to identify the potentials for peace and change. This as- What needs to happen in order to achieve the pre-
sessment can follow a similar list of questions but would conditions? 7
now focus on identifying entry points for change, finding
windows of opportunity for peace. While every society FROM ANALYSIS TO A CT STRATEGY
has agents of conflict, gladly every society also has agents Then, when the conflict and its causes have been ana-
and resources for peace. For example, identifying actors lyzed, the potential for change identified, and the better
that can be transformers of conflict to peace is equally future and its conditions visualized, it is important to
important as identifying the actors of conflict, as we did. start to see what must and can be done, and by whom.
Also, in this peace analysis it is important to maintain a For this, it is crucial to go back to the conflict analysis
historical perception: what social, religious and political and to make a logical bridge from the analysis to the
resources are and have been available in the society to formulation of a country-specific conflict transforma-
foster non-violent social change? Who are the lobbyists tion strategy and policy.
of justice and respect? What is the potential of a change
in national and global politics? Who is assisting the op-
pressed or vulnerable elements in society? How ready are
people to change themselves? An analysis of the potential
______________________________________
and agents for peace is equally important as the conflict
7 Based upon Keystone, tool 2 Developing a theory for change at
analysis. http://www.keystoneaccountability.org/node/115

24
THE THREE MOST IMPORTANT SET OF to these goals. Based upon a thorough conflict analysis
QUESTIONS ARE: in one country, in one locality, it must be measured if
1. What are the preconditions for achieving our vision the intended impact has been achieved, recognizing
(which you can find in your analysis) All of those that partners can neither be fully held responsible for
things that are roots of the conflict need to be ad- failures, nor can take all credit for the success. For more
dressed in order to create lasting change. guidance on impact indicators, please consult the ICCO
2. Who should be doing what? On which part of the baseline on conflict transformation.
conflict are we currently working and what is the
expected impact? What other projects are ongoing in MUST DO
the area that addresses some dimensions of the con- 1. Address local conflicts while ensuring links to nation-
flict? Which parts of the conflict and needs for social al and international policies. Although some partners
changes are not addressed by other actors? The answer do, in most cases it is hard to find the linkages to the
to the last question will highlight the need to either CT work at the national level to the local conflicts that
find new partners for addressing this dimension or derive from them. A good CT programme will always
to see if ICCO & Kerk in Actie partners can refocus or ensure these linkages.
expand. 2. CT stresses that conflict can be seen and used as an
3. What can realistically be achieved, given the current opportunity for social change. In each country, based
capacities? What is the timeframe? What are we really on the conflict analysis, ICCO partners must explic-
good at and what are our weaknesses? How much itly describe how they want to use the conflict as a
funding can we obtain? How much political space window of opportunity to stimulate change. It must
do we have to initiate the desired changes? Who are also be made clear what types of changes will be
the potential spoilers of our efforts and how will we worked on.
engage them? 3. ICCO especially needs to reinforce its work on the
structural causes.
Partners should also be encouraged to explain why they 4. Develop more activities to mobilize religious resources
choose for a particular activity in a context with scarce for CT.
resources and this choice must be linked to the conflict 5. Be gender-sensitive.
analysis focusing on identifying transformation issues 6. Measure impact.
relating to attitude, behaviour and underlying struc-
tures. They should also explain in what ways they intend
to strengthen the capacities of local actors and what
consequences this might have on the transformation
of the conflict. The bottom line is that partners need to
reflect and describe what their expectations are with
regard to the contribution to conflict transformation.
What impact will they have? In what way does it address
proximate and underlying causes? The ultimate question
in CT remains: In using the conflict as an opportunity to
create social change, what did we achieve?

MEASURING OUTCOME OR IMPACT:

It is crucial to identify, based upon the above, what the
intended outcome and impact will be and to allocate
time and resources to measure this. While measuring
transformation is not the easiest thing to do, the CT pro-
gramme has aims and it can be measured in which way
the ICCO funded projects influenced and contributed

25
 Annex A Recommendations to improve CT
Based upon the baseline on CT in 2006

1. There is an overall lack of impact indicators and therefore a lack of measuring impact. This is one of the most
urgent issues to address for ICCO.
2. The necessity to work on all 3 corners of the conflict triangle (behaviour, attitude and context).
3. To undertake one national and several local conflict analyses and to base the strategy on the outcome, with a
special focus on addressing root causes and underlying structures of the specific conflict(s).
4. To implement a comprehensive set of conflict transformation focused activities in one country.
5. To ensure that all levels of actors are involved and to ensure that linkages between these actors are established
and strengthened, horizontally as well as vertically.
6. To establish internal partnerships within ICCO (democratization, human rights, transitional support but also
basic services, Fair Economic Development, etc.) and external partnerships in order to ensure effective implemen-
tation of the conflict transformation strategy.
7. To focus on transforming negative relationships and violent political, social, religious and economic structures,
also building on the organization’s strength to work with and through religious organizations in achieving this
goal.
8. Conflict analysis needs to be more thorough, in-depth and detailed and should explicitly inform strategy and poli-
cies. It is advised to do this in close consultation with the partners, possibly through a workshop with all partners
at the national levels. The existing conflict analysis manual should be rewritten into a more practical and applica-
ble tool.
9. ICCO needs to work more on underlying structures and root causes of conflict in order to further evolve from
conflict resolution to conflict transformation.
10. ICCO does not work with private sector actors which should be developed as part of working on economic empow-
erment but also to lay the foundations for future FED, etc., work.
11. ICCO should recognize its potential to mobilize religion as a vehicle for peace-building and social change proc-
esses.
12. In its programmes, ICCO should pay more attention to the linking between Track 1, 2 and 3 actors.
13. Gender dimensions of CT should be brought out more systematically in conflict analysis, strategies, activities and
impact evaluations.
14. ICCO should engage youth organizations as partners in order to ensure their inclusion in the CT strategy and
programmes.
15. ICCO is advised to start working on economic development at the very early stages of CT, as it is a root cause to
many conflicts and is one of the causes of continuous asymmetric relationships which again fuel frustration and
hatred that might result in violent behaviour.
16. Increasing work on context will be a challenge as these are huge issues, and addressing them requires more seri-
ous investments. Partnering with other actors and influencing their policies might be one approach to this, but
also additional resource mobilization through the UN and other actors in the countries should be developed.

26
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27
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