Economic Outlook 2023

Our 28th Annual Survey of Canadians’

Expectations for the Economy and their
Personal Finances in the Year Ahead

Conducted December 2022| Released January 2023

The 28th wave of Canada’s longest-running
study of the public’s perceptions and
Number of
expectations of the economy and their Region Interviews
Margin of
error*
personal financial situation (Unweighted)

Newfoundland &
300 ± 5.7%
Methodology Labrador
Online survey of randomly-selected sample of 4,020 adult Nova Scotia 305 ± 5.6%
(18+) Canadians
Prince Edward Island 51 ± 13.7%
New Brunswick 300 ± 5.7%
Field Window
December 8th to 20th, 2022 Quebec 701 ± 3.8%
Ontario 807 ± 3.5%
Reliability (*) Manitoba 306 ± 5.7%
Online samples cannot be assigned a margin of error. As a
guideline, a probability sample of this size carries a margin Saskatchewan 298 ± 5.8%
of error of ± 1.6%, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error Alberta 451 ± 4.7%
is larger for sub-segments.
British Columbia 501 ± 4.5%
The data was weighted by the most current gender, age, &
Canada 4,020 ± 1.6%
region Census data, to ensure the sample reflects the
actual population of adult Canadians.
 Key Findings: 3

The Canadian Economy

▪ Canadians are the most pessimistic about the
economy they have been in 14 years. More than
eight-in-ten (83%) feel the economy is in a recession, 17
points higher than this time last year.
▪ “Worried” is the emotion used most by Canadians to

83%
describe how they feel about the economy. Two-
thirds (66%) feel this way, a 9-point increase from last
year.
of Canadians feel the
▪ The majority (56%) of Canadians expect the
economy is in a
recession – the highest
economy to worsen next year, with only 14%
percentage who have expecting it to improve.
felt this way since 2009
▪ Canadians also expect the global economy to worsen
next year (54%). They are not quite as down on the US
economy, but their outlook is still more negative than
positive there (worsen 42% / improve 13%).
 Key Findings: 4

Personal Finances
▪ Four-in-ten (38%) Canadians feel they are losing ground when
it comes to their personal finances, a 13-point increase since
last year. Not since 2008 have so many Canadians felt they
were losing ground.
▪ Though Canadians are not quite as negative about their

46%
personal finances as about the country’s economy, the
majority (52%) are worried about their financial situation,
up from 41% last year.
of Canadians are very
▪ The cost of food is the largest stress point for Canadians,
stressed about the cost
with 46% considering it a major source of stress. This is
of food, up 8 points
from last year followed by housing expenses (34%) and the cost of gas at the
pump (30%).
▪ Despite their pessimism about Canada’s economy, Canadians
are confident about their job security. Only one-in-five believe
it is likely they or someone in their household will lose their
job in the next 12 months.
The Canadian Public’s
Macro Outlook
The Economy
 Since
2023
2022

Worried 66%
Emotional
+9
83% of Canadians feel
at least one negative Upset +19 43%

Association with
emotion about the
economy – a 10-point Sad +12 39%
increase since 2022

the Economy Pessimistic +6 39%

25% of Canadians feel Resigned -1 24%

at least one positive
Canadians’ feelings about the economy emotion about the Ashamed +2 18%
have steadily worsened since the onset of economy – a 12-point
COVID. In 2020, 62% felt at least one drop since 2022 Optimistic -8 14%
negative emotion about the economy, with
that figure rising to 73% in 2021. By the
Calm -7 12%
end of 2022, the percentage of Manitobans (87%) and Confident -7 10%
Canadians that felt negative about the Saskatchewanians
economy was up another 10%, to 83% of (90%) are more likely Bored 0 10%
to have at least one
Canadians.
negative emotion Proud -2
3%
about the Canadian
economy. Inspired -3 3%

Happy -2 2%

“Please click up to a maximum of 4 words that best describe the Excited -3 2%

feelings that you have about Canada’s economy. If you don’t
have any feelings about this, please click that option.” Multiple No feeling -3 8%
responses accepted. Therefore, total adds up to more than 100%.
Perceptions of Canada’s Economy: 7
Canadians have been in a psychological recession since 2019. The public’s outlook is the most negative it has been since the start of
the 2008 financial crisis.

100% 91%
90% 85% 83%
80% 81%
78% 76%
80% 71% 70%
67% 66% 65% 65% 66%
70%
60%
57% 56%
60% 52% 53% 54% 52%
50%
47%
50% 45% 40% 41%
36% 34%
40% 44% 32% 37%
29%
26% 26% 28% 25% 35%
30% 22% 23%
17% 15% 15%
20% 14%
9% 10%
6%
10%
0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

“Which of the following best describes

how you feel about Canada’s economy?
Is the economy in a severe recession, a
mild recession, a period of moderate
85%
Those earning $100k+ are more likely to
GROWTH

RECESSION

growth, or a period of strong growth?” feel the economy is in a recession (85%)

Not Shown In Chart: 8% Don’t Know/Unsure than those earning less than $25k (74%).
Perceptions of Canada’s Economy – Intensity: 8
Though more Canadians now feel we are in a recession than at any point since 2009, the majority still characterize it as a “mild”
recession (56%) rather than a “severe” recession (27%).

80%
68%
70% 64% 63%
61%
56% 58%
60% 56%
51% 49%
47% 48% 48% 47%
50% 44%
39% 40% 41%
40% 36%
33% 32%
29% 30% 30%
27% 25% 20% 27%
30%
17% 14% 18% 19%
20% 12% 14%
9% 8% 10% 9% 8% 9%
5% 7% 5% 6%
10% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2%
0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

“Which of the following best describes how you

feel about Canada’s economy? Is the economy in
a severe recession, a mild recession, a period of
+8%
Change in the percentage of
STRONG GROWTH

MODERATE GROWTH

moderate growth, or a period of strong growth?” Canadians that feel the MILD RECESSION
Not Shown In Chart: 8% Don’t Know/Unsure economy is in a severe recession
in 2023 (27%) compared to 2022 SEVERE RECESSION
(19%)
 Perceptions of Canada’s Economy – Regional: 9

Among all Canadians,

83% feel Canada is in
Growth 13%
a Recession and 10%
Recession feel it is in a period of
NFLD
growth.

79%

11%
11% 10% 5% 10% 7%

8% 9% NS
BC AB SK MB QC

NB
ON 86%
80% 80% 84% 81% 83%
81%
85%
Expectations for Next 12 Months 10
A majority of Canadians have a negative outlook for Canada’s economy. Canadians are more pessimistic about the Canadian
economy (56% believe it will worsen) than the global economy (54%), the U.S. economy (42%), or the stock market (43%). Canadians
still have relative optimism about Canada’s employment situation, although this area experienced the largest decline in sentiment
compared to 2022.
Change in Perceptions
DON'T KNOW WORSEN NOT CHANGE IMPROVE of Improvement
vs. 2022

Canada's Economy 10% 56% 21% 14% -9

-13 since 2021

Canada’s Employment -13

Situation 12% 38% 32% 18% -13 since 2021

The Stock Market 23% 43% 20% 15% -8

-12 since 2021

The U.S Economy -7

23% 42% 21% 13% -11 since 2021

The Global Economy -8

15% 54% 20% 11% -12 since 2021

“Over the next twelve months, do you expect each of the following to improve, worsen, or not change?”
The Canadian Public’s
Micro Outlook
Personal Finances
 Since
2022 2023

Emotional 46% of Canadians feel

at least one positive
Worried +11 52%

Association emotion about their

personal financial
situation – a 14-point
Upset +15 33%

with Personal drop since 2022.

Sad +10 29%

Calm -9 27%

Finances 70% of Canadians feel

at least one negative
Pessimistic +6 27%

More Canadians feel at least one positive emotion about their Optimistic -12 25%
emotion when they think of their personal financial
personal finances (46%) than when they situation – a 16-point Confident -9 23%
think of the Canadian economy (25%). increase since 2022.
Resigned +6 22%
That said, there has been a sharp rise in
negative sentiment over the past year. Quebecers (57%) are Ashamed +4 14%
more likely to feel
Notably, the majority (52%) of Canadians Happy -8 11%
positive emotions. Men
are now worried about their personal are more likely to feel
finances, amidst high inflation rates and some positive emotions Proud -6 10%
media/expert speculation about an (53%) than women
economic downturn next year. (41%). Bored -1 8%

Inspired -2 5%

“Please click up to a maximum of 4 words that best

describe the feelings that you have about your personal Excited -3 4%
financial situation. If you don’t have any feelings about
this, please click that option.” Multiple responses No feeling about this -1% 6%
accepted. Therefore, total adds up to more than 100%.
Perceived Personal Financial Situation: 13
Canadians have not been this pessimistic about their personal financial situation since 2008.

60% 55% 57%

53% 53% 53% 54% 54%
52% 51% 50% 49% 50%
47% 47% 48%
50% 45% 46% 45%
44% 44%
42% 42%
40% 36% 39% 36%
33% 34% 33%
32% 31% 32%
30% 38%
27% 28%
30% 27% 25% 26% 25%
23% 24% 25% 24% 23%
21% 22%
19% 20%
24% 17% 18% 18%
20% 16%
22% 23% 20% 21% 13% 15%
20% 18% 17% 12% 20%
18%
10%

0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

“Thinking of your overall

financial situation, over the
past few years, would you say Quebec (38%) residents are most
33%
Of those aged 18-34 say they are
GETTING AHEAD
you are getting ahead, holding likely to be getting ahead, with losing ground, compared to 39% of HOLDING YOUR OWN
your own or losing ground?” Saskatchewan (5%) and Manitoba those 35 and above. Canadians aged
Not Shown In Chart: 3% Don’t
(5%) residents the least likely to be 35-49 are the least likely to be getting LOSING GROUND
know.
getting ahead ahead (12%).
Household Income vs. Cost of Living: 14
For the first time since 2008 – and only the second time in our 28 years of tracking - half (50%) of Canadians feel their household income
will fall behind the pace of the cost of living. This sentiment is highest in British Columbia (63%) and among women aged 35-49 (57%)

60% 55%
50% 51% 50% 51% 50% 50%
45% 49% 47% 48% 48% 49% 50% 49% 50% 48% 50%
50% 46% 47% 47% 46% 46%
44% 45% 44% 45% 43%
43% 42% 42% 44% 43% 44%
41% 41% 41% 42% 41%
38% 39% 38%
37% 37% 38% 42% 39%
40% 35% 42% 35% 35% 36%
32% 33% 33%
29%
30%

20%
12% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12%
9% 8% 9% 8% 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 9% 8% 8%
10% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10%
10% 6% 7% 8%

0%

“Thinking about next year, do you

think that your household income
in 2023 will...?”
Not Shown In Chart: 7% Don’t
63% 41% MORE THAN KEEP PACE

KEEP PACE
of British Columbians and 62% of Those aged 18-34 are most likely to
know/Unsure. those from Nova Scotia are falling say will be keeping pace with the cost
behind the cost of living, the highest of living; Canadians aged 50-64 (55%) FALL BEHIND
rates in the country are most likely to fall behind.
 Cost of Living Stressors:
The cost of food at the grocery store is a major source of stress for 46% of Canadians, up 8 points from last year. It is a larger stress
point in rural (55%) than urban (44%) communities, and a larger stress point among women (52%) than men (39%).

Source Of
DON’T KNOW
NOT NOT A MINOR MODERATE MAJOR Stress
APPLICABLE SOURCE SOURCE SOURCE SOURCE (Major/Moderate)

The cost of food at the grocery store 5% 16% 31% 46% 77%
Housing expenses such as rent, mortgage, property taxes, etc. 5% 13% 20% 25% 34% 59%
The cost of gas at the pump 7% 9% 21% 30% 30% 60%
Income taxes 3% 18% 25% 29% 21% 50%
Electricity bills 6% 17% 26% 28% 20% 48%
Loan or debt repayments 22% 19% 18% 17% 20% 37% “For each of the following
items related to the cost of
Telecom bills, including cable TV, internet, phone services 1% 18% 29% 31% 18% 49% living, please indicate if it is a
major source of stress, a
Home improvement/maintenance costs 14% 16% 23% 24% 18% 42% moderate source of stress, a
7% 22% 25% 24% 17% minor source of stress, or not
Health care costs not including prescriptions 41% a source of stress at all for
2% 19% 32% 27% 16% you and your household.”
Sales taxes 43%
Auto insurance premiums 8% 19% 27% 26% 16% 42%
The cost of prescription medications 8% 28% 26% 21% 14% 35%
Education expenses and tuition 43% 19% 11% 12% 13% 25%
Life, disability, and critical illness insurance premiums 18% 28% 21% 16% 11% 27%
Childcare, day care, and related costs 54% 16% 9% 9% 8% 17%
Cost of Living Stressors – Age Categories:
The cost of food at the grocery store is the most significant source of stress across
all age groups. Housing expenses are a larger stress point for those under 50.

18-34 year olds 35-49 year olds

1. Food (42%) 1. Food (55%)

2. Housing (36%) 2. Housing (43%)
3. Gas (28%) 3. Gas (34%)
4. Education (23%) 4. Loans/Debt (30%)
5. Loans/Debt (21%) 5. Electricity (28%)

50-64 year olds 65 and

1. Food (44%) 1. Food (43%)

2. Housing (31%) 2. Gas (28%)
3. Gas (30%) 3. Housing (28%)
4. Income tax (21%) 4. Telecom bills (19%)
5. Telecom bills (19%) 5. Home renos/repairs (18%)

“For each of the following items related to the cost of living, please indicate if it is a major source of stress, a moderate source of
stress, a minor source of stress, or not a source of stress at all for you and your household.” (% major source graphed)
Job Loss Expectations: 17
Despite the overwhelming pessimism towards Canada’s economy, Canadians are confident about their job security. Only one-in-five say
it is likely they or someone in their household will lose their job in the next 12 months, the lowest proportion of Canadians in 15 years.

40%
35%
34% 33% 33%
35% 32% 31% 32%
29% 29%
30% 27% 28% 26%
25% 25%
23% 22% 23% 24% 22% 22% 22%
25%
19% 19% 25% 25% 20%
20%
19%
15% 16%

10% % who say it is very or somewhat likely

5% they or someone in their household
may lose his/her job in the next 12 months
0%

5% 28%
“How likely do you think it
is that you or a member of
your immediate family may
Those aged 18-34 (26%) are most
lose his or her job in the of Canadians think it is very likely worried about job losses in the next of Saskatchewan residents expect job
next twelve months?” they or a family member will 12 months. Men (21%) are slightly losses in the next 12 months, followed by
lose their job in the next 12 more worried about losing their jobs Newfoundland and Labrador (27%) and
months. than women (19%) Alberta (26%).
Media Spokesperson:
Dan Arnold, Chief Strategy Officer
[email protected]