Chapter 15

Deterrence,
Routine Activity,
and Rational Choice Theories
by
Rick Linden
University of Manitoba
Daniel J. Koenig
Formerly of University of Victoria

Slides prepared by
Stephen Schneider
Saint Mary’s University

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 Introduction

Deterrence Rational choice Routine

theories theory activities theory

Certain factors Crime will not

influence an occur unless
individual’s People break the there is a
decision to law because they motivated
commit a crime believe crime offender, a
and the legal will provide a suitable target,
system can be reward. and ineffective
used to affect guardianship of
that decision. that target.

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 Learning Objectives
• Understand the role of law as a deterrent to crime
and recognize the limits of deterrence.
• Discuss how offenders make choices whether or not
to commit offences and understand the assumptions
of rational choice theory.
• Discuss the routine activities approach to crime, and
understand the roles of the motivated offender,
suitable target, and ineffective guardianship in any
•
criminal event.

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 Learning Objectives (cont.)

• Know the rationale underlying situational crime

prevention and be familiar with the research
demonstrating its effectiveness.
• Understand the need for comprehensive crime
prevention initiatives, including crime prevention
through social development.

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Deterrence Theory

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 Deterrence Theory

This is based on Beccaria’s Classical theory:

• People rationally calculate the consequences of
their behaviour.
• Thus, the best way to control crime is to set up a
system of punishments to prevent crime.
• For Beccaria, punishments should be severe
enough to deter people from breaking the law, but
they should also be proportionate to the nature of
the crime. Additionally, punishment should be
swift and certain.
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 Deterrence Theory

How effective is the law as a deterrent?

• Deterrence is effective to some extent.
– Most people do not want to be punished.
• However, research shows the certainty of
punishment is more important than the severity of
punishment.
• It is easier for governments to pass tougher
sentencing laws—for example, the Harper
government’s tough-on-crime laws—than to increase
the certainty of punishment.

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Does Imprisonment Deter
Crime? no
监禁能阻止犯罪吗？

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 Does Imprisonment Deter Crime?

• Long prison sentences “are difficult

Durlauf & to justify on a deterrence-based,
Nagin’s crime prevention basis.”
• Imprisonment may increase the
(2011b) rates of recidivism.
review of • Turning 18 in the United States
research when adult sentences take effect
has little deterrent effect on crime.

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 Discussion Question

Conduct your own research into whether prison

sentences—especially harsh prison sentences—actually deter crime.
Pay particular attention to research and statistics in the United
States, which has some of the toughest sentencing policies in the
developed world.

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 Do Mandatory Minimum
Sentences Deter Crime? yes
强制性最低刑罚是否可以阻
止犯罪？
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 Do Mandatory Minimum Sentences
Deter Crime?
• Mandatory sentences are widely used, but there has
been much debate about their effectiveness.
• California’s “three strikes” legislation of 1994 has
caused serious prison overcrowding and has cost an
additional $20 billion.
• Research findings: “there is insufficient credible
evidence to conclude that mandatory penalties have
significant deterrent effects”
强制性最低刑罚由国家立法机构而非司法系统通过的法律规定。

passed by country’s legislative body not judicial

system
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 Do Mandatory Minimum Sentences
Deter Crime?
Why don’t severe penalties deter crime?
为什么严厉的惩罚不能阻止犯罪？
• Offenders may ignore the risk of getting caught.
• The likelihood of being arrested, convicted, and punished
is so low that tinkering with the level of punishment
makes no difference.
• The rate of incarceration for crimes is so low that harsh
sentences only affect a small minority.
• Those with drug or alcohol problems are probably not
deterred.
• Some offenders are unaware of the sentence they face if
convicted.
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 Do Mandatory Minimum Sentences
Deter Crime?
• The biggest failure of mandatory sentencing and other deterrence
policies is the war on drugs.
– Even a high threat of death does not deter drug dealers.
• Prosecutors and judges find ways to evade mandatory minimum
sentences that they feel are too severe.
– For example, cases may be plea-bargained to lesser charges.
• Canadian courts have overturned parts of the Harper Government’s
tough-on-crime laws on the grounds they violate Charter rights.
• The existing level of punishment is severe enough for most people.

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 Discussion Question

Conduct your own research into whether mandatory minimum

sentences actually deter crime. Pay particular attention to research
and statistics in the United States on the impact of California’s three
strikes law and what impact, if any, it has had on crime rates. Also
address the question of whether mandatory minimum sentencing
impacts disproportionately on people of colour.

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The Impact of Increasing the
Certainty of Punishment
增加惩罚确定性的影响

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 The Impact of Increasing
the Certainty of Punishment
• A large body of research supports the deterrent
effect of increasing certainty.
• Hot spots policing
– Focusing police resources on high-crime areas can
reduce crime by increasing certainty of arrest.
• Individualized deterrence
– Directly informing individuals about the consequences
of future criminality and ensuring these promises are
kept can also have a deterrent effect.

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 The Impact of Increasing
the Certainty of Punishment
• Individualized deterrence: Operation Ceasefire 停
火行动
– This program was developed in Boston in response to
high homicide rates among young African-American
males.凶杀率下降
– Individuals were told that violent behaviour would not
be tolerated. They were also offered services to help
them get out of gang lifestyle.
– Police and other agencies emphasized these measures
to enhance the certainty of punishment.
– Research showed dramatic decline in homicide rate
while the program was in effect.

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 Discussion Question

Many of the issues discussed thus far in this chapter—deterrence,

imprisonment, and mandatory minimum sentences—were central to
the Harper federal Conservative government’s Safe Streets and
Communities Act (Bill C-10). A key goal of this legislation, according
to the government, was deterrence. Discuss and critically analyze
this legislation based on what you have learned thus far from
Chapter 15.

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Rational Choice Theory
理性选择理论

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 Rational Choice Theory

• This is based on offenders’ choices, including

– Their decision making in specific situations,
– Their perceptions of the risks and rewards of crime,
and
– How they selected targets and how they proceeded.
• The main thesis is that crime is the result of
deliberate choices made by offenders based on
their calculation of the risks and rewards.
• Research shows that the short-term costs and
benefits are more important than long-term
considerations.

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 Discussion Question

Critically analyze rational choice theory. What are its strengths

& weaknesses?

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 Rational Choice Theory

Environmental Criminology 观察罪犯日常活动的场所

• Environmental criminology examines the target search
process of offenders that precedes involvement in a crime.
• The focus is on environmental opportunities along the paths
travelled in criminals’ daily routines. Offenders are more likely
to commit offences along these paths.
• Crime patterns are analyzed in terms of the following:
– Nodes节点: places frequented by the criminal 经常光顾的地方
– Paths: routes between nodes 这些地点之间的路径
– Edges: boundaries between different types of land use, where
social control may be weaker or targets attractive
不同场所的行为举止（哪些是放松警惕和狡猾的）

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Routine Activities Theory

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 Routine Activities Theory

• This theory developed from research on

patterns of crime and victimization.
• Lifestyle/exposure theory
– Some people put themselves in social settings
with a high risk of victimization, for example, by
• Spending a lot of evenings in public places, or
• Being a sex worker on the streets.
– Some people are more likely to be repeatedly
victimized.

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 Routine Activities Theory

• Three factors must be present for

crime to occur:
• Motivated offender
• Suitable target
Routine • Lack of guardianship of the target
activities 有动机的罪犯
合适的目标
approach 缺乏对目标的监护
• Changes in any of these factors can
lead to an increase or decrease in
crime.

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Figure 15.1: The Routine Activities Approach

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 Routine Activities Theory

Suitable targets
• An increase in the number, value, or accessibility of
suitable targets can result in increases in crime.
Unless small, attractive items are protected, theft
rates increase as these items became more common.
• Effective guardianship: changes in guardianship
affect crime rates.
• Interviews with offenders showed that risk factors are
the major consideration in target suitability.

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 Routine Activities Theory

• The routine activities perspective has been

modified to incorporate two additional variables.
• Occurrence or prevention of a crime also
depends on the presence of
– Intimate handlers: someone who has intimate
knowledge of the potential offender to control him or
her
– Crime facilitators: physical facilitators (guns, knives,
etc.), social facilitators (negative peer influences), or
chemical facilitators (drugs, liquor).

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The Diverse Attractions of
Crime
犯罪的多样化吸引力

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 The Diverse Attractions of Crime

Critics of rational • Theories do not account for

expressive crimes involving strong
choice theory
emotions. 没有考虑万一罪犯是情
and routine 绪激动无法冷静思考的人（一般
activities theory 犯罪都是如此）

Defenders argue • However, they also realize that the

that attractions of crime are diverse and
“opportunities that motivations for criminal
causes crime” behaviour are complex.

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Table 15.1: Deterrence, Routine Activity, and
Rational Choice Theories

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Policy Implications:
Preventing Crime
预防犯罪

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 Situational Crime Prevention

Opportunities for crime can be reduced by

1. Increasing the effort required to commit a crime by target
hardening or by controlling access to targets or the tools
2. Increasing the risks by increasing levels of formal or
informal surveillance or guardianship.
3. Reducing the rewards by identifying property to facilitate
recovery, by removing targets, or by denying the benefits
of crime
4. Reducing provocations by controlling for peer pressure or
by reducing frustration or conflict
5. Removing excuses by setting clear rules and limits

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Table 15.2: Ronald Clarke's 25 Techniques of
Situational Prevention

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 Discussion Question

Critically analyze situational crime prevention. What are its

strengths and weaknesses?

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 Reducing Motivated Offenders
Crime can be prevented through social development:
• It can reduce the pool of motivated offenders by altering the
high-risk conditions that breed criminal behaviour.
• Some approaches include the following:
– Improve the parenting skills of high-risk parents.
– Provide job training and employment for young people who are
cut off from the labour market.
• Social development strategies often target young people, who
are the most amenable to intervention and who make up the
next generation of offenders.

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 Reducing Motivated Offenders

• Poor black children aged 3–4

attended preschool for 30 weeks.
Perry • At age 40, they showed lower arrest
Preschool rates and better social results all
Project in around, compared to a control group.
• Social savings were estimated at $17
Michigan for every dollar spent on the
program.

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 The Need for Comprehensive
Crime Prevention Initiatives
• Critics of situational crime prevention fear a “fortress society”
or a “big brother” state.
• The most sensible strategy is a comprehensive one that involves
situational and developmental approaches. For example, such a
strategy would
– Involve different levels of government and other agencies
– Target communities where it is most needed
– Use a broad range of prevention approaches tailored to the
specific needs of communities
– Draw upon programs that have been shown to be effective in
other places

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 The Need for Comprehensive
Crime Prevention Initiatives
paying more attention to people as opposed to places in their quest to reduce
and prevent crime.
• Winnipeg Auto Theft Suppression Strategy
– Effective guardianship: youth were contacted every
day by youth probation; those who violated their
conditions of release were immediately apprehended.
– Target suitability: electronic vehicle immobilizers
were provided for the 100,000 most at-risk vehicles.
– Motivated offenders: social causes of auto theft were
addressed by working with young people and their
families.
• This program was effective in reducing auto theft.

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 Discussion Question

Based on what you have learned from this chapter what are the
essential elements of a comprehensive crime prevention
strategy for your city or neighbourhood?

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 Summary
• Deterrence theories focus on the factors influencing an
individual’s decision to commit an offence and assert that
the legal system can be used to affect that decision.
– Increasing the severity of current laws is not likely to have
an impact on crime rates.
– However, increasing the certainty of punishment can
reduce crime, particularly through programs targeted at
frequent offenders.

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 Summary

• Rational choice theory assumes that people commit

crimes because of perceived rewards.
– A person’s decision to commit a crime may or may not
appear rational, but it does meet a goal for the offender.
• Routine activities theory posits that crime results from
the simultaneous presence of a motivated offender, a
suitable target, and ineffective guardianship.
– This approach was used to develop lifestyle/exposure theory,
which posits that lifestyle and activities of some people place
them at higher risk for crime victimization.

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 Summary

• The routine activities approach leads to a number of

crime reduction strategies.
– These include situational measures, crime prevention
through social development, and incapacitation of
high-rate offenders
• The most effective way to reduce crime is to implement
comprehensive crime prevention programs that focus on
social developmental and situational measures.

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