ECONOMIC IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON EMPLOYMENT IN MANUFACTURING

INDUSTRY

ABSTRACT- 150 to 200 words

Unemployment is one economic impact to that country which is unable to provide employment
opportunity to people by government. The purpose of this study is to understand the impact of
Covid-19 on employment. This is to show majority of manufacturing sectors take places of high
unemployment many lost their jobs, where the manufacturing sectors was not functioning.

Keywords: Employment, Unemployment, COVID-19,

INTRODUCTION =< 300

The Manufacturing sector in Indian where affected due to the pandemic COVID-19 lockdown
period was a dark site for workers over manufacturing sector. As many workers vacated to their
hometown from that all the sector work stopped due to this lockdown period. As the case many
MSME where effected the small business units where effected as the impact of this, Some of
the business where forced to go leave their job on some places the companies could pay them
salaries (or) wages, Even though the workers of some manufacturing company was paying
some workers only for some workers.

The ongoing lockdown has put a lot of strain on the manufacturing industry, which contributes
almost 20% of the GDP. Of this, 50% is contributed by the auto industry. Even prior to the
lockdown, the auto industry was not in a great shape, with sales down by more than 15% and
production cuts of the order of 5 to 10% or more. In the unorganized industry, the situation was
much worse, as the uncertainty would impact smaller organizations with lesser retentive power,
due to their lower profitability. This is somewhat similar to the ‘root beer game’ effect in
Operations Management parlance, where an event in the market can lead to highly amplified
response from the suppliers, leading to short term overproduction and medium term discount
sales. Choking of distribution channels due to this effect are not unknown and goods tend to get
offloaded at lower prices, providing volume support, but hitting the profit and profitability.
(Manufacteringtoday India, June 2020)
It has now emerged that COVID-19 pandemic is not only a global health emergency, but is also
leading to a major global economic downturn. In this paper, we have made an effort to provide
results on how this economic downturn is going to affect employability, and the long term
repercussions on employment. We start by providing evidence that the effect of the current
crises on employability of men and woman are likely to be sharply distinct from those of other
economic downturns, job losses were much higher than for woman’s, one reason is that
relatively more than men work in industries heavily affected by a “standard” downturn (such as
manufacturing and construction), where woman’s employment are concentrated in less cyclical
sectors such as health care education. In mean while the hospital where in demand for doctors
and nurse for service for the pandemic COVID-19. () A sizeable literature documents that loss
in earnings due to job losses are highly persistent and much severe when they occur in
recessions. ()

The U.S. has seen a huge spike in unemployment as over 26 million people have claimed for
State support because of losing their jobs. Experts often rue the absence of a good measurement
of jobs in India, which is predominantly an unorganized-sector led economy.

CMIE’s weekly series of data pointed to a steady increase in unemployment since the start of
the COVID-19 pandemic in India, with the week to 29th March 2020, showing the sharpest
spike to 23.81%. As per CMIE’s data, the monthly unemployment rate in April stood at
23.52%, up from 8.74% in March. By the end of April, Puducherry in South India had the
highest percentage of unemployment at 75.8%, followed by its neighboring state Tamil Nadu
with 49.8%, Jharkhand 47.1% and Bihar 46.6%. Maharashtra’s unemployment rate was pegged
at 20.9% by the CMIE, while the same for Haryana stood at 43.2%, Uttar Pradesh at 21.5% and
Karnataka at 29.8%. Hilly States had the lowest incidence of unemployment as of April, the
think tank said, pointing out that the rate in Himachal Pradesh stood at 2.2%, Sikkim at 2.3%
and Uttara hand at 6.5%. (THE.HINDU, May 5,2020). This was possibly a result of a decrease
in demand as well as the disruption of workforce faced by companies. Furthermore, this caused
a GVA loss of more than nine percent for the Indian economy that month. () Lockdown resulted
in enormous job losses, specifically impacting the lower economic strata of the society. ()
The Finance Minister, Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman, on 26 March 2020 announced a relief package
of INR 1.70 Lac Crore, under the Pradhan Mantri GaribKaylan Yojana, especially for the
underprivileged and poor population of the country. This includes the Government contributing
both the employer’s and employee’s share of the provident fund contributions for the next three
months in respect of the establishments/organization’s with up to 100 workers, where a
majority of the employees draw a monthly salary of INR 15,000 or less.

The Employees’ Provident Fund Scheme, 1952 has been amended to include pandemic as a
reason to allow withdrawal up to 75% of the non-refundable advance standing to the credit of
the employees in the provident fund accounts or three months basic wages and dearness
allowance, whichever is lower.

Unemployment is one of the major problems of India. Exploring the current situation of
unemployment in the country, Dr.Veni Nair, Assistant Director, ITM Business School, Navi
Mumbai, also observes the reason of unemployment in the country for Elects News Network
(ENN).

In light of above discussion the purpose of the study is to understand the impact of COVID-19
pandemic on employment.

REVIEW OF LITERATURE – 5-7 Reviews

Rahul Anand and Purva Khera (2016), In their article titled “Unemployment and
covid” investigated that around 10% in one week were unemployed.

It shows that in India the investigation the impact of product market deregulation and labor
market deregulation on output, unemployment, and informality in India. India has impacted
due unemployment rate shows more compared to other higher developing countries and to
over to achieve this goal, we have constructed a two-sector small open economy New
Keynesian DSGE model with informality in both goods and labor markets. Our model
integrates the literature on market deregulation with the literature on informality, within a
unified theoretical framework. Informality stems from higher rigidities in the formal sector,
modeled as higher firm entry costs, higher labor hiring costs.
Hauwa Buba Jajere (2016), this research depicts the effect of unemployment on Economic
growth in Nigeria, using Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a proxy for Economic growth. The
growth which is being affected due to this effect of employability where the economic crises
are being faced and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was regressed on Unemployment rate,
the result also shows that unemployment does not significantly affect economic growth, but a
good performance of an economy in terms of per capita growth may therefore be attributed to
the other factors in the country.

Nuno Fernandes (2020), reiterates that people are being affected due to COVID 19 lockdown.
23% of the people lost their jobs in US. Judging from prior recessions, a decline in GDP will
significantly increase unemployment, and public deficits. Overall, this scenario would lead to
an average growth rate -2.5% by November 2020. This is far below the +3% growth rate in
2019. In the last week of March 2020, 6.7 million U.S. workers filed for unemployment
benefits as against previous maximum of less than 700,000.

Praveen S. Kambar, Ciciel Dewan (2018), In this the research tells about the If the rising
generation is demoralized and degenerated under the impact of unemployment then this will
create a major hindrance for country’s progress and it simply leads to underutilization of human
capital. The unemployment problem, especially among the educated youth of India, should be
given a serious consideration by the government, as the youth of today are the pillars of the
nation in future.

Research Gap.

Ther are many researches done in other countries I hereby would like to fill the geographical
gap

OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY -2-3

The main objective of the study is to understand the impact of COVID-19 on employment.
HYPOTHESIS- 2

RESEARCH DESIGN -100 words

Descriptive and Exploratory research methodology has been incorporated for the present study.

Primary data as collected by means of structured questionnaire. Data was gathered from the
sample unit considered for Research. Questionnaire was used as research instrument for data
collection.

Information will be collected from within different survey report, Journal relating to the and
from the authorized union’s website theoretical information from significant text book also
served as secondary data.

1. Research Methodology
2. Source of data collection
3. Sample framework
4. Tool for data collection
5. Satistical tools used for analysis

MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY & COVID ( Use this for Conclusion, Abstract and
Discussion)

The effect of the Corona virus on the monetary situation of manufacturing companies in the
organized sector. For example, let us consider a company earning a PAT over Sales of 12% per
annum, which is 1% per month. Of course this assumes a regular profit flow, unlike in the case
of seasonal industries, like automobiles to umbrellas, which earn a large percentage of their
profits during the prime seasons.

Of the 1%, if we assume that, due to the Corona effect, the company starts losing money, and
that, during a two-month period covering 15 days on either side of the lockdown period of one
month, the overall loss could be 2%+. Let’s say, this is 3%. To recover and come back to
normal, it may take, say, two months. Thus, the Corona effect has adversely affected the
profitability of the company to the extent of about 30% of its annual profit. When we say 30%,
we take into account two effects – one, the numerator, which is the profit, and two, the
denominator, the sales turnover. The ‘sales compensation’ effect can happen soon after the
lockdown is lifted, which means deferred sales are now catered to, and hence, the overall sales
for the year could be the same or a little less than the previous year – point to note, growth is
ZERO.

Hence, a company should strategically plan to at least save its sales, and, at the last resort, grow
revenues. Having said that, what about the profit. Here is where the story of each company
could differ. And herein lies the proverbial rub.

Manufacturing and construction, the biggest employers among industries, are the most
vulnerable for job losses, followed by accommodation and food services, as the lockdown to
contain the Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted economic activity, according to Crisil Ratings.
Industrial workforce is expected to see the highest job cuts because of the restrictions, the
research and ratings company said in teleconference while releasing the report. While India
lacks an official index on jobs, Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy has estimated India’s
unemployment rate at 29.4 percent in rural areas and at 25 percent in urban areas for the week
ended April 26 as lack of movement of manpower and goods froze the economy.

Bulk of the job losses in India’s workforce will be largely in the informal sector that employs
about 90 percent of the 46.5 crore active working population, according to Crisil. This includes
casual laborers, majority of the self-employed, and part of regular wage or salary earners
working on contract in the organized sector. The country’s manufacturing sector activity
witnessed unprecedented contraction in April amid national lockdown restrictions, following
which new business orders collapsed at a record pace and firms sharply reduced their staff
numbers, a monthly survey.

The headline seasonally adjusted IHS Market India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index
(PMI) fell to 27.4 in April, from 51.8 in March, reflecting the sharpest deterioration in business
conditions across the sector since data collection began over 15 years ago. The index slipped
into contraction mode, after remaining in the growth territory for 32 consecutive months. Amid
widespread business closures, demand conditions were severely hampered in April. New orders
fell for the first time in two-and-a-half years and at the sharpest rate in the survey’s history, far
outpacing that seen during the global financial crisis. “After making it through March relatively
unscathed, the Indian manufacturing sector felt the full force of the coronavirus pandemic in
April”.

the automobile, textile and engineering industries, among others, depend primarily on outstation
employees for working their plants. “Such workers may need some time to get back to
Bangalore where our production base is as inter-district or interstate travel is also curtailed
during the lockdown, “Clothing manufacturers in the NCR anticipate a peculiar problem. Many
of their workers were unable to go home and were stuck in the city. When the lockdown lifts,
they are likely to go home, creating a worker shortage. (ECONOMICTIMES.INDIATIMES,
April 10, 2020)

VULNERABILITY OF INDIAN WORKFORCE

The below graph shows the vulnerability of Indian workforce as analysed by CRISIL during the
COVID-19 pandemic Lockdown. It depicts the impact of lockdown on employment across
different sectors in India.
 Sources:

(“bloombergquint.com”, April 30, 2020)

According to the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), over 50 per cent of the tourism and
hospitality industry may be rendered sick with about 20 million losing their jobs, if the industry
does not recover by October this year. It is reported that, the National Sample Survey (NSS)
and Periodic Labor Force Surveys (PLFS) estimate that the coronavirus outbreak has put about
136 million non-agricultural jobs at risk. Casual laborers, daily-wage earners, people employed
by non-registered Nano businesses, and others who work without any formal contracts are most
likely to be rendered jobless. Even the self-employed are at risk.

INDIAN GOVERNMENT HELP THE WORKERS AFFECTED BY CORNOVIRUS

UNDER UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS

The Union government has planned to give benefits to a section of organized workers, This
kind of measures are taken in some countries like United states to combat the impact of the
pandemic. In Indian government the workers are benefited under “Atal Beema Vyakti Kaylan
Yojana” which provides the unemployment insurance to the workers. Who have subscribed to
the Employees’ State Insurance (ESI) scheme, will cover such workers during the pandemic.
The ESI is a self-financing health insurance scheme for formal sector workers in India managed
by the Employees State Insurance Corporation (ESIC). Under the scheme workers who become
unemployed get compensation in the form of cash up to three months of unemployment.
Workers who become unemployed get compensation in the form of cash up to three months of
unemployment. But this can be availed only once in a lifetime.

Workers get cash to the tune of 25 per cent of the average salary that they were getting in the
last two years of their job under this scheme. However, an important condition for workers to
get the unemployment benefit is that they should have been a subscriber of the ESIC for at least
two years. When the scheme was made effective in July 2018, around 1 million workers were
eligible. The International Labor Organization (ILO) has estimated that up to 25 million people
might become unemployed worldwide due to the impact of COVID-19. It projected a range
with 5.3 million job losses on a ‘low scenario’ and 24.7 million on a ‘high scenario’. During the
global financial crisis of 2008-09, an estimated 22 million people had lost their jobs, according
to the ILO. ( Somesh Jha, 20th March 2020)

The government move over this is good benefit to workers who are leaving from other states
because the life time is being affected due to this pandemic COVID-19 lockdown, such as that
his day-to-day workers and labor, where effected during this lockdown period. The insurance
will help the people and workers and their family to be benefited by the family members, as
they earn

COMPARISION OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN INDIA OF BEFORE LOCKDOWN

AND AFTER LOCKDOWN

The unemployment rate in India rose to 7.8 percent in February 2020, the highest since last
October, from 7.2 percent in the previous month. In rural areas, the rate increased to 7.4 percent
from 6.0 percent in January, while in urban areas, it fell to 8.7 percent from 9.7 percent. The
highest jobless rates were recorded in Tripura (28.4 percent), Haryana (25.8 percent) and
Jammu & Kashmir (22.2 percent), while the lowest were recorded in Puducherry (1.8 percent),
Tamil Nadu (2.1 percent) and Goa (2.8 percent).

TABLE 1: Unemployment rate (%) in India from the March 2019 to February 2020.

(Sources: TRADINGECONOMICS. COM, April, 2020)

ACTUAL PREVIOUS HIGHEST LOWEST DATES UNIT FREQUENCY

7.80 7.20 8.20 6.70 2018- percent Monthly
2020
India Labor Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Unemployment 7.80 7.20 8.20 6.70 percent [+]
Rate
Labor Force 49.80 50.40 63.70 49.80 percent [+]
Participation
Rate
Population 1312.24 1298.04 1312.24 359.00 Million [+]

Retirement 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 [+]

Age Men
 Living Wage 19400.00 19200.00 19400.00 19200.00 INR/Month [+]
Family
Minimum 178.00 178.00 178.00 35.00 INR/Day [+]
Wages
Wages High 43200.00 46200.00 47300.00 43200.00 INR/Month [+]
Skilled
Wages Low 10900.00 11300.00 13500.00 10900.00 INR/Month [+]
Skilled
Youth 23.70 23.10 23.70 22.90 percent [+]
Unemployment
Rate
Employment 46.80 47.80 50.80 46.80 percent [+]
Rate
Living Wage 10300.00 10100.00 10300.00 10100.00 INR/Month [+]
Individual
Retirement 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 [+]
Age Women

This shows that unemployment was certain less before compared to COVID-19 lockdown
period, the analysis shows that the extended rate of unemployment rate showed a mile increase
in the starting initial stage and took to peak stage where extending of the lockdown to extend as
the unemployment rate to increase , so the wage earners are all being affect by the COVID 19
who are majority from other states who came put to survive have better of the people where life
was question who couldn’t leave go to their home town to their hometown so people was
unable to fulfill the basic needs in India.

PROFILE OF THE RESPONDENTS

AGE OF THE RESPONDENTS
The Above pie chart it shows that 32.40% of the Respondents are belonging to Above 20 years
old. 50.70% of the respondents are belonging to age group above 21-30 years, 9.90% of the
respondent are belonging to 31-40 years. 5.60% of the respondents are belonging 41-50. 1.40%
of the respondents are belong to Above 50. Therefore, Majority of the respondents are belong to
the age group of 21-30years.

From the above pie chart out of total respondents 52.1%Respondents are male. 47.9% of the
Particular No. of Respondent Percentage
MALE 34 47.90%
FEMALE 37 52.1%
TOTAL 71 100%
respondents are female therefore. Majority of the Respondents are female.

TABLE NO 4.1: TABLE SHOWING ACCORDING TO PEOPLE BASED PERSONAL

FACTOR FOR YOUR UNEMPLOYMENT
Particulars No. of Respondents Percentage
lack of awareness on various scheme 14 19.70%
lack of education or professional skills 10 14.10%
Unwillingness to do manual / low job 5 7%
COVID Lockdown 17 23.90%
unsatisfied salary 13 18.30%
Dependence on only government jobs 5 7%
others 7 9.90%
Total 71 100%
(Sources: Primary Data)

It is interpreted that out of the Total respondents 19.70% of the respondents have answered as
lack of awareness. 14.10% of the Respondents have answered as lack od education. 7% of the
Respondents have answered unwilling to do job. 23.90% of the respondents have answered
COVID 19 lockdown. 18.30% of the respondents have answered unsatisfied salary. 7% of the
respondents have answered dependence on government jobs. 9.90% of the respondents have
answered others, therefore majority people think due to COVID 19 Lockdown unemployment
was affected.
Page 34
TABLE NO 4.2: TABLE SHOWING MAIN SOURCE OF INCOME OF FAMILY

Particulars No of respondents Percentage

 Agriculture 12 16.90%
Rent 7 9.90%
salary 38 53.50%
others 14 19.70%
Total 71 100%

It is interpreted that out of the Total respondents 16.90% of the Respondents have answered as
Agriculture. 9.90% of the Respondents have answered as Rent. 53.50% of the Respondents
have answered for Salary. And 19.70% have answered as others sourced of Income. Therefore,
Majority of respondents have Answered that Salary is the main sources of Income family.

Table No: Opinion regarding impact of lockdown on employment

Particular No. of Respondents Percentage

Yes 51 71.80%
No 7 9.90%
Maybe 13 18.30%
Total 71 100%
(Sources: Primary Data)

It is interpreted that out of the Total Respondents 71.8% of the Respondents have answered
‘Yes’, 9.90% of the Respondents have answered ‘No’. 18.30% of the Respondents have
answered ‘Maybe’, therefore, Majority of have said that there is unemployment rate is high due
lockdown covid-19 compared to normal days.

TABLE NO Table Showing Major Reasons For Losing Jobs During Lockdown

Particulars No. of Respondents Percentage

No proper skills 22 31%
Inappropriate education system 12 16.90%
No updating of technology 19 26.80%
 others 18 25.40%
Total 71 100%
(Sources: Primary Data)

It is interpreted that out of the Total Respondents. 31% of the Respondents have answered ‘No
Proper skills’. 16.90% of the Respondents have answered ‘Inappropriate education system’.
26.80% of the Respondents have answered ‘No Updating of technology’. 25.40% of the
Respondents have answered ‘others’. Therefore, Majority of the People have answered that ‘No
Proper skills’, where are lacking more skills so it’s the main reason for Unemployment.

TABLE NO: Duration in seeking a job

Year/month No. of Respondents Percentage

0-3 months 30 42.30%
1-2Years 22 31.00%
4-6Months 12 16.90%
Above 3 years 6 8.50%
6-12Months 1 1.40%
Total 71 100.00%
(Sources: Primary Data)

It is interpreted that out of the Total Respondents. 42.30% of the Respondents have answered
‘0-3’. 31% of the Respondents have answered ‘1-2Years’. 16.90% of the Respondents have
answered ‘4-6 Months’. 8.50% of the Respondents have answered ‘Above 3 Years’. 1.40% of
the Respondents have answered ‘6-12Months’. Therefore, Majority of the Respondents are
searching for work around ‘0-3 months’

TABLE NO 4.15: Benefits of Government schemes

Particular No. of Respondent Percentage

36 50.70%
Yes
35 49.30%
No
71 100%
Total
(Sources: Primary Data)

It is interpreted that out of the Total Respondents. 50.70% of the Respondents have answered
‘Yes’. 49.30% of the Respondents have answered ‘No’. Therefore, Majority of the Respondents
have been benefited by the Government over unemployment in India.

TABLE NO 4.18: Opinion regarding the effectiveness of Government Initiatives.

Particular No. of Respondents Percentage

Very good 6 8.50%
Good 20 28.20%
Average 32 45.10%
Below average 10 14.10%
poor 3 4.20%
Total 71 100%
(Sources: Primary Data)

It is interpreted that out of the Total Respondents. 8.50% of the respondents have answered
‘Very good’. 28.20% of the respondents have answered ‘good’. 45.10% of the Respondent have
answered ‘Average’. 14.10% of the Respondents have answered ‘below average’. 4.20% of the
respondents have answered ‘poor’. Therefore, Majority of the respondents have said Average
performance where done by government in India.

SUGGESTION

1. To increase employment, it is essential to increase production in industries sectors.

Development of small and cottage industries should be encouraged foreign trade be
encouraged and production of industries, minerals and plantation should be accelerated
Greater the demand for labor.
2. Demand for labor is directly related to the productivity of labor. Higher productivity
generates higher profits and therefore, greater demand for leader According,
Productivity (implying efficiency) of labor must improve.
 3. Technique of production should suit the needs and means of the country the needs and
means of the country. It is essential that labor intensive technology is encourage in the
place of the capital-intensive technology. Quick yielding industries be given preference.

4. During the COVID-19 the employees should be given batch vise work and social
distancing is to be done. Precaution should be taken where the people, are not getting
proper safety and the employees must be given the hand sanitizers and liquid for wash
their and clean and compulsory mask and gloves to stop spreading, such kind if
precaution would have helped workers ta safe high gene.

5. There is a need of huge investment in human capital to enable the manpower for raising
productivity, real earnings and facilitating the movement from casual to regular
employment and also from the low paid to high paid jobs.

6. Highly capital intensive technology is not suitable to India. In a developing country like
ours, industry alone cannot be the main source of employment. Therefore, efforts should
be made to choose between the capital investment and human skills consistence. We
should not wholly depend on imported technology.

7. Development of rural infrastructure, another labor intensive activity, may accelerate the
process of development.

8. India’s trade with the world is the key contributor in propelling business and creating
jobs. With greater accessibility to global markets business across in India’s diverse
geography can take their products to newer shores, in turn supporting the government’s
make in India and Job creation vision.

CONCLUSION -100 words

Despite this gloomy outlook, we also believe that the COVID-19 crisis can bring about some
changes that have the potential to reduce employability in the labor market in the Long term.
We start by noting that today, a large part of labor are not able go to their due to this pandemic,
where they have reached the hometown to save them self from COVID-19. The COVID-19
crisis is having a substantial impact on all aspects of our lives. The immediate focus and
ongoing priority is inevitably, and correctly, on public health, and is likely to remain that way
for the coming weeks and months. Where the analysis made by certain survey authorities over
the employability done by the them. However, there is a high degree of interest in the many
other impacts of COVID-19, including the many economic and labor market impacts. In the
case of the labor market many millions of workers across a large number of countries have been
directly impacted by lockdowns. Some are able to continue their work through teleworking or
remote working arrangements. Many others have seen a reduction or complete loss of their
livelihood. Others still, for example workers in health or public security, will experience a
different type of change, namely a huge increase in working burden in the face of the crisis.
(Ilostat.ilo.org May 11, 2020)

LIMITATIONS AND SCOPE FOR FUTURE STUDY

 There might be more attribute, which could influence the unemployment in

manufacturing sector due to COVID-19 lockdown.
 Sample size is comparatively small for a study of vast relevance

BIBLIOGRAPHY
JOURNALS

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Page 57
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