Budapest University of Technology and Economics

Faculty of Transportation Engineering and Vehicle Engineering

Department of Transport Technology and Economics

Efficient application of road pricing schemes in the

era of autonomous and shared autonomous vehicles

Ph.D. Thesis Booklet

Submitted by:
Mohamad Shatanawi

Supervisor:
Dr. Mészáros Ferenc

Budapest,
2022
 Abstract
Rapid worldwide research and development related to autonomous and shared
autonomous vehicles (AVs and SAVs) and their expected presence on roads capture the
attention of the public, decision-makers, industry, and academics. AVs and SAVs are expected
to dominate automotive markets in the future due to their distinctive benefits: increased road
safety, better utilization of travel time, improved energy consumption, enhanced traffic
throughput, and expected environmental benefits are examples of some of the positive
implications of these vehicles. However, AVs and SAVs will most likely increase the traveled
miles and number of trips on roads because of their greater accessibility, which will most likely
aggravate congestion. Therefore, there is a foreseen need for traffic regulation policies like road
pricing (RP) to alleviate congestion-related problems in the era of AVs and SAVs.
On the one hand, AVs and SAVs possess advanced technology that allows for the
application of advanced RP schemes that is anticipated to be implemented in the presence of
driverless vehicles. On the other hand, RP has been proven effective in reducing traffic-related
problems, for example, pollution in Milan and congestion in Stockholm. Despite this, the public
acceptance of such a policy is considered low, which is a major reason for the scheme's failure.
Therefore, this dissertation investigates the possible approaches to applying RP successfully
and efficiently in the era of AVs and SAVs.
For a successful implementation of RP, the key requirement is public acceptability,
which I investigated through a two-step approach: (1) I distributed a survey based on well-
known methodologies in five capitals to define the factors that affect RP acceptability, (2) I
developed the previous methodologies and disseminated a survey in four countries to
investigate the factors that may influence RP acceptability in the era of driverless vehicles and
driverless vehicle adoption in the presence of RP. I utilized different econometric models in
analyzing the collected data to provide insight into the public perception of RP, AVs, and SAVs.
For instance, a factor analysis was applied to minimize the large set of items into a lower
number of factors. A multinomial logit model was generated to obtain the utility function
parameters of conventional cars, AVs, and SAVs. In addition, multiple linear regression was
applied to investigate RP acceptability as a function of all examined factors.
The results show that, in line with previous research, people who enjoy driving are less
likely to choose AVs and SAVs, whereas environmentally oriented users are more likely to opt
for AVs and SAVs. On the other hand, my research confirms the importance of other factors,
such as the positive impact of the willingness to share personal trips with other passengers on
RP acceptability and AV and SAV choice. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the
interdependency between the factors influencing RP acceptability and AV and SAV choice. To
the best of my knowledge, this study is the first to RP acceptability and AV and SAV adoption
while also examining the impacts of various factors on both. Moreover, the results indicate that
the identity of each case study and its general policy implications determine which factors
significantly affect the public acceptability of the RP scheme.
 For an efficient application of RP, I utilized dynamic traffic assignment using a transport
network model for Budapest within the traffic macroscopic simulation software "Visum"
through a two-step approach to investigate: (1) the impact of the emergence of AVs and SAVs
on the Budapest network and consumer surplus in alternative future scenarios (2) the impact of
three RP strategies (static and dynamic) on network performance and social welfare in the same
alternative future scenarios.
Three future scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050 are presented and characterized by
different penetration rates of AVs and SAVs to reflect the uncertainty in the market share of
future cars. Moreover, the travel demand of the developed scenarios was obtained from The
Centre for Budapest Transport projections for the respective years, where the total predicted
private transport demand was 2.23, and 2.31 million trips per day for the years 2030, and 2050,
respectively. In the "Mix-Traffic" scenario for 2030, conventional cars, AVs, and SAVs operate
together in the network. The other two scenarios comprise only AVs and SAVs and are assumed
for the year 2050, where the "AV-Focused" scenario represents high dependency on privately
owned AV, and the "SAV-Focused" scenario reflects a high usage of SAV fleets. I also
compared the implications of three distinct RP strategies in Budapest's proposed future traffic
scenarios. The pricing schemes consisted of a static-fixed toll (bridge toll scheme), a static-
variable toll (distance-based scheme), and a dynamic RP (link-based scheme).
The results regarding the impact of the deployment of AV and SAV on Budapest's
network reveal that: from a traffic perspective, the emergence of AVs and SAVs would
improve the overall network performance; furthermore, better performance was observed with
increasing the share distribution of SAVs, where the lowest queues length, minimum delays,
maximum velocity, and lowest vehicle kilometers traveled took place in the SAV-Focused
scenario, followed by AV-Focused and Mix-Traffic scenarios, respectively. Similarly, the
consumer surplus increased in all future scenarios, where the highest increment occurred in
the AV-Focused scenario. Consequently, the advent of AVs and SAVs will improve traffic
performance and increase consumer surplus, benefiting road users and authorities. The results
regarding the implications of the applied pricing strategies demonstrate that the impact of RP
schemes differs according to the change in penetration rates of AVs and SAVs. Nevertheless,
considering the gained social benefits, implementing a dynamic pricing strategy (Link-based
Scheme) in the case of AV-Focused and SAV-Focused scenarios performed better than static
ones. On the contrary, the static pricing strategies (i.e., Bridge Toll and Distance-based
Schemes) outperformed the dynamic ones in the Mix-Traffic scenario. Furthermore, the link-
based scheme generated the maximum revenues (i.e., gathered tolls).
 1. Introduction
The complexity and global nature of the mobility challenges, like the problem of
congestion, is a global issue and significant challenge for many cities, especially when
considering the environmental aspects and the need for implementing sustainable transport
policies. Some of the reasons for congestion are the massive increment in the number of private
cars during the last few decades (i.e., growing motorization rates), the inadequate infrastructure,
the travel behavior of road users (i.e., using personal vehicles in traveling more than public
transport and soft mobility), and the lack of comprehensive strategic plans to manage
transportation. As a consequence of traffic congestion, many problems start to occur, such as
pollution (visual pollution, air pollution, underground water pollution, and noise). Likewise,
the extra travel times during congestion lead to more fuel consumption, bad public mood, and
more losses in terms of money. Similarly, congestion leads to higher accident rates.
The advancement in automotive technology may contribute to solving some mobility-
related issues, such as introducing self-driving vehicles as a mobility alternative to the present
transportation means, which is expected in the future. The vehicle industry, policymakers, and
academia pay attention to rapid global research and innovation connected to autonomous
vehicles (AVs), shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs), and their projected appearance on
roadways. Due to their benefits, AVs and SAVs are projected to dominate automobile markets
[1]–[4]. Additionally, several laws relating to the deployment of AV and SAV have been
effectively implemented in many nations and areas [5], [6].
The benefits of automated vehicles are predicted to be significant, notably in terms of
traffic safety, energy usage, and accessibility [7]. In terms of traffic, AVs and SAVs will assist
in relieving congestion by lowering the number of accidents due to human mistakes, shortening
headways, and optimizing the use of intersections [8], [9]. Furthermore, as these vehicles do
not require human interaction to finish the journey, users of AVs and SAVs may better use their
travel time by doing other activities like studying or relaxing instead of monitoring the road [9],
[10]. Nevertheless, AVs and SAVs are anticipated to increase the number of trips and mileage
driven by providing more access to motorized transport to new groups of users, e.g., those who
were previously unable to travel by car owing to various considerations like age or disability,
resulting in increased traffic [7], [11]. The improved accessibility would change the travel
demand globally, where people worldwide will have more access to motorized transport due to
the advent of AVs and SAVs. As a result, the impacts of AVs and SAVs on road congestion
are yet unclear, and they may exacerbate existing traffic issues [3], [12]. Consequently, there is
a foreseen need for regulatory traffic policies to alleviate congestion-related problems in the era
of AVs and SAVs [13].
Road pricing (RP) is one of the most effective and efficient travel demand management
tools for mitigating traffic-related problems such as congestion [14]–[16]. Moreover, it has been
adopted in several cities around the world, such as London (UK), Milan (Italy), and Singapore,
and is spreading to others [17]. For instance, Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) was
incorporated into the area-based pricing regime in London to promote sustainable travel and
comply with air quality standards of the Europeans Union [18], which helps improve air quality

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and increase bicycle demand [19], [20]. Furthermore, the application of more economically
efficient and behaviorally effective RP strategies is possible in the era of AVs and SAVs due
to increased communication and location capabilities and rapid information exchange [9], [21].
Therefore, the use of RP strategies could be one of the optimal options for counteracting the
potential increase in congestion due to the emergence of AVs and SAVs, and the RP policies
shall be revised and modified to suit AVs and SAVs.
However, there is an obstacle that faces the implementation of such a scheme; that is
RP acceptability [22]–[24]. The motorists are not used to paying for using the road; moreover,
they consider it a preserved right to use the road freely [25]–[27]. For instance, the RP scheme
failed in Netherland, Copenhagen, and Edinburg due to the lack of acceptability [28]. One
important aspect of SAVs is that they are expected to emerge as a demand-responsive service
[29]. Moreover, shared mobility services are predicted to prosper in the future and provide the
first appearance of self-driving cars in the frame of SAVs because of their rising popularity and
cheaper travel costs compared to privately owned vehicles [30]. This is especially true with
electric SAVs, which are expected to be widely adopted and provide a more viable society [30]–
[33]. Thanks to the evolution of information and communication technology and mobile
solutions, ride-sharing services have become more popular in several cities [34]. Such services
provide users with cheaper and more versatile commuting options. Moreover, they are
associated with lower vehicle ownership and greenhouse gas emissions [35]–[37].

2. Motivation and Research Novelty

A revision of the current state of the literature concerning AVs and SAVs showed that
technological advancement in the field of motorized transport accelerates swiftly, especially in
the advancement of self-driving vehicles [3], [38]–[40]. Accordingly, it can be stated that given
the massive automakers' continued investments in AV technology, self-driving vehicles are
anticipated to have a high share of the future automotive market and would probably be
important enough to require the complete focus of the policymakers and transport specialists
[1], [2], [4], [41]. Despite the expected benefits of AVs and SAVs on traffic performance,
accessibility, environment, accident rates, and fuel efficiency [7], [9], [10], [42]–[45], it is
expected that the travel demand will increase, especially in Europe, due to the higher
accessibility for motorized transport modes leading for more and longer vehicle trips [7], [11],
[12], [46], [47]. The increased travel demand may exacerbate traffic congestion, necessitating
the use of techniques for managing travel demand to reduce the adverse effects of self-driving
vehicles [41], [48]. There is a valid opportunity to control the induced demand through RP
schemes, where toll values can be adjusted to dissipate the induced demand. Thanks to the
modern technology in AVs and SAVs, a more dynamic RP scheme can be implemented in the
era of AVs and SAVs, as can be seen in several research articles that discussed the possible
approaches to designing different road pricing strategies in the world of self-driving vehicles
using different transport modeling techniques [21], [32], [47], [49]–[54].
Therefore, RP is anticipated to be an effective tool in mitigating traffic-related issues in
the era of AVs and SAVs. This dissertation investigates the possible approaches to applying
RP successfully and efficiently in the presence of AVs and SAVs. For a successful

5
implementation of RP, the key requirement is the public acceptability of RP. Although there is
a vast amount of literature on RP acceptability and self-driving car adoption, there is no study
yet that has investigated RP acceptability in connection with the adoption of AVs and SAVs
and the factors influencing them. To the best of my knowledge, this dissertation is the first to
cover this research gap by introducing studies on RP acceptability and AV and SAV adoption
while also examining the impacts of various factors on both. The development and realization
of RP policy and driverless vehicles will contribute to the process of sustainable development,
especially in terms of economic, environmental, and socially sustainable development. The
successful implementation of RP and the advent of AVs and SAVs would help overcome
challenges such as air pollution and climate change by reducing the amount of traffic and
promoting sustainable development.
On the other side, for an efficient application of RP in the era of AVs and SAVs, I
utilized a simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment (SBA) using a transport network model
for Budapest (EFM Model) within the traffic macroscopic simulation software "Visum" to
integrate AVs and SAVs to Budapest network and apply different RP strategies (static and
dynamic) in alternative future traffic scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050. I analyzed the
implications of including self-driving cars and implementing RP strategies on network
performance, consumer surplus (CS), and social welfare. This dissertation presents a
methodological framework for deploying AVs, SAVs, and various RP strategies using SBA,
which will contribute significantly to modeling projects of related research and can help
creating the dynamic traffic modeling of such elements using software like Visum. Several
essential characteristics that are anticipated to be crucial in the context of AVs and SAVs were
considered, such as vehicle reaction time and headway, vehicle-to-infrastructure
communications, time constraints for the SAV to pick up a request, in-route check, and
acceptance of other trip requests based on determining factors, and vehicle power level.
Moreover, the introduction of an on-demand travel service for SAV can have a hand in crafting
an advanced shared mobility system, and the use of real-time simulation can give the
opportunity for the application of advanced RP strategies, which are expected to be introduced
and used in the presence of AVs and SAVs due to the advanced technology that driverless
vehicles possess.
Furthermore, this dissertation aims to highlight the factors that will affect RP
acceptability and self-driving vehicle adoption, as well as the implications of introducing AVs
and SAVs and applying different RP strategies in alternative future traffic scenarios on traffic
performance and economic changes. The results of this dissertation can provide meaningful
insights to stakeholders and policymakers for anticipating and planning policy controls related
to the expected impacts of RP, AVs, and SAVs in the transportation regime.

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 3. Research Questions
As mentioned in the above sections, RP presents a solution for the expected change in
travel demand due to the advent of AVs and SAVs. However, on the one hand, it is necessary
to adjust the use of RP strategies by utilizing the advanced technologies in self-driving vehicles
to ensure an efficient application that guarantees to tackle the expected upsurge in travel
demand. On the other hand, the obstacle of RP's low acceptability level needs to be investigated
to ensure the successful implementation of RP schemes.
Consequently, the scope of this dissertation covers the possible methods and policy
implications that help raise the RP acceptability and self-driving vehicle adoption through
questionnaires distributed worldwide, as the problem is global. Then, it focuses on the
implications of the emergence of AVs and SAVs and the impacts of applying different RP
strategies in the era of self-driving vehicles by utilizing a macroscopic traffic simulation tool to
shed light on the possible approaches for efficient application of RP in the time of AVs and
SAVs. The dissertation answers the following research questions.

Q1: Do the RP schemes consider an acceptable global measure to manage the demand
for self-driving vehicles?

Q2: Which factors significantly affect RP acceptability and self-driving vehicle

adoption for developing a successful RP scheme in the era of AVs and SAVs?

Q3: What effects do AV and SAV deployments have on a societal level, personal level,
and traffic-sensitive areas?

Q4: How does varying the share distribution of AVs and SAVs affect traffic
performance and economic aspects?

Q5: To what extent are the RP schemes considered efficient global travel demand
management tools in managing the demand for AVs and SAVs?

Q6: What are the impacts of applying different RP strategies in the time of self-driving
vehicles on traffic performance, society level, and personal level?

Q7: What policy implications can be derived from applying the RP strategies in the era
of self-driving vehicles to improve network performance and increase social welfare?

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4. Used Scientific Methods
I utilized a variety of scientific methodologies in conducting my research. A brief
summary of the scientific methods used in my research is presented in this section.

I utilized a dynamic traffic assignment (i.e., SBA) using a transport network model
within the traffic macroscopic simulation software "Visum" to integrate AVs, SAVs, and the
pricing strategies to the network and conduct the modeling work. The process includes
integrating new transport systems (i.e., AVs and SAVs) into the network, extending the SBA
assignment method with reacting to AVs special features, modifying the network to be S/AV-
ready to distinguish automated vehicles from conventional ones by identifying the
characteristics of each transport system separately across the network, adjusting the input
parameters required for the car following model to model AVs and SAVs, defining the changes
to private transport demand matrices according to the future traffic scenarios, designing a ride-
sharing system for SAV within the model using the dynamic demand-responsive ride-sharing
system (DRS) and vehicle routing problem (VRP) to serve the maximum number of trip
requests utilizing the available fleet of vehicles, adjusting the SBA parameters to get a realistic
results, and finally, defining the applied pricing strategies within the model.

As the SAV ride-sharing model is a real-time sharing system, the dispatcher method is
used in tour planning to solve the vehicle assignment problem. As I applied the dynamic traffic
assignment (i.e., SBA) method instead of static equilibrium assignment (used in the original
model), I performed an additional calibration and applied all necessary changes to ensure the
model's suitability for the use of dynamic traffic assignment. I used GEH statistics based
calibration in the modified model because it has a property that the relative deviations decrease
with increasing observed values, and it places more emphasis on larger flows than on smaller
flows, which represents the situation of the case study's transport network [55], [56].
Additionally, GEH statistic is adopted by different road administrations, such as FHWA in USA,
BKK in Hungary, and ARRB in Australia [57], [58]. Figure 1 shows the sections used for the
calibration with their corresponding GEH values. I conducted different statistical analysis
approaches to analyze the obtained data, including descriptive statics and non-parametric tests.
As the data did not fit a normal distribution, I applied Friedman with Bonferroni correction tests
for all possible combinations to identify significant differences between different scenarios and
Wilcoxon signed-rank tests for pairwise comparison of all combinations which had different
distributions according to the Friedman test. Furthermore, I utilized cost-benefit techniques for
the economic appraisal by defining the changes in social welfare and consumer surplus.

8
 Figure 1. Graphical representation of the sections used for the calibration and their corresponding GEH values

I formulated questionnaires by extending well-known methodologies to bridge a

research gap by simultaneously investigating the acceptability of RP, AVs, and SAVs. I used
different econometric models to analyze the received data from the distributed questionnaires
to provide insight into the public perception of RP, AVs, and SAVs. For instance, a
multicollinearity problem exists between the measured variables in questionnaire responses
with a large dimension [59]. Thus, working with lower dimensionality without sacrificing much
information is desirable, meaning that dimensionality reduction is critical [60]. One of the most
commonly utilized techniques for this is factor analysis. One or more indicators are used to
determine the number of factors. It is not always easy to determine the right number of factors
to maintain a decent explanation of the data. As a result, I used principal component analysis
(PCA) with varimax rotation [61] to determine the factors' numbers.
I used multiple linear regression (MLR) to investigate the influence of independent
variables on the dependent variable. Similarly, with many other statistical analyses, I checked
a set of assumptions prior to the analysis (e.g., the linear relationship between the dependent
and independent variables, normally distributed error terms, and no multicollinearity between
the independent variables). Following the verification of the assumption, then applying a
multiple regression is valid. The general formula of the linear regression model is expressed as
shown in Equation 1.

𝑦𝑖 = 𝛽1 𝑥𝑖1 + 𝛽2 𝑥𝑖2 + ⋯ + 𝛽𝐾 𝑥𝑖𝐾 + 𝜀, 𝑖 = 1, … , 𝑛 (1)

where 𝑦𝑖 is the dependent variable; 𝑥𝑖 : i = 1, ….., 𝑛 is the number of the independent

variables considered in the model; 𝛽𝑖 : i = 0, . . . , 𝑛 is the regression coefficient, and 𝜀 is the
error term.

9
 Multinomial Logit Model (MNL) is used when there are two or more discrete-
categorical dependent variables. In my research, the respondents were asked to make a trade-
off among three unordered and discrete variables (i.e., AVs, SAVs, and CC). Therefore, MNL
is estimated. I used linear-additive utility specifications to create the utility structure for all the
estimated models. The general form of the utility function is presented in Equation 2. The utility
is composed of four parts: the first part, 𝛼𝑗 is the alternative specific constant (ASC) which
represents the mean of all unobserved resources of the utility. The second part captures the
utility derived from latent variables; 𝛽𝑗𝑘 is a vector of parameters which is pertaining to the
attitudinal factors k. Xjk is a vector of latent variables derived from factor analysis, where k=
1,2,….., k number of variables. The third part comprises the utility formed by the
sociodemographic variables of the individuals. 𝛽𝑗𝑖 is the estimated parameter for each
sociodemographic variable and 𝑋𝑗𝑖 is a set of sociodemographic variables. The fourth part 𝜀𝑗
represents the unobserved component which is associated with individuals' idiosyncrasies as
well as the error by the analyst; it is assumed to be independently and identically distributed
(IID). The probability of the MNL model is shown in Equation 3. Further statistical techniques
were used in analyzing the obtained data, such as descriptive statistics and bivariate analysis.
𝑈𝑗 = 𝛼𝑗 + ∑𝑘𝑘=1 𝛽𝑗𝑘 𝑋𝑗𝑘 + ∑𝑖𝑖=1 𝛽𝑗𝑖 𝑋𝑗𝑖 + 𝜀𝑗 (2)
𝑈
𝑒 𝑗
𝑃𝑗 = ∑𝐼 𝑈𝑖 (3)
𝑖=1 𝑒

5. Dissertation Outline
The dissertation consists of six chapters.
Chapter one introduces the research topic, explains the research motivation and novelty,
defines the research questions, outlines the applied scientific methods, and displays the research
sequence.
Chapter two utilizes well-known methodologies in defining the RP acceptability and
factors affecting it, where I distributed a questionnaire globally and analyzed the obtained data
to answer question #1 mentioned in Section 3.
Chapter three further develops the methodologies used in chapter two and introduces a
new model to study the interrelationship between RP acceptability and self-driving vehicle
adoption, where I distributed a questionnaire in four countries and analyzed the obtained data
to answer question #2 mentioned in Section 3.
Chapter four integrates AVs and SAVs into a validated transport network model within
the traffic macroscopic simulation software "Visum" in alternative future traffic scenarios to
investigate their impact on a societal level, personal level, and traffic-sensitive areas (questions
#3 and #4 mentioned in Section 3). I introduced three future traffic scenarios that reflect
different possibilities of the market share of AVs and SAVs for the years 2030 and 2050.
Chapter five applies static and dynamic RP strategies to the developed future traffic
scenarios using dynamic traffic assignment to answer questions #5 to #7 in Section 3.
Chapter six, finally, sheds light on the new scientific findings, the practical use of the
theses and outlook, and the potential scope for future research work on this subject.

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6. The Summary of Scientific Results and Future Research
Self-driving vehicles are associated with many advantages to the transportation market
and road users, such as better utilization of travel time. However, they may also increase the
number of trips and traveled miles on roads due to improved accessibility, thus aggravating
congestion. RP is a possible solution for mitigating traffic-related problems like congestion,
especially considering that the advent of AVs and SAVs introduces the opportunity to
implement more advanced and dynamic RP strategies. However, the public usually resents RP,
which may hinder its introduction. Thus, this dissertation investigates the possible approaches
to applying RP successfully and efficiently in light of the emergence of AVs & SAVs. The
following paragraphs shed light on the new scientific findings, the practical use of the theses
and outlook, and the potential scope for future research work on this subject.
This dissertation bridges some research gaps and contributes to the literature on
transport economics by answering several research questions concerning the application of RP
in the era of AVs and SAVs. Moreover, the dissertation research topics are wide and
comprehensive by covering both aspects of implementing RP: the theoretical one (i.e.,
acceptability of RP) and the practical one (i.e., modeling of different RP strategies). For
example, these are some of the questions which were answered within this dissertation:
• How will the public perceive the RP with the emergence of AVs and SAVs?
• How will the adoption of AVs and SAVs be affected in the presence of RP?
• What are the implications of AVs and SAVs advent?
• Which is the optimal RP strategy in the era of AVs and SAVs?
Furthermore, the dissertation deals with the impact of AVs and SAVs on a transport
network model and the application of different potential static and dynamic RP strategies.
Deploying the SBA in the simulation process will contribute significantly to modeling projects
and related research and can have a hand in crafting traditional and advanced RP policies using
modeling software like Visum. Some of the strengths of the work are that the research provides
a methodological framework for deploying AVs and SAVs using SBA, including, but not
limited to, several essential characteristics that are expected to play important roles in
automated systems, such as vehicle reaction time and headway, vehicle-to-infrastructure
communications, time constraints for the shared vehicle to pick-up a request, in-route check
and acceptance of other trip requests based on determined factors, and vehicle power level. The
use of real-time simulation allowed for the application of advanced RP schemes that are
anticipated to be implemented in the presence of driverless vehicles, thanks to the advanced
technology which such vehicles possess. Moreover, the study illustrated the methods used for
model calibration and demonstrated the use of the random seed, which can be useful in other
applications. Following is a short summary of the main scientific findings, the practical use of
the theses, and the scope of future research works for enhancing RP acceptability and applying
RP strategies in the era of AVs and SAVs.

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 I followed a two-step approach for answering the RP acceptability-related research
questions by distributing a survey in five capitals, Thesis one, then developing the utilized
survey and disseminating it in four countries, Thesis two. I distributed ten surveys in eight
different countries to investigate the factors that might influence the acceptability of RP and the
adoption of AVs and SAVs. I succeeded in collecting 2136 completed and valid responses from
Hungary, Jordan, Azerbaijan, Syria, Mongolia, Ukraine, Tunis, and Brazil. The selected
countries in theses one and two, on the one hand, have different economic conditions; as
Nordhoff et al. [62] showed that the economic level of a given country plays a role in
influencing the adoption of automated vehicles through GDP per capita. The countries selected
in this research illustrate its breadth by analyzing the research impacts in countries that
represent different economic conditions; for example, Jordan and Brazil have developing
economies, while Ukraine has an economy in transition, and Hungary has a developed economy
[63]. On the other hand, as the problem of increasing demand for motorized transport modes
due to the advent of AVs and SAVs is expected to be a global problem, I studied the RP
acceptability issue in a global framework. The collected data from all countries were analyzed
using various econometric models (e.g., factor analysis, MNL, MLR, and descriptive statistics).

Thesis I
I found a significant positive relationship between the acceptability of road pricing and
the factors "scheme's effectiveness", "scheme's awareness", and "individual
responsibility for traffic-related problems". Moreover, the acceptability of road
pricing does not significantly differ by income level. Using surveys in five capitals, I
determined the factors and socio-demographic characteristics affecting road pricing
acceptability using dimension reduction techniques and regression analysis.

In thesis one, I measured the current level of RP acceptability, identified the factors that
affect RP acceptability, and provided a broader scope for testing the underlying model in
different societies. The results highlight the factors that profoundly affect RP acceptability.
People with prior awareness about RP are more likely to accept it, while a lack of knowledge
negatively affects RP acceptability. People who consider themselves responsible for solving
traffic problems are more willing to accept RP. The effectiveness of RP has a statistically
significant effect on its acceptability, where people are willing to accept RP if they see it as an
effective approach to reducing the adverse impact of congestion. People who use their cars
more often are less likely to accept RP. At the same time, people who support soft mobility
agree on applying RP. Females are more likely to accept RP than males. The acceptability of
RP does not significantly differ by income level.

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 Thesis II
I found that people who enjoy driving and have concerns regarding automated
vehicles' safety and security are less likely to choose self-driving vehicles. In contrast,
people who care about the environment while traveling are more willing to accept road
pricing and prefer self-driving vehicles, and those with more knowledge of and interest
in new technologies are more likely to opt for self-driving vehicles over conventional
ones. There is a positive impact of the willingness to share personal trips with other
passengers on road pricing acceptability and self-driving vehicle choice, with more
tendency to use shared autonomous vehicles. Family and friends can positively
influence related people to accept road pricing schemes. Furthermore, I demonstrated
the interdependency between road pricing acceptability and self-driving vehicle
adoption and the importance of their simultaneous study. Using surveys in four
countries, I determined the factors and socio-demographic characteristics affecting
road pricing acceptability and self-driving vehicles' adoption utilizing dimension
reduction techniques and regression analysis.

In thesis two, I developed the previous methodology and disseminated a survey in four
countries to investigate the studied factors' influence on RP acceptability and AVs and SAVs
adoption. I bridged a research gap by simultaneously analyzing the impact of various factors
on RP acceptability and self-driving vehicle adoption and highlighted their interdependence
and the relevance of studying them at the same time. The conceptual and analytical framework
of this thesis is shown in Figure 2.
The results differ in different national contexts, such that there are some fluctuations in
the parameters that significantly affect the acceptability of RP and self-driving cars in each
country. This study showed a significant and direct effect of the AV-related variables on RP
acceptability. People who consider their environmental impact while planning their trips (e.g.,
using less polluting vehicles) are more likely to accept the implementation of RP. Similarly, the
respondents from the four countries can be positively influenced by their family and friends to
accept the application of RP.
People with more knowledge of and interest in new technologies are more likely to
prefer AVs and SAVs relative to CCs. Similarly, those with high sensitivity towards
environmental issues have a high propensity to use AVs and SAVs, and people willing to share
their trips with others are more likely to use SAVs. People who enjoy driving or have concerns
regarding automated vehicles' safety and security are less likely to choose AVs and SAVs. In
both Jordan and Ukraine, people sensitive to the trip cost (i.e., those who regard trip cost as the
most important factor in planning a trip) are more likely to choose AVs and SAVs. Moreover,
the estimated parameter associated with SAVs is greater than AVs, reflecting a higher tendency
to use SAVs. Gender was not statistically significant in any of the models except for the
Jordanian models, where males were significantly associated with a negative attitude toward
adopting AVs and SAVs.

13
 Conceptual Framework

Analytical Framework
Figure 2. Conceptual and Analytical Framework

Consequently, to improve and enhance the public acceptability of the RP scheme,

authorities should increase awareness about RP and clearly explain the goal of implementing
such a scheme and its positive effect on daily life. Awareness of new technologies and RP is an
important factor in their adoption and implementation. Therefore, educational campaigns
through different platforms and various methods should be held to inform people about the
expected benefits of driverless vehicles and RP, which will help raise their acceptability. The
public wants their governments to use RP revenues in areas where the residents can feel their
impact, such as enhancing PuT systems. Such policies are critical as the public trust was found
to be very low in government entities regarding the use of revenues. Therefore, it is advised to
clearly explain the methods of utilizing the revenues from RP to satisfy the public's
requirements.

14
 These research articles can be further developed and used by other researchers in future
studies. For example, researchers may include other variables (e.g., self-driving car legal
liability and perceived comfort) and conduct studies utilizing a prototype of AVs and SAVs
alongside RP to learn more about the impact of the presence of RP and the inclusion of AV and
SAV on influencing the potential user's acceptance to the concept of RP, AVs, and SAVs.
Additionally, future studies may employ a stated preference experiment to examine the impact
of RP features like toll value on the adoption of AVs and SAVs, which can shed more light on
how various RP tolls may influence vehicle adoption.

For thesis three and four, I utilized a dynamic traffic assignment using the traffic
macroscopic simulation software "Visum" to investigate the impact of the emergence of AVs
and SAVs on the traffic performance and consumer surplus, and the impact of three RP
strategies (static and dynamic) on network performance and social welfare in alternative future
scenarios. Three future scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050 are presented and characterized
by different penetration rates of AVs and SAVs to reflect the uncertainty in the market share of
these future cars. Moreover, the travel demand of the developed scenarios was obtained from
BKK projections for the respective years, where the total predicted private transport demand
was 2.23 and 2.31 million trips per day in Budapest for the years 2030 and 2050, respectively. It
is worth noting that the used Budapest "EFM Model" comprises over 30,000 links, around
15,000 nodes, and 1,200 zones.

Thesis III
I justified that replacing conventional vehicles with autonomous and shared
autonomous vehicles would improve the overall network performance and increase the
consumer surplus. A higher replacement rate of conventional vehicles by shared
autonomous vehicles will have a more positive impact on traffic status. A higher
replacement rate of conventional vehicles by autonomous vehicles would generate a
higher consumer surplus. By deploying the dynamic traffic assignment for Budapest
network using a validated macroscopic traffic simulation tool (VISUM), I showed the
impact of self-driving vehicles on Budapest network and consumer surplus for the
proposed future traffic scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050.

In thesis three, I utilized SBA using EFM Model within Visum to investigate the impact
of varying the share distribution of AVs and SAVs, in alternative future traffic scenarios, on
consumer surplus and network performance, including average and maximum queue lengths,
delays, volume, density, utilization (scaled density), velocity, and vehicle kilometers traveled.
The 2030 scenario combines CC, AVs, and SAVs, where CC is the dominant private transport
mode (Mix-Traffic Scenario), while the two scenarios for 2050 include AVs and SAVs only
and are characterized by high adoption of AVs (AV-Focused Scenario) or wide usage of SAVs
(SAV-Focused Scenario).

15
 The first step was to deploy AV and SAV behavior into the Budapest network using
SBA. Figure 3 shows the simulation area, which represents the Budapest network and its
surroundings, where the service area of SAVs (highlighted in pink and covering Budapest) is
smaller than the area of AVs, which covers Budapest and its surroundings because the zones
with moderate to high demand density only were considered in the case of SAVs.

Figure 3. Simulation area including the Budapest network and its surroundings

A dynamic demand-responsive ride-sharing system (DRS) was applied to design the

SAV system in the Budapest network. The supply modeling of the DRS for SAVs comprises
infrastructure and the SAV fleet. The supply modeling of the infrastructure involves identifying
the SAV service area in the network (475 km2), the operating network, parking facilities,
charging stations, and the pick-up/drop-off points (Pu/Do). Simultaneously, the supply
modeling of the SAV fleet consists of specifying the SAV fleet size, which was determined
using random seed values, and the SAV fleet characteristics (e.g., the SAV fleet consists of all-
electric vehicles), as illustrated in Figure 4.

16
 Figure 4. The location of charging and parking stations and pick-up/drop-off points within the
SAV service area

I found that the emergence of AVs and SAVs would improve the overall network
performance, and better performance was observed with increasing the share distribution of
SAVs. Similarly, the consumer surplus increased in all future scenarios, especially with
increasing the share distribution of AVs. Two related research papers investigated the impact
of the SAVs emergence on the Budapest network and the impact of AVs emergence on the
Budapest network, considering different penetration rates for each mode separately and
utilizing the forecasted travel demand for the year 2030. The results showed that the
implementation of the SAV system has a positive effect on traffic performance. Based on the
relationships between the modeled SAV demand shares and the network's key performance
parameters in the designed scenarios, the overall network performance showed improvement
along with an increase in the SAV demand share [30]. Similarly, the city of Budapest can
benefit from the advent of AVs to improve traffic performance. The study also illustrated that
using the reaction time factor in SBA for implementing AVs would primarily control (i.e.,
increase) link capacity, which in return would decrease traffic congestion [S11].

17
 Thesis IV
I found that implementing the dynamic pricing strategy (i.e., Link-based Scheme) in
the presence of autonomous and shared autonomous vehicles as the dominant
transport modes shows better outcomes than static pricing strategies. Conversely, the
static pricing strategies (i.e., Bridge Toll and Distance-based Schemes) outperform the
dynamic ones when conventional vehicles have the highest share of private transport
modes. By deploying the simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment for Budapest
network using a validated macroscopic traffic simulation tool (VISUM), I showed the
impact of three road pricing strategies (two static and one dynamic) on network
performance and social welfare in the era of self-driving vehicles for three alternative
future traffic scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050.

In thesis four, I analyzed the implications of applying different RP schemes (static and
dynamic) using the previously developed scenarios (i.e., Mix-Traffic Scenario, AV-Focused
Scenario, and SAV-Focused Scenario). The pricing strategies consisted of a static-fixed toll
(bridge toll scheme), a static-variable toll (distance-based scheme), and a dynamic RP (link-
based scheme), which all were applied to the proposed future traffic scenarios. Figure 5 shows
the links subjected to tolls in each pricing strategy.

Selected links for tolling in the Link-

Budapest's planned toll bridges Distance-based tolling scheme area
based Scheme
Figure 5. Links subjected for tolling in each pricing strategy

I highlighted that the impact of RP schemes differs according to the different penetration
rates of AVs and SAVs. Nevertheless, considering the social benefits gained, implementing a
dynamic pricing strategy (i.e., Link-based Scheme) in the case of AV-Focused and SAV-
Focused scenarios shows better outcomes than other pricing schemes. Conversely, the static
pricing strategies (i.e., Bridge Toll and Distance-based Schemes) outperform dynamic
strategies in the Mix-Traffic scenario.

Consequently, to improve the traffic performance, a higher replacement rate of CCs by

SAVs is recommended, while maximizing the user's benefits can be achieved by a higher
replacement rate of CCs by AVs. The use of dynamic RP strategies is recommended when AVs
and SAVs have a high share of the transport market. In comparison, it is advised to use static
RP strategies in the presence of CC as a dominant private transport mode (i.e., the bridge toll
and distance-based schemes). The impact of the distance-based scheme on traffic differed inside
and outside the charging zone; therefore, it is essential, in the case cordon pricing is adopted,
to carefully investigate the expected impacts of the proposed strategies on the border and
surrounding area of the charging zone. In all the scenarios, the link-based scheme generated the

18
maximum revenues (i.e., gathered tolls) along with being the best pricing strategy in terms of
the change of social welfare for AV-Focused and SAV-Focused scenarios and in terms of
producing a positive change in the case of the Mix-Traffic scenario. Therefore, if the authority's
objective of applying the RP strategy is to generate revenues, then a link-based scheme can be
an optimal solution.

These research results can be further extended by including the effect of AVs, SAVs,
and RP strategies on mode choice and people's mobility behavior. It would be interesting to
distribute a questionnaire (e.g., stated preference experiment) that investigates the willingness
to pay for adopting AVs and SAVs, as well as the acceptable toll value for the public, along
with other parameters which can be inserted into the modeling process. Further studies can be
carried out to apply pricing schemes that reflect the First-best Pricing Principle by matching the
toll value dynamically with the marginal cost. For instance, the users are charged a toll
equivalent to the extra travel time they cause for other travelers.

19
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23
 List of publications (own):
[S1] M. Shatanawi, A. Alatawneh, and F. Mészáros, “Implications of Static and Dynamic
Road Pricing Strategies in the Era of Autonomous and Shared Autonomous Vehicles Using
Simulation-Based Dynamic Traffic Assignment: The Case Of Budapest,”2022, Research in
Transportation Economics, 101231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2022.101231 [IF:2.904].
[S2] M. Shatanawi, F. Abdelkhalek, and F. Mészáros, “Urban Congestion Charging
Acceptability: An International Comparative Study,” Sustainability, vol. 12, no. 12, p. 15, 2020,
https://doi.org/10.3390/su12125044. [IF:3.889].
[S3] M. Shatanawi, M. Hajouj, B. Edries, and F. Mészáros, “The Interrelationship between
Road Pricing Acceptability and Self-Driving Vehicle Adoption: Insights from Four Countries,”
Sustainability 2022, 14, 12798. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141912798. [IF:3.889]
[S4] I. Matalqah, M. Shatanawi, A. Alatawneh, and F. Mészáros, “Impact of Different
Penetration Rates of Shared Autonomous Vehicles on Traffic: Case Study of Budapest,”
Transportation Research Record, p. 03611981221095526, Jun. 2022,
https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981221095526. [IF:2.019]
[S5] M. Shatanawi, and F. Mészáros, “Implications of the Emergence of Autonomous
Vehicles and Shared Autonomous Vehicles: A Budapest Perspective,” Sustainability 2022, 14,
10952. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141710952 [IF:3.889].
[S6] M. Shatanawi, M. Ghadi, and F. Mészáros, “Road Pricing Adaptation to Era of
Autonomous and Shared Autonomous Vehicles: Perspective of Brazil, Jordan, and Azerbaijan,”
Transportation Research Procedia, vol. 55, pp. 291–298, 2021,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2021.06.033.
[S7] M. Shatanawi, S. Boudhrioua, and F. Mészáros, “Comparing Road User Charging
Acceptability in the City of Tunis and Damascus,” MATEC Web Conf., vol. 296, p. 02002,
2019, https://doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201929602002.
[S8] M. Shatanawi, M. S. Csete, and F. Mészáros, “Road User Charging: Adaptation to the
City of Amman” University of Dunaújváros, Hungary, Nov. 2018, p. 10.
[S9] F. Meszaros, M. Shatanawi, and G. A. Ogunkunbi, “Challenges of the Electric Vehicle
Markets in Emerging Economies,” Period. Polytech. Transp. Eng., Feb. 2020,
https://doi.org/10.3311/PPtr.14037.
[S10] S. Boudhrioua and M. Shatanawi, “Implementation of Absolute Priority in a Predictive
Traffic Actuation Schemes,” Period. Polytech. Transp. Eng., Nov. 2019,
https://doi.org/10.3311/PPtr.14191.
[S11] A. Alatawneh, M. Shatanawi, and F. Mészáros, “Analysis of the Emergence of
Autonomous Vehicles Using Simulation-based Dynamic Traffic Assignment – The Case of
Budapest,” Periodica Polytechnica Transportation Engineering. [Under Review]
[S12] M. Shatanawi, U. Battsolmon, and Ferenc Mészáros, "Comparing Road User Charging
Acceptability in the City of Budapest and Ulaanbaatar," May 2019, vol. II, p. 16.

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