Introduction to

UNIT 1 INTRODUCTION TO Inferential

INFERENTIAL STATISTICS* Statistics

Structure
1.0 Objectives
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Concept and Meaning of Inferential Statistics
1.3 Inferential Procedures
1.3.1 Estimation
1.3.2 Hypothesis Testing
1.3.2.1 Types of Hypothesis
1.3.2.2 Level of Significance
1.3.2.3 One-tailed and Two- tailed Tests
1.3.2.4 Errors in Hypothesis Testing
1.3.2.5 Power of a Test
1.4 Procedure for Testing Hypothesis
1.5 Let Us Sum Up
1.6 References
1.7 Key Word
1.8 Answers to Check Your Progress
1.9 Unit End Questions

1.0 OBJECTIVES
After reading this unit, you will be able to:

 discuss the concept and meaning of inferential statistics;

 describe inferential procedures; and
 explain the procedure for testing hypothesis.

1.1 INTRODUCTION
To refresh your memory with regard to what you learned in BPCC104:
Statistical Methods for Psychological Research- I and to set a background for
further discussion and explanation for the present course, that is, BPCC108:
Statistical Methods for Psychological Research- II, let us focus on the
following points.
Statistics can be described as a branch or sub-field of mathematics that
mainly deals with the organisation as well as analysis and interpretation of a
group of numbers (Aron, Aron and Coups, 2009).
*
Prof. Suhas Shetgovekar, Faculty, Discipline of Psychology, SOSS, IGNOU, Delhi
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Inferential
Statistics: An 1. Statistics as a subject area has a vast scope and application. It finds its
Introduction application in fields like policy planning, management, education,
marketing, agriculture, medicine and so on, though, one of its major
application is in research.

2. Statistics can be categorised in to descriptive and inferential statistics. In

BPCC 104, we discussed in detail about descriptive statistics (and also
briefly touched upon inferential statistics) and its techniques. In the
present unit, we will mainly focus on inferential statistics and in
subsequent units we will discuss various statistical techniques under
inferential statistics.

BOX 1.1: Revisiting Descriptive Statistics

Descriptive statistics mainly comprises of description and organisation
of the data. It can be termed as a technique that helps in summarisation
of prominent characteristics of a distribution. Based on the properties
of the sample, the descriptive statistics can be categorised in to the
following (Mohanty and Misra, 2016, page 7):

• Statistics of location: Covers techniques like measures of central

tendency including mean, median and mode, frequency distribution,
percentiles and so on.

• Statistics of dispersion: Covers techniques related to measures of

dispersion including quartile deviation, standard deviation, range,
average deviation and variance.

• Statistics of correlation: Includes coefficients of correlation like

Pearson‟s product moment correlation, Spearman‟s rank order
correlation and Kendall‟s rank correlation. Correlation mainly helps
us understand the relationship between variables.

Refer to Box 1.1, that gives a brief description about descriptive statistics.

As you may recall, in BPCC104: Statistics for Psychological Research- I, we

discussed about the techniques mentioned in the box 1.1. We learned about
measures of central tendency including mean, median and mode, frequency
distribution, percentiles. We also focused on measures of dispersion
including quartile deviation, standard deviation, range, average deviation and
variance. Correlation was also discussed in the course.

These techniques are relevant mainly in univariate analysis of data, that is,
when there is one variable. But when we want to carry out bivariate analysis
(where there are two variables) or when we have multiple independent
variables and dependent variables, where we want to study cause and effect
relationship and so on, we could use inferential statistics.
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In BPCC104: Statistics for Psychological Research- I, we briefly explained Introduction to
Inferential
inferential statistics. Let us once again discuss the same in this unit as this Statistics
unit forms the foundation to the units that we will subsequently discuss in
this course.

1.2 CONCEPT AND MEANING OF

INFERENTIAL STATISTICS
Let us start our discussion with some examples.

Example 1: A Researcher wanted to study whether significant difference

exists in the organisational citizenship behavior of junior and senior
manager in a Multinational Company (MNC). For this purpose the
researcher selected a sample of 100 each (that is, 100 junior managers and
100 senior managers) from an MNC. The selected sample was then
administered the Organisational Citizenship Scale and data was obtained.

Example 2: A clinical psychologist wanted to study the effectiveness of a new

psychotherapy (Therapy A) on patients diagnosed with depression. The
clinical psychologist therefore administered the Becks’ Depression Inventory
on a group (N= 50) of patients diagnosed with depression, which was
followed by six months intervention based on Therapy A and then after six
months the same patients were again administered Becks’ Depression
Inventory to study the effect of the Therapy A. In this research the Pretest-
Posttest design was used.

Example 3: Yet another researcher carried out a study on emotional maturity

of early, middle and late adolescents. The researcher collected data from the
three groups (200 from each group) with the help of Emotional Maturity
Scale.

For the above examples, different statistical techniques, that necessarily fall
under Inferential statistics can be used. For instance, with regard to the first
example, the researcher could use Independent t test, as there are two groups
and significant difference between the two groups with regard to
organisational citizenship behaviour needs to be studied. Though if the
assumptions of parametric tests are not fulfilled then Mann- Whitney U test
can also be used.

With regard to the example 2, the paired t test can be used if the assumptions
of parametric statistics are met. This is so because the significant difference
between a same group, pretest and posttest, is studied.

With regard to the last example (that is, example 3), to carry out data analysis
One Way Analysis of Variance (this is a parametric test) or Kruskal- Wallis
One Way ANOVA (this is nonparametric test) can be used.

Above we mentioned about parametric and non parametric tests. the same
will be discussed in details by us in unit 4 of this course.
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Inferential
Statistics: An Let us now focus on what is inferential statistics.
Introduction
In inferential statistics, inferences are drawn about the population based on a
representative sample. After the data is collected, it is organised and
summarised and once this is done, inferential statistics can be carried out in
order to analyse the data and draw conclusions and make inferences. Thus,
with the help of inferential statistics, inferences can be drawn about the
population of the study based on the characteristics of the sample on whom
the study was carried out (Salkind, 2014).

As stated by Veeraraghavan and Shetgovekar (2016, page 5) “Inferential

statistics refers to the mathematical methods based on probability theory and
helps in reasoning and inferring the characteristic features of the sample
drawn from the larger population”. Inferential statistics can also be
effectively used to make estimations and predictions.

As stated by Aron, Aron and Coups (2013, page 2), inferential statistics is
employed by psychologists in order to make inferences and draw conclusions
based on certain data. Further, inferential statistics though computed based on
descriptive statistics of a given sample, it goes beyond the sample and it helps
in generalisation of inferences to the whole population (Mohanty and Mishra,
2016, page 8). King and Minium (2008, page, 4) described that “the purpose
of inferential statistics is to draw conclusions about the conditions that exist
in a population from study of a sample”. The process of inferential statistics
can be explained with the help of the following flowchart (refer to figure
1.1).

Selection of a representative sample

Data collection

Data analysis

Draw conclusions and make inferences about the population

Fig 1.1: Process of Inferential Statistics

Thus, for example, if we want to study the environmental attitude of

adolescents in Mumbai, we will take a representative sample (N =500) from
the population of adolescents in Mumbai. We will then administer a
standardised psychological test that measures environmental attitude to the
selected adolescents. Once the data is collected, it is organised and then
18
analysed using inferential statistics and then conclusions are drawn and Introduction to
Inferential
inferences are made for the population of adolescents in Mumbai. Statistics

Check Your Progress I

1) What is inferential statistics?

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1.3 INFERENTIAL PROCEDURES

There are two types of procedures under inferential statistics, namely
estimation and hypothesis testing. These two are discussed in detail as
follows:

1.3.1 Estimation
Estimating probability of a phenomenon is referred to as estimation
(Veeraraghavan and Shetgovekar, 2016). As we know from the explanation
of inferential statistics, that inferences are drawn from sample that is
representative of a population and these inferences can then be generalised to
the whole population. In these inferences, the researcher will make an
estimation that needs to be close to the actual or true population value.
There are two types of estimation: point estimation and interval estimation.
Point estimation: This is a type of estimation in which the value is a single
point. or example the estimation for sample mean is made as . that is
expe ted to e equal to the population mean. Point estimate omprises of
sample mean and sample proportion. he population mean is „ ‟ the sample
mean will e „x‟. In similar manner, if the population proportion is „P’ then
sample proportion will be „p’.
Interval estimation: An interval estimate is an interval or two numbers
within which the population parameter could lie. Thus, for population mean
„ ‟ the interval estimate will be a<x< b. The interval estimate is greater than
„a‟ but lesser than „ ‟. For example, an interval estimate could be 45- 47
within which it is expected that the population mean will lie. As the
researcher has an interval, he/ she is thus able to trust that the estimate is
close to the population value with 95% or 99% level of confidence. Interval
estimate comprises of confidence interval for mean and confidence interval
for proportions.
While estimations are made there could be fluctuations and these could be
due to varied reasons including chance factors and sampling error.
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Inferential
Statistics: An The inferences drawn by the researcher needs to be free of any chance
Introduction factors. For example, a researcher is studying if there exists significant
difference in job satisfaction of government and private bank employees.
After carrying out data collection and data analysis, he/she obtains results
that such a difference does exist, then such results should not be an outcome
of chance factors. If the difference falls within the range ± 1.96, then the
significant difference can be said to be real and not due to chance factors.

Fluctuations can also be as a result of sampling error that occur when the
sample selected by the researcher is not representative of the population
being studied. A sample that is not representative of the population will not
possess the same characteristics as the population and thus the results
obtained from such a sample cannot be used to draw inferences for the
population. Sampling errors can be avoided by being careful while selecting a
sample and also by having a larger sample.

1.3.2 Hypothesis Testing

One of the significant aspects of research is hypothesis testing. Hypothesis is
a tentative statement that is investigated during the process of research.
Hypothesis pertains to certain phenomenon and is based on a theory. Data is
then collected by the researcher in order to validate the hypothesis. Thus, the
hypothesis is rejected or accepted by a researcher based on the results
obtained. Hypothesis testing is referred to as “a process involving statistical
decision making with regard to population value that is based on the sample
value” (Veeraraghavan and Shetgovekar, 2016, page 9). Though, while
drawing inferences one needs to ensure that hypothesis is not incorrectly
accepted or rejected due to results that are influenced by chance factor or
confounding factors.

1.3.2.1 Types of Hypothesis

There are two types of hypothesis:

Null hypothesis: Once a researcher finalises his/her research topic and

variables after reviewing literature, he/ she will have to formulate hypothesis
based on the problem statement. In a research attempts are made by the
researcher to reject the null hypothesis(es). Null hypothesis is also referred to
as hypothesis of „no differen e‟ as null hypothesis implies that there is no
difference between two groups. It is denoted by Ho. For example, if a
researcher wants to study if there is significant difference in job satisfaction
of government and private bank employees, he/ she will formulate a null
hypothesis as „No significant difference exists in job satisfaction of public
and private bank employees‟. And then based on the results obtained the
hypothesis will be rejected or accepted.

Alternative hypothesis (also called as research hypothesis): Alternative

hypothesis can be termed as a counter proposition to the null hypothesis
20 (Veeraraghavan and Shetgovekar, 2016). It is formulated by a researcher
based on a theory. The hypothesis states that there is a significant difference Introduction to
Inferential
between two groups. It is denoted by Ha. For example, the researcher can Statistics
formulate the alternative hypothesis as „ here will be a significant difference
in job satisfaction of public and private bank employees‟. This is also a
neutral alternative hypothesis that does not provide any direction and thus is
termed as nondirectional hypothesis. Alternative hypothesis can also be
directional. For example, „Pu li bank employee have higher (or lower) job
satisfaction when compared with private bank employees‟. Such hypotheses
are formulated based on the review of literature.

Difference between null and alternative hypothesis: The difference between

null and alternative hypothesis (Salkind, 2014, page 139) are discussed as
follows:

1) The very first difference is that the alternative hypothesis is about

inequality, where it is stated that a relationship exists between the given
two variables. Whereas, null hypothesis is about equality where it is
stated that there is no relationship between the given two variables.

1) Further, the alternative hypothesis refers to the sample and the null
hypothesis refers to the population.

2) The third difference is that the null hypothesis is to be tested

indirectly and the alternative hypothesis is to be tested directly. This is
because we make inferences about the population based on the sample.

3) The fourth difference is quite interesting, as the alternative hypothesis

are usually written using Roman symbols, whereas null hypothesis are
written using Greek symbols.

For instance
The alternative hypothesis is H1 x1 x2
The null hypothesis is HO: 1 = 2

If you recall, what we have learned in BPCC104, (‘mu’ is a sym ol for

parameter mean whereas x is a symbol for sample mean.

4) The alternative hypothesis is an explicit hypothesis, whereas, the null

hypothesis is an implied hypothesis, mainly because it cannot be directly
tested.

Characteristics of a good hypothesis:Let us now discuss the characteristics

of a good hypothesis

1. The statement of hypothesis is not stated as a question but is in a

declarative form.
2. It states a relationship that is expected between the given variables.
3. The theory or literature on the basis of which the hypothesis is
formulated is reflected in that hypothesis.
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Inferential
Statistics: An 4. The hypothesis needs to be clear, to the point as well as brief.
Introduction
5. It needs to be possible to test the hypothesis.

1.3.2.2 Level of Significance

The term significance in the context of statistics implies „pro a ly true‟ that
indicates that results are free from chance factor at the specified level of
significance. This level of significance could be 0.05 level or 0.01 level. For
example, if there exists a significant difference in job satisfaction of
government and private bank employees then the researcher could either be
95% (0.05 level of significance, P<0.05) confident or 99% (0.01 level of
significance, P<0.01) confident about the results obtained. This is because
when carrying out research with human participants, 100% accuracy cannot
be achieved. Thus, there could be 5% or 1% chance that the results are due to
chance or confounding factors. Whether the null hypothesis is accepted or
rejected will depend on whether the statistical value obtained after data
analysis is more or less than the table value (tables for various statistical
techniques are provided at the end of any book on Statistics) specified at 0.05
or 0.01 level of significance. If the obtained value is higher than the table
value, then the null hypothesis is rejected, and if the obtained value is less
than the table value than the null hypothesis is accepted.

1.3.2.3 One-tailed and Two- tailed Tests

Further, any hypothesis can also be one tailed or two tailed. It is termed as
one- tailed when certain direction is given to the hypothesis or the hypothesis
is directional. For example, if the researcher is study if gender difference
exists with regard to emotional intelligence, a one-tailed hypothesis would be
“ emales have higher emotional intelligence than males” or “Males have
higher emotional intelligence than females”. Refer to figure no. 1.2 that
provides the figure for both 0.05 and 0.01 levels of significance. In one-tailed
test, in order to reject a null hypothesis, the score needs to fall in the upper
tail, that is in the top 5% of the distribution. A one-tailed test can be tested in
either of the direction.

In case of two- tailed hypothesis, the hypothesis is nondirectional and will be

stated as “Gender difference will exist with regard to emotional intelligen e”.
In case of two-tailed test, a null hypothesis can be rejected when the score
falls in the either of the top 2.5% of the distribution. Thus the level of
significance is maintained at 0.05 level (refer to figure 1.2). As the level of
significance is taken as 0.05 level, it can be taken at 0.01 level as well, in
which case the prediction will be based on the lower tail.

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 Introduction to
Inferential
a) 0.05 level of significance Statistics

0.025 (0.5 two- 0.05 (one- tailed)

tailed)

0.025 (0.5 two- tailed)

1.64 1.96

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2
3

b) 0.01 level of significance

0.005 (0.5 two- 0.01 (one- tailed)

tailed)

2.33 2.58
0.005 (0.5 two- tailed)

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2
3

Fig. 1.2: One Tailed and two Tailed Tests

The z scores for one tailed test would be -1.64 or 1.64 at 0.01 level and -2.33
or 2.33 at 0.05 level. The z scores for two tailed test would be -1.96 or 1.96
at 0.01 level and -2.58 or 2.58 at 0.01 level (as you can see in figure 1.2).

1.3.2.3 Errors in Hypothesis Testing

If we look at the process of hypothesis testing, it is based on inferences that

we draw for the population based on a sample. Thus, we can say that we
draw conclusions based on limited information and as a result there is a scope
of making errors. This can despite of ensuring that the sample is
representative of the population. Thus, in this context we can discuss about

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Inferential
Statistics: An Type I and Type II errors in hypothesis testing. Refer to the table 1.1 for
Introduction clarity in this regard.

Table 1.1: Type I and Type II Errors

Null Hypothesis is Null Hypothesis is false

true

Null Hypothesis is Type I error Decision is correct

Rejected

Null Hypothesis is Decision is correct Type II error

Accepted

As can be seen in table 1.1 a researcher will be making a correct decision

when a false null hypothesis is rejected and when a null hypothesis that is
true is accepted. However, it may so happen that a null hypothesis is rejected
even when it is true and this is termed as type I error. On the other hand when
a false null hypothesis is accepted then it is termed as type II error.

Let us now discuss the correct decisions as well as the types of errors.

Correct decision: A researcher will be making a correct decision when a

false null hypothesis is rejected and when a null hypothesis that is true is
accepted.

Type I error: In this regard a decision is taken by the researcher to reject a

null hypothesis that is actually true. The probability with regard to whether
type I error is committed is related with the level of significance, the alpha
level (α . The chances of a true null hypothesis getting rejected is high when
the alpha level is high. To put this in other words, if the level of significance
that we use to reject the null hypothesis is high, more the likelihood that type
I error is being committed.

Type II error: In this regard a decision is taken by the researcher to accept a

null hypothesis that is actually false. Type II error is represented in terms of
beta (β and this error is committed when on the basis of test of significance,
null hypothesis is accepted even when it is false.

In a way, whether the Type I error is committed or not will depend on the
level of significance that is taken by the researcher, which can be specified
before the research process starts. Therefore, the likelihood of making type I
error would be lower if a stringent alpha level is used. Though, when, the
alpha level is stringent, the likelihood of making Type II error could increase
(Mohanty and Misra, 2016). Thus, it can be said that the relationship between
making type I and type II error is inverse in nature. Though, if we want to
ensure that both the errors are avoided, then the sample size can be increased.

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1.3.2.4 Power of a Test Introduction to
Inferential
Statistics
Let us now come to the next significant term, that is power of the test. Power
of a test can be related with type II error. Power of a test can be explained as
a measure of how sensitive the experiment or research is in detecting the real
effect that the independent variable has on the dependent variable (Mohanty
and Misra, 2016). Thus, it mainly involves rejecting the null hypothesis, as
when null hypothesis is rejected it can be said that the independent variable is
having an effect on the dependent variable. Thus, the Power of a test can also
be described in terms of probability related to rejection of null hypothesis
when it is false. Thus,

Power = 1- probability of type II error

Putting this differently,

Power = 1- β or β = 1- Power

Power of a test can also be described as probability of rejecting a null

hypothesis that is actually false. Thus,

Power = P (rejection of null hypothesis)= 1- β

Where, P stands for probability.

The values of probability ranges from 0.00 to 1.00 (Mohanty and Misra,
2016). The more is this value the more the experiment or research will be
sensitive in detecting the real effect and the less is the value, the less is the
experiment or research will be sensitive in detecting the real effect. Further,
as we increase the sample size, the Power of a test will also increase.

Check Your Progress II

1) What is power of test?

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1.4 PROCEDURE FOR TESTING HYPOTHESIS

We understood some of the important aspects of hypothesis testing. Let us
now look at the procedure for testing the hypothesis in previous section.

Step 1: Null hypothesis(es)/ alternative hypothesis(es) are specified.

In the earlier sub section, we discussed about the null hypothesis (es) and
alternative hypotheses. In the very first step of hypothesis testing procedure,
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Inferential
Statistics: An null hypothesis(es)/ alternative hypothesis(es) are specified. This will mainly
Introduction depend on the objective,(s) and nature of the study as well as the existing
review of literature.

Step 2: A level of significance is selected.

We discussed about the level of significance in the previous section. In step

two, the level of significance is selected. As we have mentioned under the
type I error, the level of significance or alpha level is to be stated before you
start with the research process. Thus, in the second step we will state the level
of significance for our research.

Step 3: Based on the parameter specified in the null hypothesis (es), a

suitable statistic is calculated.

A sample is taken by the researcher and data is collected. Statistic that is thus
obtained from the sample (representative) is then used in order to make an
estimation about the population parameters.

Step 4: Decision is made whether to accept or reject the null hypothesis

(es).

In this regard, based on the P value or probability level selected under step 2,
decision is taken by the researcher whether to accept or reject the null
hypothesis.

Check Your Progress III

1) List the steps in hypothesis testing.

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1.5 LET US SUM UP

To summarise, in inferential statistics, inferences are drawn about the
population based on a representative sample. After the data is collected, it is
organised and summarised and once this is done, inferential statistics can be
carried out in order to analyse the data and draw conclusions and make
inferences. The types of procedures under inferential statistics, namely
estimation and hypothesis testing were also discussed in the unit. Point
estimation is a type of estimation in which the value is a single point.
Whereas an interval estimate is an interval or two numbers within which the
population parameter could lie. Hypothesis testing is referred to as a process
involving statistical decision making with regard to population value that is
26 based on the sample value. The unit also covered the types of hypotheses,
level of significance, one tail and two tail test, rrors in hypothesis testing and Introduction to
Inferential
power of a test. Lastly the procedure for hypothesis testing was also Statistics
highlighted.

1.6 REFERENCES
Aaron, A., Aaron, E. N., & Coups, E. J. (2013). Statistics for psychology.
New Delhi: Dorling Kindersley (India) Pvt. Ltd.
Best, J. W and Kahn, J. V. (1999). Research in Education. New Delhi:
Prentice Hall of India Pvt. Ltd. for information on research designs.
Kerlinger, Fred, N. (1995). Foundations of Behavioural Research. Bangalore:
Prism Books Pvt. Ltd. for information on research, research designs, types of
research and methods of data collection.
King, M; Minium, W. (2008). Statistical Reasoning in the Behavioural
Sciences. Delhi: John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.
Mangal, S. K. (2002). Statistics in psychology and Education. new Delhi: Phi
Learning Private Limited.
Minium, E. W., King, B. M., & Bear, G. (2001). Statistical reasoning in
psychology and education. Singapore: John-Wiley.
Mohanty, B and Misra, S. (2016). Statistics for Behavioural and Social
Sciences. Delhi: Sage.
Salkind, N. J. (2014). Statistics for People who (think that) hate statistics.
New Delhi: SAGE.
Veeraraghavan, V and Shetgovekar, S. (2016). Textbook of Parametric and
Non-parametric Statistics. Delhi: Sage.

1.7 KEY WORD

Alternativehypothesis: Alternative hypothesis can be termed as a counter
proposition to the null hypothesis.

Inferential statistics: In inferential statistics, inferences are drawn about the

population based on a representative sample. With the help of inferential
statistics, inferences can be drawn about the population of the study based on
the characteristics of the sample on whom the study was carried out (Salkind,
2014).

Interval estimation: An interval estimate is an interval or two numbers

within which the population parameter could lie.

Null hypothesis: Null hypothesis is also referred to as hypothesis of „no

differen e‟ as null hypothesis implies that there is no difference between two
groups.

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Inferential
Statistics: An Point estimation: This is a type of estimation in which the value is a single
Introduction point.

1.8 ANSWERS TO CHECK YOUR PROGRESS

Check Your Progress I

1) What is inferential statistics?

As stated by Veeraraghavan and Shetgovekar (2016, page 5) “Inferential
statistics refers to the mathematical methods based on probability theory
and helps in reasoning and inferring the characteristic features of the
sample drawn from the larger population”.
Check Your Progress II
1) What is power of a test?
Point Power of a test can be explained as a measure of how sensitive the
experiment on research is in detecting the test effect that the independent
variable has on the dependent variable.
Check Your Progress III
1) List the steps hypothesis testing.
The steps in testing the hypothesis are as follows:
Step 1: Null hypothesis(es)/ alternative hypothesis(es) are specified.
Step 2: A level of significance is selected.
Step 3: Based on the parameter specified in the null hypothesis (es), a
suitable statistic is calculated.
Step 4: Decision is made whether to accept or reject the null hypothesis
(es).

1.9 UNIT END QUESTIONS

1) Discuss the concept and meaning of inferential statistics.

2) Explain the types of hypothesis and level of significance.

3) Discuss one-tailed and two-tailed test with the help of a diagram.

4) Explain the types of errors in hypothesis testing with suitable examples.

5) Discuss the procedure for hypothesis testing.

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