Untitled
Untitled
Untitled
y a+bt
where a intercept
b slope
t time
t demand
1 22-Jan 547
2 feb 578
3 march 654
4 april 789 a 591.7121
5 may 964
6 june 878 b 35.87762
7 july 788
8 august 888 forecast demand on:
9 sept 978 1 23-Mar
10 oct 999
11 nov 879 2 23-Sep
12 dec 957
3 24-Jan
4 24-Apr
y 1129.876
y 1345.142
y 1488.653
y 1596.286
exponential smooting method:
formula last period's forcast*Aplha* (last period's demand +last period's forecast)
alpha (0.6) alpha (0.7)
sales forecast error abs (error) forecast error abs (error)
987
587 987 400 400 987 400 400
654 747 93 93 707 53 53
875 691.2 -183.8 183.8 669.9 -205.1 205.1
921 801.48 -119.52 119.52 813.47 -107.53 107.53
876 873.192 -2.808 2.808 888.741 12.741 12.741
948 874.8768 -73.1232 73.1232 879.8223 -68.1777 68.1777
789 918.75072 129.75072 129.75072 927.54669 138.54669 138.54669
654 840.900288 186.900288 186.900288 830.564007 176.564007 176.564007
564 728.760115 164.760115 164.7601152 706.9692021 142.9692021 142.9692021
564 629.904046 65.9040461 65.90404608 606.89076063 42.89076063 42.89076063
987 590.361618 -396.638382 396.6383816 576.86722819 -410.132772 410.1327718
578 828.344647 250.344647 250.3446474 863.96016846 285.9601685 285.9601685
964 678.137859 -285.862141 285.8621411 663.78805054 -300.211949 300.2119495
887 849.655144 -37.3448564 37.34485642 873.93641516 -13.0635848 13.06358484
965 872.062057 -92.9379426 92.93794257 883.08092455 -81.9190755 81.91907545
879 927.824823 48.824823 48.82482297 940.42427736 61.42427736 61.42427736
2531.519161 2500.231187
147.0724227715
A B C D E F
(0.8) C
period demand forecast forecast error ABS (error) SQUARED ERROR
1 875
2 887 875 12 12 144
3 845 884.6 -39.6 39.6 1568.16
4 865 852.92 12.08 12.08 145.926400000001
5 784 862.584 -78.584 78.584 6175.44505599999
6 779 799.7168 -20.7168 20.7168 429.185802240002
7 871 783.14336 87.85664 87.85664 7718.78919208959
8 845 853.428672 -8.428672 8.428672 71.0425116835841
9 914 846.6857344 67.3142656 67.3142656 4531.21035326734
10 975 900.53714688 74.46285312 74.4628531 5544.71649477069
11 964 960.107429376 3.892570624 3.89257062 15.1521060628275
12 831 963.2214858752 -132.221485875 132.221486 17482.5213270457
13 963 857.44429717504 105.555702825 105.555703 11142.0063988713
14 975 941.888859435 33.111140565 33.1111406 1096.34762951466
15 897 968.377771887 -71.377771887 71.3777719 5094.78631955283
16 886 911.2755543774 -25.2755543774 25.2755544 638.853649084922
17 798 891.05511087548 -93.0551108755 93.0551109 8659.25366004789
18 909 816.6110221751 92.3889778249 92.3889778 8535.72322353061
19 954 890.522204435 63.477795565 63.4777956 4029.4305297895
20 963 941.304440887 21.695559113 21.6955591 470.697285225512
1043.0949 83493.2479387769
52.15
4174.66
52.58
4065.4
53.78
3937.37
51.64
3880.05
D E F G H
absolute accuracy
forecast error ABS (error) SQUARED ERROPercentage err percentage accuracy