UNIT 2 ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Structure
2.1 Introduction
Objectives
2.2 Energy Units
2.3 Current Patterns of Energy Consumption
2.4 World Energy Demand and Future Projection
2.5 EnergyEndUse
2.6 Summary
2.7 Terminal Questions

2.1 INTRODUCTION
In the previous unit, you have learnt about the crucial role of energy in the economic
growth of industrialising countries. You have also studied about the energy resource
base of the Earth and learnt that energy is a useful metric for estimating the canying
capacity of the Earth. You would agree that to promote the sustainable use of energy,
we need to evaluate the current energy consumption and bring the issue of equity in
energy use to the forefront of the energy-environment debate.
While studying Unit 1, you have come across many units like joules, ergs, watt, Btu,
Gtoe, etc. We begin this unit by defining these terms. Then we present the data about
the patterns of energy consumption in the world and discuss the current energy
demand and future projections.
In the next unit, we discuss the technologies currently used for energy production as
I these are equally important in any analysis of energy-environment relationship.

Objectives
After studying this unit, you should be able to:

define various units of energy and power;

analyse the world-wide patterns of energy consumption region wise as well as by
fuel type;
discuss the energy consumption pattern of Asian countries, in general and India,
in particular; and
, analyse the future energy demand projections region wise and by fuel type. '

2.2 ENERGY UNITS

You have learnt about the concept of energy in the course MED-001. It is defined as
the capacity to do work. Energy is measured in ergs or joules. Although it is common
to talk of 'energy generation' and 'energy consumption', strictly speaking, energy is
never 'created' or 'consumed'; it is just 'converted' from one form to another.
Therefore, a more useful entity is that of power, defined as the rate at which energy
is used or converted from one form to another. The unit of power most commonly
used is watt.

I One watt is equal to one joule per second. In symbols, it is written as

1W = 1 JS-', where W stands for watt, J for joules and s for second.
You would have come across electric heaters of 1 kilowatt rating. What does this
mean? One kilowatt (kW) is equal to 1,000 watts. So one kilowatt rating means that
~ n e r &and Environment: the device consumes 1000 joules of energy in one second. Horse Power (H.P.) is yet
Current Concerns another unit of power. One H.P. is equal to work done at a rate of 550 ft lbs-I (foot-
pounds per second). It is equal to 748 watts:
1 H.P. = 748 watts
Water pumping systems are generally rated in terms of H.P., for example. 0.5,0.75, 1,
1.5 and 2 H.P. etc.

A 1 H.P. pump can move 1 pound water to a distance of 550 feet in one second.
Almost all energy generating or consuming devices carry a power rating (or rated
capacity) in watts and multiples of watts, e.g., kilowatt, megawatt and so on. You may
have read in the newspapers that such and such a city requires 500 megawatts of
power. How much energy does the city need in one second? You can calculate this by
making use of the conversion factors given in Table 2.1.
Table 2.1: Units of power and conversion factors

I Unit and symbol 1 Conversion factor (in Watts)

kilowatt (kW) I kW = 1000W

= lo3 w

megawatt (MW) 1 MW = 1,000 kW

= lo6 w

1 gigawatt (GW)

terawatt (TW) / I TW = 1OOOGW

To give you an idea of scale, a typical large modem coal or nuclear power station
has a rated capacity of around 1.3 gigawatts (GW), while India produced a total of
533 terawatts of electricity in 2001.
Kilowatt-hours or (kwh) is the unit by which electricity and gas are sold in many
countries including India. One unit measured by the electricity meters in our homes is
equal to 1 kilowatt-hour.

A device of rating 1 kW consumes one kilowatt-hour or one unit of energy in one

hour. So, if you run a geyser of 2 kW rating for one hour, it ideally consumes 2 units
of energy.
Given this information, can you work out the energy consumption in one day in your
home or office? Give it a try.
 Energy Consumption
SAQ 1
Write down the power ratings of various devices that you use in your homes. Some
examples are given below:
Fluorescent tube 40 W
CFL 5W,7W,9W,llW,13W,15W
Electric bulb 15 W, 40 W, 60 W, 100 W
Fan
Refrigerator
Cooler
Water Pump
TV
Radio
Washing machine
AC
Microwave oven
Calculate the power consumed in your home on one typical day in various seasons.
For example, in Delhi, you could do the calculations for a day in summer (e.g., month
of May1 June), winter (e.g., month of December1 January) spring (e.g., month of
March. April) and autumn (e.g., month of September1October), respectively.
Can you discern an energy consumption pattern from this data? How can you optimise
or reduce your consumption?

For larger quantities of energy, multiples of kWhs are used. The most commonly used
unit is the terawatt hour (TWh) which is 1,000,000,000 k w h or lo9 kwh.
To give you an idea of scale, the total electricity consumption in India was about
497 TWh in 2001. Remember, however, that this represents consumption of
electricity, and not total energy consumption. It does not include all the direct heat
supplies (kerosene, wood, gas, etc.) or transport fuels like petrol, dlesel, etc.
You have also come across the unit of Btu in Unit 1 (recall Fig. 1.2). It is the British
thermal unit, an old measure for the heat content of various fuels. In terms of
kilowatt-hours, it is given as
1 k w h = 3,413 Btu.
The USA still uses the Btu.
The total amount of energy used is often measured in terms of primary energy
consumption that is the amount of energy in the basic fuels used by energy
conversion devices, whether for electricity production, heating or transport.
However, you must remember that primary energy figures for the total energy in the
fuels used by energy conversion devices are much larger than the finally delivered
energy, as utilised by consumers. This is because there are losses in the conversion
process in power plants and along the transmission and distribution (T&D) grid
network.
This is particularly true of electricity: conventional coal or nuclear-fired power plants
have conversion efficiencies of around 35 %. Even the best modern gas-fired power
stations can only convert around 50 % of the energy in the input fuel to electricity.
Moreover, up to 10 % of the electricity may be lost when it is transmitted along power
lines to consumers, depending on the distances involved. Finally, consumer devices
operate with varying degrees of efficiency. For example, some part of the energy used
by coolers or heaters is lost due to poor insulation in buildings.
Primary energy figures, therefore, tell us only a part of the story. As we shall see in
the subsequent units, there is also a need, when comparing technologies and energy
Energy and Environment: systems to consider the overall efficiency of energy conversion and transmission, and
Current Concerns the use to which the energy is put.
The Battle of the Units
Measuring energy is not as simple as it might seem to you. Given that there are many
ways in which energy is generated and used, it is not surprising that there are many
different, often confusing, ways in which it is measured.
We have mentioned kwh, which is the most familiar unit to us since it is used in our
electricity bills.
However, energy analysts sometimes use the basic unit of energy, the joule (J) or
multiples of joules. Since one watt is one joule per second,

1 k w h = 1000 W x 1 hour
= 1000 joules per second x 60 minutes x 60 seconds
= 36,00,000 joules

The joule (J) is, however, a very small unit. In the energy sector, larger multiples of
joules are used, e.g., peta-joules (PJ) and exa-joules (EJ):
1 PJ = 1,000 tera joules = loi5 joules
1 EJ = 1,000 peta joules = 10" joules

We have also used units like mtoes or the gtoes in Unit 1, which are the European
standard units. These render the energy content of all fuels, mainly for statistical
comparison purposes, in terms of the equivalent of oil that would have the same
amount of energy content. The energy content of all fuels is now presented in terms of
tons of oil equivalent, or more commonly, million tons of oil equivalent (mtoes). Gtoe
is giga-tons of oil equivalent.
However, in this course, we will use the more familiar units like kwh, Twh, etc. We
give the conversion factor for the sake of completeness:
1 mtoe = 11.63 TWh, and 1 TWh =0.086 mtoe.
You need not memorise all the units explained here. But you should know what these
terms mean. Having familiarised you with the units of energy and power that we will
be using throughout this course, we now focus on various patterns of energy
consumption.
- - - - - - - -

2.3 CURRENT PATTERNS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION

A study group conducted a primary treatment of the data extracted from the Energy
Statistics Yearbook of the United Nations, the World Energy Statistics and Balance by
OECDIIEA and other energy-related statistics including the Yearbook of Forest
Products by FAO. The interim report provides a preliminary summary of the present
energy consumption patterns as a result of the above endeavour. The International
Energy Outlook 2004 and the Energy Statistics Yearbook of the United Nations
provides information on the energy consumption pattern for analysing global
environmental problems, by country and by region and by degree of socio-economic
development.
World Major Energy Producers and Consumers
In 2001, three countries - the United States, Russia, and China - were the leading
producers and consumers of world energy. The United States supplied
71.6 quadrillion Btu of primary energy, significantly more than the
 44.9 quadrillion Btu produced by Russia or the 36.3 quadrillion Btu produced by Energy Consumption
China (see Fig. 2. la). These three countries produced 38 percent and consumed 41
percent of the world's total energy.

80
70

'---
3

E
0
60
50
40
.-
5 30
s 20
10
0
Countries Countries

USA w Russia China

(a) (b)

Fig.2.l: Leading a) producers and b) consumers of world energy in 2001

The United States, Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, and Canada were the world's five
largest producers of energy in 2001, supplying 47.9 percent of the world's total
energy. The next five leading producers of primary energy were the United Kingdom,
Iran, Norway, Australia, and Mexico, and together they supplied an additional
12.8 percent of the world's total energy.
Let us now look at the world energy consumption so far (Fig. 2.2).
(exajoules)

--
- Developing countries
1-
OECD countries
Transition countries (former Soviet Union and Central Europe)
Total

Fig.2.2: Total energy consumption by region up to 1993

The United States, China, Russia, Japan, and Germany were the world's five largest
consumers of primary energy in 2001, accounting for 49.8 percent of world energy
consumption. They were followed by India, Canada, France, the United Kingdom, and
Brazil, which together accounted for an additional 13.5 percent of world energy
consumption. The United States consumed 97.1 quadrillion Btu, almost two and one-
half times as much as the 39.7 quadrillion Btu consumed by China, while Russia
25

I
Energy and Environment: consumed 28.2 quadrillion Btu (see Fig.2.lb). Compare these numbers with the
Current Concerns 12.8 quadrillion Btu consumed in India in 2001. How does the per capita energy
consumption in India compare with the other countries? You may like to work it out.
Try SAQ 2.

SAQ 2
Use the data given so far and the population data of US, China, Russia and India in
2001 to calculate the per capita energy consumption for the following countries:

USA
China
Russia
India

You may now like to look at the consumption patterns in Asia in some detail.
Asian Energy Consumption Pattern and its Effects on the Global Environment
Asia, to which Japan belongs, is expected to increase its energy consumption at the
fastest rate in the world because of its large population, accounting for about 50
percent of the world population, and the anticipated rapid economic growth of the
newly industrialising economies (NIEs) and developing countries like China and
India. However, the adverse effects of their energy consumption have already become
evident, in the form of acid rain, for example. Concern is also expressed over such
global atmospheric environmental effects as the greenhouse effect.
The knowledge on Asia's present energy consumption pattern, geo-scientific features
and environment is not sufficient for formulating adequate measures to cope up with
the environmental problems foreseen in the future. Besides, the great diversity
amongst the Asian nations in energy consumption and socio-economic conditions will
make such studies even more difficult.
The World Energy Statistics and Balance by OECDIIEA, issued in November 1988 as
a bulletin and June 1989 as a formal report, provided for the first time a
comprehensive coverage that included the developing countries. The summary of the
report is as follows:

Consumption of energy is growing in Asia faster than any other region of the
world. Asia also depends heavily on coal, which imposes a heavy load oi the
environment. These trends are becoming even more pronounced recently.

If we look at country wise consumption, China, Japan and India are the major
consumers of energy in Asi.a. Both China and India have a pattern of energy
consumption in which coal is the primary source of energy; further, their demands
for energy are increasing fast.

Overall, NIEs and Japan are shifting their dependence from liquid fuel to natural
gas and nuclear power, both of which give rise to lesser environmental problems
than petroleum. In contrast, India has an ambitious programme to use a liquid fuel
i.e., ethanol in the transport sector. It is presently marketed under the name,
"gasohol". The idea is to replace the conventional gasoline fuel by ethanol to the
extent of about 5% in the first instance. However, the rate of solid fuel
consumption is also increasing. The Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are
introducing natural gas and developing hydroelectric generation. This trend
should be highly valued from the viewpoint of global environmental conservation.

On the subject of energy consumption by sector, Japan in recent times has

exhibited a tendency for decreasing share of the industry sector while increasing
its energy shares of the transportation and household sectors. By contrast, the
 ASEAN countries, LDCs and NIEs are increasing the energy share of the industry Energy Consumption
sector. The transportation sector is notably increasing its share in NIEs.

Forests are declining in Southeast Asia at the fastest rate; the rate is faster than
even the forest decline of Brazil. Charcoals are cited as a major cause for the
forest decline. Firewood and charcoal production accounts for the majority of
timber production.
In MED-001, you have studied that global warming due to GHG emissions is one of
the major environmental problems being faced today. C 0 2has the maximum share in
the GHGs. We now discuss briefly the impact of fossil fuel consumption on the COz
emissions.
Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels
The total world carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption of petroleum, natural
gas, and coal, and the flaring of natural gas increased from 5.894 billion metric tons
carbon equivalent in 1992 to 6.568 billion metric tons in 2001, or by 11.4 percent. The
average annual growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions over the period was
1.2 percent (Note: Carbon dioxide emissions are measured here in metric tons carbon
equivalent. Tons of carbon equivalent can be converted to tons of carbon dioxide gas
by multiplying by 44/12.)
The United States, China, Russia, Japan, and India were the world's five largest
sources of carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption and flaring of fossil fuels
in 2001, producing 52 percent of the world total. The next five leading producers of
carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption and flaring of fossil fuels were
Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom, Italy, and South Korea, and together they
produced an additional 12 percent of the world total. In 2001, the total United States
carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption and flaring of fossil fuels were
1.565 billion metric tons carbon equivalent. This was more than one and three-fourths
times as much as the 832 million metric tons produced by China, while Russia
produced 440 million metric tons.
The developed countries account for a 79.8% of total world C 0 2 emissions. The
absolute emission ranking for selected countries is given in Table 2.2.

Table 2.2: Country wise percentage of world total COz emissions

1 Country I Percentage of world total C02 emissions 1

1 United States 1 23.3% 1
China
Russia 7.28%
1 Japan I 5.30% 1
1 ~ermany I 4.66% 1
You may also like to know the share of C 0 2emissions from each of the fuel types,
viz., petroleum, coal and natural gas.

COz emissions from the consumption of petroleum

In 2001, petroleum consumption was the world's primary source of carbon
dioxide emissions accounting for 42 percent of the total C 0 2 emissio.ns from the
consumption and flaring of fossil fuels. Between 1992 and 2001 emissions from
i the consumption of petroleum increased by 262 million metric tons carbon
1 equivalent, or 10.5 percent, rising from 2.499 to 2.761 billion metric tons. The
United States was the largest producer of carbon dioxide from the consumption of
I
I
petroleum in 2001 and accounted for 24 percent of the world total. Japan was the
I
Energy and Environment: second largest producer, followed by China, Russia, and Germany, and together
Current Concerns these four countries accounted for an additional 20 percent.

COz emissions from the consumption of coal

Coal ranked second as a source of carbon dioxide emissions from the
consumption and flaring of fossil fuels in 2001, accounting for 37 percent of the
total. World carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption of coal totalled
2.4 billion metric tons carbon equivalent in 2001, up 8.7 percent from the 1992
level of 2.2 billion metric tons. China and the United States were the two largest
producers of carbon dioxide from the consumption of coal in 2001. Together they
accounted for 49 percent of the world total. India, Russia, and Japan accounted for
an additional 16 percent.

COz emissions from the consumption of natural gas

Carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption and flaring of natural gas
accounted for the remaining 21 percent of carbon dioxide emissions from the
consumption and flaring of fossil fuels in 2001. Emissions from the consumption
and flaring of natural gas increased from I .I62 billion metric tons carbon
equivalent in 1992 to 1.379 billion metric tons in 2001, or by 18.7 percent. The
United States and Russia were the two largest producers of carbon dioxide from
the consumption and flaring of natural gas in 2001 and together they accounted
for 40 percent of the world total. The United Kingdom, Germany, and Canada
accounted for an additional 10 percent.
You may want to know about the contribution of India to carbon emissions. In
2001, India, with 251 million metric tons of carbon equivalent emitted, ranked fjfth in
the world in carbon emissions, behind the United States, China, Russia and Japan (see
Fig. 2.3).

e 250

l
c
i
0 200

8
Y
u
.3
'58
b
too
I
g
.3
50
3
0

Fig.2.3: ~ndia'sCOz emissions from 1990 to 2001 (Source: EIA)

However, India's carbon emissions stood at only 80% of Japan's (316 million
metric tons of carbon equivalent) total and less than one-sixth of the United States'
(1,565 million metric tons) carbon emissions during the same year. Between 1990 and
2001, India's carbon emissions increased by an astonishing 61%, a rate surpassed only
by China's 1 11% increase during the samc time period
Still, Indla's per capita carbon emissions are relatively low. At 0.25 metric tons of
carbon per person in 2001, India's per capita carbon emissions were less than one-
quarter of the world average and 22 times less than those for the United States.
However, India's contribution to world carbon emissions is expected to increase in the
coming years, with an estimated average annual growth rate of 3.1% between 2001
and 2025 (as compared to 3.4% in China and 1.5% in the United States). The absolute
increase in emissions will partially be a function of the degree to which coal is relied Energy Consumption
upon as a major energy source.
The rise in India's carbon emissions has been mainly due to the low energy efficiency
of its coal-fired power plants. It is also on account of the poor quality of the Indian
coal, which means high ash content. Many of India's highly-polluting coal-fired
thermal power plants will have to remain in operation for the next couple of decades
for the following reasons: ,

High capital costs associated with replacing existing coal-fired plants,

A scarcity of capital, and
The long lead time required to introduce advanced coal technologies.
If, however, coal consumption is substituted by oil and natural gas, India's overall
carbon emissions would be surely reduced. India's per capita carbon emissions are
also expected to increase in the coming years due to the rapid pace of urbanisation, a
conversion away from non-commercial towards commercial fuels, increased vehicular
usage and the continued use of older and more inefficient coal-fired plants. The
growth of energy-intensive industries that has taken place in the country during the
course of its economic expansion, coupled with the very little action on energy
efficiency and conservation measures in most industrial sectors will also add to these
emissions. In fact, due to fast-paced industrialisation, per capita emissions are
expected to triple by 2020, which is a worrying scenario indeed.
In this section, we have presented data about the current trends in energy consumption
and C 0 2 emissions in the world, region wise as well as by fuel type. You have also
learnt about the Indian scenario. You may now like to do an exercise.based on these
data.
~ - -

SAQ 3

a) Compare the energy consumption trends and C 0 2emissions of India with those
of the developed European nations, USA and other Asian countries like Japan and
China from 1990 to 2001.

b) Analyse the statement: The richest countries with 20% of the world population
consume 80% of all world enerw.

Let us now examine the projections of world energy demand.

2.4 WORLD ENERGY DEMAND AND FUTURE

PROJECTION
The total world energy consumption and energy consumption by region from 1970 to
2025 are shown in Figs. 2.4a and b. You can see that the world energy demand will
continue its rapid growth. These projections tell us that the overall energy
consumption will rise by 54 percent in 24 years, from 404 quadrillion British thermal
units (Btu) in 2001 to 623 quadrillion Btu in 2025 (Fig. 2.4a).
In the industrialised world, energy use is expected to grow at the rate of 1.2 percent
per year. In the transitional economies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet
Union (EEJFSU) growth in energy demand is projected to average 1.5 percent per
year. However, in the developing world, primary energy consumption is projected to
grow at an average annual rate of 2.7 percent between 2001 and 2025 (Fig. 2.4b).
Thus, the developing nations are largely expected to account for the increase in world
energy consumption. In particular, energy demand in the developing economies of -
Asia, which include China and India, is projected to more than double over the next
quarter century. This is because faster than average growth is expected for the
developing nations.
Energy and Environment: i
Current Concerns 300 !i
1
i
1

1
4
,

Rig.2.4; World primary energy consumption from 1970-2025: a) total; and b) by region. Here EE
refers to Eastern Europe and FSU to former Soviet Union
(Source: EIA Intemational Energy Outlook 2004)

Let us see how much of energy is derived from various sources of energy.
World Energy Consumption by Source of Energy
Fig. 2.5 shows the history and projections of world energy consumption by energy
source. It suggests an increased consumption of all primary energy sources over the
forecast period. An underlying assumption is that the fossil fuel prices would remain
relatively low. Therefore, the costs of generating energy from other fuels are not
expected to become competitive; as a result, much of the increase in future energy
demand is projected to be supplied by oil, natural gas, and coal. It is possible,
however, that as environmental programmes or government policies - particularly
those designed to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions, such as the Kyoto
Protocol - are implemented, the outlook changes. Then non-fossil fuels (including
nuclear power and renewable energy sources such as hydroelectricity, geothermal,
biomass, solar, and wind power) could become more attractive. These projections also
assume that government laws in place as on October 1,2003, remain unchanged over
the fGrecast period.

Fig. 2.5: World primary energy consumption from 1970 to 2025 by source of energy
(Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2004)

Let us now look at these sources individually.

Oil
Oil is expected to remain the dominant energy fuel throughout the forecast period,
with its share of total world energy consumption remaining unchanged at 39 percent
through 2025. In the industrialised world, increases in oil use are expected to be
primarily in the transportation sector, where there are currently no available fuels to Energy Consumption
compete significantly with oil products. Oil use for electricity generation is expected
to decline, and other fuels (especially natural gas) are expected to provide more
favourable alternatives.

In the developing world, oil consumption is projected to increase for all end uses
unless the oil prices become prohibitive. In some countries where fuels such as wood
have been widely used in the past for cooking, the use of alternatives is being
encouraged, for example, gas, diesel generators (as well as distributed generators,
such as solar photovoltaics) to dissuade rural populations from decimating
surrounding forests and vegetation - most notably, in Sub-Saharan Africa, Central and
South America, and Southeast Asia.
Natural Gas
Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing primary energy source worldwide,
maintaining average growth of 2.2 percent annually over the 2001-2025 period
(Fig.2.6). In comparison, 1.9-percent average annual growth rates are projected for oil
and for renewable sources, 1.6-percent annual growth is projected for coal, and 0.6
percent annual growth is projected for nuclear power. Total world natural gas
consumption is projected to rise from 90 trillion cubic feet in 2001 to 151 trillion
cubic feet in 2025. The infrastructure necessary to expand natural gas use has not been
as widely established in the developing world as it has in.the industrialised world.
Therefore, natural gas use is not expected to grow enough in the developing world to
accommodate all of the increased demand for energy.

Year World total

natural gas
consumption
(in trillion
cubic feet)
200 1 90

2010 105

2015 118

2020 134

2025 151

Fig.2.6: World natural gas consumption from 2001-2025 (Source: IEO, 2004)

Natural gas is expected to remain an important supply source for new electric power
generation in the future. It is seen as the desired option for electric power, given its
efficiency relative to other energy sources. Natural gas is also environmentally
attractive because it emits less sulphur dioxide, carbon dioxide, and particulate matter
than oil or coal. This fact makes it a more attractive choice for countries interested in
reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Combined-cycle gas turbine power plants offer
some of the highest commercially available plant efficiencies. Lately India too is
basing some of its new power generating capacities on the use of natural gas. The
objective is also to reduce its dependence on coal. India is also negotiating for a
natural gas pipeline from Iran via Pakistan. Besides, India's capital city New Delhi
has its public transport system running on the Compressed Natural as
(CNG).

31
Energy and Environment: Coal
Current Concerns
Coal use worldwide is projected to increase by 2.3 billion tons between 2001 and
2025. Substantial declines in coal use are projected for Western Europe and Eastern
Europe, where natural gas is increasingly being used to fuel new growth in electric
power generation and for other uses in the industrial and building sectors. In the
developing world, however, larger increases in coal use are projected for China and
India, where coal supplies rue plentiful. Together, China and India account for 85
percent of the projected rise in coal use in the developing world and 70 percent of the
total world increment in coal demand over the forecast period.
The demand projections for coal made by the Planning Commission, Government of
India are based on end-use analysis of power, cement, iron and steel sectors assuming
a GDP growth of around 4% in the period 1997 - 2012.
The annual average demand growth rate for coal projected for the above period is
6.8%. The domestic supply will be coming from the existing mines as well as new
projects.
Table 2.2: Coal demand and supply forecasts for India (Million Tons)

Demand 323 576 872

Domestic supply 298 484 652
Deficit 25 92 220
The deficit is made up through imports.
Nuclear Power
The prospects for nuclear power have been reassessed in the light of the higher
capacity utilisation rates reported for many existing nuclear facilities and no
substantial change is foreseen (see Fig. 2.7).

Fig.2.7: World installed nuclear capacity, 2001-2025 (Source: IEO, 2004)

It is expected that fewer retirements of existing plants will occur than previously
projected. Extensions of operating licenses (or the equivalent) for nuclear power
plants are expected to be granted among the countries of the industrialised world and
the EEPSU, slowing the decline in nuclear generation. Indla has recently drawn up
plans for additional nuclear power sapacity of more than 8000 MW within the next 5
to 7 years. The idea is to raise the cumulative nuclear power capacity within the
country to some respectable levels.
So far you have studied how the world energy demand is projected to grow in the next
20 years. You have also learnt about the projections of the use of energy from
different sources. These are estimates made in 2004 and could change with any Energy Consumption
drastic changes in the situation. Energy intensity is one more parameter'which should
be analysed for the future projections.
Energy Intensity
The rate of energy intensity (defined as energy consumption per dollar of gross
domestic product) grcwth is expected to be considerably higher. Of course, continued
improvements in energy intensity are also expected. As per the IE02000 forecast,
energy intensity in the industrialised world was expected to improve (decrease) by
1.1 percent per year between 1997 and 2020. Energy intensity is also projected to
improve in the developing countries by 1.O percent per year as their economies begin
to behave more like those of the industrialised countries. This would be due to an
improvement in the standards of living that accompany the projected expansion. The
energy intensity in Eastern Europe and the FSU is also projected to improve along
with the expected recovery from the economic and social declines of the early 1990s
(Fig. 2.8). However, they are expected to remain high relative to the industrialised and
developing regions through 2020.

China has enjoyed particularly strong improvement in its energy intensity over the
past two decades, attributable to the strong economic growth experienced in the
country, falling from a high of 117.2 thousand Btu per dollar of GDP in 1976 to
39.6 thousand Btu per dollar in 1997. Between 1978 and 1995, gross domestic product
increased by an average 10.0 percent per year in China, whereas energy use grew by
4.2 percent per year over the same period.

History
h
fi
13
70 - I
Projections

-
- Developing
A
'

23 10 Industrialised

2 0
C1: 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Fig.2.8: World energy intensity by region, 1970-2020

(Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2000)

In 2001, India's energy intensity (energy consumption per dollar of GDP)'stood at

25,307 Btu per $1995. This figure is one of the highest in Asia, surpassed only by
Pakistan (26,229 Btu per $1995) and China (35,619 Btu per $1995). India's still
elevated energy intensity level is due in large part to the growth of energy-intensive
industries that has taken place in the country during the course of its economic
expansion. This is compounded due to the virtual absence of energy efficiency and
conservation measures in most industrial sectors.
We should also look at the projections of carbon dioxide emissions to form a complete
picture.
Carbon dioxide Emissions
World carbon dioxide emissions are expected to increase from about 24 billion metric
tons in 2001 to 37 billion metric tons in 2025-growing by 1.9 percent per year (see
Fig.2.9). According to this projection, world carbon dioxide emissions in 2025 would
exceed 1990 levels by 72 percent. (Carbon dioxide emissions are measured here in
Energy and Environment: metric tons carbon equivalent. Tons of carbon equivalents can be converted to tons o$
Current Concerns carbon dioxide gas by multiplying by 44/12.) I

Carbon dioxide emissions from energy use in the industrialised countries are
expected to increase by 4 billion metric tons, to 15.6 billion metric tons in 2025, or by
about 1.2 percent per year. Of these, emissions from the combustion of petroleum
products account for about 42 percent of the total increase expected for the
industrialised world, natural gas 33 percent, and coal 24 percent.
e
20 3 20
mndustrialised 101 h, 8 History Projections
.2
'0
5 15
e
2
2
S 10
0
.e
C1

5
."aB -
0 - -----

Fig.2.9: Energy related a) total and b) per capita carbon dioxide emissions by region from 1970 to
2025 (Source: IEO 2604)

Total emissions in developing nations are expected to increase from 9 billion metric
tons in 2001 to a total of 17 billion metric tons in 2025, representing about 61 percent
of the projected increase worldwide. In 2001, China and India together accounted for
17 percent of total world carbon dioxide emissions, as compared with the 24-percent,
share made up by U.S. emissions in the same year.

By 2025, carbon dioxide emissions in the developing world (including China and
India) are expected to surpass those in the industrialised countries, even though
developing countries are projected to use less total energy than industrialised countries
at that time (Fig. 2.9a). Carbon dioxide emissions in developing Asia alone are
projected to increase from 6 billion metric tons in 2001 to 11.8 billion metric tons in
2025. However, developing countries will continue to account for less than one-half
of global carbon dioxide emissions through the 2025 forecast horizon.
In the EEJFSU region, carbon dioxide emissions are not expected to return to their
Soviet-era levels during the projection period. The FSU appears to be in the midst of
sustained economic recovery after the political, social, and economic upheavals that
followed the break-up of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. Carbon dioxide
emissions are not expected to increase as quickly as energy use because of gains in
energy efficiency resulting from the replacement of old, inefficient capital stock, and
because in many countries in the region, natural gas is expected to displace coal,
particularly for new electricity generation capacity.
Worldwide, carbon dioxide emissions per person are projected to increase from
about 4.1 metric tons in 1990 to 4.7 metric tons in 2025. Per capita emissions in the
industrialised countries remain much higher than,&ose in the rest of the world
throughout the projection period, increasing from 11.8 to 12.9 metric tons per person
between 1990 and 2010 and then to 14.7 metric tons per person in 2025 (see Fig.
2.9b).
If we look at the carbon emissions by fuel, the combustion of petroleum products
contributes about 5.7 billion metric tons to the projected increase from 2001, coal
4 billion metric tons and natural gas about 3 billion metric tons (Fig. 2.10). Although Energy Consumption
coal use is projected to grow at a slower rate than natural gas use over the projection
period, coal is also a more carbon-intensive fuel than gas. As a result, the absolute
increase in carbon dioxide emissions from coal combustion is larger than the increase
in emissions from natural gas combustion.
The sizable rise in emissions projected for the developing nations results in part
from their continied heilvy reliance on coal, the most carbon-intensive of the
fossil fuels. Coal is used extensively in the countries of developing Asia, which
have the highest expected rates of economic growth and energy consumption
growth in the forecast. Coal use is also not expected to decline among the FSU
countries. In fact, Russia's coal use is expected to increase slowly until 2015 before it
begins to decline.
40
History ~rojections* c --cs ,

Fig.2.10: World energy related COz emissions by fuel type from 1970 to 2025

We end this section by considering the growth of electricity consumption.

Growth of Electricity Consumption
Long-term growth in electricity consumption is expected to be strongest in the
developing countries of Asia, followed by those of Central and South America. Rapid
growth in population and income, along with heavy industrialisation and more
widespread household electrification will be responsible for such an increase. The net
electricity consumption is projected to rise by 3.5 percent per year in the developing
world, compared with a projected average increase of 2.3 percent per year worldwide.
Robust economic growth in many of the developing nations is expected to boost
demand for electricity to run newly purchased home appliances for cookiilg, space and
water heating and cooling, refrigeration, air conditioning, etc.

Electricity generation is expected to nearly double between 2001 and 2025, from
13,290 billion k w h to 23,702 billion kwh. Strongest growth is projected for the
countries of the developing world. For the industrialised world and the transitional
economies of the EEIFSU, where electricity markets &e more mature, more modest
annual growth rates of 1.5 and 2.0 percent, respectively, are projected.
Natural gas is expected to be the fuel of choice for much of the new electricity
generation capacity built over the next two decades. The natural gas share of total
energy used to generate electricity is expected to increase from 18% in 2001 to 25% in
2025, at the expense of oil and nuclear power, both of which are expected to lose
market share of the world's electricity by 2025. The shares of hydroelectricity and
other renewable energy resources, as well as that of coal use for electricity generation,
are expected to remain fairly stable over the projection period. Worldwide
consumption of electricity generated from nuclear power is expected to increase from
2,52 1 billion k w h in 2001 to 2,906 billion k w h in 2025.
To a large extent, future growth in the world's electricity generation will depend upon
the progress made in connecting more of the world's population to national electricity
Energy and Environment: grids. Electricity demand and investment in the electric power sector infrastructure
Current Concerns have responded positively to the recent net improvement in the global economic
conditions, and to the movement toward privatisation in many parts of the world. So
far, many developing countries have been motivated to encourage various forms of
private investment so as to raise the capital necessary to meet the rapidly growing
demand for electricity. In the developing world alone, $142 billion in private capital
flowed into electricity projects between 1990 and 1998.

12 -
Industrialised

Fig.2.11: World Net electricity Consumption by Region, 1990-2020 (Source: IEO, 2000)

One way of looking at the future of world energy demand is to consider trends in end-
uses of energy. We take this up in the next section. But you may like to reflect on the
information presented in this section.

SAQ 4
Consider the projections in energy demand given for developing nations, and trends in
the demand for various sources of energy as well as the C02 emissions. What energy
options should a developing country like ours promote for sustainable energy use?
Support your answer with well reasoned argument and evidence.

2.5 ENERGY END USE

We shall consider four sectors for analysing energy use: residential, agricultural,
commercial, and industrial. The mix of energy use in the residential, commercial,
and industrial sectors can vary widely from country to country, depending on a
combination of factors, such as

the availability of energy resources and infrastructure,

the level of economic development including income levels, and
political and social factors.
We do not take up the transportation sector, which is almost universally dominated by
petroleum products.
Residential Sector
Energy end use in the residential sector is defined as energy consumed by
households, excluding transportation uses. The type and amount of energy used by
households varies from country to country. In general, households in developed
countries use more energy than those in transitional or developing nations. Space and
water heating and other appliances such as the refrigerators, washing machines, etc.
account for most of the energy used by households in the industrialised nations.
Higher incomes have also led to an increased demand for more and more electric Energy Consumption
appliances, such as home computers, home theatre systems, and the like. Although the
fuels used to heat both space and water vary from country to country, the recent trend
bas been toward natural gas and away from oil, coal, and biomass (wood and peat, for
example) in most industrialised countries. That trend is expected to continue in future.
'Developing World
'Energy use in the residential sector in the developing nations (China, India, Central
and South America, Africa, the Middle East, and Other Developing Asia) is projected
to increase more rapidly than in other regions over the coming decades. Population
growth and urbanisation in populous China and India are expected to produce large
increases in demand for residential energy services. Rising incomes and rural
electrification efforts are generally expected to increase the demand for electricity-
based home appliances in most of the developing countries. As you know, India's
electricity supply system is struggling to meet the demand of its customers, both in
urban and rural areas.
In most developing countries, energy use for space heating is much less important due
to climate as well as scarcity of energy. In the poorest areas of our country, for
instance, available wood, wood waste, cattle dung.and other solid wastes are used for
cooking, and other purposes. However, as you know, the traditional sources of wood
are becoming scarcer and alternatives need to be thought of.
Commercial SectoI'
The commercial sector or the services sector consisting of businesses, institutions, and
organisations that provide services encompasses many different types of buildings and
a wide range of activities and energy-related services. Examples are schools, markets,
stores, parks, restaurants, hotels, hospitals, museums, office buildings, banks,
stadiums, cinema halls, etc. Energy is used for lighting, cooking, space heating, water
heating, cooling, etc. Energy consumed for public places and services such as traffic
lights and city water and sewer services, is also categorised as commercial sector
energy use.
Economic and population growth trends drive commercial sector activity and the
resulting energy use. Higher levels of economic activity and disposable income lead to
increased demand for hotels and restaurants to meet business and leisure
requirements; for office and retail space to house and service new and expapding
businesses; and for cultural and leisure space such as theatres, galleries, cinema
complexes, etc.
The rate of increase in the developed region's commercial energy demand is also
expected to slow as its population growth continues slowing. In addition, as energy-
using equipment is replaced with newer, more efficient products, energy demand
growth is likely to decrease. Of course, strong commercial growth in developed
countries is expected to increase energy use in areas such as retail and wholesale trade
and business, financial, and leisure services. Electricity demand growth in
industrialised countries is becoming more dependent on advances in technology and
the introduction of new electronic appliances and equipment.
~ e ' v e l o ~World
in~
The commercial sector typically represents a smaller share of energy consumption in
developing countries than in developed countries. However, economic growth and
commerce are expected to increase rapidly in the developing nations, making
additional energy demand in the services sector. Faster population growth is also
expected in the developing world than in the other regions, increasing the need for
education, health care, and social services and the energy required to provide them.
Thus, commercial electricity demand is expected to grow rapidly in developing
countries as more clinics, schools, and businesses gain,access to electricity.. The
37
Energy and Environment: projected increase in commercial electricity demand is compounded in nations with
Current Concerns quickly growing economies, such as China and India, as they continue to shift away
from heavy manufacturing toward services.
Industrial Sector
5
Energy is consumed in the industrial sector by a diverse group of industries-
including manufacturing, mining, and construction-and for a wide range of
activities, such as process and assembly uses, space conditioning, and lighting.
Overall energy demand in the industrial sector varies across regions and countries of
the world, based on the level and mix of economic activity, technological
development, and population, among other factprs. Industrialised countries accounted
for one-half of all energy consumption in the industrial sector worldwide in 2001, and
the United States accounted for one-half of the total in the industrialised countries. On
the other hand, the industrialised countries have lower energy intensity, i.e., they use
much less energy per dollar of GDP than do countries in the developing regions.
On a per capita basis, delivered energy consumption in the industrial sector is higher
in the industrialised countries than in the developing countries.
,
Developing World
Industrial energy consumption in the developing countriei was nearly 40 percent of
the worldwide industrial secto~totalin 2001, and their share is projected to increase to
almost one-half of all industrial sector energy consumption by 2025 as a result of the
more rapid economic growth expected in the region. The ratio of industrial sector
energy consumption to GDP is projected to decline at approximately the same rate as
in the industrialised countries. China leads the developing countries in terms of both
economic growth and industrial energy consumption. Two energy-intensive
industries, iron and steel and chemicals, are projected to.increase capacity, both to
meet domestic needs and to supply internati~~lal markets. As the standard of living in
China rises, however, less energy-intensive light industries are projected to increase
output even faster, in order to meet growing demand for consumer products.
Agriculture Sector
Agriculture is the backbone of South Asian economy. It is dependent to a very large
extent on the water pumping. Pumps are used widely for drawing water from the
wells. These pumps are often driven either by electrical motors or by diesel engines.
Energy is used not only for water pumping in this key sector, but also for running
tractors, and several other agriculture tools and implements. In addition, energy is
used in manufacturing and fertilisers pesticides.
You have learnt in this unit that the energy consumption by fuel and by region will
increase in all sectors of economy. This will affect the environment adversely unless
e the consumption patterns undergo a drastic change in the industrialised as well as
developing countries. Some of the damages could be offset by using appropriate and
improved energy production technologies. The key concern is to conserve energy as
far as possible. "Energy.saved is energy produced" is no longer a fancy slogan, but a
meaningful message receiving enough attention now a days in the key. sectors of
cement, iron and steel industries. India is poised to popularise all possible means of
saving energy under its massive energy conservation programme. We now summarise
the contents of this unit.

2.6 SUMMARY
The unit of energy is erg or joule. Power ir defined as the rate of energy
consumed and its unit is watt. Specific energy generating or consuming devices
are given a power rating (or sated capacity) in watts and multiples of watts.
38
 i The amount of energy converted is defined by the power of the device multiplied
1 by the time for which it is used (i.e. watts x seconds). It is usually measured in
'
kilowatt-hours or (kwh). 1 k w h = 3,600,000joules.
Consumption of energy is growing in Asia faster than any other region of the
world. China, Japan and India are the major consumers of energy in Asia. Both
China and India have a pattern of energy consumption in which coal is the
primary source of energy.

Total world carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption of petroleum, natural
gas, and coal, and the flaring of natural gas are increasing. The world's use of
energy will continue its rapid growth in the foreseeable future, particularly in the
developing nations. The demand for energy in the world has experienced a sudden
increase in the developing regions, particularly in Asia.
Long-term growth in electricity consumption is expected to be strongest in the
developing countries of Asia, followed by those of Central and South America.
Natural gas is projected to be the fastest-growing component of primary world
energy consumption. Currently oil provides a larger share of world energy
consumption than any other energy source and is expected to remain in that
position throughout the forecast period. Electricity consumption worldwide will
increase in all sectors of economy, viz. residential, commercial and industrial.
Future growth in the world's electricity generation will depend upon the progress
made in connecting more of the world's population to national electricity grids.

2.7 TERMINAL QUESTIONS

1. Rank the countries for which data is given in this unit from highest to the lowest
in terms of the production and consumption of energy, respectively.
2. Describe the trends of energy consumption in Asia. Describe the end uses of
energy in India in residential, commercial and industrial sectors. -
3. Highlight a few measures that can be used to save energy in the residential,
commercial and industrial sectors in India.
4. Analyse the current world energy demand by fuel type and by region type. What
conclusions can you draw about the current consumption patterns?
5. Give abrief description of the future projection of world energy demand as per
IE02004.