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Climate change, slow onset events and human mobility:

reviewing the evidence
Caroline Zickgraf

This article synthesizes recent empirical literature on human (such as coastal erosion or drought).
mobility linked to slow-onset impacts of climate change. Through a
review of the CLIMIG database from 2015 to 2020, it assesses the In 2009, Lazcko and Azargham noted an imbalance in
state of knowledge on human mobility related to slow onset events knowledge on climate change and human mobility, call
by distilling peer-reviewed articles across world regions, with ing for a greater focus on slow-onset changes. Still today,
particular attention given to developing country contexts. On top of rapid-onset events capture the majority of public atten
providing an anatomy of the field including a geography of current tion, accompanied by staggering figures: in 2019 alone,
studies, the methods employed, and the types of migration nearly 25 million people were forced to flee floods,
addressed, it explores findings as they converge and diverge
storms and other natural catastrophes [3].1 While
across the sample relating migration as an adaptation strategy. It
incredibly powerful, such figures do not account for
demonstrates the importance of context and the difficulty of
slower, more gradual changes, which may, in fact, have a
presenting a singular narrative or global conclusions regarding the
much greater impact on the movement of people but
impact of slow onset events on human mobility dynamics, before
submitting recommendations for future research.
receive less attention [2,4,5].

Following previousstudies that have reviewed the field of

Address
The Hugo Observatory: Environment, Migration, Politics, Department of climate and migration at large up to 2016 [6 ], in specific
Geography, Faculty of Sciences, University of Lie` ge, Belgium regions [7,8], or the use of certain concepts [9], the
present article reviews recent empirical literature on slow
Corresponding author: Zickgraf, Caroline ([email protected]) onset events and human mobility. Assessing the
evidence since 2015 to reflect the most recent findings, it
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 2021, 50:21–30
provides a brief anatomy of the field in terms of current
research geographies, methodological approaches,
This review comes from a themed issue on Slow onset events related to temporal and spatial patterns of movement, and the
climate change
character of those movements. The following section
Edited by Susana Adamo, Riyanti Djalante, Prabodh GD Chakrabarti, describes the meth odological approach of the study,
Fabrice G Renaud, Amsalu Woldie Yalew, Doreen Stabinsky, Zinta
Zommers and Koko Warner
before presenting trends found across 101 empirical
studies. Subsequently, it high lights spatio-temporal
For a complete overview see the Issue and the Editorial
mobility dynamics, using diverse but salient examples of
Available online 6th January 2021 consensus and debate in the field. Finally, it explores the
Received: 07 June 2020; Accepted: 22 November 2020 migration-as-adaptation discourse, its evidential strengths
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2020.11.007
and weaknesses. Based on the findings, it concludes by
identifying critical gaps and directions for future research.
1877-3435/ã 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methods
The study relies on a rapid review assessment.
Systematic reviews are a useful tool to synthesize
evidence, but they are time consuming owing to the high
level of methodo logical rigor, human resources and skill
required [10,11]. Rapid reviews present a viable
Introduction alternative, streamlining traditional systematic review
The mounting scholarship on the impact of climate methods and have been successfully deployed in
change on human mobility shows a relationship that is migration studies [8,12]. The evidentiary base comes
complex and contextual: a constellation of factors and from the CLIMIG portal,2 a comprehensive bibliographic
local features affect the mobility decision, its trajectory, database specifically dedi cated to compiling peer-
and its consequences, as does the hazard itself [1,2]. reviewed scientific publications connecting migration,
The type of hazard and the speed with which it occurs environment, and climate change.
shape human mobility responses in terms of agency,
temporal ity, and space. Typically, hazards are divided
into two broad categories according to the speed with 1
It should be noted that IDMC has begun including some drought
which they occur: sudden or rapid onset events (such as displacement statistics in their annual GRID report.
floods or 2
https://climig.com/.
storms) and more gradual changes or slow onset events
 www.sciencedirect.com Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 2021, 50:21–30
22 Slow onset events related to climate change should understand how data is being generated and ana
lysed. First, I discern between quantitative studies, qual
itative studies, and mixed method studies. If we consider
that publications may use more than one type of method,
74 papers used quantitative methods, compared to 46
Helmed by the University of Neuchaˆtel, it systematically
tracks new publications in scientific journals, books, and papers using qualitative methods.8Answering the need
reports according to a set of strict guidelines (see Ref. [6 ] for more mixed-methods approaches, 24 studies used
for a detailed description of the scope of the database as both quantitative and qualitative methods, or nearly 24%
[13].
well as search and maintenance methods). 3 The
database now holds some 1412 publications 4 related to The initial coding of methods by quantitative and quali
environ mental change and human mobility. tative types and specific methods (e.g. interviews, sur
veys) was then cross-referenced and broken down
The methodological process started by asking, ‘How do accord ing to the keywords of the CLIMIG database. 9
slow onset events affect human mobility?’ CLIMIG tags CLIMIG follows a six-part typology of methods, presented
articles using six hazard keywords that include two broad in Table 1 [14].
categories ofslow onset events: Sea Level Rise (SLR)
and Drought. However, this study expands slow-onset
types to include all those identified by the UN Framework Using the CLIMIG codes for methodological types, in
Figure 2,10 the most frequently used methods were
Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC).5 Accord
qualitative case studies, small scale questionnaires, and
ingly, I combed CLIMIG using my own larger series of large-scale surveys. Surveys are nearly equal to
truncated keywords6 related to slow onset events such as qualitative case studies, reflecting a growing trend
sea level rise, drought and desertification, biodiversity compared to previous research [6 ,14].
loss, glacial retreat, land and forest degradation, and
climate variability. Results were then filtered to only
include English-language publications and to include
publications since 2015. I excluded studies not of an Geography of case studies
empirical nature (e.g. literature reviews and conceptual According to recent literature, where are slow onset
pieces). Only peer-reviewed journal articles were kept for events most affecting human mobility? To be clear, it is
feasibility and were checked for quality, although CLI MIG not possible to determine if more migration or displace
follows IPCC guidelines. After the screening pro cess, ment is occurring in one continent or country than in
101 empirical case study articles were identified and others. It is only able to show where these links are
analyzed related to slow onset events and human currently being studied. Reflective of the trends in gen
mobility between 2015 and 2020 (see Figure 1).7 Each eral and before 2015 [6 ], empirical studies have over
entry’s abstract, keywords, and main text were then whelmingly been conducted in developing countries in
individually reviewed. I manually coded entries regarding the Global South (n = 83), or 82% of the sample. Studies
hazard type (s), methods, study area, type of migration on international migration from countries in the Global
(temporal, geographical, geopolitical), key concepts, and South to countries in the Global North are a distant
findings (see appendix for a summary table). second (n = 11), followed by those focused exclusively on
the Global North (n = 4), and lastly macro studies that
examined global datasets without regard for a specific
Anatomy of the field country of origin or destination (n = 3). The geographical
Methods deployed representation overwhelmingly favors Asia, with 56 stud
In order to have a better picture of recent scholarship on ies (Figure 3).11 The number one sub-region was South
slow onset events as they relate to human mobility, one
8
Piguet et al. [6] reviewed all case studies in the Climig database until
3
Its robustness, confirmed by tests made in comparison with searches the end of 2016 and found that 32% of their sample included qualitative
on SCOPUS and the ISI Web of Science, and focus on the nexus of methods.
9
climate change and migration makes it an ideal database to examine the However, in the process of analysis, we noted 19 entries deemed
most recent evolutions in the field [6 ,7]. empirical studies by the author that were not assigned Type keywords in
4
As of March 2020. CLIMIG. These were doublechecked, and assigned a code according to
5 the six-part typology or removed. For these studies and the studies for
https://unfccc.int/process/bodies/constituted-bodies/executive which Types assigned by author and Types assigned by CLIMIG
committee-of-the-warsaw-international-mechanism-for-loss-and differed, the author discussed with the developers of the database.
damage-wim-excom/areas-of-work/slow-onset-events. 10
6 Ten studies were assigned multiple Types in the CLIMIG database by
The CLIMIG database codes for two broad categories of slow-onset:
its developers or by the author. Our methodological keywords included
Sea Level Rise (SLR) and Drought. Each of these codes encompasses more mixed methods studies owing to our consideration of small-scale
an array of hazards, for example, coastal erosion, salinisation and surveys and interviews as different methods, for example.
rainfall within SLR and temperature, desertification and heat waves 11
As several studies included multiple origin points, either in multi case
within drought. I additionally searched CLIMIG for other related hazard
and impact types associated with slow onset events including biodiver or comparative studies, case study location figures are greater than the
sity loss (biodiv*), glacial retreat (glaci*), erosion (erosi*), land and forest number of articles.
degradation (degrad*, deforest*), salinisation (salin*), and climate vari
ability (variabil*), rainfall (rainfall, precipit*), temperature*, permafrost
thaw (permaf*), ocean acidification (acidi*).
7
Endnote, Zotero, and spreadsheet software were used for compila
tion and analysis.

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Climate change, slow onset events, and human mobility: reviewing the evidence Zickgraf 23
 Figure 1

Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability

Number of empirical case studies by year, 2015–2020.

Source: Author’s elaboration.

Table 1 Thisstudy concentrates on slow onset events, but without

Method keywords in CLIMIG database dismissing their collision with rapid onset events in multi
risk scenarios (e.g. SLR and cyclones in Bangladesh),
Type 1 Ecological models based on area characteristics (spatial and the impacts of slow onset events (e.g. coastal
analysis)
Type 2 Multilevel analysis based on area and individual
flooding caused by sea-level rise). To this end, I included
characteristics those studies that captured both slow and sudden
Type 3 Analysis of individual data based on large sample changes.
surveys (>100)
Type 4 Historical analogues
Type 5 Indexes of vulnerability, hotspots identification, scenarios,
In Figure 4, hazards are grouped into six types 14 climate
regional case studies, and so on. variability (including variations in temperature and rain
Type 6 Qualitative field case studies using ethnographic methods fall), drought and desertification, sea level rise (including
and small sample questionnaires coastal erosion and soil salinization), riverbank erosion,
biodiversity loss, and permafrost thaw.15

Asia (n = 32). Top countries of empirical research were The most referenced type of hazard was climate variabil
Bangladesh (n = 17), followed by India (9). ity, followed by drought and desertification, and sea level
rise. Climate variability studies tend to examine spatio
In the second position, 28 empirical case studies were temporal variability in temperature and precipitation
published on African countries since 2015. 12 North Amer
ican studies followed (n = 11), then South and Central 14
Figure 4 includes all slow-onset hazards found in the sample, but
America (n = 6).13 However, as only English language owing to the relationships between events and multiple hazards faced by
studies were included, a wider linguistic scope could to the same population, the total number of hazards exceeds the total
some extent alter this distribution. number reviewed. For example, 27 publications covered both climate
variability and drought.
15
The UNFCCC designates 8 categories of slow onset hazards: sea
12 level rise, increasing temperatures, ocean acidification, glacial retreat,
For more information, see the systematic review of environmental salinization, land and forest degradation, loss of biodiversity and desert
migration studies in Africa up to May 2017 conducted by Borderon et al. ification. However, the present analysis departs from these types
[7]. because these categories did not easily map onto the CLIMIG database
13
Australia only appeared as a destination site and (n = 1) and, there nor the content of empirical research. Glacial retreat and ocean acidifi
fore, does not appear in the continental breakdown cation yielded no results for the time period
Hazard type

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24 Slow onset events related to climate change

Figure 2
 Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability

Case studies by CLIMIG Method Type.

Figure 3

Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability

Breakdown of empirical case studies by continent.

using national or sub-national datasets with monthly, gradual in its onset, this hazard often forces populations
yearly or multi-year intervals [15,16]. An alternative strat to relocate their homes away from danger or move perma
egy is to use local perceptions of climate variability when nently elsewhere [19]. Despite the importance of biodi
appropriate data is lacking at the community level [17] or versity loss for fishing communities, only three studies
to examine mobility decisions based on what the popula explicitly connected it to human mobility. However, owing
tion perceives to be happening rather than externally to different indicators and local contexts, these categories
observed data, which may not align [18 ]. Riverbank are not mutually exclusive. For instance, Panda [17]
erosion also had a lesser, but still relatively strong pres examined climate variability in combination with drought
ence in the sample. Even though riverbank erosion is at the community level.

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Climate change, slow onset events, and human mobility: reviewing the evidence Zickgraf 25

Figure 4
 Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability

Empirical case studies by hazard type.

Combining geography with hazard, over 70% of case Mobility in space

studies on sea level rise were conducted in or about It is often said that environmental migration largely takes
Asian-Pacific countries, with Bangladesh (n = 9) and Fiji place within national boundaries [24]. Our findings con
(n = 5) dominating. Drought was most studied in African firm that for slow onset events: of the 89 studies that
countries (n = 20).16 The combination of drought, desert referred to one or more destinations, 64% studies
ification, and climate variability impacts the livelihoods of referred only to internal migration, 19% looked at
millions on a continent where the majority of the popu international movements, and 17% referred to both
lation relies on agriculture. While these figures reflect international and internal migration (see Figure 5).
major impacts of slow onset events geographically, they
also point to potential blind spots. Despite the fragility of Most case studies look at rural sending points, reflecting
African highly populated coastal cities such as Lagos and the vulnerability of rural, natural resource-dependent
Dakar as well as agricultural production such as rice livelihoods, but a smaller body did address the impor
paddies and fisheries located on coastal plains, the tance of urban mobility [25–27]. Rural-to-urban migration
impact of sea level rise on human mobility was only is the most commonly studied pattern, but rural-to-rural
studied in three African cases: Ghana [20], Nigeria [21] migration also occurs. In northern Latin America and the
and Senegal [22]. Caribbean, Baez et al. [28] linked individual-level infor
mation from censuses for eight countries with natural
disaster indicators to measure the impact of droughts and
Migration patterns and dynamics hurricanes on internal mobility. In doing so, it found that
To date, research tends focus on causality of mobility when confronted with drought, younger individuals
decision-making, and – to a lesser extent – the conse favored traveling short distances by relocating to nearby
quences of that decision [23 ]. Few studies specifically rural and small towns, motivated possibly by nearby off
seek to understand, rather than reference in passing, the farm employment opportunities and lower moving costs.
spatio-temporal features of mobility as a response to Makondo and Thomas [29] also found that drought and
environmental change. For this reason, I expanded upon land degradation led to rural-to-rural migration away from
the categories within the CLIMIG database and ana lyzed southern Zambia.
in previous studies [6 ] by coding for migration trajectory
(origin, destination) and duration (temporary, permanent). Studies on international migration revealed differing
findings, underlining the importance of context and
methodology. For example, Wesselbaum [30 ] examines
16
migration flows from 198 countries to Australia showing
This supports the findings Piguet et al. [6 ], who found that up to 2016, that temperature does not have a robust, significant effect
62% of drought case studies were performed in Africa
on migration flows, while weather-related disasters do

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26 Slow onset events related to climate change

Figure 5
 Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability

Type of migration studied, Internal versus International.

significantly affect flows to Australia. In Bangladesh, migration [38], research on a continuum of movement
Chen and Mueller [31] found that migration to neighbor within the same populations is rare and presents an
ing countries declines with short-term, adverse weather opportunity for future research and a valuable insight for
but increases with soil salinity. policy [39].

Several reasons could explain why people move within Mobility in time
national boundaries in response to slow onset events: Are slow onset events driving more permanent forms of
firstly, migration takes resources that are not available to migration than temporary? Slow onset events can make
all (and which climate change may erode), and inter lands uninhabitable and irreversibly so, when coastal
national migration typically requires greater capital, finan erosion and sea level rise ‘swallow’ coastal lands and
cial, human, social, and political [32]. Secondly, place small islands, for instance. The issue of temporality is an
attachment may keep people from aspiring to move to important one because — like spatial dimensions — it
other countries (or moving at all) [33]. Thirdly, whereas influences policy responses, and is also shaped by them.
‘mainstream’ migration studies by and large look at Unfortunately, most studies did not explicitly address
international flows and neglect internal mobility [34], the discuss the duration of migration, whether it was tempo
prevalence of work on internal movements may be rary (including seasonal), or permanent – a persistent
similarly influenced by research bias. Especially when gap in scholarship. Of those that did (n = 37), 22 noted
longitudinal data is missing, it is possible that studies only per manent migration, the majority of which analysed
capture a piece of a longer migration journey, whereby an planned relocation (n = 14), largely in Asian countries and
internal move may be just one of a series of ‘stepping small-island states [40–42]. Planned relocation has the
stones’ along a stepwise, fragmented journey [35–37]. potential to facilitate migration in a way that main tains
While some studies noted internal and international community and social structures, but relocation is

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Climate change, slow onset events, and human mobility: reviewing the evidence Zickgraf 27

not always successful, especially when decision-making household eventually relocate to join the migrant? Lon
processes are not inclusive or transparent and long-term gitudinal studies are few and far between, not just in the
monitoring and evaluation is not undertaken. Compara present sample, but reflecting a shortcoming in the field
tive studies, while few and far between at present, would environmental migration [13]. One must also question
shed more light on this form of human mobility beyond a how the field is categorizing both temporal and spatial
specific local context and help inform future programmes dynamics, and what we may be missing as a result. As
and policies [21]. noted by Safra de Campos et al. [23 ] in their study of
subsistence households in semi-arid Northeast Brazil, the
Migration in response to slow onset events is not always, category of temporary migration, typically thought of to be
however, permanent. Fifteen studies observed temporary seasonal or circular, may not be sufficient to capture
migration and seven studies observed both temporary daily, weekly, or occasional local mobility responses.
and permanent migration flows. The duration of migration Likewise, commuting practices or short-distance moves
in response to drought, for example, differed depending within communities do not easily fall under the heading of
on the study site. Several studies found that migration ‘migration’. One promising direction is to use mobi lities
was seasonal, temporary, or circular: in their survey, approaches to unpack and illuminate more nuanced,
Antwi Agyei et al. [43] noted temporary labor migration to everyday forms of mobility that escape traditional migra
the south of Ghana during the farming off-season; tion lenses [46 ].
whereas Makondo and Thomas [29] noted migration was
largely permanent in rural Zambia. Temporal patterns Migration as adaptation
differ even within countries, dependent on local contexts Slow onset events can force people to leave, especially
and infrastructure. In a study of two villages in India when their homelands become uninhabitable. One of the
facing recurrent drought, Kattumuri et al. [44] found that critical impacts of slow onset events evident in the
in Gundlapalli, where farmers had greater access to irriga literature is the disruption of local livelihoods, particularly
tion, migration was less frequent and less permanent for those people dependent on natural resources. 17
than in Saddapalli. Publications dealing with rising sea
These events may also decrease ecosystem services
levels also observed temporary migration. In Bangladeshi and over whelm populations’ capacity to withstand both
coastal districts, Shamimul et al. [45] found that 88% of slow and rapid-onset events, reaching critical social
respondents engaged in temporary migration, underscor tipping points at which the socio-ecological capacity to
ing the fact that not all movement related to SLR is cope in situ is exceeded, leading to displacement [47].
permanent. Nonetheless, the vast majority of studies labeled mobility
responses under the heading of migration rather than
Yet, the vast majority of all empirical studies left the displacement (n = 12).
question of temporality unanswered. In part, this may be
due to the uncertainty of when migration ‘ends’. Will Slow onset events are often perceived to contribute to
migrant household members return? Or will the entire more preemptive and proactive forms of migration
 because they provide more time for planning and prepar helps shelter the household from the adverse impacts of
ing for movement, whereas sudden-onset events are climate change and contributes to increased resilience
seen to cause involuntary and reactive displacement and/or adaptive capacity. In such scenarios, it may be
leaving no time for careful decision-making or space for those households without a migrant, whether they are
agency [48,49 ,50]. While recognizing the adverse unable or unwilling, who bear the greatest risks [1,32].
conditions leading to migration, more than 30% of studies
described migration as an adaptation strategy. Socio- Although recent findings support the migration-as-adap
economic dif ferences can play a significant role in tation discourse, that is not to say that the adaptation
determining who goes and who stays. In some cases, it strategy always works. In rural areas of northern Ghana,
may be those who stay who are less reliant on natural seasonal migration also delivered maladaptive outcomes.
resources or whose homes are less exposed; in others, When migrants failed to return home in time for the start
people and households with more capital may be better of the farming season, it left the community of origin with
placed to employ migra tion as an adaptation strategy [49 a labor shortage that ultimately, local food security [43].
,51]. Additionally, the household-level of analysis common in
the literature may be obscuring critical power dynamics
Many of the empirical studies investigated migration as and inequalities within the household, such as gendered
one amongst a host of potential adaptation options for divisions of labor. NELM has been long criticized in
rural, agricultural households. Heavily influenced by New
Economics of Labor Migration (NELM) theory, migra tion 17 Agriculture, including farming, fishing, forestry, is by and large the
is seen as a collective household choice, by which one most addressed economic sector and livelihood linking slow onset
family member moves, providing an insurance strategy events to human mobility (n = 36). Only four articles specifically exam
ined the impacts on pastoralists (in Ethiopia, Kenya, Ghana and
and means of diversifying livelihoods [52]. This, in turn, Mongolia). Fishing also received relatively little explicit focus compared
to farming and farm-based livelihoods.

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28 Slow onset events related to climate change NORFACE Joint Research Programme on Transforma
tions to Sustainability, which is co-funded by AKA, ANR,
BMBF/DLR, FAPESP, FNRS, FWO, ISC, JST, NSF,
NWO, RCN, VR, UKRI and the European Commission
through Horizon 2020 under grant agreement No 730211.
migration studies for its vision of the household as a
harmonious, collective decision-making unit, a criticism
Conflict of interest statement
that can also be levied in environmental migration [53 ].
Nothing declared.
How migration can be adaptive for some, but not for
others, is mostly neglected in the wealth of studies
focused on households. In a rare exception, Eastin [54] Acknowledgements
I would like to thank Loı¨c Bru¨ning of the University of Neuchaˆtel for his
found that male out-migration increased familial burdens gracious assistance with the CLIMIG database and the anonymous reviewers
for women in developing countries, and that in addition to who provided helpful comments on earlier drafts of the manuscript.
other inequalities, it diminished women’s ability to achieve
economic independence, and enhance their human and Appendix A. Supplementary data
social capital relative to men. The lack of gendered and Supplementary material related to this article can be
intersectional approaches in recent research remains a found, in the online version, at doi:https://doi.org/10.
critical gap in the migration-as-adap tation discourse, and 1016/j.cosust.2020.11.007.
in the field more widely.
References and recommended reading Papers of
Conclusions particular interest, published within the period of review, have been
highlighted as
The breadth of recent studies linking slow onset events
and human mobility is difficult to succinctly summarize, of special interest
owing to the wide range of hazards, their impacts, their
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