Larry Williams Accumulation Distribution
Larry Williams Accumulation Distribution
Larry Williams Accumulation Distribution
Larry Williams, one of the first to popularize the commodities markets back in the 1960s,
Lury
wrote f‹rir I 3fsdc o 3fiffita Dollars Trading Co»imoditui (one of the best selling com-
modity books ever). He also penned the first bmk to analyze the scasonality of commodi-
ties: Surr Thinly C»mmo4ii:y Trading. Other commodity/markct books by Larry includc
Wi£iams
Influcncc Wmmodity Pri‹:cs, and Tbr Dzfinitivc Guidr to Gommodi9 Trading {Volumes
One and Turn). Larry also wrote the immensely popular and accumtc flow rr Z'roprr in r£r
Co nice G»d i cerr, whti came out in 1982 and made the bestseller list. This book cor-
rectly forecast the largest surge of cconomic growth America has ever seen when the
majority of pundits predicted cxnctly the opposite of Larry’s forecast.
In 1987 Larry astounded the commodity world by parlaying $10,000 into over Sl
million in the twelve month "Robins World Cup Trading Championship."
Larry has served on the board of the National Futures Association representing fellow
Commodity Trading Advisors. As one of the most widdy quoted and followed advisors
over the past twenty-five years, Larry has appeared on television (FNN, Atm Griffin,
PBS, her Nig£r), spoken at leading commodity and economic conferences around the
world, and had articles written about him appear in Barron’s, Thc Wall Strcct f’ourosJ,
t rrbe , font and N ›u. Every month Larry publishes two popular newsletters:
Com riodi;y Timing ansd Trc iurc Hun ter Confident:UL
• Topic: How to Detect Professional Accumulation oncl Distribution in Stocks
ondCommod
Larry will begin his workshop by presenting an entirely new way of monitoring and
actually using the positions of Commcrcials, thc largest traders in the markec place, to
help idcntify markets poised for intermediate to long term moves. He will provide you
with a long term historical review of Commercial buying and selling so that you can get a
feel for the real power of this group. Since Commercials tend to buy and sell early, Larry
will demonsmtc an important “trigger” mechanism to use for actual cnizy and exit for
both long and short positions.
Larry will then reveal his own proprietary techniques for detecting professional buying
and selling from daily charts of any stock or commodity in any freely traded marker You
will sec actual examples from his personal records as well as a variety of current markets
using cmmplcs from Omega’s Trade Station. You will learn to recognize the right times
to buy and sell. You will understand why markets top and bottom out, when they do so
and who causes the turn. This in turn becomes an invaluable guide to determining when
any market cycle, short, intermediate or long term, nears its end.
Finally, Larry will show you several trading systems and pancrns that he personally
uses for trading equities and fixed income items.
Copyright L. WILLIAMS 1995. All Rights Reserved.
875
LARRY WILLIAMS
There are two main components of commodity trading. Namely, what to buy or set( and
when Here are some of my solutions to these ongoing problems.
TRADE SELECTION
There are several highly valuable tools which aid in selecting which markets to be long or
short. Among them are: seasonal tendencies, premiums or spread relationships, comparative
strength, and price patterns or formations.
More importantly though, I think, are the actions of the largest participants in the markets,
the Commercials. They have the most money, am closest to the market. and have a long term
track record of usually being successful.
Equally important and helpful is the role of the Public. These traders usually loose
money, have no clue as to what they are doing. and react quite emotionally to price swings. They
They have an excellent record of being wrong at the extremes, and correct in mid-stream.
What I like to see develop in a market is a condition where the Commercials arc heavily
long a while the Public wildly bearish, or the Commercials short while the Public outlandishly
bullish. For sake of definition, I demand, for a buy. the Commercials be net long, and the Pubiic
sentiment showing a bullish reading of 35% or less. For a sell, I want the Commercials net short,
and the public showing 65% or more bullisliness.
This is a powerful condition, especially when coupled with seasonals and the like. See
charts 1-3.
There are three dominant cycles to all markets. They can been seen in range expansion
and contraction, close to high/low relationshipx, and finally open/close relationships.
876
perio s, an owing arge
wai ranges.
The close shows the cycle. By this I mean that the nearer the close is to the low of the
day, the sooner a market bottom is at hand. The closer the close is to the high of a day,-or two,
the nearer we are to a top. The adage I like to use is “the end is your rriend.”
Finally, large range days (weeks, months, etc.) most often close right at their extreme
high or low. Thus our “target” is one of time ... the end of the time frame we trade.
TRADING PATTERNS
OOPS! An excellent entry technique or trading tool. The requirement is that prices must
open below yesterday’s low. IF PRICE THEN RALLIES BACK TO YE5TERDAY’S LOW, I
will buy at that price on a stop.
A sell is just the opposite. Price must open above the previous high, then decline to that
high, where I will sell.
GAPS! Following a large gap. say 150 points in the S&P, I will bracket the open with a
buy stop above the open and sell below. Whichever way price breaks out of this open “box,” I
will go long/short. Gaps are explosive. They almost always represent an immediate continuation
of a move or an exhaustive failure.
rally or decline on. Stocks usually rally on Mondays. or at least t at is a goo uy point. itto
Wednesdays, and sell off on Fridays. Bonds are usually down on Mondays, up on Tuesdays.
Bellies usually rally on Thursdays. The point is, you should know the day of week bias to the
markets you trade. It’s one more parr.miner to help you make the right decision.
CHANNEL BREAKS! The oldest and most successful trading tool has been to buy
what is called a channel breakout. That's buying at the highest high of the last X days, or selling
at the lowest low of the last X days. Long term traders have made fortunes with this technique.
Keep in mind, Richard Dennis made about $200,000,000 with this simple trading idea.
I use Channel Breaks as follows. 1. I await a market ready for a buy/sell based on my
selection criteria above. 2. THEN, assuming I’m in a down trend waiting for a buy, I will see
what the highest daily high has beeti that has not been taken out on the short term rallies. If, as
an example. in the down move no rally was able to take out the highest high of the last 9 days I
would then use a 9 day channel as my break out buy signal. Reverse this for a sell.
CONTRACT EXPIRATION! The S&P 500 usually decline after option expiration as
well as after contract expiration. About two weeks after contract expiration they start to rally.
Soy Beans usually decline from around the time of first notice day, and rally on or shortly after
last trade day. Again, get to know your markets.
By doing this you deVelop a measure of the buying and selling going on in the market. I
look for divergence between price and the A/D. If price is up and not matched by A/D, a sell is
coming. If price breaks to a new low and A/D does not, then a buy is coming. NOTE: this can
be used as a selection tool as well as a timing tool.
SWISS FRANC - WEEKLY.
CHAR7 #a
4
koewage ( c1oae-true1ow,oaca )/eve aga ( trueh1gl'i-
truelow,Vara)*100:
If today’s close is lower than yesterday’s close, yet today’s c!ose is higher than today’s
open, we should buy the S&P 500 tomorrow (unless tomorrow is a Friday) at the value of
today’s high. Over six yeá rs of trading; this generated $35,700.
This same system works well in the Bonds, as long as you do not buy on a Thursday. The
reason this is so powerful is because it relates to the all-important close/open relationship.
What matters in the market is where price closes in relationship to the open. The $25,806
in profits was accumulated between 9/29/72 and 5/30/94.
6wdBB5xgB't°Tféá
t 7eat fi t o£ 1 sP•ca h•* t^ tO49 e *1e91^r
gnyaoooognooogaooooooooDogogooooogooooaooooDooooDDooDDDDDooDoDDoooooODoooDoODoo€
• z’ota1 net proC1C 525. 806.25
• Groae pro£1t 954. 556.25 Groas 1o•• 6- 2® .75 . 00
• 7o€a1 # or traa•s 117 z'erc•nt p•o8t*eb1• 8*8 '
• Nwmbec wlnn1ng Credes 102 Number 1o•1nO tr•de• 15 *
t bargeet vtnnlng trede 93.575.00 T argest 1ostn9 tr• e 9-3.112.50
: xvceage ocnnlng traiga s53d. e7 cwerage 1oslng trade 8-1, 916.67
g220.57
t Rat:io arg w1n/awg 1oas 0.28 k•q 'crade f w1n G 1oaa )
• f4aa consemzt:ive wlnnera 9 Hax eonsem the 1ose8• 1 •
• hug liz baus 1n w1nnexa 2 ksg 8 bere In 1oB¥r• 5
7
y scP IuOGx O6/93 - All tr•aes ----nn ' - :
• 'pet y 1 oč 1 Opace hal to togg1e dLagLay :
oo oooeoooeoe»goooo o oo oooooaooaooooooooDDoDODDDDoDODODODDooODODbODD0oODDO6
t 3'ota1 net peo£tt 531. 925. OO !
• ccoea pro€lt 534, 475.00 croe¥ 1os^
• t,aygegC w1nn:tng tgadg 54. 40O.OO bexges€ 1ofilng trzede fi-2, SSO . OO
• n t1o egg wjnyavg 1oaa O. 40 Avg trade (m1n G 1oaa) 5911.14
The reverse, %R > 80 with a close greater than the previous high, sets up a nice sell
signal at the low of the up close day. This made $10,200 selling the S&P on just Fridays.
06/93 - Short tuadas :
8 Test: #
• 7Ot61 0Q'b @zo£1t
4 of 5
S1O. 200.00
Specs her to tog 1•
I
• G¥'OUfi @ 'O€1€ 918,000.00 GrO•o 1O•• 9-7.800.OO •
: Note1 fi o£ trades 19 Peroemt pcof1'bah1e 84q I
I Kuabar -£nn1ng tredee 16 number 1oc1ng tradee 3 I
t barpaat winning trade ss.o7s.oo ¢argeat loe4ng tcade 8-2.7OO.00 t
° k•erap• w1nnlng teade g1, E25.00 kverage 1oalng tcade a-1, 6OO.O0 e
: Radio •vg win/avg 1oee 0.43 kvg trade (•1n G 1oce) 953G.8t :
: Naw conaemstlve winners 6 Nax consecutive 1oaera 2 :
• Asg C baca 1n mlnnexe 1 ksg fi haca in 1oeera 3 t
• fsaa cloeed-out drawd •. g-5, 250.O0 Fsax 1ntxa-day dreadoun 8-g,15O.00 •
• keoount alza regu1red S9.150.OO necuczs on aooount 111fi t
In the Bond market, the best buy days are Tuesday and Thursday, as shown below with
Tuesdays making $5,062, and Thursdays $3,562
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• Tata1 ned peo€1t 55.062.50 t
t croea pxo££'b S5,O81.25 croae loee 8-t8.75 t
• Total 0 of trades 10 Percent p»o£1tah1e 9Ot •
• Nuabar w1nn1ng tirades 9 Number 1oatng tradea 1 !
• t.arqest winning tirade 52,13'7.5o z.nrpeat losing trade 5-18. 7s t
average w1nntng trede 9564. 50 average loclng trede 8-18. 75 i
Rat1o asg w1n,/esg 1oss 30. 11 Avg 'brade (vsn S 1oes 1 S5O6. 25 t
I flax oon•emst1se wlnmeza 6 FTnw uoneeeutlve 1oaere 1 t
I h N hare 1n 1rmeea 3 k ¥ hare 1n 1osars
•
S-18. 75 tlax lncrn-dep drawd -•• 0 -968.75 !
271. 00 rtax I of uont»accs hald
: *ccount olza *equi*ed SI, 968.'75 R•micts on account 127§ •
1 ° est fi
• Totai nec p o£1t
4 of 5
53,562.50
Space bar to togg1a d1ap1ay t
lDDOOOOeoooOOooOOOODoa'DoODDDOOODODOo'oDODOoODODoOOOoDDDOOODDOOOODDooDDDDODDDaaaas
!
• Croee pro£l¢ 53,562. 50 Groaa loss 60.00 t
: Tata1 fi o£ 'tradea 3O Percen'c profitab1e 1O0S
• Nuabar w1nn1ng trades 10 Ntmber losing trades 0 •
: t•aegest wk nntng trrade 5856.25 largest 1os1ng trade SO. 00
. • A•orage winning trade fi356.25 teenage los1ng trade SO. 00 !
: Rac1o avg w1n/a•g 1oaa 0.OO Atrg trade (w1n G 1ogq )
• Hax conaemsttse winners 10 How consecutive I osers 0 •
: keg 0 have 1n w1nnaua
• Hax c1oeed-out drawdoun SO.00 Nex 1ntra-day drawdown S -656.25 •
100. 00 Hax C o£ contracts i eza
S3, 656. 25 Re turn on account
Monday is an excellent day to buy the S&P 500. We can make it even bener by adding
one little filter. If the 18-day moving average of Bonds is >/= to the previous day (Bonds
are in an up-trend) then buy the S&P on Monday’s opening. The $ l51,225 profits--with
26 winners in a row--makes for successful, as well as very easy, trading.
o D Do ODu0U0¥¥D0ObOb0b0bBbbbBDDDDbabbbD a
1 •
Just as some days of the week are better than others for buying and selling, so it is with
days of the month. As an example, taking 50% of the range of day I (not the first day,
but calendar day I) and subtracting that from the next day’s opening makes $14,275. If
the calendar day is 2, and we sell at 15% of the range the next day, we net $47,575. Day
3 at 45% turns out $24,900.
RObI• - All tzadee :
12 h%%â,...,ââ.:â..»ââ«.».....».».».«».
• Tota1 net p<o£1t 614.275.00
.. »°âââ »ââ»âi âlf.7«»âf.âf»t
• cross pyoylt 522, 775. OO Grosa 1oss S-8.500.00 t
o “r”s
: 7oCa1 net peo£lt 92¥ . 900. OO •
14' I G¥'O00 @¥'O£'1t 845. 300.OO G¥'OBE 1oe0 8-20, 400. OO t
. toce1 fi o£ cxedea 52 Pezuen€ pzo£ltahie 840 t
t Nuabax w1nnCng txadea d4 Utzabec 1oa1nq txadaa b t
: t.argect wtnn1ng ceede 85.125.OO fi•acgaal loalnq trede 8-1,550.00 t
• Aeerage wlnn1ng trade 81.O29.55 Average 1oe1ng trade 6-2.550.OO t
t eetlo avg usnyawg 1oaa 0.40 Aeg txade (wsm & 1Oaa) 94'78.85 t
: Hax conaemst1ve wlnne s 5 Nax eonoecutlve 1osere 1 t
: kvg C bara 1n w1nnera 1 kvg # hara 1n loeera 1 !
t f4ax c1ooed-out draadoan S-2, SSO. OO ¥fex 1ntra-day drawdosm 8-1, 700.00
• Pro£1'b yactor 1. 22 Nax € of wonereeta held 1 •
In Bonds, 1checked just selling on the opening, and this is what I found. Selling on
calendar day 9 (based on a calendar day 8) produced $2l,968. Meanwhile, selling on the
15th, following day 14, netted S15,250. Clearly there is a strong monthly bias you should
be aware of, and can trade from.
Consider these two days: Day one the market has a high of
60, a low of 52 and a close of 58. The previous days close
was 57 so price was up one dollar for the day. On our
charts we plot this as a positive move of one dollar, up
one unit on our chart.
Consider though if the high had been 63, the low 57, and
the close the same, at 58, up a dollar for the day. On the
surface it looks the same on our charts, a dollar move up
is a dollar move up.
WOOO
355.00
350.00
345.00
WOOO
33500
330.00
325.00
97.00
96.00
95.00
94.00
93.00
92.00
Se Dec
&P 500 INDEX 55/99-DaiIy 09/11/95 C=578.65 +.50 O=578.30 H=580.05 L=5/7.80 V=93357
575.00
570.00
565.00
560.00
555.00
550.00
170.00
169.00
168.00
167.00
166.00
165.00
164.00
163.00
Se
6OYBEANS 11/ 5-Daily 09/11/95 C=627^4 -3^2 O=629^0 H=629^4 L=625"4 V=172175
18 t t
D5O’O
B37^4
25’0
12^4
00’0
587^4
575^0
562"4
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
WAccoist -J
20.00
10.00
000
-10.00
-20.00
30.00
10 17 24 31 A 7 14 21 28 S 4 11
f481"2
ł475^0
468^6
|462"4
456^2
450"0
431"2
425^0
illiams TRUE TREND 4.60
5.00
4.50
.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
WAccDist 91.50
90.00
80.00
70.00
0.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10 17 24 31 ›
wîss Franc - CME- ily 09/11/95 C=83.37 +.35 O=83.70 H=83.74 L=83.34 V=19452
20 70.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
.00
300
31.00
32.00
33.00
34.00
35.00
36.00
-37.00
-38.00
39.00
0.00
Dec 89 eb
4700
46.50
46.00
45.50
45.00
44.50
44.00
43.50
UE TREND -16.97
-29.00
-30.00
-31.00
-32.00
-33.00
-34.00
-35.00
-36.00
-37.00
-38.00
Ma
80^00
79^12
78^24
77^16
76^28
76^08
75^20
75^00
74"12
-55.00
56.00
-5Ü00
-58.00
-59.00
000
-61.00
Æ200
Æ3.00
Se
89^12
88"24
88"04
87^16
86^28
86^O8
85^20
85"00
B4"12
MOOO
M0.50
-41.00
-41.50
-42.00
-42.50
3.00
159.00
158.00
t157.00
156.00
155.00
154.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
00
5.00
4.00
0.50
-0.50
-1.50
-2.50
-3.50
17 24 31 A 21 28 S 4