Tesla

Company analysis
Drivers

Selected case 2
Company Tesla
Currency USD
Domestic country United States
10-year treasury yield (Sep 18 2020) 0.70%
Market risk premium US 5%
Company beta (Dec 15 2020) 2.15
Tesla share price (Dec 15 2020) 639.83
Bond Yield (Sep 18 2020) 4.32%
Corporate tax rate 21%
Expected inflation 2%
Input -->
P&L Input

2015 2016 2017 2018

(in thousands) Act Act Act Act
Automotive revenues 3,740,973 6,350,766 9,641,300 18,514,983
Energy generation and storage 14,477 181,394 1,116,266 1,555,244
Services and other 290,575 467,972 1,001,185 1,391,041
Total revenues 4,046,025 7,000,132 11,758,751 21,461,268
Automotive cost of revenues (2,823,302) (4,750,081) (7,432,704) (14,173,997)
Energy generation and storage cost of revenues (12,287) (178,332) (874,538) (1,364,896)
Services and other cost of revenues (286,933) (472,462) (1,229,022) (1,880,354)
Gross profit 923,503 1,599,257 2,222,487 4,042,021
Research and development (717,900) (834,408) (1,378,073) (1,460,370)
Selling, general and administrative (922,232) (1,432,189) (2,476,500) (2,834,491)
Restructuring and other (135,233)
EBIT (716,629) (667,340) (1,632,086) (388,073)
Interest income 1,508 8,530 19,686 24,533
Interest expense (118,851) (198,810) (471,259) (663,071)
Other income (expense), net (41,652) 111,272 (125,373) 21,866
EBT (875,624) (746,348) (2,209,032) (1,004,745)
Provision for income taxes (13,039) (26,698) (31,546) (57,837)
Net loss incl. minority interests (888,663) (773,046) (2,240,578) (1,062,582)
Minority interests - 98,132 279,178 86,491
Net loss (888,663) (674,914) (1,961,400) (976,091)

KPIs
Revenue % automotive y-o-y 70% 52% 92%
Revenue % generation y-o-y 1153% 515% 39%
Revenue % services y-o-y 61% 114% 39%
GP% automotive 25% 25% 23% 23%
GP% energy generation and automotive 15% 2% 22% 12%
GP% services and other 1% -1% -23% -35%
Overall GP% 23% 23% 19% 19%
EBIT % -18% -10% -14% -2%
Net loss % -22% -10% -17% -5%
ROA -11% -3% -7% -3%
ROE -82% -14% -46% -20%
 2019
Act
20,821,000
1,531,000
2,226,000
24,578,000
(16,398,000)
(1,341,000)
(2,770,000)
4,069,000
(1,343,000)
(2,646,000)
(149,000)
(69,000)
44,000
(685,000)
45,000
(665,000)
(110,000)
(775,000)
(87,000)
(862,000)

12%
-2%
60%
21%
12%
-24%
17%
0%
-4%
-3%
-13%
Balance Sheet Input

31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec

(in thousands) 2015 2016 2017
Cash and cash equivalents 1,196,908 3,393,216 3,367,914
Restricted cash and marketable securities 22,628 105,519 155,323
Accounts receivable, net 168,965 499,142 515,381
Inventory 1,277,838 2,067,454 2,263,537
Prepaid expenses and other current assets 115,667 194,465 268,365
Total current assets 2,782,006 6,259,796 6,570,520
Operating lease vehicles, net 1,791,403 3,134,080 4,116,604
Solar energy systems, leased and to be leased, net - 5,919,880 6,347,490
Property, plant and equipment, net 3,403,334 5,982,957 10,027,522
Operating lease right-of-use assets - - -
Intangible assets, net 12,816 376,145 361,502
portion - 506,302 516,889
Restricted cash, net of current portion 31,522 268,165 441,722
Other assets 46,858 216,751 273,123
Total assets 8,067,939 22,664,076 28,655,372
Accounts payable 916,148 1,860,341 2,390,250
Accrued liabilities 422,798 1,210,028 1,731,366
Deferred revenue 423,961 763,126 1,015,253
Resale value guarantees 136,831 179,504 787,333
Customer deposits 283,370 663,859 853,919
Current portion of long-term debt and capital leases 627,927 984,211 796,549
Current portion of solar bonds issued to related
parties - 165,936 100,000
Total current liabilities 2,811,035 5,827,005 7,674,670
Long-term debt and capital leases, net of current
portion 2,021,093 5,860,049 9,415,700
Other liabilities 2,152,107 5,438,936 6,330,414
Total liabilities 6,984,235 17,125,990 23,420,784
Total stockholders' equity 1,083,704 4,752,911 4,237,242
Noncontrolling interests in subsidiaries - 785,175 997,346
Total liabilities and equity 8,067,939 22,664,076 28,655,372

KPIs
Liquidity ratios
Quick ratio 0.43 0.60 0.46
Current ratio 0.99 1.07 0.86
DSO 15.03 25.67 15.78
DIO 147.32 137.81 85.45
DPO 105.62 124.00 90.23
Net Trading Cycle 56.73 39.47 11.00
Solvency ratios
Debt ratio 0.87 0.76 0.82
Interest coverage <0 <0 <0
 31 Dec 31 Dec
2018 2019
3,685,618 6,268,000
192,551 246,000
949,022 1,324,000
3,113,446 3,552,000
365,671 713,000
8,306,308 12,103,000
2,089,758 2,447,000
6,271,396 6,138,000
11,330,077 10,396,000
- 1,218,000
282,492 339,000
489,707 591,000
398,219 269,000
571,657 808,000
29,739,614 34,309,000
3,404,451 3,771,000
2,094,253 2,905,000
630,292 1,163,000
502,840 317,000
792,601 726,000
2,567,699 1,785,000

- -
9,992,136 10,667,000

9,403,672 11,634,000
4,586,166 4,541,000
23,981,974 26,842,000
4,923,243 6,618,000
834,397 849,000
29,739,614 34,309,000

0.39 0.61
0.83 1.13
15.92 19.39
64.34 62.35
70.36 66.19
9.91 15.55

0.81 0.78
<0 <0
Workings -->
Income Statement items
ms
Automotive
Deliveries

Tesla Deliveries
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Vehicle Act Act Act Act Act Fcst
Tesla Model 3 - - 1,764 146,055 300,815 481,304
Tesla Model S and X 50,580 76,230 101,312 98,865 66,385 69,040
Tesla Model Y - - - - - 1,764
Tesla Roadster 2 - - - - - -
Tesla Pickup - - - - - -
Tesla Semi - - - - - -
Total 50,580 76,230 103,076 244,920 367,200 552,108
y-o-y growth %
Tesla Model 3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 8180% 106% 60%
Tesla Model S and X n.a. 51% 33% -2% -33% 4%
Tesla Model Y n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Tesla Roadster 2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Tesla Pickup n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Tesla Semi n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Assumed growth after introduction:

2 years 10%
2 years 8%
onwards 4%
 Tesla Deliveries
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
529,434 582,378 628,968 679,286 706,457 734,715 764,104 794,668 826,455
71,802 74,674 77,661 80,768 83,998 87,358 90,852 94,487 98,266
146,055 300,815 481,304 529,434 582,378 628,968 679,286 706,457 734,715
- 500 1,000 1,500 1,650 1,815 1,960 2,117 2,202
250 20,699 42,633 68,212 75,033 82,537 89,139 96,271 100,121
250 20,699 42,633 68,212 75,033 82,537 89,139 96,271 100,121
747,791 999,766 1,274,198 1,427,411 1,524,549 1,617,929 1,714,481 1,790,270 1,861,881

10% 10% 8% 8% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
8180% 106% 60% 10% 10% 8% 8% 4% 4%
n.a. n.a. 100% 50% 10% 10% 8% 8% 4%
n.a. 8180% 106% 60% 10% 10% 8% 8% 4%
n.a. 8180% 106% 60% 10% 10% 8% 8% 4%
 Tesla vehicle deliveries 2015-2029 (actuals and forecasts)
2,000,000

1,800,000

1,600,000

1,400,000

1,200,000
Production

1,000,000

800,000

600,000
-
69,040
400,000
-
66,385
- 481,304
200,000 98,865
300,815
- -
-
50,580 76,230 101,312
- - - 1,764
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Act Act Act Act Act Fcst

Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model S and X

 89,139
82,537 89,139
75,033 82,537
68,212 75,033
68,212
42,633
42,633 679,286
628,968
582,378
529,434
481,304

250 300,815 90,852

87,358
250 80,768 83,998
146,055 77,661
74,674
- 71,802
69,040

706,457 734,715 764,104

385 628,968 679,286
529,434 582,378
481,304
,815

19 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

ct Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst

Model 3 Tesla Model S and X Tesla Model Y Tesla Roadster 2 Tesla Pickup Tesla Semi
 100,121
96,271
100,121
89,139 96,271
82,537 89,139
82,537

734,715
706,457
679,286
628,968

98,266
94,487
90,852
87,358

794,668 826,455
734,715 764,104

2026 2027 2028 2029

Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
Deliveries comparables

Comparables 2015-2019

Vehicle Sales 2015-2019 - average Average Adj. Average

GM 9,600,340 9,600,340
Ford 6,607,000 6,607,000
Fiat Chrysler 4,740,000 4,740,000
BMW 2,460,000 2,460,000
Volkswagen 10,700,000 10,700,000
Jaguar n.a. n.a.
Porsche n.a. n.a.
Ferrari n.a. n.a.
Scania n.a. n.a.
MAN n.a. n.a.
Paccar n.a. n.a.
Average n.a. 6,821,468

Tesla Expected Deliveries

2020 552,108
2024 1,427,411
2029 1,861,881
Average prices

Model and Version Range Base price Fully loaded

Model 3 Standard Range Plus 250 miles $39,990 $51,490
Model 3 Long Range 322 miles $48,990 $60,490
Model 3 Performance 322 miles $56,990 $66,990

Average Model 3

Model S Long Range 373 miles $79,990 $95,490

Model S Performance 348 miles $99,990 $115,990

Model X Long Range 328 miles $84,990 $106,490

Model X Performance 305 miles $104,990 $128,490

Average Model S and X

Model Base price Max price

CyberTruck $39,900 $76,900
Model Y $48,000 $74,000
Roadster 2020 $200,000 $250,000
Semi $150,000 $200,000
Average Price per Model