GLOBAL WARMING & CLIMATE CHANGES

UNIT-3
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

S.NO TOPICS

1. Causes of Climate change

Change of Temperature in the environment

2.

Melting of ice and sea level rise

3.

4. Impacts of Climate Change on various sectors

5. Projected impacts for different regions

6. Uncertainties in the projected impacts

7. Risk of irreversible changes

Learning Outcomes

After completing this Unit, students will be able to

 To know about the causes of climate change and its effects on various sectors.

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Climate change:
The periodic modification of Earth’s climate brought about due to the changes in the
atmosphere as well as the interactions between the atmosphere and various other geological,
chemical, biological and geographical factors within the Earth’s system is called Climate
change.
 Climate change can make weather patterns less predictable. These unforeseen weather
patterns can make it difficult to maintain and grow crops, making agriculture-dependent
countries like India vulnerable.
 It is also causing damaging weather events like more frequent and intense hurricanes,
floods, cyclones, flooding etc.
 Due to the rising temperature caused by climate change, the ice in the polar regions is
melting at an accelerated rate, causing sea levels to rise. This is damaging the coastlines
due to the increased flooding and erosion.
 The cause of the current rapid climate change is due to human activities and threatening
the very survival of humankind.

Causes of Climate Change:

Natural Factors – affect the climate over a period of thousands to millions of years.Such as
– 
1. Continental Drift – have formed millions of years ago when the landmass began to drift
apart due to plate displacement. This impacts climate change due to the change in the
landmass’s physical features and position and the change in water bodies’ position like the
change in the follow of ocean currents and winds.

2. Volcanism – Volcanic eruption emits gasses and dust particles that last for a longer period
causing a partial block of the Sun rays thus leading to cooling of weathers and influencing
weather patterns.

3. Changes in Earth’s Orbit – A slight change in the Earth’s orbit has an impact on the
sunlight’s seasonal distribution reaching earth’s surface across the world. There are three
types of orbital variations – variations in Earth’s eccentricity, variations in the tilt angle of
the Earth’s axis of rotation and precession of Earth’s axis. These together can cause
Milankovitch cycles, which have a huge impact on climate and are well-known for their
connection to the glacial and interglacial periods.

Anthropogenic Factors – is mainly a human-caused increase in global surface temperature.

Such as –

1. Greenhouse Gasses – these absorb heat radiation from the sun resulting in an increase in
Global Temperature. GHGs mostly do not absorb solar radiation but absorb most of the
infrared emitted by the Earth’s surface. Read more on Greenhouse Gasses on the given
link. Global warming begins with the greenhouse effect, which is caused by the interaction
between incoming radiation from the sun and the atmosphere of Earth.

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Atmospheric Aerosols – these can scatter and absorb solar and infrared radiation. Solar
radiation scatters and cools the planet whereas aerosols on absorbing solar radiation
increase the temperature of the air instead of allowing the sunlight to be absorbed by the
Earth’s surface. Aerosols have a direct affect on climate change on absorption and
reflection of solar radiation. Indirectly it can affect by modifying clouds formation and
properties. It can even be transported thousands of kilometres away through winds and
circulations in the atmosphere. 

Shift in land-use pattern – Most of the forests and land covers are replaced by agricultural
cropping, land grazing, or for Industrial or commercial usage. The clearing of forest cover
increases solar energy absorption and the amount of moisture evaporated into the
atmosphere. 

Effects/Evidence of Climate Change:

According to a research study by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC), human activities have led to an increase in global temperature of about 1 ° C (0.8 °
C to 1.2 ° C) above pre-industrial levels. Following is the evidence that proves that climate
change is a reality and needs to be taken into account for future policies and action:-

 A rise in atmospheric temperature:

 The greenhouse gases released due to human activities are increasing the temperature of
the Earth.
 The last 6 years topped the list of hottest years ever recorded.
 The increase in temperature is the major cause of the current increase in heat-related
deaths and illnesses, rise in sea levels and an increase in the intensity of natural disasters.
 The 20th century saw an increase in the Earth’s average temperature by 1°F. This is
believed to be the fastest rise in a thousand years.
 Research estimates predict that if the GHGs are not reduced, the average surface
temperature could increase to 3-5°F by the end of this century.

 Change in landscapes:
 Increasing temperature and changing climate and weather patterns across the globe led to
the shift of trees and plants towards Polar Regions and mountains.
 As the vegetation tries to adapt to climate change by moving towards colder regions, the
animals that are dependent on them will be forced to follow them for survival. While some
survive, many perish in the attempt.
 Other species like polar bears dependent on cold terrains will not have any habitat due to
the melting of ice, causing a risk to their survival.
 Thus, the current hasty change in the landscape causes a considerable risk to the survival
of many species, including the human population.

 A risk to the ecosystem:

 An increase in the temperature across the globe is changing the weather and vegetation
patterns, making the species to migrate to cooler areas for survival.
 This poses a threat to the survival of numerous species. It is projected that by 2050, one-
fourth of the Earth’s species may become extinct if the current trend continues.

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 Rising sea levels:

 An increase in the temperature of the Earth leads to a rise in sea level due to the thermal
expansion (a condition wherein the warm water takes up more area than cooler water).
The melting of glaciers adds to this problem.
 The population living in under-lying areas, islands and coasts are threatened by the rising
sea levels.
 It erodes shorelines, damage properties and destroys ecosystems like mangroves and
wetlands that protect coasts from storms.
 In the last 100 years, the sea level has risen to 4-8 inches and will continue to rise between
4 and 36 inches in the next 100 years.

 Ocean Acidification:
 The increase in the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has increased the CO2 absorption
in the ocean. This makes the ocean acidic.
 The increase in the acidification of the ocean can be harmful to many marine species like
plankton, molluscs, etc. The corals are especially susceptible to this as they find it difficult
to create and maintain the skeletal structures needed for their survival.

 Increase in the risk of natural and manmade disasters:

 The moisture from land and water is rapidly evaporating due to the high atmospheric
temperature.
 This causes drought. Those areas that are affected by drought are highly susceptible to the
negative effects of flooding.
 As this current condition, the droughts may become more frequent and more severe. This
may lead to distressing consequences for agriculture, water security, and health.
 Countries in Asia and Africa are already facing this phenomenon, with droughts becoming
longer and more intense.

 Health issues:
 The high temperature across the globe can pose health risks and deaths.
 The increased heat waves caused by climate change have led to the deaths of many
globally.
 For instance, in 2003, the extreme heatwaves led to the death of more than 20,000 people
in Europe and caused more than 1,500 deaths in India.
 Climate change increases the spreading of contagious diseases as the long-term warm
weather allows disease-carrying insects, animals and microbes to survive longer.

 Economic impacts:
 It is estimated that if action is not taken to address the carbon emissions, climate change
could cost about 5 to 20% of the annual global GDP.
 In contrast, the cost to lessen the most damaging effects of climate change is just 1% of
the GDP.
 Climate change can alter shoreline habitats. This may lead to the need for relocation of
ports and near-shore infrastructures and habitats, costing about millions of dollars.
 The increased hurricanes and other related natural disasters can bring forth extreme
economic losses caused by damaged properties and infrastructures.
 Declining crop yields due to the lengthy droughts and high temperatures can lead to a risk

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of starvation of thousands of people.

 Agriculture productivity and food security:
 The crop cultivation is dependent on solar radiation, favourable temperature and
precipitation.
 Hence, agriculture has always been dependent on climate patterns.
 The current climate change
 has affected agricultural productivity, food supply and food security.
 These effects are biophysical, ecological and economic.
 They resulted in:
 Climate and agricultural zones are moving towards poles

Climate Change in India:

India is on the verge of climate change and it threatens social equity. Many citizens
rely on the natural resources in India. The depletion of natural resources will endanger
the livelihoods of a huge population. Agriculture and other natural resources are also
dependent on rainfall and water resources. The alteration in the weather patterns and
climate structure will only augment the risks of floods, droughts, and other natural
calamities.
The question presented by India at the UN of announcing climate change as a security issue,
and handing over the responsibility to the Security Council has perils associated with it. This
will agitate the Paris Agreement. All citizens behold a responsibility to take action in favor of
nature and cater to environmental needs.

Risks Of Climate Change in India:

Numerous risks are associated with climate change in India, it poses threat to the
environment. The imbalances created in the climate and environment pose risks to the stability
of the ecology. The consequences of climate change lead to an increase in competition among
resources.
 A section of the population is dependent on natural resources for their living. The
depletion of resources can result in their migration to other places and an increase in
insecurities.
 Extreme weather conditions and alterations in the patterns will augment the risk of floods
and other natural catastrophes.
 Climate change poses threat to the food chains and food cycle. This can lead to a surge in
the prices and volatility of markets.
 The persisting climate issues can risk the availability of water and its associated quality. It
will create tensions for the transboundary water, like the Indus water treaty.
 There is a rise in the levels of the sea which might lead to migration and disruption of
society.

Steps Taken By India To Combat Climate Change – NAPCC:

The NAPCC [ National Action Plan on Climate Change] is a committee set up by the Indian
government with the aim of tackling climate change. It comprises 8 missions such as the

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National Solar Mission, National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency, National Water
Mission, National Mission for sustaining the Himalayan ecosystem, the National mission on
sustainable habitat, the national mission on strategic knowledge for climate change, National
Mission for a Green India, National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture.

Govt has launched the following programs to address climate change under NAPCC:-

 The National Solar Mission has been launched for promoting the use of solar energy for
power generation
 The Government of India has initiated the National Enhanced Energy Efficiency Mission
for Energy Conservation in Industries.
 The Government of India has initiated the National Sustainable Habitat Mission to
promote energy efficiency technology in urban planning.
 For the conservation of water through pricing and other measures, the National Water
Mission has been launched.
 For conserve biodiversity, forest cover, and other ecological values in the Himalayan
region National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem has been launched.
 The Government of India has initiated a “Green India Mission” for the afforestation of
more than 6 mn hectares of degraded forest land and to increase forest cover from 23% to
33%.
 To support climate-resilient agriculture National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture has
been launched.
 Through the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), India has prepared a
20-year national action plan for combating desertification.
 For measuring the impact of industries on the environment, the Environment Impact
Assessment Program has been launched by the Government of India.
 Eco-Sensitive Zone has been notified for better protection of Wildlife sanctuaries and
National Parks.
 India is promoting the use of renewable energy sources.
 India is making various policies for the conservation of the environment like –
Environment (Protection) Act, 1986, Forest (Conservation) Act, 1980, Wildlife Protection
Act, 1972 etc.

Change of temperature:

Changes in climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity affect a

wide range of natural processes and human activities. For example, temperature change can
influence crops, forests, infrastructure, the spread of disease, the availability of water
and the health of ecosystems.
Climate change has impacted the world in a drastic way, it has led to extreme weather
conditions in certain parts of India. The melting of the ice glaciers, and the surge in the sea
levels are all consequences of climate change. Let’s discuss the impacts of climate change
below

Landscape Change
Landscape change has contributed to the continuous change in the positioning of land
mass and also the movement of the flora and fauna towards the polar regions as they seek a
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cooler environment to tackle rising temperatures. On the contrary, the habitat of polar species
is in danger due to the melting of ice as a result of global warming.

Rise in the Levels of the Sea

The melting of glaciers is the result of global warming due to the increased temperature of
the earth’s atmosphere. All this water merges with the ocean and results in a significant rise in
the sea level leading to a high risk of natural disasters like floods in the coastal regions. These
disasters erode the coastlines and destroy the ecosystems and wetlands around them.

Ocean Acidification
Increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere lead to increased absorption of
carbon dioxide by the ocean leading to ocean acidification. This, as a result, destroys the
habitat for aquatic species like plankton, mollusks, and corals.

Ecosystem Imbalances
Changes in weather patterns disrupt the local environment Hence destroying the suitable
ecological conditions and the survival of indigenous species. This causes an imbalance in the
ecosystem and destroys the natural environment.

Natural Disasters
Draughts are occurring in various parts of the world as a result of a lack of adequate
rainfall and high intensity of solar radiation in that geographical area, depleting the local
species. The rise in sea level is another phenomenon caused by climate change that leads to
floods, hurricanes, and storms.

Adverse Human Health

Human health is compromised due to the high concentration of toxic gases in the
atmosphere, which leads to various respiratory diseases. High temperatures also lead to an
increase in various potential diseases in humans.

Melting of ice and sea level rise:

 Sea level rise is an increase in ocean depth brought on by climate change, particularly
global warming, and is primarily caused by three things: thermal expansion, glacier
melting, and the loss of Greenland and Antarctica’s ice sheets.
 Tide stations and satellite laser altimeters are the main tools used to measure sea level.
 Less than a centimetre has been added to the sea’s average height annually over the past
century, but those tiny increases add up.
It is anticipated that in 2016, the rate will be 3.4 millimetres per year, up from roughly 3.2
millimetres per year in 2000.
 Throughout the past century, the sea level has been rising, and recently, the rate has
quickened. Between 1880 and 2015, the average worldwide sea level increased by 8.9
inches. Compared to the previous 2,700 years, that is substantially faster.
 SLR varies from country to country. Due to subsidence, upstream flood control, erosion,
regional ocean currents, changes in land height, and compressive weight of Ice Age
glaciers, regional SLR may be higher or lower than global SLR.

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SLR is Linked to Three Primary Factors:

 Thermal Expansion: When water heats up, it expands. About half of the sea-level rise
over the past 25 years is attributable to warmer oceans simply occupying more space.

 Melting Glaciers: Higher temperatures caused by global warming have led to greater-

than-average summer melting of large ice formations like mountain glaciers as well
as diminished snowfall due to later winters and earlier springs. That creates an imbalance
between runoff and ocean evaporation, causing sea levels to rise.

 Loss of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets: As with mountain glaciers, increased heat
is causing the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica to melt more
quickly, and also move more quickly into the sea.

Rate of SLR:

Global: Global sea level has been rising over the past century, and the rate has accelerated in
recent decades. The average global sea level has risen 8.9 inches between 1880 and 2015. That’s
much faster than in the previous 2,700 years.
Also, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released ‘The Special
Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate’ in 2019 which underlined the dire
changes taking place in oceans, glaciers, and ice-deposits on land and sea.

Regional: SLR is not uniform across the world. Regional SLR may be higher or lower than
Global SLR due to subsidence, upstream flood control, erosion, regional ocean currents,
variations in land height, and compressive weight of Ice Age glaciers.

Consequences of SLR:

 Coastal Flooding: Globally, eight of the world's 10 largest cities are near a coast, which

is threatened by coastal flooding.
 Destruction of Coastal Biodiversity: SLR can cause destructive erosion, wetland
flooding, aquifer and agricultural soil contamination with salt, and lost habitat for
biodiversity.
 Dangerous Storm Surges: Higher sea levels are coinciding with more
dangerous hurricanes and typhoons leading to loss of life and property.

 Lateral and Inland Migration: Flooding in low-lying coastal areas is forcing people to

migrate to the higher ground causing displacement and dispossession and in turn
a refugee crisis worldwide.

 Impact on Infrastructure: The prospect of higher coastal water levels threatens basic

services such as internet access.
 Threat to Inland Life: Rising seas can contaminate soil and groundwater with salt
threatening life farther away from coasts.
 Tourism and Military Preparedness: Tourism to coastal areas and military

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preparedness will also be negatively affected by an increase in SLR.

Steps taken to Tackle SLR:

 Relocation: Many coastal cities have planned to adopt relocation as a mitigation strategy.

For example, Kiribati Island has planned to shift to Fiji, while the Capital of Indonesia is
being relocated from Jakarta to Borneo.
 Building Sea Wall: Indonesia’s government launched a coastal development project
called a Giant Sea Wall or "Giant Garuda" in 2014 meant to protect the city from floods.
 Building Enclosures: Researchers have proposed Northern European Enclosure
Dam (NEED), enclosing all of the North Sea to protect 15 Northern European countries
from rising seas. The Persian Gulf, the Mediterranean Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Irish Sea,
and the Red Sea were also identified as areas that could benefit from similar mega
enclosures.
 Architecture to Steer Flow of Water: Dutch City Rotterdam built barriers, drainage,
and innovative architectural features such as a "water square" with temporary ponds.

Vulnerability of India:

o India's 7,516-kilometre-long coastline includes 5,422 kilometres of coastline on

the mainland and 2,094 kilometres on the islands belonging to nine states and four
Union Territories.
o The coastline accounts for 90% of the country's trade and it spans 3,331
coastal villages and 1,382 islands.

India’s Efforts:

Coastal Regulation Zone: The coastal areas of seas, bays, creeks, rivers, and backwaters which
get influenced by tides up to 500 m from the high tide line (HTL) and the land between the low
tide line (LTL) and the high tide line were declared as Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) in 1991.
The latest regulation also takes into account rising sea-levels due to global warming.

National Action Plan on Climate Change: It was launched in 2008 by the Prime Minister's
Council on Climate Change. It aims at creating awareness among the representatives of the
public, different agencies of the government, scientists, industry and the communities on the
threat posed by climate change and the steps to counter it.

Way Forward

 The Paris Agreement provides a clear vision on limiting global warming and thus, SLR.

Some of the other steps in this direction would include:

 Switching from fossil fuels to clean alternatives like solar and wind energy.

 Instituting carbon taxes on industries and subsidies for reducing the carbon footprint.
 Carbon sequestration by geo-engineering and natural methods like restoring peatland and
wetland areas to capture existing greenhouse gases.
 Afforestation and reducing deforestation.

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 Subsidizing research on climate change.

Impacts of Climate Change on various sectors:

Rising temperatures and sea levels, along with increased incidence of extreme weather
events, pose a threat to the global economy. Global infrastructure spending, public food supply,
health and surging demand for energy are among the demographic themes that could come with
steep climate-change costs.
Even if we successfully combat global warming and temperatures rise up 2°C from preindustrial
levels, the damage to the world economy may be moderate, but certain regions and industries
will be much more affected than others, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change.

Insurance
The nature of flood insurance is that because floods only impact certain low-lying areas,
owners of homes above sea level don’t buy it; because there are fewer purchasers, flood
insurance is significantly more expensive. It is not included in most insurance plans.
Rising sea levels and the potential for increased incidences of catastrophic flooding will likely
drive up both premiums and payouts, putting a strain on the insurance industry. 

Agriculture
As the temperatures rise, many high-producing agricultural regions will feel a squeeze.
That matters an awful lot for the 30 percent of the world’s population that works in agriculture.
Though warmer temperatures can help crops grow more quickly, for many crops–like grains–the
faster the growth, the less time seeds have to mature, reducing worldwide yields.

Energy
For some industries, the risks posed by global warming are mostly about governments’
effort to slow it. Regulations on fossil fuels are likely to increase, threatening the lucrative oil,
gas and coal industries.

Beverage industry
“changing weather patterns, along with the increased frequency or duration of extreme
weather conditions, could impact the availability or increase the cost of key raw materials that
the company uses to produce its products.”

Commercial fishing
Ironically enough, as sea levels rise, the fishing industry will be one of the most adversely
affected.
Salmon and trout, for instance, thrive in cold, free-flowing water. Habitat loss for both could be
as high as 17 percent by 2030 and 34 percent by 2060 if emissions of heat-trapping pollutants are
not reduced. That would be a harsh loss for these fisheries, which are worth somewhere between
$1.5 and $14 billion a year, according to an analysis from the Natural Resources Defense
Council.
Ocean acidification also poses a problem for the fishing industry. Shellfish, like clams and
oysters, find it much more difficult to grow in a more acidic environment.

Transportation:
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Another sector that is expected to face the effects of climate change fiercely is
transportation. Rise in temperatures, which is one of the most salient outcomes of climate
change, might hinder the highway transportation by softening of asphalt and the railway
transportation by expanding the rails. Interruption of airway transportation due to the extreme
downfalls expected in spring and winter is another possible outcome. In addition, the floods that
are expected to increase in severity and frequency pose the risk of bridges to submerge and the
connection constructions to face landslide. 

Tourism
Two billion dollars could be lost in winter recreation due to less snow and ice. For
example, rapid warming in the Adirondack Mountains could decimate the winter activity sector,
which makes up 30 percent of the local economy.
In addition, as water temperatures increase, water quality could suffer due to more frequent and
more intense algae blooms, which can be toxic, thus curtailing recreational water activities and
freshwater fishing. More frequent and severe wildfires will worsen air quality and discourage
tourism. Sea level rise could submerge small islands and coastal areas, while deforestation and
its destructive impacts on biodiversity could make some tourist destinations less attractive.

Infrastructure
Much of our society’s critical infrastructure is at risk from flooding. “Sea level rise could
potentially cause a loss of value of assets in the trillions of dollars—probably anywhere from two
to five trillion dollars—by the end of the century. That’s loss from damage to housing, damage
to airports on the coasts, damage to docks, the railway line that runs up and down the East Coast
all of which is within a few feet of sea level, damage to I-95 which runs also along the coast.
And that’s just the East Coast. If you take a global perspective, this is repeated around the
world.” Much of this infrastructure will likely need to be repaired or replaced.

Businesses and the financial market

Climate change and its impacts across the globe will threaten the bottom line of businesses
in a variety of ways. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather, both in the U.S. and in
other countries, can damage factories, supply chain operations and other infrastructure, and
disrupt transport. Drought will make water more expensive, which will likely affect the cost of
raw materials and production. Climate volatility may force companies to deal with uncertainty in
the price of resources for production, energy transport and insurance. And some products could
become obsolete or lose their market, such as equipment related to coal mining or skiing in an
area that no longer has snow.

Projected impacts for different regions/Regional Vulnerability to Global

Climate Change:

The degree to which human conditions and the natural environment are vulnerable to the
potential effects of climate change is a key concern for governments and the environmental
science community worldwide. potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems,
water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health, and other resources for ten
global regions:
• Africa
• The Arctic and the Antarctic
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• Australasia
• Europe Latin America
• Middle East and Arid Asia
• North America Small Island States
• Temperate Asia Tropical Asia

• Africa: The African continent is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change
because of factors such as widespread poverty, recurrent droughts, inequitable land distribution,
and over dependence on rain-fed agriculture. Although adaptation options, including traditional
coping strategies, theoretically are available, in practice the human, infrastructural, and economic
response capacity to effect timely response actions may well be beyond the economic means of
some countries.
• The Arctic and the Antarctic: The Antarctic peninsula and the Arctic are very vulnerable to
projected climate change and its impacts. Although the number of people directly affected is
relatively small, many native communities will face profound changes that impact on traditional
lifestyles. Direct effects could include ecosystem shifts, sea- and river-ice loss, and permafrost
thaw. Indirect effects could include feed backs to the climate system such as further releases of
greenhouse gases, changes in ocean circulation drivers, and increased temperature and higher
precipitation with loss of ice, which could affect climate and sea level globally.

• Australasia: Australia’s relatively low latitude makes it particularly vulnerable to impacts on

its scarce water resources and on crops growing near or above their optimum temperatures

• Europe Latin America: Even though capabilities for adaptation in managed systems in many
places in Europe are relatively well established, significant impacts of climate change still should
be anticipated. Major effects are likely to be felt through changes in the frequency of extreme
events and precipitation, causing more droughts in some areas and more river floods elsewhere.
Effects will be felt primarily in agriculture and other water-dependent activities. Boreal forest
and permafrost areas are projected to undergo major change. Ecosystems are especially
vulnerable due to the projected rate of climate change and because migration is hampered

• Middle East and Arid Asia: Water is an important limiting factor for ecosystems, food and
fiber production, human settlements, and human health in this arid region of the world. Climate
change is anticipated to alter the hydro logical cycle, and is unlikely to relieve the limitations
placed by water scarcity upon the region. Climate change and human activities may further
Influence the levels of the Caspian and Aral Seas, which will affect associated ecosystems,
agriculture, and human health in the surrounding areas. Win-win opportunities exist which offer
the potential to reduce current pressures on resources and human welfare in the region and also
offer the potential to reduce their vulnerability to adverse impacts from climate change.

• North America Small Island States: Taken individually, any one of the impacts of climate
change may be within the response capabilities of a sub region or sector. The fact that they are
projected to occur simultaneously and in concert with changes in population. The Regional
Impacts o f Climate Change: An Assessment o f Vulnerability 15 technology, economics, and
other environmental and social changes, however, adds to the complexity of the impact
assessment and the choice of appropriate responses. The characteristics of sub regions and
sectors of North America suggest that neither the impacts of climate change nor the response

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options will be uniform. Many systems of North America are moderately to highly sensitive to
climate change, and the range of estimated effects often includes the potential for substantial
damages.
To evaluate the vulnerability of these island states to projected climate change, a
fully integrated approach to vulnerability assessments is needed. The interaction of various
biophysical attributes (e.g., size, elevation, relative isolation) with the islands’ economic and
sociocultural character ultimately determines the vulnerability of these islands. Moreover, some
islands are prone to periodic non climate-related hazards (e.g., earthquakes, volcanic eruptions,
tsunamis); the overall vulnerability of these islands cannot be accurately evaluated in isolation
from such threats.

• Temperate Asia, Tropical Asia: The major impacts in Temperate Asia under global climate
change are projected to be large shifts of the boreal forests, the disappearance of significant
portions of mountain glaciers, and water supply shortages. The most critical uncertainty in these
estimates stems from the lack of credible projections o f the hydro logical cycle under global
climate change scenarios. The effects of climate change on the Asian monsoon and the ENSO
phenomenon are among the major uncertainties in the modeling of the hydro logical cycle.
The potential direct effects of climate change assessed here, such as changes in water
availability, crop yields, and inundation of coastal areas, all will have further indirect effects on
food security and human health.

Uncertainties in the projected impacts:

Uncertainty is any departure from complete deterministic knowledge of the relevant system.
The main reasons why it’s important to assess and communicate about uncertainties:
 Necessary for impact and risk analysis
 In many cases, decision-makers can achieve superior outcomes when they take uncertainties
into account (to distinguish situations that do and do not require precautionary action)
 Communicating uncertainty enhances credibility, makes climate information more
trustworthy

There are many types or sources of uncertainties.

 
1. Natural variability
Natural variablity (day-to-day variation, year-to-year variation, and decade to decade
variation) is the temporal variation of the atmosphere–ocean system around a mean state due to
natural internal processes within the climate system.

Examples of internal variability: the different position of high and low pressure areas,
differences in air circulation, resulting in day-to-day variations in temperature or rainfall
Examples of variations in natural forcings: solar intensity, volcanic eruptions

2. Measuring errors

3. Inhomogeneities
Inhomogeneities are apparent changes in climate in long-term time series for reasons such
as re-locations of stations and/or instruments, slow or abrupt changes in the
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environment and changes in instruments and measurement practices.

4. Uncertainties in statistics due to due to limited data- ‘sampling uncertainty’, regularly this is
indicated with a 95% band.

5. Biases- Differences in statistics of the observations for the reference period and the climate
model simulation for the same period we call biases.

6. Imperfect knowledge about the development of the climate system- Model uncertainty is
the imperfect knowledge about the climate system, quantified with the help of a large
number of climate models that simulate the future climate for the same emission scenario.

7. Imperfect knowledge about the socio-economic future- Scenario uncertainty is the imperfect

knowledge about the socio-economic and technological developments in the future, resulting
in different emissions causing the emission of greenhouse gasses. This uncertainty
is quantified by comparing the (average) impact of the various emission scenarios or
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) on the future climate.

Model and scenario uncertainties can be reduced by doing more research to better
understand the systems. Using higher resolutions is one of the approaches to better simulate the
climate system.

12 principles for smarter communication about climate change uncertainties:

 Manage your audience’s expectations
 Start with what you know, not what you don’t know
 Be clear about the scientific consensus
 Shift from ‘uncertainty’ to ‘risk’
 Be clear what type of uncertainty you are talking about
 Understand what is driving people’s views about climate change
 The most important question for climate impacts is ‘when’, not ‘if’
 Communicate through images and stories
 Highlight the ‘positives’ of uncertainty
 Communicate effectively about climate impacts

Risk of irreversible changes:

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth

Assessment Report (AR6) titled Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis.

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Sea- Level Rise:

Sea-level rise has tripled compared with 1901-1971. The Arctic Sea ice is the lowest it has
been in 1,000 years.
Coastal areas will see continued sea-level rise throughout the 21st century, resulting
in coastal erosion and more frequent and severe flooding in low-lying areas.
About 50% of the sea level rise is due to thermal expansion (when water heats up, it expands,
thus warmer oceans simply occupy more space).

Precipitation & Drought:

Every additional 0.5 °C of warming will increase hot extremes, extreme precipitation
and drought. Additional warming will also weaken the Earth’s carbon sinks present in plants,
soils, and the ocean.

Heat Extremes:
Heat extremes have increased while cold extremes have decreased, and these trends will
continue over the coming decades over Asia.

Receding Snowline & Melting Glaciers:

Global Warming will have a serious impact on mountain ranges across the world,
including the Himalayas.
The freezing level of mountains are likely to change and snowlines will retreat over the
coming decades.

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Retreating snowlines and melting glaciers is a cause for alarm as this can cause a change
in the water cycle, the precipitation patterns, increased floods as well as an increased scarcity of
water in the future in the states across the Himalayas.
The level of temperature rise in the mountains and glacial melt is unprecedented in 2,000
years. The retreat of glaciers is now attributed to anthropogenic factors and human influence.

Indian Sub-continent Specific Findings about irreversible risks:

Heatwaves: Heatwaves and humid heat stress will be more intense and frequent during the
21st century over South Asia.

Monsoon: Changes in monsoon precipitation are also expected, with both annual and summer
monsoon precipitation projected to increase.
The South West Monsoon has declined over the past few decades because of the increase
of aerosols, but once this reduces, we will experience heavy monsoon rainfall.

Sea Temperature: The Indian Ocean, which includes the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal,
has warmed faster than the global average.
The sea surface temperature over Indian ocean is likely to increase by 1 to 2 °C when
there is 1.5°C to 2°C global warming. In the Indian Ocean, the sea temperature is heating at a
higher rate than other areas, and therefore may influence other regions.

WAY FORWARD:

 Climate change is described by many as a far greater threat to humanity than Covid-19,

because of its irreversible impacts. Many of the impacts such as sea level rise and melting of
glaciers will continue for many years.

 There is a need for a drastic and immediate cut in carbon emissions, given that the changes to
the climate already made are not reversible.
 All nations, especially the G20 and other major emitters, need to join the net-zero
emissions coalition and reinforce their commitments with credible, concrete and
enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions and policies .

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