CHAPTER ONE

1.0 BACKGROUND OF STUDY

Coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) was declared as pandemic by World Health

Organization on March 11th, 2020 mainly due to the speed and scale of the transmission of the

disease (WHO, 2020). Before that, it started as an epidemic in mainland China with the focus

being firstly reported in the city of Wuhan, Hubei province in February 26th (Zhu et al., 2019;

Zhan et al., 2020; Verity et al., 2020). The etiologic agent of COVID-19 was isolated and

identified as a novel coronavirus, initially designated as 2019-nCoV (WHO, 2020). Later, the

virus genome was sequenced (WHO, 2020) and because it was genetically related to the

coronavirus outbreak responsible for the SARS outbreak of 2003, the virus was named as severe

acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) by the International Committee for

Taxonomy of Viruses (Li et al., 2020). The origin and source of the SARS-CoV-2 remains

unknown, although the initial cases have been associated with the Huanan South China Seafood

Market where snakes, birds and other animals such as bats were sold. Considering that many of

the early patients worked in or visited the market in contrast to the exported cases, it was

suggested either a human to human transmission or a more widespread animal sequence identity

was demonstrated between SARS-CoV-2 and another coronavirus named Bat-CoV-RaTG13

isolated from bat species which colonized a province nearly 2000 km away from Wuhan.

Pangolins were also suggested as natural host of coronaviruses (Anderson et al., 2020).

However, evidence of human to human transmission became strongly supported on

January 22nd, 2020 after a visit conducted by a WHO delegation to the city of Wuhan (WHO,

2020). Since the first outbreak recognized in February 2020, the disease spread rapidly around

the world. According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, as of 17th of

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June 2020; 8,142,129 cases of COVID-19 and 443,488 deaths have been reported worldwide

since 31st December 2019. American continent was among the ones with highest number of

cases (3,987,543) with United States and Brazil the leading countries (2,137,731 and 923,189

respectively). Several SARS-CoV-2 samples have been isolated from different people and

genomic sequences have been available aiming to better understand the virus and to provide

information for the development of diagnostic tools and a potential vaccine. To date more than

42,000 SARS-CoV-2 RNA genomes have been uploaded in the Global Initiative on Sharing All

Influenza Data, known as GISAID (GISAID, 2020).

Biological threat and bio-terrorism discussion has increased exponentially and saliently in

the security discourse of recent especially last decade partly because of anthrax letter attack

(Revill et al., 2014). This discussion should continue as SARS-COV, MERS-COV and COVID-

19 are continually compared of resent in terms of fatality, The emergence of COVID-19 late

2019 and global spread within the shortest time was alarming to the extent that average of the

countries case fatality rates is 2-3% (Cao et al., 2020). There is also the wind of second wave

and variants of the COVID-19 pandemic just within 12 months of report (Arif, 2019) seems to

have fuelled second wave of the pandemic in Africa (WHO, 2021).

However, whereas the bat- to -human transmission of SARS-COV was likely mediated

by palm civets as intermediate hosts, humans were likely to acquire MERSCOV from dromedary

camels. Human -to –human transmission of MERS-COV does occur but is limited mostly to

healthcare environments. Moreover, whereas SARS-COV recognises angiotensin converting

enzyme 2 (ACE2) as a cellular receptor, COVID-19 just like MERS-COV uses dipeptidyl

peptidase 4 (DPP4) to enter target cells (Solerte et al., 2020). Currently, no antiviral therapy has

been approved for the prevention or treatment of COVID-19 pandemic, although many of them

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are being developed gradually or undergoing clinical test (Li & Du, 2006; Wang et al., 2006),

however, COVID-19 vaccine is now available with some challenges to address ranging from

COVID-19 mutation, second strains, cold chain and supply, accessibility and acceptability,

clinical efficacious and reactions, corrupt practices surrounding manufacture, allocation and

distribution (Pub, 2021; UNODC, 2020). A novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) called SARS-COV-

2 is a new strain of corona virus that has not been previously identified in humans.

Coronaviruses belongs to large family of viruses that are in both animals and humans. These

viruses infect people thereby causing various illnesses like common cold and other more severe

diseases (Dehghani & Masoumi, 2020).

Coronaviruses (COVs) is of the family Corona viridea which comprises of enveloped,

positive-sensed, single stranded RNA viruses’ group. These viruses harboring largest genome of

26 - 32 kilobase pairs amongst RNA viruses were termed COVs because of their morphology

which are crown like in nature when examined under electron microscope. Structurally,

Coronaviruses have a non-segmented genome that share a similar organisation. Approximately

two thirds of the genomes contain two large overlapping open reading frames (ORFIa and

ORFIb) which are translated into the ppla and pplab replicase polyproteins. The polyproteins are

further processed to generate 16 non-structural proteins designated nsp1-16 while the other

portion of the genome contains ORFs for the structural protein, including spike(S), envelope (E),

member (M) and nucleo (N) protein several lineage specific of COVs (Ye et al., 2020). The

structure possibly makes the virus capable of mutation and easy to spread.

The fact that COVID-19 is traced to Wuhan raised serious fears as to the possibility of

escape from the laboratory because of the possible escape of the possible harmful organisms

from the laboratory (Dehghani & Masoumi, 2020; Cyranoski, 2017) but WHO confirmed that

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COVID-19 is not from the laboratory but could be traced to animal origin in Wuhan. According

to the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), nearly 75% of all new

emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases of the last century originated in animals, such as

HIV, Ebola, avian influenza, and swine influenza (Hodgson et al., 2020). Accordingly, the initial

epicenter of SARS-CoV-2 was linked to possible contact with wild animals sold at wholesale

seafood and exotic animal markets of Huanan, Wuhan, Hubei province, China. Analysis of

complete genome sequences of the new coronavirus isolated from patients during the initial stage

of the outbreak in Wuhan showed only about 79% identity with SARS-CoV-1 (severe acute

respiratory syndrome coronavirus 1), identified in China in 2002 (9, 10), and 50% identity with

MERS-CoV (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus), identified in Saudi Arabia in 2012

(Zhou et al., 2020). Interestingly, it revealed 96% identity with a bat coronavirus (BatCoV)

found in Rhinolophus affinis (horseshoe bat), named RaTG13, sampled in Yunnan province,

China, in 2013, and 91.02% identity with a coronavirus obtained from pangolins (Manis

javanica) (Guan et al., 2003). This close phylogenetic relatedness of SARS-CoV-2 to non-human

coronaviruses, in the absence of a known ancestral virus sample, strongly suggests a viral host

jump from wildlife to humans, most likely from bats (Xia et al., 2020). More detailed genomic

analyses indicate that SARS-CoV-2 is a product of natural selection rather than laboratory

manipulation and that an animal source was likely involved in the initial cases of human

infections associated with the Huanan market (Hamzah et al., 2016). Because contact between

humans and bats is a rare event, it is also possible that a susceptible intermediate host species

may have participated in the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2, similar to what was observed with

SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV (Prashant et al., 2019; Hamzah et al., 2016).

4
 Through many centuries, mankind has engaged in various means of warfare. Contrary to

the expectations of some, civilization and education has not brought about peace but has led to

the development of more sinister methods of engaging in warfare: chemical, biological and

nuclear weapons. The Syrian Civil War has of recent exposed the horrors of chemical weapons

and its devastating effect on the human populace. However, the Coronavirus pandemic has

shown the terrifying effects of biological weapons

1.1 AIMS

The aim of the study is to highlight covid-19 as a synthetic dangerous organism from

scratch, either by using genomic information available online or acquiring information through

unauthorized means for non-legitimate use

1.2 OBJECTIVES

The objectives of the study are:

1. To highlight Covid-19 as an infection of laboratory personnel or the accidental release of

2. To highlight covid-19 as a natural infection from a zoonotic source

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 CHAPTER TWO

2.1 ETIOLOGY

Members of the Coronaviridae family have a positive-sense single-stranded RNA

genome varying from 26 to 32 kilobases, the largest viral RNA genomes ever described. CoVs

are enveloped viruses and identified in several species of birds and mammals, including humans.

The Coronaviridae family is composed of two subfamilies (Letovirinae and Orthocoronavirinae)

and four genera (Alphacoronavirus, Betacoronavirus, Gammacoronavirus, and Deltacoronavirus)

found in the subfamily Orthocoronavirinae. The organization and expression of their genome are

very similar, with 15 to 16 non-structural proteins (nsp1 to nsp16, with nsp1 being absent in

Gammacoronavirus), codified by ORF1ab at the 5′ end, and four to six structural proteins,

hemagglutinin-esterase (HE, found in some betacoronaviruses) spike (S), envelope (E),

membrane (M), and nucleoprotein (N), which are codified by ORFs at the 3′ end of the genome

(Region, 2020). In humans, CoVs primarily cause infections of the upper respiratory and

gastrointestinal tracts, with clinical manifestations ranging from asymptomatic to severe or lethal

(WHO, 2020). Seven CoV strains are able to infect humans: HCoV-NL63, HCoV-229E

(Alphacoronavirus), HCoV-OC43, HCoV-HKU1, SARS-CoV-1, MERS-CoV, and more

recently, SARS-CoV-2 (all these in the Betacoronavirus genus) (Guo et al., 2008). HCoV-NL63,

HCoV-229E, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-HKU1 are distributed globally, with seasonal and

geographic variations. These are low-pathogenic CoVs associated with a variety of mild upper

respiratory tract infections, occasionally affecting the lower respiratory tract, leading to

pneumonia, bronchiolitis, or both. Nonetheless, in the last two decades, highly pathogenic,

zoonotic CoVs emerged. These are SARS-CoV-1, which emerged in China in 2002 (WHO,

2020). MERS-CoV, which was first detected in Saudi Arabia in 2012 and SARS-CoV-2

6
identified in China in 2019 (WHO, 2020). These CoVs are highly pathogenic and may cause

lethal disease, with variable mortality rates of about 10% for SARS-CoV-1, 34% for MERS-

CoV, and from 1 to 7% for SARS-CoV-2. The epidemic of SARS-CoV-1 affected 26 countries,

and more than 8,000 cases were reported, while MERS-CoV was identified in 27 countries, with

more than 80% of the 2,494 cases reported in Saudi Arabia. Currently, SARS-CoV-1 is not

detected in any region of the world, and MERS-CoV cases are sporadically reported in Saudi

Arabia. SARS-CoV-2, on the other hand, is currently at epidemic peaks in many regions, with

exponential growth of case numbers and fatalities globally. Coronaviridae species affecting host

species other than humans have been reported, causing respiratory, gastrointestinal, liver, kidney,

or neurological diseases in a variety of domestic and wild animals, with no human infection by

these coronaviruses ever reported. Among companion animals, canine coronavirus (CCoV) and

feline coronavirus (FCoV) belong to the species Alphacoronavirus 1 with two serotypes (I and

II), each occurring as either a low-virulence biotype that causes mild to silent enteric infectious

and high-virulence, pantropic biotypes in dogs (a CCoV-IIa lineage) and cats (feline infectious

peritonitis virus). In addition, a betacoronavirus named canine respiratory coronavirus has been

associated with respiratory disease in dogs (Li & Du, 2006; Wang et al., 2006)).

2.2 EPIDEMIOLOGY

In December 2019, Wuhan City, Province of China, became the center of an outbreak of

novel contagious coronavirus disease (COVID-19) of unknown etiology (Huang et al., 2020; Wu

et al., 2020). Efforts are underway to continue to better understand more about transmissibility,

severity, and other features associated with COVID-19 (Adhikari et al., 2020). It appears that an

infected animal may have first transmitted the virus to humans at a seafood market (Li et al.,

2020; Zhou et al., 2020). Soon, a secondary source of infection was found to be human-to-

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human transmission of the COVID-19 virus (Nishiura et al., 2020). It became clear that the

COVID-19 infection occurs among close contacts and exposure to the virus (Li et al., 2020).

Recent studies showed that people aged ≥ 60 years and the population with poor immune

function such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease, cancer, renal, and

hepatic dysfunction are at higher risk for severe COVID-19 than children who might be less

likely to become infected or, if so, may show milder symptoms or even asymptomatic infection

(Valevan & Meyer, 2010).

Situation in numbers (by WHO Region) Total (new cases in last 24 hours) as of 10th July 2021

Globally 11 874 226 cases (204 967) 545 481 deaths (5 575)

Africa 410 744 cases (12 802) 7 559 deaths (144)

Americas 6 125 802 cases (121 117) 272 606 deaths (3 778)

Eastern Mediterranean 1 222 070 cases (17 372) 29 127 deaths (463)

Europe 2 847 887 cases (20 098) 201 853 deaths (598)

South-East Asia 1 032 167 cases (30 512) 26 808 deaths (584)

Western Pacific 234 815 cases (3 066) 7 515 deaths (8)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is spreading rapidly across China and is being

exported to a growing number of countries, some of which have seen onward transmission.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), COVID-19 continues to emerge and

represents a serious problem to public health. On 2 May of March 2020, more than three million

confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported by the World Health Organization. Of these, more than

240 000 have been fatal. About 83,959 cases were confirmed in China, and 4637 deaths were

8
confirmed (WHO, 2020). The growing global tally includes spikes in Korea, Iran, Italy, Spain,

France, and Germany. The virus is also continuing to spread to African countries including

Algeria, South Africa, Senegal, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Nigeria, and Côte d’Ivoire. In addition

to the confirmed case, Moroccan’s health ministry says that Morocco has more than 4500

confirmed cases of the coronavirus.

Figure 2: A graphical representation of the ultrastructural morphology of coronavirus (SARS-

CoV-2). Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Public Health Image Library.

Credit: Alissa Eckert, MS, Dan Higgins, MAM (Public Domain).

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2.3 Pathonogenesis

The severe symptoms of COVID-19 are associated with an increasing numbers and rate

of fatalities especially in the epidemic region of China. On January 22, 2020, the China National

Health Commission reported the details of the first 17 deaths and on January 25, 2020 the death

cases increased to 56 deaths (Wang et al., 2020). The percentage of death among the reported

2684 cases of COVID-19 was approximately 2.84% as of Jan 25, 2020 and the median age of the

deaths was 75 (range 48–89) years (Wang et al., 2020). Patients infected with COVID-19

showed higher leukocyte numbers, abnormal respiratory findings, and increased levels of plasma

pro-inflammatory cytokines. One of the COVID-19 case reports showed a patient at 5 days of

fever presented with a cough, coarse breathing sounds of both lungs, and a body temperature of

39.0 °C. The patient's sputum showed positive real-time polymerase chain reaction results that

confirmed COVID-19 infection (Lei et al., 2020). The laboratory studies showed leucopenia with

leukocyte counts of 2.91 × 10^9 cells/L of which 70.0% were neutrophils. Additionally, a value

of 16.16 mg/L of blood C-reactive protein was noted which is above the normal range (0–10

mg/L). High erythrocyte sedimentation rate and D-dimer were also observed (Lei et al., 2020).

The main pathogenesis of COVID-19 infection as a respiratory system targeting virus was severe

pneumonia, RNAaemia, combined with the incidence of ground-glass opacities, and acute

cardiac injury (Huang et al., 2020). Significantly high blood levels of cytokines and chemokines

were noted in patients with COVID-19 infection that included IL1-β, IL1RA, IL7, IL8, IL9,

IL10, basic FGF2, GCSF, GMCSF, IFNγ, IP10, MCP1, MIP1α, MIP1β, PDGFB, TNFα, and

VEGFA. Some of the severe cases that were admitted to the intensive care unit showed high

levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines including IL2, IL7, IL10, GCSF, IP10, MCP1, MIP1α, and

TNFα that are reasoned to promote disease severity (Huang et al., 2020).

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2.4 Coronavirus as emerging / reemerging infectious agent

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus (SARS-COV) though now called

COVID-19 which is referred to as novel virus caused the first major pandemic noted in 1918 in

human, 1930’s in animals and recorded in humans again in the 1960’s, then in 2003, in 1997 and

now in 2020 after 100 years. Cheng and co Scientists (Cheng et al., 2007) predicted the

reemergence of the disease and here it is with new name COVID-19 when they posited that

increased demand for games animals as sources of protein in China without adequate biosecurity

measures may lead to escape of virus to humans. Consequently, SARS-COV-2 (COVID-19) has

the capacity for human-to-human transmission. Also, there are inadequate hospital infections and

control measures and poor awareness on the novel virus leading to fast spread across the globe

through international travels. This is where we are SARS-COV-2 has returned and fully

introduced with mutation, amplification, and transmission in such a dangerous virus called

COVID-19.

Coronavirus is in the family of RNA viruses that infect birds and many mammals

including humans. The viruses cause illnesses that range from common cold to more severe

respiratory diseases and rarely gastroenteritis. COVID-19 is caused by an emerging strain of

SARS-COV-2 that is novel in humans, though, belongs to severe acute respiratory syndrome

(SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), for which can be referred as zoonotic in

transmission and person- to-person transmission (Hamming et al 2004).

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 CHAPTER THREE

3.1 The Biological Threat of Coronavirus

Bearing in mind that zoonotic virus and other microorganisms could be used for

biological threat such as bio-weapons, there should be a global effort to curtail the use of

COVID-19 as a bio-weapon. Bioterrorism is a form of the terrorism where there is intentional

release of biological materials or agents such as viruses, bacteria, fungi or germs to cause harm,

illness or death of people, livestock and crops. It is an unlawful use of microorganisms to inflict

various forms of harmful incidence or injuries to human, whole population and environment

(Etukudoh et al., 2020). Considering the fact that various research laboratories that have Basic

safety laboratory (BSL) such as BSL-3 (P3) or BSL-4 (P4) may have possible leakage of

pathogens from such laboratories and can as well be a potential way to develop some biological

weapons (Cyranoski, 2017), which can become a threat to humanity. Notwithstanding, U.S.

intelligence has warned that the safety risks of such laboratories should still be given attention to

avoid spread of bio-particles in form of diseases or pandemic (Rogin, 2020). This position

especially with regards to COVID-19 is necessary considering that many have died because of

human made plaques in form of bioweapons in the past (Yan-jun, 2018). WHO classified

coronavirus is a zoonotic virus. The result of phylogenetic analyses revealed the genomic

sequence that bats appear to be the reservoir of COVID-19 (WHO, 2019). However, the

intermediate hosts have not yet been identified. Game animals, dogs, camels, cats and so on have

been suggested host though not confirmed especially with the current COVID-19 pandemic.

Many questions are still flying on the biological potentials of COVID-19 (Dehghami, 2020).

Even though biological warfare is considered a “weapon of mass destruction” and is

prohibited by a treaty drafted by the 1972 United Nations Biological Weapons Convention

12
(BWC), not all adversaries adhere to these standards. Terrorist groups and covert operations have

utilized biological weapons for small operations because the actors, by nature, are either non-

eligible to ratify the treaty or would not do so if they could. Although there have been no

intentional large scale attacks, especially by adversarial nation states, this is not guaranteed to be

the case in the future (NRC, 2020). The BWC does not prohibit ratified nations from having

pathogens or toxins for peaceful purposes, such as the development of vaccines. After the natural

outbreak of smallpox and its subsequent eradication accomplished by the World Health

Organization in 1980, less virulent poxviruses have continued to be used in a variety of

laboratories for research and development of vaccines for a variety of diseases. The original,

more deadly strain of smallpox has been retained at two facilities in Russia and Atlanta.4

Because smallpox’s virology makes it an ideal biological weapon, the samples in Atlanta and

Russia offer defense through researching countermeasures should an attack occur and

simultaneously provide a repository from which a biological weapon can be acquired.

“Deterrence” and “defense” are two concepts which are typically described in terms of nuclear

warfare, but they can also be applied to national security from a biological attack. Deterrence is

the ability to prevent an adversary from taking some action during peacetime (Gronvall, 2016).

For biological warfare deterrence, vaccines and preventative medicine measures prevent

susceptibility to a microbe. For a largely vaccinated and/or health-conscious population, the costs

of production, storage, and dissemination of a bioweapon greatly outweighs the rare chance of

the target contracting the disease. New Zealand’s robust public health measures, citizen

compliance and continued efforts to sustain a caseload under 20 since April is a strong deterrent

for biological attack (Lyon 2021) Defense mechanisms decrease the effectiveness of the attack,

putting a high cost-to-benefit burden on the adversary. A defense measure for bioterrorism would

13
be an adequate medical treatment response to casualties of the bioweapon, decreasing mortality

and the overall effectiveness of the weapon. The novel SARS-CoV-2 has several characteristics

of an ideal biological weapon, including high transmission rate, long incubation period, airborne

transmission, and significant morbidity/ mortality (Borro et al., 2002). In fact, early in the

pandemic, suspicion was cast that the virus was being developed as a biological weapon by a

laboratory in Wuhan, China. Although these allegation have been deemed conspiracy theories as

a result of misinformation operations, the resulting pandemic and the panicked public share

similarities to a bioterror attack. The events occurring within the USA during the coronavirus

disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic create a global narrative on how we respond to a biological

crisis. The 2018 NBS emphasized the continued threat of biological weapons to national security

and identified the need to deter and defend against bioterrorism acts (Zaki et al., 2012).

3.1.1 Personal Protective Equipment Shortage

The 2018 NBS mandates having a robust mobilization of PPE for frontline healthcare

workers and an adequate communication plan on preventative health measures for the general

public in the event of an attack (Trump, 2020). The ability to provide sufficient quantities of PPE

for medical personnel is a vital defense tactic as it increases the efficiency of the healthcare

system to treat casualties in response to a biological outbreak. Having the ability to mobilize

these resources to hospitals strengthens bioterror deterrence by demonstrating to a potential

adversary that a bioterror attack would have a limited effect on a population given the healthcare

preparedness. As conflicting information was published across multiple media platforms from

January to March, panic spread that the virus was more dangerous than originally believed.

Citizens flooded stores in town and online, buying “essential items” in preparation for a

lockdown. Items such as masks, gloves, and sanitizers were out of stock everywhere, including

14
healthcare supply chains. More importantly, citizens heard N95 masks could prevent contracting

the virus, suddenly increasing N95 demand. Demand exceeded supply quickly, and healthcare

workers began complaining of the nation-wide shortage of appropriate PPE required to care for

infected patients (Fitzpatrick, 2020). The inability to acquire necessary PPE supplies due to

crippled supply chains and general public hoarding caused a ripple effect within the healthcare

system. As a result, hospitals began to institute resource conservation measures attempting to

extend the life of supplies intended for one-time use. These PPE conservation measures,

however, were interpreted by some healthcare workers as putting their lives in jeopardy and

instigated lobbying and campaigning for government involvement. News reports flourished of

disgruntled healthcare workers who were at risk of infection due to a lack of PPE.

3.1.2 Anti-Vaccination Movements

Non-compliance with recommended public health and protective measures, including

vaccines, also cripples our nation’s biodefense. Public health measures such as social distancing,

aggressive sanitation, and mask mandates are examples of defense tactics for the COVID-19

pandemic. The individualistic U.S. culture fueled widespread non-compliance with these

measures and has had significant effect on our ability to “flatten the curve” compared to other

countries. The preference for “freedom…without interference from the state” is present in 58%

of U.S. citizens, compared to 30-38% of European countries (King, 2020). The USA’s inability

to uniformly employ these measures and decrease the virus spread compared to other countries

signals to adversaries a weakness in our defense to decrease the effects of a biological outbreak.

Furthermore, the speculation and conspiracy theories surrounding COVID-19 vaccines suggest

an inevitable resistance to receiving the vaccine when available. Resistance to vaccinations is

15
nothing new and caused challenges for vaccination against smallpox in the 19th-century U.K.

epidemic. Then in 2019, the U.S. measles outbreak was amplified by anti-vaxxer campaigns.

Since early in the COVID-19 pandemic, social media posts have warned that future

coronavirus vaccines contain either tracking devices for the U.S. government or toxic chemicals

(Charpentrat, 2020) This unopposed and contagious anti-vax movement directly affects future

biological deterrence because our adversaries know that the population will not be universally

compliant with vaccination and will be susceptible to certain pathogens. Recent polls indicate

that one-third of U.S. citizens, compared to 14% of U.K. citizens, would avoid receiving a

SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, even if available and affordable. A poor vaccination rate increases a

population’s disease susceptibility and decreases biological weapon deterrence by denial. The

anti-vaccination movement has caught traction from massive information operations and

propaganda on multiple media platforms. Since May 2020, anti-vaxxers have been propagating

lies about the side effects of the coronavirus vaccine, but as of June, the Centers for Disease

Control, which is responsible for vaccine education, had only a “plan” to counter such anti-

vaccine campaigns (Cohen, 2020). When the first vaccines were being administered to healthcare

workers in the USA in December 2020, multiple social media efforts were started to promote the

vaccine. Hashtags such as #vaxup, #IGotTheShot, #vaccineswork, and many more were used

with social media posts of doctors, nurses, and other medical personnel receiving their vaccine.

Some posts continued with threads of updates on any side effects encountered to quell public

concerns. Information operations such as these may be more effective to counter the anti-

vaccination propaganda than government-sponsored campaigns and require further research by

public health officials (Charpentrat, 2020).

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3.1.3 Department of Defense (DOD) Pandemic Response

From the beginning of the pandemic, the DoD has taken measures to decrease operational

vulnerability and bolster pandemic response capabilities. Efforts such as developing COVID-19

evacuation teams and delivering medical supplies abroad demonstrate flexibility and innovation

of the military system to respond to a complex medical problem (Zaki et al., 2012). These

efforts’ successes increase the capacity to care for biological warfare victims and increase the

relative gains compared to potential adversaries. In calculating cost-to-benefit ratio of an attack,

differences in the ability to adequately treat and recover bioweapon patients create a relative loss

between conflicting forces. The use of a biological weapon presents a risk to both sides of a

conflict as containment of a bioweapon is difficult. The force with a more robust and effective

medical system will have a lower casualty rate, can maintain operational capacity longer, and has

better defense against a biological attack. If an adversary perceives a target to have a stronger

medical defense capability, the adversary’s potential relative loss of casualties will increase the

cost-to-benefit ratio, providing bioweapon deterrence (King, 2020)

The DoD made large contributions to the COVID-19 pandemic response, including

medical evacuation and international transport of PPE supplies. Unfortunately, the Comfort’s

deployment to New York City overshadowed other success stories and treatment advancements

by the DoD medical system. The DoD must advertise the ability of the military to treat and

evacuate COVID-19 patients without increasing exposure to medical personnel. This capability

demonstrates the agility of our forces to respond to a challenge such as a bioterrorism casualty,

suggesting such tactics would not have as profound an effect as desired by an adversary. Military

medicine personnel involved with the DoD’s COVID-19 response need to share success stories,

17
lessons learned, and new procedure standards through medical conferences, scholarly articles,

and public affairs platforms (Clark 2018)

3.2 COVID-19 A NATURAL INFECTION

The first human cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus causing

COVID-19, subsequently named SARS-CoV-2 were first reported by officials in Wuhan City,

China, in December 2019. Retrospective investigations by Chinese authorities have identified

human cases with onset of symptoms in early December 2019. While some of the earliest known

cases had a link to a wholesale food market in Wuhan, some did not. Many of the initial patients

were stall owners, market employees, or regular visitors to this market. Environmental samples

taken from this market in December 2019 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, further suggesting

that the market in Wuhan City was the source of this outbreak or played a role in the initial

amplification of the outbreak (Van et al., 2008). The market was closed on 1 January 2020.

SARS-CoV-2 was identified in early January and its genetic sequence shared publicly on 11-12

January. The full genetic sequence of SARS-CoV-2 from the early human cases and the

sequences of many other virus isolated from human cases from China and all over the world

since then show that SARS-CoV-2 has an ecological origin in bat populations. All available

evidence to date suggests that the virus has a natural animal origin and is not a manipulated or

constructed virus. Many researchers have been able to look at the genomic features of SARS-

CoV-2 and have found that evidence does not support that SARS-CoV-2 is a laboratory construct

(Sia et al., 2020) If it were a constructed virus, its genomic sequence would show a mix of

known elements. This is not the case. Another coronavirus, SARS-CoV-1, the cause of the

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003, was also closely related to other

coronaviruses isolated from bats. These close genetic relations of SARS-CoV-1, SARSCoV-2

18
and other coronaviruses, suggest that they all have their ecological origin in bat populations.

Many of these coronaviruses can also infect several animal species. For example, SARS-CoV-1

infected civet cats and then humans, while the virus causing the Middle East Respiratory

Syndrome (MERS-CoV) is found in dromedary camels, and has continued to infect humans

since 2012. All available evidence for COVID-19 suggests that SARS-CoV-2 has a zoonotic

source. Since there is usually limited close contact between humans and bats, it is more likely

that transmission of the virus to humans happened through another animal species, one that is

more likely to be handled by humans. This intermediate animal host or zoonotic source could be

a domestic animal, a wild animal, or a domesticated wild animal and, as of yet, has not been

identified. All the published genetic sequences of SARS-CoV-2 isolated from human cases are

very similar. This suggests that the start of the outbreak resulted from a single point introduction

in the human population around the time that the virus was first reported in humans in Wuhan,

China in December 2019 (Lau et al., 2020).

A number of investigations to better understand the source of the outbreak in China are

currently underway or planned, including investigations of human cases with symptom onset in

and around Wuhan in late 2019, environmental sampling from markets and farms in areas where

the first human cases were identified, and detailed records on the source and type of wildlife

species and farmed animals sold in these markets. Results from these studies are essential to

preventing further zoonotic introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into the human population. WHO

continues to collaborate with animal health and human health experts, Member States, and other

partners to identify gaps and research priorities for the control of COVID-19, including the

eventual identification of the source of the virus in China (Kin et al., 2020).

19
 COVID-19 is the third highly pathogenic human coronavirus disease to date, although

less deadly than SARS and MERS, the rapid spreading of this highly contagious disease has

posed the severest threat to global health in this century. The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has lasted

for more than half a year now, and it is likely that this emerging virus will establish a niche in

humans and coexist with us for a long time166. Before clinically approved vaccines are widely

available, there is no better way to protect us from SARS-CoV-2 than personal preventive

behaviour such as social distancing and wearing masks, and public health measures, including

active testing, case tracing and restrictions on social gatherings. Despite a flood of SARS-CoV-2

research published every week, current knowledge of this novel coronavirus is just the tip of the

iceberg. The animal origin and cross-species infection route of SARS-CoV-2 are yet to be

uncovered. The molecular mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 infection pathogenesis and virus–host

interactions remain largely unclear. Intensive studies on these virological profiles of SARS-CoV-

2 will provide the basis for the development of preventive and therapeutic strategies against

COVID-19. Moreover, continued genomic monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 in new cases is needed

worldwide, as it is important to promptly identify any mutation that may result in phenotypic

changes of the virus. Finally, COVID-19 is challenging all human beings. Tackling this epidemic

is a long-term job which requires efforts of every individual with international collaboration by

scientists, authorities and the public (Richard et al., 2020; Kin et al., 2020; Shi et al., 2020).

20
 CHAPTER FOUR

4.1 CONCLUSION

India has launched a full-scale investigation against China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology.

The Indian government has ordered an inquiry into a study conducted in the Northeastern state of

Nagaland (close to China) by researchers from the U.S., China and India on bats and humans

carrying antibodies to deadly viruses like Ebola. We must have an investigation of the outbreak

in Wuhan. The Chinese must grant the world total transparency. The truth must come out. If

Chinese officials are innocent, they have nothing to hide. If they are guilty, they will refuse to

cooperate. The real concern here is whether the rest of the world has the courage to demand a

real and thorough investigation. We need to be fearless in this demand and not allow “economic

interests” to play a coy and dishonest game of denial. We need an honest inquiry. We need it

now. The corrupt establishment will do anything to suppress critical sites like the Burning

Platform, etc., from revealing the truth. The corporate media does this by demonetizing sites like

mine by blackballing the site from advertising revenue (Fong et al. 2020).

SARS-CoV-2 was found January 2020 in Wuhan, China, but it seems to have been born

in November 2019 or a bit earlier. It is genetically most similar (96.3%) to RaTG13 CoV

sampled from a bat in Yunnan, China, in 2013, but there is also similarity (91.2%) with Malaya

pangolin CoV viruses from Guadong, China. The pre-print suggests that Covid-19 is a cross-

species recombination between the bat and the Malaya pangolin CoVs. The preprint suggests that

a bat CoV virus obtained the ability to infect humans from a pangolin CoV via cross-species

recombination in ORF1a and S genes. Pangolins in China are originally from Malaya, but they

seem to have been infected by CoV in China. This is shown by pangolins in two different

21
districts of China having different strains of CoV. Indeed, if pangolins got CoV form bats, it

could only be from Chinese bats. According to King, (2020) the S gene in pangolin CoV closely

resembles the S gene from SARS-CoV-2, though in other respect SARS-CoV-2 resembles bat

CoV. Then a question is where from pangolins, recently taken to China, got the S gene.

Obviously, recombination cannot answer this problem, unless another animal is found that

originally had the S gene. This S gene of SARS-CoV-2 resembles the S gene in SARS-CoV, thus

the answer may be that it is from SARS-CoV, but SARS died out and the gene is not completely

identical. Genetic engineering as an answer does not have this problem.

I think the best solution is that there is some mechanism that we do not know. It is the

same problem that there always is with the birth of a new species: in order to get a new species

some gene(s) need to change much. Point mutations cannot do it because if there is a bit more

mutations the gene does not work. Then it becomes a pseudogene and there has to be a copy of

the original gene in the genome to do the tasks this gene was supposed to do. As a pseudogene

the gene is not working and natural selection cannot act on it. Thus, it can only mutate randomly

until it by a lucky chance turns into a gene that can again do something useful and will be turned

on. Random mutations seldom lead to anything that works. This problem there is, though Darwin

believed that he solved it with natural selection, but selection works only with active genes, not

inactive pseudogenes. The problem appears in CoVs in the S gene. In order to jump from one

species to another, the S gene needs larger changes, some four insertations or recombination

taking a whole piece. But where do you take the new piece from in the first species jumping

case? Nevertheless, viruses do jump from one species to another. This requires a new

mechanism, or if you like, you can shift it to God's punishment, to the coming end-of-the-times

and so on. Surely, it is coming, doubt it not. With viruses random mutations just might produce

22
enough changes to create a significantly different S gene because a virus population can be very

large, but even genetics do not dare to suggest this possibility. Thus, Solete et al., (2020) prefers

to suggest recombination with a pangolin CoV and recombination or genetic engineering with

HIV. It is simply so that a claim that a successful step is a sequence of many random mutations

without any guiding principle of selection is just too unbelievable, not only for mathematicians

but also for genetics.

It is suspicious that three new deadly coronaviruses appeared in such a short time. It is

also true that phylogenetic trees of SARS-CoV-2 (each author of the tree writes it a bit

differently) show that many early strains of the virus were found in the USA. It may be that

SARS-CoV-2 was man-made. But for sure the DNA virus variola was not genetically engineered

when it jumped to humans around 2000 BC in the Horn of Africa. Later variola was human

specific. There had to be a significant change in the genome of the virus for it to do the jump to

humans. Viruses do these jumps. The real problem is not whether SARS-CoV-2 was man-made

or a result of recombination. The real problem is to find a mathematically sound explanation how

species specific viruses can jump from one species to another. It requires a larger change in the

genome and it is unclear how this can happen in a finite time. There is only a mathematically

unsound explanation that it is by evolution, natural selection and random mutations. But as was

the case in theoretical physics when Max Planck gave a mathematically unsound derivation for

blackbody radiation, unsound explanations are not acceptable. In Planck's case a sound

derivation was later found, in the evolution theory there seems to be no effort to look for any

sound explanations. Thus, we have suggestions that Covid-19 was genetically engineered by one

of the possible culprits.

23
4.2 RECOMMENDATION

1. The overt difference between The Biological Weapons Convention and the Natural

infection lies in its enforceability as the latter has an implementing agency, that is, The

Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. The proposals for the

establishment of an Organization for the Prohibition of Biological Weapons should be

looked into urgently and made a reality.

2. International law should be viewed as a chain with treaties, case law, customary

international law, general principles of law constituting the interlocking components. The

essence of this is such that the lacuna in the Biological Weapons Convention is filled by

recourse to the various Human Rights Treaties and its regimes ensuring its enforceability

or to International Humanitarian Law. The recent trend seems to be a blurring of the lines

of distinction between human rights law and international humanitarian law70. There

seems to be no reason why the same step cannot be applicable here. This is why the step

India has taken by bringing a complaint71 to the Complaint Procedure Unit of the United

Nations Human Rights Council accusing China of committing “grave offences against

the humanity throughout the world” by the use of Coronavirus as an economic weapon or

under the International Health Regulations of the World Health Organization.

3. The restriction in the Biological Weapons Convention as regards the applicability of the

Convention to State actors should be removed and extended to include situations of

internal conflict.

4. The call of the General Assembly 72 to State Parties to the Biological Weapons

Convention to implement the recommendations taken at the Seventh and Eight Review

Conferences should be heeded. This is important because at these Conferences, it was

24
recommended, among other things, that the following should be done to ensure

effectiveness of the Biological Weapons Convention

25
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