Goldin y Katz Why The United States
Goldin y Katz Why The United States
Goldin y Katz Why The United States
Claudia Goldin
Harvard University and the NBER
and
Lawrence F. Katz
Harvard University and the NBER
This paper is a revised version of our presentation at a Rochester Conference in honor of Stanley
Engerman, which in turn was a revised version of NBER Working Paper no. 6144. We
acknowledge research support from the Spencer Foundation (Major Grant no. 200200007) and
the National Science Foundation (Grant no. SBR199515216). We thank the many research
assistants who assisted with cross-country data and those who assembled the state- and city-level
secondary school data. Robert Whaples generously provided some of the 1910 and 1920 city
data. Frank Lewis provided helpful comments on the conference paper. A fuller version of the
ideas in this paper can be found in Chapters 5 and 6 of Goldin and Katz (2008).
In the first several decades of the twentieth century, the United States pulled far ahead of
all other countries in the education of its youth. It underwent what was then and now termed the
“high school movement,” a feat most other western nations would achieve some 30 to 50 years
later. We address how the “second transformation” of American education occurred and what
aspects of the society, economy, and political structure enabled the United States to lead the
percent of 18-year olds had high school diplomas in 1910, but more than 50 percent did by 1940
(see Figure 1). The transformation was even more rapid in many non-southern states and cities.
Secondary-school enrollment and graduation rates, in most northern and western states,
increased so rapidly that by the mid-1930s rates were as high as they would be by 1960. The
high school movement set the United States far ahead of all other nations in its human capital
stock.2
Earlier in its history, the United States had also taken a commanding position in
education. During the mid-nineteenth century, America surpassed the impressive enrollment
levels achieved in Germany and took the lead in primary (grammar, elementary, or common)
school education (Easterlin 1981). But by the turn of the twentieth century, various European
countries had narrowed their educational gap with the United States (Lindert 2004). As the high
school movement took root in America, however, the wide educational lead of the United States
Educational differences between youths in the United States and those in many European
countries would not again be reduced for some time and in many cases have been narrowed only
1
recently. Differences in formal schooling rates for older youths (15 to 19 years old) between
various European countries and the United States were substantial in the mid-1950s.3 As can be
seen in Figure 2, the U.S. secondary school enrollment rate for older youths in 1955 was just
below 80 percent. No European country, however, had a full-time general schooling rate for
These substantial differences in full-time formal schooling are only slightly reduced by
including youths enrolled in full-time technical programs (the two bottom portions of the
histogram bar). With this addition, no European country had a general and technical full-time
enrollment rate exceeding 40 percent. To make the point even more extreme, the wide U.S. lead
in education remains even after including for those in part-time technical programs (the entire
histogram bar). The relative stock of educated workers, therefore, was considerably greater in
the United States than in most European countries until the 1970s and even to the 1980s.4
We examine the expansion of U.S. secondary schooling by exploiting the wide variation
in education, income, wealth, and economic and demographic structure across states and cities
from 1910 to 1940. In 1928—the approximate mid-point of the period—the ratio of the
secondary school graduation rate at the top decile to that at the bottom decile of states was about
three, as was the ratio for income per capita.5 These are large differences and span those found
across many of the other countries of the developed world over the same period. The range of
found in the United States over this period is similar to that found across a wide group of
U.S. states and cities may shed light on the reasons the U.S. moved to the forefront of
2
educational attainment in the first half of the twentieth century. The various factors that account
for the variation in schooling rates across U.S. states and cities appear also to have been
important in explaining differences between Europe and the United States (and Canada) and
The areas of the United States that led in secondary school education, we will show, had
higher taxable wealth per capita, greater per capita income, higher proportions of their
population that were older, and a tighter distribution of wealth and income.8 As well, a lower
proportion of their total employment was in manufacturing and a lower share was foreign born
and Catholic. Homogeneity of economic and social condition and the social stability of
community fostered the extension of education to the secondary school level, given a modicum
of income or wealth.
Also of importance was the state’s prior commitment to publicly funded colleges because
the existence of inexpensive and universally available higher education increased the return to
high school graduation. The state university system, moreover, took an active interest in both the
quality and quantity of secondary school students for they were their potential clients. More
Some of the explanatory variables that we find to be significant are consistent with a
simple model of educational investment by families. Where the opportunity cost of schooling
was high and family income or wealth was low, education, not surprisingly, lagged. But because
itself is insufficient. A framework of public choice is also needed. The importance of small
districts and many of them, homogeneity of tastes for education, and a narrow distribution of
3
income or wealth come into focus in the public choice framework.
In order to extend education to the secondary level, schools had to be built and teachers
had to be hired. These actions were not based simply on the aggregation of individual family
choices concerning whether or not to allow children to attend school. Rather the decision was
whether a school district, township, county, or state would tax everyone regardless whether they
had children who would attend the school. Areas with greater homogeneity of economic
condition, higher levels of wealth, and more community stability were the earliest to extend
education to the secondary level and experienced the greatest expansion during the initial years
We begin with a brief description of the high school movement in the United States and
then assess what factors explain differences in secondary schooling rates across states and cities
<A> The High School Movement in the United States: 1910 to 1940
By the first decade of the twentieth century the vast majority of American youth outside
the South attended school until they were 14-years old, and those in the northern and western
states, as in some European countries, had attained nearly universal “common schooling” of at
least six years. America was poised for a transition from the elementary and common schools to
Starting around the 1890s the demand for educated workers to staff ordinary white-collar
jobs began to soar. People even in rural areas spoke of having a high school education as a
means of succeeding in the business community and parents across diverse communities saw
4
secondary education as the premier ticket to their children’s prosperity. By the 1910s families
across America were calling for the expansion of high schools.10 America was still largely a
rural nation and parents recognized that education would enhance economic mobility in part by
Publicly supported high schools existed in the nation’s larger cities beginning in the
1820s and private academies dotted the smaller towns by the mid-nineteenth century. The high
school movement does not signify the beginning of secondary schools in America. Instead, the
movement marks an enormous expansion in the number and geographic reach of high schools,
the spread of a more uniform curriculum, and a replacement of many private high schools with
public ones.11
The first public high school in the United States was established in Boston in 1821 and
most of the larger coastal cities of the East founded public high schools soon after. Smaller cities
the mid-nineteenth century. Some academies were college preparatory schools but most were
secondary schools indistinguishable from their public counterparts, except that academies
charged fees. Some academies taught vocational skills such as bookkeeping, mechanical
drawing, and navigation that drew on academic courses, although most taught standard subjects.
The aggregate enrollment in academies is difficult to establish given the quality of the
surviving records.12 We do know, however, that the number of academies declined sharply with
the arrival of publicly funded high schools. We also know that enrollments in academies were
considerably below those of the public secondary schools that replaced them. So even though
public secondary schools displaced many private schools, the high school movement led to an
5
enormous net increase in enrollment.
What had changed in the United States in the late nineteenth century to increase the
demand for education beyond the primary years? We have shown elsewhere that the premium to
ordinary white-collar employment in the immediate pre-World War I period was high and that it
probably had been equally high throughout the latter part of the nineteenth century (Goldin 1999;
Goldin and Katz 1995, 2001). The increased scale of firms, the rise of large retail
establishments, and the emergence of various segments of the service sector increased the
Using individual-level data for 1914, we also demonstrate that the return to a high school
education was substantial. It was high even within a host of blue-collar occupations and even
within farming.13 That is, the return to education did not accrue only to those who were enabled
to shift from manual occupations to white-collar ones. Rather, the high return also existed within
blue-collar and white-collar jobs. Other work of ours has shown that the newer and
technologically innovative industries of the early twentieth century employed a far larger fraction
of high school graduates in their blue-collar labor forces than did other industries of the day
Although secondary schools were present in almost all large U.S. cities and in many
smaller towns before 1900, the curriculum was not yet standardized. Secondary schools in large
cities often had close connections with local universities or colleges and trained students to pass
their entrance exams. Almost half of all high school graduates in 1910 expressed an intention to
continue their studies in a four-year college or another form of higher education (e.g., in teaching
or normal schools, library schools, and nursing schools). The fraction that actually entered some
6
degree-granting institution was probably around 35 to 40 percent. Both percentages declined
considerably by the mid-1930s as high school enrollments soared (Goldin 1998, table 2).14 The
modern high school that we now know—with its diverse curriculum, vocational courses,
tracking, electives, 45-minute periods—was invented in America during the first decades of the
twentieth century (see Krug 1964, 1972). The junior high school also originated in this era—in
1909 to be precise—as a means to keep 14-year olds in school for an additional year by offering
vocational training and a diploma.15 Americans devised the secondary school for the masses to
Figure 1 shows the extraordinary rise in secondary schooling for the entire United States
from 1910 to 1940. But this graph does not reveal the differing patterns across regions. The
1940 U.S. population census, the first to include information on educational attainment, could be
used to address the issue. But its schooling data for older cohorts are somewhat suspect and have
been shown to substantially overstate the numbers claiming to have graduated from secondary
school.16 To produce state figures and to check the reliability of the national series we have
used, instead, the contemporaneous reports of state and federal departments of education to
construct the number of students enrolled and graduated. The data were assembled as part of a
The schooling data include all students in grades nine through twelve in public and
private secondary schools, as well as those in the preparatory departments of colleges and
universities.17 For the state-level data we have two measures: enrollments and number of
graduates.18 Each measure is transformed into a rate by dividing by the relevant demographic
group.19 To conserve on space, we present the information on graduation rates only; the trends
7
and regional differences in enrollment are similar. We first summarize considerable information
by presenting time-series of the graduation rates aggregated by census divisions (Figure 3) and
As can be seen in Figure 3.A, the increase in the graduation rate in parts of the North and
West was so steep that even as early as the 1930s many states had achieved rates equal to those
of the 1950s. The national data in Figure 1 give the misleading impression that the increase in
graduation rates was more continuous and extended into the 1960s. Because the South lagged
far behind the North, the data for the entire country show a more continual increase.
The states of the South were not the only laggards. The Mid-Atlantic was the non-
southern region with the lowest graduation rates before 1940. Its three states had a more
industrial economy than the other regions included in Figure 3.A and lagging states in other
regions were also those that were more industrial (e.g., Michigan). With the onset of the Great
Depression and with the passage of National Industry Recovery Act codes (1933 to 1935)
making youth employment in manufacturing illegal, teenagers in the industrial states flocked to
high school, closing wide educational differentials among the states outside the South.
The South, as can be seen in Figure 3.B, had graduation rates that were initially the
lowest in the nation and remained low even during the period of the high school movement. But
after the 1940s secondary schooling expanded rapidly. By the 1960s the South had narrowed,
although not yet closed, the gap with other regions such as the East North Central (included in
Figure 3.B for comparison). The low graduation rates in the South before the 1950s, moreover,
were not due solely to the abysmally low education levels of the African-American population.
The white population also had far lower rates, as can be seen in the comparison with whites in
8
the South Atlantic.
Several other features in the underlying data are also worth mentioning. Although the
disaggregated data for the states begin with 1910, by necessity, estimates for the entire nation
reveal that change was slow during the preceding four decades. That is, the level in 1910 was
not much higher than it was in 1870.20 The 1910 to 1940 segment in Figure 3, therefore, can be
thought of as the rapidly rising portion of a diffusion or logistic function.21 Another point is that
World War II cut deeply into the high school graduation (and enrollment) numbers for regions
such as New England and the Pacific largely because of the relatively high wages of young
workers, not just because of the draft.22 Finally, young women went to and graduated from
secondary schools at higher rates than did young men, with the possible exception of the 1930s
At the start of the high school movement in 1910, New England was at the forefront of
secondary education, as it had been in elementary education during the nineteenth century.
Several states in the mid-section of the country, the West North Central in particular, also had
substantial schooling rates. By 1928 New England had been eclipsed by these states and by
others across the North and West. The group appears to form an “educational belt” across
America, as can be seen in the map of Figure 4. Enrollment and graduation rates in California,
Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Oregon, Washington, the Mountain states, and parts of New
England were far higher than they were in Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania,
Wisconsin, and, of course, the South. Although there was considerable catch-up by 1938
between the leaders and the more industrial states, the rankings of the states in 1928 and 1938 are
similar. We will use data from 1910, 1928, and 1938 in state-level regressions to understand the
9
correlates of the high school graduation rate.
Comparisons across states over time are facilitated by consulting Table 1, which gives
summary statistics for the graduation rate from 1910 to 1938. Both the unweighted and weighted
standard deviations of state graduation rates suggest widening dispersion.23 Table 1 reveals
growing gaps in high school education across the nation during the period of the high school
movement. Within the non-South, however, the Great Depression produced a narrowing in high
school graduation rates (see the weighted results), as the industrial states of the North narrowed
the gap between them and the states of the West and Plains.
By 1940 high schools in all regions, except the South, were fairly complete in their
geographic coverage. Given their absence in all but the larger cities in 1910, this was a
spectacular, but expensive, achievement. Most estimates show that the direct cost of educating a
high school student was twice that of an elementary-school pupil (Goldin 1998). Thus an area
that moved from universal elementary education (8 years of school) to universal secondary
An important feature of the story we will soon tell is that the areas to which high schools
spread most rapidly were among the more sparsely settled. In 1925 the average farm in Iowa had
160 acres and that in Nebraska, 330 acres (U.S. Department of Commerce 1926). Although
Iowa and Nebraska were farm-country, they were also two of the leading states in the high
school movement. Given that 50 percent of Americans were still living in rural areas in 1920,
the timing of the high school movement may not be surprising given the obvious importance of
the internal combustion engine (school buses, cars) and improved roads to the education of rural
populations.
10
The modern U.S. public high school was a quintessential American innovation: generally
free, open to all who completed eighth grade, gender neutral in admission, secular, fiscally
controlled by local governments, and a guarantor of acceptance to a state college for its
graduates, in most states. Nowhere else in the world was that the case when the U.S. high school
movement was in its early stages even though similar economic incentives in the form of wage
differentials were present in parts of Europe (Phelps Brown 1977; Piketty 2003).24
<A> Explaining Differences in High school Participation Rates across the United States
To understand the wide differences in high school attendance and graduation rates across
states we investigate the determinants of secondary school rates at the beginning of their steep
ascent. We first examine (public and private) graduation rates at the dawn of the high school
movement in 1910. We next explore the transformation in education from 1910 to 1928.
Finally, we explore the changes that took place from the eve of the Great Depression (1928) to
just before World War II (1938). A city-level data set affords a wider range of variables but
requires the use of a slightly different measure of the schooling rate.25 The motivation for all the
estimations is a standard model of human capital investment in which the educational return,
opportunity cost, and capital constraints affect private decisions. A public-choice framework is
representative individual can either work or attend high school in period 1. If he works, he earns
w1. Attending high school, the alternative, entails a direct cost of C and an opportunity cost of
w1. The individual in period 2 earns w2 ≥ w1 with no high school and E2 > w2 with high school.
11
The decision to attend high school, under lifetime income maximization and given discount rate
r, hinges on whether the discounted benefits exceed the first period costs (all measured relative to
(E 2 w 2 ) − 1 C + w 1
> .
1+ r w2
Expressed in terms of the rate of return calculation, the issue is whether the returns are greater
E2 − w 2
> 1+ r .
C + w1
Thus the schooling decision is negatively related to the opportunity cost of schooling (w1), the
direct cost (C), and the discount rate (r), and positively affected by the high school wage
This simple formulation of the educational investment decision does not, however, speak
to the public nature of most schooling. Public support for secondary school was rarely justified
on the basis of the creation of a literate citizenry, the same way that primary school was in the
nineteenth century. Public funding was, rather, rationalized on the grounds of capital-market
imperfections. Communities were groups of families at different stages of their lifecycle, and
Families (or clans) are not identical, however, and the essence of the public-goods
problem is the characterization of the majority-voting equilibrium. Rather than having all adult
family or clan members earn w2, in the absence of high school, a distribution of w2 can exist.
The problem, then, is finding a majority-voting equilibrium with respect to both public education
and the size of the (income) tax to fund it. Under many reasonable scenarios, the greater the
12
variance of w2, given its mean, the less support there will be for public secondary education and
the lower the probability that public secondary schooling will be approved by voters.28
Thus the level of income or wealth and the distribution of each should have been
important determinants of public high school education. The extent to which individuals
consider themselves members of the same community is another element of the public choice
should all have increased the support for publicly funded education.29
We postulate a reduced-form equation for the high school enrollment (or graduation) rate
HS = f [(C + w 1 )/w 2 , (E 2 /w 2 ), r, Y, σ Y , X] ,
where Y and σ Y measure the mean and dispersion of income (or wealth), and X is a vector of
variables relating to the stability, cohesion, and intergenerational propinquity of the community.
In the empirical analysis at the state level we analyze the correlates of the public and
private high school graduation rate in 1910 and 1928 and of changes in the graduation rate from
1910 to 1928 and 1928 to 1938. The variables approximate the key determinants of family-level
All youth are assumed to face the national market for white-collar employment
conditional on receiving a high school degree. In fact, the earnings of white-collar workers were
far more similar across the United States in the 1909 to 1919 period than were the earnings of
13
production workers.30 Thus, we do not include a variable for the earnings of white-collar
workers (E2 ). We do, however, include variables to account for the opportunity cost of
schooling (w1) and the (locally determined) blue-collar earnings of adults without high school
education (w2). Since employment opportunities for older youth in this period were likely to be
found in manufacturing, we approximate the opportunity cost of high school education by both
the fraction of the work force in manufacturing and the manufacturing wage.
Various measures of income and wealth (state income per capita, taxable wealth per
capita, and agricultural income per agricultural worker) proxy the household capital-constraints
and the consumption demand for education. The return to high school was probably greater
where publicly supported colleges were available and we therefore include, in the change
regression for 1910 to 1928, a variable for the public university enrollment rate in the base year.
The decision by the municipality to build and staff high schools is more complicated.
The frameworks we have cited emphasize the distribution of wealth, the stability of community,
and social distance or propinquity. The social stability of communities can be inferred, in part,
from the proportion elderly in the state. Social distance or propinquity might be proxied by
The distribution of income or wealth is a difficult variable to obtain for the period in
question. An estimate of automobile registrations per capita is a good substitute for more
obvious, but unavailable, measures. Automobile registrations per capita may seem an odd
variable given the nearly ubiquitous ownership of cars today, but in the 1920s automobile
ownership required a much higher relative level of income or wealth. Consider two income
distributions each having the same mean but different variance and for which the cutoff point for
14
automobile ownership is somewhere below the mean. The narrower distribution will have a
higher fraction of car owners among the population. Thus under certain conditions, and given
the mean of income (or wealth), the variable “automobile registrations per capita” is a good
proxy for the variance of income (or wealth). The number of automobile registrations per capita,
therefore, is an indication of the share of voters likely to be wealthy enough to favor financing an
With just 48 states in each year we must be judicious in our inclusion of variables. A
further constraint is that many of the variables are highly correlated. The fraction of the
population that is urban, foreign born, and Catholic are all strongly collinear, and each of these
variables is also collinear with the fraction of workers employed in manufacturing. Similarly,
per capita wealth, income, agricultural income, and automobile registrations are all collinear.
We use a subset of each of these groups in the regressions. Where only one of the many
variables mentioned is included, the results are robust to the inclusion of the others.32
The number of districts per youth was mentioned in the discussion of the provision of
local public goods as being potentially important. Numerous, small, fiscally independent
districts can foster secondary school expansion in its early phase. The cross-state correlation of
school districts per youth in 1932 and the high school graduation rate in1928 is 0.56. This
significant positive relationship between the density of school districts and the high graduation
rate is reflected in high school graduation regressions that control for population density or the
urban share of the population and the relationship is also maintained for states outside the South.
But the number of school districts per youth is closely related to wealth, automobile registrations
per capita, and agricultural income per farm worker. Therefore the variable is not statistically
15
significant in regressions that include these variables.
The estimations are admittedly of the reduced-form variety, but they are as a group
suggestive of the forces that both encouraged and impeded secondary-school education. Table 2
summarizes the main results. The first three of its columns give regressions where the dependent
variable is in levels for 1910 (col. 1) and 1928 (cols. 2, 3). The next three columns (cols. 4, 5, 6)
report the regressions where the dependent variable is in first-differences.33 The last two
columns report the means of the variables for 1910 (col. 7) and 1928 (col. 8).
The association between the key factors of our framework and high school graduation
rates at the start of the high school movement in 1910 is summarized in col. (1). Per capita
wealth (in 1912), the proportion older than 64 years (in 1910), the percentage of the labor force
in manufacturing (in 1910), the percentage Catholic (in 1910), and dummy variables for the
South and New England are strong predictors of high school graduation and together they
Wealth per capita (or state income per capita, or agricultural income per capita), not
surprisingly, is positively related to the high school graduation rate and the impact is reasonably
large—a shift from the 25th percentile to the 75th percentile increases the graduation rate by about
1.5 percentage points in 1910 (or by 16 percent of the mean). Having more manufacturing, on
the other hand, was a drag on education; moving from the 25th to the 75th percentile reduces the
graduation rate by 1 percentage point in 1910 (or by 12 percent of the mean). The larger the
proportion older than 64 years, the higher is the graduation rate. This strikingly strong positive
relationship at the dawn of the high school movement between high school graduation rates and
fraction of older persons in the population (a raw correlation of 0.79) is illustrated in Figure 5.A.
16
We attribute the effect to the stability of community and not to differential fertility or
Our finding that educational attainment is positively related to the fraction of older
persons in the state, and thus to the persistence of population, is the reverse of the conclusion
from several studies using current data (e.g., Poterba 1997). There is good reason for the
difference. Older citizens today are highly mobile as a group. A large fraction live far away
from their community of origin and as a political unit they appear to have far less interest in the
use of public resources to enhance education than did those early in the twentieth century who
In col. (2) of Table 2 we examine the determinants of high school graduation rates in
1928 and find results similar to those for 1910, when converted into elasticities. But for 1928 we
can include variables that we cannot for 1910 and they add substantially to the story. The most
interesting of the new variables is automobile registrations per capita (in 1930).
Automobile registrations per capita exhibits a strong positive relationship to the high
school graduation rate, even when a direct measure of per capita wealth is included. The
specification in col. (2) implies that increasing auto registrations per capita from the 25th
percentile to the 75th percentile increases the graduation rate by 5 percentage points (or by 17
percent of the mean level in 1928).35 Automobile registrations per capita is a key explanatory
variable and speaks to the importance of a more equal distribution of wealth, given its mean, in
the provision of education as a public good.36 The states with the most automobile registrations
per capita in 1930—California, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and Nevada —were all at the high end
17
Also of interest are manufacturing as a share of employment, the manufacturing wage,
and their interaction as shown in Table 2, col. (3). The 1910 results show that a large
manufacturing sector was a potent deterrent to high school graduation. For the 1928 regression
we can add the manufacturing wage and the interaction between it and the size of the
manufacturing sector. Having a greater percentage of the labor force in manufacturing, given the
manufacturing wage, was a drag on education, as we found in the 1910 analysis. But in the 1928
analysis we can see that the relationship holds only when the wage is high enough, in this case
above the mean. Similarly, a higher manufacturing wage was not an impediment to education
until the percentage of the labor force in manufacturing exceeded its mean. The lowest
graduation rates, outside the South were found in the industrial states with relatively high
manufacturing wages such as New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania. The opportunity cost
of education in these states was high and the availability of manufacturing jobs was substantial
We have also estimated a state fixed-effects model (not shown) that pools data from
1910, 1920, and 1930. We find results similar to the levels regressions in cols. (1), (2), and (3).38
Auto registrations per capita and the percentage older than 64 years remain strongly and
positively related to the state graduation rate. Percentage Catholic and the manufacturing
employment share variables have coefficients similar to those in the cross-section regressions but
The first difference regression for 1910 to 1928, given in col. (4), reinforces the
interpretation of many of the variables that featured in the levels regression—with one addition
and one exception. The independent variables for the difference regressions capture the initial
18
conditions in a state. More wealth in 1910, for example, hastened the growth of high schools
from 1910 to 1928 and a greater share of the labor force in manufacturing (in 1910) slowed it.
The positive relationship between (log) per capita wealth at the start of the high school
movement and the expansion of high schools from 1910 to 1928 can be seen in Figure 5.C.
We add to the levels results (see col. 4) the fraction of youth in the state who attended
public colleges and universities in 1910, which is a predetermined variable in the difference
regression and has a strong positive effect on the high school graduation rate. It appears that the
returns to high school were higher in states with large publicly funded institutions of higher
education (see also Figure 5.D), although we cannot entirely rule out an explanation based on
differences in tastes for education. The only variable to change signs in the difference regression
compared with the levels regression is the percentage older than 64 years.
Lastly, we analyze the change during the 1930s. The estimation in col. (5) is configured
similarly to that in col. (4) for the 1910s and 1920s. Much appears to have been altered by the
1930s. Wealth remains an important determinant, but the fraction of the labor force in
manufacturing no longer has a strong negative effect. The sparse specification in col. (6) focuses
on factors unique to the Great Depression and adds the change in the unemployment rate from
1930 to 1940.39 High school graduation rates during the Great Depression increased the most in
states that underwent the largest increases in unemployment, given the level of income, and they
also increased the most for the leading manufacturing states. The 1930s produced greater
eliminating jobs that had once employed teenagers. Ironically, the Great Depression may have
19
We have not yet mentioned state legal constraints, such as compulsory education and
child labor laws, the expansions of which during the Progressive Era are considered by many to
have been crucial in extending education into the teenage years. These laws were highly
complex. The maximum age of compulsory education was often not the binding constraint.
Rather, youths in most states were excused from school if they were employed and met age and
education requirements.40
Recent work on whether these laws spurred the high school movement has concluded that
compulsory education laws were by themselves ineffective in increasing years of schooling, but
when combined with child labor laws they had a positive, albeit modest, effect.41 A prior
literature had argued similarly that compulsory education laws were passed in states that already
had extensive school attendance.42 The econometric evidence to date leads us to conclude that
although the laws had some impact on the education of teenagers, their influence on high school
Less attention has been paid to another set of state laws that enabled early high school
expansion. A somewhat forgotten group of laws, often labeled “free tuition” legislation, appear
to have been instrumental in the early expansion of high schools in the more sparsely settled
states of the Midwest and West. These laws mandated that school districts that did not maintain
their own secondary schools pay the tuition of resident youths to attend school in neighboring
districts that did. Prior to the adoption of these laws, parents had to pay tuition to these schools.
Many western states adopted free tuition laws of various types from 1907 to the 1920s, some of
which applied to all districts in the state whereas others constrained only the districts of counties
that approved the laws (e.g., Nebraska in 1907 and Iowa in 1913 were both statewide; California
20
in 1915 was at the county level).44
At the start of the high school movement in 1910, Americans were still a predominantly
rural people. Half lived in places that were either unincorporated or had fewer than 1,000
persons. Just one-third lived in cities of more than 25,000. The remaining sixth lived in small
cities and villages. Young people who lived in towns and villages had the highest school rates in
both 1910 and 1920. Somewhat lower were the school rates youth in the open country and in
small cities, and lower still were those of youth residing in cities with populations exceeding
25,000. Lowest of all were the school rates of youth in the largest cities.45
Cities provide another laboratory to study the transition to mass secondary school. Our
data contain a wider group of variables than that for the states, and the number of observations is
almost five times as large. Our data set contains the 289 cities with populations exceeding
10,000 in 1910.46 As in the state-level analysis, a simple human-capital model motivates the
selection of variables and the estimation is, once again, of a reduced-form nature. The dependent
variable, which is from the U.S. population census, differs from the one we used in the state-
level analysis and refers to the attendance of youth (15 to 17, or 16 to 17-years old) in any
school. Thus the dependent variable does not include attendance in secondary schools alone and
could include sporadic attendance in various types of schools. Even though these data generally
overstate the actual rate of school attendance among youths, they provide reasonable measures of
The city-level regressions (Table 3) contain results that are similar in many respects to
21
those at the state-level. Manufacturing, measured by the fraction of production workers in the
population, has a strong negative effect on school going, and the importance of particular
industries (e.g., textiles, clothing) known to have hired the less skilled and child workers add to
the effect. The variable indicating the percentage child workers in manufacturing in 1910,
speaks to the effect of certain industries on the opportunity cost of youth, the capital-constraints
of parents, and possible myopia regarding education common in certain industrial settings.
The fraction foreign born for 1910, and Catholic for the other two years, are strongly and
negatively related to attendance.48 Because the dependent variable includes all schools,
parochial as well as public, the effect cannot be due to the use of private schools by Catholics
The role of race is complicated. In 1910 and 1920 the fraction of youth attending school
was similar by race in southern cities, where the majority of blacks lived. But the quality of
education for blacks in the South was considerably lower than for whites and it is likely that the
fraction attending school by age greatly overstates the grades eventually attained.49 By 1930
many non-southern cities had substantial black populations and the large effect of race in the
1930 regression derives primarily from the impact of blacks on non-southern school attendance
rates.50
Population density, reflecting the greater poverty of the denser cities, is negatively related
to school attendance whereas wealth per capita is positively related. High school density, a
variable we cannot construct at the state level, has a strong positive effect, showing the
importance of proximity to schools, even in cities.51 The average city in 1930 had 7,000 acres
and three secondary schools. If a city doubled its secondary schools, it would increase
22
attendance by 5 percentage points. Interestingly, the 1930 regression suggests a much larger
response of attendance rates to an additional vocational, rather than regular, high school.
Secondary schooling spread rapidly in the United States from 1910 to 1940. When the
United States entered World War II, the median 18-year old was a high school graduate and
secondary schooling had become part of mass education. The same was not true of Europe, not
What factors can explain the extraordinary spread of secondary education in the United
States? Can they also help us understand why Europe lagged? In other words: Why did the
Schooling differences within the United States suggest the importance of the level as well
as the distribution of wealth, and the level as well as the composition of manufacturing
employment. They hint to the importance of cultural and religious homogeneity among people
and stability of community. And they suggest that state expenditures on public colleges and
universities created a powerful incentive for youths to graduate from high school. We do not
know, however, what stronger state or national control relative to the local governments would
have achieved, for educational funding was mainly at the local level in the period under
consideration.52 In 1925, for example, localities raised 84 percent of the revenue for primary and
secondary education; states, counties, and the federal government together funded just 16 percent
(U.S. Department of Education Biennials 1924-1926). We find that the number of school
districts is positively correlated with educational outcomes, although the relationship is not
23
robust to the inclusion of certain other factors.
Thus many of the features of America that made it an egalitarian haven in the first part of
the nineteenth century allowed it to expand its system of education in the twentieth, even after
economic inequality had greatly increased. In the 1910s when inequality of non-agricultural
income was probably at one of its heights for the century, local governments began to fund an
expensive transition that would soon lead to nearly universal secondary school education.53
The aristocratic features of Europe that led many to abandon it for America, on the other
hand, hindered the spread of secondary education. In England and Wales, education beyond
grammar school was, until 1944, either privately provided and funded or only partially funded by
the government. Secondary schooling was, most often, preparatory training for university, but
higher education was not publicly funded. Students in Germany, France, and Great Britain were
tracked before their teenage years and only some were allowed to go on to secondary school and
then university.
Although the U.S. economy had become quite unequal by the early twentieth century,
several factors encouraged publicly funded secondary school education. One was local
provision. The poor were distinct regionally (southern incomes were half those nationally in
1920) and they were also distinct within regions (the foreign born, particularly from the newer
sending countries, were far more urbanized than were native-born whites). Thus the average
school district, with the exception of those in large urban areas, contained a relatively
homogeneous citizenry. In most European countries, on the other hand, where decision-making
was at the national, state, or provincial level, the broader distribution of income and wealth
militated against publicly funded secondary school education. Inequality of material condition
24
appears to have perpetuated Old World institutions that, for some time, reinforced the existing
distribution. As in various models of educational finance, this appears to be a classic case of the
“ends against the middle” (Epple and Romano 1996; Fernandez and Rogerson 1995).
But there is another factor, far harder to identify, that in the early twentieth century set
U.S. education apart from that in Europe. America had a stronger tradition of egalitarian
institutions and impulses emphasizing equality of opportunity and these survived the rise in
economic inequality. Among these institutions were the public colleges and universities of the
Midwest and West, and they were a contrast not just to the elite institutions of Europe but also to
their counterparts in the northeastern states, such as New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts.
But what did the high school movement signify for economic growth within the United
States and between America and Europe? A large literature links economic growth to a more
educated population either because educated people are more productive or because education
indirectly increases growth through a variety of routes (Barro 1997). Our state-level data allow a
Per capita income converged markedly across the states, particularly after the 1930s
(Barro and Sala-I-Martin 1991). Convergence forces were so powerful that they appear to leave
little else to account for differences in per capita income growth. Yet, in a convergence equation
framework for the 1929 to 1947 period, the public high school enrollment rate in 1928 has a
significant, positive, and strong effect on the growth of income, whereas the proportion urban or
manufacturing has a negative effect. In the 1920s, the per capita incomes of high-education
states grew faster, given initial levels.54 We do not yet have an answer to a related question of
larger significance, whether the substantial differences between education in the United States
25
and in Europe are part of what differentiated the interwar and post-World War II growth
The increase in secondary school education is the largest component of the increase in the
educational stock of Americans over the twentieth century.55 It was high school and not college
that dominated the rapid expansion of educational attainment before the 1970s. Many of the
“super-education” states of the high school movement era (e.g., Iowa) have continued to be
among the top educational performers today, with the regrettable exception of California.
Why the United States has fallen behind many countries in the quality of its secondary-
school education may be rooted, ironically, in some of the characteristics that are considered to
have been virtuous earlier in the twentieth century. These characteristics include small,
numerous, and fiscally independent districts; public funding and provision; an absence of
uniform standards for advancement; and an open, forgiving, and second-chance system. These
virtues once led to the expansion of high schools but have increasingly come under attack for a
variety of reasons.56
26
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32
Table 1
High School Graduation Rates, Summary Statistics by State
Unweighted Weighted
Coefficient Coefficient
Standard of Standard of
Mean deviation variation Mean deviation variation
48 States
1910 0.088 0.049 0.557 0.086 0.043 0.500
1920 0.180 0.085 0.472 0.162 0.069 0.426
1928 0.300 0.117 0.390 0.270 0.100 0.370
1938 0.504 0.145 0.289 0.482 0.130 0.270
32 Non-southern States
1910 0.112 0.043 0.384 0.111 0.033 0.297
1920 0.223 0.069 0.309 0.199 0.056 0.281
1928 0.361 0.093 0.258 0.321 0.086 0.268
1938 0.581 0.097 0.167 0.559 0.075 0.134
33
Table 2
Explaining Total (Public and Private) Secondary-School Graduation Rates Across States
35
Notes: Standard errors are in parentheses; ordinary least squares regressions, unweighted except for the
1928 to 1938 change regressions (cols. 5, 6). Weight for state i is (Si,28 · Si,38)/(Si,28 + Si,38) where Si,t =
share of state i 17-year olds in U.S. total in year t. Weighting does not affect results in cols. (1) to (4).
The 1928 to 1938 regressions are weighted due to two outliers (DE and NV). Number of observations is
48 in all columns; DC is excluded. AZ and NM were territories until 1912 but are included with the 1910
states.
Dependent variable:
Total (public and private) graduation rate by state: Goldin (1998); the number of graduates divided by
the number of 17-year olds in the state.
Independent variables:
Variables listed as percent (%) are entered as fractions. Note that in the change equations of columns (4),
(5), and (6) the explanatory variables are those at the beginning of the period and reflect starting
conditions.
Per capita taxable wealth, 1912 or 1922: Taxable wealth/population, U.S. Department of Commerce
(1926), Statistical Abstract.
% ≥ 65 years, 1910 or 1930: U.S. Bureau of the Census (1975), series A 195-209.
% in manufacturing, 1910 or 1930: U.S. Bureau of the Census (1932, 1912).
% Catholic, 1910 or 1926: U.S. Department of Commerce (1930), Religious Bodies: 1926, Vol. I, table
29. The 1910 numbers are extrapolated from those for 1906 and 1916. All are expressed per state
resident.
South: South includes the census divisions South Atlantic, East South Central, and West South Central.
New England: census division New England.
Middle Atlantic: census division Middle Atlantic.
Males in public colleges/17-year olds, 1910: U.S. Bureau of Education (1910), table 31, p. 850. Military
academies receiving public support are excluded. The denominator contains both males and females.
Wage in manufacturing, 1929: Kuznets, et al. (1960), table A 3.5, p. 129.
Auto registrations per capita, 1930: U.S. Department of Commerce (1940), Statistical Abstract, table
467.
Agricultural income per agricultural worker, 1920 (mean = $943): Kuznets, et al. (1960), table A 4.3, p.
36
187. The variable is agricultural service income per agricultural worker.
% unemployment, 1930 (mean = 5.74%), 1940 (mean = 8.83%): U.S. Bureau of Commerce, Statistical
Abstract, (1932) table 341, (1948) table 203. Unemployment for 1930 refers to April 1930 and is the sum
of Class A (non-layoff) and Class B (layoff).
Sources: For complete notes regarding the sources see Goldin and Katz (1997), from which this table
derives.
37
Table 3
Explaining School Attendance of 15, 16 and 17-Year Olds across Cities: 1910, 1920, and 1930
a
The 1910 and 1920 estimations use the 1910 values; the 1930 estimation uses the 1920 values.
Notes:
Standard errors are in parentheses. Ordinary least squares estimation used with no weighting (weighting
by population does not affect the results). Cities include all with more than 10,000 persons in 1910. The
few cities that merged with another or divided into two were kept as one unit, either merged or separated,
throughout the sample period.
Dependent variable:
Percentage of 16 (or 15) to 17-year olds who attended any school during some time in the year preceding
the census: U.S. Bureau of the Census (1912, 1923, 1932).
38
Independent variables: All variables are from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, census of population or
manufactures for the relevant years, except where noted. Unless specified as the census of manufactures,
the source is the population census in the relevant year. Population censuses are U.S. Bureau of the
Census (1912, 1923, 1932); censuses of manufactures are U.S. Bureau of the Census (1913, 1923a, 1933).
39
% white collar in labor force: professional, clerical, trade, public service workers/all in labor force in city.
% bldg. trades in labor force: workers in the building trades/all in labor force in city.
Sources: For complete references to the sources, see Goldin and Katz (1997). We have not listed all the
source references in this paper. The current sample includes southern cities, which were excluded from
our previous paper.
40
Figure 1: Secondary School Enrollment and Graduation Rates: Entire United States, 1890 to
1970
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970
Notes: Enrollment figures are divided by the number of 14- to 17-year olds; graduation figures
are divided by the number of 17-year olds. The data include both males and females in public
and private schools (excluding preparatory departments in colleges and universities). Year given
is end of school year.
Sources: U.S. Department of Education (1993) and Goldin’s calculations for graduation rate data
from 1910 to 1930.
41
Figure 2: Secondary School Enrollment Rates for European Nations and the United States,
c.1955
60
40
20
0
AUT NLD LUX DEU BEL CHE FRA IRL GBR DNK NOR SWE
42
Notes: The data refer to the number of youths in public and private upper and lower secondary
schools (of the types listed) ranging from those who turned 15-years old during the school year
to those who turned 19-years old during that year. Thus, the age group under consideration is
approximately all 15- to 18-year olds, plus one-half of 14- and 19-year olds. No youths in
elementary schools or colleges and universities are included even if they were in the included
ages. The procedure ensures consistency but implicitly favors countries, such as the Nordic
nations, that have late starting ages and penalizes those, such as France and the United States,
that have earlier starting ages. The computation for the United States assumes 100 percent
enrollment for the 14-year olds and then adds all enrolled in ninth through twelfth grades and
divides by the age group given above. All data are for c.1955.
We have included only those countries for which we have data for all three educational
types. Abbreviations are: Austria (AUT), Netherlands (NLD), Luxemburg (LUX), Germany
(DEU), Belgium (BEL), Switzerland (CHE), France (FRA), Ireland (IRL), Great Britain (GBR),
Denmark (DNK), Norway (NOR), and Sweden (SWE). The countries are arrayed in increasing
order of their full-time general schooling rate, given by the bottom portion of the histogram bar.
Sources: European nations: Dewhurst, et al. (1961). The Dewhurst et al. data for England and
Wales, France, Germany (including the Saar and West Berlin), and Sweden, have been checked
against the original administrative records and small errors have been corrected. United States:
U.S. Department of Education (1993), tables 1 and 9.
43
Figure 3: Public and Private High School Graduation Rates, 1910 to 1970
0.8
Pacific
Public and Private High Schl Grad Rate
New England
West North Central
Middle Atlantic
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970
44
Panel B: Two regions of the South and the East North Central for comparison
0.8
East North Central
Public and Private High Schl Grad Rate
0.4
0.2
0.0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970
Notes: Includes both males and females in public and private schools (including preparatory
departments of colleges and universities). Graduates are divided by the approximate number of
17-year olds in the state. Constant growth rate interpolations of population data are made
between census years.
Sources: State-level high school graduation data set from various sources; see Goldin (1994,
1998).
45
Figure 4: Public and Private High School Graduation Rates by State, 1928
Notes: The public and private graduation rate is the number of graduates from all public and
private secondary schools, including preparatory divisions of colleges and universities, divided
by the number of 17-year olds in the state. Constant growth rate interpolations of population
data were made between census years. Shading divides states into four, approximately equal,
groups.
46
Figure 5: High School Graduation Rates and State Characteristics: 1910 to 1930
Panel A
ME
0.20
High school graduation rate, 1910
NH
VT
IA
MA IN
0.15 NE
CO KS OH
CACT
MI
WA MNIL WI
UT NV
0.10 SD OR
PA RI
ND MO
NY
MT NJ
MD
WY TX
IDAZ
0.05 FL TN KY
DE
MS
SC
AR GA NC
NM
OK LA VA
AL WV
0.00
0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08
Fraction > 64 years old, 1910
Panel B
NV
WA
0.5
High school graduation rate, 1928
KS
NE
WY OR IA
ME CO
0.4 ID
IN CA
MA NHMT OH SD
UT VT
MO WI MN
IL ND
0.3 CT
OK
RI MI
PA
NJ DE AZ
0.2 NC NY FL TX
MD
LA WV
KY
MSSC TN NM
AL GA
AR VA
0.1
47
Figure 5, continued
Panel C
NV
Change in high schl. grad. rate, 1910-1928
WA
0.4 WY
ID KSOR
0.3 MTNE
SD CO IA
MO UT CA
OK OH
MN ND
MAIN
WI
ME
0.2 IL
NH CT
DE RI
VT AZ
NC
FL
LA WVPA NJ
TX MI
MS TN KY NM
MD NY
SC AL
0.1 GA
VA
AR
Panel D
Change in high schl. grad. rate, 1910-1928
NV
WA
0.4 WY
ID KS OR
0.3 MT NE
SD IA CO
MO CA UT
OH
OK ND
MA MN WI IN
ME
0.2 IL
CT NH
NJ FL RI AZNC
VT DE
WV
PA
LA TX
KY MI
MDNY
TN
ALMS SC
NM
0.1 GA
VA
AR
1
The first transformation was the achievement of widespread public primary-education
accomplished in the mid-nineteenth century. The third transformation, still in motion, is the rise
of higher education that swiftly increased after World War II. By “education” we mean years of
across educational institutions. Secondary schooling began at age 14 in some countries but at
age 11 in others.
4
This point does not necessarily follow from the previous statements on educational flows since
the educational stock (meaning average years of school) of Americans was often diluted by the
arrival of lower-educated immigrants. But because the level of education of the native-born
population was so high, compared with that in Great Britain for example, the dilution effect does
not overturn the statement that the educational stock of the American workforce was greater than
percentile. The ratio of the highest to the lowest state was 4.6 for the 1928 graduation rate and
1955, we cannot do so for various years in the first half of the twentieth century.
7
See Engerman, Mariscal, and Sokoloff (2002) on factors, similar to those we identify, that help
49
explain differences within the Western Hemisphere, such as wealth distribution, income and
wealth level, bureaucratic decentralization, rapid growth in income, and the need to attract
immigrants.
8
One might have expected a lower, not higher, proportion older in the population in areas that
led in secondary school education. Today, in contrast to the past, citizens without children do
not generally support educational expenses as much as they support those for pensions and
healthcare.
9
Of all native-born, white men 40 to 49 years old in 1940, 27 percent had not completed eighth
grade, and of those born outside the South 19 percent had not. Just 7 percent of this latter group
had not completed 6 years. Those who were 40 to 49 years old in 1940 would have been about
14 years old from 1905 to 1914. Source: 1940 PUMS 1/100 sample.
10
World War I did much to solidify these notions. According to the Iowa Commissioner of
Education, “Those who have a high school education have risen in rank [during World War I] ..
The business world is also more and more demanding young men and women of high school
training” (Iowa Department of Public Instruction 1916-1918, p. 45). Most of the reports of
educational commissioners in the more progressive states speak to this point, but these
propagandizing. The aspirations of ordinary Americans can also be gleaned from the literature
of the day. Theodore Dreiser, O.Henry, Sinclair Lewis, Sherwood Anderson, Willa Cather, and
John Dos Passos all wrote of the high school educated. In Dreiser, O.Henry, Lewis, Cather, and
Anderson a high school education gave their characters the ability to leave rural America. For
all these writers high school was associated with respectability and success. It also signified, as
50
in Sinclair Lewis’s feminist novels, potential independence for women.
11
See Reese (1995) on the early history of secondary schools in the United States.
12
The social statistics portions of the 1850, 1860, and 1870 U.S. population censuses collected
information on public and private schools. These data have often been cited as evidence on the
large number of students who attended academies. But the data often include the lower
elementary grades as well and are, in consequence, unusable for many parts of the nation
Census of 1915 yields a return to a year of high school in Iowa of 11 percent for males and 10
percent for females (these returns are higher for young adults). These estimates are from log
annual earnings regressions that include, among other variables, a quartic in potential experience,
foreign-born status, years in the United States, and race. Note that these estimated returns do not
include the potential for additional returns from migrating out of Iowa to areas with higher
income for the more educated. See Goldin and Katz (2000).
14
The 35 to 40 percent figure can be derived in two independent ways. One uses the reports of
high school principals concerning what graduating seniors claimed they would do after
graduation. In 1910, 35 percent of all public and private high school graduates (not including
those in the preparatory divisions of colleges and universities) claimed they would continue to
college, whereas 50 percent said they would continue with some form of higher education.
Another source for the statistic comes from taking the total number of secondary school
graduates in 1910 (156,000 for public and private) and dividing it by the number of entrants to
degree-granting institutions of higher learning, which we estimate to have been 60,975. There
51
were 174,213 students in collegiate programs (excluding graduate and professional students but
probably including those in teachers’ colleges). We use our estimate that 35 percent were in
their first year. See U.S. Bureau of Education, Biennials 1928-1930, p. 338.
Ravitch (2000), citing an article by Edward Krug, is critical of estimates regarding the
fraction of high school graduates who continued to college, asserting that the numbers are
inflated because data on entering undergraduates are too high. Our calculations are consistent
with reasonable college figures and are also consistent with Krug’s own estimates.
15
The first junior high school appeared in 1909 in two college towns: Berkeley, CA and
Columbus, OH. By 1923, 47 percent of cities (with populations exceeding 10,000 in 1910)
outside the South had at least one junior high school and 70 percent did by 1927 (based on U.S.
overstating the educational attainment of older cohorts, see Goldin (1998). Only two states, prior
to 1940, had censuses that inquired of educational attainment (Iowa in 1915 and 1925; South
Dakota in 1915). Various U.S. federal population censuses inquired as to the attendance of
individuals in school at any time during the preceding year. We use these data in the city-level
analysis, but the statewide levels for this variable do not appear reasonable, especially for the
South.
17
The data include those in 2-, 3-, or 4-year public and private high schools, in the final year of
junior high, and in the preparatory departments of colleges and universities. They do not
generally include students attending common schools beyond eight years, although in some
states they may. Students in the preparatory departments of colleges and universities have been
52
omitted from all other series we know of despite the fact that they accounted for about one-third
states we have been able to find, the average daily attendance is generally more than 80 percent
of enrollment. We have average daily attendance data in our city-level sample. There is no
apparent reason for an overstatement of enrollment since the states provided little to localities.
Graduation data, however, are generally cleaner in the sense that the concept is less ambiguous
than is enrollment. States, then as today, set their own requirements for graduation.
19
We divide by 17-year olds for the graduation rate, and by 14- to 17-year olds for the
enrollment rate.
20
See U.S. Department of Education (1993, table 19).
21
It is an odd logistical function, however, because it later rises again. High school graduation
unskilled jobs in the wartime economy is that young women did as well.
23
The coefficient of variation of the state’s graduation rate, in contrast, shows convergence
across states. But there is good reason to prefer the standard deviation. Because the log of
standard deviation of education in years (alternatively, as here, the standard deviation in high
school graduation rates) is a sensible proxy for the standard deviation in (log) permanent income.
This measure is, therefore, a reasonable one for the impact of education on income inequality.
24
North America, not just the United States, was the distinctive part of the world. Canadian
53
secondary school (public and private) enrollment rates by province are similar to, though far
lower than, those in the states just South of the border. In 1941, for example, the
contemporaneous secondary school enrollment rate for Ontario was 40.3 percent; that for the
Mid-Atlantic was 83.6 percent. The rate for British Columbia was 55.3, whereas for the Pacific
states it was 92.0 percent. The Maritimes and Quebec look more like the American South in this
U.S. population census data on whether youths, at particular ages, attended school during the
year. The administrative data cannot be easily used because youths from outside city boundaries
attended school in the city and thus we have no reliable denominator for some of the smaller
cities. Although the enrollment data given in the population census provide an inflated measure
of the high school enrollment rate for rural youth in this period, they seem more consistent with
administrative secondary school enrollment data for urban youth in large cities.
26
Individual high school enrollment decisions are also likely to depend positively on family
wealth endowments both through an income effect on the consumption demand for schooling
and the easing of capital market constraints (i.e., increased wealth effectively lowers r). Note
that we express the wage premium relative to the second period wage because the absolute
the intergenerational loan was paid back in the form of social security. We, on the other hand,
are conceptualizing the intergenerational loan as being shifted within the community from one
median distance from the median) reduces the amount of public goods provision. They find,
“productive” public goods (schooling, roads, and libraries) and the city’s degree of ethnic
fragmentation.
30
The coefficient of variation of city-level mean clerk wages is smaller than that for production
workers in a sample of 227 non-southern cities in 1919. Similar patterns are apparent in 1909
and 1914. See Goldin and Katz (1995) for a description of the data, which come from the U.S.
census of manufactures.
31
We have also divided non-Catholics into two other groups: non-hierarchical religions that
encourage the reading of the bible by the laity (e.g., Lutherans, New England Protestants) and
non-hierarchical ones that did not (e.g., most evangelical religions). Only the percentage
Catholic is of statistical and economic significance. Race is another important factor in U.S.
educational history. But given the large percentage of blacks living in the South during the 1910
to 1940 period, there is little systematic relationship between percentage non-white and
graduation rates once measures of income and wealth and a South dummy are included in the
state-level regressions.
32
In constructing Table 2, we chose variables from these groups to illustrate the role of each.
33
The estimates in cols. (1) to (4) are unweighted, but these results are not very sensitive to
55
weighting by state population. Cols. (5) and (6) are weighted by the population of 17-year olds
in each state because unweighted estimates of models to explain the change in graduation rates
from 1928 to 1938 are greatly influenced by two extreme outliers (DE and NV). Thus we
quality education. In the period we are examining, the elderly generally did not, or could not,
move from places with more expensive educational public goods. Grandparents who lived in
towns and villages at the turn of this century often boarded their grandchildren who lived on
farms to enable them to attend high school. This interpretation is consistent with the findings in
Hoxby (1998) concerning the impact of the elderly on expenditures across the twentieth century.
35
If the (log) per capita wealth were omitted from col. (2), the role of automobiles per capita
would greatly increase. A shift from the state at the 25th percentile to that at the 75th percentile
would increase the graduation rate by 8 percentage points or by 27 percent of the mean
to the inclusion of controls for population density, percentage urban, and access to improved
roads.
37
Lindert (1994, 1996), in two cross-country studies of the twentieth century, finds that greater
equality fosters more social spending (e.g., transfer programs) and that a greater percentage of
Notes: Includes a full set of state and year dummies. Number of observations = 144; R2 = 0.959.
(log) wealth variable. The results are virtually unchanged if (log) wealth in 1922 is used.
40
In 1917, for example, although 30 states had a maximum age of compulsory school of 16
years, all but four granted labor permits at or before age 14 and the remaining four granted them
at age 15. The education required for a labor permit was nowhere more than 8 years and was
exactly 8 years in just five states. In 1928 the maximum age of compulsory schooling had
increased to 18 in five states and to 17 in another five states. But labor permits were still issued
to those under 16 years of age in all but two states and the education required for a labor permit
was no where greater than 8 years. The laws, therefore, do not appear to have effectively
constrained youths to remain in high school, let alone mandated graduation from high school.
the laws on the educational attainment of individuals who were 14-years old at some year from
1915 to 1939.
42
See, for example, Edwards (1978), Landes and Solmon (1972), Margo and Finegan (1996),
57
and Schmidt (1996). Margo and Finegan, using the 1900 census, find some impact of
compulsory education laws on the schooling of 14-year olds, but only when combined with
child-labor legislation.
43
See, as well, Acemoglu and Angrist (2000) and Goldin and Katz (2003).
44
An interesting question is why voters in districts that already had high schools cared that other
districts in their state did not. There are various possibilities. One is ideological. Another is that
town and village high schools were crowded with youth from the “open country” who boarded
with relatives to avoid tuition payments. Yet another is that districts that imposed higher taxes to
support their schools wanted to prevent their older residents from escaping higher rates by
moving across districts. This possibility seems less likely. By 1925 virtually all non-southern
and 17-year olds. School attendance is defined here to include only those who attended school
and who were not also employed for pay or by their families. The restriction eliminates many
who went to school for brief periods or who did not attend day schools. We find the following
1910 1920
The 1910 sample contains 9,607 observations and that for 1920 has 11,955. A similar pattern is
apparent, but modestly attenuated, in a linear probability model of full-time enrollment (enrolled
but not employed) with controls for census division and dummy variables for race, sex, foreign-
born status, parents’ foreign-born status, and father’s occupational group. See Goldin and Katz
schooling for 1910, 229 have wealth data for 1925, and 259 have data on school density in 1933.
47
The U.S. federal population census in 1910, 1920, and 1930 asked whether an individual had
attended school at least one day during the preceding year. Attendance could have been at a
among others. Another measure is available for our group of cities. It is similar to our state-
level measure and gives average daily attendance in the school district, which was almost always
the entire city. The problem with this variable is that families living outside the city, in areas
without a high school, often went to the schools in the city (tuition was sometimes paid by the
student'
s school district or parents). To convert the attendance data into a rate, the city’s
population of 14 to 17-year olds must be used, but the population will, on occasion, omit some
who went to the school. Over time, we can observe large changes in the rates of some cities,
possibly reflecting the opening of high schools in neighboring communities and thus the
reduction in attendance in the city. Empirical findings concerning the correlates of city high
school attendance rates and city characteristics are quite similar for both the census enrollment
59
rate measure and the city average daily attendance rate measure for the sub-sample of cities with
enrollment rates and ethnic fragmentation (measured by 1 minus the Herfindahl index of ethnic
group population shares) in 1920 using a decomposition of each city’s population into 14 ethnic
groups based on race and parents’ birthplaces. Ethnic fragmentation is strongly and negatively
correlated with enrollment rates for 16 to17-year olds in northern cities in 1920. But it is also
highly correlated with the fraction foreign born and Catholic and is insignificant when either is
reasons. The results with and without southern cities are similar overall.
50
Many southern urban school districts did not report to the federal government in the 1930s and
the reasons for their apparent noncompliance were not recorded in the Biennials. Of the 36 cities
that drop from the sample between 1920 and 1930, 30 must be excluded due to missing
region that provides the exception to the rule concerning the large numbers of fiscally
independent districts had far lower schooling rates. But the roles of race, income, and the rural
education such as the graduation rate, public or total. We admit, though, that any of the strong
explanatory variables for education (such as automobile registrations per capita) are also equally
convergence regression follows. The relationship, although weaker, remains for the longer 1929
to 1959 period.
Dependent variable:
Log(income per capita 1947/income per capita, 1929); weighted mean = 0.660
Notes: Number of observations = 48; R2 = 0.912. Regression is weighted by the state’s adult
population in 1930.
Sources: Public enrollment rate, 1928: Goldin (1994, 1998). Per capita income 1929, 1947:
U.S. Department of Commerce (1984). Percent urban, 1930: U.S. Bureau of the Census (1975).
55
DeLong, Goldin, and Katz (2003), using data from the 1940 to 1990 U.S. population censuses
and the 1999-2000 Current Population Surveys, find that mean educational attainment of U.S.
natives (adjusted to age 30) increased by 6.75 years from the birth cohort of 1880 (7.07 years) to
the birth cohort of 1970 (13.82 years). This increase of 6.75 years of schooling, for those who
were young adults from the beginning of the twentieth century to nearly its end, is made up of
61
1.4 years of elementary school (grades 1 to 8), 3.13 years of secondary school (grades 9 to 12),
62