Current Energy Policies and Possible Transition Scenarios Adopting Renewable Energy A Case Study For Bangladesh

Renewable Energy 155 (2020) 899e920
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Renewable Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/renene
Current energy policies and possible transition scenarios adopting

renewable energy: A case study for Bangladesh
Ashish Gulagi *, Manish Ram , A.A. Solomon , Musharof Khan , Christian Breyer
LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850, Lappeenranta, Finland
a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t
Article history: This study analyses energy transition pathways for the case of Bangladesh. The LUT Energy System
Received 8 April 2019 Transition model, a high temporal - spatial resolution linear optimisation tool, is used to model an energy
Received in revised form system transition from 2015 to 2050 for the case of Bangladesh. Four scenarios aimed at analysing
15 January 2020
different energy policies were created in order to replicate the present and alternative renewable energy
Accepted 20 March 2020
based policies, with and without greenhouse gas emissions costs. The results show that emissions costs
Available online 26 March 2020
accelerate the transition towards a fully renewable energy system, however, removing these costs does
not significantly affect the energy system, as renewables would still contribute 94% of the electricity
Keywords:
Bangladesh
generation by 2050. The Current Policy Scenario increases electricity and greenhouse gas emissions costs
Energy transition significantly especially, starting in 2025. The results indicate that countries like Bangladesh are prone to
100% renewable Energy serious and complicated national risks that lead to several vulnerabilities like high electricity costs, in-
Energy economics crease in greenhouse gas emissions, energy insecurity and poor political trust, if present energy policies
Storage technologies are pursued. However, focusing on indigenous renewable resources could help mitigate this vulnerability
and bring about socioeconomic benefits.
© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction countries are still taking cautious steps towards embracing re-
newables [5]. Recent studies have shown that these cautious steps
In the past years, industrial development, rise in population and carry significant risks for countries that plan to rely on fossil fuels
an increase in living standards led to significant increase in global [6]. The level of risk and vulnerability could be more significant for
primary energy consumption [1]. While, this trend is expected to developing countries, who do not revise their policies frequently
continue in the future, global energy consumption could double by and those depending on fossil fuel imports. Bangladesh is one of the
2100 [2]. Maintaining a fast-paced economic growth at the same countries that appear to be prone to such risks.
level as population increase, particularly in developing countries, Bangladesh is one of the rapidly developing countries in South
together with climate change mitigation targets, have put Asia [7]. It is also one of the most densely populated countries,
tremendous pressure on governments to supply stable, uninter- having a population density of around 1079 per km2 [8]. The
rupted and sustainable power [3]. High dependence on domestic or average annual GDP growth rate was 5.7% between 1996 to 2016,
imported fossil fuels have environmental consequences of their with a peak of 7.1% observed in 2016 [9]. According to the Gov-
own, in addition to risks related to long term energy security and ernment of Bangladesh (GoB), GDP is expected to grow at an
cost competitiveness of electricity production. Therefore, govern- average annual growth rate of 6.1% from 2016 to 2041 [8]. On the
ments around the world are revisiting their energy strategies to other hand, electricity demand grew at an average annual growth
enable transition towards increased adoption of renewable energy rate of 9.7% between 2004 to 2015 [10]. The historical growth in
sources [4,5]. This has resulted in the addition of around 160 GW of GDP and electricity demand are correlated because rise in elec-
renewables, globally in 2017, which is far more than the installed tricity demand is often associated with improving standards of
capacities of fossil fuels and nuclear power. However, most living and national economic activity. This was observed in the
growth of electricity access from 40.6% in 2004 to 68.2% in 2015
[11]. However, it should be noted that Bangladesh has a per capita
electricity consumption of just 387 kWh, which is amongst the
* Corresponding author. lowest in the world [8].
E-mail address: Ashish.Gulagi@lut.fi (A. Gulagi).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.03.119
0960-1481/© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
900 A. Gulagi et al. / Renewable Energy 155 (2020) 899e920
Nomenclature LCOC Levelised cost of curtailment

LCOE Levelised cost of electricity
A-CAES Adiabatic compressed air energy storage LCOG Levelised cost of gas
AC Alternating Current LCOS Levelised cost of storage
BAU Business-as-usual LCOT Levelised cost of transmission
BERC Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission NCBD National Committee Bangladesh
CAPEX Capital expenditure OCGT Open cycle gas turbine
CCGT Combined cycle gas turbine OPEX Operational expenditures
CCS Carbon capture and storage PHES Pumped hydro energy storage
CSP Concentrating solar thermal power PSMP Power System Master Plan
FLH Full load hours PtG Power-to-gas
GoB Government of Bangladesh QRPP Quick Rental Power Plant
GHG Greenhouse gases RE Renewable energy
HVDC High-voltage direct current SWRO Seawater reverse osmosis
IEA International Energy Agency TES Thermal energy storage
INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contributions WACC Weighted average cost of capital
Bangladesh has been dependent on fossil fuels for its electricity Bangladesh presents a good case study for developing countries:
generation [12] and a continued reliance will require an increase in First, it is a developing country that is highly dependent on fossil
fossil fuel imports to satisfy the growing electricity demand, as fuels for its electricity generation and its future energy policy is
domestic reserves a due to limited domestic reserves. A high con- inclined towards the imports of fossil fuels. Second, it lies in a re-
tingency on imported gas, coal and oil will not only add economic gion of high solar potential, hence its future energy supply will have
pressure on Bangladesh, but also raise serious questions on its long- a large share of solar PV. Third, presence of the monsoon season and
term energy security [13]. Moreover, as one of the world’s most few electricity generation options other than solar in a fully
vulnerable countries to be impacted by the threats of rising sea renewable energy system.
level on its low-lying areas [14], burning fossil fuels puts In addition, there is no research on future energy transition
Bangladesh in a more precarious position due to eroding trust to- scenarios that are fully based on a broader potential of renewable
wards its government’s integrity and commitment to address its energy (RE) resources for Bangladesh. Table 1 summarises various
society’s vulnerability. Specifically, studies show that about 1 m sea energy scenarios and their key findings. Unfortunately, none of
level rise will submerge one-fifth of the country’s land mass, which them have considered broader RE resources and as a result ach-
might dramatically increase climate change refugees in the coming ieved lower RE shares. Moreover, the modelling tools adopted lack
decades, displacing millions of individuals and communities from a key requirement, such as, the ability to handle an hourly dy-
their homes [15e17]. In addition, PM 2.5 concentration is steeply namics of storage and the needed hourly balance between demand
rising since 2010 and about 100 thousand people die each year due and generation, in order to simulate high variable RE systems
to increasing air pollution [18]. The above facts obligate countries appropriately [37,38].
such as Bangladesh to take a leading role in working towards a This study contributes to the various existing studies on the
renewable future. energy transition pathways for Bangladesh. However, it goes a few
Currently, renewable energy is gaining momentum in the global steps further by considering the multi-nodal approach with an
energy mix, which is seen as a low risk option in comparison to hourly resolution for an entire transition year [29,30,42] in addi-
fossil fuels. This is mainly attributed to the expected cost decline tion, to its broader power generation, storage and flexibility options
[19], of the main renewable energy technologies, PV [20,21] wind including grid balancing among the regions. Further, it identifies
[22] and batteries [23,24]. Additionally, the levelised cost of elec- the risks associated with future energy policies of the Government
tricity production have become cost competitive with fossil fuels of Bangladesh, like energy security in this changing geo-political
[25]. These factors have triggered a positive outlook towards world, increasing greenhouse gas emissions, climate change and
renewable energy technologies all around the world. Several high electricity costs and the potential opportunities in embracing
studies have reported the technical feasibility and economic renewables. This paper shows how RE could solve energy security
viability of 100% renewable energy systems for various parts of the challenges of Bangladesh as well as meet the climate change goal of
world, e.g. Finland [26], Denmark [27], Australia [28], Israel [6], reducing its GHG emissions.
India [29,30], Pakistan [31], Southeast Asia [32], Nigeria [33], Sub-
Saharan Africa [34], etc. According to Brown et al. [35], 100% 2. Methodology
renewable energy systems are already technically feasible and
economically viable with decreasing costs every year. Hansen et al. This research assesses energy transition scenarios for
[36] present an overview on 100% RE studies and comment on the Bangladesh from 2015 to 2050. The modelling was performed using
status and perspectives of the respective research. This suggests LUT Energy System Transition model, which is summarised below.
that achieving 100% RE by 2050 is possible but often hindered by More detailed information about the model and its inputs can be
political will. The above discussion clearly puts renewables in the found in Bogdanov and Breyer [42,43].
forefront for achieving a lower levelised cost of electricity by 2050 The LUT Energy System Transition model optimises energy
than the present energy policies. systems under a set of linear constraints and assumptions for future
For Bangladesh, renewable energy sources can provide a viable RE power generation and demand for a particular area. The tran-
alternative in tackling energy shortage, energy security and long- sition is modelled starting from the energy system in 2015 towards
term energy planning with reduced GHG emissions, whilst a fully RE system in 2050, in 5-year time steps. The model ensures
complying with climate change targets. For these reasons, that all technologies, which are built in the transition period, are
A. Gulagi et al. / Renewable Energy 155 (2020) 899e920 901
Table 1
Various studies on future electricity demand and renewable energy system for Bangladesh.
Study Scope Key findings
Mondal M. A. H. et al., 2014 [39] Bangladesh Different scenarios analysed from 2010 to 2035 using MARKAL. Different policy scenarios developed for the analyses of
the power sector. The analyses show that energy imports are needed to satify the growing energy demand in the future.
However, imports can be reduced by having CO2 reduction targets or fast increase in renewable energy deployment.
Additionally, this would also improve energy security and reduce environmental impacts without increase in
discounted total energy system cost. The highest installed capacities of solar PV is observed in the Null Coal Import
scenario of about 41 GW and electricity generation is 84 TWh. The renewables share in total installed capacity in 2035 is
about 41%.
Power System Master Plan (PSMP), Bangladesh In 2041, the total electricity demand would be 335 TWh, which would be supplied by coal (35%), gas (35%), imports/
2016 [40] renewable (15%), nuclear (10%), and oil (5%). Approximate generation costs would be in the range of 97e124 V/MWh.
IEEFA, 2016 [10] Bangladesh Total electricity demand will be 92.5 TWh by 2024/2025. Renewable energy will have the highest share in electricity
production around 50%, followed by gas 26% and oil 12%. 62% of the total renewable electricity will be provided by
various solar energy technologies.
National Committee Bangladesh Bangladesh By 2041, the approximate electricity demand would be 490 TWh in which renewable energy contributes 55%, natural
(NCBD), 2017 [13] gas 37%, and others have 8% share. Batteries would be used as storage technologies with a capacity of 78 TWh.
Das A. et al., 2018 [41] Bangladesh Four scenarios were explored till 2045: Power System Master Plan scenario, a high power import scenario, a higher use
of renewable scenario and a combined scenario with high power imports and high renewable energy use. The results
were optimised using a TIMES model and indicated that the combined scenario with high renewable energy and high
imports lead to a least cost system. The maximum installed capacity for PV and wind in the high renewable energy
scenario is 10 GW and 4.6 GW respectively and total generation from renewables is around 22.7 TWh in 2045. The
maximum imports for the combined scenario is around 100 TWh. Due to the modelling strategy, this study leads to
significant fossil fuel consumption even under the best policy scenario.
fully amortised. The model is comprised of a clearly defined Fig. 1 presents a simplified representation of the model input
objective function, which optimises for every 5-year time step, so data, optimisation and results.
that all constraints and assumptions are satisfied, resulting in a Electricity is generated using a mix of fossil fuels and renewable
least cost energy system. The optimisation is currently carried out generation technologies. Additionally, intermittency of renewables
using a third party solver, MOSEK ver. 8. The post processing of the is balanced by deploying appropriate storage technologies and
optimisation results and model compilation is done using Matlab. flexibility options. The supply of electricity to the nodes is secured
The target function for the optimisation is given in Eq. (1). by utilising the assumed network of High Voltage Alternating
!
X
reg X
tech
min ðCAPEXt , crft þ OPEXfixt Þ , instCapt;r þ OPEXvart , Egen;t;r þ rampCostt , totRampt;r (1)
r¼1 t¼1
Current (HVAC) transmission lines. The list of various technologies

where the abbreviations stand for Capital cost of each technology, is given in Table 2 and Fig. 2.
CAPEXt; capital recovery factor for each technology, crft; fixed
operational cost for each technology, OPEXfixt; variable operational
3. Scenario development for the energy system analysis of
cost each technology, OPEXvart; installed capacity in a region,
Bangladesh
instCapt,r; electricity generation by each technology, Egen,t,r; ramping
cost of each technology, rampCostt; annual total power ramping
In this section, we briefly explore the energy system of
values for each technology, totRampt,r; each and every region, reg;
Bangladesh and present the scenarios designed to perform this
and each and every technology, tech.
study and the related baseline assumptions.
The LUT Energy System Transition model has the following
important features among other things:
3.1. Current and future energy policies in Bangladesh
Hourly resolution for an entire year depicting an accurate syn-
ergy between different system components utilised, guaran- In 2016, nearly 92% of the total electricity generated in
teeing an energy system much closer to reality, including energy Bangladesh was sourced from fossil fuels, with major contribution
supply security. from natural gas (60%) and the remaining from expensive furnace
A transition of an energy system can be modelled until any given oil and diesel (32%) [10,46]. In future, electricity generation will be
year in the future, as long as data is available. dependent on imported natural gas as its domestic natural gas
Utilisation of different storage technologies. fields are fast depleting. According to Ahmed et al. [47], natural gas
A multi-nodal approach of the model enables a country or a fields in the country will be empty within 15 years and running an
region to be divided into different sub-regions, each sub-region energy system that will be entirely depend on imported fuels, will
can act as a different node and the nodes can be interconnected undermine the energy security of the country.
to form a transmission network. The power sector in Bangladesh is entirely managed by the
Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDP), which is
Fig. 1. A simplified version of the LUT Energy System Transition model flowchart from input parameters to results.
Table 2
The list of technologies utilised for the energy system transition.
Technologies utilised
Generation Renewables: PV rooftop for prosumers, PV fixed-tilted, PV single-axis tracking [44], wind onshore, hydropower, geothermal, biomass and waste-to-energy
Fossil: coal, gas and oil
Nuclear power
Storage Batteries, pumped hydro energy storage (PHES), adiabatic compressed air energy storage (A-CAES) [45], gas storage and thermal energy storage (TES).
Transmission High Voltage Alternating Current (HVAC)
Fig. 2. The LUT Energy System Transition model [31].

responsible for electricity generation, transmission and distribu- The renewable energy policy was adopted in 2008 with an aim to
tion. The current installed capacity is around 18 GW, which includes boost renewable power generation [61]. In 2015, Bangladesh joined
2 GW of renewable energy [46,48]. Due to the persistent problems the International Solar Alliance to collaborate towards increased
of under generation, transmission and distribution losses [49], adoption of solar energy [62]. The installation of solar home sys-
current installed capacity is not enough to satisfy the ever-growing tems in off-grid areas had been booming in the last decade [63]. So
demand. To overcome the power shortage problem, the govern- far, 218 MW of solar home systems have been installed [64]. There
ment has undertaken Quick Rental Power Plant (QRPP) project were about 5 million solar home system (SHS) installations in 2017,
based on oil. However, price fluctuations of crude oil in the inter- for the benefit of 30 million people and has created 140,000 new
national market have increased the costs of electricity from these jobs [65]. Rooftop solar installations for commercial and residential
power plants. Even if the government is committed to purchase buildings has been gaining popularity in recent years [66]. For
electricity at the cost of production, the effect failed to provide the utility-scale solar PV, non-agricultural land owned by the govern-
aspired least cost electricity to the society [50]. ment is being used, mainly to develop solar parks [66]. Wind en-
According to the future policy of the Government of Bangladesh, ergy potential is around 340000 MW in Bangladesh with its nearly
coal and natural gas are expected to be the main fuel sources for 740 km long coastline and many small islands, where strong winds
power generation until 2041 [40]. However, local reserves of these are present during the monsoon season (May-October) [67].
resources are limited and therefore the nation will rely on Municipal waste has the potential to become a good energy
increasing fuel imports regardless of further risks associated with resource for Bangladesh. In 2015, 27 million tons of municipal solid
GHG emissions increase [50]. It should be noted that the power waste was produced in different municipalities [48]. Out of this,
sector alone contributes to 40% of the GHG emisisons in Bangladesh organic waste constitutes 78.9% [48], which can produce 10 TWhth
[51]. The target (until 2030) for example, aspires to increase the of biogas. Bangladesh also has a large potential of biomass due to its
capacity of coal power plants: 11.5 GW from domestic coal and agricultural economy. Agricultural and forest residues form a major
8.4 GW from imported coal [51]. component in its biomass potential. According to Hossen et al. [68],
agricultural, municipal waste, industries, animals and other sources
3.2. Renewable energy and GHG emissions abatement strategy in of waste can generate >950 TWhth of energy considering that all
Bangladesh waste is recovered. In addition, 315 MW of small scale and large-
scale hydropower plants can be installed in Bangladesh [61]. To
Bangladesh is amongst the developing countries with a small ensure long term energy security without burdening the economy
share of GHG emissions on the global level [52]. However, it is one or the enviornment, Bangladesh will need to stress on policies that
of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change. will exploit these RE potentials.
The Government of Bangladesh has ratified the United Nations
framework for climate change mitigation on 22nd April 2016 [53]. 3.3. Parameters and assumptions in the modelling
The submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
(INDC) includes emissions reduction goals in the power, transport 3.3.1. Subdivision and grid structure of Bangladesh
and industry sectors with an additional clause of conditional and For the purpose of this study, Bangladesh was sub-divided into
unconditional contributions. An unconditional contribution is to seven sub-regions based on population distribution, consumption
reduce the total GHG emissions by 5% from the business-as-usual of electricity and the grid structure. The division of Bangladesh into
(BAU) levels in 2030. However, with additional international sup- seven regions enables a high spatial resolution of the power sys-
port it plans to reduce its GHG emissions by 15% from the BAU tem, as shown in Fig. 4. The assumed grid structure is based on the
levels by 2030. To support its commitment, Bangladesh has a current power grid, with Dhaka as the main consumption centre,
number of activities and targets to reduce GHG emissions. Some of which is connected with all the sub-regions. The inter-regional
these activities include reducing the energy intensity (per GDP) by connections are via HVAC lines and intra-regional connections
20% by 2030 compared to 2013 levels, increasing the energy effi- are based on existing AC grid structure of the country.
ciency of new buildings, increasing penetration of renewables to
10% by 2020. The planned renewable energy increase is intended to 3.3.2. Potential and feed-in profiles for generation technologies
utilise the abundant solar potential, by increasing the distribution The generation profiles for single-axis tracking and optimally
of solar home systems, solar irrigation pumps, solar mini-grids and tilted PV, solar CSP, wind energy and hydropower were provided as
nano-grids [54], along with building utility-scale solar PV systems an input data to the model. The feed-in profiles were calculated
[52]. according to Bogdanov and Breyer [42], whereas single-axis
Bangladesh has good renewable energy potential, especially for tracking PV was modelled according to Afanasyeva et al. [44]. For
solar energy. Fig. 3 shows the distribution of solar yield in the base year 2015, installed capacities of solar PV, wind and hydro
Bangladesh. According to Ahamad and Tanin [55], Bangladesh re- were taken from Farfan and Breyer [69]. Upper limits of the RE
ceives an average solar irradiation of around 1095e1460 kWh/ capacities were added after evaluating the potential. The potential
(m2$a) and has the potential to generate 380 TWh of electricity, of wind and hydro power are limited [66,70]. On the other hand,
requiring about 10% of the total area of Bangladesh (excluding area Bangladesh has one of the best solar resource availability [10], but a
under agricultural and forest cover) [10,56]. This potential is criteria was set so that the total land area availability for solar PV
significantly higher than the present annual electricity demand and installations does not exceed more than 6% of the total area of a
could satisfy the projected electricity needs. Bangladesh can follow sub-region. It should be noted that solar resource variation over an
suite of its neighbouring country India, where the cost of electricity area such as the sub-regions in Bangladesh, is negligible [71,72].
generated from solar PV is currently amongst the lowest in the Thus, one selected site in each sub-region can give a good repre-
world, at about 35 V/MWh [57]. To realise the solar PV potential sentation of the resource availability in that particular sub-region,
and cost competitiveness against fossil fuel power plants, India has and the respective algorithm from Bogdanov and Breyer had been
set up target to install 100 GW by 2022 [58] and 227 GW by 2027 applied [42]. The variable solar resource characteristic data was
[59]. according to real weather year 2005. The overall wind energy po-
Similarly, the Government of Bangladesh has initiated a number tential in Bangladesh is limited to the coastal areas and mainly
of programs to take advantage of its renewable energy potential. available during the monsoon season [66,73,74]. Additionally, due
Fig. 3. The photovoltaic power generation potential for an optimally fixed tilted 1 kWp system for Bangladesh [60].
to the spatial resolution of wind data, there could be some spots installed capacity of each storage technology is based on the
with good wind speed profiles that may not have been captured, requirement of energy-to-power ratio and the economic
especially in the coastal areas. The impact of such data limitations performance.
should be assessed when better data are available. Biomass was divided into three categories: solid wastes, solid
Additionally, the model utilises the potential of storage tech- residues and biogas. The potential of biomass for Bangladesh was
nologies in each of the regions. The Energy-to-Power ratios and the obtained from Ref. [75] and divided into different sub-regions, ac-
efficiencies of the storage technologies are given in Ref. [31]. The cording to the area and population of each region. The cost
Fig. 4. The seven sub-regions in Bangladesh and the grid connections.
calculations for the three biomass categories were done according from around 70e80 V/MWh in 2014 [80,81]. It should be noted that
to the data from International Energy Agency [76] and Intergov- 14.9 V/MWh is globally the least cost observed, but a range of
ernmental Panel on Climate Change [77]. For solid fuels a 50 V/ton 20e25 V/MWh is regularly achieved worldwide. In addition,
gate fee is assumed for 2015, increasing to 100 V/ton for the year globally the cost of batteries have decreased by 77% in the last 7
2050 for waste incineration plants and this is reflected in the years [23,82,83]. The cost of onshore and offshore wind power
negative costs for solid waste [31]. plants, particularly offshore wind plants are expected to decline
At present, geothermal energy does not play a critical role in sharply in the future [84]. The sharp decline in cost is possible due
Bangladesh. However, the model input consists future geothermal to the expected learning curves [85].
potential for all the seven sub-regions, which is calculated ac- The price of electricity for 2015 for the three prosumer cate-
cording to the method described in Ref. [30]. gories were assumed from Dhaka Electric Supply Company Limited
The lower and upper limits for renewables are given in the [86] and future prices until 2050 were calculated according to the
Supplementary Material (Table S3). methodology described in Breyer and Gerlach [87]. The electricity
prices for Bangladesh are provided in the Supplementary Material
3.3.3. Financial and technical assumptions (Table S1).
The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for Bangladesh is
set at 7% in real terms for the investments considering the stability 3.3.4. Electricity demand
and the potential of renewable energy in the country. For resi- The electricity demand is taken from Power System Master Plan
dential rooftop PV installations, WACC of 4% was used due to lower report 2010 [88] and 2016 [40] and extrapolated until 2050 with
financial return requirements. The increase or decrease in WACC the provided growth rate. The hourly load profile for electricity for
does not alter the costs of electricity considerably [19]. each sub-region is calculated as a fraction of the total demand in
The economic assumptions for capital expenditures (CAPEX) Bangladesh based on synthetic load data according to Toktarova
and operating expenditures (OPEX fixed and variable) and the et al. [89], weighted by the sub-region’s population.
technical assumptions for efficiency and lifetimes of the different
technologies utilised in the energy transition of Bangladesh are 3.4. Description of the scenarios
tabulated in the Appendix Table A1 and A2 Due to absence of
country specific cost projection data, a global average of the For this study, four scenarios were developed after reviewing
financial cost projections were assumed. The financial assumptions the local energy policies and future energy planning. The scenarios
of important renewable technologies are based on the steady cost help to focus on the policy options leading to a transition towards
decline from around the world and the expected fast cost decline 100% RE system taking into account the GHG emissions reduction
with faster capacity additions in the future. This is reported in a and the overall system cost. The description of the scenarios and
number of established studies [23,78,79]. It is assumed that with the assumptions are given in Table 3.
the ongoing improvements in technology and production pro-
cesses, the costs of materials and installations will fall considerably 3.5. Model calibration
from their current values until 2050. For example, the cost of power
produced from solar PV has gone down to 14.9 V/MWh in 2017 The model was calibrated using the 2015 generation and
Table 3
Detailed description of the four scenarios.
Scenario Detailed description
Best Policy Scenario (BPS) This scenario focusses on achieving a 100% renewable energy system by 2050. To achieve the stated target, three main
assumptions were considered. First, no new fossil fuel capacities are allowed to be installed after 2015, except gas fired power
plants, and the phased out capacities can only be replaced by renewables and storage, also imports were restricted from the
neighbouring countries after 2015. Second, the model assumes a carbon cost of 9 V in 2015, which increases in 5-year time
steps to 28, 53, 61, 68, 75, 100 and 150 V per ton till 2050, respectively. Third, no more than 20% growth in RE installed
capacities share compared to total power generation capacities can be achieved for each 5-year time step, to avoid
meaningless increase in capacities.
The BPS scenario incorporates the potential role of prosumers (rooftop PV, optionally with batteries) during the system
transition using an exogenously estimated prosumer capacity. The prosumer potential calculation is performed using an
hourly optimisation model, which installs rooftop PV and optionally battery systems for residential, commercial and industrial
customers. The target function for prosumers is cost minimisation of the consumed electricity, calculated as a sum of
generation, annual costs and cost of electricity consumed from the grid. The prosumers have an option to sell the excess
generation to the grid at an assumed price of 0.02 V/kWh, after fulfilling their own demand, but not more than 50% of their
own generation. The limit on prosumer installations is 20% of the total electricity demand in 2050.
Best Policy Scenario with no carbon cost This scenario is similar to the BPS scenario. The only difference is the removal of the assumed GHG emissions costs throughout
(BPS-NCC) the transition period. Currently, Bangladesh does not have any GHG emissions costs. There is no evidence that any costs will be
applied in the future as well. Thus, a scenario without GHG emissions costs will show the potential role of renewables as
derived by their cost competitiveness. In addition, this scenario does not limit fossil fuels by 2050, as in the BPS scenario.
Current Policy Scenario (CPS) This scenario is based on the national ‘Power System Master Plan 2016’ [40]. This plan was developed to diversify the power
generation sources and transform the country into a high-income country by 2041. As the current domestic natural gas supply
is diminishing, the increasing electricity demand is expected to be satisfied by importing fossil fuels. In addition, electricity
imports will play a significant part in satisfying the growing demand. While, local renewables are expected to play a minor role
in the overall electricity generation mix of the country. However, for this scenario a GHG emissions costs similar to the BPS
scenario is assumed. The levying of carbon tax would bring a huge monetary benefit annually to the Government of
Bangladesh. The implementation of a carbon tax was previously discussed on a wide scale [90], however before the elections in
2017, it was scrapped citing various reasons [91]. The main reason being that a carbon tax would increase the price of
electricity and raise living costs. The authors have not considered a scenario by the National Committee to Protect Oil, Gas,
Mineral Resources Power and Ports (NCBD), a study that appears to show a possibility of more renewable alternative as
opposed to the proposed PSMP plan [40]. Because the study analyses the case of 2041 without presenting any detail of what
happens in between. Moreover, a high renewable future that was intended to be demonstrated by the NCBD report is
investigated in much detail in the BPS and BPS-NCC scenarios.
The masterplan by the Government of Bangladesh shows that electricity imports will be an important factor to satisfy the
future demand growth, for stable base load supply and supply diversification [40]. In 2015, Bangladesh imported 500 MW of
power from India. The 3.8 TWh of imported electricity contributed about 9.5% to the total consumption in that year [46,92]. In
addition to an increasing capacity of imports from India, Bangladesh plans to import power from the neighbouring countries of
Bhutan, Myanmar and Nepal. The future share of imports is expected to rise to around 15e25% of the total power generation
until 2041 [39].
In order to account for electricity imports in the LUT modelling tool, a ‘Deflated demand’ approach was adopted. In this, the
imported electricity is subtracted from the total demand and the new residual demand is used as the input for the simulation.
This logic follows the prosumer approach, so that finally the domestic residual system demand is optimised. As the
Government of Bangladesh wants to use the imported electricity to meet the base load, this methodology may be a better way
to represent the role of imported electricity in the power system. As Bangladesh will have power purchase agreements with
the respective neighbouring countries for imported electricity, assuming a constant hourly import is a simplified way to
capture the hourly distribution.
Current policy scenario with no carbon This scenario is similar to the CPS scenario, except the consideration of GHG emissions costs, similar to the BPS-NCC scenario.
costs (CPS-NCC)
installed capacities for the different power technologies obtained scenarios, respectively are presented in Fig. 5.
from the Government of Bangladesh [40]. This was done by LCOE is highest for CPS and CPS-NCC scenarios for all the tran-
reproducing the 2015 results for each of the scenarios using the sition years. These two scenarios are primarily comprised of fossil
installed power plant capacities and demand data, the results for fuels, particularly natural gas and oil in the initial years of the
the energy generation by each technology is in agreement with the transition and later on supported by coal power plants. GHG
actual generation in 2015. All scenarios use this result as a starting emissions costs have a huge impact on the total LCOE in all the
point and continue to 2050 depending on the intended scenario scenarios, particularly the CPS scenario, where the total LCOE in
constraints as discussed in Table 3. 2050 is higher by 69% in comparison to its LCOE in 2015. The
combination of high GHG emissions costs and close to 90% fossil
4. Results fuels in total electricity generation in 2050 are primary reasons for
the high LCOE. Completely abolishing the GHG emissions costs
The optimised results with respect to the cost structure, (CPS-NCC scenario) during the transition, decreases the LCOE in
installed capacities of generation and storage technologies and comparison to the CPS scenario, however, the LCOE is still higher
annual GHG emissions in the transition period will be presented as than the two BPS scenarios and has very high GHG emissions,
follows. which is to be explained in section 4.6.
Fossil fuels are associated with a ‘fuel cost’ i.e. cost of producing
4.1. Cost structure of the transition a unit of electricity from a particular fuel. For the year 2015, oil is
associated with the highest fuel cost of 52.5 V/MWh (89.3 V/bbl)
The results related to the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) in and natural gas of 21.8 V/MWh (0.23 V/Nm3). The high fuel costs
the transition period for the BPS, BPS-NCC, CPS and CPS-NCC associated with natural gas and oil, contribute to about 80% of the
Fig. 5. The LCOE distribution according to each technology in the transition years from 2015 to 2050 for a) BPS; b) BPS-NCC; c) CPS; and d) CPS-NCC scenarios.
total generation, and the associated costs of emissions contribute to similarity in cost trends between BPS and BPS-NCC scenarios, it can
the LCOE in 2015. The fuel costs for all the fossil fuel technologies be seen that LCOE remains lower in the BPS-NCC scenarios. This is
and the emissions costs assumed are provided in the Supplemen- because of the avoided costs of GHG emissions in this scenario and
tary Material (Fig. S6 and Table S6 respectively). After 2015, the the reduced costs of achieving a faster transition as observed in the
LCOE decreases in 2020 for all the scenarios, due to the influx of BPS scenario. The impact of fast transition requirements of the BPS
flexible power generation technologies, however, after 2020 the scenario has resulted in 100% RE in 2050, as compared to 94% for
LCOE increases for the CPS scenarios. the BPS-NCC scenario for the same year. While the LCOE for BPS-
For the BPS scenarios Fig. 5a and b, LCOE decreases by about NCC scenario presented in Fig. 5b shows the fossil fuel role, it can
20e28% in 2020 compared to 2015, primary factors being the be inferred that Bangladesh could remove significant power sector
reduction in utilisation of expensive fossil fuels and the associated GHG emissions by promoting solar and battery storage technolo-
GHG emissions costs. The power generation from expensive, inef- gies (subject to be detailed later). Note that by 2050, emissions in
ficient and inflexible oil and diesel based power plants reduced the BPS scenario becomes zero. However, the relatively higher LCOE
considerably from 15% in 2015 to almost 0% in 2020. This decrease by 2050 of 4% is due to the increased investments in renewable
is in agreement with the government’s policy of not installing new capacities and the need to install storage technologies to arrive at
oil and diesel based power plants in the transition years, though 100% RE.
unlike their vision, these scenarios replace the created fossil fuel For the CPS scenarios with and without GHG emissions costs as
generation shortfall with an increased electricity production from given in Fig. 5c and d, LCOE decreases slightly in the year 2020 in
renewables especially solar, biomass and municipal waste. comparison to 2015, due to the planned investments in relatively
Specifically, the large biomass and municipal waste resource cheaper fossil fuel generators than oil-based power plants. In Fig. 5c
discussed in section 3.2, plays a major role in replacing the fossil and d, corresponding LCOE increases in the transition years from
fuel generation as observed from 2015 to 2020. With the falling cost 2020 onwards. In comparison to BPS scenarios, LCOE for CPS sce-
of solar PV during the transition years, it becomes the main source narios are higher for all the years. In 2050, LCOE for CPS and CPS-
of electricity generation in both BPS scenarios. Despite the NCC scenarios are 58% and 25% higher than the BPS scenario,
Fig. 6. Total annual costs of the system for all the scenarios in the transition years.
respectively. The low price of imported electricity may have fossil fuels, including nuclear energy, and electricity imports from
reduced total LCOE in transition years, as compared to the expen- neighbouring countries. The primary electricity generation in 2015
sive electricity generation options in Bangladesh. It can be is dominated by natural gas in the CPS scenarios, due to its vast
concluded that a solar-based policy would provide Bangladesh the domestic availability. However, due to forecasted depletion of the
best transition option, as compared to the present fossil-based local natural gas reserves [41], electricity generation was planned
policy. to shift to coal in 2020, which is demonstrated in Fig. 7c and d. As
The total annual cost of the system in 2050 for all the scenarios a consequence, in 2020, coal and natural gas power plants
is given in Fig. 6. The total cost is calculated as a sum of annual costs contribute 75% and 19% of the electricity generation, respectively.
from all the power generation capacities, energy generation, gen- After 2020, following the government plans, scenarios show an
eration ramping of the technologies, storage technologies and increased role of natural gas, nuclear and electricity imports.
transmission costs of the generated electricity for each of the Evidently, the share of renewables in primary electricity genera-
transition year. The BPS-NCC scenario shows the lowest cost, which tion is almost invisible.
suggests economically to be a favourable scenario, however this
scenario does not give a 100% RE system. The CPS scenario has the
highest cost due to the combination of high fuel and emissions 4.3. Installed capacities of the technology mix in the transition
costs followed by CPS-NCC scenario. On the other hand, BPS sce-
narios with and without GHG emissions costs show that a high The installed capacities of different technologies in the tran-
share of renewables in the energy system does not increase the sition period for the four scenarios is shown in Fig. 7 and abso-
total cost of the system. The annual cost of the BPS-NCC scenario is lute numbers can be found in the Supplementary Material
lowest while, the BPS scenario costs about 4% more than the BPS- (Table S2).
NCC scenario. In the BPS scenarios, the fossil fuel dominated capacity mix
gradually changes to renewables, dominated by solar PV in 2050.
For the year 2015, total installed capacity is around 10 GW. For the
4.2. Primary electricity generation during the energy transition BPS and BPS-NCC scenario, capacity increases to around 530 GW
period and 457 GW in the year 2050. The difference in installed capacities
is due to the fact that in the BPS scenario, additional capacities are
The previous section shows that Bangladesh obtains a better required for converting electricity to RE-based synthetic natural gas
transition option if it emphasises on a solar-based policy by pro- (SNG) via methanation plants (Fig. 7a), which is further utilised by
ducing cheaper electricity for its customers. In this section, we will CCGT and OCGT power plants to produce electricity [93,94]. This is
examine detailed electricity generation by each technology type in further emphasised by the installed capacities of gas storage
all the scenarios as presented in Fig. 7. technologies (Fig. 8). However, for the BPS-NCC scenario, these
For the BPS scenarios, phasing out of fossil fuels, especially gas, extra capacities are not needed due to utilisation of fossil gas.
is substituted by an increase in generation from solar PV and The BPS scenario places an additional financial constraint on the
biomass for the year 2020. However, it should be noted that the system to install renewables, particularly, solar PV which can be
share of biomass remains constant after 2025 because of full observed from relatively higher installed capacities in each of the
exploitation of the maximum resource potential assumed for the transition years in comparison to the BPS-NCC scenario. To reduce
scenarios while, that of solar PV increases throughout the transi- the overall cost of the system, the BPS scenario invests at a faster
tion. The application of GHG emissions costs to the BPS scenario rate in RE technologies, which aim at reducing GHG emissions.
enforces a fast decrease in electricity generation from natural gas However, the BPS-NCC scenario still leads to very high penetration
from 2035 onwards, which finally reaches zero in 2050 as (94% of the annual generation) of renewables in 2050. The overall
compared to the BPS-NCC scenario that expects approximately 6% trend shows that the cost decline of solar PV with batteries (see
electricity generation from fossil gas in 2050. section 4.4 for additional information) is the main factor for high
On contrary, CPS scenarios rely on electricity generation from penetration in both BPS scenarios. This finding is similar to the
Fig. 7. Primary electricity generation in the transition years for a) BPS; b) BPS-NCC; c) CPS; and d) CPS-NCC scenarios.
results presented in Solomon et al. [6]. For the CPS scenarios, in Fig. 9c and d, sub-region’s installed
The technology mix for the CPS scenarios mirrors policy direc- capacities are based on coal, gas and nuclear. The region of Khulna
tion of the government to invest in fossil fuels (Fig. 8c and d). In has a share of around 77% and Chittagong accounts for 57% of the
comparison to the BPS scenarios, these pathways show an total coal capacity installed in Bangladesh. The nuclear power plant
increasing trend in installations of coal, natural gas and nuclear at Ruppur in the Rajshahi region is planned to be commissioned
capacities. With negligible renewable capacity addition, the share from 2023 to 24 and the government plans to install more capac-
of solar PV remains constant during the transition, maintaining the ities in the future. This is assumed to be constructed at the same
current relatively small capacity mix throughout the transition location, therefore the installed capacities are located only in the
period. Overall, it can be seen that Bangladesh pushes itself into a Rajshahi region. The installed capacity of nuclear power plants is
vulnerable position with respect to energy security by following a about 7 GW in 2050.
path that leads to significant dependence on fossil fuel imports.
For the BPS scenarios, Fig. 9a and b, in each region, installed
4.4. The role of energy storage technologies in the transition
share of solar PV is the highest. The PV share is between 20 and 83%,
lowest being in the region of Barisal and highest in the region of
This section shows that the need for energy storage technolo-
Khulna. In the year 2050, it is observed that solar PV and battery
gies depend on scenarios as presented in Fig. 10. Scenarios
provide low-cost electricity to power the increasing demand. The
emphasising on high shares of RE lead to a large scale energy
BPS-NCC scenario has a lower aggregated total installed capacity,
storage as compared to the current policy direction of the country,
however, some regions show an increase in their individual total
which plans to rely heavily on fossil fuel generators. In the initial
capacities. The regions of Sylhet and Barisal show an increase in
years, due to a lower share of renewables in the system, the model
total installed capacities primarily due to utilisation of the existing
builds the most cost effective storage options, which can provide
installed gas turbines and further additional installations in 2050,
diurnal energy transfer depending on the scenarios. For the BPS
as synthetic gas is not created, which can be later used to generate
scenarios, prosumer batteries appear first in 2025, due to higher
power, rather the system uses the available natural gas. This sce-
penetration of prosumer PV in the system, which is followed by
nario does not enforce a transition to a fully renewable energy
utility-scale batteries in 2030. The trend is similar for storage ca-
system in 2050.
pacity installations and storage output for both BPS scenarios,
Fig. 8. Installed capacity mix in the transition years for a) BPS; b) BPS-NCC; c) CPS; and d) CPS-NCC scenarios.
except for gas storage, however, the absolute numbers differ gas storage is very low in comparison to batteries as seen from
significantly. As discussed before, the BPS scenario emphasises on Fig. 10a. Gas storage provides around 6% of electricity to the total
faster transition through RE penetration in order to comply with electricity demand in the year 2050. It should be noted that the
the GHG emissions costs constraint. As a result, Fig. 10 shows a capex of gas storage is rather small compared to battery storage
huge installation of gas storage for the BPS scenario and almost per unit stored energy, which is the reason why the LCOE of the
zero for the BPS-NCC scenario. The order of storage technology entire energy system further declines (Fig. 5a).
deployment observed in this study follows the requirement of the Storage requirement in the CPS scenarios are very different in
penetration-storage-curtailment nexus discussed in Ref. [95]. comparison to the BPS scenarios, as the storage requirements of
Batteries transfer daytime PV generation to the evening and night fossil fuels are different. This is observed from the installed ca-
hours on a daily basis and disruption of this cycle or peak demand pacities of storage technologies and their outputs in Fig. 11a and
is taken care by CCGT and OCGT power plants, which run on fossil b.
gas for the BPS-NCC scenario. Batteries provide the system with
required flexibility and a cost effective option than utilising
4.5. Effects of monsoon on a fully renewable energy system
balancing from fossil fuel power plants for electricity generation.
The share of electricity provided by batteries in total electricity
Solar PV as a resource is well distributed in all the sub-regions of
demand is 50% and 55% in the year 2050, for the BPS and BPS-NCC
Bangladesh, for most parts of the year except for some months in
scenario, respectively. The increasing share of solar PV (Fig. 7a and
the monsoon season. Batteries are used on a daily cycle to store
b) corresponds to the rising share of battery output (Fig. 10), as
solar electricity and satisfy the evening and night time demands in
hybrid solar PV-battery systems evolve as a least cost combination
a fully renewable energy system. A slight change in the daily cycle
to provide electricity until 2050. Gas storage for the BPS scenario is
of batteries is observed from days 175e275. This is due to onset of
utilised from the year 2045 onwards, when the share of renew-
the monsoon season, where batteries are not charged to their full
ables crosses 96%, however huge installed capacities of the gas
capacity. However, in summer months, excess electricity from the
storage are observed in the year 2050. The electricity output from
solar PV is converted to synthetic natural gas and stored in gas
Fig. 9. Installed capacities according to the sub-regions of Bangladesh in 2050 for a) BPS; b) BPS-NCC; c) CPS; and d) CPS-NCC scenarios.
storage. It is observed from Fig. 12, that the gas storage is fully The monsoon affects electricity generation from solar and as a
charged till the end of the summer season and slowly discharged result batteries cannot provide electricity for the night time de-
around 175th day of the year, to compensate the decrease in solar mand. The additional demand is met by PtG process utilising the
electricity generation. combined gas turbines to produce electricity from synthetic natural
The hourly dispatch of electricity in a monsoon week for the gas. Additionally, at some hours, electricity is imported from
capital region of Dhaka for the BPS scenario is shown in Fig. 13. neighbouring connected regions of Rangpur and Rajshahi to satisfy
Additionally, an hourly dispatch diagram for the non-monsoon the demand as observed from Supplementary Material Fig. S6. In
week can be found in the Supplementary Material (Fig. S5), the period of low solar radiation, gas turbines and electricity
where it is observed that the solar resource is excellent to satisfy transfer among sub-regions power the fully renewable energy
the daytime demand and also store excess electricity in batteries to system in Bangladesh.
satisfy the night time demand.
Fig. 10. Energy storage installed capacities and output by different storage technologies in the transition years for BPS (a) and BPS-NCC (b) scenarios.
4.6. Annual CO2 emissions in the transition period 5. Discussion
The annual net CO2 emissions for the four scenarios in the This study presents various energy transition pathways for
transition period is illustrated in Fig. 14. The direct CO2 emissions Bangladesh. The BPS scenarios, which are compatible with the Paris
released to the atmosphere are considered in this study. Particulate Agreement, lead to a least cost energy system in 2050 and are the
matter (PM) and other GHG emissions such as methane, nitrous best options for expanding the current energy system. Additionally,
oxide, ozone, chlorofluorocarbons and hydrofluorocarbons are not these scenarios avoid the risk of increase in GHG emissions and the
considered. It can be inferred that proportional reduction is likelihood for stranded investments in fossil fuel based capacities.
possible for other greenhouse gases and PM in the transition years On the contrary, it was shown that the government’s plan em-
for the BPS scenarios. phasises on the most polluting and expensive options. Conse-
The two BPS scenarios follow the same path until 2030, but after quently, its present policies are a serious national risk that exposes
2030 the additional constraint of GHG emissions costs causes the it to several vulnerabilities, such as high costs of electricity, energy
BPS scenario to incorporate more RE in order to reduce the GHG insecurity, and poor political trust. Similar risks were also reported
emissions to zero in 2050. The remaining GHG emissions in 2050 in Solomon et al. [6]. However, the level of risk for Bangladesh
for the BPS-NCC is due to the utilisation of fossil gas. The BPS sce- appears to be much higher and more complicated due to its bur-
narios show a slight increase in GHG emissions in 2025 due to the geoning population.
peak consumption of fossil gas in power generation, as the solar PV The first risk relates to domestically available resources.
and battery hybrid are not yet cost competitive. It should be noted Domestically available natural gas will be exhausted around 2031,
that, GHG emissions costs increases during the transition years at the current rate of extraction [96]. On the other hand, govern-
from 9 V/tCO2eq in 2015 to 150 V/tCO2eq in 2050. ment plans to install around 7 GW of coal capacities by 2020 and
On the contrary, with the same starting point in 2015, emis- even more in the later years. With the coal capacity being at
sions related to the CPS scenarios follow an upward trend due to 0.2 GW in 2015, building new capacities would require huge
negligible RE generation capacity in the transition years. The mobilisation of all resources. Currently, no new coal power plants
installation of coal and fossil gas based power plants release more have been constructed. This is on top of the risks associated with
and more GHG emissions into the atmosphere as the share of the planned nuclear power plants, which have the associated high
these technologies rises. The GHG emissions increase to 94.5 costs and other safety and environmental risks [97,98]. With these
MtCO2eq in 2030 and after that increase linearly to 256 MtCO2eq, as policies, Bangladesh not only imports the technology, but faces the
the generation from fossil fuels increases considerably. The GHG need for an increased volume of fossil and nuclear fuels to be
emissions grow by 981% in 2050 in comparison to the emissions in imported. The volatility of global fuel prices also makes the
2015. dependence on imported fossil fuels a high risk strategy. This
Fig. 11. Energy storage installed capacities and outputs by different storage technologies in the transition years for CPS (a) and CPS-NCC (b) scenarios.
Fig. 12. State of charge of battery (left) and gas storage (right) in the BPS scenario in 2050.
compounds into a significant national risk in terms of trade and provide electricity to each and every individual in a cost effective
energy security. On the other hand, investing in locally available way, moving away from expensive diesel generators. With low
abundant renewable energy resources such as solar PV will not seasonal variability of solar resource, solar-based power genera-
only decrease the GHG emissions, but also provide power to tion is ideal for the demand and supply situation in Bangladesh.
households living on remote islands, where grid extension has However, being one of the most densely populated countries, is-
been an issue. A combination of centralised and decentralised sues have been raised on the availability of land for huge utility-
solar PV systems will help achieve the government’s aim to scale PV installations. The total land area of Bangladesh is
Fig. 13. Hourly dispatch of electricity in a monsoon week in the Dhaka region for the BPS scenario in 2050. The x-axis represents a particular hour in a year and the y-axis represents
the capacity.
Fig. 14. GHG emission in the transition years from 2015 to 2050 for all the scenarios.
147,570 km2 [56]. Currently, the land area suitable for agricultural Bangladesh. The government is considering the options to utilise
purposes plus the portion covered by forests constitutes 81% of the Kaptai and other lakes, dams, beels, etc. which could provide
total land area. Installing 357 GW of ground mounted solar PV (as electricity to remote locations [102]. Further, new designs of
in the BPS year 2050) would require about 10% of the land area utility-scale power plants allowing crops to grown with them
from the remaining portion [56], assuming a PV module efficiency [103] and the various options of agricultural solar PV systems
of 30% in 2050 [99] and the method of Bogdanov and Breyer [42], [104e106], can be explored to reduce stress on the land area
leading to 1.9% of required total land area. Rooftop PV systems are requirements.
not considered since they can use the available roof area. The The other risk is related to the associated increase in GHG
upper limit in the model is set to 6% of the total land area that emissions. Bangladesh is one of the most climate vulnerable
would lead to a potential of about 1130 GW. It should be noted countries due to its low-lying areas, despite being a low emitter of
that water bodies, which could provide potential area for floating GHG emissions per capita. Continuing these emissions trend with
solar PV systems [100e103], cover about 12% of the area in the underlying fact will make the government appear reluctant in
protecting its citizens both locally and globally, leading to poor However, to implement the BPS scenario, Bangladesh needs to
political trust. have appropriate policies, institutions and public awareness.
The electricity sector in Bangladesh is grappling with various Development of the Sustainable and Renewable Energy Develop-
issues such as insufficient installed capacities, which are not able to ment Authority (SREDA) in 2014 was a step in the right direction,
satisfy the growing demand. Frequent blackouts and brown outs but this organisation has to be developed and strengthened. One
have become a daily part of the activities and incur huge losses to way to do this may be to collaborate with neighbouring countries
the GDP. Additionally, poor operational practices, inefficient tech- that are leading in renewable energy development. For example,
nologies and inadequate maintenance add to the issues of the en- India, which has a similar energy situation as Bangladesh, has
ergy sector. These scenarios show that Bangladesh has important improved the growth of installed capacities of renewables with an
alternatives to its present strategy. The results of the BPS scenario establishment of an exclusive ministry for renewables. This
show that, transition towards a 100% RE and zero emissions system together with its experience in successful implementation of solar
is financially viable compared to the CPS scenario, due to rapidly home systems (SHS) deployment programme to electrify its rural
declining renewable energy costs. The declining costs of renew- population [111], Bangladesh could lead in prosumer and utility-
ables, especially, solar PV during the transition years provides scale PV. It is acknowledged that barriers do exist towards
better cost competitive options as shown in both BPS scenarios. embracing renewables and moving away from the current fossil
Additionally, costs of the BPS scenarios would be even lower if the fuel mix. However, these barriers can be overcome by creating
government’s benchmark costs for solar PV is considered from innovative policies by the government. Innovative financing
neighbouring India [107]. Bangladesh should utilise the recent cost mechanisms can be adopted from other countries that have a
reductions in solar PV and tap into the growing market with local similar situation and are leading in large-scale RE deployment and
manufacturing and creating new jobs. adopted to local conditions. The government should encourage
The technological mix, transition trends and typical RE future local manufacturing of renewable energy systems in order to
observed in these scenarios are also common to several other reduce technology import costs and create new employment op-
studies that investigate the case for other geographic regions portunities [112].
[6,29,31]. Especially, recent studies on countries in the SAARC re-
gion, India [29] and Pakistan [31] grappling with similar issues as 5.1. Limitations of this study and future research needs
Bangladesh, show that a fully renewable energy future is possible
with solar PV and batteries forming the backbone of the energy This study tries to showcase techno-economic optimisation of
supply, subsequently with cost competitive electricity generation. the Bangladesh energy system through various scenarios, however,
With monsoon playing a big part in this region, the electricity future policy decisions will be based on various other factors. So,
system in India manages to overcome the decrease in solar PV with the conclusion and findings of this study should not be seen as
increase in generation from wind and hydropower plants, in prediction of the future but rather one of the various ways to
addition to utilising the transmission line connections for elec- achieve a common goal of zero GHG emissions. We directly assume
tricity exchange between the different regions [29,108]. However, the electrification of the currently un-electrified population
with limited availability of good wind conditions and hydropower, through being connected to the grid, however the growth in elec-
Bangladesh overcomes the decrease in solar PV output via increase trification will follow a different pathway. This is the next research
in electricity production from synthetic natural gas storage via focus to integrate rural electrification into the national energy
CCGT and OCGT turbines. This is a unique case for a country in the transition modelling.
Sun Belt region and having a high share of solar PV in the system The assumptions concerning various parameters used in this
[20] and this presents a case for regions that will be highly study shape the results of the various scenarios. Sensitivity anal-
dependent on solar PV, with no other resources to complement the ysis of the input parameters will alter the results but not drasti-
decrease in solar electricity production. Gas storage will be an cally, however this is recommended as future work. Higher spatial
important technology in a fully renewable energy system. For resolution of the data will provide more detailed insights and will
Bangladesh, already existing infrastructure of gas turbines can be better describe the regional variability. The results showcase only
utilised with a fuel switch, i.e., utilising synthetic natural gas in the power sector transition, however, addition of other sectors
place of fossil gas. such as transport and industry will have a major impact on the
The stability and reliability of a fully renewable energy system results.
on an hourly basis is provided by renewable technologies (mainly
solar PV), batteries, the Power-to-Gas process and gas turbines 6. Conclusion
utilising synthetic gas. Interaction of the above mentioned tech-
nologies can be observed from Figs. 12 and 13, showing the shifting In this study, two scenarios (namely CPS) selected based on
of daily electricity by batteries to the night hours and when there is the government’s policy direction and (BPS) created to study the
no electricity available from the batteries, the stored synthetic gas possibility of achieving high RE shares in the future were devised
is utilised by gas turbines to produce electricity. Additionally, to analyse the energy transition pathways for Bangladesh. One of
ancillary services are needed to stabilise and secure the electricity the Current Policy and the Best Policy scenarios was with GHG
system, which are provided by conventional generators today. emissions pricing. The key findings of the study are given below:
However, in a 100% RE-based system, synchronous condensers also A 100% RE-based power system is possible for Bangladesh by
called synchronous compensators, could provide all the ancillary 2050 with the cost of electricity lower than in 2015 for the BPS
services of conventional generators like fault current, inertia and scenarios. However, policy approach from the government in-
voltage support, while active power can be provided by renewable creases GHG emissions and electricity costs considerably in future
generators and storage technologies [35]. According to Oyewo et al. years. This implies that Bangladesh needs to exploit indigenous
[109], synthetic inertia provided by renewable technologies and renewable energy resources. It was observed that application of
batteries is extremely important for the stability of 100% RE sys- GHG emissions costs on the BPS scenario accelerates the transition
tems. Additional flexibility options such as grid integration be- towards zero emissions system, however, removing GHG emissions
tween countries would provide flexibility and stability to the power costs, does not drastically alter the capacity mix and generation by
system in Bangladesh [30,110]. 2050. It was observed that the electricity generation was based on
94% renewables and the remaining was fossil gas. If the system was appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
allowed to run until 2060e2070 with additional investments, it
would be fully based on renewables. So, Bangladesh can think CRediT authorship contribution statement
about the transition scenario even without enforcing GHG emis-
sions costs, but based on a least cost pathway. Ashish Gulagi: Investigation, Methodology, Visualization,
In the BPS scenarios, RE technologies produce enough electricity Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing. Manish Ram:
to cover the total electricity demand by 2050. The share of storage Methodology, Validation, Writing - original draft, Writing - review
technologies, especially batteries increases simultaneously as the & editing. A.A. Solomon: Methodology, Validation, Writing -
share of renewables increases, without increasing total cost of the original draft, Writing - review & editing. Musharof Khan: Meth-
system. Solar PV and batteries dominate the installed RE technol- odology, Investigation. Christian Breyer: Methodology, Supervi-
ogies due to their low costs and the excellent solar resource con- sion, Validation, Funding acquisition, Writing - review & editing.
ditions available in Bangladesh. The fast declining costs of solar PV
and batteries force the system to phase out fossil fuels including
Acknowledgements
nuclear energy. Additionally, there is available land area for PV
installations, along with new technologies such as floating PV and
The authors gratefully acknowledge the public financing of
efficiency improvements in PV technology, utilising the huge
Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation, for the ‘Neo-
resource potential would be beneficial for Bangladesh.
Carbon Energy’ project under the number 40101/14 which enabled
Overall, this study shows that Bangladesh entails serious na-
the LUT Energy System Transition model. AG would like to thank
tional risks that lead to several vulnerabilities such as high costs of
Fortum Foundation for the valuable scholarship. MR and CB
electricity, energy insecurity, and poor political trust due to its
gratefully acknowledge the public financing of Tekes, the Finnish
present policy direction. Similar risks are also observed for other
Funding Agency for Innovation, for the ‘Finnish Solar Revolution’
developing countries. However, the level of risk for Bangladesh
project under the number 880/31/2016. SAA and CB are also
appears to be much higher and complicated. This study shows that
grateful for the LUT REFLEX internal finances. The authors would
RE solves the trilemma of security, reliability and cost effective-
also acknowledge Arman Aghahosseini for the core set of diagrams,
ness of energy services, which are hampering the growth of
Dmitrii Bogdanov for the core LUT model and Francisco Javier
Bangladesh.
Farfan Orozco for some input data.
Declaration of competing interest
Appendix A
The authors declare that they have no known competing
financial interests or personal relationships that could have
Table A.1
Technical and financial assumptions of all energy system components used in the energy transition from 2015 to 2050 for Bangladesh. Assumptions are taken from Plebmann
et al. [113] and European Commission [114] and further references are individually mentioned.
Name of component 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Reference
PV rooftop - residential Capex V/kWp 1360 1169 966 826 725 650 589 537 [78]
Opex fix V/(kWp a) 20 17.6 15.7 14.2 12.8 11.7 10.7 9.8
Opex var V/(kWh) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lifetime years 30 30 35 35 35 40 40 40
PV rooftop - commercial Capex V/kWp 1360 907 737 623 542 484 437 397 [78]
Opex fix V/(kWp a) 20 17.6 15.7 14.2 12.8 11.7 10.7 9.8
Opex var V/(kWh) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lifetime years 30 30 35 35 35 40 40 40
PV rooftop - industrial Capex V/kWp 1360 682 548 459 397 353 318 289 [78]
Opex fix V/(kWp a) 20 17.6 15.7 14.2 12.8 11.7 10.7 9.8
Opex var V/(kWh) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lifetime years 30 30 35 35 35 40 40 40
PV optimally fixed-tilted Capex V/kWp 1000 580 466 390 337 300 270 246 [78]
Opex fix V/(kWp a) 15 13,2 11,8 10,6 9,6 8,8 8,0 7,4
Opex var V/(kWh) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lifetime years 30 30 35 35 35 40 40 40
PV single-axis tracking Capex V/kWp 1150 638 513 429 371 330 297 271 [78,115]
Opex fix V/(kWp a) 17.3 15.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0
Opex var V/(kWh) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lifetime years 30 30 35 35 35 40 40 40
Wind onshore Capex V/kW 1250 1150 1060 1000 965 940 915 900 [116]
Opex fix V/(kW a) 25 23 21 20 19 19 18 18
Opex var V/(kWh) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lifetime years 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
CSP (solar field, parabolic trough) Capex V/m2 270 240 220 200 180 170 150 140 [117,118]
Opex fix % 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
Opex var e 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lifetime years 25 25 25 25 30 30 30 30
Table A.1 (continued )
Geothermal power Capex V/kW 5250 4970 4720 4470 4245 4020 3815 3610 [114,119]
Opex fix V/(kW a) 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0
Opex var V/(kWh) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lifetime years 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
Water electrolysis Capex V/kW 800 685 500 380 340 310 280 260 [120,121]
Opex fix V/(kW a) 32 27 20 15 14 12 11 10
Opex var V/(kWh) 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012
Lifetime years 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Methanation Capex V/kW 492 421 310 234 208 190 172 160 [120,122]
Opex fix V/(kW a) 10 8 6 5 4 4 3 3
Opex var V/(kWh) 0.0015 0.0015 0.0015 0.0015 0.0015 0.0015 0.0015 0.0015
Lifetime years 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
CO2 direct air capture Capex V/kW 749 641 470 356 314 286 258 240
Opex fix V/(kW a) 29.9 25.6 18.8 14.2 12.6 11.4 10.3 9.6
Opex var V/(kWh) 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013
Lifetime years 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
CCGT Capex V/(kWel) 775 775 775 775 775 775 775 775 [123]
Opex fix V/(kWel a) 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4
Opex var V/(kWh) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Efficiency % 58 58 58 58 59 60 60 60
Lifetime years 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35
OCGT Capex V/(kWel) 475 475 475 475 475 475 475 475 [123]
Opex fix V/(kWel a) 14.25 14.25 14.25 14.25 14.25 14.25 14.25 14.25
Opex var V/(kWh) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Efficiency % 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43
Lifetime years 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35
Steam turbine (CSP) Capex V/(kWel) 760 740 720 700 670 640 615 600
Opex fix V/(kWel a) 15.2 14.8 14.4 14 13.4 12.8 12.3 12
Opex var V/(kWh) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Efficiency % 42 42 42 43 44 44 45 45
Lifetime years 25 25 25 25 30t 30 30 30
Steam turbine (coal-fired PP) Capex V/(kWel) 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 [123,122]
Opex fix V/(kWel a) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Opex var 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Efficiency % 45 45 45 45 46 46 47 47
Lifetime years 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
Nuclear PP Capex V/(kWel) 6210 6003 6003 5658 5658 5244 5244 5175 [114,124e126]
Opex fix V/(kW a) 162 157 157 137 137 116 116 109
Opex var V/(kWh,el) 0.0025 0.0025 0.0025 0.0025 0.0025 0.0025 0.0025 0.0025
Efficiency % 37 37 37 38 38 38 38 38
Lifetime years 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
Biomass CHP Capex V/kW 3400 2900 2700 2500 2300 2200 2100 2000
Opex fix V/(kW a) 238 203 189 175 161 154 147 140
Opex var V/(kWh) 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001
Efficiency % 36 37 40 43 45 47 47.5 48
Lifetime years 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Biogas CHP Capex V/kW 503 429 400 370 340 326 311 296
Opex fix V/(kW a) 20.1 17.2 16.0 14.8 13.6 13.0 12.4 11.8
Opex var V/(kWh) 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001
Efficiency % 35 36 39 42 44 46 46 47
Lifetime years 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Waste incinerator Capex V/kW 5940 5630 5440 5240 5030 4870 4690 4540
Opex fix V/(kW a) 267.3 253.35 244.8 235.8 226.35 219.15 211.05 204.3
Opex var V/(kWh) 0.0069 0.0069 0.0069 0.0069 0.0069 0.0069 0.0069 0.0069
Efficiency % 27 31 32.5 34 35.5 37 29.5 42
Lifetime years 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Biogas digester Capex V/kW 771 731 706 680 653 632 609 589
Opex fix V/(kW a) 30.8 29.2 28.2 27.2 26.1 25.3 24.3 23.6
Opex var V/(kWh) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Efficiency % 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Lifetime years 20 20 20 20 25 25 25 25
Biogas upgrade Capex V/kW 340 290 270 250 230 220 210 200 [127]
Opex fix V/(kW a) 27.2 23.2 21.6 20 18.4 17.6 16.8 16
Opex var V/(kWh) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Efficiency % 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98
Lifetime years 20 20 20 20 25 25 25 25
Battery, Li-ion Capex V/(kWhel) 600 300 200 150 120 100 85 75 [128]
(continued on next page)
Table A.1 (continued )
Opex fix V/(kWhel a) 24 12 8 6 4.8 4 3.4 3

Opex var V/(kWhthroughput) 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002
Efficiency % 90 91 92 93 94 95 95 95
Lifetime years 15 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Adiabatic compressed air energy storage (A-CAES) Capex V/kWh 35.0 35.0 33.0 31.1 30.4 29.8 28.0 26.3
Opex fix V/(kWh a) 0.46 0.46 0.43 0.40 0.40 0.39 0.36 0.34
Opex var V/(kWh) 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012
Efficiency % 54 59 65 70 70 70 70 70
Lifetime years 40 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
Gas storage Capex V/kWhth 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
Opex fix V/(kWh a) 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001
Opex var V/(kWh) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lifetime years 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Table A.2 [14] [IPCC], in: Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri, L.A. Meyer (Eds.), Intergov-
Energy to power ratio and self-discharge rates for storage technologies ernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2014: Synthesis
Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment
Technology Energy/Power Ratio (hrs) Self-Discharge [%] References Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014. Geneva.
[15] [UNFCC], United Nations Framework for Climate Change, “Climate
Battery 6 0 [113]
Displacement in Bangladesh, 2012. New York, https://unfccc.int/files/
PHES 8 0 [113,114]
adaptation/groups_committees/loss_and_damage_executive_committee/
A-CAES 100 0.1 [114] application/pdf/ds_bangladesh_report.pdf.
TES 8 0.2 [113] [16] M.R. Dastagir, Modeling recent climate change induced extreme events in
Gas storage 80$24 0 [113] Bangladesh: a review, Weather Clim. Extrem. 7 (2015) 49e60.
[17] S. Nikitas, Haunting Photos Show Effects of Climate Change in Bangladesh,
Huffington Post, New York, 2016.
[18] [HEI] - Health Effect Institute, State of Global Air-2017, Boston, 2017. https://
Appendix B. Supplementary data www.stateofglobalair.org/sites/default/files/SOGA2017_report.pdf.
[19] C. Breyer, D. Bogdanov, A. Gulagi, A. Aghahosseini, L.S.N.S. Barbosa,
O. Koskinen, et al., On the role of solar photovoltaics in global energy tran-
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at sition scenarios, Prog. Photovoltaics Res. Appl. 25 (8) (2017) 727e745.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.03.119. [20] C. Breyer, D. Bogdanov, A. Aghahosseini, A. Gulagi, M. Child, A.S. Oyewo, et
al., Solar photovoltaics demand for the global energy transition in the power
sector, Prog. Photovoltaics Res. Appl. 26 (8) (2018) 505e523.
References [21] N.M. Haegel, H. Atwater, T. Barnes, C. Breyer, A. Burrell, Y.M. Chiang, et al.,
Terawatt-scale photovoltaics: transform global energy, Science 364 (6443)
[1] [BP] - British Petroleum, Statistical Review of World Energy, British Petro- (2019) 836e838.
leum, London, 2018. https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy- [22] E. Williams, E. Hittinger, R. Carvalho, R. Williams, Wind power costs ex-
economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/downloads.html. pected to decrease due to technological progress, Energy Pol. 106 (2017)
[2] D. Jason, Global Energy Demand Could Grow 124% by 2100: Even Fossil Fuels 427e435.
Won’t Cut it, Greentech Media, Massachusetts, 2018. https://www. [23] O. Schmidt, A. Hawkes, A. Gambhir, I. Staffell, The future cost of electrical
greentechmedia.com/articles/read/energy-needs-in-2100-even-fossil-fuels- energy storage based on experience rates, Nat. Energy 2 (8) (2017) 17110.
will-not-cut-it. [24] Lazard, Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis - Version 12.0, 2018. New
[3] M. Kamaludin, Electricity consumption in developing countries, Asian J. Res. York, https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-of-
Soc. Sci. Humanit. 2 (2) (2013) 84e90. energy-version-120-vfinal.pdf.
[4] V. Cuming, L. Mills, D. Strahan, R. Boyle, K. Stopforth, S. Latimer, et al., Global [25] [IRENA] e International Renewable Energy Agency, Renewable Power Gen-
Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2015, UNEP and BNEF, Frankfurt am eration Costs in 2017, 2017. Abu Dhabi, https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/
Main, 2015. http://fs-unep-centre.org/sites/default/files/attachments/key_ IRENA/Agency/Publication/2018/Jan/IRENA_2017_Power_Costs_2018.pdf.
findings.pdf. [26] M. Child, C. Breyer, Vision and initial feasibility analysis of a recarbonised
[5] REN21, Renewables Global Futures Report: Great Debates toward 100% Finnish energy system for 2050, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 66 (2016)
Renewable Energy, REN21 Secretariat, Paris, 2017. http://www.ren21.net/ 517e536.
wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GFR-Full-Report-2017_webversion_3.pdf. [27] H. Lund, B.V. Mathiesen, Energy system analysis of 100% renewable energy
[6] A.A. Solomon, D. Bogdanov, C. Breyer, Solar driven net zero emission elec- systems-The case of Denmark in years 2030 and 2050, Energy 34 (5) (2009)
tricity supply with negligible carbon cost: Israel as a case study for Sun Belt 524e531.
countries, Energy 155 (2018) 87e104. [28] A. Blakers, B. Lu, M. Stocks, 100% renewable electricity in Australia, Energy
[7] [ADB] - Asian Development Bank, Booming South Asia Is Driving Economic 133 (2017) 471e482.
Growth in Asia, Asian Development Bank, Manila, 2017. https://www.adb. [29] A. Gulagi, D. Bogdanov, C. Breyer, The role of storage technologies in energy
org/news/features/booming-south-asia-driving-economic-growth-asia. transition pathways towards achieving a fully sustainable energy system for
[8] [BBS] - Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Bangladesh Sample Vital Statistics India, J. Energy Storage 17 (2018) 525e539.
2016, Statistics and Informatics Division (SID), Ministry Of Planning, Gov- [30] A. Gulagi, P. Choudhary, D. Bogdanov, C. Breyer, Electricity system based on
ernment Of The People’s Republic Of Bangladesh, Dhaka, 2017. 100% renewable energy for India and SAARC, PLoS One 12 (7) (2017).
[9] Trading Economics, Bangladesh GDP Forecast, Trading economics, New York, [31] A. Sadiqa, A. Gulagi, C. Breyer, Energy transition roadmap towards 100%
2015. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/south-korea/gdp. renewable energy and role of storage technologies for Pakistan by 2050,
[10] S.J. Ahmed, Tim Buckley, Simon Nicholas, Bangladesh Electricity Transition, Energy 147 (2018) 518e533.
Institute for Energy Economics Financial Analysis, Cleveland, 2016. http:// [32] A. Gulagi, D. Bogdanov, C. Breyer, A cost optimized fully sustainable power
ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Bangladesh-Electricity-Transition_- system for Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim, Energies 10 (5) (2017).
NOVEMBER-2016.pdf. [33] A.S. Oyewo, A. Aghahosseini, D. Bogdanov, C. Breyer, Pathways to a fully
[11] [WB] - World Bank, Access to Electricity, The World Bank, Washington DC, sustainable electricity supply for Nigeria in the mid-term future, Energy
2016. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.UR.ZS. Convers. Manag. 178 (2018) 44e64.
[12] M.A.H. Mondal, W. Boie, M. Denich, Future demand scenarios of Bangladesh [34] M. Barasa, D. Bogdanov, A.S. Oyewo, C. Breyer, A cost optimal resolution for
power sector, Energy Pol. 38 (11) (2010) 7416e7426. Sub-Saharan Africa powered by 100% renewables in 2030, Renew. Sustain.
[13] [NCBD] e National Committee of Bangladesh, The Alternative Power and Energy Rev. 92 (2018) 440e457.
Energy Plan for Bangladesh, National Committee to Protect Oil Gas Mineral [35] T.W. Brown, T. Bischof-Niemz, K. Blok, C. Breyer, H. Lund, B.V. Mathiesen,
Resources Power and Ports, Dhaka, 2017. http://ncbd.org/wp-content/ “Response to ‘Burden of proof: a comprehensive review of the feasibility of
uploads/2018/01/The-Alternative-Power-and-Energy-Plan-for-Bangladesh- 100% renewable-electricity systems, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 92 (2018)
by-NCBD.pdf. 834e847.
[36] H. Kenneth, C. Breyer, H. Lund, Status and perspectives on 100% renewable 346e352.
energy systems, Energy 175 (2019) 471e480. [63] M. Kurata, N. Matsui, Y. Ikemoto, H. Tsuboi, Do determinants of adopting
[37] A.A. Solomon, D.M. Kammen, D. Callaway, The role of large-scale energy solar home systems differ between households and micro-enterprises? Ev-
storage design and dispatch in the power grid: a study of very high grid idence from rural Bangladesh, Renew. Energy 129 (2018) 309e316.
penetration of variable renewable resources, Appl. Energy 134 (2014) [64] REN21, “Renewables 2018 global status report REN 21,” REN21 secretariat,
75e89. Paris. http://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/17-8652_
[38] A.A. Solomon, D.M. Kammen, D. Callaway, Investigating the impact of wind- GSR2018_FullReport_web_-1.pdf, 2018.
solar complementarities on energy storage requirement and the corre- [65] REN21, “Renewables 2017 global status report REN 21,” REN21 secretariat,
sponding supply reliability criteria, Appl. Energy 168 (2016) 130e145. Paris. www.ren21.net/gsr, 2017.
[39] M.A.H. Mondal, M. Denich, T. Mezher, Deployment of renewable energy [66] M.A.H. Baky, M.M. Rahman, A.S. Islam, Development of renewable energy
technologies in Bangladesh: long-term policy implications in power sector, sector in Bangladesh: current status and future potentials, Renew. Sustain.
Energy Strateg. Rev. 2 (3e4) (2014) 307e312. Energy Rev. 73 (2017) 1184e1197.
[40] [PD] - Power Division Power System Master Plan, Energy and Mineral Re- [67] M.D. Jacobson, C. Draxl, A. Jimenez, B.L. O’Neill, T. Capozzola, S. Haupt,
sources, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka, 2016. Assessing the Wind Energy Potential in Bangladesh: Enabling Wind Energy
http://powerdivision.portal.gov.bd/sites/default/files/files/powerdivision. Development with Data Products (No. NREL/TP-5000-71077, National
portal.gov.bd/page/4f81bf4d_1180_4c53_b27c_8fa0eb11e2c1/(E)_FR_ Renewable Energy Lab.(NREL), Golden, CO, 2018.
PSMP2016_Summary_revised.pdf. [68] M. Mosaddek Hossen, A.H.M. Sazedur Rahman, A.S. Kabir, M.M. Faruque
[41] A. Das, A. Halder, R. Mazumder, V.K. Saini, J. Parikh, K.S. Parikh, Bangladesh Hasan, S. Ahmed, Systematic assessment of the availability and utilization
power supply scenarios on renewables and electricity import, Energy 155 potential of biomass in Bangladesh, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 67 (2017)
(2018) 651e667. 94e105.
[42] D. Bogdanov, C. Breyer, North-East Asian Super Grid for 100% renewable [69] J. Farfan, C. Breyer, Structural Changes of the global power generation ca-
energy supply: optimal mix of energy technologies for electricity, gas and pacity towards sustainability and the risk of stranded investments, J. Clean.
heat supply options, Energy Convers. Manag. 112 (2016) 176e190. Prod. 141 (2016) 370e384.
[43] D. Bogdanov, J. Farfan, K. Sadovskaia, A. Aghahosseini, M. Child, A. Gulagi, et [70] M. Alam Hossain Mondal, L.M. Kamp, N.I. Pachova, Drivers, barriers, and
al., Radical transformation pathway towards sustainable electricity via strategies for implementation of renewable energy technologies in rural
evolutionary steps, Nat. Commun. 10 (1) (2019) 1077. areas in Bangladesh-An innovation system analysis, Energy Pol. 38 (8) (2010)
[44] S. Afanasyeva, D. Bogdanov, C. Breyer, Relevance of PV with single-axis 4626e4634.
tracking for energy scenarios, Sol. Energy 173 (2018) 173e191. [71] A.A. Solomon, D. Faiman, G. Meron, An energy-based evaluation of the
[45] A. Aghahosseini, C. Breyer, Assessment of geological resource potential for matching possibilities of very large photovoltaic plants to the electricity grid:
compressed air energy storage in global electricity supply, Energy Convers. Israel as a case study, Energy Pol. 38 (10) (2010) 5457e5468.
Manag. 169 (2018) 161e173. [72] A.A. Solomon, D. Faiman, G. Meron, The effects on grid matching and
[46] [BPDP] - Bangladesh Power Development Board, “Daily Generation Report,” ramping requirements, of single and distributed PV systems employing
Bangladesh Power Development Board, 2017. Dhaka, www.bpdb.gov.bd/ various fixed and sun-tracking technologies, Energy Pol. 38 (10) (2010)
bpdb. 5469e5481.
[47] S. Ahmed, M.T. Islam, M.A. Karim, N.M. Karim, Exploitation of renewable [73] P.K. Halder, N. Paul, M.U.H. Joardder, M. Sarker, Energy scarcity and potential
energy for sustainable development and overcoming power crisis in of renewable energy in Bangladesh, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 51 (2015)
Bangladesh, Renew. Energy 72 (2014) 223e235. 1636e1649.
[48] [SREDA] - Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority, [74] M.A. Shaikh, K.M.A. Chowdhury, S. Sen, M.M. Islam, Potentiality of wind
“Renewable Energy Master Database,” Sustainable and Renewable Energy power generation along the Bangladesh coast, in: AIP Conference Pro-
Development Authority, 2017. Dhaka, http://www.sreda.gov.bd/index.php/ ceedings 1919, 2017.
site/re_present_status. [75] K. Bunzel, V. Zeller, M. Buchhorn, F. Griem, D. Thra €n, Regionale und globale
[49] K. Sadovskaia, D. Bogdanov, S. Honkapuro, C. Breyer, “Power transmission r€
aumliche Verteilung von Biomassepotenzialen, 2009. Leipzig.
and distributions losses e a model based on available empirical data and [76] [IEA] - International Energy Agency, “Technology Roadmap e Bioenergy for
future trends for all countries globally, Int. J. Electr. Power Energy Syst. 107 Heat and Power, 2012. Paris, http://www.iea.org/publications/
(2019) 98e109. freepublications/publication/2012_Bioenergy_Roadmap_2nd_Edition_WEB.
[50] A. Islam, E.-S. Chan, Y.H. Taufiq-Yap, M.A.H. Mondal, M. Moniruzzaman, pdf.
M. Mridha, Energy security in Bangladesh perspective - an assessment and [77] [IPCC] - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Special Report on
implication, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 32 (2014) 154e171. Reneable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation, UNEP, Geneva,
[51] M.A. Habib, S. Chungpaibulpatana, Electricity generation expansion planning 2011. https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srren/SRREN_FD_SPM_final.
with environmental impact abatement: case study of Bangladesh, Energy pdf.
Procedia 52 (2014) 410e420. [78] [ETIP-PV] -, European Technology and Innovation Platform Photovoltaics,
[52] [UNFCC], United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, “The True Competitiveness of Solar PV, ETIP-PV, Munich, 2017.
“Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC),” Paris, 2015. http:// [79] W. Harry, Aktuelle Fakten zur Photovoltaik in Deutschland, Fraunhofer ISE,
www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/PublishedDocuments/Bangladesh First/INDC_ Freiburg, 2017.
2015_of_Bangladesh.pdf. [80] G. Parkinson, Solar Heads to 1c/KWh before 2020 after Mexico Sets Record
[53] [UNFCC], United Nations Framework for Climate Change, “Bangladesh Signs Low, RenewEconomy, Sydney, 2017. http://reneweconomy.com.au/%
Paris Agreement, 2016. United Nations, New York, https://www.un.int/ 0Asolar-heads-to-1ckwh-before-2020-after-mexico-sets-record-low-62163/
bangladesh/sites/www.un.int/files/Bangladesh/Commiittees1516/press_ ?%0Autm_source¼REþDailyþNewsletter&utm_
release_29_on_bangladesh_signs_paris_agreement_.pdf. campaign¼7ebf9419b8-EMAIL_%0ACAMPAIGN_2017_11_20&
[54] [IRENA] - International Renewable Energy Agency, Off-Grid Renewable En- utm_medium¼email&utm_term¼0_46a1943223-%
ergy Systems: Status and Methodological Issues, 2015. Abu Dhabi, http:// 0A7ebf9419b8-40387973.
www.irena.org/documentdownloads/publications/irena_off-grid_ [81] [IEA -PVPS] e International Renewable Energy Agency e Phtotovoltaic Po-
renewable_systems_wp_2015.pdf. wer Systems Programme, Trends 2017 in Photovoltaic Applications: Survey
[55] M. Ahamad, F. Tanin, Next power generation-mix for Bangladesh: outlook Report of Selected IEA Countries between 1992 - 2016, IEA e PVPS, St. Ursen,
and policy priorities, Energy Pol. 60 (2013) 272e283. 2017. http://www.iea-pvps.org/fileadmin/dam/public/report/statistics/IEA-
[56] Trading Economics, “Bangladesh e Agricultural Land (% of Total Land Area), PVPS_Trends_2017_in_Photovoltaic_Applications.pdf.
Trading economics, New York, 2015. https://tradingeconomics.com/ [82] B. Nykvist, M. Nilsson, Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric ve-
bangladesh/agricultural-land-percent-of-land-area-wb-data.html. hicles, Nat. Clim. Change 5 (4) (2015) 329e332.
[57] S. Shidore, J.W. Busby, What explains India’s embrace of solar? State-led [83] F. Lambert, Electric vehicle battery cost dropped 80% in 6 years down to
energy transition in a developmental polity, Energy Pol. 129 (2019) $227/kWh e tesla claims to be below $190/kWh, Electrek, 2017. https://
1179e1189. electrek.co/2017/01/30/electric-vehicle-battery-cost-dropped-%0A80-6-
[58] P.K.S. Rathore, D.S. Chauhan, R.P. Singh, Decentralized solar rooftop photo- years-227kwh-tesla-190kwh/.
voltaic in India: on the path of sustainable energy security, Renew. Energy [84] C. Kemfert, T. Burandt, K. Hainsch, K. Lo € ffler, P.Y. Oei, von Hirschhausen,
131 (2019) 297e307. Nuclear power unnecessary for climate protection: there are more cost-
[59] D. Gielen, F. Boshell, D. Saygin, M.D. Bazilian, N. Wagner, R. Gorini, The role of efficient alternatives, DIW Econ. Bull. 7 (48) (2017) 498e506.
renewable energy in the global energy transformation, Energy Strategy Rev. [85] D.E.H.J. Gernaat, D.P. Van Vuuren, J. Van Vliet, P. Sullivan, D.J. Arent, Global
24 (2019) 38e50. long-term cost dynamics of offshore wind electricity generation, Energy 76
[60] Solargis, Solar Resource Maps of Bangladesh, ESMAP and The World Bank, (2014) 663e672.
Washington DC, 2017. https://solargis.com/maps-and-gis-data/download/ [86] [DESCO], Dhaka Electricity Supply Company Limited, “Dhaka Electricity
bangladesh/. Supply Company Limited, Governement of Bangaldesh, Dhaka, 2017. https://
[61] [PD] e Power Division, Renewable Energy Policy of Bangladesh, Ministry of desco.org.bd/bangla/.
Power, Energy and Mineral Resources, Government of Bangladesh, Dhaka, [87] C. Breyer, A. Gerlach, Global overview on grid-parity, Prog. Photovoltaics Res.
2008. https://www.iea.org/media/pams/bangladesh/Bangladesh_ Appl. 21 (1) (2013) 121e136.
RenewableEnergyPolicy_2008.pdf. [88] [PD] - Power Division, Power System Master Plan, Government of
[62] M.E. Karim, F. Azim, B. Bangladesh, Yearbk. Int. Environ. Law 27 (2016) Bangladesh, Dhaka, 2011. https://policy.asiapacificenergy.org/sites/default/
files/PSMP2010_reduced.pdf. [108] A. Gulagi, M. Ram, C. Breyer, The role of transmission grid and solar wind
[89] A. Toktarova, L. Gruber, M. Hlusiak, D. Bogdanov, C. Breyer, Long-term load complementarity in mitigating the monsoon effect in a fully sustainable
forecasting in high resolution for all countries globally, Int. J. Electr. Power electricity system for India, IET Renew. Power Gener. 14 (2) (2020) 254e262.
Energy Syst. 111 (2019) 160e181. [109] A. Oyewo, J. Farfan, P. Peltoniemi, C. Breyer, Repercussion of large scale hydro
[90] S. Islam, Climate-threatened Bangladesh to Impose Carbon Tax in June, dam deployment: the case of Congo Grand Inga hydro project, Energies 11
Thomson Reuters Foundation, Dhaka, 2017. https://www.reuters.com/ (4) (2018) 972.
article/us-bangladesh-climatechange-carbontax/climate-threatened- [110] C. Breyer, D. Bogdanov, A. Aghahosseini, A. Gulagi, M. Fasihi, On the techno-
bangladesh-to-impose-carbon-tax-in-june-idUSKBN18J00V. economic benefits of a global energy interconnection, Econ. Energy Environ.
[91] A. Siddique, Bangladesh Backtracks on Carbon Tax Proposal Ahead of Elec- Policy 9 (2020), https://doi.org/10.5547/2160-5890.9.1.cbre [not yet avail-
tion Year, Climate Home News, Dhaka, 2017. http://www. able], in press.
climatechangenews.com/2017/06/02/bangladesh-backtracks-carbon-tax- [111] A. Newcombe, E.K. Ackom, Sustainable solar home systems model: applying
proposal-ahead-election/. lessons from Bangladesh to Myanmar’s rural poor, Energy Sustain. Dev. 38
[92] [IREDe], Integrated Research and Action for Development, “Economic Ben- (2017) 21e33.
efits of BangladesheIndia Electricity Trade, USAID and SARI/EI, New Delhi, [112] M. Ram, A. Aghahosseini, C. Breyer, Job creation during the global energy
2017. https://irade.org/Executive Summary -India Bangladesh.pdf. transition towards 100% renewable power system by 2050, Technol. Fore-
[93] M. Go €tz, J. Lefebvre, F. Mo€rs, A. McDaniel Koch, F. Graf, S. Bajohr, et al., cast. Soc. Change 151 (119682) (2020).
Renewable Power-to-Gas: a technological and economic review, Renew. [113] G. Pleßmann, M. Erdmann, M. Hlusiak, C. Breyer, Global energy storage de-
Energy 85 (2016) 1371e1390. mand for a 100% renewable electricity supply, Energy Procedia 46 (2014)
[94] M. Fasihi, D. Bogdanov, C. Breyer, Long-term hydrocarbon trade options for 22e31.
the Maghreb region and Europe-renewable energy based synthetic fuels for [114] [EC] - European Commission, ETRI 2014 - Energy Technology Reference In-
a net zero emissions world, Sustainability 9 (2017) 306. dicator Projections for 2010-2050, EC Joint Research Centre Institute for
[95] A.A. Solomon, D. Bogdanov, C. Breyer, Curtailment-storage-penetration Energy and Transport, Petten, 2014.
nexus in energy transition, Appl. Energy 235 (2019) 1351e1368. [115] M. Bolinger, J. Seel, Utility-scale Solar 2015: an Empirical Analysis of Project
[96] BD News, Gas Reserves in Bangladesh to Last till 2031 at Current Extraction Cost, Performance and Pricing Trends in the United States, Lawrence Ber-
Rate: State Minister Nasrul Hamid, bdnews24.com, Dhaka, 2015. keley National Laboratory, Berkley, 2016. https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/
[97] M. Ram, M. Child, A. Aghahosseini, D. Bogdanov, A. Lohrmann, C. Breyer, utilityscale-%0Asolar-2015-empirical.
A comparative analysis of electricity generation costs from renewable, fossil [116] L. Neij, Cost development of future technologies for power generation-A
fuel and nuclear sources in G20 countries for the period 2015-2030, J. Clean. study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assess-
Prod. 199 (2018) 687e704. ments, Energy Pol. 36 (6) (2008) 2200e2211.
[98] M. Child, O. Koskinen, L. Linnanen, C. Breyer, Sustainability guardrails for [117] J.E. Haysom, O. Jafarieh, H. Anis, K. Hinzer, D. Wright, Learning curve analysis
energy scenarios of the global energy transition, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. of concentrated photovoltaic systems, Prog. Photovoltaics Res. Appl. 23 (11)
91 (2018) 321e334. (2015) 1678e1686.
[99] E. Vartiainen, G. Masson, C. Breyer, D. Moser, E. Roma n Medina, Impact of [118] C. Kutscher, M. Mehos, C. Turchi, G. Glatzmaier, T. Moss, Line-focus Solar
weighted average cost of capital, capital expenditure, and other parameters Power Plant Cost Reduction Plant, National Renewable Energy Laboratory,
on future utility-scale PV levelised cost of electricity, Prog. Photovoltaics Res. Colorado, 2010. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy11osti/48175.pdf.
Appl. (2019) 1e15, https://doi.org/10.1002/pip.3189. [119] B. Sigfusson, A. Uihelein, Joint Research Center Geothermal Energy Status
[100] S. Hebbalkar, O. Kutepatil, Floating solar panel industry makes a splash, Report, European Commission Joint Research Center Institute for Energy and
Power 162 (7) (2018). Transport, Petten, 2015. https://setis.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/%0Afiles/
[101] M.W. Rahman, M.S. Mahmud, R. Ahmed, M.S. Rahman, M.Z. Arif, Solar lanes reports/2015_jrc_geothermal_energy_status_report.pdf.
and floating solar PV: new possibilities for source of energy generation in [120] Agora Energiewende, Stromspeicher in der energiewende, Agora Ener-
Bangladesh, in: 2017 Innovations in Power and Advanced Computing Tech- giewende, Berlin, 2014. www.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/
nologies, i-PACT 2017 2017eJanuary, 2018, pp. 1e6. 2013/%0Aspeicher-in-der-energiewende/Agora_Speicherstudie_Web.pdf.
[102] M.R.U. Dastagir, Prospects of Floating Solar Power Plant in Bangladesh, [121] C. Breyer, E. Tsupari, V. Tikka, P. Vainikka, Power-to-gas as an emerging
Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources, Gov. of Bangladesh, profitable business through creating an integrated value chain, Energy Pro-
Dhaka, 2018. https://d2oc0ihd6a5bt.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/ cedia 73 (2015) 182e189.
sites/837/2018/06/Mohd.-Dastagir-Prospect-of-Floating-Solar-Power-Plant- [122] A. McDonald, L. Schrattenholzer, Learning rates for energy technologies,
in-Bangladesh.pdf. Energy Pol. 29 (4) (2001) 255e261.
[103] J. Farfan, C. Breyer, Combining floating solar photovoltaic power plants and [123] [IEA]- International Energy Agency, World Energy Investment Outlook, 2003.
hydropower reservoirs: a virtual battery of great global potential, Energy Paris.
Procedia 155 (2018) 403e411. [124] J. Koomey, N.E. Hultman, A reactor-level analysis of busbar costs for US
[104] D. Majumdar, M.J. Pasqualetti, Dual use of agricultural land: introducing nuclear plants, 1970e2005, Energy Pol. 35 (11) (2007) 5630e5642.
‘agrivoltaics’ in phoenix metropolitan statistical area, USA, Landsc. Urban [125] [IEA] e International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2015, IEA, ”
Plann. 170 (2018) 150e168. Paris, 2015a.
[105] J. Xue, Photovoltaic agriculture - new opportunity for photovoltaic applica- [126] [IEA] e International Energy Agency, Projected Costs of Generating Elec-
tions in China, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 73 (2017) 1e9. tricity, 2015th ed, IEA, ” Paris, 2015b. https://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/pubs/
[106] W. Liu, L. Liu, C. Guan, F. Zhang, M. Li, H. Lv, et al., A novel agricultural 2015/7057-proj-costs-electricity-2015.pdf.
photovoltaic system based on solar spectrum separation, Sol. Energy 162 [127] W. Urban, H. Lohmann, K. Girod, Abschlussbericht für das BMBFVerbund-
(2018) 84e94. projekt Biogaseinspeisung, Fraunhofer-Institut Umsicht, Oberhausen, 2009.
[107] [CERC], Central Electricity Regulatory Comission, “Determination of Bench- [128] W. Hoffmann, Importance and evidence for cost effective electricity storage,
mark Capital Cost Norm for Solar PV Power Projects and Solar Thermal Po- in: 29th European PV Solar Energy Conference Exhibition, 2014,
wer Projects Applicable during FY 2016-17, 2016. New Delhi, http://www. pp. 3981e3988.
cercind.gov.in/2016/orders/SO17.pdf.

Current Energy Policies and Possible Transition Scenarios Adopting Renewable Energy A Case Study For Bangladesh

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Current Energy Policies and Possible Transition Scenarios Adopting Renewable Energy A Case Study For Bangladesh

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Current Energy Policies and Possible Transition Scenarios Adopting Renewable Energy A Case Study For Bangladesh

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Renewable Energy 155 (2020) 899e920

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Current energy policies and possible transition scenarios adopting

Nomenclature LCOC Levelised cost of curtailment

Study Scope Key ﬁndings

Current (HVAC) transmission lines. The list of various technologies

Fig. 2. The LUT Energy System Transition model [31].

Fig. 4. The seven sub-regions in Bangladesh and the grid connections.

Scenario Detailed description

4.6. Annual CO2 emissions in the transition period 5. Discussion

Table A.1 (continued )

Table A.1 (continued )

Opex ﬁx V/(kWhel a) 24 12 8 6 4.8 4 3.4 3

You might also like