Airport Passengers

Exponential Smoothing
Date Passengers 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50
Jan-15 3,204,637 3,204,637 3,204,637 3,204,637 3,204,637 3,204,637
Feb-15 2,966,477 3,204,637 3,204,637 3,204,637 3,204,637 3,204,637
Mar-15 3,593,364 3180821 3157005 3133189 3109373 3085557
Apr-15 3,604,104 3222075 3244276.8 3271242 3302969 3339461
May-15 3,933,016 3260278 3316242.24 3371100 3423423 3471782
Jun-15 4,146,797 3327552 3439597 3539675 3627260 3702399
Jul-15 4,176,486 3409476 3581037 3721812 3835075 3924598
Aug-15 4,347,059 3486177 3700126.79 3858214 3971639 4050542
Sep-15 3,781,168 3572266 3829513.24 4004867 4121807 4198801
Oct-15 3,872,278 3593156 3819844.19 3937758 3985552 3989984
Nov-15 3,902,278 3621068 3830331 3918114 3940242 3931131
Dec-15 4,302,278 3649189 3844720.36 3913363 3925056 3916705
Jan-16 2,644,539 3714498 3936231.89 4030038 4075945 4109491
Feb-16 2,359,800 3607502 3677893.31 3614388 3503383 3377015
Mar-16 2,925,918 3482732 3414274.65 3238012 3045950 2868408
Apr-16 3,024,973 3427050 3316603.32 3144383 2997937 2897163
May-16 3,177,100 3386843 3258277.26 3108560 3008751 2961068
Jun-16 3,419,595 3365868 3242041.8 3129122 3076091 3069084
Jul-16 3,649,702 3371241 3277552.44 3216264 3213492 3244339
Aug-16 3,650,668 3399087 3351982.35 3346295 3387976 3447021
Sep-16 3,191,526 3424245 3411719.48 3437607 3493053 3548844
Oct-16 3,249,428 3400973 3367680.79 3363783 3372442 3370185
Nov-16 2,971,484 3385819 3344030.23 3329476 3323237 3309807
Dec-16 3,074,209 3344385 3269521 3222079 3182536 3140645
Jan-17 2,785,466 3317368 3230458.59 3177718 3139205 3107427
Feb-17 2,515,361 3264178 3141460.07 3060042 2997709 2946447
Mar-17 3,105,958 3189296 3016240.26 2896638 2804770 2730904
Apr-17 3,139,059 3180962 3034183.8 2959434 2925245 2918431
May-17 3,380,355 3176772 3055158.84 3013321 3010771 3028745
Jun-17 3,612,886 3197130 3120198.07 3123432 3158604 3204550
Jul-17 3,765,824 3238706 3218735.66 3270268 3340317 3408718
Aug-17 3,771,842 3291418 3328153.33 3418935 3510520 3587271
Sep-17 3,356,365 3339460 3416891.06 3524807 3615049 3679556
Oct-17 3,490,100 3341150 3404785.85 3474274 3511575 3517961
Nov-17 3,163,659 3356045 3421848.68 3479022 3502985 3504030
Dec-17 3,167,124 3336807 3370210.74 3384413 3367255 3333845
Jan-18 2,883,810 3319839 3329593.4 3319226 3287202 3250484
Feb-18 2,610,667 3276236 3240436.72 3188601 3125845 3067147
Mar-18 3,129,205 3209679 3114482.77 3015221 2919774 2838907
Apr-18 3,200,527 3201631 3117427.22 3049416 3003546 2984056
May-18 3,547,804 3201521 3134047.17 3094750 3082339 3092292
Jun-18 3,766,323 3236149 3216798.54 3230666 3268525 3320048
Jul-18 3,935,589 3289167 3326703.43 3391363 3467644 3543185
Aug-18 3,917,884 3353809 3448480.55 3554631 3654822 3739387
 Sep-18 3,564,970 3410216 3542361.24 3663607 3760047 3828636
Oct-18 3,602,455 3425692 3546883 3634016 3682016 3696803
Nov-18 3,326,859 3443368 3557997.39 3624548 3650192 3649629
Dec-18 3,441,693 3431717 3511769.71 3535241 3520859 3488244
Jan-19 3,211,600 3432715 3497754.37 3507177 3489192 3464968
Feb-19 2,998,119 3410603 3440523.5 3418504 3378155 3338284
Mar-19 3,472,440 3369355 3352042.6 3292388 3226141 3168202
Apr-19 3,563,007 3379663 3376122.08 3346404 3324661 3320321
May-19 3,820,570 3397998 3413499.06 3411385 3419999 3441664
3440255 3494913.25 3534140 3580227 3631117

For the data in the excel file Airport passengers, do the following;
a. Develop a spreadsheet for forecasting the number of airport
passenegrs using simple three- period moving average.
b. Compute MAD, MSE, and MAPE error measures.
ential Smoothing MAD
0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50
3,204,637 3,204,637 3,204,637 3,204,637 0 0 0 0 0
3,204,637 3,204,637 3,204,637 3,204,637 238160 238160 238160 238160 238160
3061741 3037925 3014109 2990293 412543 436359 460175 483991 507807
3380715 3426732 3477513 3533057 382028.7 359827.2 332862.5 301134.6 264643.5
3514748 3550892 3578786 3596999 672737.8 616773.8 561915.8 509592.8 461233.8
3765709 3818379 3862170 3899414 819245 707200 607122 519536.7 444397.9
3994362 4048272 4089872 4122059 767009.5 595449 454674.4 341411 251887.9
4103636 4138022 4159163 4171043 860881.6 646932.2 488845.1 375419.6 296517
4249690 4284348 4309480 4329457 208902.4 48345.24 223699.4 340639.2 417632.5
3968577 3932122 3886830 3835997 279122.2 52433.81 65479.6 113273.5 117706.3
3910798 3890231 3875188 3868650 281210 71947.05 15835.72 37964.13 28853.13
3905686 3898664 3896860 3898915 653089 457557.6 388915 377221.5 385573.4
4143641 4181194 4221194 4261942 1069959 1291693 1385499 1431406 1464952
3244180 3105535 2959870 2806279 1247702 1318093 1254588 1143583 1017215
2713552 2583521 2479814 2404448 556813.8 488356.6 312093.6 120031.6 57510.43
2840972 2823199 2836697 2873771 402077.4 291630.3 119410.5 27036.05 127810.2
2951372 2964441 2987318 3009853 209742.7 81177.26 68539.65 168348.6 216032.1
3086809 3113302 3139144 3160375 53726.57 177553.2 290472.8 343504.2 350511.1
3286481 3327707 3363505 3393673 278460.9 372149.6 433437.9 436209.5 405362.5
3504413 3553104 3592463 3624099 251580.8 298685.6 304372.6 262691.7 203647.3
3592166 3621399 3639027 3648011 232719.3 220193.5 246081.2 301527 357318.4
3351782 3320488 3281026 3237175 151545.3 118252.8 114354.9 123014.2 120757.2
3290370 3270746 3255748 3248203 414334.8 372546.2 357992.4 351752.5 338322.6
3099038 3061263 3028337 2999156 270176.3 195312 147869.7 108326.5 66436.3
3084141 3070325 3065035 3066704 531901.7 444992.6 392251.8 353738.9 321961.1
2904936 2870924 2841380 2813590 748816.5 626099.1 544681.2 482348.3 431085.6
2671191 2622030 2580565 2545184 83337.87 89717.74 209320.1 301188 375054.2
2932051 2960780 3000879 3049881 41903.08 104875.2 179625.1 213813.8 220628.1
3056256 3085575 3111423 3130141 203583.2 325196.2 367033.6 369584.3 351610.1
3250715 3291921 3326569 3355334 415755.9 492687.9 489454.5 454281.6 408336
3468018 3516597 3555623 3587131 527118.3 547088.3 495556.1 425506.9 357106
3646701 3691056 3723784 3747955 480424.5 443688.7 352907.3 261322.2 184571
3721786 3747606 3762230 3769453 16905.03 60526.06 168441.9 258683.7 323191.5
3502533 3473737 3437538 3397674 148949.5 85314.15 15825.68 21475.22 27860.75
3495073 3485191 3479588 3480857 192386.4 258189.7 315363 339326.1 340371.4
3296225 3260119 3226845 3195379 169682.8 203086.7 217289.1 200130.7 166720.7
3218764 3195022 3179068 3169949 436028.5 445783.4 435416.4 403392.4 366674.3
3017792 2977174 2942862 2912424 665568.7 629769.7 577934.5 515178.4 456480.2
2773517 2720619 2677106 2640843 80473.79 14722.23 113983.9 209430.9 290297.9
2986930 3006629 3038785 3080369 1104.408 83099.78 151110.7 196980.6 216471
3115088 3142358 3168179 3188511 346283 413756.8 453054.5 465465.3 455512.5
3374718 3426170 3471879 3511875 530173.7 549524.5 535657.1 497798.2 446275.2
3609681 3664277 3707434 3740878 646422.4 608885.6 544226 467944.9 392403.6
3805226 3854195 3889958 3916118 564075.1 469403.5 363253.2 263062 178496.8
3872821 3898777 3912299 3917707 154753.6 22608.76 98636.76 195076.8 263665.6
3688110 3665112 3634436 3600244 176763.2 55572.01 31560.73 79561.1 94347.8
3636717 3621252 3608851 3602234 116509.1 231138.4 297688.5 323332.7 322769.9
3450802 3415177 3383257 3354396 9975.831 70076.71 93547.96 79165.59 46550.95
3445337 3433738 3430006 3432963 221114.8 286154.4 295576.6 277592.4 253368.5
3305095 3278241 3255281 3233736 412484.3 442404.5 420384.6 380036.4 340165.2
3120909 3082156 3049551 3021681 103085.2 120397.4 180051.8 246299.2 304238.4
3331828 3355355 3387862 3427364 183343.6 186884.9 216603.2 238346.5 242686.2
3470535 3500711 3527978 3549443 422572.3 407070.9 409185.3 400570.9 378906.1
3680556 3724612 3762052 3793457 AVG 372024.3 349525.8 343038.8 334161.7 321117.2
MAD MSE
0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40
0 0 0 0 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00
238160 238160 238160 238160 5.67E+10 5.67E+10 5.67E+10 5.67E+10
531623 555439 579255 603071 1.70E+11 1.90E+11 2.12E+11 2.34E+11
223389.2 177371.7 126591 71047.1 1.46E+11 1.29E+11 1.11E+11 9.07E+10
418267.7 382123.5 354230.2 336016.7 4.53E+11 3.80E+11 3.16E+11 2.60E+11
381088.1 328418.1 284627 247382.7 6.71E+11 5.00E+11 3.69E+11 2.70E+11
182124.2 128214.4 86614.41 54427.27 5.88E+11 3.55E+11 2.07E+11 1.17E+11
243422.7 209037.3 187895.9 176015.7 7.41E+11 4.19E+11 2.39E+11 1.41E+11
468521.9 503179.8 528311.8 548289.4 4.36E+10 2.34E+09 5.00E+10 1.16E+11
96298.77 59843.94 14552.36 36281.06 7.79E+10 2.75E+09 4.29E+09 1.28E+10
8519.508 12046.82 27089.53 33628.11 7.91E+10 5.18E+09 2.51E+08 1.44E+09
396592.2 403614 405417.9 403362.8 4.27E+11 2.09E+11 1.51E+11 1.42E+11
1499102 1536655 1576655 1617403 1.14E+12 1.67E+12 1.92E+12 2.05E+12
884379.8 745735.4 600070.1 446479.3 1.56E+12 1.74E+12 1.57E+12 1.31E+12
212366.1 342397.4 446104 521470.1 3.10E+11 2.38E+11 9.74E+10 1.44E+10
184001.4 201774.2 188275.8 151202 1.62E+11 8.50E+10 1.43E+10 7.31E+08
225727.6 212659.3 189782.2 167247.2 4.40E+10 6.59E+09 4.70E+09 2.83E+10
332786 306292.8 280451.4 259219.7 2.89E+09 3.15E+10 8.44E+10 1.18E+11
363221.4 321994.8 286197.3 256029 7.75E+10 1.38E+11 1.88E+11 1.90E+11
146254.6 97564.45 58205.46 26568.9 6.33E+10 8.92E+10 9.26E+10 6.90E+10
400640.2 429872.7 447500.9 456485.1 5.42E+10 4.85E+10 6.06E+10 9.09E+10
102354.1 71059.8 31598.18 12253.49 2.30E+10 1.40E+10 1.31E+10 1.51E+10
318885.6 299261.9 284263.6 276718.7 1.72E+11 1.39E+11 1.28E+11 1.24E+11
24829.25 12946.42 45872.27 75053.13 7.30E+10 3.81E+10 2.19E+10 1.17E+10
298674.7 284859.1 279568.5 281237.7 2.83E+11 1.98E+11 1.54E+11 1.25E+11
389574.9 355562.7 326018.7 298228.8 5.61E+11 3.92E+11 2.97E+11 2.33E+11
434767 483928.2 525393.3 560774.1 6.95E+09 8.05E+09 4.38E+10 9.07E+10
207007.8 178279.5 138179.7 89178.41 1.76E+09 1.10E+10 3.23E+10 4.57E+10
324099.1 294779.8 268931.9 250213.8 4.14E+10 1.06E+11 1.35E+11 1.37E+11
362170.7 320965 286317.4 257552.4 1.73E+11 2.43E+11 2.40E+11 2.06E+11
297806.3 249227.5 210201.5 178693.2 2.78E+11 2.99E+11 2.46E+11 1.81E+11
125140.5 80786.25 48058.3 23887.32 2.31E+11 1.97E+11 1.25E+11 6.83E+10
365420.8 391241.1 405865.3 413088.3 2.86E+08 3.66E+09 2.84E+10 6.69E+10
12433.32 16362.66 52561.93 92426.17 2.22E+10 7.28E+09 2.50E+08 4.61E+08
331414.3 321532.2 315928.6 317198.4 3.70E+10 6.67E+10 9.95E+10 1.15E+11
129100.7 92994.66 59720.72 28254.84 2.88E+10 4.12E+10 4.72E+10 4.01E+10
334954.3 311212.4 295258.1 286139.5 1.90E+11 1.99E+11 1.90E+11 1.63E+11
407124.7 366506.7 332194.6 301756.9 4.43E+11 3.97E+11 3.34E+11 2.65E+11
355688.1 408586 452099.1 488362.3 6.48E+09 2.17E+08 1.30E+10 4.39E+10
213597.2 193897.8 161741.8 120158.2 1.22E+06 6.91E+09 2.28E+10 3.88E+10
432715.9 405446.3 379625.4 359292.8 1.20E+11 1.71E+11 2.05E+11 2.17E+11
391605.4 340152.9 294444.1 254448.3 2.81E+11 3.02E+11 2.87E+11 2.48E+11
325908.1 271311.9 228154.8 194710.8 4.18E+11 3.71E+11 2.96E+11 2.19E+11
112658.3 63688.56 27925.96 1766.083 3.18E+11 2.20E+11 1.32E+11 6.92E+10
307850.7 333807.4 347328.8 352737.4 2.39E+10 5.11E+08 9.73E+09 3.81E+10
85655.28 62657.23 31980.76 2211.261 3.12E+10 3.09E+09 9.96E+08 6.33E+09
309858.1 294393.2 281992.2 275374.9 1.36E+10 5.34E+10 8.86E+10 1.05E+11
9109.245 26516.05 58435.57 87296.51 9.95E+07 4.91E+09 8.75E+09 6.27E+09
233736.7 222138.2 218405.9 221363.3 4.89E+10 8.19E+10 8.74E+10 7.71E+10
306975.7 280122.5 257162.2 235617.3 1.70E+11 1.96E+11 1.77E+11 1.44E+11
351530.7 390284.3 422888.6 450759.3 1.06E+10 1.45E+10 3.24E+10 6.07E+10
231179.3 207652.3 175144.7 135642.9 3.36E+10 3.49E+10 4.69E+10 5.68E+10
350034.7 319858.7 292591.9 271127.3 1.79E+11 1.66E+11 1.67E+11 1.60E+11
306160.5 291238.7 277727.7 266217.5 AVG 2.13209E+11 1.9766E+11 1.819E+11 1.6707E+11
 MSE
0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 0.10 0.20
0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0 0
5.67E+10 5.67E+10 5.67E+10 5.67E+10 5.67E+10 8.028378444 8.028378
2.58E+11 2.83E+11 3.09E+11 3.36E+11 3.64E+11 11.48069052 12.14347
7.00E+10 4.99E+10 3.15E+10 1.60E+10 5.05E+09 10.59982453 9.983818
2.13E+11 1.75E+11 1.46E+11 1.25E+11 1.13E+11 17.10488414 15.68195
1.97E+11 1.45E+11 1.08E+11 8.10E+10 6.12E+10 19.7560924 17.05413
6.34E+10 3.32E+10 1.64E+10 7.50E+09 2.96E+09 18.36494944 14.25718
8.79E+10 5.93E+10 4.37E+10 3.53E+10 3.10E+10 19.8037705 14.88207
1.74E+11 2.20E+11 2.53E+11 2.79E+11 3.01E+11 5.524812155 1.278579
1.39E+10 9.27E+09 3.58E+09 2.12E+08 1.32E+09 7.208216619 1.354082
8.33E+08 7.26E+07 1.45E+08 7.34E+08 1.13E+09 7.206302772 1.843719
1.49E+11 1.57E+11 1.63E+11 1.64E+11 1.63E+11 15.18007369 10.63524
2.15E+12 2.25E+12 2.36E+12 2.49E+12 2.62E+12 40.45918499 48.84378
1.03E+12 7.82E+11 5.56E+11 3.60E+11 1.99E+11 52.87321102 55.85615
3.31E+09 4.51E+10 1.17E+11 1.99E+11 2.72E+11 19.03039765 16.69072
1.63E+10 3.39E+10 4.07E+10 3.54E+10 2.29E+10 13.29193507 9.640758
4.67E+10 5.10E+10 4.52E+10 3.60E+10 2.80E+10 6.601702888 2.555074
1.23E+11 1.11E+11 9.38E+10 7.87E+10 6.72E+10 1.57113833 5.192229
1.64E+11 1.32E+11 1.04E+11 8.19E+10 6.56E+10 7.629688972 10.19671
4.15E+10 2.14E+10 9.52E+09 3.39E+09 7.06E+08 6.891363989 8.181671
1.28E+11 1.61E+11 1.85E+11 2.00E+11 2.08E+11 7.291786502 6.899317
1.46E+10 1.05E+10 5.05E+09 9.98E+08 1.50E+08 4.663754232 3.639188
1.14E+11 1.02E+11 8.96E+10 8.08E+10 7.66E+10 13.94369959 12.53738
4.41E+09 6.16E+08 1.68E+08 2.10E+09 5.63E+09 8.788482568 6.353244
1.04E+11 8.92E+10 8.11E+10 7.82E+10 7.91E+10 19.09560877 15.97552
1.86E+11 1.52E+11 1.26E+11 1.06E+11 8.89E+10 29.76974362 24.89102
1.41E+11 1.89E+11 2.34E+11 2.76E+11 3.14E+11 2.683161484 2.888569
4.87E+10 4.29E+10 3.18E+10 1.91E+10 7.95E+09 1.334893097 3.340976
1.24E+11 1.05E+11 8.69E+10 7.23E+10 6.26E+10 6.022539831 9.620178
1.67E+11 1.31E+11 1.03E+11 8.20E+10 6.63E+10 11.50758434 13.63696
1.28E+11 8.87E+10 6.21E+10 4.42E+10 3.19E+10 13.99742296 14.52772
3.41E+10 1.57E+10 6.53E+09 2.31E+09 5.71E+08 12.73713167 11.76318
1.04E+11 1.34E+11 1.53E+11 1.65E+11 1.71E+11 0.503670899 1.803322
7.76E+08 1.55E+08 2.68E+08 2.76E+09 8.54E+09 4.267772568 2.444461
1.16E+11 1.10E+11 1.03E+11 9.98E+10 1.01E+11 6.081136515 8.16111
2.78E+10 1.67E+10 8.65E+09 3.57E+09 7.98E+08 5.357629837 6.41234
1.34E+11 1.12E+11 9.69E+10 8.72E+10 8.19E+10 15.11987622 15.45814
2.08E+11 1.66E+11 1.34E+11 1.10E+11 9.11E+10 25.49419946 24.12294
8.43E+10 1.27E+11 1.67E+11 2.04E+11 2.38E+11 2.5717007 0.470478
4.69E+10 4.56E+10 3.76E+10 2.62E+10 1.44E+10 0.034507074 2.596441
2.07E+11 1.87E+11 1.64E+11 1.44E+11 1.29E+11 9.760489379 11.66234
1.99E+11 1.53E+11 1.16E+11 8.67E+10 6.47E+10 14.07669309 14.59048
1.54E+11 1.06E+11 7.36E+10 5.21E+10 3.79E+10 16.42504734 15.47127
3.19E+10 1.27E+10 4.06E+09 7.80E+08 3.12E+06 14.39744313 11.98105
 6.95E+10 9.48E+10 1.11E+11 1.21E+11 1.24E+11 4.34095122 0.634192
8.90E+09 7.34E+09 3.93E+09 1.02E+09 4.89E+06 4.906744091 1.542615
1.04E+11 9.60E+10 8.67E+10 7.95E+10 7.58E+10 3.502074388 6.947646
2.17E+09 8.30E+07 7.03E+08 3.41E+09 7.62E+09 0.289852428 2.036112
6.42E+10 5.46E+10 4.93E+10 4.77E+10 4.90E+10 6.884878327 8.910025
1.16E+11 9.42E+10 7.85E+10 6.61E+10 5.55E+10 13.75810223 14.75607
9.26E+10 1.24E+11 1.52E+11 1.79E+11 2.03E+11 2.968666143 3.467228
5.89E+10 5.34E+10 4.31E+10 3.07E+10 1.84E+10 5.145755693 5.245146
1.44E+11 1.23E+11 1.02E+11 8.56E+10 7.35E+10 11.06045098 10.65472
1.5436E+11 1.4451E+11 1.3763E+11133520007391 131907188828 AVG 11.29596286 10.76425
 MAPE
0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8.028378 8.028378 8.028378 8.028378 8.028378 8.028378 8.028378
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10.71006 10.48458 9.917528 9.161845 8.372015 7.658332 7.096514
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