Structure Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Cross-Border Electricity Trade: A Complex Network Perspective

sustainability
Article
Structure Characteristics and Influencing Factors of
Cross-Border Electricity Trade: A Complex Network Perspective
Yue Pu 1 , Yunting Li 1, * and Yingzi Wang 2
1 School of International Business, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,

Chengdu 611130, China; [email protected]
2 Social Sciences and Humanities, University of California-Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA;
[email protected]
* Correspondence: [email protected]
Abstract: Electricity is one of the most widely used forms of energy. However, environmental
pollution from electricity generation and the mismatch between electricity supply and demand have
long been bothering economies across the world. Under this background, cross-border electricity
trade provides a new direction for sustainable development. Based on the complex network approach,
this paper aims to explore the structural characteristics and evolution of cross-border electricity trade
networks and to figure out the factors influencing the formation of the network by using the more
advanced network analysis method—ERGM. The results show that: (1) The scale of the electricity
trade network is expanding, but there are still many economies not involved. (2) The centrality of the
network shifts from west to east. The level of internal electricity interconnection is high in Europe, and
Asian countries’ coordination role in cross-border electricity trade networks is enhanced. (3) Cross-
border electricity trade helps to reduce CO2 emissions, achieve renewable energy transformation,
and reduce power supply and demand mismatch. Large gaps in GDP, electricity prices, industrial
Citation: Pu, Y.; Li, Y.; Wang, Y. structure, geographical distance and institutional distance between economies are not conducive to
Structure Characteristics and form the cross-border trade network, while the common language is on the contrary.
Influencing Factors of Cross-Border
Electricity Trade: A Complex Keywords: cross-border electricity trade; complex network analysis; renewable energy
Network Perspective. Sustainability
2021, 13, 5797. https://doi.org/
10.3390/su13115797
1. Introduction
Academic Editor: Jungho Baek
Electric power plays a significant role in our human society. It is the core of modern
energy security and economic development. The development of industrialization has
Received: 31 March 2021
Accepted: 18 May 2021
once again intensified the demand for electric energy in various economies, and the global
Published: 21 May 2021
demand for electric power will continue to grow fast. Whether economies can provide
high-quality electric power to meet the social need is of great significance. However, the
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral
global electricity industry is facing the problems of slow growth, the mismatch between
with regard to jurisdictional claims in
supply and demand, and environmental concerns:
published maps and institutional affil- First, the growth rate of global electricity generation is slow, unable to meet the
iations. rapid growth of GDP. According to data from the Statistical Review of World Energy
2020 [1], global electricity generation in 2019 only increased by 1.3%, and most economies
experienced weak or even negative growth. In 2019, the global economic growth rate
fell to 2.3%. It is the lowest level in a decade, but still higher than the growth rate of
Copyright: © 2021 by the authors.
electricity generation [2]. Nowadays, 770 million people, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa,
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
have no access to electricity, and hundreds of millions of people have very limited access
This article is an open access article
to electricity [3]. At the same time, the impact of the COVID-19 has magnified the scarcity
distributed under the terms and of electricity and energy. The lack of electricity makes the backward areas unable to meet
conditions of the Creative Commons the medical needs in time, accelerating the spread of the epidemic.
Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// Second, there is a serious mismatch of global electricity supply and demand. The Eu-
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ ropean electricity market is densely networked, and the integration of the electricity
4.0/). market [4] is enough to support the development of the European region. In sharp contrast,
Sustainability 2021, 13, 5797. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13115797 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability

Sustainability 2021, 13, 5797 2 of 25
there is a shortage of electricity in Asia and Africa. Facing the opportunities of world in-
dustrial transfer and global value chain reconstruction, scarcity of electricity in some areas
(e.g., Southeast Asia) may result in slow industrialization and high unemployment rate.
Finally, renewable energy accounts for a relatively small proportion of electricity
generation sources, and carbon dioxide emissions are relatively high, causing serious
environmental concerns. The electricity generation sector generates the most carbon diox-
ide [5]. Renewable energy is the main development direction of the electricity generation
industry [6,7] and is conducive to driving economic growth [8,9]. These problems have
made it valuable to explore the possibility of cross-border electricity trade.
With the development of economic globalization, trade integration and production
decentralization, trade between economies is getting more and more complex. As a kind of
commodity, energy is gradually networked. Compared with the traditional energy trade,
the cross-border electricity trade is more inclined to be regional, due to the limitation of
technology and geographical location. As a result, it has not yet formed a complete network.
In addition, electricity has unique properties. For example, once generated, electricity can
hardly be stored, so continuous supply and demand matching is necessary [10], which also
provides exploratory significance for the study of cross-border electricity trade. Technology
and economic development promote the continuous growth of cross-border electricity trade.
Cross-border electricity trade may solve the three problems mentioned above effectively.
Economies can give full play to their comparative advantages, optimize resource allocation
and speed up electricity power production by trading with each other [11]. Through the
cross-border electricity trade, economies can increase the use of renewable energy, and
reduce carbon dioxide emissions, which is conducive to promoting the world’s low-carbon
energy transformation and socially sustainable development [12,13]. Moreover, energy
has a fundamental role to play in efforts to eradicate poverty [14,15]. However, cross-
border electricity trade accounts for a small proportion of global electricity supply and
demand. The scale of European electricity trade is large, but the proportion of electricity
exports in electricity production and the proportion of electricity imports in electricity
consumption are only about 10% respectively. While Asia’s electricity trade is smaller, with
electricity exports accounting for less than 1% of total electricity production. The detailed
information is provided in Appendix B. So, this paper explores the structural characteristics
and influencing factors of cross-border electricity trade network in order to expand the
scale of global electricity trade.
The existing literature on cross-border electricitytrade mainly focuses on the analysis
of the ecological environment, the potential of cooperation between economies and trading
markets. First, researchers have analyzed the impact of cross-border electricity trade on
the environment. Through the calculation of carbon dioxide emissions in electricity trade,
they find that electricity trade has a significant impact on emission factors and implied
carbon, and electricity trade will reduce carbon dioxide emissions from electricity con-
sumption in various areas [16–18]. Renewable energy plays an increasingly important role
in the power sector [19], and the large use of fossil energy will increase environmental
pollution [20]. Increasing the proportion of renewable energy in electricity generation
can effectively reduce CO2 emissions [21,22], so through cross-border electricity trade,
electricity can be transferred from high renewable energy electricity generation countries
to low renewable energy electricity generation countries. Economies can effectively allevi-
ate environmental problems by strengthening the construction of cross-border electricity
trade infrastructure and improving renewable energy policies [23]. Second, many scholars
assess the cooperation potential and potential benefits of regional cross-border electricity
trade [24,25]. Strengthening cross-border electricity trade cooperation in South Asia can
bring scale economy of investment, more cost-effective expansion of renewable electricity,
and environmental benefits. Therefore, governments should take measures to support
the development of cross-border electricity trade [12,26]. By building cross-border elec-
tricity trade in Asia and Europe, the total social welfare can be increased by 140 M€ and
5370 thousand metric tons of carbon dioxide emission can be reduced every year [27].
Third, scholars have studied the electricity dispatching problem in the trading market. The
relationship between the development of renewable electricity cross-border trade and the
current electricity trading market is complex [28]. On the one hand, the development of
renewable electricity trade may bring bad motivation of insufficient investment, resulting
in upward pressure on prices and price differences in different regions [29]. For price and
investment issues, scholars believe that different technology groups should have different
investment levels [30], and can control RES investment based on auction or pay a market
premium based on market demand [31]. On the other hand, renewable electricity trade
may cause power grid congestion, that is, renewable energy generation does not have
appropriate network expansion to meet the growing demand of transmission capacity from
production to consumption [32]. Cross-border electricity trade will increase the burden
of interconnection lines, leading to network congestion, which limits the power market
transactions [33]. Compared with export regions, the larger the renewable energy supply
in import regions, the lower the probability of congestion [34]. Congestion further leads
to the problem of market power. In peak hours, the large-scale competition of renewable
energy weakens the market power abuse, while in off-peak hours, congestion leads to
market fragmentation and the market power abuse can be enhanced [28]. In the long run,
the traditional system can be modified to meet the new needs, but in the short run, the
network congestion must be alleviated by anti-transaction or redispatch [35].
Complex network analysis methods are widely used in economic and trade research
as an interdisciplinary subject. It is based on relational data, putting individuals in the
network [36]. It not only can analyze the characteristics of each individual but also can
intuitively display its status and role in the network, which is an extension of traditional
measurement methods [37,38]. Researchers use the complex network analysis method to
analyze the structural characteristics of a network from three levels: individual structure,
overall structure and community structure [39–41]. The complex network analysis method
is also widely used to study the influencing factors of relational data. Quadratic Assign-
ment Procedure (QAP) is a nonparametric method, which does not need to assume that
independent variables are independent of each other, so it is more robust than parametric
method, and it is widely used in the empirical analysis of economic network [42,43]. Expo-
nential Random Graph Models (ERGM) is a general model based on the comprehensive
consideration of various network production processes. It can infer whether a certain struc-
tural feature in the real network is obviously different from that in the random network.
It is considered to be one of the most effective tools for empirical analysis of social network
science-related theories [44,45].
To date, a few studies on energy trade using the complex network method mainly
focus on the traditional energy trade [46–48], but the analysis of electricity trade is lacking.
For example, the trade networks of coal [49], oil [50], natural gas [51,52], crude oil [53]
and virtual water [54] have been studied in detail. The existing articles on electricity
trade mainly focus on the analysis of electricity trading market mechanism and environ-
ment, rarely focus on the evolution of cross-border electricity trade network, the status of
economies in the global electricity trade and the driving force of the formation of electricity
trade network from a macro perspective. Although the complex network analysis method
has been applied to electricity trade [55], it only simply analyzes the network structure
characteristics and does not further find the influencing factors. Therefore, the main pur-
pose of this paper is to analyze the evolution and structural characteristics of the global
electricity trade network from a global perspective. We can’t only see the growth process
of the whole network, but also the status change of each country in it. In addition, since
cross-border electricity trade is one of the effective ways to meet sustainable development,
it is necessary to further analyze the influencing factors of promoting the formation of
cross-border electricity trade.
The main contributions of this paper are as follows: (1) Analyze the structural charac-
teristics of the cross-border electricity trade network from the macro, individual, and micro
perspectives and show the evolution of the electricity trade network comprehensively.
(2) Use the ERGM model to explore the factors of the cross-border electricity trade network,
analyze the influencing factors internally and externally, and avoid endogenous problems.
(3) Propose recommendations for the further development of cross-border electricity trade
based on our results.
The structure of this paper is as follows, Section 2 introduces the construction of the
network, data sources and methods. Section 3 describes the characteristic facts of relevant
economies, mainly including carbon dioxide emissions and the proportion of renewable
energy in electricity generation energy. Section 4 analyzes the cross-border electricity trade
network structure from overall, individual and microstructure. Section 5 uses the ERGM
model to explore the factors that influence the formation of the cross-border electricity
trade network. Section 6 gives conclusions and recommendations.
2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Cross-Border Electricity Trade Network Construction
We construct the cross-border electricity trade network using the data collected from
UNcomtrade database [56] in 2000–2018. The cross-border electricity trade network consists
of N nodes representing economies and L edges composed of trade relations, denoted
as G = (V, E). The electricity trade matrix is V = [vij ] (i ∈ N, j ∈ N, I 6= j), with the vector
Vi as exporters and Vj as imports. E = [eij ] (I ∈ N, j ∈ N, I 6= j) represent the trade flow
relationship between economies, and each eij corresponds to a pair of nodes (Vi , Vj ) in V.
According to the nature of the electricity trade network, this paper constructs a directed
weighted network. We select the data with an electricity trade volume of more than USD
1000 and eliminate the data where electricity trade in the two regions is impossible due
to geographic restrictions. Differences in statistical caliber and human factors lead to
inconsistent import and export data between two economies. Some scholars believe that
the companies may deliberately underreport and conceal in order to avoid tariffs [57],
so data with higher values are more realistic. Other scholars believe that import data
should be used, because import supervision is relatively stricter, and the accuracy of import
data is higher than export data [17]. This paper draws on the method of using the higher
numerical data for calculation.
2.2. Network Feature Measurements

This paper analyzes the structural characteristics of the electricity trade network
from the overall, individual and microstructure levels. The overall structure is composed
of clustering coefficient and reciprocity coefficient, showing the evolution of the global
electricity trade network from a macro perspective. The individual structure focuses on
showing the status of an economy in the cross-border electricity trade network.
2.2.1. Overall Structural Features

(1) Average clustering coefficient
The average clustering coefficient represents the average value of the clustering co-
efficients of all economies in the cross-border electricity trade network. With the gradual
development of connections between nodes in the direction of regionalization and grouping,
the average clustering coefficient is a good measure of the clustering effect in the network:
_ 1 N
n i∑
C= Ci (1)
=1

eij
Ci = (2)
ki (k i − 1)
Ci is the clustering coefficient of economy i, representing the ratio of the number of
connections between adjacent nodes to the number of possible connections in economy i.
The eij indicates the trade relationships of economy i and economy j in the network. The ki
denotes the number of neighboring nodes of economy i. The larger the average clustering
coefficient is, the stronger the aggregation effect is in the network [58].
(2) Reciprocity coefficient
Reciprocity represents the interoperability of trade between economies [59]. The higher
the reciprocity is, the closer the trade interaction between economies is, which is the basic
direction of network development. It is defined as follows:
Φ = m_d/m (3)
The m denotes the total number of edges in the network, m_d represents the number
of edges with bidirectional relationships. Economies prefer bilateral reciprocal trade
rather than unilateral trade, which is more conducive to the stability of relationships
between economies.
2.2.2. Individual Structural Features

(1) Degree centrality
The degree centrality shows the number of economies that have electricity trade with
an economy [60]. The higher the degree centrality is, the higher the status of the economy
is in the electricity trade network, and the degree centrality can be further divided into
in-degree centrality and out-degree centrality. The in-degree indicates that the economy i
imports electricity from other economies, and the out-degree denotes that the economy i
exports electricity to other economies. In order to eliminate the influence of network scale
change, we standardize it by dividing the degree by the largest number of connections
between economy i and other economies. It is defined as follows:
n
IDi = ∑ dji /(n − 1) (4)
i=1(i6 =j)
n
ODi = ∑ dij /(n − 1) (5)
i=1(i6 =j)
Di = (ID i +ODi )/(2n − 2) (6)

The dij represents economy i exports electricity to economy j. If there is electricity
trade between economy i and economy j, d = 1, otherwise d = 0. ID represents in-degree,
OD represents out-degree. The D is composed of ID and OD.
(2) Betweenness centrality
Betweenness centrality reflects an economy’s role as a “bridge” in the electricity trade
network [61]. The higher the betweenness centrality is, the more important the economy’s
coordination and control role are in the international electricity trade network. It is defined
as follow:
BCi = ∑ ∑ bjk (i)/bjk (i 6= k 6= j) (7)
j k
The bjk represents the number of shortest paths for electricity trade between economy
j and economy k. The bjk (i) represents the number of shortest paths through economy i
when economy j and economy k establish an electricity trade relationship.
2.2.3. Microstructure Features

The motif refers to the connection mode of the interaction of nodes in the network,
which can be widely understood as the local connection mode that often appears in the
network. The motif is not limited to 3 nodes, and the sub-network structure composed of
multiple nodes can also be regarded as the motif. According to different characteristics of
nodes and different weights of edges, motifs can be arranged into multiple subgraphs. The
Z-score can be used to evaluate the importance of the motifs in the network [62].
Nreali − Nrandi
Zi = (8)
σrandi
The Nreali denotes the number of times the motif appears in the real network. The
Nrandi denotes the number of times the motif appears in the random network. The σrandi
represents the standard deviation of the motif in the random network. A large Z-score
means this type of motif shows up frequently in the network, so the motif can be of
high importance.
2.3. ERGM Conceptualization

ERGM (Exponential Random Graph) is mainly used to study the influencing factors
in relational data that affect the formation of the network. After estimation, diagnosis,
simulation, comparison and improvement, the network structure characteristics obtained
by simulation are close to the real network [63–65]. At present, scholars use the Markov
chain Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation method to estimate and test the model.
The general form of the ERGM model is:

1
Pr( Y = y|θ) = exp{ ∑ θTH gH (y)} (9)
κ H
The Yij represents the trade relationship between economy i and economy j, Yij = 1
means that economy i exports electricity to economy j, and Yij = 0 otherwise. The yij is
the observation value of Yij . Pr( Y = y|θ) represents the probability of y in Y under the
condition of θ. The κ is a standardized constant to ensure that it conforms to the probability
distribution. The H indicates all the factors that may contribute to forming a cross-border
electricity trade network. If the influencing factors are further expanded, the model turns
as follows:

1 _
Pr ( Y = y|θ) = exp{θ Tα gα (y)+θTβ gβ (y, x)+θTγ gγ (y, g) (10)
κ
Influencing factor H is composed of network endogenous structural factor α, behavior

attribute β, and other external network influence factors γ that affect the network (α, β,
γ ∈ H). Equation (10) includes three statistics that affect network generation. The gα (y)
represents endogenous network structure, which only comes from the internal processes
of the network relationship system. The processes usually appear based on the effect of
degrees, which is called “preference attached”. If some economies or regions are at the cen-
ter of the network and have more electricity trading partners, more people will trade with
them. The gβ (y, x) includes the characteristics of economy attributes x. Due to differences
in resources, climate, geography, political culture and other factors between economies,
economic
attributes are also called “actor attributes”. Other exogenous situational factors
¯
gγ y, g will also affect the formation of the electricity trade network, usually using
binary relational covariates to measure the influence of the exogenous network on the
electricity network.
3. The Characteristic Fact Analysis

3.1. Electricity Market
As a special commodity, electric power transactions have become complex and diverse,
developing from physical to financial ones, including a variety of derivatives. According to
the trading volume, the electricity trading market can be divided into the retail market and
wholesale market. Retail electricity transactions are carried out at the level of distribution
lines, mainly between dealers and end consumers; wholesale electricity trading refers
to transactions at the transmission line level, which mainly occur between electricity
generators and electricity sales companies or large enterprises [66]. Cross-border electricity
trade is mainly composed of wholesale transactions. In the wholesale market, electricity
trading is further divided into power exchange and over-the-counter trading (OTC trading).
Power exchange refers to transactions conducted in an organized place, and OTC trading
occurs in a non-public place. The former already has a standardized model and a high
degree of automation, while the latter has a relatively low degree of standardization.
The electricity markets transaction mechanism is mainly composed of financial trans-
actions and spot transactions. The Day-Ahead Markets (DAM) and the Intra-Day Markets
(IM) are important components of electricity trading, and they are great complements [67].
The Day-Ahead Market is a discrete transaction and a one-time bidding market, where
trading happens on the day before. While the Intra-Day Market is a continuous transaction
market, and its main purpose is to continue to adjust the electricity trading when the
Day-Ahead Market is closed.
In cross-border electricity trading, the European electricity trading market is relatively
mature. Europe leads electricity trading market reform worldwide, and the Nord Pool
is the first cross-border electricity trading market. Most of the cross-border electricity
transactions in Europe belong to OTC trading, with a high degree of integration [68]. In
addition, the global electricity futures market is developing rapidly. As an advanced
form of the electricity market, the global electricity futures market helps to avoid risks.
Electric power has become the third-largest energy derivative after oil and natural gas [69].
Currently, multiple countries, including the United States, Australia, Europe, etc., have
electricity futures trading.
3.2. Electricity Production and Electricity Consumption, CO2 and Renewable Energy
The cross-border electricity trade network is obviously regional. This paper divides the
world into seven regions based on BP World Energy Development [1] regional classification
index: Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America, Africa, CIS countries, Middle East, and
Central and South America. This section describes the electricity production, electricity
consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and the proportion of renewable energy in the
electricity generation of each region, looking for the relationship between cross-border
electricity trade and the environment of each economy.
Figure 1 shows the evolution of fossil energy’s CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2018 based
on the Enerdata database [70]. It is clear that carbon dioxide emissions in the Asia–Pacific
region are showing a straight upward trend, and the growth rate is obvious. Since 2000,
carbon dioxide emissions in the Asia-Pacific region have increased by 1.24 times, which is
closely related to the transfer of world industries to the Asia-Pacific region. The Asia-Pacific
region is mostly engaged in related industries at the low end of the value chain, which
not only increases the demand for electricity but also gradually increases carbon dioxide
emissions. The CIS countries, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East have seen a
slight increase in carbon dioxide, which has also increased carbon dioxide emissions while
developing the economy. In sharp contrast, the carbon dioxide emissions of fossil energy
in Europe and North America have a downward trend, which is inseparable from the
relatively advanced electricity trade and the use of renewable energy. The development
of electricity markets and the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in North America
and Europe have provided a model for the development of the cross-border electricity
trade, breaking the traditional mindset of simultaneous growth of the economy and carbon
dioxide emissions. According to statistics from the IEA database [71], North America is
the region with the highest per capita carbon dioxide emissions. From 2000 to 2018, North
America’s per capita carbon dioxide fell from 15.9 t to 12.1 t. Europe’s per capita carbon
dioxide emissions fell by 17.14%, and the emissions in the rest of the world increased.
Among them, the largest increase is in the Asia–Pacific region. Although its per capita
carbon dioxide emissions are less than 4t, the increase rate reached 85.7%. Regardless of
Europe have provided a model for the development of the cross-border electricity trade,
breaking the traditional mindset of simultaneous growth of the economy and carbon di-
oxide emissions. According to statistics from the IEA database [71], North America is the
region with the highest per capita carbon dioxide emissions. From 2000 to 2018, North
Sustainability 2021, 13, 5797 America’s per capita carbon dioxide fell from 15.9 t to 12.1 t. Europe’s per capita carbon8 of 25
dioxide emissions fell by 17.14%, and the emissions in the rest of the world increased.
Among them, the largest increase is in the Asia–Pacific region. Although its per capita
carbon dioxide emissions are less than 4t, the increase rate reached 85.7%. Regardless of
whether
whether itit is
is per
percapita
capitacarbon
carbondioxide
dioxide emissions
emissions or or total
total carbon
carbon dioxide
dioxide emissions,
emissions, the the
remainsthe
trend remains thesame.
same.
Figure
Figure 1.
1. Fossil
Fossilfuel
fuelcarbon
carbondioxide
dioxideemissions
emissions(Mt).
(Mt).
Figure
Figure 22shows
showsthe theproduction
production and
and consumption
consumption of electricity in different
of electricity regions,
in different regions,
and
and all
all of
of them
themkeepkeepthethesame
sameupward
upward trend.
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terms
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thanthat
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consumption. TheTheAsia–Pacific
Asia–Pacific
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region has the largest growth rate, with electricity production increasing 9114
has the largest growth rate, with electricity production increasing by TWH
by 9114 TWH
and electricity consumption increasing by 7133 TWH. At the beginning of
and electricity consumption increasing by 7133 TWH. At the beginning of the 21st century, the 21st century,
the
the Asia–Pacific
Asia–Pacifichas hasbecome
become thethe
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largest production
electricity and consumption
production and consumptionregion region
in
the world, surpassing North America. At the same time, carbon dioxide
in the world, surpassing North America. At the same time, carbon dioxide emissions emissions in this
region
in this are also are
region the largest.
also theInlargest.
terms ofInrelative
terms value, the growth
of relative value,rate
theof global rate
growth electricity
of global
production is 72.03%, and the growth rate of global electricitydemand
electricity production is 72.03%, and the growth rate of global electricitydemand is 74.03%. Theislow-
74.03%.
speed
The growth of growth
low-speed electricity
of production cannot meet cannot
electricity production the high-speed
meet the growth of power
high-speed de- of
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mand, resulting
power demand,inresulting
a global electricity
in a globalimbalance.
electricityThe change inThe
imbalance. production
change in and consump- and
production
tion of electricity is relatively consistent with the changing trend of
consumption of electricity is relatively consistent with the changing trend of carboncarbon dioxide emis-
dioxide
sions, which proves that carbon dioxide emissions are closely related to electricity, and
emissions, which proves that carbon dioxide emissions are closely related to electricity,
the growth of electricity demand and electricity generation also brings higher carbon
and the growth of electricity demand and electricity generation also brings higher carbon
emissions. However, North America and Europe are two exceptions. Their electricity sup-
emissions. However, North America and Europe are two exceptions. Their electricity
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER ply and demand are also rising, but their carbon dioxide emissions, as we mentioned,9 are
REVIEW of 27
supply and demand are also rising, but their carbon dioxide emissions, as we mentioned,
falling.
are falling.
(a) (b)
Figure
Figure 2. 2. Featurefacts:
Feature facts:(a)
(a)Electricity
Electricity production
production (TWh);
(TWh); (b)
(b)Electricity
Electricityconsumption
consumption(TWh).
(TWh).
Figure 3 shows the proportion of renewable energy electricity generation in various

regions. The proportion of renewable energy in global electricity production is on the rise.
The highest proportion of renewable energy is in Latin America, exceeding 50%. A renew-
able energy development report released by the Inter-American Development Bank
shows that four of the countries with the best renewable energy development index in the
Sustainability 2021, 13, 5797 (a) (b) 9 of 25
Figure 2. Feature facts: (a) Electricity production (TWh); (b) Electricity consumption (TWh).
Figure 33 shows
Figure shows thethe proportion
proportion of of renewable
renewable energy energy electricity
electricity generation
generation in in various
various
regions. The proportion of renewable energy in global electricity production is on rise.
regions. The proportion of renewable energy in global electricity production is on the the
The highest
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The highest of renewable
proportion energy energy
of renewable is in Latin America,
is in exceedingexceeding
Latin America, 50%. A renew-50%.
able
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shows that
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largest share ofof renewable
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wherethe theproportion
proportionofofrenewable
renewableenergyenergyelectricity
generation
can
can reach 36.41%, and and the
the proportion
proportioncontinues
continuestotorise. rise.Europe
Europeaims aimstoto increase
increase the
the use
use of
of renewable
renewable energy,
energy, andand through
through an an advanced
advanced electricity
electricity trading
trading market,
market, increase
increase the the
ex-
export
port of of electricity
electricity fromfrom countries
countries withwithmoremore renewable
renewable energy.
energy. The growth
The growth rate of rate
renew-of
renewable energy in electricity generation in Africa and other regions
able energy in electricity generation in Africa and other regions is relatively low, and the is relatively low, and
the proportion
proportion of fossil
of fossil fuels
fuels is is growing
growing fasterthan
faster thanthat
thatofofrenewable
renewable energy.
energy. Europe
Europe andand
North
North America have high growth rates, increasing by 81.23% and 51% respectively, which
America have high growth rates, increasing by 81.23% and 51% respectively, which
mutually
mutually confirms
confirms thethe reduction
reduction in in carbon
carbon dioxide
dioxide emissions
emissions and and sufficient
sufficient electricity
electricity inin
Europe
Europe and and North
North America
America above.
above.
Figure 3. Renewable energy

Figure 3. energy in
in electricity
generation (%).
(%).
4. Structural Characteristics of Cross-Border Electricity Trade Network

4.1. Overall Network Structure
This section describes the three aspects of network scale, clustering coefficient and
reciprocity coefficient, showing the evolution of the overall structure of the cross-border
electricity trade network.
From Figure 4, we can see that electricity trade is not as densely networked as ordinary
commodities, but rather regional. The network density of European economies is large,
showing a complex and interwoven shape, and the electricity trade is relatively mature.
Russia, as the link between Eurasia and Europe, radiates to Asia and Europe, while China
is more inclined to trade electricity with economies in South Asia and Southeast Asia.
North America, South America and southern Africa also have their own internal electricity
trade network, among which the trade volume between the United States and Canada is
very large.
nary commodities, but rather regional. The network density of European economies is
large, showing a complex and interwoven shape, and the electricity trade is relatively ma-
ture. Russia, as the link between Eurasia and Europe, radiates to Asia and Europe, while
China is more inclined to trade electricity with economies in South Asia and Southeast
Asia. North America, South America and southern Africa also have their own internal
electricity trade network, among which the trade volume between the United States and
Canada is very large.
Figure 4. Global electricity trade network in 2018. The thickness of the line indicates the volume of trade, the thicker the
Figure 4. Global electricity trade network in 2018. The thickness of the line indicates the volume of trade, the thicker the
lines, the greater the electricity trade between the two economies.
lines, the greater the electricity trade between the two economies.
Figure 5a displays the number of nodes and edges of the cross-border electricity trade
Figure 5a displays the number of nodes and edges of the cross-border electricity trade
network from 2000 to 2018. The overall scale of the network continues to expand. During
network fromthe
the 19 years, 2000 to 2018.
number ofThe overall scale
economies of the network
participating continues to expand.
in the cross-border During
electricity trade
the 19 years,
network the number
has changed fromof103
economies
in 2000 to participating
121 in 2018, inandthe
thecross-border electricity
number of global trade
electricity
network has changed from 103 in 2000 to 121 in 2018, and the number of global
trade relations increased from 265 in 2000 to 434 in 2018, an increase of 63.77%. After 2005, electricity
trade relations
the scale increased
of trade began to from 265 in to
continue 2000
risetosharply,
434 in 2018, an increase
indicating of 63.77%.
that with After 2005,
the deepening of
the scale of trade began to continue to rise sharply, indicating that with
globalization, electricity trade connections between economies have become closer. The the deepening of
globalization,
increase in theelectricity
number of trade connections
electricity trade between economies
relationships between have become
nodes closer.than
is greater The
increase in the
the increase in number
the numberof electricity tradeparticipating
of economies relationshipsinbetween nodes is greater
the cross-border than
electricity the
trade
increase
network, inindicating
the number ofthe
that economies
growth participating
of the global in the cross-border
electricity trade electricity
network is trade
more net-
about
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 11 of 27
work, indicating that
verticalexpansion theexisting
on the growth network,
of the global
whileelectricity trade network isprocess
the horizontalexpansion more about ver-
of adding
ticalexpansion on
new economies is slow.the existing network, while the horizontalexpansion process of adding
new economies is slow.
(a) (b)
Figure
Figure 5.
5. Overall
Overall network
network structure
structure of
of cross-border
cross-border electricity
electricity trade
trade network:
network: (a)
(a) 2000–2018
2000–2018 cross-border
electricity trade
trade
network
network scale;
scale; (b)
(b) 2000–2018
2000–2018 cross-border
electricity trade clustering coefficient
trade clustering coefficient and
and reciprocity
reciprocity coefficient.
coefficient.
In the overall structure of the trade network, the close connections between nodes are
gradually developing towards regionalization and grouping. We measure the clustering
coefficient in the cross-border electricity trade network to show the agglomeration effect
in the network. Reciprocity represents the interoperability of trade between economies.
The following conclusions can be drawn from Figure 5b: (1) The reciprocity of the global
electricity trade network is high. Its lowest value is 0.572 in 2003, while the highest is 0.724
In the overall structure of the trade network, the close connections between nodes are
gradually developing towards regionalization and grouping. We measure the clustering
coefficient in the cross-border electricity trade network to show the agglomeration effect
in the network. Reciprocity represents the interoperability of trade between economies.
The following conclusions can be drawn from Figure 5b: (1) The reciprocity of the global
electricity trade network is high. Its lowest value is 0.572 in 2003, while the highest is
0.724 in 2010. (2) Since 2001 and 2012, the reciprocity of the cross-border electricity trade
network declined sharply, and they reached the bottom in 2003 and 2014 respectively.
At the beginning of the 21st century, the global economic recession is accompanied by the
rise of oil prices, which reduce electricity trade. In the post-crisis era, the global economy
still faces many uncertainties, leading to uncertainty in trade. (3) The clustering coefficient
of cross-border electricity trade varies between 0.36 and 0.45. It has a good upward trend
from 2000 to 2009, reaching its peak in 2009, but there has been a downward trend since
then. This is due to the addition of new economies, as well as geographical constraints,
which leads to a decline in the degree of agglomeration.
4.2. Analysis of Individual Network Structure

At the individual level of the cross-border electricity trade network, this paper de-
scribes the degree centrality and betweenness centrality, and further decomposes the degree
centrality into in-degree centrality and out-degree centrality to measure each economy’s
status in the network. Our purpose is to show the changing status of each economy in the
global power trade network. Although the European electricity market is highly integrated
with a lot of small countries, we do not regard it as a whole because comparison with other
countries can better show the development of each country in the global electricity trade
network. Table 1 shows the statistical results.
The degree centrality reflects the number of electricity trade relations between an
economy and other economies in the electricity trade network. It can be seen from Table 1
that whether it is in-degree centrality, out-degree centrality or total degree centrality, the
top nine in the world over the years are almost European countries. The reason is that
the electricity trade in Europe started early and has relatively mature technology and
institutional systems, which has established its status in the global electricity trade network.
The European Union proposes that in 2020, the interconnection capacity of each member
country will account for at least 10% of the national installed capacity, and it will reach 15%
in 2030. Meanwhile, Europe’s total electricity installed capacity ranks third, followed by
the Asia–Pacific region and North America. However, the proportion of renewable energy
installed capacity in Europe far exceeds that in North America and the Asia–Pacific region,
and the growth rate is relatively fast, increasing from 23.48% in 2000 to 45.92% in 2018.
Europe has relatively high electricity installed capacity and the proportion of renewable
energy installed capacity, which has promoted the development of cross-border electricity
trade in European countries. See Appendix C for details. Germany has been among the
top six in degree centrality for 19 years. However, Germany’s trading partners are stable
between 25 and 30 economies, and the increase is not as large as that of economies such as
the Czech Republic and Bulgaria. The main reason is that Germany is located in central
Europe, and its electricity trading partners are almost limited to Europe, while economies
such as the Czech Republic and Bulgaria are located in central and eastern Europe and can
trade electricity with Asian economies to expand trading partners. With the construction of
the Eurasian electricity sub-network in recent years, Uzbekistan’s centrality of out-degree
has risen to the top in 2018. Uzbekistan is located at the junction of the European and
Asian sub-networks, giving full play to its geographical advantages to trade electricity with
other economies. The last few economies with degree centrality are mostly developing
economies in Africa, South America, South Asia and Southeast Asia. These economies
have backward electricity trade development and underdeveloped infrastructure, and they
can only trade electricity with neighboring economies. However, it also reflects from the
side that with the expansion of global electricity trade, more and more new economies
have joined it for mutual benefit.
Table 1. Individual structure characteristics of cross-border electricity trade network.
In-Degree Out-Degree Degree Betweenness

Year Rank Centrality Centrality Centrality Centrality
Economy ID Economy OD Economy D Economy BC
1 DEU 12 DEU 13 DEU 25 CHE 0.114
2 CHE 10 RUS 13 CHE 20 RUS 0.107
3 FRA 9 CHE 10 RUS 20 SVK 0.106
4 SVK 8 BEL 10 FRA 28 SCG 0.101
2000 5 HRV 8 FRA 9 BEL 16 DEU 0.097
6 SWE 8 GBR 8 SVK 15 POL 0.082
7 NLD 7 SVK 7 GBR 15 BGR 0.059
8 GBR 7 HRV 7 HRV 15 FIN 0.047
9 SCG 7 AUT 7 SVN 14 NLD 0.038
1 DEU 15 DEU 14 DEU 29 SRB 0.096
2 SVN 12 POL 10 SVN 22 RUS 0.081
3 CHE 12 SVN 10 CHE 21 DEU 0.081
4 HRV 10 HRV 10 HRV 20 BIH 0.074
2005 5 CZE 10 CZE 10 CZE 20 FIN 0.068
6 GBR 9 CHE 9 ESP 18 DNK 0.067
7 ESP 9 ESP 9 POL 16 NOR 0.067
8 AUT 8 ROU 9 GBR 15 SVN 0.051
9 HUN 7 UKR 8 ROU 14 HUN 0.046
1 SVN 20 CZE 18 SVN 36 RUS 0.155
2 CZE 17 SVN 16 CZE 35 UKR 0.125
3 GRC 16 CHE 14 DEU 27 HRV 0.105
4 DEU 14 DEU 13 CHE 26 ROU 0.087
2010 5 CHE 12 HUN 13 GRC 24 DEU 0.086
6 SRB 12 HRV 11 SRB 23 SVK 0.081
7 HRV 11 ESP 11 HRV 22 CHN 0.074
8 AUT 10 SRB 11 HUN 21 GRC 0.069
9 ROU 8 RUS 11 ESP 19 CZE 0.066
1 NLD 26 CZE 19 CZE 39 RUS 0.153
2 CZE 20 SVN 17 SVN 35 SVN 0.150
3 SVN 18 BGR 17 NLD 31 NLD 0.114
4 GRC 14 ITA 14 DEU 27 IRL 0.107
2015 5 SRB 14 DEU 13 CHE 26 ITA 0.099
6 DEU 14 CHE 13 ESP 25 CHN 0.088
7 CHE 13 ESP 13 SRB 25 BIH 0.088
8 ESP 12 RUS 12 BGR 24 EST 0.075
9 ITA 10 SRB 11 ITA 24 ROU 0.067
1 CZE 23 UZB 23 CZE 44 RUS 0.191
2 BGR 18 CZE 21 BGR 34 GRC 0.115
3 SVN 17 BGR 16 SVN 32 GEO 0.111
4 GRC 15 SVN 15 GRC 28 CZE 0.111
2018 5 DEU 14 DEU 14 DEU 28 UZB 0.101
6 SRB 12 GRC 13 UZB 25 KGZ 0.099
7 CHE 12 ITA 12 ITA 23 KAZ 0.098
8 ITA 11 SRB 11 SRB 23 TUR 0.091
9 HUN 11 HUN 11 CHE 22 CHN 0.079
When analyzing the network, we should not only look at the number of trading
partners of an economy but also whether this economy plays an important role in the
network. The economies with high betweenness centrality in 2000 were all European
economies, and most of them were economies in Central and Western Europe because
there was relatively little electricity trade between economies in other continents. In 2010,
economies with high betweenness centrality gradually moved from west to east within
Europe. Eastern European economies such as Russia, Ukraine and Romania were connected
to Asia, connecting Europe and the Asian continent, forming the Eurasian sub-network.
With the pass of time and the expansion of the electricity trade network, the economies
with high betweenness centrality in the cross-border electricity trade network in 2018 were
not limited to Europe but expanded to Asia. It is precisely because these economies are
located in important hubs that the networks of various regions can be connected. Whether
it is degree centrality or betweenness centrality, there is a trend of eastward migration,
while the trend of betweenness centrality shifting eastward is obvious.
4.3. Analysis of Network Motif

In order to further explore the microstructure of cross-border electricity trade, this
paper uses Mavisto software [72] to get statistics on the partial structure that appears re-
peatedly in the network. We conducted 1000 random simulations to compare the frequency
of the corresponding structure in the real network and the random network to decide
whether this motif exists significantly in the cross-border electricity trade network. If p = 0,
it is significant, and vice versa. The higher the Z-score is, the more important the motif is
in the cross-border electricity trade network. The content of this section is closely related
to the analysis of influencing factors below. From the above analysis, we can know that
the scale of global electricity trade in 2015 and 2018 are quite similar. Therefore, due to the
availability of data, this article takes 2015 as an example for analysis.
Table 2 reports the relevant situation of the motif in the cross-border electricity trade
network in 2015. The motifs F7F, F8R, and GCR are not significant in the cross-border
electricity trade network, which means the frequency of these three modes in the real
network is lower than that in the random network. It may be because these three motifs
neither include reciprocal edges, and there is no connection between the two economies.
With the continuous and deep evolution of economic globalization, reciprocal trade has
become an important pattern in international trade. The K4F model has the highest
Z-score which means that the mode of reciprocal trade between the two economies is
more important in the electricity trade network, but its frequency is less, so it is necessary
to further expand the reciprocal trade in the cross-border electricity trade network. The
Z-scores of GQX and GDF models ranked second and third respectively, and both included
two reciprocal sides, which once again confirmed the importance of reciprocal trade in the
real network. F8R, F8X, and GCX are the most frequently used motifs, which reflect the
imbalance in cross-border electricity trade. These three motifs share the pattern that two
economies have no trade relationship, and there is a one-way export situation, indicating
that in the cross-border electricity trade, there is more one-way transmission trade, and the
electricity demand and supply of economies are imbalanced. The last column shows that
the top three economies of various motifs in the cross-border electricity trade network are
all located in Europe, and most of the top three economies are dominated by the Czech
Republic, Slovenia and Germany. The European electricity trade network covers a wide
range. From the centrality analysis in the previous section, it can also be seen that the Czech
Republic, Slovenia and Germany take part in cross-border electricity trade frequently and
play an important role in the formation of the network.
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Table
Table 2.
2. Individual
Individual structure
structure characteristics
characteristics of
of cross-border
electricity trade
trade network
network
Table 2.
Table2. Individual
2.Individual structure
Individualstructure characteristics
structurecharacteristics of
characteristicsof cross-border
ofcross-border electricity
cross-borderelectricity trade
electricitytrade network
tradenetwork
network
Table
Table 2.
Table 2.
Table Individual
2. Individual structure
Individual structure characteristics
structure characteristics of
characteristics of cross-border
of cross-border electricity
cross-border electricity trade
electricity trade network
trade network
network
Code
Code Table
Motif
Motif
Table 2.
2. Individual structure
Frequency
Frequency
Individual structure characteristics
p-Value
p-Value
characteristics of
of cross-border
Z-Score
Z-Score
electricity trade
trade network
Top
Top
network
Individual structure
Table 2.Code Tablecharacteristics
Motif Frequency
2. Individual of cross-border
structure electricity trade
p-Value
characteristics network in 2015.
Z-Score Top
Code
Code
Code
Code Motif
Motif
Motif
Motif Frequency
Frequency
Frequency
Frequency p-Value of cross-border
p-Value
p-Value
p-Value Z-Score electricity trade network
Z-Score
Z-Score
Z-Score Top Top
Top
Top
Code
Code Motif
Motif Frequency
Frequency p-Value
p-Value Z-Score
Z-Score Top
Top
Code
Code
F7F
F7F Motif
Motif Frequency
Frequency
1555 p-Value
p-Value 1 Z-Score
Z-Score 0 Top Three CZE (332); Top
SVN
F7F
F7F 1555
1555 11 00 CZE (332);
CZE (332); SVN SVN
F7F
F7F
F7F 1555
1555
1555 1111 0000 CZE (332); CZE
CZE (332);
CZE (332);
(332); SVN SVN
SVN
F7F
F7F 1555
1555 1 0 CZE
CZE (332);
(332); SVN
SVN
F7FF7F 1555
1555 1 1 0 0 SVN (301); CZE (332); SVN
F8R
F8R 2859
2859 11 00 DEU (213) CZE
CZE (651);
(651); SVN SVN
F8R
F8R 2859
2859 11 00 CZE (651); CZE
CZE (651);
(651); SVN
SVN
F8R
F8R
F8R
F8R 2859
2859
2859
2859 1 1
1 0 0
0 CZE
CZE (651);
(651);
CZE (651);
(651); SVN SVN
SVN
SVN
F8R
F8R 2859
2859 1 11 0 00 SVN (600); CZE
CZE (651); SVN
F8R 2859 1 0 CZE (651); SVN
DEU (426)
F8X
F8X 2297
2297 00 22.415
22.415 CZE
CZE (555); SVN
F8X 2297 0 22.415 CZE (555); CZE (555);
(555); SVN SVN
F8X
F8X
F8X 2297
2297
2297 0 0 0 22.415
22.415
22.415 CZE
CZE
CZE (555);
(555);
(555); SVN SVN
SVN
F8X
F8X
F8X 2297
2297
2297 0 0
00 22.415
22.415
22.415 SVN CZE
(532);
CZE (555); SVN
F8X 2297 22.415 DEU (361) CZE (555);
(555); SVN SVN
FKX
FKX 1182
1182 00 33.073
33.073 SVN
SVN (348); CZ
FKX 1182 0 33.073 SVN (348); SVN (348);
(348); CZ CZ
FKX
FKX
FKX
FKX 1182
1182
1182
1182 0 0 0 0 33.073
33.073
33.073
33.073 CZE SVN
SVN
SVN
(310); (348);
(348);
(348); CZE CZ
CZ
FKX
FKX 1182
1182 0
00 33.073
33.073 SVN
SVN (348); CZ
FKX 1182 33.073 DEU (219) SVN (348);
(348); CZE CZ
FMF
FMF 484
484 00 47.008
47.008 SVN
SVN (156); CZ
FMF 484 0 47.008 SVN (156); SVN (156);
(156); CZ CZ
FMF
FMF
FMF
FMF 484
484
484
484 0 0 0 0 47.008
47.008
47.008
47.008 CZE SVN
SVN
(129);
SVN (156);
(156);
(156); CZ CZ
CZ
FMF
FMF 484
484 0
00 47.008
47.008 SVN
SVN (156); CZ
FMF 484 47.008 DEU (95) SVN (156);
(156); CZ CZ
GCR
GCR 1620
1620 11 00 NLD (355); NLD
NLD (355);
(355); CZ
CZ
GCR
GCR 1620
1620 11 00 NLD
NLD (355);
(355); CZ
CZ
GCR
GCR
GCR
GCR
GCR 1620
1620
1620
1620
1620
1 11 1
1 0 00 0
0 CZE NLD
NLD
(354);
NLD (355);
NLD (355);
(355);
(355); CZ CZ
CZ
CZ
GCR
GCR 1620
1620 1 1 0 0 SVN (320) NLD (355);
NLD (355); CZ CZ
GCX
GCX 2228
2228 00 20.369
20.369 CZE (563); CZE
CZE (563); SVN
GCX 2228 0 20.369 CZE (563);
(563); SVN SVN
GCX
GCX
GCX
GCX 2228
2228
2228
2228 0 0 0 0 20.369
20.369
20.369
20.369 SVN CZE
CZE
(533);
CZE (563);
(563);
(563); SVN SVN
SVN
GCX
GCX 2228
2228 00 20.369
20.369 CZE (563);
CZE (563); SVN
SVN
GCX 2228 0 20.369 DEU (377) CZE (563); SVN
GDF
GDF 881
881 00 50.037
50.037 CZE (237); CZE
CZE (237); SVN
GDF 881 0 50.037 CZE (237);
(237); SVN SVN
GDF
GDF
GDF
GDF 881
881
881
881 0 0 0 0 50.037
50.037
50.037
50.037 SVN CZE
(234);
CZE
CZE (237);
(237);
(237); SVN SVN
SVN
GDF
GDF 881
881 0
00 50.037
50.037 CZE
CZE (237); SVN
GDF 881 50.037 CHE (159) CZE (237);
(237); SVN SVN
GOX
GOX 346
346 00 21.173
21.173 SVN (107); SVN
SVN (107);
(107); CZ
CZ
GOX
GOX
GOX 346
346
346 0 00 21.173
21.173
21.173 CZE SVN
SVN
(90); (107);
(107); CZ
CZ
GOX
GOX
GOX
GOX 346
346
346
346 00 0
0 21.173
21.173
21.173
21.173 SVN
SVN (107);
(107);
SVN (107);
SVN (107); CZ CZ
CZ
CZ
GOX
GOX 346
346 0 0 21.173
21.173 DEU (71) SVN (107);
SVN (107); CZ CZ
GQX 731 00 73.844 SVN (259); SVN (259); CZ
GQX
GQX
GQX 731
731
731 0 0 73.844
73.844
73.844 CZE (204); SVN
SVN (259);
(259); CZ
CZ
GQX
GQX
GQX
GQX 731
731
731
731 0 0
0
0 73.844
73.844
73.844
73.844 SVN
SVN
SVN
SVN (259);
(259);
(259);
(259); CZ
CZ
CZE
CZ
GQX
GQX 731
731 00 73.844
73.844 DEU SVN
(170)
SVN (259);
(259); CZ
CZE
GQX 731 0 73.844 SVN (290); SVN (259); CZ
IMF
IMFIMF 873
873
873 0 00 43.343
43.343
43.343 CZE (236); SVN
SVN (290);
(290); CZ CZ
IMF
IMF 873
873 00 43.343
43.343 SVN
SVN (290);
(290); CZ
CZ
IMF
IMF
IMF
IMF 873
873
873
873 000 0 43.343
43.343
43.343
43.343 DEU (191) SVN
SVN (290);
(290);
SVN (290);
SVN (290); CZ CZ
CZE
CZ
IMF
IMF 873
873 0 0 43.343
43.343 SVN (290);
SVN (290); CZ CZE
SVN (147);
JQFJQF
JQF 451
451
451 0 00 41.072
41.072
41.072 CZE (126); SVN
SVN (147);(147); CZ CZ
JQF
JQF 451
451 00 41.072
41.072 SVN
SVN (147);
(147); CZ
CZ
JQF
JQF
JQF
JQF 451
451
451
451 000 0 41.072
41.072
41.072
41.072
DEU SVN
SVN
(98)
SVN (147);
SVN (147);
(147);
(147); CZ CZ
CZ
CZ
JQF
JQF 451
451 0 0 41.072
41.072 SVN SVN
(38); (147);
SVN (147); CZ CZ
K4F
K4F 102
102 0 0 98.609
98.609 CZE (29); SVN (38); CZ
K4F
K4F 102
102 00 98.609
98.609 SVN
SVN (38); (38); CZ CZ
K4F
K4F 102
102 0 0 98.609
98.609 DEU (25)SVN
SVN (38);
(38); CZ
K4F
K4F 102
102 0 0 98.609
98.609 SVN
SVN (38); CZ
(38); CZ
CZ
K4F
K4F 102
102 00 98.609
98.609 SVN
SVN (38); (38); CZ CZ
5. Analysis of Influencing Factors5. Analysis
5.of of
of Influencing
Cross-Border
Analysis Electricity
Influencing Factors
Tradeof
Factors of Cross-Border
Cross-Border Electricity
Network Electricity T T
5.
5. Analysis
Analysis of
of Influencing
Influencing Factors
Factors of
of Cross-Border
Cross-Border Electricity
Electricity T
T
Analyzing the cross-border 5. 5.
5. Analysis
Analysis
5. Analysis
Analysis
Analyzing
electricity of
of
trade
of Influencing
Influencing
of Influencing
Influencing
the
modelcross-border
from Factors
Factors
Factors of
the overall
Factors ofof Cross-Border
Cross-Border
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electricity Cross-Border
andtrade
individual Electricity
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model from
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To test whether economies with the same level of per capita carbon dioxide emissions
are more inclined to trade in electricity, we divide per capita carbon dioxide emissions
into three levels: high, medium, and low. The top 25% belongs to the low carbon group,
the bottom 25% being high, and the rest are medium grades. The result is analyzed
separately based on the medium grade. (2) Heterophily applies to continuous variables
to test the influence of the differences in attributes between economies on the formation
of the electricity trade network. This paper selects the economic development level of
economies, industrial structure, electricity price and electricity installed capacity to measure
the impact of attribute differences. (3) The receiving effect is used to analyze whether an
economy with a certain attribute in the network is more inclined to import electricity, and
the sending effect corresponds to the inclination to export electricity. In this part, we select
the proportion of renewable energy electricity generation, electricity production, electricity
demand and electricity loss.
5.1.3. Network Embedding Effect

Network covariates examine the important factors in the formation of the electricity
trade network from the exogenous context. We analyze the common language network,
the distance network and the institutional difference network from the perspective of
the “embedding” of the exogenous network. Common language selects whether the
two economies have the same official language. Having a common language between
the two economies will reduce the cost of trade and thus facilitate the occurrence of trade
between economies [74]. Distance has a greater impact on trade [75]. With the development
of technology and the diversification of transportation methods, the impact of distance
on general trade has been greatly reduced. However, since electricity trade has high
requirements for geographical restrictions, trade may be more likely to occur in economies
that are close to each other. In order to better illustrate the positive influence of distance, we
select the reciprocal of distance for analysis. The institutional difference index is calculated
according to Equation (11). The political system and governance model between economies
will affect the formation of global trade to a large extent [76]. The institutional difference
index comprehensively measures the governance indicators of various economies from the
six governance dimensions of voice and accountability, political stability and no violence,
government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and control of corruption [77,78].
WGIij is the institutional distance between economy i and economy j, and respectively
represent the scores of i and j in institutional dimension k, and represent the maximum
and minimum of institutional dimension k respectively.
1 6 Iik − Ijk
WGIij = ∑ |
6 k maxIk − minIk
| (11)
5.2. ERGM Results

Table 4 shows the ERGM results. See the Appendix A for the meaning of variables.
First, analyze the benchmark model (1) that only includes endogenous structural variables.
The edges are negative and the edges are mainly used as the intercept term in ERGM,
so there is no need to explain its economic meaning. Mutual is significantly positive
at the 1% level, indicating that economies in the cross-border electricity trade network
are more inclined to have electricity trade with each other, and compared with random
networks, the probability of reciprocal trade between economies in the real network is
higher. The existing trade can no longer be fully explained by comparative advantages and
factor endowments and is more inclined to intra-industry trade, which is consistent with
the results of the motif analysis.
Table 4. ERGM analysis of cross-border electricity trade in 2015.
Benchmark Attribute Compound

Variables Network Covariate Model
Model Model Model
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
−4.540 *** −4.087 *** −3.329 *** −4.115 *** −4.799 *** −4.250 ***
Edges
(0.095) (0.046) (0.045) (0.043) (0.040) (0.039)
Pure structural variables
5.491 *** 5.314 *** 5.138 *** 5.263 *** 4.683 *** 4.596 ***
Mutual
(0.205) (0.019) (0.019) (0.018) (0.019) (0.018)
Homophily 0.373 *** 0.231 *** 0.354 *** 0.224 *** 0.141 **
(pco2) (0.066) (0.070) (0.066) (0.062) (0.065)
Receiver −0.113 *** −0.090 ** −0.177 *** −0.022 *** −0.088 ***
(pco2low) (0.040) (0.042) (0.039) (0.006) (0.003)
Sender −0.840 *** −0.826 *** −0.913 *** −0.762 *** −0.815 ***
(pco2low) (0.037) (0.040) (0.037) (0.006) (0.004)
Receiver 0.546 *** 0.569 *** 0.513 *** 0.470 *** 0.448 ***
(pco2high) (0.053) (0.053) (0.054) (0.055) (0.054)
Sender −0.307 *** −0.263 *** −0.349 *** −0.317 *** −0.341 ***
(pco2high) (0.050) (0.050) (0.051) (0.049) (0.048)
Heterophily −0.0002 ** −0.0002 ** −0.0002 ** −0.0002 ** −0.0002 **
(GDP) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001)
Receiver 0.0001 ** 0.0001 ** 0.0001 * 0.0001 ** 0.0001 ***
Actor attribute variables (GDP) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001)
Sender 0.0004 *** 0.0004 *** 0.0004 *** 0.0003 ** 0.0003 **
(GDP) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001)
Heterophily −33.682 *** −29.308 *** −31.232 *** −17.055 *** −14.236 ***
(industry) (0.143) (0.138) (0.141) (0.135) (0.135)
Heterophily −0.042 *** −0.040 *** −0.042 *** −0.027 *** −0.029 ***
(price) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.010) (0.010)
Heterophily 0.001 0.001 0.0004 0.0003
0.0003 (0.001)
(capacity) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001)
Sender 0.169 *** 0.191 *** 0.193 *** 0.309 *** 0.290 ***
(renewable) (0.035) (0.032) (0.033) (0.014) (0.014)
Sender −0.013 *** −0.015 *** −0.013 *** −0.013 *** −0.013 ***
(consumption) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.004) (0.004)
Sender 0.012 *** 0.013 *** 0.011 *** 0.012 *** 0.012 ***
(generation) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003)
Sender −0.0003 0.005 *
0.00001 (0.003) −0.002 (0.003) 0.006 ** (0.003)
(loss) (0.003) (0.003)
Edgecov −3.204 *** −1.820 ***
(WGI) (0.011) (0.010)
Edgecov 0.739 *** 0.401 ***
Network covariates (language) (0.023) (0.011)
Edgecov 974.138 *** 863.523 ***
(distance) (1.521) (1.546)
AIC 2567.345 2414.505 2311.548 2378.616 1988.713 1958.653
BIC 2581.942 2538.577 2442.918 2509.986 2120.083 2104.620
Note: * significant at 10%, ** significant at 5%, *** significant at 1%.
Model (2) adds actor attribute variables to the benchmark model. Firstly, we analyze
the impact of the environment on cross-border electricity trade. Homophily (pco2) is
significantly positive, indicating that the current global electricity trade occurs between
economies with the same level of carbon dioxide emissions per capita. The reasons are
as follows: on the one hand, the electricity trade network is under development, and
most of the trade happens within regions. Therefore, from a global perspective, cross-
border electricitytrade is still carried out among economies with the same per capita carbon
dioxide emission level. On the other hand, in the ERGM matching test, the classification
data is used to divide the per capita carbon dioxide into three levels, which can only
show the trade situation between the levels, but not the trade situation within each level.
Furthermore, we test whether economies with more per capita CO2 emissions or economies
with less per capita CO2 emissions tend to import and export electricity from sender effect
and receiver effect. Receiver (pco2low) and Sender (pco2low) are significantly negative at
the 1% level, which means that economies with low per capita carbon dioxide emissions
are not inclined to electricity trade. The main reason is that economies with low per
capita carbon dioxide emissions are concentrated in Asia, Africa and some areas in Latin
America. These economies are economically backward, technologically underdeveloped
and geographic restrictions can stop them from trading electricity on a global scale. Receiver
(pco2high) and Sender (pco2high) are significantly positive and significantly negative at
the 1% level respectively. That means, economies with higher per capita carbon dioxide
emissions are more inclined to import electricity rather than export it, which is conducive
to the improvement of the global environment.
Secondly, we analyze the impact of economic development level on cross-border
electricity trade. Heterophily (GDP) is significantly negative at the 5% level, indicating that
economies with large GDP gaps are not inclined to develop electricity trade. Electricity
trade and economies with similar economic development levels are also very similar in
industrial structure and are more prone to trade. Receiver (GDP) and Sender (GDP) are
significantly positive, showing that economies with high GDP levels are more inclined
to develop electricity trade. Economies with higher economic levels also have high de-
mand for and supply of electricity, so they are more inclined to have trade relations with
other economies.
Thirdly, we explore the influence of industrial structure and electricity structure on the
formation of the electricity trade network. Heterophily (industry) is significantly negative,
showing that economies with large differences in industrial structure are not inclined to
electricity trade. The reason may be that economies with different industrial structures
have inconsistent electricity supply and demand, which makes it impossible to conduct
electricity trade. Heterophily (price) is significantly negative at the 5% level. The difference
in electricity prices between neighboring countries is small, and the geographical distance
hinders the long-distance cross-border electricity trade. Therefore, cross-border electricity
trade is more likely to occur between economies with small differences in electricity prices.
Sender (renewable) is significantly positive at the level of 1%, showing that economies with
a relatively high proportion of renewable energy electricity generation are more inclined
to export electricity. The electricity generation in economies with high renewable energy
resources can benefit the protection of the ecological environment by strengthening their
electricity export, which proves once again that cross-border electricitytrade is beneficial to
the environment. Sender (consumption) and Sender (generation) are significantly negative
and positive respectively at the 1% level, which means that electricity-producing economies
tend to export electricity while electricity-consuming economies are more inclined to import
electricity, confirming that cross-border electricity trade is helpful to solve the problem of
electricity supply and demand mismatch, thereby accelerating the speed of global electricity
production. In addition, the installed capacity and electricity losses have no significant
effect on the formation of the global electricity trade.
Next, we study the impact of institutional cost, cultural cost, and transportation cost
on the formation of cross-border electricity trade. Based on the attribute model (2), we
successively add the institutional difference network Edgecov (WGI), the common lan-
guage network Edgecov (language) and the distance network Edgecov (distance). Model
(3) examines the influence of institutional differences on the formation of the cross-border
electricity trade network. It is significantly negatively correlated at the level of 1%, in-
dicating that economies with greater institutional differences are less likely to develop
electricity trade, considering the increased trade costs and uncertainty risks. If an econ-
omy’s institution is more relaxed than another economy’s institution, thereby reducing the
production costs of products, we say the economy has institutional comparative advan-
tages [79]. Model (4) adds the common language network variable, and the coefficient is
significantly positive, showing that trade is more likely to occur when two economies have
a common language and cultural foundation. Barrier-free communication will promote the
formation of trade and reduce misunderstandings about cooperation agreements, which
can reduce cultural costs and trade risks. Model (5) adds the distance network variable, the
coefficient is significantly positive. The result makes sense since we use the reciprocal of
the actual geographic distance. It means long distances can lead to higher transportation
costs between economies, which is not conducive to generating electricity trade.
In addition, the compound model (6) puts all variables together for ERGM regression,
and the results of variables are approximately the same. The AIC and BIC values in
the compound model are relatively lower than the previous results, indicating that the
goodness of fit of the model has been further improved. The influence of distance is greater
which means that geographical factors play important roles in developing global electricity
trade, and distance is more restrictive for cross-border electricity trade.
To test the robustness of the conclusions, we further use ERGM to analyze the factors
affecting electricity trade in 2005 and 2010. Table 5 shows the dynamic comparison of the
factors affecting the cross-border electricity trade network in 2005, 2010, and 2015. Since we
only obtain electricity price data in 2015, we don’t include electricity price in the dynamic
analysis. It can be seen from Table 5 that the ERGM results in 2005 and 2010 are roughly
the same as the results in 2015. Except for individual variables that have changed, other
variables remain relatively stable. For example, heterophily (GDP) is not significant in 2010,
but the sign remains negative. Among them, Sender (pco2high) changes the most, from
non-significant, positive significant to negative significant, which indicates that economies
with large per capita carbon dioxide emissions are gradually reducing electricity export.
Table 5. Dynamic evolution of influencing factors in cross-border electricity trade.
Variables 2005 2010 2015

Attribute Compound Attribute Compound Attribute Compound
Model Model Model Model Model Model
−3.821 *** −4.032 *** −4.621 *** −4.839 *** −4.303 *** −4.391 ***
Edges
(0.050) (0.070) (0.039) (0.044) (0.035) (0.031)
Pure Structural variables
4.327 *** 3.555 *** 5.609 *** 4.998 *** 5.342 *** 4.614 ***
Mutual
(0.016) (0.018) (0.015) (0.016) (0.013) (0.012)
Homophily 0.347 *** −0.018 0.299 *** 0.046 0.365 *** 0.121 *
(pco2) (0.088) (0.110) (0.071) (0.090) (0.066) (0.065)
Receiver −0.492 *** −0.366 *** −0.873 *** −0.791 *** −0.158 *** −0.133 ***
(pco2low) (0.045) (0.054) (0.032) (0.035) (0.040) (0.004)
Sender −0.691 *** −0.455 *** −0.388 *** −0.445 *** −0.885 *** −0.846 ***
(pco2low) (0.048) (0.058) (0.039) (0.045) (0.037) (0.005)
Receiver 0.231 *** 0.324 *** 0.245 *** 0.555 *** 0.441 ***
0.064(0.078)
(pco2high) (0.068) (0.055) (0.064) (0.053) (0.051)
Sender −0.015 −0.118 0.149 *** 0.121 * −0.326 *** −0.359 ***
(pco2high) (0.069) (0.081) (0.054) (0.063) (0.050) (0.044)
Heterophily −0.0003 ** −0.0003 ** −0.0002 −0.0001 −0.0002 ** −0.0002 **
(GDP) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001)
Receiver 0.0004 *** 0.0004 *** 0.0001 * 0.0001 ** 0.0002 ***
0.0001 (0.0001)
Actor Attribute variables (GDP) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001)
Sender 0.0005 *** 0.001 *** 0.0004 ** 0.0003 ** 0.0003 *** 0.0002 *
(GDP) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001)
Heterophily −46.373 *** −30.567 *** −32.978 *** −17.278 *** −36.069 *** −15.817 ***
(industry) (0.092) (0.093) (0.112) (0.104) (0.137) (0.135)
Heterophily −0.002 −0.001 −0.0003 −0.0002 0.0002
0.0005 (0.001)
(capacity) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001)
Sender 0.119 *** 0.205 *** 0.541 *** 0.894 *** 0.134 *** 0.270 ***
(renewable) (0.045) (0.052) (0.037) (0.043) (0.031) (0.012)
Sender −0.029 *** −0.028 *** −0.026 *** −0.026 *** −0.011 *** −0.012 ***
(consumption) (0.006) (0.006) (0.005) (0.006) (0.003) (0.004)
Sender 0.027 *** 0.025 *** 0.024 *** 0.023 *** 0.010 *** 0.011 ***
(Generation) (0.005) (0.006) (0.004) (0.005) (0.003) (0.003)
Sender 0.007 0.025 *** 0.007 0.019 *** 0.004
−0.001 (0.003)
(loss) (0.007) (0.008) (0.005) (0.005) (0.003)
Table 5. Cont.
Variables 2005 2010 2015

Attribute Compound Attribute Compound Attribute Compound
Model Model Model Model Model Model
Edgecov −1.440 *** −1.673 *** −1.773 ***
(WGI) (0.028) (0.014) (0.009)
Network covariates Edgecov 0.738 *** 0.499 *** 0.371 ***
(language) (0.163) (0.017) (0.009)
Edgecov 801.902 *** 754.871 *** 875.894 ***
(distance) (1.189) (1.539) (1.537)
AIC 1638.516 1368.874 2025.382 1654.681 2434.686 1963.468
BIC 1747.725 1498.560 2140.263 1791.103 2551.459 2102.137
Note: * significant at 10%, ** significant at 5%, *** significant at 1%.
6. Conclusions
Based on the complex network analysis method, this paper analyzes the characteris-
tics of the cross-border electricity trade network structure from three levels: the overall,
individual and microstructure level. Furthermore, ERGM is used to reveal the factors
affecting the formation of the cross-border electricity trade network. The conclusions of
this paper are as follows:
(1) From the perspective of overall structural characteristics, the cross-border electricity
trade network continues to expand. However, due to the limitations of technology and
geographical location, many economies are still outside of the global electricity trade.
At present, the electricity trade network mainly expands in depth, and the growth of trade
relations is faster than that of the number of economies participating in electricity trade.
In addition, the degree of reciprocity among economies has been increasing, indicating
that economies tend to trade with each other. (2) From the perspective of individual
structural characteristics, the level of cross-border electricity trade in Europe is high and
plays an important role in the global electricity trade network. With the improving status
of Asian economies in the betweenness centrality, the global electricity trade network is
moving eastward. (3) From the perspective of influencing factors analysis, the cross-border
electricity trade network presents more reciprocity, and the influence factors on global
electricity trade are relatively stable. In terms of the environment, economies with a higher
proportion of renewable energy tend to export electricity, and economies with higher per
capita carbon dioxide emissions also tend to import electricity rather than export electricity,
which helps to reduce air pollution. In terms of heterophily, large gaps in GDP, electricity
prices and industrial structure between economies are not conducive to the formation of
a cross-border electricity trade network. With the development of the global value chain
and the prevalence of intermediate product trade, the economies with similar industrial
structures and similar economic development levels are more prone to intra-industry trade.
Moreover, in terms of electricity structure, electricity producing economies tend to export
electricity in the network, while electricity demand economies tend to import electricity,
which is conducive to reducing the mismatch of electricity supply and demand. Economies
with a high proportion of renewable energy generation also tend to export electricity, which
promotes the development of renewable energy. The installed electricity capacity and
electricity loss have no significant impact on cross-border electricity trade. Among network
covariates, geographic distance has the strongest negative influence on the formation of
the electricity trade network. Having a common language makes it easier to carry out
electricity trade, and large institutional gaps are barriers to the formation of a cross-border
electricity trade network.
Based on the conclusions of this paper, in order to promote the expansion of the
cross-border electricity trade network and achieve sustainable development, we make the
following suggestions to both market participants and the governments:
Participants in the electricity market should form a benign competitive relationship
to avoid the problem of line congestion. They should also abide by market rules and
take social responsibility. Electricity generation enterprises and sales companies could
actively strengthen cooperation with foreign electricity industries under the coordination
of national policies.
Governments should give full play to their leading roles and actively guide cross-
border electricity trade. Firstly, the governments should formulate energy conservation
and emission reduction policies. They could also provide technical and financial support to
electricity producers, to increase the proportion of renewable energy electricity generation
and reduce CO2 emissions. Secondly, governments of all economies should actively seek
transnational power cooperation to promote global grid interconnection. Strengthen
electricity trade cooperation to achieve steady growth of global electricity production
and reduce the mismatch between supply and demand. Europe and North America
should accelerate the transfer of technology to other backward regions, forming a new
development pattern of mutual assistance and mutual benefit. Thirdly, with the eastward
transfer of cross-border electricitytrade network, Asian economies should strengthen the
construction of power grid infrastructure, accelerate the use of renewable energy for
electricity generation, and cover the power grid to backward areas. The Eurasian continent
should strengthen the power interconnection and realize the power flow from low CO2
emissions economies to high CO2 emissions economies. Finally, economies should lower
the threshold of cross-border electricity trade and promote the free trade of electricity. For
example, reducing the institutional cost, cultural cost and transportation cost between
economies will contribute to the development of cross-border electricity trade networks.
Author Contributions: Conceptualization, Y.P. and Y.W.; methodology, Y.P.; software, Y.L.; visualiza-
tion, Y.W.; formal analysis, Y.L. and Y.W.; writing, Y.P. and Y.L. All authors have read and agreed to
the published version of the manuscript.
Funding: This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, grant
number 72003152; and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, grant num-
ber JBK2102054.
Institutional Review Board Statement: Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement: Not applicable.
Data Availability Statement: Publicly available datasets were analyzed in this study. Data sources
can be found in Appendix A.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Appendix A. Data Source and Data Description
Table A1. The definition and source of influencing factors in ERGM analysis.
Variable Definition Source

Pure structural effect
The influence of network density on the ERGM
Edges formation of network relations, which is https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/ergm/index.html
similar to a constant (accessed on 17 February 2021)
ERGM
Mutual Reciprocity https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/ergm/index.html
(accessed on 17 February 2021)
Actor attribute effect
World Development Indicators Database (WDI)
Carbon dioxide emissions per capita
https:
pco2 (It is divided into three levels according
//databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
to theemissions)
Gross domestic product (current prices, UNdata database
GDP
millions of US dollars) https://data.un.org/ (accessed on 17 February 2021)
Table A1. Cont.
Variable Definition Source

Actor attribute effect
https:
industry Proportion of secondary industry in GDP
Proportion of renewable energy in International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)
renewable
electricity production https://www.irena.org/ (accessed on 17 February 2021)
International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)
capacity Electricity installed capacity (MW)
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW https://www.irena.org/ (accessed on 17 February
24 of 2021)
27
UNdata database
consumption Electricity domestic consumption (TWh)
https://data.un.org/ (accessed on 17 February 2021)
Doing Business
UNdata database
generation Electricity production (TWh)
https://data.un.org/ (accessedhttps://data-
on 17 February 2021)
price Electricity price (price of electricity, US cents per kWh) bank.worldbank.org/source/d
UNdata database
loss Electricity losses (kilowatt-hours, million) oing-business (accessed on 17
https://data.un.org/ (accessed on 17 February 2021)
February 2021)
Network Doing Business
Electricity price (price of electricity, US embedding effect
price https://databank.worldbank.org/source/doing-business
World Development Indica- (accessed
cents per kWh)
tors Database (WDI)
Network embedding effect https://data-
WGI Matrix of institutional distance bank.worldbank.org/source/w
orld-development-indicators
https:
WGI Matrix of institutional distance (accessed on 17 February
2021)
CEPII Database
CEPII Database
Matrix of common language (official http://www.cepii.fr/cepii/en/b
languagelanguage Matrix of common languagehttp://www.cepii.fr/cepii/en/bdd_modele/bdd.asp
(official language) (accessed on
language) dd_modele/bdd.asp (accessed
17 February 2021)
CEPII Database
CEPII Database
distance Matrix of geographical distance http://www.cepii.fr/cepii/en/bdd_modele/bdd.asp (accessed on
http://www.cepii.fr/cepii/en/b
distance Matrix of geographical distance 17 February 2021)
dd_modele/bdd.asp (accessed
Appendix B. Electricity Trade, Electricity Supply and Demand
Appendix B. Electricity Trade, Electricity Supply and Demand
(a) (b)
Figure A1.Figure A1. Feature

Feature facts:facts: (a) Share
(a) Share of electricityexports
of electricity exports in
inelectricity
electricityproduction (%); (b)
production (%);Share of electricity
(b) Share imports inimports in
of electricity
electricity consumption (%).
electricity consumption (%).
AppendixC.
Appendix C.Electricity
Electricity Installed
Installed Capacity
Capacity
(a) (b)
Figure
FigureA2.
A2. Feature
Featurefacts:
facts:(a)Electricity
(a)Electricityinstalled
installedcapacity;
capacity;(b)
(b)Share
Share of
of renewables
renewables in
in electricity
electricity installed
installed capacity
capacity (%).
(%).
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sustainability

1 School of International Business, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,

Sustainability 2021, 13, 5797. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13115797 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability

2. Materials and Methods

2.2. Network Feature Measurements

2.2.1. Overall Structural Features

2.2.2. Individual Structural Features

Di = (ID i +ODi )/(2n − 2) (6)

2.2.3. Microstructure Features

2.3. ERGM Conceptualization

Influencing factor H is composed of network endogenous structural factor α, behavior

3. The Characteristic Fact Analysis

Figure 3 shows the proportion of renewable energy electricity generation in various

Figure 3. Renewable energy

4. Structural Characteristics of Cross-Border Electricity Trade Network

4.2. Analysis of Individual Network Structure

Table 1. Individual structure characteristics of cross-border electricity trade network.

In-Degree Out-Degree Degree Betweenness

4.3. Analysis of Network Motif

5.1.3. Network Embedding Effect

5.2. ERGM Results

Table 4. ERGM analysis of cross-border electricity trade in 2015.

Benchmark Attribute Compound

Note: * significant at 10%, ** significant at 5%, *** significant at 1%.

Table 5. Dynamic evolution of influencing factors in cross-border electricity trade.

Variables 2005 2010 2015

Variables 2005 2010 2015

Note: * significant at 10%, ** significant at 5%, *** significant at 1%.

Appendix A. Data Source and Data Description

Variable Definition Source

Table A1. Cont.

Variable Definition Source

Figure A1.Figure A1. Feature

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Note: * significant at 10%, significant at 5%, * significant at 1%.

Note: * significant at 10%, significant at 5%, * significant at 1%.