2023 L1 FixedIncome
2023 L1 FixedIncome
2023 L1 FixedIncome
Review 91
M.M128348126.
This document should be used in conjunction with the corresponding readings in the 2023 Level 1 CFA® Program curriculum.
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Institute.
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d. describe how legal, regulatory, and tax considerations affect the issuance
and trading of fixed-income securities
M.M128348126.
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⇒ Basic Features/
1/ Issuer
Supranational organizations
dfdf (World Bank)
gov’t. Governments ➞ sovereign (national)
sector ➞ non-sovereign (state, provincial, municipal)
➞ quasi-government (government owned or
corporate sponsored agencies)
sector Companies (corporate, either financial or non-financial)
Page 2
⇒ Basic Features/
LOS a
2/ Maturity - maturity date ➞ principal due - describe
- tenor ➞ time remaining to maturity date
M.M128348126. - range ➞ from overnight to 30 years (or longer)
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Page 3
⇒ Basic Features/
LOS a
4/ Coupon Rate & Frequency - describe
coupon ➞ annual amount of interest payments made
(coupon rate × par value)
e.g./ 6%, $1000 bond ⇒ $60 annually typically gov’t., corporate
$30 semi-annually
QUIBS - quarterly interest
$15 quarterly
QUIDS bonds
$5 monthly quarterly interest
MBS
debt securities
plain vanilla or conventional bond – fixed coupon
floating rate notes (FRNs, floaters) - a reference rate + a spread
London pays pays pays fluctuates constant
Interbank 4.75% 4.65% 4.50% (e.g. Libor) (in bps)
offered Dec June Dec June
e.g. Libor + 150 bps
rate (Libor)
3.25 3.15 3.00 2.95
Page 4
⇒ Basic Features/ LOS a
4/ Coupon Rate & Frequency - describe
no coupon payments - sold at a discount
zero-coupon bond
all income = interest
most money market securities = zero coupon
5/ Currency Denomination - can be issued in any currency
EM countries typically opt to issue either USD or EUR
M.M128348126.
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⇒ Yield Measures/ current or running yield 𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐩𝐨𝐧 LOS a
𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 - describe
Page 6
⇒ Bond Indenture LOS b
- trust deed ➞ legal contract form of the bond - describe
obligations of the issuer
guided by
rights of the bondholder
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⇒ Bond Indenture LOS b
2/ Sources of repayment proceeds - describe
Supranational ➞ repayment of previous loans
➞ paid-in capital from its members
tax revenues
Government ➞ Sovereign ➞ full ‘faith and credit’
print money
➞ Non-sovereign ➞ taxes
➞ project cash flows
➞ special taxes/fees specific to the
Corporate ➞ CFO funding
Securitized ➞ periodic payments of principle + interest
from securities held
3/ Asset or Collateral Backing
A/ Senior Ranking ➞ secured bond ➞ backed by assets (less risky)
➞ unsecured bond ➞ general pledge
senior
junior
Debenture - can be secured or unsecured
Page 8
⇒ Bond Indenture
LOS b
3/ Asset or Collateral Backing - describe
B/ Types of Collateral Backing
Collateral Trust Bond - backed by other financial assets (held by a
M.M128348126.
Equipment Trust Certificate - backed by specific equipment trustee)
- typically used to engineer a lease
➃ pays issues ➀
Airline Trustee Certificate
leases $
➂ buys
assets ➁
MBS - backed by a pool of mortgages
Covered bonds - backed by a segregated pool of assets
that are not transferred to a SPE
- if the assets become non-performing, must be
replaced by other assets
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Page 9
⇒ Bond Indenture LOS b
4/ Credit Enhancements - reduce the credit risk of a bond - describe
a) Internal subordination or credit tranching junior – last
overcollateralization paid
senior 2
- posting more collateral senior 1
than is needed ‘waterfall structure’
reserve accounts or reserve funds
• cash reserve fund➁ - a deposit of cash that can
be used to absorb losses
• excess spread account e.g. 8% in, 6.5% out
b) External Bank guarantee and surety bonds ➞ up to some %’age
(Bank) (Insurance Co.)
called the
Letter of credit - a credit line to ‘penal sum’
reimburse any cash flow shortfalls from
the assets backing the issue
Page 10
LOS b, c
⇒ Bond Indenture - describe
4/ Credit Enhancements - compare
b) External cash collateral account - does not rely on 3rd party
creditworthiness
M.M128348126. 5/ Covenants - legally enforceable rules
Affirmative - typically administrative in nature
- what issuers are required to do
➁
e.g./ What the issuer will do with the proceeds, promise to comply
with all laws and regulations, maintain its current line of
business, insure/maintain its assets, pay taxes
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⇒ Bond Indenture LOS b, c
5/ Covenants · Negative - describe
· Restrictions on prior claims (for unsecured bonds) - cannot use - compare
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➞ Legal/Regulatory Considerations/ LOS d
- describe
· Domestic bonds - issued in issuer’s home country in the currency
of that country (e.g. Can. Co. issues in Canada in CAD)
· Foreign bonds - issuing entity not of the target country
(e.g. U.S. Co. issues in Canada in CAD)
M.M128348126. - regulated by the market the bonds are issued in
➁
· Euro bonds - originally created to bypass legal/regulatory/tax constraints
imposed on issuers
- named after the currency in which they are denominated
e.g. Eurodollar, Euroyen
- less regulated since they are issued outside the jurisdiction of
any single country
- usually unsecured - can be issued in any currency
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➞ Legal/Regulatory Considerations/ LOS d
- global bonds ➞ bonds issued simultaneously in the Eurobond - describe
market and in at least one domestic market
- ensures sufficient demand for large bond issues
- domestic, foreign, Eurobond & global bonds are subject to different
legal, regulatory & tax requirements
- the market rate that affects a bond’s price is the currency
in which the bond is denominated ➁
⇒ Tax Considerations/
· Interest - typically taxed as ordinary income (unless tax-exempt)
· Capital gains/losses - long-term vs. short-term
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⇒ Bullet, Fully-amortizing, Partially amortizing bonds
LOS e
- describe
- most common
- almost all gov’t.
M.M128348126. & corporate bonds
➁
(N = 5, PV = -1000, FV = 0, I/Y = 6) CPT PMT ➞ 237.3964
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⇒ Bullet, Fully-amortizing, Partially amortizing bonds LOS e
- describe
N = 5, I/Y = 6, PV = -1000,
FV = 200
CPT PMT = 201.917
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⇒ Sinking fund arrangement/ LOS e
issuer trustee redeems bonds in open - describe
$
market or serial #
- also may involve redeeming some lottery
increasing %’age each year
- lowers default (i.e. credit) risk, but raises re-investment risk or
call risk (called at par but trading at a premium)
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⇒ Coupon payment structure/ LOS e
- describe
cap - maximum rate
· Floating rate notes - may have if both, called
floor - minimum rate
a collared FRN
· inverse or reverse FRN (inverse floater) - if the
reference rate ↓, coupon ↑ instead
· Step-up coupons - may be fixed or floating
- coupon increases by specified margins at specified dates
- offer bondholders some➁ protection against rising rates
· Credit-linked coupon bonds - coupon changes when bond’s credit
rating changes (↓/↑ by some margin with every ↑/↓
in credit rating)
· PIK (payment-in-kind) bonds - interest paid with more amounts
of the bond (or with common shares)
PIK toggle ➞ issuer has the option to pay coupon
in cash or in kind (or some mix)
· usually tied to a cash flow trigger
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LOS e
⇒ Coupon payment structure/ - describe
· Deferred coupon bonds (split coupon bonds) - no coupon payments
for the first few years followed by higher coupon
than otherwise
- common in project financing (delay payments until the project
M.M128348126.
is complete)
· Index-Linked bonds - coupons are linked to some index
(e.g. inflation-linked
➁ bonds tied to CPI)
with
without Inf.
Inf.
Inf.
real real real
real rate nominal nominal rate
decreases rate increases
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⇒ Coupon payment structure/ LOS e
· Index-Linked bonds - describe
· zero-coupon indexed bond ➞ inflation adjustment via principal only
e.g./ $1000 face value ➞ principal payment = $1,050
5% inflation
· interest-indexed bonds ➞ fixed nominal principal + index-linked coupon
$1000 face value, 4% semi-annual coupon, 5% inflation
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎 × . 𝟎𝟒
➞ principal = $1,000 coupon = - 4 (𝟏. 𝟎𝟓) = $𝟐𝟏
➁ 𝟐
· capital-indexed bonds ➞ fixed coupon + index-linked principal
∴ PMT ↑ as principal ↑
$1000 face value, 4% semi-annual coupon, 5% inflation
➞ principal = $1000(1.05) = $1,050 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐩𝐨𝐧 = 𝟏𝟎𝟓𝟎 × 𝟒%.𝟐 = $𝟐𝟏
· Indexed-annuity bonds ➞ fully amortizing
➞ interest + principal payments ↑ as CPI ↑
$1000 face value, 4% semi-annual coupon, 20 yr. bond, 5% inflation
(N = 40, I/Y = 2, FV = 0, PV = -1000) PMT = 36.56 ➞ new PMT = 36.56(1.05) = 38.38
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⇒ Bonds with contingency provisions/ LOS f
- describe
some future event or circumstance that is possible
but not certain
- contingency provision gives issuer or bondholder a right to some
M.M128348126.
action
1/ Callable Bonds - issuer has the right to embedded
redeem all or part of the bond before maturity ‘option’
- issuer is protected from a decline
➁ in interest rates
- can re-issue at lower rates
- call option has value to the issuer ∴ higher coupon or lower price
- detailed in the bond indenture: compensates for higher
· call price · call dates reinvestment risk
· call premium (shrinks as time passes)
· call protection period (lockout period) ⇒ cannot be called until
some future date
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⇒ Bonds with contingency provisions/ LOS f
1/ Callable bonds - describe
𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐈𝐧𝐭. + 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐩𝐚𝐥 - results in a
- make whole call ➞ PV of
𝐠𝐨𝐯 ! 𝐭. 𝐘𝐓𝐌 + 𝐬𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝 call price > current
market price
- calls can be: American - continuously callable
European - only on call date (1 date)
Bermuda - only on call
➁ dates after the lockout period
- usually on coupon dates
2/ Putable bonds - bondholder can put bond back to issuer on
certain dates @ specific prices (value for bondholder)
- lower yield or higher prices
- protects against a rise in rates
➞ one-time put bonds - European
➞ multiple put bonds - Bermuda
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⇒ Bonds with contingency provisions/
LOS f
3/ Convertible bonds - hybrid security, 5-10 yr. maturities - describe
- bondholder has the right to exchange the bond for a
specified number of shares
- if share price ↓, get bond principal (downside protection)
- if share price ↑, get share price (upside participation)
- lower yield or higher price (yield higher than dividend yield however)
M.M128348126. - issuer pays lower interest, plus may➁avoid principal repayment
· Key Terms e.g.
· Conversion Price - price/share $20
· Conversion Ratio # of shares/bond 50
· Conversion Value P0 × conv. ratio P0 = 19 , CV = 950
· Conversion Premium $Bond - Con. Value $1000 - 950 = 50
· Conversion Parity $Bond = Con. Value below par
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⇒ Bonds with contingency provisions/ LOS f
3/ Convertible bonds - describe
- typically also have call provisions to force conversations
- avoids ‘overhanging convertibles’ when above parity
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j. describe repurchase agreements (repos) and the risks associated with them
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⇒ Classification of Fixed-Income Markets/ LOS a, b
5/ by coupon – floating rate = reference rate + spread - describe
resets
typically constant
periodically
Libor – reflects the rate at set at issuance
typically Libor
which unsecured loans can f(credit risk)
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Page 3
⇒ Classification of Fixed-Income Markets/ LOS a
6/ by Geography Domestic legal, regulatory and tax - describe
Foreign issues of ‘issued-in’ country
Eurobond - issued internationally
also by developed market
local currency
emerging market
foreign currency
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⇒ Primary bond markets/ LOS c
Public Offerings a) underwritten offerings - describe
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Page 5
⇒ Primary bond markets/ LOS c
Public Offerings a) underwritten offerings - describe
Shelf registration ➞ certain issuers can offer additional bonds
to the public without having to prepare a new
and separate offering
- may be used to cover multiple bond issues
b) best-efforts offering – investment bank/syndicate serve
only as a broker for a commission
c) auction – single price auction ➞ all the winning bidders pay
the same price and receive the same coupon
rate (U.S. Treasuries)
- competitive + non-competitive bids
primary dealers accepts the rate determined
- final price = yield at which the issue clears
multiple price auction ➞ each bidder pays their price
(Canada, Germany)
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⇒ Primary bond markets/ LOS c, d
Public Offerings - describe
d) Private Placements non-underwritten
unregistered
M.M128348126.
one/few investors (pension fund, insurance)
- typically no active secondary markets low need for liquidity
higher yield
⇒ Secondary bond markets/
investor investor Central Banks & large
investor dealer investor
institutional investors
exchange-listed ➞ very limited - very small retail
OTC (over-the-counter) ➞ vast majority of bonds presence
- dealers act as market makers
post bid - offer < 5 bps – very liquid
spread ➞ lower = more liquid 10-12 – reasonable
> 50 - illiquid
- no bid/offer = completely illiquid
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⇒ Secondary bond markets/ LOS c, d
Settlement – bonds passed to buyer and payment made - describe
gov’t./quasi-gov’t. ➞ cash or T + 1
corporate ➞ T + 2 or T + 3, maybe even T + 7
(some jurisdictions)
⇒ Sovereign bonds/ LOS e
- usually called Treasuries (even though they - describe
have different names by country)
- name may also denote original maturity
e.g. U.S. Treasury - bill (T-Bill) < 1 yr. (zero coupon)
- Note (T-Note) 1 yr. ≤ T-Note < 10 yrs.
coupon –
bearing - Bond (T-bond) > 10 yrs.
Page 8
⇒ Sovereign bonds/ LOS e
Credit Quality ➞ typically unsecured obligations - describe
➞ paid out of budget surplus
➞ deficits require ‘rolling over’ the principal + interest
- risk-free (theoretically) ➞ AAA or Aaa (only a few)
M.M128348126. local currency ➞ higher credit rating than foreign currency
- strong domestic savings base ➞ solid domestic demand
- liquid and freely traded currency ➞ strong international demand
Types/ 1/ Fixed-rate bonds – by far the most common
2/ Floating-rate bonds – lower interest rate risk (i.e. price risk)
than fixed rate bonds
(Germany, Spain, US) (Japan, UK – never)
3/ Inflation-linked bonds – US ➞ TIPS (Treasury Inflation
- tied to CPI Protected Securities)
not a perfect proxy for inflation
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Page 9
⇒ Non-Sovereign/Quasi-government/Supranational/ LOS f
Non-Sovereign: state, province, municipality - describe
- not guaranteed by the national government schools
- typically issued to finance public projects roads
- ranging tax treatment depending on type & jurisdiction hospitals
Page 10
⇒ Corporate Debt/ LOS g
- companies have a choice: Debt or Equity - describe
public private
Private debt: 1/ Bi-lateral loans – single lender to single borrower
floating-rate usually bank typically
2/ Syndicated loans – a group of lenders to a single
M.M128348126.
borrower
can be packaged not all will be banks
and securitized
- private debt can be customized to the borrowers need, can be
interest only or fully amortizing, usually more expensive than public
Public debt: 1/ Commercial paper – short-term, unsecured debt
- working capital, seasonal needs, bridge financing
- largest issues are financial institutions
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⇒ Corporate Debt/ LOS g
Public debt: 1/ Commercial paper ➞ Credit quality - describe
prime paper ➞ IG
illiquidity
Page 12
⇒ Corporate Debt/ LOS g
Public debt: 1/ Commercial paper US vs. Eurocommercial - describe
Paper
issued
M.M128348126. internationally
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⇒ Corporate Debt/ LOS g
Public debt: 2/ Corporate Notes and Bonds - describe
quarterly
Coupon payment structures fixed or inflation
semi-annual
floating market
annual
credit
- also ➞ zero coupon, deferred coupon, PIK bonds quality
Principal repayment structures
- serial maturity – maturity dates are spread out over the bond’s life
- a stated # of bonds mature each year
- term maturity – principal all paid on one date (more credit risk)
Asset or collateral backing – seniority ranking, secured vs.
unsecured
Contingency provisions – calls, puts, conversions
Issuance, Trading, Settlement
underwritten OTC T + 2 or T + 3, longer for new issues
best efforts
Page 14
⇒ Structured Financial Instruments/ LOS h
1/ Capital protected instruments - describe
➞ buy a zero coupon bond + call options
equity
discount security on an index commodity
M.M128348126.
pays principal + option payoff
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⇒ Structured Financial Instruments/ LOS h
3/ Participation instruments – participate in the return of - describe
an underlying asset
- offer exposure to a particular index or asset price
4/ Leveraged instruments e.g./ inverse floater
coupon rate = C – (L × R) - if reference rate (R) = 0
leverage factor C is maxed out
e.g./ C = 9.5% 9.5% - (3 × 2.5%) = 2% R ↓ 1.5%
L = 3
9.5% - (3 × 1.0%) = 6.5% C ↑ 4.5%
Libor ➞ 2.5% ➞ 1%
- if L < 1 , called a ‘deleveraged inverse floater’
L > 1 ➞ ‘leveraged inverse floater’
Page 16
⇒ Short-term funding alternatives for banks LOS i
1/ Retail Deposits – individual and commercial depositors - describe
demand deposits ➞ pay no interest
savings accounts ➞ pay interest but lack service levels of
demand deposits
money market accounts ➞ money market rates of return
M.M128348126.
2/ Short-term wholesale funds
a) Reserve funds ➞ central bank funds
- banks place minimum level of funds with the central bank
- called reserves
- help ensure sufficient liquidity should depositors withdraw funds
- some banks have surplus reserves, others deficits
can lend extra reserves to other banks for
interest is maturities of one day up to one year
called the central bank overnight funds term funds
funds rate
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Page 17
⇒ Short-term funding alternatives for banks LOS i
2/ Short-term wholesale funds - describe
b) Interbank funds ➞ loans/deposits between banks (unsecured)
➞ term: overnight to one year
rate ➞ interbank offered rate bank will typically quote 2 rates
➞ fixed rate ① rate at which it will lend
② rate at which it will accept a
c) Large denomination negotiable CDs deposit
allows depositor to sell CD in open market
before maturity
usually issued in denominations of $1M or more (U.S.)
typically traded among institutional investors
have maturities < 1 yr., pay interest at maturity
yields are driven primarily by the credit risk of the issuing bank
Page 18
⇒ Short-term funding alternatives for banks LOS j
3/ Repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements - describe
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Page 19
⇒ Short-term funding alternatives for banks LOS j
3/ Repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements - describe
interest is paid at the end of the repo term
if the collateral pays interest, belongs to the borrower
M.M128348126.
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b. identify the relationships among a bond’s price, coupon rate, maturity, and
market discount rate (yield-to-maturity)
c. define spot rates and calculate the price of a bond using spot rates
d. describe and calculate the flat price, accrued interest, and the full price of a
bond
g. calculate and interpret yield measures for fixed-rate bonds and floating-rate
notes
i. define and compare the spot curve, yield curve on coupon bonds, par curve,
and forward curve
M.M128348126. j. define forward rates and calculate spot rates from forward rates, forward
rates from spot rates, and the price of a bond using forward rates
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Page 2
⇒ Bond Prices/ LOS a, b
a) using a single ‘market discount factor’ - calculate
- identify
- semi-annual: 5 yr., 4% semi-annual bond, r = 6%
M.M128348126.
(N = 10, 𝐈.𝐘 = 3, PMT = 2, FV = 100) CPT PV = 91.46979
(vs. 91.575 for annual)
5 yr., 8% semi-annual bond, r = 6%
(N = 10, 𝐈.𝐘 = 3, PMT = 4, FV = 100) CPT PV = 108.5302
(vs. 108.425 for annual)
- quarterly: (N = 20, 𝐈.𝐘 = 1.5, PMT = 1, FV = 100) CPT PV = 91.4156
(N = 20, 𝐈.𝐘 = 1.5, PMT = 2, FV = 100) CPT PV = 108.5843
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- if monthly
N = 48, PMT = 𝟓.𝟏𝟐, PV = -105, FV = 100
CPT 𝐈#𝐘 = .30454 × 12 = 3.6545
Page 4
⇒ Bond Prices/ LOS a, b
4 relationships 1/ PV inversely related to $𝐘𝐈 - calculate
- identify
- bond price is inversely related to the market
discount rate
2/ given the same coupon & time to maturity: (inverse effect)
%’age 𝚫price when market rates increase is less than
M.M128348126.
price
- called a ‘convexity effect’ when rates decrease
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Page 5
⇒ Bond Prices/ LOS a, b
4 relationships 4/ for the same coupon rate: - calculate
longer-term bond is more price sensitive than a - identify
(maturity effect) shorter-term
- generally bond
4.95% ↑ as r ↓ 1%
4.60% ↓ as r ↑ 1%
convexity effect
all rise all drop
coupon effect
longer term bonds = higher price vol. lower coupon = higher note: maturity effect
price vol. does not hold for low
coupon, LT-bonds @
maturity effect a discount
Page 6
⇒ Bond Prices/ LOS a, b
- calculate
- identify
M.M128348126.
pulled to par
constant yield-price
over time
trajectory
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Page 7
⇒ Bond Prices/ LOS c
b) using multiple discount rates - define
- calculate
- spot rates ➞ rates that correspond to a bond’s cash flow
dates
∴ rather than using the same discount rate, each cash flow
is discounted by its associated spot rate
yields-to-maturity on zero-
PV ➞ referred to as the bond’s
coupon bonds maturing at
‘no arbitrage value’
the date of each cash flow
e.g./ 𝟓 𝟓 𝟏𝟎𝟓
PV = + (𝟏.𝟎𝟑)𝟐 + (𝟏.𝟎𝟒)𝟑 = 102.96 3 yr., 5% annual bond
(𝟏.𝟎𝟐)
r(1) = 2% r(2) = 3% r(3) = 4%
Page 8
⇒ Prices and Yields/ LOS d
- when a bond is between coupon dates, its price has - calculate
2 parts ① the flat price - PVflat
sum = PVfull
② accrued interest - AI
dirty price
- dealers quote PV flat
(a.k.a. - the clean price)
M.M128348126. - AI ➞ the proportional share of the next coupon payment belonging
= 𝐭J𝐓 where T = # of days between PMT to the seller
𝐭 = # of days since last PMT to the settlement
date
- 2 conventions to count days:
𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥$ 𝟑𝟎.
𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝟑𝟔𝟎
- most common for gov’t. bonds - typically corporate bonds
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Page 9
⇒ Prices and Yields/ LOS d
𝐏𝐌𝐓 𝐏𝐌𝐓 𝐏𝐌𝐓 + 𝐅𝐕 - calculate
𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 = 𝐭 + 𝐭 +⋯ + 𝐭
(𝟏 + 𝐫)𝟏* -𝐓 (𝟏 + 𝐫)𝟐* -𝐓 (𝟏 + 𝐫)𝐍* -𝐓
𝐏𝐌𝐓 𝐏𝐌𝐓 𝐏𝐌𝐓 + 𝐅𝐕 𝐭
= 7 + + ⋯+ 8 × (𝟏 + 𝐫) -𝐓
(𝟏 + 𝐫) (𝟏 + 𝐫)𝟐 (𝟏 + 𝐫) 𝐍
𝐭
= 𝐏𝐕 × (𝟏 + 𝐫) -𝐓
this is not PVflat
e.g./ 5% semi, maturity date = Feb. 15, 2024, act./act., settles May 14/2015
r = 4.8% Feb. 15 Aug. 15 Feb. 15 Feb. 15 - Aug. 15
T = 181 T = 184 13 + 31 + 30 + 31
𝐭 = 𝟏𝟑 + 𝟑𝟏 + 𝟑𝟎 + 𝟏𝟒 = 𝟖𝟖 + 30 + 31 + 15 = 181
N = 18 𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 = 𝟏𝟎𝟏. 𝟒𝟒𝟕𝟗
𝐭# = 𝟖𝟖# Aug. 15 - Feb. 15
𝐓 𝟏𝟖𝟏 PMT = 2.5 𝟖𝟖
× (𝟏. 𝟎𝟐𝟒) &𝟏𝟖𝟏 16 + 30 + 31 + 30
I/Y = 2.4
𝐀𝐈 = 𝟖𝟖#𝟏𝟖𝟏 × 𝟐. 𝟓 = 𝟏𝟎𝟐. 𝟔𝟐𝟒𝟑𝟐𝟑
+ 31 + 31 + 15 = 184
FV = 100 𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭 = 𝟏𝟎𝟐. 𝟔𝟐𝟒𝟑𝟐𝟑
= 𝟏. 𝟐𝟏𝟓𝟒𝟕 CPT PV = 101.4479 - 1.21547
= 101.408853
Page 10
⇒ Prices and Yields/ LOS d
e.g./ 6% corporate semi, settles June 18/2015 - calculate
June 18
coupon dates ➞ Mar./Sept. 19 Mar. 19 Sept. 19 Mar. 19
matures ➞ Sept. 19/2026 x
M.M128348126.
r = 6.2%
Step #3. Calculate PV Sep. 19/15
Step #1. 30/360 day count N = 23 2 × (16 - 26)
T = 11 + 30 + 30 + 30 + 30 + 30 + 19 = 180 PMT = 3 11 yrs.
𝐭 = 11 + 30 + 30 + 18 = 89 FV = 100 CPT PV = 98.372607
𝐈# = 3.1
Step #2. AI 𝐘
AI = 𝐭.𝐓 × 𝐏𝐌𝐓 Step #4. Calculate PVfull
𝟖𝟗-
= 𝟖𝟗.𝟏𝟖𝟎 × 𝟑 = 𝟏. 𝟒𝟖𝟑̇ 𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 = 𝟗𝟖. 𝟑𝟕𝟐𝟔𝟎𝟕 × (𝟏. 𝟎𝟑𝟏) 𝟏𝟖𝟎
= 𝟗𝟗. 𝟖𝟔𝟖𝟖𝟎𝟓
Step #5. Calculate PVflat
𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭 = 𝟗𝟗. 𝟖𝟔𝟖𝟖𝟎𝟓 − 𝟏. 𝟒𝟖𝟑̇
= 𝟗𝟖. 𝟑𝟖𝟓𝟒𝟕𝟐
31
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 11
⇒ Prices and Yields/ LOS e
Matrix Pricing - for fixed rate bonds without an active - describe
Page 12
⇒ Prices and Yields/ LOS e
e.g./ 3 yr., 4% semi corporate - describe
2% 3% 4% 5% Coupon
98.50 102.25
2
term 3.786% 3.821% 3.8035%
to y 3
urit 3 yrs. 𝟑. 𝟖𝟎𝟑𝟓 + 𝟏.𝟑 (𝟒. 𝟏𝟖𝟖𝟓% −
mat
M.M128348126. 4 𝟑. 𝟖𝟎𝟑𝟓%)
5 90.25 99.125 = 𝟑. 𝟗𝟑𝟏𝟖𝟑 ̇
4.181% 4.196% 4.1885%
Step #5: Find PV
Note: if the bond were floating instead: (N = 6, I/Y = 𝟑. 𝟗𝟑𝟏𝟖𝟑̇2𝟐, FV = 100,
spread = 3.93183 - YTM on gov’t. 3 yr.-semi PMT = 2)
if gov’t. YTM = 2.75% CPT PV = 100.191
spread = 118.183 bps
⇒ usually a different yield spread for each maturity & credit rating
32
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 13
⇒ Yield Measures/ LOS f, g, h
1/ Fixed rate bonds - yield measures typically are - calculate
annualized and compounded (if > 1 yr.) - interpret
e.g./ 5-yr. zero @ 80 Periodicity
annual 80 = 100/(1 + r) 5
1 ➞ r = 0.04564
semi-annual 80 = 100/(1 + r)10 2 ➞ r = 0.022565 × 2 = 0.04513
quarterly 80 = 100/(1 + r)20 4 ➞ r = 0.011220 × 4 = 0.04488
monthly 80 = 100/(1 + r)60
12 ➞ r = 0.003726 × 12 = 0.044712
Page 14
⇒ Yield Measures/ LOS f, g, h
1/ Fixed rate bonds - calculate
𝐀𝐏𝐑 𝐦 𝐦 𝐀𝐏𝐑 𝐧 𝐧 - interpret
➞ periodicity conversions: 9𝟏 + = = 9𝟏 + =
𝐦 𝐧
e.g./ 3 yr., 5% semi @ 104 (BEY)
M.M128348126.
𝐈
(N = 6, PMT = 2.5, PV = -104, FV = 100) CPT #𝐘 = .01791 × 𝟐 = 𝟑. 𝟓𝟖𝟐%
(𝟏. 𝟎𝟏𝟕𝟗𝟏)𝟐 − 𝟏 = 𝟑. 𝟔𝟏𝟒𝟏
. 𝟎𝟑𝟓𝟖𝟐 𝟐 𝐀𝐏𝐑 𝟒 𝟒
quarterly equivalent C𝟏 + D = C𝟏 + D (EAY)
𝟐 𝟒
𝟏-
?(𝟏. 𝟎𝟑𝟔𝟏𝟒𝟏) 𝟒 − 𝟏F × 𝟒 = 𝟑. 𝟓𝟔𝟔%
𝟐 𝟏𝟐
monthly equivalent C𝟏 + . 𝟎𝟑𝟓𝟖𝟐D = C𝟏 + 𝐀𝐏𝐑 𝟏𝟐 D
𝟐 𝟏𝟐
𝟏
?(𝟏. 𝟎𝟑𝟔𝟏𝟒𝟏) -𝟏𝟐 − 𝟏F × 𝟏𝟐 = 𝟑. 𝟓𝟓𝟔%
33
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 15
⇒ Yield Measures/ LOS f, g, h
e.g./ 5 yr., 4.5% semi @ 98
1/ Fixed rate bonds - calculate
① annual YTM ? (N = 10, PMT = 2.25, PV = -98, FV = 100) - interpret
CPT 𝐈#𝐘 = .0247826 × 2 = 4.95652%
(semi-annual bond basis)
② convert to quarterly . 𝟎𝟒𝟗𝟓𝟔𝟓𝟐 𝟐
𝐀𝐏𝐑 𝟒 𝟒
C𝟏 + D = C𝟏 + D
𝟐 𝟒
𝟏-
?(𝟏. 𝟎𝟓𝟎𝟏𝟕𝟗) 𝟒 − 𝟏F × 𝟒 = 𝐀𝐏𝐑 𝟒 = 𝟒. 𝟗𝟐𝟔𝟏𝟖%
Page 16
⇒ Yield Measures/ LOS f, g, h
1/ Fixed rate bonds - calculate
- interpret
government equivalent yield ➞ quoted for a corporate bond
➞ restates 𝟑𝟎.𝟑𝟔𝟎 to 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥.𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥
M.M128348126.
➞ results in a more accurate ‘spread over
benchmark’ measure
current yield (income or running yield) = ∑𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐩𝐨𝐧 𝐏𝐌𝐓𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐲𝐫.
𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭
simple yield = 𝐏𝐌𝐓/𝐲𝐫. + 𝐒. 𝐋. 𝐚𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐭. 𝐨𝐟 𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧/𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐬
𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭
➞ Embedded options/ 7 yr., 8% annual @ 105, callable after 4 years
yield measures:
102 in 4 years
yield to first call (FV = 102, PV = -105, PMT = 8, N = 4)
yield to second call (FV = 101, N = 5)
101 in 5 years
yield to third call (FV = 100, N = 6) 100 in 6 years
YTM (FV = 100, N = 7) call schedule
34
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 17
⇒ Yield Measures/ LOS f, g, h
1/ Fixed rate bonds - calculate
➞ Embedded options/ - pricing involves an option pricing - interpret
model + assumption about future interest rate volatility
Option-adjusted price = Option free bond - value of call option
used to calculate the or/ (+ value of put option)
option-adjusted yield
2/ Floating rate bonds
- reference rate is usually a short-term money market
rate (i.e. Libor)
- determined at the beginning of the period, paid at the end
(in arrears)
Fixed-Coupon price
Page 18
⇒ Yield Measures/ LOS f, g, h
2/ Floating rate bonds - common day count conventions - calculate
𝐚𝐜𝐭.$ 𝐚𝐜𝐭.$ - interpret
𝟑𝟔𝟓 𝟑𝟔𝟎
yield spread over the reference rate ➞ quoted margin ➞ credit related
➞ may even be
required margin ➞ spread required by investors to
M.M128348126.
negative (sub-Libor)
reflect changes in credit quality
- changes usually come from changes in the issuer’s credit
risk
∴ FRN with quoted margin = 50 bps with no changes in
credit risk, required margin = 50bps
PMT PMT between PMT dates for a
premium
PV change in the reference
PV = 100 PV = 100
discount rate ➞ but PV pulled to
QM - quoted margin par as PMT date nears
DM - discount margin if QM = DM ➞ PV = 100 on reset date
QM > DM ➞ PV > 100 and QM < DM ➞ PV < 100
35
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 19
LOS f, g, h
⇒ Yield Measures/
- calculate
2/ Floating rate bonds - interpret
(𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐐𝐌) × 𝐅𝐕 (𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐐𝐌) × 𝐅𝐕 (𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐐𝐌) × 𝐅𝐕
+ 𝐅𝐕
𝐏𝐕 = 𝐦 + 𝐦 + ⋯+ 𝐦
𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐃𝐌 𝟐
𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐃𝐌 𝐍
^𝟏 + ` ^𝟏 + 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐃𝐌` ^𝟏 + `
𝐦 𝐦 𝐦
e.g./ 2 yr. FRN, pays 6-mos. Libor + 50 bps, required spread = 40 bps
1.25%
Index = .0125
N= 4
QM = .005
DM = .004 PMT = (𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐐𝐌) × 𝐅𝐕 = (. 𝟎𝟏𝟐𝟓 + . 𝟎𝟎𝟓) × 𝟏𝟎𝟎 = . 𝟎𝟏𝟕𝟓 = . 𝟖𝟕𝟓
𝐦 𝟐 𝟐
𝐈. = 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐃𝐌 . 𝟎𝟏𝟐𝟓 + . 𝟎𝟎𝟒 . 𝟎𝟏𝟔𝟓
𝐘 = = = . 𝟖𝟐𝟓%
𝐦 𝟐 𝟐
FV = 100
Page 20
LOS f, g, h
⇒ Yield Measures/ - calculate
2/ Floating rate bonds - interpret
e.g./ 5 yr. FRN, pays 3-mos. Libor, QM = 75 bps, PV = 95.50 (DM = ?)
1.10%
M.M128348126. N = 20, FV = 100, PV = -95.50, PMT = C𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐐𝐌D × 𝐅𝐕 = 𝟏. 𝟖𝟓% × 𝟏𝟎𝟎 = . 𝟒𝟔𝟐𝟓
𝟒 𝟒
CPT #𝐘 = .7045% ➞ (.007045 × 4) - .0110 = DM
𝐈
DM = 171.8 bps
36
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 21
⇒ Yield Measures/ LOS f, g, h
3/ Money market instruments - calculate
annualized, but not compounded ⇒ instead - interpret
rates of return are stated on a simple interest basis
either discount rates or add-on rates
(T-bills, CP, BA) (CDs, repos)
Page 22
LOS f, g, h
⇒ Yield Measures/ - calculate
3/ Money market instruments - interpret
𝐅𝐕 𝐲𝐫. 𝐅𝐕 − 𝐏𝐕
Add-on rates 𝐏𝐕 = ⇒ 𝐀𝐎𝐑 = 9 =9 =
𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬$ 𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐏𝐕
^𝟏 + 𝐲𝐫. × 𝐀𝐎𝐑`
e.g./ 180-day BA, AOR = 4.38, 365-day yr., $10M periodicity 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐞𝐝
𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐝
M.M128348126.
𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬.
𝐅𝐕 = 𝐏𝐕 R𝟏 + 𝐲𝐫. × 𝐀𝐎𝐑W
= $𝟏𝟎𝐌R𝟏 + 𝟏𝟖𝟎.𝟑𝟔𝟓 × . 𝟎𝟒𝟑𝟖W = $𝟏𝟎, 𝟐𝟏𝟔, 𝟎𝟎𝟎
= 𝟒. 𝟗𝟑𝟒%
37
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 23
⇒ Yield Measures/ LOS f, g, h
⇒ DR vs. AOR
3/ Money market instruments ⇒ 360 vs. 365 - calculate
- interpret
- convert all to AOR with 365d to compare:
e.g./ 90-day CP, DR = 5.76%, 360-day yr. vs. 90-day CD, AOR = 5.9%, 365 d/yr.
Page 24
⇒ Maturity structure of interest rates/ LOS i
yield - define
maturity structure for bonds with the
- compare
or same currency credit risk
M.M128348126.
38
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 25
⇒ Maturity structure of interest rates/ LOS i
- typically stated on - define
a semi-annual bond basis - compare
Page 26
⇒ Maturity structure of interest rates/ LOS j
Forward curve ➞ based on forward rates - define
- calculate
➞ agreed on today, received/paid in the future
➞ quoted as ‘when, what’
e.g./ 2y5y ➞ an agreement on a rate, when ➞ in 2 years
f(2,5) more common what ➞ a 5 yr. rate
M.M128348126.
39
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 27
⇒ Maturity structure of interest rates/ LOS j
- define
forward
- calculate
spot
par
par
spot
forward
Page 28
⇒ Yield Spreads/ LOS k
- compare
microeconomic - calculate
factors - interpret
in bps - issuer and the bond
itself
can affect credit risk
as well
M.M128348126.
macroeconomic
factors
- general economic growth,
business cycle, fiscal and
varies across financial markets monetary policy
➞ fixed rate bonds often use gov’t. benchmark security (usually the
most recently issued ‘on the run’ security) ⇒ G-spread
➞ floating ➞ typically an interbank rate (e.g. Libor)
40
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 29
⇒ Yield Spreads/ LOS k
US, UK, Japan ➞ spread over the benchmark for fixed - compare
rate securities is the G-spread (risk free) - calculate
- interpret
EUR ➞ benchmark is EUR interest swap rates ➞ I-spread
➞ spread over the standard swap rate in any currency
fixed Libor swap rates (risky)
- for both the G-spread & I-spread, all cash flows are discounted
at the same rate
- Z-spread ➞ a constant spread over a government spot curve (or
swap
zero volatility spread ➞ zero interest rate volatility curve)
𝐏𝐌𝐓 𝐏𝐌𝐓 𝐏𝐌𝐓 + 𝐅𝐕
𝐏𝐕 = + + ⋯+
(𝟏 + 𝐫𝟏 + 𝐳) (𝟏 + 𝐫𝟐 + 𝐳)𝟐 (𝟏 + 𝐫𝐧 + 𝐳)
Page 30
⇒ Yield Spreads/ LOS k
- compare
e.g./ 6% annual corporate, 2 yrs. to maturity @ 100.125
- calculate
2 yr., 4% annual gov’t. bond @ 100.750 - interpret
r(1) = 2.10% r(2) = 3.635%
1. G-spread: corporate bond YTM = 5.932%
M.M128348126. (N = 2, PMT = 6, FV = 100, PV = -100.125)
gov’t. bond YTM = 3.605
(N = 2, PMT = 4, FV = 100, PV = -100.175)
G-spread = 5.932% - 3.605% = 2.327% or 232.7 bps
2. Z-spread ➞ demonstrate that Z-spread = 234.22 bps
𝟔 𝟏𝟎𝟔
+ = 𝟏𝟎𝟎. 𝟏𝟐𝟓
(𝟏 + . 𝟎𝟐𝟏 + . 𝟎𝟐𝟑𝟒𝟐𝟐) (𝟏 + . 𝟎𝟑𝟔𝟑𝟓 + . 𝟎𝟐𝟑𝟒𝟐𝟐)𝟐
41
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
b. describe securitization, including the parties involved in the process and the
roles they play
i. describe collateralized debt obligations, including their cash flows and risks
j. describe characteristics and risks of covered bonds and how they differ from
other asset-backed securities
42
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Benefits of Securitization
Securitization
Page 1
Physical
Bond
asset
Investors
General Debenture
M.M128348126. claim
Auto
pool Asset-Backed
Home Investors
of Security
assets
Credit Card
Receivables
Student Loans
credit sensitive
43
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 2
buy a
Customer product Consumer Co. ⇒ originator
⇒ may also be
makes a flow through
credit criteria servicer
loan (- fee)
(underwriting standards) collecting
sells cash repossessing
loans liquidating
sell
securities Consumer Asset
Investor (ABS)
⇒ special
Trust (SPV)
interest purpose
+ cash vehicle
principal
Page 3
Seller ⇒ originator of the loans (Consumer Co.)
44
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Bonds Issued
Page 1
Page 2
45
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 3
e.g./ Bond Class Par Value
A1 $ 40M
n each would have different
io A2 30M
o nat
n d i A3 20M terms to maturity and yields
bor
su A4 10M
Sequential–pay
- each bond class receives periodic interest
- However: principal is repaid as follows:
- all principal to A1 until paid in full
- next is A2 until paid in full
etc…
Redistributes prepayment risk ⇒ Called ‘Time Trancing’
or
‘Prepayment Trancing’`
Page 4
e.g./ Bond Class Par Value
A1 $35M
A2 28M time
AAA
A3 15M
+ credit tranching
M.M128348126.
A4 12M
BB B (subordinate) 7M
C C (subordinate) 3M
$100M
46
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Versus
Originator Co.
SPV sells securities
Balance Sheet Loans ⇒ lower cost
Cash… ⇒ higher rating
47
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 2
Prepayments ⇒ amount & timing of cash flows is not known
with certainty (prepayment risk)
𝐭=0 𝐭 = 30
if repaid in full or if
lockout period
prepayment > some certain amt.
penalty period
= penalty
(usually X months interest)
Interest Rate Determination
Fixed Rate, Level Payment, Fully Amortizing
ceiling
Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs)
floor
Others: Initial Period Fixed Rate, then floating
: Teaser + Reset
: Convertible (Fixed ➞ Floating) or reverse
Page 3
Amortization Schedule
e.g. Fixed Rate, Level Payment, Fully Amortizing
⇒
48
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 4
𝒊 Principal
Interest-service fee
security holder
par value of gets net interest or
collateral net coupon
𝐭=0 30 yrs.
recourse non-recourse
all assets of the - borrowers walk away
borrower can be used
to make the lender
whole
Residential MBS
49
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 2
Not all mortgages have the same rate or time left
e.g. Mortgage Balance Weight Rate Time Left
1 $125k 22.12% 7.5% 275
2 85k 15.04% 7.2% 260
M.M128348126. 3 175k 30.97% 7% 290
4 110k 19.47% 7.8% 285
5 70k 12.39% 6.9% 270
$565k 100% 7.28% 279 months
Weighted-average coupon rate (WAC)
WAC = .2212(7.5%) + .1504(7.2%) + .3097(7%) + .1947(7.8%)
+ .1239(6.9%) = 7.28%
Weighted average maturity (WAM)
WAM = .2212(275) + .1504(260) + .3097(290) + .1947(285)
+ .1239(270) = 279 months
50
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 3
Measuring the Prepayment Rate (Speed)
- Single Monthly Mortality Rate (SMM)
𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐚𝐲𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡 𝐭
𝐒𝐌𝐌𝐭 =
𝐁𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐥𝐲 𝐛𝐚𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡 𝐭 − 𝐬𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐥𝐞𝐝
𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐩𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐚𝐲𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡 𝐭
e.g. 𝟏, 𝟖𝟒𝟏, 𝟑𝟒𝟕
Beg. Bal.33 = $358,326,766 𝐒𝐌𝐌𝟑𝟑 =
𝟑𝟓𝟖, 𝟑𝟐𝟔, 𝟕𝟔𝟔 − 𝟐𝟗𝟕, 𝟖𝟐𝟓
Sched. Prin.33 297,825
= . 𝟓𝟏𝟒𝟑%
Prepay33 1,841,347
⇒ if SMM is assumed, the
- based on historical observations
Prepay Amt.33 = SMM33 × (Beg. Bal.33
of actual activity in month 33
– Sched. Prin.33)
Page 4
Conditional Pre Payment Rate (CPR)
⇒ the annualized SMM
1 – SMM ⇒ what is
CPR = 1 – (1 - SMM)12
NOT being
1 – what is NOT being prepaid
prepaid for the year (1 – SMM)12 – for the
= what is being prepaid for year
the year
M.M128348126.
i.e. SMM = .005143 ∴ 6% of beg. yr. principal
CPR = 1 – (1 - .005143)12 will be prepaid during
the year over and
= 1 – (.994857)12
above regular principal
= .06 or 6%
payments
51
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 5
PSA Prepayment Rate referred to as 100% PSA
or 100 PSA
Public
Securities
Association
6%
𝐭=0 30
assumes CPR of .2% in month 1 + .2% each additional
month
up to 6% (30 months) ⇒ 6% thereafter
0 PSA = no prepayments
100 PSA = prepayments at the same speed as the benchmark
⇒ less than 100 = slower more than 100 = faster
Page 6
Cash Flow Construction
if 𝐭 < 30, then CPR = 6% c𝐭$𝟑𝟎d
𝐭 ≥ 30, then CPR = 6%
∴ for month 5, CPR = .06R𝟓.𝟑𝟎W = .01 or 1% annual
and CPR = 1 - (1 – SMM)12
M.M128348126. (𝟏 − 𝐒𝐌𝐌)𝟏𝟐 = 𝟏 − 𝐂𝐏𝐑
𝟏
𝟏 − 𝐒𝐌𝐌 = (𝟏 − 𝐂𝐏𝐑) -𝟏𝟐 𝟏-
𝟏 = 𝟏 − (𝟏 − . 𝟎𝟏) 𝟏𝟐
𝐒𝐌𝐌 = 𝟏 − (𝟏 − 𝐂𝐏𝐑) -𝟏𝟐
− . 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟖𝟑𝟕
for month 5, PSA = 165
Note: Applied to CPR, not SMM
CPR = .06R𝟓.𝟑𝟎W = .01
165 PSA = 1.65(.01) = .0165
𝟏& 𝟏&
𝐒𝐌𝐌𝟓 = 𝟏 − (𝟏 −. 𝟎𝟏𝟓𝟓) 𝟏𝟐 = 𝟏 − ( . 𝟗𝟖𝟑𝟓) 𝟏𝟐 = . 𝟎𝟎𝟏𝟑𝟖𝟔
52
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 7
e.g. $400M, 7.5% Pass-through, WAC of 8.125%, WAM = 357 months
Page 8
Weighted Average Life 𝐓
𝐭 × 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐩𝐚𝐥 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐝 @ 𝐭
𝐀𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐋𝐢𝐟𝐞 = Z
𝟏𝟐 × 𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐩𝐚𝐥
𝐢*𝟏
53
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 9
Pre-payment Risk
Contraction Risk Extension Risk
arises
decreasing rates from
increasing rates
54
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 2
$400M, 7.5% pass-through, WAC = 8.125%, WAM = 357 months
Page 3
Planned Amortization Class (PAC) & Support Tranches
e.g. $400M 7.5% Pass-Through, WAC = 8.125%, WAM = 357 months
- assumptions of an
Min.
upper & lower PSA Month @ 90PSA @ 300PSA Pr. PMT
1 508,169 1,075,391 508,169
M.M128348126. lower PSA – 90 2 569,843 1,279,412 569,843
3 631,377 1,482,194 631,377
initial PAC collar/bond
55
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 4
Floating-rate tranches - collateral pays a fixed rate
Solution: the CMO still gets a fixed-$ interest amount
➞ split into a floating & inverse floating portion
Page 5
Which tranche in a CMO structure is most suitable for:
1. Investor concerned about contraction risk
sequential pay ⇒ last tranche
M.M128348126. fast
3. Investor expecting rates to fall
Inverse floater
56
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 2
Internal Credit Enhancements Cont.
Reserve Funds
cash reserve funds ⇒ part of underwriting profits deposited
in a fund
excess spread accounts ⇒ WAC = 8%, service = .25%
M.M128348126. net passthrough = 7.25% 50 bps excess spread
Overcollateralization $105M ➞ SPV ➞ sells $100M
External Credit Enhancements
Financial guarantee by a third party
- typically monoline insurance co. - securities said
up to a specified amt. to be ‘wrapped’
57
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Commercial MBS
Page 1
Income pool of
producing commercial CMBS
assets mortgages
apt. buildings
non-recourse loans
office prop.
∴ credit analysis involves
malls
analysis of cash flows
industrial parks
etc…
on a long-by-loan basis
debt-to-service coverage ratio loan-to-value ratio
𝐍𝐎𝐈 𝐋𝐨𝐚𝐧
higher = better
𝐝𝐞𝐛𝐭 𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞
can be
𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐬
‘gamed’
Page 2
⇒ if DSC & LTV ratios are not sufficient for a rating,
subordination is used
⇒ rating agencies will require sequential retirement
∴ losses from defaults will be charged
against lowest priority tranche
M.M128348126.
58
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 3
Call Protection – con’t.
3) Prepayment penalty points i.e. 5 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1
⇒ if borrower wishes to prepay in Year 1, must pay 105%
2 104%
4) Yield maintenance charges etc…
a.k.a. – make whole charge ⇒ if refinanced to get lower rate,
borrower must make ‘yield’ whole
at structure level ⇒ Credit Tranching
Balloon Maturity Provisions – at end of term of loan
- borrower may not be able to - refinance
balloon risk
- lender will most likely - sell
- pay ‘extension risk’
extend the loan
59
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 2
⇒ all ALB Securities have some form of credit
enhancement
A - senior
⇒ Credit tranching B - mezzanine
C - equity (subordinate)
⇒
.75% excess
spread
𝐭=0 𝐭*
any principal payments received are retained by the trustee
and re-invested in additional receivables to maintain the size
of the pool
60
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 2
Payment Structure:
① Pass-through ⇒ principal paid to security holders on a
pro-rata basis
② Controlled Amortization ⇒ PAC structure
③ Bullet payment ⇒ entire amount of FV
61
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 2
fixed-rate
bonds SPV floating rate payments
some floating (one or more tranches)
rate bonds interest rate
swaps (fixed-for floating)
Page 3
ramp-up period – mgr. buys assets
62
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Covered Bonds
Page 1
- senior debt obligations issued by a financial institution and
backed by a segregated pool of assets
(commercial or residential mortgages)
- offer dual recourse asset pool (remains on issuer’s balance sheet)
financial institution
- one bond class per cover pool
- issuer must replace any prepaid or non-performing asset until
maturity of the covered bonds
- usually carry lower risk and lower yields than ABS
3 major redemption regimes
1/ hard bullet covered bonds - payments have to be made according
to the covered bonds original schedule
- if not paid on the Standard Maturity Date (SMD), investors
gain access to the cover pool
Page 2
3 major redemption regimes
2/ soft bullet covered bonds - pmts. must also be made according
to the covered bond’s original schedule
- if not, does not trigger default - extension period of
M.M128348126.
typically 12 months granted, creates a new
Final Maturity Date (FMD)
- if not paid then, investors gain access to the cover pool
3/ Conditional pass-through covered bonds (CPT) - pmts. must
also be made according to the original schedule
- if not, does not trigger default - covered bonds go
into pass-through mode
- cash flows and sales of assets are then
passed through to the covered bond investors as
they occur
63
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
a. calculate and interpret the sources of return from investing in a fixed-rate bond
c. explain why effective duration is the most appropriate measure of interest rate
risk for bonds with embedded options
d. define key rate duration and describe the use of key rate durations in measuring
the sensitivity of bonds to changes in the shape of the benchmark yield curve
e. explain how a bond’s maturity, coupon, and yield level affect its interest rate
risk
g. calculate and interpret the money duration of a bond and price value of a basis
point (PVBP)
i. calculate the percentage price change of a bond for a specified change in yield,
M.M128348126. given the bond’s approximate duration and convexity
j. describe how the term structure of yield volatility affects the interest rate risk of
a bond
k. describe the relationships among a bond’s holding period return, its duration,
and the investment horizon
64
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
dit Page 1
cre ① Coupon payments + principal (on scheduled dates)
risk
② Reinvestment of coupon
rest
inte
rate ③ Capital gain/loss
risk
𝟖 𝟖 𝟏𝟎𝟖
(PV) 𝟖𝟓. 𝟓𝟎𝟑𝟎𝟕𝟓 = + + ⋯+ r = 0.104
(𝟏 + 𝐫) (𝟏 + 𝐫) 𝟐 (𝟏 + 𝐫)𝟏𝟎
Page 2
YTM assumes 1) held to maturity
2) No default
M.M128348126. 3) Coupons re-invested at same rate of interest
Now assume same bond ⇒ But sold after 4-years
65
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 3
100 -
carrying value ⇒ purchase price + amortized amt.
of the bond (85.503075) of the discount
Capital gain
Capital loss OR
“ “
89.668770
“ “ premium
80 -
𝐭
-
-
5 10
Now: Assume interest rates rise 100 bps (10.40% ⇒ 11.40%)
9 yrs.
8 11.4%
-
-
.
t = 0 t = 1 t = 10 .
.
.
(85.503075) .
.
136.380195
100
𝟐𝟑𝟔. 𝟑𝟖𝟎𝟏𝟗𝟓
𝟖𝟓. 𝟓𝟎𝟑𝟎𝟕𝟓 − r = 10.7%
(𝟏 + 𝐫)𝟏𝟎
Now: Assume interest rates rise 100 bps (10.40% ⇒ 11.40%) Page 4
Sold after 4 years FV of coupons at t = 4 37.899724 (+)
PV of 6-yr. bond at t = 4 85.780408 (-)
M.M128348126.
𝟏𝟐𝟑. 𝟔𝟖𝟎𝟏𝟑𝟐
𝟖𝟓. 𝟓𝟎𝟑𝟎𝟕𝟓 = = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟗𝟔𝟕
(𝟏 + 𝐫)𝟒
89.668770 – 85.780408 = 3.888362
Capital loss
4
Now: Assume interest rates fall 100 bps (10.40% ⇒ 9.40%)
Buy-and-Hold. Sold after 4-years
r = 10.10% r = 0.1117
66
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
67
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 4
annualized
modified duration/ e.g./ (AnnModDur)
𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐃𝐮𝐫 𝟕. 𝟎𝟎𝟐𝟗
𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 = = 𝟔. 𝟑𝟒𝟑𝟐
𝟏+𝐫 𝟏. 𝟏𝟎𝟒
68
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐃𝐮𝐫 Page 5
So… if MacDur is known, 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 =
(𝟏 + 𝐫)
- if MacDur is not known, we can approximate ModDur
(𝐏𝐕0 ) − (𝐏𝐕2 ) 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐞
𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐱. 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 = =
𝟐 × 𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝 × 𝐏𝐕𝟎 𝐫𝐮𝐧
PV
Price-Yield Curve for small 𝚫yield
PV- ➞
ApproxModDur
PV0 =
AnnModDur
PVt -
ApproxMacDur
line tangent to
Price-Yield Curve = ApproxModDur
YTM
r + × (1+r)
Page 6
e.g./ 10-year, 8% annual @ 85.503075, YTM = 10.4%
(𝐏𝐕0 ) − (𝐏𝐕2 ) 𝟖𝟔. 𝟖𝟕𝟑𝟖𝟖 − 𝟖𝟒. 𝟏𝟔𝟏𝟖𝟏𝟗
𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐱𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 = =
𝟐 × 𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝 × 𝐏𝐕𝟎 𝟐 × (. 𝟎𝟎𝟐𝟓) × 𝟖𝟓. 𝟓𝟎𝟑𝟎𝟕𝟓
𝟐. 𝟕𝟏𝟐𝟎𝟔𝟐𝟑
up 25 bps down 25 bps =
. 𝟒𝟐𝟕𝟓𝟏𝟓
10 N 10
M.M128348126.
8 PMT ➞ 8 = 𝟔. 𝟑𝟒𝟑𝟕𝟕
100 FV 100 vs.
10.65 I/Y 10.15
84.161819 + PV - 86.87388 6.3432
∴ if rates ↑ 50bps
%𝚫𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 ≈ −𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐱𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 × 𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝 = −𝟔. 𝟑𝟒𝟑𝟕𝟕 × . 𝟎𝟎𝟓 = −𝟑. 𝟏𝟕%
69
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 7
Effective Duration/ (𝐏𝐕0 ) − (𝐏𝐕2 )
𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐃𝐮𝐫 =
𝟐 × 𝚫𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐯𝐞 × 𝐏𝐕𝟎
credit
decreases 𝚫credit duration
spread
or
M.M128348126.
➞
benchmark decreases 𝚫curve duration
yield
homeowner’s have a
call option
70
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
𝚫curve is
ModDur vs. EffDur
based on
6.3492 6.0046
spot curve par curve
Maturity
71
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 2
r LOS d
- define
- describe
r-
Key Rate Duration
(𝐏𝐕0 ) − (𝐏𝐕2 )
r- =
➞ 𝟐 × 𝚫𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 × 𝐏𝟎
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Maturity 𝚫yield
𝚫curve
11 maturities
𝟏𝟏
- a key rate durationi is
g=
calculated for each = EffDur
𝐢7𝟏
EffDur ∑=𝟏
maturity
Page 3
𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐃𝐮𝐫 𝟏+𝐫 𝟏 + 𝐫 + [𝐍 − (𝐂𝐜 − 𝐫)] 𝐭
(𝐃𝐦𝐚𝐜 ) = h 𝐫 − i 𝐜 × [(𝟏 + 𝐫)𝐍 − 𝟏] + 𝐫 mn − Z .𝐓[
Dmac = f(c, r, N, t)
① 𝚫𝐭 ⇒ c, r, N - constant
M.M128348126.
D D zero coupon
bond
𝟏7𝐫 Discount
(N – 1) each date Perpetuity
𝐫
➞ Premium
45° time–to
time–to
-
-
coupon
-
-
-
maturity maturity
payment
Z𝐭.𝐓 = 𝟎[
dates 𝐏𝐌𝐓 D↑
𝐏𝐌𝐓 + 𝐅𝐕
⇒ low coupon bond ⇒ higher D (𝟏 + 𝐫)
∴ more interest rate risk
⇒ low YTM = higher D
➞ larger weights
72
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Example/ Page 4
C PV YTM
A 10 yr. 58.075279
-
annual
B 20 yr. 10% 51.304203 20%
C 30 yr. 50.210636
-
⇒ +/- 1 bps
A B C
PV0 = 58.075279 PV0 = 51.304203 5.063
PVt = N = 10 PMT = 10 ➞ PVt = N = 20 PMT = 10
FV = 100 I/Y = 20.01 FV = 100 I/Y = 20.01
CPT PV = 58.047598 CPT PV = 51.277694
PV_ = N = 10 PMT = 10 PV_ = N = 20 PMT = 10
FV = 100 I/Y = 19.99 FV = 100 I/Y = 19.99
CPT PV = 58.102981 CPT PV = 51.330739
Page 5
PV
𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐃𝐮𝐫
= 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫
PV_ (𝟏 + 𝐫)
~option-pricing
model
M.M128348126.
𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐱𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫
(𝐏𝐕0 ) − (𝐏𝐕2 )
PV_ 𝟐 × 𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝 × 𝐏𝐕𝟎
PV ➞
Non-Callable Bond
𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐃𝐮𝐫
r = (𝐏𝐕0 ) − (𝐏𝐕2 )
Benchmark
𝟐 × 𝚫𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐯𝐞 × 𝐏𝐕𝟎
Yield
73
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
𝐁𝐕𝟏 𝐁𝐕 𝐁𝐕
𝐀𝐯𝐠. 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 = 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 t u + 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫
➞ t 𝟐 u + ⋯ + 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 t 𝐧 u
𝐁𝐩 𝐁𝐩 𝐁𝐩
𝐧
such that Z 𝐁𝐕𝐢 = 𝐁𝐩
𝐢*𝟏
𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐃𝐮𝐫
and 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 = where m = periodicity
𝐘𝐓𝐌
𝟏+ 𝐦
Page 2
e.g. A B C 𝐁𝐕
$25M $25M $50M 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 t 𝐢 u + ⋯ 𝐞𝐭𝐜.
𝐁𝐩
Coupon 9% 11% 8%
TTM 6 yrs. 8 yrs. 12 yrs. 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐃𝐮𝐫
YTM 9.1% 9.38% 9.62% 𝐘𝐓𝐌
𝟏+ 𝐦
MV $24,886,343 $27,243,887 $44,306,787
M.M128348126.
MacDur 4.761 5.633 7.652
74
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 3
Money Duration ⇒ measure of price change in
currency terms
Money Dur. = Ann.ModDur × PV full
per 100 of versus actual
𝚫PVfull
≈ -MoneyDur × 𝚫yield par value face value
Page 4
e.g. FV = $10M 1. Calculate money duration
coupon = 4.5%
MoneyDur. = Ann.ModDur × PVfull
PVfull = 99.65
= 𝟐. 𝟒𝟗𝟖𝟖
M.M128348126. YTM = 5.2617% o p × 𝟗𝟗. 𝟔𝟓 = 𝟐𝟒𝟐. 𝟔𝟐
𝟎. 𝟎𝟓𝟐𝟔𝟏𝟕
MacDur = 2.4988 𝟏+
𝟐
➞
2. Calculate 𝚫PVfull for 1bp ↑ in YTM
BPV = MoneyDur. × 0.0001
75
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 5
Price 𝚫PV due to duration – primary effect
𝚫PV due to convexity – secondary effect ⇒ for
large 𝚫bps
𝐏𝐕𝟎
𝟏
%𝚫𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 ≈ (−𝐀𝐧𝐧𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 ×
➞𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝) + y𝟐 𝐀𝐧𝐧. 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐭𝐲 × (𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝)𝟐 {
Page 6
e.g. 7.25% annual, YTM = 7.44% Recall: pg. 410, R54, Eq. (6)
Maturity Apr. 4/2029 𝐏𝐌𝐓 𝐏𝐌𝐓 + 𝐅𝐕 𝐭
𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 = - + ⋯+ 4 × (𝟏 + 𝐫) &𝐓
Settles Jun. 27/2014 𝟏+𝐫 (𝟏 + 𝐫)𝐧
M.M128348126. 𝐭J = 𝟖𝟑J
𝐓 𝟑𝟔𝟎
76
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 7
4. Compare est. %𝚫PVfull with actual %𝚫PVfull if YTM ⇒ 8.44%
𝟕. 𝟐𝟓 𝟏𝟎𝟕. 𝟐𝟓 𝟖𝟑
𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 = - + ⋯+ 4 × (𝟏. 𝟎𝟖𝟒𝟒) &𝟑𝟔𝟎 = 𝟗𝟏. 𝟕𝟖𝟎𝟗𝟐𝟏
(𝟏. 𝟎𝟖𝟒𝟒) (𝟏. 𝟎𝟖𝟒𝟒) 𝟏𝟓
Actual -8.1794%
Est. -8.155% 2.44 bps off
Page 8
Recall: MoneyDur. = 𝐀𝐧𝐧. 𝐃𝐮𝐫. × 𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥
𝚫𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 ≈ −𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐲 𝐃𝐮𝐫. × 𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝
Well, money convexity results in,
𝟏
𝚫𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 ≈ (−𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐲𝐃𝐮𝐫. × 𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝) + y𝟐 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐲𝐂𝐨𝐧. × (𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝)𝟐 {
first-order second-order effect
M.M128348126. effect
𝐏𝐕0 + 𝐏𝐕2 − (𝟐𝐏𝐕𝟎 )
➞ ⇐ 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐱. 𝐂𝐨𝐧. =
when bond’s cash
(𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝)𝟐 𝐏𝐕𝟎
flows do not change
𝐏𝐕0 + 𝐏𝐕2 − (𝟐𝐏𝐕𝟎 )
when bond’s cash ⇐ 𝐄𝐟𝐟. 𝐂𝐨𝐧. =
(𝚫𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐯𝐞)𝟐 𝐏𝐕𝟎
flows change
both pos.
neg. convexity
convexity callable
77
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𝚫YTM 𝟏
%𝚫𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 ≈ (−𝐀𝐧𝐧. 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 × 𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝) + \ 𝐀𝐧𝐧. 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐭𝐲 × (𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝)𝟐 _
𝟐
≈ Duration + Convexity
25 bps
impact/ basis point change
Benchmark + Spread
M.M128348126.
rate
➞
Inflation Real Rate Credit Liquidity
Duration Duration Duration Duration
78
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Empirical Duration
Page 1
➞ Analytical duration ➞ arrived at by mathematical formulas
- assume yields and spreads are uncorrelated
M.M128348126.
79
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d. compare and contrast corporate issuer credit ratings and issue credit ratings
and describe the rating agency practice of “notching”
h. evaluate the credit quality of a corporate bond issuer and a bond of that
issuer, given key financial ratios of the issuer and the industry
80
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2 1 Page 1
credit risk ➞ risk of loss from non-payment LOS a, b
- describe
1 default risk (default probability - POD) - risk of non-payment
- issuer fails to make full and timely payments of
M.M128348126.
principal + interest
($ or %)
∴ 𝐄(𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐬) = 𝐏𝐎𝐃 × 𝐋𝐆𝐃
% or $ (1 - Recovery Rate)
% of principal recovered
81
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 2
Credit-related risks:
LOS a, b
1) Spread risk ➞ spread above risk-free rate - describe
credit
2) Credit migration risk (downgrade risk)
spread
lower credit rating = wider spread = lower price illiquidity
premium
higher POD = higher 𝐄(𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐬)
𝐑𝐟
3) market liquidity risk ➞ illiquidity = wider spread
higher risk for smaller issuers whose debt trades
infrequently
LOS c
Issuer’s debt may not all have the same seniority - describe
ranking (i.e. priority of payments) - explain
Page 3
mortgage (first, second…) LOS c
Secured ➞ Senior Secured - pledge of specific property - describe
- explain
liens (first, second, etc…)
- pledge of specific assets
M.M128348126.
Unsecured ➞ Senior Unsecured - most common
(general claim ➞ Senior Subordinated
on assets after ➞ Subordinated
all senior ranks)➞ Junior Subordinated
even low ranking debt may be cheaper than issuing equity, prevents
dilution of existing shareholders, less restrictive than issuing
senior debt, and may be adequate market demand
82
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Page 4
Recovery Rates ➞ all creditors at the same level of the
LOS c
capital structure are treated as one class - describe
30 yr. - explain
i.e. senior unsecured all equal in claim
10 yr.
(pari passu - on equal footing)
3 yr.
Page 5
Rating agencies: Moody’s, S&P, Fitch
LOS d
- compare
- contrast
all public debt is rated - describe
underwriters won’t issue, and
investors won’t buy, debt that is
M.M128348126.
not rated
ratings provide comparability of the
relative credit riskiness of all
bond issuers and issues
83
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Page 6
Issuer vs. Issue Ratings:
LOS d
- compare
corporate family rating addresses an issuer’s overall - contrast
corporate credit rating creditworthiness - describe
issuer credit rating - typically applies to senior unsecured
SnP clause sub. 1 sub. 1 cash flows service this debt first
debt debt before 2 flowing to the parent
Page 7
1/ Credit ratings can change over time LOS e
upgrades/downgrades ➞ credit migration - explain
2/ Credit ratings tend to lag the market’s pricing of credit risk
M.M128348126. bond investors must anticipate changes rather than
wait for a credit rating change
HY ➞ credit rating assesses POD, but LGD may indicate other pricing
3/ Rating agencies may make mistakes (MBS, CDOs in 2007/08)
4/ Some risks are too difficult to capture in credit ratings
- environmental, social risks
LOS f
4 Cs of credit analysis/ - explain
- assessment of an issuer’s ability to pay ➞ sources, predictability
credit quality of the company and sustainability of cash flows
fundamentals of the industry
84
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Page 8
LOS f
1/ Capacity - ability to make debt payments on time - explain
begin with industry structure analysis ➞ Porter’s 5 forces model
➞ an industry is more profitable and thus has lower
credit risk when the following are in place:
i/ threat of entry ➞ higher entry barriers
ii/ power of suppliers ➞ multiple suppliers
iii) power of buyers ➞ many buyers
iv) threat of substitutes ➞ no good or cost competitive substitutes
v) rivalry among competitors ➞ few competitors, high industry growth
low barriers to exit
Industry fundamentals
i) cyclical or non-cyclical - cyclical is more economically sensitive
- more volatile revenues and cash flows
Page 9
1/ Capacity Industry fundamentals LOS f
i) cyclical ➞ inherently risker (e.g. auto, steel, cons. discret.) - explain
➞ cyclical companies should carry lower debt than non-cyclicals
Company fundamentals
a) competitive position - market share, cost structure
b) track record/operating history
c) management’s strategy and execution
85
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Page 10
LOS f
2/ Collateral - when POD rises to a sufficient level, asset - explain
values are considered
- financial statement signals ➞ mix of tangible vs. intangible
➞ Dep. vs. CAPEX
- market-based signals ➞ MVequity vs. BVequity
3/ Covenants - terms and conditions of the debt issue
- what mgmt. must do and is limited from doing
Page 11
LOS g, h
Profitability and cash flow measures/ - calculate
(operating profit) - interpret
M.M128348126.
EBITDA ➞ op. income + Dep./Amort. - evaluate
FFO ➞ NI from cont. ops. + Dep./Amort. + Deferred taxes + NCC
FCF before dividends ➞ NI + NCC - WCInv - CAPEX
FCF after dividends
Leverage measures/
Debt = interest bearing liabilities + underfunded PO (has an implied
+ operating leases interest cost)
86
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Page 12
Leverage measures/
LOS g, h
FFO/Debt ➞ higher = better ability to pay debt - calculate
(FCF after dividends)/Debt ➞ higher = better - interpret
- evaluate
Coverage measures/ - measures ability to cover interest payments
EBITDA/Interest expense
EBIT/Interest expense or payments
Page 13
LOS i
Yields and Spreads/ - describe
M.M128348126.
macro
level and
market volatility
of spreads
issuer
87
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Special considerations/
1/ Issuer liquidity - far more critical for HY
- may not have the ability to roll over debt when it comes
due
- may not be able to issue equity if a private company
2/ financial projections - forecasts under multiple scenarios
- use of stress testing
88
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Page 16
High Yield/ Special considerations LOS j
3/ Debt Structure - secured down to junior subordinated - explain
89
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Page 18
High Yield/ Special considerations LOS j
5/ Covenant analysis - explain
maintenance covenants - typical of bank credit agreements
e.g. debt/EBITDA < x times
- defaults do occur
Page 19
Sovereign Debt/ should assess:
LOS j
1) ability to pay - explain
2) willingness to pay - sovereign immunity ➞ generally cannot force
a sovereign to pay since immunity prevents them from being sued
M.M128348126.
Institutional assessment
Economic assessment - growth prospects
Fiscal soundness
Monetary policy - mandates, credibility, flexibility
90
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REVIEW
M.M128348126.
91
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Defining Elements
Review - 1
Features/ Issuer · supranational orgs.
sovereign
· government non-sov.
state
· corporate prov.
quasi
GSEs
Review - 2
Features/ coupon in one
Currency - dual currency bonds
- principal in another
- currency option bonds
- bondholder chooses currency of each
coupon PMT
M.M128348126.
Credit Enhancement
subordination (senior 85%, junior 15%)
Internal
over-collateralization
excess spread
92
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Review - 3
Bond - legally binding contract form of bond
- need Bond Indenture (a.k.a. trust deed) obligation of
- trustee - fiduciary for Bondholders issuer
- legal identity of issuer, legal form rights of
bondholders
Source of repayment proceeds/
· supranational - repayment of previous loans
· government - full faith & credit (taxes usually)
· corporate - cash flows (CFO)
· securitized - principal + interest PMTs of
securities held
Asset/Collateral Backing/
secured (bonds)
· Senior ranking
unsecured (debentures)
Review - 4
Asset/Collateral Backing/ collateral trust bond
· collateral quality equipment trust certificate
MBS/ABS
like
covered bonds securitization
Legal/Regulatory/Tax/
M.M128348126.
· Domestic - issuer, country, currency all match
· Foreign - country & currency match, issuer does not
· Eurobond - issued outside jurisdiction of any
country
93
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Review - 5
Legal/Regulatory/Tax/
Tax · Interest normal income
· Capital gain long-term - cap. gains tax rate
short-term - usually income
· Zero-coupon - all interest (implied each yr.)
at
issuanc
e Discount Bond - implied interest each yr.
only Premium Bond - implied capital loss each yr.
Review - 6
⇒ Structure of Cash Flows/
· Sinking Fund - some %’age of bond put aside each yr.
annual
· Fixed rate semi-annual · Floating rate
quarterly - reference + spread
· Step-up coupon variable (margin)
M.M128348126. - coupon increases over time
· Credit-linked coupons · may have · cap - no higher
↓↑ with credit quality · floor - no lower
· PIK bonds - payment in kind
(w/toggle) (e.g. shares) · may be inverse floater
· Deferred Coupons - no PMTs for first - if Libor ↑, coupon ↓
few years, higher PMT after
· Index-Linked Bonds
e.g. equity index/inflation
94
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Review - 7
⇒ Structure of Cash Flows/ coupon
· inflation adjustments or
principal (zeros)
⇒ Contingency Provisions/ PMT ↑ as principal increases
- embedded options (capital indexed bonds)
call risk
① Callable bond - benefits issuer, holder
reinvestment risk
(higher coupon/lower price)
· Make whole call = PV of 𝐢𝐧𝐭. + 𝐅𝐕
𝐠𝐨𝐯 ! 𝐭. 𝐘𝐓𝐌
② Putable bond - benefits holder + 𝐬𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝
· American - always callable/putable
· European - 1 call/pull date
· Bermuda - many call/put dates
Review - 8
⇒ Contingency Provisions/
③ Convertible Bonds/ into common shares (call option)
- benefits holder
e.g./ $20/sh.
conversion price = $/share
ratio = FV/conv. pr. = 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎#𝟐𝟎 = 𝟓𝟎 shares
value = Pt × ratio
if Pt < $20
premium = Bt - (Pt × ratio)
M.M128348126.
- below parity
parity Bt = (Pt × ratio)
if Pt > $20 - above
- forced conversion - if Pt > $20 for a parity
specified # of days, company calls bonds
at a lower price
④ Warrants
- not an embedded option
95
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Review - 2
Markets/
emerging
Geography developed
5 currencies
fixed 35 rates 7 time
Coupon
floating ➞ LIBOR - London Interbank Offered Rate periods
- unsecured loans between banks
M.M128348126. for up to 1 yr.
Primary Market (first time issuance)
① Public Offering - underwritten offering (firm commitment)
- buys whole issue, assumes inventory risk
issuer determines funding
- typically Investment Bank or syndicate
needs
Selects underwriter
Structures the offering marketing
announcement date end of subscription obtain ‘anchors’
period grey market (forward mkt.
gauge demand for upcoming issues)
96
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Review - 3
Pricing Day - last day to commit
Issuing Phase - sales made, money transfers
Closing Date - about 14 days later
② Best efforts Offering - investment bank acts as agent/broker
- commission only
- no risk of ownership
Issuance/ Auctions - typically Descending price auction for gov’t.
bonds
bids solicited price then ranked
quantity
e.g./ Sell $50M - each pay their bid until issue is
cuml.
.1560 12 12 sold
.1565 8 20 or/ Modified Dutch - each bidder pays
.1570 16 36 the same price at which the
.1575 18 50 all pay this
issue clears
only 14 filled price
non-competitive bids - pay the clearing
or avg. $
Review - 4
Primary Market (Con’t.) (first time issuance)
Private Placement non-underwritten one/few
unregistered buyers
M.M128348126. Secondary Market/ (already issued)
- dealer market - can act as principal/agent
(OTC)
very
- dealer acts as market maker
little retail
- exchange listed: very limited
trading
Settlement/
T +1 - gov’t./quasi gov’t. (capital market)
T +3 - corporate
same day - all money market
97
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Review - 5
Sovereign Bonds/ Treasuries Bill - money market (pure
Note < 10 yr. discount)
coupon
Bond > 10 yr. bearing
- most recently issued - on the run
- most actively traded
- unsecured - full faith and credit only
- risk-free AAA (Fitch, S&P) Aaa (Moody’s)
(local currency)
- fixed rate (most common) - some floating (country
- may be inflation-linked (Linkers) specific)
Review - 6
Supranational Bonds/ typically plain vanilla
- must act as benchmark for countries w/
non-liquid bond markets
Quasi-gov’t./ - agency bonds
- not repaid by the gov’t. but by the GSE itself
98
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Review - 7
Commercial Paper
- retired by rolling over - issuer usually maintains
backup LOC
US CP/ EuroCP/ (issued internationally)
discount basis (par) interest bearing (par + interest)
settles same day settles T + 2
Corporate Notes/ 1 yr. < short ≤ 5 yrs.
notes
5 yrs. < med. ≤ 12 yrs.
long > 12 yrs. - bonds
fixed or floating
coupons Contingency Provisions
- annual, semi, quarterly
callable
- secured, unsecured
putable
1-30 yrs. convertible
Serial maturity - portion matures
Principal each yr.
term maturity
Review - 8
Short-Term Funding/ Deposits demand
Banks Retail savings
Wholesale money market savings
(short-term)
Central Bank Funds
M.M128348126. - overnight lending/borrowing
Interbank Market
overnight funds
- banks lending to each other
term funds
+25 bps
target
central bank
funds rate
-25 bps
non-negotiable
Certificates of Deposit
negotiable
99
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Review - 9
Repurchase Agreement/
- sale of a security w/ agreement to buy back
$ repurchase
A B A B $ < value of
term security
securities $(1 + repo rate)
1 day
repo margin
- overnight repo
more - term repo
to maturity - repo to maturity (of the security)
M.M128348126.
100
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
③ for the same TTM, the lower coupon bond will be more
price volatile than a higher coupon bond
Review - 2
Spot Rates/ rather than using one r for all PMTs
(𝐙𝐧 )
- also called 𝐏𝐌𝐓 𝐏𝐌𝐓 𝐏𝐌𝐓 + 𝐅𝐕
𝐏𝐕 = + + ⋯+
zero rates (𝟏 + 𝐙𝟏 ) (𝟏 + 𝐙𝟐 )𝟐 (𝟏 + 𝐙𝐧 )𝐧
will be the period 1 period 2 period n
no-arbitrage price spot spot spot
M.M128348126. Flat, Accrued & Full Price/ pricing bonds between coupon dates
101
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Review - 3
Matrix Pricing/ for fixed rate bonds w/ no/little
secondary market (or not yet issued)
- use liquid comparables (credit quality)
e.g. 3 yr., 4%
Coupon
3% 4% 5%
2 x x - avg. YTM 2 yr.
TTM 3 X - 3 yr.
Interpolate for
4
3 yr. YTM
5 x x - avg. YTM 5 yr. - then calculate PV
Review - 4
Yield Measures/ periodicity - # of coupon payments/yr.
e.g./ 6% coupons/yr.
60 1 annual - effective annual rate
2 × 30 2 semi - semi annual bond basis yield
4 × 15 4 quarterly (bond equivalent yield)
12 × 5 12 monthly
M.M128348126.
𝐀𝐏𝐑 𝐦 𝐦 𝐀𝐏𝐑 𝐧 𝐧
9𝟏 + = = 9𝟏 + =
𝐦 𝐧
102
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Review - 5
Yield Measures/
street convention – yield measure that neglects
lower weekends/holidays
than
true yield – accounts for delays in PMTs caused by
(1-2 bps)
weekends/holidays
government equivalent yield – restates a 𝟑𝟎.𝟑𝟔𝟎 YTM to an
𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥.
𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥 YTM
Review - 6
⇒ Embedded Options/ typically require an options pricing
model (Level2)
PV = option adjusted price + value of embedded option
- call
+ put
103
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
PMT Review - 7
⇒ Floating Rate Notes/ (𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐐𝐌) × 𝐅𝐕 (𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐐𝐌) × 𝐅𝐕
PV = 𝐦 + 𝐦 + …
𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐃𝐌 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐃𝐌 𝟐
R𝟏 + W R𝟏 + W
𝐦 𝐦
(1 + r) (1 + r)2
e.g./
4-yr. quarterly, Libor + 125 bps @ 98
find DM if Libor = 2%
CPT 𝐈#𝐘 = .009478
N = 16 PV = -98 FV = 100
.009478 = 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐃𝐌
PMT = 𝟐 + 𝟏. 𝟐𝟓 = 𝟑. 𝟐𝟓. = . 𝟖𝟏𝟐𝟓 𝟒
𝟒 𝟒
DM = 0.017912 or 179 bps
⇒ Money Market Securities/
𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬.
discount basis 𝐏𝐕 = 𝐅𝐕 × R𝟏 − 𝐲𝐫. × 𝐃𝐑W
Simple interest basis
add-on basis 𝐅𝐕
𝐏𝐕 =
𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬.
DR = discount rate AOR – add-on rate R𝟏 + 𝐲𝐫. 𝐀𝐎𝐑W
Review - 8
⇒ Money Market Securities/ 𝐅𝐕
𝐏𝐕 =
𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬. 𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬#
𝐏𝐕 = 𝐅𝐕 × R𝟏 − H𝟏 + 𝐲𝐫. 𝐀𝐎𝐑I
𝐲𝐫. 𝐃𝐑W
rearrange/ 𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬#
𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐅𝐕 − 𝐏𝐕 𝐅𝐕 = 𝐏𝐕 H𝟏 + 𝐲𝐫. 𝐀𝐎𝐑I
𝐃𝐑 = .𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬 C D
𝐅𝐕
(1 + r)
hence DR is understated 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐅𝐕 − 𝐏𝐕
𝐀𝐎𝐑 = #𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬 L M
M.M128348126. 𝐏𝐕
e.g./ 90-day, 360 DCC, DR = 5.76% ⇒ AOR = 5.925%
[w/365 DCC]
⇒ Term Structures/ a) gov’t. bond spot curve ( YTM on zeros)
YTM
(one issuer, same credit Q, same currency)
upward flat inverted
all else
constant
TTM normal
104
Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Review - 9
⇒ Term Structures/
b) gov’t. bond yield curve – coupon paying
Note: short end of curve ⇒ 1 mos., 3 mos., 1 yr. …
money mkt.
c) Par Curve – obtained from the - converted to BEY
spot curve
- each maturity is priced to par
d) Forward Curve 1y1y – 1 yr. from now, one yr. rate
2y1y – 2 yrs. from now, one yr. rate
taxation Review - 10
⇒ Yield Spreads/ Benchmark + Spread liquidity
Fixed macro factors credit risk
Rate
typically some gov’t. yield (most recently issued)
G-Spread – spread above gov’t. I-Spread - spread above swap rate
corp. YTM rate
Z-Spread - spread over gov’t. spot
- gov’t. YTM rate
M.M128348126. e.g./ 6% annual corporate, 2 yrs. TTM
@ 100.125
2 yr., 4% annual gov’t. @ 100.75
1 yr. spot = 2.10% 2 yr. spot = 3.65%
TTM
Term Structure of G-spread/ corporate YTM = 5.932%
(2.327%)
Credit Spreads gov’t. YTM = 3.605
(N = 2, PMT = 4, F = 100, PV = -100.75)
𝟔 𝟏𝟎𝟔
Z-Spread = 𝟏𝟎𝟎. 𝟏𝟐𝟓 = + = 𝟐. 𝟑𝟒𝟐𝟐%
(𝟏. 𝟎𝟐𝟏 + 𝐙) 𝟏 (𝟏. 𝟎𝟑𝟔𝟓 + 𝐙)𝟐
105
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Asset-Backed Securities
AAA Review - 2
senior tranche
mortgages SPV BB $80M
$100M mezzanine tranche credit
C 15M tranching
equity tranche
losses occur from 5M
the bottom up - all principal goes to senior tranche
first, then mezzanine, then equity
M.M128348126.
equity tranche
- usually retained by originator
senior 65%
mezzanine tranche ➞ pooled with other
mezzanine 25%
mezzanine tranches
(an ABS of ABS) equity 10%
⇒ Sequential Pay ABS/
A1
- each receives interest, but all principal
senior A2 different
TTM & goes to A1, then A2, then A3
A3
A4 YTM - time tranching – redistributes prepay. risk
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Review - 3
Rating
A1
A2 time tranching
C absorbs all losses
AAA
A3 credit first
B B tranching “first piece loss”
C C
prepayment risk
credit quality of borrower important
mortgage holder
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Review - 5
agency MBS
⇒ Guarantees/ 1) federal agency
- no credit risk
2) government sponsored agencies - prepayment risk
3) private entities – non-agency MBS (credit + prepay.
risk)
conforming – size, LTV, documentation, insured
non-conforming 𝐧 w – weight
r – interest rate
- weighted average coupon rate (WAC) = Q 𝐰𝐢 𝐫𝐢
𝐓
𝐢0 on mortgage
- weighted average maturity (WAM) = Q 𝐰 𝐓 n - # of mortgages
𝐢 𝐢
T - months
⇒ Prepayment Rate (speed)
𝐢0𝟏
remaining
𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐚𝐲𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡 𝐭
𝐒𝐌𝐌𝐭 = · prepayments/month
𝐁𝐞𝐠. 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐥𝐲 𝐁𝐚𝐥. 𝐭 − 𝐬𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐥𝐞𝐝 𝐏𝐌𝐓𝐬
based on historical
𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐚𝐲𝐀𝐦𝐭.𝐭 = 𝐒𝐌𝐌𝐭 × (𝐁𝐞𝐠. 𝐁𝐚𝐥.𝐭 – 𝐒𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐝. 𝐏𝐌𝐓𝐬)
observations
Conditional Prepayment Rate: CPR = 1 – (1 – SMM)12- annualized SMM
Review - 6
0 no prepayments
PSA Prepayment Rate
100 same speed as benchmark
e.g./month 5 ➞ CPR = 1% CPR of .2%/month up to 6%
(PSA = 100) 6%, month 30 onwards
& CPR = 𝟏 − (𝟏 − 𝐒𝐌𝐌)𝟏𝟐
𝟏,
M.M128348126. SMM = 𝟏 − (𝟏 − 𝐂𝐏𝐑) 𝟏𝟐
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Review - 7
CMO/Collateralized Mortgage Obligation/
pool of Bond Class 1 time tranching
MBS Bond Class 2 different maturities
does not eliminate etc. different yields
prepayment risk
protection from
‘waterfall’
extension risk
(principal distribution)
protection from
contraction risk
Review - 8
⇒ Non-Agency Credit Risk/
external credit enhancement - Guarantee - Ins. Co.
(wrapped)
⇒ Commercial MBS (CMBS)/ income producing assets ➞ pool of
M.M128348126.
CMBS
credit analysis of cash
flows of each loan non-recourse
⇒ Auto Loan Backed Securities/ - short-term, pr. + 𝒊 + prepayments
- all have some form of credit enhancement
⇒ Credit Card Receivable Backed Securities/
- finance charges + interest + Principal
Principal
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Review - 9
Collateralized Debt Securities/
asset mgr.
selects
senior
asset
Debt mezzanine
pool
Securities
equity
0 1 yr. Principal
revolving
repayment
period
Review - 10
⇒ Call Protection/ results in CMBS trading more like a
corporate bond
1) prepayment lockout 2-5 yrs.
of prepayment amt.
4) yield maintenance charge
- make whole charge (yield) if refinanced
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Review - 2
⇒ Duration/ measures the sensitivity of the bond’s full
price to changes in r
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Last Revised: 05/10/2022
Review - 3
⇒ Duration/ 𝐰𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐞𝐝
𝐧 𝟏 × 𝐏𝐌𝐓 𝟐 × 𝐏𝐌𝐓 𝑵 × (𝐏𝐌𝐓 + 𝐅𝐕)
- + + ⋯+ 4
𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐃𝐮𝐫 = Z 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐟𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐬 (𝟏 + 𝒓) (𝟏 + 𝒓)𝟐 (𝟏 + 𝒓)𝒏
𝐏𝐕𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥
𝐢*𝟏
Review - 4
⇒ Duration/ assumes a parallel shift in yield curve
· EffDur - for a callable bond, may be called if
· credit spread decreases (credit duration)
also used for · benchmark yield decreases (curve duration)
FRNs, MBS, DBPP
· 𝚫yield is based on spot curve
M.M128348126.
· 𝚫curve is based on par curve, so…
- flatter the par curve
- shorter the bond EffDur ≈ ModDur
- closer the price is to par
⇒ Key Rate Duration/
112
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Review - 5
⇒ Key Rate Duration/ (𝐏𝐕0 ) − (𝐏𝐕2 ) - each key
𝐊𝐞𝐲𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐃𝐮𝐫 =
𝟐 × 𝚫𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 × 𝐏𝟎 rate may
have a
different 𝚫rate
11 of 𝟏𝟏
premium bond
TTM
PMT PMT
Review - 6
⇒ Properties of Duration/
D - as TTM ↑, Duration ↑
- as coupon ↓, Duration ↑ more interest
M.M128348126.
- as YTM ↓, Duration ↑ rate risk
TTM
⇒ Duration of a Bond Portfolio/
1) weighted average of time to receipt of the
aggregate cash flows (requires CF yield
– not practical)
2) weighted average on individual
bond Durations
𝐁𝟏 𝐁𝟐 𝐁𝐧
𝐀𝐯𝐠. 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 = 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫𝟏 t u + 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫𝟐 t u + ⋯ + 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐧 t u
𝐁𝐩 𝐁𝐩 𝐁𝐩
𝐧
𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐃𝐮𝐫
Z 𝐁 𝐢 = 𝐁𝐩 & 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 =
𝐢*𝟏 𝟏 + 𝐘𝐓𝐌J𝐦
113
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Review - 7
⇒ Money Duration/ MoneyDur. = Ann.ModDur × PVfull
𝚫PVfull = -MoneyDur. × 𝚫yield
Review - 8
⇒ Money Convexity/
𝟏
%𝚫𝐏𝐕𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 ≈ (−𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐲𝐃𝐮𝐫. × 𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝) + - 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐲𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐱. × (𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝)𝟐 4
𝟐
first order second order
effect effect
⇒ Duration GAP/
M.M128348126. (MacDur. – Investment Horizon)
< 0 - coupon reinvestment risk dominates market price risk
- risk is to lower rates
> 0 - market price risk dominates coupon reinvestment risk
- risk is to higher rates
25 bps -
TTM
114
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Credit Analysis
Review - 1
Default Risk E(loss) = P(default)
⇒ Credit Risk
loss severity ×
(1 - Recovery Rate)
- spread credit quality
liquidity = x%
+ size of debt
benchmark default (credit migration risk) i.e. downgrades
senior unsecured
unsecured senior subordinated all rank
subordinated ‘pari passu’
junior subordinated
Review - 2
high quality AAA to AA-
⇒ Ratings/ · investment grade
upper medium A+ to A-
(default premium & low medium BBB+ to BBB-
M.M128348126.
liquidity premium small)
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estimates of MV of assets
③ Covenants/ affirmative
negative
④ Character/ mgmt. track record, soundness of strategy
spread + benchmark
affected by/ · credit cycle
· economic conditions
· market performance
· supply and demand
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Review - 5
⇒ Special Considerations in Credit Analysis/
1) High Yield – more interested in loss severity
(1 - Recovery Rate)
- greater focus on liquidity
- ‘top-heavy’ cap. structure loss given
= high % of debt as secured default
parent - debt
structural
debt
sub sub sub subordination restricted
Hold Co.
res. unres. vs.
debt debt debt res.
sub sub sub unrestricted
debt debt debt subsidiaries
restricted by
debt agreement at Hold Co. level
- covenant analysis
· restricted PMTs to shareholders, restrictions
on liens, etc…
Review - 6
⇒ Special Considerations in Credit Analysis/
2) Sovereign Debt - ability to pay
- willingness to pay (sovereign
immunity – investors can’t force PMT)
M.M128348126.
3) Municipal Debt · general obligation bonds
- unsecured
- municipalities must balance their
budgets
· revenue bonds (installment debentures)
- for specific projects
117