Report Draft-SSAP Arunachal Pradesh
Report Draft-SSAP Arunachal Pradesh
Report Draft-SSAP Arunachal Pradesh
Supported by
Declaration:
All data used in this work is secondary data source of central and state government agency.
All right is reserved to TERI school of advanced studies and Ms Himani Singh, Ph.D Scholar,
TERISAS for her PhD contribution in this report related to climate change model and
hydrological modelling and analysis.
Plot No. 10, Vasant Kunj Institutional Area, Tel. +91 11 2612 2222
New Delhi, Delhi 110070 E-mail [email protected]
India Fax. +91 11 26122874
Web http://www.terisas.ac.in/
India +91 • Delhi (0)11-71800222
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 BACKGROUND 1
1.2 THE SCOPE OF THE STUDY 2
1.3 NATIONAL ACTION PLAN ON CLIMATE CHANGE (NAPCC) 2
1.4 NATIONAL WATER MISSION (NWM) 3
1.5 STATE SPECIFIC ACTION PLAN FOR CLIMATE CHANGE (SAPCC) 3
i
3.2.5 Silt and WQ collection network status 26
3.2.6 Frequency of measurement 27
3.3 FINANCIAL CHALLENGES 27
3.4 CLIMATE CHANGE 28
3.4.1 Impact on Water resources 30
3.4.2 Impact on Forest 30
3.4.3 Impact on Agriculture and Horticulture 31
3.4.4 Disaster 31
3.5 WATER OPPORTUNITIES 33
3.5.1 Irrigation created and utilised 33
3.5.2 Groundwater opportunities 34
3.5.3 Water Resource Management 34
4 WATER RESOURCES 48
ii
7 CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE 96
iii
List of Tables
Table 2-5 Areal statistics of different type of texture in the soil ............................................. 13
Table 2-6: Aquifer type / Geological formation and their Ground water potential in the
Arunachal Pradesh ................................................................................................................... 16
Table 3-1 Net Sown Area (NSA) and Net Irrigated Area (NIA) (in ha) ................................. 35
Table 3-2 Total surface water supplied (in MCM) for irrigation purposes ............................. 36
Table 3-4 Summary of Information collected though state and central document .................. 37
Table 3-5 Climate and Infrastructure based research grant and financial support from State
and central ................................................................................................................................ 41
iv
Table 4-11 District wise categorization of water level fluctuation 10 years mean .................. 60
v
Table 7-1 Change of runoff in Catchment due to land practices and climate change ............. 98
Table 7-2 Change of runoff in districts due to land practices and climate change .................. 99
Table 7-3 Water balance difference due to Land practices in the catchments ....................... 100
Table 7-4 Water balance difference due to Land practices in the districts ............................ 101
Table 7-5 Water balance difference due to Climate Change in the catchments .................... 104
Table 7-6 Water balance difference due to Climate Change in the districts ......................... 105
Table 7-7 Resources and Water balances of each catchments ............................................... 108
Table 7-8 Resources and Water balances of each districts .................................................... 109
Table 8-1 Interventions and Impact for Supply and Demand sectors .................................... 114
vi
List of Figures
Figure 4-3: Change in Total Water availability due land practices at catchment level ........... 51
vii
Figure 5-8: Benchmarking of Institutional sectors .................................................................. 87
Figure 6-3: Differences between existing potential and current demand (in MCM) ............... 90
Figure 6-5: Future potential to be created in various sectors (in MCM) ................................. 93
Figure 7-1: Temperature Difference (in °C) and Precipitation differences (in%) from baseline
(1996-2005) to future simulations (2020-2029) ...................................................................... 96
Figure 7-2: Future Precipitation differences (in %) from baseline (1996-2005) ..................... 97
Figure 7-3: Future Temperature increase (in °C) baseline (1996-2005) ................................. 97
Figure 7-4: Precipitation and water yield during 2012 and 2030 .......................................... 102
Figure 7-5: ET and Snow melt during 2012 and 2030........................................................... 103
Figure 7-6: Resources and water balance benchmark of each catchment from the state ...... 106
Figure 7-7: Resources and water balance benchmark of each district from the state ............ 107
viii
Introduction
1 Introduction
In terms of utilization of water for State’s agriculture, the Agriculture Policy 2001 provides
rapid expansion of area under agriculture through the innovative use of technology, expand
irrigation facilities and build supporting infrastructure. State is keen to use its natural
resources, water, and land for overall economic development. Creation and maintenance of
necessary developmental infrastructure would necessitate strong policy interventions backed
by operational plans, importantly, including efficient management and sustainable utilization
of State’s water resources. Expansion of irrigation accessibility for increased agriculture
acreage and productivity; State’s remoteness, and lack of communication (road)
infrastructure will be the biggest barrier for such large-scale development.
1.1 Background
Himalayan ecosystems are amongst the most fragile environments on the earth and are
characterized by a high degree of remoteness, fragility, marginalization and low accessibility
(ICIMOD, 2010). Sustainability of the Himalayan ecosystem is crucial for the livelihood of
about 1.3 billion people in Asia. The perennial river system of north and north-east of India
depends upon the sustainability of glaciers and the ecosystem of the Himalayan region.
With the increasing demand of growth and development, people living in the Himalayan
states are seeking access to various developmental choices but at the same time, it is
important to structure our developmental paths which are aligned and consistent with the
sustainability of the existing ecosystem. Moreover, the state is not only climate sensitive, but
it is characterized by its geological phenomena and hazards of natural disasters like landslides
and earthquakes.
The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has
1
Introduction
In the above context, the need to define problems related to all the aspects of water resources
specific to the State arises. Also, identifying probable solutions and evaluation of alternatives
covering the impact of climate change, cost-benefit analysis, technological gaps, and policy
framework including legal and institutional linkages for optimization of water resource
utilization and conservation holds utmost importance. The present study aims to assess and
evaluate the impact of climate change on water availability of both surface and groundwater
resources at the sub-basin level to provide technological options for sustainable water
resources planning and management.
Climate change is one of the most critical global challenges of our times. Recent events have
emphatically demonstrated our growing vulnerability to climate change. Climate change
impacts will range from affecting agriculture – further endangering food security – to sea-
level rise and the accelerated erosion of coastal zones, increasing intensity of natural
disasters, species extinction, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. India’s National Action
Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) launched on June 30, 2008, outlines its strategy to meet
the challenge of Climate Change. NAPCC is guided by the principles of Sustainable
Development (SD) and aligns the environmental and economic objectives. It outlines a
national strategy that aims to enable the country to adapt to climate change and enhances the
ecological sustainability of India’s development path. It stresses that maintaining a high
growth rate is essential for increasing living standards of majority of people of India and
reducing their vulnerability of the impacts of climate change. Eight “National Missions”
which form the core of the National action plan are: National Solar Mission, National
2
Introduction
The main objective of the National Water Mission (NWM) is “conservation of water,
minimizing wastage and ensuring its more equitable distribution both across and within
States through integrated water resources development and management”. The five identified
goals of the Mission are: (a) comprehensive water database in public domain and assessment
of impact of climate change on water resource; (b) promotion of citizen and state action for
water conservation, augmentation, and preservation; (c) focused attention to vulnerable areas
including over-exploited areas; (d) increasing water use efficiency by 20%, and (e) promotion
of basin level integrated water resources management.
Various strategies for achieving the goals have been identified which lead to integrated
planning for sustainable development and efficient management with the active participation
of the stakeholders after identifying and evaluating the development scenario and
management practices towards better acceptability based on assessment of the impacts of
climate change on water resources based on reliable data and information.
In August 2009, the Government of India directed all state governments and union territories
to prepare State Action Plans on Climate Change (SAPCC), consistent with the strategy
outlined in the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). Broadly the State level
action plans are envisioned to be an extension of the NAPCC at various levels of governance,
aligned with the eight National Missions. Building on such a need, a National Consultation
Workshop was held on 19th August 2010 in New Delhi for discussing the common
framework/approach for preparing State-level action plans on climate change. During the
workshop, it was suggested that States can take their lead from the Mission documents while
formulating mitigation/adaptation strategies under the State level strategy and Action plan
(SAPCC). It was recommended that all state governments finalize their SAPCC by 31st
March 2011. Delhi and Orissa became the first two states in the country to complete and
3
Introduction
launch their State Action Plans. Although all State governments are implementing climate-
friendly strategies (broadly aligned with the missions) as a part of their development
programmes, some states have taken specific leads in the matter.
4
About State: A water perspective
The erstwhile North Eastern Frontier Agency (NEFA), became Union Territory of Arunachal
Pradesh on 20-01-1972 under the provisions of North-Eastern Areas (Reorganisation) Act
1971 (81 of 1971) and attained statehood on 20th February 1987. Arunachal Pradesh is
situated in North Eastern Part of India stretching between longitude 91°30’E to 97°30’E and
Latitude 26°30’N and 29°31’N. It spreads over an area of 83,743 Sq.km touching the
international boundaries with Bhutan (160 Km) in the west, China (1080 Km) in the north,
Myanmar (440 Km) in the south-east and the plains of Assam to the south. It borders the
states of Assam in the south and Nagaland to the east and southeast. At present, it has 18
districts with a population of 13, 83,727 of which 7, 13,902 males and 6, 69, 815 female and
a literacy rate of 65.38% as per Census of India 2011.
There are over 27 major tribes and many sub-tribes inhabiting the State. Though, most
communities are ethnically similar, having descended from an original common stock. But
their geographical isolation from each other has brought amongst tribe’s certain distinctive
characteristics in language and customs. Nature has also provided the people with a deep
sense of beauty which finds delightful expression in their songs, dances, crafts, and festivals.
The climate of Arunachal Pradesh varies from hot and humid to heavy rainfall in the Shivalik
5
About State: A water perspective
range. It became progressively cold as one moves northward higher altitudes. Trees of great
size, plentiful climbers, and abundance of cane and bamboo make Arunachal evergreen. The
richness of flora and fauna that occur in these forests presents a panorama of biological
diversity with over 5000 plant species, about 85 terrestrial mammals, over 500 birds and
many butterflies, insects, and reptiles. Arunachal Pradesh is also considered to be a treasure
home to orchids, known for their exquisitely beautiful blooms, with more than six hundred
species occurring in varying elevations and climatic conditions throughout the state.
2.2 Climate
The climate of the state is influenced greatly by the Himalayan mountains and large
variations in altitude across the state. At a very high elevation in the Greater Himalayas close
to the Tibetan border experience alpine and tundra climates. Middle Himalayas prevails
temperate climate and areas at the sub-Himalayan (lower Himalaya) belt generally experience
humid sub-tropical climate with hot summers and mild winters. The rainfall of Arunachal
Pradesh is amongst the heaviest in the country receiving more than 3500 mm in a year. The
state receives rainfall over a period of 8 to 9 months excepting the drier days in winter,
however, most of the rainfall is between May and September. Higher altitude experiences
snowfall during winter. The average annual rainfall is 1000 mm in the higher elevations and
5750 mm in the foothills to the north of Brahmaputra River. Winter months have average
temperatures in the range 15ºC to 21ºC, and the monsoon month temperatures are in the
range of 22ºC – 33ºC, and the summer months temperatures sometimes are higher well over
37ºC. The foothills experience maximum temperatures around 40ºC during summer.
2.3 Physiography
Physiography of the state has several deep valleys rising to steep mountains mostly covered
by the Eastern Himalayas. The northeastern region of India presents a unique mosaic of
landforms with great diversity reflecting a complex geotectonic setup. The major domains of
this area are the rugged hills of the high Himalaya characterized by glaciers, glacial valley,
and moraines; the low Himalayan foothills; the valley of Brahmaputra and its tributaries. The
area under different landforms in Arunachal Pradesh is categorized (table 1).
6
About State: A water perspective
The Hilly area covering 76.6% of the total geographical area of the state is under the category
of either structure hills or denudational hills or residuals hills followed by snow cover area
which covers 14.56% of the total geographical area of the state. This explains that
geomorphologically the state having a low potential of groundwater development and
catchment/basin of these areas have a high rate of runoff. The three basic landforms namely
denudational, depositional and structural are characterized by structural hills of the upper
catchment, the piedmont zone, and the vast Brahmaputra alluvial plain. The major river in the
state is the Brahmaputra. Other rivers are Changlang, Dibang, Kameng, Lohit, Subansiri,
Papum pare, Tawang, Tirap, and Siang.
7
About State: A water perspective
Arunachal Pradesh is administratively divided into 16 districts, 188 circles, covering 5258
villages. According to Census 2001, Arunachal Pradesh has the lowest population density (17
per sq. km) in India. The decadal growth rate (Figure 2-1) of the state is 25.92 % (against
21.54% for the country) and the population of the state continues to grow at a much faster
rate than the national rate.
1800000 40.0
1600000 35.0
Rate of Change (in%)
1400000 30.0
1200000
Population
25.0
1000000
20.0
800000
600000 15.0
400000 10.0
200000 5.0
0 0.0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021
Years
8
About State: A water perspective
The figure 2.1 depicts an increase in population over years from 1961 to now and projected to
the year 2021. The change is the population in consecutive years is also plotted and shows a
decreasing rate of growth in population from 2011 to 2021.
Arunachal Pradesh is predominantly an agrarian economy. Most of the state is covered with
dense and rich forest. About 54.6% of the population is engaged in agriculture and allied
activities and 80% of the population living in the rural area is dependent on agriculture and
about 62 % of total working populations are engaged in agriculture. Forest-products are the
lifeline in the State and provide income and employment to many people. Food grains
cultivation includes; rice, maize, millet, wheat, pulses, sugarcane, ginger and oilseeds.
Arunachal is also ideal for horticulture and fruit orchards. Major industries of sawmills and
plywood, rice mills, fruit preservation units and handloom handicrafts contribute their share
to the economy of the state. There are many small-scale and handloom industries in
Arunachal Pradesh strengthening the economy of the state. Cane and bamboo work, weaving,
mat making are some indigenous employments in Arunachal Pradesh.
Agriculture is the main occupation for Arunachal Pradesh. Jhum/shifting cultivation and
terrace farming/wetland rice cultivation are the two major patterns that farmers employ.
About 53% of the total cultivated area is under Jhum and the rest under permanent
cultivation.
Topography and climate of Arunachal Pradesh are conducive for the cultivation of rice,
millets, wheat, maize, pulses, sugarcane and potatoes. Horticulture is an important sector in
Arunachal Pradesh having tremendous potential for rural livelihood. Due to the existence of
varied agro-climatic zone and high adaptability to hilly topography of the state; spices,
aromatic and medical plants, flowers, and mushroom are highly cultivated in Arunachal
Pradesh. Apple, mandarin, pineapple, ginger, large cardamom, besides off-season vegetables
have a big opportunity in the domestic markets. Kiwi, though grown in a small area, has good
potential to scale it up to the commercial level. Various steps were taken to diversify the
agriculture economy by encouraging the cultivation of cash crops like potatoes, and
horticulture crops like apple, oranges, guavas, and pineapples, etc.
9
About State: A water perspective
Forest is the most important resource in Arunachal Pradesh with the predominantly large
tribal population living in close association with forests and highly dependent on it.
Traditional shifting cultivation also known as Jhum cultivation is practiced by the people and
has devastating effects on the ecology of the region thereby degrading the local environment.
Arunachal Pradesh in the Eastern Himalaya is among the 200 globally important Ecoregions.
The important forest types found in the state are tropical evergreen, semi-evergreen forests,
deciduous forests, pine forests, temperate forests and alpine forests. In the degraded forests,
bamboos and other grasses are of common occurrence. The total geographical coverage of
forest area is 73.13% in 2012.
2.6.2 Biodiversity
Arunachal Pradesh, by its geographical position, climate conditions and altitudinal variations,
is a biodiversity-rich region in northeast India, with large tracts of tropical wet evergreen,
subtropical, temperate and alpine forests. It possesses India’s second highest level of genetic
resources. Although occupying only 2.5% of India’s geographical area, the state occupies a
significant place in terms of floral and faunal biodiversity, being considered one of the
world’s 18 biodiversity hotspots and home to 85 species of terrestrial mammals, 760 species
of birds, 4,500 species of angiosperms and 550 species of orchids. It has been recognized by
International World Conservation Union in 1995 as one of the major centers of plant
10
About State: A water perspective
diversity.
11
Change (in %)
0.0
100.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Anjaw
Changlang
Dibang Valley
East Kameng
East Siang
Kurung
Kumey
Lohit
Lower Dibang
Valley
Lower
Subansiri
Papum Pare
Upper Siang
Upper
Subansiri
West Kameng
2005 2012
West Siang
About State: A water perspective
12
About State: A water perspective
2.6.3 Glaciers
Arunachal Pradesh has the lowest concentration of glaciers in India. Glaciers are found in the
Kameng Basin (52 glaciers covering an area of 66 km2), Subansiri Basin (91 glaciers
covering an area of 146 km2) and Dibang Basin (14 glaciers covering an area of 11 km2). The
snow melting contribution in the basin is a major source of water resources in most of the
river systems. The contribution of snowmelt in the basin is higher in the upper catchments
followed by lower catchments. This rate of snowmelt is affected by local land use practices
and climate change.
2.6.4 Soil
A good understanding of soils with reference to their nature and distribution is essential to
formulate any land-based production system. The soil is a major element in the natural
environment linking climate and vegetation. Soil is known for its unique behaviour under
irrigated and non-irrigated conditions and therefore soil surveys are undertaken to plan
optimum management systems for the sustainable development of the region. Detailed soil
mapping is an important aspect in establishing management guidelines on land capability/
irrigability classification and soil suitability for agriculture under rainfed as well as irrigated
conditions. National Bureau of Soil Survey & Land Use Planning (NBSS & LUP) map is
prepared on 1:250,000 scale and is incorporated with satellite data to provide vital
information for soil resource of Arunachal Pradesh.
13
About State: A water perspective
that most of the area has the potential to store the surface run-off in the region. The drainage
condition and the distribution of soil texture map shown in Figure:
Arunachal Pradesh has a vast reserve of mineral oils and gas. This state has also coal
reserves. Coal is explored from Namchik-Namphuk mines in Tirap district. Besides coal oil
and gas there is a huge reserve of dolomite, limestone, graphite, marble, lead and zinc etc. It
is also assumed that there is the reserve of iron and copper. The main mineral-rich districts
are Lohit, Tirap, Chanlang, West Kameng, Upper Subansiri, Dibangghati etc.
Brahmaputra is one of the major rivers of Asia and 41.88 % of its basin is shared by
Arunachal Pradesh. The state has the highest average run-off of 350 BCM. About 80% of the
mean annual flow of River Brahmaputra is contributed by more than 3,000 small and big
river tributaries. Within Arunachal Pradesh, there are 19 major river catchments consisting of
14
About State: A water perspective
46 major and medium type rivers. The 10 major basins are: Tawang, Kameng, Dikrong,
Subansiri, Siang, Sisiri, Dibang, Lohit, Tirap-Dehing and Tissa river basins. Numerous rivers
originating from these basins ultimately drain to Brahmaputra river. This is a boon for the
State for development of agriculture, power and industry sectors but at the same time, these
rivers have the destructive potentials unless certain preventive and protective measures are
taken up in the State. Rivers of Arunachal Pradesh could be broadly classified into three types
namely (i) Hilly reach (incised rivers), (ii) Foothill sub-montane reach (boulder rivers) and
(iii) Floodplain (alluvial rivers).
Arunachal Pradesh has 2.56 BCM annual replenishable ground water resources and net
annual groundwater availability of 2.30 BCM. The groundwater potential exploited so far is
negligible. With the depletion of surface water resources in the foothill areas of Arunachal
Pradesh, especially Changlang, Lohit, Lower Dibang Valley, East Siang, Papum Pare and
East Kameng districts, the need to exploit groundwater potential for meeting the requirements
of drinking water and irrigation is increasing day by day. The CGWB had assessed an
irrigational potential about 18,000 hectares through groundwater in the State. An area of
more than 87,500 hectares has been irrigated in Arunachal Pradesh. Based on rock type it is
found that about 15.4% of the area is covered with Biotite Granite Gneiss & Biotite
15
About State: A water perspective
Tourmaline Gneiss. The next predominant underlying rock type is Sillimanite Bearing Schists
and Gneisses & Migmatites covering 9.7% followed by Metavolcanics, Limestone, Dolomite,
Marble & Phyllite (6.9%). These rocks are basically Palaeo Proterozoic age and have less or
negligible importance for any groundwater development, these are basically runoff zone and
carrying less groundwater drawdown. Diverse geological formation, lithological variations,
tectonic complexity, geomorphological and hydro-meteorological dissimilarities exist in the
state and which result in various groundwater situations.
Table 2-6: Aquifer type / Geological formation and their Ground water potential in the
Arunachal Pradesh
Formation Lithology Groundwater potential
Unconsolidated Sand, clay, silt, gravel, pebble, Moderate yield, 30-50m3/hr. Drawdown
cobble, and boulder within 10-15m.
Semi consolidated Shale, siltstone, sandstone, Low yield, up to 20 m3/hr. Drawdown
interbedded with coal seams and within 25m.
limestone
Consolidated
Fissured formation Phyllites, schist, slates, quartzites Low yield 5 to 15 m3/hr.
Meta sediments Gnessic complex with acid and Yield up to 5 m3/hr
basic intrusive
The entire foothill belt running along the Himalayan front can be correlated to the “Bhabar
belt” of Ganga basin with exception of some areas of Lohit and Tirap districts. Groundwater
occurs under unconfined to semi-confined conditions. In Namsai and Mino sub-divisions, the
depth to water levels is essentially governed by topography. Sediments down to 106 meters
below ground level (bgl) are predominantly sandy and discharge of tube wells ranges up to
160 m3/hr. Open wells in Namsai and Mino sub-division tap 3 to 5 m of saturated sand and
yield up to 100 m3/day.
16
About State: A water perspective
The thematic maps of geology and landforms have been generated on 1: 50,000 scale using satellite
data and other collateral information and put as a standardized database. The geology and
geomorphology map are integrated together to prepare a hydrogeological map which is superimposed
by geological structures to identify the different level of groundwater potential in the state. With the
help of the information drawn from a survey of India toposheet and by visual interpretation of satellite
imagery different thematic maps such as geomorphology and lineaments, drainage and land use/land
cover are prepared. These thematic maps have been superimposed and finally, a groundwater potential
zone map is delineated on a survey of India toposheet.
17
About State: A water perspective
The previous resource information like geology, geomorphology and soil clearly indicate that the
potential for groundwater irrigation in the state is limited. Only 3.7% of the total geographical area of
the state identified for very good potential sites under groundwater resources (table 2.11). Sustained
development and efficient management of groundwater resource are essential to meet acute water
scarcity especially drinking water problem in different parts of the state.
18
About State: A water perspective
19
About State: A water perspective
The land use in Arunachal Pradesh is largely influenced by customary laws and tradition,
wherein a clan or an extended family owns vast territories which includes forest areas, hills
and slopes etc. The community extends user rights to the entire community, however,
ownership rights are vested and tightly controlled. The land use and land cover of Arunachal
Pradesh include forest areas, areas under agriculture and human settlements, snow-covered
areas, lakes and water bodies, large sand bodies along the wide river channels, mountain
slopes under shifting/jhum cultivation, and areas affected by old and active landslides.
A change assessment of different land use classes has been made from the year 2005 to the
year 2012. There has been an increase of more than 50% in settled cultivation which accounts
for total 2.71% increase at the state level. A decrease of 86.4% in Current shifting cultivation
shows controlled practices of agriculture. Abandoned shifting cultivation also reflects more
than 4.5 times decrease due to land reclamations. This indicates that the future water demand
in the agriculture sector has increased. The dense forest shows a decrease of 8% of the total
geographical area and has been converted into open forest, which seems to be a major
challenge in terms of water resources for the state. The degraded and scrub forest has also
decreased by 100%. There is a slight decrease in glacier and snow cover that may influence
the water resources of the state.
20
About State: A water perspective
21
About State: A water perspective
22
Water Challenges and Opportunities
Physical challenges can be caused by rough topography or other existing physical barriers to
manage and exploit the water resources. Following listed are the major physical water
resources challenges in the state:
3.1.2 Siltation
Foothill areas of Arunachal Pradesh are mostly the floodplains of major rivers originating
from mountainous regions. The hilly rivers flowing down with high energy dissipates its
energy in the foothill region. After dissipation of its energy, the heavy silt carried by the
rivers are deposited on its bed causing braiding and spreading overland. This is a common
problem at Seijosa in East Kameng, Likhabali in West Siang, Pasighat in East Siang, Roing
in Lower Dibang Valley, Tezu & Namsai in Lohit District, Diyun in Changlang District etc.
The heavy silt-laden rivers coming down from steep slopes dissipate its energy at the
floodplains (mostly foothill area of the State) and deposit silt on its beds due to which river
water and excess silt spread overland causing braiding of rivers and submergence of
agricultural land, towns and other public assets. In fact, this has interstate ramification and
govt. of Assam with the govt. of India should also focus its attention on the catchment
treatment mostly within Arunachal Pradesh.
23
Water Challenges and Opportunities
Landslide is a common phenomenon in Arunachal Pradesh. Every year reports have been
received from the districts regarding road blockages, mudslides in dwelling area, damages to
irrigation structures and other public assets
Due to high seismicity and geological fragility of Himalayan geology and high annual
rainfall, the state is highly vulnerable to water-related disasters.
Technical challenges refer to development and infrastructure related gaps. The excessive flow
of the Brahmaputra and Barak rivers and their tributaries during the annual monsoon causes
floods, erosion, and drainage problems that continue to afflict the Northeast. In addition, the
adverse physiography of the region, excessive sedimentation, frequent earthquakes,
landslides, deforestation and watershed degradation, and encroachment of the riverine areas;
all pose unusual challenges to the development of water infrastructure in the region. The
problems of the Barak valley, with its high elevation, large areas subject to inundation and
drainage congestion, and the prolonged high-water regime, are particularly complex.
The undulating topography does not offer much scope for taking up major and
medium irrigation projects. The irrigable command areas are limited to small patches
of about 10 to 15 hectares in the river valleys and plateaus, because they do not meet
the eligibility criteria under the AIBP programme, GoI.
High rainfall and landslide related damages on the completed irrigation projects
render the completed projects defunct. Due to this problem many completed projects,
are not yielding benefits as additional maintenance works are required to make these
projects operational.
WRD has been facing financial constraints for implementation of schemes. State
government finds it difficult to contribute even its minor share of 10% which in effect
truncates the central government’s share. The release of funds at the far end of the
year further constrains the department to implement schemes.
Existing schemes being taken up under irrigation sector are essentially micro in nature
and they are not enough to cater the actual demand. They only assist in diverting
water from seasonal streams/rivers to the fields. To address the demand for need-
24
Water Challenges and Opportunities
based and perennial irrigation, medium size irrigation projects must be taken up in all
the predominant food grain producing areas of the State. This will entail heavy
investment for which special assistance is required.
At present, a proper database management system which facilitates decision making is
lacking in the department. This, therefore, leads to inefficiencies in project planning
and execution.
Average per capita supply of water in the cities is 119 lpcd, higher than the desired
supply of 150 lpcd.
The overall development of groundwater in the state is 0.04% of the total available
resource which is quite low. Sustainable groundwater development requires scientific
management in the fields of resource allocation, estimation, development,
conservation and protection.
It is understood that from the field observations, that the barriers in groundwater
development are difficult terrain condition, impenetrable forest, lack of adequate
surface communication, energy shortage, land holding size (local factors), and poor
coordination between various agencies.
Coordination of activities is hindered by several factors, including lack of
communication between different departments; institutional instability; weak
interstate coordination; lack of priority given to water conservation issues; and
absence of demonstrated successful endeavours.
There is no regional consensus about how to confront various water sector issues in a
systematic and balanced manner. Stakeholders have diverse proposals and views,
some of them are contradictory. Convergence of views requires transparent and
mutual dialogue amongst the stakeholders leading to the collective construction of a
future scenario for the development of the water sector in the region and the
guidelines to achieve it.
Thus, there is scope in the North-eastern region to promote an extensive regional dialogue
and participatory strategic planning process to produce a common agenda for water resource
development within an overall strategy for sustainable development.
25
Water Challenges and Opportunities
Though the state has abundant rainfall and perennial rivers, it also faces constraints
particularly in terms of high cost of construction and maintenance of irrigation
infrastructure. This is especially from the point of view of difficult hilly terrain,
inaccessible villages, difficulty in movement of rigs and other equipments.
Importantly recurring flash floods that destroy irrigation infrastructure. However, the
terrain offers considerable scope for development of gravity water supply schemes,
adoption of rainwater harvesting and other traditional water harvesting methods in
this region.
Lack of infrastructure and modules for data collection related to climatic and
hydrological variables is another major concern for the State.
State has the lowest road development index in the country with a road density of
25.16 km per 100 sq. km (national average is 73 km per 100 sq km). The National
highways account for about 1992 km, and major district roads are about 12169 km.
3.2.4 Energy
The state has not established State Electricity Regulatory Commission (SERC) who would
frame Power Policy wherein mandatory purchase of power from renewable energy could be
made. Due to lack of such a regulatory body, there is no proper policy to diffuse the use of
renewable energy in the state.
The current demand for power is 170 MW as against the generation/supply capacity of 115
MW. The transmission losses are also high said to be around 50%. The state lacks grid of its
own and there are high voltage/extra high voltage transmission lines.
According to an investigation carried out by the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) and
26
Water Challenges and Opportunities
Central Water Commission (CWC) Arunachal Pradesh has zero number of sewage treatment
plants since the major rivers of the State are free from pollution and the groundwater is of
excellent quality with all the parameters within permissible limits (CPCB, 2015).
While traditionally, investments in the sector have been financed by the governments,
as in other core infrastructure sectors, the state can no longer finance all such
development activities on its own. The lack of capital expenditure in this sector has
resulted in low coverage and poor quality of service.
National and international experience suggests that to ensure continued financial
sustainability and quality of supply and service to farmers, adequate cost recovery
from delivery of service is necessary. In case, the cost of providing service is not
passed on to the consumers of water (in this case farmers), the burden on the
department and subsequently on the governments continues to increase and such a
situation is not sustainable in the long run.
Non-recovery or under-recovery of costs translate into lower investments leading to
higher losses and deteriorating service over a period. This also impedes the
development of the private capital market, the other alternative of raising funds in the
sector. Further, provision of free water in the form of an input subsidy for agriculture
makes it difficult to track efficiency across sectors and leaves little incentive for
efficiency inducement.
This form of a subsidy may also encourage overuse of the resource - this degrades the
environment and promotes the inefficient on-farm use of water. This may also lead to
long-term effects in the agriculture sector. Finally, the central government need to
provide additional financial support for infrastructure creation in the water sector.
27
Water Challenges and Opportunities
Himalayas are known as the water towers of Asia and provides water to three major
basins of Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra rivers. These rivers are lifestyle and culture
of the basins and economic and cultural value is based on the Himalayan mountain
system.
ICIMOD stated that the Himalayas is one of the ecologically fragile ecosystems,
economically underdeveloped and densely populated mountain ecosystems.
According to a 4 × 4 assessment of MOEF, the projected climate change parameters
in the 2030s with respect to 1970s there will be a rise in temperature and precipitation.
Under 4 X 4 assessment, Himalaya is one of the regions and water is one of the
sectors.
The capacity of the Himalayan ecosystem to adapt to climate change is inadequate,
therefore; it is unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change and is
susceptible to the impacts and consequences of climate change (IPCC, 2012).
IPCC, 2012 report express that flood and drought will be increased by 2030.
It was also stated that the intensity and numbers of rainy days will be erratic. This
affects the agriculture and domestic water demand of the local communities and alters
the livelihood of the society.
With large variations in rainfall amounts, the risk of occurrence of extreme rainfall
events (droughts and floods) tends to increase and hence, on a whole the climate
change affects the soil moisture, groundwater recharge, groundwater levels and
flood/drought frequency (Mall et al., 2006).
Climate change has the potential to impact societies through changing the regional
water availability in turn affecting the irrigated agriculture, energy use to flood
control, municipal and industrial water supply, environmental flows and much more.
Therefore, an increasing number of researchers are attempting to assess the future
impact of climate change in specific regions or certain river basins.
The challenges being faced by water resource managers for any given location are a unique
combination of mainly physical, cultural, engineering financial factors. The key characteristic
28
Water Challenges and Opportunities
of the freshwater resources is their uneven distribution and variability with respect to time
and space basically, challenges to be met out by the water managers are of three types:
shortage, surplus, and quality. Effective mitigation measures are needed to cope up with
climate change along with an adaptive strategy (IPCC, 2012).
Socio-economic conditions, governance and gender drivers are determining factors leading to
vulnerability. Many mountain dependent communities of Eastern and Western Himalayas are
highly vulnerable to water risks due to development pressures, population increase, and
further uncertainties associated with climate change. Bio-physical conditions, isolation and
socio-economic marginalization pose constraints to the adaptive capacities of the
communities and limit their ability to plan.
At the same time, people do adapt to changes in social-ecological conditions with varying
capacities with several factors interacting across individual, household, community and
higher jurisdictional levels. Of course, poor people have tended to suffer the greatest health
burden from inadequate and poor-quality water supplies and resultant poor health
(WHO,2015) have been unable to escape from the cycle of poverty and waterborne diseases.
The climate of the state is influenced greatly by the Himalayan mountains and large
variations in altitude across the state. The critical issues that are spread across the sectors and
domains include: climate change vulnerability assessment studies across sectors,
strengthening of database and infrastructure for climate-related data collection and analysis,
Capacity building and training, IPR and traditional knowledge protection, documenting
29
Water Challenges and Opportunities
traditional practices, local knowledge and folk traditions, gender-sensitive adaptation options
like effective strategies for ensuring water supply and quality and reducing the burden on
women caused by water collection, gender-specific use of health facilities, women's access to
new technologies, extension services and credit facilities etc.
Priority areas for research should include: documenting biodiversity status, traditional and
folk knowledge, long-term monitoring for understanding state specific climate change
aspects, research in the identification of alternative means of livelihood and low and
alternative energy options, preparing communication strategies. About 59 % of GHG
emissions come from the energy category. Agriculture sector contributes 75 % of CH4 and 39
% of NO2 emission in the state.
Flood is a recurring phenomenon in the State due to high precipitation. The magnitude of
floods and river bank erosion problems are increasing every year in the State. Analysis for
entire Brahmaputra basin reveals an increase in the annual precipitation of 2.3 % for the
middle of the century (2030s) as compared to baseline. However, for the Brahmaputra basin
lying within Arunachal Pradesh, analysis projects a decrease in annual precipitation of about
5% to 15% by mid-century. The change in water availability show spatial variation from
marginal reduction (5%) to no change across the state towards 2030s. The green water flow
(evapotranspiration) shows increase but the magnitude is marginal under mid-century as
compared to baseline. The situation of green water storage (soil water) shows no change from
the baseline under mid-century scenario. These projections are derived from SWAT
distributed hydrologic modelling.
Under the impact of climate change on forest it was shown that significant proportion of the
forests in Arunachal Pradesh is vulnerable to climate change risks. There are no scientific
studies to recommend specific vulnerability reduction measures suitable for different
vulnerable forest types and regions.
The forests in Arunachal Pradesh are subjected to human interventions in many districts
leading to loss of biodiversity, even though it is lower compared to the other states of North-
east India. There is a need for conducting preliminary studies to identify locations for
implementing the vulnerability reduction measures. The exact area for implementing the
30
Water Challenges and Opportunities
vulnerability reduction interventions is not readily available but a preliminary estimate of the
investment required is provided.
Apart from projected vulnerability due to climate change, the forests in Arunachal Pradesh
also face several threats and biotic pressures in the form of shifting cultivation, grazing, forest
fires, encroachment, commercial plantations, human-wildlife conflicts and illegal extraction
of forest products along interstate borders with Assam and Nagaland.
Forest sector provides a large opportunity for mitigation of climate change, through reducing
CO2 emissions by reducing deforestation and forest degradation as well as increasing carbon
sinks in the existing forests and creating new sinks in degraded lands through afforestation.
Carbon sequestration of forests of Arunachal Pradesh is very significant in India.
Heavy precipitation leads to waterlogging, salinity and oxygen depletion in agricultural land.
Acute shortage of fodder for livestock and damage grazing lands during a flood or due to a
landslide; Prolonged flooding damage crop yields and increased runoff that affect the
watershed management. Jhum and shifting cultivation areas are becoming more vulnerable
during such situation and lead increase runoff, flood and landslide. Jhum is a local and
traditional practice and cannot be banned due to the individual periodical occurrence or
community rights of ownership over the forest land and non-availability of other livelihood
options. This promotes removal of the vegetation coverage for Jhum cycle. Rehabilitation of
shifting cultivation areas and improvements in current practice need major thrust in this
region.
There lacks a constant monitoring of climate change signals/climate variability and creating
meteorological database/forecasting for decision support system. There is no exclusive R&D
on shifting cultivation in the state, its impact on climate change, documentation on the loss of
flora and fauna etc.
3.4.4 Disaster
The State of Arunachal Pradesh is prone to a variety of natural disasters such as cloudbursts,
landslides, flash floods and forest fires. The state is prone to earthquakes and is in the seismic
zone V. The changing climatic conditions may hamper lives and property, cause disruption of
economic activity and damage to the environment and degrade the continuity and
sustainability of development of the State.
31
Water Challenges and Opportunities
32
Water Challenges and Opportunities
The importance of irrigation in the growth of agricultural production hardly needs any
emphasis. All around the world irrigation projects have benefited agriculture in numerous
ways. Irrigation directly benefits by assuring food security through increased production.
Indirect benefits include improvement in the socio-economic welfare of local people and
controlling deforestation (caused by expansion of NSA) by increasing output-land ratio. At a
policy-making level, the expansion of irrigation infrastructure can play a very important role
towards the goal of achieving higher agricultural productivity and thus, food security. In
brief, irrigation can contribute to the development of the state in the following ways:
33
Water Challenges and Opportunities
Agriculture is the primary driver of the Arunachal’s economy with around 70% of the state’s
population being dependent on agriculture and allied activities. According to Agriculture
Census 2000-01, the total Net Sown Area (NSA) was reported as 2, 00,210 hectares, out of
which, nearly 42% was under shifting cultivation (Jhum).
Out of the total net sown area, cereals (rice, wheat, maize and millets) hold a predominant
share. State agriculture is subsistence in nature and modernization of farm practices has
mostly eluded the state as is evident by poor yield rates, low consumption of fertilizers and
wide scale practised mono cropping. (Moreover, key infrastructure facilities like irrigation,
the supply of input, marketing, institutional credit and extension services are inadequate)
34
Water Challenges and Opportunities
It also covers regulatory water distribution activity called WARABANDI, the formation of
registered water user association (WUA), training to the officers and farmers as soft activities
of the programme. The programme aims at establishing a close partnership between the
farmers (water users) and the implementing Govt. Department with the ultimate objective of
transferring the responsibility of irrigation management system to the farmers.
Out of 1.20 lakh, hectare net irrigation potential created, about 0.48 lakh hectare only has
been brought under the utilization. The utilized area works out to be 40% only leaving 60%
potential created unutilized. With the help of Govt. of India, CSS Command Area
Development programmes are under implementation in a phased manner to narrow down the
existing gap of 60%. The agriculture in the state is predominantly dependent on rains with
less than 23% (44,478 hectares) of the net sown was under irrigation as per the Minor
Irrigation Census 2000-2001.
Table 3-1 Net Sown Area (NSA) and Net Irrigated Area (NIA) (in ha)
As of now, the total surface water used for irrigation is approximately 4000 MCM in the
state. As already explained, the state has very low groundwater potential, it is only surface
water which is primarily used for irrigation. The total surface water supplied for irrigation
purposes at the district level is a follow:
35
Water Challenges and Opportunities
Table 3-2 Total surface water supplied (in MCM) for irrigation purposes
36
Water Challenges and Opportunities
Table 3-4 Summary of Information collected though state and central document
Heads Sector Scenario Cause Policy
Poorly developed Rough terrain, financial Policy should target
and unexplored and infrastructure investing more on
groundwater developments and infrastructure development
resources support to address water use
efficiency issues
Lack of knowledge and Central/ state level Skill
Poor water exposure to available development schemes
conservation technology for water convergence with the water
practices conservation and better sector related
precision irrigation policies/schemes.
methods.
Ground Water
Lack of The sites where ground The basic objective of
conjunctive use of water can be exploited ground water scheme is not
Ground-Surface do not seem to be to benefit one farmer. The
water conducive for schemes should be modified
community farming, to benefit group of farmers
since large tracts of who can collectively
lands are owned by maintain and manage the
individual farmers, thus system
most of the ground water
schemes have benefited
only individual farmers
Decline in base Inadequate Water Water conservation;
flow in non- conservation Artificial Recharge;
Supply/ Surface Water
monsoon Afforestation
Source side Flow of large Inadequate reservoir Funding towards Medium
runoff into sea storage Irrigation structure
Low storage Siltation, Erosions and A proper financial and
capacity and flood damage are major maintenance support should
Tanks &
defunct due to cause be provided for
Wetlands
poor maintenance rejuvenations of tanks and
wetlands.
Drying Human factors and Separate schemes for springs
Springs
Climate change rejuvenation are required
Underutilization Poor drainage systems Promotions in sewage
of Waste water and less established treatment plants
Waste Water water sewage treatment establishment and enhancing
plants sewage network in urban
local bodies.
High rainfall Heavy precipitations Plans for investing in robust
causing floods, during monsoons and and periodical measurement
landslides and steep slopes due to of climatic variables and
erosion mountainous topography flow in major streams. A
detailed policy and schemes
Precipitation
should be launched for all
major rivers for flood
control measures and
providing water
conservation for dry periods.
Retreating Changing climatic A detailed research required
glaciers and high conditions. for data collection/
Glaciers
melting. monitoring of extent and
loss of glaciers.
Less-availability Stress / Scarcity at More plans for site
Drinking
Demand side of safe Drinking source identification for planting
Water
Water more water extraction units
37
Water Challenges and Opportunities
38
Water Challenges and Opportunities
39
Water Challenges and Opportunities
40
Water Challenges and Opportunities
Table 3-5 Climate and Infrastructure based research grant and financial support from
State and central
Research Grant /
Heads Sector Scenario Cause Policy
Financial Support
Poorly Rough terrain, Policy should Infrastructure
developed and financial and target investing developments led
unexplored infrastructure more on project support
groundwater developments infrastructure
resources and support development to
address water use
efficiency issues
Lack of Central/ state level Skill
Poor water knowledge Skill development Development
conservation and exposure schemes Programme on
practices to available convergence with available
technology for the water sector technology for
water related water
conservation policies/schemes. conservation and
and better better precision
precision irrigation
irrigation methods.
methods.
Ground Water Lack of The sites The basic objective Grant on
conjunctive use where ground of ground water conjunctive use of
of Ground- water can be scheme is not to Ground and
Surface water exploited do benefit one farmer. surface water
Supply/
not seem to be The schemes where ground
Source side
conducive for should be modified water can be
community to benefit group of exploited do not
farming, since farmers who can seem to be
large tracts of collectively conducive for
lands are maintain and community
owned by manage the system farming
individual
farmers, thus
most of the
ground water
schemes have
benefited only
individual
farmers
Decline in base Inadequate Water Fund to support
flow in non- Water conservation; Water
monsoon conservation Artificial conservation
Surface Water Recharge;
Afforestation
Flow of large Inadequate Funding towards Fund for Medium
runoff into sea reservoir Medium Irrigation and Large
storage structure irrigation projects
41
Water Challenges and Opportunities
Research Grant /
Heads Sector Scenario Cause Policy
Financial Support
for reservoir
storage
Low storage Siltation, A proper financial Fund allocation
capacity and Erosions and and maintenance for rejuvenations
Tanks & defunct due to flood damage support should be of tanks and
Wetlands poor are major provided for wetlands
maintenance cause rejuvenations of
tanks and wetlands.
Drying Human factors Separate schemes Separate research
and Climate for springs grant on springs
Springs
change rejuvenation are rejuvenation
required
Underutilization Poor drainage Promotions in Infrastructure
of Waste water systems and sewage treatment support grant on
less plants Sewage network
Waste Water established establishment and for Urban local
water sewage enhancing sewage bodies
treatment network in urban
plants local bodies.
High rainfall Heavy Plans for investing Infrastructure
causing floods, precipitations in robust and grant for AWS
landslides and during periodical and River gauge
erosion monsoons and measurement of stations in all
steep slopes climatic variables major watersheds
due to and flow in major
mountainous streams. A detailed
Precipitation topography policy and schemes
should be launched
for all major rivers
for flood control
measures and
providing water
conservation for
dry periods.
Retreating Changing A detailed research Research Grant
glaciers and climatic required for data on Snow melt and
high melting. conditions. collection/ runoff modelling
Glaciers
monitoring of
extent and loss of
glaciers.
Less- Stress / More plans for site Case base study
availability of Scarcity at identification for Grant – Pilot
Drinking
safe Drinking source planting more projects
Water
Water water extraction
units
Large Inadequate Additional surface Grant for
consumer; storage; water storage; maintenance of
Poor Water Use Seasonal Revival of irrigation
Demand side Efficiency shortages, traditional water structures
Farm Sector poor bodies
maintenance
of irrigation
structures due
to lack of fund
No data related Poor High WUE; Water Establishment for
Industry and
to water technology; Audits; Recycling Water Auditing
infrastructure
consumption or Poor recycling framework
42
Water Challenges and Opportunities
Research Grant /
Heads Sector Scenario Cause Policy
Financial Support
demand in Location in
small/ large water scarce
scale industries areas;
Lack of Lack of Policies must target Infrastructure
monitoring policies demands/consumpt grant for metering
systems of pertaining to ions in different the consumption
Establishments
water water establishments and of water
and
consumption requirements secure water
institutions
and demand. at institutional allocation guideline
level. sin annual
budgeting
Forest Shifting There should be Grant for Skill
degradation, cultivation, strict protected Development
conversion of Human land policies, also programme
dense into open invasion, ensuring natural
forests, loss or flow in streams
Forest and
migration of crossing these
wildlife
species. forest lands, to
maintain diversity.
Also promoting
afforestation and
plantation
Pollution / Geo-genic & No STP as of now Infrastructure
Contamination: anthropogenic in state. grant on STP
Ground and
; Inadequacy- Should be invested
Surface Water
measurement more in water
& regulation treatment plants,
Deteriorating Geo-genic & and more water Research grant on
Water Quality- anthropogenic quality Establishment of
Physical, contamination measurement Drinking Water
Chemical and ; Poor stations for testing labs
Biological regulation enforcing strict
Contamination: Poor Water rules on Infrastructure
Sewage supply contaminating grant on Ground
infrastructure points. and Surface
Drinking
and Also, water Water monitoring
Water
maintenance; infrastructure station
Inadequate should be
and ineffective developed to a
Quality treatment standard, for
facility combating any
leakages, and
maintenance
checks.
Deteriorating Irrational Use in Agriculture/ Research grant for
Water Quality; application of Industry water use
Salinity Fertilizers, Infrastructure for efficiency and
Pesticides; robust drainage crop productivity
poor farm systems for
management avoiding any water
Farm Sector practices quality
deterioration
during flow.
High quality crop
varieties and
fertilizers are to be
invested in. More
43
Water Challenges and Opportunities
Research Grant /
Heads Sector Scenario Cause Policy
Financial Support
research should be
promoted to
increase water use
efficiency and crop
productivity.
44
Water Challenges and Opportunities
Research Grant /
Heads Sector Scenario Cause Policy
Financial Support
that directly for all major rivers
defunct the for flood control
water resource measures and de-
infrastructure. siltation.
No control on State Subject; State Water Establishment of
consumption GOI: only Budgeting; A nodal agency
exceeding advisory role; Rigorous for Water
Water availability No Single awareness Auditing and
Governance Agency for campaign led by budgeting
coordination centre with full
active support from
State
There is lack of The More monitoring Grant for more
Ground water infrastructure stations should be monitoring
monitoring development established, and stations
stations in in regular
valleys, while groundwater measurements and
only few lies in sector is very analysis of the
Ground Water lower plains of poor and observations
the state. terrain should be made.
condition This may also
poses a require different
challenge in funding for
new infrastructure
developments. development.
Poor Measurement Measurement Funded Scheme
monitoring of is almost nil meters required for for Measurement
resource Except observing domestic meters required
Measurement/ availability Reservoir, and industrial for observing
Assessment (supply) and Rivers & requirement domestic and
Institutional consumption Ground Water /consumptions. industrial
(demand) resources requirement
/consumptions
Dams and CAD Poor Need for effective Allocate of fund
-are old; maintenance; organizational for maintenance
Inefficient and Poor structures and of old structures
Infrastructure
Inadequate management allocate fund for
reservoir etc. maintenance of old
storage capacity structures.
Wide gap in Leakages and Incentivization Fund to restore
IPC & IPU Seepage; the Leakages and
(112.53-89.26 Method Seepage
MHa) (Flood) of
irrigation;
Poor
Management
system /
Benefits/ Scheduling
Services and Low
Investment
Sub-optimal Inefficient More investment Funds for
Water Use (unlined/ towards progressive and
Efficiency- unpiped) technological supportive
more Wastage water advancements is research and
distribution required, this also development for
system includes funds for WUE or similar
progressive and studies.
45
Water Challenges and Opportunities
Research Grant /
Heads Sector Scenario Cause Policy
Financial Support
supportive research
and development
for WUE or similar
studies.
Water No Detailed Establishment of
Regulatory measurement; documentation is A nodal agency
Authority- unaccounted required to account for Water
Regulation Inter- use of water in water resources Auditing and
coordination different inter and intra- budgeting
between various sectors sectors.
water users
Precision Mostly flood More investment More investment
irrigation area is irrigation. towards towards
very less technological technological
advancements is advancements is
required, this also required
includes funds for
progressive and
supportive research
and development
for WUE or similar
studies.
Farm Sector Cropping Lack of A detailed Skill development
pattern does not knowledge framework is programme on
coincide with and price- required for water water energy and
available water based energy and food food nexus
resources agriculture nexus
practices
Technology
High Chemicals Lack of Organic farming Skill development
usage knowledge must be promoted programme on
and price- water energy and
based food nexus
agriculture
practices
Less WUE No Water Establishing more More investment
/Water saving Audits, less WWTPs, Proper on more WWTPs
Lack of WWTP awareness water auditing, and
Industry about reusing reusing water for
waste water efficient
consumption and
saving.
Leakages; Water saving investments Investment on
Drinking Less WUE technology / Water saving
Water /Water containing technology
productivity leaks
Not valued; No Lack of Awareness Infrastructure to
water tariffing Infrastructure programs for monitor and
Value for
Economics Wastage, to monitor and efficient and control wastages
resource
control judicious use of
wastages water
Inadequate Fund allocated keeping the terrain Special and
investments by the central conditions and additional grants
govt is infrastructure cost for Arunachal
Financing Investments uniform for in north-eastern Pradesh due to
the nation. region, it requires topography and
special funding for poor connectivity.
completing the
46
Water Challenges and Opportunities
Research Grant /
Heads Sector Scenario Cause Policy
Financial Support
projects on time.
No data Poor A water budget Fund for water
transparency in measurement portal is mandatory budget online
Supply, systems; No for auditing the portal
Data
Demand and data demand supply and
Transparency Resources
Quality transparency consumptions of
Funds
in Supply, each sector.
Demand and
Quality
In Arunachal Customary It was observed Government
even in the PIM norms of that although generally requires
schemes, many water farmers wanted to additional fund
rules allocation are claim ownership, for continuous
concerning the respected by they did not want wear and tear of
distribution of the to take up the structures.
water are community. responsibility of
established and Hence in the the irrigation
followed in current systems. This need
Public customary context water strengthening of
Democracy
involvement practices based distribution PIM norms and
on their own does not educating them
agreed assume about O&M of the
allocation rules significant water
rather than the importance to infrastructure.
written water assess the Government
distribution impact of PIM generally lacks the
schedule fund for continuous
wear and tear of
the structures.
47
Water resources
4 Water resources
The water resources have two facets - dynamic and static. The dynamic resource, measured
as flow, is more relevant for most of the developmental needs. The static or fixed nature of
the resource, involving the quantity of water, the geometry of the water bodies is also
relevant for some activities like pisciculture, navigation etc.
The water resources potential of Brahmaputra basin is the highest in the country, but its
present utilization is the lowest. The Brahmaputra is a major international river covering
drainage of 5,80,000 Sq.km, 50.50% of which is lying in China, 33.60% in India, 8.10% in
Bangladesh and 7.80% in Bhutan. Its basin in India is shared mostly by Arunachal Pradesh
(41.88%), Assam (36.33%), Nagaland (5.57%), Meghalaya (6.10%) Sikkim (3.75%) and
West Bengal (6.47%). Within Arunachal Pradesh, there are 10 major river basins consisting
of 19 catchments of rivers. Numerous rivers originating from these basins ultimately drain to
Brahmaputra River. This is a boon for the State for development of agriculture, power and
industry sectors but at the same time, these rivers have the destructive potentials unless
certain preventive and protective measures are taken up in the State.
The Himalayan Rivers carry heavy sediment loads because of steep bed slope, soft and
friable Himalayan rock. This is further aggravated by population growth with unscientific
human activities on the valleys and high seismicity of the region. Consequent upon major
seismic disturbance in 1950, large-scale landslide and heavy sediment transportation started.
Rivers started braiding in the foothill area and this dynamic process is still actively
continuing. It can compensate the deficit in other basins. Even though the economy of the
state depends on agriculture. Agricultural productivity is low because of a combination of
factors like climatic, infrastructural, biophysical, managerial and socio-economic. Irrigation
development is still in infancy as only 18.06% of the net cropped area is brought under
irrigation. 32.08% of the total area of Arunachal Pradesh is considered a problem area due to
soil erosion and land degradation.
The rich water resources of Arunachal Pradesh are required to be harnessed with a view of
developing irrigation and hydropower. High rainfall combined with some other factors cause
soil degradation which results in low agricultural activity. The water resources developments
influence the land resource management to a great deal. Therefore, it is necessary to develop,
conserve and efficiently utilized the available water. This requires infrastructure and financial
support from the centre.
48
Water resources
About 80% of the mean annual flow of River Brahmaputra is contributed by more than 3,000
small and big river tributaries. Within the state, there are 19 major river basins consisting of
46 major and medium type rivers.
The water balance study finds wide applicability in land and water resource management, agriculture,
horticulture irrigation and domestic and thus it has potential to affect the development of a state,
whose economy largely depends on agriculture production. The state of Arunachal Pradesh has
varying degrees of seasonal & climatic inputs and this specific characteristic of the state contributes to
great variability in the magnitude of agriculture production across the region. The factors accounted to
estimate the water balance are:
b) The geomorphologic factors such as area, shape, slope, soil properties, drainage network
characteristics and elevation and
The issues like accessibility, socio-cultural factors, lack of observatories and climate severity were
accounted for in determining the water balance.
49
Water resources
green grass cover of uniform height, actively growing, completely shading the ground and not short of
water.
50
Water resources
Figure 4-3: Change in Total Water availability due land practices at catchment level
51
Water resources
Glaciers:
Arunachal Pradesh has the lowest concentration of glaciers in India. Glaciers are found in the
Kameng Basin (52 glaciers covering an area of 66 km2), in the Subansiri Basin (91 glaciers
covering an area of 146 km2) and in the Dibang Basin (14 glaciers covering an area of 11
km2).
52
Water resources
Lakes:
Ganga Lake, popularly known as Geker Sinying, is surrounded by lush greenery and majestic
mountains from all sides in Itanagar. Since the lake has no connection with moving water
bodies, therefore, its color is green. Madhuri Lake located in Tawang is a pristine location
nestled amidst the picturesque mountains. The lake is supposed to be an outcome of a major
earthquake in 1950. There was a grazing ground before the earthquake occurred. Nagula lake
in Tawang is usually frozen. Lake of no return, in Chalang district borders on Myanmar, is
1.4 km in length and 0.8 km in width in its widest part.
53
Water resources
Ponds:
Ponds are also the natural habitat of many species thus their loss will endanger a lot of flora
and fauna as well. They are usually considered as the community property used especially for
irrigating agricultural land as also for bathing, washing, cooking purpose and water for their
cattle. More importantly, these ponds help in recharging groundwater while a variety of birds
survive on small fishes and insects in these ponds. In Arunachal Pradesh, ponds have been
constructed but not used for drinking or irrigation purposes. Ita Pukhuri is located at Ithili
village about 14 km from Roing in Lower Dibang Valley district of Arunachal Pradesh.
During the months of October/November, hundreds of lotus flowers bloom in the pond. The
Kampona pond located in Idili village near Roing is an ancient clear water tank. The data
shown below confirms the presence of many lakes of different sizes in the state.
If we investigate the wetlands of the state, almost all of them have decreased in the area in the
past four years. There are around 7 wetlands in the state whose area is larger than 20 Km sq.
The wetlands have their own ecosystems and any change in moisture availability to these
large areas may affect their viability. There are only 36 man-made wetlands which mainly
includes ponds/tanks or reservoirs.
54
Water resources
Wetland statistics of Arunachal stated that 99.1% of the inland wetland are natural whereas
only 0.9% is man-made. The state should take initiative to the develop more man-made
wetland for ecosystems services.
55
Water resources
The High-Altitude Fish Seed Farm, covering an area of 7.4 hectares of land was established
at Tarin (near Ziro town) under North Eastern Council (NEC) in 1985-86. The total water
area covered is 3.0 hectares and total affected water area covered is 2.75 hectare. The total
number of ponds under the farm is 74. Out of which 46 numbers are nursery ponds, 16 are
rearing ponds and 12 are stocking ponds. The Apatani tribe practice aquaculture along with
rice farming on their plots. Rice-fish culture in the valley is a unique practice in the state,
where two crops of rice (Mipya and Emoh) and one crop of fish (Ngihi) are raised together.
Reservoir/Storage:
There are no major or medium water storage reservoirs in the State, except one minor. There
are 6 water bodies larger than 50 ha and 64 which, covers an area more than 20ha. These are
mainly tanks or ponds. Lower Subansiri and Ranganadi are two reservoirs in the state for
hydro-generation
56
Water resources
Arunachal Pradesh has 2.56 BCM annual replenishable ground water resources and net
annual groundwater availability of 2.30 BCM and the annual groundwater draft is 0.0008
BCM. The Stage of Ground Water Development is 0.04 %. In context of Groundwater
development and management, there are no blocks or taluks which fall in the category of the
over-exploited, critical and semi-critical zone. Therefore, the groundwater potential exploited
so far is negligible. With the depletion of surface water resources in the foothill areas of
Arunachal Pradesh, especially Changlang, Lohit, Lower Dibang Valley, East Siang, Papum
Pare and East Kameng Districts, the need to exploit groundwater potential for meeting the
requirements of drinking water and irrigation is increasing day by day.
The CGWB had assessed an irrigational potential about 18,000 hectares through groundwater
in the State. An area of more than 87,500 hectares has been irrigated in Arunachal Pradesh.
Minor Irrigation Census of the State reveals that about 0.12-million-hectare (about 66.67% of
available potential) area is irrigated. Fresh Potential Assessment is being done under GIS
environment and ultimate potential is expected to increase to around 0.85 million hectares.
57
Water resources
Out of all the groundwater draft, approximately 215 MCM is used for agricultural purposes
mainly for irrigation. While 707.8 MCM is used for domestic and industrial purposes.
Considering the rate of population growth, the total demand for water from ground zones will
be 20122 MCM in the year 2025
If the water level for the year 2015 is compared with the last 10 years of mean, out of 9 wells
observed, all wells show an increase in monsoon water level. The wells show 0-2 meters of
decreased water level as compared to 10 years of the mean for pre-monsoon season, for 5 out
of 10 wells observed. This might indicate an increase of GW draft or decrease of recharge
during the year. Following tables details the inference.
Out of all the districts, the Lohit has the highest groundwater recharge. Adversely to this, the
groundwater development there is much less than other districts. Considering this water
availability, the resources can be used for irrigation, which is currently being exercised only
of its 5%. East Siang though has the highest consumption of Groundwater of all the districts
for agriculture and industrial /domestic use.
58
Water resources
Development (%)
Monsoon Period
Draft
Availability
up to 2025
Sl District Monsoon Season Non-Monsoon Season
Water Supply
Domestic &
Industrial
Irrigation
Recharge
Recharge
Recharge
Recharge
Total
Rainfall
Rainfall
Sources
Sources
Other
Other
Total
from
from
from
from
1 Anjaw
2 Changlang 207.61 0.18 69.07 0.27 277.13 27.71 249.42 0.26 0.99 1.24 2.04 247.12 0.50
3 Dibang Valley
4 East Kameng 133.64 0.00 30.30 0.00 163.94 16.39 147.55 0.15 0.03 0.18 0.14 147.26 0.12
5 East Siang 603.04 0.08 149.49 0.12 752.73 75.27 677.46 0.71 1.79 2.50 3.66 673.10 0.37
6 Kurung Kumey
7 Lohit 1428.90 0.00 523.07 0.00 1951.97 195.20 1756.77 0.05 2.53 2.58 10.81 1745.91 0.15
8 Lower Dibang Valley 704.06 0.00 249.47 0.00 953.53 95.35 858.18 0.34 0.48 0.82 1.61 856.24 0.09
9 Lower Subansiri 17.61 0.00 8.03 0.00 25.64 2.56 23.08 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.12 22.91 0.22
10 Pampum Pare 107.27 0.00 25.04 0.27 132.58 13.26 119.32 0.58 0.84 1.41 1.10 117.65 1.19
11 Tawang
12 Tirap 72.08 0.00 20.44 0.00 92.52 9.25 83.27 0.03 0.18 0.21 0.57 82.67 0.25
13 Upper Siang
14 Upper Subansiri 2.28 0.00 1.05 0.00 3.33 0.33 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 0.00
15 West Kameng 14.06 0.00 3.44 0.00 17.51 1.75 15.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 15.69 0.00
16 West Siang 49.36 0.01 12.86 0.01 62.23 6.22 56.01 0.00 0.25 0.25 0.10 55.91 0.45
Total (MCM) 3339.91 0.27 1092.26 0.67 4433.10 443.29 3989.82 2.15 7.08 9.23 20.22 3967.45 0.23
Total (BCM) 3.340 0.000 1.092 0.001 4.433 0.443 3.990 0.002 0.007 0.01 0.02 3.967 0.23
59
Water resources
Table 4-11 District wise categorization of water level fluctuation 10 years mean
August 2005- August 2014
Range (in m) Rise Fall
Number of
District Rise Fall 0-2 m 2-4 m >4 m 0-2 m 2-4 m >4 m
Stations Analyzed
Min Max Min Max No % No % No % No % No % No %
Changlang 4 0.61 1.59 4 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lohit 1 0.43 0.43 1 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Papumpare 1 0.25 0.25 1 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tirap 3 1.41 1.75 3 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 9 9 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
November 2005- November 2014
State / Number of Range (in m) Rise Fall
District Stations Analyzed Rise Fall 0-2 m 2-4 m >4 m 0-2 m 2-4 m >4 m
Min Max Min Max No % No % No % No % No % No %
Changlang 4 0.02 0.75 0.07 0.07 3 75 0 0 0 0 1 25 0 0 0 0
Lohit 1 0.31 0.31 1 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Papumpare 2 0.34 0.36 2 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tirap 3 0.01 0.85 3 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 10 9 90 0 0 0 0 1 10 0 0 0 0
January 2006- January 2015
State / Number of Range (in m) Rise Fall
District Stations Analyzed Rise Fall 0-2 m 2-4 m >4 m 0-2 m 2-4 m >4 m
Min Max Min Max No % No % No % No % No % No %
Changlang 4 0.28 0.77 0.45 0.82 2 50 0 0 0 0 2 50 0 0 0 0
East Siang 1 0.31 0.31 1 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lohit 1 0.38 0.38 1 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Papumpare 2 0.74 0.74 0.35 0.35 1 50 0 0 0 0 1 50 0 0 0 0
Tirap 3 0.45 1.67 3 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 11 8 72.8 0 0 0 0 3 27.2 0 0 0 0
60
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
About 54.6% of the population is engaged in agriculture and allied activities and 80% of the
population living in the rural area is dependent on agriculture and about 62 % of total
working populations are engaged in agriculture. The net area shown increased due to the
extension of agriculture and various central and state initiative and a grant provided to the
department of agriculture that leads to the requirement of better infrastructure for irrigation in
the state.
Irrigated Area
Productivity
Productivity
Production
Production
Total Area
Total Area
(tonnes)
(tonnes)
(t/ha)
(t/ha)
(ha)
(ha)
(ha)
(ha)
Food Crops
61
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
The highest productivity is of rice or paddy in the state in both the seasons. It accounts for
approximately 2.51 t/ha in Kharif and 2.33 t/ha in Rabi. While even in Kharif season, out of
approx. 1.3 lakh ha, it needs irrigation on around 50 thousand ha of area. While the
production of paddy goes as low as 1100 tonnes in Rabi from 3 lakh tonnes in Kharif. As rice
is an intense water requiring crop, it clearly shows that irrigation facility is not able to support
even half of the production of rice in Rabi season. The production of pulses, however, is 20%
more in Rabi season.
The Command Area Development Water Management (CADWM) programme envisages the
utilization of irrigation potential. Available records indicate that a wide utilization gap exists
till today. Out of 1.20 lakh, hectare net irrigation potential created, about 0.48 lakh hectare
62
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
only has been brought underutilization. The utilized area works out to be 40% only leaving
60% potential created unutilized. This is a major consumer side of the water in this State.
Percent of irrigation of the state for agriculture is about 19% of total cultivable crop land
whereas the 60374 ha of land is cultivable in horticulture crop. Lohit district shares about
35% of total Horticulture area. Rest all districts ranging from 1 to 10%.
As per the State Government’s New Agriculture Policy, status of Agriculture in Arunachal
Pradesh (Base Year 1999-2000) is to the tune of 1.10-lakh hectare under Jhum/shifting
Cultivation and 0.90 lakh hectare under permanent Cultivation. Rice is of traditional variety
and most of the tribes cultivate different varieties of rice. Paddy, millet, maize, oil seeds,
potato, ginger are the other major crops cultivated. As per WRD, the total coverage assured
under Irrigation is 19% on the net area and 15% to gross area. In terms of expanding
irrigation coverage, in 2005-2006 Government of Arunachal Pradesh were able to increase
the irrigation coverage to 114659 Ha from 110332 Ha in 2004-2005. There exists immense
scope to boost agriculture production by increasing area under irrigation coverage. The
statistics shown in table explains that around 75% of Kharif crop and approx. 94% of Rabi
crop is under rain-fed. In total around 81% of the agriculture is under rain-fed. This reflects
upon the irrigation facility yet to be developed in the state.
63
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
64
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
Various studies have shown that increasing income and urbanization leads to a change in the food
consumption patterns of its people. It is generally accepted that income and urbanization are two
major drivers of changing consumption patterns. People from low-income classes increase their
nutrition intake through easily accessible crops, such as cereals and pulses. With economic growth, as
income and access to other foods increase, people diversify food habits by consuming more non-grain
crops and animal products. Studies have illustrated the emerging shift in food consumption patterns in
India from food grains to non-grain food crops and animal products. Consumption expenditure survey
carried out by Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) show that the average monthly per capita cereal
consumption in the urban areas of India has dropped and the corresponding decline in the rural areas
for the specified periods. Within the grain products, there is a shift from coarse cereals to superior
cereals such as rice and wheat. Studies have also suggested that the per capita grain consumption will
decrease further due to the reduction in the physical labor requirement in rural areas. (Source:
Changing Consumption Patterns of India: Implications on Future Food Demand, Upali A.
Amarasinghe and Om Prakash Singh)
These studies have also forecasted future food requirement. These are basically done at all India level
assuming: These studies have also forecasted future food requirement. These are basically done at all
India level assuming
The total calorie supply would continue to increase in the future. The share of grain in
consumption basket will decrease in future.
The dominance of food grains in the consumption basket is likely to decrease in the future,
and the consumption of non-grain crops and animal products would increase to provide a
major part of the daily calorie supply.
Feed demand is expected to increase much faster with increasing animal products in the diet.
Although, total food grain demand will decrease; the total grain demand is likely to increase
with the increasing feed demand for the livestock.
To calculate total food production, we need to estimate the following variables for 2030-31:
65
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
estimate their values in 2030-31, key assumptions must be made for each of the variables.
The calculation matrix below shows the possible future of the agriculture under both
scenarios in 2030-31. Key findings are mentioned below in brief.
Variable Units
Population
Low Growth Scenario 1975000
High Growth Scenario 2054971
Per capita food requirement 240 Kg /cap/ Yr
Total food demand
Low Growth Scenario 474000 MT
High Growth Scenario 493193 MT
Net Sown Area under Food Crops 180556 Ha
Cropping Intensity 1.27
GCA (Food Crops) 229306 Ha
Irrigated Area 68503 Ha
Un- Irrigated Area 160802 Ha
Yield Irrigated Area 2.6 MT/Ha
Un-Irrigated Area 1.1 MT/Ha
Total Production 354992 MT
Food Shortage in 2031 Low Growth Scenario 119008 MT
High Growth Scenario 138201 MT
Firstly, a severe food shortage is estimated under both scenarios. Under the low growth scenario
deficit in food supplies is estimated at 119008 MT and under high growth scenario, the deficit goes up
to 138201 MT. Secondly, the percentage of the total production of food grains the deficit is estimated
at 34% under low growth and 39% under the high growth scenario.
At the present, the figures provided by the Agriculture Department the deficit as a percentage of
production is estimated at 35%. Although, there is not a huge rise in the percentage of the deficit, in
absolute figures the deficit has increased by 40% under low growth and 60% under high growth
scenario. This implies that there will be a very high dependency on food supplies from outside the
state. Lastly, growth in crop yields is a slow process and land for agriculture expansion is limited.
Moreover, double cropping may also not grow rapidly owing to extreme winters at high altitudes and
the mindset of the people.
Therefore, one of the assured ways to achieve self-sufficiency is through the expansion of land under
irrigation. To achieve this target, in addition to the present irrigation infrastructure, 80,000 to 90,000
hectares in addition to present figures must be irrigated in next two decades.
As per the Minor Irrigation Census 2000-01, the available irrigation potential in Arunachal
Pradesh is estimated as 680534 hectares. The total potential created up to 2000-01 is 124250
hectares, out of which the irrigation potential utilized is merely 44478 hectares (Gross
Irrigated Area). This makes up around 36% of the total potential created which is
66
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
considerably low. Out of the total net irrigated land of approximately 40,000 hectares, around
38300 are through surface water irrigation. The share of groundwater in the total net irrigated
land is around 774 hectares which are considerably low given that the total groundwater
potential estimated to be 150000.
The study has not been able to find reliable time series data on irrigated land in the state to
develop a more extensive multiple regression model and from the interviews with the WRD
officials and engineers it was found that the growth in irrigated land solely depends on the
funds allotted and the manpower that is with the department.
Therefore, it is assumed that no other variable in the past has influenced the expansion of
irrigated land other than available funds and manpower resources. There are wide
discrepancies between available data from different sources. Therefore, we have used data
from the Agriculture Census conducted every 5 years from 1970-71 to 2000-01 to undertake
trend analysis. However, this leaves us with very few data points to accurately project the
future land under irrigation. Looking at the past trend of the land under irrigation in
Arunachal Pradesh it can be seen the trend is almost linear with very slight variation.
Therefore, we have fitted a linear function on the times series data and projected till 2030-31.
The R-square for the linear fit is 0.91 reflecting the good fit of the linear nature of the past
trends. The projected area for the year 2030-31, under gross irrigation given the past pace of
expansion is estimated to be 68,500 hectares.
70000
60000
50000
Area (in ha)
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2000-2001 2010-2011 2020-2021 2030-2031
67
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
68
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
Moreover, given the minimal exploitation of groundwater potential, it is assumed that most of
the irrigation in the state in 2030-31 will be dependent on surface flow irrigation. The
detailed summary sheet of irrigated, rainfed and types of cropped area was developed to
estimate the crop water reequipment for the future. The table shows the district wise yield
under rain-fed and irrigated agriculture lands. The yield is comparatively better by 5000
kg/ha in irrigated lands that the rain-fed.
Water potential required has been derived from water required by crops cultivated under
rainfed conditions. Therefore, the existing water potential represents the water requirement of
crops cultivated in irrigated areas. Currently, the total crop water requirement for the State is
16254.75 MCM which is projected to increase to 20073.76 MCM by 2021. The present crop
water potential created in the State is 3697.99 MCM. Thus, it can be concluded from the table
that a total water potential of 16375.77 MCM is to be created in the State to fulfil the
requirement of crops and to provide assured irrigation facilities to farmers of the State
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Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
Kurung
6 13954 3034 13365 753.33 241.38 878.09 636.71
Kumey
7 Lohit 67807 5419 62182 2542.59 418.96 4085.36 3666.40
Lower Dibang
8 39127 3319 35641 2257.16 218.07 2341.64 2123.57
Valley
Lower
9 20964 6430 13525 825.90 422.49 888.59 466.10
Subansiri
10 Pampum Pare 20410 5030 14142 908.58 339.23 929.11 589.88
11 Tawang 8969 1122 7847 272.53 73.67 504.64 430.97
12 Tirap 19114 1074 17829 1122.24 84.42 1171.34 1086.92
13 Upper Siang 11968 1571 10113 567.24 121.89 664.43 542.54
Upper
14 13328 1881 10393 444.34 205.17 682.82 477.65
Subansiri
15 West Kameng 13997 2353 12085 471.46 154.59 793.95 639.36
16 West Siang 29055 4810 24090 1390.58 420.78 1582.67 1161.89
Total 352876 49333 305704 16254.75 3697.99 20073.76 16375.77
70
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
5.2 Domestic
The Government of Arunachal Pradesh has been doing the endeavours to ensure adequate
potable water and sanitation facilities to the rural people. The responsibility of planning and
implementation of drinking water and sanitation programmes is with Public Health
Engineering Department (PHED). The department is showing a consistent emphasis on not
only rural water supply and sanitation but also on the quality of drinking water and
environmental sanitation. Although the amount of rainfall in Arunachal Pradesh is high about
the water-holding capacity of the soil in the narrow foothill belt is very low. The torrential
rains wash away the top soil on the hill slopes which has further been intensified by
continued deforestation and another reason is jhum cultivation. Tanks, ponds etc. are almost
negligible in number and the rainwater quickly runs down the slopes and thereafter through
innumerable swift-flowing rivers and rivulets to the plains of Assam. The table below shows
the number of handpumps, point sources and piped connections in the state. Papum Pare,
Kurung Kumey, West Siang, Lohit, tirap, East siang,and Changlang covers 62% of total
population. For Lower Dibang Valley, East Siang and Tawang, the no. of piped connections
to households is very low in comparison to other districts. East Kameng, Tirap, Kurung
Kumey and Lohit have less no. of handpumps in with respect to rural population they
accommodate.
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Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
Subansiri
15 West Kameng 70459 14646 525 767 240 0 5.66
16 West Siang 112629 17360 687 1202 437 223 9.04
Total 1205283 220772 7582 13206 3612 597 100
Status of access, coverage & slippages (if any) of drinking water supply are provision for the
rural population. This includes the water requirement by the households for the purposes such
as drinking, cooking, bathing, lawn sprinkling, gardening, sanitary purposes, etc. The amount
of domestic water consumption per person shall vary according to the living conditions. The
total domestic water demand shall be equal to the total population multiplied by the desirable
level of per capita domestic consumption. It has been assumed that per capita daily water
requirement of people residing in urban areas of the State is 140 LPCD (litres per capita per
day) and for population in rural areas, the daily per capita water requirement is 120 litres. As
the last population census was done in 2011, the actual population of the State in 2016 is not
readily available. Considering the base population of the State as per the Census 2011, the
projected population in 2021 can be assessed by applying the last decadal growth rate of
26.03%. Using the above norms, the annual gross domestic water demand for 2021 for the
projected level of population in Arunachal Pradesh would be 78.08 MCM.
72
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
the actual decadal growth rate of each district in 2011 Census has been reckoned. In the hilly
catchments of the upstream of Arunachal Pradesh plains, natural springs and dug wells are
generally the preferred means of fulfilling the needs of freshwater for the present population.
In hilly areas, most of the drinking water is harnessed from springs, streams, rivers, ponds
and natural water bodies. However, major portion of the domestic water is harnessed from
ground water, predominantly through shallow tube wells and dug wells. Although there is
abundant surface water in Arunachal Pradesh, ground water continues to play a significant
role in meeting the water demands of most communities in the State, especially those in the
rural areas, with tube wells and dug wells as the most common means to access water.
5.3 Livestock
The 19th Livestock Census, the last full census exercise, was undertaken in 2012. However,
in the year 2016 there were 2759494 numbers of livestock in Arunachal Pradesh. It has been
assumed that the existing water potential is equal to present water demand of livestock. Thus,
the water potential to be created implies the quantum of water availability to be created to
meet the water demand by the livestock in 2021.
600
500
Population (in Millian)
400
300
200
100
0
1988 1992 1997 2003 2007 2012
Cattle Buffalo
Sheep Pigs
Mithun Yak
Donkey/Horse/Mules Dzo- Dzomo
Dog Rabbit
73
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
The species number of different animals in the state observed since 1988 is given above. The
number species of buffalo and sheep has greatly reduced since 1988 to 2012. While there is
decrease in number of Donkey species, there is high increase in Mithun breed.
In the year 2016 there were 2759494 numbers of livestock in Arunachal Pradesh. It has been
assumed that the existing water potential is equal to present water demand of livestock. Thus,
the water potential to be created implies the quantum of water availability to be created to
meet the water demand by the livestock in 2021.
74
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
75
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
The livestock water requirement of the State has been assessed district wise considering per
capita daily water requirement for cows/buffaloes and other large animals as 65 L, goats/pigs
6 L and Poultry 0.25 L. Thus, water demand for livestock of the State during 2021 is
expected to be 31.53 MCM as compared to the present demand of 23.41 MCM and, hence,
the estimated water potential to be created in the State for its livestock population is 11.75
MCM in addition to the present created potential of 19.78 MCM. The district-wise livestock
water demand for the State has been assessed in Table below.
The livestock water requirement of the State has been assessed district wise considering per
capita daily water requirement for cows/buffaloes and other large animals as 65 L, goats/pigs
6 L and Poultry 0.25 L. Thus, water demand for livestock of the State during 2021 is
expected to be 31.53 MCM as compared to the present demand of 23.41 MCM and, hence,
the estimated water potential to be created in the State for its livestock population is 11.75
MCM in addition to the present created potential of 19.78 MCM. The district-wise livestock
water demand for the State has been assessed.
5.4 Industrial
Arunachal Pradesh is rich in natural resources but due to difficult terrain, inadequate
infrastructural facilities and varying climatic conditions, the state could not develop much in
76
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
the industrial sector of its economy. However, the resources, policy incentives & climate in
state support investments in mining & mineral products (including cement), tissue culture &
floriculture, plantation crops (tea, rubber, etc.) & agro-based industries. Based on the
available information collected from DIPs in each of the 18 districts in Arunachal Pradesh,
the total requirement of water by the industries has been assessed and shown, district-wise.
The total assessed water potential to be created for industries is 4.46 MCM. This data is
obtained from PMKSY state irrigation Report. Power or electricity is the most convenient
and versatile form of energy. It plays a key role in the industrial, agricultural and commercial
sectors of the economy and is also the most crucial source of supplying domestic energy
requirements. The demand has, therefore, been growing at a rate faster than other forms of
energy. The demand of power met mainly from Grid Power, diesel and hydro generation. As
of June 2016, Arunachal Pradesh had a total installed power generation capacity of 257.86
MW. Hydro energy (97.57 MW) accounted for around 37.84% of Arunachal Pradesh
installed power generation capacity. Though power plays a vital role in the development of
the state, Arunachal Pradesh is facing the problem of power shortage. The state continues to
be deficit in electric energy. Water demand for power generation is zero in the state as there
are no thermal power plants in the state
77
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
5.5 Institutional
Medical Institutions
Inhospitable terrain and low population density make redering of health services rather
difficult in Arunachal Pradesh. The inventory of medical institutions is taken from different
sources like state profile, website and documents available on website of government
departments in Arunachal. The medical institutions are categorized under various categories
including government, family welfare clinics, medical colleges etc. The number of beds in
each category of medical institution is taken from state department web-portals/documents.
The water demand for each bed is taken from government norms and according to population
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Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
Educational
Arunachal Pradesh is lagging behind in the field of higher education in comparison with the
country and the north-eastern region. Non-availability if proper infrastructure facilities in
colleges and university due to shortage of fund are the main problems for achieving the goal
of higher education. The directorate of higher and technical oversee the establishment and
maintenance of collegiate education consisting of eleven colleges and technical education in
the state. Due to paucity of funds even the basic minimum infrastructure viz., academic
buildings, lecture halls, hostels, residential buildings, water supply, road, sports facility and
health care are yet to develop. Any such development needs constant water supply. Dedicated
allocation water is required for utilities, canteens, gardening, sports complex and activities.
According to the 2001 census, the literacy rate is 68.4%; there are however, concerns over the
quality of education, as the relatively high literacy level has not translated into high rate of
employment or productivity. Table below depicts no. of different types of educational
institutions in the state. The table also lists the number of students in each type of institution.
There is only 1 university in state and 25 colleges. The water consumption for each
educational institution is calculated based on per student water consumption rates in
L/day/student taken from government norms and research publication.
79
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
80
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
Accordingly, the water demand as per existing educational infrastructure comes out to be
7.13 MCM for entre state. The Papum pare, Anjaw and Lohit shows maximum water
demand. Dibang Valley, Tirap, Tawang, Upper Siang, Lower Dibang Valley and West
Kameng. It is to be noticed that consumption rate for each student gradually decreases from
pre-primary to higher education institutions. While in some districts, the number of
institutions is more, it is the strength of students which dictates its water demand.
Forest is the most important resource in Arunachal Pradesh with the predominantly large
tribal population living in close association with forests and highly dependent on it. Carbon
sequestration of forests of Arunachal Pradesh is very significant in India. Apart from
projected vulnerability due to climate change, the forests in Arunachal Pradesh also face
several threats and biotic pressures in the form of shifting cultivation, grazing, forest fires,
encroachment, commercial plantations, human-wildlife conflicts and illegal extraction of
forest products along interstate borders. According to SAPCC Arunachal Pradesh 2030, the
rainfall is projected to decrease which makes role of forest in water resources availability
81
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
more important. Forest affects hydrological regimes through evapotranspiration and holding
under the soil. In this study, SWAT model is used to calculate ET for two landuse classes,
namely 2005 & 2012 and Future climate projection 2030. Forest area in each district is taken
from state forest department. The area under Anjaw and Lohit is not available due to division
of two districts. The total forest area in a district is fractioned out using total district area, and
then ET is calculated as water use.
The table shows total ET and water consumption under forest category in each district. The
water consumption is calculated for two periods, 2005 and 2012 respectively. The change
between two is reported. The state reflects positive value of ET overall, and shows increased
ET in 2012, in comparison to 2005. The water consumption for different districts shows
negative and positive values, both. The change in consumption might be a function of various
happenings, 1) decrease of dense forest; 2) conversion of dense forest into open forest or
degraded forest; 3) the degraded forest converted into open forest 4) Open forest converted
into dense forest and 5) Forest plantation. The negative values show decrease in water
consumption, due to dense forest converted into either open or degraded whereas increase in
consumption due to either degraded forest converted into open forest or forest plantation. The
under the same land use practice (2012) future water consumption was increased in 2030
which function of future rainfall and temperature.
82
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
83
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
The resources which requires water as consumption and future demand of each districts was
summarized with state average. The standards scores of each consumer sectors was
calculated from the state average value. All the districts have assigned the standards score for
each resource variables. These water consumers further dived into five groups:
1) Land and population: In this group district wise population, rural population, total
district area and agriculture area was compared with state average.
2) Domestic and livestock: In this group district wise house cover with pipe connection,
population covered with drinking water, ground water availability for domestic uses
and total number of livestock were considered.
3) Agriculture sector: This groups data was summarised with net sown area, total
agriculture area, rain fed area, horticulture area and production of agriculture.
4) Irrigation status: All districts was scored with respect to state average in the various
component of irrigation supports like Surface irrigation, Groundwater irrigation, Net
irrigated area, Canal irrigated area, Pond irrigated area, Net groundwater availability
for irrigation and Gross irrigated area.
5) Medical and Educational sector: Four parameters was evaluated consideting the water
accounting for this sector. These four parameters was total number of medical
institution, numbers of beds, Total numbers of Educational institutes and numbers of
students.
These are demand sides variables which contributes the regional variation of resource
distribution, utilization, current demands and supply.
84
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
85
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
86
Water resources: Utilizations, Consumption and Future demand
87
Sectoral Water Budget: Potential created and utilized
The present water demand corresponds to total water delivered to a sector for specific use.
There are not many big water consuming industries in many districts, while the total water
allocated or delivered to industries sums up to 1.07 MCM. While the largest industrial
demand is in East Siang district, it is very less compared to the water demand in other sectors.
In health sector and education sector the demand is 1.53 and 7.13 MCM respectively.
88
Sectoral Water Budget: Potential created and utilized
Existing water potential here refers to the amount of maximum water which can be tapped for
particular use or consumption by creating or already existing infrastructures. For example,
districts where few industrial setup is already there, it can harness up to 5.49 MCM of water,
while in section 6.1 if you may see, the total present demand is only 1.07 MCM. But that is
not the case with agriculture, as the present demand is much higher than the existing
potential.
89
Sectoral Water Budget: Potential created and utilized
3000
Existing Potential Existing Demand
2000
1000
Lower…
0
East Siang
Tirap
West Kameng
Dibang Valley
Tawang
East Kameng
Anjaw
Upper Subansiri
Lohit
Changlang
West Siang
Pampum Pare
Lower Subansiri
Kurung Kumey
Upper Siang
Figure 6-3: Differences between existing potential and current demand (in MCM)
The graph above shows the difference between existing potential and current demand in
Agriculture sector. The largest gap is found in Lohit, Lower Dibang Valley, Changlang and
Tirap. This gives a possibility of more infrastructures development and technological
innovations in agriculture.
The future scenarios can only be predicted. It is difficult to trace exact patterns of growth in
different sectors, but based on historical datasets the future possibilities are explored. While
calculating future water demand for livestock, previous livestock census is studied for growth
rate, and that factor is then used to calculate future possible growth statistics, assuming
90
Sectoral Water Budget: Potential created and utilized
business as usual scenario. For agriculture sector, Major medium irrigation plans under
proposal are considered to get the value of agricultural expansion, also, crops which are
currently sown, their water requirement is known and multiplied times its expected growth.
For forest it was assumed that no forest degradation and deforestation activities in future.
91
Sectoral Water Budget: Potential created and utilized
The potential to be created is simply a difference between existing water demand and future
water demand in respective sectors. The graph shown above reflects upon the gaps in existing
resources and future requirement which needs infrastructure development, technological
advancement to wisely tap natural water for fulfilling future requirements. For domestic,
industries and livestock, the water requirement will rise with population and development
growth, and piped connections availability, freshwater availability, rainwater harvesting,
water pollution treatment plants etc can be addressed to fill the potential gap. While for
forest, with changing climate and altering rainfall pattern, it is crucial to have studies on
environmental flow, and optimum flow in streams so as to support forest ecosystems. West
Siang, Changlang, Lower Dibang Valley and Lohit district needs more attention for covering
the largest gap in agriculture sector. While in domestic it is Upper Subansiri, Lower Subansiri
and Papum Pare districts which shows highest gap and insecurity of water demand fulfilment
of future.
92
Sectoral Water Budget: Potential created and utilized
93
Sectoral Water Budget: Potential created and utilized
Lower
Dibang East East Kurung Lower Pampum Upper Upper West West
District Anjaw Changlang Lohit Dibang Tawang Tirap Total
Valley Kameng Siang Kumey Subans Pare Siang Subans Kameng Siang
Valley
Present
10982.67 10237.11 27968.77 9246.95 14046.25 23038.09 10207.98 10685.38 9368.93 8948.70 3457.98 5046.01 20909.93 21980.00 12244.17 23981.20 218652.97
Availability
availability
Future
19729.33 15570.80 31292.37 10837.98 9966.17 18459.64 8083.21 13078.37 12297.96 7789.08 6766.51 5659.89 18612.80 20903.26 19326.53 28498.70 246872.61
availability
Present
556.29 1815.94 248.88 792.34 1285.34 753.33 2542.59 2257.16 825.9 908.58 272.53 1122.24 567.24 444.34 471.46 1390.58 16254.75
demand
Agriculture
Existing
75.56 240.34 39.07 115.77 526.62 241.38 418.96 218.07 422.49 339.23 73.67 84.42 121.89 205.17 154.59 420.78 3697.99
Potential
Future
660.01 1968.82 515.96 864.62 1541.7 878.09 4085.36 2341.64 888.59 929.11 504.64 1171.34 664.43 682.82 793.95 1582.67 20073.76
Demand
Potential to
584.46 1728.49 476.89 748.85 1015.08 636.71 3666.4 2123.57 466.1 589.88 430.97 1086.92 542.54 477.65 639.36 1161.89 16375.77
be Created
Present
0.11 7.97 0.38 4.63 4.2 7.11 7.16 2.54 3.53 9.79 2.57 4.5 1.86 3.23 4.03 4.23 67.84
demand
Existing
Domestic
0.11 7.97 0.38 4.63 4.2 7.11 7.16 2.54 3.53 9.79 2.57 4.5 1.86 3.23 4.03 4.23 67.84
Potential
Future
0.22 8.55 0.42 5.38 4.49 9.69 7.76 2.73 4.48 12.18 2.97 4.65 1.9 4.14 4.11 4.41 78.08
Demand
Potential to
0.11 0.58 0.04 0.75 0.29 2.58 0.6 0.19 0.95 2.39 0.4 0.15 0.04 0.91 0.08 0.18 10.24
be Created
Present
0.04 1.18 0.16 1.65 1.41 2.56 2.34 1.29 2.28 3.61 0.97 0.44 2.14 0.87 0.63 1.83 23.41
demand
Existing
Livestock
0.03 1.04 0.16 1.65 0.31 2.56 2.18 1 1.85 2.4 0.97 0.44 2.14 0.86 0.63 1.56 19.78
Potential
Future
0.08 1.04 0.19 1.9 1.72 3.07 3.09 1.39 3.28 6.76 1.05 0.49 3.64 0.95 0.65 2.23 31.53
Demand
Potential to
0.05 0 0.03 0.25 1.41 0.51 0.91 0.39 1.43 4.36 0.08 0.05 1.5 0.09 0.02 0.67 11.75
be Created
Present
0.02 0.57 0.33 0.03 0.12 0.0015 1.07
demand
Existing
Industries
94
Sectoral Water Budget: Potential created and utilized
Lower
Dibang East East Kurung Lower Pampum Upper Upper West West
District Anjaw Changlang Lohit Dibang Tawang Tirap Total
Valley Kameng Siang Kumey Subans Pare Siang Subans Kameng Siang
Valley
Present
0.14 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.12 0.09 0.14 0.09 0.09 0.2 0.03 0.1 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.13 1.53
demand
Existing
Medical
Potential
Future
Demand
Potential to
be Created
Present
0.66 0.51 0.03 0.39 0.58 0.42 0.67 0.26 0.48 1.15 0.17 0.09 0.2 0.5 0.37 0.65 7.13
demand
Existing
Education
Potential
Future
Demand
Potential to
be Created
Present
1355.4 1371.51 941.66 1264.54 1394.38 1966.04 872.76 979 1022.61 1184.7 284.78 774.2 1629.44 1859.91 1793.07 2184.6 21709.68
Uses
Existing
Forestry
potential
Future Uses 2064.82 1857.75 2158.26 1628.57 1593.84 2377.34 1130.36 1570.07 1245.28 1372.9 399.84 738.01 1964.11 2449.36 2663.64 2966.83 28598.93
Potential to
be created
95
Climate Change and future
The objective of producing high-resolution datasets that allow for generating quality
information on the changes in the climate in high altitudinal reaches of the study areas. TERI
has generated scenario information for selected 4.5 RCP and assessed the changes in the near
future climate. The dynamic downscaling of climate data is being carried out for two time
periods, one in the past and the other for a future time period, 1996-2005 and 2020-2029
respectively. Ten years baseline (1996-2005) of control simulations and 10 years of future
simulations (2020-2029) of future simulation has been completed using CCSM4. The
Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 4 is a coupled climate model for
simulating the earth's climate system (http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/ccsm4.0/) with
initial and boundary conditions. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has
been used for the dynamic downscaling of climate projections from CCSM4. The
advantages of the WRF model over other RCMs (Regional Climate Model) is its
portability to different computing architectures, efficient use of large parameter space
(such as different cumulus schemes, micro-physics schemes, radiation schemes,
planetary boundary layer schemes etc.), it was found that there are 10224 combinations
of WRF that can be used for both climate and weather research.
Figure 7-1: Temperature Difference (in °C) and Precipitation differences (in%) from
baseline (1996-2005) to future simulations (2020-2029)
96
Climate Change and future
Model scenarios have been generated over the South Asian region with 30km resolution
(like CORDEX domain) to understand the near future climate change (rainfall,
temperature changes etc.). The horizontal resolution is much finer than the CORDEX
simulations.
97
Climate Change and future
Further basic variables (Rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed humidity
and solar radiation) have extracted from the future scenario to provide input into the
hydrological model SWAT to estimate the future surface water changes with respect to
climate change.
The % of runoff calculated in two scenario, First land practice change: change in land
practices during 2005 and 2012 to see the impact of land practices over the runoff and second
Climate parameters change: the change of future climatic parameters extracted from
climate model over 2012 land practices to see the change of runoff due to climate change.
Table 7-1 Change of runoff in Catchment due to land practices and climate change
% of Runoff
ID Code Catchment Change in Climate
2005 2012 2030
Land Practice Change
1 3A2C Dhansiri River 6.33 1.84 -4.48 4.92 3.07
2 3A2D Twang Chu 26.97 20.38 -6.60 35.18 14.81
3 3A3A Bhareli River 3.57 3.04 -0.53 2.05 -0.99
4 3A3B Bishom River 6.59 1.97 -4.62 5.64 3.67
5 3A3C Kameng River 10.54 5.78 -4.76 14.80 9.02
6 3A3D Brahmaputra River 21.03 25.05 4.01 0.90 -24.15
7 3A3E Disang River 15.38 28.28 12.90 29.25 0.97
8 3A4A Dikrang (Subansiri) River 4.20 5.35 1.16 6.69 1.34
9 3A4B R B Subansiri River 9.65 9.28 -0.37 9.36 0.08
10 3A4C L B Subansiri River 10.78 12.18 1.40 7.34 -4.84
11 3A5A Brahmaputra River 26.28 26.51 0.23 18.09 -8.42
12 3A5B Dihang River 23.65 30.17 6.51 29.95 -0.22
13 3A5C Siang River 34.58 35.74 1.16 33.67 -2.07
14 3A5D Siyom River 11.01 12.53 1.52 8.84 -3.69
15 3A5F Tirap River 9.14 10.28 1.15 14.95 4.67
16 3D4A Lohit River 18.98 16.35 -2.63 15.74 -0.61
17 3D4B Tellu / Lohit River 37.72 26.53 -11.19 34.26 7.74
18 3D4C Lower Dibang River 45.88 50.34 4.46 48.62 -1.72
19 3D4D Upper Dibang River 59.52 69.98 10.46 55.72 -14.26
Over All 20.10 20.61 0.51 19.79 -0.82
Runoff of Brahmaputra, Upper Dibang and L B Subansari river catchment will decreased due
to climate change while Lohit, Twang chu, Kameng, Dhansiri and Bishom River decreased
their runoff due to land practices. Runoff will increased due to climate change in the
catchment of Twang chu, Kemeng Bishom and Dhansiri rivers.
98
Climate Change and future
Table 7-2 Change of runoff in districts due to land practices and climate change
% of Runoff
Code Districts Change in Land Climate
2005 2012 2030
Practice Change
1 Anjaw 41.89 29.41 -12.48 37.11 7.69
2 Changlang 17.68 12.77 -4.90 15.53 2.76
3 Dibang Valley 53.10 60.07 6.97 52.28 -7.79
4 East Kameng 9.45 5.37 -4.09 13.37 8.00
5 East Siang 28.62 29.13 0.52 25.53 -3.61
6 Kurung Kumey 11.06 10.45 -0.61 11.08 0.62
7 Lohit 19.51 18.78 -0.72 15.82 -2.97
8 Lower Dibang Valley 31.96 36.96 5.00 40.14 3.18
9 Lower Subansiri 4.46 5.27 0.80 6.39 1.12
10 Papum Pare 3.67 4.95 1.28 5.41 0.46
11 Tawang 26.97 20.38 -6.60 35.18 14.81
12 Tirap 12.35 23.28 10.93 23.90 0.62
13 Upper Siang 32.63 36.03 3.40 34.10 -1.93
14 Upper Subansiri 12.50 14.50 2.00 8.24 -6.26
15 West Kameng 6.39 2.14 -4.25 5.15 3.01
16 West Siang 7.67 8.48 0.80 6.97 -1.51
Over All 19.99 19.87 -0.12 21.01 1.14
Similar to catchment runoff of various districts was affected by land practices. Low runoff
due to change in practices observed in Anjaw, Changlang, East and west Kameng and
Tawang districts where as due to climate change low runoff was observed in Dibang valley
and Upper Subansiri. High runoff due to climate change was observed in Tawang, Anjaw,
East and west Kemang districts.
Two time land use and land cover practices 2005 and 2012 was simulated under present
climatic condition (1985-2014). The annual water balance under 2005 land practice and 2012
land practices was calculated. It was observed that over all water volume increased by
11389.05 MCM. The effect of land practices not uniformly increased the water volume in all
districts and catchments. Water volume decreased in Lohit, Tawang chu, Bishom, Kameng,
Dhansiri and Bhareli catchements. Similarly Anjaw, Changlang, East and West Kameng and
Tawang district associated with above catchment decreased annual water volume due to land
practices change between two years 2005 and 2012. This need to formulated with best and
optimum land practices to control the water balance as per the state requirement and its
association with neighbouring state.
99
Climate Change and future
Table 7-3 Water balance difference due to Land practices in the catchments
Precipitation (in mm) Snow melt (in mm) Water Yield (in mm) Volume (in MCM)
ID Catchment
2005 2012 Change 2005 2012 Change 2005 2012 Change 2005 2012 Change
1 Dhansiri River 3464.70 2189.90 -1274.80 60.10 0.00 -60.10 3081.97 1892.94 -1189.03 2809.93 1725.85 -1084.08
2 Twang Chu 2955.08 1931.10 -1023.97 248.45 186.68 -61.77 2456.22 1592.07 -864.14 5757.93 3732.18 -2025.75
3 Bhareli River 3061.50 2701.74 -359.76 30.29 0.00 -30.29 2673.27 2337.81 -335.46 6192.44 5415.38 -777.06
4 Bishom River 3616.08 1890.93 -1725.14 70.48 80.67 10.19 3191.08 1573.07 -1618.01 11139.53 5491.32 -5648.21
5 Kameng River 3376.27 2483.86 -892.41 148.64 8.37 -140.27 2966.25 2133.19 -833.06 11946.74 8591.54 -3355.20
6 Brahmaputra River 2451.13 3194.1 742.98 0.00 0.00 0.00 1122.71 2786.09 1663.38 678.97 1684.91 1005.94
7 Disang River 2402.02 3242.66 840.64 135.78 0.00 -135.78 1956.87 2622.06 665.20 2648.32 3548.57 900.25
Dikrang (Subansiri)
8 2936.56 3804.78 868.22 11.64 0.31 -11.33 2526.50 3316.07 789.57 11344.15 14889.36 3545.21
River
9 R B Subansiri River 3147.38 3491.24 343.86 123.57 4.70 -118.86 2781.77 3138.56 356.79 23020.56 25973.14 2952.58
10 L B Subansiri River 2897.86 3442.03 544.18 115.57 113.19 -2.38 2529.95 3083.29 553.33 18411.54 22438.36 4026.82
11 Brahmaputra River 3150.00 3287.63 137.63 81.89 0.00 -81.89 2840.35 2860.63 20.28 6520.87 6567.44 46.57
12 Dihang River 2778.71 3377.39 598.68 115.35 52.24 -63.11 2466.09 2945.54 479.45 9662.66 11541.24 1878.59
13 Siang River 3004.82 3852.02 847.20 437.21 233.33 -203.87 2654.95 3419.34 764.39 16135.11 20780.59 4645.48
14 Siyom River 3003.75 3611.66 607.91 228.82 282.28 53.45 2644.74 3226.16 581.42 15601.69 19031.56 3429.88
15 Tirap River 2629.18 3030.01 400.83 143.36 0.00 -143.36 2214.61 2415.94 201.32 4368.08 4765.17 397.09
16 Lohit River 2504.84 2446.98 -57.86 462.69 9.42 -453.27 2175.84 2109.28 -66.56 13659.08 13241.22 -417.86
17 Tellu / Lohit River 2432.27 2070.26 -362.01 740.81 24.26 -716.55 2144.43 1707.37 -437.06 20335.84 16191.16 -4144.68
18 Lower Dibang River 2527.41 3083.54 556.13 860.32 648.66 -211.66 2245.04 2799.95 554.92 19049.97 23758.64 4708.67
19 Upper Dibang River 2487.38 3836.89 1349.51 886.70 1337.03 450.32 2209.22 3628.83 1419.61 9371.72 15393.83 6022.11
Total 207263.93 218652.97 11389.05
100
Climate Change and future
Table 7-4 Water balance difference due to Land practices in the districts
Precipitation (in mm) Snow melt (in mm) Water Yield (in mm) Total water availability (in MCM)
ID District
2005 2012 Change 2005 2012 Change 2005 2012 Change 2005 2012 Change
1 Anjaw 2419.87 1939.06 -480.80 815.36 29.89 -785.48 2134.20 1573.00 -561.20 14900.95 10982.67 -3918.28
2 Changlang 2507.66 2383.56 -124.11 489.66 7.48 -482.18 2172.71 2019.55 -153.16 11013.48 10237.11 -776.37
3 Dibang Valley 2518.49 3362.17 843.68 974.10 998.60 24.50 2244.11 3121.86 877.75 20104.98 27968.77 7863.80
4 East Kameng 3289.55 2592.03 -697.52 136.88 7.28 -129.61 2884.37 2236.80 -647.56 11923.97 9246.95 -2677.02
5 East Siang 3050.95 3440.54 389.60 167.84 7.71 -160.13 2737.90 2996.85 258.95 12832.55 14046.25 1213.70
6 Kurung Kumey 3242.30 3584.56 342.26 148.52 6.10 -142.42 2871.24 3226.17 354.93 20503.53 23038.09 2534.56
7 Lohit 2525.28 2669.02 143.74 386.25 6.39 -379.86 2210.89 2309.50 98.61 9772.13 10207.98 435.85
8 Lower Dibang Valley 2541.69 2988.32 446.62 405.51 133.48 -272.03 2234.98 2625.40 390.42 9096.37 10685.38 1589.01
9 Lower Subansiri 2955.61 3524.34 568.73 28.66 0.00 -28.66 2579.40 3129.24 549.83 7722.73 9368.93 1646.20
10 Papum Pare 2765.90 3598.79 832.89 11.82 0.56 -11.27 2364.89 3112.59 747.70 6799.06 8948.70 2149.64
11 Tawang 2955.08 1931.10 -1023.97 248.45 186.68 -61.77 2456.22 1592.07 -864.14 5334.90 3457.98 -1876.92
12 Tirap 2437.36 3195.61 758.26 96.99 0.00 -96.99 1977.60 2581.08 603.47 3866.22 5046.01 1179.79
13 Upper Siang 2918.96 3806.24 887.28 383.61 244.41 -139.19 2567.00 3379.11 812.11 15884.57 20909.93 5025.36
14 Upper Subansiri 2899.88 3482.35 582.48 127.33 125.55 -1.78 2529.77 3125.71 595.94 17789.33 21980.00 4190.67
15 West Kameng 3553.25 1972.26 -1580.98 58.30 61.47 3.16 3135.08 1649.71 -1485.37 23268.58 12244.17 -11024.41
16 West Siang 2975.00 3523.80 548.80 211.79 262.91 51.12 2623.71 3137.67 513.96 20053.04 23981.20 3928.16
Total 207263.93 218652.97 11389.05
101
Climate Change and future
To calculate the impact of future climate on water balance of the area, the future climate
parameter was simulated over present land use practices and the water balance for the year
2030 was calculated in SWAT. The input of all climatic parameters was obtained from RCM
model under RCP 4.7scenario.
Figure 7-4: Precipitation and water yield during 2012 and 2030
It is observed that overall 22217.37 MCM water volumes will increase due to change in
climatic variables. Some catchment and associated districts will also produce low water
volume compared to present climatic condition. The water volume will decreased in future in
the catchment of - Bhareli river, Brahmaputra river, R B Subansiri river, Dihang river, Siang
river and upper Dihang associated with following districts- East siang, Kurung Kumey, Lohit,
Papum pare, Upper Siang and Upper Subansiri.
The change in volume either increases or decreases situation requires a better land practices
measures to mitigate future climatic condition of water resources.
102
Climate Change and future
103
Climate Change and future
Table 7-5 Water balance difference due to Climate Change in the catchments
Precipitation (in mm) Snow melt (in mm) Water Yield (in mm) Volume (in MCM)
ID Name
2012 2030 Change 2012 2030 Change 2012 2030 Change 2012 2030 Change
1 Dhansiri River 2189.90 3287.75 1097.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 1892.94 2880.19 987.25 1725.85 2625.85 899.99
2 Twang Chu 1931.10 3568.70 1637.59 186.68 297.04 110.36 1592.07 3115.33 1523.26 3732.18 7303.13 3570.95
3 Bhareli River 2701.74 2192.99 -508.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 2337.81 1697.46 -640.36 5415.38 4269.58 -1145.79
4 Bishom River 1890.93 3369.38 1478.44 80.67 170.67 89.99 1573.07 2912.61 1339.54 5491.32 9906.13 4414.81
5 Kameng River 2483.86 3103.10 619.24 8.37 164.19 155.82 2133.19 2680.86 547.68 8591.54 11097.32 2505.78
6 Brahmaputra River 3194.1 1597.90 -1596.20 0 0.00 0.00 2786.09 1145.33 -1640.75 1684.91 616.67 -1068.24
7 Disang River 3242.66 3287.50 44.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 2622.06 2731.87 109.81 3548.57 3509.29 -39.28
8 Dikrang (Subansiri) River 3804.78 3971.43 166.64 0.31 6.30 5.99 3316.07 3416.03 99.95 14889.36 14842.63 -46.73
9 R B Subansiri River 3491.24 3318.10 -173.14 4.70 79.90 75.20 3138.56 2902.26 -236.30 25973.14 24793.32 -1179.82
10 L B Subansiri River 3442.03 3463.61 21.58 113.19 54.64 -58.55 3083.29 3010.71 -72.58 22438.36 23488.73 1050.37
11 Brahmaputra River 3287.63 2743.73 -543.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 2860.63 2271.93 -588.71 6567.44 4833.82 -1733.63
12 Dihang River 3377.39 3014.70 -362.68 52.24 0.00 -52.24 2945.54 2518.88 -426.66 11541.24 9553.88 -1987.36
13 Siang River 3852.02 3353.46 -498.56 233.33 14.95 -218.39 3419.34 2881.79 -537.56 20780.59 16877.26 -3903.32
14 Siyom River 3611.66 4174.81 563.14 282.28 95.11 -187.17 3226.16 3697.44 471.28 19031.56 24478.68 5447.12
15 Tirap River 3030.01 4593.30 1563.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 2415.94 3988.05 1572.12 4765.17 7444.00 2678.83
16 Lohit River 2446.98 2902.23 455.24 9.42 0.00 -9.42 2109.28 2444.90 335.62 13241.22 15952.63 2711.41
17 Tellu / Lohit River 2070.26 3145.98 1075.73 24.26 85.47 61.21 1707.37 2672.79 965.42 16191.16 24474.74 8283.58
18 Lower Dibang River 3083.54 4067.55 984.01 648.66 175.79 -472.87 2799.95 3539.13 739.18 23758.64 27758.18 3999.54
19 Upper Dibang River 3836.89 3596.28 -240.61 1337.03 230.26 -1106.77 3628.83 3091.26 -537.57 15393.83 12765.51 -2628.31
Total 218652.97 240870.35 22217.37
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Table 7-6 Water balance difference due to Climate Change in the districts
Precipitation (in mm) Snow melt (in mm) Water Yeild (in mm) Total water availability (in MCM)
ID District
2012 2030 Change 2012 2030 Change 2012 2030 Change 2012 2030 Change
1 Anjaw 1939.06 3302.17 1363.11 29.89 105.29 75.40 1573.00 2825.74 1252.74 10982.67 19729.33 8746.66
2 Changlang 2383.56 3557.23 1173.67 7.48 0.00 -7.48 2019.55 3071.77 1052.22 10237.11 15570.80 5333.70
3 Dibang Valley 3362.17 4007.71 645.54 998.60 221.79 -776.82 3121.86 3492.84 370.98 27968.77 31292.37 3323.60
4 East Kameng 2592.03 3053.77 461.73 7.28 142.77 135.49 2236.80 2621.67 384.87 9246.95 10837.98 1591.04
5 East Siang 3440.54 2626.48 -814.07 7.71 0.00 -7.71 2996.85 2126.34 -870.51 14046.25 9966.17 -4080.07
6 Kurung Kumey 3584.56 3004.32 -580.25 6.10 103.65 97.55 3226.17 2585.02 -641.15 23038.09 18459.64 -4578.44
7 Lohit 2669.02 2274.20 -394.81 6.39 0.00 -6.39 2309.50 1828.78 -480.72 10207.98 8083.21 -2124.77
8 Lower Dibang Valley 2988.32 3776.12 787.81 133.48 57.34 -76.15 2625.40 3213.36 587.96 10685.38 13078.37 2392.99
9 Lower Subansiri 3524.34 4578.82 1054.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 3129.24 4107.53 978.30 9368.93 12297.96 2929.03
10 Papum Pare 3598.79 3248.13 -350.66 0.56 11.20 10.64 3112.59 2709.24 -403.35 8948.70 7789.08 -1159.62
11 Tawang 1931.10 3568.70 1637.59 186.68 297.04 110.36 1592.07 3115.33 1523.26 3457.98 6766.51 3308.53
12 Tirap 3195.61 3457.30 261.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 2581.08 2895.09 314.01 5046.01 5659.89 613.89
13 Upper Siang 3806.24 3473.09 -333.15 244.41 19.19 -225.22 3379.11 3007.89 -371.22 20909.93 18612.80 -2297.13
14 Upper Subansiri 3482.35 3424.49 -57.86 125.55 58.60 -66.95 3125.71 2972.59 -153.12 21980.00 20903.26 -1076.74
15 West Kameng 1972.26 3065.43 1093.16 61.47 130.03 68.57 1649.71 2603.95 954.24 12244.17 19326.53 7082.36
16 West Siang 3523.80 4204.19 680.39 262.91 87.35 -175.56 3137.67 3728.73 591.06 23981.20 28498.70 4517.50
Total 218652.97 240870.36 22217.39
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Climate Change and future
The detailed table for existing resources (Agriculture, forest and snow / glacier), present and
future climate based water budget was contracted for each district and catchment. Further a
standard scores was calculated from model outputs giving values for future as well as current
climatic conditions of each catchment and district to benchmark from the state condition. For
this analysis, the landuse is not changed, and only climatic parameters are used as a variable.
To know present situation of climate, historic climatic parameters from IMD is used to run
model. The values obtained across different sub-catchments shows amount of precipitation,
snowmelt, Evapotranspiration and water yield. If looked carefully, it is observed that the
largest catchment Lohit with high forest and agricultural landuse, shows least present
precipitation and water yield. The Disang river catchment shows decrease ET in future.
While Tirap river catchment shows increased precipitation, while there is very little change in
ET. It is interesting to note that catchments with highest forest area shows high future present
and future water yield irrespective of precipitation. In fact the largest catchment shows least
present precipitation in current scenario.
Figure 7-6: Resources and water balance benchmark of each catchment from the state
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Climate Change and future
Figure 7-7: Resources and water balance benchmark of each district from the state
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Climate Change and future
108
Climate Change and future
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Alternative interventions required with respect to Climate change
Flood is a recurring phenomenon in the State due to high annual rainfall and geological
fragility of the region and renders many people homeless, devastate agriculture and disrupt
road communication and other public assets. The magnitude of floods and river bank erosion
problems are increasing every year in the State. An estimated 8155 sq km area of the state is
flood prone. To tackle the flood problems, construction of embankment, spurs and guide
bunds etc. are utmost necessary. Presently, protection and restoration works have been taken
up.
8.2 Forestry
1. The primary cause for forest fragmentation/ thinning of dense forest is shifting
cultivation, grazing and other human intervention. To combat this, other options for
agriculture should be explored by introducing high yield varieties, increasing water
use efficiency and reliable irrigation infrastructure. This needs an analysis of
consumption by irrigation for future population food requirements.
2. To prevent forest fires, unauthorized human intervention should be regulated, also,
fire control measures should be taken.
3. Loss of biodiversity can be protected in two ways, one is to restrict human
interference, and fragmenting the forest, other is to ensure, enough environmental
flow or stream flow across the channels flowing through forests to support the species
survival. Also, Small water bodies, which might have dried up or lost or are
vulnerable to future climatic variability, should be mapped and reserved and
rejuvenated by the forests department under maintenance.
4. As many local tribal are thriving within the green dense forests of Arunachal Pradesh.
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Alternative interventions required with respect to Climate change
It is the urban and advanced people interference which causes the disturbance.
Protected areas should be linked for keeping a large patch undisturbed. Unauthorized
actions within these forest lands should be restricted and regulated accordingly.
5. Forests are primary suppliers of timbers, but in many parts, this happens in a non-
enforced and irregular manner. The Harvesting of timbers and non-timber plants
should be compensated by planting more trees, and water supply to them are to be
ensured.
6. Forest is the most important resource in Arunachal Pradesh with the predominantly
large tribal population. Apart from projected vulnerability due to climate change, the
forests in Arunachal Pradesh also face several threats and biotic pressures in the form
of shifting cultivation, grazing, forest fires, encroachment, commercial plantations,
human-wildlife conflicts and illegal extraction of forest products along interstate
borders with Assam and Nagaland. Identification of priority vulnerable areas and
reduction measurements is a necessity for the state. Fragmented forests should be
taken up for defragmentation measures implementation and rehabilitating the shifting
cultivation. Linking and expanding protected areas should be promoted, this also
requires the type of water sources covered in the region and if they have sufficient
natural flow to suffice the blooming biodiversity and maintain the forest ecosystem in
its best manner.
8.3 Agriculture
1. Shifting cultivation
2. Old crop varieties
3. Poor knowledge of advanced agricultural practices and technologies
4. Irrigation infrastructure reliability
1. The yield of shifting cultivation is very low. The main reason forshifting cultivation is
that farmers are here not very equipped with soil, water and crop enhanced varieties
and supported technologies. To avoid loss of nutrients and save crop loss from
repetitive farming over one land they choose jhum cultivation. The farmers should
have supported by government and research institutions by capacity building and
making them understand the use of new agri-tools. This includes introduction of high
yield varieties, which should be distributed on subsidized rates, micro or sprinkler
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Alternative interventions required with respect to Climate change
irrigation techniques, ensuring continuous water supply in low rain season, also
strengthening water-carrying infrastructure to avoid any water losses. Agriculture is
the main occupation for about 35 percent of the population of Arunachal Pradesh.
Jhum cultivation (Shifting Cultivation) and Terrace farming (Wetland Rice
Cultivation (WRC) are the two major patterns that farmers employ. Jhum is a way of
life in the high-altitude areas. Jhum area productivity is very low (0.7 to 0.8 tonnes/ha
of organic rice against average of 3 tonnes/ha). Jhum/shifting cultivation accounts for
0.11 million hectares and permanent cultivation is about 0.09 million hectares. 17% of
the total cultivated area is under irrigation. Jhum cultivation contributes only about
14% as compared to Terrace farming contribution of 86% of total grain production in
the state. An area of more than 87,500 hectares has been irrigated in Arunachal
Pradesh. Minor Irrigation Census of the State reveals that about 0.12 million-hectare
(about 66.67% of available potential) area is irrigated. The net irrigation area
underutilization is around 51,700 hectares with cropping intensity at the level of
130.56%. Fresh Potential Assessment being done under GIS environment and
ultimate potential are expected to increase to around 0.85 million hectares.
The Command Area Development Water Management (CADWM) programme envisages the
utilization of irrigation potential. Available records indicate that a wide utilization gap exists
till today, it is estimated that about 55% of created potential is utilized and 45% remains
unutilized due to poor resource support. Any shift in rainfall and temperature over a long
period of time may affect agriculture directly. This must be identified with variabilities in
climate projected and accordingly, climate resistant variety need to be promoted. Also, new
varieties which are pest resistant and consumes less water with high yield suitable for this
climate needs to be selected. Terraced rice cultivation should be supported to lessen
dependency on shifting cultivation. Enhancement of livestock production by introduction of
climate change adaptation measures should be done.
8.4 Horticulture
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Alternative interventions required with respect to Climate change
for future. The financial and research assistance is sought for in-situ / ex-situ conservation of
germplasm of agricultural and horticultural importance/ conservation of wild relative of
agricultural and horticultural crops found in Arunachal Pradesh and investigation on the use
of existing wild germplasm for developing more climate change tolerant varieties.
Urban Development: urban transport (3500 million rupees) and urban mapping… building
sewerage line and stormwater drainage in twenty-six urban settlements…. connecting all the
unconnected 2741 habitations
Focus is on Rooftop rainwater harvesting schemes, source protection, gully plugging, check
dam, catchment area protection, contour trenching, impounding reservoirs and artificial
recharge. Advocacy and communication strategy on optimum water use, re-use of water, wise
water use programs and water pricing has been proposed
8.6 Health
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Alternative interventions required with respect to Climate change
Table 8-1 Interventions and Impact for Supply and Demand sectors
Sectors Interventions Impact
Source protection, gully plugging, check dam, Enhancing sustainable sharing of natural
Catchment area protection, Contour trenching resources and protection from wear and tear
Impounding reservoirs and artificial recharge due to human intervention and natural causes
Policy intervention of putting cost to above Regulating and implementing conduct of
mentioned involvements to bear costs from natural resources management works under
MGNREGS and IWMP government policy initiative
Spring rejuvenation inventorying, measurement Natural resource protection and availability for
Supply
of discharge and rejuvenation of old dying local usage, sub-surface water fluctuation
springs assessment
WRH to tap the surface run off by rain water and Rainwater harvesting and increased recharge
for artificial recharge of ground water. for dry periods
Enhancing afforestation and plantations Helps in Deforestation combating, biodiversity
activities. protection
Effective fire prevention and fire management. Avoiding loss of natural and economic
resources
Terraced Rice Cultivation. Also hand over the for overall maintenance of the system
rehabilitated irrigation system to the farmers and
Agriculture & horticulture
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Alternative interventions required with respect to Climate change
Roof top rain water harvesting schemes Extra water availability for daily purposes at
household level.
Water Quality monitoring stations establishments Control over water quality levels and
declarations for fit/unfit of water for different
purposes.
Solid Waste Management
Setup of sewage treatment Plans Ethical dumping of industrial sewages
Decreased chances of natural resources
pollution
Industrial
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Alternative interventions required with respect to Climate change
In terms of utilisation of water for State’s agriculture, the Agriculture Policy 2001 provides
rapid expansion of area under agriculture through the innovative use of technology, expand
irrigation facilities and build supporting infrastructure. The new Industrial Policy formulated
in 2001 provides for a range of fiscal incentives, streamlined administrative processes and
development of infrastructure facilities such as industrial parks, Industrial Estates, Industrial
Growth Centers, Integrated Infrastructure Development Centers etc.
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