Sistema Integrado y Planificación de Operaciones de Duke Energy - Un Análisis Comparativo de Las Prácticas de Planificación Integrada

TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TO STATE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSIONS
Duke Energy’s Integrated System and Operations

Planning: A comparative analysis of integrated
planning practices
Prepared for the South Carolina Office of Regulatory Staff

Jeremy Keen and Erik Pohl, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Natalie Mims Frick, JP Carvallo and Lisa Schwartz, Berkeley Lab
June 2023
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Acknowledgements
The authors thank Joe Paladino and Michelle Boyd, U.S. Department of Energy for their support of our
work, and Duke Energy for their contributions to this report.
Funding for this study was provided by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity and Office of
Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
Disclaimer
This document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the United States Government. While
this document is believed to contain correct information, neither the United States Government nor any
agency thereof, nor The Regents of the University of California, nor any of their employees, makes any
warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or
usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would
not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or
service by its trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or
imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency
thereof, or The Regents of the University of California. The views and opinions of authors expressed
herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof,
or The Regents of the University of California.
Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory is an equal opportunity employer.
Copyright Notice
This manuscript has been authored by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory under Contract No. DE-
AC02-05CH11231 with the U.S. Department of Energy and National Renewable Energy Laboratory,
operated by Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under
Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. The U.S. Government retains, and the publisher, by accepting the
article for publication, acknowledges, that the U.S. Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up,
irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow
others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes.
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Table of Contents
Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................. 2
Disclaimer .................................................................................................................................................. 2
Copyright Notice ....................................................................................................................................... 2
Table of Contents...................................................................................................................................... 3
Table of Figures ........................................................................................................................................ 3
1 Introduction......................................................................................................................................... 4
1.1 Using This Report ....................................................................................................................... 8
1.2 Accessing the ISOP Process Diagram ......................................................................................... 9
2 Observations About Duke Energy’s Integrated System and Operations Planning .................... 11
2.1 Morecast .................................................................................................................................... 11
2.2 Advanced Distribution Planning and Distribution Non-Traditional Solution Screening ........... 13
2.3 Integrated Resource Planning .................................................................................................... 15
2.4 Transmission Planning .............................................................................................................. 16
2.5 Hosting Capacity ....................................................................................................................... 17
2.6 ISOP Data System ..................................................................................................................... 18
3 Assessing ISOP Based on Best Practices for Integrated Distribution Planning Processes ..... 18
3.1 Objective ................................................................................................................................... 19
3.2 Integrated .................................................................................................................................. 21
3.3 Transparent ................................................................................................................................ 24
3.4 Measurable ................................................................................................................................ 26
4 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................ 28
References............................................................................................................................................... 30
Appendix A. Link to ISOP Process Diagram .................................................................................. 33
Appendix B. ISOP Process Diagram Footnotes............................................................................. 34
Appendix C. Duke Energy Responses to Project Team Questions ............................................. 37
Table of Figures
Figure 1. Power system domains included in the ISOP framework ............................................................ 4
Figure 2. Duke Energy ISOP process diagram (see Appendix B for footnotes) ....................................... 10
Figure 3. Xcel Energy (Minnesota) Advanced Grid Intelligence and Security (AGIS): Core components,
applications, and estimated implementation status (Xcel 2021) ........................................... 21
Figure 4. Xcel Energy (Minnesota) Distribution Investment Roadmap (Xcel 2021) ................................ 25
Figure 5. Xcel Energy (Minnesota) Distributed Intelligence Foundational Capabilities and Cost-Benefit
Analysis for Initial Use Cases (Net Present Value in Millions) (Xcel 2021) ........................ 27
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1 Introduction
The South Carolina Office of Regulatory Staff (ORS) represents the public interest in state utility
regulation and is considered a party of record in all filings, applications, and proceedings before the
Public Service Commission of South Carolina. In their 2018 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), Duke Energy
Progress (DEP) and Duke Energy Carolinas (DEC), subsidiaries of Duke Energy Corporation (Duke Energy),
laid out their plan to incorporate their Integrated System and Operations Planning (ISOP) framework in
future IRPs. The Companies cited trends in technology development, declining costs of resources, and
customer preferences for distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar and electric vehicles as
contributing factors in a need to update planning tools – specifically those that can better identify the
locational value of distributed generation and strengthen the link between distribution and bulk power
plans (DEP 2018). In 2022, the South Carolina ORS requested technical assistance from the U.S.
Department of Energy to better understand how the ISOP framework interacts with other electricity
planning processes such as the IRP. In short, ISOP is Duke Energy’s process for integrating planning
efforts across four key domains in the power system: generation, transmission, distribution, and
demand-side (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Power system domains included in the ISOP framework
Duke Energy envisions ISOP as a framework or process by which it would fully and fairly value all energy
resources based on their functional capabilities, regardless of location. ISOP is not deterministic of
outcomes; rather, continued application of judgment is needed to ensure optimal outcomes for utility
customers. The company is using ISOP to develop and implement new tools for evaluating the
performance of a range of portfolios across a range of futures. Duke Energy’s objective for ISOP is to
“cost-effectively integrate new technologies and customer programs as technology and policy continue
to evolve” (Duke Energy 2019).
The company intends for ISOP to provide increasingly robust analysis of operational impacts and
benefits of integrating DERs and other non-traditional solutions across generation, transmission,
distribution, and demand-side planning. The framework also incorporates granular load forecasting,
Advanced Distribution Planning (ADP), and capacity contributions from zero emission, load-following
resources. Beyond integrating ISOP into the IRP, Duke Energy is also integrating ISOP with its Climate
Risk and Resilience study (Duke Energy 2022), non-traditional grid solutions studies, and Grid
Improvement Plan.
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Generation, Transmission, Distribution, and Demand-Side Domains
Generation includes technologies that produce and store electricity. Generation planning, in vertically
integrated jurisdictions, usually relies on IRP. In restructured jurisdictions, generation and storage
investment decisions are made by entities in response to price signals in energy and capacity markets.
Bulk power system transmission typically covers high-voltage lines at or above 100 kV, including the
transformers used to step down voltage to distribution system levels. The transmission planning
process can be conducted by an RTO/ISO, utility, or both, depending on jurisdiction.
The distribution system typically starts at the low voltage bus in a substation that converts voltage
down from transmission level to lower levels that are safe for delivery in population centers.
Distribution systems are divided into primary and secondary: primary lines bring power into
population centers, and secondary lines bring power to premises. Typical voltage for primary
distribution systems ranges from 12 kV to 34 kV. These lines are referred to as “feeders” or “circuits”
that begin at the substation circuit breaker.
The demand side comprises all behind-the-meter interventions that can be operated for customer
and electricity system benefits. Demand-side planning typically uses one or more screening processes
to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of proposed measures. When the system-level benefits of demand-
side management are incorporated into distribution planning, these interventions can be included in
the planning process as an element of “non-wires alternatives,” “non-wires solutions” or, as in the
ISOP framework, “non-traditional solutions.”
ISOP is Duke Energy’s internal integrated process to address planning needs across all four electric utility
resource domains. Initially, Duke Energy has focused on ISOP’s application to the utilities in the Carolinas
region, which are vertically integrated. Duke Energy’s approach to developing ISOP builds on planning
and regulatory advancements already accepted in its jurisdictions, including grid modernization under
the Grid Improvement Plan and scenario-based generation and transmission planning in Integrated
Resource Planning. ISOP further expands on these elements in areas related to integration of renewable
generation and new distributed resources, including but not limited to more granular planning forecasts
and modeling systems, evaluation of non-traditional solutions for the grid, grid hosting analysis,
stakeholder engagement, and new resource valuation methods to recognize value across business
segments.
As a point of reference, a growing number of states are adopting regulatory requirements for various
forms of integrated distribution planning (IDP), which is one of the dimensions addressed by ISOP. There
are differences between jurisdictions’ IDP requirements in terms of what must be filed and when
various new elements of utility plans must mature for inclusion.
The regulatory focus in jurisdictions served by Duke Energy has been on IRP scenarios, grid
modernization, reliability and resilience, and affordability. ISOP’s planning elements reflect these
priorities. When considered alongside its work in IRP and the Grid Improvement Plan, Duke Energy views
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ISOP as addressing the highest-value elements of IDP as it is performed in other regions. The company’s
ISOP team monitors those efforts and considers them for inclusion in the ISOP roadmap if deemed
appropriate for the utility and its customers and stakeholders.
ISOP shares several components with IDP, such as integrating internal utility processes for planning
generation, transmission, distribution, and demand-side resources. ISOP also includes some core
components of a typical IDP, such as advanced forecasting and system modeling, hosting capacity
analysis, screening of non-traditional solutions, and stakeholder information sessions. There are also
opportunities to improve ISOP, such as increasing stakeholder engagement, including a detailed
discussion of ISOP in IRPs, and providing more information on how ISOP identifies investment decisions
that are least cost and risk for maintaining a reliable, resilient distribution system.
Integrated Distribution System Planning (U.S. DOE 2020)
“IDP provides a systematic approach to satisfy customer service expectations and the specific grid
planning and design objectives related to reliability and resilience, safety and operational efficiency,
and DER and microgrid integration and utilization. These three focus areas of modern distribution
planning require a unified process integrated with system forecasts and corresponding resource and
transmission planning.” (p. 13)
In states that require regulated utilities to submit IDPs, utilities publicly file their plans for regulatory
review and approval or acceptance, and there are provisions for significant stakeholder engagement and
data access. Because South Carolina law does not require an IDP, these provisions would not directly
apply. Consequently, IDP elements appear instead in Duke Energy’s Grid Improvement Plan, IRP, and
rate case filings. These proceedings and their attendant regulatory, stakeholder, and community
engagement processes cover the planning spectrum. ISOP supports each of these planning functions
with the advanced planning capabilities discussed herein. Given the overlap of some of these advanced
planning elements with IDP, this report provides useful comparisons and shares emerging best practices
for IDP that may reveal opportunities for further development of ISOP.
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Identifying IDP Objectives (U.S. DOE 2020)1
“Undertaking such an effort begins with an articulation of principles and policy mandates, as well as an
understanding of the evolving needs of customers and associated trends. These factors inform the
development of grid modernization objectives that consider timing with respect to addressing
emerging trends, customer needs, and public policies.” (p18)
About 20 states require utilities to file distribution system plans (DSP), and several others require filings
for certain aspects of distribution grid planning (i.e., poorly performing circuits, DER adoption targets, or
grid modernization plans) (Schwartz and Frick 2022). 2 In South Carolina, DEP and DEC provide some of
this information in their Grid Improvement Plan and rate cases. 3
More than 35 states require bulk system planning filings, which usually take the form of an IRP or similar
long-term investment plan (Frick et al. 2021). Duke Energy is required to regularly file IRPs, which
include commitments to include detailed information and planning results from ISOP, transmission,
energy storage, and customer programs. The company also files transmission plans and demand-side
management plans.
1 See Table 1 in the referenced DOE guidebook for definitions and examples for each level of the figure’s taxonomy (L0-L4).
2 Berkeley Lab’s catalog of state IDP requirements will be published on its Integrated Distribution System Planning
website. See https://emp.lbl.gov/projects/integrated-distribution-system-planning.
3 In South Carolina, DEP and DEC filed their Grid Improvement Plan (ND-2020-28-E), which discusses distribution system needs.
In Indiana, Duke Energy may file a 6-year plan for approval of transmission, distribution, and storage improvements; see
https://www.in.gov/oucc/electric/key-cases-by-utility/duke-energy-rates/duke-energy-infrastructure-plan/.
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IDP Goals and Requirements (Regulatory Assistance Project 2023)
In some jurisdictions, state IDP goals come from legislation directing commissions to provide guidance
to utilities for filing distribution plans. Commissions have either directly adopted these state policy
goals or used them as a starting point for a stakeholder process to fine tune and create additional
goals for IDP. In other states, commissions establish IDP goals and requirements on their own motion.
A common overarching theme is ensuring a safe, reliable, and affordable system. Goals and objectives
are then focused more narrowly on distribution system investments that modernize the grid while
ensuring reliability cost-effectively.
In the past, regulators have had limited insight into distribution system investments. IDP goals reflect
the need for transparency and stakeholder engagement. Several commissions set IDP requirements in
response to lack of information provided by regulated utilities. As spending by investor-owned
utilities in distribution system investments has grown to 33% of capex in 2022 (EEI 2021), regulators’
interest in greater visibility in distribution planning has increased.
ISOP lays the groundwork for an ongoing integrated planning process, incorporating regular stakeholder
engagement meetings, annually updating granular forecasts, and building tools to enable more
streamlined and automated planning in the future. Duke Energy intends to use ISOP elements to inform
the companies’ IRP filings and update reports, Grid Improvement Plan filings, and rate cases. 4 Internally,
Duke Energy is using ISOP to advance and automate routine distribution planning practices and advance
new processes (e.g., screenings of non-traditional solutions). Many ISOP functionalities are being
developed incrementally, where functionalities are being built out and accuracy is being improved in
phases. For example, prior to releasing its full hosting capacity analysis in 2024, DEC is providing
developers with high-level guidance maps for distributed generation. 5
1.1 Using This Report

To create this report, Berkeley Lab and the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) project team:
• Met with both the South Carolina ORS and the North Carolina Public Staff to understand their
research needs and questions.
• Reviewed Duke Energy’s publicly available ISOP documents; interviewed Duke Energy staff to fill
the gap in our understanding of ISOP; and reviewed Duke Energy’s written responses to
interview questions (Appendix C).
• Researched examples of IDP best practices.
• Used information from our research and interviews to create a process diagram showing key
ISOP inputs, processes, and outputs.
4Duke also plans to use ISOP in other state proceedings (e.g., North Carolina Carbon Plan).
5The Distributed Generation map is available at
https://dukeenergy.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=4f6d46d67a2f4023ba7aae0953baf66a.
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• Reviewed the process diagram with ORS, Public Staff, and Duke Energy and incorporated their
feedback into a final version.
While this report was prepared for the South Carolina ORS, the information contained herein may be
useful to audiences in other states who are interested in IDP, including public utility commissions, state
energy offices, other state agencies, utilities, and stakeholders. 6
The remainder of this report discusses how to access the ISOP process diagram we created for this
report, which clarifies ISOP’s relationship to Duke Energy’s other planning processes; observations about
Duke Energy’s ISOP from our interviews; a review of publicly available materials; and an assessment of
ISOP based on best practices for integrated distribution planning. The report concludes with
opportunities to improve the transparency of ISOP.
Readers can ask themselves the following questions as they review our process diagram and apply the
information in this report to their jurisdiction:
• How is distribution system planning integrated with other planning processes undertaken by
regulated utilities?
• How are grid modernization strategies and DERs addressed in distribution system plans today?
What improvements can be made to better plan for future uncertainties and risks?
• How do planned or proposed grid modernization investments contribute to DER integration?
• What are the criteria and/or processes used to evaluate whether proposed distribution system
investments are least cost and risk?
• Are there opportunities to improve stakeholder participation, increase data transparency, and
clarify the role of stakeholder feedback in distribution system planning processes?
• When evaluating distribution system solutions, are all costs and benefits of non-wires
alternatives included in the analysis?
1.2 Accessing the ISOP Process Diagram

This section discusses how to access and interpret the ISOP process diagram we created for this project
and explains the relationship between Duke Energy’s ISOP and its other planning processes.
NREL developed the ISOP process diagram in collaboration with Duke Energy, Berkeley Lab, and ORS to
create a visual representation of the relationship between ISOP and other planning processes (e.g., Duke
Energy’s IRP, rate cases, and asset management). The diagram shows key inputs, processes, and outputs
of ISOP (Figure 2; better viewed online at the link provided in Appendix A).
6Duke Energy does not explicitly refer to ISOP as IDP since it has broader objectives across the utility's business segments.
However, many ISOP goals relate to distribution planning and align with common IDP goals.
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Accessing the ISOP Process Diagram
The diagram was made in draw.io.7 Users can access the fully functional online version by cutting
and pasting the link in Appendix A into a browser. Use of the viewer is recommended because all
footnotes can be seen by hovering over reference numbers with the user’s mouse.
Solid lines are used for dependencies or components that are complete. Dashed lines and italics are
used for connections or components that are pending or may warrant consideration. Hovering over
“Tool Tips” shows complete footnotes in the diagram, which provide extra information. Each section
of the diagram is color-coded (e.g., load forecasting is blue). Some sections contain a mix of colored,
sometimes repeated components to minimize the number of connections and simplify the diagram.
Figure 2. Duke Energy ISOP process diagram (see Appendix B for footnotes)
Note: This figure is best viewed through the link provided in Appendix A.
7 https://app.diagrams.net/.
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2 Observations About Duke Energy’s Integrated

System and Operations Planning
This section of the report provides observations regarding six aspects of ISOP: Morecast, Advanced
Distribution Planning and Distribution Non-Traditional Solution Screening, Integrated Resource Planning,
Transmission Planning, Hosting Capacity, and the ISOP Data System.
2.1 Morecast
Morecast is a 10-year, hourly distribution system forecast at the circuit level describing the aggregate
load at the beginning of the primary voltage feeder. The model was developed in-house by Duke Energy.
Forecasts for load, electric vehicles (EVs), DER, and customer programs are used to build circuit-level net
load forecasts.
DER and Load Forecasts (U.S. DOE 2020)
“System-level DER and load forecasts are primary inputs to both resource planning and distribution
planning. These forecasts reflect macroeconomic trends, policy changes, retail rates, technology
advancements, and diffusion patterns. The load forecasts are developed using long-term forecasts of
aggregate consumer energy consumption (demand and load profiles) for a specific area (e.g., state,
utility service area). This base load forecast is adjusted to reflect the net effects of customer adoption
of distributed generation, storage, electric vehicles, and other load-modifying devices. Each DER
component is layered onto the load forecast to reflect the net effect. The resulting aggregate net load
forecast is used in an IRP analysis. System load and resource forecasts, inclusive of DER, reflect broad
changes across a jurisdictional area and are not detailed to a specific location at the distribution
system in an IRP. Distribution planning requires a more granular forecast that is derived from this
system level forecast along with the incremental DER identified in an IRP.” (p. 24-5)
The dependency between the Morecast and IRP load forecasting is under development. In conversations
with the project team, Duke Energy shared that the IRP and transmission forecast is informed by
Morecast but does not directly depend on it. Observations about the Morecast and load forecast
relationship include the following:
• Morecast incorporates some increased load from electrification. Morecast accounts for
electrification trends by incorporating third-party energy intensity forecasts into the load
growth component of the forecast, separated by end use. In addition, as noted below, both light
duty and medium/heavy duty electric vehicle forecasts predict increased charging load from
public and at-home locations. Morecast may not reflect increased load from other emerging
electrification trends. However, the use of scenario planning to explore electrification pathways
is under investigation. Morecast produces a forecast at the feeder head (i.e., the beginning of
the circuit, adjacent to the substation). For power flow purposes, it then allocates load to
distribution transformers based on installed capacity. This is an imperfect approach that may
not reflect increased loads from electrification of end uses that would occur in hotspots within
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the secondary distribution system. Growth from all loads, including electrification, may require
distribution transformer expansion.
• Inconsistencies can exist between the circuit level (Morecast) and bulk system forecasts if they
reference different temperature/load assumptions and risk considerations. In discussions with
the project team, Duke Energy shared that their bulk system planning utilizes weather-
normalized load forecasts and incorporates reserve margins for weather, operational risks, and
load from customers that are not connected to the distribution system. T&D planning typically
utilizes more demanding weather conditions and localized events to evaluate potential for
unreliable operating conditions. Both forecasts use the same PV, customer programs, and
energy efficiency forecasts aligned with the bulk grid forecast. According to Duke Energy, the full
Morecast is not rolled up due to its circuit-level focus and the lack of other transmission-served
customer loads which would introduce accumulated error when aggregated across the bulk
system.
• EV adoption is included in Morecast. Morecast integrates the light duty, medium duty (MD) and
heavy duty (HD) forecasts from the Vehicle Analytics and Simulation Tool (VAST) tool into its
forecast by mapping the census-tract-level VAST forecasts to circuits. This covers residential at-
home charging as well as workplace, public, and MD/HD. (Michael Rib, personal communication,
June 2, 2023). 8
• Current customer programs are accounted for in Morecast. The forecast includes incremental
participation in almost all utility energy efficiency (UEE) programs (Michael Rib, personal
communication, June 2, 2023). 9
• Duke Energy uses backcasting to validate its forecast. Backcasting compares load forecasts with
actual load after it has materialized. This should allow for continued discussion with regulators
and stakeholders on forecast accuracy, how accuracy affects planning decisions, and
opportunities to improve the forecast.
Several components of Morecast are in development or under evaluation:

• The inclusion of scenarios in Morecast is pending. Scenario-based analysis will be important given
the increasing uncertainty of several important variables in distribution planning.
• Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) integration into the native load forecast is under
evaluation. AMI integration provides an opportunity to improve the native load forecast.
• Forecasts for new customer programs are in development. New forecast elements and additional
integration are needed for emerging new forms of energy efficiency and demand response along
with behind-the-meter (BTM) battery storage and EV vehicle-to-grid (V2G) programs.
8 Additional information will be available in Duke Energy’s 2023 IRP (to be filed in Docket No. 2023-10-E) and DEP’s 2023 IRP (to
be filed in Docket No. 2023-8-E).
9 Additional information will be available in Duke Energy’s 2023 IRP (to be filed in Docket No. 2023-10-E) and DEP’s 2023 IRP (to
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Distribution Planning Load Forecasts (U.S DOE 2020)
“Distribution planning requires a closer examination of the potential changes to load and DERs at the
level of a substation, feeder, and in some cases sections of a feeder. This involves developing a granular
locational forecast as well as more detailed temporal forecasts. These locational forecasts incorporate
information regarding specific new housing and commercial developments based on existing or
anticipated customer service requests, DER adoption and use patterns, and other relevant information
that will shape the forecast. System forecasts of DER adoption and use inform the development of more
‘bottom-up’ granular locational forecasts that are applicable to the specific distribution planning areas
under assessment. The aggregate results are typically compared with system level projections; ideally,
the granular distribution forecasts in aggregate comport with the system level forecasts.” (p. 26)
2.2 Advanced Distribution Planning and Distribution Non-

Traditional Solution Screening
Duke Energy’s Advanced Distribution Planning (ADP) platform is a distribution power flow modeling
toolset, incorporating system topology GIS data, forecasting outputs from Morecast, and Eaton’s CYME
power flow modeling software to conduct traditional planning studies while building capabilities for
more detailed and automated analyses in the future. Duke Energy currently uses ADP to identify
network constraints and automatically propose traditional distribution system solutions including
reconductoring, phase balancing, load transfers, and new regulators. These automated solutions are
applied only at locations downstream of the feeder substation and not at the substation. Because of
their expense and complexity (e.g., planning a new circuit or substation), Duke Energy applies manual
traditional solutions instead of ADP at the circuit (substation) level.
Non-traditional solutions – also known as non-wires alternatives (NWAs) or non-wires solutions (NWSs)
– are resource options for meeting distribution system needs related to load growth, reliability, and
resilience. Battery storage is currently the only non-traditional solution being modeled by Duke Energy
in ADP for circuit-level capacity constraints (e.g., thermal thresholds of substation transformers, feeder
breakers, conductors exiting the substation). According to Duke Energy, non-traditional solutions are
likely to be less cost competitive than reconductoring solutions due to the latter’s lower costs.
There are potential benefits in using ADP to screen non-traditional solutions. For example, ADP could
allow a non-traditional solution to be evaluated on a longer time horizon and with more granularity than
those traditionally modeled by planners (e.g., five-year circuit-level time horizons) to better capture
added costs and benefits. Performing a power flow analysis of a non-traditional solution is also crucial in
identifying locational impacts of the solution (e.g., local voltage rise, reverse power flow through
protective devices, local equipment thermal constraints), which would not be revealed with a purely
circuit-level analysis.
At this point, Duke Energy uses ADP to screen for potential storage projects to support peak shaving
applications at the circuit level. The model allows planners to screen for storage opportunities to
address overloads observed at any time in the 10-year modeling period. Duke Energy assumes that
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batteries have a 10-year lifespan, and thus a 10-year modeling period maximizes the battery’s benefit-
to-cost ratio.
Once a candidate opportunity is identified in the screening process, the planner then reviews it in more
detail to determine what overloads may occur over time to select an appropriately sized battery for the
next step in the non-traditional solution comparison process. This review includes a detailed technical
analysis to determine the resource capacity requirements, as well as an economic comparison of the
non-traditional solution versus the traditional solution. The technical analysis reveals the targeted circuit
overloads, the number of years the traditional solution may be deferred based on the forecast, and the
subsequent size of the battery required. The economic analysis then compares the value of deferring
the traditional solution’s cost with the battery, along with an estimated value of the operational benefits
associated with installing the battery. There is typically also a quick check to see if the circuit and/or
substation transformer bank are in a constrained area that might offer additional relief at the
transmission level. To determine the battery’s operational benefits, the ISOP and planning teams review
the connectivity of the specific proposed battery and assess its ability to support system capacity needs,
deliver energy arbitrage value, and provide ancillary services. Each of these operational values, which
are termed “proxy values” for bulk system benefits, are based on EnCompass modeling runs and analysis
referencing the regulatory resource plans in the IRP, and consequently these values are both internally
consistent and aligned with the IRP. If results of the above analysis are reasonable and directionally
correct, they are reviewed to determine if the competitiveness of the results warrants taking the study
to a more detailed level (Duke 2023).
However, Duke faces several challenges in integrating and identifying non-traditional solutions in the
ADP, as this is inherently a very complex modeling challenge. First, Duke’s ADP has a 10-year forward-
looking horizon, and their non-traditional solution screening only identifies projects that can defer a
system need for a minimum of 10 years (Duke 2023). Second, as mentioned in Section 2.1, Morecast has
circuit-level or coarser spatial resolution. These circuit-level forecasts must be spatially allocated across
a feeder (also known as “downscaling”) to identify specific locational impacts of a proposed solution.
This load allocation process currently relies on algorithms from the CYME modeling software within ADP,
which are often based on high-level data like transformer nameplate ratings, monthly customer energy
consumption from a metering database, or customer counts on transformers. In the absence of finer-
resolution forecasts, this allocation process can introduce uncertainty and potentially misrepresent local
impacts of a non-traditional solution.
There are several potential improvements for Duke Energy’s non-traditional solution screening process:
• Ideally, non-traditional solutions would be fully integrated into a capacity expansion

optimization model. However, this could prove computationally challenging and not achievable
with the planning models that Duke Energy currently has in use. Developing an iterative process
to converge towards a portfolio of non-traditional solutions would produce more robust results
than a single-stage screening process and better approximate the outcome of an optimization
process. Currently, proxy values are calculated using Encompass.
• Duke Energy is currently studying only batteries in their non-traditional solution analysis. During
our interviews, Duke Energy expressed a desire to characterize and model efficiency, demand
response, and other DERs as non-traditional solutions for capacity, reliability, and resilience
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benefits. As noted above, in interviews Duke Energy also shared that they are beginning to
evaluate customer programs as non-traditional solutions to avoid capacity upgrades.
• The value stack for batteries in Duke Energy’s non-traditional solutions analysis is currently
limited to grid deferral value and bulk system benefits that address specific circuit issues (Duke
Energy 2023). However, batteries may bring several additional benefits, such as local reliability
and resilience enhancement. Accounting for these additional value streams may improve the
non-traditional solution screening outcomes for batteries.
• Managed EV charging is not currently included as a non-traditional solution, but Duke Energy
shared that they will evaluate managed charging as part of their forthcoming vehicle-to-grid
pilot program to determine its applicability as a non-traditional solution.
• Duke Energy used four primary screening metrics in their 2021-2022 non-traditional solution
planning cycle: project cost, in-service date, whether the traditional solution already had
significant existing commitments or expenditures, and the ability to defer a traditional
investment for 10 years. To date, the company’s non-traditional solution screening process has
not identified any cost-effective non-traditional solution projects, which is largely in line with
other utility findings today. 10 Duke Energy noted that an investment tax credit (ITC), federal
funding, and/or carbon cost could change the value proposition of non-traditional solutions.
2.3 Integrated Resource Planning

Duke Energy’s IRP is a 15-year roadmap, filed every three years with an annual update, to identify future
energy and demand requirements for their fleet of generators (DEP 2022, DEC 2022). Duke Energy uses a
common approach in their IRP whereby generation needs are estimated through a combination of
scenario-driven load forecasting and contingencies.
Integrated Resource Planning (U.S. DOE 2020)
“IRPs are used to identify the incremental generation and demand-side management resources
required to meet changes in energy demand and resource availability over a long duration, often 10–
20 years. Long-term, system-level, net-load forecasts are a key input to an IRP as discussed below.
These forecasts include customer adoption of DER to create a baseline for determining incremental
resource needs. An IRP also addresses contributing factors that impact electricity supply and delivery,
including renewable portfolio standards, resilience and reliability objectives, and DER (including energy
efficiency) policies at both federal and state levels. Resource plans increasingly include identification of
additional distributed generation, storage, and demand management and energy efficiency programs
needed to contribute to overall resource needs for energy, capacity, and ancillary services. These
planned incremental distributed resources are combined with consumer DER adoption forecasts to
inform distribution planning.” (p. 24)
ISOP has both established and pending integrations with the company’s IRP and its distribution planning.
As is typical for resource adequacy assessments, Duke Energy uses their bulk system forecasts to create
10Examples of successful non-wires alternative projects in New York, California, and Michigan are discussed in Schwartz and
Frick (2022), Frick et al. (2021), DTE (2021) and PG&E (2022).
15
different scenarios for their generation resource adequacy and transmission planning models. As
mentioned in Section 2.1, the company’s IRP and transmission planning forecasts are informed by
common underlying elements and aligned with Morecast, but do not directly depend on it.
Duke Energy is also implementing some best practices. During discussions with the project team, Duke
Energy confirmed their approach to considering contributions from DERs— the resources are evaluated
to determine their effective load carrying capability (ELCC), which is aggregated up to the system level.
Duke Energy also shared that they anticipate non-traditional solutions will be integrated from the
distribution and transmission levels up to the IRP resource level to appropriately recognize their
contributions at the system level.
2.4 Transmission Planning

The electric power transmission system moves “bulk energy products from where they are produced or
generated to distribution lines that carry the energy products to consumers.” 11 Transmission planners
are responsible for developing long-term plans to maintain the reliability of the bulk power system in
the geographical area they oversee. As part of that, planners simulate performance of the system at a
few key times, typically the summer and winter peak hours as well as a spring light-load hour, to
determine if infrastructure changes are needed. Planners use these simulations to assess whether the
system will meet required performance thresholds after a fault or loss of a larger generator or
transmission line (Faris et al. 2020). Duke Energy’s IRP and transmission planning functions are separate
organizations, but they do collaborate. For example, in the most recent IRP update the transmission
planning team leveraged the IRP resource requirements forecast and interconnection queue history to
develop and submit requests for the Red Zone Expansion Plan, which contains proactive transmission
projects shown to have reliability and resiliency benefits for customers and to alleviate some of the
constraints limiting renewables additions to the system (Michael Rib, personal communication, June 2,
2023).
In accordance with FERC Order Nos. 890 and 1000, Duke Energy utilizes the North Carolina Transmission
Planning Collaborative (NCTPC) as a local transmission planning process. 12 NCTPC participants currently
include the Duke Energy Companies, North Carolina Electric Membership Corporation, and ElectriCities
of North Carolina. These participants and other stakeholders (including South Carolina utilities and
wholesale customers) may submit requests for local transmission planning studies and recommend
alternative solutions to identified local transmission projects through the NCTPC Transmission Advisory
Group. The NCTPC process occurs annually and ultimately results in a single Local Transmission Plan that
“includes reliability, economic, and public policy considerations while appropriately balancing costs,
benefits, and risks associated with the use of transmission, generation, and demand-side resources”
(NCTPC 2023). The NCTPC is an integral part of the transmission process for the local transmission
planning of DEC and DEP’s South Carolina and North Carolina networked transmission systems. South
Carolina utilities and wholesale customers may participate as stakeholders in the NCTPC as well as the
Carolinas Transmission Coordination Arrangement (CTCA). There are also informal discussions about
11FERC Glossary. https://www.ferc.gov/industries-data/resources/public-reference-room/ferc-glossary.

12Joint Open Access Transmission Tariff of Duke Energy Carolinas, LLC, Duke Energy Florida, LLC, and Duke Energy Progress, LLC
Attachment N-1, “Transmission Planning Process (Progress Zone and Duke Zone).”
16
potentially including South Carolina wholesale customers as voting members in the NCTPC and renaming
the NCTPC to the Carolinas Transmission Expansion Planning group (CTEP).
In transmission planning, Duke Energy follows standard industry practice by using common tools such as
PSS/E and TARA. These tools model the dynamic behavior of transmission networks in response to
contingencies and the ability of the transmission network to recover to an operating point within
standardized limits. Currently, Duke Energy does not include detailed transmission power flow modeling
in its IRP process. In its ISOP, transmission planning, and IRP, Duke Energy has begun using DC power
flow modeling for NTS screening and to support resource siting to better integrate generation and
transmission planning (Michael Rib, personal communication, June 2, 2023). 13 A DC optimal power flow
“nodal” model can be used to assist with the capacity expansion process and help ensure that
suggestions from the IRP are robust when considering transmission constraints, thereby facilitating the
transmission planning process.
2.5 Hosting Capacity

Duke Energy currently does not produce a hosting capacity analysis (HCA), but instead produces a
“Distributed Generation Locational Guidance Map” depicting mainline segments of the distribution
system (up to the first line voltage regulator) at resolutions of one square mile. 14 The pixels are color-
coded to indicate high-level system constraints, including both the installed and queued distributed
generation systems above a 250-kW nameplate. System constraints considered in this map are limited
to the thermal limits of the substation transformer bank and feeder exit. This map is produced as a
snapshot in time and was last updated in February 2022. Duke Energy intends to refresh the map on an
annual basis.
Hosting Capacity Analysis (U.S. DOE 2020)
“Hosting Capacity Analysis estimates the amount of DER that can be accommodated, regardless of
location, on a sub-transmission distribution system, substation, or a feeder without violating power
quality, thermal loading, or protection requirements. The distribution planning analysis evaluates these
three dimensions against distribution planning criteria. The evaluation of equipment capacity and
operational flexibility is no different than the process described above for traditional one-way flow of
power to serve load except that the hourly loading and DER output patterns may be different.” (p. 36)
Duke Energy plans to develop a more detailed HCA for its Carolinas utilities as part of ISOP using time
series power flow models from the ADP to perform hosting capacity studies. This new process will be
released in 2024 in accordance with current regulatory agreements and includes a robust stakeholder
engagement process to ensure that interested parties are able to influence when and what HCA results
will be shared.
13Additional information will be available in Duke Energy’s 2023 IRP (to be filed in Docket No. 2023-10-E) and DEP’s 2023 IRP (to
14 https://dukeenergy.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=4f6d46d67a2f4023ba7aae0953baf66a.
17
Updates to the HCA can incorporate best practices on maintaining accurate HCA maps. 15 Examples
include:
• A well-documented, repeatable, transparent process with opportunities for feedback and error
identification.
• The value of scripted batch processes with actual (not estimated) customer data.
• For increased transparency, Duke can add stakeholder engagement to their HCA process.
Accurate HCA can provide information to developers about the quantity of DERs that could potentially
be managed on a given feeder. The utility can couple HCA with load and DER forecasting to identify
feeders that are likely to see DER growth and proactively consider upgrades. Proactive planning allows
the utility to provide developers with clear information on what grid services are needed and
appropriate incentive levels (Schwartz and Frick 2022).
2.6 ISOP Data System

The ISOP Data System is a collection of databases. An important component of the Data System is Duke
Energy’s “grid map data,” which refers to various investments Duke Energy has made in grid
connectivity, data quality, configuration data, system capabilities, and operations history to support
ISOP. Together, the ISOP Data System and grid map data allow Duke Energy engineers to easily access
data for different forms of analysis. While this may not seem noteworthy, many distribution utilities
have data in a collection of “silos” that make efficiently sharing data between departments and
modeling systems challenging.
Duke Energy’s initial focus for the ISOP Data System has been operating history, grid map data
supporting the Morecast, API development, and integration with new ADP toolsets. New functionality
continues to be developed to meet additional new applications as ISOP matures. Generation and
transmission data integration within ISOP will be developed as needs surface. AMI is not currently
integrated into the ISOP Data System. As more granular forecast options are explored for Morecast, the
Data System functionality will be reexamined, including the potential to include AMI-sourced data that
may be beneficial in modeling systems downstream of Morecast.
3 Assessing ISOP Based on Best Practices for

Integrated Distribution Planning Processes
Typically, state law, or utility regulators as authorized by state law, establish objectives and
requirements for an IDP process to achieve a variety of public interest goals. For example, the
Minnesota Public Utilities Commission (PUC) established the following principles and objectives for IDP
in that state (Minnesota PUC 2018):
• “Maintain and enhance the safety, security, reliability, and resilience of the electricity grid, at
fair and reasonable costs, consistent with the state’s energy policies.
• Enable greater customer engagement, empowerment, and options for energy services.
• Move toward the creation of efficient, cost-effective, accessible grid platforms for new products
and services, with opportunities for adoption of new distributed technologies.
15 For example, see https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/81811.pdf.
18
• Ensure optimized use of electricity grid assets and resources to minimize total system costs.”
In Colorado, the Public Utilities Commission identified that the purpose of a distribution system plan is
“to conduct a transparent review of utility investments in the distribution grid to ensure that they cost-
effectively support grid adequacy, reliability, and resilience while simultaneously supporting
diversification of energy supply through DERs, expanding the utilization of NWA that reduce the need
for conventional distribution grid investment, and preparing for new expectations upon the system” (CO
PUC 2020, p. 6). 16
This section uses four guiding principles of a robust IDP framework to review Duke Energy’s ISOP, based
on our review of best practices across the country. 17 Such a framework should be:
1. Objective
2. Integrated
3. Transparent
4. Measurable
Importance of Planning (U.S. DOE 2020)
“Experience across the United States has highlighted the need to proactively address changes to
distribution planning, to optimize distribution operational and capital expenditures, and inform DER
and microgrid development…IDP provides a systematic approach to satisfy customer service
expectations and the specific grid planning and design objectives related to reliability and resilience,
safety and operational efficiency, and DER and microgrid integration and utilization…” (p. 4)
We define each principle, summarize how ISOP addresses it, and describe how two utilities – Xcel Energy
in Minnesota and DTE Energy in Michigan – addresses each principle in their respective IDP (Alvarez and
Stephens 2019, Volkmann 2019). These utilities were selected as industry examples because both have
regularly filed and publicly available IDP reports, and their IDP processes illustrate the four guiding
principles: objective, integrated, transparent, and measurable.
3.1 Objective
Being objective in grid planning investment decisions means being impartial to all potential solutions to
grid needs. That includes all commercially available technologies; customer-sited and third-party
solutions, where suitable, as well as utility solutions; and multiple acquisition strategies, including
programs, procurement, and pricing. Such impartiality increases the likelihood that the largest benefits
relative to costs are delivered. Impartial decision-making may be achieved by prioritizing investments
based on their abilities to achieve well-defined objectives (e.g., resilience, reliability, affordability).
Objectives may be established through state policy via legislation or by state regulators as part of a
rulemaking or other regulatory process. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Modern Distribution Grid
16 See also Colo. Rev. Stat. § 40-2-132 (requiring utilities to file a distribution system plan and the Colorado Public Utilities
Commission to promulgate rules regarding such a plan).

17 See Chew and Cutler (2020), Alvarez, Stephens and O’Connell (2019), and Schwartz and Frick (2022).
19
guidebook provides an objective-driven framework for improving objectivity in grid planning

investments (see text box below).
Key Concepts for DSP Process (U.S. DOE 2020)
The U.S. Department of Energy's Modern Distribution Grid guidebook presents four key concepts to
consider within modern-day distribution system planning processes:
1. First, well-articulated objectives that convey scope and timing requirements are essential to guide
the planning process. It becomes important in grid modernization plans to present a logic that links a
proposed technology deployment roadmap back to stated objectives.
2. Second, grid modernization planning is one aspect of a larger integrated distribution planning
process, in which foundational investments are required to enable advanced grid capabilities.
3. Third, undertaking a system engineering approach to determine functional and structural needs in
line with stated objectives should inform technology choices. The Guidebook applies principles from
grid architecture to govern objectives-based planning.
4. Fourth, technology implementation plans can adopt proportional deployment strategies (i.e., they
can provide advanced grid capabilities where most needed first and/or initially improve grid function
with simpler solutions, followed by more sophisticated approaches at a later time, as needed). The
stratagem, termed “walk-jog-run,” is useful to consider when affordability constraints, modifications to
utility processes, or technology readiness may dictate the pace of grid modernization. (p. 4)
Duke Energy Activities
Since South Carolina law does not require the development of IDP, and because the Public Service
Commission of South Carolina has not established IDP requirements, Duke Energy does not have explicit
state-established objectives for IDP-related elements of the ISOP process. It is unclear how ISOP
prioritizes investments related to state objectives expressed in legislation or in PSCSC regulations and
orders in related matters.
Utility Examples
Xcel Energy’s IDP for Minnesota provides several good examples of objective-driven distribution
planning. First, prior to filing its first IDP in 2018, the PUC provided clear planning principles and
objectives to guide the IDP’s development (Xcel Energy 2018). Second, Xcel Energy reiterated
throughout the IDP document its strategic business priorities – namely, to lead the clean energy
transition, enhance the customer experience, and keep bills low – as well as the alignment of its
proposed initiatives. In addition to its overarching priorities, Xcel Energy defined three specific
objectives: addressing aging assets, enabling a clean energy transition, and modernizing the grid. The
company’s near-term goals target these objectives, in concert with the PUC’s principles and planning
objectives. As part of the company’s Grid Modernization Roadmap, Xcel Energy drew guidance from the
U.S. DOE’s Modern Distribution Grid series (DSPx). The utility defines each of its foundational core
components, along with their implementation status (Figure 3); these provide the foundation for more
advanced applications in the future (Xcel Energy 2021).
20
Figure 3. Xcel Energy (Minnesota) Advanced Grid Intelligence and Security (AGIS): Core
components, applications, and estimated implementation status (Xcel 2021)
DTE builds on DOE’s IDP framework in a similar fashion. The Michigan Public Service Commission (PSC)
initially set out several objectives for IDP: safety, reliability and resiliency, cost-effectiveness and
affordability, and accessibility (Michigan PSC 2017). In response, DTE defined five planning objectives to
prioritize investments and evaluate alternatives: safe, affordable, reliable and resilient, customer
accessibility and community focus, and clean. In 2019, these objectives expanded to include customer
engagement, integrating new technologies, and optimizing grid performance and investments after the
launch of the Michigan Power Grid Collaboration in partnership with the Michigan Governor’s Office. 18
DTE uses a “global prioritization model” to evaluate grid investments that align with the “best-fit, most
reasonable-cost” evaluation method described in DOE’s guidebook. The objective-driven DOE
framework also helped DTE identify that its 2021 Distribution Grid Plan did not adequately address its
“clean” and “customer accessibility and community focus” objectives, and future steps were discussed
to address this shortcoming. These steps include an update of the company’s global prioritization model
to include metrics produced by their energy justice screening tool. Lastly, in recognition that customer
expectations are growing more complex, DTE developed three scenarios to guide future planning,
focusing on high electrification of transport, buildings, and industry; increased frequency and intensity
of catastrophic storms; and high DER adoption (DTE 2021).
3.2 Integrated
Utility planning is typically siloed between generation, transmission, and distribution departments and
further siloed within the internal processes of those departments (NARUC 2018, Taft 2019). Modeling
capabilities, assumptions, and data availability often vary between and within departments. For
example, the asset management, capacity planning, area planning, and operations departments within a
distribution utility may propose investments that are not aligned with each other or with state and
utility objectives.
18
https://www.michigan.gov/mpsc/commission/workgroups/mi-power-grid.
21
NARUC-NASEO Task Force on Comprehensive Electricity System Planning 19
In 2018, the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) and the National
Association of State Energy Officials (NASEO) began a two-year effort to develop new approaches to
better align resource, transmission, and distribution system planning processes. The Task Force
comprised 15 states that were representative of U.S. geography, electricity market models, planning
approaches, and state goals. The effort developed tools, roadmaps, a document library and other
resources for all NARUC and NASEO members to adapt and refine for use in their respective states.
The Task Force created several roadmaps that represent different utility and market structures and
articulate approaches to achieving six goals:
• Establishing clear expectations
• Identifying better approaches for stakeholder engagement
• Encouraging cost-effective integration of DERs
• Coordinating data, assumptions, and modeling scenarios
• Expanding on the fundamentals of distribution system planning
• Acknowledging the contribution of efficiency as a resource
The Turquoise Roadmap most closely aligns with Duke Energy’s ISOP because it represents a state
that has investor-owned utilities who own generation assets, is located outside of an RTO/ISO market,
and is seeking to better align distribution, resource, and transmission planning processes. The
Turquoise Roadmap identified an idealized process for comprehensive electricity planning.
Duke Energy aspires to use ISOP to support joint generation, transmission, and distribution planning
decisions. Through collaborative efforts that include ISOP with its other planning teams, Duke Energy is
working toward refinements and upgrades of integrated utility control systems (e.g., energy
management systems, distribution management system, ADMS) that integrate both distributed
resources and customer programs into real-time systems that will optimize performance and long-term
planning frameworks for resource technical evaluations and comparative valuation assessments. Duke
Energy’s distribution and transmission planning functions interact on forecasts, coordinated planning,
interconnection studies, and key grid projects. These interactions are growing more robust in support of
some of the new initiatives being introduced in ISOP. The ISOP team has also made considerable
progress in aligning and integrating grid and distributed resource planning data through grid data quality
efforts and creation of the ISOP Data System, as noted previously. The current integration of IRP,
transmission planning, and ADP is a step in the right direction. Duke Energy intends to continue
developing and refining these tools and processes in a way that improves comparison of investment
alternatives, including non-traditional solutions, in these domains. This is an emerging challenge for
integrated processes like ISOP, and one for which there is no best practice available in the industry.
19 https://www.naruc.org/taskforce/.
22
Utility Examples
The Minnesota PUC’s decision on Xcel Energy’s most recent IDP filing requires discussion of how the
distribution system planning is coordinated with the integrated resource plan (including how it informs
and is informed by the IRP), and planned modifications or planned changes to the existing process to
improve coordination and integration between the two plans, including:
a. “Setting the forecasts for distributed energy resources consistently in its resource plan and its
Integrated Distribution Plan.
b. Conducting advanced forecasting to better project the levels of distributed energy resource
deployment at a feeder level, using Xcel’s advanced planning tool.
c. Proactively planning investments in hosting capacity and other necessary system capacity to
allow distributed generation and electric vehicle additions consistent with the forecast for
distributed energy resources.
d. Improving non-wires alternatives analysis, including market solicitations for deferral
opportunities to make sure Xcel can take advantage of distributed energy resources to address
discrete distribution system costs.
e. Planning for aggregated distributed energy resources to provide system value including
energy/capacity during peak hours.” 20
Xcel Energy points toward “fundamental differences” in IDP and IRP processes that make integration a
challenge in the near term. While IRPs focus largely on the size, type, and timing of new resources,
distribution planning requires a substantial focus on the location of resources, either at the feeder or a
more granular level (Xcel 2021). In addition, many of the issues addressed on the distribution system can
be more immediate in nature (e.g., thermal overloads, power quality violations, frequent outages, DER
interconnections) compared to the longer-term planning horizons used for bulk system resource
additions. At the same time, the planning horizon for distribution substations is sizable, and long-term
distribution planning is needed for core investments in grid modernization (e.g., outage management
system, distribution management system, SCADA) that provide a platform for a variety of applications
(e.g., DER management, volt/VAR management, advanced utility analytics) that can be added over time.
Load forecasting is an example where Xcel Energy is focusing on integration across planning processes.
The utility recently began implementing Integral Analytics’ spatial load forecasting tool, LoadSEER. Like
Duke Energy’s Morecast, LoadSEER provides capabilities for integrating data from multiple sources
beyond what has been used historically (e.g., SCADA and conventional customer usage data). LoadSEER
produces forecasts with the same hourly granularity as bulk system forecasts, improving accessibility to
forecasts across the utility’s planning groups and exporting forecasts directly to load-flow software like
Synergi Electric. LoadSEER can probabilistically estimate load growth across a given distribution feeder
to provide better understanding of locational and temporal impacts. 21
The distribution and bulk system planning groups at Xcel Energy meet at least twice a year. The
distribution team provides updated forecasts as inputs for transmission planning studies, although this
20
Minnesota PUC (2021), p.11.
21In the authors’ experience, utilities value LoadSEER’s spatial forecasting capability (i.e., forecasting downstream of circuit
breakers), but due to high data requirements they have not yet implemented that functionality.
23
remains a mostly manual process. In addition, the same system-level DER and EV forecasts are used in
all of their planning processes (Xcel 2021).
DTE is also building integration among planning processes. Team building between IRP and distribution
teams is encouraged and common planning objectives are identified as a joint team effort. For example,
the joint team worked together to implement conservation voltage reduction and Volt/VAR
Optimization (VVO) as a generation resource alternative and to develop systemwide capacity values.
Likewise, DER load forecasting is an area of continued collaboration. The IRP and distribution teams use
consistent assumptions and forecasting data sets (DTE 2021).
A key component of both Xcel Energy’s and DTE’s IDP efforts is implementing Advanced Distribution
Management System (ADMS) software. Such software can be a powerful tool in integrating into a single
system model and user interface multiple grid applications like Fault Location Isolation and Service
Restoration, VVO, AMI, Distributed Energy Resource Management Systems (DERMS), Grid Management
Systems, Energy Management Systems, Network Management Systems, and Outage Management
Systems. Integrating these applications provides a complete and integrated view of multiple utility
systems and helps ensure they operate synergistically (Xcel 2021, DTE 2021).
3.3 Transparent
Transparency in grid planning means that utilities publicly file detailed planning documentation; utility
regulators have insight into the utility’s strategies and planned investments in the short- and long-term;
and stakeholders and the public have access to and an understanding of planning processes,
assumptions, and decision frameworks that lead to utility investment decisions, and are given adequate
opportunities for input, review and comment.
Stakeholder engagement has been part of long-term utility planning (i.e., IRP) for decades. When well
designed, the benefits of stakeholder engagement are “better information, decreased risk, and smarter
solutions” (De Martini et al. 2016). However, it is relatively nascent for distribution system planning. Yet
people/communities are closest to distribution infrastructure, and that’s where most outages occur.
Stakeholder engagement can serve many purposes:
• Provide a venue for open discussion

• Improve the quality of regulatory proceedings and their outcomes
• Develop solutions with broad support
• Build trust among parties
The Public Service Commission of South Carolina does not require regulated electric utilities to file an
integrated distribution plan. Duke Energy files grid modernization and investment details in its Grid
Improvement Plans and rate case filings in South Carolina. The reporting frequency of these filings is
three years, as required by regulators and requested by stakeholders. Duke Energy currently provides
transparency in the ISOP process through both third-party- and company-moderated stakeholder
engagement events with Q&A, publicly available literature, web resources, and initiatives to build out
tools that inform interested stakeholders. Duke Energy is also using ISOP events to provide stakeholders
with details on data sources, modeling timeframes and resolutions, tools/software used, and areas
where further improvements are planned. Duke Energy’s efforts allow stakeholders a more
24
comprehensive view of investment decisions, a picture of planning processes that were once kept
confidential, and the opportunity to critique practices.
Duke Energy is providing stakeholders with insight and input on ISOP’s developing processes. Details
related to non-traditional screening and project evaluations have been shared and reviewed in sessions
with stakeholders who have expressed interest. There are active engagements related to grid hosting
capacity development and the Climate Risk and Resilience studies that are underway. The company will
be embarking on a more formal stakeholder engagement and detailed review of the non-traditional
solutions process and results based on a recent regulatory agreement in South Carolina (South Carolina
Public Service Commission 2023). With inclusion of additional ISOP elements in future IRPs, there will be
further opportunity to engage and share ISOP information with regulators and stakeholders.
Utility Examples
The Minnesota and Michigan regulatory commissions require regulated utilities to regularly file long-
term (longer than 10-year) distribution plans with revised planning and investment strategies, as needs
and objectives evolve. Requirements include stakeholder engagement.
The Minnesota PUC required Xcel Energy to file its first IDP in 2018 and annually thereafter (revised to
bi-annually after the 2019 IDP). Each plan must provide updated details on such components as the
current state of its distribution system, budgeted expenditures, DER forecasts, hosting capacity,
planning practices, grid needs assessment, non-wires alternatives considered, the changing planning
landscape, grid modernization strategy, and status of advanced grid initiatives. In a constantly evolving
landscape with significant uncertainty, these regular-interval revisions can provide a better
understanding of utility plans and timelines while also allowing stakeholders to hold the utility
accountable as timelines progress. Figure 4 shows a roadmap of Xcel Energy’s proposed investments
(Xcel 2021).
Figure 4. Xcel Energy (Minnesota) Distribution Investment Roadmap (Xcel 2021)
25
Xcel Energy is required to hold at least one stakeholder engagement meeting as part of its IDP process
(Minnesota PUC 2018). For its 2021 IDP, the company held two virtual stakeholder workshops focusing
on NWA analysis, where stakeholders could provide feedback on its practices. Part of this feedback
process was a “homework assignment” where participants could suggest quantifiable benefits and costs
for NWAs and provide guidance on integrating them into Xcel Energy’s future analyses. In the second
NWA workshop, Xcel reviewed the categories of stacked benefits and how they could be valued in the
future. As a result of this stakeholder input, the utility developed an improved NWA methodology to use
in the future.
As required by state law, Xcel Energy conducts HCA to identify interconnection points for small-scale
distributed generation and system upgrades to support development of these resources. The PUC
requires such analysis for new solar installations of 1 MW or less. The company uses EPRI’s DRIVE tool
for the analysis and prepares a heat map visual with additional pop-up data to guide developers. The
company is moving from annual to quarterly HCA updates. In addition to hosting capacity maps, the
utility provides a breakdown of its cost-benefit analysis for new grid investments. For example, Xcel
Energy’s 2021 IDP provided example calculations for its Distributed Intelligence and Resilient
Minneapolis Project initiatives (Xcel 2021).
The Michigan PSC required DTE to file its first distribution system plan in 2018 and every five years
thereafter (Michigan PSC 2018). DTE’s latest (2021) five-year investment plan includes a 10- to 15-year
vision with a technology roadmap that is developed using a global prioritization model (discussed in
Section 3.1). The company is implementing technologies outlined in its roadmap in an iterative manner,
such as building out an ADMS in phases and developing a DER Estimator tool to generate DER profiles
for NWA screens. The screens currently work only with “Energy Waste Reduction” (energy efficiency)
and demand response programs but will be extended to include energy storage, solar PV, managed EV
charging, and microgrids in the future. Similar to Duke Energy, DTE is in the early stages of an HCA tool.
It plans to start with high-level “go/no-go” assessments and transition to more detailed HCA using tools
like EPRI’s DRIVE software. Over time, the company plans to provide regular updates to its HCA maps
and integrate detailed findings from other studies and interconnection processes (DTE 2021).
The Michigan PSC supports strong stakeholder engagement in distribution planning proceedings,22 and
ongoing, iterative, and bi-directional stakeholder engagement is a fundamental component of DTE’s
planning process. For its 2021 IDP, the utility hosted a series of focus groups discussing current
perceptions of the company and soliciting reactions to grid modernization benefits. The focus groups
engaged residential and commercial customers and influential community leaders. In addition, feedback
from stakeholders with technical expertise was solicited through three webinars and 10 technical
discussions (DTE 2021).
3.4 Measurable
It is increasingly important that utilities use quantifiable metrics to identify realized benefits. A simple
example is a 10% reduction in SAIDI (System Average Interruption Duration Index) as a result of an
22 For example, in a 2020 order, the Commission directed three investor-owned utilities in the state to share draft distribution
plans with stakeholders prior to filing them with the Commission (Michigan PSC 2020). Commission Staff also holds workshops.
26
advanced tree-trimming initiative (IEEE 2012). 23 In some cases, however, new metrics may be needed to
identify new types of benefits that may be more difficult to quantify (e.g., community-level benefits
from local grid projects, energy equity, and justice).
Within the ISOP framework and available documentation, Duke Energy does not include metrics that can
be used to measure the predicted or realized success of a given ISOP investment. To date, ISOP
development has been focused on building systems and processes that provide more granular detail and
visibility into planning needs and the comparisons and valuations that are typically used for least-cost
planning studies; and to improve assessments for other planning processes where more of the
company’s metric-driven analysis is performed. As ISOP continues to develop, the need for new planning
metrics will likely be discovered and developed.
Utility Examples
Xcel Energy’s 2021 IDP provides an example of measuring the costs and benefits of certain IDP
applications. The company explored the predicted costs and benefits of AMI and Distributed Intelligence
(DI) capabilities (Figure 5). DI refers to the data collection and computing capabilities that AMI offers.
The IDP outlines multiple customer-facing and grid-facing use cases for the technology and provides a
breakdown of associated capital and operation and maintenance (O&M) expenses. Xcel Energy
calculated an estimated bill impact for the average residential customer (+$0.31 per month in 2026) and
a ratio of quantifiable benefits to costs of 0.93. The benefit/cost ratio indicates that the costs to
implement DI outweigh the potential benefits. The utility acknowledges that this calculation does not
consider several benefits that are more difficult to estimate, and benefits would likely improve with
additional use cases (Xcel 2021).
Figure 5. Xcel Energy (Minnesota) Distributed Intelligence Foundational Capabilities and Cost-
Benefit Analysis for Initial Use Cases (Net Present Value in Millions) (Xcel 2021)
DTE’s IDP also demonstrates measurable improvements for planned utility investments. For example,
the company reports that circuits in its new “Enhanced Tree Trimming Program” have, on average, 60%
fewer outages and shorter outage durations. In areas where tree trimming and infrastructure updates
are being made as part of DTE’s Customer Excellence program, customers have seen a 50–70%
23 See IEEE Guide for Electric Power Distribution Reliability Indices for more information on reliability standards.
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/6209381.
27
improvement in reliability. The company plans to continue these investments in pursuit of a 60%
improvement in SAIDI by 2030. Some costs and benefits are not easily quantifiable, such as the
“experiential burden” incurred by customers during long-duration outages and avoided outages. DTE
used Berkeley Lab’s ICE Calculator 24 to estimate interruption costs and benefits associated with
reliability improvements and is working to understand dual resilience and reliability benefits from
various investment strategies (DTE 2021).
4 Conclusion
Duke Energy aspires to use ISOP to support jointly optimal generation, transmission, and distribution
expansion decisions. For example, the utility plans to make ISOP capabilities such as Morecast, ADP, and
non-traditional solution evaluation consistent with generation and transmission planning in the IRP.
Duke Energy’s current integration of IRP, transmission planning, and ADP is a step in the right direction.
At the same time, there is no clear information on how the portfolio of planned investments across
these domains – including potential non-traditional solutions – will balance competing objectives such
as cost, risk, and reliability. This is an emerging challenge for processes like ISOP and one for which there
is no best practice available in the industry.
The project team identified several innovative aspects of ISOP:
• Duke Energy’s Morecast, combining native load with load changes from electrification, EVs and
DERs, is aligned with best practices in IDP and a recommendation in NARUC’s Integrated
Comprehensive Planning Framework. Duke Energy is an early adopter of this capability. In
addition to enabling automated distribution upgrades, it could enable integrated transmission
and distribution forecasts, and its 10-year horizon could allow Duke Energy to identify high
quality upgrade solutions.
• Duke Energy’s movement towards a highly granular forecast is a step in the right direction. New
electrification trends will introduce substantial modification of traditional load profiles over time
and the different rates of adoption of electrification within a feeder will create large differences
of load growth across space. Temporal and spatial granularity in forecasting will be critical for
capturing these trends and producing meaningful load forecasts that can be used by appropriate
models (see ADP, below).
• Duke Energy’s approach to considering contributions from DERs – i.e., evaluating resources to
determine their effective load carrying capability, aggregated to the system level – is a planning
best practice.
• Duke Energy’s use of automation in distribution system expansion analysis can speed up the
capacity expansion modeling process, examine multiple portfolios that an analysis may not
consider, and screen for novel solutions for manual processing. This is a cutting-edge practice
because there are not commercial modeling packages that perform automated modeling.
• Duke Energy’s ADP automates circuit upgrades downstream of substations. It is a best practice
that prepares the company for cost-effective constraint mitigation that will be needed with
increasing electrification, EVs, and DER. Duke Energy is an early adopter of this capability.
• Duke Energy plans to begin using DC power flow modeling to screen non-traditional solutions,
support resource siting, and better integrate generation and transmission planning. A DC
24 https://icecalculator.com/home.
28
optimal power flow “nodal” model can be used to assist with the capacity expansion process
and help ensure that results are robust when considering transmission constraints, thereby
facilitating the transmission planning process.
• Duke Energy’s ISOP Data System and grid map data allow its engineers to access data for
different forms of analysis. Although this capability may not seem noteworthy, many
distribution utilities store data in a collection of “silos” that can make sharing data between
departments challenging.
Duke Energy’s ISOP contains multiple core components of a typical IDP. Still, ISOP does not contain all of
the elements of IDP that a growing number of states are adopting to maintain and enhance reliability
and resilience and minimize electricity system costs. Instead, Duke Energy addresses several of these
components in separate processes, such as the IRP and Grid Improvement Plan, which complement
ISOP.
The following are opportunities for improving ISOP:
• Enable deeper stakeholder engagement. Duke Energy currently provides transparency in the
ISOP process through third-party and company-moderated stakeholder engagement events with
Q&A, publicly available literature, web resources, and initiatives to build out tools that inform
interested stakeholders. The company can enhance engagement with stakeholders by providing
more detail on methods and results and providing more formal channels for stakeholder
comments.
• Include a detailed discussion of ISOP in IRPs. While South Carolina state law does not require
utilities to file a distribution plan or ISOP with their IRPs, Duke Energy could include a more
detailed discussion of ISOP in forthcoming IRPs and make underlying data available to
stakeholders. Incorporating ISOP into the IRP more formally could create an opportunity for
more robust stakeholder engagement.
• Provide more information on how ISOP identifies investment decisions that are least cost and risk
for maintaining a reliable and resilient distribution system. Duke Energy could include a more
robust discussion of how it evaluates investment options in ISOP in its IRP or other relevant
filing, including the need for such investments.
• Move towards a spatially explicit forecast that predicts load distributed throughout the circuit
based on AMI and SCADA data. This rich dataset would enable targeted interventions, identify
hotspots, and support an advanced hosting capacity analysis.
• Integrate non-traditional solutions analysis into a capacity expansion optimization model. It does
not appear that Duke Energy is analyzing non-traditional solutions directly in its capacity
expansion model. While the model is not currently designed to select resource options at this
detailed level of grid analysis, the company can explore analytical methods to compare
traditional and non-traditional solutions.
• Include other DERs, including managed EV charging, in non-traditional solution analysis.
Currently, Duke Energy is only considering batteries in their non-traditional solution analysis.
• Account for all value streams in non-traditional solution analysis. Duke Energy’s value stack for
batteries currently includes bulk power system benefits.
• Explore the screening approach used by peer utilities to successfully identify non-wires
alternative projects. In the 2021/2022 non-traditional solutions planning cycle, Duke Energy
used four primary screening metrics. As discussed in Section 3.3, Xcel Energy in Minnesota
29
updated their NWA approach in their 2021 IDP. Several aspects of their screening approach,
such as timeframe and ownership model, load reduction requirement, and value streams were
updated.
• Continue to develop and enhance the HCA process. Duke Energy can incorporate HCA results
with load and DER forecasts through its distribution capacity planning processes to identify
feeders that are likely to see significant DER growth and to proactively consider distribution
system upgrades. The utility could provide some of this forecast information to customers and
DER developers to illustrate where demand flexibility might provide the most value on the grid
(Schwartz and Frick 2022).
• Improve distribution planning analytics and HCA capabilities to help inform customers and
developers about where smaller capacity distributed generation projects may be limited by the
constraints shown in Duke Energy’s DG Locational Guidance Map. For example, the company can
consider including portions of the distribution system that have net-metered distributed
generation and other distributed generation that is smaller than 250 kW. 25 The company also
can explore best practices, such as including EVs in HCA. 26 That would help Duke Energy,
customers, and third-party service providers identify locations on the grid that could support EV
charging or benefit from EVs discharging electricity back to the grid, or both.
• Explore best practices for maintaining accurate HCA maps. 27 Examples include ensuring that the
analysis is a well-documented, repeatable, transparent process with opportunities for feedback
and error identification; using scripted batch processes to automate analyses; and informing
assumptions with empirical data.
• Review recommendations in the Integrated Comprehensive Planning Framework for the
Turquoise Roadmap. The NARUC-NASEO Turquoise Roadmap reflects a forward-looking
integrated planning process for an illustrative state located outside of an RTO/ISO market that is
seeking to better align distribution, resource, and transmission planning processes and whose
investor-owned utilities own generation assets.
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Appendix A. Link to ISOP Process Diagram

Please cut and paste the following website into a browser window to access the diagram.
https://viewer.diagrams.net/?tags=%7B%7D&highlight=0000ff&edit=_blank&layers=1&nav=1&title=Duke_ISOP_final_Duke_Team_Review_Working_v1_221219-
remove%20climate%20plan.drawio#R7b1pc9s4tj%2F8aVRPeqqs4r68tGW7O3OTjm%2Fsydx53qRoiZI4oUQ1SXnpT%2F%2FHSgIgSIIUKcmJ3V2xRXEBgYOzn9%2BZmLPNy%2B9psFt%2FThZhPDG0xcvEvJ4YhuvZJvgFj7ziI6bl4gOrNFrgQ3p54D76OyQHNXJ0Hy3CjDsxT5I4j3b8wXmy3YbznDsWpGnyzJ%2B2TGL%2BqbtgFVYO3M%2BDuHr039EiX5OjuqaVX%2FwRRqs1ebRnky82AT2ZHMjWwSJ5Zg6ZNxNzliZJjv%2FavMzCGE4enRftdftJtz9d3V2vHr59%2B9dfF%2FbV5wt8s9sulxSvkIbbvPetn%2F5pPH%2F6%2FPUleJm
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33
Appendix B. ISOP Process Diagram Footnotes

Note 1:
The enterprise strategy guides the range of scenarios and available technologies that are considered in the
plans. SC ORS and NREL refer to DOE’s “DSPx” as a transparent, holistic, objective and performance
driven process that could be reviewed for consideration in continuing development of new ISOP elements.
https://gridarchitecture.pnnl.gov/modern-grid-distribution-project.aspx
Note 2:
ISOP has engaged stakeholders in face-to-face sessions and webinars, but the ORS team suggests there
may be greater stakeholder interest in aspects of the planning process. Noted that some components of
ISOP, such as the T&D NTS solutions, typically have a lot of stakeholder interest that require focused
attention and process transparency.
* Also noted by the ORS team that ISOP and IRP stakeholder engagement processes have not been fully
integrated, but more integration is planned.
Note 3:
* Noted that integration between the ISOP and IRP is in development and more integration is planned.
* Noted that some of the toolsets in the ISOP and IRP overlap. IRP, ISOP and Transmission Planning
collaborate on the bulk grid planning processes. The ISOP distribution processes (Morecast, ADP, hosting
capacity) and the T&D NTS processes have not yet been directly integrated with the IRP.
* Future scenarios developed in the IRP’s are shared with ISOP as a planning foundation. Aligning the full
scope of the IRP scenarios from bulk grid through to distribution is still in progress. IRP are updated every
two years and ISOP is being blended into the annual grid planning updates.
Note 4:
* The IRP and Carbon plan use same the workflows and tool sets. The main differences lie in the
assumptions and objectives used for each plan.
Note 5:
* The final asset management plans include annual prioritization of investments and are subject to
regulatory approval in rate proceedings.
Note 6: (T & D NTS in Bulk System Planning)
Contributions from distributed supply side resources like solar, solar plus storage and standalone storage
systems are evaluated to determine their ELCC which are aggregated up to the system level.
Note 7: (EnCompass in Bulk System Planning)
* https://anchor-power.com/encompass-power-planning-software/
* Duke plans to add EnCompass’ new DC powerflow to its planning toolset.
Note 8: (Bulk System Planning)
* Generation resource planning uses general zonal transmission representation which covers interface flow
limits. DC powerflow is currently being performed in some applications. In the future, these applications
will be expanded where needed to improve integrated generation and transmission planning
Note 9:
https://new.siemens.com/global/en/products/energy/energy-automation-and-smart-grid/pss-software/pss-
e.html
Note 10:
https://www.power-gem.com/TARA.html
Note 11:
https://www.hitachienergy.com/us/en/products-and-solutions/energy-portfolio-
management/enterprise/promod
https://www.poweranalyticssoftware.net/about.html
Note 12: (Bulk to MoreCast)
* The focus of bulk grid scenarios and distribution scenarios may be different in certain situations.
Additional ISOP integration will help achieve better alignment and consistency between T&D scenarios.
Note 13: (Bulk to MoreCast)
* Some inconsistencies naturally exist between circuit level and bulk grid forecasts since they may
reference different temperature/load assumptions and risk considerations. Bulk system planning utilizes
weather normalized load forecasts and incorporates reserve margins for weather and operational risks.
T&D grid planning typically utilize more demanding weather conditions and localized events to evaluate
potential for unreliable operating conditions. Both forecasts use similar PV, customer programs and energy
34
efficiency forecasts aligned with the bulk grid forecast. The full Morecast is not rolled up due to its circuit-
level focus and which would introduce accumulated error when aggregated across the bulk system.
Note 14: (MoreCast Scenarios)
* Policy requirements and sensitivity analysis are included in the Morecast scenario development, but
utilization in distribution planning is still in development.
Note 15: (Morecast AMI)
* AMI data are stored in a meter data management system and are not integrated with the ISOP data store,
but this is planned. Duke is in early stage of using AMI to help with forecasting.
Note 16: (MoreCast Metrix ND)
* Axciom, a customer intelligence company is used to estimate a locational adoption propensity scores.
https://www.acxiom.com/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=awareness&utm_cont
ent=g-
ad&gclid=Cj0KCQjwqoibBhDUARIsAH2OpWiSdMqRO1ioc5oDGv_cOsj6QADseRW5FpFc8peQStVnQ
MNpkwThUD4aArqyEALw_wcB
* PVsyst is used to design and assess PV output based using local weather.
https://www.pvsyst.com/features/
Note 17: (Morecast VAST)
*Duke is using VAST by Guidehouse to forecast EV adoption and charging infrastructure requirements
See: https://guidehouse.com/-/media/www/site/insights/energy/2022/guidehouseimproving-evse-networks--
vast-white-pape.pdf
https://bk-apps.shinyapps.io/siting-opt-and-stranded-assets/
* Noted: This tool does support EV adoption forecasting. Duke anticipates experiencing load increases
from several EV charging use cases, such as residential at-home charging.
Note 18: (Morecast)
* Morecast does provide capabilities for building multiple scenarios which are being developed and tested
for future implementation.
Note 19: (Morecast)
* Circuit level forecast.
Note 20: (Morecast)
Note 21: (Morecast)
Note 22: (Morecast Cust Programs)
* Duke has a “Bring your own thermostat” DSM program. Adoption of rate structures such as TOU, CPP,
PTR has been modeled in excel using adoption curves developed by Tierra and Dunsky for the Winter Peak
Study. The curves are adjusted to reach estimated program saturation points at differing future years to
provide base, low and high cases.
* Duke is still working on allocating region wide energy efficiency programs down to the specific circuit
level as part of continuing forecast development.
* Not mentioned: Inputs or details on “Bring your own thermostat” program
Note 23: (Morecast)
* Noted: Very little BTM storage has been adopted. New BTM storage customer programs are in early
development and testing.
Note 24: (Morecast Validation)
* Duke does backcasting and compares trends with the bulk forecast.
Note 25:
* The “Morecast” is repeated here to simplify the ISOP diagram.
* Morecast is an input to Distribution NTS project selection.
Note 26: (Morecast D NTS)
* ADP modeling addresses solutions at and below the circuit level, whereas the Duke NTS process (like
most utilities) focuses on the circuit level solutions. Project screening and criteria are different for ADP and
NTS solutions. ADP has a 10-year forward-looking horizon. NTS screening looks at projects further out
in time to include sufficient time to develop a DER solution, and solutions may span a longer timeframe (>
10 yrs) for deferral opportunities.
Note 27: (ADP)
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* Forecast spatial resolution is circuit level and sometimes courser. Downscaling is necessary for feeder
segment level analysis, which can affect analysis accuracy.
Note 28: (ADP)
* Secondary networks not currently modeled in ADP.
Note 29: (ADP)
* “Circuit Level” solutions are upgrades that occur at the feeder breaker or upstream. These solutions are
not automated.
Note 30: (ADP)
* Not mentioned: Operational strategies being considered in the automated solutions (e.g. DERMS, VVO,
etc.). Further exploration may be needed.
Note 31: (T&D NTS)
Contributions from distributed supply side resources like solar, solar plus storage and standalone storage
systems are evaluated to determine their ELCC which are aggregated up to the system level.
Note 32: (D NTS)
* ADP modeling addresses solutions at and below the circuit level, whereas the Duke NTS process (like
most utilities) focuses on the circuit level solutions. Project screening and criteria are different for ADP and
NTS solutions. ADP has a 10-year forward-looking horizon. NTS screening looks at projects further out
in time to include sufficient time to develop a DER solution, and solutions may span a longer timeframe (>
10 yrs) for deferral opportunities.
Note 33: (D NTS)
* Managed EV charging is not used as a NTS but V2G programs will be evaluated in the future after
information is collected in the emerging pilot programs.
Note 34: (D NTS)
* ITC, federal IIJA funding or carbon reduction funding could affect the NTS screen.
* The threshold value was set at $2M in 2022 but is reviewed each year and subject to change based on
battery costs and stacked benefit value updates.
Note 35: (T Planning)
* “Bulk System Planning” is repeated here to simplify the ISOP diagram.
Note 36: (T Planning)
* Assuming IRP/RA software are the same
Note 37: (T NTS)
* A carbon cost could affect the NTS screen. This will be addressed, as appropriate.
Note 38: (T NTS)
* Noted that selection criteria are different for NTS and traditional solutions.
Note 39: (Hosting Capacity)
* Hosting capacity capabilities are under development.
* Hosting capacity is planned to provide more detail to inform stakeholders.
* Noted that hosting capacity can be used to inform distribution planning.
Note 40: (Hosting Capacity)
* NREL noted that hosting capacity maps have a reputation for poor accuracy in the industry. Duke’s
process is still in development with stakeholder input to help guide information desired. NREL references
https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/81811.pdf for further information.
Note 41: (Data)
A great deal of the ISOP planning data is accessible through the ISOP data system. Initial focus for the
data system has been operating history and grid map data supporting Morecast and API development and
integration with the new ADP toolsets. New functionality continues to be developed to met additional new
applications as ISOP matures.
36
Appendix C. Duke Energy Responses to Project Team

Questions
From: Michael Rib, Director, ISOP Integrated Optimization, Duke Energy

To: Anthony Sandonato, South Carolina Office of Regulatory Staff
Natalie Mims Frick, Lawrence Berkley National Labs
On June 22, 2022, Duke Energy received a request from Anthony Sandonato, South Carolina Office of
Regulatory Staff, to participate in a review and discussions related to the Integrated Systems Operation
Planning (ISOP) process. As outlined in the description of the work below, staff from Lawrence Berkley
National Labs developed a set of questions to help frame the conversations and have requested written
responses to support the information exchange discussions they are planning on behalf of SC ORS.
North Carolina Public Staff has also been invited to participate. This is the description of the effort
provided with the request:
From: Juan Pablo Carvallo and Natalie Mims Frick (Lawrence Berkley National Lab)
RE: DRAFT Discussion questions on Duke Energy’s (ISOP Process)
This memo is pursuant to a request by staff of the South Carolina Office of Regulatory Staff for technical
assistance on reviewing Duke Energy’s ISOP process. Berkeley Lab is providing this assistance under the
Grid Modernization Lab Consortium project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy.
The South Carolina Office of Regulatory Staff (ORS) requested that Berkeley Lab review materials related
to Duke Energy’s ISOP process and develop questions to clarify Duke Energy’s inputs, interactions with
Duke Energy’s integrated resource plan, and overall implementation within the ISOP, with the goal of
providing guidance to ORS in their review of Duke Energy’s integrated resource plan which will include
components of the ISOP. ORS also identified that it would be most beneficial for Berkeley Lab to focus our
review on Duke Energy’s use of Morecast and Advance Distribution Planning (ADP).
Based on our review, we have developed the following questions which are organized into three
categories - general modeling, Morecast, and Advanced Distribution Planning (ADP).
Duke Energy offers these initial responses to the questions to support the information exchange
discussions that have been requested. Since this an informal information gathering process, the
information being shared is not considered confidential, but does reflect sensitive planning
development work that is in progress and subject to change and refinement and should not be
published without consent and review of the parties.
Responses to these questions have been gathered from key members of the ISOP team. Questions
related to these matters can be forwarded to Michael Rib, Director, ISOP Integrated Optimization at
Duke Energy.
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General Modeling
1. How does Duke Energy intend to combine the domain-level (e.g. generation, transmission,
distribution, and customer-side) optimization analysis into a single integrated portfolio of
solutions? How will Duke Energy prove that it is producing an optimal expansion plan when
combining analysis that may be addressing overlapping purposes?
Response: ISOP is viewing the industry and each segment of the business evolving in different
ways with each segment of the business having unique challenges to address. It will be
important for integrated utilities like Duke Energy to have visibility of the energy and reliability
contributions of resources connected at all levels of the system. In real time operations, the
utility will need to know what resources will be operating to ensure that at a system level, load
will be served and reliability requirements will be met. For long term planning, the utility
planners need to have reasonable forecasts of what the mix of resources will likely be across the
generation, transmission, distribution and customer segments of the business to integrate these
resources and to assess the cost and reliability aspects across the system. The current view held
in ISOP is that it will examine and estimate the operating capabilities, costs and values of new
distributed resources and use this information to examine optimization at the segment level as
they plan to meet their specific future requirements. This approach, coupled with stacked
valuation, will support integrated planning across the segments, help ensure reliable operations
and support appropriate value transfer for cost effective integrated system plans. ISOP is
working with all segments to explore how distributed resources will impact each of the
segments and what new tools and capabilities are needed to plan for the future states
envisioned.
2. What are the key decision variables from each planning model (ADP for distribution, Encompass
for generation, and the transmission expansion model)?
Response: Planning models focus on outcomes and priorities appropriate for each segment of
the business.
Generation: EnCompass is used in long term planning resource planning to support capacity
expansion planning and detailed production cost analysis focusing on making cost effective
resource decisions based on load, fuel, technology, emissions forecasts and constraints (e.g. CO2
emission reductions) over the planning horizon. SERVM is used to study key system reliability
variables to assess loss of load potential and to characterize the ELCC of different types of
resources.
Transmission: PSS/E and TARA are used extensively in long term transmission planning to
assess viability and operational reliability across a host of scenarios and contingencies. Studies
are performed to assess the capacity and reliability of the grid under normal and contingency
conditions in both near term and long term scenarios. In long term planning applications,
studies are performed to include different generation resource dispatch options and grid
configurations to support interconnection and generation portfolio analysis. PROMOD and PAT
are also used for hourly load flow simulations where applicable to supplement the long term
analysis and the Company has recently begun working with EnCompass to deploy their new
nodal model with DC power flow capability.
Distribution: The Advanced Distribution Planning (ADP) tools being used have been developed
around enhancements to the CYME modeling toolset. The current implementation allows
planners to evaluate distribution circuit capacity adequacy over a ten year planning horizon with
hourly load flow capability and to examine certain solution options to address overloads or
38
voltage deficiencies that are observed. The CYME modeling toolset is also used as it has been
traditionally used in the past to perform more detailed circuit reliability analysis based on time
periods identified by the planners. Plans for future ADP updates anticipate more integration
around circuit reliability analysis and support for grid hosting capacity analysis.
3. How does the ISOP consider rate-driven adoption of distributed energy resources (DER) as part
of the portfolio of solutions?
Response: Rate-driven adoption of customer DERs is currently modeled independently as
components of the net load forecast.
• PV - The customer-owned PV forecast is the product of a customer adoption forecast
and an average capacity value. Adoption forecasts are based on linear regression
modeling in Itron MetrixND using customer payback period as the primary independent
variable. Payback periods are a function of installed cost, regulatory incentives and
electric bill savings. Historical and projected technology costs are provided by
Guidehouse. Projected incentives and bill savings are based on current regulatory
policies and input from internal subject matter experts. Average capacity values are
based on trends in historical adoption.
• EV - For EV Adoptions we use the Guidehouse VAST Model which includes forecasts of
adoptions and energy profiles for LD and MD/HD EVs.
• BYOT – Customer adoption of rate-enabled/rate-driven DERs such as Bring Your Own
Thermostat (BYOT) is addressed as a component of customer programs forecasting and
included in the net load forecasts.
• Rates – adoption of rate structures such as TOU, CPP, PTR is modeled in excel using
adoption curves developed by Tierra and Dunsky for the Winter Peak Study. The curves
are adjusted to reach estimated program saturation points at differing future years to
provide base, low and high cases.
4. How do the models distinguish between customer and utility owned DER when producing an
optimal expansion plan? How does the difference in the operational profile from customer or
utility owned DER change and what does it depend on?
Response: Currently, in IRP modeling at the system level, customer owned DERs (including Net
Energy Metering [NEM] customer sited solar) are modeled as a component of the net load
forecast similar to energy efficiency and, thus, operates on a fixed profile forecasted for the type
of resource. Utility scale DERs that are configured for utility control are modeled in larger
“blocks” and the Encompass model is able to dispatch (or curtail, depending on contract
provisions) these assets as needed to meet system needs. Costs for future utility scale solar
resources that the planners include in the expansion planning phase represent both utility
owned and 3rd party contracted resources. These resources have the same operating profiles
and parameters in the modeling phase from an operability standpoint.
For specific ISOP analyses focused on non-traditional solutions to localized grid issues, both
utility and customer owned DER operations are considered as supply side or demand side
resources to address the grid issues under study. The Company is continuing to develop
analytical processes and systems which will speed the screening and modeling of localized non-
traditional solutions for future integration into the IRP expansion planning process. Careful
consideration is needed for the availability and capability of the non-traditional solution to
perform its intended function economically and reliably.
39
5. There are several software packages that allow for the analysis of joint generation-transmission
expansion to ensure coordination of these resources. This is especially valuable for vertically
integrated utilities like Duke Energy. Why does ISOP use separate models for transmission and
generation planning?
Response: There are always tradeoffs in model selection and planners in the industry generally
use different tools to perform detailed studies of generation and transmission and integrate
these results to inform and refine generation and transmission expansion options. The
EnCompass model currently being used for long term capacity expansion planning and detailed
production cost analysis performs extremely well with critical parameters around conventional
and renewable resource utilization, carbon mass cap emissions constraints and energy storage
system operations. EnCompass also incorporates transmission system details including load and
generation zones, interzonal flow limits and transmission upgrade cost estimates for each new
resource option that influence resource expansion results. The analyses performed with
EnCompass helps identify least cost resource plan portfolios informed with estimated
transmission system upgrade costs which provides an appropriate foundation for performing
the detailed transmission studies needed to examine resource placement, interconnection
requirements and grid configuration options. As noted in the response to Question 2, the
transmission analysis team utilizes PSS/E, TARA, PROMOD and PAT to perform the more detailed
grid configuration studies need to address their planning concerns. Given the complexity of
evaluating future system configurations and the importance of concurrently addressing system
reliability, environmental compliance and costs, the current modeling approach Duke Energy is
taking is appropriate. ISOP, IRP and Transmission Planning will continue to refine modeling
capabilities and evaluate new models as they become available that may be helpful in
supporting planning analysis in the future.
6. Bulk-power system expansion requires a resource adequacy analysis to ensure that the resulting
power system complies with minimum reliability standards. This is typically performed within
IRP, but doing so would miss on the resource adequacy contribution of non-traditional solutions
(NTS). How does Duke Energy plan to perform resource adequacy assessments in the context of
the ISOP, and what modeling approach will it utilize?
Response: Duke Energy continues to perform resource adequacy analysis at the system level for
long term planning. Contributions from distributed supply side resources like solar, solar plus
storage and standalone storage systems are evaluated to determine their ELCC which are
aggregated up to the system level. Contributions from demand side resources (e.g. customer
programs, EV’s and net metered solar) are currently incorporated into the load forecasts being
used for system level resource adequacy studies. In some applications, these supply and
demand side resources may be considered as NTS if they are being considered to perform grid
support functions. ISOP is also assisting Transmission and Distribution planners in developing
methods to assess contributions of supply and demand side resources toward the metrics for
grid capacity which is outside the traditional IRP perspective for resource adequacy.
Morecast
Duke Energy states that Morecast will produce 10-year hourly forecasts at the circuit level. Traditional
“system level” forecasts tend to have a bounded error because they average out over and under
estimation across the system. However, this will not happen with Morecast because it develops
individual circuit forecasts. The accumulated error on each circuit’s forecast may not average out
because decisions are being made for each circuit:
40
Response: Morecast forecasts are used to understand growth for planning at the circuit and/or bank
levels. Jurisdictional forecasts are still prepared to give insight to growth expectations at the bulk level.
We do not roll up Morecast to get a view of the jurisdiction as a whole due to the reasons you state. We
do however check to see that the Morecast forecasts and the jurisdictional forecasts complement each
other.
1. Given that forecasts are uncertain, how will Duke Energy create scenarios for the Morecast
process? How will Duke Energy make the Morecast scenarios consistent with scenarios
developed in other components of the ISOP?
Response: Scenario analysis will be informed by strategic initiatives or current events/policy
changes. Such scenarios may be performed at the bulk/jurisdictional level, the Granular
Morecast level, or both.
2. How will Duke Energy verify and validate the Morecast forecasts?
Response: We are going through many sets of validation to verify the forecasts. The forecast
team has set up review processes to ensure peaks and load shapes look reasonable compared to
history. We look at the trends of the load on the circuits to ensure we are comfortable with the
trend, and we look at the cumulative growth statistics to ensure the cumulative impact of the
circuit forecasts are in line with the jurisdictional forecasts.
Once the Morecast team is comfortable, there is an additional review process performed by the
distribution planners who are very familiar with the circuits. Recommendations received from
the planners are evaluated and included in the forecast as appropriate.
a. Will Duke Energy use back casting or a retrospective analysis to demonstrate the
accuracy of the forecasts at the circuit level?
Response: In preparing the forecast – back casting is one of the checks and balances we
run to ensure a proper fit of the models and the residuals are reasonable. We intend to
re-run forecasts at least annually, and forecast results are compared against previous
estimations in the review process
3. How does Duke Energy plan to manage circuit-level forecast accuracy when part of the solutions
imply shifting customers across circuits for balancing purposes?
Response: In preparing the forecasts, we attempt to identify when temporary switching has
occurred, and we remove that from the history used to forecast the circuit.
4. How does Duke Energy plan to leverage Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) data to
enhance the Morecast process?
Response: We are in the early stages of looking at use of AMI data to help our circuit level
forecasting activities. We are also looking at things like identifying EV charging or rooftop solar
on the circuit that may better inform the forecasting process and allow us to better understand
the load shapes on the circuit.
5. When referring to “circuit level” forecasts, does Duke Energy mean at the feeder head, at the
distribution transformer level, or for each customer within a feeder? What is the minimum unit
of analysis or resolution for Morecast forecasts?
Response: Feeder head.
6. How is the Morecast forecast different than the bulk power system load forecast?
41
Response: The main difference of course is the level of granularity. Per the responses to A and
B below, we attempt to align the two forecasts using consistent assumptions, and checks are
made to ensure both forecasts show similar growth trends.
a. Do they use consistent assumptions (e.g. economic growth, technology adoption)?
Response: Yes. Similar assumptions are shared across Morecast and the bulk level
forecasts.
b. How will Duke Energy ensure they produce consistent outputs?
Response: Part of the review process is to ensure growth rates in sales / peaks are
similar across both forecasts.
7. Using historical data for forecasting may prove inaccurate considering the technology options
and economic changes that customers are going through. What forecast model does Duke
Energy plan to use for “native” load forecast growth? Will Duke Energy consider a statistically
adjusted end use forecasting model instead of econometric or Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
types of models to prevent the continuity of historical trends that may not materialize?
Response: The bulk level/jurisdictional forecast uses a statistically adjusted end use model.
8. How does Duke Energy model DER and electric vehicle (EV) adoption trends?
Response: Duke Energy’s EV load forecast is derived using the Guidehouse developed Vehicle
Analytics and Simulation Tool (“VAST”). The forecast is developed for three vehicle types: light
duty, medium duty, and heavy duty. Multiple parameters are accounted for when developing
the EV adoption forecast including historical data, such as vehicle registrations and vehicle
utilization characteristics, as well as projections of future data including cost, vehicle availability,
charging infrastructure availability, and consumer acceptance. These EV adoption characteristics
and trends help shape the EV forecast which are incorporated into the Duke Energy load
forecast.
The rooftop solar generation (NEM) forecast is derived from a series of capacity forecasts and
hourly production profiles tailored to residential, commercial and industrial customer classes.
Each capacity forecast is the product of a customer adoption forecast and an average capacity
value. The adoption forecasts are developed using economic models of payback, which is a
function of installed cost, regulatory incentives, regulatory statutes and bill savings. A relationship
between payback and customer adoption is developed through regression modeling, with the
resulting regression equations used to predict future customer adoptions based on projected
payback curves.
Historical and projected technology costs are sourced from Guidehouse, while projected
incentives and bill savings are based on current regulatory policies as well as input from internal
subject matter experts. Average system size (capacity) values are based on trends in historical
adoption.
The hourly production profiles have 12x24 resolution, which equates to one 24-hour profile for
each month. Profiles are derived from actual production data, where available, and solar
photovoltaic (“PV”) modeling. The PV modeling is performed in the PVsyst model using 20+ years
of historical irradiance data sourced from Solar Anywhere and Solcast. Models are created for 13
irradiance locations across DEC’s service area and nine irradiance locations across DEP’s service
area with 21 tilt/azimuth configurations. The results for each jurisdiction are combined on a
weighted average basis to produce the final profiles.
42
a. How does Duke Energy consider existing and prospective policy requirements in these
adoption trends?
Response: For both EV and NEM forecasts, existing policy requirements are included in
the base forecast. For NEM, historic practice has been to model adoption based on
existing policies and tariffs at the time the forecast is developed. “Prospective” policy
requirements or stated policy goals are typically modeled in sensitivity analysis. For
example, the Company does not currently assume an extension of the solar ITC beyond
2023, but analyzes the impacts of a potential ITC extension in sensitivity analysis.
Similar to NEM, EV forecasts are based on existing policies at the time the forecast is
developed and stated goals are modeled in sensitivity analyses. For example, the
Company models the Biden Administrations goal of 50% of new vehicles being EVs by
2030 as an aggressive sensitivity rather than a base planning assumption.
b. EV adoption may be driven by policy as well as economic rationale. For many customers,
it will make economic sense to save on gas and maintenance and transition from an
internal combustion engine vehicle to an EV. How does Duke Energy plan to model EV
adoption in terms of its costs and benefits vis a vis internal combustion engines?
Response: When the EV forecast is developed, the VAST algorithm accounts for
projections of battery costs, battery sizes, fuel cost, VMT, vehicle efficiency, vehicle
utilization, average vehicle cost, etc. and weighs those factors against the cost of
traditional ICEV to help determine vehicle adoption.
c. How will Duke Energy model the socioeconomic aspects of DER adoption, in particular
their disparate location within the distribution system that can create local hotspots in
secondary and primary distribution systems?
Response: For Rooftop solar - we allocate based on propensity scores which are
calculated using the Acxiom data, billing history, etc. For EV’s we use information from
the VAST tool that predict adoption by zip code.
9. How will Duke Energy model EV charging levels, location, and timing?
Response: Duke will use the VAST tool to help forecast chargers and their potential impacts
using multiple variables including but not limited to: vehicle forecast, VMT, existing charging
infrastructure, traffic data, charger-to-vehicle rations, charging siting distance thresholds, and
other variables. This data helps determine the number of chargers, possible locations of
chargers, and the timing of when those chargers would be needed.
a. How many charging strategies will Duke Energy consider?
Response: Currently the Company models charging behavior based on existing rate
designs. The Company is evaluating new managed EV charging rate design options, but
at this point, the impacts of those potential options have not been modeled.
b. Will Duke Energy treat different charging strategies as non-wires alternatives (NWA) or
demand response? If, so how will Duke Energy model their costs as inputs?
Response: Charging strategies are not currently being viewed as non-wires alternatives
or demand response programs. The Companies will continue to evaluate results of EV
rate program pilots, EV customer charging/use patterns, and receptivity to offerings
which could enable use of EVs as a grid edge resource.
43
c. What is the source of Duke Energy’s data to model trip distance and charging location?
Response: Duke uses the Federal Highway Administration data for VMT and annual
average daily traffic, Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC) for charging infrastructure,
and Guidehouse data for the charging site distance threshold.
10. How will Duke Energy establish the baseline for DER technology penetration within its customer
base? Will Duke Energy use customer surveys that show the existing number of DER/EV/DR/EE
at a sample of customers? If not, how does Duke Energy plan to characterize the baseline of
customer-side technologies?
Response: For rooftop solar, the Company pulls interconnection requests for residential and
non-residential customers planning to install behind the meter solar at a point in time when
developing the forecast. The interconnection requests include system size, location, and
whether the request includes addition of behind the meter storage with the solar system. The
Company applies a materialization rate of connections to the interconnection requests based on
historic materialization rates.
For EVs, the Company relies on registration data sourced from IHS Markit for current light duty
vehicles in the Company’s service territory at the zip code level. For medium duty and heavy
duty vehicle adoption the Company relies on announcement of fleet electrification, as well as,
internal Company sources.
For demand response and EE programs, the current regulatory framework provides for a
comprehensive assessment of potential program options and participation rates which are used
in program design and implementation. The Company will continue to leverage these efforts
and ongoing engagement with the Carolinas EE/DSM Collaborative to evaluate new customer
programs and technology options in the future.
ADP
1. Does ADP consider operational strategies as well as investment strategies? If so, how will ADP
integrate both types of strategies to produce an optimal decision?
Response: ADP is being deployed in the Carolinas using a phased approach in 2021. An
overview of current ADP functionalities is provided below.
• ADP automates load flow analyses using a 10-year hourly circuit forecast and grid topology
information, such as analysis limits, equipment types, ratings, etc. Like traditional load flow
analyses, the tool analyzes the potential for thermal overloads and voltage issues.
• When thermal overloads and/or voltage issues arise, ADP proposes simple solutions (with
costs) for traditional capacity upgrades that can include new voltage regulators,
reconductoring, load transfers, and load balancing. It doesn’t suggest adding a new
substation or breaker, since ADP is based on existing infrastructure. From there, the planner
can select a preferred solution proposed by ADP (including costs) or can cost out a new
solution that is not proposed by ADP if constraints prevent the solution proposed by ADP.
• ADP allows the analysis of multiple circuits at the same time for optimal location of
switching devices.
• In addition to automated load flow analyses and solution, ADP capabilities include a load
flow analysis to provide insights about when batteries can be used in peak-shaving
applications. These battery analyses focus on resolving the circuit issue rather than defining
strategies for battery operation or control.
44
2. Does the ADP modeling framework include automated upgrades to compare NWA against
traditional expansion?
Response: The ADP modeling framework includes new algorithmic abilities to size and locate
batteries to compare as a Non-Traditional Solution (NTS) against traditional capacity expansion.
From there, the cost and bulk system benefits of an NTS is compared against the costs of a
traditional capacity expansion project.
a. If yes, how does the model incorporate NWA benefits that are outside/upstream of the
distribution system?
Response: Bulk system benefits that are upstream of the distribution system are
considered through an NTS screening process that uses ADP-generated battery sizing.
This NTS screening process occurs outside of ADP using the ADP outputs.
b. If the NWA includes a behavioral element, how does ADP model this aspect?
Response: Duke Energy is evaluating customer programs as an NTS to avoid capacity
upgrades. If such a solution seems feasible, it would need to be modeled in ADP to
confirm that it would address the capacity constraints. Current evaluation methods are
focused on use of customer programs as a hybrid NWA where impacts from increased
adoption of existing or new customer programs can offset a portion of the battery
capacity or energy requirement.
The characteristics of customer programs and EV adoption that reflect the behavioral
elements are represented in the circuit forecasts that are used as inputs to the
automated load flow analyses in ADP.
c. Does NWA include rate options? If so, how are these modeled?
Response: Rate-driven adoption of customer DERs is currently addressed as
components of the net load forecasts used in modeling, as outlined in General
Modeling, Question 3.
3. What variables does ADP use to identify issues on a circuit?
Response: ADP automates load flow analyses using a 10-year hourly circuit forecast and grid
topology information, such as analysis limits, wire sizes, equipment types, ratings, etc. Like
traditional load flow analyses, the tool analyzes the potential for thermal overloads and voltage
issues.
4. How does ADP map issues to solutions?
Response: When ADP identifies a constraint, it provides a list of solutions that map to the
constraint (or ADP will show that no solution can be found for the specific constraint). Along
with the circuit ID, an equipment and device ID is mapped to each constraint that feeds into the
solutioning.
5. Does ADP include circuit rebalancing or reconfiguration (including customer switching) as an
option?
Response: ADP includes circuit rebalancing or reconfiguration of Duke Energy equipment but
does not model customer switching that happens beyond the point of delivery.
45
a. How does ADP simulate the reliability of the resulting distribution circuit after the ADP
expansion optimization? Does ADP capture the resilience benefits of NWA compared to
traditional solutions? If so, how?
Response: ADP does not evaluate reliability when examining capacity needs, so
reliability benefits are not captured for traditional solutions or NTS.
6. Does ADP implementation eliminate the need for hosting capacity analysis (e.g. ADP accounts
for all alternatives to integrate DER)?
Response: No. ADP provides a base automation and solution framework that provides the
foundation for hosting capacity analysis, which is due in NC by the end of 2024. Duke Energy
only accounts for capacity NTS through ADP. Other alternatives to integrate DER (e.g. for
reliability purposes or to provide transmission solutions), are considered through different
planning processes.
7. Will ADP distinguish between solutions to prevent load flow deficiencies versus solutions to
improve reliability, both in failure rates as well as restoration rates? If so, how?
Response: ADP is currently used for addressing capacity and voltage constraints, rather than
reliability.
8. If the ADP identifies that an investment is needed to improve circuit reliability, will ADP use a
value of lost load to monetize the benefits to the customer or will it be based on meeting a
specific SAIDI or SAIFI criteria per circuit or per customer?
Response: ADP addresses capacity constraints and does not consider the option of having
unmet load in traditional solutions or NTS.
9. According to the South Carolina Grid Improvement Plan, ADP will capture the generation and
transmission stacked benefits of DERs.
Response: The initial release of the ADP toolset includes a battery storage analysis module to
enable planners to assess the size and location of batteries to address overloads that are
observed in their studies. Planners will then work with ISOP to further evaluate the technical
and economic merits of these potential applications. ISOP NTS screening metrics will help
planners and the ISOP team identify which candidates warrant further attention. ISOP is
currently performing NTS screening for battery storage, and as ISOP capabilities continue to
develop, other additional NTS options like customer programs will be considered for integration.
a. How will generation and transmission benefits be calculated and used in the NWA
evaluation process?
Response: As noted, ISOP is initially focusing on storage applications. The value
streams associated with potential storage projects include contributions to system
capacity needs (i.e. resource adequacy), production cost savings potential for energy
arbitrage and ancillary services (including regulation and contingency reserves), and
potential to defer transmission and/or distribution system upgrades. Each potential
project is considered in terms of its ability to support each of these value streams or
services based on the expected use case and connectivity. Contributions to system
capacity are addressed using the ELCC methodology outlined in the Carbon Plan.
Potential production cost savings are estimated using a “proxy value” process which
leverages results from specialized modeling and analysis performed using the
46
EnCompass model. Potential to defer transmission and/or distribution upgrade projects

is evaluated on a case by case basis, working closely with the respective grid planners.
b. How will Duke Energy ensure that the calculated generation and transmission benefits
are consistent with the outcome of the parallel generation and transmission planning
that are considered part of the ISOP framework?
Response: Utilizing the ELCC methodology for capacity analysis and the “proxy values”
process based on EnCompass help align the value of these resources across distribution,
transmission and generation.
10. ADP can facilitate the analysis of multiple alternative forecasts to encompass a wide range of
possible futures.
Response: Yes, ADP can incorporate multiple forecasts from Morecast (e.g. normal vs. severe
weather, impact of PV/EV/EE) by selecting which variables from the Morecast to turn on or off.
The scenarios of weather or adoption of PV, EV, and EE are generated within Morecast, and ADP
incorporates those scenarios to derive the projected capacity constraints.
a. Will the scenarios be produced for use in Morecast or in ADP?
Response: For consistency in investment decision making, the forecasts used in ADP for
each jurisdiction are based on a consistent set of assumptions. However, ADP has the
capability to evaluate forecast scenarios based on different assumptions. These
scenarios are produced in Morecast and can then be incorporated into ADP. The
scenarios are created through multiple alternative forecasts.
b. How will Duke Energy create these scenarios? What variables will be included? How will
Duke Energy manage the potential thousands of combinations?
Response: As mentioned under the Morecast questions (#1), any scenario performed
will be informed by strategic initiatives or current events/policy changes. The variable(s)
altered will be the outcome of many conversations and will be documented so all
parties understand the parameters of the scenario. We would not look to create
thousands of combinations, but instead be more strategic in our focus on altering those
items we want to study.
11. Does ADP model both primary and secondary distribution systems, including transformer
loading and location?
Response: ADP does not model the secondary distribution system for capacity constraints.
However, ADP estimates transformer loading based on customer count and usage, and the
location of transformers is known in ADP through GIS data.
a. A traditional distribution system analysis focuses on reducing losses by extending the
primary voltage system and reducing the extent of the relatively inefficient secondary
system. Will ADP develop this process automatically? If so, how does this process
interact with other loss-reduction approaches, especially NWA?
Response: ADP will propose extending primary, but only due to the primary being
overloaded, rather than to address system losses.
12. The operational performance of NWA will depend on whether it is customer- or utility-owned.
When ADP is considering a NWA, does it assume that it is customer-owned or utility-owned?
What does this depend on?
47
Response: For customer-owned resources behind the meter, operational attributes may be
treated as a load characteristic if they are within the customers’ control, or as dispatchable
resources if they are integrated into dispatchable customer programs by the utility. ADP isn’t
currently used for resource commitment and dispatching, so the resources are more simply
included as either supply side resource in ADP or demand side resources in Morecast. ADP is
also currently being used to study battery storage options as a NTS using a new battery sizing
module which does not differentiate ownership for grid tied storage.
13. What are the data sources for cost assumptions required to simulate and compare traditional
solutions and NWA?
Response: ISOP and distribution planning both rely on their planning data resources for
screening and more detailed analysis of NTS candidates.
a. What is Duke Energy’s data source for distribution expansion costs, both capital and
labor?
Response: Each jurisdiction has a cost sheet that is updated regularly and shared with
planning organizations. These cost sheets use up-to-date cost information based on
work orders, material costs, etc.
b. What is Duke Energy’s data source for DER capital costs?
Response: ISOP utilizes cost estimating tools that are developed with the IRP team to
help ensure consistent application of technology costs in planning. As part of the suite
of planning cost estimating tools, ISOP utilizes the IRP group’s generic technology costs
that are included in the IRP process. ISOP also utilizes tools supported by Guidehouse
which are part of the IRP framework for more detailed cost estimates for solar and
storage resources at DER scale, when appropriate.
14. How will Duke Energy create portfolios of NTS for comparison with traditional solutions when
assessing system needs?
Response: ISOP has developed and continues to refine an NTS screening approach which
dovetails with the traditional transmission and distribution planning processes to identify
potential NTS applications that warrant further detailed consideration. As each of those
candidates are considered, the Company can identify opportunities where an NTS appears to be
cost effective compared with traditional options in that segment. As previously noted, most of
ISOP’s focus has been on storage initially, but this will begin to expand to include other options
in the future.
a. How will Duke Energy prove the NTS portfolio is the optimal, least-cost solution across
planning domains?
Response: The NTS candidates noted in response to Q14 will be further reviewed by
ISOP to see how they compare with options in the other business segments to see which
may be most cost effective at meeting needs at the system level. Using value metrics
that are aligned at the system level, as outlined in Q9, will help ensure that the
comparisons are reasonable.
b. How will Duke Energy compare NTS and traditional solutions that have different value
streams (e.g. addressing a generation capacity need with NTS may also have
transmission and distribution benefits)?
48
Response: As noted in the response to Q9, the value streams being assessed are based
on system aligned values and the contributions are being considered on a case by case
basis to assess applicability. Where provision of services has potential to conflict (e.g.
prioritizing addressing a local grid overload over a system capacity need), adjustments
will be estimated for the affected services. Where other factors differ, the planning
analysis will stive to make the comparison equitable. Comparisons have been made on
a PV of revenue requirements basis which allows for estimating the values for deferring
traditional solutions.
c. Is there an assumption that Duke Energy is revenue-neutral regarding NTS versus
traditional solutions? How will Duke Energy consider an investment (with potential to
rate base costs) compared to a NTS that has no or reduced investment?
Response: The Company is assessing options from a revenue requirements standpoint
which would include different avenues for addressing costs including investments,
deferrals and/or contracted services. It also accounts for system operating cost savings
from whatever resource options are being considered.
49

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TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TO STATE PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSIONS

Duke Energy’s Integrated System and Operations

Prepared for the South Carolina Office of Regulatory Staff

Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory is an equal opportunity employer.

Figure 1. Power system domains included in the ISOP framework

Generation, Transmission, Distribution, and Demand-Side Domains

Integrated Distribution System Planning (U.S. DOE 2020)

Identifying IDP Objectives (U.S. DOE 2020)1

IDP Goals and Requirements (Regulatory Assistance Project 2023)

1.1 Using This Report

1.2 Accessing the ISOP Process Diagram

Accessing the ISOP Process Diagram

2 Observations About Duke Energy’s Integrated

DER and Load Forecasts (U.S. DOE 2020)

Several components of Morecast are in development or under evaluation:

be filed in Docket No. 2023-8-E).

Distribution Planning Load Forecasts (U.S DOE 2020)

2.2 Advanced Distribution Planning and Distribution Non-

• Ideally, non-traditional solutions would be fully integrated into a capacity expansion

2.3 Integrated Resource Planning

Integrated Resource Planning (U.S. DOE 2020)

2.4 Transmission Planning

11FERC Glossary. https://www.ferc.gov/industries-data/resources/public-reference-room/ferc-glossary.

2.5 Hosting Capacity

Hosting Capacity Analysis (U.S. DOE 2020)

2.6 ISOP Data System

3 Assessing ISOP Based on Best Practices for

15 For example, see https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/81811.pdf.

Importance of Planning (U.S. DOE 2020)

Commission to promulgate rules regarding such a plan).

guidebook provides an objective-driven framework for improving objectivity in grid planning

Key Concepts for DSP Process (U.S. DOE 2020)

Duke Energy Activities

NARUC-NASEO Task Force on Comprehensive Electricity System Planning 19

Duke Energy Activities

• Provide a venue for open discussion

Duke Energy Activities

Figure 4. Xcel Energy (Minnesota) Distribution Investment Roadmap (Xcel 2021)

Duke Energy Activities

The project team identified several innovative aspects of ISOP:

The following are opportunities for improving ISOP:

Duke Energy 2018. Grid Improvement Plan.

Duke Energy. 2022 Climate Adaptation Plan. 2022.

Duke Energy. ISOP Stakeholder Meeting. 2023.

Duke Energy Progress (DEP). 2018 Integrated Resource Plan. 2018.

DEP. 2022 Integrated Resource Plan. Docket 2019-225-E. 2022

Edison Electric Institute. Industry Capital Expenditures. 2021. https://go.lbl.gov/tv3q32

other related, uncontested matters. Case No. U-20147. 2020. https://mi-

National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC). Task Force on Comprehensive

Volkmann, C. Integrated Distribution Planning: A Path Forward. 2019. https://gridlab.org/wp-

Appendix A. Link to ISOP Process Diagram

Appendix B. ISOP Process Diagram Footnotes

Appendix C. Duke Energy Responses to Project Team

From: Michael Rib, Director, ISOP Integrated Optimization, Duke Energy

EnCompass model. Potential to defer transmission and/or distribution upgrade projects

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