09 October 2023 Company Update

Trent
Suspended disbelief! SELL
Trent’s relentless focus on improving its value proposition is evident in its
CMP (as on 06 Oct 2023) INR 2,072
financials. Across formats (Westside, Zudio and Star), the benefits of sourcing
margins continue to be passed on to end consumers, and retailing costs have Target Price INR 1,370
significantly decreased. That said, CMP suggests investors seem to have suspended NIFTY 19,654
disbelief regarding the sustenance of KPIs/earnings power because (1) Zudio’s sales
density seems stretched at ~INR18k/sq. ft. (our proprietary store map suggests KEY
OLD NEW
expansion beyond two years is likely to come at lower sales density, ergo, lower CHANGES
unit economics) and (2) ~58% of FY22+FY23 PAT came from Inditex dividends and Rating SELL SELL
mark-ups on fixed assets sold to franchisees; these seem unlikely to sustain over
Price Target INR 1,350 INR1,370
the medium-to-long term (at least the quantum). We build in revenue/PBT CAGR
of 27/12% respectively and our SOTP-based TP stands at INR1,370/sh. FY25E FY26E
EBITDA %
 Focus on improving value proposition evident: Across formats, Trent has been - -
consistently improving its value proposition to increase its TAM by passing on
sourcing margin benefits (along with improving selection) to consumers and in KEY STOCK DATA
turn being rewarded via higher footfall density. Note EBITDAM has only
Bloomberg code TRENT IN
improved as a consequence of this strategy (Westside’s GM has declined ~500bps
from 60% to 55%; despite this, Pre-IND AS 116 EBITDAM expanded by 200bps No. of Shares (mn) 355
over FY18-23). Zudio has followed suit. Both formats have seen a reduction in the MCap (INR bn) / ($ mn) 737/9,007
cost of retailing. Star (grocery) too has improved on cost efficiencies (GM
6m avg traded value (INR mn) 1,068
contracted by 120bps but EBITDAM improved from -11% to -4% over FY18-23).
 Zudio’s blitz-scaling may at best have a two-year window: While management 52 Week high / low INR 2,185/1,155

highlighted that it intends to add 200 Zudio stores in FY24, our proprietary store
map suggests that at that pace Zudio could at best have a two-year window to STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)
continue its blitz-scale (potential: 291 additions in the top 12 districts; this is 3M 6M 12M
assuming a 15% share in catchment bills—generous assumption in our view—
Absolute (%) 18.1 51.6 43.2
refer table below:). Further addition within the top districts or beyond could
potentially be unit-economics dilutive as sales density drops and inventory turns Relative (%) 17.8 41.3 29.8
inch down.
 What’s up with Zara? In FY22/23, Zara cumulatively paid dividends of INR5.2bn SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
(Trent’s share: INR 2.55bn). This accounts for 126% of cumulative PAT. Ambitions Mar-23 Jun-23
to expand seem absent (flat over FY18-23 @ 20 stores; 16% revenue CAGR—All
SSSG-led). Against this backdrop, elevated dividend payouts could mean one of Promoters 37.01 37.01
two things: (1) Zara liquidates the JV gradually; (2) maintains status quo/guns for FIs & Local MFs 8.91 9.14
measured growth, In either case; one could argue that Zara’s valuation stencils
FPIs 24.43 25.01
must be realigned from growth multiples assigned for the JV in Trent’s SOTP to
net asset value. Note: Inditex Trent JV accounts for 20%+ of our fair value for Public & Others 29.65 28.84
Trent. A third option of Zara pivoting to expansion could mean lowering Pledged Shares 0 0
dividend payouts, thereby lowering standalone PAT (dividends accounted for
Source : BSE
27% of FY23 standalone PAT).
 On profitability: In FY23, Zudio’s EBITM was ~7%. We suspect half of Zudio’s
Pledged shares as % of total shares

margin is contributed via mark-ups on fixed assets sold to the franchisee

(~INR1.35bn). Sustainability of such mark-ups in the wake of rising competition
seems suspect. This coupled with normalizing Inditex dividend payouts could
mean PBT growth could lag revenue growth meaningfully. We build in
revenue/PBT CAGR of 27/12% respectively over FY23-26.
 Outlook: Trent continues to run circles around peers in terms of growth. Its Jay Gandhi
disciplined working capital management and well-capitalised balance sheet [email protected]
remain best-in-class. However, its heady valuation (77x Sep-25 EV/EBITDA— +91-22-6171-7320
consolidated) restrains us from becoming constructive on the stock. Hence, we
maintain SELL with a SOTP-based TP of INR 1,370/sh. Tanuj Pandia
[email protected]
+91-22-6171-7348

HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters
Trent Ltd: Company Update

Financial Summary (INR mn)

FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26
Net Sales 38,807 77,152 1,01,249 1,33,202 1,56,517
EBITDA 6,335 11,193 13,289 16,697 20,517
APAT 2,628 5,546 5,266 6,033 7,450
Dil. EPS (Rs/sh) 7.4 15.6 14.8 17.0 21.0
P/E (x) 278.3 131.9 138.9 121.2 98.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 115.0 65.3 54.9 43.5 35.2
ROE (%) 10.0 19.1 16.1 16.3 17.7
ROCE (%) 16.2 23.1 19.0 18.9 19.3

Our SOTP suggests a fair value of INR1,370/sh

EBITDA, Equity
EV (Rs
INR mn Methodology Multiple PAT or Value Per share
mn)
Sales (Rs. Mn)
EV/EBITDAR
Standalone Biz 20 18,607 3,72,139 1,047
(x)
THPL (Star) EV/Sales 2 26,381 26,381 74
FHL EV/Sales 2 2,289 3,016 8
Zara P/E 50 1,664 83,191 234
Consol Enterprise Value 48,940 4,84,726 1,364
Net Debt (2,131) -6
Consol Equity Value 4,86,857 1,370

CMP 2,065
Upside (%) (33.7)

Page | 2
Trent Ltd: Company Update

Story in Charts
Trent is amongst the most exciting growth stories in …Zudio did most of the heavy-lifting
retail (grew at 30% CAGR over FY18-23)…

Source: HSIE Research Source: Companies, HSIE Research, (Universe: 23 footwear companies
comprising 75%+ of organized pie)

Zudio’s franchisee-led blitz-scaling has been key to Trent’s FY18-23 swing in return ratios
20000 60
55
15000 50
40
10000
30
5000
20
0 10
6 13
-5000 3 -
Revenue/sq. EBITDA/sq. ft Revenue/sq. EBITDA/sq. ft Gross Block
ft (INR) (INR) ft (INR) (INR)
Westside Zudio Standalone

FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY18-23 CAGR (%)

Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research

Dividend + Profit from fixed asset sale comprises 50%+ …if one excludes these, then return ratios aren’t as
of FY23 PAT… exciting as made out to be
27.8

27.1

22.6
22.2

17.2
16.8

15.9

15.2

30.0
14.7

14.5

13.2

20.0 12.1 12.0

7.2

8.6 8.5
10.0 5.1 2.8
-
(10.0) (2.0) (2.5)
investments in

investments in

investments in

investments in
subs/JVs)#

subs/JVs)#
RoCE (ex-

RoCE (ex-
subs/JVs)

subs/JVs)
RoIC (ex-

RoIC (ex-

FY19 FY20 FY21 Excl. Dividend

FY22 FY23 income/Profit from
fixed asset sale

Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research

Page | 3
 Trent Ltd: Company Update

Trent is estimated to be selling fixed assets to franchisee owners at a In FY22/23, Inditex’s dividend payments exceed PAT (Unlikely to sustain
hefty mark-up at these levels; unless it intends to exit the JV)
Particulars (INR mn) FY22 FY23 Particular (INR
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
mn)
A Cost of Asset sold 925 1,588
Profit of Trent
1,167 1,279 1,546 -447 2,628 5,546
B Less: Acc. Depreciation 248 331 (Std)
C Net Asset (A - B) 678 1,257 Inditex' PAT 826 715 1,041 -413 1,488 2,643

D Amount received on Sale of Asset 570 2,806 Dividend

- - 300 97 2,200 3,000
Declared/paid
E Profit on sale of asset (Calculated) (C - D) -107 1,549 Trent Share in
- - 147 48 1,078 1,470
F Profit on sale of asset (as per P&L) 81 1,348 Dividends

G Timing difference (E - F) -189 201 Inditex' Net worth 4,056 4,773 5,514 5,004 4,291 3,928

H Adjusted Sale Value (D - G) 759 2,605 Inditex' FCFF -53 186 1,491 189 1,933 3,826

Margin on Cost of asset - Gross {(H/A)- Dividend (% of

I -18% 64% - - 29 -23 148 114
1}*100 PAT)
Margin on Cost of asset - Net {(H/C)- Dividend (As % of
J 12% 107% - - 20 51 114 69
1}*100 FCFF)
Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research

Our store map suggests Zudio’s blitz-scale may have a 2-year window. Post that high sales density could be challenged
FY23
FY23 Target Potential Zudio as %
Est. Potential Target Zudio:Westsi
Zudio Est. buyer Store of total VF
District Westside buyer Buyers Stores de Ratio
stores buyer share Additions stores in
share (mn) (#) (FY23)
(mn) (%) (#) district
(%)
Delhi 6 8 0.2 1.1 15.0 3 86 80 18 0.8
Mumbai Suburban 8 10 0.3 2.5 15.0 2 48 40 12 0.8
Chennai 10 10 0.4 6.3 15.0 1 24 14 9 1.0
Thane (includes Palghar) 28 8 1.0 7.4 15.0 2 56 28 36 3.5
Pune 23 11 0.8 7.2 15.0 2 48 25 25 2.1
Ahmadabad 22 10 0.8 9.0 15.0 1 37 15 35 2.2
Hyderabad 32 16 1.1 23.9 23.9 1 20 - 24 2.0
Bangalore 31 18 1.1 9.5 15.0 2 49 18 17 1.7
Kolkata 9 7 0.3 5.9 15.0 1 23 14 12 1.3
Surat 12 5 0.4 5.8 15.0 1 31 19 44 2.4
Vadodara 8 3 0.3 5.6 15.0 1 21 13 35 2.7
Patna 5 3 0.2 2.5 15.0 1 30 25 8 1.7
Top 12 Districts 194 109 291 1.8
Top 5 Districts 136 63 86 25 2.2

Page | 4
Trent Ltd: Company Update

Financials
Income Statement
Year End (March) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Net Revenues 25,317 31,777 20,475 38,807 77,152 1,01,249 1,33,202 1,56,517
Growth (%) 22.5 25.5 (35.6) 89.5 98.8 31.2 31.6 17.5
COGS 12,324 16,037 10,296 19,009 42,156 56,258 74,785 87,046
Employee Expense 2,525 3,131 2,550 3,379 5,801 7,594 10,057 11,895
A&P Expense 430 493 439 1,131 1,420 2,025 2,664 3,052
Rent Expense 3,180 2,026 1,838 3,663 7,086 9,621 12,670 14,819
Other Expenses 4,494 4,458 3,314 5,290 9,497 12,463 16,329 19,188
EBITDA 2,365 5,632 2,038 6,335 11,193 13,289 16,697 20,517
EBITDA Growth (%) 17.5 138.1 (63.8) 210.8 76.7 18.7 25.6 22.9
EBITDA Margin (%) 9.3 17.7 10.0 16.3 14.5 13.1 12.5 13.1
Depreciation 465 2,311 2,359 2,831 4,632 5,477 6,970 8,299
EBIT 1,901 3,321 (321) 3,505 6,560 7,812 9,727 12,218
Other Income (Including EO Items) 359 1,517 1,979 2,658 4,117 2,850 2,835 2,962
Interest 368 2,383 2,380 2,933 3,572 3,625 4,500 5,224
PBT 1,892 2,455 (721) 3,230 7,105 7,037 8,063 9,955
Total Tax 617 909 (211) 734 1,559 1,771 2,029 2,506
RPAT before share of associate earnings 1,275 1,546 (510) 2,496 5,546 5,266 6,033 7,450
Share of associate earnings - - - - - - - -
Minority share of Profit/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
RPAT 1,275 1,546 (510) 2,496 5,546 5,266 6,033 7,450
Exceptional (Gain)/loss 5 0 63 132 - - - -
Adjusted PAT 1,279 1,546 (447) 2,628 5,546 5,266 6,033 7,450
APAT Growth (%) 9.6 20.8 (128.9) (688.2) 111.0 (5.0) 14.6 23.5
Adjusted EPS (Rs) 3.8 4.3 (1.3) 7.4 15.6 14.8 17.0 21.0
EPS Growth (%) 9.6 13.0 (128.9) (688.2) 111.0 (5.0) 14.6 23.5
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Balance Sheet
Year End (March) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Share Capital - Equity 332 355 355 356 356 356 356 356
Reserves 16,636 24,634 24,803 26,845 30,444 34,268 38,880 44,640
Total Shareholders’ Funds 16,968 24,990 25,159 27,200 30,799 34,624 39,235 44,995
Minority Interest - - - - - - - -
Long Term Debt 2,996 2,997 - 4,974 4,980 4,980 4,980 4,980
Short Term Debt 1,946 - - - - - - -
Total Debt 4,941 2,997 - 4,974 4,980 4,980 4,980 4,980
Lease Liability 21,471 24,973 40,058 38,206 52,551 63,216 73,231
Net Deferred Taxes (72) (1,070) (1,080) (1,225) (1,540) (1,540) (1,540) (1,540)
Other Non-current Liabilities & Provns 4 69 87 95 215 215 215 215
TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 21,842 48,458 49,138 71,102 72,660 90,829 1,06,106 1,21,880
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Net Block 6,271 7,142 6,968 7,747 9,313 13,324 16,385 19,296
CWIP 850 231 340 448 415 415 415 415
Other Non-current Assets 7,250 9,345 10,352 12,947 14,871 14,871 14,871 14,871
RoU Assets 19,041 22,265 37,336 34,346 45,064 52,168 58,277
Total Non-current Assets 14,372 35,759 39,925 58,478 58,945 73,674 83,839 92,859
Inventories 4,894 5,865 3,946 8,225 13,369 18,586 24,086 28,087
Debtors 141 133 206 163 314 412 543 638
Other Current Assets 3,157 2,241 2,204 2,514 3,235 3,830 4,600 4,891
Cash & Equivalents 2,970 8,883 9,710 7,516 5,808 6,860 9,343 14,350
Total Current Assets 11,162 17,123 16,066 18,418 22,726 29,688 38,571 47,966
Creditors 2,289 2,565 2,196 3,142 6,437 9,154 11,860 13,722
Other Current Liabilities & Provns 1,403 1,859 4,656 2,652 2,574 3,378 4,444 5,222
Total Current Liabilities 3,692 4,423 6,852 5,794 9,011 12,532 16,305 18,944
Net Current Assets 7,470 12,699 9,213 12,624 13,715 17,156 22,267 29,022
TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 21,842 48,458 49,138 71,102 72,660 90,829 1,06,106 1,21,880
Source: Company, HSIE Research

Page | 5
Trent Ltd: Company Update

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

Year ending March FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Reported PBT 1,896 2,455 (658) 3,362 7,105 7,037 8,063 9,955
Non-operating & EO Items (122) (1,228) (782) (2,624) (3,944) - - -
Interest Expenses 180 2,058 2,084 2,725 3,411 3,625 4,500 5,224
Depreciation 465 2,319 2,359 2,831 4,632 5,477 6,970 8,299
Working Capital Change (1,356) (1,112) 1,131 (4,020) (2,707) (2,388) (2,629) (1,748)
Tax Paid (781) (807) (1) (782) (1,869) (1,771) (2,029) (2,506)
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 282 3,686 4,133 1,492 6,628 11,980 14,875 19,225
Capex (2,890) (1,501) (1,707) (4,116) (3,141) (5,066) (4,419) (4,539)
Free Cash Flow (FCF) (2,609) 2,185 2,426 (2,624) 3,488 6,914 10,456 14,686
Investments 2,234 (5,870) 972 2,317 57 - - -
Non-operating Income 199 (200) 343 1,741 1,654 - - -
(Increase)/decrease in RoU - - - (15,140) (12,717) (12,780)
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (457) (7,570) (393) (59) (1,430) (20,206) (17,135) (17,319)
Debt Issuance/(Repaid) 841 (4,367) (2,376) (5,350) (3,557) (3,625) (4,500) (5,224)
FCFE (1,768) (2,182) 49 (7,974) (70) 3,290 5,956 9,462
Share Capital Issuance - 9,498 - 4,969 - - - -
Dividend (459) (520) (355) (426) (393) (1,442) (1,422) (1,689)
Others - - (780) (552) (1,202) 14,345 10,665 10,014
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) 382 4,611 (3,512) (1,359) (5,152) 9,278 4,743 3,101
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 206 727 228 74 46 1,053 2,483 5,007
EO Items, Others - - - - - - - -
Closing Cash & Equivalents 509 441 669 744 789 1,841 4,324 9,331

KEY RATIOS
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
PROFITABILITY (%)
GPM 51.3 49.5 49.7 51.0 45.4 44.4 43.9 44.4
EBITDA Margin 9.3 17.7 10.0 16.3 14.5 13.1 12.5 13.1
EBIT Margin 7.5 10.5 (1.6) 9.0 8.5 7.7 7.3 7.8
APAT Margin 5.1 4.9 (2.2) 6.8 7.2 5.2 4.5 4.8
RoE 7.7 7.4 (1.8) 10.0 19.1 16.1 16.3 17.7
RoIC (or Core RoCE) 7.5 10.6 (1.2) 12.6 17.4 16.4 17.4 19.5
RoCE 7.3 11.9 4.2 16.2 23.1 19.0 18.9 19.3
EFFICIENCY
Tax Rate (%) 32.5 37.0 32.1 21.8 21.9 25.2 25.2 25.2
Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 3.4 3.7 2.3 3.9 6.2 5.8 6.0 5.9
Inventory (days) 71 67 70 77 63 67 66 66
Debtors (days) 2 2 4 2 1 1 1 1
Other Current Assets (days) 46 26 39 24 15 14 13 11
Payables (days) 33 29 39 30 30 33 33 32
Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 20 21 83 25 12 12 12 12
Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 65 44 (9) 48 37 37 35 34
Net D/E (x) 0.1 (0.2) (0.4) (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.2)
Interest Coverage (x) 5.2 1.4 (0.1) 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.3
PER SHARE DATA (Rs)
EPS 3.8 4.3 (1.3) 7.4 15.6 14.8 17.0 21.0
CEPS 5.2 10.9 5.4 15.4 28.6 30.2 36.6 44.3
Dividend
Book Value 51.1 70.3 70.8 76.5 86.6 97.4 110.4 126.6
VALUATION
P/E (x) 534.3 473.0 (1,636.8) 278.3 131.9 138.9 121.2 98.2
P/BV (x) 40.3 29.3 29.1 26.9 23.7 21.1 18.6 16.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 310.0 128.8 354.0 115.0 65.3 54.9 43.5 35.2
EV/Revenues (x) 29.0 22.8 35.2 18.8 9.5 7.2 5.5 4.6
OCF/EV (%) 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.9 1.6 2.0 2.7
FCF/EV (%) (0.4) 0.3 0.3 (0.4) 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.0
FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) (0.2) (0.3) 0.0 (1.1) (0.0) 0.4 0.8 1.3
Dividend Yield (%) - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, HSIE Research

Page | 6
Trent Ltd: Company Update

1 Yr Price Movement
Trent
2400

2200

2000

1800

1600

1400
Rating Criteria
1200
BUY: >+15% return potential
1000 ADD: +5% to +15% return potential
Nov-22

Mar-23

Aug-23
Apr-23
Feb-23
Dec-22

Jan-23
Sep-22

Sep-23
Jun-23

Jul-23
May-23
Oct-22

Oct-23
REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential
SELL: >10% Downside return potential

Page | 7
Trent Ltd: Company Update
Disclosure:
We, Jay Gandhi, MBA & Tanuj Pandia, CA authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this
research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. SEBI conducted the inspection and based on their observations
have issued advise/warning. The said observations have been complied with. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be
directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his
relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month
immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate
does have/does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock – NO
HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.

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HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves,
Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066
Compliance Officer: Murli V Karkera Email: [email protected] Phone: (022) 3045 3600
HDFC Securities Limited, SEBI Reg. No.: NSE, BSE, MSEI, MCX: INZ000186937; AMFI Reg. No. ARN: 13549; PFRDA Reg. No. POP: 11092018; IRDA
Corporate Agent License No.: CA0062; SEBI Research Analyst Reg. No.: INH000002475; SEBI Investment Adviser Reg. No.: INA000011538; CIN -
U67120MH2000PLC152193
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
Mutual Funds’ Investments are subject to market risk. Please read the offer and scheme related documents carefully before investing.
Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL (in case of IAs) and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary
or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

HDFC securities
Institutional Equities
Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park,
Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai - 400 013
Board: +91-22-6171-7330 www.hdfcsec.com
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