Articles

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0733-0

Climate and health damages from global concrete

production
Sabbie A. Miller 1 ✉ and Frances C. Moore2

Growing infrastructure needs worldwide have created an unprecedented demand for concrete. Its production results in high
GHG emissions, the primary focus of research and mitigation strategies in the sector. However, emissions of air pollutants and
the economic burden of resultant health consequences are not yet known. Here, we show worldwide concrete production con-
tributes approximately 7.8% of nitrogen oxide emissions, 4.8% of sulfur oxide emissions, 5.2% of particulate matter emissions
smaller than 10 microns and 6.4% of particulate emissions smaller than 2.5 microns. Economic valuation of the damages from
these and GHG emissions total ~75% of the cement and concrete industry current value. Commonly discussed GHG emissions
mitigation strategies can halve these costs but, under certain scenarios, may increase local air pollution and associated health
damages. These findings highlight potential synergies and trade-offs between GHG mitigation and improvements in local air
quality, with implications for the political feasibility of different mitigation options.

C
oncrete is the world’s most widely used man-made material, the external damages from concrete production and in evaluating
with consumption growing exponentially as populations and how commonly proposed GHG mitigation strategies affect air pol-
incomes rise1–3. Concrete’s popularity, which stems from its lution-related health outcomes. Environmental impact assessments
low cost and ease of production, results in an estimated 30 Gt direct were performed to quantify emissions of the following: GHGs
material resource demand annually1. Concrete is formed from
cement, water, granular rocks (aggregates) and admixtures where
appropriate. Production of cement has been identified as one of the
most difficult sources of emissions to decarbonize4 due to the process
emissions associated with production. Since production of concrete
is responsible for approximately 8% of global anthropogenic GHG GHG
88.5%
emissions3 and 3% of global energy demand1, evaluating proposed Cement emissions
mitigation strategies in the sector is essential in the development
of low- or zero-carbon emissions pathways. However, costs of air
pollution are large, particularly in industrializing countries that are
0.7% 10.1%
major consumers of cement, and unlike GHG mitigation, the ben-
efits of reducing air pollutants mostly accrue locally as they can con-
Mineral admixtures
tribute to a variety of diseases in exposed populations5,6. Therefore,
0.9% 28.4%
from a national policymaking perspective, means to address both
issues will be preferred to those that focus only on climate. While
many GHG mitigation strategies by their nature result in large posi- Aggregates
DALYs
53.4%
tive effects on air pollution7, this is not uniformly the case, and some
0.1%
strategies might even worsen air pollution. Estimating the joint cli- Chemical admixtures
0.6%
0.1%
mate and health effects of different strategies is therefore critical for
17.1%
understanding both the total benefits and the political attractive- Batching
ness of various options. In this work, we determine both potential
co-benefits and unintended consequences of several GHG mitiga- Fig. 1 | Contributions to GHG emissions and DALYs. This diagram
tion strategies on altering air pollutant emissions from concrete illustrates relative GHG emissions and DALYs, which reflect air pollutant
production. The implications are critical in understanding potential emission effects on human health, from materials and processes
synergies and trade-offs between GHG mitigation and improve- considered in the scope of assessment, including those to produce cement,
ments in local air quality, with important implications for the politi- mineral admixtures (including limestone and natural pozzolans from
cal feasibility of different mitigation options8. natural resources as well as fly ash and slag from industrial byproducts),
aggregates, and chemical admixtures, as well as those from concrete or
Concrete’s air pollutant emissions mortar batching. Contributions of each of these phases to the cumulative
This research quantifies GHG and air pollutant emissions from con- GHG emissions and to the cumulative DALYs are represented as weighted
crete and mortar production (herein referred to as concrete pro- lines from each of the primary stages. This work considers impacts through
duction) as well as the climate and health consequences of those batching; the subsequent phases of production, use and end-of-life options
emissions, respectively. This work provides a first step in quantifying were considered outside the scope of assessment.

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, CA, USA. 2Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University
1

of California, Davis, CA, USA. ✉e-mail: [email protected]

Nature Climate Change | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange

Articles NaTurE ClImaTE CHanGE

a External costs of concrete

90° N

45° N

0°
180° W 135° W 90° W 45° W 0° 45° E 90° E 135° E 180° E

45° S

90° S
<US$25 per ton of cement used US$70–80 per ton of cement used
US$25–60 per ton of cement used US$80–90 per ton of cement used
US$60–70 per ton of cement used US$90 per ton of cement used

b Percentage from health damage c Percentage from energy-based emissions

90° N 90° N

45° N 45° N

0° 0°
180° W 135° W 90° W 45° W 0° 45° E 90° E 135° E 180° E 180° W 135° W 90° W 45° W 0° 45° E 90° E 135° E 180° E

45° S 45° S

90° S 90° S
<15% 50–65% <20% 30–40%
15–30% 65–75% 20–25% 40–45%
30–50% >75% 25–30% >45%
No data available

Fig. 2 | External costs of concrete. These maps represent the cumulative costs associated with the climate and health damages for the production of
concrete and mortar by country. As concrete production and mortar production vary slightly, but both contain cement, which has notable GHG and air
pollutant emissions from production, plots are presented as damages relative to cement used in concrete and mortar production. a, Cumulative costs,
that is, all considered economic damages for the production of concrete and mortar, as a ratio to a metric ton of cement produced for each country in the
year 2012. b, The percentage contribution to these cumulative economic damages from health damages, reflecting air pollutant emissions calculated from
PM2.5, PM10, SOX and NOX emissions. c, The percentage contribution to these cumulative economic damages from energy-based emissions (as opposed to
process-based emissions). A description of how these values were calculated are presented in the Methods.

(specifically, CO2, CH4 and N2O), nitrogen oxides (NOX), sulfur oxides 2015, US$450 billion (ref. 9). When these external damages for con-
(SOX), and particulate matter under 10 microns (PM10) and under crete production for each country are normalized to cement pro-
2.5 microns (PM2.5). Emissions were assessed from raw material duction, results indicate an unaccounted for US$20–110 cost per
acquisition through concrete production, capturing the effects of metric ton of cement used (Fig. 2). In some cases, this cost exceeds
varying sources, including energy-derived emissions (for example, that of the market value for cement; for example, in the United
emissions from combustion of fuels for thermal energy, electricity) States, hydraulic cement sells for approximately US$100 per metric
and process-derived emissions (that is, direct emissions from chem- ton (ref. 10), but the climate and health damages of concrete in the
ical reactions and processes). Air pollutant emissions as well as their United States are approximately US$110 per metric ton of cement
effects on human health, calculated using dose–response factors used. Comparing the ratio of external costs from climate and air
and disease-specific effects (for example, cardiopulmonary disease), pollution damages to market value with the same metric for fossil
are assessed. This analysis includes a full uncertainty quantification fuels suggests concrete is higher than both natural gas (3%) and oil
involving 951 uncertain variables and factors that would influence (54%), better only than coal (337%) in terms of its net social value
the estimates of climate and health damages of concrete production after accounting for important external costs11,12.
around the world (including differences in energy mixes, equip- Primary drivers of variability in the climate and health dam-
ment efficiencies, cement-based material requirements, population ages between countries correspond to differences in the quantity
densities, exposure to other sources of air pollution and valuation of and type of emissions, a function of energy mixes used, equip-
damages). The contributions of concrete production to GHG emis- ment energy efficiency and materials used. Differences in materi-
sions and to disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from air pollut- als include variations in amounts and types of mineral admixtures
ant emissions are quantified (Fig. 1) and used to inform economic used as well as effects of concrete strength used, where typically,
estimates of the effects of mitigation strategies. higher-strength concretes require higher cement content (data pre-
Our results indicate that concrete production results in approxi- sented in the Supplementary Information). In addition, the sensitiv-
mately US$335 billion annually of external climate and health dam- ity of human health (in terms of DALYs) to air pollutant emissions
ages. This amount is nearly 75% of the industry’s value reported in varies by location13,14 due to differences in population density and

Nature Climate Change | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange

NaTurE ClImaTE CHanGE Articles
Table 1 | GHG mitigation methods considered
Nomenclature Definition Implementable Current barriers to implementation
OKF Use of oil as a cement kiln fuel Now Access to and cost of oil resources;
to replace higher-emitting fuels, technologically implementable
including coal, petcoke and waste
fuels19
ILF Increased use of limestone filler, Now Appropriate design specifications
namely, up to 35% limestone in certain regions to facilitate use;
by mass as a cementitious technologically implementable
replacement in concrete
WE Use of an electricity grid composed Now Availability of wind-powered electricity
solely of wind electricity for each at processing stages; technologically
stage of production implementable
KEE Refurbishment of cement kilns to Now Capital investment; technologically
be as energy efficient as currently implementable
possible
CCS-AS Use of amine-scrubbing CCS 5–25 yr Advancement in ability to capture CO2
methods at the cement kiln and verification of applicability at larger
scales; expected to be technologically
implementable in 5–25 yr (ref. 18)
CCS-CL Use of calcium-looping CCS 5–25 yr Advancement in ability to capture carbon
methods at the cement kiln dioxide, verification of applicability at
larger scales and confirmation that
material properties are not altered;
expected to be technologically
implementable in 5–25 yr (ref. 18)
CCa Use of 50% replacement of clinker 0–5 yr Verification of the ability to use different
in cement with calcined clay, in clay deposits of varying quality; being
conjunction with other mineral implemented at small scales currently
admixtures currently used
ALL A combination of impacts from OKF, 5–25 yr See above
ILF, WE, KEE, CCS-CL and CC
a
The calcined clays still require a certain amount of processing energy to kiln the raw materials but at a lower temperature than the clinker in cement, and there are no raw-material-derived CO2 emissions15.

pre-existing concentrations of air pollutants (contribution from the batching sites (see Supplementary Information for discussion of
health damages, Fig. 2b). To produce cement, a clinker is kilned transportation models).
at 1,450 °C to produce the base of the hydraulic binder that binds
conventional concretes and mortar. This activity results in both Mitigation strategies
energy-derived emissions and process-derived emissions (from the Since the production of concrete is an important driver of global
reaction of CaCO3 + heat → CaO + CO2). For most other constitu- GHG emissions, mitigation strategies that address emissions in this
ents and processes in the production of concrete, damages accrue sector are a critical component of deep decarbonization plans nec-
from energy-derived emissions, with the exception of aggregate essary to achieve global temperature targets. Cement, the primary
acquisition, which can lead to high PM10 and PM2.5 emissions (con- driver of GHG emissions from concrete production, has been the
tribution to damages from energy-derived emissions, Fig. 2c). target of mitigation strategies (for example, refs. 15,16). There are sev-
Breaking down damages by the stage of concrete production, eral proven technologies that can reduce GHG emissions, but the
cement production is responsible for approximately 50% of the total mitigation potential of these methods is not sufficient to achieve
climate and health damages of concrete: a breakdown of ~32% in desired reduction targets set by the International Energy Agency17.
climate damages and ~18% in health damages of concrete. Process Additional technologies have larger mitigation potential, but many,
emissions from the chemical reactions to produce clinker for cement such as carbon capture and storage (CCS)18, are not anticipated to
account for 45–60% of the total GHG emissions from concrete be broadly implementable for several years. The use of alternative
production, depending on region. After cement, the next-greatest materials offers potential to reduce cement demand and the emis-
contributor to damages is aggregates, which produce large health sions associated with its production15; however, many of the proper-
damages due to PM emissions from stone acquisition and crushing. ties of these alternative materials, particularly with regard to their
Aggregates are responsible for 4% in climate damages and 34% in longevity, are still unknown.
health damages of concrete. After cement and aggregates, the next- For this work, eight GHG mitigation strategies were evaluated on
largest contributor to the cumulative health damages is concrete the basis of their contribution to change in both climate and health
batching, the mixing of concrete constituents, which again has high damages. These strategies included four currently implementable
associated PM emissions; batching contributes a negligible amount technologies, two types of CCS technologies that may become pos-
to climate damages but ~11% in health damages to the cumulative sible in the future, a partial replacement of cement and the com-
damages from concrete. The emissions from mineral and chemical bination of the aforementioned strategies (Table 1). Although we
admixtures are small relative to these other components of concrete focus here on GHG mitigation strategies and their air pollution co-
production despite their typically longer transportation distances to benefits or trade-offs, other policies may be available that reduce air

Nature Climate Change | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange

Articles NaTurE ClImaTE CHanGE

a
350

Benefits of mitigation technologies 300

250
(US$1 billion)

200

150

100

50

–50
Health

Climate

Total

Health

Climate

Total

Health

Climate

Total

Health

Climate

Total

Health

Climate

Total

Health

Climate

Total

Health

Climate

Total

Health

Climate

Total
OKF ILF WE KEE CCS-AS CCS-CL CC ALL

b 100
tCO2e reduction (US$2015 tCO2e–1)
Health damage reduction per

80

60

40

20

–20
0 500,000,000 1 × 109 1.5 × 109 2 × 109 2.5 × 109 3 × 109 3.5 × 109
GHG emissions reduction (tCO2e)

OKF ILF WE KEE CCS-AS CCS-CL CC ALL

Fig. 3 | Effects of GHG mitigation strategies on economic climate and health damages. These bar charts and distributions represent the amount of
change in damages, from both climate damages and health damages, relative to the baseline costs. a, Bar charts present a breakdown of benefits from
mitigation in climate damages, health damages and cumulative damages from concrete and mortar production globally. These benefits are compared with
the 2012 damages determined, namely, US$2.15 billion in health damages, US$1.2 billion in climate damages and a total of US$3.35 billion in cumulative
damages. Error bars present the 5th to 95th percentiles of each mitigation strategy, accounting for uncertainty in the environmental impact models.
b, Points represent the reduction in health damages per reduction of GHG emissions (in metric tons of CO2-equivalent (tCO2e)) relative to reductions in
GHG emissions (in CO2e) from each mitigation strategy considered for concrete and mortar production globally. With reduced levels of GHG emissions
and varying effects on health impacts, the ratio of benefits to reduced carbon emissions grows for certain mitigation methods. Data are based on 2012
values, with emissions quantities based on methods presented in the Supplementary Information.

pollution damages more directly, particularly through the reduction technologies in cement production on a short time horizon18. CC
of PM emissions, such as improved controls and dust suppression. can provide up to a 28% reduction in GHG emissions (Fig. 3).
The mitigation potential for each strategy as well as the cumu- These mitigation strategies have varying effects on air pollutant
lative effects of implementing the methods proposed are pre- emissions and therefore on the health costs of concrete produc-
sented in Fig. 3a, where the distributions represent uncertainty tion. Of the readily implementable mitigation strategies, OKF leads
in regional effectiveness of these technologies. Individually, the to the greatest co-benefit of a 14% reduction in health damages.
proven mitigation strategies that can be readily implemented, The remaining readily implementable technologies also either do
namely, use of cleaner-combusting oil as kiln fuel (OKF), not affect air pollution emissions or show co-benefits with GHG
increased use of limestone filler (ILF), use of wind-generated mitigation, ranging from 0 to 3% reduction of health damages. The
electricity (WE) and increased kiln energy efficiency (KEE), use of anticipated technologies, particularly CCS, however, causes
result in at most a 12% reduction in cumulative climate and an increase in the human health impact from air pollutants. This
health damages. WE and OKF separately contribute to over a 13% is a function of the additional energy required to perform CCS: the
and a 9% reduction in climate damages from GHG emissions, health damages associated with concrete production rise by approx-
respectively. KEE results in the smallest reduction of climate imately 7% for both CCS methods. Despite this increase, the poten-
damages of the strategies considered, a nearly negligible change. tial ability of CCS technologies to reduce GHG emissions results in
The more speculative mitigation methods, namely amine scrub- these methods offering the greatest reduction in cumulative eco-
bing (CCS-AS), calcium looping (CCS-CL) and 50% replacement nomic damages. If multiple mitigation strategies were employed,
of cement with calcined clay (CC), have much larger mitigation accounting for the nonlinear additive properties of using multiple
potential. CCS-AS and CCS-CL can reduce GHG emissions by mitigation methods, an 85% reduction in climate damages and a
over 50% and 65%, respectively. However, it is currently unclear 19% reduction in health damages, leading to a 44% reduction in
whether these technologies will be technologically feasible in the cumulative total external costs, could be achieved (Fig. 3).
near or medium term. According to current studies, CCS-AS and In addition to evaluating the total mitigation potential and asso-
CCS-CL are among the most likely to be implemented CCS ciated climate and health benefits of GHG mitigation strategies in

Nature Climate Change | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange

NaTurE ClImaTE CHanGE Articles
the concrete sector (Fig. 3a), options can be compared in terms of acknowledgements, peer review information; details of author con-
health benefits per ton of GHG emissions reduced (Fig. 3b). The tributions and competing interests; and statements of data and code
former metric is useful for evaluating the role of different technolo- availability are available at https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-
gies in deep decarbonization pathways, whereas the latter can be 0733-0.
used to rank the marginal benefits of different policies to aid policy-
makers in deciding what policies to prioritize. Figure 3b shows OKF Received: 18 April 2019; Accepted: 12 February 2020;
to vastly out-perform all other strategies on this metric; the health Published: xx xx xxxx
benefits of reducing GHG this way are at least two times larger than
for any other mitigation strategy because of the air quality benefits References
of altering the kiln fuel. These benefits mean this strategy should be 1. Monteiro, P. J. M., Miller, S. A. & Horvath, A. Towards sustainable concrete.
a high priority for implementation, even though this policy alone Nat. Mater. 16, 698–699 (2017).
has a fairly low total mitigation potential (Fig. 3a). 2. World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision: Key Findings and Advance
Tables (UNPD, 2015).
3. Miller, S. A., Horvath, A. & Monteiro, P. J. M. Readily implementable
Policy implications techniques can cut annual CO2 emissions from the production of concrete by
Currently, the external costs of concrete production from climate over 20%. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 074029 (2016).
change and air pollution are comparable to the total market value 4. Davis, S. J. et al. Net-zero emissions energy systems. Science 360,
of the industry. Evaluating the options available to decarbonize this eaas9793 (2018).
5. Lelieveld, J., Evans, J. S., Fnais, M., Giannadaki, D. & Pozzer, A. The
challenging sector shows the potential for substantial interactions contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a
between GHG mitigation and air pollution emissions. While read- global scale. Nature 525, 367–371 (2015).
ily available technologies have a relatively small total mitigation 6. Oberschelp, C., Pfister, S., Raptis, C. E. & Hellweg, S. Global emission
potential, they show large co-benefits in terms of reducing health hotspots of coal power generation. Nat. Sustain. 2, 113–121 (2019).
damages, suggesting they should be high-priority strategies for poli- 7. Haines, A. et al. Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas
emissions: overview and implications for policy makers. Lancet 374,
cymakers. However, larger emissions reductions required to achieve 2104–2114 (2009).
global temperature targets cannot be achieved with these strate- 8. Cifuentes, L., Borja-Aburto, V. H., Gouveia, N., Thurston, G. & Davis, D. L.
gies alone. Therefore, more-speculative technologies, such as CCS, Hidden health benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. Science 293,
will be required for more-substantial emissions reductions in the 1257–1259 (2001).
concrete sector. This analysis has shown the potential for adverse 9. Birshan, M., Czigler, T., Periwal, S. & Schulze, P. The cement industry at a
turning point: A path toward value creation. McKinsey & Company Our
trade-offs between GHG mitigation and air quality for these tech- Insights https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/chemicals/our-insights/
nologies, which may limit the attractiveness of these options to local the-cement-industry-at-a-turning-point-a-path-toward-value-creation (2015).
or national policymakers. 10. Kelly, T. D. & van Oss, H. G. Historical Statistics for Mineral and Material
Understanding the air quality co-benefits or tradeoffs from GHG Commodities: Cement Statistics (USGS, 2014).
11. Coady, D., Parry, I. W. H., Sears, L. & Shang, B. How Large Are Global Energy
mitigation strategies has important implications for the political
Subsidies? Working Paper No. 15/105 (IMF, 2015).
economy of support for different options. Benefits from mitigating 12. BP Energy Outlook 2019 Edition (BP Energy Economics, 2019).
GHG emissions accrue to all countries and are largely not captured 13. Humbert, S. et al. Intake fraction for particulate matter: recommendations for
by the country bearing the costs of those actions. By contrast, most life cycle impact assessment. Environ. Sci. Technol. 45, 4808–4816 (2011).
benefits from reducing air pollution are captured locally. Therefore, 14. Gronlund, C. J., Humbert, S., Shaked, S., O’Neill, M. S. & Jolliet, O.
Characterizing the burden of disease of particulate matter for life cycle
although technologies such as CCS may be promising from a cli- impact assessment. Air Qual. Atmos. Health 8, 29–46 (2015).
mate standpoint, other approaches that provide more local bene- 15. Miller, S. A., John, V. M., Pacca, S. A. & Horvath, A. Carbon dioxide
fits through improved air quality may be more politically feasible, reduction potential in the global cement industry by 2050. Cem. Concr. Res.
at least in some countries. This factor is of particular concern in 114, 115–124 (2018).
addressing emissions from concrete production, which is a critical 16. Xi, F. et al. Substantial global carbon uptake by cement carbonation.
Nat. Geosci. 9, 880–883 (2016).
resource for industrializing economies with growing infrastructure 17. Technology Roadmap: Low-Carbon Transition in the Cement Industry
needs17, which may also have large and urgent air pollution con- (IEA, 2018).
cerns. Considering benefits for both the global climate and regional 18. Hills, T., Leeson, D., Florin, N. & Fennell, P. Carbon capture in the cement
health in comparing technological options for reducing GHG emis- industry: technologies, progress, and retrofitting. Environ. Sci. Technol. 50,
sions from concrete is critical for accurately evaluating both the total 368–377 (2016).
19. Gomez, D. R. et al. in 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas
economic benefits and political feasibility of different strategies. Inventories Vol 2 (eds Eggleston, S. et al.) Ch. 2 (IPCC, 2007).

Online content Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in
Any methods, additional references, Nature Research reporting published maps and institutional affiliations.
summaries, source data, extended data, supplementary information, © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2020

Nature Climate Change | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange

Articles NaTurE ClImaTE CHanGE

Methods As the uncertainty in quantifying emissions can influence the likelihood that
Despite the large quantities of concrete produced annually, analysis of air emissions projected mitigation strategies will provide sufficient efficacy, this work presents
other than GHG emissions associated with concrete manufacture has not been a full, probabilistic environmental impact assessment of concrete production
implemented at a global scale. This work provides an initial estimate of emissions globally. This was done by quantifying all material and energy flows in the
of air pollutants associated with all phases from raw material acquisition through production of each of the constituents of concrete as well as in the production of
production of concrete at a global scale (here focusing on several criteria air concrete as a final product. Variability in data associated with material and energy
pollutants: NOX, SOX, PM10 and PM2.5) and the associated costs in terms of both demands as well as variability in air pollutant emissions were modelled using the
climate change impacts and the health effects of air pollution associated with these previously discussed distributions. In addition, uncertainty of input parameters
emissions. This work also aims to understand the role different GHG mitigation such as data accuracy with regard to temporal, geographical and technological
strategies could have on changing these emissions profiles and economic burdens. representativeness was included. When considering the distribution of expected
In doing so, the goal is to present potential areas for improving emissions of air environmental impacts from the production of concrete, the key drivers in the
pollutants and assessment methods. We were not able to address short-lived overall uncertainty in impacts are the constituents that contribute the most to the
climate forcers such as black carbon or tropospheric ozone in this analysis because environmental impacts, regardless of whether a constituent or process has greater
the climate effect of these species is geographically heterogeneous and in some uncertainty (see Supplementary Information).
cases the direct and indirect effects are poorly quantified20,21. In addition, because To determine economic impacts, two sets of calculations were performed.
they are not well mixed, the standard social cost of carbon (SCC) valuation cannot First, a social cost of carbon factor was applied to each of the three GHG emissions
be applied to climate effects from these species. assessed (from ref. 32) to determine climate damages. Second, a value of statistical
The two primary applications of cement are in the production of concrete and life year was applied to the DALYs from the air pollutant emissions quantified.
the production of mortar (discussed herein as concrete production); a simplified These DALY values were based on primary emissions of particulate matter, NOX
diagram of raw materials acquisition, processing and concrete production is and SOX. For the particulate matter emissions, region-specific and population
presented in the Supplementary Information. Our model covers 155 countries and density-specific characterization factors were used to determine the contribution
is presented for 2012, which at present is the most recent year for which data to of air pollutants to DALYs (based on ref. 14). Characterization factors for the
model global air pollutant emissions are available. These 155 countries have been determination of NOX and SOX emissions’ contribution to DALYs were based
aggregated into 13 world regions (see Supplementary Table 1). To capture regional on values published by the US National Institute of Standards and Technology33.
differences in the production of air pollutant and GHG emissions, statistics for The value of statistical life year was based on the value of a statistical life (value
varying electricity mixes, kiln efficiencies and fuel mixes, strength requirements presented by ref. 34). As this value represents the value of a statistical life for the
and trade statistics were compiled on the basis of regional and country-level data. United States, it was adjusted on the basis of the global mean per capita income
These data, coupled with production and trade statistics for the materials used to using an income elasticity of 1, following ref. 34. This value was then divided by
produce concrete, were used to quantify country-specific emissions. the expected life years of median-aged Americans to determine the global average
Consumption quantities of hydraulic cement for binder are based on value of a statistical life year. This factor was then multiplied by the DALYs to
production data from the United States Geologic Survey and trade data from the determine the economic costs of the health consequences of air pollution. While
United Nations trade statistics22,23. Using data from the European Ready Mixed there are health damages associated with climate change, the damages from GHG
Concrete Organization24 and data from Cement Sustainability Initiative’s Getting emissions were exclusively considered in the climate damages assessment to
the Numbers Right program25, as well as a methodology presented by Miller avoid double counting of economic burdens (for more detail, see Supplementary
et al.3,26, concrete production accounting for differences in mixture proportions Information). This work assesses a snapshot of emissions in the year 2012; as such,
based on strength requirements, supplementary cementitious material use, feedback effects between economic damages and from the influences of parameters
production technologies and energy mixes for different regions around the world such as the use of CCS on the cost of cement or the effects of alternative material
were assessed, again, to capture regional differences (for additional detail, see utilization on the cost of concrete were considered outside the scope of this
Supplementary Information). assessment. Because this work focuses on the emissions associated with one year of
GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were quantified using the following cement-based material production, this assumption is considered appropriate.
formula: In addition to quantifying health and climate damages, the role of GHG
X X X emissions mitigation strategies on these health and climate damages was assessed.
I¼ qi pi þ mj p j þ nk ok tk pk Two classifications of mitigation methods were assessed: (1) proven technologies
i j k that could be implemented immediately with a large enough capital investment
and (2) more-speculative technologies that required additional research and
where I represents the impact of GHG emissions, NOX, SOX, PM10 or PM2.5 development before they could be widely deployed. Mitigation strategies in the
emissions, respectively, for the production of one cubic metre of concrete. For first category included use of cleaner energy sources, increased use of filler and
this formula, p reflects the quantity of each constituent required for concrete improved efficiency of kilns. These strategies were selected because they are either
production, q reflects the emissions from processing or raw-material-derived already being implemented to a lesser extent in every region (for example, OKF,
emissions for a constituent or process, m reflects the emissions from required ILF) or can be implemented with enough capital investment (for example, WE,
energy for each constituent or process, n reflects the emissions for the combustion KEE). The mitigation strategies included in the second category were use of CCS
of transportation fuel, o reflects the mode of transportation, t is the transportation technology (namely, CCS-AS and CCS-CL; each of these methods assumes a 90%
distance, i represents each material assessed, j represents each process considered efficacy of recapturing CO2 at the cement kilns, so these benefits are susceptible
and k represents each stage of transportation required. Thus, this work considers to changes in energy required or recapture efficiency) as well as use of alternative
contributions to GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions as a function of materials in the cementitious blends (namely, a 50% clinker replacement with
process-derived sources, including those from chemical reactions and particulates calcined clays) (for more detail, see Supplementary Information).
from handling, and energy-derived sources. The energy-derived sources
encompass emissions from electricity demand, thermal energy demand and Reporting Summary. Further information on research design is available in the
transportation resources at various stages of production. Distributions of concrete Nature Research Reporting Summary linked to this article.
and mortar constituents were based on the production of 92 representative
concrete mixtures with varying constituents and compressive strengths as well
as 10 representative mortar mixtures. These mixtures were used to capture the Data availability
appropriate ratio of mineral admixtures and strength requirements determined for The data compiled and used to perform this work, as well as data used to produce
each region. the figures, can be found in the Supplementary Information. Raw data inputs
To quantify emissions flows from each process, reaction and energy use, national may be procured through the referenced literature. Source data for Figs. 1–3 are
and international databases were leveraged. Air pollutant emissions data from a included with the paper.
US national database for the combustion of fuels for thermal energy in stationary
industrial facilities were used to populate distributions for emissions associated with Code availability
energy in each of six classifications for cement kilns (based on data from the US Code to reproduce the figures in the manuscript is available at https://github.com/
Environmental Protection Agency27). The percentage use of these types of cement sabbiemiller/Concrete-air-2020.
kilns in each region was based on national or regional statistics (based on data from
ref. 25). GHG emissions data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change References
for the combustion of fuels for thermal energy in stationary industrial facilities were 20. Feng, H. & Zou, B. Satellite-based estimation of the aerosol forcing
used to populate distributions of GHG emissions from cement kilns19. Probabilistic contribution to the global land surface temperature in the recent decade.
distributions from a US national report for the emissions of air pollutants and GHGs Remote Sens. Environ. 232, 111299 (2019).
were used for the assessment of electricity-related emissions (based on data from 21. Myhre, G. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds
ref. 28). Process-related emissions, such as particulate matter from quarrying practices, Stocker, T. F. et al.) Ch. 8 (IPCC, 2013).
were assessed through statistics from a US national database (based on data from the 22. van Oss, H. G. 2012 Minerals Yearbook: Cement (USGS, 2015).
US Environmental Protection Agency29–31); similar process-related emissions were 23. UN Comtrade Database: Cement (Portland, Aluminous, Slag or Hydraulic)
assumed for each country and region examined. (UN Comtrade, 2015).

Nature Climate Change | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange

NaTurE ClImaTE CHanGE Articles
24. Ready-Mixed Concrete Industry Statistics Year 2013 Acknowledgements
(ERMCO, 2014). S.A.M. thanks A. Horvath at the University of California Berkeley for editorial guidance
25. Global Cement Database on CO2 and Energy Information at early stages of revision.
(GNR, 2014).
26. Miller, S. A., Horvath, A. & Monteiro, P. J. M. Impacts of booming concrete
production on water resources worldwide. Nat. Sustain. 1, Author contributions
69–76 (2018). S.A.M. developed the methodological approach. S.A.M. and F.C.M. collected the data
27. AP 42 5th edn, Vol. I; Ch. 1 (USEPA, 1995). and evaluated the results. S.A.M. and F.C.M. wrote the manuscript.
28. Cai, H., Wang, M., Elgowainy, A. & Han, J. Updated Greenhouse Gas and
Criteria Air Pollutant Emission Factors and Their Probability Distribution Competing interests
Functions for Electric Generating Units (USDOE OSTI, 2012). The authors declare no competing interests.
29. Air Emissions Inventories, Vol. 2; Ch. 14 (USEPA, 2001).
30. Emission Factor Documentation for AP-42; Section 11.6 (USEPA, 1994).
31. AP 42 5th edn, Vol. I; Ch. 11 (USEPA, 2006). Additional information
32. Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Greenhouse GasesTechnical Supplementary information is available for this paper at https://doi.org/10.1038/
Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under s41558-020-0733-0.
Executive Order 12866 Technical Support Document (EPA, 2016). Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to S.A.M.
33. Lippiatt, B. BEES 4.0: Building for Environmental and Economic Sustainability
Peer review information Nature Climate Change thanks Mehdi Akbarian, Shaohui
Technical Manual and User Guide (NIST, 2007).
Zhang and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review
34. Carleton, T. et al. Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate
of this work.
Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits Working Paper (Univ.
Chicago, 2018). Reprints and permissions information is available at www.nature.com/reprints.

Nature Climate Change | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange

 nature research | reporting summary
Corresponding author(s): Sabbie A. MIller
Last updated by author(s): Mar 1, 2020

Reporting Summary
Nature Research wishes to improve the reproducibility of the work that we publish. This form provides structure for consistency and transparency
in reporting. For further information on Nature Research policies, see Authors & Referees and the Editorial Policy Checklist.

Statistics
For all statistical analyses, confirm that the following items are present in the figure legend, table legend, main text, or Methods section.
n/a Confirmed
The exact sample size (n) for each experimental group/condition, given as a discrete number and unit of measurement
A statement on whether measurements were taken from distinct samples or whether the same sample was measured repeatedly
The statistical test(s) used AND whether they are one- or two-sided
Only common tests should be described solely by name; describe more complex techniques in the Methods section.

A description of all covariates tested

A description of any assumptions or corrections, such as tests of normality and adjustment for multiple comparisons
A full description of the statistical parameters including central tendency (e.g. means) or other basic estimates (e.g. regression coefficient)
AND variation (e.g. standard deviation) or associated estimates of uncertainty (e.g. confidence intervals)

For null hypothesis testing, the test statistic (e.g. F, t, r) with confidence intervals, effect sizes, degrees of freedom and P value noted
Give P values as exact values whenever suitable.

For Bayesian analysis, information on the choice of priors and Markov chain Monte Carlo settings
For hierarchical and complex designs, identification of the appropriate level for tests and full reporting of outcomes
Estimates of effect sizes (e.g. Cohen's d, Pearson's r), indicating how they were calculated
Our web collection on statistics for biologists contains articles on many of the points above.

Software and code

Policy information about availability of computer code
Data collection Data used in this study are from public sources: national databases, international databases, industry reports, and peer-reviewed
journals.

Data analysis This research utilized MatLab (version 2019a) and Excel (version 2011 for mac) software. Documentation can be made available upon
request.
For manuscripts utilizing custom algorithms or software that are central to the research but not yet described in published literature, software must be made available to editors/reviewers.
We strongly encourage code deposition in a community repository (e.g. GitHub). See the Nature Research guidelines for submitting code & software for further information.

Data
Policy information about availability of data
All manuscripts must include a data availability statement. This statement should provide the following information, where applicable:
- Accession codes, unique identifiers, or web links for publicly available datasets
- A list of figures that have associated raw data
- A description of any restrictions on data availability
October 2018

The data compiled and used to perform this work, as well as data used to produce the figures, can be found in the Supplementary Information. Raw data inputs may
be procured through the referenced literature.

1
 nature research | reporting summary
Field-specific reporting
Please select the one below that is the best fit for your research. If you are not sure, read the appropriate sections before making your selection.
Life sciences Behavioural & social sciences Ecological, evolutionary & environmental sciences
For a reference copy of the document with all sections, see nature.com/documents/nr-reporting-summary-flat.pdf

Ecological, evolutionary & environmental sciences study design

All studies must disclose on these points even when the disclosure is negative.
Study description Quantitative analysis of greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutant emissions from every stage of concrete and mortar production
from raw material acquisition through batching was conducted. This inventory accounts for use of supplementary cementitious
material, equipment efficiency, fuel mixes, and strength requirements. Using the distributions determined for data variability and the
distributions tabulated based on a quantitative uncertainty matrix, Monte Carlo simulations (n = 10,000) were run to assess GHG
emissions and air pollutant emissions for production of one cubic meter of concrete and for one cubic meter of mortar production
for each of 13 regions in the world.

Research sample The study did not involve a sample; it included all countries for which data were available.

Sampling strategy To facilitate assessment of mixtures proportions, 10 mortar mixtures were selected based on United States code (American Society
for Testing Materials C270) specifications and the literature, and 92 concrete mixtures possessing the appropriate strength and
mineral admixtures were selected based on the literature.

Data collection Data used in this study are from public sources: national databases, international databases, industry reports, and peer-reviewed
journals.

Timing and spatial scale Due to the availability of cement and concrete production and trade statistics, data were selected to be as reflective of production in
the year 2012 as possible. Depending on data availability, some datasets were from earlier or later years and some data were
representative of a subset of regions as opposed to globally representative. These differences, when present, are noted in
Supplementary Information.

Data exclusions No data were excluded from the analysis; if data were not available for specific countries, the absence is noted on figures.

Reproducibility This study is not based on experimental assessment; therefore, there are no experimental findings to replicate.

Randomization There were no experimental groups; therefore, there was no assignment to experimental groups.

Blinding There were no experimental groups; therefore, there was no blinding to group allocation.

Did the study involve field work? Yes No

Reporting for specific materials, systems and methods

We require information from authors about some types of materials, experimental systems and methods used in many studies. Here, indicate whether each material,
system or method listed is relevant to your study. If you are not sure if a list item applies to your research, read the appropriate section before selecting a response.

Materials & experimental systems Methods

n/a Involved in the study n/a Involved in the study
Antibodies ChIP-seq
Eukaryotic cell lines Flow cytometry
Palaeontology MRI-based neuroimaging
Animals and other organisms
Human research participants
Clinical data
October 2018