Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 49 (2023) 101508

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Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ejrh

Assessing the impacts of climate change and dam development on

potential flood hazard and damages in the Cambodian floodplain
of the lower mekong basin
Sophal Try a, b, c, *, Takahiro Sayama a, Sophea Rom Phy d, Ty Sok b, Steven Ly a,
Chantha Oeurng b
a
Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji 611-0011, Japan
b
Faculty of Hydrology and Water Resource Engineering, Institute of Technology of Cambodia, Russian Conf. Blvd., Phnom Penh 12156, Cambodia
c
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, 639798, Singapore
d
Graudate School of Agriculture, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8502, Japan

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Study Region: Mekong River Basin

Extreme flooding Study focus: Climate change has become a global environmental and socio-economical issue
Flood damage potentially affecting river hydrology and downstream flood characteristics. Climate change and
Climate change
upstream dam construction are the two main driving factors in altering the hydrology in the
Dam construction
Cambodian floodplain
Mekong River Basin. Cambodian floodplain is located in the vulnerable flood zone to be affected
by climate change and upstream dam development. This study investigated the potential impacts
of future climate change and dam construction on flood hazards and agricultural damages in the
Cambodian floodplain of the Mekong River. Climate outputs from MRI-AGCM3.2S under different
sea surface temperature (SST) scenarios and a large ensemble climate dataset (d4PDF) under 4 K
increasing scenario were used as input to a fully distributed rainfall-runoff-inundation (RRI)
model for future projection of flood in the Lower Mekong Basin.
New hydrological insights for the region: The results indicated that the changes in extreme flood
events (25-year flood) showed an increase of agricultural flood damages under climate change
impact by 18–28% under different SST scenarios. These increases would be only 5–13% under
integrated impacts from future climate change and dam construction. Under the 4 K increasing
scenario, the agricultural damages for extreme flood events of 10-year, 50-year, and 100-year
return periods would increase by 32%, 38%, and 39% for climate change impact alone and
17%, 29%, and 31% for combined climate change and dam development scenario, respectively.
The climate change impacts would have more influential on increasing the magnitude of extreme
floods than the reduction caused by dam reservoir constructions in the future projection in the
Cambodian floodplain of the Mekong River Basin. The impact of dam constructions tends to have
greater impact on reducing smaller extreme events; however, their impacts are relatively smaller
for larger extreme flood events (i.e., 100-year flood).

* Corresponding author at: Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji 611-0011, Japan.
E-mail address: [email protected] (S. Try).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101508
Received 22 October 2022; Received in revised form 14 July 2023; Accepted 15 August 2023
Available online 25 August 2023
2214-5818/© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
S. Try et al. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 49 (2023) 101508

1. Introduction

Flooding, a major water-related disaster, is spatially and temporally changing its patterns. Such ramifications are attributed to
numerous changes including, but not limited to climate change and river modifications (Kundzewicz et al., 2014; Lauri et al., 2012;
Zhang et al., 2014). The former factor, that is, climate change is notoriously known for altering the global hydrological cycle and the
state of water resources (IPCC, 2014). Alternatively, it has been growing its magnitude and propelling constant changes in hydrological
and flooding characteristics in various regions around the world, albeit disproportionately (Dottori et al., 2018). Given that precip­
itation, the key driver of hydrology and flooding, accrues in intensity and duration due to climate change, both discharge and flooding
attributes will invariably increase in a worrisome manner (Fang et al., 2018; IPCC, 2014; Liu et al., 2020; Whitfield, 2012). To
counteract and buffer the rise which otherwise could lead to extremes, the operation of dams along rivers is usually put emphasis and
deemed effective (Pokhrel et al., 2018a; Wang et al., 2017). Dams lower flow anomalies by reducing high flow whilst increasing low
flow, which thereby greatly minimize the potential impacts of flooding during the rainy season and high rainfall events. Likewise,
dams can modulate the impacts thereof that are heavily ascribed to climate change (van Oorschot et al., 2018) by declining floodwater
levels and especially, flood magnitude (Shrestha and Kawasaki, 2020). In this regard, the effect of dam construction on reducing the
agricultural damages in the future climate change is thus relatively promising.
With the onset of climate change impacts on hydrology and flooding, adding new dams have been found to tackle future flooding to
a certain extent (Wang et al., 2017), in addition to the existing ones that have done marginally to minimize flood level (Arias et al.,
2014; MRC, 2012). In particular, damages on agriculture in Cambodia are expected to decline substantially, given that flooded areas
are projected to reduce under a proposed dam scenario (MRC, 2010). Further, MRC (2010) noted that coupling dams and climate
change would attenuate Cambodia’s flood extent on average. Nonetheless, the scale of the flooding and the consequence of agricultural
damage remains uncertain due to the heterogeneity of the floodplain’s characteristics, the degree of climate change impacts, and the
dam regulations.
So far, flooding concerns have been raised and concentrated from the Mekong River Basin (MRB) to the Lower Mekong River Basin
(LMB) and the countries within. Although the MRB undergoes annual flood recurrence along the floodplain, which is crucial to
sustaining ecosystem, agriculture, and fisheries (van Oorschot et al., 2018), floodwaters are often cited for putting the livelihood in the
basin at high risk, especially in the LMB (Dutta et al., 2007a), given its susceptibility to flooding owing to the static low-lying
topography and dense population (Dandridge et al., 2019). On top of that, the hazard will be driven dynamically by climate
change in this basin, in which its severity, duration, and frequency will alarmingly rise (Thoeun, 2015; Try et al., 2020b). The severity
of historical flooding has already been underscored in terms of its components, including flood extent, volume, and resultant damages;
for instance, extreme flooding in 2000, 2001, and 2011 dictated massive damages in the LMB of over 1.2 billion US$ combined, not to
mention casualties and damages between 2002 and 2010 (MRC, 2015). Prospectively, climate change effects will be attended by
significant changes in hydrological extremes in the MRB (Hoang et al., 2016). Likewise, Try et al. (2020b) attested substantial increases
in high flow in the MRB and peak flood extent along with other flood attributes in the LMB by the end of this century as a result of
climate.
Being a main part of the LMB, Cambodia experiences the Mekong River flooding extensively owing to the low-lying terrain con­
taining two major floodplains along the Tonle Sap Lake and the Mekong River. Irrespective of the seasonal flooding’s benefits to
Cambodia’s agriculture, it is discovered that flooding brings socio-economic strains over the agricultural sector. Well-documented
since the 1990 s, Cambodia has suffered flooding at a relatively frequent rate, approximately every two years (MRC, 2012; RGC
and WFP, 2003). Exceptionally, the 2000 flood was the worst in 70 years in the country (Flower and Fortnam, 2015; Imhoff, 2016), and
was categorized as the severe flood in Cambodia’s neighboring countries (MRC, 2012). Another severe flood with similar intensity as in
2000 struck the country in 2011, whilst the damages in the former event were borne far higher than those in the latter event (Imhoff,
2016). Ever since 2000, particularly in Cambodia, flooding has become more frequent and intense, and in the meantime, climate
change is deemed to justify the flood’s frequency and intensity, along with other changes on land (Helmers and Jegillos, 2004).
The utilization of a distributed hydrodynamic model in the low floodplain area plays an important role in predicting flood hazards
and their related damages. This invaluable tool considers the complex interactions among climate conditions, land surface informa­
tion, and river characteristics. The fully distributed Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model is a comprehensive computational tool
that employs a two-dimensional diffusive wave approach to predict flood behavior in the river basin scale. The RRI model has widely
demonstrated a good performance in flood simulation across various river basins, such as the Chao Phraya River Basin in Thailand
(Sayama et al., 2015), the MRB (Try et al., 2022a, 2020b), river basins in Myanmar (Bhagabati and Kawasaki, 2017; Khaing et al.,
2019), the Batanghari River Basin in Indonesia (Yamamoto et al., 2021), the Kabul River Basin in Afghanistan (Sayama et al., 2012),
and other various river basins in Japan (Sayama et al., 2020). In this study, the RRI model will also be used for predicting flood hazards
in the Cambodian floodplain of the LMB.
So far, several studies have focused on assessing flood damage in the LMB and Cambodian floodplain (Chung et al., 2019; Kwak
et al., 2015a; Okazumi et al., 2014; Shrestha et al., 2014; Shrestha and Kawasaki, 2020). However, Shrestha et al. (2019) considered
the effects of climate change in various river basins in Southeast Asia, including the Cambodian floodplain. Nevertheless, there has
been no study yet specifically examining the future projections of agricultural damages in the Cambodian floodplain that involve
climate change and interplay with dam operation regarding extreme flood events. It remains unknown to what extent flood severity in
the Cambodian floodplain will be either minimized or amplified due to these two combined dynamic factors. Consequently, inves­
tigating these aspects is crucial from a scientific standpoint, as it will provide a prerequisite for the basin’s development and man­
agement. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the potential impacts of future climate change and dam construction on
flood hazards and its associated agricultural damages during extreme flood events in the Cambodian floodplain of the LMB.

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S. Try et al. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 49 (2023) 101508

2. Methodology

2.1. Study area

The Mekong River is the 12th longest and one of the largest river basins in the world. Originated from the Tibetan highlands, the
Mekong River flows across six countries of China, Myanmar, Laos PDR, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam, with a total drainage area of
795,000 km2 (Fig. 1a). The LMB is the source of livelihood for health and wellbeing of 60 million people, which agriculture and fishery
are their main activities (MRC, 2023). The annual discharge of the basin is 14,500 m3/s. The hydrological cycle of the basin is mainly
governed by the monsoon climate with two distinctive seasons: wet season (May-October) and dry season (November-April) (MRC,
2005). The water level rise during the flood season causes significant damage to most areas in the LMB, with approximately USD 60–70
million in annual economic loss (MRC, 2010).

2.2. Flood inundation modeling

This study used a fully distributed rainfall-runoff-inundation (RRI) model to simulate flood hazards. The RRI model was set up with
the spatial resolution of 2.5 arc-minutes (~ 4613 m) for the whole MRB for river discharge simulation and 60 arc-seconds (approx­
imately 1832 m) for simulation of flood inundation in the LMB considering discharge as boundary condition input at Stung Treng
(Fig. 1b). The topographic data, including digital elevation model, flow direction, and flow accumulation were obtained and derived
from the Multi-Error-Removed-Improved-Terrain (MERIT DEM, Yamazaki et al., 2017). The model input data of 12 river cross sections
along the mainstream of the Mekong River were taken from the Mekong River Commission, land use from MODIS (production:
MCD12Q1, Friedl et al., 2010), and surface evapotranspiration from the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis dataset (JRA-55, Kobayashi et al.,
2015).
The RRI model was integrated with the global optimization tool of the Shuffled Complex Evolution developed by the University of
Arizona (SCE-UA) (Duan et al., 1994) to calibrate the sensitive parameter inputs of the RRI model. Five parameters were used for the
calibration: Manning’s roughness coefficients for the river channel, soil surface porosity, lateral saturated hydraulic conductivity,
unsaturated porosity, and the coefficient of unsaturated hydraulic conductivity. The SCE-UA algorithm searched for the optimal values
of these five parameters within the range of low and high parameter values for 500 iterations. The RRI model then utilized these

Fig. 1. The Mekong River Basin from the Tibetan highlands to South China Sea and discharge location (a) and Cambodian floodplain in the Lower
Mekong Basin (b).

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S. Try et al. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 49 (2023) 101508

parameter values obtained from the SCE-UA and performed a total of 500 simulations. More detail information of the RRI model,
optimized parameter values, and results of simulation performance for both river discharge and flood inundation in the MRB and LMB
can be found in the Supplementary File.

2.3. Climate change dataset and dam construction

Climate change is one of the main trigger to increase the magnitude and severity of extreme floods in the LMB (Hoang et al., 2016;
Perera et al., 2017; Try et al., 2020a, 2020b; Västilä et al., 2010). This study used a super-high-resolution Atmospheric General Cir­
culation Model (MRI-AGCM3.2S) with 20 km spatial resolution (Mizuta et al., 2012) and a large ensemble Database for Policy
Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF) with 60 km (Mizuta et al., 2017) as main input for climate change on flood
hazard and agricultural damage investigation. MRI-AGCM3.2S dataset was bias-corrected and applied for the whole MRB by Try et al.
(2020b) from the baseline period (1979–2003) future projection scenarios (2075–2099) using four different patterns of sea surface
temperature. d4PDF dataset was investigated and fitted with flood extreme events using generalized extreme value (GEV) by Try et al.
(2020a) under + 4 K increasing temperature scenarios. This d4PDF dataset consists of 100-ensemble members in the baseline period of
1951–2010 (6000-year for serial simulation) and 90-ensemble members for future projection in 2051–2110 (5400-year of serial
simulation). This study evaluated the changes in flood hazard and damages for the extreme flood events of 25-year return periods from
MRI-AGCM3.2S and 10-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods from d4PDF dataset.
The existing and proposed 126 dams in the main river and the tributaries of the Mekong River, obtained from the Mekong River
Commission (MRC, 2019), were included to investigate the impacts of dam development (see Fig. 1 for dam location in the MRB). The
dam development was integrated with the RRI model to simulate its impacts on river flow and downstream flood inundation. The
previous studies found that the dam in the MRB with large reservoir capacity have significantly reduced flood pulses and increased the
low-flow discharge along the entire Mekong during the last few decades (Lu and Chua, 2021; Ly et al., 2021; Van Binh et al., 2020). The
detailed information of dam operation rules in the MRB is not available. The purpose of dam constructions in the MRB is mainly for
hydropower generation; therefore, this study assumed the dam operation is to maximize the power generation by storing the water in
the full capacity of reservoir in rainy season and discharging the reservoir in the dry season. Detail algorithm of dam operation and its
integration with the RRI model were adopted from Ly et al. (2021).

Fig. 2. Schematic diagram of flood damage assessment methodology in this study.

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S. Try et al. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 49 (2023) 101508

2.4. Agricultural damage assessment

Fig. 2. shows the flowchart of the calculation process of flood hazard and agricultural economic damage assessment. First, to assess
the flood hazard, the spatiotemporal information of flood inundation was taken from simulated results of the RRI model. Second, to
assess the flood vulnerability in this study, agricultural damage curves from the Mekong River Commission (MRC, 2009) was used to
estimate the relative damage in function of flood depth and its duration. The agricultural flood damage was neglected when the
floodwater depth was less than 0.5 m. The exposure area of flood damage was masked using wet season rice area of land use type in
Cambodia. According to the data of the Ministry of Planning of the Royal Government of Cambodia in 2009, the average rice yield in
Cambodia is 392 US$/ha, which was used by previous studies (Chung et al., 2019; Kwak et al., 2015a; Okazumi et al., 2014; Shrestha
et al., 2014). The calculation of agricultural economic damage value was performed using the following equation:

Economic Damage Value = Rice Yield × Damage Area × Yield Loss (1)

According to the crop calendar for Cambodia, the wet season rice is usually started growing in June-July in the Cambodian
floodplain. The farmers in Cambodia usually grow short-duration rice (90–110 days) until the harvest period in October or November.
The damage assessment in this study was calculated during the growing period (September-November) as after sowing and before the
growing period using the crop calendar of Cambodia (Fig. 3). The crop calendar for major food crop in Cambodia was modified from
FAO/GIEWS (2020).
Four historical flood events in 2000, 2006, 2009, and 2011 were selected for the verification period of the damage assessment
method in this study. The agricultural damage areas and total economic damages due to flooding were verified by comparing with the
referenced report. Finally, the same procedure of flood damage assessment was applied to assess the future potential damage caused by
climate change and dam construction.

3. Result and discussion

3.1. Agricultural flood damage assessment of historical flood events

The flood hazard in the Cambodia floodplain was simulated by the RRI model. The RRI model simulation performance was vali­
dated in terms of river discharge and downstream flood inundation by previous studies of Try et al. (2020a), (2020b), (2020c). Table 1
compares the estimated flood-damaged areas and total agricultural damages in this study compared with other reference sources. For
the 2000 flood, among the total flooded area of 2.30 million ha in the Cambodian floodplain, the simulated agricultural damage area
was 420,470 ha compared to the referenced damage area of 402,940 ha reported by Ros et al. (2011). The simulation of total agri­
cultural damages was 147.53 million US$, comparable to the reference damages of 155.10 million US$ estimated by Shrestha et al.
(2014). For 2006 and 2009 flood events, the total flooded areas were 2.19 and 1.83 million ha, in which the related damage areas were
438,200 and 209,400 ha, respectively. There was no referenced information of damage for these flood events. The total economic
damages in the 2006 flood were 148.65 million US$ compared to 123.40 million US$ estimated by Shrestha et al. (2014), total
damages in 2009 was estimated to be 59.49 million, close to 56.50 and 60.60 million US$ reported by RGC (2010) and ADB (2012).
2011 flood was considered to be the most severe event with total flooded area of 2.39 billion ha in Cambodia where the estimated
damage areas were 563,640 ha compared to referenced data 400,000 ha from ADB (2012) and 583,480 ha from Shrestha et al. (2019).
The total economic damages in this largest flood event were estimated to be up to 198.33 million US$ while the reference sources
varied between 179.60 and 197.00 million US$ (ADB, 2012; Kwak et al., 2015a; Shrestha et al., 2019). The spatial distributions of
flood depth during the peak time for 2000, 2006, 2009, and 2011 floods and their estimated agricultural damages were shown in Fig. 4.
Overall, the damage areas and total economic damages evaluated in this study are comparable to reference sources and previous
studies.

3.2. Impacts of climate change and dam construction on extreme flood hazard

After verification and validation of the method of estimation of damage area and total economic damages with reference sources,
the same calculation procedures were used to investigate the impacts of future climate change and dam construction on flooding the
Cambodian floodplain. Table 2 compares the present climate and future projection of extreme flood events in the Cambodian
floodplain of the LMB using different climate models under different future projection scenarios. The results from the MRI-AGCM3.2S
model showed an increase in peak discharge (13–20%), flood area (7–11%), and flood volume (16–23%) under four different patterns

Fig. 3. Crop calendar for major food crop in Cambodia.

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S. Try et al. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 49 (2023) 101508

Table 1
Comparison of total agricultural flood damaged area and economical damage in historical flood events in this study with other referenced sources.
Flood Total flood Simulated damaged Referenced damaged Simulated Referenced Reference sources
event area area [ha] area [ha] economic damage economic damage
[million ha] [million US$] [million US$]

2000 2.30 420,470 402,940a 147.53 155.10b a

Reported byRos et al. (2011)
b
Calculated byShrestha et al. (2014)
2006 2.19 438,200 - 148.65 123.40c c
Calculated byShrestha et al. (2014)
2009 1.83 209,400 - 59.49 56.50d d
Reported byRGC (2010)
60.00e e
Reported byADB (2012)
2011 2.39 563,640 400,000f 198.33 179.60f f
Reported byADB (2012)
583,480g 189.00g g
Calculated byShrestha et al. (2019)
197.00h h
Calculated by Kwak et al. (2015b)

of sea surface temperature scenarios. Under the future projection under + 4 K warming scenario from the d4PDF dataset, the
magnitude of 10-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods indicated an increase by 21%, 25%, 33% for peak discharge, 12%, 14%,
17% for flood area, and 26%, 28%, 32% for flood water volume, respectively.
In addition, the integrated impacts of projected climate change and future dam construction were also figured out as shown in
Table 3. The combined effects of future 126 dams (MRC, 2019) and MRI-AGCM3.2S model showed an increase of peak discharge 0–6%,
flood area 3–7%, and flood volume 4–12% for range sea surface temperature scenarios. The effects from dam construction and climate
change revealed the rising of the magnitude of extreme flood events by 7%, 11%, 21% for peak discharge; 7%, 10%, 14% for flood area;
and 13%, 18%, 25% for flood volume, respectively. The spatial distribution and comparison between present and future climate
change and integrated impacts of climate change and dam construction for the extreme events of 10-year, 50-year, and 100-year return
periods could be seen in Fig. 5.

3.3. Impacts of climate change and dam construction on agricultural damage

Flood damage assessment under future climate change impacts were shown in Table 4. The MRI-AGCM3.2S climate model showed
an increase of damage area from the present climate (1979–2003) to future climate (2075–2099) between 14% and 23% under
different sea surface temperature scenarios. The total agricultural damages in the Cambodian floodplain would increase up to 18–29%
under the same climate model and scenarios. Moreover, the future projection of the d4PDF dataset pointed out a similar increase of
damaged areas and economic damages. The relative change of extreme events would increase by 23%, 33%, and 36% for damage areas
and 32%, 38%, and 39% for agricultural damages for 10-year, 50-year, and 100-year flood events (Table 4), respectively. The inte­
grated impacts from climate change and dam construction were 4–11% for flood areas and 5–13% for economic damages for various
sea surface temperature scenarios from MRI-AGCM3.2S (Table 4). These combined impacts would affect the 10-year flood by incre­
ment from the present to future climate with damage area by 13% and economic damages by 17%. Similar impacts were found for 50-
year and 100-year flood events with rising of 20% and 29% for damage area and 24% and 31% for agricultural flood damages.Fig. 6.

3.4. Flood risk curves of present and future from ensemble climate dataset

Tanaka et al. (2018) suggested that length of 60 years is not sufficient to plot flood damages, and the combined approach of all
ensemble members of climate simulation is more effective to derive flood risk curves. Therefore, this study generated flood risk curves
from 100 ensembles of present and 90 ensembles for future climates from d4PDF dataset (Fig. 7). The black line shows the flood risk
curves for all ensemble members from present (6000-year), and red and blue lines are for future ensemble climate only and with dam
development scenario. The flood risk curves clearly showed an increase of future flood risk in the future under 4 K increase of global
mean temperature. The impacts from future dam construction revealed reduction of future flood in the Cambodian floodplain of the
LMB. The area under curve in Fig. 7 is average annual loss of flood damages for each scenario. At the present climate, average annual
loss is 113 million US$. This average annual loss increases up to 137 and 119 million US$ for future climate change and integrated
impact of climate change dam development scenarios.

4. Discussion

The studies of flood in the MRB and LMB have been previously done (Dutta et al., 2007b; Pokhrel et al., 2018b; Try et al., 2020b,
2022b); however, their studies mainly focused on flood hazards. The study on flood damages provided another further understanding
and knowledge more detail characteristics of flood. Therefore, this study assessed the agricultural damages due to floods using results
from a distributed RRI model in the Cambodian floodplain of the LMB. The outputs from the same RRI model was employed to
quantitatively estimate the flood damage in various studies, including Bogo River Basin in Myanmar (Shrestha and Kawasaki, 2020),
Pampanga River Basin in the Philippines (Ohara et al., 2016), West Rapti River Basin in Nepal (Perera et al., 2015), and other river
basins in Southeast Asia (Shrestha et al., 2019). These case studies confirmed the performance for reasonable simulation of the RRI
model in flood hazards and its related risk.
The results in this study clearly showed the severe effect of future climate change and dam construction on altering the

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S. Try et al. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 49 (2023) 101508

Fig. 4. Spatial distribution of flood depth and agricultural damages in four historical flood events in 2000, 2006, 2009, and 2011. The agricultural
damages were calculated at each grid cell of 1800 m resolution.

characteristics of downstream flood and agricultural damages of the MRB. Overall, the climate change effect would be more significant
to increase the flood inundation magnitude in the future projected periods in 2075–2099 (MRI-AGCM3.2S dataset) and 2051–2110
(d4PDF dataset) in the LMB, compared to the reduction of flooded water to be reduced by the dam reservoir. The cumulative impacts of

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S. Try et al. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 49 (2023) 101508

Table 2
Comparison of present and future projection of flood hazard in Cambodian floodplain of LMB under climate change impact.
Climate model Extreme event Climate scenario Period Annual peak discharge Total flood area Total flood volume
[m3/s] [× 106 ha] [× 109 m3]

MRI-AGCM3.2S 25-year flood SPA_m01 1979–2003 55,578 2.32 76.75

SFA_rcp85 2075–2099 66,610 (+20%) 2.58 (+11%) 94.27 (+23%)
SFA_ rcp85_c1 63,018 (+13%) 2.49 (+7%) 88.69 (+16%)
SFA_ rcp85_c2 66,918 (+20%) 2.58 (+11%) 94.73 (+23%)
SFA_ rcp85_c3 64,796 (+17%) 2.54 (+9%) 91.50 (+19%)
d4PDF 10-year flood HPB 1951–2010 50,980 2.20 68.99
HFB_4K 2051–2110 61,768 (+21%) 2.46 (+12%) 86.74 (+26%)
50-year flood HPB 1951–2010 61,588 2.46 86.45
HFB_4K 2051–2110 77,103 (+25%) 2.80 (+14%) 110.35 (+28%)
100-year flood HPB 1951–2010 67,400 2.59 95.43
HFB_4K 2051–2110 89,331 (+33%) 3.03 (+17%) 125.79 (+32%)

*Note: SPA_m01 represents present climate from MRI-AGCM3.2S model, and SFA_rcp85 indicates different patterns of sea surface temperature
scenarios. HPB is the present climate from d4PDF dataset, and HFB_4K is the future 4 K increasing scenarios. The values in the bracket are the
percentage of the changes from the present to each future scenario.

Table 3
Comparison of present and future projection of flood inundation in Cambodian floodplain of LMB under integrated impact of climate change and dam
construction.
Climate model Extreme event Climate scenario Period Annual peak discharge Total flood area Total flood volume
[m3/s] [× 106 ha] [× 109 m3]

MRI-AGCM3.2S 25-year flood SPA_m01 1979–2003 55,578 2.32 76.75

SFA_rcp85_dam 2075–2099 58,624 (+5%) 2.47 (+6%) 85.27 (+11%)
SFA_ rcp85_c1_dam 55,481 (+0%) 2.40 (+3%) 79.99 (+4%)
SFA_ rcp85_c2_dam 58,859 (+6%) 2.48 (+7%) 85.68 (+12%)
SFA_ rcp85_c3_dam 57,106 (+3%) 2.43 (+5%) 82.62 (+8%)
d4PDF 10-year flood HPB 1951–2010 50,980 2.20 68.99
HFB_4K_dam 2051–2110 54,327 (+7%) 2.36 (+7%) 78.10 (+13%)
50-year flood HPB 1951–2010 61,588 2.46 86.45
HFB_4K_dam 2051–2110 68,507 (+11%) 2.70 (+10%) 101.58 (+18%)
100-year flood HPB 1951–2010 67,400 2.59 95.43
HFB_4K_dam 2051–2110 81,734 (+21%) 2.96 (+14%) 118.88 (+25%)

*Note: Similar to Table 2, SPA_m01 and SFA_rcp85 are the present and future projections including combined impacts from climate change and dam
construction for MRI-AGCM3.2S model. HPB and HFB_4K_dam represent the present climate from d4PDF dataset and the future impacts from climate
and dam construction. The values in the bracket are the percentage of the changes from present to each future scenario.

climate change and dam construction showed an increase of future possible flood hazards and agricultural damages of extreme flood
events in the Cambodian floodplain of the LMB. Last but not least, appropriate activities and countermeasures should be prepared for
response and adaptation to reduce the possibility of these severe extreme flood events.
In this study, we investigated the quantitative assessment of flood hazards and their agricultural damages under the effect of
climate change and upstream dam reservoir operation in the Cambodian floodplain of the Mekong River Basin. We validated the results
of flood hazard with observed flow and flood extend. Moreover, the calculated results of agricultural flood damages were also checked
and compared with referenced reports and data. Overall, the simulated results were acceptable with observation in both flood hazards
and flood damages. However, there might be some uncertainties, including the limitation of survey data, the accuracy of survey data,
and the accuracy of topographic and exposure data. For instance, there was no reference report for damage areas for flood events in
2006 and 2009. For total agricultural damages in 2009 flood, there was different information of economic damages. i.e., RGC (2010)
reported the total agricultural damages of 56.50 million US$, while ADB (2012) showed the damages of 60.00 million US$.
The previous study by Try et al. (2020a) considered only six mainstream dams in China (in the upstream of Mekong basin) of the
Mekong River to check if these already constructed dams had impacts on change flow and inundation in downstream area in Cambodia
during the simulation periods (1983–2010). By 2010, the concern from dam impacts was mainly caused by dam in China while there
was almost no dam construction along the mainstream of the Mekong River in below that Chinese dam. The result from that study
found that there was little impact from far dam constructions influencing the peak flood at downstream. This was due to the long
traveling distance. After 2010 there were many more hydropower dams in middle and downstream stream in Lao PDR, Thailand, and
Cambodia along the mainstream and its tributaries were constructed and planned for construction. Therefore, this study evaluated the
impact of hydropower dams combined with climate change impact in a completed set of all dams in China, Lao PDR, Thailand, and
Cambodia, including the operational dam, dam under construction, and proposed hydropower dams in both mainstream and tribu­
taries of the river. By considering all dam constructions in the MRB, they became a significant factor driving change in hydrological
condition as well as flood characteristics in the Cambodian floodplain of the LMB.
Dams and reservoirs could store water amount, which could alter river flow and downstream flood magnitude. This would change

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S. Try et al. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 49 (2023) 101508

Fig. 5. Comparison of flood depth of 10-year, 50-year, and 100-year flood events from the present climate to future climate change (CC) and
integrated impacts of climate change and dam construction (CC+Dam).

the characteristics of floods by reducing the peak flood. This study showed that the flood hazards and damages could be reduced by
dam and reservoir construction in the mainstream and tributaries of the Mekong River. However, we have assumed that all dam
reservoirs are operated to maximize hydropower generation. Different types of reservoir operation rules might have different effects
and result in downstream floods and their damages. For example, if the dams are operated for flood control, this might reduce flood
magnitude and damage more than the hydropower generation rule.
The investigation of the impact of climate change from the MRI-AGCM3.2S dataset under different sea surface temperature and the
large ensemble d4PDF dataset under 4 K increasing scenario (equivalent to RCP8.5) was conducted. However, other different
greenhouse gas emission scenarios such as RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP6.0 would generate different results on climate change projection
and flood inundation in the LMB. A variety of future projections scenarios should be considered in the prospective study to provide
more scenarios of the future possibility of change under climate. Moreover, land use in the future project was assumed to be static from
the present climate. Future land use change projections should also be considered in future study.

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Table 4
Comparison of results of estimated damaged area and agricultural damages from present to future climate projections between climate change (CC) impact only and integrated impact of CC and dam.
Climate model Extreme Climate Period Damaged area for CC only Damaged area for CC and dam Agricultural damage for CC Agricultural damage for CC and
event scenario [× 103ha] [× 103ha] only dam
[Million US$] [Million US$]

MRI- 25-year flood SPA_m01 1979–2003 531.86 183.47

AGCM3.2S SFA_rcp85 2075–2099 650.95 (+22%) 582.04 (+9%) 235.62 (+28%) 207.11 (+13%)
SFA_ rcp85_c1 604.12 (+14%) 554.27 (+4%) 216.64 (+18%) 193.11 (+5%)
SFA_ rcp85_c2 654.29 (+23%) 588.39 (+11%) 237.25 (+29%) 207.99 (+13%)
10

SFA_ rcp85_c3 626.19 (+18%) 575.68 (+8%) 225.09 (+23%) 200.47 (+9%)
d4PDF 10-year flood HPB 1951–2010 478.68 160.35
HFB_4K 2051–2110 590.73 (+23%) 539.56 (+13%) 211.15 (+32%) 188.05 (+17%)
50-year flood HPB 1951–2010 589.40 210.26
HFB_4K 2051–2110 784.41 (+33%) 708.48 (+20%) 289.25 (+38%) 260.77 (+24%)
100-year HPB 1951–2010 659.98 239.69
flood HFB_4K 2051–2110 900.82 (+36%) 852.65 (+29%) 332.21 (+39%) 314.87 (+31%)

*Note: SPA_m01 and SFA_rcp85 are the present and future projections under climate change impact from MRI-AGCM3.2S model. HPB and HFB_4K represent the present climate from d4PDF dataset. The
values in the bracket are the percentage of the changes from present to each future scenario.

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 49 (2023) 101508

S. Try et al. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 49 (2023) 101508

Fig. 6. Comparison of flood agricultural damages of 10-year, 50-year, and 100-year flood events from the present climate to future climate change
(CC) and integrated impacts of climate change and dam construction (CC+Dam).

5. Conclusion

This study investigated the potential impacts of future climate change and dam constructions on flood hazards and agricultural
damages in the Cambodian floodplain of the Mekong River. This study used a large ensemble climate data from d4PDF dataset which
enabled to construct the flood damage curves. The results revealed that the magnitudes and potential damages of the future extreme
flood events would be significantly increase under climate change impact. These increases would be slightly reduced by the storing of
water in the dam reservoir along the mainstream and tributaries of the MRB. However, the climate change impacts would have more
influential on enlarging the magnitudes and damages of extreme floods than the reduction caused by dam constructions in the future
projection in the MRB. The effect of dam constructions would reduce the magnitude and damages of the smaller extreme events, while
their impacts are relatively small for bigger extreme events, particularly a 100-year flood event.

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S. Try et al. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 49 (2023) 101508

Fig. 7. Comparison of flood damage curves of present and future climate change under 4 K scenario and dam development.

Funding

This research was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI Grant-in-Aid: 21F21071; the
Higher Education Improvement Project (Credit No. 6221-KH) under the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sport (MoEYS) of the
Kingdom of Cambodia; Japan-ASEAN Science, Technology and Innovation Platform (JASTIP) Project supported by Japan Science and
Technology Agency (JST); and Research Unit for Realization of Sustainable Society of Kyoto University.

Author statement

On behalf of all authors, I would like express my deeply appreciation of the constructive comments on our manuscript entitled
"Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change and Dam Development on Potential Flood Hazard and Damages in the Cambodian Floodplain
of the Lower Mekong Basin" co-authored by Sophal Try, Takahiro Sayama, Sophea Rom Phy, Ty Sok, Steven Ly, and Chantha Oeurng.
We have revised and updated the manuscript following your comments. Please find our response to your each comment as following.

Declaration of Competing Interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to
influence the work reported in this paper.

Data availability

Data will be made available on request.

Acknowledgement

The authors would like to thank the Mekong River Commission for providing hydrological data. The climate datasets used in this
study were obtained from Data Integration and Analysis System Program (DIAS) at https://diasjp.net/en/service/d4pdf-data-down­
load/.

Appendix A. Supporting information

Supplementary data associated with this article can be found in the online version at doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101508.

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