ABN AMRO Presentation Morgan Stanley Conference March 2016
ABN AMRO Presentation Morgan Stanley Conference March 2016
ABN AMRO Presentation Morgan Stanley Conference March 2016
Note(s):
1. Equity attributable to the owners of the parent company
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An attractive combination of businesses
Funding Funding gap LtD: 152% Funding surplus LtD: 25% Funding gap LtD: 121%
- Cross referrals Entrepreneurs and executives from Corporate Banking to Private Banking
- Up/Downstreaming Retail Banking business clients to and from Corporate Banking
Note(s):
1. FY2015 figures Investment research, hedging products Investment research, hedging products
2. Retail Banking includes some international
activities through MoneYou
3. Energy, Commodities and Transportation Daily banking services and mortgages
Clients
3
Strategic priorities are reflected in tangible initiatives
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Financial targets
10 – 13% 50%
(in the coming years) (as from and over 2017)
Note(s):
1. Management discretion and subject to regulatory requirements. The envisaged dividend-pay-out ratio is based on the annual reported net profit after deduction of coupon payments on capital instruments that are treated as
equity instruments for accounting purposes
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Leading Dutch bank with a transparent and client driven business model
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1 Domestic leadership in Retail, Private and Corporate Banking
Retail Banking 20-25% market share key products… …no. 1 positions in Private and Corporate Banking
Products Rank Segment Rank
Private Banking 4
New mortgage production 1 1 1
Note(s):
1. 20% in new mortgage production in 2015; source: Dutch land register, Hypotheken Scan January – December 2015
2. C. 21% market share in savings including Private Banking in the Netherlands (31 December 2015); source: calculated on the basis of information from DNB Domestic MFI-statistics, table 5.2.6, December 2015, and company
research. Market position H1 2015 calculated on the basis of information from DNB Domestic MFI-statistics, table 5.2.6, June 2015, quarterly/annual reports of competitors, and company research
3. Based on number of credit cards, calculated on the basis of information from DNB Payment statistics Retail payments, table t5.12, December 2015 and company research
4. Ranking NL based on 2012 data, as 2014 and 2013 data on client assets were not available for a number of banks
5. EUR 20 – 250 m revenues ; source: TNS NIPO industry standard survey asking clients to identify their ‘primary bank’ relationships
6. > EUR 250 m revenues; source: Greenwich industry standard survey asking clients to identify their ‘primary bank’ relationships
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2 Moderate risk profile: strong capitalisation and clean balance sheet
Moderate risk profile embedded in the organisation Strong capitalisation and asset quality
Note(s):
1. Impaired ratio and coverage ratio on total loans and receivables
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Chain analysis on exposure to oil price risk for ECT Clients
ECT Client segment Activity / Business Line % of ECT Clients Estimated Sensitivity
40% (EUR 12-13bn) is Commodities - Energy Trade Finance Limited exposure to oil
~30%
Oil & Gas related price risk
FPSO, Midstream, Corporate Lending
Indirect exposure to oil
exposures Energy Clients EUR 5.3bn Offshore Drilling & Other Offshore Companies ~6%
price risk
Upstream (Reserve Base Lending) ~4% Exposure to oil price risk
Note(s):
1. Two oil price scenarios were used, with $20 or $30 oil price for the first 6 months, followed by 12 months with an oil price of $30
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3 Favourable exposure to the Dutch economy, characterised by strong
fundamentals and a cyclical upturn
The Dutch economy has strong fundamentals … …and is entering a period of economic growth…
International orientation (as % GDP) 2015E Real GDP growth (%)
1.9% 1.7% 1.9%
Highly competitive 1.0% 1.5% 1.2%
1.6%
Current account 9.6 0.9%
Globally ranked no. 5 by WEF
Sound financials Pension fund assets 159.3 -0.2%
-0.7% -0.5%
-1.1%
Large, persistent external surplus
Budget deficit (2.0)
Major recent reforms (pensions,
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E
labour market, health care,
Government debt 66.7 Netherlands Eurozone
housing market)
Source: CBS, ABN AMRO Group Economics estimates, OECD as of December 2014 for pension fund assets Source: CBS, Eurostat, ABN AMRO Group Economics estimates 17 February 2016
…with the housing market strongly improving… …as reflected in the provisioning trends
115 220 ABN AMRO 4Q rolling cost of risk (bps)
105 190 75
95 160 50
85 130 25
75 100 0
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
House prices (index; lhs) Transactions (12-m total x1000; rhs) 2013 2014 2015
Source: CBS, January 2016
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Geographical diversification and growth opportunities through capability-led
4 international activities
Note(s): All data as of YE2015, market positions in Private Banking Germany and France as of 2014
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Delivering attractive returns for shareholders, with identified levers for further
5 efficiency improvements
Generating attractive ROE levels, with 2015 ROE at 12.0% Return on Equity development
Additionally major initiatives are underway to drive further
efficiency improvements: 18%
4Q rolling average ROE
TOPS2020: Comprehensive programme to transform the
Group-wide IT platform
12% 10-13%
10-13%ROE
ROEtarget
targetrange
range
Digitalisation in Retail Banking: Accelerate
digitalisation of key client processes, further
concentration of branch network 6%
These cost savings programmes should mitigate the impact
of increasing regulatory levies and costs
Next to cost savings, these projects bring important 0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
additional process and client benefits, e.g. more agile IT,
improved customer experience 2013 2014 2015
TOPS2020 and Retail Digitalisation1… … expected to drive C/I ratio further down
EUR m
In 2018-2020 expect lower investments and further 80%
Investments 4Q rolling average C/I ratio
increase in savings related to efficiency initiatives
Recurrent savings 266
(further trending down of C/I ratio)
182 195
159 150 65%
138
101
56-60% C/I target range 2017
59
25
50%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Note(s):
1. Investments and cost savings are shown pre-tax 2013 2014 2015
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Impact of NIRP depends on behaviour of clients and competitors
Hedging the balance sheet against interest rate movements helps to stabilise NII
Conceptually, interest rate risk is managed by swapping both assets and liabilities to floating rate. In practice what we do is;
- Wholesale funding as well as bonds in the liquidity buffer are swapped to a floating rate on an individual basis
- Mortgages, consumer loans, commercial loans and deposits are managed on a portfolio basis, where only the net interest
exposure is hedged with swap contracts
As a result, interest income is predominantly driven by the commercial margins and volume developments
As of YE2015, a 200bp decline / rise in interest rates over 12 month period leads to <2% decrease / increase of NII
Commercial loans Limited impact on margins, though a large barrier exists to pay a client for lending money
Deposits Still room to move lower for retail clients with main savings rate at around 60bp, but entering uncharted territory
and client behaviour will become very hard to predict
Ultimately NII will be impacted if retail deposits are kept positive in a strongly negative rate environment
Some professional counterparties and large private banking clients are already charged for their deposits
Wholesale funding Interest rate risk is hedged, so costs are purely driven by credit spread of ABN AMRO
Liquidity buffer Interest rate risk is hedged, so yield is also purely driven by credit spreads
Looking to further optimise the cash held at central banks
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6 Pay-out capacity underpinned by strong capital generation and discipline
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7 Highly experienced management team with proven track record
Retail branches
Reduction
70% 2009-2015
15.5% c. 380
12.0% 62% 260 branches
8.6% 8.9%
8,455 FTEs
8,455 Reduction
7,659 7,659
135% 22,048 2009-2015
c. 7,500
FTEs
109% 5,335 5,228
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Leading Dutch bank with a transparent and client driven business model
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annex
Full year and Q4 2015 highlights
FY highlights Q4 highlights
EUR 1,924m underlying net profit, up 24%; Underlying net profit EUR 272m, down 32%
EPS EUR 2.03 vs. EUR 1.65 for 2014 vs. Q4 2014
Income up 5%, higher fees in PB and CB and Income 4% lower, primarily due to negative
positive impact CVA/DVA/FVA incidentals in Q4 2015
Expenses up 8% primarily caused by higher Expenses up 9% primarily caused by EUR
regulatory levies*, project and pension costs 129m higher regulatory levies*
Impairments 57% lower, in all segments Improvement in Dutch economy and housing
market reflected in low impairments, down
Realisation of targets remains on track: 31% compared to Q4 2014
Cost/income at 61.8%, ROE at 12.0%, fully-
loaded CET1 at 15.5%
Final dividend of EUR 0.44 per share
proposed, total dividend of EUR 0.81 per
share or 40% dividend pay-out ratio
* Bank tax, National Resolution Funds (NRF), (European) Deposit Guarantee Scheme (DGS) in total EUR 220m (pre-tax) in Q4 2015
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Results
Note(s):
1. Earnings consist of underlying net profit excluding reserved payments for AT 1 Capital securities and results attributable to non-controlling interests
2. Dividend is based on reported net profit excluding net reserved coupons for AT1 capital securities and results attributable to non-controlling interests.
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Interest income
In 2015 NII remained more or less around EUR 1.5bn each quarter
Q4 NII 8% lower compared with Q4 2014, driven by a positive incidental last year and a provision for Euribor
mortgages and higher liquidity buffer costs in Q4 2015
Mortgage and corporate loan margins improved, mortgage and consumer loan volumes decreased
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Net Fee and Other operating income
Fee income increases over time Volatile CVA, DVA and FVA effects
EUR m EUR m
600 70
Net fee and commission income FVA CVA/DVA
Other operating income
35
400
200
-35
0 -70
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015
Fee income up for both full year and Q4, driven by all business segments
Other operating income increased, primarily due to better CVA/DVA/FVA results, higher equity participations
contribution and more favourable hedge accounting results. Partly offset by an additional provision for identified
SMEs with possible interest derivative related issues
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Expenses
600 600
Other expenses
Personnel expenses
Other excl. regulatory levies
300 300
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015
Expenses up 8% in 2015 mainly due to EUR 129m increase in regulatory levies and higher project and pension
costs
Other expenses typically peak in Q4 due to regulatory levies2
Note(s):
1. As of 2015 the annual Dutch pension contribution is maximised at 35% of the Dutch pensionable salary, plus a fixed amount of EUR 25 m. Actual amount to be paid every year depends on interest rate developments
2. Dutch bank tax for 2012, 2013 and 2014, 2015 includes the Dutch bank tax, National Resolution Funds (NRF) and (European) Deposit Guarantee Scheme (DGS)
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Loan impairments
50 500
25 250
Estimated through-the-cycle
average c. 25-30 bps
0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015
Downward trend of underlying cost of risk started in 2014 and continued in 2015 in line with the improvements in
the Dutch economy and housing market
Cost of Risk declined to 19bps for both Q4 2015 and FY2015
Lower impairments also benefitted from large IBNI releases of EUR 221m in 2015; whereas 2014 included IBNI
charges of EUR 22m
Impairments came down for all products in FY2015
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Segment results
900
1,000
1,226
500 1,079
596 400
160 214 298 14
0
-112
-500 -100
Retail Private Corporate Group Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Banking Banking Banking Functions
2013 2014 2015
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Breakdown of ECT Clients portfolio per sector
Commodities -
Mortgages Commodities Agri
53% Clients, 4%
2015, end of period ECT Clients Energy Clients Commodities Clients Transportation Clients
# Clients Groups ~600 ► ~100 ~325 ~175
On balance exposure (EUR bn) 25.1 ► 4.7 11.1 9.3
Off B/S Issued LCs + Guarantees (EUR bn) 6.3 ► 0.7 5.5 0.2
Sub total 31.4 ► 5.3 16.5 9.5
Off B/S Undrawn committed (EUR bn) 6.7 ► 2.3 2.4 1.9
Total 38.0 ► 7.6 19.0 11.4
Note(s):
1. The allocation of ECT Clients into sub-segments has been based on management views for managerial purposes. Clients can have activities that could be mapped in other sectors.
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Important notice
For the purposes of this disclaimer ABN AMRO Group N.V. and its consolidated subsidiaries are referred to as "ABN AMRO“. This document (the “Presentation”) has been prepared
by ABN AMRO. For purposes of this notice, the Presentation shall include any document that follows and relates to any oral briefings by ABN AMRO and any question-and-answer
session that follows such briefings. The Presentation is informative in nature and is solely intended to provide financial and general information about ABN AMRO following the
publication of its most recent financial figures. This Presentation has been prepared with care and must be read in connection with the relevant Financial Documents (latest
Quarterly Report and Annual Financial Statements, "Financial Documents"). In case of any difference between the Financial Documents and this Presentation the Financial
Documents are leading. The Presentation does not constitute an offer of securities or a solicitation to make such an offer, and may not be used for such purposes, in any jurisdiction
(including the member states of the European Union and the United States) nor does it constitute investment advice or an investment recommendation in respect of any financial
instrument. Any securities referred to in the Presentation have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933. The information in the Presentation is, unless
expressly stated otherwise, not intended for residents of the United States or any "U.S. person" (as defined in Regulation S of the US Securities Act 1933). No reliance may be
placed on the information contained in the Presentation. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by or on behalf of ABN AMRO, or any of its directors or
employees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Presentation. ABN AMRO accepts no liability for any loss arising, directly or indirectly, from the
use of such information. Nothing contained herein shall form the basis of any commitment whatsoever. ABN AMRO has included in this Presentation, and from time to time may
make certain statements in its public statements that may constitute “forward-looking statements”. This includes, without limitation, such statements that include the words ‘expect’,
‘estimate’, ‘project’, ‘anticipate’, ‘should’, ‘intend’, ‘plan’, ‘probability’, ‘risk’, ‘Value-at-Risk (“VaR”)’, ‘target’, ‘goal’, ‘objective’, ‘will’, ‘endeavour’, ‘outlook’, 'optimistic', 'prospects' and
similar expressions or variations on such expressions. In particular, the Presentation may include forward-looking statements relating but not limited to ABN AMRO’s potential
exposures to various types of operational, credit and market risk. Such statements are subject to uncertainties. Forward-looking statements are not historical facts and represent
only ABN AMRO's current views and assumptions on future events, many of which, by their nature, are inherently uncertain and beyond our control. Factors that could cause actual
results to differ materially from those anticipated by forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, (macro)-economic, demographic and political conditions and risks,
actions taken and policies applied by governments and their agencies, financial regulators and private organisations (including credit rating agencies), market conditions and
turbulence in financial and other markets, and the success of ABN AMRO in managing the risks involved in the foregoing. Any forward-looking statements made by ABN AMRO are
current views as at the date they are made. Subject to statutory obligations, ABN AMRO does not intend to publicly update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect events or
circumstances after the date the statements were made, and ABN AMRO assumes no obligation to do so.
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The Netherlands
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Questions
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