Global Trade 2023:

In the beginning of 2023, the worldwide trade of both goods and services started to improve
after a decline in the latter part of 2022. Trade in goods increased by about 1.9%, which is
roughly $100 billion, and trade in services went up by about 2.8%, equivalent to an increase
of about $50 billion compared to the previous quarter.
However, for the upcoming months, there are concerns that global trade may slow down.
This is because the global economic forecasts have been lowered, and there are worrisome
issues like rising prices, financial instability, the conflict in Ukraine, and tensions between
countries. Overall, the outlook for global trade in the second half of 2023 is not very
optimistic, as there are more negative factors than positive ones affecting it.

Global trade growth returns but outlook is poor:

● Trade growth among major economies was mixed in Q1 2023; with notable export
growth in China and India.
● Trade interdependence between China and the United States has decreased, amid
global friend-shoring trends.
● Growth in services trade outperformed growth in goods trade. Trade in ICT related
products continued to decline.
● Trade growth is projected to weaken in Q2 2023, with an unfavourable outlook for
the latter half of the year.

Fiscal Policy 2023

After the COVID-19 pandemic began three years ago, countries initially provided a lot of money
to help their economies. But in 2022, they started to reduce this support due to rising prices and
the end of pandemic-related spending. This happened during some difficult times, like Russia
invading Ukraine and financial problems. The global economy improved quickly, but this created
new problems, especially for poor people and global goals like fighting climate change.

The cost of food remained high in some places because of changes in money exchange rates.
Also, issues like climate change and more elderly people became more important.

Countries' finances went up and down a lot because of the pandemic's effects and government
actions. Although global debt went down a bit from its highest point in 2020, it's still higher than
before the pandemic. In the near future, it's uncertain, and there are risks. In the medium term, it
looks like countries might keep spending more than they used to, which could be a problem for
poorer and developing nations.

It's important for governments to be careful with their money and create plans for the future.
Countries need to work together to deal with debt issues, improve the global financial system,
and switch to cleaner energy sources to fight climate change and make sure we have enough
energy.
Cryptocurrency Trends 2023:

In September, the cryptocurrency market experienced a period of relative stability, which is

historically uncommon for Bitcoin (BTC). Major cryptocurrencies saw modest declines,
influenced by hints from the Federal Reserve about potential interest rate hikes and prolonged
higher interest rates. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) further postponed
decisions on Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), despite congressional pressure for
their approval. In October, crypto investors are eager for updates on Bitcoin spot ETFs,
regulatory developments in the crypto sphere, and potential concerns surrounding Binance, the
world's largest crypto exchange.

During September, Bitcoin's price remained within a range of $25,000 to $27,000, closing the
month at $27,155, marking a 5.1% monthly increase. Ethereum (ETH) also experienced a 3.0%
rise, concluding the month at $1,684. Notably, Solana (SOL) outperformed other major
cryptocurrencies with an 18.9% gain, while Dogecoin (DOGE) struggled, recording a 1.5% loss.
Despite the lackluster September, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have displayed resilience in 2023,
with Bitcoin up 63.3% year-to-date and Ethereum up 40.2%, following their worst annual
performances in 2018 last year.

Labour Market Trends 2023

Job markets in countries like the US are getting really busy, but people are still finding work, so
unemployment isn't getting worse. This is happening because people are spending money on
services, and prices are not going up too fast. However, some parts of the economy like
housing and manufacturing are not doing so well because interest rates are rising. There are
some challenges too, like China's economy not growing as fast as we hoped, prices going up,
and worries about politics in different places. These challenges are making it a bit harder for
businesses and people to feel confident.

In terms of prices, they are not going up as quickly everywhere. It's not because of the war in
Ukraine anymore. Now, it's because companies are paying workers more, and people want
more services.

When it comes to hiring new people, in August 2023, in most countries, it slowed down
compared to the same time the year before. Ireland and Singapore had the biggest drop in
hiring, while the United Arab Emirates had a smaller drop. This shows that the job situation is
still a bit tricky around the world.
Health Economy 2023

The World Bank is giving Bangladesh $200 million to improve healthcare services in cities. They
will create a network of health centers in Dhaka, Chattogram, and other areas. These centers
will offer health checkups and services for around 2.5 million kids and better care for pregnant
women, with over 250,000 women getting checkups. They will also check for high blood
pressure in about 1.3 million adults. To help poor people, they'll fix up existing clinics and health
facilities.

They'll focus on things that keep us healthy and safe, like getting rid of disease-carrying
mosquitoes, handling medical waste, and teaching people to live healthier. They'll also prepare
for disease outbreaks and set up a warning system for diseases like dengue.

In simple terms, this money will help cities in Bangladesh provide better healthcare, especially
for kids and pregnant women. They'll also work on preventing diseases and keeping the
environment clean and safe. This project aims to improve the health of the people living in these
areas and make it easier for them to get medical help when they need it.

Monetary Policy 2023

Bangladesh is going through some tough times because of problems around the world, like a
war in Ukraine, COVID-19 issues in Asia, and other economic troubles. These global issues are
affecting Bangladesh's economy. People in Bangladesh are also facing high prices, not enough
money in the system, and trouble with the exchange rate because of these global problems. To
deal with these challenges, Bangladesh's central bank is taking action. They are increasing the
interest rates a bit, which can help control prices. They are also making sure there's enough
money in the system to support businesses and jobs. They are telling people to be careful about
buying unnecessary things from other countries to save money. At the same time, they are
trying to help businesses that make things in Bangladesh and encourage people to send money
from abroad. The central bank is also working on changing how they manage the exchange
rate, which affects how much Bangladeshi money is worth compared to other currencies.

In the short term, things seem okay, but it depends on what happens in other parts of the world,
like the war in Ukraine, changes in U.S. interest rates, and the COVID-19 situation in China. If
things get worse outside Bangladesh, it could affect Bangladesh too.

In simple terms, Bangladesh is having a hard time because of problems in the world, and the
government is trying to help by adjusting interest rates, managing money better, and
encouraging local businesses while being cautious about spending money on foreign items. The
future looks stable for now, but it depends on what happens in other countries.

Economic Impact of Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused major economic problems worldwide. This includes a big
global recession, a drop in business for services like restaurants and tourism, and a stock
market crash in 2020. It also led to issues with supply chains, higher prices for things, and
shortages of items like computer chips. People started buying things in a panic, and some
raised prices a lot. Governments gave a lot of money to help their economies. The pandemic
also caused problems with energy and food. The pandemic made it hard for people to travel and
affected events like sports and tech shows. The travel and trade industries lost a lot of money,
and it's still not clear how much.

Now, the world economy is uncertain. Experts don't agree on how bad things will get or when
they'll get better. Prices went up in general, partly because more people needed energy as
economies started to recover. Global business went down by 7% in 2020, and some trade
problems from the pandemic are still causing issues.

During the first COVID wave, businesses lost 25% of their income and 11% of their workers.
Small businesses and those in industries where people meet a lot were hit the hardest. But
government help kept many businesses from closing for good. Only 4% went out of business
during that time.

Cybersecurity and Economy 2023

Cybersecurity is the practice of protecting computers, networks, and data from malicious
attacks. It's like putting locks on your doors to keep out intruders in the digital world. Bangladesh
Bank takes cybersecurity seriously by organizing training programs and creating a dedicated
Cyber Security Unit (CSU) headed by an expert. They are working on getting important
certifications like PCI DSS and ISO 27001, which are like quality seals for security.
They're also setting up a Security Operation Center (SOC), which is like a control center for
keeping an eye on potential threats. They'll use tools like Security Information and Event
Management (SIEM) and Anti Advanced Persistent Threat (Anti-APT) to detect and respond to
suspicious activities. Additionally, they'll use Privileged Access Management (PAM) to control
who can access sensitive information. They regularly test their systems with Vulnerability
Assessment & Penetration Testing (VAPT) to find and fix weak points.

In simple terms, Bangladesh Bank is working hard to make sure their digital systems are safe
and secure, just like how you'd lock your home and install security cameras to protect your
valuables. They're getting certified, setting up a control center, and using tools to detect and
prevent cyber threats.

Economic Impacts of the Aging Population

A rapidly aging population, where there are more elderly people and fewer working-age
individuals, creates several economic challenges. The first problem is a shortage of qualified
workers to fill essential job positions. This results in businesses struggling to find the right
people for key roles, which can lead to decreased productivity, increased labor costs, delayed
business growth, and reduced competitiveness on the global stage. Sometimes, this shortage
causes wages to rise, resulting in wage inflation and a cycle of increasing prices and wages. To
address this issue, many countries turn to immigration to replenish their labor force. However,
integrating highly skilled immigrants into the workforce can be tough, as employers may not
always recognize their qualifications and work experience, especially if they're from different
parts of the world. The aging population also leads to higher healthcare costs, as older
individuals require more medical attention. This puts pressure on healthcare systems and
increases spending, making it crucial to ensure that the additional funding results in better
healthcare outcomes. Additionally, countries with many elderly citizens rely on a smaller number
of workers to finance healthcare, pensions, and other public programs. This places a strain on
tax revenue and spending commitments, particularly since retirees often have lower incomes.
This financial challenge is a major concern for advanced economies.

Lastly, an aging population changes the demands in the economy. There is a greater need for
healthcare services and retirement homes, which can be both an opportunity and a challenge. It
remains to be seen whether immigration can fill the gaps left by the aging workforce or if the
economy must adapt to this shift in demographics.

Reserve Crisis 2023

For over a year, a shortage of US dollars has been putting pressure on Bangladesh's economy,
and it's expected to continue into the new financial year starting on July 1. Economists have
reviewed the recent measures introduced by the Bangladesh Bank in its new monetary policy
and concluded that they are insufficient to alleviate the dollar shortage.

One of the key issues is the absence of a clear timeframe for removing restrictions on exchange
rates for export earnings and remittances. The country's foreign exchange reserves have
dropped by $18 billion in the past 23 months, making the situation even more challenging.

The Bangladesh Bank initially planned to implement market-based exchange rates for exports
and remittances in September but did not specify when these restrictions would be lifted.
Economists, including former World Bank Dhaka office chief economist Zahid Hussain, argue
that these measures don't address the core problem.

The Bangladesh Bank claimed to have mitigated the dollar shortage by monitoring import
payments and addressing under-invoicing and informal money transfer methods. However, the
situation remains precarious, with foreign exchange reserves hovering around $29 billion. The
recent devaluation of the local currency against the US dollar by around 25% in a year has
contributed to the country's economic challenges.

Furthermore, factors such as high inflation, negative credit ratings by agencies like Moody's,
declining foreign direct investment (FDI), and slower export and remittance growth have
worsened the balance of payments. In short, the scarcity of US dollars in Bangladesh is a
persistent issue, with various economic factors contributing to the ongoing challenge.

Impact of Ukraine War in Trade

The war's price shocks have made around 3 million people in Bangladesh poor, with rural areas
hit hardest. About 2.44 million people in the countryside fell into poverty due to higher prices for
things like fuel, fertilizers, and food. When you count the cities, nearly 3 million people in total
are now struggling with poverty, with 553,000 of them living in urban areas.

These price increases happened because of the war causing global prices for things to go up.
This had a big impact on the country, making life worse for everyone by around 2% because
people spent less and didn't invest as much.

Farming got hit the hardest because it's connected to the other affected areas. The government
tried to help by giving discounts on fuel, which made people spend more money but also led to
less investment.

Fertilizer discounts helped farmers the most, and giving money directly to people (cash
transfers) worked best to help poor folks. Cash transfers helped about 2.45 million vulnerable
people stay out of poverty because they could deal with the higher prices for things like fuel,
fertilizers, and food.