Class: 8

Global Catastrophic risks

&
Unexpected Climate Changes
25th September 2022
 Tipping points in climate system
Climate change may be triggering events that would dramatically
alter Earth as we know it.
A tipping point in the climate system is a threshold that, when
exceeded, can lead to large changes in the state of the system such
as mass extinction of species, dramatic sea level rise, extensive
droughts and the transformation of forests into vast grasslands

Possible tipping
elements in the
climate system.
The top six climate events scientists worry about today
1. The Arctic sea ice melts
The melting of the Arctic summer ice is considered to be the single
greatest threat, and some scientists think we’ve already passed the
tipping point. As sea ice melts and the Arctic warms, dark ocean
water is exposed that absorbs more sunlight, thus reinforcing the
warming
2. Greenland becomes ice-free
The warming of the Arctic may also render Greenland largely
ice-free. While Greenland’s ice loss will likely reach the point of
no return within this century, the full transition will take at least
a few hundred years.
The impacts of the Greenland ice melt is expected to raise sea
levels by up to 20 feet.
Half of the 10 largest cities in the world, including New York
City, and one-third of the world’s 30 largest cities are already
threatened by this sea level rise. .
 3. The West Antarctic ice sheet disintegrates
Scientists expect the West Antarctic ice sheet to “tip” this
century, and there is evidence that it already began happening
in 2014.
However, the entire collapse of the glacier, which would raise
sea level by 16 feet, could take a few hundred years.

4. El Niño becomes a more permanent climate fixture

The oceans absorb about 90 % of the
extra heat that is being trapped in the
Earth system by greenhouse gases.
This could affect the ocean dynamics
that control El Niño events.
That would cause extensive drought
conditions in Southeast Asia
 5. The Amazon rain forest dies back
Rainfall in the Amazon is threatened by deforestation, a longer dry season,
and rising summer temperatures.
Half of the Amazon rainforest could turn into savannah and grassland,
which - once triggered - could happen over just a few decades. Lead to a
considerable loss in biodiversity
However, the reduction of the Amazon ultimately depends on what
happens with El Niño, along with future land-use changes from human
activities.

6. Boreal forests are cut in half

Increased water and heat stress are taking a toll on the large forests in
Canada, Russia and other parts of the uppermost Northern Hemisphere.
So are forest disease and fires.
This could lead to a 50% reduction of the boreal forests, would gradually
transition into open woodlands or grasslands over several decades.
This would have a huge impact on the world’s carbon balance because
forests can absorb much more carbon than grasslands..
 Global catastrophic risk
A hypothetical future event which could
damage human well-being on a global scale
An event that could cause human extinction
Existential risk
suggested a 19% chance of human
extinction by the year 2100
Artist's impression of a major asteroid
Anthropogenic impact
Artificial intelligence
Biotechnology Non-anthropogenic
Cyber attack Asteroid impact
Environmental disaster Cosmic threats
Experimental technology accident Extraterrestrial invasion
Global warming Global pandemic
Mineral resource exhaustion Natural climate change
Nanotechnology Volcanism
World population and agricultural crisis
Warfare and mass destruction
 Black swan Theory
Describe the impact of events that come as a surprise in societal
aspects (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)
Combination of mathematical and philosophical reasoning to
explain and describe the randomness of uncertainty
History!!!
The theory has three properties:
1) Rarity: The event is a surprise
2) Extreme impact: The event has major impact
3) Retrospective predictability : Looking back, the event could
have been expected to take place
Examples black swan events : the rise of the Internet, the personal
computer, World War I, the dissolution of the Soviet Union and
the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.
Solution: our time would be better spent preparing for the impact of
negative black swans that occur, rather than attempting to
predict the unpredictable
 Gray goo
Term was first used by molecular nanotechnology pioneer Eric
Drexler.
Drexler envisioned a future in which tiny machines called
assemblers could build materials molecule-by-molecule.
Gray goo refers to a hypothetical end-of-the-world scenario
involving molecular nanotechnology in which out-of-control self-
replicating robots consume all biomass on Earth while building
more of themselves
For this scenario to come true, the
nanomachines would have to be
able to survive in a variety of harsh
environments.
They'd also need the ability to
consume any and all organic
matter.
And we'd have to be defenseless
against the nanomachines.
 The Doomsday Clock
A symbol which represents the likelihood of a man-made global catastrophe.
Maintained since 1947 by the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic
Scientists.
The Clock is a metaphor for threats to humanity from unchecked scientific
and technical advances. The Clock represents the hypothetical global
catastrophe as "midnight" and the Bulletin's opinion on how close the world
is to a global catastrophe as a number of "minutes" to midnight

.
The factors influencing the Clock are nuclear risk and climate change.
The Clock's original setting in 1947 was seven minutes to midnight.
It has been set backward and forward more than 23 times since then, the
smallest-ever number of minutes to midnight being 100 sec (in 1953 and
2022) and the largest seventeen (in 1991).
 Global Terrestrial Stilling
GTS is the decrease of wind speed near the Earth's surface (~10-meter
height) over the last three decades, originally termed "stilling".
Mainly affected mid-latitude regions of both hemispheres, with a global
average reduction of −0.140 m s−1 dec−1 and with high-latitude (> 75°
from the equator) showing increases in both hemispheres.
In contrast to the observed weakening of winds over continental surfaces,
winds have tended to strengthen over ocean regions.
In the last few years, a break in this terrestrial decrease of wind speed has
been detected suggesting a recovery at global scales since 2013.
The exact cause(s) of the global terrestrial stilling are uncertain and has
been mainly attributed to two major drivers: (i) changes in large
scale atmospheric circulation, and (ii) an increase of surface roughness due
to e.g. forest growth, land use changes, and urbanization.
Given climate change, changes in wind speed are currently a potential
concern for society, due to their impacts on a wide array of spheres, such
as wind power generation, ecohydrological implications
for agriculture and hydrology,
 Hypercane
A hypothetical class of extreme tropical cyclone that could form if
ocean temperatures reached approximately 50 °C

Such an increase could be caused by a large asteroid or comet

impact, a large supervolcanic eruption, or extensive global
warming.

Difference between a hypercane and present-day hurricanes is that a

hypercane would extend into the upper stratosphere, whereas
present-day hurricanes extend into only the lower stratosphere.

Such an intense storm would also damage the Earth's ozone layer,
potentially having devastating consequences for life on Earth

Water molecules in the stratosphere would react with ozone to

accelerate decay into O2 and reduce absorption of ultraviolet light.
 Unexpected Climate Changes
1. Volcanic eruptions will become more
frequent
Since the glaciers begin to melt, the amount of water in the
oceans increases and the global sea level rises, the weight
distribution of the earth’s crust is displaced from land to sea.

This shift may result in the fact that volcanoes will erupt
become more frequently. This conclusion is confirmed by the
recently discovered rock deposits, showing that in some periods
of the history of the Earth frequent volcanic eruptions
coincided with periods of glacier melting. People of the 21st
century, probably, will not perceive these changes, as the effect
would be noticeable in about 2500 years from now.
 2. Oceans will darken
Climate change will lead to an increase in rainfall in some
regions of the globe, making the rivers more affluent. Big rivers
will carry the flow of silt and debris, which eventually will get
into the ocean. Thus, the ocean will become less transparent.

In the coastal regions of Norway’s sea the water has already

become darker due to increased rainfall and heavy snowmelt in
the last decade. Some researchers believe that the turbidity in the
water is the cause of the changes in some ecosystems, for
example, in recent years the population of jellyfish has increased.
3. Sunlight will reach the seabed at the North Pole
As the sea ice melt, water in the shallow coastal areas near both
poles will become noticeably lighter, in particular, the light can reach
the seabed at the North Pole. Deep-water worms, sponges and other
invertebrates that are accustomed to living in complete darkness will
have to live and suffer the effects of sunlight.

Recent studies have shown that climate changes can significantly

alter the way of life of these colonies: in particular, algae and other
marine plants will penetrate in the depth, which will reduce the
population of invertebrates. This has already been observed in the
bays of the Atlantic and the Antarctic coasts, so that biodiversity in
the Polar Regions may be significantly reduced.
 4. The invasion of ants will slow down

Pheidole megacephala, also known as big-headed ants are one of

the most dangerous invasive species on Earth. There are colonies of
these insects in South America, Australia and Africa, which multiply
rapidly and spread to new areas. As an invasive species, ants enter
the habitat and capture food resources of other animals. As far as it
is known, the ants prey even on chicks of small birds.

But since the Earth’s temperature is increasing, these cold-blooded

animals will spread more slowly and their natural habitat will be
significantly reduced. Studies show that the percentage of territories
occupied by these species will decrease by 2080 by about one fifth.
 5. Decline of desert bacteria

The soil in the desert may seem uninhabitable, but in fact it is teeming
with bacteria: bacterial colonies spread all over the place there so that
they form a solid layer that protects the soil from erosion.

Studies of this soil in the United States has shown that different types
of desert bacteria live and thrive under different temperature
circumstances. Some prefer the exhausting heat of Arizona and New
Mexico, and the other live in cool climate of Oregon and Utah. As
the temperature due to climate change has become more volatile, the
desert bacteria have to adapt to it, and desert soil will become more
susceptible to erosion as a result of their decline.
 6. Disappearing Beaches

As the sea level rises, it makes sense that beaches are the
first to go. Already, 70 to 90 percent of beaches are being
wiped away by this rising waters, exacerbated by major
storms.

Many governments trying to preserve their beaches have

been importing fresh sand or dredging it up from the sea
floor. While this is already a temporary solution (the sand
just washes away again), it’s about to get more difficult.
There’s currently a sand shortage, thanks to demand from
the glass and cement industries.
 7. Faster-Growing Trees

Over the past 50 years, trees in Europe have been growing faster.
Researchers from the Technische Universitaet Muenchen in
Germany found that in some cases, tree growth has increased by as
much as 70 percent.

While there are multiple hypotheses to explain this phenomenon,

researchers think higher levels of carbon dioxide and nitrogen in the
atmosphere may contribute to tree growth. Those higher levels are
thanks to climate change. “It's also a bit warmer than it was (up to 1
degree Celsius on average), and this means the period of growth is
extended in spring and autumn,” says John Grace, from the
University of Edinburgh.
At least bigger trees absorb more carbon dioxide
 8. More Lightning

Lightning strikes will increase thanks to global

warming, according to researchers from University of
California, Berkeley.

Lightning occurs when electrical charges build up within

the water vapor of a cloud. Warmer temperatures mean
there will be more water vapor trapped in the
atmosphere, leading to more lightning.

Scientists expect lightning strikes to increase by about 12

percent for every degree Celsius gained.
 9. Deteriorating Mummies

The world’s oldest man-made mummies aren’t Egyptian—they’re

Chinchorro, a fishing people that lived along the coast of present-day
Chile and Peru. For upwards of 7,000 years these mummies—
prepared via de-fleshing the bodies and stuffing them with plant
fibers—remained well-preserved in the bone-dry Atacama Desert,
but that’s coming to an end.

In the last decade, the mummies have begun to rapidly deteriorate,

with some even turning into black ooze. Rising humidity levels,
possibly caused by climate change, may be to blame—the humid air
facilitates the growth of mummy-chomping bacteria.
Climate change may put other historical artifacts under siege too,
from outdoor marble statues to the ancient frozen tombs of Siberia.
 10. Hot (Human) Tempers

Could rising temperatures also bring rising tempers? Recent research

suggests they might. According to the analysis of 56 research papers
on the subject, increased temperatures and fluctuating precipitation
patterns are likely to cause an increase in both individual clashes, like
fistfights, and larger brawls, like wars.

"Heat changes the way people feel and think, increasing anger and
making thoughts of aggression increase," Richard Larrick, who
studied the effects of heat on aggressive acts by baseball players, told
the Washington Post.
Cricket and Climate change
cricket authorities to introduce "heat rules" including postponing
games in response to climate change

calls for extra care around youth players and for manufacturers to
develop equipment that enhances air flow, as extreme heat becomes
more common

It notes youth matches in Australia have been disrupted due to heat,

while dire water shortages have hit a tour of South Africa and
flooding has delayed cricket in England.

authors say they have combined climate science with heat physiology
to show how batsmen and wicketkeepers are becoming increasingly
susceptible to poorer performances due to the conditions.
They argue "safety-related heat stress guidelines" are now needed, and
that more games may need to be postponed or rearranged to cooler times
of the day

"Above 35 degrees (Celsius) the body runs out of options to cool itself,"

"For batsman and wicketkeepers even sweating has limited impact as the
heavy protective cladding creates a highly humid microclimate next to
their bodies.“

In fact the ICC Men’s Cricket World Cup (2019) was officially the
wettest tournament of all time. It was the first real exhibition of the
effects of climate change on cricket’s ecosystem (and economy).

In 2016, 13 IPL matches in Maharashtra were relocated due to the severe

drought.

Then in 2017, Sri Lankan cricketers wore face masks to protect

themselves from Delhi smog.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpyiyEazodM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2o2AapO6rK8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0XDHMgqlcEU
https://www.skymetweather.com/content/climate-
change/cclimate-change-and-its-impact-on-sports/