COWIN FINANCIAL LITERACY PROGRAM

TEACHERS COLLEGE COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY

Generously supported by TC Trustee Joyce B. Cowin

Q uick Start Guide

Case Study: Jill and Jack
Topic: financial planning

Many consider them [multilevel marketing

companies such as Mary Kay, Amway,
Herbalife, NuWay] to be little more than a
legal version of a pyramid scheme, yet the
economically desperate ignore warnings . . .
begging them to stay away.
–Helaine Olen1

While it is easy to point to the Apples, the

Googles and other recent upstarts that have
grown into large successful companies, the vast
majority of new businesses fail within
their first decade of existence.
–Kai Ryssdal, Marketplace.org, July 22, 2013

by Jerry King

1
http://www.forbes.com/sites/helaineolen/2012/07/20/mary-kay-preys-on-women/

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Quick Start Guide to Jill and Jack

Introduction
This case is set in 2009, a year after the country
slipped into recession and unemployment num-
bers climbed quickly—particularly in some sectors.
As new housing starts dried up, the construction
industry was among the hardest hit. By the end of
2010, unemployment in the construction industry
had reached over 27% and, with up to 18 months
without work and no end in sight, workers began
leaving the field altogether.2 For families caught in
this crisis, the usual tactic of belt tightening during
the search for a new job did not work. Prior to 2007, the average number of weeks a
person might be unemployed was 20 weeks. By 2009, it had climbed to 40 weeks. By
2010, 1 in 6 Americans were on food stamps.

Dilemma
Are there times when a family’s economic crisis is so severe that JIll has no
marketable
it justifies going after a business opportunity with a chance for skills

success that is less than 1 in 3?

Playing the role of an advisor at a community-based, nonprofit $200.000

salary lifestyle
financial advisory, students meet Jill and Jack, a couple
facing a truly dismal economic future. Because Jack Jack makes
great salsa
is in construction and his wife has a narrow range
of professional skills, the case stipulates the advisor Jack has
can imagine that, given the odds, 12 months from
lost his job!
now this couple will be living on food stamps and
worrying more about keeping their utilities turned on
than about how to pay their kids’ college tuition. After
months of taking all of the recommended steps (applying for jobs remotely related to
the work they had been doing; networking with family, friends, and colleagues; updat-
ing their profile on LinkedIn and posting their situation on their Facebook page), like
a growing segment of middle-class clients they are very seriously considering a more
entrepreneurial approach. Jill is about to sign on to sell Mary Kay cosmetics, and Jack
is canvassing friends and family for an investment in a home-based business selling
his own salsa, a concoction for which he is famous among family and friends.

2
http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2011/08/the_construction_workers_have_left_the_building.html

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 Quick Start Guide to Jill and Jack

The advisor sees one future, but Jill and Jack, who have never experienced long-term
unemployment, feel strongly that they can figure this out. Jack was an all-state quar-
terback when he was in high school and he knows he never would have achieved that
level of success by throwing safe passes.

What Students Will Learn

Students will learn to solve a problem for which the best solution will be based on
evaluating the relative risk of different decisions.

Problem-Solving Skills
●● To conceptualize and engage with a hypothetical case study as a true problem, not
one that fits neatly into, and illustrates, a preordained solution

●● To incorporate and critique multiple sources of information, including technical

and financial information, to solve a problem

●● To factor in risk when deciding how to solve a problem

●● To adapt to a problem for which there is no solution that accomplishes what they
thought were their most important goals

Related Financial Literacy Concepts

Entrepreneurship: Broadly speaking, entrepreneurship refers to having an
idea, as well as the capital and willingness to take a risk needed to execute the idea.
Entrepreneurs often start business ventures that could be tremendously profitable,
but many are not ultimately successful.

Investment: In personal finance, investment refers to sacrificing spending today

by putting money into particular financial instruments with the expectation of future
gains. We generally assume there is a trade-off between risk and reward, whereby
riskier investments may offer larger potential gain, but also have the potential for
losses. Investments can include not just traditional financial instruments like stocks
and bonds, but also more self-directed (and generally riskier) ventures like starting a
business or buying real estate.

Long-term financial planning: Planning for the long-term requires setting goals,
“paying yourself first” to help achieve those goals, and patience. Catastrophic financial
situations can sometimes interfere with plans; having a good plan from the outset can
help cushion the losses by providing a greater safety net, but also will require hard
choices and adjustments to the plan.

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Quick Start Guide to Jill and Jack

Unemployment: In technical terms, unemployment refers to being out of work

while actively seeking a job. Although unemployment can result in a better job match,
it is generally very painful and challenging in the short term. Especially during
times of economic recession, spells of unemployment can last a long time and take a
significant financial and economic toll.

In the Classroom . . .

1    homework
Assign the case study for homework with the introduction that they will be reading
about a married couple facing a serious financial crisis and a set of critical decisions.
Tell students that in order to be completely familiar with the facts of the case they
should read it twice: once to get an overview of the case, the narrative, and the second
time to take notes on what they consider the most relevant facts and questions.

2   as a whole class

Show students a sample dilemma map on a different topic from “Using the Quick Start
Guides.” Explain mapping to the students and tell them it will be a tool they use to work
on this difficult case. Ask students to review the facts of the case so that everyone has
a shared understanding of the key facts of the case.

The dilemma in this case is challenging because there are no near-term solutions
to the problem Jack and Jill are facing. Instead, they must decide among “less bad”
choices. To help students tackle the frustration of this case, consider dividing the class
into research teams charged with researching just one of the options the couple are
facing—a Mary Kay franchise, a home-based salsa business, or the ladder of decisions
people who have lost their jobs make in order to keep the elements of their lifestyle
they value most.

Before dividing into research groups, as a class students should complete a dilemma
map that captures the depth of the family’s dilemma.

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3   research activity

Each of the three groups should research their topic and fill in the portion of the orga-
nizer that relates to what they are learning.

The organizer should capture the almost certain risk of long-term unemployment
against the uncertain future of salsa and Mary Kay. (This would include the risk that
the projects could put them even deeper in the hole.)

Example of completed organizer:

Option Pros Cons

Coping with unemployment
Using all avenues to seek a new A new job is the best prospect Appears to have already tried
job [Jack] for stable income and benefits this and is discouraged; an all-out
such as retirement and health job search requires a large time
insurance. commitment that does not provide
any income.
Retraining for a job in a New skills can help find a job that Time consuming and expensive,
different sector [Jack] is more “recession-proof” and does not generate any income
potentially increase income. during training, risky (may not pay
off).
Tapping into savings and Need to cover daily living Lose the safety net of savings, and
retirement accounts to cover expenses, and could be less potentially high penalties and tax
expenses expensive than accumulating a lot implications for early withdrawal
of debt. from retirement accounts.
Borrowing additional money
Using home equity
Direct sales/multilevel marketing
Mary Kay sales [Jill] Relatively low start-up costs Very few reps make money; ties
compared to starting a full up both time and money in a
business. venture that could very well not be
profitable.
Starting your own business
Salsa business [Jack] Complete control over the Research shows that most
business; potential for profits small businesses fail; very risky
given popularity of the salsa. financially; no experience running
a food service business (e.g.,
with food safety, distribution,
marketing)–much more is involved
than just preparing the salsa;
need commerical-grade kitchen
equipment to safely prepare in the
quantities needed for sale.

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Quick Start Guide to Jill and Jack

4   closure

Bring the research groups together and, after each has reported on their findings, do
a cost/benefit analysis of each of the options (or some combination of the options)
available to them. Ask students to write down what they would advise Jill and Jack to
do, and why. Ask at least three volunteers to use their written answer to explain the
position they would take with Jill and Jack. Try to find at least one volunteer who came
to a different conclusion.

Complicating Factors
If the groups reach closure quickly, or draw conclusions that don’t reflect an under-
standing of the case as a true dilemma, introduce the following information and ask
students to discuss these facts before making their final recommendations. They
can do their own research or you can provide them with the information detailed
in the “Complicating Factors Expanded” section at the end of this guide.

ffEntrepreneurship has a low rate of success.

ffAnecdotally, a long shot sometimes pays off.

ffThe longer someone is unemployed, the less likely they are to find a job.

Extension
Vary the case study by changing the risk tolerance of Jill and Jack and/or by changing
the businesses they are considering.

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Classroom Materials

Completed Dilemma Map

●● Unemployment risk: 26 weeks

Construction ●● Jack is 47 years old
industry ●● Jack has been looking for 4 weeks, no interview
collapsed

JIll has no
marketable
skills

●● No significant severance
$200.000 ●● No healthcare insurance
salary lifestyle ●● Still owe $300,000 on house
that would sell for less than
$300,000

Jack has
lost his job!
Children ●● Two oldest are to attend
making 4-year private colleges
college plans

●● Father’s home fully paid for

Jack makes ●● Great natural salesman
great salsa ●● Friends already plan to buy
●● No access to a commercial kitchen
●● Most businesses fail in first 5 years

Jill invited to ●● Must buy stock with her own Mary Kay
a Mary Kay credit card
Party ●● Mary Kay vendors only make money
selling to each other

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Option Pros Cons
Coping with unemployment
Using all avenues to seek a
new job

Retraining for a job in a

different sector
Classroom Materials

Tapping into savings and

retirement accounts to cover
expenses
Quick Start Guide to Jill and Jack

Organizer

Direct sales/multilevel marketing

Mary Kay sales

Starting your own business

Salsa business

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Classroom Materials

An Opportunity. Be Your Own Boss!

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Quick Start Guide to Jill and Jack
Classroom Materials

How You Start a Small Business

by Jerry King

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U.S. Unemployment

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Classroom Materials

Complicating Factors Expanded

The following information is supplemental to the Complicating Factors on page 6 of

this guide.

1. Entrepreneurship is overrated: An article on seven overrated business opportunities

listed restaurants or catering and multilevel marketing as the first two. Their failure
rate is higher than the already high rate (50%) of small business failures.

2. Nothing left to lose: Story of FedEx: The founder of FedEx struggled very early on,
and at some point the company was down to $5,000, which was not enough to meet
basic payroll and operating expenses. It also had run down all possible sources of
investment and lines of credit. The founder, Fred Smith, took the last $5,000 to
Vegas and gambled it on blackjack, making $27,000 and meeting payroll, making
enough money to keep the company going until more revenue and credit were avail-
able. This seems ridiculously reckless and like a really bad example to follow (and
it is), but the founder’s rationale is worth considering—at that point, $5,000 was
effectively $0, so there is a point at which audacious risk becomes rational because
there is essentially nothing left to lose. The story is at http://www.huffingtonpost.
com/2012/10/15/fred-smith-blackjack-fedex_n_1966837.html, and might be a
challenging counterpoint to what conventional wisdom and the data seem to tell us
about taking chances.

3. At the beginning of the recession, 37% of the unemployed had been out of work for
over 27 weeks. Their job prospects became increasingly dim. According to calcula-
tions from the Council of Economic Advisers, a person who has been unemployed
for 5 weeks or less has a 31% chance of getting a job. Once they’ve been unemployed
between 27 and 52 weeks though, those odds drop to 12%. What happens once you’re
unemployed for more than a year? The odds drop to just 9%.

The odds of getting a job decline as time goes on.

About 4 million Americans are currently in the unfortunate situation of having

been unemployed for 27 weeks, and their odds of getting a job just keep
dropping.1

Note: See the accompanying bar graph on the following page of this guide.

1
http://economy.money.cnn.com/2014/01/08/long-term-unemployed/

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Classroom Materials

Bureau of Labor Statistics March 2013 Data

The odds of getting a job decline as time goes on . . .

31%

21%
16%
12%
9%

Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks 27-52 weeks 53+ weeks
SOURCE: COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS CALCULATIONS, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS MARCH ���� DATA

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