Probability 2
Probability 2
Probability 2
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• Empirical probability
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• Subjective probability
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• Let A = getting a King
• Let B = getting a Queen
There are 4 kings and there are 4 Queens. The events are clearly
mutually exclusive. Apply the formula.
P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) = 4/52 + 4/52 = 8/52 = 2/13
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Solution to part 2)
• Look at the diagram:
There are totally 52 cards in the pack out of which 4 are
kings and 13 are diamonds. Let the event A be getting a King
and the event B be getting a Diamond. The two events here
are not mutually exclusive because you can have a card,
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subjects.
• Solution:
Let A = getting A grade in Quantitative Methods
Let B =getting A grade in Marketing
It is given that A and B are independent.
P(A ∩ B) = P(A).P(B) = 0.7.0.5 = 0.35
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Multiplication Rule
• Events are not independent (conditional probability)
P(A ∩ B) = P(A).P(B/A)
• This rule says that the probability of the intersection of the events A
and B equals the product of the probability of A and the probability
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For simplicity, let us assume that the Hypothesis and the Evidence are two events.
Many modern machine learning techniques rely on Bayes' theorem. For instance, spam filters use
Bayesian updating to determine whether an email is real or spam, given the words in the email.
Additionally, many specific techniques in statistics, such as calculating p-values or interpreting
medical results, are best described in terms of how they contribute to updating hypotheses using
Bayes' theorem.
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Bayes’ Theorem
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• Where:
• Bi = ith event of K mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events.
• A = new event that might impact P(Bi)
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Bayes Theorem Discussion Problem
• A drilling company has estimated a 40% chance of striking oil for their new
well.
• A detailed test has been scheduled for more information. Historically, 60% of
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successful wells have had detailed tests, and 20% of unsuccessful wells have
had detailed tests.
• Given that this well has been scheduled for a detailed test, what is the
probability that the well will be successful?
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• How many, both drink and smoke? What is the associated probability?