Population and Environment Lecture Aguirre
Population and Environment Lecture Aguirre
Population and Environment Lecture Aguirre
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Associate Professor
Department of Economics
The Catholic University of America
Washington, DC 20064
I. Introduction
b. The production effect on private and public goods: Population growth affects
consumption indirectly through the effect on production per worker. With a fixed
capital, average production per worker will be lower with a larger labor force (the
classical argument of diminishing returns). Along the same lines, with a fixed level of
revenue, a larger population will increase the demand for public services, especially
education and health care, thus reducing the quality of these services and indirectly
hindering development through the reduction of funds allocated to infrastructure.
d. Dilution of Capital: With a fixed income, population growth reduces savings and
human capital (education per person) and therefore reduces physical and human
investment.
Nobel prize winner Gary Becker advanced a model that relates the concept of
human capital to the family and growth. In it, he proposes an alternative to
Malthusian models of economic growth. Becker introduces human capital as an
important source of economic development that depends on advances in
technological and scientific knowledge. A key assumption of this model is that the
rate of return on investments in human capital rises rather than declines as the stock
of human capital increases; man is creative and therefore the education of today
implies more production in the future. For this reason, resources are not necessarily
fixed and may increase as population increases.
In a 1993 paper Becker found that population growth, when studied in the
light of human capital theory, leads to multiple equilibrium points. He concluded that
this means that history and luck are critical determinants of a country’s growth
experience. Thus, population growth is not the only determining factor in economic
development as the Malthusian theory has predicted. Furthermore, he stated that
training and educational programs together with physical capital investment are the
important factors. He then concluded that developed countries with negative fertility
rates and undeveloped countries would benefit from an expansion of both the pool of
human capital and strengthening of the family as the principle promoter of education
and quality of life. But what about diminishing returns? Becker found the answer to
this issue in the increase of labor productivity due to education and consequently
rejects the Malthusian assumption of fixed resources. Such findings have been long
sustained by Julian Simon, Norman Macrae, Aaron Wildavsky, Ben Wattenberg, Karl
Zinsmeister, and others.
Aging Population
The causes of the present aging population are complex. Some sources
have been found in the living conditions and socio-cultural changes that countries
have faced in the past 30 years. Among these are:
· The mean age at which women first give birth has sharply increased.
· Labor codes do not facilitate women’s desire to harmoniously integrate their family
life and professional activity.
· A lack of true family policies does not allow families to have the number of children
that they would like.
· In developed countries, there is a widespread attitude that keeping a certain
quality of life is more important than having children. This poses a paradox that
Wattenberg describes in The Birth Dearth: “In the wealthier age of history many
youth say that they can not afford to have more than two children.”
Over the last thirty years, the UN and its agencies have invested, and continue to
invest, large financial resources in order to compel many countries to institute
Malthusian polices. In addition, it has encouraged compulsory population control
programs as a condition for international aid both through their own institution or
through other international organizations. As a consequence, local governments
have also adopted such Malthusian policies; non-governmental organizations have
actively fostered these policies. Thus, regulation of fertility includes compulsory
measures such as forced sterilization or sterilization performed without proper
informed consent, contraception, and abortion. Introduction of chemical
contraception techniques and frequent legalization of abortion have been widespread
while policies in favor of welcoming new lives have been weakened.
Implosion and the consequent aging in population bring with them serious
problems for both developed and even more so for less-developed and developing
countries. Some of these problems include:
· Within the active population there is a tension between the young and
the somewhat older people, as the latter try to protect their jobs while younger
generations enter into reduced job markets.
Lester Brown, the world’s leading modern Malthusian and president of the
Worldwatch Institute, an environmental group, has been arguing since 1973 that the
world is entering an era of food scarcity. He reckons that growing demand for grain
in China, in particular, could soon overwhelm the capacity of all world’s grain-
producing countries. Yet, in China, a variety of rice is being developed which will
produce 13 tons per acre in 130 days. Among many other examples is the
announcement of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research of
the finding of a new breed of drought-resistance corn that could boost crop yield by
30% in some developing countries. Also, the International Rice Research Institute
announced the development of a new breed that yields 25% more food per acre than
the best current variety and, in addition, requires the use of fewer fertilizers. It is
worthwhile to note that no country has population growth that outstrips food
production, even after food animal consumption is included. In fact, studies have
shown that the food industry is capable of producing enough food for a population
that has almost doubled the one forty years ago. A person in a developing country
consumes 30% more calories and 50% more animal products than the previous
generation, and this food production takes place in a cultivated area of less or equal
size than the one used by the previous generation (Fresco, 1998).
The cause of this success has been agricultural technology. Fifty percent of
this improvement has been attributed to biotechnology. In particular, the use of
genetic maps and markers has allowed scientist to breed existing plants species and
animals much more effectively. Other sources have been improvements of fertilizers,
irrigation systems, machinery and treatments of farm diseases. It is important to note
that the optimistic trends farm production crucially depend on a single variable:
investment on research and development (R&D). The trend in R&D spending,
however, is worrisome. Mann (1997) reports that public agricultural research funding
has been declining for years. A study by Julian Alston of the University of California
—Davis reports that private money funded 53% of all agricultural research in 1993.
Only 12% of this money went to direct crop improvement. This slowdown has
especially hit international R&D. The principal vehicle for international funding is the
Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), a group of 43
public and private sector donors that supports 17 centers. Since 1993, CGIAR’s
budget has remained about $315 million, but the budget per organization has fallen.
Instead, public and private money is being allocated to population control activities. It
is undeniable that in spite of all this progress, there still famine in the world and food
shortage. However, several scholars have suggested alternative reasons for these
problems, such as corruption (Nobel prize winner Amartya Sen), war, political
instability, monopolistic structures, lack of technology, etc., none of which are directly
related to population size.
We have mentioned thus far food resources, but what could we say about
nonrenewable resources? This has certainly been an important concern for the
population control promoters. Jeffrey Krautkraemer (1998) presented an insightful
and complete review of the empirical evidence currently available on nonrenewable
resources. The long-term availability of fossil fuels, particularly petroleum, was the
focus of concern about nonrenewable resource scarcity in the 1970s. In more recent
years, however, this concern has shifted to an emphasis on the environmental
impacts of nonrenewable resource consumption.
A common tool used in these studies has been Hottelling’s formal analysis of
nonrenewable resource depletion. This model provides some basic implications for
how the finite availability of nonrenewable resource affects their price and extraction
paths. The economic intuition behind these implications is as follows: A stock of
nonrenewable resources can be viewed as an asset that generates returns over
time. The opportunity cost of extracting and consuming is that there is less to extract
and consume in the future. A firm that seeks to maximize the present value of profit
takes this cost into account when deciding how much to extract. At the margin, the
value of extraction should equal the value of not extracting (which is the value of the
marginal opportunity cost of depletion or user cost.) Asset market equilibrium
requires the rate of return to hold the nonrenewable resource stock at equal the rate
of return to other assets. The basic form of this model assumes a known finite
quantity of homogeneous resource, and the extraction cost is independent of the
remaining stock. It follows that, in this case, the return to a nonrenewable resource
asset consists entirely of the appreciation of its in situ value and market equilibrium
requires that the in situ value increase at the rate of interest.
For the most part, the implications of the Hotteling model have not been
consistent with empirical studies of nonrenewable resource prices and in situ values.
There has not been a consistent increase over the last 125 years, but rather
fluctuations around time trends, whose direction can depend upon the time period
selected. This shows that finite availability is not the only factor that significantly
affects these types of resources. Elements such as extraction technology,
technological changes, the existence of non-homogeneous qualities of resources, the
fact that resource quantity is not known with certainty, as well as the frequent further
developments of existing deposits, are all important features in minerals industries.
In addition, since the cost of extractive capital increases with an increase in the rate
of interest, it is no longer necessary to assume that an increase in the rate of interest
implies more rapid depletion. Empirical evidence also indicates that the discovery of
new deposits and technological progress has significantly mitigated the impact of the
finite availability of the relative scarcity on nonrenewable resources used in
commodity production. In addition, the finite availability of nonrenewable resources
at a particular point in time has not yet led to increasing economic scarcity of
nonrenewable resources for production and consumption activities. The
development of new materials that substitute for nonrenewable resources,
improvements in extraction and processing technologies that allow for economical
use of low grade ores, and the greater efficiency in the use of nonrenewable
resources are all likely to continue. It remains to be seen whether population growth
and economic development have an effect. The evidence thus far does not provide
any indication of such problems.
The ecologists’ concern is not so much with the quantity of food but with
imbalance in the natural ecosystem. They find the main source of blame in industry,
automobiles, and agricultural developments. Rabkin (1997) summarizes their
concern by stating that “the theory behind global warming holds that emissions from
automobiles and industrial activity will reduce the rate at which heat from the sun is
reflected back into space from the earth’s surface. Acting like the glass panes in a
greenhouse roof, these accumulating 'greenhouse gases' will produce a gradual rise
in average global temperatures.” (Rabkin,1997)
Data obtained from satellites, for example, demonstrate that while the
troposphere—the layer of air extending from the earth’s surface to a height of seven
km—has shown a good deal of temperature variability over the past eight years,
there has been no net warming; if anything, there may have been a slight cooling of
the atmosphere. Furthermore, they clarified that this variability could be attributed
as much to natural occurrences, such as volcanic eruptions and solar flares, as to
man-made emissions. The fact is that the earth tends to fluctuate not only over
decades but over centuries. In addition, most temperature increases in the 20th
century took place in the years before World War II before industrial activity and bio-
genetic agriculture could have had any effect. A number of scientists maintain that
even the revised projections overestimate the danger and present an exaggerated
view of the possible effects on the climate. This reevaluation and more recent
results, have not been reported in the press, however, and therefore have had no
effect on public thought on the subject.
It is not surprising that the only specific allocation of funding within the
documents, which is included in chapter 13 in ICPD and chapter 4 of ICPD+5, is for
“programmes in the area of reproductive health (..) and the prevention of sexually
transmitted diseases.” The amount allocated for the next 20 years is $77.7 billion
dollars (pt. 13.15). The new document, ICPD+5, calls for an additional 25.83 billion
for “population programs alone” (pt. 95). The MacArthur Foundation, as well as the
Bill Gates, Rockefeller, Packard and the Ted Turner Foundations have already
pledged some of this funding.
What about the Women's Caucus ideology? In step with the Planned
Parenthood agenda, they equated the empowerment of women with infertility. They
demanded the recognition of unbridled individual rights, and suggested “Changes in
the patterns of human reproduction,” a phrase which was included in ICPD and
ICPD+5. This phrase implies, however, that the human reproductive system has
changed. Is this an accurate statement? In the light of the women’s caucus agenda,
it is not surprising that some terminology is absent in the final Programme of Action.
These terms include “abstinence,” “adoption,” and “natural family planning.” These
terms all involve practices where women are in truly in control of their reproductive
systems and are freely exercising their right to decide the number and spacing of
their children or to abstain from them.
ICPD+5, quoting ICPD’94 states that “Adolescents must be fully involved in the
planning, implementation and evaluation of sexual education and reproductive health
services as appropriate.” Are children going to be planning and running sexual
education classes, school-based clinics, and family planning services? Where is the
"proper regard for parental guidance?" Furthermore, the document suggests the
need to use all means of communication to spread the goals of the document,
particularly to the youth (pt.4.43). Is culture changing or does it want to be
changed? Is this not manipulation? Certainly the Hague Forum has set these last
two issues at the center of economic development.
IV. CONCLUSION
The irony is that the main losers, I will argue, are women, men, the family and
therefore society as a whole. These policies coerce less developed countries to
make population control the overriding investment. Thus, women are involuntarily
reduced to vehicles for carrying out government policy. Women are provided with
services and benefits only to the extent that these services and benefits are related
to population control. A woman's autonomy over her own reproductive system is not
supported but violated.
If we can learn anything from studies such as those produced by UNFPA and
the Club of Rome (1972), it is that rigid and deterministic projections are not
trustworthy and that they result in policies that are harmful. They tend to predict a
crisis without taking into account the reality that technological advances bring. It is
time to acknowledge that the problem with development, poverty, and pollution is a
consequence of political and economic factors, not of population. These policies
have contributed problems of distorted prices, mistaken economic stability plans and
economic development plans that have benefited the development of cities at the
cost of agricultural areas, protectionism, large foreign debts, wars, etc. One thing is
clear: there is no empirical evidence that population control policies would solve any
of the above problems; rather, evidence suggests the contrary. This is witnessed to
by the aging population trap, which is already causing serious public financial
problems and may jeopardize the future development of less developed countries.
I. Pendahuluan
"Pembangunan berkelanjutan" adalah suatu pendekatan kebijakan yang telah
memperoleh cukup banyak popularitas dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, khususnya
di kalangan internasional. PBB dan organisasi-organisasi lain seperti Bretton
Woods telah mengambil peran aktif dalam mendefinisikan "pembangunan
berkelanjutan." Dengan melampirkan interpretasi tertentu, mereka telah membuat
mengendalikan populasi pendekatan pembangunan override. Ilustrasi pembuatan
kebijakan seperti itu adalah Lima Tahun terbaru Review dan Kajian Pelaksanaan
Program Aksi ICPD (ICPD +5). Seperti akan kita lihat, seperti kebijakan
kependudukan telah menjadi alat utama yang digunakan untuk 'mempromosikan'
pembangunan ekonomi di negara-negara berkembang dan untuk melindungi
lingkungan. Namun, kebijakan ini telah gagal untuk mencapai tujuan baik.
Dalam rangka untuk memperoleh analisis yang jelas situasi, perlu untuk
membahas teori-teori yang di atasnya kebijakan pengendalian penduduk
beristirahat. Ilmu ekonomi dan lingkungan sering digunakan sebagai mendukung
kebijakan-kebijakan seperti itu dalam upaya untuk membangun hubungan antara
penduduk, lingkungan, dan pembangunan ekonomi. Namun, sastra dari kedua
disiplin ilmu menyarankan kesimpulan berlawanan. Dengan demikian, sangat
penting untuk menegakkan kebijakan seperti cahaya, seolah-olah, penelitian
ilmiah. Untuk saat ini, penelitian dapat disimpulkan dukungan untuk menemukan
hubungan seperti; ini selain menunjukkan motif ekonomi atau yang ilmiah di balik
kebijakan pengendalian kependudukan.
IV.KESIMPULAN
Kebijakan pengendalian penduduk tidak menyediakan bagi pembangunan
berkelanjutan. 5 ICPD tidak mencakup aspek pertumbuhan ekonomi riil di masa
depan utama mereka tindakan. Penerima manfaat utama dari kebijakan ini jelas tidak
kurang berkembang maupun negara-negara berkembang. Pada saat yang sama,
kaukus perempuan agenda diajukan sebagai promotor kebijakan ini. The pemesanan
yang diberlakukan oleh banyak negara di dokumen PBB baru-baru ini diungkapkan
secara jelas agenda penolakan tersebut. Hambatan dari PBB G77 kebijakan
pendidikan seksual remaja dan hak-hak seksual daripada populasi dan
pembangunan ekonomi terus berlanjut.
Ironi adalah bahwa pecundang utama, aku akan berdebat, adalah perempuan, laki-
laki, karena itu keluarga dan masyarakat secara keseluruhan. Kebijakan ini
memaksa negara-negara berkembang untuk mengendalikan populasi override
investasi. Dengan demikian, perempuan tanpa sengaja dikurangi menjadi kendaraan
untuk melaksanakan kebijakan pemerintah. Perempuan diberi layanan dan manfaat
hanya sejauh bahwa layanan ini dan manfaat yang terkait dengan pengendalian
populasi. Seorang wanita otonomi atas sistem reproduksi sendiri tidak didukung,
tetapi dilanggar.
Jika kita dapat belajar sesuatu dari studi-studi seperti yang dihasilkan oleh UNFPA
dan Club of Rome (1972), adalah bahwa proyeksi deterministik kaku dan tidak dapat
dipercaya dan bahwa mereka menghasilkan kebijakan yang berbahaya. Mereka
cenderung untuk memprediksi krisis tanpa mempertimbangkan kenyataan bahwa
kemajuan teknologi membawa. Saatnya untuk mengakui bahwa masalah
pembangunan, kemiskinan, dan polusi adalah konsekuensi dari politik dan faktor-
faktor ekonomi, bukan penduduk. Kebijakan-kebijakan ini telah memberikan
sumbangan yang menyimpang masalah harga, stabilitas ekonomi salah rencana dan
rencana pembangunan ekonomi yang menguntungkan perkembangan kota-kota di
daerah-daerah pertanian biaya, proteksionisme, besar hutang luar negeri, perang, dll
Satu hal yang jelas: tidak ada empiris bukti bahwa kebijakan pengendalian populasi
akan memecahkan masalah di atas, melainkan bukti menunjukkan sebaliknya. Hal
ini disaksikan oleh para penduduk penuaan perangkap, yang telah menyebabkan
masalah keuangan publik yang serius dan dapat membahayakan pembangunan
masa depan negara-negara berkembang.
Bibliography
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Beckerman, Willfred, 1995. Small is Stupid: Blowing the Whistle on the Greens,
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___________, 1999. “Crop Scientists Seek a New Revolution”, Science, January 15,
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2. Simon (1996a,b) presents a recent review of the literature in this area. Other
articles that present a review of the literature include Ehrlich and Lui (1997), Temple
(1999), and Sen (1996).
3. Some of these matters have been dealt in Sen (1996), CLADEM (1998). The
summary of this report was also printed by the El Pais, Madrid, 12-20-98, and in
Price (1997).
6. For a recent summary of the current state of research, see Simon (1996) and
Fresco (1998). Also see the report of the FAO (1996), Gallagher & Carpenter (1997),
Mann (1997), Mann (1999), Daily, Dasgupta and Bolin (1998).
8. Some writings that cover these materials are in addition to Rabkin (1997), Kerr
(1997), ACSH (1997), Lamb (1982), Moore (1995), Gallagher and Carpenter (1997),
Kasun (1991), and Avery (1998).
. Of this 77.7 billion, family planning components represent 48.1 billion, reproductive
health components represent is $22.2 billion, $5.7 billion represent sexually
transmitted disease prevention (i.e., AIDS prevention through the distribution of
condoms), and $1.7 billion represent basic research programs in the previously
mentioned areas.
. UNFPA, Proposals for Key Actions for the Further Implementation of the
Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and
Development, pt. 6.13.
. These social services include: 63% for Reproductive Health and Population
(including disease control-i.e., AIDS), and family planning programs (which include
sexual education programs, reproductive health and population programs, and
contraceptive research). The 37% left is for basic education (primary education and
early childhood development services such as nursery schools and other settings for
early instruction), and "low cost water and sanitation technology"-i.e., hand pumps,
rain water collection, and latrines.