8 CHAPTER 1 PROBABILITY THEORY

FIGURE 1.13
S
Probability values for choosing two (A♥, 2♥) (A♥, 3♥) ··· (A♥, Q♠) (A♥, K♠)
cards without replacement 1/2652 1/2652 ··· 1/2652 1/2652

(2♥, A♥) (2♥, 3♥) ··· (2♥, Q♠) (2♥, K♠)

1/2652 1/2652 ··· 1/2652 1/2652

(3♥, A♥) (3♥, 2♥) ··· (3♥, Q♠) (3♥, K♠)

1/2652 1/2652 ··· 1/2652 1/2652

.. .. .. .. ..
. . . . .

(Q♠, A♥) (Q♠, 2♥) (Q♠, 3♥) ··· (Q♠, K♠)

1/2652 1/2652 1/2652 ··· 1/2652

(K♠, A♥) (K♠, 2♥) (K♠, 3♥) ··· (K♠, Q♠)

1/2652 1/2652 1/2652 ··· 1/2652

1.1.4 Problems

1.1.1 What is the sample space when a coin is tossed three (a) If the odds ratio is 1, what is p?
times? (b) If the odds ratio is 2, what is p?
(c) If p = 0.25, what is the odds ratio?
1.1.2 What is the sample space for counting the number of
females in a group of n people? 1.1.8 An experiment has five outcomes, I, II, III, IV, and V. If
P(I) = 0.13, P(II) = 0.24, P(III) = 0.07, and
1.1.3 What is the sample space for the number of aces in a hand
P(IV) = 0.38, what is P(V)?
of 13 playing cards?
1.1.9 An experiment has five outcomes, I, II, III, IV, and V. If
1.1.4 What is the sample space for a person’s birthday?
P(I) = 0.08, P(II) = 0.20, and P(III) = 0.33, what are
1.1.5 A car repair is performed either on time or late and either the possible values for the probability of outcome V? If
satisfactorily or unsatisfactorily. What is the sample space outcomes IV and V are equally likely, what are their
for a car repair? probability values?

1.1.6 A bag contains balls that are either red or blue and either 1.1.10 An experiment has three outcomes, I, II, and III. If
dull or shiny. What is the sample space when a ball is outcome I is twice as likely as outcome II, and outcome II
chosen from the bag? is three times as likely as outcome III, what are the
probability values of the three outcomes?
1.1.7 A probability value p is often reported as an odds ratio,
which is p/(1 − p). This is the ratio of the probability 1.1.11 A company’s advertising expenditure is either low with
that the event happens to the probability that the event probability 0.28, average with probability 0.55, or high
does not happen. with probability p. What is p?

1.2 Events

1.2.1 Events and Complements

Interest is often centered not so much on the individual elements of a sample space, but rather
on collections of individual outcomes. These collections of outcomes are called events.
8 CHAPTER 1 PROBABILITY THEORY

FIGURE 1.13
S
Probability values for choosing two (A♥, 2♥) (A♥, 3♥) ··· (A♥, Q♠) (A♥, K♠)
cards without replacement 1/2652 1/2652 ··· 1/2652 1/2652

(2♥, A♥) (2♥, 3♥) ··· (2♥, Q♠) (2♥, K♠)

1/2652 1/2652 ··· 1/2652 1/2652

(3♥, A♥) (3♥, 2♥) ··· (3♥, Q♠) (3♥, K♠)

1/2652 1/2652 ··· 1/2652 1/2652

.. .. .. .. ..
. . . . .

(Q♠, A♥) (Q♠, 2♥) (Q♠, 3♥) ··· (Q♠, K♠)

1/2652 1/2652 1/2652 ··· 1/2652

(K♠, A♥) (K♠, 2♥) (K♠, 3♥) ··· (K♠, Q♠)

1/2652 1/2652 1/2652 ··· 1/2652

1.1.4 Problems

1.1.1 What is the sample space when a coin is tossed three (a) If the odds ratio is 1, what is p?
times? (b) If the odds ratio is 2, what is p?
(c) If p = 0.25, what is the odds ratio?
1.1.2 What is the sample space for counting the number of
females in a group of n people? 1.1.8 An experiment has five outcomes, I, II, III, IV, and V. If
P(I) = 0.13, P(II) = 0.24, P(III) = 0.07, and
1.1.3 What is the sample space for the number of aces in a hand
P(IV) = 0.38, what is P(V)?
of 13 playing cards?
1.1.9 An experiment has five outcomes, I, II, III, IV, and V. If
1.1.4 What is the sample space for a person’s birthday?
P(I) = 0.08, P(II) = 0.20, and P(III) = 0.33, what are
1.1.5 A car repair is performed either on time or late and either the possible values for the probability of outcome V? If
satisfactorily or unsatisfactorily. What is the sample space outcomes IV and V are equally likely, what are their
for a car repair? probability values?

1.1.6 A bag contains balls that are either red or blue and either 1.1.10 An experiment has three outcomes, I, II, and III. If
dull or shiny. What is the sample space when a ball is outcome I is twice as likely as outcome II, and outcome II
chosen from the bag? is three times as likely as outcome III, what are the
probability values of the three outcomes?
1.1.7 A probability value p is often reported as an odds ratio,
which is p/(1 − p). This is the ratio of the probability 1.1.11 A company’s advertising expenditure is either low with
that the event happens to the probability that the event probability 0.28, average with probability 0.55, or high
does not happen. with probability p. What is p?

1.2 Events

1.2.1 Events and Complements

Interest is often centered not so much on the individual elements of a sample space, but rather
on collections of individual outcomes. These collections of outcomes are called events.
14 CHAPTER 1 PROBABILITY THEORY

1.2.3 Problems

1.2.1 Consider the sample space in Figure 1.22 with outcomes of 0.38 that both stocks will increase in price, and a
a, b, c, d, and e. Calculate: probability of 0.11 that both stocks will decrease in price.
(a) P(b) (b) P(A) (c) P(A ) Also, there is a probability of 0.16 that the stock from
Company A will decrease while the stock from Company
S B will increase. What is the probability that the stock from
a b
0.13 ?
Company A will increase while the stock from Company
B will decrease? What is the probability that at least
A
one company will have an increase in the stock price?
c
0.48 d 1.2.6 Two fair dice are thrown, one red and one blue. What is the
0.02
probability that the red die has a score that is strictly greater
than the score of the blue die? Why is this probability
less than 0.5? What is the complement of this event?
e
0.22 1.2.7 If a card is chosen at random from a pack of cards, what
is the probability that the card is from one of the two
FIGURE 1.22 black suits?
1.2.8 If a card is chosen at random from a pack of cards, what
1.2.2 Consider the sample space in Figure 1.23 with outcomes
is the probability that it is an ace?
a, b, c, d, e, and f . If P(A) = 0.27, calculate:
(a) P(b) (b) P(A ) (c) P(d) 1.2.9 A winner and a runner-up are decided in a tournament of
four players, one of whom is Terica. If all the outcomes
S are equally likely, what is the probability that
a
0.09
(a) Terica is the winner?
(b) Terica is either the winner or the runner-up?
c
b 0.11 1.2.10 Three types of batteries are being tested, type I, type II, and
? type III. The outcome (I, II, III) denotes that the battery of
d
? type I fails first, the battery of type II next, and the battery
A e
0.06 of type III lasts the longest. The probabilities of the six out-
comes are given in Figure 1.24. What is the probability that
f (a) the type I battery lasts longest?
0.29
(b) the type I battery lasts shortest?
(c) the type I battery does not last longest?
FIGURE 1.23
(d) the type I battery lasts longer than the type II battery?
(This problem is continued in Problem 1.4.9.)
1.2.3 If birthdays are equally likely to fall on any day, what is
the probability that a person chosen at random has a
S
birthday in January? What about February?
(I, II, III) (I, III, II)
1.2.4 When a company introduces initiatives to reduce its carbon 0.11 0.07

footprint, its costs will either increase, stay the same, or de-
(II, I, III) (II, III, I)
crease. Suppose that the probability that the costs increase
0.24 0.39
is 0.03, and the probability that the costs stay the same
is 0.18. What is the probability that costs will decrease? (III, I, II) (III, II, I)
What is the probability that costs will not increase? 0.16 0.03

1.2.5 An investor is monitoring stocks from Company A and

FIGURE 1.24
Company B, which each either increase or decrease each
day. On a given day, suppose that there is a probability Probability values for battery lifetimes
 1.3 COMBINATIONS OF EVENTS 15

(c) at least one assembly line is at full capacity?

S
(S, S) (S, P) (S, F) (d) exactly one assembly line is at full capacity?
0.02 0.06 0.05 What is the complement of the event in part (b)? What is
the complement of the event in part (c)?
(P, S) (P, P) (P, F) (This problem is continued in Problem 1.4.10.)
0.07 0.14 0.20
1.2.12 A fair coin is tossed three times. What is the probability
(F, S) (F, P) (F, F) that two heads will be obtained in succession?
0.06 0.21 0.19
1.2.13 A company’s revenue is considerably below expectation
FIGURE 1.25 with probability 0.08, is slightly below expectation with
probability 0.19, exactly meets expectation with
Probability values for assembly line operations
probability 0.26, is slightly above expectation with
probability 0.36, and is considerably above expectation
1.2.11 A factory has two assembly lines, each of which is shut with probability 0.11. What is the probability that the
down (S), at partial capacity (P), or at full capacity (F). company’s revenue is not below expectation?
The sample space is given in Figure 1.25, where, for
example, (S, P) denotes that the first assembly line is 1.2.14 An advertising campaign is canceled before launch with
shut down and the second one is operating at partial probability 0.10, is launched but canceled early with
capacity. What is the probability that probability 0.18, is launched and runs its targeted length
(a) both assembly lines are shut down? with probability 0.43, and is launched and is extended
(b) neither assembly line is shut down? beyond its targeted length with probability 0.29. What is
the probability that the advertising campaign is launched?

1.3 Combinations of Events

In general, more than one event will be of interest for a particular experiment and sample space.
For two events A and B, in addition to the consideration of the probability of event A occurring
and the probability of event B occurring, it is often important to consider other probabilities
such as the probability of both events occurring simultaneously. Other quantities of interest
may be the probability that neither event A nor event B occurs, the probability that at least
one of the two events occurs, or the probability that event A occurs, but event B does not.

1.3.1 Intersections of Events

Consider first the calculation of the probability that both events occur simultaneously. This can
be done by defining a new event to consist of the outcomes that are in both event A and event B.

Intersections of Events
The event A ∩ B is the intersection of the events A and B and consists of the
outcomes that are contained within both events A and B. The probability of this event,
P(A ∩ B), is the probability that both events A and B occur simultaneously.

Figure 1.26 shows a sample space S that consists of nine outcomes. Event A consists of
three outcomes, and its probability is given by
P(A) = 0.01 + 0.07 + 0.19 = 0.27
Event B consists of five outcomes, and its probability is given by
P(B) = 0.07 + 0.19 + 0.04 + 0.14 + 0.12 = 0.56
 1.3 COMBINATIONS OF EVENTS 31

FIGURE 1.54
S
Events A, B, and C
(P, P) (P, G) (P, S) (P, F)
0.140 0.102 0.157 0.007
C
(G, P) (G, G) (G, S) (G, F)
0.124 0.141 0.139 0.012

B
(S, P) (S, G) (S, S) (S, F)
0.067 0.056 0.013 0.010

(F, P) (F, G) (F, S) (F, F)

0.004 0.011 0.009 0.008

are not shipped (in event A), have a picture rating of Good or Perfect (in event B ), and are of
mediocre quality (in event C).
The company may be particularly interested in the event D, that an appliance is of “high
quality,” defined to be the complement of the union of the events A, B, and C:
D = (A ∪ B ∪ C)
Notice that this event can also be written as
D = A ∩ B ∩C
since it consists of the outcomes that are shipped (in event A ), have a picture rating of Good
or Perfect (in event B ), and are not of mediocre quality (in event C ). Specifically, the event D
consists of the outcomes
D = {(G, P), (P, P), (P, G), (P, S)}
and it has a probability of
P(D) = P((G, P)) + P((P, P)) + P((P, G)) + P((P, S))
= 0.124 + 0.140 + 0.102 + 0.157 = 0.523

1.3.5 Problems

1.3.1 Consider the sample space S = {0, 1, 2} and the event 1.3.4 Let A be the event that a person is female, let B be the
A = {0}. Explain why A = ∅. event that a person has black hair, and let C be the event
1.3.2 Consider the sample space and events in Figure 1.55. that a person has brown eyes. Describe the kinds of
Calculate the probabilities of the events: people in the following events:
(a) B (b) B ∩ C (a) A ∩ B (b) A ∪ C
(c) A ∪ C (d) A ∩ B ∩ C (c) A ∩ B ∩ C (d) A ∩ (B ∪ C)
(e) A ∪ B ∪ C (f) A ∩ B 1.3.5 A card is chosen from a pack of cards. Are the events that
(g) B ∪ C (h) A ∪ (B ∩ C) a card from one of the two red suits is chosen and that a
(i) (A ∪ B) ∩ C (j) (A ∪ C) card from one of the two black suits is chosen mutually
(This problem is continued in Problem 1.4.1.)
exclusive? What about the events that an ace is chosen
1.3.3 Use Venn diagrams to illustrate the equations: and that a heart is chosen?
(a) A ∪ (B ∩ C) = (A ∪ B) ∩ (A ∪ C)
1.3.6 If P(A) = 0.4 and P(A ∩ B) = 0.3, what are the
(b) A ∩ (B ∪ C) = (A ∩ B) ∪ (A ∩ C)
possible values for P(B)?
(c) (A ∩ B ∩ C) = A ∪ B ∪ C
32 CHAPTER 1 PROBABILITY THEORY

FIGURE 1.55
S

A
0.04 0.05
0.07
0.05

0.01 0.08
0.02
0.04
0.05
0.07
0.08 0.06 0.11 C
0.11
B 0.13

0.03

1.3.7 If P(A) = 0.5, P(A ∩ B) = 0.1, and P(A ∪ B) = 0.8, 1.3.12 A bag contains 200 balls that are either red or blue and
what is P(B)? either dull or shiny. There are 55 shiny red balls, 91 shiny
1.3.8 An evaluation of a small business by an accounting firm balls, and 79 red balls. If a ball is chosen at random,
either reveals a problem with the accounts or it doesn’t what is the probability that it is either a shiny ball or a
reveal a problem. Also, the evaluation is either done red ball? What is the probability that it is a dull blue ball?
accurately or incorrectly. The probability that the 1.3.13 In a study of patients arriving at a hospital emergency
evaluation is done accurately is 0.85. Furthermore, the room, the gender of the patients is considered, together
probability that the evaluation is done incorrectly and that with whether the patients are younger or older than
it reveals a problem is 0.10. If the probability that the 30 years of age, and whether or not the patients are
evaluation is done accurately and it does not reveal a admitted to the hospital. It is found that 45% of the
problem is 0.25, what is the probability that the patients are male, 30% of the patients are younger than
evaluation does not reveal a problem? 30 years of age, 15% of the patients are females older
A. 0.10 B. 0.20 C. 0.30 D. 0.40 than 30 years of age who are admitted to the hospital, and
21% of the patients are females younger than 30 years of
1.3.9 A card is drawn at random from a pack of cards. A is the
age. What proportion of the patients are females older
event that a heart is obtained, B is the event that a club is
than 30 years of age who are not admitted to the hospital?
obtained, and C is the event that a diamond is obtained.
Are these three events mutually exclusive? What is 1.3.14 Recall that a company’s revenue is considerably
P(A ∪ B ∪ C)? Explain why B ⊂ A . below expectation with probability 0.08, is slightly
1.3.10 A card is drawn from a pack of cards. A is the event that below expectation with probability 0.19, exactly meets
an ace is obtained, B is the event that a card from one of expectation with probability 0.26, is slightly above
the two red suits is obtained, and C is the event that a expectation with probability 0.36, and is considerably
picture card is obtained. What cards do the following above expectation with probability 0.11. Let A be the
events consist of? event that the revenue is not below expectation. Let B be
(a) A ∩ B (b) A ∪ C the event that the revenue is not above expectation. What
(c) B ∩ C (d) A ∪ (B ∩ C) is the probability of the intersection of these two events?
1.3.11 A car repair can be performed either on time or late and What is the probability of the union of these two events?
either satisfactorily or unsatisfactorily. The probability 1.3.15 Recall that an advertising campaign is canceled before
of a repair being on time and satisfactory is 0.26. The launch with probability 0.10, is launched but canceled
probability of a repair being on time is 0.74. The early with probability 0.18, is launched and runs its
probability of a repair being satisfactory is 0.41. What is targeted length with probability 0.43, and is launched and
the probability of a repair being late and unsatisfactory?
38 CHAPTER 1 PROBABILITY THEORY

FIGURE 1.62
S
P(C|A) = P(C ∩ A)/P(A) A
C
A♥ 2♥ 3♥ 4♥ 5♥ 6♥ 7♥ 8♥ 9♥ 10♥ J♥ Q♥ K♥
1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52

A♣ 2♣ 3♣ 4♣ 5♣ 6♣ 7♣ 8♣ 9♣ 10♣ J♣ Q♣ K♣
1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52

A♦ 2♦ 3♦ 4♦ 5♦ 6♦ 7♦ 8♦ 9♦ 10♦ J♦ Q♦ K♦
1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52

A♠ 2♠ 3♠ 4♠ 5♠ 6♠ 7♠ 8♠ 9♠ 10♠ J♠ Q♠ K♠
1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52 1/52

Suppose that somebody draws a card and announces that it is from the heart suit. What
then is the probability that it is a picture card? This conditional probability is
P(A ∩ B) 3/52 3
P(B|A) = = =
P(A) 1/4 13
Notice that in this case, P(B|A) = P(B) because the proportion of picture cards in the heart
suit is identical to the proportion of picture cards in the whole pack. The events A and B are
then said to be independent events, which are discussed more fully in Section 1.5.
Finally, let C be the event that the A♥ is chosen, with P(C) = 1/52. If it is known that
a card from the heart suit is obtained, then intuitively the conditional probability of the card
being A♥ is 1/13 since there are 13 equally likely cards in the heart suit. As Figure 1.62
shows, this is correct because
P(C ∩ A) P(C) 1/52 1
P(C|A) = = = =
P(A) P(A) 1/4 13

1.4.3 Problems

1.4.1 Consider again Figure 1.55 and calculate the probabilities: (b) P(heart|card from red suit)
(a) P(A|B) (c) P(card from red suit|heart)
(b) P(C|A) (d) P(heart|card from black suit)
(c) P(B|A ∩ B) (e) P(king|card from red suit)
(d) P(B|A ∪ B) (f) P(king|red picture card)
(e) P(A|A ∪ B ∪ C) 1.4.4 If A ⊂ B and B =
 ∅, is P(A) larger or smaller than
(f) P(A ∩ B|A ∪ B) P(A|B)? Provide some intuitive reasoning for your
1.4.2 When a company receives an order, there is a probability answer.
of 0.42 that its value is over $1000. If an order is valued at 1.4.5 A ball is chosen at random from a bag containing
over $1000, then there is a probability of 0.63 that the 150 balls that are either red or blue and either dull or
customer will pay with a credit card. shiny. There are 36 red shiny balls and 54 blue balls.
(a) What is the probability that the next three What is the probability of the chosen ball being
independent orders will each be valued at over $1000? shiny conditional on it being red? What is the probability
(b) What is the probability that the next order will of the chosen ball being dull conditional on it being red?
be valued at over $1000 but will not be paid with a
1.4.6 A car repair is either on time or late and either
credit card?
satisfactory or unsatisfactory. If a repair is made on time,
1.4.3 A card is drawn at random from a pack of cards. Calculate: then there is a probability of 0.85 that it is satisfactory.
(a) P(A♥|card from red suit)
 1.4 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY 39

There is a probability of 0.77 that a repair will be made height but not for length. Moreover, 92% of the parts are
on time. What is the probability that a repair is made on within the specified tolerance limits for either width or
time and is satisfactory? height, or both of these dimensions.
(a) If a part is within the specified tolerance limits for
1.4.7 Assess whether the probabilities of the events (i) increase,
height, what is the probability that it will also be
decrease, or remain unchanged when they are conditioned
within the specified tolerance limits for width?
on the events (ii).
(b) If a part is within the specified tolerance limits for
(a) (i) It rains tomorrow, (ii) it is raining today.
length and width, what is the probability that it will
(b) (i) A lottery winner has black hair, (ii) the lottery
be within the specified tolerance limits for all three
winner has brown eyes.
dimensions?
(c) (i) A lottery winner has black hair, (ii) the lottery
winner owns a red car. 1.4.12 A gene can be either type A or type B, and it can be either
(d) (i) A lottery winner is more than 50 years old, (ii) the dominant or recessive. If the gene is type B, then there
lottery winner is more than 30 years old. is a probability of 0.31 that it is dominant. There is also
a probability of 0.22 that a gene is type B and it is
1.4.8 Suppose that births are equally likely to be on any day.
dominant. What is the probability that a gene is of
What is the probability that somebody chosen at random
type A?
has a birthday on the first day of a month? How does this
probability change conditional on the knowledge that the 1.4.13 A manufactured component has its quality graded on its
person’s birthday is in March? In February? performance, appearance, and cost. Each of these three
characteristics is graded as either pass or fail. There is a
1.4.9 Consider again Figure 1.24 and the battery lifetimes.
probability of 0.40 that a component passes on both
Calculate the probabilities:
appearance and cost. There is a probability of 0.31 that a
(a) A type I battery lasts longest conditional on it not
component passes on all three characteristics. There is a
failing first
probability of 0.64 that a component passes on
(b) A type I battery lasts longest conditional on a type II
performance. There is a probability of 0.19 that a
battery failing first
component fails on all three characteristics. There is a
(c) A type I battery lasts longest conditional on a type II
probability of 0.06 that a component passes on
battery lasting the longest
appearance but fails on both performance and cost.
(d) A type I battery lasts longest conditional on a type II
(a) What is the probability that a component passes on
battery not failing first
cost but fails on both performance and appearance?
1.4.10 Consider again Figure 1.25 and the two assembly lines. (b) If a component passes on both appearance and cost,
Calculate the probabilities: what is the probability that it passes on all three
(a) Both lines are at full capacity conditional on neither characteristics?
line being shut down 1.4.14 An agricultural research establishment grows vegetables
(b) At least one line is at full capacity conditional on and grades each one as either good or bad for its taste,
neither line being shut down good or bad for its size, and good or bad for its
(c) One line is at full capacity conditional on exactly one appearance. Overall 78% of the vegetables have a good
line being shut down taste. However, only 69% of the vegetables have both a
(d) Neither line is at full capacity conditional on at least good taste and a good size. Also, 5% of the vegetables
one line operating at partial capacity have both a good taste and a good appearance, but a bad
1.4.11 The length, width, and height of a manufactured part are size. Finally, 84% of the vegetables have either a good
classified as being either within or outside specified size or a good appearance.
tolerance limits. In a quality inspection 86% of the parts (a) If a vegetable has a good taste, what is the probability
are found to be within the specified tolerance limits for that it also has a good size?
width, but only 80% of the parts are within the specified (b) If a vegetable has a bad size and a bad appearance,
tolerance limits for all three dimensions. However, 2% of what is the probability that it has a good taste?
the parts are within the specified tolerance limits for 1.4.15 There is a 4% probability that the plane used for a
width and length but not for height, and 3% of the parts commercial flight has technical problems, and this causes
are within the specified tolerance limits for width and a delay in the flight. If there are no technical problems
40 CHAPTER 1 PROBABILITY THEORY

with the plane, then there is still a 33% probability that expectation with probability 0.19, exactly meets
the flight is delayed due to all other reasons. What is the expectation with probability 0.26, is slightly above
probability that the flight is delayed? expectation with probability 0.36, and is considerably
1.4.16 In a reliability test there is a 42% probability that a above expectation with probability 0.11. If revenue is not
computer chip survives more than 500 temperature below expectation, what is the probability that it exactly
cycles. If a computer chip does not survive more than meets expectation?
500 temperature cycles, then there is a 73% probability 1.4.18 Recall that an advertising campaign is canceled before
that it was manufactured by company A. What is the launch with probability 0.10, is launched but canceled
probability that a computer chip is not manufactured by early with probability 0.18, is launched and runs its
company A and does not survive more than 500 targeted length with probability 0.43, and is launched and
temperature cycles? is extended beyond its targeted length with probability
1.4.17 Recall that a company’s revenue is considerably below 0.29. If the advertising campaign is launched, what is the
expectation with probability 0.08, is slightly below probability that it runs at least as long as targeted?

1.5 Probabilities of Event Intersections

1.5.1 General Multiplication Law

It follows from the definition of the conditional probability P(A|B) that the probability of the
intersection of two events A ∩ B can be calculated as
P(A ∩ B) = P(B) P(A|B)
That is, the probability of events A and B both occurring can be obtained by multiplying the
probability of event B by the probability of event A conditional on event B. It also follows
from the definition of the conditional probability P(B|A) that
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B|A)
so that the probability of events A and B both occurring can also be obtained by multiplying
the probability of event A by the probability of event B conditional on event A. Therefore, it
does not matter which of the two events A or B is conditioned upon.
More generally, since
P(A ∩ B ∩ C)
P(C|A ∩ B) =
P(A ∩ B)
the probability of the intersection of three events can be calculated as
P(A ∩ B ∩ C) = P(A ∩ B) P(C|A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B|A) P(C|A ∩ B)
Thus, the probability of all three events occurring can be obtained by multiplying together
the probability of one event, the probability of a second event conditioned on the first event,
and the probability of the third event conditioned on the intersection of the first and second
events. This formula can be extended in an obvious way to the following multiplication law
for the intersection of a series of events.

Probabilities of Event Intersections

The probability of the intersection of a series of events A1 , . . . , An can be calculated
from the expression
P(A1 ∩ · · · ∩ An ) = P(A1 ) × P(A2 |A1 ) × P(A3 |A1 ∩ A2 ) ×
· · · × P(An |A1 ∩ · · · ∩ An−1 )
48 CHAPTER 1 PROBABILITY THEORY

If a red die and a blue die are rolled, consider the probability that both dice record even
scores. In this case the scores on the two dice will be independent of each other since the score
on one die does not affect the score that is obtained on the other die. If A is the event that the
red die has an even score, and B is the event that the blue die has an even score, the required
probability is
1 1 1
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B) = × =
2 2 4
A more tedious way of calculating this probability is to note that 9 out of the 36 outcomes in
the sample space (see Figure 1.46) have both scores even, so that the required probability is
9/36 = 1/4.
Suppose that two cards are drawn from a pack of cards without replacement. What is the
probability that exactly one card from the heart suit is obtained? A very tedious way to solve
this problem is to count the number of outcomes in the sample space (see Figure 1.13) that
satisfy this condition. A better way is

P(exactly one heart) = P(first card heart, second card not heart)
+ P(first card not heart, second card heart)
   
13 39 39 13 13
= × + × = = 0.382
52 51 52 51 34
Since the second drawing is made without replacement, the events “first card heart” and
“second card heart” are not independent. However, notice that if the second card is drawn with
replacement, then the two events are independent, and the required probability is

P(exactly one heart) = P(first card heart, second card not heart)
+ P(first card not heart, second card heart)
   
1 3 3 1 3
= × + × = = 0.375
4 4 4 4 8
It is interesting that the probability is slightly higher when the second drawing is made without
replacement.

1.5.4 Problems

1.5.1 Two cards are chosen from a pack of cards without (b) (i) The first card is a heart, (ii) the second card is a
replacement. Calculate the probabilities: picture card.
(a) Both are picture cards. (c) (i) The first card is from a red suit, (ii) the second
(b) Both are from red suits. card is from a red suit.
(c) One card is from a red suit and one card is from a (d) (i) The first card is a picture card, (ii) the second card
black suit. is from a red suit.
(e) (i) The first card is a red picture card, (ii) the second
1.5.2 Repeat Problem 1.5.1, except that the second drawing is
card is a heart.
made with replacement. Compare your answers with
those from Problem 1.5.1. 1.5.4 Four cards are chosen from a pack of cards without
replacement. What is the probability that all four cards
1.5.3 Two cards are chosen from a pack of cards without
are hearts? What is the probability that all four cards are
replacement. Are the following events independent?
from red suits? What is the probability that all four cards
(a) (i) The first card is a picture card, (ii) the second card
are from different suits?
is a picture card.
 1.5 PROBABILITIES OF EVENT INTERSECTIONS 49

FIGURE 1.66
1 2
Switch diagram
0.88 0.92
?

0.90

1.5.5 Repeat Problem 1.5.4, except that the drawings are made that there will be no more than 1 broken lightbulb in the
with replacement. Compare your answers with those from sample? (This problem is continued in Problem 1.7.8.)
Problem 1.5.4. 1.5.10 Repeat Problem 1.5.9, except that the drawings are made
1.5.6 Show that if the events A and B are independent events, with replacement. Compare your answers with those from
then so are the events Problem 1.5.9.
(a) A and B (b) A and B (c) A and B 1.5.11 Suppose that a bag contains 43 red balls, 54 blue balls,
1.5.7 Consider the network given in Figure 1.66 with three and 72 green balls, and that 2 balls are chosen at random
switches. Suppose that the switches operate independently without replacement. Construct a probability tree for this
of each other and that switch 1 allows a message through problem. What is the probability that 2 green balls will be
with probability 0.88, switch 2 allows a message through chosen? What is the probability that the 2 balls chosen
with probability 0.92, and switch 3 allows a message will have different colors?
through with probability 0.90. What is the probability that 1.5.12 Repeat Problem 1.5.11, except that the drawings are made
a message will find a route through the network? with replacement. Compare your answers with those from
Problem 1.5.11.
1.5.8 Suppose that birthdays are equally likely to be on any day
of the year (ignore February 29 as a possibility). Show 1.5.13 A biased coin has a probability p of resulting in a head.
that the probability that two people chosen at random If the coin is tossed twice, what value of p minimizes the
have different birthdays is 364/365. Show that the probability that the same result is obtained on both throws?
probability that three people chosen at random all 1.5.14 If a fair die is rolled six times, what is the probability that
have different birthdays is each score is obtained exactly once? If a fair die is rolled
364 363 seven times, what is the probability that a 6 is not
×
365 365 obtained at all?
and extend this pattern to show that the probability that n 1.5.15 (a) If a fair die is rolled five times, what is the
people chosen at random all have different birthdays is probability that the numbers obtained are all even
364 366 − n numbers?
× ··· ×
365 365 (b) If a fair die is rolled three times, what is the probability
What then is the probability that in a group of n people, at that the three numbers obtained are all different?
least two people will share the same birthday? Evaluate this (c) If three cards are taken at random from a pack of
probability for n = 10, n = 15, n = 20, n = 25, n = 30, cards with replacement, what is the probability that
and n = 35. What is the smallest value of n for which there are two black cards and one red card?
the probability is larger than a half? Do you think that (d) If three cards are taken at random from a pack of
birthdays are equally likely to be on any day of the year? cards without replacement, what is the probability
that there are two black cards and one red card?
1.5.9 Suppose that 17 lightbulbs in a box of 100 lightbulbs are
broken and that 3 are selected at random without 1.5.16 Suppose that n components are available, and that each
replacement. Construct a probability tree for this component has a probability of 0.90 of operating
problem. What is the probability that there will be no correctly, independent of the other components. What
broken lightbulbs in the sample? What is the probability value of n is needed so that there is a probability of
50 CHAPTER 1 PROBABILITY THEORY

at least 0.995 that at least one component operates 1.5.19 Suppose that there are two companies such that for each
correctly? one the revenue is considerably below expectation
with probability 0.08, is slightly below expectation
1.5.17 Suppose that an insurance company insures its clients for
with probability 0.19, exactly meets expectation with
flood damage to property. Can the company reasonably
probability 0.26, is slightly above expectation with
expect that the claims from its clients will be independent
probability 0.36, and is considerably above expectation
of each other?
with probability 0.11. Furthermore, suppose that the
1.5.18 A system has four computers. Computer 1 works with a revenues from both companies are independent. What is
probability of 0.88; computer 2 works with a probability the probability that neither company has a revenue below
of 0.78; computer 3 works with a probability of 0.92; expectation?
computer 4 works with a probability of 0.85. Suppose
1.5.20 Consider four advertising campaigns where for each one
that the operations of the computers are independent of
it is canceled before launch with probability 0.10, it is
each other.
launched but canceled early with probability 0.18, it is
(a) Suppose that the system works only when all four
launched and runs its targeted length with probability
computers are working. What is the probability that
0.43, and it is launched and is extended beyond its
the system works?
targeted length with probability 0.29. If the advertising
(b) Suppose that the system works only if at least one
campaigns are independent, what is the probability that
computer is working. What is the probability that the
all four campaigns will run at least as long as they are
system works?
targeted?
(c) Suppose that the system works only if at least three
computers are working. What is the probability that
the system works?

1.6 Posterior Probabilities

1.6.1 Law of Total Probability

Let A1 , . . . , An be a partition of a sample space S so that the events Ai are mutually exclusive
with

S = A1 ∪ · · · ∪ An

Suppose that the probabilities of these n events, P(A1 ), . . . , P(An ), are known. In addition,
consider an event B as shown in Figure 1.67, and suppose that the conditional probabilities
P(B|A1 ), . . . , P(B|An ) are also known.

FIGURE 1.67
A1 A2 S
A partition A1 , . . . , An and an
event B
A3

An
 1.6 POSTERIOR PROBABILITIES 55

In conclusion, the chemical company should realize that it is wasteful to disregard off-hand
batches that are indicated to have high impurity levels. Further investigation of these batches
should be undertaken to identify the large proportion of them that are in fact satisfactory
products.

1.6.4 Problems

1.6.1 Suppose it is known that 1% of the population suffers from tagged. Species 3 accounts for 17% of the birds, of which
a particular disease. A blood test has a 97% chance of 50% have been tagged. If a tagged bird is observed, what
identifying the disease for diseased individuals, but also are the probabilities that it is of species 1, of species 2, and
has a 6% chance of falsely indicating that a healthy person of species 3?
has the disease.
1.6.5 After production, an electrical circuit is given a quality
(a) What is the probability that a person will have a
score of A, B, C, or D. Over a certain period of time,
positive blood test?
77% of the circuits were given a quality score A,
(b) If your blood test is positive, what is the chance that
11% were given a quality score B, 7% were given a
you have the disease?
quality score C, and 5% were given a quality score D.
(c) If your blood test is negative, what is the chance that
Furthermore, it was found that 2% of the circuits given a
you do not have the disease?
quality score A eventually failed, and the failure rate was
1.6.2 Bag A contains 3 red balls and 7 blue balls. Bag B contains 10% for circuits given a quality score B, 14% for circuits
8 red balls and 4 blue balls. Bag C contains 5 red balls and given a quality score C, and 25% for circuits given a
11 blue balls. A bag is chosen at random, with each bag quality score D.
being equally likely to be chosen, and then a ball is chosen (a) If a circuit failed, what is the probability that it had
at random from that bag. Calculate the probabilities: received a quality score either C or D?
(a) A red ball is chosen. (b) If a circuit did not fail, what is the probability that it
(b) A blue ball is chosen. had received a quality score A?
(c) A red ball from bag B is chosen.
1.6.6 The weather on a particular day is classified as either cold,
If it is known that a red ball is chosen, what is the probability
warm, or hot. There is a probability of 0.15 that it is cold
that it comes from bag A? If it is known that a blue ball
and a probability of 0.25 that it is warm. In addition, on
is chosen, what is the probability that it comes from bag B?
each day it may either rain or not rain. On cold days there is
1.6.3 A class had two sections. Section I had 55 students of a probability of 0.30 that it will rain, on warm days there is
whom 10 received A grades. Section II had 45 students a probability of 0.40 that it will rain, and on hot days there
of whom 11 received A grades. Now 1 of the 100 students is a probability of 0.50 that it will rain. If it is not raining
is chosen at random, with each being equally likely to be on a particular day, what is the probability that it is cold?
chosen.
1.6.7 A valve can be used at four temperature levels. If the valve
(a) What is the probability that the student was in
is used at a cold temperature, then there is a probability of
section I?
0.003 that it will leak. If the valve is used at a medium
(b) What is the probability that the student received an
temperature, then there is a probability of 0.009 that it will
A grade?
leak. If the valve is used at a warm temperature, then there
(c) What is the probability that the student received an
is a probability of 0.014 that it will leak. If the valve is used
A grade if the student is known to have been in
at a hot temperature, then there is a probability of 0.018 that
section I?
it will leak. Under standard operating conditions, the valve
(d) What is the probability that the student was in section I
is used at a cold temperature 12% of the time, at a medium
if the student is known to have received an A grade?
temperature 55% of the time, at a warm temperature 20%
1.6.4 An island has three species of bird. Species 1 accounts for of the time, and at a hot temperature 13% of the time.
45% of the birds, of which 10% have been tagged. Species (a) If the valve leaks, what is the probability that it is
2 accounts for 38% of the birds, of which 15% have been being used at the hot temperature?
56 CHAPTER 1 PROBABILITY THEORY

(b) If the valve does not leak, what is the probability that it there is a probability of 0.60 that the CEO receives a
is being used at the medium temperature? bonus; is slightly above expectation with probability 0.36,
in which case there is a probability of 0.77 that the CEO
1.6.8 A company sells five types of wheelchairs, with type A
receives a bonus; and is considerably above expectation
being 12% of the sales, type B being 34% of the sales,
with probability 0.11, in which case there is a probability
type C being 7% of the sales, type D being 25% of the
of 0.99 that the CEO receives a bonus. What is the
sales, and type E being 22% of the sales. In addition,
probability that the CEO receives a bonus? If the CEO
19% of the type A wheelchair sales are motorized, 50% of
receives a bonus, what is the probability that company has
the type B wheelchair sales are motorized, 4% of the
a revenue below expectation?
type C wheelchair sales are motorized, 32% of the type D
wheelchair sales are motorized, and 76% of the type E 1.6.10 An advertising campaign is canceled before launch with
wheelchair sales are motorized. probability 0.10, in which case the marketing company is
(a) If a motorized wheelchair is sold, what is the fired with probability 0.74; is launched but canceled early
probability that it is of type C? with probability 0.18, in which case the marketing
(b) If a nonmotorized wheelchair is sold, what is the company is fired with probability 0.43; is launched and
probability that it is of type D? runs its targeted length with probability 0.43, in which case
the marketing company is fired with probability 0.16; and
1.6.9 A company’s revenue is considerably below expectation is launched and is extended beyond its targeted length with
with probability 0.08, in which case there is a probability probability 0.29, in which case the marketing company is
of 0.03 that the CEO receives a bonus; is slightly below fired with probability 0.01. What is the probability that the
expectation with probability 0.19, in which case there is a marketing company is fired? If the marketing company is
probability of 0.14 that the CEO receives a bonus; exactly fired, what is the probability that the advertising campaign
meets expectation with probability 0.26, in which case was not canceled before launch?

1.7 Counting Techniques

In many situations the sample space S consists of a very large number of outcomes that
the experimenter will not want to list in their entirety. However, if the outcomes are equally
likely, then it suffices to know the number of outcomes in the sample space and the number of
outcomes contained within an event of interest. In this section, various counting techniques
are discussed that can be used to facilitate such computations. Remember that if a sample
space S consists of N equally likely outcomes, of which n are contained within the event A,
then the probability of the event A is
n
P(A) =
N

1.7.1 Multiplication Rule

Suppose that an experiment consists of k “components” and that the ith component has n i
possible outcomes. The total number of experimental outcomes will then be equal to the
product
n1 × n2 × · · · × nk
This is known as the multiplication rule and can easily be seen by referring to the tree diagram
in Figure 1.70. The n 1 outcomes of the first component are represented by the n 1 branches at
the beginning of the tree, each of which splits into n 2 branches corresponding to the outcomes
of the second component, and so on. The total number of experimental outcomes (the size of
the sample space) is equal to the number of branch ends at the end of the tree, which is equal
to the product of the n i .
 1.7 COUNTING TECHNIQUES 63

so that the number of hands consisting of two kings and two queens is
   
4 4
× = 36
2 2
The required probability is thus
36
 1.33 × 10−4
270,725
which is a chance of about 13 out of 100,000.

1.7.3 Problems

1.7.1 Evaluate: (c) What is the probability that the sample contains no
(a) 7! (b) 8! (c) 4! (d) 13! broken lightbulbs?
(d) How many samples contain exactly 1 broken
1.7.2 Evaluate:
lightbulb?
(a) P27 (b) P59 (c) P25 (d) P417
(e) What is the probability that the sample contains no
1.7.3 Evaluate: more than 1 broken lightbulb?
(a) C26 (b) C48 (c) C25 (d) C614
1.7.9 Show that Ckn = Ckn−1 + Ck−1 n−1
. Can you provide an
1.7.4 A menu has five appetizers, three soups, seven main interpretation of this equality?
courses, six salad dressings, and eight desserts. In how
many ways can a full meal be chosen? In how many ways 1.7.10 A poker hand consists of five cards chosen at random
can a meal be chosen if either an appetizer or a soup is from a pack of cards.
ordered, but not both? (a) How many different hands are there?
(b) How many hands consist of all hearts?
1.7.5 In an experiment to test iron strengths, three different ores, (c) How many hands consist of cards all from the same
four different furnace temperatures, and two different suit (a “flush”)?
cooling methods are to be considered. Altogether, (d) What is the probability of being dealt a flush?
how many experimental configurations are possible? (e) How many hands contain all four aces?
1.7.6 Four players compete in a tournament and are ranked (f) How many hands contain four cards of the same
from 1 to 4. They then compete in another tournament number or picture?
and are again ranked from 1 to 4. Suppose that their (g) What is the probability of being dealt a hand
performances in the second tournament are unrelated to containing four cards of the same number or picture?
their performances in the first tournament, so that the two 1.7.11 In an arrangement of n objects in a circle, an object’s
sets of rankings are independent. neighbors are important, but an object’s place in the circle
(a) What is the probability that each competitor receives is not important. Thus, rotations of a given arrangement
an identical ranking in the two tournaments? are considered to be the same arrangement. Explain why
(b) What is the probability that nobody receives the same the number of different arrangements is (n − 1)!
ranking twice?
1.7.12 In how many ways can six people sit in six seats in a line
1.7.7 Twenty players compete in a tournament. In how at a cinema? In how many ways can the six people sit
many ways can rankings be assigned to the top five around a dinner table eating pizza after the movie?
competitors? In how many ways can the best five
competitors be chosen (without being in any order)? 1.7.13 Repeat Problem 1.7.12 with the condition that one of the
six people, Andrea, must sit next to Scott. In how many
1.7.8 There are 17 broken lightbulbs in a box of 100 lightbulbs.
ways can the seating arrangements be made if Andrea
A random sample of 3 lightbulbs is chosen without
refuses to sit next to Scott?
replacement.
(a) How many ways are there to choose the sample? 1.7.14 A total of n balls are to be put into k boxes with the
(b) How many samples contain no broken lightbulbs? conditions that there will be n 1 balls in box 1, n 2 balls in
64 CHAPTER 1 PROBABILITY THEORY

box 2, and so on, with n k balls being placed in box k he decides that five of the visits will be made one week,
(n 1 + · · · + n k = n). Explain why the number of ways of and the other five visits will be made the following week,
doing this is in how many different ways can the ten cities be split into
n! two groups of five cities?
n1! × · · · × nk !
1.7.20 Suppose that 5 cards are taken without replacement from
Explain why this is just Cnn1 = Cnn2 when k = 2. a deck of 52 cards. How many ways are there to do this so
1.7.15 Explain why the following two problems are identical and that there are 2 red cards and 3 black cards?
solve them.
1.7.21 A hand of 8 cards is chosen at random from an ordinary
(a) In how many ways can 12 balls be placed in 3 boxes,
deck of 52 playing cards without replacement.
when the first box can hold 3 balls, the second box
(a) What is the probability that the hand does not have
can hold 4 balls, and the third box can hold 5 balls.
any hearts?
(b) In how many ways can 3 red balls, 4 blue balls, and 5
(b) What is the probability that the hand consists of two
green balls be placed in a straight line?
(See Problem 1.7.14.) hearts, two diamonds, two clubs, and two spades?

1.7.16 A garage employs 14 mechanics, of whom 3 are needed 1.7.22 A box contains 40 batteries, 5 of which have low
on one job and, at the same time, 4 are needed on another lifetimes, 30 of which have average lifetimes, and 5 of
job. The remaining 7 are to be kept in reserve. In how which have high lifetimes. A consumer requires 8
many ways can the job assignments be made? batteries to run an appliance and randomly selects them
(See Problem 1.7.14.) all from the box. What is the probability that among the
8 batteries fitted into the consumer’s appliance, there are
1.7.17 A company has 15 applicants to interview, and 3 are to be exactly 2 low, 4 average and 2 high lifetimes batteries?
invited on each day of the working week. In how many
ways can the applicants be scheduled? 1.7.23 In each of 3 years a company’s revenue is classified as
(See Problem 1.7.14.) being either considerably below expectation, slightly
below expectation, exactly meeting expectation, slightly
1.7.18 A quality inspector selects a sample of 12 items at
above expectation, or considerably above expectation.
random from a collection of 60 items, of which 18 have
How many different sequences of revenue results are
excellent quality, 25 have good quality, 12 have poor
possible?
quality, and 5 are defective.
(a) What is the probability that the sample only contains 1.7.24 A marketing company is hired to manage four advertising
items that have either excellent or good quality? campaigns sequentially, one after the other. Each
(b) What is the probability that the sample contains three advertising campaign may be canceled before launch,
items of excellent quality, three items of good quality, launched but canceled early, launched and meets its
three items of poor quality, and three defective items? targeted length, or launched and extended beyond its
1.7.19 A salesman has to visit ten different cities. In how many targeted length. How many different sequences of
different ways can the ordering of the visits be made? If campaign results are possible?

1.8 Case Study: Microelectronic Solder Joints

Suppose that using a particular production method there is a probability of 0.85 that a solder
joint has a barrel shape, there is a probability of 0.03 that a solder joint has a cylinder shape,
and there is a probability of 0.12 that a solder joint has an hourglass shape. If it is known
that a particular solder joint does not have a barrel shape, what is the probability that it has a
cylinder shape? This is a conditional probability that can be calculated as
P(cylinder and not barrel) P(cylinder)
P(cylinder|not barrel) = =
P(not barrel) P(cylinder) + P(hourglass)
0.03
= = 0.2
0.03 + 0.12
66 CHAPTER 1 PROBABILITY THEORY

the sample is {0, 1, 2, 3, 4}. The total number of different samples that can be chosen is
 
16 16!
= = 1820
4 12!4!
and the probability that there will be exactly two cracked solder joints in the researcher’s
sample is
   
5 11
×
2 2 10 × 55
  = = 0.302
16 1820
4
This hypergeometric distribution is discussed more comprehensively in Section 3.3.

1.9 Case Study: Internet Marketing

When a organisation’s website is accessed, there is a probability of 0.07 that the web ad-
dress was typed in directly. In such a case, there is a probability of 0.08 that an online purchase
will be made. On the other hand, when the website is accessed indirectly, which occurs with
probability 0.93, then there is only a 0.01 chance that an online purchase will be made.
The probability that the website is accessed directly and that a purchase is made is
P(direct access) × P(purchase|direct access) = 0.07 × 0.08 = 0.0056
Similarly, the probability that the website is accessed indirectly and that a purchase is made is
P(indirect access) × P(purchase|indirect access) = 0.93 × 0.01 = 0.0093
What proportion of online purchases are from individuals who access the website directly?
Using Bayes’ Theorem this is calculated as
P(direct access) × P(purchase|direct access)
(P(direct access) × P(purchase|direct access)) + (P(indirect access) × P(purchase|indirect access))
0.0056
= = 0.376
0.0056 + 0.0093
so that the proportion is 37.6%.

1.10 Supplementary Problems

1.10.1 What is the sample space for the average score of two 1.10.5 If a card is chosen at random from a pack of cards,
dice? what is the probability of choosing a diamond picture
card?
1.10.2 What is the sample space when a winner and a runner-up
are chosen in a tournament with four contestants. 1.10.6 Two cards are drawn from a pack of cards. Is it more
likely that two hearts will be drawn when the drawing is
1.10.3 A biased coin is known to have a greater probability of
with replacement or without replacement?
recording a head than a tail. How can it be used to
determine fairly which team in a football game has the 1.10.7 Two fair dice are thrown. A is the event that the sum of
choice of kick-off? the scores is no larger than four, and B is the event that
the two scores are identical. Calculate the probabilities:
1.10.4 If two fair dice are thrown, what is the probability that
(a) A ∩ B (b) A ∪ B (c) A ∪ B
their two scores differ by no more than one?
 1.10 SUPPLEMENTARY PROBLEMS 67

FIGURE 1.75
1 2
Switch diagram
0.85 0.85
?
3 0.85

4 5
0.85 0.85

1.10.8 Two fair dice are thrown, one red and one blue. Calculate: (d) What is the probability that a score of six is
(a) P(red die is 5|sum of scores is 8) recorded?
(b) P(either die is 5|sum of scores is 8) (e) What is the probability that a score of four is
(c) P(sum of scores is 8|either die is 5) recorded if it is known that the coin is tossed?
(f) If a score of six is recorded, what is the probability
1.10.9 Consider the network shown in Figure 1.75 with that an odd number was obtained on the die?
five switches. Suppose that the switches operate
independently and that each switch allows a message 1.10.13 How many sequences of length 4 can be made when
through with a probability of 0.85. What is the probability each component of the sequence can take five different
that a message will find a route through the network? values? How many sequences of length 5 can be made
when each component of the sequence can take four
1.10.10 Which is more likely: obtaining at least one head in two different values? In general, if 3 ≤ n 1 < n 2 , are there
tosses of a fair coin, or at least two heads in four tosses more sequences of length n 1 with n 2 possible values for
of a fair coin? each component, or more sequences of length n 2 with n 1
possible values for each component?
1.10.11 Bag 1 contains six red balls, seven blue balls, and three
green balls. Bag 2 contains eight red balls, eight blue 1.10.14 Twenty copying jobs need to be done. If there are four
balls, and two green balls. Bag 3 contains two red balls, copy machines, in how many ways can five jobs be
nine blue balls, and eight green balls. Bag 4 contains assigned to each of the four machines? If an additional
four red balls, seven blue balls, and no green balls. copier is used, in how many ways can four jobs be
Bag 1 is chosen with a probability of 0.15, bag 2 with a assigned to each of the five machines?
probability of 0.20, bag 3 with a probability of 0.35, and
1.10.15 A bag contains two counters with each independently
bag 4 with a probability of 0.30, and then a ball is chosen
equally likely to be either black or white. What is the
at random from the bag. Calculate the probabilities:
distribution of X , the number of white counters in the
(a) A blue ball is chosen.
bag? Suppose that a white counter is added to the bag
(b) Bag 4 was chosen if the ball is green.
and then one of the three counters is selected at random
(c) Bag 1 was chosen if the ball is blue.
and taken out of the bag. What is the distribution of X
1.10.12 A fair die is rolled. If an even number is obtained, then conditional on the counter taken out being white? What
that is the recorded score. However, if an odd number is if the counter taken out of the bag is black?
obtained, then a fair coin is tossed. If a head is obtained,
1.10.16 It is found that 28% of orders received by a company are
then the recorded score is the number on the die, but if a
from first-time customers, with the other 72% coming
tail is obtained, then the recorded score is twice the
from repeat customers. In addition, 75% of the orders
number on the die.
from first-time customers are dispatched within one day,
(a) Give the possible values of the recorded score.
and overall 30% of the company’s orders are from repeat
(b) What is the probability that a score of ten is
customers whose orders are not dispatched within
recorded?
one day. If an order is dispatched within one day, what is
(c) What is the probability that a score of three is
the probability that it was for a first-time customer?
recorded?
68 CHAPTER 1 PROBABILITY THEORY

1.10.17 When asked to select their favorite opera work, 26% of 1.10.22 A hand of 3 cards (without replacement) is chosen at
the respondents selected a piece by Puccini, and 22% random from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards.
of the respondents selected a piece by Verdi. Moreover, (a) What is the probability that the hand contains only
59% of the respondents who selected a piece by Puccini diamonds?
were female, and 45% of the respondents who selected a (b) What is the probability that the hand contains one
piece by Verdi were female. Altogether, 62% of the ace, one king, and one queen?
respondents were female.
1.10.23 A hand of 4 cards (without replacement) is chosen
(a) If a respondent selected a piece that is by neither
at random from an ordinary deck of 52 playing
Puccini nor Verdi, what is the probability that the
cards.
respondent is female?
(a) What is the probability that the hand does not have
(b) What proportion of males selected a piece by
any aces?
Puccini?
(b) What is the probability that the hand has exactly one
1.10.18 A random sample of 10 fibers is taken from a collection ace?
of 92 fibers that consists of 43 fibers of polymer A, Suppose now that the 4 cards are taken with
17 fibers of polymer B, and 32 fibers of polymer C. replacement.
(a) What is the probability that the sample does not (c) What is the probability that the same card is
contain any fibers of polymer B? obtained four times?
(b) What is the probability that the sample contains
1.10.24 Are the following statements true or false?
exactly one fiber of polymer B?
(a) If a fair coin is tossed three times, the probability of
(c) What is the probability that the sample contains
obtaining two heads and one tail is the same as the
three fibers of polymer A, three fibers of polymer B,
probability of obtaining one head and two tails.
and four fibers of polymer C?
(b) If a card is drawn at random from a deck of cards,
1.10.19 A fair coin is tossed five times. What is the probability the probability that it is a heart increases if it is
that there is not a sequence of three outcomes of the conditioned on the knowledge that it is an ace.
same kind? (c) The number of ways of choosing five different
letters from the alphabet is more than the number of
1.10.20 Consider telephone calls made to a company’s
seconds in a year.
complaint line. Let A be the event that the call is
(d) If two events are independent, then the probability
answered within 10 seconds. Let B be the event that the
that they both occur can be calculated by
call is answered by one of the company’s experienced
multiplying their individual probabilities.
telephone operators. Let C be the event that the call
(e) It is always true that P(A|B) + P(A |B) = 1.
lasts less than 5 minutes. Let D be the event that the
(f) It is always true that P(A|B) + P(A|B ) = 1.
complaint is handled successfully by the telephone
(g) It is always true that P(A|B) ≤ P(A).
operator. Describe the following events.
(a) B ∩ C (b) (A ∪ B ) ∩ D 1.10.25 There is a probability of 0.55 that a soccer team will win
(c) A ∩ C ∩ D (d) (A ∩ C) ∪ (B ∩ D) a game. There is also a probability of 0.85 that the
1.10.21 A manager has 20 different job orders, of which 7 must soccer team will not have a player sent off in the game.
be assigned to production line I, 7 must be assigned to However, if the soccer team does not have a player sent
production line II, and 6 must be assigned to production off, then there is a probability of 0.60 that the team will
line III. win the game. What is the probability that the team has a
(a) In how many ways can the assignments be made? player sent off but still wins the game?
(b) If the first job and the second job must be assigned 1.10.26 A warehouse contains 500 machines. Each machine is
to the same production line, in how many ways can either new or used, and each machine has either good
the assignments be made? quality or bad quality. There are 120 new machines that
(c) If the first job and the second job cannot be assigned have bad quality. There are 230 used machines. Suppose
to the same production line, in how many ways can that a machine is chosen at random, with each machine
the assignments be made? being equally likely to be chosen.
 1.10 SUPPLEMENTARY PROBLEMS 69

(a) What is the probability that the chosen machine is a (a) What is the probability that an applicant moves on
new machine with good quality? to the next stage but needs two attempts at the test?
(b) If the chosen machine is new, what is the probability (b) What is the probability that an applicant moves on
that it has good quality? to the next stage?
(c) If an applicant moves on to the next stage, what is
1.10.27 A class has 250 students, 113 of whom are male, and
the probability that he or she passed the test on the
167 of whom are mechanical engineers. There are
first attempt?
52 female students who are not mechanical engineers.
There are 19 female mechanical engineers who are 1.10.31 A fair die is rolled five times. What is the probability
seniors. that the first score is strictly larger than the second score,
(a) If a randomly chosen student is not a mechanical which is strictly larger than the third score, which is
engineer, what is the probability that the student is a strictly larger than the fourth score, which is strictly
male? larger than the fifth score (i.e., the five scores are strictly
(b) If a randomly chosen student is a female mechanical decreasing).
engineer, what is the probability that the student is a
1.10.32 A software engineer makes two backup copies of his
senior?
file, one on a CD and another on a flash drive. Suppose
1.10.28 A business tax form is either filed on time or late, is that there is a probability of 0.05% that the file is
either from a small or a large business, and is either corrupted when it is backed-up onto the CD, and a
accurate or inaccurate. There is an 11% probability that probability of 0.1% that the file is corrupted when it is
a form is from a small business and is accurate and on backed-up onto the flash drive, and that these events are
time. There is a 13% probability that a form is from a independent of each other. What is the probability that
small business and is accurate but is late. There is a 15% the engineer will have at least one uncorrupted copy of
probability that a form is from a small business and is on the file?
time. There is a 21% probability that a form is from a
1.10.33 A warning light in the cockpit of a plane is supposed to
small business and is inaccurate and is late.
indicate when a hydraulic pump is inoperative. If the
(a) If a form is from a small business and is accurate,
pump is inoperative, then there is a probability of 0.992
what is the probability that it was filed on time?
that the warning light will come on. However, there is a
(b) What is the probability that a form is from a large
probability of 0.003 that the warning light will come on
business?
even when the pump is operating correctly. Furthermore,
1.10.29 (a) If four cards are taken at random from a pack of there is a probability of 0.996 that the pump is operating
cards without replacement, what is the probability correctly. If the warning light comes on, what is the
of having exactly two hearts? probability that the pump really is inoperative?
(b) If four cards are taken at random from a pack
1.10.34 A hand of 10 cards is chosen at random without
of cards without replacement, what is the
replacement from a deck of 52 cards. What is the
probability of having exactly two hearts and
probability that the hand contains exactly two aces,
exactly two clubs?
two kings, three queens, and three jacks?
(c) If four cards are taken at random from a pack of
cards without replacement and it is known that there 1.10.35 There are 11 items of a product on a shelf in a retail outlet,
are no clubs, what is the probability that there are and unknown to the customers, 4 of the items are overage.
exactly three hearts? Suppose that a customer takes 3 items at random.
(a) What is the probability that none of the overage
1.10.30 Applicants have a 0.26 probability of passing a test
products are selected by the customer?
when they take it for the first time, and if they pass it
(b) What is the probability that exactly 2 of the items
they can move on to the next stage. However, if they
taken by the customer are overage?
fail the test the first time, they must take the test a
second time, and when applicants take the test for the 1.10.36 Among those people who are infected with a certain
second time there is a 0.43 chance that they will pass virus, 32% have strain A, 59% have strain B, and the
and be allowed to move on to the next stage. Applicants remaining 9% have strain C. Furthermore, 21% of
are rejected if the test is failed on the second attempt. people infected with strain A of the virus exhibit
70 CHAPTER 1 PROBABILITY THEORY

symptoms, 16% of people infected with strain B of the 1.10.37 The marketing division of a company profiles its
virus exhibit symptoms, and 63% of people infected potential customers and grades them as either likely or
with strain C of the virus exhibit symptoms. unlikely purchasers. Overall, 16% of the potential
(a) If a person has the virus and exhibits symptoms customers are graded as likely purchasers. In reality,
of it, what is the probability that they have 81% of the potential customers graded as likely
strain C? purchasers actually make a purchase, while only 9% of
(b) If a person has the virus but doesn’t exhibit any the potential customers graded as unlikely purchasers
symptoms of it, what is the probability that they actually make a purchase. If somebody made a purchase,
have strain A? what is the probability that they had been graded as a
(c) What is the probability that a person who has the likely purchaser?
virus does not exhibit any symptoms of it?

“When solving mysteries like this one, it’s always a question of prior probabilities
and posterior probabilities.” (From Inspector Morimoto and the Two Umbrellas,
by Timothy Hemion)