Vaithilingam 2007
Vaithilingam 2007
Vaithilingam 2007
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JMLC
10,3 Factors affecting money
laundering: lesson for
developing countries
352
Santha Vaithilingam
Department of Econometrics and Statistics, School of Business,
Monash University Malaysia, Petaling Jaya, Malaysia, and
Mahendhiran Nair
School of Business, Monash University Malaysia, Petaling Jaya, Malaysia
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Abstract
Purpose – The primary objective of this paper is to examine the factors that underpin the
pervasiveness of money laundering. An empirical method was used to study the relationship between
technology (information and communication technology infrastructure), quality of human capital,
efficiency of the legal framework, ethical behavior of firms (corporate governance) and capacity for
innovation on the pervasiveness of money laundering in developed and developing countries. Based on
the empirical findings, key strategies and policies to reduce the pervasiveness of money laundering
were examined in this paper.
Design/methodology/approach – The sample period for this study was 2004-2005 entailing
88 developed and developing countries. The ordinary least square method was used in this paper to
examine the impact of the above-mentioned factors on the pervasiveness of money laundering.
Findings – The empirical analysis showed that efficient legal framework with good corporate
governance lower the pervasiveness of money laundering activities. The empirical analysis also
showed that a high-innovative capacity contribute negatively to the pervasiveness of money
laundering activities.
Research limitations/implications – One of the limitations of this study is the lack of quality data
measuring pervasiveness of money laundering patterns over a longer period of time. Over the next two
years, as more data becomes available, a more robust econometric modeling framework called the
dynamic panel data method can be used to assess the impact of the above-mentioned factors on the
pervasiveness of money laundering. This new method will not only capture the factors contributing to
variations of pervasiveness of money laundering across the different countries but also across the time
period.
Practical implications – Strategies to reduce the pervasiveness of money laundering in developing
countries are discussed.
Originality/value – While there are numerous studies in the literature that critically examine factors
that contribute to money laundering, the number of empirical studies that examined the factors that
contribute to money laundering are rather scarce. This study hopes to fill this gap in the literature.
Keywords Money laundering, Corporate governance, Legal principles
Paper type Research paper
1. Introduction
Journal of Money Laundering Control The new global economy fuelled by advances in information and communication
Vol. 10 No. 3, 2007
pp. 352-366 technology (ICT) holds potential benefits and opportunities for countries world wide.
q Emerald Group Publishing Limited
1368-5201
However, these opportunities also have their own challenges. Among these challenges
DOI 10.1108/13685200710763506 include crimes related to the information economy which is seen as an increasing
source of concern within the international financial community. The proceeds from Factors affecting
these crimes are camouflaged to give it a legal appearance and this process is known as money
“money laundering”. The seriousness of money laundering is reflected in the aggregate
volume of funds laundered which has been estimated by the International Monetary laundering
Fund (IMF) to be around 2-5 percent of global gross domestic product.
Money laundering and other financial-related crimes have significant economic and
social consequences for nations worldwide. It weakens the financial systems which 353
are the main players for global financial transactions. This in turn will jeopardize
the socioeconomic development of these nations. For money laundering activities to be
carried out, a medium to launder the illicit funds is required. The preferred medium
chosen by money launderers is the financial institutions (Masciandaro, 1999) due to its
efficiency and its low cost in carrying out financial transactions. These activities taint
the integrity of financial institutions which has a negative impact on the soundness
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and stability of these financial institutions. When the integrity of the financial
institutions is weak, it has a discouraging effect on foreign direct investment due to
lack of investor confidence. This in turn can distort the long-term growth of the
economy. Studies by Quirk (1997), Barrett (1997), Paradise (1998) and Masciandaro and
Portolano (2003) have argued that money laundering threatens economic and financial
systems in countries.
To this extent, to develop a robust economy and sustained standard of living,
countries should undertake all efforts to combat money laundering activities. In this
context, good governance is vital for ensuring the integrity of the financial systems.
Countries across the world have developed laws and regulations to curb money
laundering. Anti-money laundering efforts world-wide were focused on enhancing the
resilience of the financial institutions against money laundering and other related
financial crimes.
While there are numerous studies in the literature that critically examine factors
that contribute to money laundering, the number of empirical studies that examine the
factors that contribute to money laundering are rather scarce. To this end, this study
hopes to fill this gap in the literature. The primary objective of this paper is to examine
and understand the factors that underpin the pervasiveness of money laundering. The
factors considered in this study include technology (ICT infrastructure), quality of
human capital, efficiency of the legal framework, ethical behavior of firms (corporate
governance) and capacity for innovation in the economy. This study will also examine
the relationship between these factors and pervasiveness of money laundering in
selected 88 developed and developing countries using the ordinary least square (OLS)
method. The study was conducted for the following sample period 2004-2005.
The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 briefly discusses the
literature. In Section 3 the empirical framework is discussed. The empirical results are
presented in Section 4 followed by the strategies and initiatives in Section 5. Section 6
provides the conclusion and the future research directions.
2. Literature review
The origins of money laundering can be traced back to as early as 1930s in organized
criminal activities (Bosworth-Davies and Saltmarsh, 1994). As such money laundering
is not a new concept but lately money laundering activities gained momentum and
became a worldwide problem debated widely. In response to this growing concern,
JMLC international agreements were initiated to combat money laundering activities.
10,3 Amongst the main agreements, the UN was the first international organization that
initiated the combating of money laundering globally. Subsequently, the Financial
Action Task Force (FATF) recognized as an international standard setter for
anti-money laundering efforts was established in 1989 by the G-7 Summit in Paris to
implement and monitor effective anti-money laundering programs. More importantly,
354 the FATF has compiled 40 recommendations for money laundering control which
provides a basic framework relevant to all parties involved in the effort to combat
money laundering. According to FATF, money laundering is defined as:
. . . the processing of a large number of criminal acts to generate profit for individual or group
that carries out the act with the intention to disguise their illegal origin in order to
legitimize the ill gotten gains of crime. Any crime that generates significant profit-extortion,
drug trafficking, arms smuggling and some kind of white collar crime may create a “need” for
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laundering is rather scarce. Owing to this gap in the literature, this study will
contribute to the literature by examining the impact of the five factors identified
above on pervasiveness of money laundering in selected developed and developing
countries.
3. Empirical methodology
In this section, the theoretical framework for capturing the pervasiveness of money
laundering via two channels, namely through banks and non-banks in a sample of
88 developed and developing countries is discussed. This is then followed by a
discussion of the econometric method employed to examine the relationship between
the key factors and the pervasiveness of money laundering in these countries. In this
paper, it is assumed that the pervasiveness of money laundering through banks and
non-bank channels are composed of three stages as shown in Figure 1.
Money Laundry
Activity (low)
Y1
Money Laundry
Activity (high)
Figure 1.
Key Drivers (x) Three stages in money
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 laundering activities
(High Incidence) (Declining) (Low)
JMLC The first stage of the money laundering activities refers to countries which are
10,3 characterized by low investment in the key factors of the money laundering activities.
These countries still remain passive and complacent with regards to financial,
economic and political dangers posed by laundering. In this stage of development, the
factors of the money laundering activities namely technology, quality of human
capital, efficiency of the legal framework, ethical behavior of firms and capacity for
356 innovation are usually weak and ineffective. Investments in the factors are low; hence
result in high-money laundering activities.
The second stage represents the countries where the pervasiveness of money
laundering improves rapidly due to efforts taken to improve the quality and quantity
of the factors of the money laundering activities namely technology, quality of human
capital, efficiency of the legal framework, ethical behavior of firms and capacity for
innovation. Improvements in the key drivers which include implementation of laws
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and regulations tend to decrease the money laundering activities. New technology and
new financial instruments together with good integrity system reduce money
laundering activities.
The third stage represents matured financial sectors where the factors of the money
laundering activities namely technology, quality of human capital, efficiency of the
legal framework, ethical behavior of firms and capacity for innovation are highly
developed hence the prevalence of money laundering is low.
The pervasiveness of money laundering activities can be modeled using the logistic
function:
ys
Yt ¼ ð1Þ
1 þ ae f ðx;bÞþm
where Yt is the pervasiveness of money laundering through banks and non-bank, ys is
the upper limit of Yt (refer to Table I). The factors that have an impact 0
on money
laundering are denoted by the design matrix where X ¼ [X1,X2,X3,X4,X5] (the factors
are defined in Table I) and b is the factor that capture the marginal return of the factors
on the pervasiveness of money laundering. Equation (1) can be re-written as:
*
Y ¼ f ðx0 bÞ þ u ð2Þ
where:
* Yt
Y ¼ ln
Ys 2 Yt
and u is the residual.
The impact of the factors on the pervasiveness of money laundering will be
examined using the following regression model:
Model 1:
*
X
k
Y ¼ b0 þ b i X i þ ui ð3Þ
i¼1
Model 2:
Factors affecting
Variables Description Proxy
money
Infrastructure (X1) Facilitate connectivity to the Number of internet users laundering
(internet users per 10,000
global economy that is access to
ICT facilities inhabitants, 2003)
Intellectual capital (X2) Knowledge workers’ Quality of the educational
system (1 ¼ does not meet the 357
needs of a competitive economy,
7 ¼ meets the needs of a
competitive economy).
Institutions (X3) Legal and regulatory framework Efficiency of legal framework
that facilitate the knowledge (1 ¼ is inefficient and subject to
economy manipulation, 7 ¼ is efficient
and flows a clear, neutral
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process)
Integrity (X4) Governance systems (corporate Ethical behavior of firms
governance) (1 ¼ among the world’s worst,
7 ¼ among the world’s best)
Innovation (X5) R&D and new product Capacity for innovation
development (1 ¼ exclusively from licensing
or imitating foreign companies,
7 ¼ by conducting formal
research and pioneering their
own new products and
processes)
Pervasiveness of money Money laundering through Pervasiveness of money
laundering through banks and banks and non-banks channels laundering through banks and
non-banks channels banks ( y) banks non-bank channels (where the
ranking for the pervasiveness of
money laundering ranges
between 1 and 7 with
1 ¼ pervasive denoting very
high occurrence of money Table I.
laundering and 7 ¼ extremely The factors and the
rare denoting very low incidence dependent variable
of money laundering) include
*
X
k
Y ¼ b0 þ bi X i þ d o D 1 þ u i ð4Þ
i¼1
Model 3:
*
X
k X
k
Y ¼ b0 þ bi X i þ d o D 1 þ di ðD1 £ X i Þ þ ui ð5Þ
i¼1 i¼1
where D1, is the dummy variable for developed countries (D1 ¼ 1 if developed and 0
otherwise); do, is the slope coefficient for the dummy variable; di, is the slope coefficient
which captures the marginal effects of the 5Xs on the pervasiveness of money
laundering in developed countries and developing countries; ui, is the error term.
JMLC The first model which is a general model (equation (3)) considers the factors which
10,3 include technology, quality of human capital, efficiency of the legal framework, ethical
behavior of firms and capacity for innovation on the pervasiveness of money
laundering. The second model (equation (4)) includes an intercept dummy variable that
controls for developed and developing countries. Lastly the third model (equation (5))
includes the intercept and slope dummy variable. This will enable the model to capture
358 the marginal effects of the factors on the pervasiveness of money laundering in
developed and developing countries.
An underlying assumption of OLS is that the residuals of the model are normally
distribution with mean 0 and variance s 2 I T (homoskedastic), that is ui , N ð0; s 2 I T Þ.
As such, equation (2) can be estimated using OLS method. However, if the residuals are
heteroskesdastic and the generalized least squares method (The White-Estimator) is
employed as the OLS estimator will be inefficient.
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Several statistical diagnostic tests were carried out to ensure the estimates were
robust. Multicollinearity test was conducted using the variance inflation factor (VIF)
method. A maximum VIF value exceeding 10 will indicate that multicollinearity will
lead to biased estimators. Parameter stability test was carried out to ensure the model
was correctly specified. The residuals of the estimated model were subjected to the
heteroskedastic test and Jarque-Bera normality test. This is to ascertain if the residuals
satisfied the standard regularity assumptions (homoskedastic and normally
distributed).
In this study, secondary data were collected for 88 developing and developed
countries (Appendix) for the period 2004-2005 from The Global Competitiveness Report
2004-2005 (Cournelius et al., 2005). It should be noted that data availability for more
than one period for some of these variables were not reported. As such this study is
limited to only one year to maintain consistency in the variables. Money laundering
activities transfer funds via two channels, namely via the banking channel or non-bank
financial institutions. Table I provides a description of the factors and the
pervasiveness of money laundering.
5.000
(in thousands)
4,115 4,057
4.000
3.000 359
2.000
1,500
982
1.000
18
0 Figure 2.
Mean Minimum Maximum Infrastructure
development in developed
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3.00
2.00 Figure 3.
1.00
Developments in quality
of human capital (X2),
0.00 efficiency of the legal
framework (X3), ethical
g
5
rin
money laundering in
M
statistic is within two standard deviations. Hence, the model is correctly specified at
the 5 percent significance level. The Jarque-Bera normality test showed that the
residuals of the estimated equations are normally distributed. The VIF statistics for all
the factors were below 10, indicating that multicollinearity was not a major problem for
the regression models in equations (3)-(5).
Based on the adjusted R 2, Model 3 recorded the highest value of 0.818. As such
Model 3 was selected to be the best model and the interpretation below was based on
Model 3. Using Model 3, the marginal effect of the factors on pervasiveness of money
laundering in developed and developing countries was also studied. However, it can be
noted that in all three models, efficiency of the legal framework (X3) and ethical
behavior of firms (X4) had a positive and significant effect on the pervasiveness of
money laundering at the 5 percent level of significance.
The empirical results showed that technology (X1) has a negative but an
insignificant effect on the pervasiveness of money laundering. The negative results
JMLC
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
10,3
Constant 2 1.589(0.000) 2 1.514(0.000) 21.397(0.000)
X1 4.29 £ 102 05(0.143) 2.09 £ 102 05(0.527) 23.83 £ 102 05(0.396)
X2 2 0.0316(0.500) 2 0.0308(0.509) 0.0784(0.238)
X3 0.167(0.0032) * 0.158(0.0052) * 0.140(0.046) * *
360 X4 0.396(0.000) * 0.395(0.000) * 0.429(0.000) *
X5 2 0.0593(0.233) 2 0.072(0.153) 20.228(0.017) * *
D1 0.151(0.170) 20.0819(0.869)
D1X1 0.000132(0.059) * * *
D1X2 20.179(0.098) * * *
D1X3 20.0705(0.575)
D1X4 0.0784(0.684)
D1X5 0.158(0.169)
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implies that although the internet is the basic environment enabling new payment
technologies such as internet banking, digital money and smart cards, this medium is
also prone to fraud and breach as it permits anonymity. Money launderers have the
opportunity to exploit the “secrecy haven” and the weaknesses in the internet bank
internal controls, by using this delivery channel to conduct their financial transactions.
However, the insignificance of X1 could be due to the fact that internet banking has not
been widely used in developing countries.
The marginal return of technology for developed countries is positive and
significantly higher than for developing countries at the 10 percent level. This implies
that technology that is ICT infrastructure in developed countries seems to reduce the
pervasiveness of money laundering more than in developing countries. This result
provides evidence that developed ICT infrastructure and ICT adoption rates in
developed countries seem to instill more transparent process, hence, reducing the
pervasiveness of money laundering.
The quality of human capital (X2) seems to have a positive effect in reducing the
pervasiveness of money laundering. However, the impact of quality of human capital
on money laundering was not found to be significant at the 10 percent significant level.
This is attributed to the fact that most of the front-end financial transactions are
user-friendly technology, and as such, people with diverse educational background
are able to use the financial services easily. The marginal effect of the dummy variable
with X2 has a negative significant impact on the pervasiveness of money laundering at
the 10 percent level. This negative relationship is attributed to the fact that in
developing countries, a small increase in X2 will improve the level of money laundering
much higher than in developed countries. This is due to the fact that the stock of X2 is
low for developing countries as compared to developed countries.
Efficiency of the legal framework (X3) and ethical behavior of firms (X4) Factors affecting
have a positive and significant effect on the pervasiveness of money laundering at money
the 5 and 1 percent level of significance, respectively. The empirical analysis showed
that differences in the efficiency level of the legal framework among the developed and laundering
developing countries contribute to pervasiveness of money laundering activities. The
positive relationship shows evidence that when there is efficiency of the legal
framework that is legal and regulatory framework which is effective and independent, 361
money laundering activities are less pervasive. This is in line with the findings in the
literature where international bodies were set up to undertake combating money
laundering activities. Marginal returns for X3 and X4 are insignificant and this implies
that both X3 and X4 are vital for both developing and developed countries.
Lastly the empirical analysis indicated that capacity for innovation (X5) had a
negative and significant impact on the pervasiveness of money laundering at the
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5 percent level. This suggests that countries that invest in enhancing innovation can
increase the pervasiveness of money laundering activities as opportunities are opened
up for money laundering activities via the new technology. New technology can lead to
market failure such as tunneling where various mechanisms to transfer large sum of
money are easily devised without being detected. New technological innovation
provide easy avenue to channel funds to multiple accounts in a host of different
sources, thus providing a conducive environment for money laundering operations.
The problem is further compounded by poor regulating supervision. Marginal return
for innovation X5 was insignificant and this implies that X5 has the same impact for
both developing and developed countries.
In summary, the above analysis indicates that among the five factors, efficiency
of the legal framework and ethical behavior of the firms are vital in reducing the
level of money laundering globally. Impact of quality of human capital on the other
hand is more prevalent in developing countries. Technology seems to have a greater
impact on developed countries than developing countries. Evidence shows that
capacity for innovation has a negative impact on the pervasiveness of money
laundering.
seriously by developing nations. The FATF (2001) has reported the following
suggestions:
.
require internet service providers (ISPs) to maintain reliable subscriber registers
with appropriate identification information;
.
require ISPs to establish log files with traffic data relating to internet-protocol
number to subscriber and to telephone number used in the connection;
.
require that this information be maintained for a reasonable period (six months
to a year);
.
ensure that this information be made available internationally in a timely
manner when conducting criminal investigations; and
.
to have good systems to improve customer identification and record-keeping
so as to facilitate identification and reporting of any suspicious transactions
especially in the case of multiple transactions (FATF recommendation 11).
To this extent, developed countries must provide the necessary support to developing
364 countries with respect to finance, resources, technical support and training programs.
Without this support, it will be a challenge for these developing countries to combat
money laundering activities.
behavior of firms (corporate governance) and capacity for innovation in the economy
on the pervasiveness of money laundering in a sample of developed and developing
countries. The empirical analysis showed that efficient legal framework with good
corporate governance lower the pervasiveness of money laundering activities and a
high-innovative capacity contribute negatively to the pervasiveness of money
laundering activities.
The empirical analysis also showed that the developments of the five factors in
developing countries were significantly lower than that in developed countries.
Strategies and initiatives for combating money laundering activities between
developed and the developing countries were discussed in this paper.
This research provides insights into the key factors that need to be addressed in
combating money laundering activities. This research can be further improved if the
dynamics between money laundering and the factors can be modeled using a
cross-sectional time-series model (panel data analysis). This will provide a more robust
estimation of the relationship between money laundering activities and the factors,
thus enhancing the formulation of policies that will prevent money laundering
activities in these countries. However, it should be noted that there has been difficulty
in obtaining quality and consistent data over a longer-time period. In addition, future
research could also focus on benchmarking countries with regards to money
laundering using a more robust econometric method.
Note
1. The recursive plots are not provided in this paper but can be obtained from the author upon
request.
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Corresponding author
Santha Vaithilingam can be contacted at: [email protected]
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