Special Report Dune 4 2018
Special Report Dune 4 2018
Special Report Dune 4 2018
S P E C I A L R E P O R T
The
Geopolitics
of Dune
THE GEOPOLITICS OF DUNE
I
t took a long time for geopolitics to reach the void of outer
space. Space, after all, is the absence of geography. Space
is almost uniformly lifeless, expansive and unforgiving.
But geopolitics is the study of people in place, and people are
indomitable, never content to stay where they are. From caves
to waterways, humans in their earliest days defied everything
that sought to confine them. They put their finest minds to the
task at hand, developing the tools they needed to get them
where they wanted to go. Eventually, they wanted to go to the
heavens. So they did. The need to expand ever outward culmi-
nated in the discovery of faster-than-light travel, which pushed
the very boundaries of their known universe.
We now know how mistaken that saying was. But such is the
nature of hindsight. No one knew at the time that the petty
machinations for the spice’s control would lead to revolution
on a galactic scale. Neither the Mentats, those bred to think
like computers after the prohibition against artificial intelli-
gence, nor the Bene Gesserit, with their legendary intuition, nor
the Spacing Guild, and its monopoly on interstellar transporta-
tion, nor Princess Irulan herself, who documented her husband
Paul Atreides’ life, could have predicted what would eventually
transpire.
was held. House Atreides was a threat because it did not need
the thing that the rest of the imperium needed.
Arrakis
The alliance was made possible by the governing style of the
emperor and of House Harkonnen, which, again, were a conse-
quence of their geopolitical positions. The emperor and House
Harkonnen looked at Arrakis as a resource to be exploited and
coveted. The Spacing Guild thought much the same way. Only
a house based on a rich planet could look at Arrakis and see
something profoundly different: a potentially prosperous plan-
et that could use the spice to go from being a backwater to the
center of the imperium.
And yet there is another part of the population that the emper-
or and House Harkonnen underestimated: the Fremen. With
small safe houses called sietches placed throughout Arrakis,
the Fremen were able to evade capture and subjugation. The
Fremen were not native to Arrakis; they came to Arrakis to
practice their religion free from persecution. In so doing, they
adapted their way of life and their religious beliefs to the harsh
environment around them, taking on many of the beliefs that
are associated with messianic movements in early Earth his-
tory. Because Arrakis was so poor, tribal life became the pre-
dominant way of life. There was not enough for individuals to
have whatever they wanted. And because the Fremen craved
isolation and freedom above all else, they never considered
monetizing the spice or turning it into an instrument of impe-
rial control. They were content to gather the water they bribed
the Spacing Guild not to reveal, hoarding it in such a way that
one day Arrakis might become a true home – a home out of
reach from the imperium if the spice were destroyed.
It was this blind spot that crippled the emperor and the Harkon-
nens more than anything else. The emperor looked at Arrakis
and saw Salusa Secundus. The baron looked at Arrakis and
saw Giedi Prime. Duke Leto, and later Paul Muad’Dib, looked at
Arrakis and saw Arrakis.
Future Uncertain
What happened next is well documented. The Atreides were
betrayed and murdered. Paul Atreides joined the Fremen, be-
came Paul Muad’Dib, avenged his family and usurped the em-
peror.
House Atreides now dominates all other houses. But its posi-
tion is precarious. House Atreides was able to defeat House
Harkonnen and the emperor primarily because it was willing to
destroy the spice, which would have stripped the emperor and
the baron of their traditional allies. This could not have been
done without the Fremen, of course, but the Fremen-Caladan
alliance is hardly ironclad.
There are two key challenges that the new emperor now faces.
The first is that in the same way that the Fremen hoard water,
the Harkonnens stashed massive amounts of spice for almost
20 years. That means that spice production cannot be halted,
because if House Atreides is to defeat its enemies, it must con-
tinue to fold space to eliminate the Harkonnen spice reserves.
House Harkonnen – and any other houses it can recruit to its
cause – can carry out a low-level insurgency against House
Atreides for years, perhaps even long enough to bleed Paul
Muad’Dib dry and retake Arrakis.
The second is that in the battle for Arrakis, Paul Muad’Dib re-
sorted to the use of atomics to blow a hole in the shield wall.
At the time, it was the coup de grace of the Fremen invasion
of Arrakeen and their defeat of the emperor’s Sardaukar. But
atomics had not been used in a human conflict for thousands
of years. The principles of mutually assured destruction still
applied. House Harkonnen possesses atomics, and though it
would not dare use them on Arrakis for fear of damaging the
spice, the precedent has been set, so there is little to prevent
the Harkonnens from using atomics elsewhere, including on
Caladan, and potentially laying siege to Arrakis with a com-
bined alliance of great houses until Paul Muad’Dib’s surrender
might be forced.
“He who can destroy a thing controls a thing.” This is what Paul
Muad’Dib said to the emperor and the Harkonnens as he was
taking power. At the time,
it was true. But geopol-
Its control over the spice depends itics cannot be ignored,
not even by someone
on transforming Arrakis into a as uniquely capable as
Paul Muad’Dib. Geopol-
paradise for its Fremen allies –
itics dictates that these
which will destroy the very thing great houses will always
be enemies. Geopolitics
that gives it power and could make
dictated that House Cor-
enemies of its current allies. rino and House Harkon-
nen would be blinded by
the spice and, in their
blindness, create the
conditions for their own demise. But geopolitics also dictates
that House Atreides, having taken control of the spice, is now
in a similar position. It depends on the spice to maintain the fe-
alty of great houses and the Spacing Guild, and yet its control
over the spice depends on transforming Arrakis into a paradise
for its Fremen allies – which will destroy the very thing that
gives it power and could make enemies of its current allies.
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