Double Calendar Spreads
Double Calendar Spreads
Double Calendar Spreads
Maximum Gain
Like normal calendar spreads, it is impossible to know the maximum gain and the best
we can do is estimate it.
This is because we don’t know what the value of the back-month options will be when
the front month expires due to changes in implied volatility.
In out MSFT example, we can see that the maximum gain is estimated at around
$1,050 at a price of $175 and $1,210 at $200.
This could be higher if implied volatility on the September options has risen, or it could
be lower if implied volatility has fallen.
Breakeven Price
Like the maximum gain, the exact breakeven price can’t actually be calculated but we
can estimate it.
Looking the MSFT example, we can see that the breakeven points are estimated at
$171.11 and $204.65.
Payoff Diagram
Double calendar spreads have a dual tent shaped payoff diagram.
Each profit zone is centred over the strikes used in the trade.
If we were to place the strikes further away from the current price of the underlying it
would result in a larger valley in the middle of the two peaks.
This example shows how a double calendar would looks if we used 160 and 210 as the
strikes rather than 175 and 200.
Notice there is a large “valley of death” in the middle of the spread. This is ok if you
think the stock will not be trading in exactly the same place at expiration.
This sort of set up can also be a good way to hedge iron condors which do well when
stocks stay neutral.
The other difference with this wider spread is that the trade costs a lot less. Around
$2,000 in this case compared with $3,620 in the earlier example.
Instead of widening the double calendar, let’s bring the strikes in a little closer to 180
and 195.
Here we get another different looking trade with no valley of death at all.
In this case, it is much more of a neutral trade.
If for some reason the underling stock makes a big move and the trader fails to close
out the trade, it actually becomes negative theta and starts to lose money through time
decay. The red arrows below indicate where this occurs.
However, you should never let your trade get to this position and it should be adjusted
or closed long before then.
Delta
Double calendars can be structured to be neutral, positive delta, or negative delta.
Our MSFT example starts with delta of +14 even though the strikes are placed almost
an equal distance from the stock price.
Below you can see that by moving the strikes to 165 and 190 we have skewed the trade
to the downside with negative delta.
This isn’t the normal setup, as most traders will place the strikes roughly an equal
distance from the stock price, however it could certainly be traded this way if the trader
had a significant bearish bias.
The same thing can be done on the upside if the trader has a strong bullish bias.
Gamma
Calendar spreads are negative gamma trades and that is also the case with the double
calendar variety.
Generally, any trade that has a profit tent above the zero line will be negative gamma
because they will benefit from stable prices.
Gamma is one of the lesser known greeks and usually, not as important as the others.
I say usually, in this post I explain why it can be really important to understand gamma
risk.
Calendar spreads maintain a bit of a natural hedge because they are negative gamma,
but positive vega.
The ideal scenario is that implied volatility rises (good for positive Vega) but realized
volatility remains low (good for negative Gamma).
In other words, you want the stock to stay relatively flat, but show a rise in implied
volatility (the expectation of future big price moves).
Just like with theta, if the stock makes a big move outside the profit tents, gamma can
switch. In this case switching from negative to positive.
Risks
It goes without saying that as a range bound trade, we have a risk that the price of the
underlying will rise or fall sharply causing an unrealized loss, or a realized loss if we
close the trade.
Some other risks associated with double calendar spreads:
Assignment Risk
We talked about this already so won’t go into to much detail here and while this doesn’t
happen often it can theoretically happen at any point during the trade.
The risk is most acute when a stock trades ex-dividend.
If the stock is trading well below the sold call, the risk of assignment is very low. E.g. a
trader would generally not exercise his right to buy MSFT at $200 when MSFT is trading
at $188 purely to receive a $0.50 dividend.
The risk is highest if the stock is trading ex-dividend and the short call is in the money.
One way to avoid assignment risk is to trade stocks that don’t pay dividends, or trade
indexes that are European style and cannot be exercised early.
However, this should not be the primary factor when determining which underlying
instrument to trade.
Otherwise, think about closing your trade before the ex-dividend date if one of the short
options is close to being in-the-money.
Expiration Risk
Leading into expiration, if the stock is trading right around either the short options, the
trader has expiration risk.
The risk here is that the trader might get assigned and then the stock makes an adverse
movement before he has had a chance to cover the assignment.
In this case, the best way to avoid this risk is to simply close out the spread before
expiry.
Volatility Risk
As mentioned on the section on the greeks, this is a positive vega strategy meaning the
position benefits from a rise in implied volatility.
If volatility falls after trade initiation, the position will likely suffer losses.
The other risk with volatility relates to the volatility curve.
Generally speaking, when volatility rises or falls it has a similar impact across all
expiration periods.
However, you could potentially run into a scenario where volatility in the front month
rises (bad for the short options) and volatility in the back month drops (bad for the long
options).
That would result in a double whammy for the trade.
That scenario may not be common but it could happen and it’s important that traders
understand volatility term structure when placing trades that span different expiration
periods.
Trade Management
Getting in to a trade is the easy part, how you manage the trade is much harder, but
let’s look at some simple rules you can use to help you manage your double calendar
trades.
As with all trading strategies, it’s important to plan out in advance exactly how you are
going to manage the trade in any scenario.
What will you do if the stock rallies? What about if it drops? Where will you take profits?
Where and how will you adjust? When will you get stopped out?
Lots to consider here but let’s look at some of the basics of how to manage double
calendar spreads.
Profit Target
First and foremost, it’s important to have a profit target.
That might be 30% of the capital being risked in the trade or you may plan on holding to
expiration provided the stock stays within the profit zone.
That’s the first decision.
Another question to ask would be how long do you plan on holding the trade if neither
your profit target or stop loss have been hit? Can you incorporate a time exit into your
trading strategy?
Another profit taking rule you might consider is – closing when the short options drop to
$0.10.
Sometimes the opportunity cost of tying up your margin for the sake of squeezing the
last few dollars out of the trade is not worth it.
Stop Loss
Having a stop loss is also important, perhaps more so than the profit target.
With calendar spreads, you can set a stop loss based on percentage of the capital at
risk.
Some traders like to set a stop loss at 20% of capital at risk. Others might set it as 50%.
If your profit target is 50% and your stop loss is 50%, then any success rate greater
than 50% will see you come out ahead.
Then it’s just a numbers game and making sure you have enough trades to make sure
the statistics play out.
Whatever you decide, make sure it is written down and mapped out in your trading plan.
Adjustments
With double calendar spreads, I like to adjust before the stock reaches the breakeven
price or slightly before.
Once the stock gets past the break even price, losses can start to run away from you if
the stock keeps trending in that direction.
If the stock reaches the break even price and my stop loss has not been hit, I usually
move the whole double calendar or just once side depending on the situation.
In other rare cases I might add a third calendar spread to widen out the profit zone,
provided it’s within my plan to add more capital to the trade.
FAQ
What Is A Double Calendar Spread?
A double calendar spread is an options trading strategy that involves buying and selling
two calendar spreads simultaneously.
A calendar spread involves buying a longer-term option and selling a shorter-term
option at the same strike price.
By buying and selling two calendar spreads with different strike prices, a trader can
potentially profit from the passage of time and volatility changes, while limiting their risk.
Summary
Double calendar spreads are a nice addition to an option income trader’s arsenal
because they are positive vega and can achieve big profits if the stock ends near either
of the strikes.
This type of trade can also be used to hedge exposure on iron condors.
Given that the position contains options across multiple expiration dates, it’s important
to have a solid grasp of implied volatility including how volatility changes impact options
with different expiration periods.
The maximum loss is limited to the premium paid to enter the trade, but the maximum
gain is unknown because of changes in implied volatility.
Double calendars can be traded using longer-term bought options which allows the
trader to sell multiple months’ worth of calls and puts against the long options.
While double calendars are a positive vega strategy, traders still want the stock to stay
within the specified range during the course of the trade.
Trade safe!