Theory Content-Statistics
Theory Content-Statistics
Theory Content-Statistics
36 Find the mean of the given sets of data: 10, 12, 15, 28, 25, 35,45,8,
12, and 10
a. 25 b. 10 c. 20 d. 15
105 The 3 yearly moving average for the year 2005 is given by _______.
Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Y 3 6 9 3 4
a. 3 b. 9 c. 6 d. 0
106 For the given data semi averages for the first half is given by
_______.
Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Y 20 16 9 11 40 23 21 12
a. 13 b. 15 c. 16 d. 14
107 For the straight-line equation Y= 56+12X, the trend value for X=-3
is given by _____.
a. 23 b. 36 c. 20 d. 68
108 For the given data short term fluctuations for the year 2013 by
using additive model is given by _______.
Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Y 80 90 92 83 94
Trend value 84 86 88 90 92
a. 4 b. -4 c. 0.95 d. -0.95
109 For the given data short term fluctuations for the year 2014 by
using Multiplicative model is given by _______.
Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Y 80 90 92 83 94
Trend value 84 86 88 90 92
a. 1.046 b. -1.046 c. -4 d. 1
110 Shortage of certain consumer goods before annual budget is due to
a. Secular trend b. Irregular variation
c. Seasonal variation d. Cyclical variation
111 Linear trend of a time series indicates towards.
a. Constant rate of growth b. Constant rate of
change
b. Change in geometric progression d. All the above
112 The method of moving average is used to find the
a. Seasonal trend b. Irregular trend
c. Secular trend d. Cyclical trend
113 If trend is absent in the data, then ________method is used of
computing seasonal indices.
a. Ratio to trend b. Simple Average
c. Semi average d. Ratio to moving
average
114 The method of least squares indicates that we choose the regression
line where the sum of the square of deviations of the points from the
line is.
a. positive b. Maximum c. Zero d.
Minimum
115 Variations in a time series are caused by sale of air condition
increase during summer.
a. Seasonal b. Irregular c. Secular d.
Cyclic
116 Trend in a time series means.
a. Long-term regular movement b. Short-term regular
movement
c. Both (a) and (b) d. Neither (a)
nor (b)
117 A time series is a set of data recorded.
a. At successive points of time b. Periodically
c. At time or space intervals d. All the above
118 Which of the following is not present in a time series?
a. Seasonality b. Operational variations c. Trend
d. Cycle
119 A lock-out in a factory for a month belongs to _______ component of
a time series.
a. Irregular variation b. Secular
trend
c. Cyclical variation d. None of
these
120 The sales of departmental store on Dashera and Diwali are
associated with the component of a time series _________ variation.
a. Trend b. Seasonal c. Irregular d.
Cyclical
121 The consistent increase in production of cereals constitutes the
component of a time series ________.
a. Seasonal Variation b. Cyclical
Variation
c. Secular Trend d. None of
these
122 Secular trend is indicative of long-term variation towards
___________.
a. Increase only b. Decrease
only
c. Either increase or decrease d. None of
these
123 Irregular variations in a time series are caused by ___________.
a. Lockouts and strikes b. Epidemics
c. Floods d. All the above
124 Least Square method to estimate trend line in Time series consists
of estimating _______ constants.
a. Zero b. Two c. Less than two d. More
than two.
125 Simple average method is used to find ________.
a. Seasonal Variation b. Cyclic
Variation
c. Secular trend d. None of
these
126 Most frequently used mathematical model of time series is
__________ model.
a. Additive b. Multiplicative c. Mixed d.
Regression
127 When the values in a series do not have equal importance, we
calculate the _______.
a. Mode b. Weighted mean
c. Arithmetic mean d. None of the above
128 Percentiles divide a series into ______.
a. Ten equal parts b. Twenty equal parts
c. Fifty equal parts d. Hundred equal
parts
129 What does the standard deviation measure?
a. The spread of a data set.
b. How much a data set is spread from its mean.
c. How much a data set is spread from another data set or the
mean of another data set.
d. None of the above
130 The measurements of spread or scatter of the individual values
around the central point is called:
a. Measures of dispersion b. Measures of
central tendency
c. Measures of skewness d. Measures of
kurtosis
131 The measures used to calculate the variation present among the
observations relative to their average is called:
a. Coefficient of kurtosis b. Absolute measures of
dispersion
c. Quartile deviation d. Relative measures of
dispersion
132 The degree to which numerical data tend to spread about an
average value called:
a. Constant b. Flatness c. Variation d.
Skewness
133 Given below the four sets of observations. Which set has the
minimum variation?
a. 46, 48, 50, 52, 54 b. 30, 40, 50, 60, 70
c. 40, 50, 60, 70, 80 d. 48, 49, 50, 51, 52
134 Which of the following is an absolute measure of dispersion?
a. Coefficient of variation b. Coefficient of
dispersion
c. Standard deviation d. Coefficient of
skewness
135 The measure of dispersion which uses only two observations is
called:
a. Mean b. Median c. Range d. Coefficient of
variation
136 The range of the scores 29, 3, 143, 27, 99 is:
a. 140 b. 143 c. 146 d.
70
137 Half of the difference between upper and lower quartiles is called:
a. Interquartile range b. Quartile deviation
b. Mean deviation d. Standard deviation
138 process by which we estimate the value of dependent variable on
the basis of one or more independent variables is called:
a. Correlation b. Regression c. Residual d. Slope
139 Coefficient of correlation in case of frequency distribution could not
be calculated in case of
a. Karl Pearson b. Spearman
c. Least square method d. None of the above
140 Which of the following are methods under measures of dispersion?
a. Standard deviation b. Mean deviation
c. Range d. All of the above
141 The range represents _________.
a. The lowest number
b. The highest number
c. The middle number
d. The difference between the lowest and highest number
142 The square of standard deviation is ________.
a. Square deviation b. Mean square
deviation
c. Variance d. None of the above
143 A study in Statistics that helps to interpret the variability of data is
knowns as _________
a. Standard Deviation b. The measurer of Central
tendency
c. The measures of dispersion d. None of the above
144 Which Measures of Dispersion are used to compare the distribution
of two or more data sets?
a. Absolute Measure of Dispersion
b. A Relative Measure of Dispersion
c. Coefficient of Dispersion
d. None of these
145 In absolute Measure of Dispersion, the Square root of variation is
known as ____
a. Mean Deviation b. Quartile Deviation
c. Variance d. Standard
Deviation
146 Which of these is simply the difference between the maximum and
minimum values given in a data set?
a. Range b. Mean Deviation
c. Standard Deviation d. All of these
147 What is the Arithmetic average of the Absolute Deviation of a series
called?
a. Coefficient of Mean Deviation b. Mean Deviation
c. Quartile Deviation d. Standard
Deviation
148 Are the variations present in the unit of a variable represented by
which dispersion method?
a. Coefficient of Variation
b. A relative measure of dispersion
c. The absolute measure of dispersion
d. Measure of dispersion
149 Which is the quickest measure of dispersion to compute?
a. Mean deviation b. Range
c. Variance d. Coefficient of
Range
150 Calculate Range from the following data
75, 29, 96, 15, 7, 8, 11, 7, 4, 9
a. 90 b. 92 c. 95 d. 98
151 Calculate Coefficient of Range from the following data
75, 29, 96, 15, 7, 8, 11, 7, 4, 9
b. 0.90 b. 0.92 c. 0.95 d. 0.98
152 Which of the following are characteristics of a good measure of
dispersion?
a. It should be easy to calculate
b. It should be based on all the observations within a series
c. It should not be affected by the fluctuations within the
sampling
d. All of the above
Function of statistics
1. To present facts in definite form: facts are expressed in numbers
easily understood. Statement of facts expressed in quantitative term
are not convincing than a vague utterance. Eg: during recent floods
there was heavy loss to agriculture. This statement is not clear, but if
it is stated that during flood crops worth 10 lakhs was destroyed is
clearer.
2. Simplifies the data: the function of statistical method is to
simplifying large mass of numerical data and present them in a more
intelligible form. Statistical methods help in reducing complex data
into simple figures which can be interpreted more accurately i.e it
helps in simplifying complex data so as to make them understandable.
The methods used are methods of central tendency, dispersion etc.
3. Comparison: after simplifying the data, it can be correlated and
compared. Stats enables impartial and fair comparison of data across
a wide range of competing alternatives. The relationship between two
groups is best presented by statistical devices like averages etc.
4. Formulation and testing of hypothesis: it means something to be
tested or proved statistical method are extremely useful in formulating
and testing of hypothesis and to discover new theory stats has
developed with its own theories, principles, methodology which can be
used to answer specific queries. A statistician can take the help of
stats and use sampling techniques and principles to arrive at a
decision. whether chloromycetin is effective in curing typhoid, whether
students are benefited by coaching? Etc.
5. Helps in prediction /forecasting: statistical methods are very useful
tool in attempting to forecast the future forecasting means making
estimates for future based on past and present behaviour.
Eg: if an investor wishes to purchase shares of reliance industry, he
can use statistics to find whether the share prices are likely to
increase or decrease. He can use correlation and regression methods
to know the impact of some key factor on the performance of the
company and then take a decision
6. Helps in policy formulation and decision making: with the help of
statistics the government can frame suitable policies.
Eg: data about population, its distribution by age and gender helps
the govt in determining the future needs such as food, clothing,
housing, educational facilities, water etc. similarly detailed info on the
unemployed person their qualification, experience etc. will help the
govt in framing policies to tackle unemployment problem.
7. To study relationship between various phenomena: statistics
enable to observe and understand the relationship between different
facts/phenomena. Eg: relationship between demand and supply,
rainfall and agricultural production can be best measured with the
help of statistical method like correlation.
8. Enlarge individual experience: the function of stats is to large
human experience and knowledge. statistics make it easier for a man
to understand, describe and measure the impact of any action. It
improves scientific facts without stats man may not be able to acquire
knowledge quickly and he may not take long time to bring drastic
changes. statistics helps in solving problems in various fields like
political, economic, social or cultural.
9. Measures uncertainty: statistics helps to take decision on the face of
uncertainty and study the chance of accuracy of certain events. it also
helps in finding out the impact of happening of an event. It helps
mankind to cope with uncertainty.
10. Measures the effect: statistics helps not only in formulating a policy
but also help in measuring the effect of a policy. Statistics act as
guide. Eg: the effect of change in bank rate, tax rate can be studied
with the help of stats.
11. To classify the data: statistical methods help to arrange data
according to common features. This facilitates analysis and
comparison.
12. To draw valid inferences: in fields of business and economics many
times rational and valid conclusion are drawn by collecting and
analysing available facts.
Meaning
Statistics stands for the science of collection, presentation, analysis
and interpretation of numerical data.
Achenwall, (father of statistics), defined statistics as “The political
science of the several centuries”. In the early years ‘statistics’ connoted a
collection of facts about the State or the people in the State for
administrative and political purposes.
Limitation of statistics
1. Statistics does not study qualitative aspect: statistics are
numerical statement of facts. It can be applied only to such problems
that can be measured quantitatively. statistics cannot be used directly
for the study of qualitative characteristics such as honesty, beauty,
intelligence, health, culture etc. however it may be possible to analyse
the characteristics indirectly. E.g.: we can study intelligence of
students on the basis of marks secured by them in examination.
2. Statistics does not reveal entire study: statistical analysis may
focus on only certain aspects of the study and may not bring to light
the entire story. Eg: opposition in USA, to outsourcing jobs in India is
justified citing statistics on job losses. However, if the demographic
profile of USA is studied one finds that America is actually heading for
an era of shortage of personnel. a good statistician must recognize the
need to consider all facts and complete story rather than rely on a few
tools of statistical analysis.
3. No cause and effect relationship: statistics does not necessarily
bring the cause and effect relationship between various parameters.
The investigator needs to apply judgement to determine the
relationship between the parameters. E.g.: if sales and advertisement
expenditure of an organization is studied, it does not tell that there
cause and effect relationship between the two. If fact regression
techniques can be applied to find out what would be the
advertisement expenditure for a given figure of sales. This may not be
practical as sales does not directly cause impact on advertisement.
4. Statistics can be used by expert only: statistical technique is not so
simple to be used by any layman. The technique being complicated in
nature can be used only by experts knowing the application of
statistical methodologies Otherwise the result can be misleading and
dangerous.
5. Statistics does not deal with individual: stats deal only with
aggregates rather than individual items. A single or isolated figure
cannot be regarded as statistics. E.g.: an individual item like height of
a student in a class is 5.6 is not statistics, but if we say average
height of the class is 5.8 then it is statistics. In statistical methods we
deal with aggregates and not with a single figure.
6. Statistics results/ laws are true only on an average: statistics as
science is not accurate as other science. Statistical laws are not
universally truer like laws of physics, chemistry etc. they are true only
on an average. statistics are not very precise accurate. Statistics are
concerned with those phenomena which are affected by multiplicity of
causes. It is not possible to study the effect of each of these factors
separately as we do under experimental methods. Due to this
limitation the conclusion arrived at are not perfectly accurate.
7. Statistics is only a means and not an end: the tools of statistics
are only a means to understand any given problem rather than a
method to solve any problem. there are other methods of studying a
problem like culture, religion, philosophy etc. statistics is only a
means not an end. It analyses the facts and throw light on real life
situation.
8. Statistical results are not always beyond doubt: stats deal with
measurable aspects of things and therefore can seldom give the
complete solution to problem. They provide a basis of judgement but
not the whole judgement.
9. Statistical results are only approximately correct: it is science of
estimates. It fails in the field of where perfect accuracy is desired
10. Homogeneity of data: for comparison purpose data should be
homogeneous and uniform. quantities measured in different units
cannot be compared. E.g.: since food grains and cloth are measured
in different units, we can simply compare their values in rupees but
not their quantities.
11. statistics can be misused: statistics can be misused by ignorant
and wrongly motivated person. Any person can misuse stats and
draw wrong conclusion. Statistical methods are dangerous tools in
the hands of non-experts. biggest limitation of statistics is that it
deals with figures which are innocent and don not bear on their face
the label of their quality. They can be easily manipulated and
distorted by dishonest or unskilled users for selfish motives.
Statistics neither proves nor disproves anything. It is merely a tool
which is rightly used may prove extremely useful but if misused may
lead to wrong conclusion. In the words of working statistics are like
clay of which you can make a god or a devil as you please. According
to him science of stats is useful servant but only of great value those
who understand its proper use. Then example of wrong
interpretation. In India the percentage of death among sick person is
higher in hospital than at home was stated by a person who collected
information of deaths in hospitals and at home. This may lead to
conclusion that more person dies in hospital than at home due to
lack of proper treatment and care. But the investigation failed to face
into consideration the fact that in India only seriously ill persons are
hospitalized.
Limitation of statistics
12. Statistics does not study qualitative aspect: statistics are
numerical statement of facts. It can be applied only to such problems
that can be measured quantitatively. statistics cannot be used directly
for the study of qualitative characteristics such as honesty, beauty,
intelligence, health, culture etc. however it may be possible to analyse
the characteristics indirectly. E.g.: we can study intelligence of
students on the basis of marks secured by them in examination.
13. Statistics does not reveal entire study: statistical analysis
may focus on only certain aspects of the study and may not bring to
light the entire story. Eg: opposition in USA, to outsourcing jobs in
India is justified citing statistics on job losses. However, if the
demographic profile of USA is studied one finds that America is
actually heading for an era of shortage of personnel. a good
statistician must recognize the need to consider all facts and complete
story rather than rely on a few tools of statistical analysis.
14. No cause and effect relationship: statistics does not
necessarily bring the cause and effect relationship between various
parameters. The investigator needs to apply judgement to determine
the relationship between the parameters. E.g.: if sales and
advertisement expenditure of an organization is studied, it does not
tell that there cause and effect relationship between the two. If fact
regression techniques can be applied to find out what would be the
advertisement expenditure for a given figure of sales. This may not be
practical as sales does not directly cause impact on advertisement.
15. Statistics can be used by expert only: statistical technique is
not so simple to be used by any layman. The technique being
complicated in nature can be used only by experts knowing the
application of statistical methodologies Otherwise the result can be
misleading and dangerous.
16. Statistics does not deal with individual: stats deal only with
aggregates rather than individual items. A single or isolated figure
cannot be regarded as statistics. E.g.: an individual item like height of
a student in a class is 5.6 is not statistics, but if we say average
height of the class is 5.8 then it is statistics. In statistical methods we
deal with aggregates and not with a single figure.
17. Statistics results/ laws are true only on an average:
statistics as science is not accurate as other science. Statistical laws
are not universally truer like laws of physics, chemistry etc. they are
true only on an average. statistics are not very precise accurate.
Statistics are concerned with those phenomena which are affected by
multiplicity of causes. It is not possible to study the effect of each of
these factors separately as we do under experimental methods. Due to
this limitation the conclusion arrived at are not perfectly accurate.
18. Statistics is only a means and not an end: the tools of
statistics are only a means to understand any given problem rather
than a method to solve any problem. there are other methods of
studying a problem like culture, religion, philosophy etc. statistics is
only a means not an end. It analyses the facts and throw light on real
life situation.
19. Statistical results are not always beyond doubt: stats deal
with measurable aspects of things and therefore can seldom give the
complete solution to problem. They provide a basis of judgement but
not the whole judgement.
20. Statistical results are only approximately correct: it is
science of estimates. It fails in the field of where perfect accuracy is
desired
21. Homogeneity of data: for comparison purpose data should be
homogeneous and uniform. quantities measured in different units
cannot be compared. E.g.: since food grains and cloth are measured
in different units, we can simply compare their values in rupees but
not their quantities.
22. statistics can be misused: statistics can be misused by ignorant
and wrongly motivated person. Any person can misuse stats and
draw wrong conclusion. Statistical methods are dangerous tools in
the hands of non-experts. biggest limitation of statistics is that it
deals with figures which are innocent and don not bear on their face
the label of their quality. They can be easily manipulated and
distorted by dishonest or unskilled users for selfish motives.
Statistics neither proves nor disproves anything. It is merely a tool
which is rightly used may prove extremely useful but if misused may
lead to wrong conclusion. In the words of working statistics are like
clay of which you can make a god or a devil as you please. According
to him science of stats is useful servant but only of great value those
who understand its proper use. Then example of wrong
interpretation. In India the percentage of death among sick person is
higher in hospital than at home was stated by a person who collected
information of deaths in hospitals and at home. This may lead to
conclusion that more person dies in hospital than at home due to
lack of proper treatment and care. But the investigation failed to face
into consideration the fact that in India only seriously ill persons are
hospitalized.
4. What is secondary data? Explain the secondary data
methods?
Secondary data
Secondary data are opposite to primary data. They are collected and
published already (by some organization, for instance). They can be
used as a source of data and used by surveyors to collect data from
and conduct the analysis. Secondary data are impure in the sense
that they have undergone statistical treatment at least once.
Methods of secondary data collection:
Official publications such as the Ministry of Finance, Statistical
Departments of the government, Federal Bureaus, Agricultural
Statistical boards, etc. Semi-official sources include State Bank,
Boards of Economic Enquiry, etc.
Data published by Chambers of Commerce and trade
associations and boards.
Articles in the newspaper, from journals and technical
publications.
5. Explain the scope of business statistics.
Statistics and business: a good businessman make a good sales
prediction keeping in view of all types of seasonal and market
variation. In modern business it is due to availability of data that
suitable policies can be followed in case of production, finance,
investment, marketing etc.
Some of the key areas of importance of statistics in business are as
follows:
Market analysis: marketing research provide solution to various
problems involved in marketing goods, services or ideas. In this
context systematic collection, analysis and interpretation of marketing
data is done by using statistical methods, marketing decision involve
introduction of new products, reaction of consumers to prices,
effectiveness of advertisement company.
Cash forecasting: financial analyst has to forecast cash requirement to
meet short term obligation like payment of salary, payment to supplier
etc statistics analysis helps in working out realistic cash forecasting.
Finance: key financial ratio is worked out by using the balance sheet
and profit and loss account to know the financial health of an
enterprise comparative statistical analysis reveals the performance of
the company in the past years and emerging trends in the future. `
Material management: by using appropriate statistical methods one
can maintain optimum inventory stock levels of raw material and
finished products and thus savings are made which has impact on
profit.
Quality management: statistical principles from the basis of carrying
out quality assurances exercises. Raw material and other item are
checked for quality to meet customers’ needs and inspection of
finished product is done on sample basis to reduce complaint from
customers.
Demand projections: short term and long-term demand projection are
required for the company products and services both for domestic and
international market. Statistical survey and analysis of the past data
relating to industry provide reliable sales and demand projection.
Mean
The mean is the sum of the value of each observation in a dataset divided by
the number of observations. This is also known as the arithmetic average.
Median
The median is the middle value in distribution when the values are
arranged in ascending or descending order.
The median divides the distribution in half (there are 50% of observations on
either side of the median value). In a distribution with an odd number of
observations, the median value is the middle value.
Merits of median
Simplicity: - It is very simple measure of the central
tendency of the series. I the case of simple statistical
series, just a glance at the data is enough to locate the
median value.
Free from the effect of extreme values: - Unlike arithmetic
mean, median value is not destroyed by the extreme values
of the series.
Certainty: - Certainty is another merits is the median.
Median values are always a certain specific value in the
series.
Real value: - Median value is real value and is a better
representative value of the series compared to arithmetic
mean average, the value of which may not exist in the
series at all.
Graphic presentation: - Besides algebraic approach, the
median value can be estimated also through the graphic
presentation of data.
Possible even when data is incomplete: - Median can be
estimated even in the case of certain incomplete series. It
is enough if one knows the number of items and the middle
item of the series.
Demerits of median:
Following are the various demerits of median:
Lack of representative character: - Median fails to be a
representative measure in case of such series the different
values of which are wide apart from each other. Also,
median is of limited representative character as it is not
based on all the items in the series.
Unrealistic: - When the median is located somewhere
between the two middle values, it remains only an
approximate measure, not a precise value.
Lack of algebraic treatment: - Arithmetic mean is capable of
further algebraic treatment, but median is not. For
example, multiplying the median with the number of items
in the series will not give us the sum total of the values of
the series.
Mode
The mode is the most commonly occurring value in a distribution.
Merits of mode:
Following are the various merits of mode:
Simple and popular: - Mode is very simple measure of central
tendency. Sometimes, just at the series is enough to locate the model
value. Because of its simplicity, it’s a very popular measure of the
central tendency.
Less effect of marginal values: - Compared top mean, mode is less
affected by marginal values in the series. Mode is determined only by
the value with highest frequencies.
Graphic presentation: - Mode can be located graphically, with the
help of histogram.
Best representative: - Mode is that value which occurs most
frequently in the series. Accordingly, mode is the best representative
value of the series.
No need of knowing all the items or frequencies: - The calculation
of mode does not require knowledge of all the items and frequencies of
a distribution. In simple series, it is enough if one knows the items
with highest frequencies in the distribution.
Demerits of mode:
Following are the various demerits of mode:
Uncertain and vague: - Mode is an uncertain and vague measure of
the central tendency.
Not capable of algebraic treatment: - Unlike mean, mode is not
capable of further algebraic treatment.
Difficult: - With frequencies of all items are identical, it is difficult to
identify the modal value.
Complex procedure of grouping: - Calculation of mode involves
cumbersome procedure of grouping the data. If the extent of grouping
changes, there will be a change in the model value.
Ignores extreme marginal frequencies: - It ignores extreme marginal
frequencies. To that extent model value is not a representative value of
all the items in a series. Besides, one can question the representative
character of the model value as its calculation does not involve all
items of the series.
Geometric mean.
The geometric mean is an average or average that gives the central tendency
or typical value of a series of numbers by taking the product of the
numbers.
The main advantage of the geometric mean is:
The calculation is based on all the terms of the sequence.
Suitable for further mathematical analysis.
Fluctuations in the sample do not affect the geometric mean.
It gives more weight to small observations.
The disadvantage of the geometric mean is:
One of the main drawbacks of the geometric mean is that if one of the
observations is negative, the geometric mean will be imaginary,
despite the other set of observations.
Due to the complexity of the numbers, it is not easy for anyone other
than a mathematician to understand and calculate.
Harmonic Mean
The Harmonic Mean (HM) is defined as the reciprocal of the arithmetic mean
of the reciprocals of the observations. Harmonic mean gives less weightage
to the larger values and more weightage to the smaller values to balance the
values properly.
Correlation
Meaning: Correlation is a statistical technique to ascertain the association
or relationship between two or more variables. Correlation analysis is a
statistical technique to study the degree and direction of relationship
between two or more variables. A correlation coefficient is a statistical
measure of the degree to which changes to the value of one variable predict
change to the value of another. When the
fluctuation of one variable reliably predicts a similar fluctuation in another
variable,
there’s often a tendency to think that means that the change in one causes
the change
in the other.
Uses of correlations:
Correlation analysis helps inn deriving precisely the degree and the
direction of
such relationship.
The effect of correlation is to reduce the range of uncertainty of our
prediction.
The prediction based on correlation analysis will be more reliable and
near to
reality.
Correlation analysis contributes to the understanding of economic
behaviour,
aids in locating the critically important variables on which others
depend, may
reveal to the economist the connections by which disturbances spread
and
suggest to him the paths through which stabilizing farces may become
effective
Economic theory and business studies show relationships between
variables
like price and quantity demanded advertising expenditure and sales
promotion
measures etc.
The measure of coefficient of correlation is a relative measure of
change.
Types of Correlation:
Correlation is described or classified in several different ways. Three of the
most important are:
I. Positive and Negative
II. Simple, Partial and Multiple
III. Linear and non-linear
I. Positive and Negative Correlation: Whether correlation is positive
(direct) or negative (in-versa) would depend upon the direction of
change of the variable.
Positive Correlation: If both the variables vary in the same direction,
correlation is said to be positive. It means if one variable is increasing,
the other on an average is also increasing or if one variable is
decreasing, the other on an average is also deceasing, then the
correlation is said to be positive correlation. Negative Correlation: If
both the variables vary in opposite direction, the correlation is said to
be negative. If means if one variable increases, but the other variable
decreases or if one variable decreases, but the other variable
increases, then the correlation is said to be negative correlation.
II. Simple, Partial and Multiple Correlation: The distinction between
simple, partial and multiple correlation is based upon the number of
variables studied.
Simple Correlation: When only two variables are studied, it is a case
of simple correlation. For example, when one studies relationship
between the marks secured by student and the attendance of student
in class, it is a problem of simple correlation.
Partial Correlation: In case of partial correlation one studies three or
more variables but considers only two variables to be influencing each
other and the effect of other influencing variables being held constant.
For example, in above example of relationship between student marks
and attendance, the other variable influencing such as effective
teaching of teacher, use of teaching aid like computer, smart board
etc. are assumed to be constant.
Multiple Correlation: When three or more variables are studied, it is
a case of multiple correlation. For example, in above example if study
covers the relationship between student marks, attendance of
students, effectiveness of teacher, use of teaching aids etc., it is a case
of multiple correlation.
III. Linear and Non-linear Correlation:
Depending upon the constancy of the ratio of change between the
variables, the correlation may be Linear or Non-linear Correlation.
Linear Correlation: If the amount of change in one variable bears a
constant ratio to the amount of change in the other variable, then
correlation is said to be linear. If such variables are plotted on a graph
paper all the plotted points would fall on a straight line.
Non-linear Correlation: If the amount of change in one variable does
not bear a constant ratio to the amount of change to the other
variable, then correlation is said to be non-linear. If such variables are
plotted on a graph, the points would fall on a curve and not on a
straight line.
Trend
Trend shows a common tendency of data. It may move upward or
increase or go downward or decrease over a certain, long period of time. The
trend is a stable and long-term general tendency of movement of the data.
To be a trend, it is not mandatory for the data to move in the same direction.
The direction or movement may change over the long-term period but the
overall tendency should remain the same in a trend.
Some of the examples of trends include – the number of schools,
agricultural production, increase in population, etc. It is notable that the
trend may move upward, go downward or remain stable over different
sections of time. A Trend can be either linear or non-linear.
Seasonal Variations
Seasonal variations are changes in time series that occur in the short
term, usually within less than 12 months. They usually show the same
pattern of upward or downward growth in the 12-month period of the time
series. These variations are often recorded as hourly, daily, weekly,
quarterly, and monthly schedules.
Seasonal variations occur due to natural or manmade forces or
variations. The numerous seasons and manmade variations play a vital role
in seasonal variations.
Example − The crops depend on the season, the sales of A.C,s going
up during the summer and the use of umbrellas skyrocketing during the
rainy season - all of these are seasonal variations.
Seasonal variations can be clearly seen in some cases of man-made
conventions. The festivals, customs, fashions, habits, and various occasions,
such as weddings impact the seasonal variations. An increase in business
during the seasonal variation period should not be considered a better
business condition.
Cyclical Variations
Variations in time series that occur themselves for the span of more
than a year are called Cyclical Variations. Such oscillatory movements of
time serious often have a duration of more than a year. One complete period
of operation is called either a cycle or a ‘Business Cycle’.
Cyclic variations contain four phases - prosperity, recession,
depression, and recovery. It may be regular or non-periodic in nature.
Usually, cyclical variations occur due to a combination of two or more
economic forces and their interactions.