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Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Cap
rates have continued to reset higher over the last couple quarters, to 11.4% from an average around
10.0% last year. Omega and Sabra continue to sell underperforming assets and look to
opportunistically buy stronger assets at attractive valuations from distressed private market sellers.
Ultimately, we view an investment in the Timber REIT sector as a play on the US housing sector,
and more specifically, a view in favor of the continued recovery in the single-family homebuilding
sector following years of historically low home construction in the post-recession period. Capital
recycling activity in recent quarters has been well-received by healthcare REIT investors. An
estimated 87 million Americans own REITs through their retirement savings and other investment
funds. Hoya manages institutional and individual portfolios of publicly traded real estate securities.
Realty Developer K Raheja and US private equity firm Blackstone Group will be offering through
an IPO, INR 3,000 crore Mindspace Business Parks REIT in 2020. Reply Like (2) C Centrino 15
Aug. 2023 Investing Group Comments (2.96K) Thanks! If you could only buy 2 REITs today, which
ones would they be, and why. All the REIT mentioned in the comments seems have been down by at
least 30% in 5 year, and even this year it's going down, then how it's return is 21%, is it from
dividend. Across the country, zoning commissions continue to have a sharply unfavorable view of
manufactured housing communities. What happens next is uncertain, but we are well prepared to
face volatility and will continue to gradually build an ever larger REIT portfolio. Each distribution,
or dividend payout, received by investors in taxable accounts is comprised of a combination of funds
acquired by the REIT from a range of sources and categories, each with its own tax consequences. I
guess leverage of 64% of total capital would square those numbers. Reply Like Keep it Country 08
Jul. 2019 Comments (1.74K) Lots of good information. Thanks. Long WY and ACAZF. Reply Like
wildpitcher 08 Jul. 2019 Premium Comments (10.91K) Excellent article. Lumber prices peaked in
May 2018 on supply shortages in the Pacific Northwest and the ongoing softwood lumber dispute
with Canada. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or
investment bank. Perhaps food (court variety) for thought for a future article. Although as a global
REIT ETF fund, VNQI is more exposed to some of these risks than VNQ. Downsizing retailers have
focused their investment into higher-performing stores and have continued to close weaker-
performing stores in lower-tier malls and retail centers. 2017 saw an unusual surge in the rate of store
closings, but total closings dropped 20% in 2018 before reaccelerating yet again in the early part of
2019. High-productivity malls reported a 7.8% rise in tenant sales per square feet in 4Q18, but just a
1.1% rise in same-store NOI growth. To report a factual error in this article, click here. He is the
leader of the investing group High Yield Landlord, where he shares his real-money REIT portfolio
and transactions in real-time. Fact: REITs trade at a slight discount to historic averages and
opportunities remain abundant among smaller and lesser known REITs. Too much debt, fire sales still
continue and the German real estate market hardly shows signs to recover. According to a Consumer
Financial Protection Bureau study, manufactured housing residents pay significantly less all-in
housing costs than typical renters and homeowners. If one looks at the debt in isolation, rising rates
are of course a bad thing as the debt becomes expensive, but the more realistic attribute to look at is
the comparison between income streams and expense streams. So yes, REIT debt will get more
expensive, but the assets associated with that debt will also generate more revenues. This occurs
when the company sells one of its real estate assets and realizes a profit. That's because despite a lot
of construction, demand has exceeded new supply as we haven't build enough for years leading to
the pandemic, which then also caused a lot of supply chain issues. As a proportional owner of the
REIT company, the shareholder receives this payout as ordinary income and will be taxed at the
investor’s marginal income tax rate as nonqualified dividends. REIT ETFs are exchange-traded funds
(ETFs) that primarily invest in equity REIT securities and aim to emulate REIT indexes.
Reply Like S SayItWithLyrics 12 Apr. 2019 Comments (3.72K) Great article, and I'll add one more
thing. The bifurcation between top-tier and lower-tier mall REITs continues to widen. Many are also
good trading vehicles when interest rates are cut. RV sales have more than doubled since 2009 and
sales in 2017 were more than 25% above the prior peak in 2005. Right now you can buy Treasuries
and CDs that pay more than REITS. These real estate companies have to meet a number of
requirements to qualify as REITs. It's better to own a bunch of average buildings in Washington,
D.C. than it is to own prime office space in Detroit, for example. And as you can see from the
following two charts, VNQ's outperformance in the past over VNQI has been canceled off by the tax
headwinds to a good extent. VNQI: valuation comparison With the above introduction, let's
examine their valuation more closely. Our products or services vary in different jurisdictions, subject
to their respective terms and conditions and the licenses our affiliates and us hold. NEVER make an
investment decision based solely on the information provided in our articles. Powered by renewed
signs of life in the single-family housing market, 2019 has been much better for the Timber REIT
sector, which has climbed nearly 22% so far this year. You have office reits with the future of work
from home only growing with time as an acceptable business model. You have retail reits that have
the long standing rise in internet shopping and a nearing recession putting some of the most shaky
retailer tenants at risk of disappearing forever. Informa PLC's registered office is 5 Howick Place,
London SW1P 1WG. Per NIC data, national SNF rent growth averaged 2.6%, up from last quarter,
following a steady linear downtrend since 2016, when rent growth was averaging nearly 4.5%.
Occupancy ticked up to 86.7% from 85.9% last quarter. Unlike the senior housing sub-sector, supply
growth is largely a non-factor in the SNF space, as annual inventory growth continues to be in net-
negative territory. This article was written by Hoya Capital 33.87K Follower s Follow Alex Pettee is
President and Director of Research and ETFs at Hoya Capital. My REIT Thesis To understand my
thesis, it's first important to understand why REIT (Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares (
VNQ )) prices have declined over the past year by almost 30% and what the bears' arguments are.
But,as it has been published,a lot now retiring don't have a large enough nest egg so will have to
persue this. Essentially, investors are buying a two-thirds share in a manufactured housing REIT and
a one-third share in an actively managed REIT mutual fund. Long-term fundamentals look strong for
the Timber REIT and broader housing sectors, powered by demographic trends that suggest a revival
of the suburbs and single-family housing in the 2020s. Growth In Manufactured Housing Sales The
growth of the home sales program has provided an incremental tailwind over the past several years.
Mills transform the raw timber into various wood products, including lumber, OBS, engineered
wood, or wood pulp-based products such as paper. Investors of course have a variety of levels of
risk tolerance. ELS appears to be priced for perfection, but SUI has significant room to close the
performance gap, particularly after the acquisition of Carefree. I have no business relationship with
any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Reply Like Donald Johnson 28 Sep. 2022
Premium Comments (2.79K) REITS are bad investments, especially now. The sector has been largely
immune from supply-related pressures. Foreigners- No Thai taxes are imposed on foreign individual
unit holders on income or Capital Gains, as income is viewed as commercial income by the taxman
and so not subject to Withholding Tax, when paid to an overseas beneficiary. Mall REITs now trade
at an estimated 10-20% discount to private market values, on average, with the lower-productivity
malls trading at a 0-50% discount depending on the assumptions used.
Various research papers and reports on REITs were also. This study investigated what sale terms and
conditions an Inn owner would sell their property to a REIT. Timber REITs are also among the most
exposed real estate sectors to the effects off natural disasters including wildfires, droughts,
hurricanes, as well as insects and diseases. Nareit's members are REITs and other businesses
throughout the world that own, operate, and finance income-producing real estate, as well as those
firms and individuals who advise, study, and service those businesses. We shall assume the ticket size
is of Rs.2 Lakh each. An increase in interest rates would translate into a decrease in mortgage REIT
book values, driving stock prices lower. Manufacturing jobs, which had entered a mild recession in
2016, have seen significant growth in recent quarters and wage growth has picked-up as labor
markets tighten. While it reduces the tax liability of the dividend, it also reduces the investor’s per-
share cost basis. Real Estate and Housing Index definitions are available at HoyaCapital.com.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It isn't like a pine
planting when the seedlings are planted and harvested at the same time. For high-productivity malls,
however, the metrics are stronger than the stock performance suggests. We expect the spread between
ELS and SUI to narrow post-Carefree acquisition. Cap rates have compressed, which has made
acquisitions less attractive for these REITs. Mall REITs trade at modest relative discounts to Free
Cash Flow (aka AFFO, FAD, CAD), but appear less attractive when factoring in growth
expectations. India. These regulations were studied to create the REIT model along with the. Same-
Store NOI growth in the MH sector has been stellar since 2014 compared to the broader REIT
average. Take the 10-year average annual total return as an example. I have been through times of
high volatility and each time, my REIT portfolio emerged more valuable than ever before as the
market eventually recovered. If retailers are experiencing cash flow problems due to poor sales, it's
possible they could delay or even default on those monthly payments, eventually being forced into
bankruptcy. Additionally, the negative impacts of globalization on the bottom quintile of earners, it
could be argued, is a transitory force that may be running its course. Index performance cited in this
commentary does not reflect the performance of any fund or other account managed or serviced by
Hoya Capital Real Estate. Once you've chosen the REIT investment that best fits your financial
needs and investment goals, you can proceed to buy it online. RV rental revenue, which accounts for
roughly one-fourth of NOI, is expected to rise an average of nearly 8% in 2018. Omega and Sabra
are still actively trying to contain the damage from struggling operators by offering concessions and
rent reductions to these tenants in an effort to keep them solvent, a theme that abated a bit in 2018.
Reply Like (1) Hoya Capital 23 Apr. 2019 Investing Group Leader Premium Comments (5.2K)
Thank you, BakkenPro. You ignore that for every one large REIT, there exists four smaller REITs.
Even just a mean-reversion bounce back would make for solid returns. That's one reason we prefer
the vertically-integrated REITs that are less directly-exposed to lumber pricing. We believe that
single-family homebuilding will provide a significant demand tailwind for timber over the next
decade. Reply Like Add A Comment Disagree with this article.