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Determinants of Urban Land Lease Market in an Emerging

Economy: Empirical Evidence from Ethiopia

Article in International Journal of Economics and Business Administration · October 2020

DOI: 10.35808/ijeba/599

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Hafte Gebreselassie Gebrihet Pregala Pillay

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International Journal of Economics and Business Administration
Volume VIII, Issue 4, 2020
pp. 450-470
Determinants of Urban Land Lease Market in an Emerging
Economy: Empirical Evidence from Ethiopia
Submitted 10/06/20, 1st revision 14/07/20, 2nd revision 25/08/20, accepted 10/09/20

H.G. Gebrihet1, P. Pillay2

Abstract:

Purpose: The ultimate objective of the study is to examine the determinants of the urban land
lease market in an emerging economy with empirical evidence from Ethiopia.
Design/Methodology/Approach: A nomothetic methodology with a standardized and
quantitative method of data analysis was adopted for this study. The data was gathered from
the Mekelle municipality between 2014-2019. The data was analyzed using the pooled
ordinary least square technique. The model produced robust relationships and consistent
results with previous studies.
Findings: The study found both supply and demand-driven factors associated with plot
markup price. The findings revealed that plot size, payment period, monthly income, plots
accessible to basic services, plot location, land use type, and land lease auctioned period
associated positively and significantly with the urban land lease markup price. Auctioneers
paid a premium for plots having a larger size, extended payment period, access to basic
services, and specified for residential housing. On the other hand, distance, and plot
inaccessible to basic services associated negatively and significantly with the urban land
lease markup price.
Practical Implication: The rapid urbanization in Ethiopia has generated intensified supply
and demand-driven challenges for public policy. Hence, the municipality should enhance
infrastructure development across all plot locations and exercise strict control of land
speculation to increase municipal revenue, and address supply and demand-driven
challenges. Moreover, the municipal government should ensure equitable access to urban
land by controlling land speculation.
Originality/Value: Several studies that have assessed urban land expansion and
administration, however, paid less attention to the urban land lease market. Furthermore, in
an economic sense, it is crucial to examine the urban land value determinants from both
demand and supply side at a time when less attention has been paid thereto in the literature.

Keywords: Land, urban land, land lease market, markup price, Mekelle city, Ethiopia.

JEL codes: E20, E22, E31, E44.

Paper Type: Research Article.
ISSN: 2241-4754, H index 10, Q3.

1
School of Public Leadership, Stellenbosch University, South Africa, ORCID:
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3436-641X, Email: [email protected]
2
School of Public Leadership, Stellenbosch University, South Africa, ORCID:
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2101-962X, Email: [email protected]
 Hafte Gebreselassie Gebrihet, P. Pillay

451

1. Introduction

Because of its different use and physiognomies, land is a key tool for the urban
economy (Glumac et al., 2019). Its valuation was introduced to the research
community in the second half of the 19th century (Glumac et al., 2019) when the first
valuation materialized based on the observation of its features. Over the past 200
years, a gradual but fundamental change in the land market was observed in many
countries (Wallace and Williamson, 2006). Since then, the urban land market has
become a critical component in determining the density of the urban population, the
form, and the price of urban land (Serra et al., 2015).

Understanding the market value, the factors associated with the prices and the supply
of urban land is significant for executives to value land, adopt the land tax, and for
policymakers to formulate land-related policy reforms (Jaeger, 2013; Gedal and
Ellen, 2018). Besides, a functioning urban land market is crucial in enhancing
efficient land use by optimizing land provision amid contending uses in the
development of effective and efficient spatial patterns and structures of cities (Ding
and Zhao, 2014). The success of land markets, however, depends on certainty in
democracy, community interest for a land market benefit, and belief in the
inviolability of property (Williamson et al., 2010). Urban land markets in many
developing countries3, however, have suffered from market imperfection, inefficient
distribution, pervasive land insecurity, as well as conflicts over urban land (Kolowe,
2014). However, the nature and levels of imperfection differ from one country to
another and municipality to another.

Like other developing countries, the current economic progress of Ethiopia demands
massive urban land for residential use, industrial expansion, and urban development
(Yirga, 2014). As a key policy reform, the government banned private land
transactions and declared public ownership thereof (FDRE, 1995; 2011). Urban land
markets in the country have been transacting in the form of lease organized by
formal institutions, for example, municipalities and City administrations since 1993
(TGE, 1993; FDRE, 2011; Yirga, 2014). This requires qualified human power and
better coordination among stakeholders to reduce tedious bureaucracy and
unnecessary work steps which result in temptation for acts of corruption and
informal payments. However, in many cities4 land auction and allotment process
took place without considering the growing demand for urban land (Eticha, 2017).
This resulted in the illegal construction of houses, informal settlements, and
speculation (Yirga, 2014; Eticha, 2017).

3
Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria among the few are struggling to make the land market
efficient and speculation free.
4
Cities such as Bahir dar, Addis Ababa, Hawasssa; towns such as Adigrat, Enticho, Adwa
are highly and negatively affected by the illegal construction of houses, informal settlements,
and speculation.
 Determinants of Urban Land Lease Market in an Emerging Economy:
Empirical Evidence from Ethiopia
452

Given the significance of land to world-wide development efforts, various studies

have intensively assessed urban land expansion, real estate and housing market with
less attention towards urban land lease market (Angel et al., 2011; Arribas et al.,
2011; Chen and Song, 2014; Hamidi and Ewing, 2014; Vongpraseuth and Choi,
2015; Chen et al., 2016; Zhang and Su, 2016; Xiong and Tan, 2018). Several
empirical studies on the land market assessed the determinants of the price of urban
land from a supply perspective (Du et al., 2011; Combes et al., 2012; Yang et al.,
2015). These studies revealed that the inelasticity of land results in a decrease in its
supply, while empirical studies assessed the determinants of the price of urban land
from a demand perspective found that socio-economic factors such as income,
infrastructure, an increase in population and net migration, environmental concerns,
social and neighborhood status affect land market ( Jaeger, 2013; Bayrau and
Assefa, 2017). However, in an economic sense, it is crucial to examine the urban
land value determinants from both demand and supply side at a time when less
attention has been paid thereto in the literature. Therefore, the purpose of this study
is to examine the determinants of urban land lease market from both the demand and
supply side from empirical evidence gathered at Mekelle City, Ethiopia.

2. Literature Review

2.1 Evolution of Urban Land Markets

Land is considered as a basic source of production in any country with

comprehensive social, economic, political, cultural, and spiritual implications
(Williamson et al., 2010). The process of land allocation and affordability thereof,
however, depends on the policy and how impartially land is allocated among the
people (Owoeye and Adedeji, 2015; Adam, 2019). Unlike other goods and services,
land is a factor of production that cannot be produced. Consequently, countries
endorse land use and ownership policies that would preserve the economic power,
social solidarity, and spiritual attachments of its people. Authors such as Bruce
(1998), Van Der Molen (2002), Picarelli (2015) classified land ownership into four
groupings. The first category is as a communal/customary ownership to which
individual rights are not allocated. The second category is state ownership in which
the government controls and manages the land. The third category is individual
ownership in which ownership right is given to individuals, while the fourth
category is a mixed ownership form where the state and the people own collectively,
and the government manages on behalf of the people. These land groupings vary
across countries depending on the policies and historical backgrounds to determine
the system and type of land market.

The emergence of the urban land lease market has been a major emphasis on land
reform in post-1991 in Ethiopia, which shifted urban land market strategy in the
country (TGE, 1993). The urban land lease market, which was forbidden during the
Derg regime/military government had become a vital system of land allocation and
transactions in the urban areas of the country. As part of the decentralization process,
 Hafte Gebreselassie Gebrihet, P. Pillay

453

municipal governments and City administrations have been empowered to manage

urban land use which was centralized during the previous governments (Wubneh,
2018).

2.2 Theoretical Framework

Nowadays, the population, wealth, scientific innovations, and productive activities

are highly concentrated in cities in the global North and South (Macleod and
Macleod, 2011; Storper, 2016). This has attracted several scholars such as
Malczewski and Ontario (2009), Ja (2020), Murray (2020) amongst others, to
develop a theory that fits the context of urban politics. These theories are reviewed
in the context of this study as follows.

The location theory is the most appropriate and relevant to this study. Economists
assume geographic location as a determinant factor that affects firms, communities,
and even nations' economic environment (Kilkenny and Thisse, 1999; Murray,
2020). This theory has also served as a central component of urban economic
geography since its emergence, which explains the significance of location (Murray,
2020). The choice of business location depends on the resource endowment, demand
for the product, spatial competition, and its distance from the customers (Kilkenny
and Thisse, 1999; Murray, 2020). In the context of urban land value, private
developers consider the availability of customers, basic infrastructures, economic
efficiencies, and service providers to decide won the price of a specific plot.
Businesses are always in competition for customers; therefore, they locate a strategic
place since the former are on the street. On the other hand, residential locations are
selected to maximize household utility in terms of goods, transport costs, and market
place (Kilkenny and Thisse, 1999). According to the location theory, plots closer to
the urban-industrial areas and customers are more expensive than those a distance
from the center. From this theory, it can be inferred that distance of a parcel/plot of
land, infrastructural expansions, the number of competitors, and land use type plays
a significant role in determining the price of a plot of land.

Central place theory, which was founded by Walter Christaller in 1933, a German
scholar from Bavaria to assess the correlation between settlements and their
complementary regions is also appropriate for this study. This theory predicts the
distribution of services in an economy across geographic locations. It stresses the
role of consumers' demand as a key to location choice. To control the potential
central places for business use, two economic parameters namely: “the minimum
level of demand necessary to support business activity and the maximum distance a
consumer is willing to travel to purchase a good” was accentuated (Malczewski and
Ontario, 2009). For this theory, the price of land reflects the development condition
of the plot, which extended from the Central Business District, Transitional Zone,
and to the Sub-Urban Fringe and declined exponentially with rising distance from
the center. In this regard, the most luxurious land is located near the center of the
 Determinants of Urban Land Lease Market in an Emerging Economy:
Empirical Evidence from Ethiopia
454

City and under the Central Business District, while affordable land is located in the
remote areas and Sub-Urban Fringes (Kheir and Portnov, 2016).

2.3 Empirical Review

Previous studies in the literature have considered possible determinant factors

associated with markup prices land across countries. The factors perhaps stem from
either supply or demand-driven or both. The supply-driven factors are related to the
availability of serviced land amongst others, where the government land-use policies
determine the number of plots per lease round (Du et al., 2011; Combes et al., 2012;
Yang et al., 2015). Authors like Du et al. (2011) and Yang et al. (2015) revealed that
the existing land policies in China empower the municipal government to be the only
supplier of land since 2004, which enables them to control land supply and thereby
help land developers to acquire land-use rights at a fair competition level in the
market.

By contrast, several studies demonstrated that socio-economic factors such as

income, infrastructure, an increase in population and net migration, environmental
concerns, social and neighborhood status affects the housing market (Kabba and Li,
2011; Ma and Liu, 2013; Kheir and Portnov, 2016; Qu et al., 2020). The findings by
Ma and Liu (2013) and Qu et al. (2020) also demonstrate that an improvement in the
plot grade and distance to the transportation center impacts on the price of land. Also
relevant to this study, scholars Jaeger (2013), Ding and Zhao (2014), Bayrau and
Assefa (2017), Wineman and Saweda (2017), Gedal and Ellen (2018), Malaitham et
al. (2018) reported that location of the plots, income, development condition of a
plot, and distance from the center determines the price of land.

Overall, the previous studies assessed urban land expansion, land market, and the
housing market, while less attention was paid to the urban land lease market.
However, this study focused on the urban land lease market. Moreover, the previous
studies assessed the urban land market either from the supply or demand side at a
time, while this study examined the determinants of the urban land lease market
from the demand and supply side.

2.4 Conceptual Framework

To assess determinant factors associated with markup prices in Mekelle City, a

detailed conceptual framework was designed. As illustrated in Figure 1, the land is
the collective possession of the people of Ethiopia owned by the state on behalf of
the public (FDRE, 1995). The rural area is a terrestrial one that is placed exterior to
the municipalities managed by the Regional and Woreda/District government
ascendingly, while the Peri-Urban areas are a hinterland near the rural areas where
legal and illegal land transactions take place. In urban areas, municipalities allocate
land to diverse groups on a lease and allotment bases (FDRE, 2011). This study
 Hafte Gebreselassie Gebrihet, P. Pillay

455

examined the determinants of the urban land lease market from the demand and
supply side. Consequently, the following hypotheses were developed.

Figure 1. Conceptual Framework of the Study

Source: Own Elaboration (2020).

H0: Markup price has no association with plot size; plot payment completion period;
auctioneer monthly income; distance in kilometer; base price; down payment; land
use type; plot grade; plot location; plot auction period; sex and land auction period.
H1: Markup price has an association with plot size; plot payment completion period;
auctioneer monthly income; distance in kilometer; base price; down payment; land
use type; plot grade; plot location; plot auction period; sex and land auction period.

3. Research Methodology

A nomothetic methodology with a standardized and quantitative method of data

analysis was adopted for this study. Burrell and Morgan (2019) suggest social
science scholars to utilize a nomothetic methodology if their research protocol and
technique is to test a hypothesis based on scientific rigor. The hypothesis was
verified under systematic precision.

3.1 Model Specification

The pooled Ordinary Least Squares (Pooled OLS) regression model was used to
examine determinants of markup price in urban land. The model has become an
important tool which is utilized by several authors, for example, Pope and Pope
 Determinants of Urban Land Lease Market in an Emerging Economy:
Empirical Evidence from Ethiopia
456

(2012), Bayrau and Assefa (2017), Wineman and Saweda (2017), Quang and Vu
(2019), amongst others to estimate the price of land. Thus, the model can be
specified as follows:

where:
denotes the markup price of the urban land (dependent variable) for the bidder
and stands for regression intercept and regression coefficient estimates
(parameters)
signifies the vector of the predictor variables,
Denotes the land auction period in years, and stands for the disturbance term

The OLS regression model, equation [01], for the markup price can be rewritten as
follows:

3.2 Definition and Measurement of Variables

The markup price was considered as a dependent variable, which was computed by
the number of payment bidders offered for a plot measured in Ethiopian Birr5 minus
the base price of the plot. The markup price per urban plot was transformed into a
natural logarithm; the transformed variable (lnMarkup price) was utilized as the
outcome variable; while various categorical and continuous variables were also
employed as explanatory variables as illustrated in Table 1.

Table 1. Description and Definition of Variables included in the Regression Analysis

Variables Description
Markup price obtained by the amount bidders offered for a plot
Markup price
minus the base price of the plot, which is measured in Ethiopian Birr
Plot Size Size of the plot is measured in
A continuous variable indicating land lease payment completion
Payment Period
period measured in years
Auctioneers The monthly income of the auctioneers measured in Birr

5
Birr is the nomenclature for Ethiopian currency. Currently (September/2020), one Birr is
USD 36.51
 Hafte Gebreselassie Gebrihet, P. Pillay

457

Variables Description
Monthly Income
Distance The distance of plots to the center of the City measured in Kilometers
The base price of the plot per of land measured in Birr, which is
Base Price
provided by the City administration
Down payment measured in Birr, which is an initial payment offered
Down Payment
by bidders with a minimum threshold of 20 percent of its total price
A dummy variable demonstrating land use type (business =0, used as
Land-use Type
a reference category & residential =1)
A dummy variable indicating a plot grade (poor condition, middle,
and relatively batter development condition) (Transitional zones
Plot Grade
(grade-2) = 0, used as a reference category, Central Business District
(grade-1) = 1 and Sub-urban fringes (grade-3) = 2
A dummy variable representing a plot location in the sub-cities (Qiha
Plot Location = 0, used as a reference category; Adi-Haki=1; Ayder=2; Hawelti =3;
Semien =4; Hadnet =5)
A dummy variable representing the lease termination period (70
Lease Period
years =0, used as a reference category; 99 years=1)
A binary variable representing the gender of auctioneers (Female =0,
Sex
used as a reference category; male=0)
A dummy variable representing the plot auction period (2014 years
Plot Auction
=0, used as a reference category; 2015= 1; 2016=2; 2017=3; 2018=5;
Period
2019=5)
Source: Own Elaboration (2020).

3.3 Data Source and Sample Selection

This study considers plots as a unit of analyses and computes a set of urban land
lease market for a sample plot auction period. The study examined the determinant
factors associated with the markup price of urban land. To address this objective,
this study employed secondary data sourced from Mekelle municipality for the plot
auction period from 2014 to 2019. This study utilized a total of 2335 plots, of which
the largest 72 percent (1,671) were auctioned to residential urban land lease users,
while the remaining 28 percent (664) comprised of business urban land lease users.
The lease round period dataset facilitates the establishment and aggregate data of the
price of urban land per square for a given plot.

3.4 Methods of Data Analyses

Regarding the statistical analysis, descriptive and inferential analysis methods were
employed to analyze the data. Thus, all data arithmetic analyses were computed
using Stata version 16. It commenced with the descriptive statistics followed by
linear regression analysis. Descriptive analysis was employed to assess markup
price, base price, plot size, down payment, auctioneer monthly income, payment
period, and distance. Besides, descriptive analysis was utilized to compare the
markup price across land-use type, plot location, plot grade, sex, and plot auction
 Determinants of Urban Land Lease Market in an Emerging Economy:
Empirical Evidence from Ethiopia
458

period. Likewise, the trend of demand and supply for urban land lease across plot
auction period, trends in plots prepared for auction and actually sold across plot
auction period, trends in average markup price, and base price across the plot auction
period were examined. Most importantly, linear regression was used to explore the
determinants of the markup price.

4. Results

The Ethiopian urban land lease proclamation no. 721/2011 empowers regional states
and City administrations to allocate urban land for different purposes through
auction or allotment (FDRE, 2011). Accordingly, Mekelle City municipality
established land development and management processes to auction plots of urban
land prepared for various activities (TNRS, 2012). The municipality based on
“topography of the site, its economic, social and administrative infrastructure, and
urban plan” determines the benchmark price of a specific site of a plot (TNRS,
2012). The office released the plots of urban land for auction at the municipality’s
base price. The bidders would submit their willingness to pay for a particular plot in
a closed envelope. Finally, "the highest bidder shall be declared a winner based on
his/her bid price and the amount of down payment he/she offers" (FDRE, 2011;
TNRS, 2012).

4.1 Descriptive Statistics

The aggregate of the descriptive statistics for the continuous and categorical
variables was demonstrated in separate Tables. To compute the markup price, the
aggregate of the descriptive statistics for the continuous variables was demonstrated
in this study as illustrated in Table 2, while the summary of the descriptive statistics
for the categorical variables was conveyed in Table 3.

Table 2 illustrated the summary statistics of the continuous variables. The mean
price of a plot in is 13124.79 Birr with a standard deviation of 9187.67, while the
mean base price of a plot in is 637.27 Birr with a standard deviation of 205.64
Birr. In other words, on average, a 1 of plot was found to have a price of
13124.79 Birr, while the average rated base price is 637.27 Birr. The price/ and
base price are significant to estimate the markup price of a plot. The markup price is
computed by the amount bidders offer for a plot minus the base price. On average,
auctioneers are willing to pay 12487.52 Birr/ with a standard deviation of
9166.01 Birr. However, the gap between the minimum and maximum is 39050 Birr,
which dispersed the distribution. In this case, the median value of the markup
price/ of a plot, which is 10614 Birr was considered for discussion.

As described in Table 2, the mean plot size in Mekelle City is 268 with a
standard deviation of 150 . The median plot size demonstrates 250 , which is
the physical mid of the plots auctioned. Furthermore, Table 2 illustrates that on
 Hafte Gebreselassie Gebrihet, P. Pillay

459

average, auctioneers who won plots earn 68,902 Birr monthly. Moreover, the
average distance of a plot from the center is 3.81km. Auctioneers travel a minimum
of 1 km and a maximum of 8km to arrive at the center. The average down payment
of a plot per is 20.33 percent (Table 2). In other words, on average, auctioneers
initially pay 20.33 percent of the total price of a plot per . The average payment
completion period of a land lease is 44 years. The payment completion period is
included in the auctioneer's lease holding certificate (FDRE, 2011, p. 6232; TNRS,
2012).

Table 2. Descriptive Statistics of Mark-up Price

Variables Obs Mean Std. Dev. Median Min Max
Price of a plot/ 2,335 13124.79 9187.67 11221 701 40121
Base Price of a plot/ 2,335 637.27 205.64 539 250 1876
Markup Price of a plot/ 2,335 12487.52 9166.01 10614 95 39145
Plot Size in 2,335 268 150 250 108 2528
Auctioneers Monthly 2,335 68902 41,882 68900 10,000 199897
Income
Distance in km 2,335 3.81 2.01 2 1 8
Down Payment in percent 2,335 20.33 0.26 20.40 20 20.6
Payment Period in year 2,335 44 9 50 20 50
Source: Own Computation (2020).

Table 3 presented the summary statistics of the proportional differences in land lease
distribution across land-use types (business and residential use). Accordingly, out of
the total 2,335 plots transferred to auctioneers, approximately 71 percent (1,671) was
auctioned for residential use, while the remaining 28 percent (664) was auctioned for
business use. This implied that more plots are provided for residential purposes than
business utilization. Comparing the markup price across the land use type, the 644
plots categorized under business use were auctioned on average markup price of
13020.38 Birr, while the 1,671 plots categorized under residential use was auctioned
on average markup price of 12275.77 Birr (Table 3).

Hence, on average, the markup price of urban plot auctioned for business use is
744.61.24 Birr more than urban land auctioned for residential use. Furthermore, the
largest urban land lease 60.64 percent (1416) of the plots was found under plot
grade-three (Sub-Urban Fringes) followed by 29.50 percent (689) plots categorized
under grade-two (Transitional Zone), while the lowest 9.85 percent (230) plots were
categorized under grade-one (Central Business Districts). In other words, most of the
plots of land were auctioned without fulfilling the necessary economic, social, and
administrative infrastructures because plots under the Sub-Urban Fringes category
are considered lower in the standard. On average, the largest markup price of the
urban land lease was found under plot grade 1 (Central-Business District) with a
mean of 13237.37 Birr. The lowest markup price was found in Sub-Urban Fringes
with a mean of 2666 Birr (Table 3).
 Determinants of Urban Land Lease Market in an Emerging Economy:
Empirical Evidence from Ethiopia
460

Table 3 also described urban land lease locations across the plot auction period.
Accordingly, the average plot numbers supplied by Hadnet sub-city were 680
throughout the plot auction period followed by Hawelti and Ayder, which was 608
and 500 respectively. Semien and Qiha contributed a few plots – 380 and 87
respectively. The highest markup price of the urban land lease was in Ayder
(13132.67 Birr) followed by Adi-Haki (12509.65 Birr) and Semien (12408.38 Birr),
while the lowest markup price was in Qiha (11865.99 Birr). Auctioneers were more
likely to pay a premium for plots in Ayder and Adi-Haki because both the sub-cities
are relatively developed in terms of infrastructures and are close to the center, while
Qiha is comparatively less developed and distant to the center than other plot
locations.

Of the total 2,335 plots transferred to auctioneers, 82.23 percent (1,920) was won by
the male auctioneers while the remaining 17.77 percent (415) was won by female
auctioneers. It can be inferred that more plots were bought by male auctioneers
(Table 3). Comparing the markup price across gender, the 1920 male auctioneers
paid on average a markup price of 12496.92 Birr, while the 415 female auctioneers
paid on average a markup price of 12444.02 Birr. Hence, male auctioneers paid 52.9
Birr more than the female auctioneers. Table 3 also illustrated the summary statistics
of the proportional differences in the number of plots supplied across the plot
auction period (from 2014-2019). Consequently, out of the total 2,335 plots
transferred to auctioneers, the highest number of plots were supplied during 2018,
2016, and 2017 with a plot number of 664, 466, and 400 respectively. Comparing
the markup price across the plot auction period, the average markup price increased
at an accumulative rate across all plot auction periods (Table 3).

Table 3. Summary of the Descriptive Statistics for Categorical Variables

Varia Group The measure of Center and Dispersion for Markup Price
ble list Variable N mean Std. Dev. Midian min max
Land Busines 664 13020.4 9130.9 11894 196 38095
Use s
Type Resident 1671 12275.8 9174.1 9959 95 39145
ial
Plot Grade CBD 230 13237.4 9551 12897 196 39145
TZ 689 12278.8 9095.5 10192 96 39136
SUR 1416 2666.28 9176.1 11244 95 39115
Plot Qiha 152 11865.9 9125 8954 465 37895
Location Hadnet 680 12318.1 9286.1 9711 196 39115
Semien 308 12408.4 8879.8 10997 324 35144
Hawelti 608 12338.8 9149.2 9778 144 37514
Ayder 500 13132.7 9215.1 12352 95 39145
Adi-Haki 87 12509.7 9197.8 8950 594 38994
Lease 70 years 664 13020.4 9130.9 11894 196 38095
Period 99 years 1671 12275.8 9174.1 9959 95 39145
Sex male 1920 12275.8 9174.1 9959 95 39145
female 415 12444 9314.1 10508 144 37895
 Hafte Gebreselassie Gebrihet, P. Pillay

461

Varia Group The measure of Center and Dispersion for Markup Price
ble list Variable N mean Std. Dev. Midian min max
Plot 2014 187 2461.4 1300.7 2361 144 6907.9
Auction 2015 290 3169.98 1503.1 3145 95 9394.1
Period 2016 466 5091.5 1901.7 4739 576 12962
2017 400 11257.1 4619.6 11227 1951 36024
2018 664 19526.2 6119.7 19059 4406 36147
2019 328 24200.9 6090.2 24394 3754 39145
Note: Central Business District (CBD)= Grade 1; Transitional Zone (TZ)= Grade 2; Sub-
Urban Fringe (SUR)= Grade 3
Source: Own Computation (2020).

4.2 Trends of Supply and Demand for Urban Land Across Plot Auction Period

Figure 2 illustrates the trends of demand and supply for urban land across the plot
auction period. As indicated in Figure 2, the demand for urban land surpasses the
land supply. This is true across all plot auction periods specifically the number of
competitors highly increased after 2016. On the contrary, land supply has
demonstrated a continuous decline except in 2018. In other words, on average from
30 to 38 auctioneers compete for a single plot of land in Mekelle City.

Figure 2. Trends of demand and supply for urban land across plot auction period

Source: Own Computation (2020).

Figure 3 illustrates the number of urban plots supplied for lease tender and leased at
the interval of the sample plot auction period. As indicated in Figure 3, except in
2016 and 2017, not all urban plots supplied by the municipality were sold at the first
plot auction period. Although the demand for land outstrips the supply (Figure 2),
plots did not auction at its first plot auction period.

Figure 4 illustrates the gap between the average markup price and base price across
the urban land auction period. Accordingly, the trend of the average markup price
per increased steadily across all plot auction periods while the average plot base
price decreased persistently from 2017 to 2019. Moreover, the trend of the plot
 Determinants of Urban Land Lease Market in an Emerging Economy:
Empirical Evidence from Ethiopia
462

winning price demonstrated an increasing trend, which made the markup price to
have an increasing trend. In other words, the municipality's revenue increased from
lease round to lease round not because of the base price but the auctioneer’s
willingness to pay a premium for the plots.

Figure 3. Trends of urban land lease plots across plot auction period

Source: Own Computation (2020).

Figure 4. Average markup and base price across the year

Source: Own Computation (2020).

4.3 Main Findings

Table 4 illustrates the estimation outcomes for the determinant factors of the markup
price. A positive sign of the estimated regression coefficients reveals a positive
relationship between the outcome and predictor variables, while a negative sign
indicates the opposite. To mitigate the effect of heteroscedasticity, the markup price
per urban plot was transformed into a natural logarithm. Therefore, the transformed
variable (lnMarkup price) was utilized as the dependent variable. The result of R-
squared demonstrated that the predictor variables explained 60 percent of the
variations of the markup price (outcome variable). The findings of the regression
analysis revealed that the plot size associated positively with the markup price per
plot. A 1 increase in the size of a plot led to a 0.04 percent increase in the average
 Hafte Gebreselassie Gebrihet, P. Pillay

463

markup price of the plot, while holding other determinants of the urban land lease
fixed. Similarly, the lease payment period determined positively and significantly
the markup price per plot while other factors of the urban land lease remained
constant. Accordingly, for each additional year of the lease payment period, the
markup price per plot increased by 0.5 percent.

Furthermore, the estimation results revealed that the auctioneers’ average monthly
income associated positively with the markup price per plot, while other factors
remained constant. On average, a 1 percent increase in auctioneers’ monthly income
increased the markup price per plot by 0.056 percent, while controlling the
association of all other determinants of the urban land lease constant. Plot grade 2
(Transitional Zones) was controlled to explore the effect of the two extremes (grade
1 and grade 3). Consequently, compared to the plot grade-2 (Transitional Zones),
plots grouped under plot grade-1 (Central Business District) increased the markup
price per by 5.57 percent while other urban land lease determinants remained
constant.

Table 4. Estimated Results of OLS Model

lnMarkup price Coef. Std. Err. P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
Plot Size .000401*** .0001079 0.000 [.0001894 .0006126]
Payment Period .0049866*** .0016364 0.002 [.0017777 .0081955]
lnAuctioneers .0569639*** .0197928 0.004 [.0181504 .0957774]
Monthly Income
Distance -.0123602** .0060517 0.041 [-.0242274 -.000493]
Base Price -.0002178 .0002322 0.348 [-.0006731 .0002375]
Down Payment .0727821 .0635684 0.252 [-.0518749 .1974391]
Land Use Type (ref.= Business use)
Residential use 1.603766*** .0299426 0.000 [1.545049 1.662483]
Plot Grade (ref.= Transitional Zone)
Central .0571036** .0282593 0.043 [.0016874 .1125198]
Business
District (CBD)
Sub-Urban -.0827206* .0470808 0.079 [-.1750456 .0096044]
Fringe
Plot Location (ref.= Qiha)
Ayder .1289387** .0629731 0.041 [.0054492 .2524282]
Hawelti .1698289** .0681965 0.013 [.0360963 .3035615]
Semien .1036344 .0638406 0.105 [-.0215563 .2288251]
Hadnet .1003073 .0656136 0.126 [-.0283604 .2289749]
Adi-Haki .1928742** .0810342 0.017 [.033967 .3517814]
Lease Period (ref.= 70 years)
99 years .0420305 .0273285 0.124 [-.0115604 .0956215]
Sex (ref.= Female)
Male -.0100304 .0336682 0.766 [-.0760534 .0559925]
Plot Auction Period (ref.= 2014)
2015 .0763916 .0496606 0.124 [-.0209925 .1737756]
2016 .0513409 .0492467 0.297 [-.0452313 .1479132]
 Determinants of Urban Land Lease Market in an Emerging Economy:
Empirical Evidence from Ethiopia
464

lnMarkup price Coef. Std. Err. P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]

2017 .0472559 .0463595 0.308 [-.0436547 .1479132]
2018 .102464** .0449641 0.023 [0142898 .1906382]
2019 .0976823** .0442836 0.027 [.0108425 .1845221]
_cons 5.327703*** 1.247457 0.000 [2.881451 7.773954]
Number of obs = 2,335 R-squared = 0.5989
F (21, 2313) = 161.07
Prob > F = 0.0000 Root MSE = .59514
Note: i) ref. = denotes base reference; ii) (*), (**), and (***) denote significance at 10, 5,
and 1 percent levels, respectively
Source: Own Computation (2020).

Most importantly, the land-use types revealed a strong and positive association with
the markup price/ . Statistically, compared to business land-use, residential
land-use increased the markup price per plot by 160.34 percent, while other
determinant factors of the urban land lease remained constant. Furthermore, the plot
location was among the key determinant factors associated with the urban land lease
markup price. Hence, compared to the urban land plots located in the Qiha sub-city,
the urban land lease plots located in Ayder, Hawelti, and Adi-Haki sub-cities
increased the markup price per plot by 12.89, 16.98, and 19.28 percent, respectively
while holding fixed other determinants of the markup price. The coefficient for the
plot auction period revealed a positive and significant association with the markup
price in the last two years. In other words, compared to urban land lease plots
auctioned in 2014, those auctioned in 2018 and 2019 increased the markup price by
10 percent and 9.76 percent, respectively. The same result was reflected in the
descriptive statistics (Table 3).

On the contrary, the results of this study revealed that the distance of the plots to the
center of the City associated negatively with the markup price of the urban land
lease. An increase in one-kilometer distance of the plot from the center decreased the
markup price of the urban land lease by 1.2 percent while the other factors remained
constant. Auctioneers paid a premium for a plot closer to the center of the City,
while less for plots distant from the center. Furthermore, the finding revealed that
urban land plot grade-3 associated negatively with the markup price of the urban
land lease. Taking plot grade-2 (Transitional Zones) as a benchmark, the Sub-Urban
Fringes (plot grade-3) decreased the markup price of the urban land lease by an 8.27
percent, while other aspects remained constant (Table 4). Among the variables
included in the regression analysis, base price, down payment, lease period, and sex
of the auctioneers do not have a significant association with the markup price.

5. Discussion

The present study filled the gap vis-à-vis, the determinants of urban land lease
market in Mekelle City, Ethiopia. The descriptive statistics suggest that the markup
price offered by auctioneers varies across land-use type, plot location, grade, and
 Hafte Gebreselassie Gebrihet, P. Pillay

465

plot auction period. The number of urban plots demanded was higher than those of
the quantity supplied (Figure 2). On the other hand, the number of plots supplied
was not sold in the first-round (Figure 3). Statistically speaking, on average 176 (8
percent) of the plots were not sold at the first bid period. This demonstrates that
auctioneers are not concluding a contract and taking the land they have won.
Questions can be raised: if there is an unmet demand, why plots were not sold at the
first bid round. A possible response is land speculation. Urban speculators bid a
higher price for the plot of land and won. The speculators knew that the only cash
that they would lose if they failed to enter a contract with the municipal office to
start construction is the Compulsory Payment Order (CPO). The speculators agreed
secretly with the second/third-ranked bidder and offered them more money than the
CPO. If the speculators did not agree with either the second or third bidder and if
both (former and latter) failed to afford the price, then the plot would be worthless.
Because speculators gamble urban land tenders, the municipality is compelled for a
second and possibly a third-round tender.

The study revealed both supply and demand-driven factors associated with plot
markup price; and a positive and strong association between urban plot size and
markup price of the urban land lease, inferring auctioneers paid a premium for larger
plots size (Table 4). Thus, estimates of the markup price/willingness to pay of
auctioneers could be significantly increased by the plot size.

Another key determinant factor associated with the markup price of the urban land
was the lease payment completion period (Table 4). An increase in the payment
period resulted in an increased markup price of the leased urban land. This study's
finding is consistent with a previous study by Bayrau and Assefa (2017), which
indicated that the lease payment completion period associated with the markup price
of the urban land lease tender. As indicated in the Tigray national regional state
regulation no. 56/2012, auctioneers can pay their lease debt for a plot of up to 50
years (TNRS, 2012). Hence, due to the extended payment period prescribed by the
regulation, auctioneers pay a premium price for a plot of urban land, implying that
the municipality is making money by extending the lease payment completion
period.

Distance from the center of the City to the plot location was one of the major
determinant factors that associated negatively with the markup price of the land
(Table 4). Thus, the more the auctioneers travel a distance from the center of the
City to where the urban plot is located, the lower the markup price of the urban land.
The finding of this study is also supported by several previous studies conducted by,
inter alia, Ding and Zhao (2014), Jaeger (2013), Malaitham et al. (2018), Gedal and
Ellen (2018), which revealed that remoteness of a plot and the auctioneer's
willingness to pay for a particular plot had an inverse relationship. Accordingly,
when a plot is closer to the center of the City, the number of competitors increases
and then the markup price of the plot rises notwithstanding the base price.
 Determinants of Urban Land Lease Market in an Emerging Economy:
Empirical Evidence from Ethiopia
466

Moreover, the findings of this study demonstrated that the land use type (residential
and business urban land uses) associated strongly with the markup price of a plot
(Table 4). Hence, the present findings revealed that compared to the business urban
land use, residential utilization associated positively with the markup price of a plot.
Consistent with the present study, certain empirical studies revealed that the land use
type is associated with the markup price of land (Yuan et al., 2019). Another key
determinant factor associated with the markup price of the urban land was the urban
land plot location. This study revealed that an urban plot location is associated
significantly with the markup price of the land. Thus, the finding of the present study
is consistent with those of other empirical studies conducted by Yuan et al. (2019,
which reported that the location of plots is associated positively with the markup
price of a plot.

The urban plot grade was also among the major determinant factors associated with
the markup price of the land. The results of this study revealed that an urban plot
with relatively better access to physical and administrative infrastructure services
had a higher markup price than an urban plot with relatively poor access to basic
infrastructure services. In other words, the municipality collects more revenue from
plots grouped under the Central Business District (Table 4). This study’s findings are
also consistent with the criteria set by Mekelle municipality, which assigns a higher
benchmark price for plots with relatively better development conditions.

Furthermore, the last two plot auction periods (2018 and 2019) associated positively
with the markup price of urban land (Table 4). On average, 45 auctioneers compete
per plot in both land-use types in the last two plot auction periods (Figure 3). This
number is fourfold higher than the number of auctioneers per plot in Addis Ababa,
the capital city of Ethiopia. The study conducted by Bayrau and Assefa (2017)
revealed that the average number of bidders per plot in Addis Ababa ranges from 10
to 12. One of the reasons is that in the last two years the country has been faced with
ethnic-based pandemonium. Mekelle City (the main City of Tigray Region, one of
the nine regional states of Ethiopia) is relatively peaceful and attracts domestic and
foreign investors' interest.

Consequently, the competition for plots for business use escalates ominously.
Furthermore, the Tigreans are targeted increasingly because of their ethnic
association with the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF), which officially
separated from the incumbent political party. This led to the displacement of many
Tigreans from all aspects of the state and thereby escalated the competition of plots
for residential use in Mekelle.

The result of the positive and significant association between auctioneer’s monthly
income and markup price; the non-significant association between the base price and
markup price has significant policy implications. The municipality is earning
revenue not because it determined the base price but because of the increasing
auctioneer’s monthly income.
 Hafte Gebreselassie Gebrihet, P. Pillay

467

6. Conclusions and Policy Implications

Ethiopia is undertaking an unprecedented urbanization process in which substantial

parcels of rural land have been converted to urban use. This rapid urbanization has
generated intensified supply and demand-driven challenges for public policy. From
the supply side, relocating land from the rural to urban areas through fair
compensation to landowners to providing optimum urban land plots for auction as
per the existing demand is an enormous challenge. From the demand side, getting
land to be auctioned fairly; preventing land auction from being dominated by several
wealthy individuals and land speculators; using urban land as a source of
government revenue is a challenging task. Hence, the municipal government should
ensure equitable access to urban land by controlling land speculation and
harmonizing the supply and demand for urban land.

The price for a particular plot of land was significantly increased by the plot size and
extended payment completion period. With a high demand for housing in Mekelle,
urban land auctioned for residential use was found to have a strong positive
association with the markup price. This is equally true of plot location. Plots located
in infrastructurally developed sub-cities had a positive and significant association
with the increased price of urban land. The existing ethnic-based conflicts in the
country in the last two lease auction years have also contributed towards the
escalation of land lease price resulting in an increased markup price. Moreover, the
municipality is making more money from the plots grouped under Central Business
District and plots near the City because plots grouped under Sub-Urban Fringes and
the longer the distance from the center of the City to the location of the plot
contributed towards an insignificant amount to the municipal revenue. Therefore, the
municipality should enhance the physical and administrative infrastructure to
increase its revenue.

Generally, the theories of location and central place are vital for this study in
identifying the predictor variables to markup price. Location theory assumes that the
price of land reflects the development condition of the plot, which extended from the
Central Business District, Transitional Zone, and to the Sub-Urban Fringe and
decline its value with increasing distance from the center. Similarly, central place
theory considers location, distance to the Central Business District, plot size in ,
financial flows, and infrastructural expansion as determinants of the price of land.
On the other hand, the findings of this study supported each theory positively. This
study revealed that plots grouped under the Central Business District; a short
distance to the center; and categorized under residential land use type play a
significant role in determining the price of a piece of land.

7. Limitations and Future Research Directions

This study is based on a case study design that examines the determinants of the
urban land lease market in an emerging economy with empirical evidence from
 Determinants of Urban Land Lease Market in an Emerging Economy:
Empirical Evidence from Ethiopia
468

Mekelle City in Ethiopia. The decentralized nature of urban land administration has
created room for different regional states to follow their own path of the urban land
market based on the federal urban land legislation. Hence, the results of this study
may not represent the cities of the other regional states in the country. Therefore, this
study encourages future researchers to focus on assessing the variables of the present
study to provide a holistic input for policy makers at the country level.

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