Climate Change: Suhaib A. Bandh Editor

Suhaib A.
Bandh Editor
Climate
Change
The Social and Scientific Construct
Climate Change
Suhaib A. Bandh
Editor
Climate Change
The Social and Scientific Construct
Editor
Suhaib A. Bandh
Department of Higher Education
Government of Jammu and Kashmir
Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, India
ISBN 978-3-030-86289-3 ISBN 978-3-030-86290-9 (eBook)

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86290-9
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Contents
Understanding Climate Change: Scientific Opinion and Public

Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Fayaz A. Malla, Aiman Mushtaq, Suhaib A. Bandh, Irteza Qayoom,
Anh Tuan Hoang, and Shahid-e-Murtaza
Threats to Humanity from Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
M. M. Majedul Islam
Understanding the Causes of Climatic Change in the Environment . . . . . 37
Zia Ur Rahman Farooqi, Muhammad Sabir, Abdul Qadeer,
Alishba Naeem, Ghulam Murtaza, and Hamza Yousaf
Beyond Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation Strategies,
and Influencing Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Vahid Karimi, Naser Valizadeh, Sadegh Rahmani, Masoud Bijani,
and Mandana Karimi
Climate Change and Interconnected Risks to Sustainable
Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Charles C. Anukwonke, Enohetta B. Tambe, Daniel C. Nwafor,
and Khired T. Malik
Climate Change and Its Impacts on Businesses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
Vicente Manzione Filho
Climate Change Hastening Heatwaves: A Pakistan Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . 103
Muhammad Mahroz Hussain, Abdul Qadeer, Zia Ur Rahman Farooqi,
and Muhammad Ashir Hameed
Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Horticulture . . . . . . . . . . 117
Mounes Sadat Eftekhari
Ecological Responses to Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
Mohammad Pouresmaeily
v
vi Contents
Climate Change and Concurrency of Extreme Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151

Ehsan Modiri
Land–Coast–Deep-Sea: Restoration of Australia’s Great Barrier
Reef in the Era of Mass Ecological Collapse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
Hadi El-Shayeb and Farah El-Shayeb
International Climate Change Agreements: Setting a Global
Agenda and Calling for Action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
Sirisha Indukuri
Carbon Dioxide Capture and Sequestration to Achieve Paris
Climate Targets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
Pushp Bajaj and Saurabh Thakur
Carbon Credit and Climate Change Nexus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
Jasmeet Singh Bajaj
Community Resilience to Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259
Debbie Bartlett
Realigning Developmental Programmes for Reducing Climate
Vulnerability for Adaptation: Case Study of Mahatma Gandhi
National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme in India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279
Indu K. Murthy, Kritika Adesh Gadpayle, Pratima Bisen,
and Tashina Madappa Cheranda
Hydrogen: Towards a Complete Clean Energy Transition
and Achieving Carbon Neutrality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299
Sameer Guduru
Climate Change and Politics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311
Mohd. Yousuf Bhat
Technological Solutions to Mitigating Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329
Richard Betts
Perspectives of Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369
Atefeh Ahmadi Dehrashid, Naser Valizadeh,
Mohammad Hossein Gholizadeh, Hossein Ahmadi Dehrashid,
and Bahram Nasrollahizadeh
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 389
Understanding Climate Change:
Scientific Opinion and Public Perspective
Fayaz A. Malla, Aiman Mushtaq, Suhaib A. Bandh, Irteza Qayoom,

Anh Tuan Hoang, and Shahid-e-Murtaza
Abstract Since the late nineteenth century, the earth’s average surface temperature
has risen by about 1.18 °C, mainly due to increased carbon dioxide emission into
the atmosphere and other anthropogenic activities. Most of the warming happened
during the last four decades, with the most recent seven years being the warmest.
As shown by global observations, climate change is ongoing, and extensive scien-
tific analysis shows that the greenhouse gases released by human activity are its
primary causes. Based on well-established data, most climate science and the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change agree that
climate change occurs primarily due to human-induced causes and therefore affirm
this stance. Although natural activities contribute significantly to climate variability,
several evidence suggests that human influences have had an increasingly domi-
nant impact on the observed global warming since the mid-twentieth century. It is
a crucial problem that threatens to cause significant natural, social, and economic
impacts worldwide. So, it becomes imperative to clearly understand the phenomenon
to adopt appropriate mitigation measures with good accuracy and precision.
Keywords Climate change · Understanding · Public perspective · Scientific

opinion · Climate scientists
F. A. Malla (B)
Department of Higher Education, Government Degree College Tral, Srinagar,
Jammu and Kashmir, India
A. Mushtaq · I. Qayoom
Sri Pratap College Campus, Cluster University Srinagar, Srinagar, India
S. A. Bandh
Department of Higher Education, Government Degree College D.H. Pora, Kulgam, Srinagar,
A. T. Hoang
Institute of Engineering, Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology (HUTECH), Ho Chi Minh
City, Vietnam
Shahid-e-Murtaza
Department of Higher Education, Government Degree College Pulwama, Pulwama,
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 1

S. A. Bandh (ed.), Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86290-9_1
2 F. A. Malla et al.
1 Introduction
The term “climate change” refers to a wide range of physical phenomena as

well as a public policy concern and is often used interchangeably with the term
“global warming” (Weber and Stern 2011). Scientists now know that various factors,
including solar radiation, the earth’s orbit around the Sun, seismic activity, ocean
tides, and tectonic flats, contribute to long-term climate change on Earth (Leiserowitz
and Anthony 2007; Britt 2007). With a method of collective learning that relies
on combining observational data and creating hypotheses and trends in evidence
synthesis that have been used for 150 years, the scientific understanding of climate
change has progressed significantly (National Research Council 2010).
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) publishes a report on
the state of climate change science every six to seven years (Cook 2019). (IPCC).
Since the Second Review Report (Houghton et al. 1996), their reports on the human
contribution to current global warming have developed dramatically from a notice-
able human influence on global climate change to the dominant cause of observed
warming since the mid-twentieth century in the fifth review report. Various other
experiments have also been carried out to determine the degree of agreement among
climate scientists about human-induced global warming and reinforce the IPCC’s
scientific consensus report. Several surveys have reached a consensus of 97%, with
90–100% experimental evidences suggesting that humans are the primary source of
global warming.
2 Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
There is considerable scientific consensus that climate change is occurring mostly as

a result of human activity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a
research organisation charged with reviewing the status of climate science to advise
policymaking (IPCC 2005), established in 1995 that “the majority of evidence”
favoured humans influencing the global climate (Houghton et al. 1995; Oreskes
2010). The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of IPCC claimed that there is unam-
biguous warming and stated that it is difficult to account for the global climate
changes of the past 50 years without including the human activities (Alley et al.
2007; Oreskes 2010). Recently, IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) published
in 2013, updated its report and stated that it is “extremely likely” that human activ-
ities are causing climate change (IPCC 2013a, b). This IPCC report is supported
by many leading scientific organisations and scientists globally. It is also supported
by many comprehensive reviews of the peer-reviewed literature on climate change
and expert surveys (van der Linden et al. 2015). However, a minority of scien-
tists deny the consensus position of anthropogenic climate change, and they label
themselves as “sceptics” (Dunlap 2013; Leiserowitz et al. 2012). This has created a
divergence between public perception and the actual scientific consensus (Cook et al.
Understanding Climate Change: Scientific Opinion and Public … 3
2013), which has decreased the public support for climate adaptation and mitigation
policies (Aklin and Urpelainen 2014; Ding et al. 2011; McCright et al. 2013; van
der Linden et al. 2014). Recent studies have also confirmed that 97–98% of climate
scientists affirm the presence of anthropogenic climate change (Anderegg et al. 2010;
Cook et al. 2013; Doran and Zimmerman 2009; Oreskes 2004) with some estimates as
high as 100% (Powell 2019). Since the 1990s, several studies have been carried out to
assess the level of agreement on anthropogenic global warming within the scientific
community (Bray 2010; Cook et al. 2016) by using different methodologies, like,
surveying members of the relevant scientific community, analysing peer-reviewed
climate research, compiling public statements by scientists and mathematical anal-
ysis of citation (Cook et al. 2016). Naomi Oreskes conducted a qualitative analysis
of the abstracts of 928 articles published in peer-reviewed scientific journals between
1993 and 2003 (Powell 2019) and concluded that 75% of the articles explicitly or
implicitly accepted the consensus view; 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate
and took no position on current anthropogenic climate change; and there was no
paper that disagreed with the consensus position on Anthropogenic Global Warming
(Oreskes 2004). Cook et al. (2013) conducted a review of 11,944 peer-reviewed arti-
cles published between 1991 and 2011 using the keywords “global climate change”
and “global warming” and found that 97.1% of scientists endorsed the consensus
position on Anthropogenic global warming (Cook et al. 2013, 2016), which is consis-
tent with previous surveys of the scientific literature on human-caused climate change
(Anderegg et al. 2010; Doran and Zimmerman 2009; Oreskes 2004). In addition to
the abstract analysis of papers, the self-rating of authors was also conducted, which
additionally established an increase in the scientific consensus on anthropogenic
global warming from 1991 to 2011. Powell (2019) recently found that the consensus
has reached 100% after analysing 11,602 peer-reviewed publications published in the
first seven months of 2019. Though many attempts and approaches have been used
by different scientists in estimating the extent to which scientists agree on climate
change caused by humans, including analysis of peer-reviewed literature and survey
of experts, various studies endorse the man-induced nature of Climate change.
3 Opinion of Leading Scientific Organisations on Climate

Change
In contemporary times, the dynamic climate regime of the earth is unquestionably

far from normal. The global dimension of this subject demands to be governed at
an international platform having legislated authority to stir the issue at a global
scale. International environmental conventions, international bodies, multilateral
environmental negotiations, and environmental non-governmental organisations
constitute what is referred to as the “world environmental regime” (Meyer et al.
1997). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was specifically structured in
1988 to deal with climate change by “assessing the influence of greenhouse gas
emissions on climate change, as well as its potential effect on societies” and devise
“realistic response strategies for the management of the climate change issue” (IPCC
1990). According to IPCC’s AR5, the global average surface temperature would
increase between 0.3 and 4.8 °C by 2100 (IPCC 2013a, b). Global climate change,
according to the American Anthropological Association, exacerbates underlying
socioeconomic problems, causes relocation, destabilises governments, and acceler-
ates epidemic transmissions (Shaffer 2017). United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) unanimously predicted that 2° warming of our planet
would have dire consequences (Wittneben et al. 2012). A major share of anthro-
pogenic GHG emissions is contributed by methane (44%), followed by N2 O (29%)
and CO2 (27%) (Gerber et al. 2013). Over the years, the Global Warming Potential
(GWP) of CH4 , N2 O, and CO2 calculated by IPCC and UNFCCC show considerable
variations. The latest assessments reveal higher GWP than previous estimates over a
100-year time horizon. FAO statistics for 2001–2003 reveal that annual global CO2
emissions in the meat transportation sector amounted to about 800–850 thousand
tonnes (Steinfeld et al. 2006). Anthropogenic activities have contributed 500 billion
tons of carbon in the last 250 years, and at present, with accelerated emission rates,
the next 500 billion tons would be added in just 30 years (trillionthton.org 2012). As
per UNFCCC, energy consumption and emissions generated by developing countries
treading the path of development are bound to increase (Preamble, FCCC). Climate
change poses significant and intensifying risks on the basic determinants of health,
like access to safe and potable water, adequate sanitation, food security and housing,
healthy occupational and environmental conditions (WHO 2008), infrastructure,
agriculture and natural ecosystems (IPCC 2014). It has been established that
climate change would result in cataclysmic weather episodes at increased frequency
and duration through the twenty-first century, negatively impacting human life in
numerous ways (IPCC 2014). Intense heatwaves, droughts, severe floods, aggravated
tropical cyclone activity, altered precipitation patterns can disrupt water availability,
food security, damage infrastructure (Hestres 2015; IPCC 2007a, b; Wittneben et al.
2012), potentially exhausting a significant portion of economic resources. Incidences
of malaria and other infectious diseases would also escalate due to the swelling of
the vector population at warmer temperatures (Perkins et al. 2018; Rajamani 2010).
Although the extent to which these hazards would occur is uncertain (IPCC 2007a,
b), it would particularly be problematic for small island nations and technologically
backward countries but generally felt across the globe (Adger et al. 2006). IPCC has
predicted a temperature increase of 0.5–1 °C in the presence of extreme mitigation
measures and 3–6 °C in the worst-case scenario (IPCC 2001a, b, 2007a, b). Studies
indicate that in Latin American countries, these changes would deplete plant genetic
resources, accelerate desertification, lead to salinisation of agricultural lands (high
confidence), and decrease the rice yields by 2020s (medium confidence) (IPCC
2007a, b; Laderach et al. 2011). The after-effects of extreme weather activity are the
principal reasons that amplify an area’s socioeconomic and environmental vulner-
ability (Adger 1999). Geographically, there could be a shift in the vulnerability of
different areas and a re-localisation of epicentres responsible for food security as
an outcome of various climatic and non-climatic threats (FAO 2008). The harmful
consequences of climate change are particularly severe in countries where rain-fed
agriculture is the principal source of food and wealth (FAO 2008).
Among the human population, children are most susceptible to the negative
impacts of climate change (WHO 2018) as their physiological defence systems are
still developing. They are also more vulnerable to food scarcity, economic break-
down, and migrationthe indirect effects of climate change (Akresh 2016). UNICEF
forecasts that the most severe effects of climate change will be felt in low- to middle-
income nations with an 85% worldwide kid population (UNICEF 2014). ‘Unless We
Act Now, the report published by UNICEF, details the impact of climate change on
children, particularly the most vulnerable (UNICEF 2015).
The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC states that a temperature increase
of 2–3 °C above pre-industrial levels could result in the bio-diversity loss of 20–
30% plant and animal species (IPCC 2014), thus establishing climate change as
one of the direct drivers of bio-diversity loss (UNEP 2012). A significant portion
of youth acknowledges the negative consequences of climate change (Tranter and
Skrbis 2014) and are concerned about the manifestation of its impact in their own
lives (UNICEF UK 2013). The global perspective regarding climate change was also
echoed in the 2015 Paris Agreement. It is “an urgent and potentially irreversible
threat to human societies and the planet” (Sanson and Burke 2020). For addressing
climate change, policies are conceptualised around mitigation and adaptation strate-
gies (IPCC 2007a, b). These two can become highly effective if incorporated into
national and regional plans (FAO 2009b). Climate change is a problematic subject
owing to the stakeholders’ competing interests.
Currently, stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere is the
priority of environmental organisations to prevent serious disturbances in the climate
system due to anthropogenic activities (UNFCCC, Art.2 (Rajamani 2010)). The
world leaders decided at the CoP-16 (Mexico) to “reduce emissions and provide
funding for adaptation (to climate change) in underdeveloped nations”. There have
been heated arguments on sharing the burden for mitigating GHG emissions under
UNFCCC (Paavola 2005). The Paris Agreement under the aegis of UNFCCC empha-
sised the induction of non-state members to utilise their capabilities in combating
climate change and decentralising climate governance (Jordan et al. 2015). For
example, Greenpeace USA strongly opposed the Waxman-Markey bill (the Amer-
ican Clean Energy and Security Act) for inadequately equipped and favouring fossil
fuel companies (Pooley 2010). Under its ‘Beyond Coal Campaign, Sierra Club
focuses on replacing about one-third of the U.S. coal power plants with renewable
energy alternatives and opposes coal extraction in Appalachia and Wyoming’s
Powder River Basin (sierraclub.org, n.d.). Paris Agreement (2016) was the first
practical global commitment against climate change where each country worked out
its plan for important reductions in the carbon intensity of its GDP by 2030. It aims
to curb the global temperature upsurge strictly below 2 °C and preferably within
1.5 °C compared to the pre-industrial levels (U.N. 2015). Being at the greatest risk
of climate change impacts, small island states have resolved to restrict the GHG
concentrations under 350 ppm CO2 eq and cut down CO2 emissions by more than
85% by 2050 (AOSIS 2010). The drastic reductions in the emission of GHGs as
proposed by different countries revolves around decarbonising the energy sector and
promoting renewable energy sources (Perkins et al. 2018), significant alterations in
socio-political establishments, restructuring the economic systems, technological
systems, organisational reforms, and the organising systems (den Elzen et al. 2009;
IPCC 2007a, b). The current climate change trends demand our swiftly switching
over to cleaner energy alternatives while simultaneously making efforts to bring
down GHG concentrations in the atmosphere, without which a temperature increase
of 4.8 °C is expected in the current century (IPCC 2014).
4 The Public Perspective of Climate Change
Gallup polls done in 2007 and 2008 in 127 countries found that almost a third of the
world’s population has never heard of global warming. The percentage of people who
claimed knowing something substantial about global warming ranged between 15%
in Liberia to 95% in Japan. The median number of people reporting awareness of
global warming in these 127 countries was 62%. Global warming public perception
tends are reported to be higher in developed economies and lower in developing
economies. Almost everyone surveyed in Japan and Finland reported awareness of
global warming. However, less than a quarter of respondents in African countries such
as Liberia and Benin know about global warming and climate change. in India about
35% population has reported awareness of climate change (Pelham and Brett 2009).
In most countries surveyed, climate change is seen as a significant threat. People
in Greece are worried, with 90% of them marking climate change as a substantial
danger. South Korea, France, Spain, and Mexico all have deep opinions on climate
change. Americans are less concerned with climate change, with 59% believing it as
a significant threat. The least likely to consider climate change poses a substantial
danger to their country are those in Russia (43%), Nigeria (41%), and Israel (38%)
(Poushter and Huang 2019).
According to a survey conducted by Leiserowitz (2013), public awareness of some
serious facets of climate change has increased since the late 1990s, but the United
States’ concerns about climate change remain mild, as evidenced by the belief that
future improvements will be more global in scope but not necessarily local. Despite
some scepticism, the poll showed that most Americans believe in global warming
(Seymour 2008). While 71% of Americans believe in global warming, just 48% feel
there is scientific consensus on why it occurs, and 40% say there is a significant
dispute on the matter (Leiserowitz 2007).
5 Climate Change as Seen Through the Lens of the Earth’s

Energy Flows
Since the dawn of industrialization, human actions have been the primary cause of
climate change (IPCC 2013a, b). Growing CO2 from the fossil fuel burning domi-
nates the growth of greenhouse gases (Trenberth 2020), which can trap the outgoing
longwave infrared radiations from the surface of earth and atmosphere. Hence, with
the increasing concentration of GHGs, Earth’s atmosphere warms until the outgoing
longwave radiations increase to match the absorbed solar radiations.
Earth’s weather and climate are determined by the amount of energy received
from the Sun. Its energy budget explains that the climate is in equilibrium and doesn’t
depend on incoming and outgoing radiations; rather, it depends on the interaction
of incoming energy with the earth through scattering, reflection, absorption, and
transformation into other forms of energy. In the earth’s climate system, energy
could be transformed, transported, and processed through several pathways, with
most of the research suggesting that 30% of solar energy is reflected. In comparison,
the remaining 70% is converted and transformed into different other forms. Sun is
the sole energy source for Earth (Fig. 1), making the solar flow the most dominant
energy flow on earth. Around 1.74 × 105 TW of power (equivalent to 4 million
tons of oil) is received every second by the earth. Although it is a small portion of
the Sun’s total power output of 4.1 × 1014 TW in all directions, still the amount is
enormous (International Energy Agency 2020). The other forms of energy such as
nuclear, geothermal, and tidal also contribute to the total energy budget of the earth.
Even though these energies contribute less, they are critical in ensuring the energy
balance of the earth. Around 1 TW of nuclear fuels is used, which doesn’t originate
from the Sun, and about 44 TW is harvested from geothermal sources. Likewise,
around 3TW energy comes from tidal forces acting between the Earth and Moon
(Fig. 2).
Under balanced conditions, the atmosphere may be thought of as the average
energy path that incoming solar radiations travel to maintain the system’s overall
energy balance. This energy balance and these average energy routes adjust in
Fig. 1 Energy flows on the earth

Fig. 2 Specific pathways within the dominant solar flow
response to external radiative forces and internal redistribution that ultimately deter-
mines the future climate change. Climate model simulations over multiple centuries
show that the system generates its variability while in equilibrium. Internal variability
is dominated by weather systems and the irregular character of air circulations on
a daily or weekly time frame. It has been found that internal variability correlates
with long-term patterns in the oceans and atmosphere, such as the North Atlantic
Oscillations (NAO) (Herrell et al. 2002), El-Nino Southern Oscillation (El-Nino
Southern Oscillation) (Mcphaden et al. 2006), and Atlantic Oscillation (Atlantic
Oscillation) (Connolley 1997; Knight et al. 2005). These forms of heterogeneity
transfer energy within the ocean and among the other components of the climate
system. The climate system’s internal “noise” is an essential concept in understanding
climate change experienced or simulated. In simplest terms, climate change happens
when an external force disturbs the climate equilibrium (Palmer 2012).
Solar irradiance in general, natural or man-made aerosols, and ambient greenhouse
gass all contribute to the climate system’s “external forcing”. The relative relevance
of these factors in establishing the earth’s climatic record can be evaluated within the
context of the climate system (Hegerl et al. 2007). Climate sensitivity is a commonly
used parameter for interpreting climate change predictions. It is characterised as the
global surface temperature’s equilibrium response to an imposed change in radiative
forcing (Meehl et al. 2011). Models with high climate sensitivity, on the other hand,
predict a smaller rise in surface temperature under the same CO2 emission scenario.
There is a solution to climate change, but it depends on how big climate feedback will
be Stocker et al. (2018). The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will fluctuate
in the future. Another important parameter in determining the rate of temperature rise
is the ocean’s ability to absorb heat (Raper et al. 2002). As a result, climate change
projections are contingent on how energy systems respond to growing greenhouse
gas concentrations.
6 Climate Change and the Radiative Forcing
Radiative forcing is a term that refers to an energy imbalance imposed on the earth’s
climate system externally by human activities (e.g. volcanic emissions, deliberate
land modification, change in solar energy output, anthropogenic emission of aerosols,
GHG’s, and their precursors). It is defined as a radiative reaction to a forcing factor
(such as CO2 ) that results in temperature fluctuations significantly greater than those
observed under normal weather circumstances. Based on various criteria, radiative
forcing can be defined by multiple parameters, such as instantaneous, stratospheri-
cally adjusted, and effective radiative forcing. It is commonly expressed in terms of
watts per square metre (W/m2 ) and is not readily visible. It provides a simple quan-
titative basis for comparing the global average temperature response to different
agents. The ability to consume I.R. radiation from the earth through anthropogenic
GHGs dictates the increase in radiative forcing, which is usually positive when these
gases’ concentrations increase. Radiative forcing is dependent on parameters such as
the quantity of GHGs in the atmosphere, the wavelengths at which the gas molecules
absorb, and the GHGs’ absorption per molecule. Radiative forcing is seen as a valu-
able way to assess climatic effects against radiative disturbances. In order to apply
radiative forcing functionally, it is expected that a general link exists between global
mean forcing and global average surface temperature (IPCC 1996).
Between pre-industrial (1750) and modern times, the radiative force rises owing to
the well-mixed greenhouse gases. Forcing caused by stratospheric ozone (O3 ) deple-
tion is estimated to be −0.15 Wm−2 between 1979 and 1997. Although increased
levels of CH4 , CO, NOx, and nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC) are driving changes
in tropospheric O3 , their precise contributions have yet to be determined. To put this
in perspective, the global annual mean radiative forcing is estimated to be 0.04 Wm−2
for sulphate aerosols, 0.02 Wm−2 for biofuels, 0.10 Wm−2 for fossil fuel organic
carbon aerosols, and 0.20 Wm−2 for black carbon aerosols from fossil fuel sources.
Mineral dust aerosols are estimated to be between 0.06 and 0.04 Wm−2 annually.
However, there has been a low scientific understanding of how sulphate aerosols,
burning of biomass, and organic carbon fuels affect the radiative forcing.
Global mean radiative forcing estimates have been made for various potential
projections (up to 2100) of trace gases and aerosol pollution (Nakićenović et al. 2000).
While the figures from different scenarios vary significantly, the findings suggest that
the pushing (measured in relation to pre-industrial times in 1750) attributed to trace
gases in aggregate is expected to increase. In each scenario, the radiative forcing
produced by direct aerosol differs and the direct aerosol effects are estimated to be
much less than those of CO2 . The spatial dimensions of potential forcing cannot be
predicted. The change in aerosol radiative forcing (both direct and indirect) compared
to 2000 is expected to be smaller.
7 Spatio-Temporal Measurement of Climate Change
Since the late 1800s, meteorologists have measured weather characteristics from
land-based stations, and, more recently, weather balloons have been used for this
purpose. In 1960, meteorologists started gathering weather data by using satellites.
Since satellites see a broader and more precise picture above the earth’s surface,
it is essential for chronicling global climate change. Decades of information have
been collected from satellites on pollution, fires, ocean temperature, patterns of sea
currents, ice borders, volcanic ash clouds, and many other climatic features. Scientists
have built ingenious ways to recreate the past of the earth’s environment. Paleo-
climatologists use a wide range of methods to learn about the climate of the distant
past and even more about the climate of the recent past. Ice cores are the most precious
tools that allow scientists to understand the environment on time scales of up to
100,000 years. Similar data for timescales of tens of millions of years are found in
ocean sediments. Many other techniques, such as tree rings, are also used to determine
local climate information. After scientists collect all the relevant information on the
climate, they create climate models that describe the past and forecast the future.
Measuring climate change is a complex issue due to a combination of variables
such as solar radiation absorption, sea temperature, air mass transfer, clouds, and
geographical aspects, such as altitude and ocean closeness, short-term and long-term
climate trends. The dynamics of these variables and their relationships are also a
fundamental issue and involve evaluating and simulation of theoretical models with
high computational costs (Alnaser and Merzaa 2003; McKitrick and Vogelsang 2014;
Rincón 2012).
8 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2 )
Scientists have been keeping track of atmospheric CO2 levels since the late 1950s.
During this time, its atmospheric concentration has climbed from 280 ppm to over
410 ppm. The evidence implies that this increase is due to the combustion of fossil
fuels and human-induced changes to the earth’s surface. CO2 levels in the atmosphere
are now foreseen to be the highest in at least 800,000 years and are projected to rise
exponentially. Methane and nitrous oxide levels have since increased by about 60%
and 25%, respectively, from their pre-industrial levels, becoming the second and
third most prominent contributors to anthropogenic forcing of the climate system
after CO2 .
9 Global Average Surface Temperature
The average surface temperature of the earth is often used to quantify climate change.
Close-surface air temperature measurements from wind stations can be paired with
ocean-surface temperature measurements from boats and buoys to record the planet’s
surface temperature dating back to the mid-nineteenth century. Although the average
global surface temperature has been rising in the last century, various estimates by
the U.K. Met Office, NASA, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth indicate slightly different
methodologies. In terms of data sets, the IPCC concluded that the average of 0.87 °C
(0.75–0.99 °C) for the 2006–2015 decade was over the second half of the nineteenth-
century average (Laurini 2019). On top of this long-term warming, natural variations
can be seen year after year, a reason why scientists typically use at least 30 years to
define a true climate change.
10 Rising Sea Levels and Acidifying Oceans
More than 90% of the extra energy absorbed by elevated greenhouse gases in the
climate system ends up in the oceans, increasing sea levels. The latest observations
show that the rate of global sea-level rise since 1990 has seen a rise, e.g. the sea level
in the U.K. is growing at an annual rate of around 1.4 mm. Since the mid-nineteenth
century, the oceans have absorbed about 25% of the accumulated CO2 emissions
thus, raising their acidity. Since the pre-industrial era, this has resulted in an acidity
rise of approximately 25%, which can impact the capacity of coral species to create
shells that have a knock-on effect on entire marine ecosystems.
11 Changing Cryosphere
Satellite measurements of Arctic sea ice level indicate a downward trend, e.g. since
1979, the level of sea ice in the Arctic has dropped by around 13% per decade. The
ice in the Arctic has grown smaller and younger, and over the same time, the fraction
of Arctic sea ice has dropped by 90% over five years. Greenland and the Antarctic
ice sheets have lost mass on the ground and have contributed to the observed increase
in the global sea level. Glaciers have decreased, and permafrost areas have warmed
to a record high temperature.
12 Weather Events
Significant parts of Europe, Asia, Australia, and the entire world have seen the
duration of warm spells increase detectably. Several authors (Karl and Trenberth
2003; King 2004; Kerr 2007; Guttorp 2011; Howe et al. 2013; Hulme et al. 2018;
Robinson and Shine 2018) have asserted that the observed patterns of climate change
in recent years are primarily anthropogenic (Kaufmann et al. 2011) or maybe as a
result of natural trends.
13 Climate Proxies
Paleo-climatologists have developed many groundbreaking methods to collect

knowledge on earth’s climate history. Scientists use physical and biological clues,
called climatic proxies, to unravel past climate trends worldwide or over a partic-
ular region. For example, these clues can be found in ice cores, tree rings, sedi-
ments and recreate the past environment with astonishing depth and precision. Some
climate proxies retain evidence of past temperatures. Using these proxies, paleo-
climatologists have reconstructed the past of the earth’s environment in various quan-
tities, which cross millions of years. Ice cores contain hundreds of thousands of years
of climate data. Ocean floor sediments go back millions of years. Sedimentary rocks
from the earth’s surface can provide general climate information which goes back to
billions of years.
14 Researcher’s Opinion on Earth’s Climate Destiny
It is a fact that the earth’s climate is changing (IPCC 2001a). It is considered the
biggest global threat by the scientific community due to its negative consequences on
food, water, and shelter (Costello et al. 2009). Since being introduced at the UNGA
(1989), climate change has become an issue of paramount significance for analysing
the future course of humanity (UNDP 2007/2008). It results from the enhanced CO2
emissions over the last 50 years, a trend that is expected to continue (EEA 2004;
Hulme et al. 2002). Between 1970 and 2004, annual global carbon emissions surged
by about 80%, driven by population growth and economic development (IPCC
2007a, b). The 2008 IPCC Assessment Report mentions that the CO2 concentration
in the atmosphere rose to 379 ppm in 2005 from the pre-industrial value of 280 ppm.
CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is directly related to the global temperature
increase (Betts et al. 2016) whose average value for the last century has been
0.74 °C, the largest increase in the earth’s history till date (Solomon et al. 2007).
Doubling atmospheric CO2 concentrations from pre-industrial levels would result
in a catastrophic temperature increase of 1.5–4.5 °C (Voosen 2020). CO2 emissions
are already past midway to the doubling value of 560 ppm, and many models predict
reaching the threshold value by 2060. The future course of the earth’s climate is being
determined by carbon-fueled, ultra-rich industrialists who decide the purpose for
which space is utilised on the pretext of economic development (Steffen et al. 2011).
UNFCCC, under the Paris Agreement, affirmed to reduce carbon emissions to a
value that would restrict the global temperature rise under 2 °C above pre-industrial
levels. However, existing emissions from only six oil companies—ExxonMobil, B.P.,
Gazprom, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Shell—will need more than a quarter of
the required air space to meet the 2 °C goal (McKibben 2012), even though they
continue to seek new sources of oil and gas. The global average temperature is
estimated to rise between 2.7 and 5.2 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 under
these conditions (Foster et al. 2017; U.N. 2015a, b). An average temperature increase
of 1.5 °C may be realised as soon as 2026 (U.N. 2015a, b). Studies indicate that
regional warming values may vary depending on local factors (IPCC 2001a). The
increase in global mean sea level between 1990 and 2100 is estimated to be 0.09–
0.88 m (Learmonth et al. 2006). However, regional variations are higher than the
global average sea-level rise (IPCC 2001b). This warming has not occurred uniformly
over the planet, particularly mid- and high altitudes have experienced increased
average land and sea surface temperatures along with increased precipitation. For
example, average air temperatures over the North Sea have risen by 0.8 °C since
1960 (Learmonth et al. 2006), which has resulted in a reduction of ice cover and a
rise in sea level.
In contrast, the Southern Ocean and the Eastern Pacific Ocean have maintained
cold, deep waters. These areas are also warmer due to rising temperatures, thus
eliminating a heat sink (Voosen 2020). Precipitation over mid- and high latitudes
increased by 0.5–1% per decade in the twentieth century, while as over tropical
areas, the increase is about 0.2–0.3% per decade (IPCC 2001b). In the latter part
of the twentieth century, the frequency of severe precipitation events rose by 2–
4% in the Northern Hemisphere’s mid- and high latitudes (IPCC 2001b). Earth
has witnessed far greater climate variations in the past, but the rate at which the
current crisis is unfolding has been unprecedented. The impacts of climate change
will be most severe in developing countries, where destruction from weather-related
disasters can cost up to a quarter of GDP (Guranko 2003; Bulkeley and Newell
2010). The poorer sections in the developing countries are most hit by the impacts of
climate change even when they have contributed least to the problem. Sea level has
been rising, evidently noticeable in the low-lying areas and small island states that
face the threat of inundation (Uan 2013) like Maldives and Tuvalu, which could be
lost to the whole nations sea-level rise (Rajamani 2010), rendering their inhabitants
homeless. Other areas facing the loss of landmass to sea-level rise are coasts of the
Americas, the Gulf of Maxico, the Atlantic, the Baltic, the Mediterranean, Asian
Mega Delta, small island regions, and other low-lying urban areas (FAO 2009a, b).
Climate change is also predicted to impede agriculture by variations in the temper-
ature and rainfall patterns, with the tropical regions experiencing negative effects
while temperate regions having longer growing seasons and increased agricultural
production (Darwin 2001; Devereux and Edwards 2004; FAO 1996). By the 2080s,
the associated food shortages would expose an additional 5–170 million people to
starvation (Parry et al. 1999, 2004; Rosenzweig and Parry 1994). Global tempera-
ture increases and precipitation patterns would increase the magnitude and severity
of vector-borne pests (Thornton et al. 2009). Water scarcity resulting from climate
change would force 64% of the world’s population to live under water stress condi-
tions by 2025 (Rosegrant et al. 2002). Climate change is expected to drive most
terrestrial and marine species towards polar regions, thereby expanding the range
of organisms living in warm areas and contracting those of colder regions (FAO
2009a, b). Additional projected effects of climate change on oceans and seas include
changes in ocean circulation, loss of sea ice cover, changed salinity, CO2 concentra-
tions, pH, storm frequency, and severity of climate patterns (FRS 1998; Hulme et al.
2002; ICES 2004; IPCC 2001a). Predicting the future implications of climate change
provides an insight into how human actions interfere with natural set-ups, the scale
of responses of the earth towards such activities, the potential of humankind to get
affected by climate-related events, and possible options of adaptation and mitigation
measures that can be employed.
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fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health
Threats to Humanity from Climate
Change
M. M. Majedul Islam
Abstract It is quite evident that our climate is changing rapidly. Climate change
is not merely an environmental issue, but is likely to result in world-wide depletion
of various natural systems, e.g. soil fertility, aquifers, inland fisheries, and biodi-
versity. It affects our economic activities, infrastructure and managed ecosystems,
natural environments and poses risks to human health and well-being. The health
impacts include heat stress from heatwaves; injuries from extreme weather events
(e.g. storms, floods, fires); outbreaks of infectious diseases due to changing water-
borne and vector-borne diseases; malnutrition due to decline in food production and
availability. Since the climate continues to change, the risks and threats to humanity
continue to increase. Practical measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and
mitigate risks from climate change are urgently needed.
Keywords Threats · Risks · Climate change · Food production · Diseases ·

Heatwaves
1 Introduction
There is rising evidence that the climate is changing rapidly. Climate change is
not merely seen as an environmental or economic issue, but over the last couple
of decades, its threat has become larger and more robust. The increasing emission
of greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane and
halocarbons, is causing changes in many climate hazards that affect humanity in
several ways. Mora et al. (2018) found traceable evidence for 467 hazards or path-
ways by which climate hazards have impacted ecosystems, food security, economy,
infrastructure, biodiversity and human health. Such hazards include a global rise in
average temperature, and increased frequency and intensity of precipitation, floods,
cyclones, hurricanes, storm surges, sea-level rise, heat waves, droughts, and an altered
M. M. Majedul Islam (B)

Ministry of Public Administration, Abdul Gani Road, Dhaka, Bangladesh

22 M. M. Majedul Islam
distribution of food-borne and vector-borne infectious diseases. Anthropogenic influ-

ences alter Earth’s ecosystem and biophysical system, which is evident from ground-
level ozone depletion, depletion of freshwater supplies, biodiversity losses, stresses
on food-producing systems, and organic distribution pollutants and microbiolog-
ical hazards (WHO 2003). By 2100, the world’s human population will be exposed
concurrently to one of these hazards with the most considerable magnitude. It was
also highlighted that GHG emissions impart a significant threat to humanity by inten-
sifying multiple hazards with some tropical coastal areas facing many simultaneous
hazards that can result in compounding thr threats.
Rising temperatures and sea levels, change in precipitation pattern, increasing
frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, and melting ice disrupt people’s
lives and damages the economy. Climate change is considered as a real threat to
humanity. Changes in climatic factors and weather extremes affect our environ-
ment and health, economy and well-being in different ways (Table 1). Climate
Table 1 Impact of climate change and extreme events on humanity

Climatic factors Exposure pathways Impact on humanity
Increasing temperatures Extreme heat, worsened air Increase in heat-related illness
Extreme heat events quality and death
Elevated risk of cardiovascular
and respiratory illnesses and
death
Rising sea-level Contaminated water; salinity Increased waterborne diseases;
Frequent and intense extreme intrusion; disruption of houses Reduced agricultural
precipitation, cyclones, and other infrastructures production; Injuries;
hurricanes and storm surges Drowning; Preterm birth and
and associated flooding low birth weight
Infrastructure disruptions and
post-event disease spread;
Negative impact of mental
health and well-being
Change in temperature Change in infectious agents Increased vector-borne diseases
extremes and seasonal
weather pattern
Change in precipitation Recreational water and Increased water and foodborne
pattern and run-off shellfish contaminated with diseases
waterborne pathogens
Draughts Reduced water quantity Reduced agricultural
Reduced air quality production; Respiratory
impacts related to reduced air
quality; Mental health impacts
Wildfires Rising temperatures and Smoke inhalation; Burns and
hotter, drier summers increase other traumatic injuries
the frequency and intensity of Asthma exacerbations
wildfires Mental health impacts
Threats to Humanity from Climate Change 23
change affects people in different ways and different degrees. It increases the pre-
existing vulnerabilities of elderly, women, fishermen, marginal farmers and people
living in informal settlements (Chersich et al. 2018). Susceptibility to the risks and
threats associated with climate change can also exacerbate existing socio-economic
challenges. It affects the food price by making precipitation patterns unpredictable
and causing more intense cyclones, hurricanes and storm surges which damages
crops. Climate change-induced extreme weather events are responsible for the
displacement of thousands of people every year.
The impact of climate change on human health includes death and illness from
extreme heat and cold, mortality from natural disasters, food-borne and waterborne
infectious diseases, and low labor productivity (Hasegawa et al. 2016). Climate
change harms agricultural production, which in turn increases the risk of hunger and
malnutrition. Also, malnutrition due to climate change has negative health conse-
quences in underweight children, and the worst case may lead to child mortality
(Hasegawa et al. 2016).
Climatologists forecast a further increase in global warming and the associated
changes in precipitation pattern and climatic variability during the current century
and beyond that will result in an increased climatic impact on human health. Since the
effects and threats of climate change on human health are projected to worsen over
time, some existing threats will intensify, and new hazards may emerge. Improving
our understanding of how climate change may affect human health and well-being
can inform decisions about mitigation and adaptation of future climate change, help
design research plans, and set priorities for public health protection.
2 Our Changing Climate
It is unequivocal that the Earth is warming. Numerous observations of air and water
temperatures, sea level, and ice melting have shown unprecedented changes over
the past several decades (USGCRP 2016). The concept of climate change includes
increases and decreases in temperature, precipitation pattern, extreme weather events
(e.g. cyclones, hurricanes, storm surges, heatwaves, draughts), and other climatic
factors.
Future climate change projections are based on results from global climate models.
These models are applied to project how climate is expected to change under different
plausible scenarios. Scenarios are sets of plausible futures regarding how the future
is likely to unfold from present conditions under different human choices (Polasky
et al. 2011). These scenarios consider different trajectories for demographic, socio-
economic and technological changes; and describe future changes in greenhouse gas
emissions, land use, and climatic factors (e.g. temperature, precipitation). Several
General Circulation Models (GCMs) describe present and future changes in climate
on a global scale (Islam et al. 2018a). With the help of GCMs, changes in temperature,
precipitation and sea-level rise can be simulated; and the output from the GCMs are
used in climate change impact assessments.
The fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

used four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for climate change projec-
tions, which describe four possible trajectories in greenhouse gas emissions. The
RCPs describe trajectories in greenhouse gas emissions (consistent with radiative
forcing) and the subsequent changes in climatic factors (e.g. temperature and precip-
itation) (Van Vuuren et al. 2011; Islam et al. 2018b). Actual future emissions, and
the resulting extent of future climate change, will primarily be dependent on choices
people make about emissions.
3 Extreme Event Impacts
Extreme events are weather and climate-related events that rarely occur at a given
location and have large impacts on human health and socio-economy (Bell et al.
2018). Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding, storm
surges, cyclones and hurricanes. Extreme events affect humanity by causing injury,
illness, and death (e.g. drowning during floods) and economic damages (Table 1).
Extreme events can also disrupt essential infrastructure access and functionality, such
as public health facilities, transportation, energy grids, and wastewater treatment
systems. Disruption of infrastructure can hamper evacuation from extreme event
affected areas and impede food and life-saving medicine delivery.
Climate change influences the functioning of most ecosystems on earth, and the
species living there. Although most of the health impacts of climate change are
adverse, some of these impacts are beneficial. For example, milder winters would
likely reduce the seasonal winter-time cold related mortalities in the temperate region.
In contrast, in the tropical areas, a further increase in temperatures might decrease
mosquito populations’ viability that transmits diseases (WHO 2003). Franchini and
Mannucci (2015) found that increasing temperature in the temperate region may
reduce cold-related diseases (such as pneumonia, bronchitis and arthritis). Still, these
benefits are not adequate to compensate for the risks associated with global warming.
Many human diseases, such as cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses due to
heatwaves, the altered transmission of infectious diseases, and malnutrition from
crop failures, are associated with climate change. Climate change is also the cause of
behavioural and mental health problems, such as anxiety, depression, post-traumatic
stress and suicide. For example, after Hurricane Katrina in the USA in 2005, older
people with pre-existing mental illness had a seven times higher risk of worsening
their mental illness (Introcaso 2018).
The frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events, such as rising
temperatures, heavy rainfall and droughts are changing with climate change, which
will continue to change in future (Bell et al. 2018). This indicates that areas already
experiencing such health-threatening extreme weather or climate events are likely
to exacerbate health problems by increasing temperatures and increasing storm
frequency and intensity. It also means that certain areas will experience a new
climate and weather-related health threats. For example, areas previously inexperi-
enced in waterborne diseases because of cooler water temperatures may experience
such disease in the future as rising water temperatures provide a favourable condition
for the microorganisms responsible for causing those diseases. Therefore, climate
change can affect human health mainly in two ways: by worsening the frequency
or severity of existing health complications, and by creating unprecedented health
threats in places that have not previously been (USGCRP 2016) in such risks.
Health impacts may also happen before or after such an event, as a person can
be involved in disaster preparedness and post-event cleanup activities that can put
their health at risk. Health risks may also appear long after an extreme event due to
property and infrastructure damage, destruction of assets, environmental degradation,
etc. Extreme events also cause health risks when multiple events co-occur or occur
in quick succession in any area.
The pathways of extreme event impacts on human health, business and economic
losses are diverse and complex (Bell et al. 2018). Extreme events related to health
effects and severity vary with geographic location, environmental factors, socio-
economic condition and demographics of a given community. Changes in popu-
lation size, ethnic composition, and age affect people’s health status. Educational
qualification, poverty, healthcare access, and other discriminations contribute to the
incidence and prevalence of health conditions. For example, the life expectancy
of minority populations having higher rates of hypertension, smoking habit, and
diabetes may decrease by the effects of climate change-induced increased temper-
ature and air pollution (USGCRP 2016). In areas where the community’s health or
socio-economic status is getting worse, climate change may exacerbate their health
problems. On the contrary, in places where people’s health conditions or socio-
economic status is improving, climate change may affect by slowing or reducing
that improvement (Luber et al. 2014).
Population growth, urbanization and migration can put more people vulnerable
to the health risk of climate change, particularly as more people are located in and
around vulnerable areas like coastal, low-lying, or flood-prone areas; wildfire-prone
zones; drought-stricken regions; and densely populated urban areas. The people
living near the poverty line may have an increased risk of health impacts from
climate change. Poor economic conditions can make it very difficult to respond
to extreme weather events, particularly when rebuilding homes and businesses is
required (USGCRP 2016).
To understand how climate change exacerbates health problems, climate change
health impacts assessment is required. In-depth study and research regarding the
impacts of extreme events and climate change on socio-economy, human health, and
well-being are needed for effective planning, mitigation, and adaptation to climate
change. Mathematical model-based scenario analysis that includes projected changes
in people’s health and socio-economic status can provide useful insights into the
impact of non-climate factors on human health (Islam et al., 2018b). Since pre-
existing health conditions, age, socio-economic status etc. influence vulnerability to
weather and climate-related health impacts (Chersich et al. 2018), climate change
health risk assessments must be performed considering projected changes in these
factors. Public health risk can be quantified using hazard identification, exposure
assessment and dose–response relationship (Islam and Islam 2020). The future health
risk from climate change can be quantified by using three values: (1) the baseline data
of the health impact, (2) the projected change in exposure, and (3) the exposure–
response function, which is a projection of how a health risk changes with future
modifications in exposures (USGCRP 2016).
3.1 Temperature Related Threats
Global temperatures have been continuously increasing and reaching a new level
almost every year since the last couple of decades (Orimoloye et al. 2019). This is
likely to cause increased mortality from heat and a potential decrease in mortality
from cold, particularly for children, the elderly, immuno-compromised, disabled,
minorities and the poor due to their vulnerablity to these changes (USGCRP 2016).
Days that are hotter than the average summer temperature or colder than the average
winter temperature leads to increased morbidity and mortality by hindering the body’s
temperature regulation ability or by inducing other health complications (USGCRP
2016).
Higher temperatures cause heat exhaustion, heat cramps, heat stroke, hyper-
thermia, and dehydration, leading to death in extreme cases. Higher temperature
and radiation cause different heat-related diseases (e.g. heat stroke, heart disease,
skin cancer, diarrhoea) which might be influenced strongly by extreme weather
events (Orimoloye et al. 2019). Temperature extremes can also worsen pre-existing
conditions such as cardiovascular, respiratory, kidney and diabetes-related conditions
(USGCRP 2016; Introcaso 2018).
Higher temperatures also affect mosquitoes, ticks, fleas and rodents that transmit
vector-borne diseases. For example, warmer temperatures shorten the reproductive
cycle of mosquitoes. Global warming also influences the fate, transmission, viability
and multiplication of waterborne pathogens (Introcaso 2018).
Warmer average temperatures can alter the spatial and seasonal distribution of
vector-borne (e.g. malaria and dengue fever), and food-borne infections diseases
(e.g. salmonellosis) which peak in summer. Human cardiopulmonary system and
gastrointestinal tract are particularly vulnerable to warmer temperature’s adverse
effects (Franchini and Mannucci 2015).
There is little information on how heat-related illnesses will change with projected
increases in temperature. However, hospital records show that patients suffering
from respiratory, urinary, renal and genital complications are increasing. Kidney
stone problem has been associated with high temperatures, possibly because of dehy-
dration resulting in a higher concentration of salts that form the kidney stones (Li
et al. 2012). The decrease in illness and deaths from a decrease in winter cold has
not been studied well, but the decrease in deaths from cold is likely to be smaller
than the increase in deaths due to increased heat (Li et al. 2012; Luber et al. 2014).
An increasing number of studies has generally projected a net increase in deaths

from a warming climate. Studies show that an additional extreme hot day may lead
to more deaths than an additional extreme cold day, and the decrease in extreme cold
deaths is limited as the total number of cold deaths is already very less.
Impacts of extreme temperature vary with geographical locations and popula-
tions of concern. Certain populations are more at risk of exposure to temperature
extremes due to their sensitivity to temperature gradients and limitations to their
adaption capacity to change in climate conditions. A developed country’s popula-
tion is usually less sensitive to heat extreme due to increased access to air condi-
tioning and public healthcare facilities. This trend of increasing adaptive capacity
and tolerance is projected to continue, and the future increase in mortality rate is
therefore expected to reduce. However, adaptation is not unlimited and most recent
studies have projected a rise in mortality, even assumptions regarding future adap-
tation have been taken into account (Mills et al. 2015). Older people are at higher
risk of extreme temperature-related morbidity and mortality, particularly those who
have pre-existing health complications, take medications (that reduce thermoregula-
tion or cause nerve blockage) or those with limited physical movement. An increased
risk of mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases has been observed in
older people (over 65 years old) during extreme temperatures because of inefficient
thermoregulation (Åström et al. 2011; USGCRP 2016). Association between high
temperatures and cardiovascular and respiratory hospitalizations in older people has
also been identified (Åström et al. 2011).
The health complications observed in children exposed to extreme temper-
ature include dehydration, electrolyte imbalance, heat stress, fever, and
renal disease. Both hot and cold temperatures affect infectious and respiratory
diseases in children. Reduced thermoregulation and cardiovascular output, and
increased metabolism are physiological factors that cause children’s vulnerability to
extreme heat. Pregnant women are also vulnerable to extreme heat as elevated expo-
sure to heat can cause dehydration, leading to release of labour-inducing hormones
(Beltran et al. 2014). Temperature extremes may also result in premature birth, low
birth weight and infant mortality (USGCRP 2016).
Outdoor workers are at increased risk of illness and deaths from temperature
extremes, mainly when they involve vigorous activities. Extreme heatwaves can
exacerbate mental, cognitive and behavioural disorders. Some medications inter-
fere with thermoregulation, therefore increase vulnerability to excessive heat. One
study (Martin-Latry et al. 2007) in Australia reported that hospital admissions with
behavioural and mental disorders increased by over 7% due to heat above 80 °F.
3.2 Heavy Rainfall and Flood
Floods impact individuals and communities and have adverse socio-economic and
environmental consequences (Table 2). The effects of floods are related to location,
topography, duration, extent of flooding, human demographics and characteristics of
Table 2 Types of losses due to floods

Direct loss Indirect loss
Monetary loss Destruction of buildings, Disruption to transport,
infrastructure, assets, livestock, environmental degradation, loss of
crops etc. value added in business etc.
Non-monetary loss Loss of lives, injuries, infection, Stress and anxiety, mental health
water-related illnesses, damage to and well-being, disruption to living,
cultural or heritage sites, ecological loss of cultural and environmental
damage etc. sites, loss of community, etc.
the affected natural and built environment (Du et al. 2010). Flooding associated with
heavy rainfall events has various impacts on the humans, including injury, drowning
and death. Floodwater is often mixed with sewage, which can impure drinking water
with chemicals, heavy metal and pathogenic microorganisms leading to infection,
illness and death (Islam and Islam 2020). The flood can damage the bridges, railways
and road transport networks. Damage to infrastructure can cause long-term impacts,
e.g. disruptions to the power supply, transport, communication, clean water supply,
wastewater treatment facilities and, health care and education.
Further, it can cause widespread damage to crops and livestock due to water-
logging and delayed harvesting. It is further intensified by disruption to transport
because of inundated road and damaged bridge/culverts. Flood damage to roads and
rail networks can have significant impacts on national economies.
The flood may have some positive impact. Flooding can increase agricultural
production by recharging groundwater aquifer, by filling wetlands and improving
soil fertility through silt deposition. Floods maintain ecosystem functions and biodi-
versity. Flood carries sediment and nutrients from lands and discharges into the
aquatic environment (Islam et al. 2018a). Floods support increased fish produc-
tion through breeding, migration and dispersal. The environmental benefits of
flooding also include supporting ecosystem services and maintenance of recreational
environments.
3.3 Severe Storms
Warmer air holds more water, and rising temperatures increase surface evapora-
tion, increasing the frequency and intensity of rainfall events, resulting in cyclones,
hurricanes, typhoons and storm surges. Cyclones, hurricanes and storm surges are
a major threat for coastal communities worldwide. About two million people have
died in the last century, and millions have been injured worldwide from severe trop-
ical storms, such as cyclones, hurricanes, and typhoons (Haque et al. 2012). Hurri-
cane Maria in 2017 accounted for nearly 3000 deaths across Puerto Rico. In recent
years hurricane Harvey, Irma and Maria collectively caused over $300 billion
damage (Introcaso 2018). Globally, the frequency and intensity of severe storms
may be increasing because of higher sea surface temperatures associated with global
warming. According to recent research (Patricola and Wehner 2018), global warming
will cause hurricanes to become even more deadly by intensifying precipitation by
as high as 10% and wind speeds by 25 mph.
3.4 Sea Level Rise
The current rising rate in the Global Mean Sea Level is more significant than at
any time in history. If the Greenland ice sheet completely melts, global sea level
would rise by at least seven meters and just half a metre rise in sea level would risk
the survival of the whole human population of many small Island nations. Presently
about 145 million people worldwide live one meter or less above sea level, and about
40% of the world’s population lives within 100 kms of the coast. As the global
coastal population is projected to surpass one billion in this century, sea-level rise
would be among the most severe and lasting consequences of climate change (Hauer
et al. 2020). Sea level rise affects coastal people through flooding, when river water
cannot flow into the sea/ocean and when seawater surges onto the surrounding land
during storm surges (Siegert 2017). If the seawater enters farms and reservoirs, it
contaminates the drinking water supply and destroys crops. High population concen-
tration in the coastal zone increases people’s vulnerability to sea-level rise and other
coastal hazards such as storm surges. Sea level rise may even influence the migra-
tion of millions of people (Hauer et al. 2020). Rising seas or flooding may destroy
stormwater disposal and wastewater treatment, resulting in epidemics of waterborne
diseases caused by pathogenic bacteria, viruses and protozoa.
3.5 Droughts and Fires
Heat and droughts increase the prevalence, intensity and duration of wildfires world-
wide. In recent years many areas of the world have experienced deadliest droughts.
For example, since 2000, a higher frequency of drought incidence has been observed
in the Amazon than the last century, and these are expected to intensify (Machado-
Silva et al. 2020). The recent wildfires in Australia, Amazon and California were the
deadliest by far in history (Introcaso 2018). The amount of carbon these fires emitted
could be massive, which might further exacerbate climate change trends. Such fires
exposed local communities to hazardous air quality that might lead to serious health
consequences, including respiratory illnesses. Heat, drought and wildfires contribute
to worsening of air quality that may result in acute respiratory illnesses (e.g. asthma,
acute bronchitis and pneumonia) and cause hundreds of thousands of premature
deaths worldwide. The study revealed that in 2013, air pollution caused an estimated
one-third of deaths in the 74 leading Chinese cities (Fang et al. 2016).
4 Air Quality Impacts
Air quality is strongly associated with weather, and therefore sensitive to climate
change. Changing climate can degrade air quality by concentrating pollutants in the
stratosphere (Hassan et al. 2016). Polluted air can adversely affect human respira-
tory and cardiovascular systems. Health effects of climate change vary with popu-
lation group, location and human capability of responses to health problems. In
recent years, the incidence of respiratory illnesses has grown remarkably all over
the world. Climate change-induced air pollution may aggravate respiratory compli-
cations. Most of the allergic respiratory diseases such as asthma and rhinitis are
seasonal with climatic factors. Climate change may exacerbate such allergic reac-
tions. Human being including children, the elderly, and people with pre-existing
asthma and cardiovascular problems are vulnerable to air pollution. Air pollution can
reduce lung functions, aggravation of respiratory symptoms, and increase hospital
admission for cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses and even death (Kheirbek et al.
2013).
Climate change affects human health by increasing air pollutants such as ground-
level ozone (a component of smog) and particulate matter in different Earth regions.
Ground-level ozone is associated with many health problems, including diminished
lung function, increased hospital admissions for asthma, and increases in premature
deaths (USGCRP 2016). Climate change-induced large and severe wildfires can also
reduce air quality substantially and affect human health in different ways. Smoke
exposure increases acute respiratory and cardiovascular illnesse. The frequency of
wildfires is likely to grow with a more prevalent and severe drought. Exposure to
allergens causes health problems for many people. When a sensitive individual is
exposed to allergens and air pollutants simultaneously, allergic reactions become
more prevalent and severe. Increased air pollution often deteriorates the effects of
increased allergens associated with climate change.
Future climate change may exacerbate health impacts by increasing the frequency,
intensity, and duration of extreme weather events with increased air pollution expo-
sure. With global warming, both the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are
expected to increase. During episodes of heat waves, air pollution will subsequently
increase and will exacerbate health problems.
Storms can also deteriorate air quality by increasing particulate matter levels in
urban areas. The aerosol particles can cause storm clouds to linger and increase
temperature at night due to the convection process. Kwon et al. (2002) reported
that dust storm events in South Korea were associated with a risk of death from
cardiovascular and respiratory problems.
5 Water Quality Impacts
Climate change is expected to affect water resources in different ways, increasing

people’s vulnerability to waterborne diseases caused by bacteria, viruses, and proto-
zoans (Table 3). Toxins produced by certain harmful algae and cyanobacteria and
chemicals introduced into the aquatic environment by human activities can cause
water-related diseases. Exposure pathways include ingestion, direct contact with
contaminated drinking/recreational water, and contaminated fish/shellfish consump-
tion. The primary sources of water contamination are human and animal waste and
agricultural activities, including manures and fertilizers (Islam et al. 2019). Runoff
and flooding resulting from climate change-induced extreme precipitation, cyclones,
hurricanes and storm surges are likely to increase water contamination risks. Contam-
ination occurs when agents of water-related illness and nutrients (e.g. nitrogen, and
phosphorus) are carried from urban and agricultural areas into water sources (Fig. 1).
Table 3 Climatic factors and waterborne pathogens that cause water-related diseases
Waterborne pathogens/agents Exposure Climatic factors Health outcomes
pathway
Toxic algae (e.g. Cyanobacteria, Drinking Increased water Asthma, eye
diatoms) water, temperature, irritations,
Recreational ocean surface Gastrointestinal
waters, currents, ocean and neurologic
Fish and acidification illness caused by
shellfish shellfish poisoning
Enteric bacteria (e.g. Salmonella, Drinking Temperature Gastroenteritis,
Campylobacter species, water, (both increase and Skin infections
Toxigenic Escherichia coli, Recreational decrease), heavy
Cryptosporidium, staphylococci) waters, rainfall, flooding
Shellfish
Vibrio species (e.g. v. cholera, V. Recreational Increased water Gastroenteritis,
parahaemolyticus) waters, temperature, Septicemia,
Shellfish sea-level rise, Skin, eye, and ear
precipitation infections
patterns and
coastal salinity
fluctuation
Protozon parasites (Giardia, Recreational Temperature Gastroenteritis
Entamoeba histolytica) waters, (both increase and
Shellfish decrease), heavy
rainfall, flooding
Enteric viruses (e.g. enteroviruses, Drinking Heavy Gastrointestinal
rotaviruses, adenovirus, noroviruses) water, precipitation, illness, paralysis;
Recreational flooding, infection of heart
waters increased water or other organs
Shellfish temperature
Fig. 1 Sources, pathways and impact of climate change on microorganisms in surface water
Climatic factors or drivers include temperature, precipitation and related runoff,

cyclones, hurricanes, and storm surge that affect the survival, growth, proliferation,
spread and virulence of pathogens/agents of water-related diseases. Exposure to
contaminated water, fish, or shellfish causing diseases depends on various factors,
including human behaviour, socio-economic and physiological condition that may
influence a person’s sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (USGCRP 2016). Primary
health outcomes results by waterborne pathogens/agents include gastrointestinal
diseases and skin infections. Water quality monitoring and management, wastew-
ater treatment, beach closures etc. can reduce the risk of exposure and illness from
contaminated water (Islam et al. 2018c).
6 Vector-Borne Illnesses
Vector-borne illnesses are transmitted by vectors, such as mosquitoes, fleas and ticks.
These vectors usually carry infectious microorganisms such as viruses, bacteria,
and protozoa, transmitted from one host to another. The prevalence, temporality
and distribution of vector-borne illnesses are influenced substantially by climatic
factors, particularly increased or decreased temperature and change in precipita-
tion patterns. Climate change has both short and long term impacts on transmission
of vector-borne disease. The variability in climatic factors alter transmission and
seasonality of vector-borne diseases and interact with some other factors, such as
how pathogenic microorganisms adapt and change, ecosystem and land use changes,
and availability of hosts demographics, human behaviour, and their adaptive capacity.
All these make it difficult to predict climate change’s actual impact on the prevalence
and distribution of vector-borne diseases.
7 Impact on Food Safety and Nutrition
Supply of safe and nutritious food is a fundamental element of food security. Climate
change is likely to affect global food security by reducing food production, disrupting
food supply channel and decreasing access to food, which increases the risk of
hunger and malnutrition. Malnutrition due to climate change can lead to underweight
children and in the worst case may lead to child mortality, particularly in low-income
countries (Hasegawa et al. 2016).
The impacts of climate change on food safety, nutrition, and distribution is less
emphasized and less reported (Brown et al. 2015). Increasing CO2 and climate change
can alter our food safety, nutrition, and distribution through two main pathways. The
first one is associated with global warming and the associated changes in climate
and weather patterns (USGCRP 2016). Current and projected changes in climate,
weather patterns, and physical environment have adverse consequences on people’s
environmental quality, food safety, nutrition, and livelihood. The other pathway is
through CO2 fertilization impact on plant photosynthesis. A higher level of CO2
can stimulate carbohydrate production and growth in some plants but can lower the
amount of protein and essential minerals in many other cereal crops, such as wheat,
rice, and potatoes, which has negative consequences on human nutrition (USGCRP
2016).
8 Impact on Mental Health and Well-Being
The impact of climate change on mental health and people’s well-being are substan-
tial. Mental health effects of climate change can range from minimal stress to clin-
ical disorders including anxiety, depression, post-traumatic stress and suicidality.
The mental health and well-being related impacts of climate change often coincide
and interact with other societal and environmental stressors that make it difficult to
understand the overall effects of climate change on people’s health, mental health and
well-being. Recent research (Hrabok et al. 2020) confirmed that certain risk factors,
such as gender, education, socio-economic status, pre-existing mental health symp-
toms were associated with greater vulnerability to mental health following deadly
natural disasters.
9 Conclusion
The Paris climate agreement aims to hold global warming well below 2 °C and to
pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) report concluded that if the current rate of GHG emission continues,
temperatures will rise to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2040. To avoid this,
the IPCC reported that GHG pollution must be reduced by 45% from 2010 levels by
2030, and by 100% by 2050. If we fail to implement appropriate mitigation actions,
the temperature will likely increase as high as 4 °C by the end of this century. At 4 °C,
for example, 44% of vertebrates lose half of their geographic range, plants and insects
over two-thirds, global crops production falls dramatically and the global economy
contracts by over 30%. Climate change threatens to slow, halt or even reverses the
progress and socio-economic development of a country.
Recent scientific evidence shows that our planet is already being impacted by
climate change in the form of extreme weather events, food shortages from crop fail-
ures, or altered distribution of infectious diseases. The impact will continue on future
generations, and each day we delay addressing the situation means more destruction
to our planet and damage to humanity. Therefore, it is essential to take practical
measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change risks.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions can help protect human health and well-being
by reducing impacts on our environment. Improved understanding of the association
between climate change and extreme weather-related illness can help reduce vulner-
ability. It is also essential to set and update priorities, mobilize resources and build
capacity for research and development on climate change adaptation and mitigation.
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Understanding the Causes of Climatic
Change in the Environment
Zia Ur Rahman Farooqi, Muhammad Sabir, Abdul Qadeer, Alishba Naeem,

Ghulam Murtaza, and Hamza Yousaf
Abstract Climate change, caused by natural (climate variability, volcanic eruptions,

change in earth orbits and ocean circulation), and anthropogenic activities (industrial
and energy production emissions, greenhouse gasses from vehicles and agriculture)
is a hot topic for scientific discussions nowadays due to its broader effects and conse-
quences. It causes adverse impacts on ecosystems ranging from sea level rise to agro-
ecological zone shifting. It adversely affects the agricultural productivity, microbial
diversity, soil organic matter, droughts, shifting of agro-ecological zones, and loss in
crop yield to even severe disasters like food security problems. Other effects on the
environment include extreme weather events like floods, abrupt and intensive rains
and storms, forest fires, loss of biodiversity and habitats. In this chapter, authors have
tried to discuss climate change with all its contributing factors.
Keywords Fossil fuels · Global warming · Greenhouse gasses · Natural

phenomena
1 Introduction
From the North to the south pole, planet earth is warming. Since 1906, the global
average surface temperature has increased by 0.9 °C to and even more in compar-
atively sensitive polar regions. The impacts of rising temperatures appear in the
form of melting glaciers and sea ice, sea level rise, shifting precipitation patterns,
and biodiversity loss and shifting of agricultural zones. Global warming and climate
change are considered synonyms, but scientists prefer to use the term climate change,
when addressing the issue. Climate change induces rise in temperature, resulting in
extreme weather events and, shifting in wildlife population and their habitats. These
changes emerge due to human interruptions in the atmosphere by supplying excessive
GHGs and causing heat-trapping phenomenas (Change 2017).
Z. U. R. Farooqi (B) · M. Sabir · A. Qadeer · A. Naeem · G. Murtaza · H. Yousaf

Institute of Soil and Environmental Sciences, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38040,
Pakistan

38 Z. U. R. Farooqi et al.
Scientifically, climate change is considered as the alteration in the climatic

arrangements over long periods. These alterations could be because of the natural
processes, like variability in suns radiations, volcanic eruptions, modifications in
the climate system or because of the activities by humans pollution, industrializa-
tion and land use changes (Hughes et al. 2018). On earth, sun’s energy is the most
significant driver of the climatic system. This energy depends on its amount released
by the sun and the area between the sun and earth as, some part of this sunlight is
absorbed by the earths surface, and some are reflected back. Aerosols, the suspended
particles, increase this phenomenon of reflection resulting in greenhouse effect (Mi
et al. 2019). It happens due to GHGs, like water vapours, carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and
methane (CH4 ) and is essential for the sustenance of life on earth by maiking it
livable (Farooqi et al. 2018; Freeman et al. 2018). CO2 is the most significant GHG,
as it is three times that of the pre-industrial levels. Methane, another GHG has more
warming potential than all other GHGs and remains in the atmosphere for around
a decade but is found in minute quantities in the atmosphere. However, CO2 can
persist for almost 100 years or more, so even if we stop its emissions, the earth will
continue to warm up from these gases (Seager et al. 2019; Farooqi et al. 2020).
Raising awareness about climate change is often known as the main rule for
climate change mitigation and adaptation. There is a always small risk of climate
change on individuals because of the increased awareness about the causes of climate
change (Luís et al. 2018).
2 Climate Change: Origin and Concepts
Climate change is a multidimensional subject with paradoxical dimensions. Although

there is a very positive consensus on the actual happening of climate change still many
societies do not accept climate change to be real. In industrialized countries, most
people believe that climate change is not a real phenomenon and mere a goodbye-
product of the Industrial Revolution. In non-industrialized and less educated nations,
it is thought that climate is cannot be altered by human interventions but is solely
controlled by divine forces. In this divergent society, scientist and journalists who,
study and report on climate change have intricate work to do. They simultaneously
have to work on the study and dissemination to society that does not accept their
findings.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the primary source of
scientific information on climate change. It came into existence in 1988 by the
United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and World Meteorological Orga-
nization (WMO). IPCC itself does not do research; it only gathers the available
information and invites different experts to review the information in the context
of climate change. IPCC was the first body which concluded in 2007 that climate
change is a real phenomenon, and its future impacts could be abrupt, lethal and
irreversible. According to the IPCC, numerous climate change impacts vary in their
magnitude (Marselle et al. 2019).
Understanding the Causes of Climatic Change in the Environment 39
3 Causes of Climate Change
Some gases called GHG’s present in the atmosphere act like a blanket and trap suns
radiations and stop them from radiating back into space. Many of these GHGs occur
naturally and are necessary to maintain temperature, favourable for sustainability
of life. But, human activity has increased their concentrations above the optimum
levels in the atmosphere, especially that of CO2 , CH4 , nitrous oxide (N2 O), and
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) (Fig. 1). Top scientists worldwide have proposed that
human activities are the primary sources of GHGs and the leading cause of CC till the
middle of the century (industrial revolution age). And a rise of 2 °C in temperature
has occured after the industrial period compared to the pre-industrial times and due
to this temperature increase, the international community has recognized the need to
keep warming below 2 °C.
3.1 Natural
3.1.1 Volcanic Eruptions
The possibilities of more severe events of volcanism and ash clouds pose issues for
the local and regional climate and aviation industry. The main mechanisms involved
in eventual and prolonged volcanism events with environmental relations should be
explored as these mechanisms demonstrate a dynamic and integrated framework of
volcanisms. These volcanoes can, directly and indirectly, affect the environment and
Fig. 1 Cause of climate change

cause CC. Long-term or prolonged volcanism events can cause CC on a regional

and global scale by increasing the excessive concentrations of stratospheric aerosols
and fine ash particles, as reported in 1991 Pinatubo eruption. The consequences on
the atmosphere due to prolonged and explosive volcanic eruptions are more critical
due to their prolonged effects and supply of pollutants to the atmosphere and their
cross-boundary movements. The rise in volcanism and cross-boundary movement
of pollutants could contribute to more frequent CC related extreme weather events
across Europe (Cooper et al. 2018) (Table 1).
Eruptions of Tambora (Indonesia) in 1815 had significant impacts on the global
environment, causing Europe and North America’s 1816 as a year without crop-
ping season. It was a horrific event due to which thousands of citizens lost their
lives. Climate models respond to recommended Tambora-like forcing by reinforcing
the winter stratospheric polar vortex, accelerating global cooling and water cycle,
worsening summer monsoon circulation, improving the Atlantic South Overturning
Circulation and decreasing atmospheric CO2 . More excellent knowledge of climate
processes arose, integrating observations, climate proxies and model simulations for
Tambora’s scenario (Raible et al. 2016).
Extratropical volcanic eruptions are typically considered less significant in terms
of effects than coastal eruptions in terms of atmospheric/surface cooling at larger
scales. It has been proved that explosive extratropical eruptions have caused more
significant hemispheric cooling than tropical eruptions in comparison to their esti-
mated stratospheric injection using ice-core and tree rings in the Northern Hemi-
sphere. Stratospheric aerosol emission estimates show that for sulphur injection
frequency similar to Mount Pinatubo’s eruption in 1991, extra-tropical eruptions
produce more climatic variation in Northern Hemisphere 80% higher than the tropical
volcanic eruptions (Toohey et al. 2019).
Table 1 Top ten major volcanism events in human history

Mountain name Country Century/Year Losses
Mt. Tambora Indonesia April, 1815 120,000 people
Krakatoa Indonesia August, 1883 36,000 people
Laki Iceland 1783 10,000 in Iceland
23,000 in Great Britain and caused famine in
Egypt
Mt. Pelee Caribbean May, 1902 28,000 people
Ilopango El Salvador 450 AD Up to 100,000
Mt. Unzen Japan 1792 15,000 people
Nevado del Riuz Columbia 1985 20,000 people
Mt. Pinatubo Philippines June, 1991 722 people
Mt. Vesuvius Italy August, 79 AD 16,000 people
Santa Maria Guatemala 1902 5000 people
Source https://www.australiangeographic.com.au/topics/science-environment/2017/01/the-wor
lds-10-most-devastating-volcanic-eruptions/
Whether large volcanoes in the northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere

have distinctive impacts on the monsoon is uncertain. Using Group Earth System
Model 1.0 (CESM1) 1500-year volcanic susceptibility simulation, we fix this
problem. Volcanoes are classified into three northern hemisphere volcanoes, southern
hemisphere volcanoes, and equatorial volcanoes. Using simulation, we notice
monsoon precipitation in one hemisphere is significantly enhanced by remote
volcanic forcing in the other. This remote forced volcanic intensification is primarily
attributed to shifts in circulation rather than moisture content.
Volcanic eruptions in the northern hemisphere are more effective in decreasing
monsoon precipitation in the northern hemisphere than in the equatorial ones. So are
the southern hemisphere eruptions in weakening the monsoon in the southern hemi-
sphere, as tropical eruptions have weaker results in cutting off-equatorial moonsoon
circulation, thus decreasing humidity (Liu et al. 2016). Volcanism originated aerosols
alter the climate at local or regional scales via their interaction with clouds. Volcanism
at larger scales releases sulphur dioxide (SO2 ), which is the primary precursor of
aerosols and controls atmospheric interactions. Based on the Holuhraun eruption in
Iceland during 2014–15, it has been shown that the eruption released pollutants have
the potential to influence the climate at local levels (Malavelle et al. 2017).
3.1.2 Ocean Circulations
Changes in oceanic heat transport may lead to repeated or cyclic alterations in temper-
ature. During the glacial periods between 25,000 and 60,000 years, scientists explored
the high-resolution atmospheric and oceanic circulations in the deep North Atlantic
ocean and predicted the reduced overturning of Atlantic oceanic circulations during
each cold age indicating that oceans play a pivital role in abrupt glacial climate shift
(Henry et al. 2016; Lynch-Stieglitz 2017).
Trossman et al. (2016) assessed interactions between CO2 -forced ocean circula-
tion disruptions and clouds in a prediction model and observed that both the factors,
significantly influence the surface and ocean heating. Due to the change in ocean
circulations, cloud feedback is very crucial in controlling southern heat flow. It is the
primary feedback mechanism that reacts in response to the ocean circulations. He
et al. (2017) attempted a study to know about variabilities and how they are related
to the baseline environment simulations by comparing two input simulations in the
same model and concluded that ocean circulations are slower and stronger at initial
stages. Smaller reductions in poleward ocean heat flow results in less tropical ocean
heat absorption and less surface warming as seen in both the hemispheres. But the
changes in circulation overturning of southern Atlantic and Antarctic Bottom Water
production dominate the warming differences in both hemispheres. This process
is further enhanced by albedo and cloud input, causing a reduction in ocean heat
absorption efficiency.
Important observational data suggests that extreme ocean warming is seen in
response to change in currents near South Brazil and Río de la Plata. Changes in ocean
circulation are responsible for poleward migration of fisheries in Uruguay’s due to
migration of fish species from cold-waters to warm-waters. Long-term experiments

on ocean circulations and CC interactions suggests prolonged shellfish closures.
Algal blooms and extreme weather events further impact coastal shellfish, native’s
income, and change in livelihood patterns of local communities (Franco et al. 2020).
3.1.3 Solar Variations
Solar flux is the fundamental energy source of the climate system on earth, and
long-term climate change is significantly due to the earth’s motion. Studies have
pointed out that little climatic system variations may be aggravated due to variations
in astronomy and earth movement factors. For example, air to sea feedbacks in cloud-
free areas of the subtropical Pacific and tropical precipitation zones can increase solar
impact mechanism on the Pacific climate system. This small change in the initial solar
system can be further amplified by GHGs and CC (Xiao et al. 2017; Maclean et al.
2017).
Gathered and reconstructed data can be used for the examination of solar activity
cycles. Data sources like sunspot number, Earth’s climate change, Lake Qinghai
temperatures in China, Vostok in Antarctica, Greenland’s GISP climate record, and
China’s Dongge Cave stalagmite-18O moonsoon records can be used for this purpose.
Earth’s temperature index variations have been observed to show the 1000-year
cyclicity, recently identified in solar activity (called the Eddy cycle). Cross-wavelet
interactions between the elements of the millennium-cycle sunspots and Earth’s
climate shift stay strong and steady throughout the past 8640 years (BC 6755–AD
1885). The precise and reliable resonant relationships between sunspot numbers and
these climate indices suggest that solar fluctuations may have played a role in modu-
lating the Earth’s climate change trend of the millennium before the new industrial
revolution (Zhao et al. 2020).
3.1.4 Internal Variability in Climate
Natural climatic variability is one of the primary sources of uncertainty and leads to
higher or lower than the projected CC trends. Many projections and experiments are
performed to assess whether natural climate change influences the capacity to track
mean and extreme precipitation. The mean indicators are annual and seasonal average
precipitation, while the extreme indicators are the yearly and seasonal total regular
precipitation. This is done with 50-member CanESM2 and 40-member CESM1
broad simulation sets over the period 1950–2100. Locally, their results suggest that
natural temperature variability in some regions of the world will regulate uncer-
tainty for annual and seasonal heavy precipitation before the end of the century.
For combined precipitation (yearly and seasonal), the CC impacts can be detected
accurately without using regional data. But climatic variations can add to the errors
in detecting anthropogenic CC signals for mean and severe precipitation before the
middle to late centuries (Martel et al. 2018).
Studies suggest that positive temperature difference from the medium-term mean,
reflecting CC, affects Pakistan’s farmland prices. Although the marginal impact esti-
mates show a slight, yet negative linear association with farmland values. Conversely,
the position of farms in regions where farmers may use financial or extension services
has had a beneficial impact on agricultural prices, as has irrigation facilities (Arshad
et al. 2017).
Areas of small, subtropical lakes are mostly susceptible to global warming-
induced CC. Many rivers are on the cyclone strike line, with high inter-annual
and inter-seasonal drainage and rainfall variability. In the shallow nutrient lake
cycling, these two factors regulate water column interaction, which play a signifi-
cant part in this cycling phase. This water column brightens the harmful algal bloom
characteristics and dynamics like cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms.
3.2 Anthropogenic
3.2.1 Fossil Fuel Emissions
Fossil fuel burning introduces GHGs into the atmosphere which contributes to CC.
Countries with strong domestic fossil fuel resources have experienced a significant
increase in the demand for primary energy from fossil fuels. This condition indicates
a tremendous threat to CC mitigation, leaving only two main mitigation measures: (i)
hold fossil fuels in the ground; and (ii) introduce technologies about carbon capture
and its storage in the sinks (Johnsson et al. 2019). CC related research has tradi-
tionally highlighted the questions about sourcing fossil fuel as global benchmark
emission scenarios (i.e. scenarios that do not recognize additional climate policies)
is constructed on the assumption of ample twenty-first century fossil fuel supplies.
However, existing forecasts remain critically unpredictable, and emerging litera-
ture provides revised figures. Studies suggest that by the end of the century, global
temperatures will increase up to 2 °C by 2100 (Capellán-Pérez et al. 2016).
3.2.2 Agriculture
Agriculture and the associated sectors have significant environmental impacts,

including GHG emissions. Agriculture generates 25% of GHGs emissions. Because
of fossil fuel use and soil organic carbon depletion, it contributes 23–44% of global
CO2 emissions. Therefore, there is a dire need to identify the climate-smart primary
agricultural practices to mitigate CC. It is suggested that primary tillage with minimal
soil disturbance and lower operations is a suitable environmental friendly approach
for combating CC (Pratibha et al. 2019). CC adaptation techniques are expected to
predict impacts of higher temperatures, differential precipitation rates and elevated
CO2 concentrations on crop yields and GHG emissions (He et al. 2018).
Methane, another strong GHG originateds from livestock, paddy fields and
wetlands (Poulter et al. 2017) therefore becomes a significant component of CC
(Varotsos et al. 2020). Wetland CH4 emissions are the leading natural causes of
the global CH4 budget. As the second-highest GHG, CH4 is strongly associated
with climate feedback. However, IPCC’s fifth assessment study did not comprehen-
sively analyze wetland CH4 feedback due to data shortages. Therefore, the degree
to which future wetland expansion and CH4 emissions will evolve and thus affect
climate feedback is of significant concern. Under the Representative Concentration
Pathway, climate change-induced shifts in boreal wetland scale and temperature-
driven changes in tropical CH4 emissions will surpass 38–56% of anthropogenic
CH4 emissions by the end of the twenty-first century. Wetland CH4 feedback trans-
lates by the end of the twenty-first century into an increase in additional global mean
radiative pushing from 0.04 to 0.19 W·m−2 (Zhang et al. 2017).
Human demand for livestock products has gradually grown over the past few
decades, primarily due to dietary reforms and population increase, with significant
environmental consequences. It is estimated that gross CH4 emissions in 2014 were
97.1 million tons (MT) of CH4 or 2.72 gigatons (Gt) of CO2 -Eq. (1 MT = 1012 g, 1 Gt
= 1015 g) from ruminant livestock, comprising 47–54% of all agricultural non-CO2
GHG emissions. It is also revealed that since the 1890s, ruminant CH4 emissions
have increased by 332% (73.6 MT CH4 or 2.06 Gt CO2 -eq). Furthermore, findings
indicate that livestock sector in drylands had a 36% higher emission intensity (CH4
emissions/ km2 ) than non-drylands in 2014, due to the combined effect of higher
livestock population growth rate and low feed quality (Dangal et al. 2017; Tapio
et al. 2017).
To satisfy growing demand for meat-rich diets, livestock numbers are also rising.
Sustainability of this trend was questioned, and shifts in the world’s future, such as
climate change, making certain areas less common to livestock. Wild herbivorous and
livestock rely primarily on nutrient chemistry or composition forage seeds. Nutrition
is strongly associated with weight gain, milk production and reproductive health, and
nutrition is the main decision-making factor in enteric CH4 output. Protein forage
gain also increased with the inclusion of nitrogen fertilizer. It decreased due mostly
to high-temperature increases, likely due to mixture changes in plant selection, as
well as shifts in phenology and physiology. This concludes and describes a significant
input on climate change, where rising temperatures decrease grass nutrient value and
increase methane production by 0.9% with a temperature rise of 1 °C, providing an
additional climate-forcing impact. In North America, the large sections of Eastern
and Central Europe and Asia, methane production is expected to rise across the high-
emission scenario. There is a clear need for size, presence, cattle location, and heat
stress characterization should be added in potential modelling work (Lee et al. 2017;
Moeletsi et al. 2017).
Combined with CH4 , nitrous oxide (N2 O) is another primary GHG emitted by
livestock by enteric fermentation and manure regulation. Due to rearing business,
developing countries produce large amounts of CH4 and N2 O (Forabosco et al. 2017).
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Beyond Climate Change: Impacts,
Adaptation Strategies, and Influencing
Factors
Vahid Karimi, Naser Valizadeh, Sadegh Rahmani, Masoud Bijani,
and Mandana Karimi
Abstract Climate change is considered as one of the most severe and common
environmental phenomena. This phenomenon has had the most damaging effects
on the local-agricultural communities due to its impact on employment, income
sources, and agricultural products. The livelihoods of more than half of the local
poor communities depend on this sector and are hence more vulnerable to climate
change. This issue is especially prominent in underdeveloped and developing coun-
tries. This chapter investigates the impacts of climate change to identify strategies for
adaptation of local and agricultural communities to this phenomenon and to describe
the influencing constructs on the acceptance of those strategies. The investigation has
been completed in three stages, including identifying and explaining the most crit-
ical impacts of climate change, identifying and introducing methods for adaptation of
local and agricultural communities to climate change, and identifying and introducing
constructs affecting adaptation strategies’ adoption. A documentary research method
based on reviewing and analysing various studies around the world was adopted to
delve deeper into the topic. The first stage analysis showed that endangering human
health, reducing food security, aggravating water shortages, damaging vital infras-
tructure, cultural shocks, deviating from sustainable development goals, threatening
the territorial integrity of the countries, increasing local–regional conflicts resources
over common pool resources, increasing internal and external migration, intensifying
droughts, and increasing poverty in local communities are among the most impor-
tant impacts of climate change. The second stage investigation demonstrated that
V. Karimi (B) · M. Bijani

Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, College of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares
University (TMU), Tehran, Iran
N. Valizadeh
Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, School of Agriculture, Shiraz University,
Shiraz, Iran
S. Rahmani
Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Agricultural Science and Natural Resources
University of Khuzestan, Ahvaz, Iran
M. Karimi
Department of Sociology, University of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada

50 V. Karimi et al.
the adaptation strategies to climate change could be divided into economic/social

management, water resources management, and crop management strategies. The
third stage investigations showed that the socio-economic, natural, human, phys-
ical, institutional, psychological, and agricultural constructs are the most critical
factors affecting adaptation to climate change. Some practical suggestions were also
presented to increase the adaptation of future climate change.
Keywords Climate change · Impact assessment · Adaptation · Vulnerability ·

Adaptation strategies
1 Introduction
In recent years, climate change has been in the policy framework of many countries
(Valizadeh et al. 2020; Karimi et al. 2018). Climate change refers to climate fluctua-
tions, directly and indirectly, related to human activities and change the atmosphere’s
composition. It also refers to climate diversity observed over similar periods (Amos
et al. 2015). Investigations show that the phenomenon of climate change is ranked
first among the ten threatening human factors. Changing rainfall patterns and rising
temperatures are the most critical signs of climate change besides the other nega-
tive impacts on the environment (Nicholls 2011; Aphunu and Nwabeze 2012). Local
communities, which are considered one of the main producers of food globally, suffer
the most losses from this issue (Thoai et al. 2018). The impacts of this phenomenon
through changes in precipitation, temperature, and carbon dioxide can negatively
affect food production systems (karimi et al. 2018). However, the complexity of the
driving and aggravating factors and the entanglement of its negative consequences
have made this phenomenon one of the main concerns of local agrarian commu-
nities worldwide (Campbell 2010). Further, the existence of various definitions of
climate change makes its study more important because it will affect the stakeholder
adaptation strategies and subsequent responses to climate change (Stoutenborough
and Vedlitz 2014). In other words, understanding the impacts of climate change can
lead to a better understanding of the climate resilience promotors at the local level
(Maleksaeidi et al. 2015), besides identifying ways or strategies for actors to adapt to
this phenomenon and awaring about the influencing factors of behavioural changes
in this pathway. These processes can also provide planners with the information they
need to adopt appropriate support policies for sustainable livelihoods and pave way
for sustainable natural resource management, sustainability, and inclusive develop-
ment (Valizadeh and Hayati 2021; Dessai and Sims 2010; Sherval and Askew 2012;
Keshavarz abd Karami 2016; Yazdanpanah et al. 2015; Bijani et al. 2019). There-
fore, the purpose of writing this chapter was to investigate the impacts of climate
change, identify strategies for adaptation of local and agricultural communities to
this phenomenon, and describe the influencing constructs on the acceptance of those
strategies. The specific objectives to achieve this goal included the following:
Beyond Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation … 51
• Identifying and explaining the most critical impacts of climate change;

• Identifying and introducing methods for adaptation of local and agricultural
communities to climate change; and
• Identifying and introducing factors influencing the adoption of strategies for
adaptation to climate change.
2 Research Methodology
This chapter is a documentary and analytical research that was done using the
research and analysis of electronic and library resources. For this purpose, a system-
atic search approach was used to gather the necessary information from different
sources including articles, books, technical reports, master’s theses, doctoral disser-
tations, book chapters, etc. Various databases such as Scopus, Google Scholar,
Springer & Kluwer, Sciencedirect: Elsevier, Taylor and Francis, Wiley Interscience,
Nature, and Proquest were employed to retrieve the related resources. Searching
for resources following specific goals was done in three stages, and in each stage,
different keywords were applied in search engines. In the first stage, the keywords
“climate change impacts”, “climate change consequences”, “climate change rebound
impacts”, “long-term impacts of climate change”, “short-term impacts of climate
change”, “climate change impacts on local communities”, “impact assessment
of climate change”, and “climate change side effects” were used to retrieve the
resources. Retrieved resources were examined after the initial screen to identify and
explain the most critical impacts of climate change. In the second stage, the keywords
“climate change adaptation”, “climate change adaptation strategies”, “climate change
adaptation solutions”, “adaptation to climate change”, “climate change mitigation
strategies” and “climate change coping strategies” were employed to search the rele-
vant literature. Similar to the first stage, the retrieved sources were reviewed after
initial evaluations to identify the most critical strategies for climate change adap-
tation. In the third stage, the keywords “factors influencing adaptation to climate
change”, “adoption of adaptation to climate change”, and “determinants of adapta-
tion to climate change” were used to retrieve the relevant literature from different
sources. The review of the retrieved resources led to identifying the most critical
factors affecting the adoption of adaptation strategies to climate change. For more
straightforward analysis and conclusion, the initial results of the second and third
stages were categorized in the form of some general factors.
3 Impacts of Climate Change
A critical review in various climate change studies shows that this phenomenon
affects almost all components of the living systems. Increasing incidences and
severity of climate events affects the seasonal rainfall patterns, declines food
52 V. Karimi et al.
production, loss of food distribution infrastructure, dwindling assets and livelihood

opportunities, and endangers human health in rural areas. However, the impacts and
consequences of climate change can be summarized as follows:
– Climate change and human health
The health of the world’s population depends on the sustainability and performance
of environmental and physical systems (Mohammadi-Mehr et al. 2018; Sabzali
Parikhani et al. 2018), often referred to as the life support system. The world climate
system is an integral part of this life support system (Karimi et al. 2021). In this
regard, in the early decades of the twenty-first century, when the growing human
impacts on the environment changed the Earth’s geological, biological, and ecolog-
ical systems, a wide range of environmental hazards for the human health has emerged
on a larger scale (McMichael 2003). Climate change has some profound implica-
tions on human health and is recognized as the most significant public health threat
in this century (Mpambela and Mabvurira 2017). However, these negative impacts
are either direct or indirect (Myers et al. 2011). Direct effects on the health include
living in unusual weather conditions (summer heatwaves or winter colds), increasing
natural hazards (floods, hurricanes, and droughts), and increasing the production of
some air pollutants and allergens (McMichael 2003). Prolonged exposure to high
temperatures can cause heat stroke, heat syncope, heat exhaustion, and even death
(Valizadeh et al. 2021; Myers et al. 2011). Natural disasters caused by climate change
such as floods and droughts are often accompanied by anxiety, shock, depression,
sadness, despair, numbness, aggression, sleep disturbance, interpersonal problems,
post-traumatic stress disorder, drug use, and suicide. Besides, climate change-related
heat waves increase aggression, homicide, suicide, spousal abuse, and hospitaliza-
tion rates among those with underlying mental health problems (Gifford and Gifford
2016). The indirect impacts are due to the modifiers of the social system (such as
migration, conflict, destruction of infrastructure, and destruction of crops) and envi-
ronmental elements (such as food, water, soil, and air) (Myers et al. 2011). Through
indirect mechanisms, climate change can affect the transmission of many infectious
diseases and reduce food productivity (McMichael 2003). Also, damage to basic
infrastructure leads to population displacement and contamination of drinking water
by sewage and runoff. Severe runoff from rainfall can also contaminate recreational
water, and the number of bacteria in these places will increase the human disease risks
(Myers et al. 2011). In general, the pathways through which climate change affects
human health include the local modulating influences and the feedback impact of
adaptation measures (Fig. 1).
– Climate change and food security
Food security has a broad and complex meaning and is determined by the interaction
of biological, economic, social, physical, and agricultural factors. This issue can be
addressed more efficiently by considering the food availability, food access, and food
stability (World Bank 2001). Despite extensive efforts for sustainable development
Fig. 1 Pathways by which climate change affects human health included local modulating
influences and feedback influence of adaptation measures (McMichael 2003)
at the international level, the United Nations continues to call for food security as one
of humanity’s most significant challenges (Stephens et al. 2018). Since incoherent
and incomplete food security is a big challenge, it will not be solved in the coming
decades because climate change will have profound and direct impacts on agricul-
tural and food systems over the next few decades (Brown and Funk 2008). Climate
change will be one of the significant threats to food security in developing and under-
developed countries. It will affect the agricultural and livestock sectors directly and
indirectly on many aspects (Masipa 2017). The IPCC report shows that one of the
most severe consequences of climate change is an increase in the number of people
suffering from malnutrition because of the adverse impact of climate change on
global agricultural production (IPCC 2007). Climatic conditions have always been a
challenge for farmers, as the agricultural sector is more vulnerable to climate change,
which directly affects countries’ economic activity and increases the risk of hunger
and malnutrition (Masipa 2017). Meanwhile, most studies on the impact of climate
change on food security is focused on a single dimension of food security, i.e., food
production (availability). Its impact on other aspects of food security (access, use,
and stability) has not been considered. However, climate change affects food secu-
rity’s four major dimensions: availability, accessibility, stability, and use (Edame
et al. 2011). Food security worldwide is at risk due to climate change and declining
yields of key crops (Bocchiola et al. 2019). According to the IPCC, climate change
54 V. Karimi et al.
can reduce food yields in parts of Africa by 10 to 20 per cent (IPCC 2007). Higher
temperatures, reduced rainfall, and increased rainfall diversity reduce crop yields
and threaten food security of low-income and agricultural economics (Deressa et al.
2011). Climate change directly affects agricultural and food products’ availability
due to its effects on crop yields, pests and diseases, soil fertility, and water quality. It
also affects economic growth, income distribution, and demand for food and agricul-
tural products. Climate change harms crop yield stability and physical, economic,
and social access to foods. In nutshell, climate change would reduce agricultural
production, increase food prices, and reduce the purchasing power of vulnerable and
poor households (Edame et al. 2011).
– Climate change and water resources management
Water is a fundamental and strategic resource for socio-economic development and

conservation of the environment in all its forms (rain, aquifers, streams, ponds,
springs, lakes, rivers, oceans, and snow) (Valizadeh et al. 2020). However, water
scarcity, water quality decline, floods, and droughts are the challenges that can be
exacerbated by climate change (Urama and Ozor 2011; Estrela et al. 2012). In the
climate change matrix, water resources are at the centre stage of exploitation. In other
words, the impact of climate change on water resources will shortly become more
apparent than predicted (Kusangaya et al. 2014). The effect of climate change on
the availability and quality of freshwater has made water a top priority for countries
(Safonov et al. 2019). Water resources are sensitive to the changes in climate pattern.
It is believed that due to climate change, there are changes in water resources as
climate change leads to increased runoff. However, due to suppression of evapotran-
spiration, it leads to an increase in CO2 concentration (Singh et al. 2014). It is also
notable that climate change has increased water stresses and conflicts by reducing
runoff (mainly in the Mediterranean region, some parts of Europe, Central and South
America, and South Africa). In some other water scared areas, such as South and East
Asia, climate change is increasing the runoff. However, these increases are generally
not helpful because they occur during the wet seasons. In other words, excess water
may not be available in the dry seasons when needed (Estrela et al. 2012). Warmer
temperatures can affect water quality in several other ways, including decreasing
dissolved oxygen levels, increasing water pollution, reducing river flow, increasing
algal blooms, and increasing the likelihood of saline infiltration near coastal areas.
Acid rain is another primary reason for the disturbance of water quality due to the
addition of sulphur and nitrogen compounds into it. Further, the changes in water
flow characteristics intensify the transfer of chemical loads into rivers (Singh et al.
2014). Climate change is recognized as one of the most severe threats to ground-
water, which is expected to affect the hydrological processes such as precipitation and
evapotranspiration specifically. These processes can have a direct impact on surface
water flow and recharge of groundwater aquifers and thus increase the water storage
potential of reservoirs and groundwater aquifers (Valizadeh et al. 2021; Tesfahunegn
and Gebru 2020).
– Climate change and vital infrastructure
Since the second half of the twentieth century, the economic damage of natural
disasters related to climate change, including floods and droughts, has increased
manifolds (Safonov et al. 2019). Climate models predict that by 2050, climate change
will reduce agricultural land productivity by 10 to 20% in many developing countries.
It has a significant impact on the agricultural sector, affecting 10% of agricultural
lands. Accordingly, the farming households dealing with reduced crop production
or reduced yield need to be supported. Otherwise, these changes will affect their
livelihoods and increase their vulnerability to sudden changes (Gouda 2020). In
recent decades, floods have accounted for almost a third of the economic damage
caused by natural disasters worldwide and this damage has been mostly related to
the welfare of communities and infrastructures. Another factor in the destruction
of infrastructures is the melting of polar icecaps due to rising temperatures. As the
catastrophe strikes, nearly three-quarters of the Arctic population will be at risk, and
this will be specially important for Russia. The damage to the country’s infrastructure
(roads, gas and oil pipelines, heating networks, buildings, power lines, etc.) will
increase manifolds (Safonov et al. 2019).
– Climate change and culture
Human beings look at nature through the lens of their beliefs, knowledge, and goals.
In other words, their behaviour is based on their perceptions of nature and not on
the actual structure of nature (Thomas et al. 2019). Environmental events put long-
term and cumulative pressures on human life that can ultimately lead to cultural
shocks. Cultural shocks are events or situations that cause a rift in “common ways
of acting or thinking”. Cultural damages and shocks are social processes that lead to
the disruption of systematic cultural foundations and existing social orders. Climate
change is thus a profound challenge to global lifestyles and the emergence of growing
cultural damage (Brulle and Norgaard 2019). When the storm hit a poor community
in a developing country on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, women deaths were three
to four times more than men. This lethality rate is interpreted very differently to
some extent by differences in learning and expected behaviour of men and women
(Thomas et al. 2019). Culture and its analysis play a key role in understanding the
causes, concepts, and human responses to climate change (Nail et al. 2013).
– Climate change and the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)
Climate change is one of the severe threats to the sustainable development goals in
various dimensions of environment, human health, food security, economic activities,
natural resources, and infrastructure (Keshavarz and Karami 2014). Table 1 shows
the impacts of climate change on the MDGs, which can be a significant obstacle to
sustainable development (United Nations 2004).
56 V. Karimi et al.
Table 1 Potential impacts of climate change on the MDGs

MDGs Chains related to climate change
Eradication of poverty and hunger – Climate change is affecting people’s
livelihoods
– It affects economic growth by destroying
natural areas and reducing production. The
slowdown in economic growth also has a
direct impact on people’s incomes
– By reducing food production, it exacerbates
food insecurity, especially in Africa
Access to basic education – Climate change leads to forced migration
and lack of time. This also limits educational
opportunities for individuals and children
Gender equality and women’s empowerment – Climate change is exacerbating gender
inequality. The depletion of natural
resources and the reduction of agricultural
production may endanger women’s health.
This can also reduce the time it takes for
them to participate in decision makings
Goals related to health, combating important – Climate change is leading to an increase in
diseases, reducing child mortality and maternal heat-related deaths and heat-related diseases
health – The increased prevalence of diseases such as
malaria, cholera, and dysentery due to
reduced quality of drinking water and food
are the most important consequences of
climate change
Ensuring sustainable development – Climate change reduces the quality and
efficiency of natural resources and causes
irreversible damage to the ecosystems. It
also reduces biodiversity and destroys the
environment
Global partnership – Climate change is a global concern and
requires global partnership and
accountability. This cooperation is essential
for helping developing countries to adapt to
the harmful impacts of this phenomenon
Source (McGuigan et al. 2002)
– Climate change and territorial integrity
Most of the negative impacts of climate change can be observed in areas such as
the Eastern and Central Africa, the Middle East, Central and East Asia, which are
the scene of many armed conflicts (Hegre and Sambanis 2006). The impacts of
climate change could strengthen opposition groups in a country and thereby threaten
the countries’ territorial integrity. In 1970, a devastating tornado struck Bangladesh
(then ruled by Pakistan) and the blatant contributions of Pakistani leaders accelerated
the formation of the Bangladesh separatist movement, leading to war and conflict
and Bangladesh’s subsequent independence from Pakistan (Kolmannskog 2008).
Besides, one of the most important causes of Darfur tensions has been soil erosion
and desertification. Because rainfall in this area decreased by 30% and millions of
hectares of land in the area turned into a desert (Paskal 2007).
– Climate change and local–regional conflicts resources over common pool

resources
The occurrence of climate change phenomenon that is formed due to reduction and
lack of rainfall and relatively stable temperature changes in an area causes a decrease
in groundwater and surface water levels and a water crisis (Karimi et al. 2018). The
water crisis is exacerbating local, regional, and international conflicts over water. In
recent years, conflicts have intensified in parts of the world that have experienced
water crises due to climate change impacts such as droughts or severe water shortages.
These conflicts show that climate change and its negative consequences, namely
unemployment and poverty, exacerbate local and regional conflicts (Madani and
Zarezadeh 2014).
– Climate change and migration
One of the most catastrophic impacts of climate change is migration. The number
of migrants is increasing due to natural disasters related to climate change
(Kolmannskog and Council 2009). In 2008, 42 million people were forced to migrate
and relocate due to wars and conflicts caused by climate change (UNHCR 2008).
Studies show that there were 25 million environmental migrants in the world in 1995,
and the number of environmental migrants is projected to reach 250 million by 2050.
The number of immigrants will further increase ten times (Myers 2002).
– Climate change and drought
Empirical evidences show that countries are more vulnerable to climate change
induced droughts. Over the past decades, drought, one of the manifestations of
climate change, has become more prevalent in arid and semi-arid countries and has
posed a severe challenge to the communities (Keshavarz et al. 2013; Keshavarz and
Karami 2014). One of the most essential consequences of these droughts is deserti-
fication, which is the third major challenge for the international community climate
change and freshwater scarcity. Prolonged droughts can increase the risk of deserti-
fication due to countries’ fragility in predominantly desert and semi-desert climates
(Reynolds 2008). Another rebound effect of climate change-related droughts is the
dust storms. In many parts of the world, rain and dampness in the soil cause soil cohe-
sion. Prolonged droughts or uncontrolled use of surface water resources by upstream
areas cause water loss and drying of wetlands, swamps, and plains and provide the
basis for dust storms (Jacob and Winner 2009). For example, the continuation of
droughts and drying of rivers and lakes have greatly impacted the intensification of
dust storms in Iran (Karimi et al. 2017).
58 V. Karimi et al.
– Climate change and poverty in local communities
The predominant livelihood of villagers and agrarian communities is tied to agri-

cultural and livestock activities (Keshavarz et al. 2013). Climate change is primarily
destabilizing these essential livelihood source for rural society. Lack of water and the
destruction of agricultural lands and pastures cause a sharp decline in rural income
and create hidden and observable unemployment waves (Karimi et al. 2017). In
recent decades, climate change has led to the complete evacuation of some villages
and forced migration of villagers to neighbouring cities or metropolises in different
countries. The severity of the impacts of climate change has been such that many of
this phenomenon’s negative consequences remain irreparable and have caused heavy
damage to rural communities (Zobeidi et al. 2016). Together, this phenomenon is
destroying the livelihoods of villagers, drastically reducing their purchasing power,
and exacerbating the poverty. Also, the migration to cities and metropolises and the
lack of jobs in new destinations increases the unemployment rate and the prevalence
of slums and false jobs (Maleksaeidi et al. 2015).
4 Climate Change Adaptation Strategies
Modification in socio-economic and ecological systems in response to real or

expected climate impacts and stimuli is called adaptation to climate change (Plummer
et al. 2013). Adaptation features and behaviours of the system can increase the
ability to cope with external stresses. Adaptation involves responding to a shock
created by man or nature. This response can occur before, during, or after the event
and contribute to the sustainability or improvement of socio-ecological systems
(Renaud et al. 2010). Studies show that local and agricultural communities in different
geographical areas use a wide range of adaptation strategies, e.g., Vietnamese farmers
use strategies such as changing crops, cultivation methods, and planting calendar to
cope with climate change and drought (Ngo 2016), indicating that the experience
of hazards is the most important determining factor in dealing with these natural
phenomena. Similarly, the adaptation of local institutions to climate change using
an agent-based modelling approach by Wang et al. (2013) showed that the livestock
livelihood strategies in Mongolia and China are very different. Social participation
was one of the livelihood adaptation strategies observed in Mongolia. Local institu-
tions, including the government, the market, and social institutions, play an important
role in shaping and facilitating adaptation to climate change and livestock farmers’
livelihoods. Forage storage, diversification of livelihood resources, and different
markets were three categories of adaptation strategies in central Mongolia. The
adaptation strategies in these groups were mainly formed with government and local
institutions’ support. While pointing to the impacts of drought in the Herat region
of Afghanistan, Iqbal et al. (2018) pointed out that farmers interpret climate issues
based on their religious beliefs. However, they perceive drought as a climatic and
environmental phenomenon based on rising temperatures, declining rainfall, overuse

of groundwater, financial weakness, pasture degradation, and deforestation. Analysis
of farmers’ readiness and adaptation measures in Herat also show that low education,
low income, and tendency to rely on off-farm income sources have led to passive adap-
tation measures and short-term response strategies. From Pakistani farmers’ perspec-
tive (Fahad and Wang, 2020), factors such as reduced soil fertility, water scarcity,
change in crop yields, and plant diseases are indicative of climate change and drought.
Their solution to these fluctuations was to change the type and variety of crops, and
fertilizers improve the quality of seeds and toxins, store water. However, these farmers
faced serious constraints along the way, such as labour shortages, lack of market
access, poverty, lack of government support, lack of water resources, lack of credit
resources, and lack of knowledge and information. In Tanzania (Below et al. 2012)
the coping strategies are classified in three categories, including water management
in agriculture (12 adaptation strategies), farm and farm management adjustment (12
adaptation strategies) and diversification outside of the farm (9 adaptation strategies).
Agricultural water management strategies include changing the irrigation system,
building ponds and canals, planting cover crops, deep tillage, hedge, appropriate irri-
gation, mulching, co-irrigation, and irrigation pumps. Crop management strategies
include afforestation, use of organic livestock manure, use of mineral fertilizers, crop
rotation, climate change resistant crops (e.g., sorghum, millet, peanuts, sunflower),
expansion of agricultural lands outside of the area, expansion of agricultural lands
within the sector/area, planting vegetables in the off-season, keeping livestock, inter-
cropping, and planting species with shorter lifespans. Off-farm strategies include
crafts, trade, natural resources (wood, charcoal, fish, and minerals), rental of prop-
erty and belongings, professional occupations, technical expert, temporary migration,
and traditional medicine/treatment. Here the adaptation strategies are considered as a
function of farmers’ perceptions of climate change, social, and economic characteris-
tics of the household (wealth, education, work experience, age, membership in social
groups, number of dependents, the gender of the head of the household, financial
capital, and productive assets), farm characteristics (land ownership and soil fertility),
institutional frameworks (access to agricultural extension services), and infrastruc-
ture (market access). In Bangladesh, the rural households perceive and understand
(Alam et al. (2017) the profound impacts of climate change on their resources and
livelihood, leading to an increase in their vulnerability. Therefore, households used
a wide range of agricultural and non-agricultural strategies such as cultivating new
crops, changing planting times, focusing on planting garden crops, and migration
to adopt to such changes. Improving access to financial support and information on
appropriate adaptation strategies at the local level improves vulnerable households’
resilience. The drought coping approaches and adaptation strategies (Speranza 2010)
for adapting the ranchmen to Kenya’s drought impacts, where inadequate nutrition
and livestock diseases were the most important challenges for one-third of ranchmen
families during periods of drought. Ranchmen responses to the drought period mainly
included the intensification of rangeland use. Therefore, less attention was paid to
improving rangeland quality. The dependence of many livestock ranchmen on their
60 V. Karimi et al.
livestock was one of the main reasons for not selling livestock in drought condi-
tions, and this caused financial losses to these households. Providing developmental
services, maintaining infrastructure, ensuring the safety of livestock movement, and
sustaining pastures were considered appropriate strategies for coping with drought.
In general, Table 2 shows the most important strategies chosen for an adaptation to
climate change, extracted using a literature review and then classified into several
categories.
Table 2 Climate change adaptation strategies

Category Adaptation strategies Number of Sources
studies
Economic/social Buying and selling 3 Wheeler et al. (2013), Below
management agricultural land et al. (2012), Mertz et al.
(2009)
Selling of agricultural water 2 Wheeler et al. (2013),
Keshavarz et al. (2013)
Job diversity 3 Below et al. (2012),
Speranza (2010), Wang et al.
(2013)
Leasing agricultural lands 2 Below et al. (2012), Osbahr
et al. (2008)
Crop-livestock insurance 2 Karimi et al. (2017)
Migration 2 Zhang et al. (2013), Karimi
et al. (2017)
Water resources Buying extra water 2 Wheeler et al. (2013), Below
management et al. (2012)
Improving the irrigation 5 Wheeler et al. (2013),
system Keshavarz et al. (2013),
Below et al. (2012), Urquijo
and De Stefano (2015)
Dredging rivers and canals 2 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
Urquijo and De Stefano
(2015)
Water storage (pool 2 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
construction) Below et al. (2012)
Well digging 3 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
and De Stefano. (2015)
Excavation of wells 3 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
and De Stefano. (2015)
Change the area under 3 Wheeler et al. (2013),
cultivation Keshavarz et al. (2013), Ngo
(2016)
(continued)
Table 2 (continued)
Category Adaptation strategies Number of Sources
studies
Crop management Changing the cultivation 4 Wheeler et al. (2013),
pattern Keshavarz et al. (2013),
Karimi et al. (2020), Urquijo
and De Stefano (2015)
Crop rotation 3 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
Below et al. (2012), Alam
(2017)
Crop diversity 7 Wheeler et al. (2013),
Keshavarz et al. (2013),
Below et al. (2012), Mertz
et al. (2009), Bryan et al.
(2009), Ngo (2016)
Planting drought tolerant 3 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
species Below et al. (2012), Ngo
(2016)
Changing planting date 3 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
Bryan et al. (2009), Ngo
(2016)
Planting high yielding 2 Karimi et al. (2017), Wang
species et al. (2013)
Use of fertilizers and 2 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
pesticides Below et al. (2012)
Soil protection (protective 4 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
plowing, mulching, and so Below et al. (2012), Bryan
on) et al. (2009)
Land leveling 1 Keshavarz et al. (2013)
5 Factors Influencing Adaptation to Climate Change
In addition to the adaptation strategies, some factors facilitate the adoption of adap-
tation strategies in the face of climate change. Therefore, at this stage, the most
important of these factors were extracted and categorized using literature review
and analysis of previous studies. Like adaptation strategies, many studies have been
conducted on the factors affecting the adaptation of rural and agricultural communi-
ties to climate change. However, since these studies have been conducted in different
times, places, and communities, the results of many of them are not generalizable.
In this regard, first, some of these studies are mentioned, and then their results about
factors affecting the adaptation of local communities and agriculture to climate
change are combined. Dang et al. (2014) showed that in Vietnam’s rice farmers
the socio-economic factors and the availability of resources affect their adaptation
and decisions in response to climate change. When these farmers perceived a higher
62 V. Karimi et al.
probability of loss from climate change, they were more likely to develop adap-
tive behaviours. Farmers were also more adaptable when they had a greater under-
standing of climate change consequences or when they were pressured to adapt by
other people (social environments). It showed that the protection motivation theory
is a useful framework for understanding farmers’ intention to adapt and behave in
response to climate change. Habiba et al. (2012) stated that in drought adaptation
in northern Bangladesh the farmers believe that changes in rainfall and temperature
cause drought. They further believe that declining groundwater and surface water,
increasing demand and poor water management approaches, increasing population,
and deforestation exacerbates the drought. Factors affecting farmers’ adaptation to
drought included agricultural management practices, crop diversity, exploitation of
new water resources, and the use of new technologies. Similarly, the Pakistani farmers
(Ashraf and Routray 2013) consider the drought as a result of religious beliefs, rising
temperatures, decreasing rainfall, changing rainfall times, improper use of ground-
water and population growth. They used agricultural and non-agricultural strate-
gies to deal with drought. Iranian farmers’ adaptation to climate change (Keshavarz
et al. (2013) based on principal component analysis and fuzzy logic is classified
into three categories: low, medium, and high. This classification was based on the
farmer household’s adaptive capacity and sensitivity and the agricultural exploitation
system. Adaptation capacity included social, physical, natural, financial, and human
capitals, and the sensitivity of the agricultural exploitation system depended on the
natural resources and livelihood of the family. Factors influencing adaptation include
crop management, water harvesting, crop enhancement, income diversity, and cost
management. In general, (Table 3) the most important constructs affecting adaptation
to climate change in agricultural communities, was classified into several categories.
6 Conclusion and Recommendations
The world’s climate is changing, and this change continues at an unprecedented

rate in the contemporary times. Climate change can be considered one of the severe
issues that threaten sustainable development in terms of environment, human health,
food security, economic activities, natural resources and infrastructure. Meanwhile,
underdeveloped and developing societies’ dependence on the climate causes these
societies to be significantly affected by this phenomenon. Therefore, if sustainable
development is one of the central policies of countries with economies based on
natural resources, they should reduce the vulnerability of agriculture and livestock
sectors to climate change. It should be noted that the agricultural and livestock sectors
are more vulnerable to climate change than the industrial and services sector. In this
regard, factors affecting adaptation to climate change and strategies for adapting
these sectors to climate change are essential. Also, pursuing this goal in climate
change research is done not only to select the best policy to reduce the change but
also to provide solutions to reduce the vulnerability of these groups and thus reduce
the inevitable costs. Therefore, this study aimed to identify adaptation strategies
Table 3 Factors influencing adaptation to climate change

Factor Influencing variables Number of studies Sources
Economic Number of employed 3 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
family members Below et al. (2012), Karimi
et al. (2017)
Household income 5 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
Below et al. (2012), Mary
and Majule (2009), Karimi
et al. (2017), Bryan et al
(2009)
Household savings 5 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
Below et al. (2012), Mary
and Majule (2009), Karimi
et al. (2017), Bryan et al.
(2009)
Livestock-farming crop 2 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
insurance Karimi et al. (2017)
Social Impact of reference groups 3 Dang et al. (2014), Wang
et al. (2013), Melka et al.
(2015)
Intra-group communication 4 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
Below et al. (2012), Karimi
et al. (2017), Wang et al.
(2013)
Extra-group 3 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
communication Below et al. (2012), Wang
et al. (2013)
Natural Soil fertility 3 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
Below et al. (2012), Bryan
et al. (2009)
Water and soil quality 3 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
Habiba et al. (2012),
Wheeler et al. (2013)
Agricultural water 4 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
Karimi et al. (2018),
Wheeler et al.
(2013), Pandey et al. (2015)
Physical Farm size 5 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
Below et al. (2012),
Wachinger et al. (2013),
Butler et al. (2014)
Number of livestock 3 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
Karimi et al. (2017),
Speranza et al. (2010)
Characteristics of irrigation 2 Keshavarz et al. (2013)
and agricultural systems
(continued)
64 V. Karimi et al.
Table 3 (continued)
Human Education 5 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
Below et al. (2012),
Plummer et al. (2013),
Wachinger et al. (2013)
Age 5 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
Below et al. (2012), Karimi
et al. (2017), Wachinger
et al. (2013)
Knowledge about climate 4 Mary and Majule (2009),
change Marin (2010), Pandey
et al. (2015), Plummer et al.
(2013)
Institutional Access to extension 4 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
services Below et al. (2012), Bryan
et al. (2009), Melka et al.
(2015)
Access to markets 3 Below et al. (2012), Karimi
et al. (2017)
Access to climate 3 Karimi et al. (2018), Bryan
information et al. (2009), Pandey
et al. (2015)
Access to facilities and 5 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
credits Bryan et al. (2009), Bryan
et al. (2009), Zhang et al.
(2013), Wang et al. (2013)
Psychological Fatalism 4 Dang et al. (2014), Zobeidi
et al. (2016), Wachinger
et al. (2013), Ashraf and
Routray (2013)
Perception of climate 6 Dang et al. (2014), Below
change risk et al. (2012), Mertz et al.
(2009), Mary and Majule
(2009), Wachinger et al.
(2013), Frank et al. (2011)
Attitudes towards climate 8 Dang et al. (2014), Wheeler
change et al. (2013), Melka et al.
(2015), Ashraf and Routray
(2013), Simonsson et al.
(2011), Carlton et al. (2016),
Alam et al. (2017), Udmale
et al. (2014)
Agricultural Type of cultivation 4 Keshavarz et al. (2013), Ngo
(spring/autumn) (2016), Wheeler et al. (2013)
Pest prevalence 2 Keshavarz et al. (2013),
Fahad and Wang (2020)
(continued)
Table 3 (continued)
Drought damage rate 3 Keshavarz et al. (2014),
Maleksaeidi et al. (2015),
Karimi et al. (2018)
and factors affecting the adoption of these strategies to reduce the vulnerability of
communities to climate change. But before focusing on adaptation strategies and the
factors affecting it, an attempt was made to introduce the most important impacts
of climate change in the world including endangering human health, reducing food
security, aggravating water shortages, damaging vital infrastructure, cultural shocks,
deviating from sustainable development goals, threatening the territorial integrity
of the countries, increasing local–regional conflicts resources over common pool
resources, increasing internal and external migration, intensifying droughts, and
increasing poverty in local communities. Further, reduced food security, endangered
human health, increased poverty, and migration are the most important impacts of
climate change, especially in agricultural and rural communities. So, the policy-
makers and decision-makers reduce communities’ vulnerability to climate change
by focusing more on these impacts.
One of the best ways to reduce these impacts is to hold training and enlightenment
courses on the importance of agricultural and rural production systems compatible
with climate change in achieving food security. Besides, educators and practitioners
of these courses should emphasise ways to diversify agricultural and rural activities
under the climate change. The reliance of villagers and farmers on a single source
of income increases their vulnerability. They should be encouraged to use different
sources of income concerning their specific conditional factors. Government support
such as the guaranteed purchase of manufactured products and countering the import
of foreign products (which prevents the sale of products produced by agricultural
and rural communities) can be as facilitating factors in this regard. Taken together,
these measures can reduce poverty and reduce the spread of poverty in rural and
urban communities.
This study divided climate change adaptation strategies into three categories of
socio-economic, water management, and agricultural strategy. The first category
(socio-economic) included buying and selling agricultural land, selling agricultural
water, job diversity, leasing agricultural lands, crop-livestock insurance, and migra-
tion. Given that in the agricultural and rural communities, collective wisdom and
social pressure are one of the main drivers of farmers’ decision to use strategies
to adapt to climate change. It is recommended that managers and implementers of
climate change mitigation programs pay more attention to the existing social capital
such as formal/informal local institutions and organizations. In situations where such
organizations do not exist, intervenors can create them as a first step to pave way for
the planned changes through socio-economic strategies. Such measures should be
taken at the same time as providing facilities such as agricultural loans, subsidies,
distribution of medicines and subsidized fodder, construction of residential centres,
66 V. Karimi et al.
water supply to vulnerable areas, restoration of pasture flora and fauna, training
classes, and guaranteed purchase of products by the government. The second cate-
gory of climate change adaptation strategies was water-related strategies such as
buying extra water, improving the irrigation system, dredging rivers and canals,
water storage (pool construction), well digging, excavating wells and changing the
area under cultivation. The implementation of these solutions should be done in two
steps. The first phase involves behavioural intervention in water use optimization
methods (such as improving the irrigation system and dredging rivers and canals) in
the agricultural and rural community. At this stage, farmers and villagers are mentally
prepared to accept water resources management measures. The second phase involves
the technical and financial support of farmers and villagers to implement the methods.
This step is to ensure the correct implementation of strategies and the sustainability
of their use. The third category of climate change adaptation strategies related to
crop management practices is changing the cultivation pattern, crop rotation, crop
diversity, planting drought-tolerant species, changing planting date, planting high
yielding species, use of fertilizers and pesticides, soil protection, and land levelling.
Like strategies related to water resources management, its implementation requires
two behavioural intervention stages and technical and financial support.
The third phase of the study divided the factors influencing the adaptation of
farmers and villagers to climate change into economic, social, natural, human, phys-
ical, institutional, psychological, and agricultural. The experience of different coun-
tries (developed, developing and underdeveloped) shows that adaptation to climate
change is closely related to each of these factors, and all these factors should
be considered in a comprehensive approach. However, it should not be neglected
that adaptation to climate change is generally a context-specific phenomenon. In
other words, different combinations of these factors may have significant impacts
in different regions. In this regard, it is suggested that before implementing any
program to improve adaptation to climate change, the most critical factors affecting
the adaptation of farmers and villagers be identified.
In general, this study suggests that any planning and intervention in adapta-
tion to climate change requires three steps of identifying the impacts of climate
change, presenting adaptation strategies, and understanding the factors influencing
adaptation.
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Climate Change and Interconnected
Risks to Sustainable Development
Charles C. Anukwonke, Enohetta B. Tambe, Daniel C. Nwafor,

and Khired T. Malik
Abstract The growing concern to improve on human condition and dignity consti-
tutes governments’ primary pursuit across the world. Conversely, this chase is accom-
panied by circumstances that are confronting the basis on which human survival
depends. Amongst these conditions, ‘climate change’, caused by the escalating levels
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is posing the practically significant impact
on human progress. It undermines biodiversity’s productive capacity, distorts hydro-
logical balance, degrades soil nutrients, weakens agricultural production, impedes
educational advancement and hampers human health’s stability. These impacts are
rife, with grave implications and have a multiplier effect. They lead to interconnected
secondary consequences, which disrupt the synergies of sustainable development
goals and worsen the climate challenge in a vicious cycle. The magnitude of these
impacts is not felt proportionately in different regions. Besides their low economic
status, developing countries are severely affected, and the existing gender norms
and patriarchy undermine women and girls’ disaster coping potentials. The conse-
quences of these are inequality within and across nations, as well as intergenerational
inequality. With the global temperature likely to keep rising, humanity is compelled
in charting dynamic pathways of living with changing climate through mitigation
and adaptation strategies. Unfortunately, most studies have addressed human goals
in isolation, and there is infancy on the nexus of ‘sustainable development goals’
and interconnected risks associated with incremental global temperature. An in-
depth understanding of the nexus that sustains human progress, the route through
which climate change disrupts this nexus and integrating mitigation and adapta-
tion approaches that strengthen this nexus’ is required. This approach sets the pace
for achieving environmental sustainability in ways that recognize local priorities,
accommodate the vulnerable needs and ensure the well-being of the earth’s people.
C. C. Anukwonke (B) · E. B. Tambe · D. C. Nwafor

Department of Environmental Management, Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu University, Uli,
Nigeria
K. T. Malik
Department of Environmental Science, Bhagwant University, Ajmer, India

72 C. C. Anukwonke et al.
Keywords Sustainable development · Risks · Economic loss · Adaptation

strategies
1 Introduction
The unceasing quest to improve human well-being constitutes a preliminary plan

for governments across the world. This reality has usually been at the expense of
transforming natural resources to finished products for human consumption. In the
mid-twentieth century, it became clear that the pursuit of global needs and aspi-
rations is threatening the basis on which well-being relies (Meadows et al. 1972).
Among these threats to human progress and well-being, global climate disruption is
posing the most significant defiance to the environmental security of the earth and
the heritage of future generations (Jafari 2013; World Bank 2016). Although natural
occurrences such as variations in the earth’s orbital characteristics, volcanic erup-
tion, solar output variations, plate tectonics among others were observed to alter the
global temperature, they are limited in their total contributions to global tempera-
ture changes (Eneji et al. 2017; IPCC 2018; Jafari 2013; Nwankwoala 2015). Thus,
humans have remained the causative agent of the changing climate world.
Several reports from the ‘Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’ (IPCC)
have confirmed and linked climatic perturbations to the rising human efforts and the
eventual undue emissions of greenhouse gases that started during the industrializa-
tion era (IPCC 2018). This change in temperature of the planet stems from atmo-
spheric retention of heat. When the suns radiations reach the surface of earth, they
are both assumed into space and absorbed by the earth. On absorption of visible light
(longer wavelength), the universe emits some portions of the trapped energy back
into the thin air in the form of heat (shorter wavelength infrared radiations). In this
natural process, the heat-trapping gases such as water vapours (H2 O), carbon dioxide
(CO2 ), methane (CH4 ) and nitrous oxide absorb the reflected energy and disrupt the
heat processes, thus making the earth warmer and conducive for life. Without this
natural process, the earth would have been too cold (−18 ºC) for the survival of
human habitation and other myriad life forms. Unfortunately, due to anthropogenic
activities there is an increasing emission of greenhouse gases including CFCs (chlo-
rofluorocarbons), HCFCs (hydrochlorofluorocarbons), HFCs (hydrofluorocarbons),
PFCs (perfluorocarbons), SF6 (Sulphur hexafluoride) that further reduces heat loss
into outer space, thus making the universe hotter than expected, a scenario referred
to as ‘the greenhouse effect’.
According to archival data, the developed countries with their characterizing expe-
ditious industrialization and associated manufacturing and consumption trends, emit
roughly three-fourth of the cumulative greenhouse gases, e.g. in the twentieth century,
developed countries, with only 15% of the world population, accounted for most
greenhouse gas emissions (Wei et al. 2016). On the other hand, the lagging industri-
alization capacity of the developing nations with higher population figures limits the
levels of GHG emissions accruing from them. By the year 2030, just over half of the
Climate Change and Interconnected Risks … 73
total emissions will be contributed by the developing countries, mainly due to rising
human numbers, needs, economic productivity and growth (Ward and Mahowald
2014). Following this growing concern, 194 countries agreed with the baseline eval-
uation in ratifying the ‘United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change’
(United Nations 1992). Since then, there have been several international conferences
and workshops to chart out a path on reducing emissions and assessing commitments.
Although several efforts geared towards reducing global emissions, and the
concomitant rise in global temperature is still going on (Jafari 2013). Human activi-
ties have increased the global temperature by 1 ºC over the pre-industrial level, and
with the current pace of warming, it is likely to reach 1.5 ºC between 2030 and
2052 (IPCC 2018). Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) have estimated that the changing
temperature will cause global sea level to rise between 50 and 190 cm from the
years 1990 to 2100, with grave implications on coastal communities. The conse-
quences are rife and are already being felt, especially in developing countries, with
wide-scale effects on our planet’s sustainability due to adverse ecological, social and
economic impacts (CRED and UNISDR 2017; Dale and Frank 2017). The improper
management of these impacts leads to secondary effects which worsen the existing
human suffering, degrade environmental health and exacerbate the climate challenge
(Bradshaw and Fordham 2013; DESA 2017; Onwutuebe 2019).
For successful climate change mitigation, a holistic appreciation of the nexus that
supports human society and how climate change disrupts the synergy is necessary
(Cramer et al. 2018). Unfortunately, within the scope of the sustainable develop-
ment plan, and the research that has deciphered about sustaining human progress
and the interconnected damage to human development caused by climate change is
still in its infancy. With the growing need to support human well-being and the diver-
sity of flora and fauna, understanding the scope of interconnected risks associated
with climate change and deploying trans-boundary and trans-sectoral adaptation and
mitigation strategies to these risks have become imperative. These survival strate-
gies are increasingly becoming a subject of importance in defining a safe corridor
for humanity.
2 Human Goals in the Face of Changing Climate
2.1 Nexus of Human Goals for Sustainable Development
Achieving human progress requires a meticulous harmony of goals. Defining these

goals and setting targets to measure achievements have become common at the
international agenda (United Nations 2015, 2017). As the race towards sustainable
development is becoming a daunting feat, the list of seventeen (17) UN Sustainable
Development Goals, challenges the perception of human advancement (Hall et al.
2016; Liu et al. 2018). Rockstrom (2016), posits that human progress, as interpreted
in the SDGs, could be achieved through a collaborative approach which handles
the synergies and tradeoffs within different aspects. Thus, there is a need to reveal
the dynamics of human progress imperatives as multi-consideration of the synergies
would explore the interactions among sectors and deduce the peculiar implications
of climate change as a driver of environmental change.
Tracks of nature reserves (biodiversity), water cycle, soil resources, agriculture,
quality and improved education and health are associated nucleus of human need
areas affected by climate change. These variables are aligned directly or inter-
connected to the seventeen SDGs’ failure or progress (United Nations 2017). For
example, in a conducive climatic condition (goal 13), soil health is maintained; water-
sheds are secured and the hydrological cycle is balanced (goals 14 and15) when the
learning environment is conducive and healthy (goals 3 and 4); agricultural systems
are productive and strengthen farmers’ safety nets (goals 1 and 8). Increasing agri-
cultural yields reduce hunger (goal 2), enhance human health and well-being (goal
3), empower farmers’ ability to give quality education to their children and mini-
mize school drop-outs (goal 4). Educational progress is aligned with technological
progress which contributes to handling complex global challenges (goal 9), creates
decent jobs, enhances economic growth and makes the world prosperous (goal 8).
Better income and well-being for communities reduce intra and intergenerational
inequality and international inequality (goals 5 and 10). A habitable climate will
reduce climate-related disaster and makes our settlements more livable and sustain-
able (goal 11), guarantees a resilient economy, sustain clean water, enhance proper
sanitation system and reduce health challenges (goals 3, 6 and 8). This will further
reduce dependence on unsustainable energy sources for fans and air conditioning
(goal 7).
Furthermore, the goals mentioned above are strengthened when there are robust
institutions and governance systems (goal 16) that ensure effective citizen participa-
tion in decision-making. Externalities of commodities from the cradle to the grave
are internalized into the cost of the entities (goal 12); resource sharing is objective;
expression of goodwill for tomorrow; enhance gender parity (goal 5) and protects
the vulnerable. Stable institutions are crucial for efficacious climate action to address
climate change as they secure peace and sustainable development (UNFCCC 2020).
Reliable institution per se require a holistic approach to handling all excesses that
could arise from corruption and eventually jeopardize climate action attainment.
With these approaches, the likelihood of protests which degenerate to conflict is
minimized, and partnership at the domestic and international level is strengthened
(goal 17). This behaviour yields a just, productive and a secure global feature.
Regrettably, when climate change inflicts, the system that sustains the progress
is disrupted, degenerating to human suffering and degrading environmental health
(Newman 2019; Nga 2020). The direct challenge of human needs (biodiversity, water,
soil, agriculture, quality education and health) by climate change degenerates to
interconnected secondary impacts and this relationship is characterized by a ‘vicious
cycle’. These impacts include insecurity, inequality, hunger, poor health, degraded
living standards, disruption of settlements and infrastructure, loss of descent jobs
and, increasing demand for unsustainable energy. Impeding educational progress and
other areas of human life that fall within the ambits of issues under consideration by
the sustainable development agenda (United Nations 2017) exacerbates the cycle.
2.2 Climate Change, Natural Resources and Risks

to Sustainable Development
The abundance of life forms and environmental interaction are the core processes
that sustain life on earth (Ricard 2014; Sintayehu 2018). These interactions provide
shelter to some species, regulate temperature, clean air, freshwater, preserve and
enhance soil nutrient, and the livelihood of the people living within the backyard of
these resources (Langat et al. 2016; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland 2013).
While deforestation, for example, increases the concentration of atmospheric carbon
and subsequently, global temperature, forest productivity also increases as a result
of increased photosynthesis (Hickler et al. 2015). Unfortunately, the rise in temper-
ature increases the risk of droughts, pests, fire, invasive species and other stressors,
decreasing forest productivity (Dale and Frank 2017). As the temperature rises, the
indigenous flora and fauna disappear with new species’ emergence, while some
animal species migrate northward (Sintayehu 2018). Some of the migratory species
are facing the challenge of adapting to new environments. The presence of invasive
species and other unknown pests bring new ill-health and add to the miseries of
human health (Howard 2019). Furthermore, the warmer temperature has a feedback
mechanism, following its capacity to hold more water vapour (a greenhouse gas) in
the atmosphere, hence adding greenhouse gas concentrations (Held and Soden 2000;
Sherwood 2009).
Increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 and associated rising temperature of the
planet is raising the temperature of aquatic environments, enhancing aquatic acidi-
fication, disrupting the coral shells building, habitat sabotage and disruption of the
food chains (Colette 2018; Neelmani et al. 2019). These anomalies also increase the
frequency of hypoxia and consequently offset the frequency of fish deaths, reduce
wetlands coverage and the diversity of fish populations. A reduction in fish population
affects the fishing industry’s revenue, jobs, human food security and the productive
and growing cycles of some species. When the seasonal abundance of fish sources
fails to synchronize with migratory times, their survival is threatened (Mastrantonis
et al. 2019). Increasing temperature affects groundwater recharge. Consequently,
springs and small streams are drying up, reducing their potential of recharging
wetlands. This deficiency leads to a drop in wetland coverage, lower water quality
and a decrease in the diversity of aquatic life.
Climate change is also increasing precipitation in some regions of the world, and
with dwindling vegetation cover, the frequency of flooding and erosion is increasing
(CRED and UNISDR 2017). These conditions have resulted in the relocation of
the residents of affected areas to safer zones, which exacerbates the existing land
use impacts. While relocation to safer zones weakens traditional social networks, it
creates more impervious surfaces, thus reducing the natural flood-absorbing capaci-
ties of wetlands, floodplains and natural vegetation. Increasing the risk of erosion and
flooding has usually caused injury to people and the loss of human lives. Further-
more, erosion and flooding have been causing significant impacts on watersheds,
potable water supplies, sanitation, ecosystems, agriculture, infrastructure, aesthetics
of the environment and human well-being (Craighead 2017). After a flood event, for
example, tangible and intangible losses occur. These tangible losses ( e.g. clean-up
cost, rental income from buildings, lower revenues and loss of jobs) and intangible
losses (e.g. loss of human life, physical forms of injury, destruction of heritage sites)
constitute a higher proportion of the GDP of the poor compared to the wealthy coun-
tries (CRED and UNISDR 2017; Hallegatte et al. 2016; Paprotny et al. 2018). The
disruption of businesses and stoppage of production in the industrial and agriculture
sector, for example, affects decent jobs, weakens households’ economic stability and
impedes economic growth. Furthermore, recurrent flooding in the emerging coun-
tries destroys national economies and frustrates efforts to accumulate tangible human
capital, thereby wrecking the attainment of sustainable development.
The influence of climate change-related disasters is a universal catastrophe
although there is a disparity in how it affects men and women in reality. Women
and girls are more vulnerable to climatic disasters than men and boys (Hamidazada
et al. 2019). This disparity in gender and vulnerability to disaster is more challenging
in developing countries than in developed countries. In the wake of these disasters,
women and girls have a higher chance of death than men (Bradshaw and Fordham
2013; DESA 2017), because due to socio-cultural and existing ‘gender norms’, these
females have a limited access to resources. Likewise, they lag behind in the actual
capacity to cope with climate change-related disasters, such as available information,
education, health and wealth (land and infrastructures); hence their vulnerability is
relatively higher than men. Following these losses suffered by women during disas-
ters, they become more dependent on their male counterparts and are subjected to
several induced impacts such as coercion and trauma, timely marriage pressure,
limited educational opportunities and increased family workloads (USAID 2015).
Furthermore, patriarchy and the practice of preserving and transcending abso-
lute values and assets in men’s lineage is a common practice. Men are believed
to be a sign of hope and sustainability of the family (Ajala 2017). As a result,
women are marginalized at the degree of proprietary rights and access to land
resources. Onwutuebe 2019 posits that male dominance over women on resource
allocation accounts for a drop in women’s ability to cope with climate change-
induced perturbations. A significant proportion of women are involved in farming
operations (Ezemonye 2015) a climate-sensitive livelihood. Their vulnerability to
climate change-related shocks is relatively more significant than men. With their
mainstay being inflicted, a reduction in income is being observed, putting them at
risk of becoming extremely poor and vulnerable to poverty.
The poor are the primary group of people contributing the most harm to environ-
mental quality (WCED 1987). Despite wide contestation on this opinion on poverty-
environment nexus, the indigent is grossly trusting on natural endowments for liveli-
hood and are engaged in unsustainable survival practices such as over-dependence on
fuelwood for cooking, farming and settling on zones which weaken environmental
resistance to disasters (Kassa et al. 2018; Khan et al. 2019). These practices increase
CO2 levels in the atmosphere, threaten their livelihood, weaken income, deteriorate
health; thus worsening the climate challenge and well-being. In this regard, Nwag-
bara et al. (2012) and WCED (1987) claimed that no society can address sustain-
able development in isolation of the dual problems of poverty and environmental
degradation.
The scale of climate change-related impacts affects the survival pathways of
millions of people as it could cause national and regional insecurity. There is no signif-
icant correlation between climate change and violent hostility. However, existing
conflicts in natural resource use may be exacerbated by climate-related factors, espe-
cially when society’s economy is highly dependent on natural resources (SIDA 2018).
Reducing access to water and extreme drought due to changing and threatening
climate endanger food security and undermine households and communities’ liveli-
hoods. This leads to episodic events which are multifactorial and complex. These
may embrace declining livelihood, increasing migration, changing pastoral mobility
pattern, tactical considerations and exploitation by elites (Mobjork and van Baalen
2016). When people’s livelihoods are being affected, it is believed that they stand to
use the option of violence or joining some armed groups. As violent conflicts distort
traditional social networks, people are forced to adopt unsustainable livelihoods. This
results in perpetuating livelihood-conflict cycle, and worsening insecurity. Growing
insecurity in a nation or region undermines the need to work together, reduce trav-
elling and impede global partnership (United Nations 2017). Therefore, working
in synergy is indispensable to combat the grievous climate change and enhance
sustainable development.
2.3 Climate Change, Soils, Agriculture and Risks

Climate change reduces the capacity of soils and agricultural systems to sustain the
increasing food needs of ever-increasing humans and other animals (FAO 2019).
It disrupts the soil’s nutrient balance, thereby degrading its quality to support
food production (Brevik 2013; Kumar and Das 2014). Organic matter, an essen-
tial constituent of soil quality, gives it the structure and stability and ensures its water
holding capacity. These organic matter characteristics enhance a suitable environ-
ment for microflora and fauna to thrive, making the soil productive (Eglin 2015).
With the rising temperature, the organic matter is decomposed and lost as CO2 to the
atmosphere, while exacerbating the climate challenge and decreasing the productive
capacity of the soil.
Furthermore, rising temperature, decreasing rainfall which subsequently leads
to droughts in some region, thus resulting in increased groundwater dependency.
In low lying coastal areas, increasing groundwater use for domestic, industrial and
agricultural purposes further depletes the water table and allows saltwater to leach
into the soil (Pulido-Bosch et al. 2018). This challenge affecting around 20% of
cultivable land globally is degrading soil health, resulting in stunted and uneven
plant growth (Machado and Serralheiro 2017). Soil salinization reduces agricultural
output, loss of jobs, increasing food prices, enhanced hunger and degraded human
health status. Declining agricultural output means lower income for farmers and a
threat to their safety net.
Consequently, the price rise of animal feed and meat further threatens the food
security. When institutions and policies are weak in handling food security, especially
in developing countries, rising food prices lead to social unrest and violent conflict
(Bellemare 2012; Smith 2014). Any desire to explore new and favorable frontiers for
agriculture will increase natural vegetation removal and worsen the climate challenge.
The susceptibility to climate change-related risks and tragedies is most signifi-
cant for least developed countries (Africa, Asia and Latin America) in the tropical
and sub-tropical regions who rely mainly on agriculture-a climate-sensitive source of
livelihood (CRED and UNISDR 2017). The rising temperature will worsen inequality
across rich and poor nations. Furthermore, penury incidence is way higher in rural
environments than the urban settlements of these least developed countries (FAO
2018; Gondwe 2019; Mba et al. 2018). The negative implications of climate change
on agriculture and soils in these regions will exacerbate poor people’s existing poverty
status and make the non-poor vulnerable to poverty, with a mesh network of conse-
quences that has negative implications on intra and intergenerational equity (UNDP
2019). Poor harvest from agricultural practices leads to insufficiency in farmers’
income and inability to synchronize the income with the increasing price hikes of
other commodities and needs. With the farmer’s household having a larger household
size, the dependent individuals face the challenge of meeting food needs, medical
facilities, appropriate sanitation and primary education among others (Adepoju and
Yusuf 2012). Poor nutrition degenerates to stunted growth, challenges intelligence,
weakens a girl child’s reproductive ability, reduces output, leads to poor health and
reduces the overall life expectancy (Chinyoka 2014; FRAC 2017).
Furthermore, farmers’ limited income threatens their access to medical care, thus
posing a huge threat to men, women and children. Income stress also impedes chil-
dren’s educational progress, leading to a high rate of school drop-outs and lost poten-
tials. With little income in educating and responding to children’s health needs and
a child’s sex is preferred in individual communities, and this scenario worsens the
gender inequality (Ajala 2017). Dropping out from schools and lack of guidance
exposes the individuals to societal odds, reduces societal dignity, enhances vulnera-
bility and makes them a threat to the progress, peace and security of the communities
(OPHI and UNDP 2019; UNDP 2019). For example, a girl in a rural community who
drops out of school without primary education lacks a basic understanding of herself
and society. She could become vulnerable to early pregnancy, migrate to an urban
area for prostitution, engage into child/early or forced marriage (CEFM) and in turn,
impact her health, worsen her economic status and enhance societal ills (USAID
2015). For a male child, the need for resources to cater to his needs does arise as he
grows older. This could lead to rural–urban migration which adds to the challenges
of meeting the needs of urban residents, thereby exacerbating the urban climate
challenge. In the face of high competition for resources, the resource stressed and
educationally weak people engage in unhealthy societal practices to degrade peace
and security (Mobjork and van Baalen 2016).
2.4 Climate Change, Education in the Tropics, Health

and Risks to Sustainable Development
Rising temperature decreases human educational productivity, degrades human

health and loss of lives. Irrespective of the household’s socioeconomic status, climate
change undermines children’s academic gains in the tropics (Randell and Gray 2019).
Higher temperatures cause an unfavorable learning environment, incomplete course
content and poor examination results (Mbah 2014). In summer, residents continue
to increase the utilization of fans and air conditioners to reduce their surroundings’
temperature and gain a sense of comfort, which further exacerbates the pressure
on unsustainable natural energy. This increasing demand for energy (unsustainable
consumption) is increasing dissipation of heat into the surroundings, thus adding
more CO2 in the atmosphere and worsening the climate challenge. The condition is
worse in urban areas where the temperature values in cities are a few degrees higher
than the surrounding rural areas (Enete 2015; Ojeh et al. 2016). This temperature
discrepancy results from a phenomenon termed urban heat island effect, and it has
been associated with light absorption of surfaces, reducing vegetation with structures
and waste heat. The condition affects air quality in urban environments, increases
the temperature and stresses the native species.
The consequences of climate change-related heat on man include ‘cerebral-spinal
meningitis’, skin cancer, cardiovascular impairments, old age respiratory disorders,
rising blood pressure, heatstroke, hyperthermia, and heat cramps diabetes-related
conditions, morbidity and premature death (Monday 2019; WHO 2018). Further-
more, infants, the elderly, children, pregnant women, athletes, outdoor and manual
workers, and the poor are more vulnerable to climate change-related impacts. Poor
health reduces an individual’s output, increases deprivations, enhances poverty and
undermines national economic development contributions. Nations in the tropics
(developing countries) are worst hit by the climate challenge (CRED and UNISDR
2017). With the existing inequality between these countries and developed nations,
climate change-related heat will worsen the challenge of reducing inequality across
these nations.
2.5 Climate-Well-Being Interconnected Risks—A Threat

Figure 1 summarized the interconnected risks associated with climate change

outlined in the previous sections. The vicious cycle gives a guiding view to widen our
understanding of how the unhealthy rise in global temperature is altering our planet’s
regenerative capacity and the prospects of achieving the sustainable development
goals.
3 Adaptation and Mitigation to Climate Change—Defining

a Safe Corridor for Humanity
Given the global community’s climate challenge, a safe corridor needs to be mapped
to deal with its root causes and to adapt to its associated impacts. It is well convincing
that the consumption of fossil fuels and the subsequent emissions exacerbate the
likelihood of its effects (UNDP 2008). Additionally, considering such adaptation
blueprints become real if the target is to reinforce a rigorous sustainable development
strategy and protect habitats. Mitigation and adaptation strategies cannot be addressed
in isolation. They are not mutually exclusive but are dynamic, and have evolved
(Davies et al. 2013a, b; Rasul and Sharma 2016). At the twentieth century’s expiry,
the objective was to reduce climate risks, impacts, and uncertainties and the scope
was limited to specific locations and sectors. But at the beginning of the twenty-first
century, the approaches were broadened to embrace trans-sector and trans-boundary;
non-climate stressors; reducing climate risk with development-oriented agenda such
as poverty reduction, strengthening the minority rights and protection of vulnerable
groups.
Following the complex interaction of climate-impacts-management options and
human well-being nexus approaches that detect less harmful tradeoffs and yield more
productive synergies in human goals are scaled higher in proffering solutions to the
climate challenge for securing a resilient planet (Liu et al. 2018). Akanwa et al. (2019)
opined on the need for environmental greening and agroforestry in human settlements
as an option for adaptation and mitigation to climate change. While this approach
minimizes the challenges associated with the unhealthy rise in global tempera-
ture, it also strengthens food security and community resilience to climate shocks.
According to ICLEI (2012), mitigation seeks ways to reduce greenhouse gas emis-
sions through lowering energy consumption by strengthening local food production;
improving the efficacy of water and energy delivery; enhancing renewable energy
sources and reducing waste generation. Further, enhancing carbon sequestration by
promoting healthy forest; promoting buildings that regulate weather conditions and
deploying economic strategies can help mitigate the problem. These approaches
should be applied in ways that simultaneously improve communities’ buoyancy to
the reality of changing climate (adaptation) and sustain environmental quality. For
1. Increase pests, invasive species and other stressors, 22. Tangible and intangible losses
decreasing forest productivity 23. Lack of resources to cope with disaster due to
2. Decrease in forest productivity and reducing patriarchy and gender bias
capacity to absorb carbon dioxide. 24. Relocation to safer and unexploited zones
3. Alteration of aquatic chemistry, e.g. through 25. Increase in food prices
acidification, hypoxia 26. Hunger and malnutrition
4. Melting of ice caps 27. Resource pressure due to dwindling resources
5. Organic matter in the soil is decomposed, reducing 28. Violent conflict worsens existing inequality and
soil nutrient poverty
6. Decomposed organic matter in the soil is lost as CO 2 29. Raping, drug abuse, school drop-out
to the atmosphere 30. Reduces partnership and capacity to work together
7. Weakens human health and premature death 31. More women and girls affected than men and boys
8. Unfavorable learning condition and poor 32. Increase dependence on natural resources for
performance survival
9. Utilizing unsustainable energy for fans and air 33. Poor income weakens the ability to meet health
conditioning in order to gain a sense of comfort needs
10. Increase threat of C3 weeds to food production 34. Poor sanitation and pollution of freshwater
11. Exploring new frontiers for agriculture and removal 35. Dwindling vegetation affects local climate
of natural vegetation 36. Local climate and precipitation affect the survival of
12. Recurrent poor health weakens educational output indigenous flora and fauna
13. Dropping out from school, early pregnancy, 37. Dealing on drugs and arms impedes social security
prostitution; child, early and forced marriage 38. Lack of strong institutions to manage price hikes
(CEFM) and peaceful protests
14. A poor harvest and consequently poor income 39. Washing away of fertile soil, crop destruction and
undermine parents and caregivers' ability to train productivity
children and meet other basic needs 40. Warmer air holds more water vapour (a greenhouse
15. Increase dependence on groundwater, especially in gas)
coastal areas leads to soil salinization 41. The negation of women's value impedes
16. Stunted and uneven plant growth contributions to the development
17. Reduce the potential of groundwater recharge 42. Decrease terrestrial vegetation increases flooding
18. Threaten the survival of migratory species, e.g. and siltation
migratory birds 43. Poor educational achievement leads to lost potentials
19. Dwindling vegetation and undermines innovations
20. Decrease precipitation
21. Increase the frequency of precipitation
Fig. 1 A vicious cycle of ‘climate-well-being’ interconnected risks

example, reducing vehicle travel mileage through price hikes of fuel (mitigation)
should be accompanied by adaptation strategies that residents can accommodate
price hikes, such as making goods and services available to them. This assists in
stabilizing or strengthening their disaster coping capacity and reducing vulnerability
to climate risks and poverty.
As there are no specific adaptation strategies (Rasul and Sharma 2016), it is
essential to define the interconnected risks facing communities and develop designs
that accommodate local priorities while integrating global needs. In communities and
cities with recurrent climate change associated floods, it is crucial to understand the
natural vegetation that preceded human settlements because of deploying biomimetic
designs that can coexist with floods, save water, reduce energy consumption and
land use abuse. For example, India is characterized by monsoon flooding and in
proposed city development, city developers design rooftops to mimic the banyan
fig leaf’s drip-tip system that allows water to runoff while simultaneously cleaning
its surface (Gendall 2009). While occupants in such settlements could collect water
in the wet seasons with a lightweight design that mimics the survival of the cactus
plant in a desert environment (Nessim 2016), the excess water could be removed by
mimicking local harvester ants that use multi-path channels to remove water from
their nets (Gendall 2009). The varying survival circumstances of natural systems’
evolution reveal that bio-inspired designs offer sustainable adaptation and mitigation
strategies to the rising temperature (Sudhakaran 2017). These designs are efficient in
resource use and ecosystem sustenance. They utilize just the energy and water they
need, develop mechanisms to thrive in limited resources and recycle its waste.
Again, in seeking the most feasible crop type to cultivate in the face of limited
access to water (drought) associated to climate change, in-depth analysis for several
possible crops will reveal crops with minimum water demand, least ecological foot-
prints and the market value of these crops (Daccache et al. 2014). While the desired
characteristics are not usually associated with a single crop and the market value for
these crops varies in space, appropriate mathematical models, time and investment
will help define the crop with the highest net benefit and reduce vulnerability to
the climate challenge. Liu et al. (2018) posit that biofuel processing requires 500
times more water compared to oil and gas. By this submission, adaptation strategies
that seek to improve biofuel use should consider the high-water demand in biofuel
development and how this water demand is related to regional characteristics, energy
sustenance, food security, and ecological services and human well-being.
It is therefore important to understand where each adaptation and mitigation
strategy fits into the interconnected climate change risks to identify synergies and
tradeoffs in the pursuit of human objectives. The issues to consider in defining a
sustainable adaptation strategy are usually complicated. They require huge invest-
ment and time if planners intend to address a broader scope of interconnected risks
and reduce human suffering. According to United Nations (2019) and World Bank
(2004), every single dollar spent on pre-disaster risk management (majorly for adap-
tation) in developing countries, losings of about six dollars can be averted. The nexus
approach in defining adaptation strategies to climate change is more sustainable than
a sectoral approach. They provide promising tools in charting a safe corridor for
humanity and the diversity of life forms on the planet.
4 Conclusions
The condition of the global temperature is vital for the sustenance of life and the
achievement of human goals. Unfortunately, the pursuit of these goals is altering
the global climate and disrupting the smooth functioning of life processes. These
disruptions degenerate to interconnected risks that add to existing human suffering,
hamper their survival and exacerbate the climate challenge. The risks associated with
our planet’s rising temperature vary in space and time and cannot be addressed in
isolation. It is pertinent to understand how the climate keeps changing, to explore the
most feasible and productive opportunities to reduce the interconnected risks while
considering local priorities and integrate global needs.
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Climate Change and Its Impacts
on Businesses
Vicente Manzione Filho
Abstract Climate change is still an incipient issue, mainly in the scope of invest-
ment and corporate decision-making. Risks and opportunities of climate change
exist and need to be assessed and incorporated into investment analysis in various
economic sectors. Climate change is a global risk, with potential to impact industries
and markets. It depends on the geographic location, business model, company prepa-
ration, technology availability, etc. Following this, several national and local laws
and regulations were instituted in several countries aiming to establish parameters for
reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and adaptation to the effects of climate
change. This requires considerable investments in innovation and new technologies.
In this backdrop, the current chapter delves deep into the understanding of the impact
of climate change on business and other related aspects. Likewise, it evaluates how
technological innovations can mitigate risks or generate opportunities.
Keywords Climate change · Business · Risk · Sustainable economies · Financial

stability · Financial disclosure
He is Founding partner at Origami—Sustainable Business Management Consulting

Ltda (www.gestaoorigami.com.br), with more than 15 years of experience in project
planning and execution. He has the competencies that make up the prerogatives of a
senior consultant in sustainable development, with a view of the materiality of envi-
ronmental, social and governance factors for the organisation’s strategy. He acquired
commercial, managerial, analytical and interpersonal skills demonstrated through
various studies and projects carried out for corporations, local governments, NGOs
and academia. He leads and is part of multidisciplinary and collaborative teams in
complex projects with diverse stakeholders. He has ease of communication with
different audiences and different hierarchical levels. He has completed Bachelor of
Economics from Mackenzie University (2001), Master of Environment and Devel-
opment from the LSE—London School of Economics and Political Science (2003),
specialised in Education for Sustainability at Schumacher College (2008) and in
Business of Oil, Gas and Biofuel at FIA (2009).
V. Manzione Filho (B)

Sustainable Business Management Consulting Ltd a Gestao Origami, São Paulo, Brazil

88 V. M. Filho
1 Context
Considered by several studies as a global megatrend, climate change gained great

emphasis in the international sphere and businesses in 2005 with the entry into force
of the Kyoto Protocol and the carbon market. In 2007, with the publication of the 4th
IPCC report on climate change science, the documentary ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ and
the ‘Stern Report’ on the Economics of Climate Change, the topic gained attention
from the general public policymakers.
Following this movement, national and local laws and regulations were instituted
in several countries aiming to establish parameters for reducing greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions and adaptation to the effects of climate change. This requires
considerable investments in innovation and new technologies.
The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, governs the GHG emission reduction
measures that the signatory countries must pursue from 2020, through the implemen-
tation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). In Brazil, the elaboration
of a National Strategy for the Implementation and Financing of NDC is currently
being discussed. Through the PMR Project, the Economic Policy Secretariat of the
Ministry of Economic assesses the costs and benefits of economic instruments for
carbon pricing in the country.
In the scope of businesses, significant initiatives have taken place in the last five
years. Especially noteworthy are those whose objectives include the inclusion of
the business strategy theme whenever considered material from an economic and
financial perspective.
Examples of these initiatives are the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial
Disclosures (TCFD) and the Technical Bulletin on Climate Risks of the Sustainable
Accounting Standard Board (SASB), which added to the robust CDP climate database
and to signatory investors to the Principles of Responsible Investment (PRI), among
others.
Despite this recent history, climate change is still an incipient issue, mainly in
the scope of investment and corporate decision-making. Risks and opportunities
of climate change exist and need to be assessed and incorporated into investment
analysis in various economic sectors. Likewise, evaluating how technological inno-
vations can mitigate risks or generate opportunities can mean individual businesses’
perpetuity.
As stated by Bloomberg and Pope (2017) in their book ‘Climate of Hope: how
cities, businesses and citizens can save the planet,’ climate change should now be
approached more pragmatically and assertively.
Instead of debating long-term consequences, let’s talk about immediate threats. Instead of
arguing about making sacrifices, let’s talk about how we can make money. Instead of the
environment versus the economy, let’s consider market principles and economic growth.
Instead of focusing on polar bears, let’s focus on children with asthma. Instead of putting all
Climate Change and Its Impacts on Businesses 89
Fig. 1 Climate change causal link. Source author
hope in the federal government, we are going to empower businesses, cities and citizens to
accelerate the progress they already make on their own.1
2 Climate Change
In basic terms, the climate change process begins with people’s actions and ends
impacting them. This is because the activities we carry out emit GHG. As the Planet
cannot absorb all anthropogenic emission, GHG concentrations have been increasing
year by year. Thus, thermal energy from the sun is trapped in the atmosphere, causing
heating. In turn, global warming causes changes in the climate and the environment,
which ultimately affects our livelihoods. Figure 1 illustrates this causal link.
According to Stern (2010), during the period 1995 to 2005, the rate of increase
in the annual carbon dioxide concentration, of 1.9 ppm, was higher than ever. The
annual emissions of carbon dioxide increased from 23.5 Gt CO2 per year in the 1990s
to 26.4 Gt CO2 per year from 2000 to 2005. This increase in CO2 concentration is
considered responsible for the rise of 0.8 °C in the Planet’s temperature compared
to the pre-industrial period.
The IPCC warns that an increase of more than 2 °C in the Planet’s average temper-
ature can cause radical changes in the climate as we know it today. By maintaining
the status quo, forecasts estimate an increase in annual GHG stocks of around 3–
4 ppm, which would raise the concentration levels from the current around 400 ppm
1Bloomberg and Pope (2017) ‘Climate of Hope: how cities, businesses and citizens can save the
planet’.
90 V. M. Filho
Table 1 Probability (%) of temperature increase in relation to GHG concentration levels. (in ppm
CO2 )
Stabilization level
2oC 3oC 4oC 5oC 6oC 7o C
(in ppm CO2)
450 78 18 3 1 0 0
500 96 44 11 3 1 0
550 99 69 24 7 2 1
650 100 94 58 24 9 4
750 100 99 82 47 22 9
Source Stern (2010)
to 580–630 ppm by the middle of this century and between 800 and 900 ppm until the
end of the century. For example, concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere at levels
of 500–550 ppm would result in a 96–99% probability of an increase in temperature
by 2 °C. The table below illustrates these probabilities (Table 1).2
In this sense, the increase in temperature would imply more intense and frequent
extreme weather events, with significant risks of high magnitude and impacts on
people, physical assets and even the location of production in several industries.
Thus, reducing GHG emissions is critical.
3 Climate Change Risks, Opportunities, and Impacts
Climate change is a global risk, with potential to impact industries and markets.
According to the latest report by the World Economic Forum,3 ‘2020 Global Risk
Outlook’, aspects related to climate events are of high probability and high impact.
Extreme weather events, natural disasters, failure to mitigate/adapt to climate change
and water crises are among the top global risks identified, are some examples of
hazards.
According to SASB,4 climate risks can manifest as follows:
• Specific risk -> affects only a particular industry or company. It depends on
the geographic location, business model, company preparation, technology avail-
ability, etc. It is necessary to understand the magnitude, probability and timing of
each industry’s risks.
• Systematic risk -> is the uncertainty inherent in the entire market and, therefore,
not diversifiable. For example, climate risks will continue to affect the global
2 Stern (2010).
3 https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2020.
4 SASB—Sustainable Accounting Standard Board (2016). Climate Risk. Technical Bulletin
#TB001-10,182,016.
price of energy, agricultural productivity, migration, etc. The impact varies from
industry to industry, but almost none is immune.
• Systemic risk -> can lead to the collapse of an entire market or the financial
system as a whole.
Investors and the Board of Directors need to understand these different types of
risks. They influence the ability to diversify risks, conduct appropriate investment
financial analysis and manage the risks. But where can investors and company’s
management get reliable information about climate change?
3.1 Main Sources of Information: The Materiality of Climate

Change
There are three primary global sources of public information regarding climate
change and its potential impacts on businesses:
• Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosure (TCFD): In December
2015, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) established this initiative to develop a
standard for disclosing information on climate change that can promote more
informed investments and, in turn, enable stakeholders to understand their
exposures to carbon concentrations and climate-related risks.
• Sustainable Accounting Standard Board (SASB): it is the Independent organ-
isation based in the USA dedicated to setting standards to improve the capital
market’s efficiency, promoting the disclosure of material sustainability infor-
mation that meets investors’ needs. The mission will help public companies to
disclose relevant information to investors in SEC documents, such as Forms 10-
K, 20-F and 40-F, in a cost-effective and useful manner for the decision. SASB
maintains standards for 79 industries, focusing on sustainability factors that are
reasonably likely to have material financial impacts.
• CDP—Driving Sustainable Economies: CDP is a non-profit institution, based
in London, which manages the global disclosure system for investors, companies,
cities, states and regions to manage its environmental impacts. Over the past
15 years, it has created a system that has resulted in a consistent engagement of
companies and cities on environmental issues worldwide.
The information in these organisations’ publications and databases is a valuable
introduction resource for understanding the connections between climate change and
companies in several sectors.
92 V. M. Filho
Fig. 2 TCFD Framework. Source TCFD (2017)
3.2 Defining What is Material
For SASB (2013),5 “each company is ultimately responsible for determining which
information is relevant and which data should be included in the mandatory and
periodic form sent to the SEC—Security and Exchange Commission. In identifying
sustainability topics that are likely to be material for companies in a specific industry,
SASB follows the definition of materiality adopted by US law and jurisprudence.
According to the US Supreme Court, the information is material if there is ‘a substan-
tial probability that the reasonable investor would have seen the disclosure of the
omitted fact as having significantly altered the ‘total mix’ of the information made
available”.
Consequently, it identifies that the relevant environmental and social issues are
likely to impact a company’s financial condition or operating performance and,
therefore, are more critical to investors.
Bringing this concept to the climate change domains means identifying which
kind of risk/opportunities companies are exposed to. In that sense, there has been
significant evolution over the last few years, especially regarding the harmonisation
of concepts. For instance, through its guide6 ‘Implementing the Recommendations of
the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures’ TCFD has set the categories
of risks and opportunities and its potential impact on value (Fig. 2).
Although climate risks exist and have gained repercussions within organisations,
an understanding of the relationship between climate change and its potential finan-
cial impact is still incipient. Thus, it is paramount for companies to understand, assess
and prioritise which climate change risk is material for them to address strategically.
5 SASB (2013).
6 TCFD (2017).
3.3 Impact of Climate Change on the Processed Food Sector

Value Chain
Understanding how each sector is exposed to climate change risks and opportunities
is the first step towards setting a climate change strategy. In this sense, it is presented
below a case study of applying a methodology to prioritise climate change material
risk in a Brazilian processed food company. The analysis considers the following
value chain parts: agriculture, ports, fabric and distribution.
Agriculture7
Climate change has created challenges for the agriculture sector—and will continue
to do so. It induces increases in temperature, rainfall variation, and extreme weather
events’ frequency and intensity, hence increasing pressures on global agricultural and
food systems. The crops we grow for food, fibre and energy need specific conditions
to thrive, including the ideal temperature and sufficient water. To some extent, warmer
temperatures can benefit certain crops’ growth in some parts of the world.
However, if temperatures exceed the ideal level of a crop or sufficient water and
nutrients are not available, yields tend to fall. An increase in the frequency of extreme
events, especially floods and droughts, also harms crops and reduces yield. Climate
change will change the conditions for agriculture. This can lead to differences in
comparative advantage between regions and consequently to changes in agricultural
trade.
Evidence from OECD studies indicates that wheat-producing regions such as
Canada, the USA and Argentina can benefit from rising temperatures. On the other
hand, concerning palm oil, areas of Malaysia and Indonesia are already severely
impacted by the effects of extreme weather events. In contrast, soy production in
mid-west Brazil may be adversely affected by increased temperature.
Besides, in general, agriculture is also a significant emitter of greenhouse gases,
especially N2 O, although there are no regulatory moves to mitigate GHG emis-
sions. On the contrary, we see voluntary initiatives such as the Federal Govern-
ment’s ABC—Low Carbon Agriculture Programme and the WBCSD Climate Smart
Agriculture initiative.
Ports8
Climate change can aggravate or trigger coastal erosion and flooding phenomena
through environmental forces such as waves, winds, currents and tides, affecting the
safety of the population and economic activities in coastal areas. Some points in
Brazil are considered to have a high degree of flooding near Fortaleza, João Pessoa,
Recife and Aracajú due to the high population density. Hangovers on the coast of
7 OECD (2019).
FAO (2016).
8SMC Brasil Project. A Proposed approach for the establishment of probabilistic regime of Brazilian
coastal flooding area thematic document. Brasilia, DF MMA 2018.
94 V. M. Filho
Ceará can cause coastal flooding. The hangovers that reach this region are associated
with extratropical hurricanes in the northern hemisphere, causing storms that result
in the arrival of waves on the northeast coast of Brazil.
The combination of higher average altitudes and low population density gives the
Bahian coast a low risk to the natural coastal flooding process. However, in places
associated with river outlets with a high population density, such as in the cities
of Salvador, this risk becomes elevated. In the Guanabara Bay area, all drainage
networks from the Serra do Mar converge. This factor, together with the high popu-
lation density, in situations of tides associated with the passage of frontal systems
and accompanied by high precipitation, makes the area exposed to flooding.
From the southern portion of Baixada Santista to Itajaí region, the degree of risk
to flooding reached medium to high values, due to the combination of three crucial
ports, relatively high population densities and the socio-economic importance of
these centres.
Fabric9
High energy dependence on operating large industrial units for use in stages such
as heating/cooking, cooling, packaging and transporting. Energy production and
consumption contribute to climate change due to GHG emissions and can poten-
tially impact the results of the operations of processed food companies indirectly but
materially. Most of the sector’s direct Scope 1 emissions refer to natural gas burning
to generate heat and electricity with a low impact level.
Industry spending on fuel and electricity represents about 1.07 and 1.80% of the
total cost, respectively (2.87% of energy expenditure). Due to relatively high energy
dependence, companies recognise the risk of rising prices and restricted supply as
material concerns in their 10-K Forms—a significant opportunity for companies to
implement projects to improve energy efficiency and generate cost savings.
Water management is an increasingly material issue for companies in the sector,
as large quantities of water are needed in the production process. As the global
population is expected to grow to 9.2 billion by 2050, water demand will increase.
Simultaneously, increased pollution and climate change will create significant opera-
tional risks for processed food companies, especially those operating in water scarcity
regions. Companies in the sector have started to implement programmes to reduce
water consumption in direct operations.
In addition to the cost-efficiency of limiting water consumption, companies recog-
nise the need to understand water scarcity risks in all their operations. Companies
operating in regions with water scarcity can implement water efficiency initiatives
to reduce the risks of scarcity and increases in water prices in these regions.
Distribution10
The road transport sector faces risks and opportunities related to its environmental
impacts, mainly due to the expansion of climate regulations. The regulatory costs
9 SASB. Industry Brief Processed Food. June 2015.

10 SASB. Industry Brief Road Transportation. September 2014.
associated with GHG emissions and air pollutants are threatening the industry’s profit
margins. However, optimising fuel management through technological innovation
offers an opportunity to reduce operating costs.
Also, the positive public perception resulting from GHG emissions’ effective
management can improve the brand’s reputation and value. In their 10-K Form,
truck companies recognise the risk to revenue for environmentally conscious
customers, diverting business to more fuel-efficient competitors. Failure to comply
with customers ‘sustainability requirements could have a significant adverse effect
on the results of companies’ operations and could lead to a substantial deterioration
in market share.
As the externalities of climate change continue to worsen and road transport
increasingly becomes the focus of regulations to limit emissions, the likelihood and
magnitude of these impacts will likely increase in the short and medium-term. The
extent of these impacts can be estimated using companies’ Scope 1 emissions, in
absolute terms and relative to their peers, considering the mitigation efforts reflected
in concrete emissions reduction targets. It can also be assessed through the carriers’
fleets’ energy efficiency and energy mix (renewable energies).
Using the information above and the TCFD and SASB information, Table 2
summarises the evidence of the impacts of climate change risks on the processed
Table 2 Summary of evidence on the impacts of climate change on the food sector value chain
IMPACT ON VALUE CHAIN POTENCIAL FINANCIAL IMPACTS
AGR FINANCI
CATEGORIES ICU PORT FABR DISTRIBU INCO EXPENDITUR ASSET:C LIABBI G
LTU S IC TION ME ES:OPEX APEX LITIES DEBT/E
RE QUIT
PHYSICAL RISKS
Acute (Punctual, unpredictable)
More intense droughts
More intense rainfall / floods
Higher wind speed
Chronic (progressive, predictable)
Changes in precipitation patterns
Extreme variability in weather patterns
Increased average temperatures
Rising sea level
TRANSITION RISKS
Public Policies, Legal
Greater obligations for reporting emissions
Regulation on emissions, licenses
Carbon tax
Fuel / energy taxes and regulations
Marketplace
RISKS
Rising raw material costs

Change geographic location of supply
Resource efficiency
OPPORTUNITIES
Use of more efficient modes of transport

Reduction in the use and consumption of
water and energy
Energy sources
Use of lower emission energy sources
Use of public policy incentives
Decentralised power generation
Resilience
Renewable energy and energy efficiency
programs
Source author, adapted from TCFD, SASB and CDP

96 V. M. Filho
food sector value chain and their potential financial impacts. Most risks if materi-
alised would affect expenditures with agriculture and fabric being more impacted.
The most critical risk category is more intense rainfall/floods that would jeopardise
all value chain.
Figure 3 depth the analysis considering the evidence of material impacts of climate
change on a Brazilian food company. If materialised, chronic and acute physical risks
would result in inability to produce and supply interruption, an increase in operating
costs/expenses, more capital expenditures, and damage to property, machinery, and
equipment.
As companies increase their understanding of how climate change affects oper-
ations and finance and considering the scarcity of financial and human resources,
there is an increasing need to prioritise which risks are material for business.
4 Prioritising Climate Climate Change and Opportunities
With the understanding of the sector climate change potential implications, what
companies need to assess are the risks or opportunities that most threaten their ability
to value generation/protection.
4.1 Methodology
The methodology11 described below allows companies to prioritise climate change

risks and opportunities according to the company’s materiality. The process has been
applied to some companies in the Brazilian market. Figure 4 exemplifies the six steps
to the methodology application.
The 6 Steps methodology
1. Identification of which categories of risks and opportunities suggested by the
TCFD applies to the processed food sector: Physical Risks (Acute, punc-
tual and unpredictable/Chronic, progressive and predictable); Transition Risks
(Public Policies, Legal/Market); Opportunities (Resource Efficiency/Energy
Sources/Resilience).
2. The links in the value chain considered were (A) Agriculture; (P) Ports);
(I) Industry (Fabric); (D) Distribution. The TCFD report ‘Implementing the
recommendations of the TCFD, June 2017’ and ‘SASB Industry Briefs’
11Gestão Origami’s proprietary methodology. I am thankful to Bruno Vio my partner at Gestao

Origami and Fabio Crotti an independent financial consultant and friend. There were insightfull
conversations and great technical imputs to the development of the methodology.
Evidence of negative and Aggravates or triggers High dependence on High dependence on
positive impacts - depends coastal erosion and flooding energy and fuels and a lot emission-intensive
on culture and region of water in the production road transport
process.
Risks and Opportunities

Impacts on value
Operational Financial Property

Climate Change and Its Impacts on Businesses
Physical risks Inability to produce Increase in operating costs/expenses Damage to property,

(acute, chronic) Supply interruption Capital expenditures machinery, and equipment)
Transition risks
Increase in operating costs/expenses
(public policy,
Restriction on access to capital
legal, market)
Opportunities
(resource Reduction of operating costs/expenses
efficiency, energy CAPEX
sources) Access to financing
Fig. 3 Summary of evidence on the material impacts of climate change on a Brazilian food company value chain. Source author, adapted from TCFD, SASB
and CDP
97
98 V. M. Filho
Evidence of Interest Sector Financial Evidence 1 1 1

Food Sector Value past occurence/
SASB materilaity CDP
future trends Probability Final
Categories of risks and chain
EI* FE* CDP EI* EF* Probability Score
link Cost of
opportunities identified Yes/No Score* Rating Results Rating Magnitude
Capital
More intense droughts A, I Sim 20 Alto Muito Alto alto alto Alto Alto oA Alto Provavel 5 4 4 80
More intense rainfall/floods A, I Sim 20 Alto Muito Alto Nao Material Alto te Alto Provavel 5 4 4 80
Fig. 4 Example of the methodology application. Source author
‘Processed Food’, ‘Agricultural Products’ and ‘Land Transport’ were consid-

ered as primary references. The focus of the analysis was on issues related to
GHG emissions, energy and water.
3. To define whether the category of R|O12 is applicable, to characterised the
profile of the value chain looking for evidence-based on secondary research
about the occurrence or strong trends of R|O to materialise. The objective was
to filter and direct the search for Evidence of Interest (EI):
4. .Occurrences in the sector, in the business and/or in the locations where units
are installed over the last 5 years (Yes/No)
5. .The materiality of the category of R|O as presented in the ‘SASB Industry
Briefs’ (High/Medium/Low/Null) + Ruler below
6. No, 1 -> R | O is generic for companies in the food sector; there is no past
evidence of material impacts directly on the company;
7. Yes, 2–5 -> R|O has already impacted/may impact the company indi-
rectly through the value chain (agriculture, ports, distribution); the finan-
cial/operational impact tends to be low-medium;
8. Yes, 6–9 -> R|O has already impacted/may impact the company indi-
rectly through the value chain (agriculture, ports, distribution); the finan-
cial/operational impact tends to be medium–high;
9. Yes, 10–13 -> R | O has already impacted/may impact the company directly;
the financial/operational impact tends to be low-medium;
10. Yes, 14–17 -> R | O has already impacted/may impact the company directly;
the financial/operational impact tends to be medium–high;
11. Yes, 18–20 -> R | O has already impacted/may impact the company directly
and indirectly; the financial/operational impact tends to be high.
12. The combination of the possibilities between ‘i’ and ‘ii’ (Very High, High,
Medium, Low, Very Low) allowed EI to be defined and selected from the R|O
applicable to each invested sector/company.
13. In addition to the EI, an attempt was made to identify, the Financial Evidence
(FI):
i. Occurrence: Through the ‘SASB Industry Brief’, FI was identified in
the Results, Balance Sheet and Capital Cost, being classified as High,
Medium, Low or Nil;
ii. Magnitude: Based on the responses of 540 companies in the food sector to
the CDP Programmes Climate Change Supply Chain Global (2016) and
Climate Change Latin America (2017), answers to questions about risks
12 R: Risk | O: Opportunity.
and opportunities were analysed. The focus was to assess the potential
financial impact (Very High, High, Medium, Low, Very Low, Unknown,
Nil). This is an essential source of practical information for defining the
materiality of the R|O.
iii. The combination of the possibilities between ‘i’ and ‘ii’ (Very High,
High, Medium, Low, Very Low) allowed to define the EFI of the R|O.
14. The probability was also extracted from the CDP database as per item 4
above and classified as follows: Very Likely, Probable, Neutral, Unlikely, Very
Unlikely, Unknown and Nil.
15. For the final score, the scores were weighted: EI x EF x Probability. In this
step, weight equal to 1 was considered for the three variables. A maximum
score equal to 100.
4.2 Climate Change Impacts on Businesses: Material Risks

and Opportunities
Table 3 shows the outcome of the methodology application. The main risks related
to physical aspects of climate change are high in magnitude and likely to materialise
and are connected to agriculture and industry. The main transition risk is increasing
raw material costs (water and energy) while the foremost opportunity is renewable
energy and energy efficiency programmes.
It is worthy to note that none risk/opportunity reached the maximum score allowed
by methodology: 100. It means that climate change risks have fewer impacts on the
food sector than in other sectors of the economy.
For instance, the methodology has also been applied to other sectors, and the
results are shown in Table 4. As can be seen, industries with high GHG emission
intensity are more likely to suffer climate change transition risks.
5 Conclusion
With this kind of information, companies have a rational to build their climate change
knowledge and focus on managing the most critical risk. Key information to be used
in such analysis include but are not limited to:
• Legislation and climate litigation around the world;
• Emissions trading and taxation regimes, including carbon prices;
• Sources of financing for mitigation and adaptation;
• Regulatory renewable energy incentive regimes in various countries;
• Energy and fuel prices;
• Databases on natural disasters;
• Water stress regions;
100 V. M. Filho
Table 3 Summary of evidence on the impacts of climate change on the food sector value chain
Value
Risk/Opportunity Magnitude Probability Score
chain
Risk More intense droughts A, I High Likely 80
More intense
Risk A, I High Likely 80
rainfall/floods
Rising raw material costs A, I,
Risk Medium Likely 60
(water and energy) D
Renewable energy and
Opportunity energy efficiency I, D Medium Likely 60
programs
Changes in
Risk precipitation/temperature A High Likely 48
patterns
Increased average
Risk A High Likely 48
temperatures
Greater obligations for
Risk I Low Very Likely 40
reporting emissions
Risk Higher wind speed I Low Likely 32
Risk Rising sea level P Low Likely 24
Reduction in the use and
Opportunity consumption of water I Unknown Unknown 16
and energy
Use of more efficient
Opportunity D Unknown Unknown 12
modes of transport
Use of more efficient
Opportunity modes of production and I, D Unknown Unknown 12
distribution
Carbon tax/emissions
Risk I Low Likely 8
trading schemes
Change geographic
Risk A Unknown Unlikely 8
location - supplies
Emissions regulation,
Risk I Very low Likely 4
reduction targets
Use of lower-emission
Opportunity I, D Unknown Unknown 3
energy sources
Decentralised power
Opportunity I Unknown Unknown 3
generation
Use of public policy
Opportunity I Unknown Unknown 1
incentives
Source author
Table 4 Risks and opportunities in some sectors other than food

Risk/Opportunity Sector Magnitude Probability Score
Emissions Trading
Risk Cement High Very Likely 100
Schemes
Emissions Trading Mining
Risk Very high Very Likely 100
Schemes & Metals
Rising raw material Mining
Risk Very high Very Likely 100
costs (energy) & Metals
Emissions Trading
Risk Steel Very high Very Likely 100
Schemes
Rising raw material
Risk Steel High Very Likely 100
costs (energy)
Rising raw material Pulp &
Risk High Very Likely 100
costs (water) Paper
Use of lower-emission
Opportunity All High Very Likely 100
energy sources
Source author
• Charges for water use and prices of water withdrawal.

Data of this nature are variables that can affect the feasibility analysis of a project
and, therefore, should be considered in any investment decision-making process.
References
Bloomberg M, Pope C (2017) ‘Climate of hope: how cities, businesses and citizens can save the
planet’
FAO (2016) The state of food and agriculture climate change: climate change, agriculture and food
security. Rome. http://www.fao.org/3/a-i6030e.pdf
OECD (2019) Innovation, productivity and sustainability in food and agriculture: main findings
from country reviews and policy lessons, OECD food and agricultural reviews. OECD Publishing,
Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/c9c4ec1d-en
Stern NH (2010) O caminho para um mundo mais sustentável: os efeitos da mudança climática e a
criação de uma era de progresso e prosperidade. Elsevier, Rio de Janeiro
SASB (2013) Conceptual framework of the sustainability accounting standard board. https://www.
sasb.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/SASB-Conceptual-Framework.pdf
TCFD (2017) Implementing the recommendations of the task force on cimate related financial
sisclosures. https://assets.bbhub.io/company/sites/60/2020/10/FINAL-TCFD-Annex-Amended-
121517.pdf
Climate Change Hastening Heatwaves:
A Pakistan Scenario
Muhammad Mahroz Hussain, Abdul Qadeer, Zia Ur Rahman Farooqi,
and Muhammad Ashir Hameed
Abstract Heatwaves originate when air is trapped in a specific area for a longer
time, causing an increase in temperature, having harmful impacts on the environment
and human health. The main reason for this phenomenan involves high-pressure air
circulation systems that prevent the near ground air to rise. It traps warm ground air
in place and results in no rain. In modern times, heatwave events are arising three
times more often than they did earlier in the 1960s. Scientists claim that 80% of
heatwaves are due to anthropogenic activities. In addition to the heated air, elevated
humidity also causes a rise in heat wave incidents. This intensely heated air is the
deadliest form of extreme weather events, causing more deaths than any other climate
disaster. These heatwaves cause health illness and even deaths of young children, the
elderly, livestock, and wild animals. This chapter analyzes the sources and effects
of climate-driven heatwaves with special emphasis on Pakistan’s situation. Also, we
have elucidated the heatwave impacts on human health. A correlation is also estab-
lished to identify the possible interaction between urbanization and the increasing
intensity of heatwaves.
Keywords Climate change · Heatwaves · Environmental Impacts · Extreme

weather events · Human health
1 Introduction
The urbanization trend has now continued for decades (UNFPA 2007), with above
50% of the population (around 3.5 billion people worldwide) living in urban
areas (o’Brien et al. 2004). The effects of urbanization include natural disasters and
the vulnerability of social ecosystems which are consequently changing enormously.
At local or regional level, the natural resource depletion and ecosystem destruction
that occur due to urbanization caused changes in the surrounding terrestrial and
aquatic ecosystems (Alberti 2005). Anthropogenic factors like the destruction of
M. M. Hussain (B) · A. Qadeer · Z. U. R. Farooqi · M. A. Hameed

Institute of Soil and Environmental Sciences, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38040,
Pakistan
104 M. M. Hussain et al.
forests and, occupation of alluvial land cause the ecosystem losses, for example, the
destruction of urban soil results in decreased water permeability, thereby increasing
flood potentials.
Climate change impacts are growing day by day, demanding serious consideration
and promotion of these activities necessary to understand its adaptation strategies
(Perkins et al. 2018).
2 Ecosystem Services to Urban Areas
A relatively small and narrow geographic area comprising buildings, a set of modern
infrastructure, and other structures is termed an urban area (Kreimer et al. 2003).
Different countries define urban areas differently, but the current studies define a city
as a permanent settlement. However, it is not (Yearbook 2007) easy to define urban
areas concerning multidisciplinary perspective (Pelling 2003).
A city is understood as one complete ecosystem made up of various small artifi-
cial ecosystems (including lawns, parks, street trees, ponds, forests, lakes, streams,
farmlands, wetlands) and natural ecosystems (Bolund 1999) rendering the essential
services like carbon sequestration, climate regulation, water regulation, and air purifi-
cation (Kallis 2008). Runoff reduction, lowering the temperature, mitigating floods
and heatwaves, increasing ventilation, and enhancing water storage are the bene-
fits of these urban green spaces (Ward et al. 2016). As for millennium ecosystem
assessment (Fitter et al. 2010), they provide the following most important services
(Ecosystems 2005):
i. Cultural and entertainment services,
ii. Soil degradation regulation,
iii. Support services for nutrients cycling and soil formation,
iv. Regulatory services for droughts and floods,
v. Water regulation, and
vi. Food provisions.
3 Climate Changes Scenario in Pakistan: Relations

with the Global Context
Currently, the whole world is facing the effects of climate change while case scenario
of developing countries is relatively more severe (Rahman and Lateh 2017; Shahvari
et al. 2019). The insufficient institutional capacity, abuse and lack of resources, lack
of knowledge and awareness for policy-making and their low economy are the main
reasons for these severe impacts (Wahid et al. 2019). The world has already observed
the El-Nino and La-Nina phenomenas in its ecosystems and hydrological reserves.
From 1895 to 1995, the temperature rose by 0.4 °C (Meehl and Tebaldi 2004; Rauf
et al. 2017).
Climate Change Hastening Heatwaves: A Pakistan Scenario 105
Due to the depletion of hydrological resources, it is expected that Pakistan will

also be exposed to climate change and its effects (Chaudhry et al. 2009) in a more
severe way. The temperature in Pakistan will rise from 0.9 °C in 2020 to 1.5 °C in
2050. During 1998–2004, Pakistan faced the worst drought in history (Hussain and
Mumtaz 2014). Around 84% population and 76% deaths in Baluchistan province
occurred due to heatwaves (Ullah et al. 2018), and it is predicted that this condi-
tion of high temperatures, droughts, pests, diseases, health problems, and lifestyles
will persist for many years to come (Hussain et al. 2018). Climate change will have
harmful effects worldwide in terms of frequent famines, rising temperature, changed
precipitation patterns (Sohoulande Djebou and Singh 2016), and agricultural destruc-
tion (Rosenzweig et al. 2014). Pakistan too will be facing the devastating impacts of
climate change exacerbated by its low per capita income and, inadequate capacity
building facilities (Bhatti et al. 2018).
Pakistan’s economy is agriculture-based, but it still does not have sufficient infras-
tructure to adapt and mitigate the effects of climate change (Khan et al. 2016). It is
among the top vulnerable countries facing severe impacts of climate change due to
its water resource dependency for agriculture (Bhatti et al. 2018; Malik et al. 2012).
Furthermore, all regions are not equally affected by climate change (Malik et al.
2012). It is incredibly worrying as climate change will have more severe effects on
poor farmers (Ali and Erenstein 2017). The 2010–2011 floods showed that farmers
in rural areas are more vulnerable to climate-driven natural disasters (Gorst et al.
2018). Therefore, climate change significantly impacts the economy and livelihood
in rural areas (Mukwada and Manatsa 2018).
Although Pakistan’s contribution to global GHG emissions is insignificant, it is
among the countries facing its adverse impacts (Baloch and Suad 2018). In 2012–
2014 alone, more than 1 million people were affected by floods, which threw them
into chaos. Since 2015, the number fell below a million, as efforts were made contin-
uously by individuals, nonprofit organizations, and other environmentalists to curb
and adapt to climate change (Salamanca et al. 2017).
4 Heatwaves
The term heatwave refers to various weather conditions from moderate to severe.
In the event of a disaster or emergency, heatwaves can affect certain aspects of
overwhelming public services. Heatwaves are a natural hazard that occur due to
climate change driven events. Extreme temperature events can have significant health
effects by posing challenges to public health and civil protection services. Besides,
one greatest effect of human-made climate change in the future will be an increase in
heat waves that will become more intense with time (Change 2007). As the heatwaves
topic has become a rapidly growing field of epidemiological research, most countries/
regions of western Europe have taken some public health measures against them.
While we know more about who is most prone to heatwaves, there is little evidence
of preventing heat-related deaths most effectively.
4.1 Heatwaves and the Human Body
Healthy adults have an effective calorie regulation mechanism that can cope with
the rise in temperature up to a certain threshold through vasodilation and sweat
evaporation (Kilbourne 1992). Experimental data has been used to describe various
thermal indices (Quayle and Doehring 1981), and to set critical occupational and
other standards to limit heat exposure and associated health effects (Parsons 2014).
Although extensive research has been done on the physiological effects of heatwaves,
still, there is a lack of evidence of heat tolerance in women, the elderly, and people
with chronic illnesses. High temperatures can cause clinical symptoms such as heat
strokes, syncope, and convulsions (Noji 1997). Severe heatstrokes can occur when
the body temperature exceeds 103 °F and causes multiple organ failure. The death rate
from heatstroke is very high, and it progresses very quickly (within a few hours). In
survivors, permanent damage to the organ system (Dixit et al. 1997) can lead to severe
dysfunction (Dematte et al. 1998) and increase early death risk. In August 2003, the
French heatwave caused 14,802 deaths within 20 days (Hemon and Jougla 2004),
while a major Athens heatwave in 1987 caused more than 2,000 deaths (Katsouyanni
et al. 1988). Other heat waves that have been extensively studied include several heat
waves in the American.
Midwest, notably the Chicago incident in 1995 (Klinenberg 2015). Unfortunately,
until recently, Europe or the US had not established best practice guidelines.
Major heatwave events are also linked to other health risks, such as air pollution
incidents, forest fires, and water and electricity disruptions, affecting health policies.
The excessive death rate caused by the heatwave event is a short-term increase in
the number of deaths, and the maximum death rate is similar to a severe pollution
event (Jankowski et al. 2006). Therefore, the estimated number of casualties depends
on the definition of high-temperature episodes (Fig. 1) (Pan et al. 2016). It has been
found that the overall impact of a heatwave event depends on many factors, including
the size of the heatwave, time of year, population experience with the heatwave event,
and public health responses (Koppe and Jendritzky 2005). Most heatwave studies
consider the impact on mortality, as daily mortality data is usually readily available
in high-income countries. Heatwaves are also related to the increase in the number of
emergency rooms in hospitals (Johnson et al. 2005; Kovats et al. 2004; Semenza et al.
1999). During the heatwave of August 2003, the number of hospital stays increased in
Spain (Cajoto 2005) and France which also overburdened many hospitals (Lecomte
and de Penanster 2004; Vanhems et al. 2003). The increase in fever-related hospital
emergency admissions was at a specific endpoint, particularly noticeable in kidney
and respiratory diseases, especially in the elderly (Kovats et al. 2004).
Higher temperatures are not associated with cardiovascular diseases (Kovats et al.
2004; Panagiotakos et al. 2004) although they have significant effects in the USA
(Schwartz et al. 2004). Health system factors such as the admission threshold can
explain this difference. Research so far shows that the increase in hospital admis-
sions during the heatwave is not as substantial as the mortality data. One of the
reasons may be that the person who died in the heatwave died suddenly or did not
Fig. 1 Extreme impacts of heatwaves (heat stress and strokes) on the human body
attract medical services’ attention. The latter assumption has implications for health
protection measures.
4.2 Heatwaves as a Hazard
Ecosystems, human mortality and morbidity, and regional economies are signifi-
cantly affected by the extremely high temperatures associated with heatwaves (Koppe
et al. 2004; Meehl and Tebaldi 2004). Over the past decade, heatwaves have become
a severe threat for human deaths in Europe (EEA 2010). European heatwave caused
excessive (70,000) deaths in summer, 2003 (EEA 2010), and France alone faced
15,000 deaths by these heatwaves (Siebielec et al. 2016). Soil moisture was lost
rapidly in spring 2003 due to insufficient rainfall (Ciais et al. 2005; Zaitchik et al.
2006; Fischer et al. 2007) was the hottest season in Europe, since 1500 (Luter-
bacher et al. 2004). In the warm climate of the future, the heat waves appear to be
more frequent, long-lasting, and more intense (Meehl and Tebaldi 2004; Luber and
McGeehin 2008).
5 Urbanization and Heatwaves Aggravating Factor: Urban

Heat Islands
Urban communities and other ecosystems are vulnerable to the increased impacts of
heatwaves. Urban development change a country’s surface and create a unique urban
climate (Grimmond et al. 2004) that increases the heat storage capacity by trans-
forming the ecosystems into buildings and other infrastructure (Luber and McGeehin
2008). The accumulated and impervious surface is another powerful absorber of heat
in the urban areas (Leuzinger et al. 2005). From these areas the radiations are slowly
re-emitted in the form of long-wave radiation, which leads to the warming of the
boundary layer of the urban canopy atmosphere (Oke 1988) known as urban heat
island effect (Joehnk et al. 2008). This effect is related to the temperature differ-
ence between the city and the surrounding rural areas. A large number of buildings
and population causes the increase in temperature difference of urban heat island
drops in Europe (Koppe et al. 2004). The high urban temperature may cause many
fatalities and morbidities (Clarke 1972). A relationship between the microclimate,
demographics of urban residential areas in Phoenix, Arizona, studied by Harlan et al.
(2006), observed that the thermal environment regulates the microclimates and other
climatic conditions that humans have to deal with. Facts have shown that commu-
nities with open cooling functions have almost no open and green spaces, which
helps increase the impact of urban heating (Parmesan et al. 2000). Hence, demo-
graphic characteristics, community environmental quality, and heatwave mortality
are spatially related (Harlan et al. 2006).
6 Climate Regulation
The city temperature that is usually higher than the ambient temperature, results in
a more significant impact of extremely high-temperature events. Urban ecosystems
help reduce the effects of urban heat island (Bolund 1999), e.g., urban forest repre-
senting all vegetation in urban areas (McPherson et al. 1994) playing a significant role
in regulating the climate, energy, and water between soil and atmosphere (Zaitchik
et al. 2006). Researchers believe that greening can cool the environment at the local
level (Oke et al. 1989; Akbari et al. 2001; Bowler et al. 2010) and can mitigate the
effects of heatwaves. This is because plants and trees regulate the temperature through
evapotranspiration. Further, green vegetation absorbs up to 90% of the photosynthetic
radiation while, reflects almost 50% of the radiation in the near-infrared (Braun and
Herold 2004) thus absorbs less heat than the built infrastructure (Leblanc et al. 1997).
While it is not clear whether there is a minimum size threshold or whether there is
a simple linear relationship between these two factors, the size of the green space
affects the size of the cooling effect. On an average, the cooling rate of city parks
is around 1 °C, instead of an independent green location (Bowler et al. 2010), e.g.,
Gomez et al. (1998) observed that in the green area, the maximum temperature in
the Spanish city of Valencia fell by 2.5 °C. Wong and Yu (2005) observed that the
most considerable difference in the planting area between Singapore and the central
business district was 4 °C, while Hamada and Ohta (2010) showed that the tempera-
ture difference between the city and the green spaces from Nagoya in Japan is great.
At the highest temperature, the difference between deciduous and mixed forests is
greater than that of coniferous forests. Conversely, coniferous forests’ difference is

greater at the lowest temperature (Renaud and Rebetez 2009).
Alexandri and Jones (2008) suggest that for cooling purposes it is effective to
place vegetation in urban structures’ architectural space (Shashua-Bar and Hoffman
2003) and the cooling effect is mainly determined by the number and degree of
partially shaded areas. In Athens, for example, the highest cooling effect during the
brief hot weather in 2007 was 2.2 degrees Celsius on streets with higher shadows
and little traffic (Tsiros 2010). Akbari et al. (2001) estimated that implementing heat
island mitigation measures (e.g., tree planting) could avoid 20% of cooling needs
in the US. In general, frequent use of green spaces promotes people’s well-being,
especially during heatwaves (Rebetez et al. 2006). This can be explained by green
spaces’ ability to provide better thermal comfort (Lafortezza et al. 2009).
7 Air Quality Regulation
Air quality plays a vital role in heatwaves and can cause diseases in people through
these dangerous events. These circumstances create great heat and air contamination
pressures, particularly in individuals with cardiovascular and respiratory diseases
(Piver et al. 1999). For example, in the Netherlands, an estimated 1,000 to 1,400
people died in the 2003 summer from high temperatures, concentrations of ozone
(O3 ), and particulate matter (PM10 ) (Fischer et al. 2004). In France, the relative
contribution of O3 and temperature to the high death rate during the 2003 heatwave
was heterogeneous between cities (Siebielec et al. 2016). For the nine cities consid-
ered in the study, every increase in O3 concentration of 10 µg m−3 increased the
death risk (Siebielec et al. 2016).
Specifically, during 2003, the additional risk of death due to O3 and thermometers
was between 10.6% in Le Havre and 174.7% in Paris (Filleul et al. 2006; Siebielec
et al. 2016). In Croatia, a large part of the excessively high mortality rate over the same
period was attributed to PM10 and O3 in the air (Alebić-Juretić et al. 2007). Trees
can act as biological filters due to their large leaf area and physical properties. These
can remove many particles from the air and improve its quality (Beckett et al. 1998;
Nowak et al. 2000; Brack 2002; Jim and Chen 2008; Escobedo and Nowak 2009).
Trees can effectively reduce the effects of harmful forms of particulate pollution
(such as PM10 ) or gases like SOx , NOx , CO and CO2 and effectively reduce the
concentration of O3 (Nowak et al. 2000). The ecosystem service’s efficiency depends
on the types of plants, the canopy area, the types and characteristics of air pollutants,
and the native meteorological environment. Larger trees remove and stock more
carbon dioxide from the air, capture air pollutants, provide shade, and intercept
precipitation (Brack 2002).
In urban areas, areas with more urban trees absorb more pollutants from the air,
and this capacity increases as the trees reach their final size (Jim and Chen 2008).
In general, when the surface of the leaves and bark of the tree is rough or sticky, the
tree becomes more efficient at absorbing particles (Escobedo and Nowak 2009). For
smaller particles, the most effective absorption occurs in conifer needles. Because
of the larger total surface area of needles, conifers’ filtering capacity is greater than
that of deciduous trees (Escobedo and Nowak 2009). This ability is more significant
because the needles do not fall off in winter when the air quality is usually at its worst
(Bolund 1999). According to Jim and Chen (2008), most of the removal work takes
place in winter, which is mainly due to the higher concentration of contaminants
(Bolund 1999).
Compared to smaller trees in the landscape, seasoned trees usually bring more
benefits to society because they store large amounts of carbon in their tissues due
to their huge size. Similarly, trees near busy roads trap more material than rural
trees (Beckett et al. 1998). In Chile, for example, studies have shown that Santiago’s
urban forests can effectively remove PM10 (Escobedo and Nowak 2009). Likewise
suburban vegetation in the Madrid region is an O3 sink. Nowak et al. (2000) simulated
the effects of increased urban tree cover in Washington DC on O3 concentration
and observed that urban trees usually reduce urban O3 concentration. Few studies
link urban forest structure and socio-economic activities with pollution dynamics in
specific areas (Escobedo and Nowak 2009).
8 Climate Change Impacts: Changing of Weather Patterns

in Pakistan
Due to changing precipitation patterns, Africa experienced the historical droughts,

and food insecurity (Williams and Funk 2011). Like Africa, destruction in Indian
northwestern part was also due to climate change, and it is now causing similar
changes in Pakistan (Rodó and Comin 2003). Geographical location and climate of
South Pakistan is considered as an arid region where drought and water shortages
are expected to occur. Precipitation is expected to be lowest in some areas, with
rainfall estimates of less than 10 mm. The country’s annual average precipitation is
expected to be less than 40 mm. Negative impacts of climate damage on its economic
structure and population can be seen in countries like Pakistan (Qureshi and Ali 2011).
Being aware of the problem and its future consequences on the economy and social
development, the government of Pakistan is taking steps to overcome its possible
impacts.
Although Pakistan lacks the modern technologies, infrastructures, methods,
and systems for ecological development, regulators suggest investing significant
resources to alleviate and adapt to climate change is a hope. However, govern-
ment agencies should ensure that investments are made in building reliable irrigation
systems to accommodate expected changes in rainfall. Over the past two decades, the
incidence and extent of severe climate change has increased and currently Pakistan’s
significant portion of the population (≥40%) is suffering from droughts, storms, and
erratic rainfall (Hussain et al. 2020, 2010). It is expected to exacerbate in the form
of unstable weather, cyclones, storms, droughts and floods (Ullah et al. 2018).
9 Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies in Pakistan
Pakistan is among the top climate change vulnerable countries in recent times, so the
socio-economic development of Pakistan to adapt to the impacts of climatic condi-
tions is essential. Pakistan’s Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC) is taking various
measures to help residents adaptation to national climate policies and take mitiga-
tion/adaptation measures in the areas of transport, agriculture, animal husbandry,
energy, forestry, urban planning, and industry (Lin and Ahmad 2017). Based on the
expected National Determined Contributions (INDC), Pakistan needs about 7014
billion$/year for mitigation measures. According to the “Green Pakistan Plan”,
around 1285 million rupees have been allocated to the forest department for massive
tree plantation (GOP 2020). Water and agriculture are the two most vulnerable areas
and adaptation measures need to be taken up in these areas. The preferred technolo-
gies recommended by the agricultural sector for rainwater management are highly
efficient irrigation systems (drip irrigation), drought-tolerant plant varieties, climate
forecasting and early warning systems (Ministry of Climate Change 2020).
The different departments at micro-level urgently need multi-layered and detailed
strategies for climate change mitigation (Shaffril et al. 2018). Adaptive measures are
needed for making less interference in forests, glaciers, wetlands, and pastures. To
accomplish the national sustainable development goals, it is necessary to organize
and define related processes critical to containment and adaptation.
10 Conclusion and Future Perspectives
Global warming can be seen as the impact of climate change which is the primary
concern for researchers in the contemporary times. Increase in global temperature,
due to increased greenhouse gases cause intense heatwaves and subsequently large
number of deaths each year in several countries, including Pakistan. Pakistan’s adapt-
ability is poor due to high levels of poverty, poor economy and lack of material
resources. Pakistan is vulnerable to severe and common extreme climate change
effects.
First, the role of government must be actively played to remove contradictions
and ineffective technologies in strategic planning, definition, and implementation.
Second, for mitigation and adaptation of climate change, to prioritize and review envi-
ronment friendly and sustainable processes a sustainable national development plan
should be framed. Third, in addition to government intervention, people should have
complete awareness, understanding, of climate conditions, which may encourage
their greater participation. Fourth, government agencies, organizations, and people
should concentrate to reduce the destruction of fertile lands, oceans, pastures, forests
and wetlands, which are the natural sinks of pollution and policies should be formu-
lated for their conservation. Finally, qualitative research should be undertaken to
thoroughly analyze and explain the impact of climate change. Current research is
focused on specific features; it is also recommended that a more in-depth assessment

of various climate-related sectors be carried out. However, there is a lack of detailed
studies on the sectoral causes and effects of climate change.
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Impacts of Climate Change
on Agriculture and Horticulture
Mounes Sadat Eftekhari
Abstract Temperatures have risen by 0.9° since the nineteenth century, mainly due
to greenhouse gas emissions. According to estimates, by 2050, this temperature
increase will be around 1.5 °C or even higher. Climate change affects crop and
livestock production, hydrological equilibrium, and other components of farming
systems. Given the fundamental role of agriculture in human well-being, federal
agencies have expressed concerns over the potential effects of climate on agricultural
productivity. The agricultural sector’s impact on climate change and global warming
is through greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.
Methane gas has the most significant potential for global warming, which is about 300
times more than carbon dioxide. WMO forecast models say by 2100, air temperature
will increase by 2–5 °C. Climate change is experienced at high latitudes due to rising
temperatures, longer growing seasons, plant densities, increased photosynthesis, and
improved crop yields. At lower latitudes, rising temperatures create environmental
problems such as drought stress and limited crop yields.
Keywords Forecast models · Crop yield · Agricultural productivity · Climate

change impacts
1 Introduction
Development of human civilization, change of lifestyle, and industrialization of soci-

eties followed by the excessive use of fossil fuels are the factors that have caused
pollution in nature. On the other hand, the increasing growth of factories and indus-
tries and the change in land use have exacerbated the pollution level. Although the
trend has been almost constant, the average alteration rate has increased dramatically
over the past 100 years. Temperature has risen by 0.9° since the nineteenth century,
mainly due to greenhouse gas emissions, and according to estimates, by 2050, this
temperature increase will be around 1.5 °C or even higher. Greenhouse gas emis-
sions and climate change are among the most essential concerns in the world today,
M. S. Eftekhari (B)
Faculty of Sciences, Institute of Geography, FAU Erlangen-Nuremberg, 91058 Erlangen, Germany
118 M. S. Eftekhari
leading to changes in ecosystems and the characteristics of the world’s different

biomes. Thus, extensive research has been conducted in this field to investigate the
effects of climate change on various sectors such as agriculture, horticulture, irriga-
tion, economy, natural hazards, transportation, air pollution, and security and military
issues (Aroara 2019).
Given the fundamental role of agriculture in human well-being, federal agencies
and others have expressed concern about the potential effects of climate change
on agricultural productivity. It affects crop and livestock production, hydrological
equilibrium, and other components of farming systems. However, understanding the
nature of these biophysical effects and human responses is a complex and challenging
task. For example, crop yield is directly affected by change in temperature, rainfall,
the severity of natural disasters such as droughts, floods, and storms. At the same
time, carbon dioxide plays an essential role in plant production. Therefore, to study
this issue, in addition to identifying the effects of climate change on agriculture and
horticulture and ways to control it, special attention should be paid.
2 Greenhouse Gases, Global Warming, and Climate

Change
The Earth’s atmosphere combines different gases and airborne particles (solid parti-
cles and suspended liquids) and surrounds the Earth like a thin membrane. The
constituents of the atmosphere are nitrogen (N2 ), oxygen (O2 ), argon (Ar), carbon
dioxide (CO2 ), neon (Ne), helium (He), hydrogen (H), krypton (Kr), xenon. (Xe),
methane (CH4 ), and ozone (O3 ). Among these gases, carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxide, ozone, halocarbons, water vapor, and other rare gases are considered
greenhouse gases, and an increase in their amount leads to disruption of atmospheric
compounds and thus global warming. These gases act like a glass against the short
waves (radiation) of the sun entering the Earth and pass them toward the Earth but
prevent the Earth’s long waves (reflection) from leaving the Earth’s atmosphere.
So, the heat-trapping mechanism is considered as greenhouse effect. In total, it can
be said that over the past 2 billion years, the climate has experienced alternating
periods of heat and frost. Although the climate has been relatively stable in the past
10,000 years, global warming has been observed in recent centuries due to greenhouse
gases (Qiyasi et al. 2016).
Studies show that the climate has become warmer in all seasons and most areas
than in the last century. This change has had the highest temperature during the
previous 50 years, the leading causes of which can be increased greenhouse gases,
solar radiation intensity, suspended sulfate particles, land-use change, and the impact
of human activities. The chart below shows the trend of temperature increase from
1880 to 2020. If the warming trend continues, the possibility of repeated torrential
rains and other natural disasters will increase (Maleki 2017) (Fig. 1).
Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Horticulture 119
Fig. 1 The trend of increasing global temperature changes
3 The Effects of Heat Caused by Global Warming
Warmer global conditions and rising average annual temperatures because of green-
house gases increase potential evapotranspiration in soil and plants, and therefore
affect plant growth and hurt agricultural production. They also increase evaporation
and plants’ water needs and put additional pressure on available water resources.
Marginal lands and borderlands adjacent to arid and desert regions are likely to suffer
more from drought and dehydration than other areas. This is because these areas’
plant species are more vulnerable due to the existing climatic conditions and the
overstressed water resources (Maleki 2017; Arora 2019). Decreased rainfall limits
the crop rotation options and makes planting some rain-fed crops uneconomical
(Westcott 1991). Although heavy and sometimes untimely heavy rains may provide
an excellent opportunity to extract and store water in some conditions, it can poten-
tially cause flooding, intensify soil erosion, and increase soil degradation. Sometimes,
untimely summer rains increase the humidity and the subsequent fungal diseases and
illnesses. In some vegetation and some agricultural products, fungi and the related
infections significantly reduce the yield (Qiyasi et al. 2016).
4 Climate Change and Its Impact on Water Resources
There is no doubt in the fact that today water and the resulting crises are a vital issue
both at regional and global levels. Water scarcity is a critical issue in countries like
Iran, which has arid and semi-arid regions. So far, many glaciers have disappeared due
to climate change and if this decline continues at the current rate, most of the glaciers
that feed several rivers in the warm season will disappear by the next 10–15 years.
On the other hand, due to sudden melting of snow and ice in the spring, there
occurs an increased incidence of floods and droughts. In water-scarce countries,
climate change reduces the snow reserves in the mountains and, makes permanent
rivers seasonal, besides resulting in severe water shortages in the warmer seasons.
For example, a 2° rise in temperature and a 10% decrease in rainfall in an area
120 M. S. Eftekhari
can reduce a river’s flow by 50% or even more (Maleki 2017). If the river water
is the only source of agricultural irrigation in that area, the effects are more dire.
Climate change also has an indirect effect on groundwater in terms of the rise or
fall of groundwater aquifers, e.g., in arid countries such as Iran, due to the all-time
deficit of groundwater reservoirs, the possibility of using groundwater even in times
of drought remains limited.
5 Relationship of Climate Change with Agriculture
Climate is considered as the most important agricultural production factor, as it

affects the hydrological balance, and other components of agricultural systems like
precipitation, soil moisture, temperature, and sea level. In turn, the agricultural sector
also affects the climate system through the production of greenhouse gases such
as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide during various processes and crop
production stages. Among the different greenhouse gases produced from this sector,
methane gas has the most significant global warming potential of about 300 times
more than carbon dioxide and 20 times more than nitrous oxide. The primary sources
of methane production in agriculture and horticulture are nitrogen fertilizers, rice
fields, soil erosion, biomass burning, livestock production, deforestation, wetland
drainage, and straw burning (Rezaei and Afroozi 2015).
According to the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) comprehensive
forecast models, by 2100, the air temperature will increase by 2–5 °C (depending
on the region), which will increase the rate of evapotranspiration by 30–40 percent
especially in latitudes below 45° (Maleki 2017). As a result, areas around the Earth’s
dry belt, including Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and African countries, will expe-
rience droughts, floods, fires, and other natural disasters. However, areas covered
with snow and ice at higher latitudes, such as Russia and Scandinavia, will benefit
from climate change and rising temperatures. Thus, increasing the temperature to a
certain extent in different areas can have positive or negative effects depending on
the place’s general conditions. Climate change is experienced at higher latitudes due
to rising temperatures, longer growing seasons, plant densities, increased photosyn-
thesis, and improved crop yields. While at lower latitudes rising temperatures create
environmental problems such as drought stress and limited crop yields, in temperate
latitudes, with increasing temperature, the issue of spring plants, and their germina-
tion in spring, and subsequently, their decreased yield is experienced (Rezaei and
Afroozi 2015). Some areas, such as those around the Earth’s arid belt and areas that
are still experiencing rainfall shortages, will undoubtedly experience crop declines
due to reduced rainfall or increased evaporation.
6 Possible Reactions of Agricultural Ecosystems to Climate

Change
6.1 Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide on Crop Growth
Different plant species show different responses to this phenomenon, e.g., the C3 plant
like wheat, rice, and soybeans react quickly to increasing CO2 concentrations, while
the reaction of C1 plants like corn, sorghum, and millet is absolutely different from
that of the first group. Although at the current concentration of carbon dioxide, the
photosynthetic efficiency in C1 plants is higher than in C3 plants, these plants’ reaction
to the increased carbon dioxide concentration is less. Excessive accumulation of
CO2 in the atmosphere closes the pores of plants, reduces the absorption of gases,
and reduces the vapors in these pores. Therefore, if carbon dioxide is saturated,
crops are likely to consume less water and produce more carbon hydrates. This dual
effect is expected to improve water use efficiency (relative to plant biomass to water
consumed). Simultaneously, rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and soil
moisture, and increasing occurrence of extreme weather events due to climate change
enhance or neutralize the beneficial effects of growing gas concentrations on crop
physiological performance (Adams et al. 2018).
6.2 The Effect of Increasing Temperature
In the middle and high latitudes, global warming prolongs plants’ growth period
and accelerates plants’ germination, seed development, and harvesting season. As
a result, arable lands in Canada and Russia are likely to expand polewards. Due
to the lack of soil nutrients at higher latitudes, crop yields in these areas will be
lower than in other areas. When the latitudes become warmer, the amount of carbon
dioxide emitted by the plants’ respiration increases, resulting in optimal growth
conditions. When the temperature rises to the optimum level for plants’ biological
activities, most of them react negatively and experience a sudden decline in growth
and reduced yield. In many climate change models, it is predicted that the minimum
evening temperature will increase more than the maximum daytime temperature.
The occurrence of temperature stress during daytime has a less adverse effect than
increasing the average night temperature. A substantial impact of rising temperature
is accelerating the plant’s physiological activities, thus accelerating its maturity and
development, and reducing crop yield. Further, as the temperature increases, the soil
moisture retention capacity is also affected. Rising temperatures in some seasons
may damage some plants (Arora 2019), e.g., extreme heat in spring and summer
may cause some plants to overheat and affect grain protein production. Some of the
currently thriving arable lands may gradually become marginal and low-yielding due
to increasing temperatures.
122 M. S. Eftekhari
6.3 Soil Erosion and Fertility
Rising temperatures due to climate change also affect the soil. In warmer climates,
the rate of decomposition of soil organic matter may increase and cause other reac-
tions to have some adverse effects on soil fertility. Therefore, the need to increase
the use of chemical fertilizers to compensate for this phenomenon and prevent a
decline in crop yield becomes another consequence of increasing temperature and
concentration of carbon dioxide. Expanding the use of chemical fertilizers further
harms water resources and air quality. Soil moisture reduction due to increasing
temperature reduces root growth and decomposition of organic matter and intensifies
wind erosion. Intensification of heatwaves and atmospheric pressure and humidity
enhances the monsoon rains in the tropics, to increase the process of soil erosion
(Aghaahmadi and Asadikani 2016).
6.4 Pests and Diseases
As the world becomes warm, the conditions become feasible for harmful insects to
multiply. Further, prolonging plant growth seasons cause more of these pests (such
as locusts) to go through their reproductive cycle. In areas where the intensity of
winter cold does not allow insect larvae to flourish, global warming facilitates this
phenomenon. It increases the possibility of pest outbreaks in the warm seasons of
the year in these areas. Changing the wind patterns also changes the transmission of
insects, bacteria, and disease-causing fungi. Temperature changes disrupt the proper
time of the evolutionary cycle of insects and host plants, which disrupts their inter-
action. Therefore, the need to use pesticides in these conditions increases, and the
need to develop integrated control methods becomes much more severe (Mikoyan
2015).
6.5 Rising Oceans
By the middle of the next century, melting polar ice caps and glaciers due to climate
change will raise the level of the oceans and seas by 0.1–0.5 m. Rising sea levels will
pose a severe threat to agriculture in low-lying coastal areas due to the intrusion of
saline water into the surface and groundwater resources and subsequent disruption
of the irrigation water supply from these sources (Adams et al. 2018).
7 Some Possible Options for Adapting to Climate Change

Conditions
According to the issues mentioned above, one of the existing solutions to reduce
the harmful effects of climate change on agriculture is implementing some possible
options that can make agriculture and horticulture compatible with climate change.
These solutions are as follows:
1. Application of technical methods for better use of soil moisture.
2. Soil moisture profile management in response to the risk of reduced rainfall.
3. Attention to early planting and using cultivars with shorter growth periods.
4. Improving tactical responses to planting position, based on seasonal landscape
and other performance estimation information such as soil moisture storage
status and planting time.
5. Maximizing water use and soil moisture efficiency by different farm manage-
ment techniques including no-till operation, the return of crop residues, the
spacing of rows, and the reduction of seed amount.
6. Monitoring soil moisture to ensure optimal irrigation and management
practices.
7. Planting, holding, harvesting, and paying attention to planting cycle, weed
control.
8. Planting annual plants with deeper roots (wherever possible) because they can
improve water productivity and absorb moisture adequately.
9. Increased use of forage plants after summer rains.
10. Reducing the possibility of soil degradation and erosion.
11. Building new dams to store heavy rainfall and showers.
12. Decreasing crop yields in marginal areas by making certain necessary changes
in agricultural systems.
13. Switching to animal husbandry may be considered (although it should be noted
that livestock breeding would also be affected by climate change).
7.1 Compatibility Options
Each field should be evaluated for planting suitable species, and in marginal areas, risk
assessment should be performed to determine the degree of flexibility and stability.
7.2 Soil Management
Effective soil management in farming activities improves soil conditions. It increases

the yield of crops that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improves environmental
sustainability.
124 M. S. Eftekhari
7.2.1 Possible Effects
Excessive (non-optimal) nitrogen use can lead to more losses through leaching
(deep infiltration) and runoff. In heavy rainfall, increased leaching of fertilizers and
plant nutrients leads to reduced soil quality. Reduced rainfall reduces vegetation and
increases the likelihood of wind and water erosion. Soil compaction or submergence
causes favorable anaerobic conditions for nitrogen conversion in the denitrification
process wherein nitrate, a suitable form for plant consumption, will be converted to
Nitrous Oxide, a non-consumable form for plants, and one of the greenhouse gases.
Soil acidification may increase due to increased carbon dioxide concentrations.
8 Reduction of Greenhouse Gases
8.1 Calculating Carbon
The agricultural sector has a significant share in global greenhouse gas emissions.
According to the Climate Change Division, Australia’s share of agriculture (including
energy and transportation) in greenhouse gas production in 2006 was about 15.6%,
making it the second-largest greenhouse gas contributor in the country. The agricul-
tural sector and forestry potentially play an effective role in reducing and controlling
greenhouse gases through carbon sequestration (Aghaahmadi and Asadikani 2016).
Agriculture plays an essential role in the exchange and control of greenhouse gases,
both as a source of production and as a source of carbon sequestration from the
atmosphere. To date, agriculture has been one of Australia’s most important sectors
in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The Australian Government has exempted
the agricultural sector from the plan by 2015 under a mandatory national strategy to
reduce carbon pollution. According to this plan, each production or service sector
is supposed to pay for the amount of carbon it produces. Each carbon-producing
sector is obliged to reduce carbon production by using existing technologies and, if
necessary, using alternative technologies. However, due to the importance of control-
ling carbon emissions, the amount of carbon production in the agricultural sector,
which has a unique complexity in measuring and monitoring, is still considered as
an unavoidable issue to find a suitable solution for it. Determining the agricultural
sector’s role in the plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions depends on international
agreements. Under the Kyoto Protocol, many governments, committed to enforcing
the carbon offsets law, e.g., the Australian Government implemented a plan called
the "Carbon Pollution Reduction Plan" (CPRS) to mitigate climate change effects,
which has had a significant impact on the country’s energy policy (Aghaahmadi and
Asadikani 2016).
8.2 Management of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Soil
Nitrous oxide (NO) is another potential greenhouse gas. According to the IPCC,
nitrous oxide gas makes up to 7% of greenhouse gases. The share of agriculture in
the production of this greenhouse gas is estimated at 60%. One of the reasons for its
production is the high rate of consumption of nitrogen fertilizer to boost agricultural
production. Most plants use only less than 50% of the nitrogen applied to the soil
as fertilizer, while the rest enters the environment and creates direct environmental
pollution causing the production of greenhouse gases. Plans that increase nitrogen
efficiency can reduce emissions, mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, and at the
same time, promote environmental sustainability and the profitability of agricultural
products (Mikoyan 2015).
8.3 Effective Measures to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions
• Soil and tillage management to minimize nitrogen losses.

• Excellent and adequate drainage to reduce the possibility of soil flooding and
reduction of soil moisture in extreme conditions.
• Avoiding application of fertilizers to saturated soils, especially nitrate fertilizers.
• Increasing soil organic matter by placing forage plants in crop rotation and adding
compost to the soil.
• Adding gypsum to soil to improve soil structure and avoid anaerobic conditions.
• Covering the soil surface with vegetation as much as possible to prevent or reduce
nitrogen losses through leaching or denitrification.
• Avoiding crop residue burning and instead returning crop residues to the soil and,
as far as possible, pruning instead of incineration.
• Application of nitrogen fertilizer during the growing season based on the calcu-
lation of the plant-based nitrogen requirements on the intended yield to prevent
its excessive use and search for optimal consumption strategies.
• Estimation of available nitrogen before the application of fertilizers.
8.4 Managing the Emission of Methane Gas from Livestock
A huge quantity of methane gas is produced by the ruminants such as cattle and
sheep; for example, as per the available statistics, methane production in Australia,
where the livestock industry is booming, is about 12% of greenhouse gas emissions.
Changing farm management to use techniques that further convert this feed energy
into productive energy can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve livestock
productivity. Any action on nutrition management, feed improvement, animal health,
livestock management, and genetic modification can help control greenhouse gases
and improve yields. Improving the quality of pastures, adding feed additives to animal
126 M. S. Eftekhari
feed, managing feed content, and increasing the quality and value of animal feed are
the tasks that will enhance productivity and reduce methane gas emissions. The
higher content of nitrate, phosphate, and potassium in fertilizers and animal waste
can be due to poor and ineffective animal nutrition.
For this reason, paying attention to healthy livestock nutrition can increase the
production efficiency of livestock and livestock products, help the environment,
reduce greenhouse gases, and consequently reduce climate change. Animal waste
is one important source of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. It is esti-
mated that about 2.5% of Australia’s greenhouse gases are generated through animal
waste decomposition. The high level of greenhouse gases in animal waste is due to
large amounts of organic matter, moisture, rejected carbohydrates, and high trace
elements. So, we need to properly manage the animal wastes to avoid any additional
burdens of GHG on the atmosphere.
9 Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions at the Farm Level
One practical way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is to develop vegetation or

afforestation that allows the plants to absorb carbon dioxide and stabilize it in the
soil. Storing carbon in the soil can also help reduce the release of these gases. Trees
and other plants absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide during growth and the synthesis
process. Carbon is an essential element in good soils that improves soil fertility,
water holding capacity, and aeration one, and facilitates nutrient mobility. It provides
a favorable environment for the better establishment and growth of plants. Carbon
stored in the soil reduces greenhouse gases’ adverse effects compared to carbon,
active in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. Storage of carbon in the soil is one way
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve crop yields. In this regard, to help
absorb and store carbon in the soil, the following can be considered:
• Indentification of new tree planting stations (forestry), and selecting suitable
species and convenient locations for their survival and maximum growth.
• Encouraging the production and regrowth of native plant species and keeping
animals away by fencing or other measures.
• Protecting native plants from fire, plowing, and destruction by animals.
• Estimating the amount of carbon that can be absorbed by forests and plants, e.g.,
Australia has developed a software called the Carbon Calculation Tool for this
purpose.
• Selection and application of protective plowing.
• Returning crop residues to the soil and avoiding straw burning.
• Using organic animal manure to fertilize the soil.
• Avoiding soil fallows and controlling grazing to prevent the bare soil.
• Consider planting crops with annual forage plants and planting mixtures of forage
plants with legumes.
Improving energy efficiency at the farm level

Improving energy efficiency in agricultural operations and using alternative fuels
instead of fossil fuels will reduce greenhouse gas emissions while saving on
electricity and fuel costs. In this regard, the following can be considered:
• Selection of new equipment and devices according to the energy efficiency.
• Changing the consumption from diesel to liquefied petroleum gas and paying
serious attention to renewable energy sources.
• Replacing high-consumption machines with energy-efficient machines.
• Optimal use of natural light and air conditioning in livestock and poultry buildings.
• Insulating buildings, hot- and cold-water pipes, and water storage tanks.
• Installation of energy-saving lamps in farm production buildings.
• Continuous maintenance and service of machinery.
• Application of protective plowing and traffic control in large farms (reducing
heavy machinery traffic on the soil surface, especially in high humidity condi-
tions).
• Improving the efficiency of chemical fertilizers and pesticides.
• Coordinating the power of irrigation pumps with the control of their drive motors.
• Utilizing soil moisture monitoring to improve irrigation efficiency and, there-
fore, less energy consumption to improve irrigation water supply and distribution
efficiency.
10 A Review of the Case Study of Date Palms in the Field

of Climate Change and Horticulture
Considering the date palm as one of the strategic crops of Iran, many studies have been
carried out on the effect of climate change on this crop. Evaluation of distribution
of date palm (Phoenix dactylifera) in Iran under climate change conditions has been
done using topographic data, soil physicochemical properties, soil classification,
land use, and climatic data. Results of a number of such studies show that due to
climate change, large-scale changes are expected to occur in areas suitable for date
cultivation (Adhaahmadi and Asadikani 2016).
Comparison of the current distribution of P. dactylifera (Fig. 2) in areas with
suitable soil properties in terms of physio-chemical classification, land use, and
slope less than 10° in Iran shows that these areas have >20 EI (Fig. 3).
According to the results, approximately 87% of the current distribution of dates
(Fig. 3) in Iran is in the appropriate range (Adhaahmadi and Asadikani 2016).
As shown in Fig. 3, the gray sections show the suitable areas for date cultivation
in terms of soil physicochemical properties, classification, and land use with a slope
of fewer than 10°. The results show that 4.8 million hectares of Iran’s southern
and central parts are currently suitable for date cultivation. The prediction models
(Fig. 4) indicate that between 2030 and 2070, large areas will be prone to date
cultivation. However, there are differences between the results of the models, which
128 M. S. Eftekhari
Fig. 2 Current distribution of date palms worldwide
Fig. 3 The current distribution of date palms in Iran

Fig. 4 Favorable areas for date cultivation in terms of climatic conditions (EI > 1) for 2030, 2050,
2070, and 2100
are expected to intensify between 2070 and 2100, due to the different predictions of
precipitation and temperature changes in each model. One model predicts that by
2100 the temperature will rise by 4.31 °C, while the other model predicts this rise to
be 2.11°. In terms of precipitation, one model predicts only a 1% decrease in annual
rainfall for 2100, while the other model estimates this decrease at 13–15%. Both
models predict that due to rising temperatures in central Iran, 5–13 million hectares
of these potential areas will lose their suitability by 2100. Therefore, both models
show that because of heat stress by 2100, large sections of latitudes 30–35° north
and 50–60° east will be unfavorable for this crop. Further, it is estimated that by
2100 (Fig. 4), the cold stress and humidity will no longer be a problem for dates
(Adhaahmadi and Asadikani 2016).
Refining the forecasting model outputs using non-climatic parameters such as
desirable physical and chemical properties of soil, soil classification, slope, and land
use makes the output more accurate and valid. For example, the models show that
approximately 56.5 million hectares of parts of Iran will be suitable for date culti-
vation by 2030, while based on soil chemical-physical properties, soil classification,
slope, and land use, 34.25 million hectares will be unsuitable and the same trend is
observed for 2050, 2070, and 2100 in both models, shown in Fig. 5 (Adhaahmadi
and Asadikani 2016).
Cultivation of dates in unsuitable soil has several consequences, e.g., it hurts
the weight, size, diameter, and fruit length. Saline soils, mainly located in central
130 M. S. Eftekhari
Fig. 5 Suitable areas for date cultivation in Iran for 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100 based on the
suitability of soil type, physicochemical properties of soil, and land use with a slope of fewer than
10° and EI > 20
and eastern Iran, significantly reduce soil water’s osmotic potential and date yield.
Another consequence of saline soils is that toxic ions can cause severe problems for
plant growth besides inhibiting date palm root growth. Further, date seeds cannot
germinate in saline soil. The soil map shows that most of Iran’s central and eastern
parts have salinities above 16 ds/m, making these areas unsuitable for date cultivation.
Therefore, refining the climate model results by non-climatic factors such as soil type
gives great credibility to the predictions.
11 Conclusion
Climate change has certain seriously irreparable consequences on the world’s agri-
culture systems, damaging the crop distribution zone, crop quality and quantity,
and food security. It has the potential of pushing the whole world especially the
poor and developing nations into abject poverty. It renders millions of children in the
developing world the prey of malnutrition, thus challenging the millinium sustainable
development goals. Therefore, sustainable agricultural production necessitates accu-
rate land-use forecasting and climate modeling, because the modeling and refining
of the results enable growers to take appropriate steps to minimize climate change’s
adverse effects and consider the predicted scenarios in crop cultivation.
References
Adams RM, Hurd BH, Lenhart S, Leary N (2018). Effects of global climate change on agriculture;
an interpretative review
Aghaahmadi A, Asadikani R (2016) Effects on horticultural production and adaptation and coping
strategies. Deputy Minister of Horticulture, Department of Studies and New Technologies
Arora NK (2019) Impact of climate change on agriculture production and its. Soc Environ Sustainab
Maleki R (2017) Assessing the effects of climate change on Iran’s water and agricultural resources.
Conference on organic VS conventional agriculture
Mikoyan A (2015) Climate change impact on water resources and crop production
Qiyasi M, Amirnia R, Fazelimanesh M (2016) The effects of climate change on conventional
agriculture. Third national conference on climate change and its impact on agriculture and
environment
Rezaei M, Afroozi A (2015) Evaluating the effects of climate change on crop yield and presenting
a strategy for changing the cultivation pattern Case study: (Siminehroud Basin). J Water Soil
Protect
Westcott PC (1991) Planting flexibility and land allocation. Amer J Agric Econ 73(4), 1105–1115.
Retrieved 2 14, 2021, from https://academic.oup.com/ajae/article/73/4/1105/116352
Ecological Responses to Climate Change
Mohammad Pouresmaeily
Abstract Numerous experts believe that we are on the verge of a mass extinction,
and that man-made climate change is one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity
at the moment. In-depth assessments of many taxa indicate that 10–70% of plant
and animal species investigated thus far may be more vulnerable to extinction as a
result of climate change, and that by 2050, climate-induced habitat alterations may
result in the extinction of 15–37% of species. Additionally, there is an abundance
of evidence of recent climate change’s ecological impacts, spanning from arctic
terrestrial to tropical marine habitats. Extreme weather events elicit responses at
all levels of the ecosystem, from the individual to the entire ecosystem. Flora and
fauna’s responses cover a diverse variety of habitats and organizational hierarchies,
from the level of the individual species to the community as a whole. Recent climate
change has already resulted in ecological consequences. Numerous studies have now
documented ecological responses to contemporary climate change, allowing us to
determine whether the magnitude and type of recent responses match projections.
Additionally, this chapter examines the ecological response to the current climate
change phenomenon. Additionally, this chapter examines the ecological response to
the current climate change phenomenon.
Keywords Ecological response · Flora · Fauna · Extinction · Aquatic ecosystems
1 Introduction
Earth is around five billion years old, and humans began their lives, only 0.0004% of
this date (approximately 20,000 years ago). During this period, some fundamental
changes have taken place in the earth’s climate, and some of those changes have only
occurred in the last 12,000 years (Richardson et al. 2009). The relationship between
climate change and the earth’s surface ecosystem significantly affects the water and
M. Pouresmaeily (B)
Theoretical Ecosystems Ecology Group, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemical Cycles,
Hans-Knöll-Straße 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
134 M. Pouresmaeily
energy cycle. For this reason, today, the phenomenon of climate change is considered
the most significant environmental challenge in the world.
Earth is a dynamic system in terms of its structure and geological function, and
likewise, it shows complex reactions against this humanizing phenomenon. Among
the possible effects of climate change and global warming on the geosphere can be
mentioned: desertification, climate catastrophes, droughts, changes in the pattern of
prevailing winds, and, consequently, disturbance in the habit of sea and ocean streams,
land drowning, double-entry of pollutants into aquatic environments, mixing of fresh
and saline water sources, etc. The biosphere- the living part of the earth that creates
and sustains life, is highly subject to differences in its three major components.
Events caused by climate change, which occur on earth, also affect the earth’s vast
ecosphere, a vast system that creates and sustains life. According to research, some of
the crucial results of climate change include massive and strong extinctions, changes
in species composition, reduction of biodiversity from gene level to species and
ecosystem level, the emergence of foreign and invasive species, changing migration
patterns of animals, changing mechanisms of dispersal, changing distribution ranges
and physical geography of species and, pollution, etc. All biological consequences
are due to the alignment and integration of the effects of one or more geological,
climatic, and morphological changes that enter the earth’s biosphere alone or together.
Although many predictions about this phenomenon indicate its destructive effects,
some studies also suggest the violent nature of the possible occurrence of adap-
tive processes against this phenomenon. Genetic adaptations at the level of species
and populations, the continuous event of evolutionary processes during the repeated
occurrence of this phenomenon over several billion years, are among these cases.
Besides, large amounts of DNA molecules in eukaryotic cells do not currently
play a biological role in the genome. They are not also used in the transcription
and translation process of DNA expression. However, they may function in future
climatic conditions alongside evolutionary processes such as natural selection, inter
and intra-specific evolutionary adaptations, and co-evolution, etc., in a large number
of species. As a result, in many ecosystems, possible transformation happens in
many species. However, in some cases, ecosystems may not respond appropriately
to climate change and may disrupt or collapse. So, ecological responses to climate
change are vital issues and challenges that need to be addressed, which requires a lot
of analysis and extensive research (Emami and Saniei 2014; Faremi and Noradzadeh
2018).
So far, numerous studies have provided evidence of species’ responses to climate
change. Most of these studies focus specifically on individual species and show how
climate change impacts species’ phenology and physiology. The remarkable thing
about species in the same neighbourhood or the same area is that their response to
climate change is not different, so they are related in this regard. Further, sometimes,
due to ecological connections between different species, climate change affects one
species’ individuals and affects other species’ individuals in another region.
Ecological Responses to Climate Change 135
2 An Overview of the General Concept of Climate Change
Since the release of the IPCC Third Evaluation Report (TAR), climate change recog-
nition has made significant progress over time, and the reason for these improvements
include:
• Achieve a large amount of new data
• More comprehensive and sophisticated data analysis
• Understanding the complexities of climate change
• Simulation of physical processes in climate models
• Discover the range of uncertainty in these climatic model results (Richardson
et al. 2009).
It is a fact that climate change is happening and will affect the planet, at least
for decades to come. The extent and intensity of global warming in the twenty-first
century depends on different emission scenarios. According to the IPCC’s special
report on various greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the average global warming
from 1990 to the end of 2100 has a range of changes of 1.4° to 5.8 °C, as well as
the intermediate sea level from 9–88 cm will change under the influence of thermal
expansion and melting of icebergs (Emami and Samiei 2014).
The available evidence shows that climate change is undeniable. We cannot wait
any longer to take action, said the former UN Secretary-General (Kofi Annan) in
2001 in a speech in the United States. Each day, there are many reasons that the
climate is changing and evolving. According to the latest report released by the World
Meteorological Organization, 2010 was declared the warmest year in recent history.
Over the past century, the earth’s temperature has risen by 0.5 °C, the most massive
increase in at least a hundred years. According to the IPCC (2007), air temperatures
have risen sharply in recent decades. In the last 35 years, it has increased by about
0.18° per decade, in the previous 60 years by 0.13° per decade, and over the last
160 years, it has increased by about 0.045 °C per decade (IPCC 2007).
Abnormal climatic phenomena, including thunderstorms, severe floods, and
successive droughts, have been recorded in many parts of the world. Due to this
increase in temperature, the snow cover level decreases; glaciers are melting, lakes
and lagoons are warming, the rainfall pattern is continuously changing, sea level is
increasing, and the droughts occur with greater intensity and frequency. On the other
hand, these variations cause changes in the biological system of nature, apparent
consequences of changes in the distribution and dispersal of plants and animals, and
diversity changes.
2.1 Knowledge of Climate Change
Knowledge and understanding of climate change have increased dramatically over

the past decades, which has happened slower for other science aspects. Nevertheless,
136 M. Pouresmaeily
climate science is changing rapidly. Over the past two centuries, scientists have
become more confident in the essential elements of climate science. However, the
study and research on climate systems’ main factors still need more research and
exploration.
For example, recent changes in the behaviour of Arctic ice masses and natural
sources of carbon uptake are consistent with accelerating climate change. However,
some ambiguities about climatic phenomena still need to be examined, traced, and
identified to properly scrutinize and assess the degree of danger imposed by them
(Pignot et al. 2007).
The IPCC’s Fourth assessment report summarizes the state of climate change
science up to 2006 and identifies issues with a robust scientific agreement. The main
results of the IPCC’s First Working Group are as follows (IPCC 2007):
• According to the available evidence and observations, global warming, rising
global average temperatures and oceans, extensive melting of snow and ice, and
rising sea levels are clear and undeniable.
• Long-term changes observed in many climatic parameters on a continental,
regional, and oceanic scale cover some fluctuations, including changes in the
Arctic ice, massive precipitation changes, increasing salinity of oceans, changing
patterns of winds, unusual events such as droughts, heavy rainfall, extreme
heatwaves, and the intensification of tropical storms.
• Climatic information from the past Geology reinforces the interpretation that the
last half-century’s heat has been unusual for at least the previous 1300 years. Of
fact, in the very distant past (approximately 125,000 years ago), the polar regions
were substantially warmer than they are now. Therefore, the decline in ice volume
in these places due to this heat has increased sea level.
• Since the middle of the twentieth century, the most massive increase in global
warming is most likely (>90%) due to the rise in greenhouse gas emissions
from human activities. Human activities’ significant impact has now extended to
other aspects of the climate, including ocean warming, rising continental average
temperatures, and changing wind patterns.
• Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current levels will lead to further
warming and intensify many climate systems changes in the twenty-first century,
which is likely to be much larger than those observed in the twentieth century
(IPCC 2007).
2.2 Ecological Planets Index and Ecological Footprints
The ecological planet Index is a measure of natural ecosystems’ state based on the
abundance of animals and plants. Simultaneously, the Ecological Footprint Index
shows the human demand for the earth’s natural and biological resources. Of course,
these two indicators do not cover all the necessary conditions for achieving sustain-
able development. Nevertheless, without being aware of the biosphere’s ecological
limitations, it is impossible to claim that the planet is stable.
The ecological Planet Index is a measure of the state of the world’s natural ecosys-
tems. This index is obtained by calculating the average of three separate sub-indices:
the abundance of forests, access to fresh water, and abundance of aquatic animal
species. The pattern of changes in the biosphere index is declining, with a decline of
around 30 per cent from 1970 to 2005. (IPCC 2007).
The population of the earth’s biogeographical regions in the tropics and southern
temperate areas seems to be losing their biodiversity faster since 1970, while the
northern temperate regions appear to be more sustainable in terms of biodiversity
(Fatemi and Noradzadeh 2018).
2.3 Ecological Footprint
The ecological footprint is an indicator that shows human demand or human need
for land and sea to produce the required resources and disposal of wastes generated.
In 2005, researchers estimated the index’s global value at 17.5 billion hectares or 2.7
ha per capita. Meanwhile, the total productive lands, or the earth’s global production
capacity, are equal to 1366 billion hectares or 2.1 hectares per person (Emami and
Samiei 2014).
The ecological footprint compares the consumption of renewable natural
resources with the bio-production capacity of nature. A country’s footprint also
shows various factors, including the total land area needed for agriculture, forest
development, grazing, and fishing, maintaining sustainable energy consumption, and
creating enough space for the necessary facilities and infrastructure of that country.
For the first time in the 1980s, human ecological footprint exceeded the earth’s
bioavailability, and this surplus demand has continued ever since. Previously, ecolog-
ical footprints included other components, such as nuclear energy, that reflect energy
production from nuclear power plants. This component is no longer considered to
improve uniformity in estimating the earth’s bioavailability. Of course, this does not
mean that the use of nuclear energy is not safe, but it cannot be easily used for the
earth’s biological capacity. Most countries usually source part of their consumption
from other countries; therefore, their footprint is the sum of land required to produce
these resources, regardless of their geographical location.
According to the World Wildlife Foundation, the earth’s production capacity is
about 11.4 billion hectares, slightly less than a quarter of its area. This amount of
land, which shows the production capacity, biologically forms the earth’s biomass’s
productivity and bedrock. The other three-quarters of the earth’s land area includes
deserts, icebergs, frozen lands, and deep oceans, which account for the earth’s rela-
tively low biodiversity. The per capita amount of this fertile and productive part of the
earth’s biosphere, a quarter of the earth’s area in 1999, was reported to be 1.9 hectares.
At this rate, natural resource consumption in 1999 was about 20% higher than the
earth’s bio-production capacity. The earth’s bio-production capacity and ability also
vary with the amount of productive land and the average production per unit area.
Hence, factors such as population change, consumption, and the level of technology
138 M. Pouresmaeily
can bridge the gap between the human footprint and earth’s bio-production capacity
(IPCC 2007; Richardson et al. 2009).
As the planet’s bio-production capacity decreases due to degradation or climate
change, the gap between consumption and production widens. The result of this
unfortunate trend will be an increase in over-exploitation, which makes the conditions
for a healthy and desirable life more unfavourable. As mentioned earlier, humans
have been crossing the equilibrium since the 1980s, consuming more resources than
the planet can produce. If the degradation continues, ecosystem services such as
water purification, climate change, and environmental sustainability will face serious
challenges. For example, tropical forests support a wide range of biodiversity and
provide invaluable services to local and global ecosystems. When these forests are
destroyed, their use and their diversity are endangered up to the level of extinction.
Evidence shows that the lives of living organisms are in danger due to deforesta-
tion operations, illegal logging and fires, and climate change. Between 2000 and
2005, 3.5 million hectares of Brazilian forests and 15 million hectares of Indonesian
forests have been destroyed in these events. This extent of deforestation has reduced
tropical forest animal populations by around 60%. Since 1970, the arid species popu-
lation has declined by about 44 per cent, while dryland systems make up more than
40%, including desert ecosystems, savannas, and tropical and tropical arid vegetation
(Pignot et al. 2007).
According to researchers, 20% of the dry area is at risk of degradation. Meadows
are also declining both in size regarding their gradual conversion to agricultural land
and terms of quality. In comparison, human life is directly (through food supply)
and indirectly dependent on these areas. These areas also cover a wide range of
natural biodiversity, from rare to crucial species. Further, since 1970, the people of
grassland-dependent species have decreased by 36%, and several factors have been
identified to destroy the grasslands:
• Natural and unnatural fires
• Livestock grazing, especially overgrazing
• Droughts
• Desertification process (IPCC 2007; Richardson et al. 2009).
3 Phenological Changes and Ecological Communications

and Networks
Changes in some species’ life patterns, especially in temperate climates, can function
as seasonal changes. To explain it, the stages of phenological changes in several
decades have been studied, and in all studies, the role of environmental conditions is
shown to be prominent. For example, recent anomalies in the spring phenophases of
plant and animal species significantly affect the average air temperature in spring.
In some cases, the effect of climate change on plants’ spring phenology can be
observed in terms of germination, leaf emergence, flowering, and fruiting. Long-
term studies of the phenological trends in South America and Europe suggest that
reproduction and flowering have changed in recent years due to climate change.
Research shows that in Europe, leaf and flowering occur 1.4 to 3.1 days earlier in the
last 30 to 48 years and in South America 1.2 to 2 days in the previous 35 to 63 years.
There is some evidence of a change in fall activities that is less noticeable. Such as
changes in tree leaf colour, where studies have shown colour changes in tree leaves
with a progressive delay of 0.3 ± 1.6 days per decade, and some studies have reported
an increase in growth length of 3.6 days per decade in the last 50 years (Fatemi and
Noradzadeh 2018; Parmesan and Hanley 2015). Some species are sensitive to changes
in spring temperature, wherein flowering has been seen to occur faster than usual.
These species need a strategy to adapt to warm winters (false spring) before facing
high spring temperatures (P.B, S.E and T.D 2014).
Also, a response threshold in spring phenology, for example, for some plant
species, indicates that some species’ current trend reacting to some climate changes
cannot continue linearly and directly in the future. Other factors may also play a
role. Thus, although there is ample evidence of phenological changes in plants and
animals due to recent climate change, different species do not respond uniformly.
They may have different responses to the climate and other environmental factors.
Even in cases where the climate is the dominant stimulus for species phenology
change, different species may respond differently to the climatic parameters. The
consequences of such a differential response are observed in the time of species
interactions in environmental networks, such as food networks and parasite-host
networks. In food networks, climate fluctuations affect the relative time required and
food availability (Fatemi and Noradzadeh 2018).
4 The Effects of Climate Change on Morphology
The increasing concentration of CO2 directly impacts photosynthesis, gas exchange,

and other plant development processes. In C3 plants, a study in this field showed
that increasing carbon dioxide concentration would increase groundwater biomass
by 20%. Biomass has also grown 33% in certain circumstances, and the cause for
its rise or decline relies on the quantity of nitrogen and water available (P.B, S.E and
T.D 2014).
The increasing number of leaf nodes, leaf size, root length and changes in plant
fertility are some of the changes reported by farmers due to increased carbon dioxide
concentrations. These changes occur, especially in soybeans, wheat, rice, peanuts,
and beans. The following figure shows the effects of increasing CO2 concentra-
tion on plants. The increase in leaf size occurs due to the proliferation of cells and
their development. Further, the increased concentration of carbon dioxide causes the
production of new epidermal cells in the leaves. Similarly, increasing carbon dioxide
140 M. Pouresmaeily
Fig. 1 Effects of increasing

CO2 concentration on
growth and development of
soybean plant
and reducing rainfall in soybeans increases the number of root nodes (Gray and
Brady 2016) (Fig. 1).
5 Evolutionary Response of Species to Climate Change
Rapid climate change causes a wide range of pressure such as increasing heat and
drought stress on populations. Differences in thermal thresholds and the emergence
of stable temperatures and warmer winters will change the living Environment, which
means climate change destroys natural habitat and directly or indirectly affects the
entire ecosystem. Therefore, when these effects oppress a population, species inva-
sion becomes acute, and this invasion affects species evolution and gene change
in itself. The ecosystem will face the introduction of new population genotypes.
Although there is clear evidence of genetic modification in natural populations, it
does not necessarily support climate change.
In a study on B. Pubescens and Betula Pendula, genetic changes in these two plants
were investigated. This study showed that the species’ population levels significantly
evolved with changing climatic conditions, especially for the reproductive rate. Adap-
tation to future climatic conditions requires the simultaneous development of several
different plant traits correlated with each other. Therefore, diversity is the essential
condition for plant survival in the face of climate change. Plants with lower genetic
diversity, slower development, and lower fertility than other species populations are
prone to failure and extinction. A plant population’s potential to adapt to climate
change depends on its life span and the age at which it reproduces. If the conditions
are the same for perennials and annuals, perennial species adapt more quickly to
environmental changes (Anderson et al. 2012) than animals.
6 Species Migration
One of the effects of climate change is the species’ geographical range and migration
to new geographical areas. Evidence of these shifts has been observed in different
species during the climate change period. For example, warm-water species found in
the Mediterranean and northern regions in 2002 or thermophilic plants scattered
around their local habitat. Studies even indicate Antarctica’s plant diversity has
increased by 50 per cent or more in the last two centuries (Huanga 2020).
Today, many studies have examined the effects of climate change on plants, inver-
tebrates, birds, fish and their relocation to new lands. They found that the arrival of
new species had a different impact on local communities, divided into two categories.
The first category is non-native species, which are, in fact, species with a mechanism
similar to local communities that reproduce in new habitat conditions and the second
category, invasive species whose entry into a new geographical space causes adverse
effects on local communities. Therefore, it is expected that the plant community will
also change with the introduction of new species. In the Sonoran Desert in the south-
western United States, wood species density, loss of local species, and increased
animal species previously known as rare in the region have been observed (Tubridy
2020).
7 The Response of Ecosystems in Different Environments

to Climate Change
As climate change is variable, it can have other effects in different environments.

The following figure is an overview of the responses of ecosystems in different
environments to global warming.
Controls of Antarctic soils by utilizing Perspex cloches given reasonable reen-
actments of climate alteration (temperature increment and introduction to distinctive
wavelengths of UV radiation) using diverse Perspex sorts, VE, and Bull. These driven
inside two a long time to an expanded differing quality in soil nematode communities
(colours demonstrate the corresponding commitment of major genera), comparable
to that found in more created microhabitats (c). Nevertheless, the expanded event of
dying occasions on coral reefs (d) will likely diminish wealth on the off chance that
not differences (Walther GT et al. 2002) (Fig. 2).
142 M. Pouresmaeily
Fig. 2 Various environments and their responses to global warming
7.1 The Influence of Climate Change on Forest Ecosystems
Forests provide various functions, including protection of water, soil, biodiversity,

conservation and improvement of water quantity and quality, landscaping, wood
production, non-wood products, and recreation. Climate change affects forests’ struc-
ture and functions and poses many threats to them, such as fires, the spread of pests
and diseases, human intervention and development, and droughts.
Climate change has direct and indirect effects on forests’ growth and productivity,
directly impacting changes in carbon dioxide in the air and an indirect impact through
complex interactions in the forest ecosystem. Climate change forecasting provides
a reasonable estimate of land development, fire suppression, and air purification for
forests. The continuous trend of these changes in the future is likely to jeopardize
some of the forest’s valuable goods and services (Ramezani et al. 2018).
7.1.1 The Impact of Climate Change and Dust on the Productivity

of Forest Ecosystems
Many climate changes are likely to affect tree growth and productivity. These effects
become more pronounced with increasing carbon dioxide levels and air temperature,
and changes in rainfall regimes. Because of global warming, the temperature also
rises with the growing season, but with this global warming and increasing temper-
ature, the range of distribution changes. Climate change also increases the risk of
droughts. Although many trees are resistant to some degree of drought, it is likely
that in the future, droughts will be more severely affected by climate change than
in previous periods. Furthermore, this will increase the risk of fire, aggravation of
diseases, and pests for trees (Ramezani et al. 2018).
Dust particles (less than 10 microns in diameter) can have potentially harmful
effects on plant communities. Dust deposition on the branches and leaves of trees
can reduce photosynthesis and bury the buds under the dust. It also reduces the
differentiation of vegetative buds and facilitates growth in the following year.
Dust particles can be deadly to the tree by closing their stomata, reducing
photosynthetic activity, leaf fall, and tissue death. The reduction of photosynthesis
decreases light intensity to the leaves’ surface, and the growth rate decreases due
to this phenomenon. Any viscous or absorbent substance placed on the leaf causes
dust particles’ accumulation and reduces photosynthesis, leaving small leaves. Dust
particles less than 0.05 mm in diameter disrupt the mechanism of the pores, which
are mainly responsible for two significant and vital activities, namely respiration
and transpiration. Closure of pores by tiny dust particles reduces respiration, which
reduces gas exchange, photosynthesis rate, and other essential activities, finally
closing the pores of tree leaves due to dust. It dries and destroys them (Lavergne
and Mouquet 2015).
With the drying of trees, the frequency and severity of pests and diseases, such as
the prevalence of insects, invasive species, and storms, increase, which causes leaves
to fall and eventually the death of trees. These risks, which have increased due to
climate change, can reduce forest productivity and change species’ distribution. In
some cases, the forest can resist these disorders and recover if they occur. In other
cases, existing species may change their ecological range and create new types of
vegetation. This risk is significant in rare and endangered species.
7.1.2 Climate Change and Forest Fires
Fire is an ecological process that is sometimes necessary for forest ecosystems.

Climate change has had a significant relationship with fires. From this point of view,
it is required to monitor, identify, and evaluate climate change trends to determine
the climatic conditions and how their changes are related to the rate of fires and
their location. While there have been severe fires in recent years, forecasts indicate
that this trend will continue and intensify in the twenty-first century. Temperature
and rainfall forecasts for the twenty-first century, which will be affected by global
warming and climate change, predict the possibility of fires in most parts of the world
(Ramezani et al. 2018).
144 M. Pouresmaeily
7.2 The Impact of Climate Change on the Ecosystem of Arid

and Semi-arid Regions
The arid and semi-arid regions’ ecosystems are incredibly fragile and can be easily
damaged, and their development occurs under very acute exothermic conditions.
Their recovery is slow, with the elimination of adverse conditions, and in severe cases,
acute biological imbalance causes irreversible degradation and loss of biological
power. The vulnerability of these areas’ ecosystem is due to soil moisture loss, the
sun’s intensity, high temperatures, high drought, the weak layer of humus, salinity,
water-wind erosion etc.
7.2.1 Effects of Temperature Rise on Ecosystems in Arid and Semi-arid

Regions
Climate change and warming are leading to hydrological changes in arid regions due
to decreasing average annual rainfall. With the change of rainfall regime, the share
of floods increases. Further, by reducing the percentage of snow at high altitudes,
which is one of the crucial water sources in arid areas, ecosystems of these areas lead
to destruction.
Climate change also causes pests to overflow and become resistant. It reduces
ecosystem productivity and increases environmental pressures. As a result, it disrupts
energy flow, changes in food networks and the composition of competitions, changes
in chemical cycles, loss of sensitive species, impaired stability, and the collapse of
all parts of the ecosystem structure. Hydrological changes also lead to ecological
imbalance, intensification of erosion, irreversible degradation, reduced biological
production, and regression of vegetation and soil. Other consequences of climate
change on arid and semi-arid regions’ ecosystem are the extinction of vital species and
genetic diversity reduction. At least 140 species of plants and animals are destroyed
every day on earth (Mosayebi 2017) due to these issues.
Changes in seasons, climate violence and an increase in the number of tornadoes
and hurricanes due to rising temperatures, rising sea levels, and submerged coastal
beaches are due to rainfall and vegetation changes. Besides, there is some result of
climate change, which include:
1. Changes in agricultural patterns,
2. Scarcity of water resources due to faster snowmelt,
3. Changes in rainfall patterns,
4. Drying up of rivers and water wells,
5. Endangering human health,
6. Changes in forests and animals,
7. Increase in albedo,
8. Increased barley dust,
9. Reduced soil moisture,
10. Reduced rainfall in areas that are already dry,
11. High need for irrigation,

12. Increased salinity,
13. Reduced yields and intensified desertification.
7.2.2 The Impact of Climate Change on Short-Nosed Swamp Crocodile
Habitat of the short-nosed swamp crocodile in Iran is affected by various atmospheric

currents such as the monsoon system of the Indian subcontinent and the monsoon
rains of the Indian Ocean. Accordingly, the climatic regime of the region cannot be
considered simple due to its topographic situation. Significant phenomena in this area
include strong winds, sandstorms, torrential rains and thunderstorms, high humidity,
and morning fog. Due to the different moisture supply sources in the region, rainfall
patterns in the Bahuklat River basin, the primary habitat of crocodiles, are entirely
independent of other parts of Iran and even independent of the northern region of
Balochistan. Rainfall in autumn and spring is in heavy showers and the infiltration
of monsoon winds, followed by rains. High air temperature increases the rate of
evaporation. Therefore, this region can be considered the wettest point in the country’s
southern and eastern parts, with a humid maritime climate in which crocodiles are
well adapted. The annual increase in temperature has led to increased evaporation,
exceeding water resources’ capacity, and drought in recent years. Drought reduces
the riverbed’s water volume and reduces fish reproduction, which is the central part
of the crocodile’s diet. Despite many changes resulting from climate change, this
valuable species of wildlife has survived well with insufficient access to food and
dehydration and has changed its diet to some extent, which is a clear sign of wildlife
adaptation to climate change (Pouresmaeily and Eftekhari 2017).
7.3 The Effect of Climate Change on Aquatic Ecosystems
One of the most critical ecosystems globally is the aquatic ecosystems, which help
increase biodiversity and increase ecological productivity. Besides, marine ecosys-
tems can play an essential role in drinking water supply, irrigation water, and fish-
eries production. However, today these ecosystems are exposed to various hazards,
including human activities, climate change, and pollution; for this reason, an area of
these valuable resources is destroyed annually.
One of the leading aquatic ecosystems, and the primary biodiversity, is freshwater
ecosystems and coastal wetlands. These ecosystems have many benefits for civiliza-
tion and human well-being, listed in Table 1. These services are provided from four
different sources: rivers and streams, ponds and lakes, coastal wetlands and fresh-
water wetlands. However, the remarkable thing about this is the strong impact of
human activities on these biological communities (Reid and Cooke 2019).
Many human activities lead to greenhouse gas production to play an essential role
in global warming and climate change. Predicted climate change puts much pressure
146 M. Pouresmaeily
Table 1 Classification of
Supply of Water • Drinking
freshwater ecosystem benefits
• Cooking and washing
(Reid and Cooke 2019)
• Irrigation
• Aquaculture
• Manufacturing and power
generation
• Other industrial uses
Supply of on-water goods • Timber products
• Fish, shellfish and crayfish
• Clams and mussels
• waterfowls
Supply of non-extractive • Flood control
benefits • Biodiversity
• Transportation
• Recreational activites (boating
and swimming)
• Coastal protection etc
on freshwater ecosystems, which are already under pressure due to other destruc-
tive factors. Although aquatic ecosystems are highly resistant to harmful elements,
climate change sometimes destroys much of them by applying double pressure.
7.3.1 Climate Change and Aquatic Environment
Climate change’s ecological consequences rely on the rate and degree of change in
several key environmental factors like temperature, precipitation, and water supply.
These elements actively and indirectly regulate different ecological processes in the
aquatic settings (Fig. 3) (Apostolaki and Samartzis 2019).
Numerous ecological techniques and models in aquatic freshwater and coastal
wetland habitats are regulated by the connection between high carbon dioxide and
temperature and precipitation factors. Temperature directly influences certain impor-
tant life processes. Variations in the thermal regime (e.g. high temperatures, length,
and seasonal temperature change rates) may substantially impact species growth
and generation rates since each aquatic and wetland species is evolved to a specific
temperature range. Global warming will push species’ projected regional ranges
north or higher in mountainous places. Additionally, the southern (or lower) section
of certain species’ geographic ranges would become unfit. The capacity of species
to extend their ranges depends on the number of resources and the ability of species
to travel along dispersion corridors, which vary by type of aquatic Environment
(Apostolaki and Samartzis 2019).
The water volume in an aquatic ecosystem significantly influences biological
systems by analyzing the quantity available and habitat consistency. Locally, precip-
itation and drainage patterns dictate how water volume in marine habitats transfers
through time. Seasonal water depth change similarly affects the kinds of organisms
Fig. 3 Correlation between increased carbon dioxide and environmental drivers of temperature
and precipitation (Solid arrows show direct responses; dashed arrow indicates direct effects of
lesser-known importance)
that can survive in an aquatic habitat. Thus, a shift in the regional Environment that
disrupts the present hydrological system can substantially modify habitat appropri-
ateness for a range of species, resulting in severe ecological changes (Apostolaki and
Samartzis 2019).
7.3.2 Aquatic Ecosystems’ Responses to Climate Change
A. Rivers and Streams
Stream and river ecosystems consist of two components: the aquatic Environment
and the adjacent floodplain or riparian area. Climate change’s expected impact on
these ecosystems depends on how thermal and streamflow regimes differ from current
levels. Regional and local contexts would govern the degree of variance.
Change in temperate
Rising air temperature resulting from global warming will lead directly to increasing
water levels in most lakes and rivers, changing essential ecological processes and
species densities. Streams and canals are shallow, unstable and well-mixed systems,
meaning they transfer heat and oxygen fast with the surrounding environment. They
become colder due to expected climate change, e.g., a 4 °C rise in water temperatures
in current habitats would result in a 680-km northward shift in thermal regimes (422
miles) that would adversely affect aquatic ecosystems (Apostolaki and Samartzis
2019).
148 M. Pouresmaeily
Many aquatic creatures have temperature-dependent lifestyles. Higher water

temperature has been demonstrated to boost growth rates and habitat production.
For example, web-based marine invertebrates (e.g. aquatic insects) may mature faster
and reproduce more frequently. If food resources stay constant, the productivity of
invertebrates in streams and rivers may improve, resulting in different fish food.
Nonetheless, greater water temperatures can increase microbial activity and degrade
organic matter quality, resulting in lower invertebrate and fish food. Additionally,
warmer water has less oxygen dissolved, reducing water consistency for organisms
like invertebrates and fish that need a lot of oxygen.
B. Lakes
Historical data reveal that lake distribution in prior climate change eras varied
substantially when the balance between precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff
varied. Numerous physical and chemical features of lake ecology are governed by
the lake’s temperature, the amount of heat it receives from and provides to the atmo-
sphere, the quantity of nitrogen given by the watershed, and the lake’s water retention
time. Together, these factors influence the lake’s thermal characteristics and dissolved
oxygen supply, altering habitat appropriateness.
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Climate Change and Concurrency
of Extreme Events
Ehsan Modiri
Abstract This study investigates the Spatio-temporal multivariate analysis of

extreme flood events, overcoming some univariate analysis disadvantages. So far,
a vast range of techniques has been expanded and applied in hydrology to perform
univariate analysis of extreme events. Nevertheless, univariate statistics cannot
discover the flood spatial interactions within catchments. Also, the multivariate anal-
ysis of such variables is less performed in this issue because the few applicable
numbers of multivariate models are not suited to represent extreme values that co-
occurred. Due to the constraints of some traditional multivariate techniques regarding
the handling of the dependence structure, limited approaches are appropriate when
the extreme values are likely to co-occur. This chapter investigates the behaviour
of the coincidence occurrence of flood events in both temporal and spatial resolu-
tion. One of the main concerns of this chapter is gaining more knowledge about the
synchronous flood occurrence in upstream sub-basins that can contribute to flooding
risk management due to different spatio-temporal precipitation distributions outflows
in these sub-basins. Moreover, the performance of simultaneous clustering events is
illustrated based on some appropriate and newly proposed clustering methods. This
chapter also explains the ideas behind the high dimensional clustering in concurrency
of floods.
Keywords Floods · Risk management · Clustering · Multivariate analysis · Floods

concurrency · Flood protection
E. Modiri (B)
Department of Hydrology and Geohydrology, Institute for Water and Environmental System
Modeling (IWS), University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany
e-mail: [email protected]
152 E. Modiri
1 Introduction
1.1 Climate Change and Global Warming
Climate change is an alteration in weather patterns occurring over longer scales

and related changes in oceans, ice sheets, and land surfaces. From shifting weather
patterns that threaten agricultural production to ice sheet melting and consequent
catastrophic flooding, climate change impacts are global in scope and unprecedented
in scale (United Nations 2020). Climate change indicates that many natural ans
anthropogenic forces contribute to global warming around the world (Philander and
Philander 2008). However, human activities are estimated to have caused around 1.0
°C rise in global warming above pre-industrial levels, with a presumable range of 0.8–
1.2 °C. Consequently, global warming is expected to gain 1.5 °C from 2030 to 2052
if it continues to increase at the current rate (Masson-Delmotte et al. 2018). Global
warming is generally expected to vary the magnitude and frequency of extreme
precipitation events, leading to frequent and more intense flooding (Dankers and
Feyen 2008). However, in some research, a connection between greenhouse warming
and weather extremes was not confidently expressed (Francis and Hengeveld 1998;
Kundzewicz et al. 2014).
In the current study, the Neckar catchment in the southwest of Germany was
chosen to investigate. This catchment is a tributary of the Rhine river, with an area of
around 14,000 km2 . Figure 1 gives a precise overview of the global warming effects
during the last 55 years on the Neckar catchment in Germany.
As Fig. 1a shows, the positive orientation is vivid since 1961 in the Neckar catch-
ment. The least-squares line and the Theil-Sens slope show almost 1.9 °C temperature
rise in this region, which is higher than the estimated 1.5 °C temperature enhancement
(Masson-Delmotte et al. 2018). Also, Fig. 1b indicates that in addition to a positive
trend in temperature time series, in 1989, the time series is divided into two parts.
This abrupt change is a clear warning sign in this region. The atmosphere’s saturation
vapour pressure increases with temperature; a warmer climate will result in higher
atmospheric moisture content and global mean precipitation. While the troposphere’s
energy budget constrains changes in the mean precipitation, the intensity of extreme
rainfall events is relatively constrained by moisture availability in the atmosphere
(Dankers and Feyen 2008). It seems that the hydrological cycle components impact
each other. Increasing/decreasing one hydrometeorological variable will affect other
parameters in the nexus of atmosphere and biosphere, such as global warming impacts
on flood risk (Lorenzo Alfieri et al. 2017, 2018; Allamano et al. 2009; Bubeck et al.
2019; Schiermeier 2011). However, the earth tries to make a balance for a million
years (Kureethadam 2014).
Climate Change and Concurrency of Extreme Events 153
Fig. 1 a Temperature time series in the outlet of the Neckar catchment, Theil-Sens slope =
0.0356°/year, ordinary least squares = 0.0363°/year, b detected abrupt change point in 1989 in
temperature time series
1.2 Extreme Events: Floods
Floods are among the significant climate-based disasters. In the past decades, reported
annual flood losses have reached tens of billions of dollars, and thousands of people
have been affected each year. These extreme events have led to more than 426
billion euros of losses in Europe between 1980 and 2017 (European Environment
Agency 2019). The maximum estimated annual damage of river floods in China was
recorded in 2010, with a total loss of 51 billion US dollars (World Bank Group 2020).
Pakistan’s monsoon floods in 2010 killed nearly 2,000 people (Syvitski and Brak-
enridge 2013). There are plausible physical mechanisms by which global warming
could alter both the intensity and frequency of some kinds of extreme weather events.
154 E. Modiri
Also, changes in extreme weather events will be irregular, and the detection of trends
will be complicated (Francis and Hengeveld 1998). Climate change can substantially
change human exposure to the flood hazards by increasing the vulnerability zones
(Modiri and Modiri 2016). Also, changes in the magnitude and return period of floods
is mentioned in some research (Alfieri et al. 2015; Bertola et al. 2020; Burn and Whit-
field 2016; Dankers and Feyen 2008; Milly et al. 2002; Modarres et al. 2016; Monirul
Qader Mirza 2002; Petrow and Merz 2009). However, there are considerable uncer-
tainties in the power of this impact between different projections of regional change
in climate (Arnell and Gosling 2016). Furthermore, direct factors responsible for
changes in flood severity and magnitude could result from climate change, but water-
shed surface changes and river engineering can also play a role (Kundzewicz et al.
2013). Therefore, climate change and urbanization can have significant combined
effects on flood damage and optimal long-term flood management (Zhu et al. 2007).
Floods in different parts of the world during 2010–2011 demonstrated all countries
with a distinct level of income struggle to cope with extreme weather events (Wilby
and Keenan 2012). Although the total direct costs of disasters may be most extraordi-
nary for high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) countries, the economic impact is more
extensive for middle-income countries because of their rapidly expanding asset bases
(Sanghi et al. 2010). Therefore, it does not matter where humans live; the floods’
socio-economic losses are inevitable and have significantly increased, mainly driven
by the expanding exposure of assets at risk (Kundzewicz et al. 2014). Another issue
in flood analysis could be the fact of overpopulation. Since decades ago, the popula-
tion has increased in most flood-prone regions, enhancing these areas’ risk (Bouwer
2011, 2013). Therefore, changes in population, development, and protection level
strongly influence flood hazards exposure (Brakenridge et al. 2013).
2 Concurrency of Extreme Flood Events
Floods that simultaneously affect many sites might be a dispute with flood disaster
management systematization. In terms of the definition of concurrency of floods,
simultaneous floods occur in different parts of a region (Diederen et al. 2019; Modiri
2021). So far, the mapping projects have not taken the simultaneous occurrences
of extremes into account, which play a significant role for planers in flood risk
management, flood generating mechanisms, and the triggering system (de Moel et al.
2009).
The investigation of the simultaneous occurrences of flood events is one of the
newest challenges in hydrology. The two definitions of “maximum possible flood”
and “maximum probable flood” were defined based on consideration of the chances
of simultaneous occurrence of the maximum adverse conditions (Bertle 1973; United
Nations 1964). Due to synchronizing flood events on the Rhine, Main, and Neckar
rivers in Germany in the last two decades, enormous loss near the urban regions
took place (Kron et al. 2019; McPhillips et al. 2018). After the flood in 1995 in
the Meuse river in the Netherlands, the government decided to evacuate around
two hundred thousand people living in the floodplain areas (Geertsema et al. 2018).
These experiences showed massive socio-economic impacts on this region. The flood
hazard increased significantly when floods arrived simultaneously in the Brahma-
putra rivers. The high-intensity floods in Bangladesh occurred when any two of
the three major rivers reached peak flow conditions simultaneously (Monirul Qader
Mirza 2003; Monirul Qader Mirza 2002). Analysis of the data showed that the
frequency of simultaneous flooding in all the rivers in Georgia is 15–20 years (Tsivt-
sivadze et al. 2019). Therefore, the depth and extent of floods and associated damages
are extensive when the major rivers simultaneously reach their peaks.
One of the aspects that may lead some regions to have simultaneous flood occur-
rence is urbanization in a large city or land-use change. Significant floods in cities
can trigger simultaneous flooding by river water and inland flooding (Koyama and
Yamada 2020). However, river flooding may be concurrent with storm surge or
extreme tide events (Brakenridge et al. 2013). Yinkang (1996) also mentioned that
the floods in the Huaihe river basin in China have simultaneous and successive occur-
rence. Newton (1983), indicated that the coincidental events of floods are signifi-
cant in designing high-hazard dams or power plants to keep the risk of failure to
zero. Therefore, it is required to investigate the behaviour of concurrent floods in a
catchment or a region.
The proposed research aims to investigate the coincident occurrence of flood
events to understand to what extent floods react together in time and space. More-
over, the appropriateness of clustering methods in multivariate analysis, especially
simultaneous occurrences of floods is also shown.
2.1 Challenges in the Flood Concurrency Analysis
There are two major challenges in simultaneous grouping occurrences of flood events.
The first one is to what extent these floods happen in space and how they react simul-
taneously. The second challenge is: what kind of clustering can handle this problem.
In total, the clustering itself is a big question for hydrologists in multidimensional
issues. Besides, the flood event identification is also one of the main criteria in flood
analysis.
2.1.1 Flood Events Identification
Depending on the chosen method for identifying floods such as Peak Over Threshold
(POT), the annual maxima, or selecting one to five independent peaks per year, some
assumptions will be considered. It means each method of peak identification has its
constraints. For example, POT assumes a threshold that can be different in each area
or even each hydrological application. The annual maxima cannot cover the total
number of costly floods due to the short length of time series, and measurements.
The method of selecting some independent peaks per year covers the problem of
156 E. Modiri
annual maxima, but it still has an assumption to define the independence of two
events. Implementing any assumptions makes the problem simpler and generates
some uncertainties.
In this chapter, all the clustering results are based on the ranked correlation matrix
of the flood data sets using two independent peaks per year. Therefore, the applied
clustering methods work with the correlation of the data. The pairwise correlations
and a sample of mapping this association in the Neckar catchment is illustrated in
Fig. 2.
In Fig. 2a, the reference discharge flow is highlighted in dark red. All the related
sub-catchments which have a strong correlation are shown in light red. The right
part of the catchment relatively has a high correlation with each other. Figure 2b
shows all correlations among flood series, but it is impossible to see a tangible map
with grouped areas without clustering. Therefore, once again, it has been proven that
clustering methods are needed to provide a map that shows the temporal and spatial
relationships among simultaneous floods.
Fig. 2 The correlation of simultaneous occurrence of the most significant floods, a regarding the
reference stations in dark red, b box plot and range of pairwise association among gauges
3 Clustering
Cluster analysis, groups events or observations as objects based on the information

found in the data describing the objects or their relationships. The goal is that the
objects in a group should be similar to another and different from the objects in
other groups. The greater the similarity within a group and the greater the difference
between different groups, the better the clustering quality can be achieved (Steinbach
et al. 2004). One of the vital goals of cluster analysis is a better understanding of
the data. Clustering describes the data structure in an unsupervised machine learning
manner (Kriegel et al. 2009). One of the main cluster analysis applications is to
evaluate exposure levels and vulnerability zones (Modiri and Modiri 2016). The
high dimensional clustering can demonstrate not only floods relationship in time and
space, but also their association can be visible when their magnitudes are clustered.
The resulting cluster in simultaneous flood events can provide risk maps and flood
protection plans, which are appropriate tools for policymakers and planners in such
distinct levels of society relatively urban, rural, or landscape planers.
3.1 Challenges in Clustering
High-dimensional data pose specific challenges to clustering in hydrology. The

volume of computations is increased by increasing the number of dimensions and
rendering traditional clustering algorithms ineffective (Assent 2012). Most clustering
algorithms require user-supplied parameters, such as the desired number of clusters or
a minimum cluster size (Chaimontree et al. 2010). The majority of clustering methods
have been designed for 2D space, such as the traditional k-means or density-based
and spectral clustering. Therefore, finding a convenient clustering method to work
in multivariate analysis is a highlighted point. Each method has specific goals and
subsequently has advantages and disadvantages regarding the concept of the appli-
cation. Despite the high accuracy of a particular method, it should not be selected
for clustering, if it is time-consuming.
The first thing in hydrometeorological clustering might be having a standardized
data set in terms of neglecting the effect of the size of the catchment or the variable
magnitudes. For example, naturally, the outlet of a catchment takes more flow in
comparison to upstream sub-catchments. Therefore, standardizing the input data is
an appropriate way to prevent some errors. In this chapter, we have tried to prevent
writing any mathematical equations so that the reader does not deviate from the
research path.
158 E. Modiri
3.2 AHCT Clustering
In high dimensional approaches in hydrology, the Agglomerative Hierarchical

Cluster Tree (AHCT) method that does not depend on the predefined number of
clusters or any other assumptions is used. It works with a wide range of distance
metrics and is broadly applied in clustering schemes. This grouping variable needs
to have a distance matrix or dissimilarity matrix as an input and can handle both raw
data vectors and correlation matrix of the data (Modiri and Bárdossy 2018).
Although pairwise investigations cannot detect higher-order dependencies, they
may be applicable to be used as an input in clustering in some cases. Hierarchical
clustering utilizes the pairwise analysis and constructs the linkage tree based on
the space between two clusters. Hence, (Davidson and Ravi 2005) presented an
agglomerative hierarchical clustering by some constraints, which improve clustering.
Agglomerative constructs hierarchy in the opposite direction, which makes different
results. This method begins when all objects are away from each other, then two
clusters are merged in each level. It continues until only one remaining object (Sarle
et al. 1991).
The number of clusters can be reached in the dendrogram and verified by different
clustering methods. In general, there are five essential linkage algorithms, including
single, complete, average, weighted, and Ward, that each of which follows a term
of distance (Kaufman and Rousseeuw 2009). For example, the single linkage uses
the smallest distance between objects in two clusters and tries to find the nearest
neighbour. This method’s main advantage is to be flexible in high dimensional space
and does not need to have any assumptions about the number of clusters or threshold.
However, it is possible to set different limitations for this kind of clustering. The
input can also be an initial series of data, correlation, similarity matrix, or any sort
of distance matrix.
Here, in this case (Fig. 3), the dendrogram shows three main clear clusters;
however, in the polar dendrogram let us select four clusters by splitting the dark
blue group into two separate clusters. Therefore, choosing an appropriate linkage
method is critical, but some post hoc tests can find the best possible clustering,
which has to be considered (Modiri and Bárdossy 2021).
3.3 PCA—AHCT Clustering
Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a mature technique that allows constructing

a broad range of similarity measures to grasp the local correlation of attributes and
to find arbitrarily oriented subspace clusters (Kriegel et al. 2009). It is a well-known
dimension reduction technique defined as an orthogonal-linear transformation that
transforms the data into a new coordinate system (Jolliffe 2002). Usually, in discharge
flow time series, the first principal component (PC) explains the high percentage of
data variances. In Fig. 4a, the first three PCs explain more than 85% of this research
Fig. 3 Agglomerative hierarchical cluster tree, a dendrogram form, b polar dendrogram form, and
c mapping AHCT clustering of simultaneous occurrence of floods in the Neckar basin
area’s variance. In this method, the first PCs or corresponding reconstructed series
will not be directly usable as an input of clustering (Modiri and Bárdossy 2019). This
method’s main idea is reconstructing the whole time series based on the first PCs
of the high dimensional data by employing Singular Value Decomposition (SVD).
Then, to remove the impact of seasonal cycles, the two original and reconstructed
time series have to be subtracted. The residual or pure data series will identify flood
events and subsequently find dissimilarity matrix out of new flood series.
The PCA-based procedure of generating residual time series neglects some peri-
odic seasonal terms like an annual and semi-annual cycle and other powerful seasonal
signals in the first PCs and catches the main behavior of the whole dataset. The
residual time series almost does not have these terms, although the peaks’ indices
are still the same as the original time series. However, the residual time series’s
magnitude is smaller than the original one, which is what the method wants. There-
fore, if someone deals with the seasonal components in hydrology, the PCA-AHCT
160 E. Modiri
Fig. 4 Principal component analysis, a explained variances by each PCs, b reconstructed discharge
time series based on first three PCs and the residual time series of simultaneous occurrence of floods
in the Neckar basin (Modiri and Bárdossy 2019)
method can be used for clustering. This method has the disadvantages of demanding
a threshold to select the first PCs as a level of the variance explained, and neglecting
the non-linearity effects between variables due to its linear transformation nature.
3.4 Multidimensional Scale Clustering (Classical MDS)
Multidimensional scaling (MDS) is a visual representation of distances or dissim-

ilarities between sets of objects, and the objects in this chapter are the discharge
measurement across the Neckar catchment. However, they can be colors, faces, map
coordinates, political persuasion (Kruskal and Wish 1978). More similar objects
are closer together on the graph than less similar objects, similar to the clustering
scheme’s goal. The major highlight of this method is interpreting dissimilarities as
distances on a graph. Also, MDS is divided into two parts, including classical and
non-classical. In this study, the classical multidimensional scaling is applied. It can
also serve as a dimension reduction technique for high-dimensional data (Buja et al.
2008). Although MDS has some similarities with the PCA method, it is not the same
in concept and mathematical equations. These two methods are identical if only the
first two PCs will be captured and taken into consideration.
MDS is utilized over a wide variety of disciplines. Indeed, any matrix can be
analyzed with this technique as long as the matrix contains some relational data such
as correlations, distances, multiple rating scales, or similarities (Cox and Cox 2008).
Figure 5 shows the two-dimensional graph of MDS for concurrent floods in the
Neckar catchment. As is clear by randomly dividing the figure into four equal quar-
ters, some data groups are recognizable. Despite its simplicity, this method has
weaknesses, including data grouping that requires implementing other hypotheses
Fig. 5 Multidimensional scaling on the simultaneous flood in the Neckar catchment and Kendall
similarity matrix
162 E. Modiri
and models. Also, the problems of the PCA method are repeated here. Further, in
comparison to the AHCT method, MDS has to have a symmetric and square matrix
to work, while AHCT can be run with all asymmetric matrices. One of the positive
points of this method is the simplicity of implementation and the association between
different flood magnitudes in measuring stations.
3.5 MDS—K-Means Clustering
This method is a manipulation between the famous k-means clustering and multi-
dimensional scaling. These two methods alone cannot solve the problem of high
dimensional data. As mentioned in the previous part, the MDS itself needs to have
another way to cluster data into 2D space. Also, k-means is traditionally defined in
two dimensions (Lloyd 1982) and the combination of these two methods can solve
the mentioned problem.
Figure 6b shows the application of the k-means on MDS. The k-means can be run
for each pair of measurement gauges. The MDS-k-means method solved the above-
mentioned clustering problem. However, due to dimension reduction, the challenge
remains, i.e., what this research wanted? Does it cover all of the issues? The simple
answer is no; it needs to consider the non-linearity and not be sensitive to the object
matrix’s asymmetry.
Fig. 6 a k-means clustering of the floods in two different part of the catchment b Multidimensional
scaling—k-means on the simultaneous flood in the Neckar catchment
3.6 t-SNE Clustering
t-distributed stochastic neighbour embedding (t-SNE) is a machine learning unsu-

pervised technique for visualization developed by Hinton and Roweis (2002) to
obtain the t distribution variant (Maaten and Hinton 2008). It is almost a new
nonlinear dimensionality reduction technique that is well-suited for embedding
high-dimensional data for visualization in a low-dimensional space of two to three
dimensions.
Figure 7 shows the scatter distribution of each gauge. Compared to the MDS
method, both methods are reacting similarly to demanding an additional algorithm
to cluster this 2d space. Due to the use of t-distribution inside t-SNE, this method has
heavier tails. The t-student distributions have a greater chance for extreme values than
normal distributions, hence the fatter tails. Therefore, if we are working with extreme
events, the t-SNE clustering can be a way to cluster data in a high dimensional space.
However, this algorithm has to be run in different climates and has to deal with
distinct hydrometeorological variables.
Fig. 7 t-SNE clustering on the simultaneous flood in the Neckar catchment

164 E. Modiri
3.7 Distribution Based Clustering
According to the high clustering flexibility of the AHCT algorithm in the high dimen-
sional space, the other idea to cluster flood magnitudes is to investigate their distri-
bution and evaluate the similarity among Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs)
of the flood series. It means, with the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test,
the dissimilarity of pair distribution can be computed as an acceptance/rejection,
probability, and the statistics of the test (Modiri and Bárdossy 2020b). Therefore,
this method is the same as the first-mentioned hierarchical method with a distinct
input. CDF of a flood series shows an empirical behaviour of events in a catchment.
The similarity of two CDF’s can indicate the concurrency of floods in terms of their
magnitudes (Fig. 8).
The KS statistics are the maximum absolute difference between the two data
vectors (Massey 1951). By implementing AHCT on the KS statistics matrix, the clus-
tered CDFs, as illustrated in Fig. 8, show that the considerable difference between
clusters, especially between 0.65 and 0.95, is a good sign for verification of resulted
clusters. This method, same as others, has its own disadvantages. The KS statistics
might be a necessary factor for distribution-based clustering analysis, but is it suffi-
cient? The negative point of this coefficient is, it is only a maximum value among
the whole CDF. i.e., it is possible to have a high difference between CDFs, but other
parts of them act similarly. Therefore, distribution based AHCT clustering can be a
good option if the research questions concerning the similarity of empirical CDF.
Fig. 8 The clustered CDFs of simultaneous occurrences of floods in 46 sub-catchment of the

Neckar
3.8 Optimization Scheme Clustering
Optimization scheme clustering is a new sort of clustering to prevent having any

assumptions. This method is needed to have a dissimilarity matrix as an input. The
two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics generates the model input. The Robust
Simulated Annealing (RSA) is a hybrid application of Simulated Annealing (SA)
inside each other. Depending on the layers of optimization, different SA levels have
to be implemented in this clustering scheme (Modiri and Bárdossy 2020a). Same as
other optimization algorithms, RSA optimizes one or several objective functions that
can be a cluster evaluation method such as the Silhouette score (Rousseeuw 1987),
Calinski-Harabasz criterion (Caliński and Harabasz 1974), Gap statistics (Tibshirani
et al. 2001), or Davies-Bouldin criterion (Davies and Bouldin 1979).
RSA is initially splits the data set (in this case, flood series in 46 sub-catchments)
into a random integer number (as the number of clusters). Then, randomly distributes
flood series to each cluster. Inside RSA, SA starts to iterate and randomly shift
one member with another member in other clusters (see Fig. 9a). At each time, an
objective function is calculated and is compared to the previous step. This iteration is
continued until finding the optimum value for the objective function. Subsequently,
Fig. 9 Robust Simulated Annealing technique a the way of changing the number of members
inside clusters b simulated annealing cooling process
166 E. Modiri
Fig. 10 The Silhouette coefficient of a clustering method
the number of members in defined clusters in the last step has to be changed and
the whole procedure is to be repeated to find an optimal objective function and the
number of members inside each cluster (see Fig. 9b). Depending on the layers of
optimization, this scenario should recur (in this case, the number of clusters can be
changed from two to six, concerning the tributaries of the main river in the catchment).
Moreover, a clustering evaluation that depends on the selected algorithm can be
chosen to verify selected clustering methods. In this chapter, the Silhouette coeffi-
cient that is a score that can show the goodness of clustering is briefly explained
(Rousseeuw 1987). It is one of the best cluster configuration validation techniques
(Chaimontree et al. 2010) (see Fig. 10).
The Silhouette ranges between −1 and 1. Naturally, the negative or near zero
scores show the wrong clustering result. The solution to revise this problem is
changing the number of clusters and redo all the clustering to find the optimal Silhou-
ette score. Figure 10 shows the performance of three calculated clusters for each
observation points. The average of all Silhouette coefficients in a cluster represents
the quality of clustering groups.
4 Conclusions
Here is tried to investigate the two major challenges in multivariate analysis. The
first one is the spatiotemporal evaluation of simultaneous flood occurrences, and the
second one is finding an appropriate clustering way for high dimensional data.
Based on the illustration of some clustering stude is in high dimensional space in
extreme events, the author recommends the utilization of these hydrology methods
to work with the measured data. The researchers must take care of choosing the
clustering method concerning the defined problem. The resulting clusters have to be
meaningful in hydrological aspects. i.e., each cluster must show some geophysical,
morphological, and geological features.
It is not easy to realize the best possible clustering algorithm in hydrolog-
ical aspects, and sometimes, selecting the wrong decision is worthless and time-
consuming. In the end, the clustering result might be identical or relatively same as
another method. The crucial point to choose a method is inside the research ques-
tion and related problems. Indeed, there is no exact solution for concurrent flood
analysis in high-dimensional spaces. Many techniques push the boundaries on the
number of dimensions that can be handled. But, challenges remain, and still, some
of them demand to have specific assumptions, which do not agree with the designed
goal in this research. Therefore, there is still much research to do in clustering the
concurrency of flood events. In total, the questions will often remain unclear whether
solutions tackle the same problem or not. It means that it depends on the issues; the
clustering method must be chosen to have some physical meaning in hydrology. The
appropriate choice of a clustering approach proper to the problem should be based on
information about the basic principles on which the particular clustering approach
is grounded. Similarly, the interpretation of clustering results should be guided by
knowing the kinds of patterns a specific algorithm can or cannot find.
This chapter tries to briefly explain the ideas behind the high dimensional clus-
tering in concurrency of the floods. If you would like to have more detailed infor-
mation, please find the author’s publications. Therefore, no additional explanation
has been written regarding the implemented methods in this book. This chapter is a
general overview of the following challenges in clustering concurrent flood events
in the basin-scale analysis; however, the proposed methods may be applied in other
scales.
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4WR003516
Land–Coast–Deep-Sea: Restoration
of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef
in the Era of Mass Ecological Collapse
Hadi El-Shayeb and Farah El-Shayeb
Abstract The rate at which anthropogenic disturbances and climate change are
impacting large earth systems, like the Great Barrier Reef, a 2300 km contiguous
ecological system is surpassing its regenerative capacity with up to half of its coral
reefs succumbed to death. Yet, while coral regeneration campaigns are promoted
by government, industry, and locals, the irony lies in the continued background
development of Queensland’s manufactured landscapes transforming and degrading
the region’s earth system dynamics and ultimately plaguing the Great Barrier Reef.
Therefore, the project transcends the narrative of independent coral ecology study and
dives into a deeper examination of this altered ecological dynamic from unregulated
coal and carbon-intensive mines (contributing to climate change and coral bleaching)
to tree felling and the erasure of woodland eucalyptus forests (at a rate of 1000 rugby
fields a day) in lieu of coastal industrial agriculture and associated poison runoff
into the ocean. The narrative advocates for a new regenerative connection between
land (reforestation of Goonyella Riverside mine for carbon sequestration), coast
(coastal restoration of Haypoint Coal Terminal and rerouted network of waterflows
from industrial agriculture), and deep-sea (regeneration of Molar Reef corals), while
presenting opportunities for human stewardship. The selected sites are emblematic
of the larger regional issues in the region. The ecological story of the Great Barrier
Reef is thus remapped, as an example of a larger earth system dynamics, and seeks to
draw a blueprint of restoration through planning, landscape architecture, and digital
modeling strategies in an era of extreme anthropogenic pressures. It asks, how can
resilience and reprogramming a natural succession of earth system dynamics be
established? And what tools exist across restoration practices, digital realms, and
creative design methodologies to tell this story?
Keywords Earth system dynamics · Coral reef regeneration · Manufactured

landscapes · Bounce-forward resilience · Mine reforestation · Sustainable coastal
agriculture · Restoration
H. El-Shayeb (B) · F. El-Shayeb

John H. Daniels Faculty of Architecture, Landscape, and Design, University of Toronto, Toronto,
ON, Canada
School of Planning, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
172 H. El-Shayeb and F. El-Shayeb
1 Introduction
All healthy ecological systems are in a constant state of flux, yet catastrophic shifts
due to natural or anthropogenic changes can lead to a loss of resilience and the ability
of a system to recover and regenerate over time (Scheffer et al. 2001). The reality is
that much of our present-day development scale and intensity continues to fracture
the dynamics of the earth’s system while threatening its collapse.
The Great Barrier Reef (GBR), in the Coral Sea and off the Coast of Queensland,
Australia, is the largest contiguous ecological system in the world, spanning 2300 km,
boasting over 3000 individual reef systems, and the largest diversity of coral and fish
communities (Randall et al. 2020). The ecosystem services provided by the GBR are
invaluable for fish population habitats and acting as nurseries for spawning, shoreline
protection from storm surges and land erosion, yield of medicinal compounds, and
generating oxygen and absorbing carbon dioxide (Reef Resilience Network 2018;
Deloitte Access Economics 2017).
While reef and coral ecologies are intrinsically adapted to periodic disturbances,
the rate at which extreme weather patterns and anthropogenic disturbances (including
climate change) are impacting the reefs is surpassing the system’s ability to recu-
perate. Up to half of the Great Barrier Reef has succumbed to death due to mass
coral bleaching from ocean warming events in 2016 (30% death) and 2017 (another
20% death) (James 2018). Historically, reef systems in the GBR were subjected to
major disturbances such as disease, bleaching, and severe weather impacts every
27 years, yet this rate has accelerated to every 6 years today, while coral ecolo-
gies can take a minimum of 10 years to naturally recover (James 2018). Coral reef
microhabitats maintain the internal mechanisms to respond to local heat stress after
periodic extreme events; however, the increase in the frequency of thermal stress
(ocean warming) threatens to disable coral’s capacity to recover (Ainsworth et al.
2016; Hofman and Hughes 2017). Furthermore, a UNESCO assessment points to
the likelihood of complete collapse of world heritage coral reef systems by 2100, if
CO2 levels (causing ocean warming) are not drastically reduced (2017).
Although there are widespread regional campaigns that restore coral populations
on the Great Barrier Reef, the irony is that across its land and coasts, Queensland,
Australia boasts some of the world’s most intensive manufacturing landscapes that
are the culprit to facilitating climate change and directly polluting the GBR’s ocean
waters. This ranges from unregulated carbon-intensive mines (including new coal
mine development, a practice that is increasingly becoming outdated) to tree felling
(at a rate of 1000 rugby fields a day) in lieu of coastal industrial agriculture and
associated poison runoff (The Guardian 2018). Coral bleaching and ocean acidifi-
cation are byproducts of increased carbon in the atmosphere and can be attributed
to activities akin to Queensland intensive mining activities. Australia today boasts
50,000 abandoned mines, essentially landscape scars due to minimal regulation on
mining operations and lack of regulation for mines to be filled or cleaned up after
the operation. In addition, over the last decade, Queensland has been felling 314,000
Land–Coast–Deep-Sea: Restoration of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef … 173
ha of trees yearly, many lands of which are converted to industrial agricultural uses
(The Guardian 2018).
As the world’s largest coal exporter, Queensland, Australia, accounts for 35% of
all coal transported to nearby Asian countries (Lynch 2020). In 2019, Queensland,
Australia, exported 226 million tonnes of coal, contributing $52.5 billion to Queens-
land’s economy (Lynch 2020). Queensland continues production as ‘business-as-
usual’, thereby leaving the region with acres of degraded land, abandoned mines,
and a myriad of environmental impacts. On the other hand, coastal industrial agri-
culture has altered the balance of vegetative cover, presenting a myriad of environ-
mental problems (Yapp et al. 2001). The clearance of vegetation has caused exten-
sive soil erosion and acidification (Yapp et al. 2001). Although the natural process
of soil acidity occurs at moderate rates, estimates show that increased mining and
coastal industrial agriculture will rapidly degrade soil under annual pasture regimes
(Yapp et al. 2001). Furthermore, intensively used zones in Queensland, Australia
have decreased the pH level of less than 5.5 for 60% of soils in the region (Yapp
et al. 2001). Moreover, mining has introduced salinization, which can emerge years
and decades after land clearing, affecting water usage for wildlife and neighboring
communities. It is predicted that land affected will treble in the next 50 years (Yapp
et al. 2001)—a concern that threatens our earth system dynamics. In addition, mining
practices have significantly impacted groundwater resources, where artesian bores
have been left to run freely, resulting in the excess of approximately 90% of the water
that is extracted—all of which has been wasted (Yapp et al. 2001).
Furthermore, Queensland, Australia is home to the endangered southern Black-
throated finch, a species that has lost 80% of its former habitat due to mining
activities (Vanderduys and Reside 2020). In addition, temperate eucalypt woodlands
have been almost completely eliminated from the landscape, with approximately 3%
remaining (Yates and Hobbs 1997). Once widespread, this species has been cleared
for agriculture or grazed and converted to pasture (Yates and Hobbs 1997).
Poorly regulated coastal agriculture continues to be a source of algae bloom and
thorn of the starfish outbreaks (COTS) in the Great Barrier Reef Heritage area. Up to
1000 adults can invade a single hectare of the reef during an outbreak and infestation
can destroy over 97% of a reef’s coral population (BBC One 2015). On a similar note,
the Government of Queensland, Australia has recently approved 1 million tons of
sludge to be dumped in the Great Barrier Reef area, causing toxic water quality and
coral choking when sediment settles on the reef. While the literature is extensive on
coral marine biology and reef regeneration, the story requires representation across
a more holistic scale to better understand the complexities between human agency
and the earth system dynamics of the twenty-first century.
Hence, the narrative advocates for a new regenerative connection across land,
coast, and deep-sea. Given the altered earth system dynamics due to anthropogenic
disturbances, it asks how resilience and reprogramming of natural succession of earth
system dynamics can be re-established? What tools exist across restoration practices,
digital realms, and design methodologies to tell this story and reconceptualize it?
This practical research ultimately remaps the Great Barrier Reef’s ecological
story as an example of larger earth system dynamics and seeks to draw a blueprint of
restoration through planning, landscape architecture, and digital modeling strategies

in an era of extreme anthropogenic pressures. This research targets three sites along
a 300 km transect: Goonyella Riverside mine (a 3 km wide coal mine where clean-up
and reforestation strategies are proposed to enhance carbon sequestration and land
reproductivity), Haypoint Coal Terminal (a prominent coastal coal shipping terminal
surrounded by agricultural and grazing lands where a rerouted network of waterflows
and coastal replanting is conceptualized), and Molar Reef (where existing and novel
coral regeneration strategies are proposed). The selected sites are emblematic of
the larger regional issues and a range of existing novel restoration strategies are
explored to facilitate an ecologically resilient, connected, and productive landscape
and ecological dynamic.
2 Literature Review: Ecological Restoration Across Earth

System Dynamics
In order to re-establish a regenerative earth system dynamic across the land, coast,
and deep-sea for the Great Barrier Reef, this section delves into the leading ecolog-
ical restoration practices, as it specifically relates to the degradation and impacts
of industrial activities in Queensland, Australia. This includes mine reforestation,
regenerative agricultural and coastal land restoration, and coral reef regeneration.
2.1 Mine Restoration
The nature and extent of environmental disturbance as a direct result of mining has
polluted air and drinking water, harmed wildlife and habitat, and has permanently
scarred vast areas of land across Queensland, Australia Hobbs (2017). Soil acidi-
fication, weak soil structure, and limited water resources are the reasons why the
landscape has continuously deteriorated over the past few decades Hobbs (2017).
Ultimately, the extent of disturbance in the region has introduced new and chal-
lenging concerns that severely alter the ecology and quality of these sites. Thus,
restoration propositions are required to reverse these impacts and ensure a return of
a healthy ecosystem that re-establishes earth system dynamics across Queensland,
Australia.
Among some of the most comprehensive guides of mine restoration is the Forestry
Reclamation approach by the Appalachian Regional Reforestation Initiative (AARI)
and the US Federal Government. The research and methodology were originally
conceived to reforest the Appalachian forests and coal-rich lands (spanning the states
of Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, Maryland, West Virginia, and North Carolina),
where surface mines operated for more than 2.4 million acres in the region since
1977 (US Forest Services 2016). The methods demonstrate the practicalities of refor-
esting large swaths of degraded lands with high-quality soil, water and air quality,
high productivity hardwood trees to promote high survival and growth rates, and
to bring back the native wildlife to the region. These efforts are thought to coun-
teract historically high seedling mortality, slow growth, poor land reproductivity,
severe erosion, sedimentation, landslides, mass instability and to promote biodi-
versity beyond grasses, shrubs, and non-native species (US Forest Services 2016).
The Forestry Reclamation methodology establishes a framework of five fundamental
steps, including establishing a suitable rooting medium for good tree growth that is
no less than 4 feet [consisting] of topsoil, weathered sandstone, or the best material;
loosely graded [topsoil] to create a noncompacted growth medium; groundcover
species that are compatible with growing trees; two types of trees [consisting] of
early successional species for wildlife and soil stability, and commercially valu-
able crop trees; [and] proper tree planting techniques (US Forest Services 2016).
Through these practical research approaches on the site-specific scale, this method-
ology was successful in creating lands where forest development was rapidly re-
established in the Appalachian region and reoriented toward its natural successional
path and healthy ecological system dynamic. The scale of reclaiming mined land-
scapes was specifically opportune for regrowing severely endangered species like
the (blight-resistant) American Chestnut, which was predominant in the region.
Across the Bowen Basin in Central Queensland Australia, where coal mining
is the predominant operation, there is a tendency to restore mine landscapes with
self-sustaining Eucalyptus woodlands for the subtropical climate (Bell 2001). The
dragline operations of coal mining create a landscape that consists of parallel ridges
with saw-toothed crests that are first rectified in this approach by elevating the land
and recontouring with an undulating topography of slopes less than 20% in order to
control erosion and manage the water flows (Bell 2001). In addition, this approach
also has the following features: overburden that is reshaped into a series of approx-
imately 0.25-ha ponds, the creation of 1–2 m gullies at the base of draining slopes
at the beginning of the revegetation phase, topsoil is used to cover all slopes, and
the vegetative establishment is initiated with aerial reseeding of grasses, shrubs, and
trees (Bell 2001). Annual vegetative surveys reveal the success of this approach;
internally draining slopes maximize the yield of tree biomass and vegetative growth,
vegetative cover leans toward a native eucalyptus mix, established trees have flowers
with viable seeds for secondary colonization, and a wide variety of health indicator
species have appeared including ant colonies, fungal bodies, and organic build-up
(McNamara et al. 1999).
In Acland, Queensland, Australia, directly south of the Great Barrier Reef, a
tertiary study demonstrates the efficacity of returning farmland turned coal mines
back into land use for commercial cattle pasture growth. Bennett et. al’s investiga-
tion took place over a 5-year period and compared the restoration process across
abiotic land reproductivity metrics to 18 unmined lands used for cattle production
in the region (2021). The restorative practice concluded that the high-quality abiotic
properties of the restored mined fell within the range of the unmined lands, the added
topsoil layers supported new root growth; and consequently, supported viable cattle
reproduction (Bennett et. al. 2021). In fact, regenerative cattle grazing can be an inter-
mediary process to restoring mine landscapes toward woodland-pasture landscapes
and then complete woodlands through active management and a seasonal rotation of
grazing to promote select area tree growth (Uytvanck and Verheyen 2014). Livestock
feces can also act as a rich topsoil nutrient for the establishment of a healthy topsoil
mix (Pasture Project 2021).
In contrast, the development and growth of healthy fauna tend to be an extreme
challenge when it comes to restoring degraded landscapes according to Cristescu
et al., who reviewed the findings of 71 publications on fauna recolonization across
Australia (2012). Species density and richness tend to be significantly lower on
rehabilitated landscapes like mines, and even more so when native species were
grown (Cristescu et. al. 2012). The irony is that while the rehabilitation of degraded
lands after mining is comprehensively understood, there continues to be a significant
number of cases specific to the Australian context where adequate rehabilitation is
neglected (Lamb et al. 2015). This speaks to the importance of adequate restoration
practices as eluded to in the US Forestry Reclamation approach, and to re-establishing
a healthy ecosystem dynamic for carbon sequestration opportunities.
Given the extent of environmental disturbance and novelty of mined landscapes,
and the challenges associated with re-establishing holistic ecosystems with their
native physical and biophysical, Hobbs (2017) propose hybrid (reversibly different)
or novel (irreversibly different) ecosystems. The idea adopts radically different
natural characteristics in order to adapt to the newly created environmental condi-
tion, yet be able to promote ecological services (within feasible management regimes
and a rational mapping approach of a potential new landscape composition). This
approach rationalizes the safety, stability, and new ecological functioning of a rehabil-
itated landscape and explores mine reclamation alternatives as a means to incentivize
restoration altogether.
2.2 Industrial Agricultural and Coastal Landscape

Restoration
The intensity of forest felling in Queensland, Australia is incurring a chain reaction

of ecological degradation from the loss of significant carbon sequestration capacity,
erodible landscapes with sediment runoff and contributing to dryer climates and the
wider climate crisis (Yates and Hobbs 2000). After forest cover is felled, one of the
predominant uses in Queensland, particularly along the coast, is industrial agricul-
ture (Yates and Hobbs 1997). The establishment of woodland forest vegetation is
critical to enhancing biodiversity and preventing dryland salination. Across a study
examining Eucalyptus woodland regeneration over 519 agricultural sites in Victoria,
Australia, the factors that reduced the probability of regeneration included intensive
past land use (cultivation), regular livestock grazing, increasing distance to remnant
trees, and high cover exotic annual vegetation (Dorrough and Moxham 2004). The
study concluded that the success of natural regeneration of forest cover is dependent
on active management approaches, including the prohibition of grazing or intermit-
tent grazing regimes, which significantly increases the likelihood of forest cover
regeneration (Dorrough and Moxham 2004). Understanding the select factors to
increase the rate of success of transforming past agricultural lands to forest canopies
provides increased opportunities for proper environmental planning.
While landscape clearing of woodlands and degradation for grazing and other
agricultural processes are extremely well documented, there is a lack of literature
exploring woodland regeneration and restoration techniques as it relates to diversity
structure and function (Yates and Hobbs 1997).
Agricultural intensification, the same kind observed along the coast of Queens-
land, dramatically alters and homogenizes the landscape, endangering biodiversity,
increasing soil degradation, and water body salinization (Krebs et al. 1999; Hendrickx
et al. 2007; Billeter et al. 2008). This loss of landscape character includes the degra-
dation of wetland landscapes along coastal Queensland, Australia, which are well
understood across their human and wider biological functioning. In the context of
wetland restoration, Moreno-Mateos and Comin (2010) develop an objective frame-
work for restoring wetland systems, which can guide the restoration of Queensland
coastal landscape in its extensive scale. This methodological framework includes
identification of local needs of a wetland, the scale of the created wetland rela-
tive to its objective, to take up sub-catchment, catchment, or regional water flows,
understanding conflicts and capabilities where the restoration or creation of wetlands
serves multiple purposes, the creation of a general strategy based on aforementioned
priorities (Moreno-Mateos and Comin 2010). While it requires a higher level of
active management, the preferred strategy for developing wetland objectives is a
multi-pronged approach that would promote heterogeneity in the landscape and
provide multiple services like water flow take up and biodiversity replenishment
(Moreno-Mateos and Comin 2010).
In a landscape planning study across regions of South Sweden, areas that suffer
intense coastal eutrophication due to agricultural practices results from scenario
modeling proved that the changes in agricultural practices (tunning, time of fertil-
ization and ploughing, and changed crop cultivation) have the opportunity to reduce
nutrient loads into the sea by 30% in comparison to 5% by simply recreating wetlands
(Arheimer et al. 2004).
A diversified agroecological system approach, an anti-thesis to the existent and
predominant industrial agricultural practices of input-intensive crop monocultures,
industrial-scale feedlots, and widespread fertilizer use, can reverse the effects of
degrading landscapes into a more long-term fertile, healthy, biodiverse agricultural
landscape (Frison 2016). The ensuing fundamental change of the land use practice
will surely have reproductive effects on all adjacent landscapes and in the context of
this chapter, the Great Barrier Reef.
With regards to the best management approach for mitigating the loss of agri-
cultural pollutants to streams, the abundance of riparian buffers and manure storage
structures proved to be the most effective year-round strategy for reducing nutrient
concentrations in riverine systems (Pearce and Yates 2017). Tile drainage and other
managerial BMPs are secondary methods for reducing nutrient runoff (Pearce and
Yates 2017).
To date, there is a dearth in the literature on sustainable coastal agricultural prac-
tices as it relates to climate change and one of the main issues behind its practicalities
is farmer knowledge. Therefore, the inclusion and participation of farmers in climate
change coastal landscape policy setting (specifically as it relates to coastal agricul-
ture) is necessary to tether direct practical action (Tharani Gopalakrishnan et al.
2019).
In response to the degrading water quality from land-based pollutant sources
specifically as it relates to the intensive agricultural practices, there are two major
Great Barrier Reef plans that set out ambitions to decrease these pollutant sources.
The Reef 2050 Long-Term Sustainability Plan sets out that “over successive decades
the quality of water entering the Reef from broadscale land use has no detrimental
impact on the health and resilience of the Great Barrier ‘Reef’, along with managing
associated targets for water quality and land catchment management” (The State of
Queensland and Commonwealth of Australia, 2003; Reef Water Quality Protection
Plan Secretariat, 2009, 2013b). The Reef Water Quality Protection Plan (2003) is
specific in its provision of a collaborative and strategic approach for water quality
improvement through best management programs and voluntary methods and incen-
tives farmers can take to improve water quality (Queensland Government 2015c;
Department of the Environment 2015c). However, as of 2014, there continue to be
poor trends to water quality management, including (i) increased uptake of BMPs, (ii)
continued overall loss of wetlands and riparian areas, (iii) modeled… reductions in
terrestrial pollutant loads entering the GBR, and (iv) continued poor condition of the
inshore marine environment (Queensland Government 2015a, b). While land-based
pollution reduction strategies are well understood, such as better surface and erosion
control during grazing and reduction of excess applications of nitrogen use during
sugarcane, cotton, and banana plantations, the socio-economic factors of altering
current practices to best management practices are the challenge.
Kroon et al. (2016) make several comprehensive recommendations for future
directions regarding land-based pollution control methods, including spatial and
policy implications. These include identifying management practices and/or land
uses with acceptable pollutant export rates; having effective incentives for the adop-
tion of these practices and/or land uses; combining different policy instruments to
reduce diffuse pollution from agricultural land uses [given the scale and complexity
of the issue]; harmonization of multisectoral policies to protect GBR water quality
[given the fact that there are 26 federal and Queensland government acts]; and a
transformation all together of the existing land uses into more productive landscapes
as well as the integration of modern agricultural products (Kroon et al. 2016).
2.3 Coral Reef Regeneration
Reef systems and coral community responses vary significantly depending on the
intensity, and time-scale of disturbances, and while reef fragility has been exhibited
on the human time scale, over millions of years, coral reef systems have demonstrated
robustness to disturbances (Hughes 1989; Brown 1997). Ecological theories attribute
the diversity of corals in a reef system to recurrent disturbances that create commu-
nities in various stages of recovery (Connell 1978). Furthermore, recent studies point
to the coral capacity of acclimatization and adaptation to rapid ocean temperature
changes, specifically with heat-tolerant coral colonies forming partnerships after
heat events (Baker 2001, Kenkel and Matz 2016). On the topic of coral commu-
nity recovery, Gilmour et al. (2016) highlight the capacity for coral reefs to naturally
recover if isolated from chronic anthropogenic disturbance after observing an isolated
reef on the northwest coast of Australia that had undergone severe bleaching and
close to total coral cover loss. The surviving corals grew to maturity and effectively
reproduced returning the system to existing conditions (Gilmour et al. 2016).
The reality that global coral reef systems face a range of chronic anthropogenic
disturbances from climate change and ocean warming to nutrient and sediment
runoff polluting ocean waters cannot be ignored on a present time scale for fear
of complete ecological collapse. Rinkevich (2008) argues that the reefs’ future is
centered on the omnipresent acceptance of restoration, an ‘active’ management
instrument. The Society for Ecological Restoration International Science and Policy
Working Group (2004) defines restoration as ‘the process of assisting the recovery
of an ecosystem that has been degraded, damaged, or destroyed… [and] attempts to
return an ecosystem to its historic trajectory’. Akin to the forest silviculture program
and taking precedence from terrestrial forestation, the coral gardening strategy repre-
sents a recent approach to coral species regeneration where on/off-site coral nurseries
are formed and species are transplanted to degraded sites for restoration (Epstein et al.
2003). This practice revolves around an active management and restoration process
by which an establishment of large-scale seedling, transplant, and decolonization
process for large-scale reef degradation can be facilitated (Rinkevich 2008).
Similarly, Bostrom-Einarsson et al. (2018) conducted a comprehensive review of
319 coral restoration studies and summarized the leading restoration methods into
ten approaches outlined in Table 1. He found that the majority of methods involve
some sort of coral fragmentation or transplantation of coral fragments (70%). They
also realize four major conclusions, including (i) coral survival is high; (ii) survival
rates and growth are depending on location and species type and therefore restoration
approach and materiality need to be dependent on project objectives; and (iii) most
projects tend to be small scale (less than 1 ha) and over a short time frame period
with few strategies exhibiting characteristics to be scaled (with the exception of coral
larvae dispersal) (Bostrom-Einarsson et al. 2018). The fourth conclusion, like other
ecological restoration methodologies, is the fact that coral restoration suffers from a
lack of clear objects (as a result of state and local objective overlapping), appropriate
Table 1. A compilation of active reef restoration techniques (Bostrom-Einarsson et al. 2018)

Intervention Definition Other common terms
Direct transplantation Transplanting coral colonies Coral tipping,
or fragments without post-disturbance repair
intermediate nursery phase
Coral gardening Transplanting coral Population enhancement,
fragments with an asexual propagation
Coral gardening—Nursery phase Transplanting coral
fragments with an
(used to describe case studies
that only detail the nursery
phase)
Coral gardening—Transplantation Transplanting coral Outplanting
phase fragments with an
intermediate nursery phase,
including outplanting
juveniles raised in the
nursery (used to describe
case studies that only detail
the transplantation phase)
Coral Transplanting
gardening—Micro-fragmentation micro-fragments from
massive corals, with an
Substratum addition—Artificial Adding artificial structures Other terms: Engineered
reef for purposes of coral reef structures
restoration
Substratum stabilization Stabilizing substratum to
facilitate coral recruitment or
recovery
Substratum enhancement—electric Enhancing artificial substrata
with an electrical field or
direct current
Substratum enhancement—Algae Enhancing substrata by
removal removing macroalgae
Larval enhancement Using sexually derived coral Larval propagation, sexual
larvae (often produced from propagation
eggs and sperm in in situ
flow-through facilities) to
release at the restoration site,
after intermediate holding
phase
monitoring, reporting for adaptive learning, and the result of these compounded
findings, a poorly designed project (Bostrom-Einarsson et al. 2018) (see Table 1).
While the above research is seminal in understanding the GBR condition, coral
recovery science, and restoration efforts, this restoration and design research effort
takes one particular study as the breaking ground for exploring the Great Barrier
Reef’s systemic resilience. Hock et al. (2017) identify 100 reefs accounting for 3%
of the Great Barrier Reef that are exhibiting characteristics of healthy systems and
capable of promoting recovery located in areas that are cool, protected from crown-
of-thorns starfish predation, and well connected to other reef systems through ocean
currents with the capacity to supply larvae (fertilized eggs). While the study claims
these connected reefs maintain a level of resilience that may help [the Great Barrier
Reef] bounce back from disturbances (Hock et al. 2017), this research proposal
underscores bounce forward resilience (transformation or the capacity to renew and
re-organize in the face of disturbance) as the normative ideal (Meerow et al. 2016).
Realizing the scale of the Great Barrier Reef and extrapolating these findings
further points to a clear conclusion that while many of these restoration methods
explored can help on a small local scale (including as public education opportuni-
ties), a larger scaling of coral regeneration is critical. The larval enhancement and
dispersal approach lends itself to that opportunity and especially when considering
recent technological developments and research like drones, Larval Bots developed
by researchers at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) to deliver coral
larvae to reefs for reseeding. The ongoing concept and trial entail capturing coral
larvae during the annual spawning event of corals, rearing the larvae for several
days, before releasing them en masse when they are ready to settle through drone
operation on damaged reefs (Techrepublic 2019). The second set of drones is also
using advanced camera technology beyond the human eye to monitor high-definition
changes to coral health in the GBR (Scott 2021). However, the advances are not
beyond their challenges, including the limited amount of coral spawn, identifying
the most suitable reef resettlement locations requiring the use of artificial intelligence,
and instantaneous computer vision to provide relative independence for widespread
drone restoration (Techrepublic 2019). The combination of small-scale restoration
and large-scale action has the opportunity of bridging public education and any gaps
between management actions at the local and state management levels.
3 Methods
The project methodology merges layers of socio-ecological analysis across the land,
coast, and reef systems, through both literature and analytical mediums, in order to
develop a pragmatic and novel approach for the landscape restoration of the Great
Barrier Reef. More specifically, the methodology takes form across four phases; (i) a
literature and policy review as outlined above of restoration practices for the project
regional contexts, (ii) a field study of select sites to guide the scale and design thinking
approach, (iii) GIS analysis and 3D modeling of landscape sites to acutely understand
Fig. 1 Research methods hierarchy
spatial dynamics and connections, and (iv) a pragmatic design approach reorienting
landscape uses and facilitating socio-ecological resilience. The project also uses an
overarching story-telling approach to present landscape system connections and the
severity of the issues to a wider public. Ultimately, the aim of this design restoration
proposal is to not only establish a baseline of meaningful restoration approaches that
holistically engage with biotic and abiotic for the Great Barrier Reef but also explore
a methodological presentation medium that embodies the time-sensitive dynamism
of landscape processes (see Fig. 1).
3.1 Literature Review
A high-level literature review first examines the landscape practices that continue
to impact the Great Barrier Reef, a connected story across land-intensive coal mine
activities, coastal industrial agriculture, and then bleaching events as a result of
ocean warming on the Great Barrier Reef. This spatial connection begins to establish
an understanding of scale and restoration interventions that are needed to facilitate
socio-ecological resilience, particularly for reclaiming mine landscapes, reforesting
coastal landscapes, and shifting industrial agricultural practices to sustainable means
while taking into account water flows, and then regeneration of coral reefs on a large
scale. A more comprehensive review as outlined in the section prior delves into
these restoration practices and breaks down their capacity to create a more resilient
ecological system. The restorative techniques also conceptualized on a degree of
stewardship opportunities for a wider public engagement that realizes the scale of
the issue. And while the overall intent is to produce solutions on a larger and holistic
system scale, the pragmatic approach layers categorize these restoration practices as
modular time-based design interventions.
3.2 Field Approaches
The secondary phase of the design research relied on field studies as a means of
documenting landscape typologies from land, coast, to oceanic reef sites. The land-
scape architecture (design thinking) discipline inherits a rich tradition of field studies
that stem from the ecological sciences. The method utilized photography, underwater
videography, and drawing, to document and communicate a narrative of ecological
change and to gain an appreciation of scale. The sites examined included sugarcane
agricultural fields, Daintree national Rainforest (to build a repertoire of woodland
and tropical species in some of the local regions), and a couple of underwater reef
sites, including Agincourt and Flynn reefs. This background documentation was
used twofold; as a means to understand scale, material, and biotic life for design
restoration proposals (the tangible components); as well as to advance opportuni-
ties for public mobilization and designs that would increase access and legibility
in the protection of reef sites and climate mitigation. The collected photographic
imagery, particularly of underwater reef landscapes, was used throughout the public
communication piece of this project to connect the audience, create an experience,
and support the storytelling method of the project (described as the last overarching
method).
3.3 2D and 3D Data Analysis
The tertiary phase of the research builds a spatially analytical framework for the
existing context through landscape characterization and GIS mapping. This process
investigated the most pressing anthropogenic impacts on land and in water to the
Great Barrier Reef in Queensland, Australia, as well as exploring reef resilience
characteristics. Following the three themes and spatial areas of study, land, coast, and
deep-sea, the primary layer focused on understanding mining processes (particularly
coal mines) and extraction in Queensland, Australia. This included the layering of
all types of mines in the region, the type of resources being extracted, transportation
lines, ports, and shipping data among other relevant digital information. The second
atlas map is built on areas that have been cleared of forest for the past three decades,
existing agricultural uses, erosion-prone areas, areas of high chemical concentration
in the ocean, and reefs with COTS outbreaks. The third mapping exercise focused on
deep-sea connections and explored natural flow patterns, such as reef connectivity and
larvae dispersal in order to generate new ways of design thinking for the restoration
of dying reefs. This also included the 100 reefs identified by Hock et al. (2017)
as exhibiting characteristics of healthy systems and capable of promoting recovery
in local areas as well as reef areas that are under threat due to human uses and
climate impacts. The dynamic change and flux of ecologically valuable landscapes,
particularly those that are rapidly degrading due to climate change, require a deeper
level of understanding (as invisible and visible flows and processes) if landscape
design practices intend to offer meaningful solutions. A University of Pennsylvania
landscape architecture symposium, Simulated Natures organized in 2015, is used
as precedence and explores these ideas in light of new computational developments
through flows (modeling the invisibles), agents (designing for the invisibles), and
indicators (revealing the invisibles). Therefore, the reef atlas aims to map these flows
as a means of enhancing the capacity for resiliency (see Figs. 2, 3, and 4).
These atlas maps were all curated and represented as dynamic map drawings as
opposed to static imagery through the use of time-sensitive data and animations in
the public presentation. The drawings on the regional scale were used to represent
the larger anthropogenic issues to the Great Barrier Reef from the amount of carbon-
intensive mines, tree felling areas, to intensive agricultural coastal lands.
Fig. 2 Mining and extraction flows

Fig. 3 Industrial coastal agriculture and tree felling rates in Queensland Australia
Three selected landscape sites (later discussed in the proposal section of this
chapter) are further exploded into 3D models using digital elevation data in the design
program Rhinoceros for a high-definition spatial analysis. For example, in the context
of mine and coastal landscape restoration, this enabled topographic, water flow, and
sunlight analysis on the landscape using additional scripting plug-ins, and to then be
able to reshape and transform landscapes and other built forms according to applied
restoration practices. The analysis is then re-applied onto the designed landscapes to
evaluate the restorative changes.
3.4 Pragmatic Design Restoration Approach and Storytelling
Through a landscape architecture and regional planning lens, the proposal is ulti-
mately shaped as a pragmatic design exercise. This means creatively balancing all
of the above research findings across literature review, field studies, and landscape
data analysis and generating design changes across the Great Barrier Reef landscape
and its associated coastal and land-based practices. This is an iterative process and
involves drawing and modeling to achieve a socio-ecologically sensitive approach.
Fig. 4 Ecological flows of reef resilience
Finally, given its design nature, the project reveals these interconnected and
complex landscape connections of the Great Barrier through a means of storytelling
during a public exhibition presentation. The presentation is narrated through the lens
of a resource extraction corporation (responsible for mining, logging, and industrial
agriculture) having been made responsible by a high court for the destruction of
the Great Barrier Reef and responsible for the restoration from land, coast, to deep-
sea of damaged landscapes in order to save reef ecologies. This curation method
heightened the experience of the audience and revealed this project to be about the
reality of anthropogenic disturbance and more than a singular coral ecology study.
The presentation method also acknowledges the governance, political, and corporate
structures at play, that are necessary to be engaged with, should restoration proposals
have a meaningful impact. Animations throughout the presentation engaged the time
component of proposed interventions and added a projective element to the design
restoration (see Figs. 5 and 6).
Fig. 5 Mining landscapes on Queensland Australia
Fig. 6 Coastal industrial farming and reef landscapes
4 Restoring a Manufactured Landscape and Toward

a Natural System Dynamic of the Great Barrier Reef
In summary, intensive mining and industrial agricultural disturbances are impacting

the development of the Great Barrier Reef, causing its collapse. GIS mapping and
analysis show that these activities continue to harm this ecological system, ultimately
affecting the earth system dynamic in Queensland, Australia.
The ecological restoration of the Great Barrier Reef involves necessary intercon-
nected operations from Queensland’s mining landscape, coastal intensive agricul-
tural uses, and finally coral ecology regeneration. Three sites are selected: Goonyella
Riverside Mine, Hay Point Coal Terminal, and Molar reef, across a 300 km transect,
which are emblematic of the larger regional issues in this landscape to propose alter-
native restorative configurations for an ecologically productive identity via existing to
novel landscape architecture and design restoration strategies. There is an attempt at
communicating design representation as processes and systems over time in contrast

to static architectural representation through iterative images that capture the nuances
of regional geographies and dynamic landscapes.
4.1 Reclamation and Reforestation of Goonyella Riverside

Mine
There is a strong irony to the fact that while millions and billions are spent on coral
reef restoration campaigns, the Australian Government continues to permit and allow
carbon-intensive coal mine development within a few hundred kilometers of the Great
Barrier Reef catchment area (an increasingly becoming outdated source of energy),
and among other mine extraction processes. This is the culprit that is contributing
to climate change and ocean warming, causing bleaching and deteriorating the coral
ecologies across a 2300 km span. This does not discount the intensity of port devel-
opment and shipping navigational channels that continue to tear through the GBR
catchment area.
Therefore, the primary focus is on the Goonyella Riverside coal mine in Queens-
land, Australia, with a depth of 100 m where a reforestation strategy is proposed.
The idea is to return the landscape to its historic natural trends and also opera-
tionalize to sequester carbon and support climate mitigation that is impacting the
Great Barrier Reef as well as counteract the rates of tree felling in the region. The
primary strategy toward returning the mine condition to its ecologically productive
state involves the topographic manipulation and fill given the mine’s sharp ridges
and terrace-like stepping as a result of mine operations. The secondary purpose of
this strategy is to promote new microclimate conditions through slope adaptations
and waterbed creation, by which biodiversity can prevail. The primary fill to cover
up existing rock faces comes in the form of dredge material from shipping channels
in the GBR heritage area presenting a novel opportunity. Currently, sludge and other
dredge materials are being dumped into the Great Barrier Reef region covering and
choking coral reefs.
The proposal explores digital techniques of analyzing topographic formation in
order to optimize planting schemes and desired microclimate creation through novel
3D modeling and topographic analytical tools. Variables including height, slope,
and degree of solar exposure based on the region’s weather data dictated the type
of microclimate being created and necessary for specific woodland forest types,
native to the region and ultimately serving as a method of analysis for optimizing
topographic forms (see Fig. 7).
In order to create the necessary topsoil conditions for a productive landscape,
regenerative cattle grazing is programmed with a layer of hay-mulch added onto the
new land. This begins to remove pressure from coastal industrial farming as well as
initiate topsoil formation through feces decay.
Fig. 7 Restorative strategies and microclimate development for relic coal mine landscapes
Furthermore, there can be an opportunity to engage public stewardship with the

creation of research center huts that have open public access and that house seeds
of a new planned forest. A citizen science approach can generate opportunities for
landscape restoration monitoring, further planning, and public education for the
acceptance and understanding of large-scale restoration.
4.2 Restoration of Coastal Hay Point Coal Terminal
The spatial examination of the industrial farming front reveals an artificial patterned
landscape paralleling kilometer long-streams and coastal ocean landscape with no
to minimal buffers. The select site, Hay Point Coal terminal, is a key node for coal
shipment and is surrounded by cattle grazing operations.
The regenerative process is initiated by analyzing the water flow patterns
through landscape digital modeling. This knowledge begins to inform the spatial re-
organization of manufactured coastal landscape patterns in order to mitigate poison
runoff into the Great Barrier Reef Heritage area. New embankments are subsequently
proposed (using shipping channel dredge material as an opportunity) and reroute the
agricultural runoff flows from river and ocean zones (see Fig. 8).
On the newly formed slopes, native coastal tree species from red mangroves
to Omreau bottle trees are introduced to stabilize the topography and counteract
tree felling for agricultural land use conversion. Furthermore, an observatory tower
is proposed to deck over this new landscape where farmers and locals are able to
visualize new land patterning and the beginning of a rerouted network of water flows.
The new undulating embankment wraps around the coastal site like a necklace and
offers a new connected path system for public engagement.
As part of a spatial policy scheme, the proposal advocates to work with local
farmers and to initiate holistic agricultural management which includes the anal-
ysis of soil mediums in order to promote appropriate agriculture plantations (sugar-
cane versus cotton native to the region), and ultimately to minimize chemical water
leaching potential. Holistic management also includes seasonal grazing where ground
Fig. 8 Coastal water flow analysis and re-configuration for sustainable water drainage and runoff
capture
Fig. 9 Restorative coastal landscape strategies, regenerative grazing, and tree coastal reforestation
cover is not completely decimated to promote stabilization of coastal lands from

runoff and increase carbon sequestration (Fig. 9).
Using the existing agricultural land use patterns and modeled water flows, key
drainage lines are designed approximately following the landscape contours, and
ultimately laying the foundation for a new spatial restructuring of industrial agricul-
ture patterns. As a tertiary layer to this spatial restructuring that connects with the
key lines and creates an ocean buffer, fresh and saltwater wetlands are re-introduced
in lieu of the existing coal tailing ponds on site. The layering of these landscape
architectural strategies proposes a healthier flow pattern.
The coastal restoration chapter is concluded with the introduction of new farming
opportunities, coral farming, along the existing 2 km coastal bridge that originally
facilitated coal shipping on site. Both existing and novel farming opportunities are
explored; from electrically conductive steel meshes, coral fragmentation on floating
tree units that are capable of regenerating coral species up to 50 times faster, down to
hand-size tetrapods where coral larvae are seeded, and then transported off-site for
planting. Along the bridge and through the ocean’s clear waters, farmers and locals
are able to claim new agency to these artificial and regenerative processes.
4.3 Regeneration of Coral Ecologies on Molar Reef
With the restructuring of Queensland, Australia’s manufactured landscape system,

coral regeneration on-site begins to be more impactful. While corals have a tremen-
dous capacity to recover after disturbance, the rates at which disturbances have been
impacting the reef system are irreversible and require adaptive management strate-
gies to facilitate a resilient trajectory. The idea for coral regeneration is to engage
on an immediate present time scale where first a spatially and technologically inte-
grated slew of sensors provides feedback of coral reef conditions. Installed under-
water camera domes and drones are proposed to provide time-sensitive imagery of
bleaching events as well as COTS outbreaks. Sea surface and depth sensor products
monitor both water and temperature quality through the use of existing technologies,
including chemical composition, turbidity, light, and radiation intensity sensors.
The proposal begins to capitalize on reef resilient capacity by rearing coral larvae
in nets during annual coral spawning events and using this natural reproduction as a
catalyst for greater regeneration. This is where Hock et al. (2017) study identifying
100 reefs, accounting for 3% of the Great Barrier Reef that are exhibiting character-
istics of healthy systems and capable of promoting recovery can be operationalized.
One of the main criteria is the high connectivity to other reef systems through ocean
currents with the capacity to supply larvae (fertilized eggs). Preserving these reefs
sites with stronger protection measures and then collecting, rearing, and dispersing
their larvae is a clear opportunity toward natural regeneration across the Great Barrier
Reef region. Reared larvae are then released on dead or dying reefs based on collected
sensor data speeding up the regeneration process via underwater drones (technology
currently being prototyped by the Queensland’s University of Technology). Simi-
larly, a second set of drones is programmed to target COTS outbreaks and release a
lethal injection. While smaller target interventions like individual coral plot planting
or the use of tetrapods may be effective for individual reef sites, the reality is, there
is a need for scaling of restoration methods in order to effectively regenerate reef
systems across the 2300 km span, like the use of novel drone technology for larvae
dispersal. And a targeted approach of restoring reefs that are most connected to others
via larvae reproduction, first, is in order to facilitate natural coral succession.
5 Conclusion
The rate at which anthropogenic disturbances and climate change are impacting
many earth systems like the Great Barrier Reef is surpassing its regenerative capacity.
The design restoration research critically explores the dynamics between the time-
sensitive ecological processes, and remaps the landscape story to represent holistic
impacts, ultimately asking, what are practical yet meaningful restorative approaches
for regenerating massive, degraded landscapes like the Great Barrier Reef? How can
we better engage with biotic and abiotic earth system dynamics through restoration
practices, digital tools, and design methodologies?
The narrative advocates for a new regenerative connection between land (refor-
estation of carbon-intensive coal mines contributing to climate change), coast (spatial
restructuring of coastal industrial agricultural lands polluting the GBR catchment
area), and deep-sea (regenerative approaches for coral ecologies that are collapsing
primarily due to ocean warming). The selected sites are emblematic of the larger
regional issues in the region and are ultimately what is facilitating the degradation
of the Great Barrier Reef. A library of restoration practices is collected by which a
range of existing to novel landscape architecture strategies are layered to facilitate an
ecologically resilient, connected, and productive landscape. The restoration strate-
gies are mapped, drawn, and analyzed using 3D design modeling methodologies in
order to spatialize and scale action plans.
Although, significant time and human resource investment are required at the
outset of proposed restoration processes, justly designed restoration plans will
promote a natural succession and resilience across the Great Barrier Reef and its
associated landscapes. While on the one hand, the design philosophy is to restore
and reconnect these massive landscapes on a holistic scale, the concept pushes for
collective reflection on past action as well as agency on the present to future conditions
through public access and legibility of proposed design interventions and real-time
monitoring.
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International Climate Change
Agreements: Setting a Global Agenda
and Calling for Action
Sirisha Indukuri
Abstract The threat of climate change is a problem of the global commons and has
brought together the international community to devise mechanisms for addressing
it. The present chapter traces the trajectory of international conventions, frameworks
and agreements that have set forth an agenda for global cooperation on climate
change. The United Nations serves as an umbrella organisation with its key institu-
tions at the forefront of propelling climate action today. The Vienna Convention and
the Montreal Protocol, in the 1980s, were met with success in implementation and
hailed as benchmarks of international collaboration. The Rio or Earth Summit of
1992 led to the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change, which holds a Conference of the Parties every year. The most significant
climate agreements to have resulted from the several Conferences of the Parties, are
the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and the 2015 Paris Agreement. The push lent to the climate
agenda by international agreements has paved the way for the emergence of regional
groups, non-UN and non-state groups, which are slowly taking forward the mantle
of climate action. The chapter further discusses factors that influence the course of
international climate agreements. Despite such influence and resulting concerns, the
existing global alliance is inevitable and essential to address the looming anthro-
pogenic challenge of climate change. In conclusion, the chapter asks if there is a
need to think of a different and alternative paradigm to see the world make a closer
run to achieve its climate targets.
Keywords Kyoto Protocol · Paris Agreement · COP · International initiatives ·

Climate action
Abbreviations
AEBR Association of European Border Regions

AR1 First Assessment Report
S. Indukuri (B)
Adjunct Faculty, Engineering Staff College of India, Hyderabad, India
196 S. Indukuri
CBDRC Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabil-

ities
CDM Clean Development Mechanism
CER Certified Emissions Reduction
COP Conference of the Parties
FOGAR Forum of Global Associations of Regions
GEF Global Environment Facility
GHG Green House Gas
ICLEI International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives
INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency
JI Joint Implementation
LULUCF Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
MEF Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate Change
MRV Monitoring Reporting Verification
NAMAs Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
NAPAs National Adaptation Programmes of Action
NDC Nationally Determined Contribution
NGO Non-Government Organisation
Nrg4sd Network of Regional Governments for Sustainable Development
OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
OLAGI Latin-American Organisation of Intermediate Governments
PPP Public Private Partnership
REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation
SDGs Sustainable Development Goals
SR 15 Special Report 15
UN United Nations
UNCED United Nations Conference on Environment and Development
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNEP United Nations Environment Programme
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
ZICOSUR Integration Zone of the Centre-West Region of Southern America
Climate change is a reality today, the existence of which is undisputed and no longer
subject to scepticism. While the precise antecedents of the anthropocene1 are still
being drawn, there is a clear recognition that we are living in an epoch where the
impacts of global warming and a changing climate are being felt universally albeit
a bit differentially across the world (Dalby 2014; Arnell et al. 2019). In order to
1Anthropocene is defined in the Oxford English Dictionary as “the era of geological time during
which human activity is considered to be the dominant influence on the environment, climate, and
ecology of the earth”.
International Climate Change Agreements: Setting a Global … 197
deal with the challenges being posed, collective global or international action is
imperative.
By its very nature, climate change is defined as a problem of “global commons”2
(Stiglitz et al. 2001; Metz 2010), the effects of which reach all irrespective of terri-
torial boundaries. The benefits accrued from minimizing climate change impacts,
are “non-excludable” and “non-rival” and are simultaneously enjoyed by everyone
without reducing the benefits for others (Chan et al. 2018).
The argument for global cooperation is strengthened further by other aspects.
As the sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are distributed unevenly, the
emissions contribution of an individual nation may appear small, but when aggregated
with that of other nations, the quantum becomes significant. Likewise with various
economic sectors, where the share of a specific sector may not appear to be very
large, but when put together with other sectors, the contribution becomes sizable. In
a global economic world where products are part of a worldwide supply chain, global
and international cooperation is core to any efforts made to reduce emissions and
promote a low carbon economy. Moreover, for any nation, the costs of the impacts
of climate change will prove to be greater than the costs of avoiding it. Therefore,
to receive benefits at the lowest possible prices, such cooperation is indispensable
(Metz 2010; Stiglitz et al. 2001).
Yet another reason that calls for global cooperation is the need for compliance and
enforcement. In the wake of the present “global commons” challenge, who ensures
that nations transition to climate-friendly action? A binding international framework
or agreement becomes the instrument that drives the formulation of such action and
serves as a mechanism that promotes enforcement and compliance.
The existence of multiple stakeholders, uneven distribution of emission sources,
the realisation of differential impacts over space and time, and unequal capacity to
deal with implications are factors that set the stage for global cooperation (Stiglitz
et al. 2001). Over the years, several suggestions have been advocated to help address
climate change like (among others) its integration in the contributing sectors, use of
market-based instruments, development of a global price for GHG emissions, and
technological innovation and diffusion (OECD 2007). The push for the necessity to
act is offered through global or international3 cooperation.
1 Trajectory of Global Climate Cooperation
The United Nations (UN) has been at the helm of bringing together global cooper-
ation to tackle the crisis of the environment, including climate change. The roots of
global action for climate change can be pinned to the formation, in the early 1990s,
of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. The background, however, was
2 Global commons refers to shared resources that lie beyond the jurisdiction of individual nations.
3 I use the terms global and international intermittently; while international refers to a coming
together of more than one nation, global pans a more universal presence.
198 S. Indukuri
laid in the 1970s and 1980s with the growing international awareness about the
world facing an environmental crisis. It was this recognition that led to the Stock-
holm Conference of 1972, the first major conference of the UN to address global
environmental issues, which also saw the formation of the United Nations Environ-
ment Programme (UNEP). Later the Vienna Convention of 1985 brought attention
to the protection of the ozone layer and made way for the Montreal Protocol of 1987
that set limits on the use and production of ozone depleting substances. Given its
widespread adoption and effective implementation, the Montreal Protocol has been
hailed as a successful example of international cooperation, even leading the former
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan to term it as “perhaps the single most successful
international agreement to date [in 2003]” (UNEP 2019; McNeill 2020). It is amidst
such backdrop that the agenda of climate change emerged at the global arena, as part
of an existing yet growing concern for global environment and ecology.
Fuelled by the emerging consciousness and awareness on climate change, in 1988,
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a UN body, was established
to provide scientific information on the impacts, hazards and risks of climate change,
as also to indicate possible responses to deal with it. The IPCC has 195 member coun-
tries and came out with its first assessment report (AR1)4 on climate change in 1990.
The two years that followed the release of the AR1 saw discussions and negotiations,
which eventually led the UN General Assembly to arrive at a common framework
for climate change (Metz 2010). Consequently, at the 1992 UN Conference on Envi-
ronment and Development (UNCED) held at Rio de Janeiro, also known as the
Rio Summit or the Earth Summit, a framework convention on climate change was
adopted.
The Rio Summit was a milestone as it led to the formation of three key conven-
tions on the environment, namely, (i) the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)
to address the loss of biodiversity, (ii) the Convention on Combating Desertification
(CCD) to address the problem of desertification, and (iii) the Framework Convention
on Climate Change (FCCC) to address the consequences of climate change. Subse-
quently, each of the conventions has played a key role in taking forward its respective
mandate and holds a Conference of the Parties (COP) once in two years (in the case
of CBD, CCD) or every year (in the case of UNFCCC).
The UN has not only acted as a catalyst for global cooperation but serves as
an umbrella organisation that has set up key institutions standing at the forefront
for propelling climate action. The UNFCCC, established under its rubric, sits at
the centre of climate institutions as the primary platform for holding discussions,
negotiations and proposing actions (see Fig. 1).
4 The IPCC prepares scientific Assessment Reports every few years and has so far produced five
assessment reports with the sixth one under preparation by its working group and is expected to be
released in 2021. The assessment reports are synthesis reports that offer a comprehensive review
of the climate scenario. Additionally, the IPCC prepares Special Reports that assess specific issues
and Methodology Reports, which serve as guidelines to create GHG inventories.
Fig. 1 Background of the emergence of international climate agreements
1.1 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
Although established in 1992 at the Rio Summit, the UNFCCC came into force
in 1994. Its goal is to “stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmo-
sphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climatesystem…Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to
allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production
is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable
manner” (UNFCCC 1992). The UNFCCC works closely with the IPCC, which in
turn produces scientific reports to aid and support UNFCCC impart its functions and
take informed decisions.
In its role as a framework agreement, the UNFCCC formulates principles, general
goals and actions that countries should take as a precautionary measure to limit GHG
emissions. It has also established institutions, a reporting mechanism and a system
of review for further action. Premised on the principles of “polluter pays” and a
“common but differentiated responsibility”, the UNFCCC held developed countries
accountable for greater emissions reduction targets based on the rationale that they
were the bigger emissions contributors in the past, while special consideration was
made for vulnerable, developing countries. Accordingly, the Annex I, Annex II,
and non-Annex countries were defined and listed by it. The Annex I list comprises
the industrialised economies and those belonging to the Organisation for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD). It includes the European Union and the
economies in transition from Central and Eastern Europe. The Annex II countries
are the developed economies and the European Union, but exclude the economies in
transition. The non-Annex nations are the developing countries. Specific emissions
200 S. Indukuri
reduction targets are set for the Annex I countries5 (a list that also includes the
Annex II countries). In contrast, the Annex II countries (as distinct from the Annex
I) are accounted for providing financial resources for developing nations or the non-
Annex countries (ibid.).
Today, 197 countries have ratified the UNFCCC and are party to it6 . Every year,
a COP7 is organised by the UNFCCC, and since inception it has held a total of 25
COPs (until 2019). It has also set up three financial instruments to support climate
action: (i) Global Environment Facility (GEF)8 funded (voluntarily) by the Annex II
countries, (ii) Least Developed Country Fund and (iii) Special Climate Change Fund
for financing adaptation.
1.2 Key Agreements of UNFCCC
The first COP of the UNFCCC was held in 1995 in Berlin, where negotiations were
started to identify the countries that needed to be committed to emissions reduction.
The negotiations resulted in the Berlin Mandate, according to which the Annex I
countries were accounted for reducing their respective GHG emissions. Over the
following two years, the emissions reduction goal was quantified and put forward
at the Kyoto COP in 1997, to materialise into what came to be known as the Kyoto
Protocol, one of the most significant agreements to come out of the UNFCCC COPs
(Metz 2010; Chan et al. 2018).
1.2.1 Kyoto Protocol, 1997
The Kyoto Protocol proposed at the COP 1997 set specific quantified targets for
emissions reductions for the Annex I countries of the UNFCCC, for the period 2008
to 2012 called the “first commitment period” (UNFCCC 1998, 2008). It came into
force, however, only in 2005 after its ratification by the parties. The goal for the
5 The convention included in the Annex I countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark,
European Economic Community, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan,
Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey,
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, United States of America; and in the
economies in transition it included: Belarus, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia,
Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Ukraine.
6 A convention, agreement or framework is said to be ratified by a nation or country once it is
approved formally by the parliament, cabinet or respective decision making body of the country
and upon ratification the nation becomes a ‘party’. Ratification indicates giving a formal consent to
be bound by the agreement by virtue of being a part of it.
7 The Conference of Parties (COP) is the decision-making body comprised of all the ratified nations
or parties. A COP is named after the place where it is organised for the parties to come together for
the annual meet.
8 GEF is operated through the World Bank, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and
UNEP.
Clean Development
Emissions Trading Joint Implementaon
Mechanism
(Arcle 17) (Arcle 6)
(Arcle 12)
• Annex I countries can transfer • Creaon, acquision & • Developed countries gain
among themselves porons transfer of emission credits for financing emission
of assigned GHG emissions reducon units between reducon projects in
developed countries developing countries
• Countries that emit less than
they are allowed can transfer • Specific emission reducon • Emission reducons to be
surplus to others projects cerfied
Fig. 2 Emissions reduction mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol
commitment of Annex I parties was set as follows: with reference to the base year
of 1990, a reduction by 5% in their overall national emissions from sources listed in
Annex A9 of the protocol. The individual country-specific targets were enumerated
in Annex B of the protocol. Other parties or non-Annex countries could participate
in different ways.
A system of compliance and reporting by the Annex I parties was outlined
in the protocol, which provided three comprehensive and flexible mechanisms to
operationalise emissions reductions. These were: (i) Emissions Trading, (ii) Joint
Implementation and (iii) Clean Development Mechanism.
By means of Emissions Trading, an Annex I party could transfer its units to
another Annex I party or vice-versa, that is, acquire units from another party. Joint
Implementation (JI) allowed an Annex I party to invest in an emissions reduction
project in another Annex 1 country and gain credits for the same. The Clean Develop-
ment Mechanism (CDM) provided for Annex I parties to invest in emissions reduc-
tion projects in non-Annex countries, developing countries and gain the emissions
reduction credits for it. The process of a CDM project involved various stages of
project development, project implementation, certification, and approval of certified
emissions reductions (CERs). What was important for CDM was that there had to
be an element of 100% additionality. In other words, a CDM project had to be over
and above a business-as-usual scenario, specifically designed for CDM purpose. An
existing project could not be pitched as also a CDM project (ibid.) (see Fig. 2).
By means of participation in the above three mechanisms and through Land Use,
Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) activities, the Annex I parties could
raise or lower their initial assigned amount or change the level of their allowed
emissions over the first commitment period (UNFCCC 1998; UNFCCC 2008; Chan
et al. 2018; Stavins et al. 2014). In 2005, negotiations commenced for a second
commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol; these finally concluded in 2012 when
the second commitment period was established from 2013 to 2020. While countries
like the United States opted out of the Kyoto Protocol in the first commitment period
9 Annex A of the Kyoto Protocol lists six green house gases: Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4),
Nitrous oxide (N2O), Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), Perfluorocarbons (PFCs), Sulphur hexafluoride
(SF6). It also lists the sectors and respective sources of GHG emissions; the sectors listed are energy,
industrial processes, solvent and other product use, agriculture, and waste.
202 S. Indukuri
Kyoto Protocol
• Emissions reducƟons targets set for Annex I countries

• Target of reducƟon by 5% in overall naƟonal emissions from listed sources
• Base reference year of 1990
• Targets set for the first commitment period of 2008 to 2012
• Three flexible mechanisms provided for fulfilling emissions reducƟons targets
• ParƟes can change level of allowed emissions, with the flexible mechanisms & LULUCF
Fig. 3 Highlights of the Kyoto Protocol
itself and others like Canada, New Zealand, Japan were hesitant to extend into the
second commitment period, notwithstanding the non-participation of some of the
big emitters, many Annex I parties were able to fulfil their targets and committed
to reducing their GHG emissions in the first and second commitment periods (see
Fig. 3).
Post Kyoto, discussions began on the need for a reconsideration of the distribu-
tion of emissions reduction targets. The climate change conventions were hitherto
premised on an equity principle and had not taken into cognizance the fact that over
time many non-Annex countries saw a significant growth of their economy and a
consequent increase in their emissions release. The problem of leakages could not
be dismissed any longer. While Annex I countries reduced emissions, if the devel-
oping countries were not bound to reduce emissions, they would add back emissions
(Stiglitz et al. 2001). In the wake of these elements, the COPs post-Kyoto saw the
emergence of discussions and negotiations on relooking at the distribution of emis-
sions reduction targets, thereafter making way for future agreements and frameworks
that came into shape at the succeeding key COPs and later led to the significant Paris
Agreement.
1.2.2 Post Kyoto
In 2007 the Bali COP was held where re-thinking began on the distinction between
the Annex and non-Annex parties and the base reference year of 1990. At the same
time, the discussions brought forth the need for setting up of a ceiling on global
average temperature increase. The Bali Action Plan was formulated here and high-
lighted some key areas like Monitoring Reporting and Verification (MRV) by the
developed nations, design of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs)
for developing countries, and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degrada-
tion (REDD). It also called for adaptation action in developing nations and imple-
menting measures to protect against climate change, including National Adaptation
Programmes of Action (NAPAs).10
The discussions held at and those preceding the Copenhagen COP of 2009,
resulted in the Copenhagen Accord, which was ratified by 100 parties and high-
lighted the proposition of keeping the global average temperature increase to 2°C (or
even 1.5°C) above pre-industrial levels. Additionally, it proposed 30 billion dollars
from developed countries for mitigation and adaptation in developing countries,
adopting new mechanisms for adaptation, financing forest preservation, and tech-
nology transfer (Metz 2010; Chan et al. 2018). It also built the ground for setting up
of the Green Climate Fund, established at the following Cancun COP in 2010.
The re-thinking on the distribution of emissions reductions targets, previously
designed in the Kyoto Protocol got further concretised in 2010 at the Cancun COP.
The discussions were instrumental in recognising that the enforcement mechanism
as the one in the Kyoto Protocol (legally binding, collective emission targets and
equitable sharing of emission reductions) would slow the goal of 2°C increase in
global average temperature initiated in the Bali COP. This recognition led to new
opportunities that would drive nations to adopt robust emissions reductions action
(ibid.).
The discussion on targets re-distribution was furthered at the Durban COP held
in 2011 and again, reiterated and outlined in the form of the Durban Platform for
Enhanced Action, which highlighted developing a protocol or instrument that would
have a legal binding and would apply to all parties(ibid.). In 2012 at the COP held
in Doha, the parties agreed to extend the expiring Kyoto Protocol to a “second
commitment period” from 2013 to 2020, which was notified as the Doha Amendment.
Going forward, the measure to extend the commitment period took further shape
in 2013 at the Warsaw COP, the discussions of which were presented as the Warsaw
Mechanism. The mechanism proposed establishing a timeline for all parties (both
developed and developing countries) to offer Intended Nationally Determined Contri-
butions (INDCs); where the INDCS would represent each country’s planned mitiga-
tion actions (Chan et al. 2018). The proposition set the stage for the significant Paris
Agreement that followed two years hence.
1.2.3 Paris Agreement, 2015
The most comprehensive framework for international climate policy post the Kyoto
Protocol of 1997 is the Paris Agreement, which was formalised at the COP 21 held
at Paris in 2015. At the centre of the Paris Agreement is a pledge and review of
10 Climate change mitigation and adaptation are two types of broad overarching actions recognised
to handle the climate problem. Mitigation refers to efforts that minimise emissions of GHG; whereas
adaptation efforts aim to reduce the negative effects of climate change that will be experienced or,
in other words, it means preparing for the negative impacts that are already being felt or will be felt.
204 S. Indukuri
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) made by the parties. The NDCs are
ten-year goals for climate mitigation set by each party and may include adaptation,
finance and other measures. The agreement establishes a goal of “global warmingwell
below 2°C on pre-industrial average” to pursue efforts to limit the temperature
increase to 1.5°C. In revising the base reference level from 1990 to pre-industrial
time, the agreement presents a more ambitious goal. In order to strengthen the global
response to climate change, it offers a universal framework by obligating all parties to
contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation (Stavins et al. 2014; UNFCCC
2015; Streck et al. 2016).
Unlike the Kyoto Protocol, the Paris Agreement has adopted a more inclusive
‘bottom-up’ approach in terms of individual national targets (Chan et al. 2018). It
does not set emissions reduction targets for individual parties, but formulates an
overall climate change goal asking parties to contribute to it. The individual parties
decide how and how much they can contribute to meeting that goal. In this sense,
“it is directional, not prescriptive” (Rivett-Carnac 2020). The design draws on the
“principle of common but differentiated responsibility and respective capabilities, in
the light of different national circumstances”. Thus, although it builds on the princi-
ples established in the UNFCCC, that is, “common but differentiated responsibilities
and respective capabilities (CBDRC)”, it specifies that it will be implemented “in
the light of different national circumstances” (UNFCCC 2015). The share of total
emissions, however, applies to all countries and not merely to the developed Annex
I parties, as was the case with the Kyoto Protocol.
In order to keep a track on the overall goal, every five years the COP will take
stock to review the progress in meeting it. Consequently, informed by the same, each
party will update and adapt its NDCs to reflect ‘a progression beyond the then current
nationally determined contribution’. The NDCs, therefore, are envisioned to increase
over time and align as the ‘highest possible ambition’ with changing capabilities.
The agreement holds that setting ambitious targets and actions by some states will
evince reciprocity from other states to raise their respective ambition levels (Streck
et al. 2016; Chan et al. 2018).
The emissions reduction commitments in the form of NDCs represent a political
aim rather than a legal obligation (Streck et al. 2016). The agreement lays commu-
nication, reporting and accounting by parties for their actions and results achieved
in implementing NDCs, based on the element of trust and promotes ‘environmental
integrity, transparency, accuracy, completeness, comparability and consistency, and
[ensuring] the avoidance of double-counting’ (UNFCCC 2015). The Paris Agree-
ment came into force in 2016, effectively replacing the Kyoto Protocol. It is ratified
by 189 (out of the 197 countries that are party to the UNFCCC).
A significant landmark in the international climate agreements, the Paris Agree-
ment complements the global agenda for the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs) where climate change (SDG 13) remains the strongest of challenges (see
Fig. 4). It also recognises the critical role that non-state actors like the private sector,
citizens and other state actors like regional governments, must play in transitioning
towards a zero-carbon economy or net-zero emissions by 2050 (Wolfe et al. 2016;
Rivett-Carnac 2020).
Paris Agreement
• Ten year climate miƟgaƟon goals “NaƟonally Determined ContribuƟons” set by parƟes
• Overall goal of keeping global warming below 2°C; base reference level of pre-industrial Ɵme
• Increase in ambiƟon with Ɵme and limiƟng temperature increase to 1.5°C
• All parƟes obligated to contribute to climate change miƟgaƟon and adaptaƟon
• CommunicaƟon, reporƟng and accounƟng by parƟes for results achieved in NDCs
• RecogniƟon of the role of non-state actors and domesƟc, regional state actors
Fig. 4 Highlights of the Paris Agreement
While the Paris Agreement has provided a clearer direction for global response on
climate change, the incentives for taking ambitious actions can be made more robust.
The success of the Paris Agreement will depend on the ramping up of individual
country NDCs and setting up of more ambitious targets.
1.2.4 Post Paris
The post Paris period has seen the hosting of four COPs (at Marrakech, Bonn,
Katowice, and Madrid) and the initiation of discussions on newer issues like
water related sustainability. A significant development post-Paris was the bringing
out of the Special Report 15 (SR15) of the IPCC in 2018. The scientific report ratio-
nalises keeping the ceiling of global average temperature increase at 1.5°C than at
2°C. It argues that even with a 2°C goal, extreme events and other adverse effects
will continue to plague nations.
The post Paris developments have pointed to the necessity of big and ambitious
targets and actions that will bring emissions to net zero by 2050 and hold temperature
increase to below 1.5°C. The subsequent discussions have called for countries to put
forward ambitious commitments in the form of new NDCs and long term strategies
for net zero emissions as also commitments to support the vulnerable nations and
formulate ambitious adaptation plans. The push has been further strengthened with
the publishing of the Emissions Gap Report 2020 and the Production Gap Report
2020, which provide the rationale for making such ambitious goals and commitments.
The Emissions Gap Report 2020 reviews the gap between the predicted GHG emis-
sions for 2030 and where it should be. The Production Gap Report 2020 discusses
the gap between the goal set by the Paris Agreement and the projected production
of coal, oil and gas as planned by countries (UNEP 2020; SEI et al. 2020). The
trajectory of climate cooperation, thus, when seen in the above light, has constantly
evolved with every key milestone (see Fig. 5).
206 S. Indukuri
1995 Berlin 1997 Kyoto 2007 Bali 2009 Copenhagen 2010 Cancun
Idenfying Annex I Annex I countries - Monitoring Reporng Global avg. temp. Re-thinking of
countries emissions reducons Verificaon by increase at 2°C above Kyoto
targets 2008-2012 developed naons pre-industrial level enforcement
mechanism
5% reducon from Naonally Appropriate 30 billion $ from
1990 levels Migaon Acons for developed to
developing countries developing countries
Flexible mechanisms to
reduce emissions Reducing Emissions Financing forest
from Deforestaon and preservaon &
Degradaon technology transfer
Adaptaon acons in
developing naons
2011 Durban 2012 Doha 2013 Warsaw

2015 Paris
Discussion on Kyoto Protocol Intended

Naonally Determined
targets re- second Naonally
Contribuons – goals for
distribuon commitment Determined
10 yrs by all pares
period 2013- Contribuons by
Beyond Annex I 2020 all countries
Global warming below
naons for 2°C of pre-industrial avg.
emissions
reducon Ambion increase with
me - limit temp.
increase to 1.5°C
Communicaon,
reporng, accounng for
NDCs
Fig. 5 Trajectory of international climate agreements
2 Influencing Factors
International cooperation on climate change has come a long way from since its
inception to a post-Paris setting. The UNFCCC and its various agreements have
successfully etched a climate change agenda on the global map and established an
institutional architecture needed to drive collective action. In its over three decades of
driving global climate cooperation, the UNFCCC has premised the key discussions
on first, a scientific knowledge of where we are and second, setting goals for where
we want to go. The decisions that have emerged at the various COPs have rested on
these key fundamentals and shaped the trajectory of the climate architecture helmed
by the United Nations.
At the same time, the decision making at the COPs, participation of the ratifying
parties, the progress of climate goals and other aspects are influenced by various
factors, which make the design and operation of the processes involved complex in
nature. The evolution of the trajectory of international climate change agreements
and the role that has been played by the UN and its institutions can be viewed in the
light of these factors in order to understand the relevance and achievement.
2.1 Political Economy Imperatives
Global cooperation for climate change has political, social, and economic dimensions
that operate between nations and within a nation and manifest in the form of dispari-
ties of resource distribution, political and economic power. The political context and
economic imperatives influence a nation’s decisions to support or opt-out of emis-
sions reduction goals or restrain developing nations from engaging in voluntary emis-
sions reductions (Stiglitz et al. 2001). Countries differ in their relationship with the
climate challenge in various ways like their contribution to GHG emissions, degree
of vulnerability to experiencing impacts (both in scale and immediacy), economic
and political power to negotiate at COPs, and the scientific and technical capacity to
work towards fulfilling targets and goals. The interaction and play of these various
elements determine a party’s national climate change-related priorities, allocation of
responsibility for current and historic harm, and perceptions of climate change that
prevail among its citizens (Running 2012; Atapattu and Gonzalez 2015).
The fundamental tenets adopted by the UNFCCC recognise the differences that
exist in the present world politico-economic order. The convention enshrines the
principle of “common but differentiated responsibility” established in its charter
and carried it forward as a core premise into the historic Kyoto Protocol. It cannot
be denied that the industrialised economies have been responsible for the bulk
of GHG emissions, at a time when the developing economies still grappled with
fulfilling basic development challenges. Nonetheless, the cooperation of the latter
is essential for the success of international regulations on climate cooperation. The
convention sought cognizance of this assertion as it moved progressively towards
the Paris Agreement, which was then designed to make all parties (and not only the
industrialised economies) accountable for reducing emissions, while it continued
to set the “principle of common but differentiated responsibility” with “respective
capabilities” and “in the light of different national circumstances” (UNFCCC 2015).
The differences in economic order particularly surface when making a transition
to climate-friendly policy or a carbon neutral economy like adoption of cleaner
technologies. The lack of such technological ability makes it difficult for governments
in the developing countries to enact legislation governing emissions. Thus, climate
agreements also evolved to make provisions for funding support to developing nations
through various instruments, where funding is pooled from developed economies.
208 S. Indukuri
2.2 Decision Making Approach
From Kyoto to Paris, the UNFCCC witnessed strong multilateralism in the creation
and endorsement of its protocols, agreements and frameworks. Its decision making
process, however, by design, deployed a “top-down” approach. The overall goal
setting is formulated through negotiations and deliberations where it is the represen-
tatives of national governments of the parties who participate. The levels of govern-
ment further below, for instance the regional level and below, have traditionally not
been the key determining participants at the main deliberations, though they may
participate in various side events and specific discussions organised at the COPs.
The Paris Agreement marked a shift to a more “bottom-up” approach. Its structure
and design are distinctive from the previous agreements, as it paved way for the
respective parties to devise their own targets and included reliance on not just national,
but also on regional and sub-national levels of governance, and non-state actors. The
transition seen in the Paris Agreement demonstrates an evolution in the degree of
centralised authority, and marks a shift to a more decentralised approach, at the same
time, allowing for greater harmonisation of national policies (Galarraga et al. 2009;
Stavins et al. 2014; Chan et al. 2018).
2.3 Data Necessity
The setting of quantifiable goals and targets like in the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris
Agreement requires scientific data and information. The IPCC reports have played a
significant role in supporting the UNFCCC with data and information that provides
a base for overall goal setting. In this sense, the coordination and close working
between the IPCC and UNFCCC has been marked with a great degree of success.
What remains to be seen in equal measure, however, is the availability and use of data
showing how the macro goals translate and trickle down into micro targets further
down from the global and national levels.
Yet another grey area that calls for informed data is on the costs of climate action:
costs of mitigation and the costs for bearing the impacts, that is, costs for building
climate resilience and measures for adaptation. The degree and extent of these costs
is required, firstly, to drive nations to meet targets, and secondly, to plan the future
course of action. In the event of a lack of certain or indicative costs, the data needs
to be generated, and a mechanism can be devised to include it in the reporting and
accounting system. There is a need to measure the costs of emissions reduction with
the costs of bearing the impacts, and it is important to gain benefits of emissions reduc-
tions at the lowest possible costs with a combination of elements like market-based
instruments, integration of climate change in policy areas, technological innovation
and diffusion (OECD 2007). The limitation in the above, coupled with an uncertainty
over the evident benefits that will accrue and the long-distance time period of the
benefits to be received, has led to slower global climate deeds.
2.4 Mitigation vs. Adaptation Focus
Mitigation and adaptation are like two sides of the climate coin and need to be
addressed in equal light in order to deal with climate change. Yet, international climate
policy has focused more on mitigation, while adaptation has been dealt with more
broadly. From inception, the international climate environment has largely centered
on mitigation, but slowly recognised the need for bringing attention to adaptation.
Therefore, the COPs from Bali onwards initiated discussions and measures on adap-
tation. In the more immediate term, it is very critical to push for adaptation efforts, as
climate impacts are already being felt in different parts of the globe causing much
havoc.
Two elements ingrained in climate policy design and overall goal setting, illus-
trate the point further. First, the time frame reflected in climate policy goal setting
is medium to long-range and is more aligned to mitigation, the results of which are
visible only over a period of time. Whereas, in the short-range scenario, the imme-
diate need is adaptation and building resilience. The NDCs of the Paris Agreement are
primarily shaped as national mitigation targets and include adaptation as an additional
measure. Second, the UNFCCC and its agreements have been based on a ‘precau-
tionary principle’, more associated with mitigation rather than also being inclusive
of a ‘curative principle’ that will correspond with adaptation and climate-related
suffering.
Yet another dimension is the definition of parties that is premised on contribution
to emissions more than on the basis of vulnerability to impacts of climate change.
It is the greater vulnerability to climate risks and hazards that has motivated some
nations to advocate strongly during climate negotiations. Many of these nations have
come together in coalitions and associations to design adaptation strategies. If some
nations are more at risk than others, it may be prudent to be more inclusive of the
element of vulnerability when defining “Parties” of the convention.
3 Regional, Non-UN, Non-State Groups
Even as the UNFCCC remains a core platform, other institutions have emerged at
different levels and varied in nature such that the institutional landscape of inter-
national cooperation on climate change, from the time of its inception, has become
diverse. The push lent to the climate agenda by international agreements has led
to a horizontal and vertical ripple effect, evident in the emergence of regional
groups, and distinct non-UN and non-state groups, which are slowly becoming the
on-ground torchbearers of climate action.
Regional Groups: The UNFCCC recognises the role of regional groups, and gives
them observer or consultative status at its COPs; both UNDP and UNEP work
closely with various regional groups. Examples of regional groups are: Forum
of Global Associations of Regions (FOGAR), Network of Regional Governments
210 S. Indukuri
for Sustainable Development (Nrg4sd), Association of European Border Regions

(AEBR), Latin-American Organisation of Intermediate Governments (OLAGI), and
Integration Zone of the Centre-West Region of Southern America (ZICOSUR). There
are also examples of states or provinces of a participating nation, which have taken
pro-active measures as a region and set targets beyond or over and above national
targets. For instance, British Columbia in Canada aimed for a 33% reduction of 2007
GHG emissions levels by 2020 and 80% by 2050, New South Wales in Australia
set out to reduce 60% emissions by 2050 and a reduction to 2000 levels by 2025.
Being closer to ground reality, the regional groups can play a more influential role
in implementing goals and actions and raising awareness among citizens (Galarraga
et al. 2009, Chan et al. 2018; Stavins et al. 2014).
Non-UN Groups: Non-UN groups include groups like REDD + partnership, Inter-
national Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), and the Major Economies Forum on
Energy and Climate Change (MEF). The REDD + partnership focuses on enhancing
forest carbon stock through conservation and sustainable forest management, IRENA
promotes development of renewable energy and the MEF is a discussion forum for
for its members, who together account for 70% of global GHG emissions (Stavins
et al. 2014).
Non-State Groups: Non-state groups are in the form of public–private partnerships
(PPP), private sector governance initiatives, NGO transnational initiatives and sub-
national trans-national initiatives. Public–private collaborations include the Renew-
able Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP), the Global Methane Initia-
tive and the Global Superior Energy Performance Partnership. Private sector actors
have also governed more directly by setting voluntary carbon disclosure or stan-
dards or supporting developing systems of accounting. NGO transnational initia-
tives include certification schemes for carbon offset like Gold Standard, or forestry
credit schemes like Climate, Community and Biodiversity Alliance standard; while,
the sub-national transnational initiatives include the International Council for Local
Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI), a network of local governments for sustainability
and C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group (Stavins et al. 2014; Chan et al. 2018) (see
Fig. 6).
4 Conclusion
The landscape of international climate change agreements is complex, given its multi-
sector and multi-scale intersections, and has seen a centrifugal flow in responsiveness
to the climate emergency. It may be said that decisions and discussions of interna-
tional agreements have served as a catalyst for a trickle-down to finance, investment,
and policy change across multiple sectors, which in turn, is being seen into effect by
a plethora of actors and institutions that have emerged across scales and geographies.
The way forward calls for innovative measures for investment and climate finance,
accelerating green technologies and practices, devising ways to change consumer
United Naons Other groups
UNEP, Observer status

IPCC UNFCCC UNDP
GEF Regional FOGAR, OLAGI, AEBR
Non-UN REDD+, IRENA, MEF
PPP, Private, NGO-

Subsidiary Expert Non-State transnaonal, Sub-
Secretariat COPs Others naonal, transnaonal
Bodies Groups
Decision-making:
Naonal level state representaves
of rafied Pares
Fig. 6 Institutional architecture of global climate cooperation
behaviour to support green technologies and practices, encouraging efforts that have
“co-benefits” and above all strengthening inclusion of climate policy across sectors;
all of which will result with enhanced coordination to and from multiple scales and
actors.
Today, we see that a new generation of climate activists have emerged across
the globe to push the climate agenda harder and country discussions, goals are
moving towards net-zero emissions and increasing levels of self-commitment by
setting ambitious targets. Amidst this, progress towards targets remains a distant
run, as collectively, nations lag behind. There is a pressing need to pull up systems
for measurement. At the same time, a different approach in the present ‘voluntary’
liability system may bring greater compliance to achieve targets.
What is most critical in going forward and propelling further action is whether we a
need to adopt a different haul and paradigm in which the international policy operates,
to make it more incumbent and inevitable for nations to inch closer to targets with
greater urgency. The current perspective in international climate change discourse
is about “sharing a common burden” rather than about “maximizing benefits of
preventing climate change damages” (Metz 2010). A change in perspective from the
former to the latter can fuel the growing climate policy regime.
212 S. Indukuri
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Climate Targets
Pushp Bajaj and Saurabh Thakur
Abstract The Paris Climate Agreement, signed by over 190 countries at COP21
of the UNFCCC in 2015, set a unique precedent in the global fight against climate
change. The signing parties agreed to limit global warming well below 2 °C, aiming
for 1.5 °C, which poses a herculean task for the international community. Studies
have shown that this target could only be achieved through drastic cuts in global
greenhouse gas emissions and large-scale removal of excess carbon dioxide from
the atmosphere. In this context, this chapter highlights the latest developments in
the science and technology of carbon capture and storage techniques, including
land-based and ocean-based techniques, bio-energy with carbon capture and storage
(BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC), which would be critical in our efforts to
mitigate climate change. The chapter also discusses the technological, financial,
ethical, and socio-political challenges and limitations that would need to be addressed
for large-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage technologies. As global
carbon emissions continue to rise unabated, the need for carbon dioxide removal
technologies will grow simultaneously. More research and development is needed to
solve the outstanding problems and make these technologies safe, sustainable, and
economically feasible for large-scale deployment.
Keywords Carbon dioxide capture · Carbon sequestration · Paris agreement ·

Negative emissions · BECCS · Direct air capture
1 Introdution
In 2015, the global average temperature rose 1 degree Celsius (°C) above pre-
industrial levels (1850–1900 average) for the first time. Last year, 2020, tied with
2016 for the hottest year ever recorded at 1.25 °C above the 1850–1900 average
(Carrington 2021). This marked an important milestone; the last time the planet was
more than 1 °C warmer was during the last interglacial period around 1,20,000 years
ago (NEEM Community Members 2013). While 1 °C may appear to be a small
P. Bajaj (B) · S. Thakur

National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi, India
216 P. Bajaj and S. Thakur
change, on average, it corresponds to a very different climate on planet Earth. This

1 °C rise in temperature has modified the hydrological cycle, the carbon cycle, and
other natural cycles. The global mean sea level has increased by about 21–24 cm (cm)
since 1880 (Lindsey 2020). Extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, droughts,
extreme rainfall, cyclones, storm surges, etc., have become more common, more
intense, and less predictable.
What is more worrisome is that the temperature rise is accelerating. With the
increase of every fraction of degree, the impacts on the natural cycles grow larger and,
in turn, the socio-economic impacts on human civilisations increase exponentially.
This temperature rise is being fuelled primarily by the relentlessly rising greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere primarily emitted by the burning of fossil fuels by humans
(Mann et al. 2016; Hansen and Stone 2016; UCSUSA 2017). Among them, the
most important greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide (CO2 ) due to its long ‘lifetime’
in the atmosphere. Once emitted, CO2 stays in the atmosphere for several hundreds
to thousands of years before being removed by natural processes (Archer et al.
2009). In other words, planetary temperatures will continue to rise as long as we
continue to emit CO2 into the atmosphere and this warming will be irreversible on
the order of hundreds to thousands of years considering the long lifetime of CO2 in
the atmosphere.
In this context, this chapter will highlight why CO2 capture and storage are abso-
lutely essential in humanity’s efforts to mitigate climate change by bringing down the
atmospheric CO2 concentration to “safe levels”. And how it can be achieved using a
combination of nature-based and technological methods. Section 2 will outline the
ambitious 2015 Paris Climate Agreement targets and how they can only be achieved
with large-scale use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques in addition to
drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The major CDR techniques that are
currently being explored and implemented, albeit at small scales, by the interna-
tional community, will be critically analysed in Sect. 3. Finally, Sect. 4 will discuss
the ethical, political and economic challenges and discuss potential future pathways
for successful large-scale deployment of CDR in order to accomplish the daunting
task of restoring the climate to normalcy.
2 The Key to Achieving Paris Climate Targets
The Paris Climate Agreement, signed by over 190 countries in Paris at the 21st
Conference of Parties (COP21) of the United Nations’ Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC), is a unique and unprecedented international climate
agreement. For the first time, almost all nations of the world came together and
agreed that climate change poses a serious threat to global security and prosperity.
The signatories of the agreement pledged to limit global warming well below 2 °C,
aiming for 1.5 °C, in order to avoid some of the worst impacts. Following that, the
United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was tasked to
Carbon Dioxide Capture and Sequestration … 217
quantify the physical and socio-economic impacts of climate change that will occur
if the global average temperature rises by 2 and 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.
In 2018, the UN IPCC produced a comprehensive special report titled “Global
Warming of 1.5 °C” with a detailed comparison between the impacts of 1.5 and
2 °C of global warming above pre-industrial levels (IPCC 2018). The report also
outlined a science-based action plan to achieve the 1.5 °C target. One of the central
conclusions of the report was that, in order to halt global warming below 2 °C the
global annual carbon emissions must drop by 25% by the year 2030 relative to 2010
levels and further to net-zero by 2070. The emission cuts would have to be even more
dramatic to stay below 1.5 °C, global annual carbon emissions must be reduced to
nearly half of their 2010 value by 2030 and to net-zero by 2050. This represents a
herculean task which would require an urgent and drastic transformation in almost
all sectors of the global economy. Notably, some sectors of the economy such as the
aviation and shipping sectors are particularly difficult to decarbonise because there
are currently no alternative zero-carbon fuels for airplanes and large cargo ships.
This sobering conclusion has rightfully gained significant attention from
academics, journalists, policy makers, and climate change activists. However, the less
appreciated fact is that the report also found that all scenarios limiting global warming
to 1.5 °C or 2 °C require the use of CDR on the order of 100–1000 giga tonnes of
CO2 (GtCO2 ) over the twenty-first century (Rogelj et al. 2018). That is more than
2–20 times the current global annual CO2 emissions. This is largely meant to offset
emissions from sectors that cannot be easily decarbonised with current technologies
as mentioned above. Moreover, the more we delay significant cuts in carbon emis-
sions, the more we will have to rely on CDR technologies to make up the difference.
According to a recent estimate by the International Energy Agency (IEA), currently
there are 21 large-scale commercial CDR facilities around the world, almost half of
them located in the United States, absorbing only up to 40 million tonnes of CO2
(MtCO2 ) each year (IEA 2020). Considering that the current, non-binding pledges
made by most nations are grossly incompatible with the Paris targets, it would be wise
to assume that CDR would become increasingly necessary in the coming decades.
3 Current Techniques to Carture and Store Cabron Dioxide
When it comes to carbon capture and sequestration, the natural systems are highly
efficient at the task. On land, soils and terrestrial vegetation sequester large amounts
of carbon from the atmosphere throughout their lifetimes. The oceans, too, absorb
large quantities of carbon through a number of physical, chemical and biological
processes. These natural “carbon-sinks” are critical components of the carbon cycle
of the planet and regulate the atmospheric carbon dioxide levels which, in turn,
regulates the climate. However, with rapid urbanisation and the growing impacts of
climate change the natural carbon sinks are diminishing at an alarming rate while the
anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are increasing. As long as this imbalance
continues growing, the atmospheric carbon dioxide levels will continue increasing at
accelerating rates and consequently the planetary temperature will continue rising.
Of course, the obvious way to counteract this imbalance would be to protect
and conserve the natural carbon sinks and/or enhance their capacity to extract more
carbon dioxide the atmosphere. So, for terrestrial systems this could be achieved
through reforestation and afforestation, and restoration of soils for enhanced carbon
storage. For marine systems, it would involve conservation of marine plants and
forests starting from the microscopic phytoplankton colonies to other coastal ecosys-
tems such as mangroves, seagrass, corals, etc. Additionally, scientists and engineers
have developed artificial/ technological methods to supplement the natural processes
to remove carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere or capture it at the source
(such as industrial exhausts) and prevent it from entering the atmosphere (National
Research Council 2015). The captured carbon is then concentrated and disposed,
either by storing it deep underground or in the ocean or by using it to produce other
commercial products. Traditional Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) (from industry,
fossil-fuel power plants, etc.), sometimes also referred to as Carbon Capture Utilisa-
tion and Storage (CCUS), Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS)
and Direct Air Capture (DAC) are some examples of technological solutions. This
section will provide an overview of some the most promising CDR techniques that are
either being actively implemented currently or have the potential to be implemented
at scale in the future.
3.1 Terrestrial Reforestation and Afforestation
The term Reforestation refers to restoration of forest on recently deforested land and
Afforestation refers to forestation of previously unforested land or land that has been
deforested for 50 years or more. Any climate change mitigation strategy is incom-
plete without a comprehensive plan for land-use and forestry. According to global
models-based estimates, land-use and land-use change resulted in around 5.2 GtCO2
emissions per year during the 2007–2016 period, accounting for around 13% of the
global CO2 emissions (IPCC 2019). These emissions are mainly driven by deforesta-
tion and land degradation and partly offset by reforestation/ afforestation and soil
restoration. While preventing deforestation is critical to reduce global annual CO2
emissions, carefully planned reforestation and afforestation activities could remove
significant amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere over long time scales resulting in
“negative emissions”.
However, there are a number of nuances that must be considered in order to
maximise the CO2 from afforestation and reforestation. Different forest ecosystems,
such as the boreal, temperature and tropical forests, could have very different rates
of net annual CO2 uptake, ranging from 1.5 tCO2 /ha to 30 tCO2 /ha (IPCC 2019). It
is important to note that this net uptake of CO2 follows a bell-curve over time which
reaches the maximum value in around three to four decades followed by a gradual
decline. The timing of the maximum also depends on the specific type of the forest.
However, this natural profile could be disrupted by natural or man-made disasters

such as forest fires, droughts or pest attacks, which are, ironically, becoming more
frequent and extreme due to climate change.
Recent models-based estimates suggest that the upper limit of the carbon capture
potential from reforestation and afforestation could be in the range of 1–7 GtCO2 per
year by 2050 (de Connick et al. 2018). Of course, to achieve the maximum potential
we would have to address the implementation challenges related to land require-
ments, water and nutrient (fertiliser) requirements, governance and legal issues, etc.
Cost estimates are significantly lower than other CDR techniques (discussed below)
and there would likely be ecosystem-services related benefits if species-diversity
is taken into account in reforestation and afforestation efforts. Arguably, there are
some concerns regarding the reduced albedo of forest canopies that may lead to more
warming and the fact that forests will, in general, become more vulnerable to climate-
change-induced forest fires and pest attacks, as mentioned before. Therefore, there
is a need for careful planning and identifying synergies with other climate change
mitigation strategies in order to make the case for reforestation and afforestation
stronger.
3.2 Ocean-Based Carbon Sequestration
In protecting humans from global heating, the oceans are silently playing a very
crucial role. Oceans act as massive natural carbon sinks, absorbing excess CO2 from
the atmosphere through multiple mechanisms. Scientific estimates suggest that, since
the beginning of the industrial revolution, oceans have absorbed nearly one-third of
all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions (Gruber et al. 2019). Carbon is stored in
the oceans in two main forms- organic and inorganic. At the air-ocean water interface,
there is constant exchange of CO2 between the air and ocean water. Some of it gets
dissolved into the ocean water and forms a weak acid, called carbonic acid, this
comprises the inorganic carbon. The organic carbon, on the other hand, is that which
is captured by coastal and marine plants and micro-organisms primarily through the
process of photosynthesis. Considering the vast expanse of the oceans there is huge
potential for large quantities of CO2 sequestration which has motivated scientists and
experts to find ways to enhance these natural processes and increase the CO2 storage
capacity of the oceans.
One way to increase the surface absorption of ocean water is through a process
called “ocean alkalinisation”. The idea is to distribute ground up rock material
(consisting of calcium and silicon primarily) in the surface waters where, under the
right temperature and chemical composition of the water, they combine with CO2
to produce dissolved alkaline bicarbonates and carbonates over time. This method
could, in principle, be used to sequester large quantities of carbon but it is limited
by the logistical aspects involved in extracting and distributing the rock minerals.
Some estimates suggest that the carbon capture potential could be in the range of
1–6 GtCO2 per year, however, the estimates are preliminary due to limited studies
on the subject and the wide-ranging parameters that determine the potential (Kohler
et al. 2013; Hauck et al. 2016; Renforth and Henderson 2017).
Ocean fertilisation through added nutrients is another approach to enhance carbon
fixation in the ocean. Phytoplankton are microscopic marine plants that live in the
surface waters. Just as terrestrial plants do, they absorb carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere and sunlight for photosynthesis and release oxygen in the process. They
are, in fact, the primary oxygen producers on the planet, they produce over 80% of
the oxygen that we breathe. Phytoplankton are produced in the oceans in what are
called “blooms” under specific atmospheric conditions. Their growth also relies on
dissolved nutrients in the water, such as iron, nitrogen and phosphorous, which are
in low supply. Scientists believe that, we could, in principle, enhance the growth
of phytoplankton species by artificially adding these nutrients to ocean water. This
process is referred in the scientific literature as “ocean fertilisation” (Harrison 2017).
However, this has only been tested in laboratory settings, no large-scale field experi-
ments have been conducted yet. There are also some outstanding questions regarding
the impact that enhanced fertilisation could have on the broader marine food-web
and in turn the marine biodiversity (Williamson et al. 2012). Simply considering the
vast area that the ocean covers, the potential for carbon sequestration through the
surface is quite significant, with more research and experimentation it could become
a strong candidate for large-scale carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere.
3.3 Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS)
BECCS corresponds to a hybrid, natural-technological methodology in which

‘biomass’ is first generated by growing energy-intensive crops and then consumed
(by burning or chemical conversion) to produce energy in the form of heat, electricity,
and/ or liquid or gas fuels; the CO2 that is generated during the consumption process
is captured and stored, completing the process of BECCS. This is considered to be
a ‘net-negative’ emissions technique, since, when the crops grow they absorb CO2
from the atmosphere via photosynthesis and then when the matured crops are burnt,
the emitted CO2 is captured and stored (generally underground), thereby resulting
in a net reduction of atmospheric CO2 . Due to the wide range of applications of
bioenergy and the potential for net negative emissions when combined with CCS,
BECCS is by far the most widely studied CDR technique (Kemper 2015). It is also
extensively incorporated in the Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAMs) studies that
are used by the UN’s IPCC to make projections for future climate change.
Most modelling scenarios that limit global warming below 1.5 and 2 °C consist
some combination of Afforestation and Reforestation with BECCS. According to
the 2018 IPCC Special Report on “Global Warming of 1.5 °C”, median values of
BECCS deployment is estimated to be around 3, 5 and 7 GtCO2 per year in 2050,
depending on whether the global average temperature rise stays below 1.5 °C, slightly
overshoots 1.5 °C, or highly overshoots 1.5 °C. The rates ramp up to 6, 12 and 15
GtCO2 per year in 2100 (Rogelj et al. 2018). It is important to understand that these are
median deployment rates; there are some scenarios compatible with 1.5 °C of global
warming which do not rely on BECCS, but instead use afforestation and reforestation
for CDR or do not rely on any form of CDR but instead assume deep cuts in global
carbon emissions in the short-term. Some of these hypothetical scenarios are likely
only of academic value and do not represent practical real-world possibilities. As
mentioned before, it is highly likely that we would need large-scale deployment of
CDR technologies during the twenty-first century and BECCS would almost certainly
be one of these technologies.
According to a 2013 study which considered switchgrass as the energy crop for
BECCS, in order to remove 1 Peta gram of Carbon per year (PgC/yr) equivalent to
3.7 GtCO2 /yr, it would require 200 million hectares of land, 20 Terra gram per year
(Tg/yr) of Nitrogen, and consume 4000 cubic kilometres per year (km3 /yr) of water
(equal to current global water withdrawals for irrigation) (Smith and Torn 2013). Of
course, these demanding land and resources requirements pose a major challenge for
large-scale deployment of BECCS, particularly considering the ever-growing land
requirement for food crops and feedstock for cattle to feed the growing population.
Large-scale biomass plantations may have to replace existing forests and grasslands
which would not only affect the biodiversity but also release the CO2 stored in
these forests when they are cleared. Additionally, if the biomass plantations adopt a
monoculture practice that would be detrimental to the soil quality and reduce their
natural capacity to store CO2 and eventually lead to land degradation. Considering
this, scientists are trying to explore better energy crops and/ or better practices that
require less resources and may not compete with food crops (Kline et al. 2016).
Nonetheless, once the CO2 has been captured and concentrated it needs to be stored
away permanently in order to complete the carbon dioxide removal process. One
popular option in this case is geological sequestration, which is to inject concentrated
CO2 deep underground in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs or saline aquifers. Several
studies in recent years have estimated the potential global geological CO2 storage
capacity, the estimates range from a few thousand GtCO2 to tens of thousands of
GtCO2 (Benson et al. 2012; Dooley 2013). In comparison, the total anthropogenic
carbon emissions to date are on the order of ~2000–2500 GtCO2 . So, in principle,
there is enough capacity underground to sequester human-caused carbon emissions.
There are, however, some challenges in implementation and potential side-effects
that must be taken into account.
The current global CO2 capture and storage capacity of large-scale facilities,
including those that are in the development stages, is on the order of ~100 mega tonnes
of CO2 (MtCO2 ) per year (Global CCS Institute 2020). There is a long way to go
before we reach the scale that is necessary to achieve the Paris Climate targets, which
would be on the order of ~ 10GtCO2 /year. The CO2 captured has to be transported
from the source (typically fossil-fuel or biomass-based power generation facility)
to the sequestration facility in pressurized containers or through pipelines. There
are also important considerations regarding the long-term integrity of the geological
carbon sinks that must be considered. Some studies have shown that leakage of
CO2 , depending on the characteristics of the reservoir, is possible, however, the
probability decreases over time as the CO2 is sequestered through secondary trapping
mechanisms (GEA 2012). Studies also show that large amounts of injected CO2 could
increase the risk of seismic events (earthquakes) which in turn could destabilise
the reservoir and lead to CO2 leakage (National Research Council 2013; Gan and
Frohlich 2013; Zoback and Gorelick 2012). There are some proposals of sequestering
carbon dioxide under the ocean depths as well, at 1000 to 3000 m depth where it
could be stored for hundreds to thousands of years before it returns to the atmosphere
through natural ocean circulation (Rau 2011). However, there are a few unknowns
in terms of the biological impacts, potential costs, and long-term efficacy of this
approach, hence it has primarily been discussed at the academic level so far and not
been demonstrated at scale yet. A lot more research is needed to identify practical
solutions to the problems mentioned above in order to make BECCS an effective
CDR option that can be deployed at large-scales (Stavrakas et al. 2018).
3.4 Direct Air Capture
Direct Air Capture (DAC) and Storage (DACS) is a relatively new and purely tech-
nological methodology that is being debated more and more in climate mitigation
discussions. As the name suggests, it is a process in which CO2 is captured literally
out of thin air and concentrated before it is utilised in other processes or sequestered
underground. The separation of CO2 from air is typically carried out using chemical
sorbents (amine- or hydroxide-based), which must then be regenerated to produce
a stream of pure CO2 (Sans-Perez et al. 2016). There is a very important difference
between DACS and conventional CCS or BECCS which is that conventional CCS
extracts carbon from a ‘point source’ such as an exhaust at a fossil-fuel power gener-
ation plant while in DACS CO2 is captured from ambient air. A point source is, of
course, much more concentrated in CO2 than air which makes DACS a much more
challenging task.
Since the CO2 concentration is very low in air, the amount of work required to
‘capture’ it is significantly greater compared to conventional CCS or BECCS where
the CO2 concentrations are much higher (Wilcox et al. 2014, 2017). Therefore,
DACS is more energy intensive, it requires at least 2 to 10 times the amount of energy
required to capture CO2 from point sources. Of course, the energy for operation must
come from CO2 -free renewable sources in order to be optimal as a CDR technique.
Another consequence of the low CO2 concentration in air is that the absorption
device must have a large cross-sectional area, in order to get the most exposure, and
be very shallow, in order to avoid a pressure-drop. In comparison, a similar device for
point-source capture is likely to be tall and thin. DACS facilities, therefore, tend to
be much larger in size and require bigger land areas. Due to these reasons, the costs
associated with DACS are prohibitively high in comparison to other CDR techniques
and current estimates range widely (on the order of a few hundred US dollars per
tonne of CO2 to a thousand US dollars per tonne of CO2 ) depending on the underlying
assumptions and the type of air capture methodology considered (House et al. 2011;
APS 2011; Mazzotti et al. 2013).
Finally, once the CO2 is captured, it needs to be sequestered or utilised in some

way, as is the case in BECCS described in Sect. 3.3. In this context, there is one
advantage of DACS over BECCS which is that a DACS facility, in principle, does not
have a site-specific limitation. In other words, a DACS facility can be installed with
or close to a carbon sequestration or utilisation facility and minimise transportation
costs. The DACS technology is at a very nascent stage of development with only
small-scale experiments carried out to date. Before it could be implemented at a
large-scale, carbon sequestration technologies would have to be well established
and the energy-land requirements would have to be addressed. For DACS to make
commercial sense, it would have to be supported by effective policies that incentivise
negative carbon emissions even as the technology approaches optimal efficiency.
4 Current Challenges and Way Forward
As was also discussed in Section II, the Working Group three (WG3) of the IPCC
AR5 as well as the IPCC SR15 presented an elaborate explanation for the need for the
Negative Emissions Technology (NET). The achievement of both the 2 °C target as
well as the aspirational target of 1.5 °C by 2050, according to nearly 900 mitigation
scenarios generated through integrated assessment models (IAMs), will heavily rely
on the use of NETs. As the remaining “carbon budget” continues to deplete at a fast
pace, the debate on negative emissions, which is fraught with political and ethical
concerns, has gained momentum in the face of accelerated pace of emissions (Hilaire
et al. 2019; Rogelj et al. 2018; Quere et al. 2018; Fuhrman et al. 2019). Although
the projected benefits of these technologies provide a hopeful picture, most of them
have not moved beyond small-scale demonstrations on the ground to be viewed as
cost-optimal alternatives. Several studies have argued that NETs cannot be viewed
as panacea to overcome the political inertia which dominates our current responses
to the problem of anthropogenic climate change (Anderson and Peters 2016). NETs
cannot and should not be viewed as an insurance policy, but rather an unjust and
high stakes gamble which is likely to raise a number of other concerns both moral
and socio-economic in nature. In this climate of political and scientific uncertainty,
it is important to flesh out these concerns which are likely to raise as large-scale
deployment of NETs become feasible.
4.1 Ethical Concerns
Although the debate surrounding the NETs is fairly recent in its origins, but they are
rooted in a longstanding discourse which began in the post-World War II period and
posed the question regarding the role of modern technology in dealing with the social
issues and environmental problems. At the birth of the environmental debates in the
1960s, the technological solution to the problems of ecology became a paramount
concern as scientists, engineers, innovators and policymakers emerged as the lead

actors in society. The technological fix was seen at the time as the logical solution to
the problems, but it proved to be a short-sighted way of tackling the ecological issues,
especially as their complexity of the challenge grew and several ethical concerns
were raised with regards to the role of unfettered technological fixes in an unequal
world. Much of the criticism focused upon the reductionistic nature of such solu-
tions, wherein the rational decision-making approaches overlooked the key concerns
that emerged from an ethical and socio-political standpoint. The primary concern
with technology, from an ethical standpoint, was the asymmetry of power between
the states, and inequity between individuals. This criticism has been extended to
the debates surrounding the NETs as well, wherein it is viewed as myopic in its
understanding the scope of the problem, which carries the risk of disempowering the
marginalised voices and their concerns, all in the name of universal good.
In a 2012 study conducted to understand the divergent claims and opinions on the
NETs, an ethical matrix of carbon capture and storage was created, wherein principles
of justice and a set of actors, including the non-human actors, were selected to under-
stand the diverse framings of justice in the context of carbon capture and storage. It
particularly considered the divergent concerns of different actors, including the non-
human actors were assessed to frame the problem (Boucher and Gough 2012). The
study found that the ethical framing of negative emissions technologies will require
a mapping of, “a global network of localised researchers, communicating regularly
with each other to understand the relationship between different actors’ understand-
ings of principles and the technology’s compliance with and deviation from them with
sensitivity to the significant cultural and linguistic diversity that would be encoun-
tered.” CCS presents a more complex ethical problem than the other alternative of
renewable energy and the reasons for this include- Firstly, the accrued benefits of
the CCS are tied to its storage and the effects of the stored CO2 persists for a long
time. Secondly, the CCS technology carries the risk of extended dependence on fossil
fuels rather than fuel a just and green transition. Thirdly, both its costs and benefits
will be unevenly distributed, where the poorest people will be unevenly impacted by
the transition. Finally, the detractors of the CCS point towards the intergenerational
legacy of its impact, especially in terms of waste management, where strong parallels
have been drawn with risks involved in nuclear waste management (Brown 2011).
Compared to CCS, BECCS is held up as a greener alternative which overcomes the
limitation of storage. However, it raises a whole different set of problems and ethical
complications such as, “the costs of low-carbon energy will ultimately have to be
met by consumers with knock-on effects on pricing and fuel poverty” (Gough et al.,
Social and Ethical Dimension of BECCS 2018). Like CCS, BECCS carries the risk
of promoting the business-as-usual rates of fossil fuel consumption and hinder the
growth and transition in poorer countries, who may lose land and resources at the altar
of unchecked consumption in the developed world (Gough et al. 2018). Bioenergy
production at scale will require large scale deployment of land and other resources
to meet the carbon sequestration demands, which carries the risk of creating a food-
water-energy nexus, especially in poorer countries where technologies like BECCS
will compete with agricultural lands for meeting such demands (Kato and Yamagata
2014). The large-scale deployment of BECCS could endanger, “terrestrial species

losses equivalent to, at least, a 2.8 °C temperature rise, leading to difficult trade-offs
between biodiversity loss and temperature rise” (Anderson and Peters 2016).
The carbon sequestration technology also becomes difficult to implement from a
procedural justice point of view (Ambrose and Arnaud 2005). While a business-as-
usual scenario will raise legitimate concerns and claims from countries and commu-
nities who are facing the risk of extinction, but on the other hand a hard push for the
such technologies could promote extractivist activities, particularly coal, and add to
the vicious circle of poverty in many parts of the world (McLaren 2012). Unlike the
nuclear power discourse, where level of public awareness and emotiveness is high,
CCS and other similar technologies have not generated widespread public debates.
Therefore, the debate on the ethics and public debate regarding the NETs has ranged
from ‘prudent pessimism’ to unshaken optimism in technological solutions at large.
Yet another criticism of the NETs emerges from the underlying assumptions about
the reversibility of the problem and management of Nature through technology. This
has been criticised as a case of hubris, where political and ethical solutions to the
problem are sidestepped in the name of effectiveness. While it is true that NETs are
not the pure cases of manipulation of Nature, such as the solar radiation manage-
ment (SRM), but it is equally true that, “achieving the more stringent 1.5 °C target
requires between 400–1000 GtCO2 to be removed from the atmosphere via NETs.
At current rates, utilizing BECCS or DAC to achieve this would imply storing 10–
25 years of global CO2 emissions under the Earth’s crust. There are great dangers in
overestimating our ability to do this justly, safely or effectively” (Lenzi 2018).
4.2 Political Economy of Carbon Sequestration
If the negative emissions technologies grow over the next a few decades, it will be
driven by two contrasting forces- firstly, the economies of scale will be a critical
factor in achieving any mass scale production and reducing cost of production over
time. Secondly, as is case with all technological shifts, there will be a set of losers
and winners in this transition. Resource scarcity is one of the central concerns that
are likely to emerge in developing and poor countries where several socio-economic
factors are critically linked with the climate policy. It is important to understand both
these factors, in order to predict the fate of negative emissions technologies.
4.2.1 The Problem of Scale
A 2014 study by Mercator Institute found that an annual average of 6 billion tonnes of
atmospheric CO2 removal by the year 2050 would require a scale up rate of close to
60%. This figure is far lower than the one the IPCC AR5 of 2014 suggests between the
range of eight and twelve billion tonnes. If the carbon removal technologies have to
emerge as an alternative, they require a rapid scaling up of operations to be commer-

cially viable and politically feasible. A key strategy to meet this target would require
heavy investments in research and innovation, which, in this context, includes supply-
side research and development of technologies and a demand side uptake, which is
subject to greater public acceptance of such technologies. Most NETs are currently
in nascent stages of production, often limited to small scale experimentation. The
projected levels of carbon dioxide removal and storage through ‘sinks’ varies from
100 to 1000 GtCO2 , depending on the how well the Paris pathways to zero net emis-
sions are met through traditional, biological and geochemical processes over the next
decades (Geden 2019).
Apart from the scale of economic investments, one key factor that will drive
the innovation process is the political will to engage in the process. Artificial sinks
are currently viewed as an additional option which can enhance the existing sink
capacity that is available in the form of the natural ecosystems like tropical forests,
peatlands and oceans (Peck et al. 2010; Ma et al. 2012; Nabuurs et al. 2013; Pan et al.
2011). The rapid decline of the natural equilibrium of ecosystems around the globe
is leading to a disruption in the carbon cycle and increased accumulation of carbon in
marine and terrestrial carbon sinks, disrupting the critical carbon budget estimates.
The terrestrial sinks and oceans removed nearly 32.6 and 25.3% of fossil fuel based
industrial emissions, respectively, in the brief period of 2007 to 2017 (Kennan and
Williams 2018; Le Quere et al. 2018; Penuelas et al. 2017). In an extensive study
of Peruvian Amazon, one of the largest natural existing sinks in the world, found
that, much like the loss of peatlands in Siberia, South-East Asia and Canada, these
peatland ecosystems are losing peat carbon to the atmosphere at a rapid pace due to
external pressures such forest fires, intensive agriculture, and deforestation, which
puts them at a risk of transforming into carbon sources rather than sinks (Wang et al.
2018).
Therefore, as the stresses on natural ecosystems increase, an important factor in
scaling up carbon dioxide removal operations will be pace of innovation and their
removal efficacy. A number of recent studies have yielded the results that favour
a joint implementation of different kinds of technologies to maximise the negative
emissions potential (Chen and Tavoni 2013; Marcucci et al. 2017). NETs technolo-
gies pose a different scaling up challenge, wherein BECCS will require massive
upscaling on the ground and wider resource mobilisation, both of which are currently
on short supply due to legislative and legal factors (Kemper 2015). In the case of
Direct Air Capture with Carbon Storage (DACCS), the primary challenge remains
the mass manufacturing. In the absence of large-scale demonstration, both feasi-
bility and investment come into question for new technologies. Therefore, in order
to attract investments, challenges related to feedstock availability, transportation, and
system integration will have to be addressed on the supply side. The demand-side
will require a greater emphasis on the construction of demonstration plants which
can overcome the investor anxieties in a niche market that is both volatile and riddled
with uncertainties due to factors like climate change policies (Iyer et al. 2015; Gough
and Upham 2011).
In a recent survey conducted on the topic of socio-political mobilisation for the

NETs, it was found that while BECCS feature extensively in the IAM projections,
there is very little policy attention given to this topic, especially compared to nuclear
power, thus raising concerns about their short-term uptake and feasibility (Fridahl
2017). The survey further found that, “if political, industrial, and public priorities
result in preconditions for BECCS that disfavour deployment, then allowing an over-
shoot in pathways to limit temperature increase to well below 2 °C will have to rely
either on other CO2 -removal technologies or on relatively cheap but unproven and
potentially dangerous solar radiation management technologies.” Recent studies have
argued that full decarbonisation within a single generation is critical in order to meet
the 1.5° target in the Paris Agreement. It is argued that an estimated 10–20 Gt CO2 will
have to be removed annually, which adds up to staggering 444–1000 Gt CO2 removal
by the year 2100 (Boysen et al. 2017). Such a massive scale of operation makes NETs
virtually unavoidable for stakeholders, although such an expansion remains unprece-
dented in history. A peculiar trend is anticipated from a rapid and massive scaling
up operations wherein, “costs would initially fall as the technology matures, and
rise again as the resource scarcity of biomass (and to some extent storage) kicked
in… Classical mitigation costs are expected to increase continuously from current
levels as ‘low-hanging fruit’ are depleted and given the necessary increase in ambi-
tion compared to current mitigation action” (Honegger and Reiner, The political
economy of negative emissions technologies: consequences for international policy
design 2018). In their 2011 study of climate mitigation options, Gough and Upham
(2011) favoured a smaller scale CCS or BECCS innovation as an exaggerated scale
will eventually run into issues such as accessible infrastructure, resource scarcity.
Their study further argued that bioenergy potential should not be projected exten-
sively, given the lack of data on, “the cost of connecting bio-processing (combustion,
gasification or other) infrastructure with CO2 storage sites.”
The uptake of new technology will, therefore, depend on overcoming the key
constraints in the path to maturation of NETs, which includes the absence of capital,
lack of political will, the near absent public demand and teething issues such as
the free rider problem in the sector which inhibit innovation. This failure to grow
is often described as a ‘valley of death’ problem, wherein new start-ups, and new
technologies often fail to demonstrate their reliability at scale, which deters financial
investors and results in such technologies never reaching the commercial markets
where could expand (Nemet et al. 2018; Ford 2007).
4.2.2 The Resource Scarcity Question
While the NETs offer a critical pathway to the Paris Agreement targets, they will run
up against a number of ecosystem-based constraints which includes the emerging
food-water-energy nexus, massive changes in land use change (LUC) across the
world, governance of artificial carbon sinks and anthropogenic climate change.
Therefore, the technological transition cannot merely be seen as a technical tran-
sition; rather they have to be understood in the broader socio-technical landscape,
where the impact of transition of socio-economic lives as well as planetary boundaries

will be enormous (Creutzig et al. 2015; IPCC 2019). BECCS offers great prospects in
meeting the Paris targets, their implications for a broad range of issues such as LUC,
food security, energy security, water security, socio-political systems are relatively
under researched (Fuhrman et al. 2020). It is an important aspect of the transition that
NETs are attempting to bring about and highlight the often-neglected regional scale
of these technologies. While the economic thinking and IAM projections are more
focused on upscaling, a resource constraint on regional scale will pose a parallel, but
equally vexing challenge for states and policymakers (Tian et al. 2016; Fuss et al.
2014; Zilberman 2015). The IAM projections which are highlighted in the IPCC
AR5 rest on the assumptions based on perfect knowledge of yet unseen technolo-
gies and their cost-optimisation. One important consequence of this method is that
it gives less weightage to future expenditure, in comparison with the present-day
costs, thereby creating an impression that delay in action is a favourable strategy in
the short run (Brack and King 2020; Bednar, Obersteiner and Wagner 2019).
Bioenergy is currently the source of nearly 10% of global energy supply, espe-
cially in the poor and developing countries, where people depend on these sources for
daily needs like household cooking. These sources of bioenergy, therefore, cannot be
shifted towards BECCS without accommodating for the needs of the poorest popu-
lations around the world (see Fig. 4.1). One of the major positives for the transition
towards NETs relates to their potential to reduce dependency on fossil fuels. This
claim, however, remains subject to both scrutiny and criticism. A 2018 study on
the energy balance of BECCS highlighted that BECCS energy output will remain
lower than the projected rates and returns will vary sharply on a case-to-case basis
(Fajardy and Mac Dowell 2018). The study further observed that, “biomass conver-
sion and CCS, followed by transport (road), drying, and farming (including inputs)
represented over 80% of the energy losses for high moisture and low yield biomass
such as willow pellets. Power plant efficiency, fuel efficiency for transport, transport
Fig. 4.1 Cumulative CO2 removal from BECCS under 1.5 °C policy with BECCS. 84% of BECCS
deployment occurs in developing nations, with 26% alone in Africa. Source Fajardy, M., Morris,
J., Gurgel, A., Herzog, H., Mac Dowell, N. and Paltsev, S., 2020. The economics of bioenergy with
carbon capture and storage (BECCS) deployment in a 1.5 C or 2 C world
distance, moisture content, drying method, as well as yield were thus identified as key
parameters that need to be carefully controlled to maximise BECCS net electricity
balance.” As a way forward, the emphasis should be to disincentivise the usage of
fossil fuels and invest in scaling up of operations to build reliable storage of CO2 to
meet the net-zero targets.
Yet another concern regarding the feasibility of such projects relates to their impact
on natural resources and their local management. Water is a key point of concern in
this regard as NETs projects are likely to lead to an increase in the water usage, which
will be diverted towards the irrigation of bioenergy cultivation at a mass scale. Such
large-scale shifts in the cropping patterns and potential rise in demand for biofuel
crops will lead to higher stress on water tables, degradation of freshwater bodies
and loss of biodiversity. In the context of climate change induced stresses, such
diversions of key resources of survival will make any NETs project politically and
socially unviable, especially in resource stressed regions of the world (Smith et al.
2016; Burns and Nicholson 2017; Gough and Mander 2019; Forster et al. 2020). The
2018 Royal Society report on Greenhouse Gas removal warns about the unintended
consequences of the NETs, where, “indirect land-use change can involve spatial
leakage—efforts to increase or protect forests in one location, without measures
to meet demand for crops or ranching for meat, may push up crop and meat prices,
increasing deforestation in another location.” (The Royal Society 2018) A 2014 study
on the future land-use scenario found that it would take a ten-fold increase in the
yield of first-generation bioenergy crops like maize, sugarcane and rapeseed before
2055, thereby raising the demand for nutrient inputs, water, high fertiliser input.
In addition to the increased cost of input and higher land use change, BECCS also
carries the potential of increased nitrous oxide release into the atmosphere, thereby
creating a new set of challenges (Kato and Yamagata 2014; Crutzen et al. 2016).
It is important to understand both the planetary scale impact of NETs as well as
their regional, localised impacts, in order to make the right trade-offs. The deployment
of CDR technology is projected to rise as the rates of carbon emissions rise, therefore,
it has to be subjected to greater scientific scrutiny and socio-political analysis. The
challenge for the policymakers will be to find the right equilibrium and appropriate
scale for employing such technologies so as to yield their intended benefits.
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Carbon Credit and Climate Change
Nexus
Jasmeet Singh Bajaj
Abstract This chapter reports the evolution of different approaches to tackle the
problem of climate change and how carbon credits have provided a boost to address
some of the associated glaring issues. The quantifiable approach toward measuring
and mitigating the climate change impact is also captured. The chapter also provides
analysis of key drivers to push the carbon credit mechanism. Under the Paris Agree-
ment, the ambitious targets to retain global warming below 2 °C and attain an
equilibrium of emissions needs a significant investment which is perceived as a
major problem. The carbon market linkages are considered an important tool to
contribute to the solution. The past experience of putting a price on carbon in
different regions/countries and its impact toward adoption of technologies during
last two decades is also captured. The information is encapsulated as case studies
of various emission trading systems and carbon tax implementations across coun-
tries. Carbon credit has a great significance of in the current context of international
climate change negotiations under the Paris Agreement. The future uncertainties and
threats paving the path for voluntary carbon market is also explained at length. The
positive outlook and thrust toward capturing the real impact within carbon credit
is something under development. Post 2020, it is expected that precise quantified
approach will be increasingly established to explain carbon credit node with climate
change.
Keywords Carbon credits · Climate change · Paris agreement · Global emissions ·

Climate action · Climate finance
Abbreviations
AAUs Assigned Amount Units

BAU Business As Usual
CCBA Climate, Community and Biodiversity Alliance
J. S. Bajaj (B)
Fair Climate Fund India, New Delhi, Delhi, India
236 J. S. Bajaj
CDM Clean Development Mechanism

CERs Certified Emission Reductions
COP Conference of Parties
CORSIA Carbon Offset and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation
EEA European Economic Area
EIT Economies in Transition
ERUs Emission Reduction Units
EU European Union
EU ETS European Union Emission Trading System
GHG Green House Gases
ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization
IPCC Inter-governmental Panel of Climate Change
KETS Korean Emission Trading Scheme
ITMO Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes
NDC Nationally Determined Contributions
NZ ETS New Zealand Emission Trading Scheme
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
SDG Sustainable Development Goals
SDM Sustainable Development Mechanism
Swiss ETS Switzerland Emission Trading System
UNFCCC United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change
VCS Verified Carbon Standard
1 Introduction
COVID-19 crisis has shocked the world, and all the countries are facing its brunt
irrespective of their socio-economic background. The awful scenario of the world
economy and the number of tragic deaths has shaken the growth and development
pathways for many nations. The current pandemic cannot be compared with anything
else. Still, if corrective measurements are not taken in time, the other crisis such as
that of climate change that is being created could be worse than the current pandemic.
The average temperature of the earth’s surface has already amplified by 1.7 degrees
Fahrenheit since 1880 (Gillis 2017), which is roughly equal to 400,000 Hiroshima
atomic bombs exploding across the planet every single day. The development of
the UNFCCC, which came into force in 1994, established the stage for solving the
problem of climate change.1 The international negotiation arena between various
nations also started in 1995,2 over 25.3 climate conferences have been conducted,
known as COP.
1 https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-convention/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-
convention-on-climate-change.
2 https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/cop1/07a01.pdf.
3 https://unfccc.int/process/bodies/supreme-bodies/conference-of-the-parties-cop
Carbon Credit and Climate Change Nexus 237
Fig. 1 Milestone of International Climate Change Negotiation Events. Reference—Illustration by

Desiree Llanos Dee, Forest Foundation Philippines and Parabukas (2019)
The annual COP is an important event to discuss and evaluate the progress made
globally to address climate change issues. From COP1 to COP25, several milestones
have been achieved, including target setting and evolution of market mechanism. The
below-mentioned timeline of annual COP meetings reflects the significant indicators,
tools, and rules designed and implemented by the world to combat the climate change
impacts.
The IPCC was established in 19884 to collate the data of GHG emissions and
analyze its impacts to design the mitigation and adaptation tools. IPCC’s primary
focus was to intensify scientific research and create a knowledge bank for different
countries to take necessary action. The report published by IPCC5 in 1990 empha-
sized that climate change is real, and its distressing impacts on livable habitations
are evident.
2 COP3—Kyoto Protocol
The preliminary decision in the history of climate change negotiation was to adopt
the Kyoto treaty in 1997 at Kyoto, Japan. One hundred ninety-two countries later
ratified the treaty6 to check on six gases’ concentration level (CO2 , CH4 , N2 O, HFC,
PFC, SF6 ). The targets were set for Annex I countries (those were a member of the
OECD in 1992 including countries in EIT) to reduce total GHG emissions by at
least 5% regarding the base emission level of 1990. “The Kyoto Protocol was the
first international piece of law that tried to articulate an idea of carbon rights and
creating a market” by Martijn.
4 https://www.ipcc.ch/about/.
5 https://www.ipcc.ch/report/climate-change-the-ipcc-1990-and-1992-assessments/.
6 https://unfccc.int/process/the-kyoto-protocol/status-of-ratification.
238 J. S. Bajaj
Wilder. The development of the international carbon market is considered as

one such tool to implement these mechanisms. To achieve the respective targets
of obligated countries (Annex I), the Kyoto Protocol launched three mechanisms
(Fig. 1).
Joint Implementation7
Under article 6 of the Kyoto Protocol, the emission reduction or emission removal
project can be developed within Annex I countries. Surplus units of emission reduc-
tion called ERUs can be transferred from one country to another to meet their targets
committed under the Kyoto Protocol.
Clean Development Mechanism8
Under article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol, the CDM gives Annex I countries the flex-
ibility to take up emission reduction project activity in a developing country where
the cost of reducing the GHG emission is significantly lower. The unit of emission
reduction under this mechanism is known as CERs.
Emission Trading9
Under article 17 of the Kyoto Protocol, the countries falling under Annex B list may
participate in emission trading to fulfil their commitments. The limits are assigned
for emission reduction by AAUs. Emission trading allows those who have spare units
to sell.
The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997, but it took eight years for all the parties
to bring the Kyoto Protocol into force in 2005. The regulated or ‘compliance’ markets
were enforced under climate policies for countries to meet binding emission reduction
targets set by governmental agencies (Paterson 2011). In 2008, the first commitment
period of the Kyoto Protocol was started and concluded in 2012. The second term of
the commitment period began from 2013 to 2020 at COP18, which lead to the Doha
Amendment.10
3 Evolution of Carbon Market
As mentioned in the introduction, the idea of a carbon market initiated under Kyoto
protocol evolved further by entering into the Paris Agreement. The carbon market
currency was CO2, wherein 1 tonne of CO2 is equivalent to one credit unit traded in
the market. During evolution, the market of carbon credit divided into compliance
and voluntary markets. The compliance carbon markets focus on national govern-
ments’ policy tools to keep a check and regulate the emission within a particular
country’s boundaries. On the other hand, the voluntary market got the traction to
7 https://unfccc.int/process/the-kyoto-protocol/mechanisms/joint-implementation.
8 https://cdm.unfccc.int/.
9 https://unfccc.int/process/the-kyoto-protocol/mechanisms/emissions-trading.
10 https://unfccc.int/process/the-kyoto-protocol/the-doha-amendment.
assess carbon emissions’ quality with other sustainable development parameters like
poverty, livelihood, gender, etc.
The key features of carbon credit needs to be put in a separate box on the left side
in parallel to the first paragraph of chapter “evolution of carbon market”.
• Additional
• Real
• Measurable
• Permanent
• Independent
• Unique
The compliance market represents a significant share of carbon credit transactions.
The key stakeholders are companies and governments that by law should keep a check
of their GHG emissions. This global compliance carbon market was also further
linked with the national carbon reduction regimes by many countries. It resulted
in the inception of cap and trade, carbon tax and carbon pricing program. As on 1
August 2020, 64 carbon pricing initiatives were either implemented or scheduled
for implementation. The overall reach of these initiatives covers 46 national and 35
subnational jurisdictions. (World Bank 2020) (Figs. 2 and 3).
The carbon pricing initiatives are integrated with offsetting and carbon credit
mechanism. However, there are special conditions put in by various initiatives
which either boost or reduce the international demand for carbon credits under the
Kyoto mechanism for some sectors and geographies. The primary stakeholder of
compliance markets is national governments which drive the mechanism, as devel-
oping countries were exempted from the compliance mechanism (Shishlov et al.
2016). Besides the compliance demand, it has been observed that some groups are
comprising of the private sector, public sector participation in the carbon market
•1997 - Kyoto Protocol Signed

•2005 - Kyoto Protocol enters into force
•2011 - California's cap-and-trade adopts climate action reserve
protocols
Compliance Market •California Cap-and-trade launched
Development
•2013 - Warsaw Framework on REDD+
•2015 - Launch of Sustainable Development Goals
•2016 - Paris Agreement enters into effect
•2018 - Columbia carbon tax recognize voluntary standards
•2003 - Launch of Gold Standard

•2005 - Launch of Climate Action Reserve
•2007 - Launch of American Carbon Registry
Voluntary Market •2007 - Launch of Verified Carbon Standard
Development •2008 - International Carbon Reduction and Offset Alliance
(ICROA) is established
•2008 - Launch of Plan Vivo
•2011 - Launch of UK Woodland Carbon Code
Fig. 2 Carbon market development: compliance and voluntary market, author explanation
240 J. S. Bajaj
voluntarily. Various voluntary mechanisms and standards have been formulated

worldwide to meet such voluntary demand that is more customized and critical to
carbon credits’ specific fundamentals. The voluntary carbon market’s governance
is seen shifting toward the global targets to align itself with a scenario of 1.5 °C.
(Michaelowa et al. 2019).
The popularity of voluntary carbon credits has increased in the last ten years.
Several voluntary carbon standards have been established over the years; however,
the gold standard remains the most available and accepted voluntary standard under
quality certification. In total, the gold standard has implemented 800 + projects that
are spread over 65 countries. Almost 117 million tonnes of CO2 e issued under the
gold standard, out of which approximately 15% credits were issued in 2019 itself
(Gold Standard 2020). The voluntary carbon market also provides more value to
projects in terms of sustainable development as the special certification provision
quantifies the impact of SDG 3, 5, and 6. The future of voluntary carbon market
looks very promising, specific about gold standard as there is a pipeline of 2000 +
projects which reflect the potential of 170 million tonnes of CO2 per year, three times
the annual emission of Switzerland (Gold Standard 2020).
4 Climate Action—Paris Agreement
After the Kyoto Protocol, almost all the nations are in consensus to take full owner-
ship of limiting the global emission up to 1.5°. The Paris Agreement (United Nations,
2015) provides a pathway for developed nations to assist developing nations in their
Fig. 3 Global landscape of carbon pricing. Reference: World Bank, Carbon Pricing Dashboard,
Aug 2020
climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. It creates a framework for transparent moni-
toring, reporting, and ratcheting up of countries’ individual and collective climate
goals (Denchak 2018).
The Paris Agreement framework builds up a bottom-up approach wherein all the
nations determine and commit their national commitments for emission reduction.
However, there is still an unsolved puzzle for financing the NDC for developing
and least developing countries. Unlike the Kyoto Protocol, the financing obligations
are limited to developed nations, whereas under the Paris Agreement, any country,
in theory, become the buyer and seller of emission reductions. There is a provision
of bilateral cooperation under the agreement in Article 6. The three modalities for
cooperation between the parties under Article 6 are:
– Article 6.2
– The bilateral cooperation will be formed for transferring and accounting of
ITMOs. There are challenges related to the corresponding adjustment to design
implementation modalities.
– Article 6.4
– A market-based approach to implementing an existing compliance market mech-
anism under the supervision of the UNFCCC Secretariat. A Supervisory Body
will govern the mechanism, and in its activity cycle, it shares many similarities
with the CDM.
– Article 6.8
– This is expected to be a federative instrument to augment the synergies and
promote the implementation of approaches that do not involve the transfer of
emission credits. There is a need to bring further clarity on the processes.
4.1 Fundamental Difference Between Kyoto Protocol to Paris

Agreement
The whole world is waiting for the Paris Agreement’s rulebook to be adopted to avoid
further delay in combating climate change. The carbon credit mechanism played an
essential role during the Kyoto Protocol and was an integral component of the Paris
agreement. Though there are some fundamental differences like:
– Stakeholder–Action: Under the Kyoto period all the climate action was focused
on Annex 1 countries where developed nation achieves the target, whereas now in
the Paris Agreement, all the countries have made a commitment to take necessary
action at national and international level.
– Government and Non-state actors: The Kyoto period were only focused on
government action, whereas in the Paris Agreement, the inclusion of other
non-state actors has happened, especially the private sector.
242 J. S. Bajaj
– Science behind the Target: The threshold limit was not set by climate science
during the Kyoto period, the overall thrust was given to reduce the emissions.
Under the Paris agreement, science-based targets have been formulated to define
ambition.
– Mitigation and Adaptation: The climate mitigation scope was at the center during
the Kyoto period, and electricity and industry emissions were perceived as signif-
icant carbon emissions drivers. The Paris agreement expanded the lens toward
adaptation and other sectors like land use, agriculture, and forestry, that are also
substantial contributors to global emissions.
5 Need for Carbon Credits to Address Climate Change
Several debates are going on concerning the Paris Agreement to arrive at a global
consensus for establishing a market mechanism. About IPCC report, countries need to
work out a plan for a 1.5° scenario. Though the target in terms of emission reduction
is clear, there are still pending issues for forming a market approach, and carbon
credits play an essential role in addressing those points. In the global climate action
plan, the carbon credits will support in:
– Ambition Gap: It is clear from the countries’ commitment that current pledges
will not meet the 1.5 °C for which there is a need to raise the ambition and more
market-based mechanism is required to bridge the knowledge gap. The carbon
markets are an essential tool to fulfil the gap.
– Finance Gap: The targets of renewable energy need trillions, and there is a need to
have private sector engagement through the market mechanism. The carbon credit
financial tool is the only operational instrument wherein there is a high potential
to accelerate private sector engagement.
– Time Gap: The carbon credit provides an opportunity to act immediately without
further delay to implement. There is no time left to design new programmes, it is
easy to customize the carbon market’s current mechanism, and quick action can
be taken.
– Scope 3 Emissions: The carbon credit is not the ultimate tool to address climate
change. In order to reduce emissions as much as possible, operational and tech-
nological efficiency should first be implemented. However, scope three emissions
are always considered challenging to reduce, where carbon credit can play an
important role (Gold Standard 2018).
– Carbon Price: The carbon credit mechanism able to conceive a price to put
on emission. The carbon credits are not allowing carbon pollution to be free.
The markets do not exist or no rules on emission reduction—this helps align
responsibility with climate impact.
– Verified Impact: The processes are in place to independently verify the emission
as per the international standards. Different carbon standards cross-check the
parameter of climate science behind each unit of emission reduction.
6 Global Emissions and Carbon Credit
In 2018, the world’s total emissions stood at 33,513.3 million tonnes of CO2 , out of
which a 40% addition happened beyond 1990, after the establishment of the IPCC
(Frumhoff et al. 2015). The spread of the total world emissions is uneven for the
sectors and geographies. During 2000–2018, more than 80% of total emission in the
world came from three sectors only, i.e., Electricity and Heat production, Industry,
and Transport (Figs. 4 and 5).
The representation of total emission by countries depends on their economy and
the pace of their development. On average, 48% of the world’s total emissions are
only represented by four countries, i.e., Brazil, China, India, and the United States.
The above two graphs indicate the specific geographies and sectors that create
maximum impact on addressing climate change. This chapter has analyzed the carbon
Mt CO2 (106) Annually

40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Electricity and heat producers Industry Transport Total Emission
Fig. 4 Major global emission by sources, Reference—IEA 2020
Mt CO2 (106) Annually

40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
India China Brazil US Total Emission
Fig. 5 Major global emissions by countries, Reference—IEA 2020

244 J. S. Bajaj
credit impact on particular sectors like Electricity and Heat production, Industries
within the selected geographies of China, Brazil, India, and the United States.
6.1 Impact of Carbon Credit on Global Emissions
There are multiple co-relations between trading carbon credits and reducing emis-
sions at the national and international levels. Here, carbon credits’ impact is analyzed
on the carbon intensity of industrial consumption in different regions. The base level
of 2005 emissions is compared with 2018.
6.1.1 Brazil Carbon Emission and Reduction (2005–2018)
Brazil has the largest economy in South America and stands as the world’s sixth
largest GHG emissions contributor. It is a fascinating country in carbon emissions
because the largest emission source is land-use change, a debatable topic. The anal-
ysis of the actual impact is yet to gain the confidence of market players. Unlike other
countries, the delta, in per capita emissions is higher in production and consumption,
whereas the GDP per capita is comparatively lower (Carbon Brief 2019).
The total emissions generated by Brazil’s primary sources are compared with
the project developed under the carbon credit mechanism with similar timelines.
The carbon credits project demonstrates the contribution in reducing the national
emissions by 10.43 and 20.51% in Industrial and Electricity and Heat Produce sectors,
respectively (IEA 2020, UNEP DTU 2020) (Fig. 6).
In Brazil, the major acceleration in carbon emissions was due to increased oil
consumption primarily for electricity and heat production. A clear inference can be
drawn that carbon credit projects have supported the national emissions in reducing
the carbon emissions by 20% (Tables 1 and 2).
Fig. 6 Change in per Capita CO2 emissions and GDP, Brazil. Reference: https://ourworldindata.
org/grapher/co2-emissions-and-gdp?time=2005..latest&country=~BRA
Table 1 Generation and reduction of carbon emissions in Brazil

S. No Emission Type Total Emissions Total Issuances of Carbon Credit
(tCo2 ) Certified Emission Contribution (%)
Reduction (tCo2 )
1 Industrial 1287 × 106 134.21 × 106 10.43
2 Electricity & Heat 774 × 106 158.75 × 106 20.51
Produce
6.1.2 China Carbon Emission and Reduction (2005–2018)
China is the top energy user emitter11 globally and consumes 50% of the world’s coal.
China’s President’s recent commitment to going carbon neutral by 2060 (Bloomberg
2020) took the world by surprise. Being the giant consumer and emitter, their aggres-
sive approach toward reducing carbon emission can reach its peak a bit early as per
the schedule submitted under Paris Agreement (Brief 2019) (Fig. 7).
In China, the major acceleration in carbon emissions was due to increased coal
consumption, primarily for electricity and heat production. Between 2005 and 2018,
China has managed to compact its carbon intensity by 45.8% and enhanced the
non-fossil fuels to 14.3% of its total primary energy mix (Layke 2019) (Table 3).
The total emission generated by significant China sources is compared with the
project developed under the carbon credit mechanism with similar timelines. The
Table 2 Generation and reduction of carbon emissions in China

S. no Emission type Total emissions Total issuances of Carbon credit
(tCo2 ) certified emission contribution (%)
reduction (tCo2 )
1 Industrial 37,464 × 106 1216.91 × 106 3.25
2 Electricity and heat 52,334 × 106 937.59 × 106 1.79
produce
Fig. 7 Change in per Capita CO2 emissions and GDP, China. Reference—https://ourworldindata.
org/grapher/co2-emissions-and-gdp?time=2005..latest&country=~CHN l
11 https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/each-countrys-share-co2-emissions.
246 J. S. Bajaj
carbon credits project demonstrates the contribution in the reduction of the national
emissions by 3.25 and 1.79% in Industrial and Electricity and Heat Production
sectors, respectively (IEA 2020, UNEP DTU 2020) (Fig. 8).
6.1.3 India Carbon Emission and Reduction (2005–2018)
The country is categorized under developing nations, but it has been ranked as the
third largest emitter of GHG. Given that India has the world’s second largest popula-
tion with more than 1.3 billion (WBG 2019), these two figures go hand in hand. The
country still has very low per capita emissions expected to grow as economic develop-
ment happens (Ritchie and Roser 2017). The opportunity available for its population
to implement low carbon development has global importance in combating climate
change.
The total emissions generated by India’s significant sources are compared with
the project developed under the carbon credit mechanism with similar timelines.
The carbon credits project demonstrates the contribution in reducing the national
emissions by 4.63 and 1.73% in Industrial and Electricity & Heat Production sectors,
respectively (IEA 2020, UNEP DTU 2020).
Table 3 Generation and reduction of carbon emissions in India

S. no Emission type Total Emissions Total issuances of Carbon credit
(tCo2 ) certified emission contribution (%)
reduction (tCo2 )
1 Industrial 5853 × 106 270.79 × 106 4.63
2 Electricity and heat 12,234 × 106 217. 78 × 106 1.78
produce
Fig. 8 Change in per Capita CO2 emissions and GDP, India. Reference: https://ourworldindata.
org/grapher/co2-emissions-and-gdp?time=2005..latest&country=~IND
7 Paris Agreement—Implementation Pillars
The Paris Agreement implementation plan focuses on three essential pillars, which
focus on Capacity Building, Finance, and Technology Transfer. Countries’ climate
commitments so far are highly dependent on these pillars, especially for emerging
economies, where there is a massive scope of emission reduction by linking low
carbon development pathways.
7.1 Capacity Building
The responsibility of emission reduction is jointly shared by developed, developing,

and least developing countries, however, there is a significant capacity gap between
the countries to implement the NDCs. The Paris Agreement of Article 11 specifically
highlights the importance of strengthening the capacities. Support is to be provided
to developing and least developing countries toward adaptation and mitigation activ-
ities. Article 11, also highlights that nations with least power, namely “the least
developed countries and those that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects
of climate change, such as small island developing States,” are termed, recipients.
7.2 Finance
Conditional and unconditional pledges describe the need for climate financing.
Article 9 of the agreement quantifies the financial commitment needed by devel-
oped nations at $100 billion. Requirements do not explicitly match the sources of
financial obligations. The guidelines of market-based approaches will be expected to
address the existing financial gaps for climate action. The knowledge and resources
of existing carbon markets will help establish new mechanisms that are expected to
be more transparent and accountable under the universal system.
7.3 Technology Transfer
The target focus of net-zero emission through mitigation approaches underlines the
increasing operational and technological efficiency of various emission facilities. In
the Paris Agreement, Article 10 defines the long-term purpose of fully understanding
technology development and transfer “to improve resilience to climate change and
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.” In Article 4, it is guided that all the parties
shall support and cooperate in the transfer of technology and development of a new
system that reduces GHG emissions.
248 J. S. Bajaj
8 Analysis of Climate Commitments (NDCs)
There are commitments made by maximum countries as per the Paris agreement.
However, the existing obligations are also critical to keep the global emissions
within 1.5°, but there are still gaps that reflect that the current NDC is insufficient. A
quick analysis of national commitments of a few countries is given below in various
scenarios:
Based on the commitments made by different countries to hold global warming
below 2 °C, climate tracker has cross-checked the national emissions and their future
contribution to global emission. The various scenario envisaged are:
• Critically Insufficient: The countries coming under this category represent the
commitments made so far are not in line with 2 °C. With this range, global warming
will be greater than 4 °C if everybody follows the same approach.
• Highly Insufficient: The countries coming under this category represent the
commitments made so far will fall in the range of 3–4 °C.
• Insufficient: This category of countries is close to keep the target of 2 °C; however,
there is a need to increase the target slightly
• Compatible: All the countries in this range are following the 2009 Copenhagen
2 °C goal but still not consistent with Paris Agreement
• Paris Agreement Compatible: This category represents the ambition of Paris
agreement to keep the global warming up to 1.5 °C, it is intended that all the
countries should fall under this category in line with their national commitments
• Role Model: This is more than the required scenario in which countries are well
ahead on the climate action plan of the Paris Agreement
The Table 4 represents that more than 70% of the existing commitments are falling
under Critically Insufficient, Highly Insufficient, and Insufficient. There is a need to
make an extra push in policy, governance, and finance to achieve the global emission
reduction mission.
9 Carbon Credit: Finance Tool for Climate Action
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2018 special report on 1.5° hardly
left any time and reinforced the urgency of climate action. The scenario of 1.5° 570 Gt
in 2018 is diminishing, and the energy sector required $2.4 trillion in investments each
year till 2030 to undergo the necessary transformation (Thwaites et al. 2020).
On analyzing the carbon pricing of five emission trading systems already in place
and operational, the average price range in 2019 is 17.6 USD.12 By reviving the
international carbon market mechanism after the introduction of new terms, the
climate finance requirement can partially be fulfilled (Fig. 9).
12 https://icapcarbonaction.com/en/ets-prices
Table 4. NDC Commitments by countries in Paris Agreement

4oC+ <4oC+ <3oC+ <2oC+ <1.5oC+ <<1.5oC+
Critically Highly Insufficient Compatible Paris Role
Insufficient Insufficient Agreement Model
Compatible
Argentina
Australia
Bhutan
Brazil
Canada
Chile
China
Costa Rica
EU
Ethiopia
Germany
India
Indonesia
Japan
Kazakhstan
Kenya
Mexico
Morocco
New Zealand
Norway
Peru
Philippines
Russian Federation
Saudi Arabia
Singapore
South Africa
South Korea
Switzerland
The Gambia
Turkey
UAE
USA
Ukraine
Vietnam
Source https://climateactiontracker.org/
Fig. 9 Carbon price under Carbon Price (USD/tonne CO2e) in

emission trading scheme
30
2019
25
20
15
10
5
0
KETS Swiss ETS California NZ ETS Québec’s
Cap-Trade cap-trade
250 J. S. Bajaj
Paris Agreement (United Nations 2015)

“Developed country Parties shall provide financial resources to assist developing country
Parties concerning both mitigation and adaptation in continuation of their existing obligations
under the Convention.”—Article 9.1
The Financing of the Paris Agreement is explained in Article 9, which re-establishes the
guidance that developed nations should take the steering role in mobilizing finance (Article
9.3). The details of finance pledged and provided will be biennially communicated by devel-
oped countries (Articles 9.5 and 9.7). The developing nations can also contribute to financing
voluntarily (Article 9.2). The monetary transaction provision should contribute to maintaining
a balance between Adaptation and mitigation (Article 9.4). Article 6 of the Paris Agreement
use of market-based mechanisms, which may also extend a source of finance for mitigation
and adaptation actions
The target set by the world to achieve the global emission reduction target comes
with a clause of “Conditional” and “Unconditional.” The conditional clause describes
that the target will only be met if the required support will be available. The signif-
icant components of support expected by countries comprise of capacity building,
financing, and technology transfer. However, under the unconditional clause, all the
required support will be arranged by the country itself. The financing required to meet
NDC becomes more critical as market-based approaches are yet to be clarified. Some
explanations limit Article 6 mechanisms to the conditional clause of the NDCs, which
should be considered the baseline for mitigation interventions. In contrast, some
nations would instead allow crediting to contribute to the unconditional elements
and targets of the NDCs (Schneider et al. 2017).
The consolidated scale on which the developing country required climate finance
was $ 3,534 bn until October 2015, based on the information disclosed by nations
to their NDCs. Of these, $81 billion and $407 billion were requested from the
domestic and international markets, respectively, while further clarity on the type
of financing is needed for the remaining amount. The global market sources include
public funds, private investments, and carbon markets (Yeo 2015). They are consid-
ering the pipeline of voluntary carbon market projects, especially the Gold Standard,
which has the potential of generating 170 million tonnes of CO2 every year (Gold
Standard 2020). The total potential of climate finance mobilization through Gold
Standard projects within ten years will be $29.92 bn, assuming the average carbon
price of five ETS in 2019.
10 Challenges with Carbon Credit
The awareness toward climate action and environmental concerns also highlight the
possible solution like carbon credit. Though there are different opinions related to
carbon credits, this market mechanism is still operational and expected to continue
further under the Paris Agreement, with additional terms. Some of the current
concerns which should be taken into account are:
Fig. 10 Climate Finance

Request in INDCs.
Reference – Carbon Brief
2015
10.1 Real Emission Reduction
Unlike the allowances used in cap-and-trade markets, carbon credits always represent
real emission reduction from the atmosphere somewhere in the world. However, the
process of assessing the actual overall impact on global emission by carbon credit is
not clear because they are designed to be part of the overall reduction strategy, not a
replacement for other solutions.
10.2 Actual Monetary Value
The actual value of carbon credit should be more expensive to reflect the actual cost
of climate change. There is a big difference in the price of emission reductions by
various countries as the vulnerability index and baseline infrastructure also contribute
to estimating carbon credits’ actual monetary value. The current carbon markets are
not mature to reflect the real cost of carbon abatement.
10.3 Additionality
The concerns on the fundamentals of carbon methodologies and how emis-

sion reductions are calculated are being challenged nowadays by different think
tanks/governments. The need for climate finance to make the project financially
viable requires critical review. The ongoing climate negotiations are still deliber-
ating on the existing inventory of carbon credits which seems to be a business case
as usual scenario for some projects. A good number of changes are already intro-
duced at various level, and it is anticipated that the carbon market after 2020 will
take stringent measures to fix this challenge.
252 J. S. Bajaj
10.4 Double Counting
This is related to the overall accounting system of carbon credits interlinked with
compliance and voluntary carbon market. The challenge of double counting arises
if two or more entities claim the same emission reduction toward their GHG targets:
one entity could be the host country where the project is implemented and other entity
responsible for financing. If the single units of carbon credits claimed are twice for
their NDC, it impacts the market’s integrity and makes the overall plan less ambitious
in achieving the respective NDCs (Cames et al. 2016).
10.5 License to Pollute
There is a severe concern about the intentions of carbon credit buyers. The emission
reduction by purchasing the carbon credits should only be considered the last option
under the carbon reduction strategy. The carbon market provides an opportunity to
offset such emissions which cannot be further reduced or avoided by other inter-
ventions like technology and operational efficiency. Though the concept of “Green-
washing” is not valid for all, there is a need to utilize the carbon market to meet the
global targets instead of considering an escape way from obligations.
11 Carbon Markets After 2020
There is a lot of confusion in the air regarding the rules and regulation of future
carbon market. The past experiences make it very clear that regulatory uncertainty
is quite common for carbon markets. There are many speculations on the future of
carbon credits under the Paris Agreement and a big question mark on the transition of
the existing carbon market project into Paris Agreement. On the contrary, many new
programs and market developments have taken place in the last 5 years that support
carbon credits’ future in the long run. Some of the programs/schemes are discussed
below in brief:
11.1 Korean Emission Trading Scheme (KETS)
East Asia’s first mandatory Emission Trading System (ETS), The Korean Emission
Trading Scheme (KETS) came into being on 1 January 2015. Presently, an ambitious
demand to achieve 38 million international carbon credits is expected under KETS by
2030. Put differently; it would enable them to achieve Korea’s NDC target of 37%
below BAU (536 MtCO2e), which represents a 22% reduction below 2012 GHG
levels (NDC). Covering more than 600 Korean largest emitters that are responsible
for contributing 70% of national GHG emissions, the ETS is only behind the EU
ETS in terms of the carbon market size.
11.2 Switzerland Emission Trading System (Swiss ETS)
Purely on voluntary beginnings, The Switzerland (Swiss) ETS13 was initiated in

2008. Twelve years later, in January 2020 in a bid to expand its sector coverage to
domestic aviation as well as to fossil-thermal power plants, the Swiss ETS linked
itself with the EU ETS. This was to mainstream itself with NDC’s emission reduction
target of 50% by 2030 from 1990 GHG levels.
The international carbon credit from least developing countries registered and
implemented after 2012 are allowed in the ETS. The current pricing of per ton CO2 e
is 12.78 USD.
11.3 USA–California Cap-and-Trade Program
Realizing the threat of climate change and curb the continued increase in GHG
emissions, the United States of America put The California program14 in place. A
legislative directive in 2017 insisted on a cap-and-trade system post-2020 to expedite
the attainment of California’s climate goals. The California program is expected to
cover 80% of the State’s GHG emissions. The programme aims to reduce GHG
emissions by 40 percent by 2030 from 1990 GHG levels by targeting extensive
industrial installations with over 25,000 tCO2 e/year emissions. The current pricing
of per ton CO2 e is 16.84 USD.
11.4 New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS)
Integrated into International carbon market under the Kyoto Protocol, the NZ ETS
underwent a process change in June 2015. The new development saw the NZ ETS
transform into the domestic system. As an effective strategy to meet its NDC and
2030 target, linkages to international carbon markets could be a defining factor for
New Zealand. The GHG emission reduction target is for 30% by 2030 from 2005
GHG levels. The current pricing of per ton CO2 e is 16.33 USD.
13 https://icapcarbonaction.com/en/?option=com_etsmap&task=export&format=pdf&layout=
list&systems%5B%5D=64.
14 https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/cap-and-trade-program.
254 J. S. Bajaj
11.5 Canada–Québec’s Cap-and-Trade System
Although Quebec was a member of the Western Climate Initiative from 2008 onward,
its GHG emissions cap-and-trade system was introduced only in 2012. The 3-year-
long compliance obligations were initiated a year later. In 2014, Quebec formally
linked its system with California. Four years later, in January 2018, they also got
linked with Ontario. The program aimed facilities with more than 25,000 tCO2 e/Year
emissions. However, as of 2016, it also included fuel distributors that exceeded the
limit of distributing 200L or more of fuel in the previous year. The inclusion is
independent of whether the fuel emissions were less than 25,000 tCO2 e or not. The
program looks at achieving GHG emission reduction target of 37.5% by 2030 from
1990 GHG levels. The current pricing of per ton CO2 e is 16.48 USD.
12 Carbon Credit in Aviation Sector
Under the Paris Agreement, most of the emission generation scope are already
covered. However, under the transport sub-sectors, specifically air and maritime
transport are being handled by separate process and agreements. The fuels used in
these sectors are known as bunker fuel (Schnurr and Walker 2019), and GHG emis-
sions from bunker fuel were on climate negotiation plan since 1995. The ICAO has
addressed the policy regulations on emission reduction under the mandate of the
Kyoto Protocol.
In 2016, the international aviation contributed 1.7% of global CO2 emissions by
burning the fuel for combustion. In absolute terms, 560 million tonnes of CO2 by
international aviation is equivalent to total GHG emissions of Australia (547 million
tonnes of CO2 ) in 2016 (UNFCCC 2019i).
Though a lot of effort has been made to reduce aviation and maritime emissions
by technological and operational improvements, an annual average growth of 4%
and 2.6% is witnessed in aviation and naval transport since 2012. In case the aviation
and shipping sector’s situation remains unaddressed, both aviation and shipping will
contribute 20%–50% among the global CO2 emissions by 2050 (Cames et al. 2015).
In 2016, ICAO launched a new global scheme named CORSIA (Carbon Offset
and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation). It aimed to achieve carbon-neutral
growth between 2021 and 2035. This global scheme created a massive demand for
carbon credit as 2021 flights have to offset their emission growth from average
emission levels of 2019/2020. The deliberation will use existing carbon credits from
the CDM project under the CORSIA scheme (Warnecke et al. 2019).
Fig. 11 Global emission by aviation and shipping sector and its impacts
13 Carbon Credit and Sustainable Development
The carbon credits are regulated by different governance structure in which the
primary dominant system is the UNFCCC framework wherein the CDM projects
are developed. In the past decade, especially under the voluntary carbon market, the
emission reduction units have added more values to climate action. There is different
governance structure under the voluntary carbon market those are also aligned with
other sustainable development indicators like SDG 3, SDG5 and others. The analysis
of various carbon standards and their scope to cover other value additions focusing
on fragile and vulnerable communities is provided below:
Gold Standard Foundation is a decent carbon standard in the voluntary carbon
market and is known for adding carbon credit from a sustainable development
perspective. The impact of climate change is devastating for smallholder farmers
worldwide as the impacting food system and threats to agriculture-based livelihoods.
There are approximately 1.5 million Fairtrade producers in developing countries to
design a climate-resilient program. Gold Standard and Fairtrade International jointly
developed a Fairtrade Climate Standard, as a way to support smallholders and rural
communities to produce Fairtrade Carbon Credits and gain access to the carbon
market. The Fairtrade Climate Standard offers Fairtrade Carbon Credits an addi-
tional requirement over to Gold Standard certification. It makes a balance between
emission saving and sustainable development (Figs. 11 and 12).
Under the Paris Agreement, there is new activity-based SDM for countries to
achieve their NDC goals by utilizing carbon credits. To accelerate the process of
mobilizing carbon finance to the developing countries for multiple SDG benefits, the
256 J. S. Bajaj
Fig. 12 Comparison of International Carbon Standard Source Fair Climate Fund https://fairclima
tefund.nl/en/our-approach/fairtrade-climate-neutral
world bank has already designed and tested the standardized crediting framework
(SCF)15 to ensure the systematic approach toward economic and social services and
emission reductions. The framework seems to be quite promising toward article 6
activities under the Paris Agreement.
14 Conclusion
There is a lot of regulatory uncertainty on the prospects of carbon credits due to the
Kyoto Protocol’s transition to a new climate regime under the Paris Agreement. There
is a need to design and develop innovative market-based mechanisms to mobilize
climate action required finance. So far, article 6 of the Paris agreement has been
considered a bottleneck to finalize the rulebook and guidelines to operate a market-
based mechanism. The carbon credit financial instrument is the only operational
tool which is currently available. It is improbable to eliminate the carbon credit
mechanism from a climate action plan to meet global targets.
Under the Paris Agreement, it is intended to mobilize private sector financing,
and the approach of carbon markets can be instrumental in that. However, it will
be a big mistake to consider carbon credit as an ultimate solution to achieve the
Paris Agreement’s long-term goal. There is a need to revisit the fundamentals of
carbon credits like additionality, environmental integrity, and sustainable develop-
ment before integrating into the global emission target. There is a need to increase
the carbon price to reflect the real cost of GHG emissions abatement. Emerging
economies like Brazil, China, and India wherein the future emissions will follow the
uptrend due to economic development; a low carbon investment can be mobilized
through carbon markets to build a climate-resilient economy.
The demand for voluntary carbon credits increased after 2012 as some private
companies do it voluntarily as a part of their sustainability strategy to achieve climate
justice. It is expected that the scope of reducing the emissions reduction under the
Paris Agreement and keeping the ambition higher will increase the demand of inter-
national carbon credit in both compliance and voluntary carbon market. In the coming
year, the relationship between carbon credit and climate change will further legiti-
mate its impact. An integrated approach would bring the world closer to the long-term
ambition of 1.5 °C.
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mate-pledges-by-2030
Community Resilience to Climate
Change
Debbie Bartlett
Abstract This chapter provides a brief introduction to the ways in which communi-
ties and local authorities can take action to mitigate some of the most common effects
of climate and environmental change experienced in the urban environment. While
the Urban Heat Island phenomenon and the potential for green and blue infrastructure
to reduce this is well known, less attention has been paid to impacts felt by people
at street or neighbourhood scale. Increasing tree cover and vegetation is (almost)
always to be applauded and has the added benefit of contributing to drawdown and
carbon capture, particularly when trees are young and actively growing. Here, a range
of options are described and an integrated approach to incorporating Nature-based
Solutions in land use planning, combined with net-zero initiatives, is suggested as
the most effective way forward for sustainable resilient communities.
Keywords Resilience · Nature-based solutions · Heat stress · Floods
1 Introduction
The focus of this chapter is the strategies to increase community resilience to climate
change, specifically the impacts of global warming, increasing heat waves, and
extreme rainfall events in the urban environment. While attempts are underway
at global, national, regional, and local scales to reduce the rate of emissions, this
will not prevent the situation from getting worse; only when drawdown and carbon
sequestration exceed emissions will there be any move towards achieving stability.
D. Bartlett (B)
University of Greenwich, London, UK
260 D. Bartlett
2 The World is Getting Hotter
How much hotter and how fast is uncertain. The effects of 1.5 °C rise in global
temperature will be less extreme when compared to 2 °C (IPCC 2018). However,
even living under this more optimistic scenario will be challenging and the effect
on human activities and natural systems will be severe; adaptive capacity has limits.
Even in temperate regions such as northern Europe, global warming is now a reality
with regular heatwaves and I now live surrounded by vineyards with wine produced
in my village. This would have been unimaginable 20 years ago.
2.1 The Urban Heat Island Effect
The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect is the well-known phenomenon of built-up areas
being warmer than the countryside after the sun has gone down. The cause of the
UHI effect is complex but a key component is the density of buildings, which can
reduce airflow and funnel wind through the ‘canyons’ made by narrow, high sided,
streets. The geometry of the built environment also reduces ‘sky view’, the degree
of openness to the atmosphere that allows heat to dissipate. A further factor is that
many building materials absorb and store heat, releasing it when the air temperature
drops as evening draws in, particularly after hot days. The result is high night time
temperatures that make it difficult to sleep and can adversely affect the old, the young
and otherwise vulnerable groups including pregnant women.
Loss of sleep can have both short-term consequences, for example, an inability to
concentrate fully on activities the following day, with safety implications for those
driving or operating machinery, and educational performance, as well as potential
long-term health effects (Medic et al. 2017). Liu et al. (2020) analysed the corre-
lation between Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity (SUHII) and Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) for 259 cities in China between 2000 and 2015 and identified the
need for a more climate-friendly approach to the urban environment for economic
development. Costa et al. (2016) predicted that economic loss due to heat-induced
decline in productivity could reach 0.4% of Gross Value Added (GVA); for London,
UK, this could total e1.9 billion emphasising the potential severity of the financial
cost.
While the Urban Heat Island effect is usually considered to be most significant
at night, there are also significant effects experienced due to rising daytime temper-
atures, especially as the frequency of heatwaves is increasing and these are being
experienced across the globe (Seneviratne et al. 2012).
Community Resilience to Climate Change 261
2.2 Heat Stress
Campbell et al. (2018) conducted a systematic review of the research into health
of heatwaves and found that most studies had been conducted in high income mid-
latitude countries while the impact on countries, such as those in the global south,
most at risk from extreme heat were under-represented. These authors also high-
lighted that death rather than morbidity was used as the indicator of impact. Even
in the United Kingdom—a temperate zone country—it is predicted that heat-related
deaths will increase by around 250% by the 2050s modelled using the lower esti-
mated scenario for global warming (Kovats and Osborn 2016). Less extreme—but
significant—consequences are likely to be experienced in the working population,
particularly those working out of doors or in confined conditions such as factories.
Lundgren et al. (2013) explored this and highlighted the potential for heat stress
to affect productivity at global scale and to disproportionately affect developing
countries in the tropical climate zone. There has been interest in economic impacts,
particularly in Australia (Zander et al. 2015) for some time and there is evidence of
emerging interest in this topic with recent papers on the impact on workers in Brazil
and need to consider heat stress in working conditions and employment legislation
(Bitencourt et al. 2020), in India (Rao et al. 2020) and Thailand (Boonruksa et al.
2020). While the economic consequences resulting from heat stress on these groups
is apparent, there are less obvious consequences, for example, on general wellbeing,
unwillingness to undertake exercise, and increased healthcare costs for vulnerable
groups, as well as the recently revealed long-term, cumulative, effects on children’s
learning abilities, which is predicted to impact future macroeconomic growth (Park
et al. 2020).
Infrastructure is also affected by heat. Bridges, including the well-known Tower
Bridge in London, UK, became stuck open in 2019, road surfaces melted resulting in
vehicles becoming stuck and railway tracks distorted causing delays, cancellations
and potentially accidents. These phenomena are widely reported in the media and
have cost implications, either for Government or the private sector making demands
on budgets, passed on in taxation, charges, or fare increases to the public. There
are clearly also implications of heat stress and likely associated drought on drinking
water supplies, productivity of agricultural crops and livestock, as well as on wildlife
and natural vegetation with implications for ecosystem service provision in the short
term and into the future. The devastating effect of wildfires in California, United
States of America (USA), and in Australia have received worldwide media attention
and, at a smaller scale, have also been experienced in England and Mediterranean
countries.
262 D. Bartlett
2.3 Community Adaptation—Learning from the Past
Historically, communities have evolved with their ambient conditions and developed
many kinds of effective adaptive strategies these are evident, for example, in different
architectural styles, with buildings in hot countries designed to maximise ventilation,
often painted white to be reflective, and including shaded courtyards. Daily routines,
such as resting in the middle of the day and working in early morning and evening,
as well as type of clothing, colour, and material, are all examples of community
adaptation. Those in temperate areas in the north can learn from those with experience
of hot weather, for example, in the UK we could move to the Mediterranean habit of
a long midday break extending the working day to compensate. However, those in
the global south, the most likely to be most seriously affected (Lundgren et al. 2013)
as heatwaves become more frequent and extreme, will need a different approach to
meet future challenges.
3 Global Increase in Frequency and Intensity of Extreme

Weather Events
In addition to increase in average temperatures and intense heatwaves, severe storms

have become more frequent in recent years, typically of greater intensity than those
previously experienced. These have been widely covered in the media but to give a
few examples from 2019:
• Hurricane ‘Dorian’ was the second strongest ever recorded in the Atlantic affecting
the Bahamas and moving on to Western Canada.
• Cyclone ‘Idai’ caused deaths in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Mada-
gascar.
• Typhoon ‘Hagibis’ caused extensive damage in Japan.
(Masters 2020)
These have caused damage to buildings and infrastructure disrupting services,
causing displacement and significant economic and social consequences—as well
as human misery—requiring lengthy recovery periods. The psychological impact on
those experiencing repeat events can only be imagined.
3.1 Flooding
Kayaga et al. (2020) investigated the impact of flooding and heatwaves on water and
electricity supply in low-income urban settlements in Ghana, Africa. They found
increased demand for both commodities in response to heat, in water for drinking
and irrigating home gardens, and electricity for refrigeration. Ghana depends on
hydropower for about 40% of electricity generation, so drought exacerbates these

issues by reducing river flow. Conversely during flood events, water frequently
becomes contaminated and power supplies are cut off. Similar challenges will be
faced by supply companies and low-income settlements across the globe and building
resilience into the supply infrastructure is an increasing priority requiring investment.
In 2019, the USA experienced its wettest January and July 2018–June 2019 was
the wettest 12 months ever recorded in the history of the continent (Masters 2020).
While rain may be a source of celebration in some countries, particularly those with
monsoon cycles, it can also be a disaster. For example, the Indian monsoon of 2019
arrived late, and the rain was about 10% more than average. While this replenished
aquifers, addressing water shortage, and was welcomed by farmers, it also caused
extensive flooding which was the direct cause of the death of almost 2,000 people
(Masters 2020). In addition to death by drowning, heavy rainfall has, perhaps surpris-
ingly, been found to be associated with increased occurrence of ischaemic stroke,
leading to health warnings, particularly for males over 65 (Tang et al. 2020). Flooding
increases risk of waterborne disease outbreaks, for example, typhoid and cholera as
well as those spread by mosquitoes, including malaria and dengue fever (World
Health Organisation, undated). Additional problems are experienced in coastal areas
when storm surges increase the height of tides, and this is compounded by river
discharge into the sea. Hendry et al. (2019) assessed the potential for this combina-
tion to cause flood events around the UK and suggest that current flood risk assess-
ments do not adequately take the cumulative impact into account. High tides and
surges, particularly after a period of drought, caused saltwater to infiltrate aquifers’
increasing salinity.
4 The ‘Wicked’ Problem
The term ‘wicked problem’ was first proposed by Rittel and Webber (1973) and
applied to the complexities involved in identifying solutions to planning and social
policy problems. These authors outlined ten characteristics of these problems,
including multiple possible solutions, that the problem is symptomatic of other
problematic issues and that defining an end point, i.e., when the ‘problem’ has been
solved, may be impossible. Climate change is a good example. The preceding sections
have demonstrated the many different effects that climate change—and to be more
specific—changing weather patterns and events, are having on communities. The
impacts are particularly extreme for those on low incomes, living in poor quality
housing, and in vulnerable groups such as the old, the young, and those with existing
health conditions or disabilities. Clearly, there is no simple solution. While effort is
being made by countries across the world to reduce the rate of global warming by
restricting emissions of greenhouse gases while simultaneously promoting carbon
sequestration and drawdown by, for example, planting trees, even under the most
optimistic scenarios, things are not going to get better any time soon; environmental
change is occurring at an unprecedented rate and slowing this will be challenging.
264 D. Bartlett
There may well be more surprises in the future—the COVID-19 pandemic has clearly
demonstrated the unimaginable can become a reality. The need for adaptation to
increase resilience to changing environmental conditions is urgent. But how can
this be done and where does responsibility for action lie? These questions will be
explored in the following sections.
5 Developing Resilience for the Future
In the second half of the last century, space flight had put a man on the moon,
agricultural productivity increased dramatically with mechanisation, fertilisers and
pesticides, and the prevailing view was that all problems could be solved with modern
science and technology. Climate change-related issues seriously challenge this view.
Attention is increasingly turning to use nature to simultaneously benefit biodiversity
and human wellbeing with the concept of Nature Based Solutions (NbS) adopted at
the 2016 World Congress of IUCN1 and now widely accepted at global, regional,
and national scales.
NbS are defined by the IUCN as “Actions to protect, sustainably manage, and
restore natural or modified ecosystems, that address societal challenges effectively
and adaptively, simultaneously providing human well-being and biodiversity bene-
fits”.2 However, the European Commission, in transposing NbS into policy, gives
a subtly different emphasis, stating that “Nature-based solutions harness the power
and sophistication of nature to turn environmental, social and economic challenges
into innovation opportunities” (European Commission 2015).
The Global Standard for NbS was launched in July 2020 after extensive consul-
tation with potential users and identifies the following societal challenges as likely
to benefit from the application of NbS:
• Climate change mitigation and adaptation;
• Disaster risk reduction;
• Economic and social development;
• Human health;
• Food security;
• Water security;
• Environmental degradation and biodiversity loss.
(IUCN 2020)
It will be readily apparent that the impacts of climate change on communities
resonate closely with this list. I have been actively involved in promoting the NbS
1International Union for Conservation of Nature.

2See https://www.iucn.org/commissions/commission-ecosystem-management/our-work/nature-
based-solutions.
approach for some time (e.g., Bartlett 2020) and in the following sections will discuss
how these can be used to increase urban community resilience particularly with
respect to the impact of heat waves, storms and floods.
5.1 Addressing the Urban Heat Island Effect
The larger and more densely developed a city is, the greater the UHI will be, with
heat stored in the built fabric being released as air temperature drops as the sun goes
down in the evening. This is widely understood, and the properties of construction
materials are now included in the design process but there are cost implications.
Traditionally, buildings in many parts of the world are painted white which reflects
heat-reducing UHI potential. This strategy is now becoming more widespread with
‘cool’ pavements with reflective coatings promoted as a simple low-cost solution
(Middel et al. 2020), however, Taleghani and Berardi (2018) found these materials
could negatively affect pedestrian thermal comfort, making them feel hotter, and also
increase wall and internal building temperature (Nouri 2015). A further issue is that
manufacture of cool pavements requires more energy and carbon in manufacture
than conventional ones (Gilbert et al. (2017). This is a complex area of significant
current research interest, exploring options such as incorporating reflective material
into paving. Macintyre and Heaviside (2019) explored the potential for cool roof
technology to mitigate UHI in the UK and predicted this could reduce heatwave
mortality by 25%. They suggested most benefit would result from this being applied
to large commercial and industrial buildings rather than individual houses.
There is no doubt that the most effective way to address the UHI is to increase
the proportion of green and blue elements in the built environment. This is clearly
demonstrated by the effect Richmond Park, the large area of green space to the west
of London, outlined with blue dots in Fig. 1, has. The park is not only cooler than
the surroundings, but this effect extends beyond the boundary into nearby areas. Yu
et al. (2020) carried out a critical review of the impact of green and blue infrastructure
and reached the conclusion that these were both more cost-effective and politically
acceptable than using cooling materials.
‘Greening the grey’ is a strategic approach to build resilience to climate effects,
starting from considering the potential contribution any new development would
make to the UHI at the Environmental Impact Assessment stage in the planning
process, taking action to reduce this using design options as far as possible, and then
mitigating residual effects. The Greater London Authority (2008) published a tech-
nical report on green roofs and walls to encourage these to be included more in plan-
ning applications and this has had marked effect with, for example, the prestigious
high-rise Canary Wharf development now having around 6,000 square meters of
green roofs. There are many examples of such ‘green city’ strategies and of commer-
cial sector partnerships that enable these to be achieved. While visiting Nagpur, India,
in 2018, I was impressed with the sheer scale of the Maha Metro initiative to develop
266 D. Bartlett
Fig. 1 Urban Heat Island Map for an average summer night. Note localised cooling effect of
Richmond Park in the southwest of London. (Source Dataset available on the London Datastore.
Project was carried out by VITO as part of an EU-funded RAMSES programme on the urban
impacts of climate change)
vertical gardens on the 200 pillars raising the metro line above the road, part-funded
by offering companies free advertising in exchange for sponsorship (Fig. 2).
While such strategies have real potential as additions to commercial developments,
greater impact in residential areas is likely to come from tree planting. Urban forest
initiatives are emerging, with the aim of increasing tree canopy cover at city scale and,
although space is often at a premium, the multiple benefits—including wellbeing,
biodiversity, air quality, and carbon capture—are a strong incentive. At the local level,
communities are often active in protecting existing trees and small areas of green
space, often referred to as pocket parks, and in their home gardens. Levé et al. (2019)
have considered the cumulative effect of multiple small gardens within the urban
fabric from the perspective of pollinators; this can be significant and encouraging
individual and community gardening, a way for individuals to contribute to resilience.
Gober et al. (2010) investigated the potential for using water to mitigate UHI
but water bodies need to be strategically placed as the most effect is felt downwind.
Hathway and Sharples (2012) recorded an average reduction of 1 °C when air temper-
atures exceeded 20 °C and that this extended up to 30 m away from the river but was
negligible at 40 m. They concluded streets opening onto the river, combined with
riverbank vegetation, provided the most effective cooling.
Fig. 2 Vertical greenery on the pillars supporting the Nagpur Metro line (India, © Deepak Dhyani)
5.2 Thermal Comfort in Public Open Space
Bringing the focus from the city-wide to the local scale had resulted in increasing
interest paid to street and neighbourhood strategies to reduce the impact of rising
daytime temperatures and heatwaves. I am currently involved in the ‘Cool Towns’
Project,3 funded by the European INTERREG 2 Seas programme and sub-titled
‘Spatial Adaptation for Heat Resilience in Small and Medium Sized Cities’ (website:
https://www.cooltowns.eu). This involves partners from Belgium, France, and the
Netherlands as well as the UK, with the University of Greenwich, a member of the
scientific advisory team. The focus is on public open spaces where people, partic-
ularly those who are vulnerable, might experience stress during hot weather, and
on the small-scale interventions that can mitigate this by providing a retreat from
the heat. Part of the rationale is that there are economic costs, particularly to urban
businesses such as cafes, and shops with people are less likely to visit and spend
money when the outdoor temperature is uncomfortable.
One of the outputs from this project will be a decision support toolkit to enable the
costs and benefits of different Green Blue Infrastructure (GBI) interventions to be
considered in a site-specific context enabling the most appropriate for the situation to
be selected. There is surprisingly little real evidence on the impact green infrastructure
has on cooling local microclimates, and even less on blue. Thermal comfort is not
a function of air temperature alone but a combination of solar radiation, humidity,
3 See https://www.interreg2seas.eu/nl/cooltowns.
268 D. Bartlett
and wind speed and direction as well as the level of activity and clothing worn. It is
expressed as Physiological Equivalent Temperature or PET (Höppe 1999). The most
effective way to reduce PET when feeling hot is to move into the shade—an option
often taken by animals. Buildings provide shade as the sun moves across the sky
and tree planting can add shade in areas where it is needed, such as in open squares
and school playgrounds. Lee et al. (2020) found reduction in PET increased as trees
were closer together in east–west facing street canyons, and Massetti et al. (2019)
measured PET in the shade of similar trees planted in grass, asphalt, and gravel;
those in grass were most effective in terms of pedestrian thermal comfort. Figure 3
shows Plane trees (Platanus × acerifolia), naturally large with a dense rounded head,
trained on metal frames to maximise shade.
Where tree planting is not practical, for example in narrow streets, artificial shade
in the form of awnings or canopies can be useful. Garcia-Nevado et al. (2020)
reviewed the effect of shading devices and the use of different materials and recorded
a reduction of up to 160 C on street surface temperature. Colter et al. (2019) compared
natural and artificial shade and concluded trees were most effective. However, there
is increasing interest in artificial structures as protection against skin cancers, partic-
ularly in areas used by children, e.g., Holman et al. (2018). Two different approaches
are illustrated in Fig. 4a and b.
Green walls and facades are having a surge in popularity, despite the capital and
maintenance costs. Many claims are made about the benefits in terms of reducing
Fig. 3 Pruned trees (photo taken in Middleburg, the Netherlands, by the author)
Fig. 4 a Shade sails in a narrow street (Spain ©Visa). b Shade structure (Saudi Arabia ©Sioen
Industries)
270 D. Bartlett
Fig. 5 A green wall on an office building (©Sioen Industries)
pollution, improving air quality and reducing noise but, although the insulating effects
on internal building temperature are well established and they certainly improve the
appearance of buildings, there is little evidence that they reduce outdoor tempera-
tures significantly (Fig. 5). Water features, such as fountains, may have a greater
psychological than physiological effect as any evaporative cooling may be cancelled
by an increase in humidity that reduces thermal comfort. Despite this, water features,
including fountains, remain popular features and landmarks (Fig. 6).
5.3 Surface Water Management
Flooding is a complex topic. Causation is not simply a function of the amount of

water falling as rain but also the ability of the land to absorb it. In many cities, the
original waterways have been canalised, culverted, or diverted through pipes, and
buildings and roadways present impermeable surfaces—so where can the water go?
If waterways are at capacity and/or drains are blocked, then it will result in surface
water flooding or flash floods. The more developed an area, the more likely this is to
become a problem for local communities.
Residents affected by flooding in the UK are swift to blame the authorities respon-
sible for managing rivers demanding more dredging and silt removal in the belief that
Fig. 6 Water wall (photo taken outside Sheffield Railway Station, UK, taken by the author)
faster flow will take the water away. However, this is then likely to cause communi-
ties downstream the same problem as well as damaging the habitat and freshwater
biodiversity. Yang et al. (2019) involved people in a citizen science project looking
at the relationship between land use and flooding following Hurricane Harvey in the
USA revealing a strong correlation with industrial areas inside the city and agricul-
tural land uses in the surrounding area raising awareness of land use as a contributing
factor. A successful approach initiated by a private water company in South West
England, called ‘UpStream Thinking,’4 has now been widely adopted across the UK.
This moves the focus of flood prevention from the places affected to assessing and
improving water storage capacity across the entire river catchment. This is done by
encouraging modification in agricultural practices, such as increasing tree planting
on riverbanks, ploughing against the slope, and leaving vegetated buffer strips which
can all reduce soil erosion and so sediment load. In some places, farmers are being
financially compensated for managing riverside fields so these can be flooded when
necessary and so reduce water flowing downstream, holding it back to protect densely
populated urban areas (Cook et al. 2017). It is anticipated that direct payment for
providing NbS in this way will increase in future.
Within urban areas, there are a variety of methods that can increase resilience
to flooding at the neighbourhood scale and the general term for these is Sustainable
4 A search on YouTube will find several videos detailing this approach.

272 D. Bartlett
Urban Drainage Systems, commonly shortened to SuDs. Davis and Naumann (2017)
discuss in depth the potential for using these as Nature-based Solutions for urban flood
resilience and there is a wide palette of options. While some, such as creating wetlands
and retention ponds, require space, others are relatively simple; multiple small-scale
interventions can cumulatively have a significant effect. Introducing porous paving,
for example, using cellular blocks instead of solid paving or asphalt enables water
to soak through to the soil beneath and, if vegetated, will have an additional cooling
effect on surface temperature, as demonstrated in Fig. 7.
Tree pits are increasingly being used to provide ideal growing conditions while
at the same time slowing the rate of flow of water into drains. Although requiring
excavation of a relatively large volume of material for installation compared to the
final visible footprint (see Fig. 8) and although the tree at the time of planting may
be small, they are highly effective in mitigating runoff and removing pollution. The
number required for the greatest effectiveness is proportional to that of hard surfaces
(Grey et al. 2018).
Less technically demanding are simple rain gardens, where levels and slopes
are used to direct surface water into planted areas which then act as soakaways.
An even smaller scale approach is rainwater harvesting and storage, which be done
by individuals and households using a variety of containers and devices, such as
Fig. 7 Showing the temperature difference between vegetated and solid block paving in both full
sun and shade (photo taken with a thermal imaging camera © Leen Meheuse)
Fig. 8 Trees planted in tree pits to prevent road runoff (North Street, Keighley, Yorkshire, UK. ©
GreenBlue Urban)
guttering collecting water from sloping roofs and channelling it down into water
butts.
6 Integrated Land Use Planning for Community Resilience
The previous sections have outlined some of the key effects of global warming and
extreme weather events, both symptoms of climate change, and ways these can be
mitigated to increase community resilience. Some require intervention by the local
or regional government while others can be driven from the local, neighbourhood
level but, to be truly effective, an integrated urban design and management strategy
with local action plans is most likely to be effective. An example of how this can be
achieved is the ‘Sponge City Program’ adopted by the Chinese Government in 2013
to address the flooding associated with the rapid rate of development. The underlying
concept is to hold water in the urban area by using Nature-based Solutions. This was
piloted in 30 cities around the country and involved, for example, creating wetlands
and planting trees (Qi et al. 2020). This has been highly successful and has now been
extended both within China and beyond. While the main driver was flood resilience at
the city scale, the interventions have also been effective in mitigating the Urban Heat
Island effect and this synergy has increased the opportunity to develop public–private
partnerships to attract funding (He et al. 2019).
The benefits of green and blue infrastructure are not limited to mitigation of heat
stress and flooding but include multiple ecosystem services, for human health and
274 D. Bartlett
wellbeing as well as wildlife. The ‘green city’ concept is gaining ground globally with
the political and environmental agendas resonating in a way that leads to optimism
for the future. However, I would like to leave you with a second wicked problem—
Inequality. The communities most at risk from the effects of global warming and
extreme weather are those with the least resources to enable them to increase their
resilience; this is something we should all be working to address.
I would like to finish by asking how we can tell when resilience can be said to have
been achieved. Although politicians and funders tend to focus on the completion of
projects, developing community resilience is best considered as an ongoing process
as we are living in times of rapid and unpredictable change. An adaptive management
approach incorporating monitoring and evaluation of each initiative or intervention,
however small, will enable learning from experience and applying this to adapt and
develop resilience to future challenges.
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Realigning Developmental Programmes
for Reducing Climate Vulnerability
for Adaptation: Case Study of Mahatma
Gandhi National Rural Employment
Guarantee Scheme in India
Indu K. Murthy, Kritika Adesh Gadpayle, Pratima Bisen,

and Tashina Madappa Cheranda
Abstract India is vulnerable, in varying degrees, to multiple disasters. The risks

are compounded due to inherent vulnerabilities related to socio-economic condi-
tions, environmental and climate change. India has several flagship programmes
with large budgets, delivering serendipitous adaptation. The MGNREGS is one such
programme implementing works related to Natural Resource Management. This
chapter through analysis of the demand for works under the programme in relation
to the average annual rainfall in the different states of India examines if there are
any linkages between demand for jobs and annual rainfall. However, in contrast
to the hypothesis, there is no clear relationship, and a mixed trend is seen with
respect to work demand, employment provided, and mean annual rainfall. It clearly
highlights that there exists a fundamental disconnect between the currently imple-
mented development programmes and climate information in the different states of
India, underpinning the need for a framework for mainstreaming climate informa-
tion. The study suggests a generic strategy for mainstreaming adaptation in develop-
mental programmes and argues that a transition from being ‘reactive’ to ‘proactive’ in
approach will help build the resilience of systems and communities in the long-term.
Keywords Development · Mainstream · Climate risk · Vulnerability ·

Adaptation · MGNREGS
1 Introduction
Climate change is impacting natural resources and is projected to exacerbate, making

vulnerability reduction and adaptation in all systems and communities a necessity.
The increase in the land and ocean temperature since 1981 has been 0.18 °C per
decade (NOAA 2019). This warming has not been uniform across the world, but
the global averaged temperature shows that more areas are warming than cooling.
Globally, the past five years have been the hottest on record, and extreme weather
I. K. Murthy (B) · K. A. Gadpayle · P. Bisen · T. M. Cheranda

Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy, Bangalore, India
280 I. K. Murthy et al.
events have increased five-fold and economic losses increased by a factor of seven
over the past 50 years.
Warming of surface temperature has caused the glaciers, polar ice sheets and
freshwater ice to melt, contributing to unprecedented rise in sea level. Oceans have
warmed and expanded with nearly a third of carbon dioxide emissions absorbed by
the oceans. On the land surface, heatwaves have become more frequent, and storms
and extreme weather events, such as hurricanes are being reported more and more
frequently. Thus, climate change impacts are many and extend well beyond increases
in temperature.
An assessment of climate change over the Indian region by The Ministry of Earth
Sciences, Government of India reports changes in both temperature and rainfall
during the historical period. A rise in temperature by 0.7 °C during 1901 to 2018
is reported. It also highlights that during the recent 30-year period of 1986 to 2015,
India has recorded multiple extreme weather events including a rise in severe cyclonic
storms over the Arabian Sea, heat waves, floods and droughts. In 2018 alone, extreme
climate change events in India resulted in an economic loss of USD 37 billion,
equivalent to 10% of the Indian budget in FY2019 (Eckstein et al. 2019).
Projections into future for temperature and rainfall for the end of the century
(2099) show an increase by 4 °C or more, compared to the recent past (1976–2005),
with more frequent heat waves persisting over longer durations. Mean annual and
rainfall during the monsoon season is projected to increase but at the same time
the variability is also projected to increase—with more frequent and intense heavy
rainfall events, and extended dry spells. Sea level is projected to rise by 20—30 cm
by the end century (Raghavan et al. 2020). This is a grave threat to 70% of livelihoods
in India that are dependent on climate-sensitive sectors—agriculture, fisheries, and
forests.
2 Impacts of Climate Change and Its Implications
The sensitivity of human systems to climate change-related impacts is experienced as

changes in productivity of agro-ecological systems; economic losses due to extreme
climate events; and changes in drivers of mortality—dependent on climate, including
proliferation of infectious disease vectors in new regions (IPCC 2014a).
In India, the Second National Communications and the Biennial Update Report
2 submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) have highlighted the impacts of climate change on various sectors.
• Water resources: Changes in climate variables including temperature, rainfall and
humidity are reported to have significant long term implications on the quality
and quantity of water. In many river basins of India, precipitation is projected to
increase up to 30% during 2040–2069 and up to 50% during 2070–2099, compared
to observed data for the period 1971–2005 (Mishra and Lilhare 2016).
Realigning Developmental Programmes … 281
• Forest ecosystems: Forests in India are subjected to over extraction, livestock

grazing, fires and other anthropogenic pressures. Climate change is an additional
stress, making the forests more vulnerable.
• Agriculture and allied sectors: Climate determines agricultural productivity as
factors like temperature and precipitation act either synergistically or antagonis-
tically with other factors, affecting yield. Climate change is projected to reduce
annual agricultural income in the range of 15—18% on an average, and up to
20—25% in unirrigated areas by end century (Pathak et al. 2012).
• Human health: Climate change has various impacts on human health, including
rise in illness and deaths due to more frequent and intense heat waves, floods and
droughts. High temperature could increase the level of ‘climate altering pollutants’
other than carbon dioxide, which could exacerbate cardio-respiratory and allergic
diseases, and certain cancers (NAPCCHH 2018). Climate change may also lead
to an increase in the transmission and spread of infectious diseases.
2.1 Climate Risks and Disasters
The impacts of climate change are evident in the numbers of disasters being reported
globally. Globally, it has been reported that due to extreme weather events, economic
losses over the last 20 years have risen by 151% compared to the period 1978–1998,
resulting in a loss of US$ 2,245 billion (Pascaline and Rowena (2018). Pielke (2019)
reports a 74% increase in weather-related-catastrophe losses since 1990. Globally,
less than half of the reported losses are insured. However, in developing countries,
the proportion of insured losses is well below 10%. This is despite the increasing
number of loss events being recorded as a result of earthquakes, storms, floods and
droughts over the years.
India is vulnerable, in varying degrees, to multiple disasters. The risks are
compounded due to inherent vulnerabilities related to socio-economic conditions,
environmental degradation, climate change, etc. In terms of fatalities due to extreme
weather events in the year 2018, the Global Climate Risk Index 2020, ranks India
first. Trend analysis using decadal data from EM-DAT database shows that their
number have been continuously increasing. During 1998–2017, the average annual
extreme weather events stood at 16 events compared to 10 events during 1978–97.
This increase is reflected in the increasing trend of economic losses due to extreme
weather events.
India’s economic losses doubled in the last decade with cumulative losses for
2008–2017 estimated to be USD 45 billion compared to USD 20 billion during
1988–1997. Further, the severity of these events has been rising with passing years,
as evident from the increasing damage. All these indicate trends in impact of climate
change and the persisting biophysical and socio-economic vulnerability of systems
which is likely to exacerbate in the future under committed warming and climate
change.
Some sectors and regions have high stakes in terms of vulnerability, with respect
to climate change. Also, there are likely differences in distributional consequences
of measures taken to deal with such changes (Schneider and Sarukhan 2001). The
challenges are thus multifold given large populations lack access to energy, water,
nourishment and other basic needs, and climate change will exacerbate this challenge.
Under these circumstances, development that mainstreams adaptation, considering
current vulnerability and existing adaptive capacity is imperative.
3 Why Assess Climate Vulnerability?
Agriculture and rural communities are exposed to two kinds of climate related
stresses—current climate variability and long-term climate change. Climate vari-
ability encompasses, inter-annual variability in the onset of monsoon, seasonal rain-
fall distribution, mid-cropping season rainfall deficit, drought and unseasonal rainfall
events such as delayed arrival of sowing rains, high intensity rainfall during cropping
season, harvest season rainfall and deficit rainfall. According to observational data
in India, there is an increasing monsoon season rainfall variability, leading to fluc-
tuating crop production, low crop productivity and water shortage for agriculture,
livestock and domestic use and complete crop failure during certain years—adversely
impacting the livelihoods of rural communities. The current climate variability, the
on-going and the projected climate change could adversely impact food production,
water availability, forest biodiversity, health, etc., making systems and populations
vulnerable.
Climate vulnerability is defined as “the degree to which a system is susceptible
to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change including climate vari-
ability and extremes” (IPCC 2007). The adverse impacts of climate change will be
exacerbated in the coming decades, due to land degradation, ground water decline,
poor agriculture and water management practices, and above all inherent vulnerabil-
ities in systems and communities. Managing risks due to current climate variability
can build resilience of natural ecosystems and socio-economic systems to help cope
with current changes in climate as well as future changes, thereby limiting losses.
Adaptation to current climate risks and variability is the first step to long term adap-
tation (IPCC 2014b). The Government of India in its Nationally Determined Contri-
butions (NDC) has also highlighted the need for “Adaptation to climate change by
enhancing investments in development programmes in sectors vulnerable to climate
change, particularly agriculture, water resources, the Himalayan region, coastal
regions, health and disaster management”. Delayed action to anticipated risks is sure
to limit adaptation options and escalate costs. Thus, in order to ensure adaptation
of natural ecosystems and socio-economic systems to future climate, vulnerability
assessment is a must.
India has several large flagship programmes such as Mahatma Gandhi National
Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), National Rural Livelihood Mission
(NRLM), Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana (PMKSY), etc., with large budgets.
Many of these programmes deliver serendipitous adaptation—developmental activi-

ties undertaken incidentally result in adaptation benefits. There are a few programmes
which are climate proofed to ensure their success even under a future changing
climate. However considering climate change impacts and exacerbation of extreme
events, there is a need to move from serendipitous adaptation to climate proofing to
integrated adaptation—wherein activities undertaken to achieve development objec-
tives deliver adaptation benefits. This is considered to be a more effective approach
than discrete adaptation (Helena et al. 2014).
This concept is explored through an analysis of one of the largest social protection
programmes in the world–the MGNREGA, and a generic strategy to mainstream
adaptation in developmental programmes presented.
4 Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment

Guarantee Act
The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act was passed by the
Parliament of India in 2015. The programme is funded by the Government of India
and during the financial year 2020–21, about |760 billion has been allocated. This
programme promotes convergence with several developmental programmes.
In 2019–20, MGNREGA had a total 9.254 million works (including new + spill
over). This programme or scheme was ranked as the world’s largest public works
programme (World Bank 2015), providing social security and leading to rural devel-
opment across India. “MGNREGA aims at enhancing the livelihood security of
people in rural areas by guaranteeing 100 days of wage-employment in a financial
year to a rural household whose adult members volunteer to do unskilled manual
work”. The thrust of MGNREG Scheme (MGNREGS) is on “planning for works
related to Natural Resource Management (NRM), agriculture and allied activities
on public lands, and livelihood related works on individual land, leading to sustain-
able livelihoods and provisioning of livestock shelters for individual households”
(MoRD 2019). Despite the scale, reach and NRM focus of the programme, very
limited efforts have been made to explore the feasibility of using MGNREGS as a
vehicle to deliver vulnerability reduction and adaptation to climate change. The only
effort so far is by the DFID supported programme called Infrastructure for Climate
Resilient Growth (http://ipetechnologies.com/icrg/).
4.1 Rationale for Considering MGNREGS for Vulnerability

Reduction
There are four categories of MGNREGS works, largely related to natural resources
such as cropland, grazing land, forests and water resources (Table 1).
Table 1 Examples of works or activities under MGNREGS with NRM focus

Category Description
Category—A (public works relating to – Water conservation and water harvesting
natural resources management) structures, watershed management, micro and
minor irrigation works, renovation of traditional
water bodies; and
– Afforestation, tree plantation, horticulture and
land development work in common lands
Category—B (individual assets for – Improving productivity of lands, by providing
vulnerable sections) suitable infrastructure for irrigation;
– Improving livelihoods through horticulture,
sericulture, plantation, and farm forestry;
– Creating infrastructure for promotion of
livestock;
– Development of fallow or waste lands; and
– Unskilled wage component in construction of
houses and creating infrastructure for
promotion of fisheries
Category—C (common infrastructure for – Works for promoting agricultural productivity,
NRLM: compliant Self-Help Groups) common work-sheds for livelihood activities of
Self-Help Group
Category—D (rural infrastructure) – Works for all-weather rural road connectivity,
rural sanitation, play fields, disaster
preparedness or restoration of roads;
– Construction of buildings for village counsels,
women self-help groups’ federations, cyclone
shelters, food grain storage structures, building
material required for construction works; and
– Maintenance of rural public assets
Source Para 4(1), amended Schedule I of MGNREGA, 2005 (Babu et al. 2014)
The MGNREGS guidelines states: “the district programme coordinator should

ensure that at least 60% of works taken up at the district level in terms of cost
shall be for creation of productive assets, directly linked to agriculture and allied
activities through development of land, water and trees” (Guidelines and Framework
for 2020–21, dated 18th Sept. 2019). During 2019–20, 66% of the budget allocation
was towards NRM works (http://mnregaweb4.nic.in/netnrega/all_lvl_details_dash
board_new.aspx).
MGNREGS-NRM works related to water and land development contribute to
“generation of environmental benefits and natural resource conservation; ground
water recharge, increased water availability for irrigation, increased soil fertility,
reduced soil erosion, and improved tree cover” (Esteves et al. 2013). A study across
four states (Esteves et al. 2013) has shown that many MGNREGS works such as
application of silt to croplands and provision of irrigation can result in build-up
of soil organic carbon (SOC), and carbon sequestration in biomass and soil when
tree plantations and fruit orchards are raised, contributing to climate mitigation. In
the 40 study villages, higher SOC content was recorded in 72% of the beneficiary
plots sampled, compared to control plots. Likewise, in 31 of the 40 villages, carbon

sequestration benefits—both in biomass and soil accrued when afforestation works
were undertaken. These fruit trees and afforested areas when grown to maturity also
provide economic benefits in the form of fruits, seeds and leaves, even in a drought
year, supplementing the household income.
The above benefits of MGNREGS works have contributed positively to vulner-
ability reduction in agriculture and livelihoods. A study by Godfrey-Wood and
Flower (2018) concluded that “MGNREGS has already made a major contribution
to resilience to climate change, but requires improvements in governance and state
capacity to maximize its contribution”. Another study by the Institute of Economic
Growth (Panda et al. 2018) concluded that the NRM component has brought substan-
tial changes in MGNREGS operations and the assets created have increased irriga-
tion water availability, ground water level, and agricultural productivity. Additionally,
studies (Porras and Kaur 2018; Esteves et al. 2013; Tiwari et al. 2011; Sinha et al. n.d.)
report that employment provided under MGNREGA and the type of works imple-
mented, positively contribute to reducing vulnerability and building biophysical,
social and economic resilience of rural communities. Thus, “MGNREGS meets the
basic requirements to mainstreaming adaptation and it can become a multi-pronged
strategy to reduce vulnerability to climate change in India” (Adam 2014).
The IPCC (2014c) defines resilience as “the capacity of social, economic, and envi-
ronmental systems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding
or reorganizing in ways that maintain their essential function, identity, and structure,
while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning, and transformation”.
Table 2 provides three indicators (Lisa et al. 2015) used to measure resilience
(adaptation) and assesses how MGNREGS works or activities contribute to reducing
vulnerability or building resilience or adaptation—based on impacts reported by
published literature.
To summarise, some of the features of MGNREGS that make mainstreaming
adaptation relevant and pertinent include: (i) large investment that has widespread
reach; (ii) participatory programme that involves local communities in selection and
approval of works to be implemented—a fundamental principle of adaptation; (iii)
thrust on NRM related works, and (iv) vulnerability reduction potential.
Above all, there is a requirement under the new guidelines of MGNREGA to
incorporate resilience—“Planning and design of works under MGNREGS should
take into account, impacts of climate change in order to ensure resilience of vulnerable
rural communities and make the benefits sustainable in the long run” ( MoRD 2019).
In the following section, we analyse the demand for works under MGNREGS in
relation to the average annual rainfall in the different states of India to elucidate if
there exists any established linkages of MGNREGS providing jobs that help reduce
vulnerability arising from failed agriculture crops or damage to crops in the event of
a failed, or erratically distributed rainfall, or occasionally losses arising from crop
loss to flooding events.
Table 2 Illustration of the contribution of MGNREGS works to vulnerability reduction and

adaptation to climate change
Adaptation or resilience indicators Activities under MGNREGS Reported impact
Natural Resource Conservation All NRM works including water • Increased area under irrigation,
(Tiwari et al. 2011; Esteves et al. conservation and harvesting works, lowering risks of crop failure due
2013; Narayanan et al. 2014; land development works, to droughts
Sinha et al. n.d.) afforestation, etc • Increased net area cultivated,
crop diversification and
increased cropping intensities,
leading to higher household
agriculture incomes
• Increased soil organic carbon
and reduced soil erosion, leading
to increased soil fertility, crop
productivity and carbon
sequestration
• Biodiversity conservation and
increased biomass stock leading
carbon sequestration and
provisioning of NTFPs that can
provide alternate source of food
and incomes
• Increased water holding capacity
of surface water bodies and
improved ground water recharge
has extended the number of days
of irrigation and domestic water
availability, reducing
vulnerability
Disaster Risk Reduction and Drought proofing works such as, • Increased area under irrigation,
Management (Institute of Rural afforestation/agroforestry; lowering risks of crop failure due
Management, 2010; Tiwari et al. renovation and rejuvenation of to droughts
2011; Esteves et al. 2013; traditional water bodies and • Increased number of days of
Narayanan et al. 2014; Sinha et al. springs; landslide and flood water availability from surface
n.d.) protection work; provisioning of and ground water sources for
extra 50 days of wage employment irrigation, domestic use and
in drought affected areas livestock use
• Growing of hardier fruit tree
species that are more resilient
than field crops to delayed
rainfall or droughts
• Increased biomass stock leading
to carbon sequestration and
provisioning of NTFPs that can
provide alternate source of food
and incomes
• Additional 50 days of wage
employment provisioned during
drought prevents distress
migration
• Protection of lands from soil
erosion and reduced surface
runoff of flood waters
(continued)
Table 2 (continued)
Adaptation or resilience indicators Activities under MGNREGS Reported impact
Socio-economic/Livelihood Bottom-up planning and selection • Community participation in
Security (MoRD 2012; UNDP of works for implementation; decision making—selection of
2015; Vijay Korra, 2015; IGSSS, annual increase in wage rates; MGNREGS works is a
n.d.; Bhatia et al. 2016) social inclusion (women, Below bottom-up process, where
Poverty Line households, small households participate in a Gram
and marginal farmers, SC and ST Sabha and propose a list of
prioritization for provisioning of works following MGNREGA
individual assets); endorsing the guidelines
opening of bank accounts; • Employment and income
convergence with other line security—an increase in daily
departments; connectivity and wage rates and income
other community development impacting on the household food
works and nutritional security;
household health and overall
wellbeing; reduced poverty, etc.
• Improved access to information
by local communities and
convergence with other line
departments provides access to
information regarding other
schemes Targeted betterment of
poor and marginalised
groups—empowerment of
women through participation in
planning and implementation of
works and earning income;
increased social inclusion with
high participation of
marginalized groups including
SCs and STs
4.2 Annual Rainfall and MGNREGS Works—Demand

and Employment
Rainfall distribution predominantly determines the cropping pattern and cropping

intensity for a region. The expectation is for states with lower mean annual rainfall
to have higher demand for MGNREGS works. This is based on the assumption that
in regions with low rainfall, employment in agriculture and allied activities would
be restricted to the kharif or monsoon season (i.e., months of June, July, August and
September).
The trends in demand for works under MGNREGS in the different states are
mixed (Fig. 1), contrary to expectation. Similarly, in contrast to the hypothesis that
in low rainfall regions, a higher number of households would have been provided
employment under MGNREGS, given the constraints to employment in agriculture
and allied activities, a mixed trend is seen (Fig. 2) with respect to work demand and
employment provided, and mean annual rainfall.
Another variable could provide insights into employment under MGNREGS and
its relationship with rainfall, is the average person-days of employment generated
Fig. 1 Average number of households that demanded work standardized per 1,000 households
against average annual rainfall during 2012–2019
Fig. 2 Average number of households provided employment under MGNREGS standardized per
1,000 households against average annual rainfall during 2012–2019
per household. It can be seen from Fig. 3 that excluding the Northeast states, the
average days of employment generated per household is generally high in the low
rainfall states. Punjab and Haryana are exceptions where despite low rainfall, the
average employment per household is low.
The analysis of the relationship between annual rainfall, which is the most critical
factor that may contribute to demand for MGNREGS works and employment shows
the following:
• There is no clear trend linking average annual rainfall with demand for
MGNREGS works and employment generated.
– In states with very high rainfall such as Kerala and Goa, very low demand for
MGNREGS works and employment is recorded.
Fig. 3 Average person-days per household generated under MGNREGS against average annual
rainfall during 2012–2019
– In states such as Punjab and Haryana, despite having very low average rainfall
the demand for MGNREGS works and employment is very low since the
irrigation levels and cropping intensity is very high, and these are developed
states.
• Majority of the states with low to moderate rainfall have recorded moderate levels
of demand for MGNREGS works and employment.
• The northeast states have high level of demand for MGNREGS works and
employment in general despite moderate to high rainfall.
Normally, one would expect that the demand for MGNREGS works would be highly
correlated to the total rainfall received in a district or a state, assuming that low
rainfall and drought would lead to increased demand for MGNREGS works and
employment. However, no strong correlation is observed. This may be due to the
fact that communities as well as the approving authorities at the district level do not
have access to rainfall data of districts at the block and panchayat level. Therefore
approval of works and allocation of funds for MGNREGS, or decisions on work
selection are not backed by climate information services.
In the near future, fortnightly and weekly forecast of rain at the district level
is soon to be available at the block level, which potentially could be accessed and
used by communities or the MGNREGS functionaries in scheduling works. Climate
change projections at the national and district level show that, generally in most states
and districts the rainfall is projected to increase, along with increased frequency of
high rainfall intensity events, and in some districts increased rainfall variability. The
climate change projections for the short-term (2030s) and the long-term (2050s) at
the district level could be used in the following ways to enhance resilience to climate
risks, thereby reducing vulnerability and improving adaptation to climate change.
• Selection of works which would be compatible to a flood or drought scenario at
the district level.
• Designing MGNREGS assets such as soil water conservation and irrigation to

adapt to the projected climatic conditions—such as flooding events or moisture
deficit conditions.
• Allocation of funds to districts and fixing of wage rates at the district level based
on rainfall and drought/flood projections.
• Tailoring MGNREGS to provide social protection in the context of climate change
through adoption of the following principles:
– Recognise uncertainty in climate and changing frequency and intensity of

shocks
– Avoid maladaptation by taking into consideration climate change projections
in planning and design of activities so as to not only foster coping capacity in
the short term but also build resilience in the long term.
– Selection of activities that can address a flood or drought scenario at the district
level.
– Designing assets such as soil water conservation and irrigation to adapt to
the projected climatic conditions, such as flooding events or moisture-deficit
conditions.
– Allocation of funds to districts and fixing of wage rates at the district level
based on rainfall, drought, and flood projections.
– Adjust programmes to context as interventions need to be tailored to specific
needs and vulnerability contexts. This would be possible only if planning,
design, and implementation are science based.
Studies by Godfrey-Wood and Flower (2018) and Adam (2014) have highlighted the
need for and potential of mainstreaming adaptation under MGNREGS. However,
adoption of the above strategies require a framework for mainstreaming adapta-
tion. In Sect. 5, a generic framework and strategy for mainstreaming adaptation in
development programmes such as the MGNREGS is presented.
5 Framework for Mainstreaming Adaptation
There exists a fundamental disconnect between the currently implemented develop-

ment programmes and climate information in the different states of India, as evident
from the analysis of MGNREGS—a programme that is closely linked to NRM, and
in its design and intent is to provide employment during lean agricultural period. This
underpins the need for dedicated strategies and a framework for mainstreaming.
A framework for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into developmental
programmes is illustrated in Fig. 4 with one policy option leading to another in
a sequential manner. The analysis and recommendations for each policy option is
described below.
Approach and methods for assessing loss and damage due to climatechange:
An identification of entry points with which to link climate change adaptation to
Approach and Methods for Assessing Loss and Damage During Climate Change
Analysis of climate projections and impacts Assessment of natural resources and their
at varying spatial scales Hazard/stress and response assessment Assessment of poverty and vulnerability management
Development of Adaptation Packages

Current traditional coping strategies and Assess current programmes for adaptation
their adequacy for current exposure/risks Assess the adaptation deficit co-benefits Designing the adaptation package
Planning for Mainstreaming

Enhance/modify existing
programmes to increase Develop new programmes as Assess financial needs for Strengthen the institutional
Select sectors and regions necessary adaptation architecture
adaptation component
Implemenng Mainstreaming Iniaves

For each sector/region identify Communicate adaptation strategies Training and capacity building of identified Implementation of mainstreaming in
implementing agency at different scales /programmes/policies to identified agencies focal departments development programmes
Monitoring of Mainstreaming Inaves

Develop baseline/benchmark Develop methodology and Identify institutions and build Implement feedback mechanisms
scenario at sectoral/regional levels guidelines for monitoring capacity Conduct monitoring programmes for enhancing effectiveness
Fig. 4 Proposed framework for mainstreaming adaptation into development programmes
development planning involves submitting the target region under consideration to

a variety of assessments at different levels.
– Analysis of climate projections and impacts at varying spatial scales: The first step
in assessment is an analysis of climate projections at regional and sub-regional
levels. Choosing the appropriate models is important for this process so as to avoid
errors and minimize uncertainty in downscaling. Additionally, impact analysis
needs to be included as a necessary component. It would provide information
about biophysical impacts at various spatial and temporal scales and for different
convergent sectors such as agriculture, water and forests.
– Hazard/stress and response assessment: Hazards tend to be perceived as sudden
onset, unexpected, high impact while stresses, on the other hand, refer to smaller,
low impact events and seasonal factors. It is necessary to consider this difference
in assessment between hazards and stresses, as hazard assessment is more likely to
be a measure of the exposure of a system to climate extremes and informs disaster
risk management initiatives, while stress responses are likely to be a measure of
the exposure of a system to more of non-climatic, political or socio-economic
factors.
– Assessment of poverty and vulnerability: Poverty contributes to vulnerability.
Most development programmes contribute to poverty reduction, and consequently
vulnerability reduction as well, through key policies such as livelihood diversifica-

tion, sustainable livelihoods, agricultural production or harvesting forest products
among others. The livelihood options available locally to individuals and house-
holds depend on the diversity of resources, skills and technologies they are able to
access. Livelihood options result in reduced vulnerability at individual and house-
hold level to the effect of stresses such as climate change by providing income
security that is less primarily reliant on natural resources. They contribute to a
more positive coping strategy and consequently to increased resilience as well.
Livelihood security is tied to an assessment of hazards and stresses as mentioned
above, as well as an assessment of natural resources and their management.
– Assessment of natural resources and their management: The relationship of the
local community with locally available natural resources and their utilization and
management is of significant importance. Community participation in NRM is of
extreme importance in ensuring its sustainable use. As vulnerability is determined
by a gradation of measurement of the access individuals and households have
towards the various opportunities to diversify livelihoods from locally available
natural resources, it is important to factor its assessment into policy planning.
Development of adaptation packages: Scoping and designing an adaptation package
involves ensuring that a programme or scheme or project is well-integrated into the
national policy planning and development process and implemented in a systematic
manner at varying spatial scales and across different sectors.
– Current coping strategies and their adequacy for current exposure/risks: It is
important in the analysis of what kind of adaptation measure to include, to deter-
mine the current coping strategies that individuals or households use in adapting
to climate variability or climate extremes. The nature of these coping strategies—
whether they are erosive or positive, reactive or proactive, traditional or inno-
vative—can illuminate whether the adaptive strategies used lead to short-term
or long-term change. Building resilience starts with reducing vulnerability and
this is where coping strategies used can inform the nature and extent of adaptive
capacity inherent in a community in addition to vulnerability reduction efforts.
– Assess the adaptation deficit: Addressing adaptation deficit is extremely important
as it reveals the gaps and potential draw-backs inherent in certain developmental
programmes that may run counter to achieving adaptation to climate change or
sustainable development. One reason many of the rural development programmes
do not rate high in reducing vulnerability or increasing resilience, is because a
large proportion of infrastructure development projects, while offering livelihood
diversification options, do not do so in a sustainable manner.
– Assess current development programmes for adaptation co-benefits: An assess-
ment of where development programmes rank in the provision of sustainable
livelihoods and disaster risk reduction and whether the adaptation co-benefits
inherent in the programmes are sufficient or need to be expanded is necessary.
– Designing the adaptation package: While adaptation planning is done at a macro-
level, adaptation implementation is invariably done at a local level. Development
of sector and region-specific initiatives needs an integration of bottom-up and top-

down approaches to implementation. These provide information on the optimal
set of policy options that could be factored into a developmental programme’s
objectives. Converting these objectives into practice entails setting budgetary allo-
cations that cover adaptation components and ensuring that physical targets meet
financial expectations. These are key steps to take in designing an adaptation
package.
Planning for mainstreaming: Mainstreaming adaptation into developmental
programme planning requires a multi-faceted integration of information and insti-
tutional infrastructure that entails incorporating climate science, integrating various
frameworks to addressing developmental priorities, adopting a multi-disciplinary
approach and reflecting the priorities in the financial intentions.
– Select appropriate sectors and regions: The selection of the relevant sectors and
regions needs to be factored into policy-level planning and programme objectives.
There is a lot of differentiation between system characteristics of various regions
and there also exists considerable variation in material, institutional and financial
resources available to various sectors. It is thus essential to approach modification
decisions at a central or state level with a multi-disciplinary lens.
– Enhance/modify existing programmes to increase the adaptation benefits: Once
the current extent of mainstreaming adaptation as well as any remnant potential
has been identified, the programmes need to be modified to enhance the adapta-
tion component in a number of ways. Policy options aimed at reducing vulner-
ability and increasing resilience almost always rest on a premise of achieving
livelihood security for individuals and households targeted in a particular devel-
opment programme. These policies should also factor in risk reduction to climate
variability and extremes as well as ecosystem-based approaches that take into
account the importance of natural resource management and ownership by the
local communities in order to achieve long-term sustainable development.
– Develop new programmes as necessary: There is currently ongoing convergence
between different developmental programmes that have similar objectives as well
as an integration of current developmental programmes with National Adapta-
tion Mission Interventions. These indicate potential for mainstreaming achievable
when new programmes are created with targeted focus on climate adaptation.
– Assess the financial needs for adaptation: Once specific policy options have been
translated into actionable developmental goals, the disbursement of the budget
should reflect the priority accorded to particular adaptation interventions within
the developmental programme objectives. Tracking the financial outlay tacked
to an adaptation intervention can, over time, be used as a monitoring measure
in conjunction with actual physical progress made against the outlay or the
expenditure against outlay.
– Strengthen the institutional architecture: It is now widely acknowledged that to
achieve effective mainstreaming, the complementary but often distinct institu-
tional arrangements that oversee development, disaster management and climate
resilience need to be integrated. It is therefore necessary to identify convergence
points between these communities of practice and aim to achieve a level of synergy
between them so that adaptation can be mainstreamed across temporal, spatial
and functional scales. It may involve a level of cross-sectoral institutional frame-
works as mainstreaming adaptation into developmental programmes is by nature
a multi-disciplinary initiative.
Implementing mainstreaming initiatives: Implementation of mainstreaming initia-
tives into developmental programmes is a multi-stage process that involves spatial
co-ordination across various levels of government and different sectors. Below a
step-wise approach to implementation is presented.
– Identify the implementing agencies at different scales: The first step to developing
implementation arrangements is to identify key implementing agencies at each
spatial scale of implementation as well as across sectors. Coordination of main-
streaming initiatives into developmental programmes is a multi-scalar and multi-
sectoral initiative and the governance of implementation needs to be structured in
a strong manner.
– Communicate adaptation strategies/programmes/policies to identified agencies:
Communication of adaptation strategies and policies and methodical guidelines on
how these can be mainstreamed into existing or new developmental programmes is
necessary. The content, mode and method of communication need to be developed
and delivered in a manner that is clearly understandable to all the key personnel
involved in the identified implementation agencies. The challenge here is to convey
scientific information in a language that is understood by all the stakeholders
involved.
– Training and capacity building of identified focal departments: Once strategies for
mainstreaming adaptation have been communicated and understood by necessary
personnel involved, the next step is to build and train the stakeholders in involved
agencies on the mechanics of implementation in the sectors and regions under
their purview. Training and capacity-building is a necessary step to convert policy
to practice. And just as policy development for mainstreaming adaptation into
developmental programmes is a cross-sectoral initiative, so too is the delivery of
training and capacity-building.
– Implementation of mainstreaming in development programmes: Once capacity
has been built, the actual implementation of mainstreaming adaptation in devel-
opmental programmes takes place. This involves operationalizing planning and
implementation via all the arrangements—material, financial and institutional—
that have been put into place through the previous steps.
Monitoring of mainstreaming initiatives: Continuity and improvement in main-
streaming adaptation into developmental programmes entails various components
that include knowledge sharing among government departments, building commu-
nity learning processes and investing in monitoring and continuous updating
initiatives.
Develop baseline/benchmark at sectoral/regional levels: The first step to moni-
toring is to establish a baseline or a benchmark scenario that would serve as a point of
comparison to measure the progress of implementation of adaptation mainstreaming.

These could be a specific year before adaptation became a national priority or a
scenario where developmental programmes had priorities that did not necessarily
feature adaptation elements.
Develop methodology and guidelines for monitoring: Once a baseline has been
developed, the methodology and guidelines for monitoring are required. The method-
ology for monitoring should include an assessment of how the monitoring architec-
ture would be structured and implemented. The guidelines for monitoring should
include the criteria for monitoring and measurement, time scales of recurring
monitoring and how resulting assessments and improvements will be taken into
account.
Identify institutions and build capacity for monitoring: Following on the method-
ology for how monitoring would be conducted, an appropriate institutional archi-
tecture for monitoring should be developed. Typically monitoring is conducted by
organizations or departments that are independent of or not directly involved in
implementation. This creates an impartial mode of operation and analysis that is
necessary for measuring the extent of and success of mainstreaming.
Conduct monitoring programmes: The deployment of monitoring teams to
measure adaptation mainstreaming needs to be conducted at different levels. This
would involve due diligence at policy and project levels to assess the extent of
mainstreaming policy and planning that has been incorporated into developmental
programme objectives at various spatial scales.
Feedback mechanisms for enhancing effectiveness: Finally, the information
collected from monitoring and assessment of implementation contributes to valuable
feedback on improving mainstreaming initiatives for the future. Therefore, a feed-
back mechanism needs to be in place to improve the effectiveness of mainstreaming
initiatives.
6 Adaptation and Development Nexus
India is at a juncture of development trajectory where there are immense opportunities

for development and economic growth. But, there are also multiple challenges due
to climate change. Development priorities in India span growth, equity, and sustain-
ability. Climate change is a potential threat to sustainable development. There is
therefore a need to integrate climate concerns into all plans for economic growth and
socio-economic development. The current barriers and constraints that limit integra-
tion of climate concerns and adaptation into development planning revolve around
uncertainties associated with climate change impacts. These are the challenges that
policy-makers have to grapple with when allocating resources for climate change
adaptation.
McGray et al. (2007) refer to mainstreaming adaptation in development
programmes as a process that “goes beyond designing projects with a basket of adap-
tation strategies and their implementation”. It should rather be the fundamental goal
so as to address vulnerability. The distinction lies in differentiating between an “adap-

tation approach” to development and a “vulnerability reduction approach” to develop-
ment. The latter approach, with its focus on amelioration of conditions that contribute
to vulnerability, can be viewed as potentially having supportive complementarities
to sustainable development programmes over the long term.
Attempts to integrate adaptation into developmental efforts are constantly plagued
by questions of: “what constitutes adaptation to climate change and how is it different
from ‘good’ developmental practices?”. It is quite possible that some developmental
activities have inherent adaptation components. leading to serendipitous adaptation.
There could be some others that have been appended with incremental activities into
the original programme design over a period of time, to climate-proof them. However,
climate risk screening needs to transition from being a traditional approach of being
‘reactive’ to a ‘proactive’ approach that is prepared for an extreme climate event.
Such a transition will help build the resilience of systems and communities in the
long-term.
References
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Hydrogen: Towards a Complete Clean
Energy Transition and Achieving Carbon
Neutrality
Sameer Guduru
Abstract Can hydrogen play the role of being the fuel of the future? Why is hydrogen
being looked at closely by the global community? What are the advantages of its
adoption? What issues can it likely address being the primary source of energy?
What will be its role in the world’s clean energy transition? This chapter seeks to
answer such questions and discuss various facets related to the use of hydrogen as
a fuel. It critically analyses the factors that may impede its wider adoption. Further,
the scope for a more combined approach for its cleaner production and the sectors it
can revolutionize in the near to long term is also discussed.
Keywords Hydrogen · Photovoltaics · Clean energy · Carbon footprints · Carbon

nutrality
1 The Geopolitics of Energy
Energy security is one of the primary drivers of geopolitics. This is precisely what
has led to several conflicts in West Asia in the past and even today. Given the nature
of existing technologies to produce energy, their dependence on fossil fuels remains
immense. Therefore, it has the potential of affecting any country that is externally
dependent on energy resources such as India. A significant portion of India’s energy
basket comprises energy exports from West Asia including crude oil and natural gas.
These two commodities are crucial for India to maintain a steady economic trajectory
and to feed its population. Hence, the risk of disruption to its energy supply chain
with origins in volatile, turbulent, and perennially conflict-laden West Asia looms
large on India’s policymakers. Thus, there is an immediate need for the country to
diversify its energy resources away from fossil fuels in favour of cleaner fuel sources
that have low or no (close to zero) carbon emissions. In this context, hydrogen can
play a major role with a coherent approach by synergizing efforts from policymakers,
energy giants, educational institutions, and industries, etc.
S. Guduru (B)
National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi, India
300 S. Guduru
2 Climate Change and Clean Energy Transition

an Inevitability
Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe. It is the lightest element with
just 1 electron and 1 proton contained in its atoms. It is a vital element associated
with life because of its presence in water in the form of a di-hydrogen oxide (H2 O).
The stars in the universe primarily are made of hydrogen which fuses at too high
solar temperatures and pressure to produce Helium and energy in the process. This
fusion reaction goes on and on to create various elements that constitute the universe.
However, fission of hydrogen is not the only way to extract energy from hydrogen. It
can be used as a fuel in combustion engines and fuel cells to produce electricity. The
byproduct of the combustion reaction is water. For decades, this has propelled various
researchers, industries, and governments to exploit these advantages of hydrogen as a
fuel to drive economies. Hydrogen does not produce carbon emissions and therefore,
does not contribute to climate change. As it is widely known today, CO2 emissions
associated with energy account for two-thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Hence, it is inevitable to crackdown on carbon emissions and adopt cleaner sources
of energy. Renewable energy resources such as solar photovoltaics, and wind energy,
have witnessed wider adoption and are today rivalling fossil fuels in terms of power
tariffs. However, there remain several factors that eventually impede their broader
and faster adoption. For example, in the case of solar photovoltaics, the intermittency
period is relatively high as solar panels become ineffective during nights and in bad
weather conditions. Moreover, both solar and wind farms need vast tracts of land to
establish plants. This assumes even more critical importance in a country like India
that is densely populated and is already facing a shortage of land resources.
However, considering countries like India, which is a significant economy and the
world’s third-largest greenhouse gas emitter, the country has to prioritize her clean
energy transition and economic growth simultaneously. This is vital and to achieve a
scenario of restricting the average global temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius
(°C) requires CO2 emissions to decline by 25% by 2030 from those of 2010 levels
and as a broader transition strategy to achieve net zero-emissions by 2070. Countries
are also mandated to restrict their carbon emissions to predetermined levels and
set targets to combat climate change and its devastating effects. The United Nation
mooted Sustainable Development Goals (SDG’s) make prescriptions towards clean
energy transition. Specifically, SDG #7 focuses on “clean and affordable energy for
all”, compelling countries, corporations and individuals towards adopting sustainable
practices and thereby mitigating the effects of climate change. Given the clean nature
of hydrogen fuel with no carbon emissions, the G 20 Karuizawa Innovation Action
Plan on Energy Transitions and Global Environment for Sustainable Growth (2019)
directs the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) to identify means of
achieving a clean energy transition to run economies of scale on hydrogen energy. A
joint report prepared by the 2nd Hydrogen Energy Ministerial Meeting and IRENA
emphasizes the production of hydrogen from renewable resources of energy, which
could eventually propel hydrogen to become more widely adopted and bring down
Hydrogen: Towards a Complete Clean Energy Transition … 301
Fig. 1 Comparative Heat-energy produced by burning 1 kg of various fuels [1]
costs significantly and become the fuel of choice in future. The adoption of hydrogen
fuel has several inherent advantages that are discussed below (Fig. 1).
3 Advantages of Adopting Hydrogen as a Source of Energy
Hydrogen has the highest energy output (142–120 Megajoules/kilogram), which is

almost 2–3 times the energy produced by its closest rival fuel, i.e., methane (55
Megajoules/kilogram). It can either be used in combustion engines or fuel cells or
can even be stored to extract energy at any time. It provides an alternative to bulky
battery storage that usually employs toxic chemicals to produce electrical power.
Such batteries pose a threat to the environment during their disposal and are quite
challenging to transport during their lifetimes.
Therefore, hydrogen addresses the issues associated with electricity production
and can be utilized for transportation, a sector that needs immediate attention and
impetus towards clean transition as almost 98% of this sector runs on fossil fuels.
Hydrogen can play a major role in the transportation sector especially in move-
ment of logistics. Its higher energy density and usage in fuel cells makes it ideal for
long-haul trucking, railway transportation, shipping and aviation sectors. As battery
operated vehicles are restricted in their ranges and battery lifetimes, hydrogen fuel
cell powered vehicles are a useful alternative and can play a significant comple-
mentary role. Hydrogen in conjunction with other cleaner fuels such as methane in
blended form can also be utilized in achieving net carbon neutrality. The carbon
released by the combustion of methane can also be captured, and combined with
302 S. Guduru
hydrogen, thereby repeating the cycle all over in a carbon neutral manner. Although,
carbon capture technologies are still not mature enough for wider adoption. Hydrogen
comprises only a small fraction of Earth’s atmosphere. Still, it is abundantly acces-
sible in the form of oceans, which form the most significant water source on earth
and can be broken down into its constituent elements hydrogen and oxygen in a
process known as electrolysis. Hydrogen has the potential to revolutionize heavy
industries such as chemicals, iron and steel, heavy metals, and fertilizer industry,
etc. The fertilizer industry will benefit immensely as hydrogen can be used as a
feedstock to produce methane by combining with carbon dioxide. The methane can
then be utilized as a feedstock to produce fertilizers that become essential to feed the
developing world where the population is expanding rapidly and global projections
of human population reaching 10 billion by the year 2050.
4 Issues with Current Hydrogen Production, Storage

Techniques, and Associated Costs
More than 90% of hydrogen produced today, comes from processes that involve
fossil fuels. These include techniques like steam reforming, methane oxidation, and
coal gasification. These processes usually involve reacting fossil fuels with water
or oxygen to produce hydrogen and carbon dioxide. Therefore, these processes
themselves intrinsically contribute to the net carbon footprint. Hence, a method of
producing hydrogen cleanly without the carbon footprint is a necessity. Since today,
the costs per unit of energy from renewables such as solar and wind are competing
with fossil fuels. There is a huge scope for adopting an integrated approach. The
power generated from wind and solar energy can be used to run the electrolysis of
water, and thereby energy can be stored in the form of hydrogen. The electrolysis
process is clean and does not have any environmental impact. This form of hydrogen
produced from fossil fuels is termed as green hydrogen. Since the oceans are the
most abundant water source, they can be treated, and electrolysis can be performed
to produce hydrogen. Even though this sounds possible, several constraints persist.
Hydrogen is the lightest gas and therefore, its storage requires it to be liquefied or
kept under pressure or converted into toluene or ammonia for its transportation. The
liquefaction of hydrogen occurs at shallow temperatures of −250 °C. This process of
liquefaction also consumes energy. Moreover, the conversion of hydrogen into other
forms such as toluene or ammonia, also expends energy. So, the overall energy output
falls down to just 30% of the actual energy that hydrogen produces. In addition, as of
today, 70% of the cost of green hydrogen are the costs of power utilized to produce
it (Fig. 2).
These factors naturally have a bearing on the end-price of hydrogen and have to
be factored when comparing other renewable sources of energy. This is quantified
Fig. 2 Factors contributing to the overall cost of hydrogen [1]
in the form of comparing the “Levelized Cost of Energy” (LCOE).1 According to

IRENA, to achieve parity and to compete with other forms of energy sources such
as fossil fuels, the LCOE of hydrogen production from renewables should be under
US$ 2.5/kg. The IRENA report of 2019 analysed two different power tariff scenarios
of producing hydrogen from renewable wind energy. The first being a “relatively
low cost” scenario (power tariff of US$ 40/MWh), and the second, a “very low cost”
scenario (power tariff of US$ 20/MWh). The study also took into account the current
and the projected future price of electrolyzers at US$ 840/kW and US$ 200/kW,
respectively. The conclusion was that the production of hydrogen from renewables
in these scenarios cannot compete with the production of hydrogen from traditional
methods such as methane reformation (US$ 5 per gigajoule, i.e., 1.8 US cents/kW).
However, hydrogen production from renewables can compete with natural gas prices
when applied in large-scale industrial applications, where the costs are USD 10/16
per gigajoule.
Nonetheless, with expected improvements in technology and increasing elec-
trolyzer efficiency as well as capacity and load factors and the consequent price-
reduction, the cost of producing hydrogen from renewables will witness a decline.
Also, taxation on carbon and carbon credits will hasten industries towards a tran-
sition in the direction of hydrogen. The report finally concludes that the price of
green renewable hydrogen will start competing with traditional production methods
by 2035 and, in an ideal scenario, might overtake the next few years.
1 LCOE measures lifetime-costs divided by energy-production. It calculates the present value of

the total cost of building and operating a power plant over an assumed lifetime. It thus allows the
comparison of different technologies (e.g., wind, solar, natural gas) of unequal life spans, project
size, different capital cost, risk, return, and capacities. As such, it is critical to making an informed
decision to proceed with development of a facility, community or commercial-scale project.
304 S. Guduru
5 Hydrogen Production from Renewables Sources

of Energy: A “Hybrid” Approach
(a) Hydrogen from Solar Photovoltaics

Over the last few years, solar photovoltaics have witnessed tremendous growth. This
is primarily because countries like India and China have adopted solar photovoltaics
in a big way to enable their clean energy transition. Both the countries host some
of the world’s largest solar parks in terms of area and capacity. This has driven a
solar boom of sorts with the establishment of the International Solar Alliance jointly
founded by France and India post the Paris 2015 climate talks. Given this widespread
adoption, including rooftop solar and subsidies by the government, the prices of solar
power per unit today are less than or at par with fossil fuels.
Moreover, since issues related to land occupation persist, floating solar plants are
becoming increasingly popular. Solar panels that float on the surface of water bodies
and thereby do not occupy land while at the same time also save the water from
getting evaporated from urban catchment reservoirs. Similar floating plants are now
being implemented on oceans’ also to produce electricity to be utilized by coastal
communities and establishments. Considering the proximity of such plants to water,
which can be broken down into its constituent elements via electrolysis, combined
approaches for producing hydrogen from solar photovoltaics has been proposed.
The electrolyzers will be installed either onshore or offshore and will be powered by
solar photovoltaics to harness hydrogen cleanly without any carbon footprint. These
techniques are increasingly being termed as innovative ideas towards establishing
localized hydrogen production plants, thereby bypassing its transportation and asso-
ciated difficulties such as its liquefaction and conversion into other materials such
as Ammonia. Moreover, the hazards of transporting hydrogen under pressure are
reduced, and so is the risk of explosion and leakage (Fig. 3).
(b) Hydrogen from onshore/offshore wind power
Similar to the earlier techniques, hydrogen production plants in conjunction with
onshore and offshore wind energy plants are being implemented. In this case, wind
power drives the electrolysis and the production of hydrogen. The German city of
Hamburg, for example, has already demonstrated the use of offshore wind energy
to produce hydrogen. Hydrogen produced especially from offshore wind energy has
several advantages due to its proximity to coastal areas. It can be utilized for the
energy transition of the shipping and the aviation sectors, which are some of the
world’s biggest carbon producers. Moreover, providing auxiliary power to berthed
ships in what is called as “cold ironing” becomes possible with hydrogen-powered
fuel cells. This reduces emissions from vessels berthed at ports as ships typically
have their engines running even at ports to power loading and unloading processes
and other onboard activities. This will also reduce Sulphur Oxide (Sox) emissions,
following the MARPOL Annex VI of the International Convention for the Prevention
of Pollution from Ships, (1973), which mandates ships to run on less than 0.5% of
sulphur content in the fuel, beginning January 2020.
Fig. 3 Hydrogen production via a combined generation process. Power from renewables is used
to run electrolysis of water and to produce hydrogen. Source Created by Dr. Sameer Guduru
(c) Hydrogen from other forms of renewable energy

Other sources of renewable energy, including Ocean Wave-Energy Conversion
(OWEC) for hydrogen production in a combined manner, have also been proposed.
Ocean Wave Energy is a continuous source of energy, and when combined with
hydrogen production using electrolysis, it can play a much larger role. Studies
conducted in the Italian islands of Sicily and Pantelleria, conclude that this approach
can significantly reduce carbon emissions. Similarly, another form of ocean energy
called the Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion that produces electricity, works on
the temperature gradient existing between cold deep seawater and the warm surface
seawater. Ideally for achieving higher efficiency of this process, the temperature
difference should be 20 degree Celsius, as this difference is enough under the
right pressure conditions to evaporate liquids like Ammonia that drive turbines and
produce electricity. Such offshore OTEC plants can also be proposed to produce
hydrogen via the electrolysis of seawater (Fig. 4). Apart from ocean energy resources,
hydroelectric dams are also being employed in hydrogen production. Power from
hydropower plants will be utilized for electrolysis of water and such projects are
gaining adoption in countries such as Canada, in the form of a 88 MW electrolysis
plant in Varennes, Quebec.
6 Hydrogen as a Fuel in Various Sectors
(a) Hydrogen in Shipping

306 S. Guduru
Fig. 4 Sectors to be positively impacted by Hydrogen Fuel [2]
Shipping based on hydrogen fuel is the next logical step and plans are currently afoot
in Norway, the United States, Switzerland, and France. NORLED and WESTCON
in Norway are working together on the world’s first hydrogen-fuelled car ferry.
Commuter ferries powered by hydrogen are being developed in the San Francisco
Bay Area of California, by New York-based SW/ TCH (pronounced Switch). Swiss
ABB, and Hydrogène de France are manufacturing megawatt-scale hydrogen fuel
cell systems to power ocean-going vessels. Considering the issues related to hydrogen
transportation and storage, offshore hydrogen fueling stations are regarded to hold
some promise, because as such, the large ocean-going vessels do not have to enter and
exit ports for refuelling which might otherwise take a longer time. This is possible due
to the emergence and development of new approaches to produce green hydrogen.
Countries like India have launched ambitious projects such as the Sagarmala Project
that focus on port-led connectivity, and the opportunities are immense. Given the
sensitivity of riverine ecosystems to engine noise and marine pollution, hydrogen
usage in inland waterways can have a revolutionary effect. This will first bring down
pollution from the trucks by shifting the demand to inland ships and waterways for
bulk quantities and reducing pollution from inland shipping, which usually traverse
hinterland areas that are away from both air and noise pollution. The coastal/ marine
tourism sector can also benefit immensely with the adoption of hydrogen as a fuel
in passenger ferries and cruise liners.
(b) Hydrogen in Military Applications/ Autonomous Platforms
Off late, unmanned platforms are increasingly becoming common in military appli-
cations. They are being used for logistics transportation, in combat, surveillance,
underwater mapping, for reconnaissance missions, etc. Since the platforms are
autonomous, they minimize the number of mortalities in combat and are of partic-
ularly interest. Unmanned surface vessels (USV), unmanned underwater vehicles
(UUV) platforms, and unmanned aviation vehicles (UAV) are being widely adopted
in research as well as military applications. Given hydrogen and the advantages it
offers, long-endurance UUV’s have already been demonstrated. Such platforms have
the added benefits of stealth due to low noise generated in producing energy, long
endurance times. This helps in having a long and extended period of deployment at
sea while gathering scientific data or in anti-submarine warfare applications.
Moreover, with seabed mining prospects increasing rapidly, considering the abun-
dance of mineral resources, both tethered and untethered remotely operated vehicles
(ROV’s) are being developed, which can be fueled by hydrogen. Both naval surface
platforms, as well as underwater platforms, are adopting hydrogen fuel. Naval plat-
forms, just like their commercial counterparts, have large carbon emissions at berths
by guzzling away large amounts of fossil fuels. One of the remedies is to use hydrogen
to propel these ships than gasoline or diesel. They can also be powered using auxiliary
power provided at the port facility, which itself can be hydrogen-based.
The German Navy and the Italian Navy currently operate the Type 212A Class, air-
independent propulsion (AIP) submarine powered by Proton-Exchange Membrane
(PEM) hydrogen fuel cells with a higher endurance level. They can remain submerged
for operation periods up to three weeks without the need to surface, unlike their diesel-
electric submarine counterparts which have to surface every few hours to recharg
their batteries, therefore vulnerable to be spotted by rival navies. They have also
customized for stealth applications due to reduced noise levels from the engines.
These submarines can remain undetected with nonmagnetic components and can
reach very close to coastlines with just 17 m depth. The US army has its surface
combatant vehicles like tanks, artillery, etc. which are slowly employing hydrogen
fuel cells due to reduced noise levels and, therefore, offering the enemy’s prospects
from close quarters. Due to the propulsion systems working on power generated from
fuel cells instead of combustion engines, the thermal signature is also reduced and
thereby the chance of getting detected.
(c) Hydrogen in Aviation
While demonstrations of flights powered by hydrogen fuel cells have been success-
fully developed in countries like Germany, the application of hydrogen in air trans-
portation is still in its very nascent stages. The world’s first six-seater passenger
plane fueled by hydrogen was demonstrated in September 2020 in the United
Kingdom. Aviation is a sector that has a considerable carbon footprint, and the
industry can benefit immensely by getting rid of fossil fuels such as jet kerosene.
Several challenges such as scaling up, hydrogen storage onboard, etc., have yet to be
achieved before a full-scale demonstration of passenger and cargo aviation powered
308 S. Guduru
by hydrogen can be demonstrated and given the current investment and research
and development in the area, the day is soon. In fact, Airbus is currently working
on realizing its first hydrogen powered zero emission aircraft named ZEROe. Such
innovations will likely play a major role in reducing carbon emissions of the aviation
sector that is expanding rapidly in emerging economies like India.
(d) Hydrogen in Road and Rail Transportation
With the emergence of smart vehicles, the electric vehicle (EV) segment today is
divided between battery-operated EVs and fuel cell-operated EVs. Public transporta-
tion such as buses and private cars like cabs driven by hydrogen are slowly finding
space in the market. This is primarily because the time taken to recharge battery-
operated vehicles takes a few hours compared to EV’s run on fuel cells, which can be
filled with hydrogen and oxygen in a few minutes. Hydrogen-driven trucks and other
vehicles used in logistics are increasingly being adopted across countries including
Germany, Netherlands, Canada, Chile, New Zealand, Japan, Korea, France etc. In the
case of rail transportation, Coradia iLint is currently being operated in Germany and
was developed by Alstom as the world’s first commuter train run on hydrogen. India
is also currently working on realizing hydrogen propelled locomotives to eliminate
diesel-powered locomotives to reduce emissions in a phased manner.
(e) Hydrogen in Space Applications
Outer space is not immune to international politics either. Space is increasingly

becoming relevant from a geopolitical and strategic perspective with the increased
weaponization of space. The near future will undoubtedly witness the deployment of
weapons in space. This requires platforms such as heavy rockets propelled by a mix
of different fuels including hydrogen, oxygen, and methane, etc. With high calorific
value and the prospect of creating methane by reacting with carbon dioxide in an
in-situ process, rocket propulsion relies heavily on hydrogen as a fuel.
(f) Hydrogen Powering Industry 4.0
Emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, the internet of things, 5G, etc.,
are reckoned to be the future technologies. With the availability of electric propulsion
of the transportation sector, the prospects of adopting emerging technologies such
as AI, 5G, IoT, Virtual/Augmented Reality become a possibility. Increasingly, the
shipping sector is getting automated and similarly does the EV segment of the market.
Such vessels carry onboard sensors that assist in navigation with concise latency
periods and instant feedback mechanisms.
7 Conclusion
Energy commodity vulnerabilities from volatile source regions of energy and climate
action targets have compelled the world to pay more attention to run economies
of scale propelled on hydrogen power. Even though the transition is rather slow,
considering the hydrogen-based technologies are relatively new and need time to
attain market maturity. This, however, is likely to change quickly soon with the
increased global impetus on developing efficient hydrogen production technologies
and its wider adoption across the industry. Hydrogen perhaps offers the best hope for
humanity to achieve carbon neutrality by the year 2070 and thereby mitigate climate
change. Due to its inherent carbon footprints, hydrogen production, when achieved
from fossil fuel-based sources, needs an alternative carbon-free approach today. This
is becoming a reality by adopting a combined approach from solar photovoltaics,
wind energy, and other renewable energy forms. The power from these platforms is
utilized to drive electrolysis of water and thereby produce hydrogen. The hydrogen
thus obtained is termed as green hydrogen. Hydrogen has varied applications in the
transportation sector both when used in mixed fuels as well as in the form of fuel cells.
Also, the armed forces’ combat platforms are increasingly relying on hydrogen for
the prospects of stealth and more extended endurance period in the form of UUV’s,
UAV’s, USV’s, and even submarines. Hydrogen can also revolutionize the aviation,
road, and rail transport sector and transportation along inland waterways. Also, the
prospects offered in terms of excessive power can efficiently be utilized to further
the adoption of emerging technologies such as AI, IoT, etc., and thereby accelerate
these industries’ development. In short, hydrogen can become the fuel of future and
address the issues related to climate change via decarbonization and eventually net
carbon neutrality.
Note: The study on hydrogen as a prospective fuel was carried out at the National
Maritime Foundation, New Delhi.
Acknowledgements The author acknowledges the valuable contributions made by Vice Admiral
Pradeep Chauhan (Retd.), Director-General, the National Maritime Foundation in furthering the
study on hydrogen. The author also expresses his special note of thanks to the valuable interaction
he was privileged to have with Prof. Tiju Thomas, Department of Metallurgical and Materials
Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, India.
References
Guduru S, Chauhan VP (2020) Hydrogen-fuel adoption: an ocean renewable energy approach part
4: hydrogen fuel from ‘ORER’—a hybrid solution for maritime activity. https://maritimeindia.
org/part-4-hydrogen-fuel-from-orer-a-hybrid-solution-for-maritime-activity/
Guduru S, Chauhan VP (2020) Hydrogen fuel adoption: an ocean renewable energy approach part 5:
hydrogen-fuel—the option-of-choice for India. https://maritimeindia.org/part-5-hydrogen-fuel-
the-option-of-choice-for-india/
Climate Change and Politics
Mohd. Yousuf Bhat
Abstract Climate change is becoming prominent in mainstream politics. Liberal

governments have generally learnt into the narratives of climate action, claiming
it as a priority, while consistently failing to make significant progress towards just
transition, adaptation, and associated economic transformations. Eco-fascism is said
to be looking, but actually existing far-right. Governments have tended towards a
more steadfast solidarity with fossil capital. They have not demonstrated a willing-
ness to break with capitalist economies which produce the climate crisis. Within
liberal democracies, left-wing and socialist parties have demonstrated the strongest
commitment to programs of economic transformation, most commensurate with the
scale and nature of the climate crisis. Whether Bernie Sanders’ Presidential campaign
in the US, Jeremy Corbyn’s election campaigns as leader of the UK Labour Party,
or Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s campaign for President with La France Insoumise, these
climate justice socialists have rarely taken state power. While China’s geopolitical
rise may pose a challenge to the US’ geopolitical hegemony, possibly even including
its brand of capitalism, there is little evidence that China’s rise will be any better
for the climate in the coming decades. At the same time as investing in renewable
technologies at home, China is financing new coal power and mines across Asia
and Africa. Where other political formations have neglected climate change, Green
parties around the world have sought to establish themselves as the electoral vehi-
cles for environmentalism. Like their ideological orientation, their success has been
inconsistent. Lacking strong ideological commitments, Greens have often allied with
neoliberal or even far-right governments in exchange for proximity to state power.
Keywords Climate politics · Neoliberals · Green ideologies · Green slogans ·

Eco-feminism · Environmentalism
Mohd. Y. Bhat (B)

Government Degree College Pulwama, Pulwama, Jammu & Kashmir, India
312 Mohd. Y. Bhat
1 Introduction
Climate Change is considered as the mother of all problems. It is a crucial issue

of contemporary times with population growth on one side and fulfilling its needs
on the other hand. With the rising temperatures, apocalyptic events will unfold in
future and that will be a phase of human race where there will be no returning to
the earlier world. United Nations points out the severity of global warming through
its report which reads, “quantities of greenhouse gases in atmosphere have risen to
record levels not seen in three million years. As populations, economies and living
standards grow, so does the cumulative level of GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions”. In
the planet’s climate there is a clear correlation between the carbon dioxide, methane
and nitrous oxide level and the “greenhouse effect” which is gradually warming the
mean temperature of the globe (Irwin 2008a). Human fingerprints on climate indi-
cate that the environment is severely strained by the pollution from modern industrial
processes and the lifestyle of consumerism. With the start-up of 1750’s Industrial
Revolution, levels of carbon dioxide started rising steadily from the “natural back-
ground” levels of less than 280 ppmv to over 370 ppmv and the same sudden jump
can be seen for methane and nitrous oxide (Irwin 2008b).
The complex politics of global warming results from dependence of economic
activities on fossil fuels (responsible for Carbon dioxide) and agriculture and land-use
change (responsible for methane and nitrous oxide). The primary mechanism of tack-
ling this global warming is through Paris Agreement that replaced Kyoto Protocol
in the year 2020, both established under United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Although Paris Agreement focuses on all coun-
tries to tackle climate change unlike that of Kyoto Protocol which applied top-down
approach and targeted only historical emitters. But it again leaves space for emerging
economies to continue emitting until they feel of having done enough. Once a country
formally joins the agreement there are no specific requirements about how and how
much countries should cut the emissions. Consequently, national plans also vary crit-
ically in their aspiration, mainly reflecting each country’s capabilities, their level of
development and contribution to emissions over time. China for example committed
to levelling off its carbon emissions no later than 2030 and reducing carbon emis-
sions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 60–65% from 2005 levels by
2030. India set its vision on cutting down the emissions intensity by 33–35% below
2005 levels and producing 40% of its electricity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030
(Denchak 2018).
These gases have a strong detrimental impact on global ecosystem, more impor-
tantly in developing and least developing nations. On a larger canvas, these countries
have many internal and external challenges. Internal in the sense to reduce poverty,
provide employment to their people, to increase living standards and external chal-
lenges like meeting out trade targets with other nations. Consequently, such demands
put a lot of pressure on natural resources and adoption of technologies which are
not environment friendly and thereby increase greenhouse gas emissions. The other
reason is that with the start of globalization a homogenous global culture has taken
Climate Change and Politics 313
place. People with traditional heritage revolving round the environmental preserva-
tion, they carried for generations got diminished by culture of consumerism. This new
culture of consumerism has generated artificial demand of goods and consequently
pressure on natural resources and unforeseeable impact on climate.
Looking at Syrian conflict from the angle of climate change, analysts admit that
there were multiple causes of Syrian civil war that began in 2014. Marwa Daoudy,
while writing on Climate Change and Human Security mentions that Syria has
suffered devastating consequences of climate change, but these consequences and
the seeds of their discontent are not solely due to climate stress. They can be found
in a quagmire of political, economic, social and environmental vulnerabilities that
impacted Syria’s most vulnerable population for decades before the 2011 uprisings
(Daoudy 2020). The data gathered by scientists shows that severe water shortages
in Syria, Iraq and Turkey killed livestock, shooting up of food prices, and sick-
ened children resulting in a mass migration of 1.5 million rural residents to Syria’s
densely packed cities at precisely the same time as that country was exploding with
immigrants from Iraq (Simon et al. 2019).
Climate change is a potential risk to human security and unfortunately the inter-
national community has not anticipated its associated risk to peace and security, e.g.,
neither UNFCCC nor the Kyoto Protocol contains any reference to human security.
However, the impact of climate change on peace and security has only been delib-
erated in a few instances at UN Security level, that held its first-ever debate in 2007
vis-à-vis the impacts of climate change on peace and security (UN Press Release
2007). This debate was initiated by United Kingdom and supported by small island
states. However, many developing countries like India and China felt that the Security
Council was not an appropriate platform to discuss the issue (The Guardian, April 8,
2007). On the other occasion in 2011, Ban Ki-moon (the then Secretary-General of
UN) stated in the security council session that “climate change not only aggravates
threats to peace and security, but is actually a threat to the peace and security” (UN
press release 2011). However, this session leads to the conclusion that the UNFCCC
is the primary forum for addressing and discussing climate change, but also noted
that “conflict analysis” on the “possible security implications of climate change” is
vital once climate problems drive conflicts, challenge implementation of Security
Council mandates or endanger peace processes (UN Press release 2011). If we look
at politics of arms race, there is a huge arms industry and a huge arms procurement,
particularly by developing countries. Due to this mad rat race for arms procurement
the climate issues always become the secondary concerns. Climate induced conflicts
can be avoided if big powers and their arms industries show some inclination towards
addressing developmental and climate concerns of developing and least developing
countries.
It is understood that climate change will overstress many societies adaptive capac-
ities within the coming decades. This may result in violence and destabilization,
consequently, jeopardizing national and international security. Nevertheless, there is
a hope that climate change could unite the international community, if nation-states
recognize climate change as a threat to humankind and soon set a dynamic and glob-
ally coordinated climate policy to avoid its devastating impacts. If it fails to do so,
314 Mohd. Y. Bhat
climate change will draw ever-deeper lines of division and conflict in international
relations (German Advisory Council on Global Change, World in Transition).
2 Climate Problem and Politics of Global Economy
The Human Development Report of 2013, highlights that economic growth alone
does not automatically translate into human development progress. The pressing
challenges before humanity are the issues like poverty eradication, climate change
and peace and security and the report stresses on a coordinated action to meet out these
challenges (Human Development Report 2013). However, the challenge before us is
that the ideology of neoliberalism (often bracketed under the heading of the “Wash-
ington Consensus) with its emphasis upon the role of free trade and markets and
restructuring of the state (Wilkin 2001). This ideology has now become a challenge,
as the changes it brought with it are inconsistent with human security. Industrialized
countries were mostly benefited by this ideology as they employed it to gain their
economic interests at the cost of the developing world. Today in the global poli-
tics territorial expansion is a risky job, rather economic development and trade are
now given preferences by industrialized and developed nations. This new mecha-
nism through the ideology of Neoliberalism has helped industrialized countries in
exploiting the resources of developing countries thus bringing in more gaps between
the rich and poor nations, and putting a huge pressure on the resources of poor and
developing nations.
Third world countries are at the bottom of the global economic hierarchy because
of the multiple problems like poverty, hunger, healthcare, broken infrastructure, lack
of money, resources and, access to information. Keeping in view the despicable situ-
ation of these countries, the Neo-Marxists argued that the global capitalist economy
controlled by wealthy capitalist states is used to impoverish the world’s poor coun-
tries. These theorists argued that free trade and international market relations occur
in framework of uneven relations between developed and underdeveloped countries
and work to reinforce and reproduce these relations.
Capitalists, however have a different perspective, as they saw in the philosophy of
neoliberalism an opportunity to free themselves from regulations and taxes. Francis
Fukuyama, a traditionalist, strongly criticizes the neoliberal policies imposed by
the United States on less developed countries, particularly in Africa. He showed,
how such policies failed states (Bresser 2009). This neoliberal ideology helped rich
countries to take control over week states that allowed national economies of week
states to become a playing field for large corporations, their top executives and
financial agents to obtain all kinds of rents—in lieu of moderate interest rates, fair
business profits and professional wages, of the economic elites (Ibid). International
financial institutions such as IMF and World Bank appear to have strengthened the
interests of MNCs (multinational corporations) and international financial capital,
rather than a long-term commitment to democracy and prosperity in the developing
countries. For example, India’s external debt crisis of 1991 brought the country close
to default in meeting its international payment obligations and under such challenging
situations India also adopted neoliberal or in other words “market-friendly” economic
policies (Siddiqui 2010). In India on embracing the ideology of neoliberalism was
accompanied by a change in the position of big bourgeoisie. The Indian bourgeoisie
since 1991 economic liberalization got increasingly integrated with the international
financial capital and pursued strategic alliances with western capital (Wolf 2006).
The paradox is that on the one hand corporate “friendly” government policies have
provided tax concessions of around $75 million between 2015 and 2016 (Peoples
voice 2015), but on the other hand, thousands of farmers are trapped in the cycle
of debt and poverty and are thus taking their lives. What is more shocking is that 3
lac plus farmers have committed suicide between 1995 and 2015 as per records of
India’s National Crime Records Bureau (Salam 2018). But in the whole scenario,
where their deaths can be related to poverty or unfriendly government policies, the
climate change footprints can also not be ruled out. Research points out that India
has already become third largest emitter of greenhouse gases after China and United
States (Sen 2020). It emitted around 2,299 million tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2018,
as per the reports of the International Energy Agency, accounting for 7% of the global
greenhouse gas emissions (Ibid).
The United States is the leading producer of carbon dioxide, and China is quickly
catching up. Many nations in the developing world are also expanding their output
considerably and these dynamics present a twin problem. First, the high-producers
have economies that heavily depend on fossil-fuel consumption. Next, the developing
nations resent pressures placed on them by the developed nations to restrict carbon
emissions, in full recognition that these older economies were built and enriched by
burning petroleum, coal and other fossil fuels (Haas and Hired 2013). In developing
world population growth is in tandem with their rising economies. The consumer
lifestyle of the middle class of these countries like India and China is akin to those of
developed countries like USA. Thus, twin impacts of rising populations and growing
economies produce a stronger incentive to continue to produce greenhouse gases.
These are the powerful incentives to overcome, and international institutions lack
the enforcement capabilities to compel behavioural changes. The challenge with
respect to developing nations is to dissociate economic growth from emissions and
to encourage developing nations to adopt cleaner and new green technologies. (Ibid).
3 Universal Initiatives on Climate Change
To ensure universal participation in controlling climate change, a number of initia-

tives have been taken and among them some important ones are Stockholm Confer-
ence, Rio Summits, Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement. Mitigation of adverse
impacts of climate change started with the 1972 Stockholm Conference popularly
known as United Nations Conference on Human Environment (UNCHE). This was
316 Mohd. Y. Bhat
the first step in which linkages between economic growth and environmental conse-
quences were accepted. The recommendations of the conference were disregarded
by industrialized nations, but it made sufficient impact in motivating United Nations
to establish the United Nations Environment Programme (Maikasuwa 2013).
It took another 20 years to the international community for convening United
Nations Conference on Environment and Development at Rio de Janeiro in 1992, the
outcome of which gave us the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC). The objective of UNFCCC was to stabilize greenhouse gas
concentrations into the atmosphere. But it has not been effective enough in catalysing
mitigation action to match the below 2-degree trajectory as its historical focus
on emission targets has been too narrow. Kyoto Protocol as the first extension to
UNFCCC was signed in 1997 but entered into force in 2005 with ratification of 55
states of Annex 1 signatories that together accounted for at least 55% of total carbon
emission at 1990 level. The Protocol committed its signatories to develop national
plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. As the Protocol is based on the principle
of common but differentiated responsibilities recognising the different capabilities of
individual countries it puts more responsibilities on developed nations to take a lead
in cutting down the emissions. Under the Protocol, Clean Development Mechanism
(CDM) was established which aimed at reduction of GHGs to support sustainable
development. In CDM developed countries were to invest in low cost abatement
opportunities in developing countries and also gave incentives to private sector to
invest in GHG-reducing projects (Zhang and Maruyama 2001). However, global
emissions had risen during Kyoto Period as United States and China were major
contributors of GHGs to erase all reductions made by other countries with exceptions
of some countries and EU who were on track by 2011 to meet and exceed their Kyoto
goals (The Guardian, 11 March 2011). The succeeding summits were Earth Summit
II (2002) popularly known as Rio + 10, which discussed sustainable development and
reaffirmation of commitment by world leaders to work towards sustainable develop-
ment. The subsequent Johannesburg summit was tall on setting new targets but again
there was little or no success in reduction of GHGs (O’brien and Willians 2007). Rio
+ 20 convened in 2012, to further assess the progress made in sustainable develop-
ment called for a wide range of actions for attaining sustainable development which
are (i) how green economies can act as the tools to achieve sustainable development
(ii) developing strategy for sustainable development financing (iii) adopting frame-
work for sustainable production and consumption and (iv) focusing on gender equity
as well as incorporating science into policy and involving civil society in mitigating
consequences of climate change. However, what is apparent, that nothing concrete
has been done to change the existing framework that weakens the capacities of devel-
oping countries to put in place policies for sustainable development of their societies
(Maikasuwa 2013). These summits were again superseded by Paris Agreement of
2015, which entered into force in 2016. This was the landmark agreement aimed to
combat climate change and accelerate all efforts for low carbon future. The central
concern of Paris Agreement was to strengthen global response to the common threat
of climate change by bringing all nations into common cause to undertake ambi-
tious efforts to combat climate change. It calls upon all nations to keep the global
temperature rise of this century 2 degree centigrade below the pre-industrial levels.
As of year, 2019, there were 189 countries that ratified the Paris Agreement with the
exception of only few major emitting countries like Russia, Turkey, and Iran. The
United States of America ratified the agreement in 2019, but within a short span of
time in same year took a decision to withdraw from the Agreement effective from
4th November 2020 in accordance to article 28 (1) and (2) of the Agreement (Paris
Agreement-status of ratification UNFCCC).
4 Challenges to Universal Participation
In achieving the goal of global participation there were certain hiccups particularly
the U.S. position has remained quite paradoxical on climate change negotiations
from 1985 to the present. In the late 1980s, United States advocated for universal
participation but latter rejected it by withdrawing from the Kyoto agreement in 2001.
That Kyoto agreement has been repudiated by President Bush, who has called it
“fatally flawed,” saying it places too much of the clean-up burden on industrial
countries and would be too costly to the American economy (New York Times, 24
July 2001).
In the cold war era, under the Bush Administration, the American Federal Govern-
ment refused to engage with the scientific data about climate warming or the global
political pressure to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The lack of commitment
from leadership from a historically powerful State has given room to other nations to
publicly or quietly fail to enforce the Kyoto objectives for reducing greenhouse gas
emissions to the levels of 1990 or preferably lower (Irwin 2008a, b). Under Obama
administration, USA again entered into Paris Agreement in 2016; however, Donald
Trump on 1 June 2017 made an announcement of ceasing all participation in Paris
Agreement, with a condition that we are willing to enter into any agreement only
“on terms that are fair to the United States, its businesses, its workers, its people, its
taxpayers” (Chakraborty 2017). His statement was based on America First Policy
and he was of the opinion that this climate agreement will undermine economic
interests of USA and will put America at a permanent disadvantage (BBC News,
June 1, 2017).
According to Pew Research Center which is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs
the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world, observe that
Liberal Democrats and Conservative Republicans see climate-related matters through
vastly different lenses. Their observation is that Liberal Democrats are more inclined
to environmental issues like Obama’s entry into Paris Agreement and now President
Joe’s intention to re-enter into Paris Climate Agreement. The Pew Centre finds that
Republicans are more sceptical about research findings of climate Scientists’ and their
318 Mohd. Y. Bhat
information and understanding on climate change (Pew Research 2016). This obser-
vation gives us a very disturbing impression of inconsistent public policy of USA
towards Climate change as we usually have alternative governments in American
elections.
Lastly, the literature on environmental politics, global governance, and interna-

tional relations has paid less attention to questions of participation. If we want to
search for issues of global warming and climate change, we usually find them in
last chapters of books written on international relations and global politics. Indian
novelist, Amitav Ghosh in an interesting book entitled “The Great Derangement:
Climate Change and the Unthinkable,” writes that climate change is even more absent
in the world of fiction than it is in nonfiction.
5 Developed Versus Developing Nations
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights that poorer nations

are extremely vulnerable to disasters and hence to the effects of climate change
for a number of reasons. First, the ability to adapt and cope with weather hazards
depends on economic resources, infrastructure, technology and social safety nets.
(IPCC 1995). Developing countries often do not have the resources and are thus
ill-prepared in terms of coastal protection, early warning, disaster response systems
and victim relief and recovery assistance (GEF 2001). Secondly, many developing
countries are already under pressure from population growth, rapid urbanization
and resource depletion, making them further vulnerable when these challenges are
coupled with the problem of climate change (IPCC 2001; Jepma et al. 1996).
There is too much apprehension among the developing countries who are lagging
in the technological advancement and most importantly if they have the resolve to
work for climate change, their economies don’t allow them to do so. The bone of
contention between developed and developing countries is that who is going to pay
for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It is recognized under UNFCCC that imple-
mentation of commitments by developing countries will depend on financial and
technical assistance from the rich nations (Winkler 2005). The concern of devel-
oping countries is historical in nature, “In Madrid Climate change Conference, the
key polluting countries accountable for 80% of the world’s greenhouse gas emis-
sions stood mute, while smaller countries announced that they will work to drive
down harmful emissions in the coming years,” Natural Resources Defense Council-
a US based climate action advocacy group observed that “World leaders dithered
instead of taking stronger, critical action soon to reduce the global climate threat.
They ignored dire scientific reports, worsening evidence of climate destruction and
demands from millions of young people to protect their future” (Dettmer 2019).
Climate change is a staggering problem for all countries that need costly regu-
lations and taxes to lower emissions and move economies away from dependency
on fossil fuels. In meeting these challenges there is a risk of backlash to govern-
ments, largely from lower-income workers and pensioners who cannot afford to bear
the brunt if governments take any measures to control GHGs. Squaring the circle
between those who demand fast-track climate-friendly measures and those who want
to slow down and mitigate the impact of moving towards a low-carbon future isn’t
going to be easy, say analysts. In Europe, Central European governments sense the
acute political danger to them and have been resisting a European Union plan to join
Britain in earmarking 2050 as the year the block has to be net zero” (Dettmer 2019).
320 Mohd. Y. Bhat
6 Indian Perspective
India was influenced by central planning model until the economic reforms of the
1990s. This economic model acted as straggler in its economic growth but was good
for environmental perspective with around 1.2 tonnes of CO2 emissions per head in
1994. This amounted to 3% of global emissions on that date. But after economic
liberalization that started in 1990s that resulted in economic growth on one hand
but figure of emissions also went up around 3.5 tonnes per person by 2006 and its
contribution to total emissions rose 50% as compared to 10 years earlier (Giddens
2009). World Health Organization (WHO) places Delhi as the most polluted city in
the world in terms of suspended particulate matter (SPM) (Hindustan Times 2018)
as a result of population pressure and haphazard and unplanned Industrial develop-
ment. Another factor is that emission standards particularly those of motorcycles and
scooters numbering around 6,648,730 are a big environmental concern as these vehi-
cles are considered major air polluters due to poor emission standards (Hindustan
Times 2018).
(a) Politics of CNG Fuel
Environmentalists recommend fuel switching from liquid fuels to natural gas as a

strong measure to protect environment. Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is a lead-free
fuel with no sulphur and particulate emissions and 1/10th level of carbon monoxide
emissions as compared to petrol. It is thus a highly environment-friendly motor fuel
for improving ambient air quality. It also produces much lower carbon dioxide as
compared to petrol and diesel oil thereby helping in mitigating global warming (Hilal,
2005). In view of increasing pollution levels in Delhi’s atmosphere by diesel-run
automobiles, two-wheelers and autorickshaws powered by two-stroke petrol engines,
number of directions were issued by the Supreme Court of India from time to time
(M.C. Mehta V. Union of India, Writ Petition (C) No. 13029 of 1985). On 28th July
1998, some more directions were issued fixing a time schedule after taking note
of the recommendations made by the Bhure Lal Committee. This Committee was
constituted on the orders of the Supreme Court under Environmental Protection Act,
1986. The Bhure Lal Committee stressed on the importance of the use of CNG as
a fuel and noted that it was imperative to have increased use of CNG as a fuel in
Delhi. However, the court in its order on 26th March 2001 observed that neither the
government authorities nor private bus operators acted seriously on such directions
(Yousuf 2020). The Supreme Court of India made an interesting observation that
though CNG at present is available as a clean fuel but entire process of controlling
vehicular pollution has been confused whether to opt for CNG as a fuel or not
on the pretext of Good CNG or Bad CNG. (M.C. Mehta vs. Union of India, 28
September 2001). All this was under discussion and delay tactics were involved to
introduce CNG as fuel in Delhi on safety pretext and other concerns without taking
into consideration its useability and efficacy. In Pakistan, the government introduced
CNG as fuel in 1992 and large number of buses were running on CNG fuel (Khan
and Yasmin 2014).
(b) Coal as Noxious Fuel
Lately, some opportune decisions taken by Government of India shows some seri-
ousness towards issue of climate change. Among G20 nations, India is hailed as a
country that has come close to meeting its 2015 Paris Agreement goals. Spending
a huge sum of nearly Rs 2,000 crore on its solar energy plan gives an impression
that the government seems to be keeping up with its pledge of generating 40 per
cent of power from renewable sources (Soni 2020). According to Climate Change
Performance Index’s (CCPI) report India ranked among the top 10 countries that
have adopted substantial measures to curb climate change (CCPI 2021), but there
are some forthcoming challenges as well. Although the present government’s vision
to make India a 5 trillion economy by 2024, environmentalist here has a concern that
more than half of the GDP dependents on coal. It being most polluting and respon-
sible for over nine million deaths globally with 50 per cent of such deaths coming
from India. Despite this, the central government endures to substantially subsidise
the coal mining industry, pumping in nearly Rs 60,000 crore annually. In 2015 the
government also introduced the Coal Mines Special Provision Act, which opened
the sector to commercial mining by private companies (Paroma, 2020). Public sector
Coal India Limited, established in 1975, still contributes 80% of domestic production,
of which 80% goes to thermal power plants.
Another challenge to climate change is a recent move by Government of India
aiming to create more jobs through the development of existing and new coal blocks
in central India. The central government wants India (with the world’s fourth-largest
coal reserves), to be a net coal exporter (The Economic Times 2020a). Coal Minister
is of the opinion that auctioning of 19 coal blocks for commercial mining can
generate total revenues of around rupees 7,000 crore per annum and create more than
69,000 jobs once they are operationalized (The Hindu 2020a). This move is not well
taken by environmental organizations, even former Environment Minister Jayaram
Ramesh has raised his concern on auctioning of coal mines to private sector The
Congress leader underlined that what sort of commitment is this towards fighting
global warming if coal blocks in very dense forest areas are being opened up for
mining. Secondly, the mining and transportation of coal will impose very heavy
environmental costs, in terms of loss of dense forests and consequently loss of a
valuable carbon sink (The Economic Times 2020b).
The above such initiatives hint us that development has been carried out at the cost
of sustainability and may be because India is a developing nation and its first prefer-
ence is to generate employment opportunities for its people. That is the reason, India’s
political system is not designed to hold political parties accountable for climate issues,
because it is not an electoral priority. Ramachandran Guha, a noted historian of India
is of the opinion that it is especially business community and generally middle class
who are quite unmindful of the ecological footprints of their lifestyles and issue of
urban environmental planning in both internal and external dimension is seriously
neglected in media and political circles (Guha 2010). How to address environmental
322 Mohd. Y. Bhat
issues in India? Guha suggests that we need to harness scientific and social scien-
tific expertise to develop and promote eco-friendly technologies. Scientific inno-
vations need to be complemented by legislative changes as well as by changes in
social behaviour. For this, we need new ideas, new innovations, new institutions and
perhaps, a more imaginative and less short-sighted political leadership (Guha 2010).
(c) Adoption of Electric Vehicles
Off late in 2013, Government of India started an ambitious National Electric Mobility
Mission Plan (NEMMP) 2020 for achieving national fuel security by promoting elec-
tric and hybrid vehicles. As part of NEMMP a scheme namely Faster Adoption and
Manufacturing of hybrid and electric vehicles in India (FAME) was adopted in the
year 2015 with an objective to replace conventional vehicles with hybrid and electric
vehicles. In order to boost demand-pull of such vehicles, the government has plans
to incentivise buyers by offering monetary support for purchasing such vehicles.
Under the scheme, producer of such vehicles will reduce the prices and that will be
compensated by the same reimbursement from government side (PIB, NEMMP).
In India, top Electric automakers are Mahindra Electric, Tata Motors, Hyundai and
Ashok Leyland with Tesla an American company as the new entrant. However, the
challenge to electric automakers is that Indian Electric vehicles market is still in
a nascent stage. As per Economic Survey of 2019–20 sales of such vehicles till
November 2019 was 280,000 units, but most of these vehicles were three-wheelers
that run on lead-acid batteries which is again an environmental concern and govern-
ment has decided to stop offering subsidies to such vehicles unless they switch over
to lithium-ion batteries (Hindustan Times, 3 February 2020). The major impediment
for adoption of electric mobility in country is high cost of lithium-ison batteries,
inadequate charging facilities, electrification of roads and most importantly afford-
ability is impeded by financing procedure of banks and financial institutions who
while offering loan look into buyer’s paying capacity in case of conventional vehi-
cles but in case of electric vehicles they look into vehicle longevity, battery life,
resale value, etc. (Bhat and Agrawal 2021). An independent study of Centre for
Energy and Finance (CEEW-CEF) estimates that there is an investment need of 180
billion dollars until 2030 to meet India’s electric vehicles ambition programme (The
Hindu, 8 December 2020b).
7 Chinese Perspective
Heavy industry was the main focus of socialist economies like former USSR as well
of China. In China, however, the initial stage economic growth was propelled by
smaller manufacturing plants and the latter stage by heavy industries. Though they
brought boom in economy but also resulted in environmental deterioration. State-
owned banks of China flushed with capital from overall China’s economic success
offered their coffers to the state-owned manufacturers. This process began to stag-
nate in late 2008, as credit around the world became scarce (The Economist 2008).
By this time Pollution from industries has already risen to crucial levels and China
realized that the solution to pollution lies in restructuring energy consumption and
eliminating production of highly polluting industries. Since 2013, the country took
the challenge of pollution seriously and introduced tough anti-pollution measures
such as the national action plan on air pollution. The country was divided into
provinces for imposing nationwide cap on coal use, for instance Beijing had to
reduce coal consumption by 50% between 2013 and 2018. Furthering its efforts,
China announced closure or cancellation of 103 coal-fired power plants in March
2017, which were capable of producing more than 50 gigawatts of power (Gardiner
2017). These measures gave hopeful sign of flattening the curve of CO2 emissions,
However, CO2 emissions from China continued to rise until 2019 even as much of the
world began to shift away from fossil fuels (McGrath 2020). Latest Climate Change
Performance Index of 2020 places China at 33rd rank (CCPI 2021) and it appears
that China has rolled back its policies of restriction on coal plants. In 2020 more coal
plants were allowed than in 2018 and 2019 combined. China now possesses roughly
half of the world’s coal power capacity and coal-fired power plants, which indicates
going against the global commitments (Climate action tracker).
Surprisingly, very recently in September 2020 President Xi Jinping made a bold
statement that China will strengthen its 2030 climate target (NDC), peak emissions
before 2030 and aim to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. “By playing the
climate card a little differently, Xi has not only injected much needed momentum to
global climate politics, but presented an intriguing geopolitical question in front of
the world: on a global common issue, China has moved ahead regardless of the US.
Will Washington follow?” (McGrath 2020).
8 European Perspective
The EU is at the forefront in setting out a trend by committing itself to significant cuts
in greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming. European Union as community
of nations gives a hope when it comes to initiatives in controlling greenhouse gas
emissions, be it Kyoto Protocol or latest Paris Climate Agreement. Climate finance
which is a long-term demand of developing countries is getting their lead support
from the European Union in tackling climate change (European Commission). Under
Kyoto Protocol different targets were negotiated for cutting of greenhouse gas emis-
sions, like USA was supposed to cut it by 7% and for European Union (EU) it was
8%. This was to be attained by multiple steps like emission trading for which EU
setup its own system in 2005 and by Joint Implementation and the Clean Devel-
opment Mechanism (CDM). By 2012, the only major signatory committed to the
Protocol and its extension was EU (Baylis et al. 2017).
EU not only played an instrumental role for the Paris Climate Agreement (2015)
but also formally ratified the agreement in 2016. European Union feels privileged
in achieving its 2020 emission target reduction as in 2018, its GHG emissions
were lower than in 1990 (European Commission). Forwarding its commitments for
324 Mohd. Y. Bhat
reducing emissions it established net zero goal along with scenario for how to achieve
it. Its focus is now on revising integrating national energy and climate plans for target
of 2030 climate and energy framework (Bazilian and Gielen 2020). Under its 2030
target, EU’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) is to reduce emissions by
40% as compared to 1990 and for achieving this all key EU legislation was adopted
by closing 2018 (European Commission). For net zero emission targets of 2050, the
European Commission is working under “Green Deal” initiative published in 2019.
This initiative was endorsed by leaders of European Council in December 2019,
however, Poland refused to commit to its implementation. The objection of Poland
stems from fulfilling its energy needs which are directly dependent on coal. Economic
activities of many towns of Poland and more than a quarter-million Polish jobs are
related to the fossil fuel industry. “You can’t expect Poland to leap to zero carbon in
30 years,” stated by Marchin Nowak, a coal industry executive (Dettmer 2019). Green
Deal is a package of measures for cutting GHGs through investment in cutting-edge
research and innovation. Under the Deal, EU wants to have a European Climate Law
by incorporating 2050 climate-neutrality goals in it. Another ambitious goal of the
Deal is European Climate Pact with the aim of engaging citizens and all parts of
society in climate action. In 2018 Climate Action Network Europe has published a
report titled “Off target Ranking of EU countries” to assess the progress European
Member States have achieved in fighting climate change under Paris Agreement like
progress in reduction of carbon emissions and promotion of renewable energy and
energy efficiency at home. In its ranking all EU countries were placed on off-target
place. The report illustrates that Belgium, Denmark, Germany and the UK are no
longer at the forefront of the fight against climate change and aim rather low despite
their relative wealth (Off target Ranking of EU countries, June 2018).
9 The Climate Change Performance Index 2021
The Climate Change Performance Index is developed by collective efforts of non-

profit organizations German Watch, New Climate Institute (Germany) and Climate
Action Network (CAN International). The objective of this Index is to assess the
progress made by 57 countries and the European Union, who are collectively respon-
sible for 90% global greenhouse gas emissions in the four categories namely GHG
emissions (40%), Renewable energy (20%), Energy use (20%) and Climate Policy
(20%). The Index prepared so enhances transparency in climate politics at interna-
tional level and enables comparison of climate protection measures and progress
made by individual countries.
Top 10 nations on the Climate Change Performance Index 2021
Climate Change Performance Index 2021
Rank Country Score
2 (None achieved 1-3 rank)
4 Sweden 74.42
5 United Kingdom 69.66
6 Denmark 69.42
7 Morocco 67.59
8 Norway 64.45
9 Chile 64.05
10 India 63.98
Source www.ccip.org
CCPI-2021 places European Union (EU) climate action in two different shades.
One for Scandinavian EU countries, Portugal and the EU ranking high on the index
with relatively good indicators, and the other within the block as laggards like
Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic. In overall performance, EU has been
placed at 16th place which is a quantum jump from its previous year’s 22nd place.
The report mentions that it is because of better climate policy of EU that has improved
its climate performance index. The EU has the capability to become a role model
for other countries by setting desirous climate target for 2030 in line with the 1.5 °C
limit and further development of its Green Deal. The report also cautions that it can
stumble badly if it pursues greenwashing instead of green recovery and implements
inadequate targets and instruments in the European Green Deal (CCPI 2021).
10 Conclusion
Development of a sense of belongingness to this planet as our common home starting

from self, home, society and nation-state to reduce the use of all those utilities which
are causing global warming is the need of the hour. Inculcating climate friendly
values in present and coming generations will produce a voice that will be heard and
326 Mohd. Y. Bhat
respected in future. Governments will be held accountable by voting and electing

those who work for climate friendly initiatives. The scientific community with polit-
ical support must develop new low-emissions technologies that may answer supply
push factors like targeted low-cost credit accessibility and demand-pull factors.
Special attention and cooperation should be paid to those countries who excel in
Climate Performance Index by UN and Intergovernmental Organizations, which will
be a motivation for other countries to perform for the cause. Climate finance, capacity
building and technology transfer is another area which needs attention of national
governments and world community. These initiatives shall not remain limited to
seminars, conferences and global summits but should be legally binding actions at
the local, national and global levels.
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Technological Solutions to Mitigating
Climate Change
Richard Betts
Abstract This chapter will consider solutions to mitigating climate change. Focus
will consider primarily technological solutions, but consideration will also be given to
nature-based solutions such as conservation of forests and restoration through rewil-
ding and afforestation. The natural world is our greatest ally in tackling the climate
crisis and our green assets such as our forests, swamps and oceans are currently
absorbing most of our carbon pollution. We need to protect our remaining green
assets and support their restoration at scale so that we can mitigate the worst of
global warming and start to reverse it. In short, technological solutions to the climate
crisis, and to the connected biodiversity crisis, are of course essential but they need
to supplement nature-based solutions and cannot replace them.
Keywords Climate crises · Climate resilience · Mitigation · Decarbonization

pathways · Clean energy · Electric vehicles
1 Introduction
This chapter will consider solutions to mitigating climate change. Focus will consider
primarily technological solutions, but consideration will also be given to nature-
based solutions such as conservation of forests and restoration through rewilding
and afforestation. The natural world is our greatest ally in tackling the climate crisis
and our green assets such as our forests, swamps and oceans are currently absorbing
most of our carbon pollution. We need to protect our remaining green assets and
support their restoration at scale so that we can mitigate the worst of global warming
and start to reverse it. In short, technological solutions to the climate crisis, and to
the connected biodiversity crisis, are of course essential but they need to supplement
nature-based solutions and cannot replace them.
Firstly, as high-level context, the Paris Agreement, the first global agreement on
climate change, has been ratified by all but 7 countries globally as of early 2021.
Donald Trump took the US out of the Paris Agreement in November 2020, but new
R. Betts (B)
Associate Partner of Climate Change & Sustainability Services EY, Manchester, United Kingdom
330 R. Betts
US President, Joe Biden, reinstated the US as soon as he assumed the Presidency in

January 2021. The Paris Agreement aims, through rapid decarbonization, to limit the
increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C1 above pre-industrial levels;
and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to a maximum of 1.5 °C, recognizing that
this would substantially reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. It also aims to
increase the ability of countries to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and
make ‘finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions
and climate-resilient development’. The Paris Agreement temperature goals should
be considered absolute maximum increases. Following the IPCC Special Report,
published in 2016, a 2 °C increase is now considered too dangerous as there is too
high a risk that it would push the earth’s climate system past a ‘tipping point’ that due
to planetary feedback loops would lead to runaway warming and to a global hothouse
earth by the end of the current century. However, just in the last few years, there have
been extreme climate-related events, unprecedented in severity and frequency, from
Australia to California and from the Amazon to the Arctic amongst many others.
Hence, global warming since pre-industrial levels, currently around 1–1.1 °C and
increasing, is already causing climate-related disasters, economic and human costs
across the world. Hence, the goal really needs to be to strive to reduce any warming
to a minimum and for this future warming that is currently already built into the
earth’s system due to feedback loops, to be reversed as soon as possible.
In addition to the Paris international accord, recently, and notwithstanding the
enormous disruption of the global C-19 crisis, many national and local governments
and companies, amongst other actors, have stepped forward to increase their climate
ambition and commit to net zero climate pledges. At the time of writing in early 2021,
for example, net zero commitments at or earlier than around mid-century have been
announced by China, Japan, South Korea, the EU, UK, Canada and South Africa
along with many smaller national states. The new US President, Joe Biden, has also
pledged to bring into force a net zero plan for the US now that he has formally taking
office. It is likely that this momentum will create further encouragement for other
countries to follow suit. As encouraging as these initiatives all are, we must recognize
that making a commitment is only the first step. Even more critical is the need for
rapid implementation and enforcement. This chapter will consider key solutions that
can enable this.
2 Jevons Paradox and Rebound Effects
Since the start of the Industrial Revolution, new energy sources have emerged that
have slowed, but not stopped, the growth of other energy sources. For example, coal
was replaced by oil in many forms of transportation, but global coal consumption
1 All global warming data is reported based on global averages. Some parts of the World are warming
at a much faster rate than the global average. In general, land areas are warming at around twice the
rate of the oceans and the Poles are the areas of the World experiencing the most rapid warming.
Technological Solutions to Mitigating Climate Change 331
has also continued to increase. Globally energy usage has risen at the same time
as those efficiencies and can even be enabled by them. This is known as Jevons
Paradox after the English economist William Stanley Jevon who observed in 1865
how technological improvements that increased the efficiency of coal-use actually
led to the increased consumption of coal in a wide range of industries. Similar trends
have been observed in other areas such as with the use of oil and natural gas. In
sum, energy efficiency can often lead to an increase in total demand, rather than a
decrease. In addition to Jevons Paradox, other important rebound effects have been
identified. Rebound effects occur when some of the savings from energy efficiency
are cancelled out by changes in people’s behavior. For example, savings from the
use of more energy-efficient products in the household would be more than offset if
they were used to purchase long-haul flight tickets.
The crucial insight these examples provide is that when considering pathways
for decarbonization, we need to take a systems approach that considers our highly
interconnected global economy and planetary systems together rather than consid-
ering issues or solutions in isolation. Hence, energy efficiency measures in isolation
may not help and may even be counter-productive if they lead to increased energy
consumption overall. Rapid growth in renewable energy will not be enough if fossil
fuel consumption also increases. What we need is to rapidly increase the supply
of renewable energy whilst maintaining, or decreasing, the total level of energy
consumption so that fossil fuel use is also reduced. This will also then negate rebound
effects.
3 Embodied Carbon
In considering all the potential technological solutions, it is essential that the total
life cycle environmental impact, and not just the operational impact, is considered.
Embodied impact includes the energy and CO2 e emissions released to create, manu-
facture, transport, use and dispose of each technology. Though essential, the infor-
mation on the whole life CO2 e impact of each technology tends to be very limited.
To assess embodied impact, a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is required, of which
there are different types each with different attributes and challenges as explored in
a paper by (Finnegan et al. 2018). Key to the development of the LCA is the creation
of a Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and at present there are 3 approaches, each with
its pros and cons, to creating this inventory: (i) process analysis (ii) input–output
analysis (IOA) and (iii) hybrid analysis (Crawford et al. 2017). Each can be used to
calculate the total energy use and whole life cycle CO2 e impact.
Nevertheless, it should be emphasized that although there is a significant embodied
CO2 e footprint for some clean technologies, the savings made during the use stage
tend to greatly overshadow these results (Finnegan et al. 2018). For example, studies
indicate that solar panels need, on average, up to 4 years to produce enough energy to
compensate for the energy used in their energy-intensive production phases (NREL).
332 R. Betts
4 1.5 °C Decarbonization Pathways (IPCC 2016)
Moving to consider pathways for decarbonization, the IPCC’s influential Special

Report presents a range of potential 1.5 °C decarbonization pathways. Clearly, all
are scenarios and since being published in 2016, the costs of many clean technolo-
gies such as solar and wind have reduced dramatically. The plummeting costs and
further breakthroughs in new technology mean that the potential mix of solutions for
decarbonization also needs to be continually reassessed. This includes, for example,
the extent to which fossil fuel solutions such as natural gas, and also nuclear tech-
nology, will be needed as bridging solutions in light of the rapid improvements of
many renewable technologies and plummeting costs. Furthermore, in many areas
technological change is extremely rapid and hence to try and model decarboniza-
tion pathways through to 2050 and beyond is fraught with many uncertainties due
to the rapidly changing landscape. As a result, discussion here will be limited to an
overview of what is needed before delving into more detail for many of the solutions.
Figure 1 shows a range of decarbonization scenarios for global primary energy
supply and electricity generation as examples. As can be seen in Fig. 1a, all scenarios
Fig. 1 1.5 °C decarbonization pathways for primary energy supply under different scenarios a and
for the electricity sector b2
2 Source IPCC Special Report (2016) Figs. 2.15 and 2.16.

show rapid decrease in fossil fuels without CCS after 2030 and after 2050 nearly all
fossil consumption is with CCS. Solar and wind dominate the energy mix along with
fossil use with CCS essentially in all decarbonization pathways. Nuclear, though
much smaller, is modelled to increase substantially from current levels in most
decarbonization pathways.
As Fig. 1b shows, there is a clearer decarbonization pathway for the electricity
sector. All the scenarios show rapid uptake of renewable energy, which is seen as
coming mainly from solar and wind. Nuclear is seen as being needed in all scenarios
and as being an important contributor (up to 20%) in 2 of the 5 example scenarios.
By 2050 electricity generation from fossil fuels is shown as zero or only minor in all
scenarios and nearly all of this is with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).
5 Renewables Introduction
Due to technology improvements and greatly reduced costs globally, renewables such
as solar and wind are now competitive with fossil fuels in most places of the world.
Indeed, a recent article in Bloomberg Green reported how for at least two-thirds of
the global population solar and wind were already cheaper than fossil fuels and how
just 10 years ago, solar exceeded $300 a megawatt-hour and onshore wind was more
than $100 per megawatt-hour, whilst in 2020 onshore wind is currently around $37
in the U.S. and $30 in Brazil, whilst solar is $38 in China (Quinson, 2020). It should
also be borne in mind that this analysis is based on direct costs only and excludes the
cost of negative externalities such as carbon emissions and air pollution from fossil
fuels.
In addition to technological improvements and reduced costs, the fossil fuel divest-
ment movement, which started around 10 years ago as a grassroots movement in the
US, has now become globally significant. The situation is changing rapidly but as
of January 2021, over 1,200 institutions had begun or committed to a divestment
from fossil fuels totaling over $14.5 trillion. Consequently, there is also increased
focus on the risk of stranded assets from fossil fuels. According to recent studies,
for the world to stay within a 1.5 °C carbon budget, most of the world’s fossil fuels
need to be left in the ground, or potentially only used with CCS. Partly as a result
of these trends and the associated uncertainty over future oil prices, in 2020, both
BP and Shell (2020) wrote down the value of their exploratory assets by billions
of dollars. 2020 also witnessed a spate of shale gas bankruptcies in the US whilst
Exxon was removed from the DJ index after a century. In 2020, Exxon, previously the
most valuable company in the world, was briefly surpassed by NextEra, America’s
largest renewable energy company, as that country’s most valuable energy company
in another major milestone for renewables (Egan et al., 2020).
In short, renewables such as solar and wind are now disrupting traditional indus-
tries including the power sector. They are also disruptive industries since they can
eliminate the concept of businesses and individuals as just customers by transforming
334 R. Betts
them into prosumers (producer–consumers) that compete with the electricity utili-
ties at the same time they buy from them. Indeed, as an example, European energy
utilities have lost an estimated half a trillion euros in asset value over the last decade
(Economist, 2013), partly because the emerging renewable energy market is highly
decentralized with many new competitors as individuals and businesses can all be
their own power plants.
6 Solar Energy
Moving on to consider the main renewable technologies, starting with solar energy,
aside from a small share of global energy provided by nuclear energy, currently
around 10% (World Nuclear Association, 2020), and a tiny portion of tidal power
(which essentially originates from the moon), nearly all our energy supply originates
from the sun.
At any given time, there is currently a massive 16,300 kW of solar energy arriving
on the Earth’s surface for every person in the world (Berners, 2019). Though some
parts of the world are blessed with more abundant solar energy, the overall abundance
of the sun’s energy means that most places should have enough for now. Indeed, an
IEA report indicated that the world’s current primary energy demand could be met
potentially by covering up to just 8% of the world’s major deserts with solar panels
(IEA, 2015) provided that the energy could be stored and transmitted over long
distances. Indeed, long-distance transmission is essential since the areas of highest
potential for solar energy often include areas such as deserts that are often located
far from population centres. Long-distance transmission is becoming more feasible
due to major improvements in cabling technologies including the use of high voltage
direct current (HVDC) cables that can replace high voltage ACs used at present.
Though the initial loss of electricity from transmission is greater with HVDC, losses
do not increase with distance, as opposed to ACs, which means they can source
electricity from a much larger area. HVDC cabling technologies offer the potential
of major economies of scale since they enable large-scale solar and wind parks,
often far from civilization, to be connected to major population centres. They can
also help overcome problems of intermittency: when there is not a strong wind, solar
is likely to still be possible, at least during the day. At night-time, if solar power is
not possible, wind power may be.
Solar energy currently provides around 2% of global energy mainly through solar
photovoltaic (PV) panels. Most photovoltaic panels currently on the market tend to
capture around 15–22% of the sun’s energy (Zeledon, 2018) whilst latest studies
have achieved efficiencies of around 40% but these panels are not publicly available
(Empire Renewable Energy).
Though solar panels can provide zero-carbon energy for many years, it is essential
to consider the full life cycle impacts for all technologies. In terms of solar, solar panel
production relies on energy-intensive processes during the mining of the quartz sand
and subsequent refining into silicon (Mulvaney, 2014). What this means is that on
average solar panels need at present 1–4 years to produce enough energy to compen-
sate for the energy used in their earlier production phases according to NREL. Solar
panels, and also wind turbines, should be designed to optimize life cycle performance
and also with circularity principles in mind. For example, applying circularity prin-
ciples means solar panels should be designed in a way that the constituent parts can
be easily disassembled at the end of their useful life as this will allow components
to be reused in new products and applications, minimizing landfill and reducing the
amount of new materials needed in the energy-intensive phases at the start of the life
cycle for solar panels and also wind turbines.
7 Concentrating Solar Thermal Power (CSP)
CSP systems generate solar power by using mirrors or lenses to concentrate a large
area of sunlight onto a receiver. Whilst solar PV has been growing rapidly in recent
years, solar CSP growth has been slow due to technical difficulties and high prices.
In 2017, CSP represented less than 2% of worldwide installed capacity of solar
electricity plants (Lilliestam, 2017). However, CSP is considered to have significant
potential not least as it can be used for storing energy during the night and hence in
helping to balance renewable energy production. As of 2019, global CSP capacity
was 6.2 GW, with 600 MW of capacity coming online during that year (REN, 2020).
8 Space-Based Solar Power (SBSP)
Space-based solar power (SBSP) is the concept of collecting solar power in outer
space and distributing it to Earth. One key benefit would be the potential to secure
a permanent source of clean energy, not susceptible to the diurnal cycles on Earth.
Another would be to secure much more powerful energy since a large fraction of
incoming solar energy (55–60%) is lost on its way through the Earth’s atmosphere
by the effects of reflection and absorption.
At present, SBSP is a technology that could offer great potential but probably
not until the second half of this century. SBSP is currently under investigation by
countries including China, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the US and China
announced in 2019 that it had launched a project to develop a first solar station in
space (Snowden, 2019). Though at present it seems like it will be a technology for the
relatively distant future; not least because the costs would currently be prohibitively
expensive to start with, the hope is that it will be possible to leverage new technologies
to greatly reduce the costs and the energy consumption in the initial phases. For
example, it might become possible to use new technologies such as 3D printing
so that solar stations could be assembled in space; as this would make it cheaper
and much less energy-intensive to install them there. Similarly, if in the distant
336 R. Betts
future humans can establish an off-world industrial base it could become possible to
manufacture solar power satellites out of asteroids or lunar material.
In addition to the costs and feasibility of the technology, there would be other
important obstacles to address including health concerns linked to solar radiation and
the inaccessibility and hostility of the space environment meaning that installation
and maintenance would probably need to be done telerobotically.
9 Wind
Wind energy is the use of wind to power wind turbines to turn electric generators
for electrical power. It is a renewable source of power with much smaller life cycle
greenhouse gas emissions than fossil fuel combustion (Table 1). In recent years, wind
energy has been growing rapidly. In the last few years, wind energy costs for both
onshore and offshore wind have reduced dramatically due to economies of scale
and improvements in technology. With no fuel costs and maintenance costs that have
been greatly reduced due to recent technological improvements such as gearless wind
turbines that have far fewer moving parts, wind is becoming extremely competitive
in the energy sector. The cost of financing is also becoming cheaper due to its lower
risk profile as the technology has started maturing.
Nevertheless, it has been estimated that from the solar energy that lands on earth
only around 2% is converted into wind energy (Smill, 2017). Furthermore, most of
that 2% is inaccessible to humans as it is high up in the jet stream whilst most of
the low altitude wind is far out at sea. There are also many constraints in terms of
geography and other land uses that restrict the remaining amount of wind that can
be accessed from land and coastal areas. Hence, though wind power can clearly be
important in contributing to decarbonization and significant in some regions such
as the British Isles, which are surrounded by windy seas, at a global level it seems
unlikely to be able to contribute anywhere near as much renewable energy as solar
energy.
Table 1 Life cycle CO2 -equivalent (including albedo effect) from selected electricity supply
technologies (gCO2 eq/kWh) IPCC (2018)
Technology Min. Median Max.
Pulverized coal 740 820 910
Gas-combined cycle 410 490 650
Hydropower 1 24 2,200
Solar PV–utility scale 18 48 180
Wind offshore 8 12 35
Nuclear 3.7 12 110
10 Offshore Wind
The last few years have witnessed major breakthroughs in terms of offshore wind.
Many of the largest developments are currently around the British Isles. For example,
Walney Extension in the Irish Sea, which is currently the largest offshore wind farm
in the world, can supply over one million homes with renewable energy. However,
still larger offshore wind parks are being installed off the English coast in the North
Sea. Hornsea 1, 2 and 3 are all set to supply more than 1 million homes once they
become fully operational over the next few years.
These major wind parks have been designed close to the coasts of England in order
to be able to supply some of the heavily populated areas in the North of England.
However, the UK has far more practicable resources, windier seas, off its other coasts
but these have been less accessible and are further from the main population centres.
Nevertheless, rapid recent improvements in technology have driven the supply chain
costs down, allowing larger blades to be constructed and in deeper waters. As an
example of a recent technological breakthrough, the world’s first floating station has
recently been built in Scotland. Floating stations offer the potential to expand offshore
wind to areas where winds are strongest and most consistent (rather than where
ocean topography is smoothest for turbines), creating the possibility of sourcing
wind energy from many areas that have hitherto been inaccessible. As the technology
improves still further, more areas will become accessible.
Offshore wind can also have advantages over onshore wind such as fewer plan-
ning restrictions or competing pressures for other land uses and no objections from
NIMBYs3 or NIMTOs.4 Nevertheless, in some regions, onshore wind is already
providing a substantial amount of local electricity needs as discussed in the next
sub-section.
11 Onshore Wind
Many of the largest operational onshore wind farms are in China, India, and the
United States. As of early 2021, the largest onshore wind park in the world is the
Gansu park in China, which when fully constructed will have a capacity of 20 GW.
Unfortunately, due to weak demand, to date around 60% of the wind park’s capacity
has gone unused (Vyas, 2018).
In addition to their environmental benefits such as zero emissions during operation,
onshore wind turbines also provide farmers and other landowners with an opportunity
to diversify their income and increase land value through the lease payments due
from the wind energy company. Nevertheless, many people are currently critical of
3 NIMBY–acronym meaning ‘not in my backyard’, which is used to describe opposition by residents

to proposed developments in their local area.
4 NIMTO–acronym meaning ‘not in my term of office’, which is used to describe political leaders
not wanting to implement a change during their mandate.

338 R. Betts
onshore wind farms, in part for the reasons noted in the preceding section, and also
over concerns of their visual impact on the landscape.
12 Off-Grid Solutions
Despite rapid improvements in renewable electricity and plummeting prices, in 2018

almost 800 million people still did not have access to electricity (WHO, 2020). For
example, in Africa, solar, wind and hydroelectric power are all growing rapidly but
with a rapidly increasing population currently set to reach 4 billion by 2100, it is
essential to staying within the world’s carbon budget that Africa adopts a renewable
pathway and that globally renewable electricity can be rolled out rapidly in emerging
economies. Hence, off-grid technologies, also known as distribution renewables for
energy access (DREA) technologies, which are renewable energy supply technolo-
gies operating independent of the national grid will be essential in many emerging
economies.
13 Hydropower
Hydropower refers to power that is derived from the energy of falling or fast-running
water, which may be harnessed for useful purposes. The most common use is for
generating electricity, in which case it is known as hydroelectric power. Hydropower
is produced in 150 countries. China is the largest producer and other countries where
hydropower provides a significant share of primary power include countries with a
lot of forest cover such as many of the Amazon countries in South America, Canada
and Sweden. The cost of hydroelectricity is relatively low, making it a competitive
source of renewable electricity.
A dam and reservoir are used to enable a flexible source of electricity, since
the amount produced by the station can be increased up or down very rapidly to
adapt to changing energy demands. In 2015, hydropower generated 17% of the
world’s total electricity and 70% of all renewable electricity (REN, 2020). However,
global growth in hydropower has slowed in recent years, perhaps at least in part
because the technology is arguably starting to approach what is possible in terms of
geography. For example, in his book ‘There is no Planet B’, Berners Lee calculated
the maximum potential for hydroelectricity production. The calculation was based on
first determining the amount of rain at different altitudes as a guide for the theoretical
maximum potential energy in global rainfall. From this, he contended that potentially
up to 5% of the potential head of water could be put through turbines and that even
if those turbines were 80% efficient, today’s global hydroelectricity production, at
0.45 TW, would already be at least two-thirds of the way to its maximum potential
(Berners Lee, 2019).
Once constructed, a HEP station produces no direct waste, and it can have a
considerably lower output level of life cycle greenhouse gases than not just fossil
fuel-powered energy plants but also renewable plants such as solar PV. However,
hydroelectric power is also subject to significant criticism due to the major alter-
ations that can arise in the local catchment biodiversity due to dam construction.
Furthermore, when constructed in lowland rainforest areas, since part of the forest
needs to be inundated, HEPs can be responsible for large amounts of methane (a
powerful greenhouse gas) and consequently much higher greenhouse gas emissions
even than a coal-fired power station.
14 Bio-Power Technologies
Bio-power technologies convert renewable biomass fuels into heat and electricity
using similar processes to those used with fossil fuels. Biomass refers to any plant or
animal matter reused as a source of heat or electricity, such as sugarcane, vegetable
oils, wood, organic waste and agricultural residues. Ways to release the energy stored
in biomass to produce bio-power include direct combustion, bacterial decay and
conversion to gas or liquid fuel (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/biopower-
basics). Most of IPCC’s GHG mitigation pathways include substantial deployment
of bioenergy technologies. Some researchers dispute the claim that the use of forest
biomass for energy is carbon neutral. However, it is currently the mainstream view,
supported by, inter alia, the IPCC, FAO and IEA.
Most electricity generated from biomass is produced by direct combustion.
Biomass is burned in a boiler to produce high-pressure steam, which flows over
a series of turbine blades, causing them to rotate. This rotation drives a generator,
which produces electricity. In combined heat and power (CHP) facilities, the steam
from the power plant can be used for manufacturing processes or to heat buildings.
For example, wood waste is often used to produce both electricity and steam at paper
mills.
In terms of bacterial decay, organic waste material, such as animal dung or human
sewage, is collected in oxygen-free tanks where the material is decomposed by anaer-
obic bacteria that produce methane and other byproducts to form a renewable natural
gas, which can then be purified and used to generate electricity.
Biomass can also be converted to a gaseous or liquid fuel through gasification and
pyrolysis.
As explored elsewhere in this chapter, when considering using biomass as a feed-
stock, it is critical to take a holistic approach and mitigate other potentially signifi-
cant negative externalities that may arise, such as exacerbating deforestation or food
hunger risks if more land is allocated to biofuel crops. Where bio-power can be used
sustainably, the consensus is that in the short term, emissions from bio-power might
rise compared to a no-bioenergy scenario. This is because, as explained by the IPCC,
forest carbon emission avoidance strategies give a short-term carbon benefit but these
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may be overcompensated over the longer-term if, for example, biomass is sourced
sustainably from forests (IPCC, 2019).
15 Geothermal Energy
Geothermal energy is thermal energy generated and stored in the Earth, which orig-
inated from the original formation of the planet and from radioactive decay of
materials. Geothermal power is considered cost-effective, reliable, sustainable, and
environmentally friendly (Glassley, 2015), but has historically been limited to areas
near tectonic plate boundaries. Recent technological advances have dramatically
expanded the range and size of viable resources, especially for applications such as
home heating by using geothermal or ground source heat pumps (GSHP), opening
a potential for widespread exploitation. Geothermal wells release greenhouse gases
trapped deep within the Earth, but these emissions are much lower per energy unit
than those of fossil fuel.
Geothermal power is considered renewable because any projected heat extraction
is small compared to the Earth’s heat content. The Earth has an internal heat content
that is approximately 100 billion times the 2010 worldwide annual energy consump-
tion (Fridleifsson et al., 2010). The planet is slowly cooling down on geologic
timescales and human extraction currently taps a minute fraction of the natural
outflow. However, although theoretically Earth’s geothermal resources could more
than sufficiently supply the world’s energy needs, only a very small fraction can be
profitably exploited as drilling and exploration for deep resources is very expensive.
Globally, the countries with the most installed geothermal electric capacity are
currently the US, Philippines, Indonesia, Mexico and Italy. At the end of 2019,
the IGA (International Geothermal Association) reported that total global installed
capacity was around 15.4 GW but that globally, geothermal power generation
capacity could almost double to around 28 GW in the next 15–20 years (IGA, 2020).
16 Air Source Heat Pump (ASHP)
Another form of heat pump that can be used to replace a conventional heating system
is an Air Source Heat Pump (ASHP). In short, the pump absorbs heat from the outside
air to supplement underfloor heating systems and/or provide hot water. The ASHP
can extract heat from the outside air even when temperatures are as low as − 15 °C
(Finnegan et al., 2018).
In sum, heat pumps are increasingly seen as an essential solution for heat decar-
bonization. Though the technologies already exist they are not yet widely in use.
However, momentum is now starting to accelerate. For example, the UK Govern-
ment’s recent 10-point plan for a green industrial revolution, brought forward the ban
on gas boilers for new homes to 2023 and introduced a new target to install 600,000
heat pumps every year by 2028 (ISO Energy). The UK Government’s official advi-
sors, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), report that 19 million heat pumps
need to be installed in the UK by 2050 Net Zero (2019).
17 Wave and Tidal Energy
Some studies have suggested that wave and tidal energy could supply at least 10%
of the world’s energy consumption (SEED). Nevertheless, most deployments to date
have been small-scale demonstration and pilot projects and these resources remain
largely untapped. However, due to recent advances in research and technology they
are now starting to become more competitive. At the end of 2019, there was an
estimated 535 MW of operating capacity concentrated mainly in Europe (REN,
2020).
18 Tidal Energy
Tides are more predictable than the wind and the sun. Tidal power is taken from
the Earth’s oceanic tides, which captures the energy of the current caused by the
gravitational pull of the Sun and Moon. The world’s largest tidal power station in
terms of output is currently the Sihwa Lake Tidal Power Station in South Korea,
which opened in August 2011 Tidal Power Station.
19 Wave Power
Wave power is the capture of energy of wind waves for purposes such as electricity
generation. Global resources of coastal wave energy have been estimated as being
in excess of 2 TW[40]. Locations with the greatest potential for wave power include
western Europe, the northern coast of the UK, and the Pacific coastlines of North and
South America, Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. In 2000 the world’s
first commercial Wave Power Device, the Islay LIMPET, was installed on the coast in
Scotland and connected to the National Grid (Edie, 2000) before being subsequently
decommissioned in 2012 (BBC, 2013).
20 Nuclear
Nuclear power plants can generate electricity without emitting carbon pollution and
that can seem cheap when calculated on the cost of electricity per kilowatt, but
342 R. Betts
only if governments assume responsibility for insurance risks and responsibility for
waste disposal. Nuclear energy is also a stable energy source, which means it can
provide a more stable energy supply than renewables can at present. Hence, even if
more expensive than renewables, there can be justification for using some nuclear
in the energy mix as a baseload. However, given how rapidly solar and wind power
can become operational, coupled with their plummeting costs, there can also be an
opportunity cost with nuclear: in the decade or so it may take to get a new nuclear
plant up and running, in many cases other low carbon technologies could have been
used and for a much smaller investment.
Undoubtedly of all the energy types, none divides opinion as strongly as nuclear
power does having both strong supporters and critics. Since the 1950s there have
been a handful of major high-profile nuclear disasters including at Fukushima, Japan
(2011), Chernobyl, in the current Ukraine (1986) and the Three Mile Island accident
in the US (1979). Nevertheless, supporters could also cite a NASA study that indi-
cates when the whole life cycle is considered nuclear deaths have been much lower
than many alternatives and that the use of nuclear energy helped avoid 1.84 million
premature air pollution-related deaths over the period 1971–2009 (Kharecha et al.,
2013).
Advocates of nuclear also argue that nuclear energy has enabled the world to
avoid billions of tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions and during a period when often
there were no other viable low carbon alternatives. Indeed, estimates of the savings
from high-profile studies have been in the range of 55–64 billion tonnes since the
mid-1970s (IEA; Biello (2013).
According to statistics from the IEA the number of nuclear power plants increased
rapidly from the industry’s beginning in the 1950s with global nuclear power-
generating capacity peaking in 2010 at 375 GWs. Since then, however, nuclear’s
share of the global energy mix has been in decline (Gourmellon, 2014). In 1996,
nuclear power supplied around 18% of the world’s electricity (OECD, 2011) but
by 2020 this had declined to around just 10% (World Nuclear Association, 2020).
As contrast, renewables (including hydroelectric power) contributed 19% of global
electricity generation capacity in 2000 but 26% by 2019 (Ritchie et al., 2015).
Nuclear power is well established in some countries such as China but nuclear
has lost support in other countries recently where it had been widely used. For
example, in the aftermath of the accident at the Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant
in 2011 in Japan, the public backlash against nuclear energy that ensued resulted in
all the country’s nuclear plants being shut down by the following year. Similarly,
following the disaster, plans for nuclear plants were abandoned in countries around
the world including Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan (Flannery, 2015). However,
the biggest reaction was arguably in Germany where at the time of the disaster
nuclear power plants provided around 17% of the country’s power but where the
German government announced it would shut all the country’s nuclear plants by
2022 just shortly after the disaster (World Nuclear Association, 2015). Even France,
which has been a world leader in nuclear technology, has announced plans to reduce
its dependence on nuclear power from 75–50% by 2025 with the reduction being
replaced by massive investments in solar and wind power (Carnegy, 2014).
In addition to concerns over safety, the financial considerations have changed

significantly recently. As already noted, the cost of solar and wind has plummeted
whilst nuclear has become more expensive, for example due to increased safety and
security costs. Solar and wind assets can be acquired seemingly ever more cheaply
at small scale and can become operational in a very short space of time. Conversely,
nuclear power is only viable for large-scale investments that cost billions of dollars
and typically take years to complete with the financial investment taking decades
to pay off. Given that solar and wind power are still less mature technologies, at
an earlier stage of the ‘learning’ curve, their cost can be expected to continue to
decrease and the price differential with nuclear continue to increase. Hence, new
nuclear power is currently increasingly looking viable only where governments are
prepared to intervene and provide large-scale financial support such as subsidies as
well as to accept insurance risk and decommissioning responsibilities.
Moreover, the issue of long-term storage of high-level nuclear waste remains
highly problematic. Despite the fact the waste will remain highly radioactive for
thousands of years, there is not currently a single long-term, high-level nuclear
waste facility anywhere in the world (World Nuclear Association, 2015). Concerns
over radioactive waste and storage concern both routine and accidental radioactive
discharges into the environment. Critics also worry about the risk of nuclear prolif-
eration, since the basic process used for nuclear energy is essentially the same as that
used for nuclear weapons.
Notwithstanding the limitations, supporters could argue that at least the toxic
waste is stored—unlike some of the waste from O&G such as carbon emissions,
which are currently released at all stages of the O&G life cycle and are major
contributors to the global climate crisis.
Currently, there are more nuclear power stations reaching retirement age than
there are new ones in the pipeline and building a new one is a much bigger invest-
ment than, as a contrast, putting up a few million solar panels. Hence, in sum, it
seems unlikely there will be a major uptake of nuclear energy other than perhaps
at the local level in a few countries where there is favourable Government support.
Nuclear energy is a sizable component of the energy mix in numerous countries and
nuclear reactors can be in use for decades. Hence, due to the plummeting prices
of renewables and increased safety concerns, it is unlikely that the contribution of
nuclear to the global energy mix will substantially increase and is more likely to
decrease. Having said that, despite the cost, nuclear energy does provide a more
stable baseload than renewable solutions currently do, though this can be expected
to change in the coming years with continued improvements to storage technologies
and also to green hydrogen. In addition, recent breakthroughs in nuclear technology
using a thorium reactor offer the potential for safer, cleaner and much more abundant
energy and much less nuclear waste production (Martin, 2019). As an example of
the abundance of thorium, The Thorium Energy Alliance estimates that just in the
US there is enough thorium to power the country at its current energy level for over
1,000 years (World Nuclear Association, 2020). Furthermore, according to studies,
just 1 tonne of thorium provides the same energy as 200 tonnes of uranium or 3.5
million tonnes of coal The Green Age (2020). However, development of thorium
344 R. Betts
power is in its infancy and hence initially start-up costs would likely be extremely
high and as of early 2021, there are no operational thorium reactors in the world
(Forsberg et al., 1999). Nevertheless, thorium technology has the potential to be both
a game changer for nuclear energy and being able to contribute significantly to global
decarbonization goals.
21 Nuclear Fusion
Fusion is the process that powers the Sun and other stars, where hydrogen atoms fuse
together to form helium, and matter is converted into energy. According to recent
studies, a viable nuclear fusion reactor could be developed by 2025 (Choi, 2020;
Creely, 2020). If such a breakthrough for nuclear fusion is achieved, it would offer the
potential of generating an almost inexhaustible source of clean energy. However, to
date progress has been held back due to the complexity of the engineering challenges.
Many countries are involved to some extent in fusion research including the European
Union, the US, Russia, Japan, China and Brazil (World Nuclear Association, 2020).
In short, if nuclear fusion can be achieved on earth it would be a potential game-
changer as a solution for tackling climate change. However, if nuclear fusion were
developed with it would come the need for the development and implementation
of appropriate governance and control mechanisms to ensure the responsible use of
such an incredibly powerful energy source.
22 Fracking
Proponents of fracking have argued that it can be used as a bridging technology until
renewable energy solutions are widely available. However, with the plummeting costs
of renewable energy costs combined with safety concerns around fracking, these
assumptions are increasingly being reassessed. Furthermore, even though fracking
may have lower carbon emissions in core operations, the risk of methane gas leaks,
not just at the time of drilling, but at any time subsequently, mean that the total lifetime
emissions from fracking may actually be much higher than from conventional fossil
fuel combustion.
In addition, it takes a lot of energy to run the fracking process itself–and this
makes the carbon benefits marginal even if there are not any leaks. Furthermore, it
may take years to get all the necessary approvals to allow fracking production by
which time countries need to be well advanced in decarbonizing their economies.
In short, due to the risk of GHG emissions from methane gas leaks as well as other
significant limitations and challenges, fracking does not seem to have a significant
role to play in decarbonizing the global economy.
Table 2 CO2 emissions per

Mode of transport CO2 emissions per passenger (kg)
passenger (kg) for different
modes of transport Car 36.6
Train 5.2
Coach 4.3
Source Written parliamentary answer Monbiot (2006)
23 Transportation
Moving now on to consider decarbonization options for transportation, the following

table is an extract from a table in George Monbiot’s book ‘Heat’ published in 2006
(Table 2).
According to the study above, the CO2 intensity per person on a coach is only
12% of the intensity for cars with an internal combustion engine. Unfortunately,
in many countries coach travel is not a viable option due to issues such as poor
connectivity with other transport modes. However, investing in public transport, in a
coach network, in well-connected cycle- and walkways and improving the connec-
tivity between different transport modes has the potential to achieve rapid reductions
in GHG emissions. However, though this may be feasible in theory, there are also
important societal and human behavioural obstacles that would need to be over-
come. Many people see a car as a status symbol and hence the notion of giving up
owning a car and embracing public transport instead can seem counter-aspirational.
In short, public transport offers significant opportunities for decarbonization but to
decarbonize the transport system we will of course also need to decarbonize private
vehicles and it is to these we now turn.
24 Electric Vehicles
An electric vehicle (EV), is a vehicle that runs on an electric motor. There are two
basic types of EVs: all-electric vehicles (AEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehi-
cles (PHEVs). An electric vehicle may be powered by electricity sources including
battery, solar panels, fuel cells or an electric generator.
EVs are rapidly becoming popular due to improvements in the technology, reduc-
tions in costs and their environmental benefits. For example, EVs release no tailpipe
air pollutants at the place where they are operated. EVs are charged with electricity
mainly sourced at present from the regional electricity grid mix. Globally, most elec-
tricity is currently sourced from power stations using fossil fuels, though globally the
carbon intensity of the electricity grid mix is reducing due to rapid uptake in renew-
ables. Hence, for maximum climate impact, EVs should run on renewable energy.
As a broad generalization, around 70% of the carbon footprint of driving an ICE is
down to the fuel and the rest from the emissions involved in manufacturing the car
346 R. Betts
in the first place (IEA, 2020). Electric vehicles are responsible for fewer emissions
in use even if the electricity has all come from a coal power station, because their
engines are so much more efficient than ICEs.
EV technology has improved dramatically recently and sales are now starting to
grow rapidly. EV sales in the 3 main markets of North America, Europe and China are
now starting to increase rapidly. At the end of 2020, EV market share of new car sales
was as high as 54% in Norway for the full year and 67% for December (The Guardian,
2021). Whilst in the larger economies in H1 of 2020, France led with 9%, followed by
the UK and Germany both with around 8% and China with 4% EV (2021). The global
EV fleet was set to reach 10.5 million vehicles by the end of 2020 (Ibid). Quarterly
EV sales of Tesla reached around 100,000 vehicles globally by the end of 2020 and
Elon Musk, their CEO, is targeting annual sales of 20 million EVs by 2030 (Business
Insider, 2020). Most of the other major car manufacturers now have EV models and
are investing heavily in this area. Indeed, linked to the global decarbonization and
net zero agenda, many countries now have phase out plans for diesel and other
ICE vehicles, which are currently mainly between 2030 and 2040. Hence, there
is now a clear direction of travel away from ICE vehicles towards clean transport
and for light vehicles this transformation is currently focused on electrification. For
heavy vehicles, green hydrogen may be an effective decarbonization solution. Green
hydrogen is discussed later on in this chapter.
25 Aviation
Aviation, and also shipping, is at a much earlier stage in decarbonization than much of
road transport. Pilot studies have been successfully conducted for small-scale electric
planes but, as of early 2021, there have not been any commercial flights using electric
planes. Some companies are investigating the potential of using hydrogen, but this
is similarly at a very early stage. More advanced is the use of some biofuel blends to
replace jet fuels. However, use of biofuels needs to be carefully managed since only
under certain conditions may they be sustainable. Biofuels are discussed further in
the next section.
26 Biofuels
Biofuels are fuels produced from biomass. Biofuels can be produced from plants
or from waste that had a biological origin such as from agriculture. The two most
common types of biofuel are bioethanol and biodiesel. If the biomass used in the
biofuel production can regrow quickly, the fuel is normally considered as being a
form of renewable energy. Extreme care is needed in using biofuels as without proper
planning there is a real risk that any emission savings from biofuel consumption
will be more than offset by increases in emissions from elsewhere in the life cycle
and that other severe negative externalities will arise. For example, if biofuels are
sourced from palm oil grown in South East Asia or ethanol from the Amazon then
there is a real risk that life cycle emissions will increase due to high emissions from
rainforest being cleared to make way for growing biofuels. Similarly, using first-
generation biofuels, whereby edible crops are used to make liquid hydrocarbons,
risks exacerbating global issues around food poverty since indirectly this could lead
to increases in food prices and increased risk of food poverty. Indeed, already around
1 billion people globally are malnourished or undernourished.
More attractive is the idea of using second-generation biofuels whereby liquid
fuels are produced from cellulose, enabling high yielding energy crops to be grown,
but only on marginal land that cannot be used for food agriculture so as not to
exacerbate global issues connected to food hunger and deforestation. However, the
use of marginal land still requires detailed analysis in order not to threaten other
ecosystem services and exacerbate what is already a global crisis of biodiversity
loss.
Some experts propose the use of algae as a biofuel since micro-algae grow incred-
ibly fast and are responsible for 40% of the world’s current levels of carbon fixation
(Berners Lee, 2019). It is estimated that there could be millions of algal species that
could be used to help develop efficient biofuel resources. However, the technology is
at an initial stage and there are obstacles to overcome ranging from species selection
(breeding and genetics) to refining and processing of oils (Hannon et al., 2010).
27 Renewable Hydrogen
Hydrogen is already an energy carrier with a well-established global market but at

present, around 95% of hydrogen production comes from fossil fuels (Hydrogen
Production). However, hydrogen can be produced from a wide variety of sources,
including renewable sources, such as solar and wind, tidal and wave energy and
then stored safely in the form of hydrogen gas. Recent technology improvements
are starting to make renewable or ‘green’ hydrogen much more feasible. Renewable
hydrogen is potentially extremely significant in decarbonizing the world’s energy
supply since it can be safely stored and transported as zero-carbon hydrogen gas,
renewable energy would then become permanently available without intermittency
problems. Thus, it also offers the potential to help decarbonize hard-to-electrify
sectors such as long-distance transport and heavy industries like cement and steel
and replace fossil fuels as a zero-carbon feedstock in chemicals and fuel production.
Green hydrogen also offers significant potential for decarbonizing heat, which is at
a much earlier stage of decarbonization than power.
Due to its potential as an energy carrier, renewable hydrogen offers countries
and regions that are rich in renewable energy resources such as Australia and North
Africa the potential to supply other regions of the world that do not have such natural
resources. However, to realize the potential of renewable hydrogen, numerous chal-
lenges will need to be overcome including issues around managing safety, developing
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new and retrofit infrastructure and the development and implementation of a stable
long-term policy landscape to accelerate investment.
In addition to green hydrogen, other studies are focusing on using carbon capture
and storage (CCS) to decarbonize hydrogen produced from fossil fuels (‘blue’
hydrogen). Many experts argue that blue hydrogen is essential, at least in the short-
term, as a bridging technology until green hydrogen is widely available at scale.
However, this view is contested by many; as noted, blue hydrogen relies on CCS,
which is still in its infancy. Another risk to blue hydrogen is in terms of the poten-
tial for significant upstream methane leakage, and hence potentially extremely high
GHG emissions, from CCS installations.
28 Carbon Capture Storage (CCS)
CCS involves stripping carbon out of fuel before or after being burnt. CCS facilities
at the point of combustion can be important for certain large sources of combustion
whilst fossil fuel persists in the energy mix. CCS technology has been used for
decades to purify natural gas and other gas streams at industrial facilities.
For CCS to be viable, however, it is essential that the geology is favourable
and suitable geological reservoirs include old oil or gas fields, saline aquifers and
unmineable coal seams. In addition, CCS is essentially viable in certain areas for
new builds only as it is difficult to retrofit power plants with CCS. Power plants tend
to have economic lives of 30–40 years and hence for CCS to contribute effectively
to global decarbonization goals it needs to be scaled up rapidly.
An inherent problem, however, with using CCS with power plants is that extra
energy is required to run the CCS processes, with estimates ranging from 14–40%
based on the type of plant (Rubin et al., 2005), meaning that the electricity generation
would become much more expensive than for a plant without CCS, at least when
externalities are excluded. The additional CO2 generated from burning the fuel to
power the plant can also be buried and studies indicate a net carbon saving of 80–90%
compared to a plant without CCS (IPCC, 2005).
CCS includes Integrated Gasified Combined Cycle (IGCC) methods that are used
to transform coal into a gas and then mixing it with oxygen to power a gas turbine. A
second method is to burn the coal in oxygen-enriched air and recycle the exhaust gases
back through the combustion chamber to create an exhaust gas that is predominantly
CO2 . The CO2 then needs to be separated out from the materials it was mixed with and
then compressed into a liquid for transport and subsequent storage in geologically
suitable strata where it can remain for millions of years.
To date, however, CCS investments have been relatively minor with many focused
on prolonging the life of fossil fuels. These have included injecting CO2 into oil
wells to enhance oil recovery or to capturing CO2 emissions from the smokestacks
of coal-powered power plants. According to the 2019 Global Status of CCS report
Global (2020), there are now 51 commercial-scale CCS plants across the Americas
(24), Europe and Asia-Pacific (both with 12) and the Middle East (3). Of the 51
facilities, 19 are operational, 4 are under construction and 28 are in different phases
of development. The report states that, to date, 260 million tonnes of anthropogenic
CO2 emissions have been permanently stored and the global capture and storage
capacity of CCS plants in operation or under development globally is around 40
million tonnes per annum. Nevertheless, CCS is seen as viable at a large scale from
CCS 2030 onwards (Budinis, 2018).
CCS has the potential to help significantly reduce emissions from major energy-
intensive industries such as steel, cement and chemicals production. Advocates state
it is one of the few technologies that can deliver negative emissions on a large enough
scale to support global decarbonization goals. Nevertheless, as already noted, to date
many of the CCS plants have been used to inject the captured CO2 into oil fields to
enable further oil extraction.
CCS is likely to be politically attractive and popular with many industries as it
could allow the use of abundant national fossil fuel reserves that would otherwise
need to be left in the ground and to preserve some of the largest emission-intensive
industries.
In addition to CCS, CCUS (carbon capture usage and storage) technologies, focus
on the use of CO2 after its capture and transportation as a resource to create valu-
able products or services, providing the foundation for carbon removal or negative
emission technologies, some of which are discussed later on in this chapter.
29 Biological Carbon Capture and Storage (Bio-CCS)
Bio-CCS is a process whereby waste biomass is burned and then the resulting CO2
is captured and stored at depth in rock strata. The amount of carbon generated by
burning biomass depends on many factors. However, around half of dry matter is
carbon, meaning it would be necessary to burn at least 2 billion tonnes of bone-dry
feedstock such as sawdust to generate 1 billion tonnes of carbon storable as CO2
(Ibid). The costs for this currently immature technology are likely to be expensive
though they are likely to reduce as the technology improves.
In addition, there are many other biological carbon removal technologies, some
of which are explained later in this chapter.
30 Agriculture
Globally, food production is responsible for around a quarter of global emissions

(Ritchie, 2019), principally due to land use change (e.g. deforestation), methane
emissions from cattle, emissions from fertilizer usage and soil losses. Due to the
global population increasing rapidly and becoming more affluent (and hence leading
to dietary changes and consumption of more food, including more carbon-intensive
food such as red meat), under the current trajectory emissions and other negative
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externalities from agriculture are set to rapidly increase. Hence, solutions for tackling
emissions from agriculture are essential and there are a wide range of emerging
solutions. Many revolve around regenerative agriculture whereby the focus is on
conservation and rehabilitation of the topsoil, which offers the possibility of greatly
improving carbon sequestration whereby potentially huge amounts of carbon can
be stored in the soil, amongst many other benefits. Carbon is stored directly in soil
such as through humus, but the amount varies greatly due to land use. For example,
cell grazing whereby a herd moves from one area to the next after a short period of
time (hence imitating the grazing routines of the ancient roaming herds) may result
in increases in soil carbon. A key issue for using soils as a decarbonization strategy
has been the lack of precise data to measure how much carbon is or can be stored in
different types of soil. However, recently there has been progress in this area with
one recent public announcement on a new digital technology that would allow the
amount of soil carbon in a field to be mapped on a real-time basis to a level of
precision 10,000 times better than traditional methods (Jonnes).
There are also emerging technologies that focus on replacing meat and even
plant foods with substitute foods. For example, the Finnish company, Solar Foods,
has pilots focused on making edible proteins from electrolysis based on renewable
energy and without the use of any animal or plant inputs. According to the company,
factories for solar foods could be built in areas that are not suitable for food production
with current methods, but that have solar or wind energy potential, such as the deserts
or potentially even space.
Solar Foods’ protein product is made by using electricity, sourced from renewable
energy, to extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and combining it with water,
nutrients and vitamins. Products such as solar foods could potentially have a major
impact on food production (Monbiot, 2020), since potentially agriculture would no
longer be needed to produce food and the land freed from agriculture could be
reforested or allowed to rewild and hence converted into carbon sinks. Though the
technology is at an initial stage, the potential rewards from solar food are so immense
that they warrant major further research to better understand and corroborate the
benefits.
31 Geo-Engineering
31.1 Direct Interference with Sunlight–Solar Manipulation
The most widely discussed geo-engineering proposal to date is the idea of injecting
sulphur into the stratosphere in order to reflect sunlight back to space and allowing
the Earth’s surface to cool. The concept has been inspired by what already happens
naturally when volcanoes erupt, injecting huge amounts of dust and sulphur into the
stratosphere. However, this also highlights many potential major risks concerning
implementation including in terms of health and safety, ethics and governance. Recent
studies suggest direct financial costs for the core operation of injecting the sulphur as
being in the range of $ 2–8 billion (McClellan et al., 2012). It is important to note that
these costs do not price in externalities, such as might result from changing rainfall
patterns, crops not being able to grow and from changing the amount of sunlight
reaching the earth’s surface. Indeed, a study in 2014 found that all geo-engineering
proposals that block the sun’s rays are likely to affect rainfall and could negatively
impact billions of people due to changes in rainfall pattern such as with the Indian
monsoon (Shukman, 2014). Furthermore, stratospheric sulphur aerosols, as is known
from studying volcanic eruptions, destroy the ozone layer and can cause major risks
to humans including diseases such as cancers.
An important current project is the UK’s SPICE project (Stratospheric Particle
Injection for Climate Engineering), which is investigating the effectiveness of Solar
Radiation Management (SRM) to offset the effects of greenhouse gas increases by
causing the Earth to reflect more radiation from the Sun. The project is rightly consid-
ered just as a short-term solution to buy us some time for reducing our emissions
and tackling the root problems behind global climate change and its impacts. Since
unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced and ultimately reversed, other material
impacts from carbon emissions will continue to grow such as in terms of ocean acid-
ification. There is also the risk that an abrupt termination of stratospheric sulphur
injections could result in rapid warming.
It is also important to note that volcanic eruptions can be used as a useful partial
indicator but that there are important potential differences between geo-engineering
and volcanos and hence impacts may differ. As one example, anthropogenic sulphur
particles would be much smaller than those from volcanic eruptions and consequently
it is uncertain how the sulphur would interact with the atmosphere (Crutzen, 2006).
Other geo-engineering proposals include injecting highly reflective nanoparticles
in the atmosphere or by adding other materials such as soot particles (Keith, 2000).
However, soot is carcinogenic. In summing up though, all geo-engineering solutions
should be viewed as short-term solutions as they fail to deal with the basic problem
of too much atmospheric carbon.
32 Carbon Removal Solutions
A report by the American Academies in 2015 on CO2 removal noted that reducing
CO2 concentrations by 100 ppm (in order to return the atmospheric conditions close
to what they were before the start of the Industrial Revolution) would require the
removal of 1,800 billion tonnes of CO2 (480 billion tonnes of carbon) (National
Research Council, 2015). According to the IPCC, in order to avoid the worst impacts
of climate change, humanity needs to remove around 10 billion tonnes of carbon
dioxide from the air every year by mid-century (Rogelj et al., 2019). Removal
methods can be split into 2 main categories: biological and chemical solutions and
many of these systems involve reinforcing the Earth’s systems. A key problem faced
by all efforts to draw CO2 out of the atmosphere is that if successful, large amounts
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of CO2 will enter the atmosphere from the ocean as the systems move to equilibrium,
which would at least partially offset the impact of the intervention technology.
33 Biological Carbon Removal Technologies
Biological methods are based on the removal of carbon from the atmosphere or oceans
via photosynthesis, and then storing the captured carbon in a variety of ways—from
living forests to charcoal and plastics or locking it deep in the Earth’s crust. The
energy required for the biological processes is essentially free as it is derived from
photosynthesis, which in turn was provided by the sun’s energy. Though an important
advantage, it also means that the rate and volume of carbon that can be captured
through biological pathways are dictated by the process of photosynthesis, which is
highly reliable but relatively inefficient. For example, photosynthesis only uses 1%
of the available solar energy as opposed to solar PV, which is currently up to around
20% efficient.
Another important limitation is that the biosphere is already under great strain
due to extensive deforestation, pollution and species extinction. As a result of the
increasing strain upon it, the climate mitigation capacity of the biosphere is at
increasing risk of being compromised.
Clearly before any intervention, biological or chemical, a careful assessment is
required of not just the potential positive impacts but also of the negative impacts
of externalities. For example, planting tree monocultures has been linked to nega-
tive impacts such as being detrimental for biodiversity, disease and vulnerability
to extreme weather events. For example, as the world warms and extreme weather
events become more frequent and severe, areas of vegetation that are degraded and/or
impoverished in terms of native biodiversity will be at increased risk. Hence, the
impacts of global warming should be modelled down to the local level in order to
identify the areas that should be set aside for reforestation or rewilding.
34 Afforestation
Trees, indeed, all plants, grow by taking in CO2 and around half of their dry weight
is derived from atmospheric carbon. As climate change gathers pace in the coming
decades, rates of carbon accumulation will change. However, whilst some forests will
grow more slowly or even die, others will probably grow faster due to the fertilization
effect of more carbon dioxide in the air, an existing phenomenon sometimes called
global greening.
Due to rampant deforestation in recent decades, there is clear scope for potential
carbon sequestration through restoration. Indeed, a recent study indicated that only
27% of global deforestation over the period 2001–2015 had resulted from deforesta-
tion for permanent land use change (the rest being due to forest fires or temporary
land change) (Curtis et al., 2018).
Afforestation can play an important role in contributing to climate change but as
context, planting trees every year over an area the size of Greece (around 150,000
km2 ) over a 50-year time period would allow us to remove around 1 billion tonnes
of carbon. Furthermore, the trees must survive for at least 100 years for the carbon
to stay out of the atmosphere.
Though reforestation may bring other benefits such as being linked to ecotourism,
improvements in water catchment protection and reduced erosion, there are also other
potential side effects. Studies have highlighted the risk of increased global warming
in certain areas due to an increase in the earth’s albedo due to widescale tree planting
at scale. This is because trees absorb more heat energy than other surfaces such as
paler grasses (Oregon, 2011). As a result, the increased heat absorption at the surface
may offset, at least partially, the increased carbon drawdown from the trees.
When it comes to tackling climate change it is clear there is a wide range of solu-
tions that are needed. Clearly, planting trees can play an important role. However,
it needs to be done as part of a well thought-out strategy and recent research
by Montague (2020) has made clear that in many cases it may be preferable to
let nature take its course and to promote rewilding as we’ll now discuss in the next
section.
35 Rewilding
Different to planned interventions such as afforestation is the concept of rewilding.

Rewilding is arguably an inspirational way of restoring wild nature that focuses on
allowing natural processes to reshape and enhance ecosystems so that we create
spaces where nature and people can thrive in harmony.
Across the world, there is growing recognition that the restoration of wild nature
is a critical, cost-effective, immediate way of tackling climate change, reversing
biodiversity decline, and providing many benefits such as protecting us from flooding
and coastal erosion, reducing wildfire risk, enhancing human health and wellbeing
and driving economic growth. By enhancing the functionality of natural ecosystems,
rewilding can also reduce the risk of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19.
Advocates of rewilding maintain that active tree planting is only needed where
seeds are completely missing, and tree species cannot come back on their own. In
such cases it should be done as natural as possible, providing new seed sources to
then stimulate natural regeneration.
A study by Cook-Patton et al. (2020) shows that the potential for natural forest
regrowth to absorb carbon from the atmosphere and fight climate change is far greater
than previously estimated (Conservation, 2020). The study shows that estimates of
the rate of carbon accumulation by natural forest regrowth are much higher than had
been previously estimated. The study showed that whilst there were huge variations
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for a wide range of reasons depending on factors such as climate and soils, natural
regeneration can capture more carbon more quickly and more securely than planta-
tions. The study is the most detailed attempt yet to map where forests could grow
back naturally, and to assess the potential of those forests to accumulate carbon.
The study identified up to 1.67 billion acres that could be set aside to allow trees to
regrow. This excludes land under cultivation or built on, along with existing valuable
ecosystems such as grasslands and boreal regions, where the warming effects of
dark forest canopy outweigh the cooling benefits of carbon take-up. Combining
the mapping and carbon accumulation data, the study estimates that natural forest
regrowth could capture in biomass and soils 73 billion tonnes of carbon between
now and 2050, making it the single largest natural climate solution.
In many parts of the world, forests have been expanding, linked in part to a global
trend of urbanization and depopulation of many rural areas. For example, estimates
suggest that some 6.7 million acres of Atlantic Forest in the USA have naturally
regenerated in this way since 1996 (Pearce, 2020). The Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest
has also expanded in recent years (Ibid). In Europe, forest cover was reported as 44%
in a 2009 study by the UK Government and studies have reported that the amount of
forest has been increasing since the mid-twentieth century (FAO 2011; EU Woodland
(2009)) due to land abandonment of many agricultural areas. Furthermore, this trend
is expected to continue over the next few decades (van Vuuren et al. 2006). In a study
of Poland, Slovakia and Ukraine, it was found that 16% of farmland was abandoned
in the 1990s with much of the land being recolonized naturally by forest (Kuemmerle
et al., 2008). Whilst in Russia, an area of former farmland around four times the size
of the UK has been recolonized by forests (Pearce, 2020).
Whilst much of the focus, and the preceding discussion, is on solutions with
forests, preserving and restoring other ecosystems is also extremely important for
tackling climate change as well as many other issues such as biodiversity loss. To
give just one example, wetlands are especially effective at capturing CO2 from the
atmosphere. Wetland plants grow fast and the oxygen-depleted conditions in many
wetlands are ideal for storing carbon. Unfortunately, the world’s wetlands, such
as mangroves and saltmarshes, have been severely degraded and many have been
converted to dry land for a range of land uses. Nevertheless, some degraded wetlands
could be restored through the amount of carbon that could be stored, the costs and
for how long remains highly uncertain.
36 Wood Chemistry
Before the oil industry became so dominant, many of its products were being gener-
ated from wood through the process of pyrolysis including a wide range of fuels,
solvents and dyes. Due to the climate crisis, however, there is now renewed focus
on wood chemistry and wood-derived products and companies around the world
are starting to experiment with this technology again. As an example, methanol,
used extensively as a transport fuel, can be obtained from food products such as
corn. However, when derived from first-generation biofuels like these, there is at
best a marginal carbon benefit over fossil fuels and they can even exacerbate other
negative externalities such as deforestation and poverty. However, methanol made
with second-generation technologies made possible with wood chemistry is under
development and would allow methanol to be derived from cellulose, which would
result in a much greater carbon benefit as tree farming requires fewer fossil fuels
than growing corn (Galebach et al., 2018).
In terms of tackling climate change, the most important wood chemistry product
concerns the production of biochar. Biochar is a relatively pure, mineralized form
of carbon made by heating any biomass without oxygen. All the cellulose, lignin
and other non-carbon materials gasify and are burned away. What remains is pure
carbon—40% of the carbon originally contained in the biomass. The process requires
little energy and is a carbon-negative technology as it allows for long-term storage
of carbon that was captured from the atmosphere by plants. Biochar can take many
forms, depending on a range of factors including what it is made from and the
temperature during production. Whilst some forms of biochar are beneficial for
certain soil types, other forms, especially those made at high temperatures can be
toxic.
At present, the biochar industry is mainly comprised of small businesses in Europe
and North America where biochar products are sold for local small-scale needs such
as gardening (Ibid). Barriers to entry include a lack of awareness and hence demand
for the product and access to financing. In addition, accurately estimating how much
carbon can be sequestered, and for how long, cannot yet be determined due to a
variety of factors such as the soil type the biochar is stored in.
Since the biochar will degrade over time, more biomass will be needed than the
carbon that can be sequestered from it. Although the rate of biochar degradation
will vary based on factors such as soil and moisture conditions, even under optimal
conditions only a part of the carbon fixed as biochar during the pyrolysis process will
be sequestered for more than a century. In short, though developments in biochar
technology have improved rapidly in the last few years, biochar is currently only a
marginal solution to climate change. In terms of potential downsides, it would be
important to only use biochar from existing agricultural land rather than to set aside
more land for growing biochar as this could exacerbate already major problems
such as deforestation and hunger. In addition, much of the ‘waste’ that could be
turned into biochar is already used on farms as animal feedstock, as fuel for stoves
or as a soil conditioner. Nevertheless, in the developing world more than 10 billion
tonnes of crop waste is burned annually in fields, releasing an estimated 11.2 billion
tonnes of CO2 e, into the atmosphere. Hence, if this waste could be converted into
biochar instead of burning it, potentially 3 tonnes CO2 would be removed from the
atmosphere for every tonne produced. The CO2 could then, for example, be added to
fields as a soil amendment so that the carbon would be permanently sequestered. In
short, biochar is currently a promising yet immature technology that warrants much
more investigation.
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37 Seaweed
Though at an early stage, the cultivation of seaweed offers potentially enormous

potential for decarbonization. Seaweed grows very fast and hence seaweed farms
could be used to absorb CO2 very efficiently and at a major scale. The seaweed
could be harvested and processed to generate methane for electricity production or
to replace natural gas with the remaining nutrients being recycled.
A study by N’Yeurt et al. (2012) estimated that growing seaweed could produce
12 billion tonnes per year of biomethane whilst storing 19 billion tonnes per year of
CO2 that result from biogas production. In addition, potentially another 34 billion
tonnes of CO2 could be captured if the CH4 is combusted to generate electricity.
Hence, theoretically, up to 53 billion tonnes of CO2 could be removed annually from
the atmosphere whilst also producing enough biomethane to replace all of today’s
needs in fossil fuel energy. These estimates are reported as being based on macro-
algal forests covering 9% of the world’s ocean surface, which would be similar to
an area of over 30 million km2 or over 3 times the size of the total land area of the
USA.
However, if the estimates for CO2 storage potential are accurate, just by itself
seaweed harvesting would have the potential to capture almost our entire current
level of global CO2 emissions. Additional benefits would include a large increase
in sustainable fish production, reduction in ocean acidification and increased ocean
primary productivity and biodiversity. The CO2 could potentially be stored in ocean
floor sediments as discussed further on in this chapter.
However, covering 9% of the world’s oceans with seaweed farms and then
processing the huge amounts of resulting product is far from possible based on
our current resources and capabilities. However, a lot of the technology required
to achieve seaweed harvesting at scale already exists though currently at a small
scale. For example, seaweed farming covers 200,000 acres just off the coast of China
Seaseed Site. In addition, essential methane digesters are a basic technology that are
already widespread in agricultural use for transforming waste and could easily be
used on floating factories.
38 Chemical Carbon Removal Technologies
Chemical methods use the weathering of rocks, naturally or artificially, to capture

carbon and then sequester the carbon. The chemical removal solutions, unlike the
biological methods above, all require energy from human energy systems, either via
electricity or fossil fuels. Hence, this is expensive and if renewable energy is not
used, it will also be adding to the problem (through fossil fuel combustion) that it is
trying to solve. Conversely, many of the chemical technologies offer the advantage
of not only storing the carbon securely but also of creating something useful for
humans in the process.
Over a billion tonnes of CO2 is already sequestered naturally every year through
rock weathering. In the ‘enhanced’ process, finely crushed basalt or dunite rock is
thinly spread on the ground where it absorbs CO2 at a faster rate with the potential for
absorbing, according to a recent study, a massive 95 billion tonnes of CO2 per year
(Strefler et al., 2018), which is around twice global emissions at present. The huge
downside is that dunite has traces of harmful minerals such as chromium and nickel.
Alternatively, basalt can be used, but this is currently a lot more expensive, though it
would have the added benefit of improving soil fertility by adding potassium (Ibid).
There are many potential chemical means of capturing and storing CO2 . For
example, by exposing silicate rocks to weathering, CO2 can be captured from the air
by accelerating the weathering process that occurs naturally in nature by breaking
large rocks into smaller pieces to increase their surface area and hence the rate of
weathering. Another solution uses olivine, a mineral widely available at depth in the
Earth’s crust, which is transformed by naturally occurring chemical reactions into
a variety of common rock types such as serpentinite. Olivine and serpentinite can
absorb CO2 over many years if they are ground into sand or soil that is exposed to air.
However, though it can contribute to carbon removal as one of a range of solutions,
huge amounts of rock would be required to sequester enough atmospheric carbon to
have a planetary level impact on CO2 levels. For example, it is estimated that up to
around 5 billion tonnes of rock would be required to sequester a billion tonnes of
carbon (Flannery, 2015).
Other rocks that can be used to capture CO2 include lime produced from carbonate
rocks such as limestone. However, lime production requires significant heat and huge
amounts of rock to sequester significant amounts of carbon and hence would also be
expensive. Another key challenge to overcome for enhanced weathering solutions
includes finding a use for the material created from the process.
39 Direct Air Capture (DAC)
Direct air capture involves capturing CO2 from the atmosphere, resulting in negative
emissions as the captured CO2 can be stored permanently in deep rock strata or used
in the production of products containing CO2 such as fuels, chemicals and building
materials. According to the (IEA 2020), there are currently 15 direct air capture
plants operating globally that in total capture more than 9,000 tCO2 /year, with a 1
million tCO2 /year capture plant in advanced development in the United States. The
IEA estimates that direct air capture could capture almost 10 million tCO2 /year by
2030 but that this would require several more large-scale demonstrations to refine
the technology and reduce costs of capture (Ibid).
The Swiss company, Climeworks, has developed a CO2 capture device that can
remove CO2 from the air. Climeworks’ technology includes CO2 collectors powered
solely by renewable energy or energy from waste. Air is drawn into the collector
with a fan and the carbon dioxide is captured on the surface of a filter material inside
the collectors. Once the filter material is full with carbon dioxide, the collector is
358 R. Betts
closed. The temperature is then increased, releasing a very pure CO2 stream that can
be a valuable commodity. Grey emissions are below 10%, meaning that out of 100
tonnes of carbon dioxide capture from the air, at least 90 tonnes are permanently
removed and only up to 10 tonnes are re-emitted. In November 2020, Climeworks
signed agreements with both Carbfix, carbon storage pioneers, and ON Power, the
Icelandic geothermal energy provider, to lay the foundation for a new plant that will
help scale-up carbon removal and storage in Iceland. Climeworks’ new plant will be
able to permanently remove 4,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide from the air per year.
Another firm, the Canadian firm Carbon Engineering, is focusing on capturing CO2
from the atmosphere for uses including converting it into carbon-neutral fuel using
renewable energy sources.
Prometheus Fuels, another new DAC company, is an American energy start-up
developing tools to filter atmospheric CO2 to produce commercially viable fuels
using renewable electricity sources. According to the company, the first commercial
fuel is due to be sold in California by the end of 2020.
40 Carbon-Negative Cements
Carbon-negative cements offer enormous potential as a carbon removal pathway for

a sector that currently contributes an estimated 5% of global GHG emissions IEA
(2009). At present most cement globally is produced by Portland cement, which
is highly carbon-intensive since around 1 tonne of CO2 is generated per tonne of
cement.
Numerous ways of reducing emissions from cement manufacturing are being
investigated such as using fly ash in the cement-making process though as it is a
by-product from the highly carbon-intensive process of coal combustion, it does not
seem viable as a decarbonization solution.
Much more promising though are methods that actually absorb and sequester
carbon over long periods of time. For example, the US company Solidia Technologies
extracts CO2 from industrial waste and incorporates it into the cement. The company
claims its cement can be used to produce superior, sustainable building materials
that are cheaper than conventional Portland cement and that the technology has the
potential to eliminate a minimum of 1.5 billion tonnes of carbon per year.5
Given that the cement industry is a major contributor to GHG emissions globally,
carbon-negative cements could contribute meaningfully to global decarbonization
goals if this technology could be incorporated at scale in new build. However, as
an immature technology it is likely there would be resistance initially from industry
before it was used to replace tried and tested conventional cement products.
5 https://www.solidiatech.com/Solidia® – Making Sustainability Business As UsualSM (solidi-

atech.com).
41 Carbon-Negative Plastics
Another use for CO2 captured from the air is for storing in carbon-negative plastics.
For example, Newlight Technologies in California, has invented and commercialized
a carbon capture technology based on mixing air with methane and enzymes to form
their carbon-negative product AirCarbon Newlight. AirCarbon can be used instead
of oil to produce a range of plastics such as used in computer packaging and chairs
and according to the company is already competitive with oil-based plastics in terms
of both performance and price. Applications to date have included automotive parts
and chairs.
In recent decades the science of biomimicry has become increasingly important
and, in this field, pioneering companies are developing systems that some organisms,
including some of the most primitive life forms, do naturally. For example, in a
famous experiment in 1953, the American chemists Miller and Urey managed to
create basic life forms in a laboratory in what they hypothesized might have been
the way life started in the universe. Many years later, their experiment has inspired
a new area of focus in terms of tackling climate change. By using water enriched
with CO2 , rather than a mix of gases, through which to pass a current, scientists
have been able to create long-chain hydrocarbons, the building blocks of fossil fuels
(Flannery, 2015). Recently, the German company, Sunfire, has announced it has
discovered a way of creating petrol and other fuels from water and CO2 6 . Hence,
this could offer the potential to create oil and other hydrocarbons from CO2 , water
and electricity and hence without any emissions during the production phase. Their
process involves producing steam and then treating it to remove the oxygen from
the H2 O. The remaining hydrogen is then combined with CO2 creating long-chain
hydrocarbons.
Another innovative approach is being pioneered by Siemens where studies are
looking at how to replicate photosynthesis (Schroder, 2014). Being able to replicate
photosynthesis would allow many valuable materials to be created using only atmo-
spheric CO2 and water. Due to the complexity of the process, the Siemens team has
focused on transforming CO2 into complex hydrocarbons using electricity. The hope
is that this process will be able to produce various chemicals such as ethylene and
various alcohols. Potentially excess renewable electricity generation could be input
into photosynthesis modules in order to produce valuable chemicals, which would
help to reduce demand for petroleum and hence to reduce GHG emissions.
42 New Techniques for CCS
Earlier in this chapter, CCS technologies were discussed that focused on how carbon
emissions could potentially be stored in engineering structures connected to fossil
6 Sunfire. https://www.sunfire.de/en/
360 R. Betts
fuel plants. In addition, however, there has been some interesting, potentially ground-
breaking, research that has focused on how anthropogenic carbon emissions could
be stored at scale in planetary systems such as the ocean sea floor and the Antarctic
ice caps. It is to these exciting new areas of research that we now turn.
43 Storage of CO2 in the Ocean Crust
Recent studies by climatologists and geologists have also highlighted new potential
for using CCS at scale whereby under the right conditions, CO2 can be stored in
either liquid or solid form. For example, a potential approach is for CO2 to be stored
in parts of the ocean crust whereby the pressure of the ocean waters above can be used
to maintain the gas in liquid form or to lock it into the rock. Laboratory analyses
have shown that if CO2 is stored in marine sediments under at least 3,000 m of
water, it stays in liquid form due to the enormous pressure of the overlying water
column (Tohidi et al., 2010). Natural chemical processes in the water of the ocean
sediments will then convert the liquid CO2 into a solid as stable hydrates over time.
CO2 is prevented by the enormous pressure of the water above from rising towards
the sediment surface, meaning that storage is stable and once the CO2 has become
a hydrate, it is locked into the rock permanently. Though not all ocean areas deeper
than 3,000 m could be used for CO2 storage, the potential is considered huge. For
example, scientists estimate that the total CO2 storage capacity within just the 200-
mile economic zone of the US coastline is enormous and capable of storing thousands
of years of current US CO2 emissions Ibid.
Further research is needed but CO2 storage in deep water marine sediments is
considered one of the most promising solutions that could contribute significantly to
emissions reduction globally.
44 Storage of CO2 in the Antarctic Ice Cap
Another proposal is the potential to capture and store CO2 in the Antarctic Ice Cap
in a series of refrigeration chambers (Agee et al., 2013). CO2 freezes at –78.5°C at
sea level and the average temperature over the interior of the Antarctic ice cap is
–57°C. Hence, extra cooling of around –20°C or so would be required to cause CO2
to fall out of the air and start to accumulate as snow (Flannery, 2015). The scientists
estimate that air cooled with liquid nitrogen to below CO2 ’s freezing point would
cause the precipitation of around 40 cm of CO2 snow per day. The accumulated CO2
could be stored in pits in the Antarctic ice and then covered with ice and snow to
prevent its loss through sublimation on exposure to slightly warmer air. Agee et al.
(2013). estimate that 446 refrigeration chambers could be powered by 16 1,200-
megawatt wind farms in order to capture and store 1 billion tonnes of CO2 per
year (a reduction of 0.5 ppmv). Following the success of a prototype system in the
Antarctic, installation of all 446 plants for CO2 snow deposition and storage would
then be needed. The existing global Antarctic treaty provides the basis for scientific
cooperation and international governance and in sum this is a solution that merits
further consideration.
In terms of potential downsides, a potential risk is of CO2 leakage from a warming
ice cap. Climate modelling could be used to assess this risk though it is considered
extremely unlikely even on a timescale of a thousand years and would be likely to
materialize only in the event of a major global climate crisis. Though hard to estimate,
it is likely that it would be extremely expensive to install refrigeration chambers on
the Antarctic and that the project may not be feasible for several decades until the
technologies improve and the costs come down significantly.
45 Digital Technology
Another major global trend is clearly in terms of the rapid development and uptake
of new technologies related to areas such as digitalization, artificial intelligence
and machine learning. Indeed, connectivity will be a key enabler for exponential
technologies, which have huge potential for helping us to tackle climate change.
Exponential technology has 2 main components:
(1) It’s exponential, meaning that it doubles in capability or performance very
quickly. Alternatively, its costs halve.
(2) It is a technology that is now at the point where its price-performance makes
it possible to be incorporated into solving today’s business problems in ways
that were not previously possible due to higher costs. For example, previously
due to high costs, drones were only financially viable in certain applications
such as for military use. Due to plummeting costs in recent years, drones are
now being used in a wide range of applications, including for helping to tackle
climate change, as explained below.
An example of an exponential technology is the computer as the power of
computer chips has doubled every 2 years or so since the middle of the last century.
5G is another exponential technology, which has data speeds 10 to 100 times faster
than 4G. Ericsson estimates that the number of cellular connections will reach 4.1
billion by 2024 in its latest Mobility Report (Ericcson, 2020). With sensors in facto-
ries, smart cities and in our homes, 5G combined with AI has the potential to make
our societies and economies radically more efficient and sustainable (Ekholm and
Rockstroem, 2019).
Another breakthrough can be expected with electric and driverless vehicles. 5G
is a crucial technology for safety, efficiency and reliability in this area. Driverless
vehicles will accelerate a shift in the traditional business model of vehicle ownership
towards mobility and transportation as a service. This means that fewer people will
own a car but instead will order shared rides from driverless electric vehicles or catch
a driverless bus.
362 R. Betts
Provided there is a robust policy framework and effective leadership, digital expo-
nential technologies have the potential to play a major role in helping us to accelerate
decarbonization efforts and the move towards a circular and lean economy.
The following section includes a summary of some of these technologies and
examples of their application in helping to tackle climate change. The World
Economic Forum estimated in 2019 that new digital technologies like Internet of
Things (IoT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) could help us cut GHG emissions glob-
ally by 15% or one-third of the 50% reduction required by 2030 for the world to
be on track for reaching net zero by mid-century. Digital technologies have huge
potential for a wide range of uses including for solutions in energy, manufacturing,
agriculture and land use, buildings, services, transportation and traffic management
Ibid.
46 Drones
Drones, also known as UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles), can provide real-time
precise data regarding changes in the earth’s surface. They can also provide data
from places that would be inaccessible or dangerous for humans to access, hence
helping to improve safety. Examples of the applications of drones for tackling climate
change and connected environmental challenges will now follow. For example, UK
company Dendra plans to plant 500 billion trees by 2060 by using drones and AI.
Dendra estimates its technology would enable governments to restore forests 150
times faster than planting by hand, and up to 10 times cheaper, which is of the scale
needed to help halt and start to reverse the accelerating climate and biodiversity crises
(Whiting, 2019). WWF estimates that we are currently losing more than 75,000
square kilometres of forests a year, including the carbon capture potential of those
trees and that we need to be planting billions of trees annually.
Drones can also be used to measure surface reflectivity in order to show how much
solar energy a landscape reflects. This can be useful for identifying areas suitable for
tree planting where the change in surface cover from afforestation will not result in
an increased albedo and hence potentially increased warming that would negate the
carbon uptake from afforestation. They can also be used to pinpoint deforestation and
areas of illegal logging, allowing law enforcement agencies to take swift action and
hence restrict further loss and damage. They can also be used for assessing the most
suitable locations for constructing new cleantech such as solar or wind; underwater
uses to help monitor impacts of global warming on ocean ecosystems and also for
monitoring changes in air quality.
47 Geospatial Technology
Geospatial technology, which give us an understanding of earth systems at a global

scale, have enormous potential for tackling climate change. They can be used to map
historical weather trends as well as future projections. They can be used to model land
use against the GHG emissions from that area in order to identify carbon hotspots.
48 Internet of Things (IoT)
Internet of Things (IoT) technology can be used for real-time measurements of the
planet. For example, they can be used to assess indirect effects of climate change
such as indicated by changes in river levels, wind speed and land erosion. At the
building level, sensors can be used to improve energy efficiency.
49 Conclusion
The threats from the climate and interconnected biodiversity crises are accelerating
but so too are the opportunities. The tools to avoid a climate disaster now exist
though many areas need more research and even more support in terms of deployment
and upscaling. Another key issue is how to raise the finance and the extra capital
expenditure required to install and maintain sustainable technologies. This clearly
requires new sustainable financing mechanisms and the market for these is growing
quickly. Indeed, since the first green bonds were launched in 2007 there has been a
rapid increase in the size of the market for green financing and, as an example, up to
2019 there had been cumulative issuance of green bonds of USD 754 billion Climate
Bonds (2019). Green loans have also been growing rapidly with 98% growth and 39
new green loans in 2019 Climate Bond (2020). The market for sustainable financial
products is set to continue its rapid growth and, as it becomes more mature, there
will be increased diversification, as we are already starting to see due to the C-19
pandemic, which has created demand for a range of social and pandemic financial
instruments. There will also be increased standardization and scientific convergence
and increased focus on sustainable financing solutions for transitioning brown sectors
such as aviation, steel and cement.
Due to the accelerating climate and biodiversity crises, more negative shocks such
as COVID-19 can be expected. However, their severity and frequency depend on our
collective response to the current C-19 crisis and over the next few years. The time to
act on the climate and biodiversity crises is now and for accelerating the transition to a
sustainable, inclusive, circular and regenerative economy. Hence, though far more is
needed, the recent acceleration in momentum towards decarbonization and cleantech
has been encouraging. Indeed, at the time of writing in early 2021, China, the US, the
364 R. Betts
EU, UK, Canada, Japan, South Korea and South Africa plus many smaller nations
that already collectively cover around 70% of the global economy, over half the
world’s emissions and over 75% of global fossil fuel export markets have announced
net zero goals for 2050 or shortly thereafter, with many of these already enshrined in
law. It is likely that this momentum will lead to more incentive and pressure on other
countries to rapidly follow suit and commit to rapid net zero decarbonization. Rapid,
urgent action really is needed and we all have a role to play. What we collectively
do, or do not do, in the next few years will determine the fate of humanity and life on
this planet for the coming decades and centuries. As the famous Roman Philosopher
Emperor, Marcus Aurelius, is attributed with having once said: ‘Quod in vita facimus,
in aeternum resonat’ What we do in life echoes in eternity.
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Perspectives of Climate Change
Atefeh Ahmadi Dehrashid , Naser Valizadeh ,

Mohammad Hossein Gholizadeh , Hossein Ahmadi Dehrashid ,
and Bahram Nasrollahizadeh
Abstract Climate change is one of the most severe issues the world is facing today,
and it has placed humanity in a challenging position. In addition to causing irre-
versible harm to natural and human systems, climate change raises sea levels and
temperatures, expands droughts, increases food insecurity, causes rain oscillations,
and releases external contaminants into the environment. However, there are currently
no effective mitigation mechanisms to cope with the implications of this global
problem. In this context, this chapter aims to investigate and introduce the global
climate change mitigation viewpoints. According to research, the only realistic and
scientific strategy to mitigate this critical problem may be summarised as worldwide
efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible. It is recommended that
annual meetings be organised to examine the current situation, anticipate the future,
converge viewpoints, and encourage underdeveloped and emerging nations to cut
greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. The efficient use of energy,
clean and renewable fuels instead of fossil fuels, and carbon emissions reduction are
critical in lowering a country’s carbon emissions. Many governments aim to shift
as much of this obligation as possible to other countries to reduce their burden. In
exchange, make use of the prospects for economic and industrial growth that may
be achieved via low-cost fossil fuels. Consequently, it is proposed that each nation’s
contribution to greenhouse gas emissions is accurately calculated and that duties be
established following the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions share.
A. Ahmadi Dehrashid · B. Nasrollahizadeh

Department of Climatology, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran
N. Valizadeh (B)
Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, School of Agriculture, Shiraz University,
Shiraz, Iran
M. H. Gholizadeh
Department of Climatology, College of Natural Resource, Kurdistan University, Sanandaj, Iran
H. Ahmadi Dehrashid
Geography and Rural Planning, College of Geography, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran
370 A. Ahmadi Dehrashid et al.
Keywords Climate change · Consequences · Vulnerability · Climatic phenomena
1 Introduction
A growing number of scientists feel that environmental issues result from shifting
human attitudes and the widespread practice of consumerism. On the other hand,
others believe that it is the result of natural climate change that is unavoidable.
Climate change has a variety of causes, both natural and artificial; while natural
causes include factors such as earth rotation, continent movement, volcanic erup-
tions, and ocean water currents, man-made causes include factors such as popu-
lation growth, urban development, industrial growth, deforestation, and increasing
carbon footprints. In addition to the natural ecosystems, climate change has had
an impact on human ecosystems. The magnitude of these consequences has been
so tremendous that geoscientists have hypothesised a new geological epoch known
as the Anthropocene (a period that marked the beginning of the significant effects
of human activities on the ecosystems and geological structure of the planet) has
begun. A few examples of evidence from this current geological period are the
loss of the ozone layer, the devastation of marine reefs, species extinction, climate
change, and global warming, among other things. The global climate change land-
scape has become so important that in addition to the world’s scientific centres, the
United Nations has established a particular working group called the Intergovern-
mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to monitor and evaluate it. When it comes
to climate change and its consequences throughout the world, it is critical to perform
climate change research that will help us be better equipped to adapt to climate
change and decrease its potential damage. The importance of climate change has
grown in recent years due to the economic, social, and financial ramifications that
it entails. The adverse effects of climate change can be so severe to human beings
that it is regarded as one of the top ten most severe risks to human existence in
the twenty-first century by the United Nations. According to the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change and its consequences will continue
until the end of the twenty-first century unless all greenhouse gases are eliminated
now (IPCC 2007).
2 Global Climate Change as a Global Concern
The global climate is changing as a result of rising amounts of greenhouse gases

in the environment. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
global temperatures have risen by around 0.3–0.6 °C, with the same forecast to climb
to 3.5 °C by 2100. (Fig. 1).
According to the IPCC (2013) studies on the impact of climate change on different
continents in the next decades, the following are the findings:
Perspectives of Climate Change 371
Fig. 1 The trend of global temperature increase in different periods (IPCC 2013)
• Severe drought will affect parts of Africa, with severe effects on household liveli-
hoods and food security on a regional and national scale. Other portions of Africa
will be devastated by destructive floods and water-borne illnesses, such as malaria
and other infectious diseases, which will raise the death rate in those areas.
• Droughts, food and water shortages, and other natural disasters will become
increasingly common throughout Asia. Flooding will occur in coastal regions
due to increasing sea levels in some locations, resulting in damage to infrastruc-
ture and lives. It is a significant threat to the hundreds of millions of people who
live along the Indian and Pacific Oceans coasts.
• Europe will be hit by disastrous floods, increasing sea levels, coastline erosion, and
restricted availability of potable water, particularly in the southern hemisphere.
Extreme heat will also hurt human health, grain production efficiency, and the
quality of the air.
• Flooding, coral bleaching, and changes in the composition of coral reefs in the
oceans are just a few of the effects of climate change that will significantly
influence Australia’s numerous industries and sectors. As sea levels rise in the
Pacific and Indian Oceans, certain islands will perish, and others may become
uninhabitable due to rising sea levels.
• In the semi-arid parts of Central America, there will be a reduction in the avail-
ability of potable water. In addition, floods and landslides will affect urban and
rural regions at low elevations, reducing the amount and quality of food available.
• Increased storms, tornadoes, and floods (particularly in the river and coastal areas)
are among the climate change consequences in North America that will risk public
health and cause social systems to be disrupted. Drought conditions in the western
United States are becoming increasingly severe, resulting in more frequent fires,
deterioration of ecological integrity, and increased human mortality (IPCC 2013).
• There will be a reduction in marine biodiversity in the following years, and ocean
acidification will accelerate this trend. Therefore, the ecological reversibility of
coastal habitats will be diminished. The livelihoods of fishing-dependent commu-
nities would be severely harmed as a result of this. Table 1 summarised the future
concerns about climate change concerning the different temperature values (Stern
2007).
Significant increase in the temperature and uneven distribution of precipitation
are the most important features of global climate change that are limiting factors for
sustainable development (Wang et al. 2015). The Earth’s atmosphere is one of the
shared global resources that individuals and businesses are responsible for protecting.
Environmental laws in many nations do not place restrictions on the discharge of local
and regional pollutants. Of course, it should not be forgotten that the recurring and
negative repercussions of local and regional pollutants have been decreased to some
extent due to the adoption and execution of mitigation initiatives. Until recently,
however, there were few regulatory measures to reduce carbon dioxide emissions (as
the main greenhouse gas). This pollutant has no immediate negative influence on the
environment; but the buildup of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere will have a considerable impact on world temperatures and climates, but
the magnitude and timing of these effects are still up in the air.
Given that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are continually accumu-
lating on the Earth’s surface, merely stabilising the release of these gases will not fix
the problem immediately. For decades or even centuries, greenhouse gases persist in
the Earth’s atmosphere and continue to impact the temperature of the entire planet
long after they are released into the sky. The only way to prevent greenhouse gases
from continuing to accumulate in the Earth’s atmosphere is to cut their emissions
drastically. As a result, the amount of these released gases must be consistent with
the Earth’s absorption capacity. According to current estimates, human activity is
responsible for somewhere between 20 and 50% of carbon dioxide emissions world-
wide. It indicates that emissions from human activities must be decreased by at least
50% to 80% to keep up with the Earth’s absorption capacity. To address global climate
change, national and international policies must be developed that consider a wide
variety of scientific, economic, and social challenges (Word Bank 2010). In light of
the severity of climate change’s consequences, it is in everyone’s best interests to cut
greenhouse gas emissions. It will not be enough for firms, communities, and nations
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions if there is no consensus or law on the subject. As
a result, climate change may be regarded as a global concern from the perspective of
the common good, which necessitates collective action. Because this is a worldwide
problem, only a strong international agreement that obligates governments to act on
Table 1 Concerns about climate change concerning the different temperature values
Type of 1 °C 2 °C 3 °C 4 °C 5 °C
impact
Water Disappearance 20–30% Risk of water 30–50% The
resources of small reduction in scarcity for 1 reduction in disappearance
icebergs in the potential to 4 billion potential of large
Andes region drinking water people and drinking water icebergs in the
and reducing resources in severe resources in Himalayas and
access to some areas droughts in South Africa damage to a
drinking water (South Africa southern and quarter of
for 50 million and Europe Mediterranean China’s
people Mediterranean countries population
countries)
Food and Relative 5–10% Risk of 15–35% Increasing the
agriculture increase of reduction in starvation for reduction in acidity of the
agricultural grain 150-550 agricultural oceans will
products in production in million production in reduce fish
different tropical Africa people Africa and stocks
regions around the complete
world destruction of
agricultural
products in
some other
regions
Human Every year, at In Africa, Every year, More than 80 Increasing
health least 300,000 30–30 million 1.3 million million people diseases and
people pass people are people pass in Africa are at inability of
away because exposed to away due to risk for health care
of climate malaria malnutrition malaria services to
change-related respond
diseases. Also,
mortality is
reduced at
high altitudes
Coastal Increased More than 10 More than More than 300 Rising sea
areas damage caused million people 170 million million people levels threaten
by coastal will be people will will be megacities
floods exposed to be exposed to exposed to such as New
coastal floods coastal floods coastal floods York, Tokyo,
and London
Ecosystems At least 10% 4–15% of the 20–50% of Half of the Great
of terrestrial species will the species tundra extinctions
species are in become extinct become landscapes of around the
danger of extinct and the Arctic and world
extinction and the Amazon coral reefs will
the risk of fire forests are be destroyed
increases destroyed
public goods can prevent significant environmental effects from occurring (Karimi
et al. 2021).
3 Options and Opportunities for Climate Change

Mitigation and Adaptation in the Agriculture Sector
Climate change has had several negative consequences for several productive sectors,
including agriculture; but, if the available possibilities and mitigation strategies
are appropriately utilised, the resulting harm will be very little. Several mitigation
measures are available for the agricultural sector, including farm management, animal
management, natural resource management (soil and water), land-use modification,
the use of renewable energy, and the most efficient use of energy resources in agri-
cultural activities. According to Frelih-Larsen et al. (2014) and Underwood et al.
(2013), the following are the broad mitigation approaches for lowering emissions in
the international agriculture sector:
• N2 O emissions from agricultural soils and drainage should be prevented or
reduced;
• Storage, processing, and use of chemical fertilisers should be reduced;
• Livestock sector is one of the primary producers of greenhouse gases such as
CH4 in the world, so proper livestock management practices should be followed
to reduce their emission.
• Proper land and soil management to reduce CO2 emissions.
• The machines which consume higher fossil fuels and increase CO2 emissions
should be appropriately optimised.
• The process of fertiliser production should be rationalised with environmental
agriculture.
It should also be mentioned that there is no one-size-fits-all option for reducing

emissions. However, a mix of these mitigation options can be employed in different
sectors contributing to the gas emission.
As previously stated, the earth’s climate became out of balance over the twentieth
century, increasing global temperature (Dracup and Vicuma 2005). Droughts, floods,
, heatwaves, and global warming are just a few of the consequences of climate
change that have put the world in a state of emergency. Various places of the world
experience different changes in temperature and precipitation, which do not always
follow the same pattern (Clark et al. 2000). Climate fluctuation has had a significant
impact on people’s lives in the past. On the other hand, humans have contributed
to climate change in the modern era through their actions. It has emerged as one of
humanity’s most pressing problems in the twenty-first century, as well as a possible
threat to both natural and man-made surroundings (Jones 1998). The worldwide
average temperature has grown by around 0.74 °C in the last 100 years, a significant
rise. The winter’s low temperature has increased at a greater rate than the maximum
temperature of the summer (IPCC 2013). Evidence suggests that human activities
have a greater impact on precipitation changes than rising temperatures (Liu et al.
2019). Precipitation has increased at higher latitudes and decreased at lower latitudes
in general, while precipitation variability has risen practically everywhere (Asseng
et al. 2015) and is increasing globally.
The IPCC report anticipates and warns of an increase in climatic and meteoro-
logical phenomena, such as droughts, floods, cyclones, and heatwaves, which can
have serious consequences for natural ecosystems and human systems throughout
the world (Tambo 2016). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
has projected that climate change through 2040 (Feng and Fu 2013) will have a
considerable influence on climate change resulting from rising greenhouse gas emis-
sions and increasing industrial activity. Every year, around 40,000 million tonnes of
carbon dioxide are released into the atmosphere due to industrial and agricultural
processes. If the current trend continues, it is estimated that by 2040, this quantity
would increase to 60,000 million tonnes. High greenhouse gas concentrations and
rising global temperatures are expected as a result of this development. Furthermore,
it is predicted that the Earth’s temperature would climb by 3.5 °C by 2100 (Fig. 2).
From 1950 to 1970, the temperature decreased, and from 1970 until now, it has
experienced an increasing trend. On average, global temperature has risen by one
degree since 1950, which is more pronounced in European countries, especially
southern Europe and the Mediterranean countries such as Italy, Spain, Greece, and
southern France (Mohaqeq Damad 2000). Based on these climate model simulations,
the average rainfall in the whole planet is expected to change significantly concerning
space and time. The simulations also show that the number of storms and heavy rains
will increase. Another consequence of rising global temperatures is the thawing of
polar ice caps. This process will cause water levels to rise to 15 m in some areas such
Fig. 2 Global surface temperature relative 1880–2020

as the Atlantic Ocean, especially off the coast of Europe (Iran Meteorological Orga-
nization 2017). In addition to submerging ports and destroying naval facilities, this
advance of ocean water will cause saline water to flow into coastal rivers and even
disrupt these countries’ drinking water supply system. It is also argued that most
of the world’s freshwater wetlands may turn into saline wetlands. Such a change
could severely affect the earth’s natural environment. Another model states that the
increase in billions of cubic metres of cold water caused by melting ice and floating
pieces of polar ice will cause the earth’s temperature to drop dramatically in a short
period. Another pessimistic model predicts rising ocean water and floating chunks of
polar ice, increasing pressure on ocean floor fissures. These events will move conti-
nental plates, create earthquakes, and lead to the infiltration of molten material into
the ocean floor. The outcome of all these events will be the “instability of the earth”,
and under such circumstances, human life will be in grave danger. These changes
will profoundly affect freshwater resources, coastal areas, biodiversity, forests and
pastures, and even agricultural production (Yazdi 2018).
4 Climate Change Impacts
The importance of climate change has grown in recent years as a result of the
economic, social, and financial ramifications that it entails. The negative conse-
quences of this phenomenon on human beings are so terrible that it has risen to
the top of the list of the ten most dangerous human variables (which also include
poverty, nuclear weapons, food shortages, and other issues) in the twenty-first
century. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
climate change will continue by the end of the twenty-first century due to the 150-
year persistence of carbon in the atmosphere. So the most important goal for the
scientific community dealing with this phenomenon is to examine the implications
of climate change on many elements of human existence and to develop comparable
strategies for coping with these bad repercussions in the future (IPCC 2007). The
major impacts of climate change are as follows.
4.1 Increasing Sea Level
Rising sea level is one of the most critical impacts of climate change, which occurs
through increasing temperatures and melting glaciers and Earth’s icy surfaces. Rising
sea levels, even mild ones, lead to coastal erosion, submergence of the lands,
increasing land and sea storms, salinisation of freshwater, and disappearance of coral
reefs and sandy beaches. Therefore, it can pose a new threat to human life, species
survival, agricultural land, facilities, and infrastructure (transport system, roads,
piping systems, factories, buildings, and airports) (Pellinga and Uittob 2001). Coastal
floods, coastlines’ erosion, freshwater resources pollution, wetlands’ flooding, and
rising salinity of deltas are some of the actual issues that occur even with low sea
level rises (Akhavan-Kazemi et al. 2019; Atalay 2014; Sweet et al. 2014).
4.2 Increasing Air Temperature
Investigations reveal that climate change has been the focus of various researchers
over the past few decades, and many theories have been put forward about their
origins, factors, trends, predictions, and impacts. Global warming due to human-
induced activities is one of the leading environmental issues that has grabbed most
scientific and political circles around the world in the last decade. Although indus-
trialisation has brought progress, prosperity, comfort, and convenience to human
beings, it has not achieved a global environment’s glorious achievement. In other
words, industrialisation has become a significant factor in destroying and disrupting
the Earth. One of the influential factors in climate change is the increase in green-
house gases (carbon dioxide, methane, etc.) due to human activities after coun-
tries’ industrialisation (Jones and Warner 2016; Midgley et al. 2003; Park et al.
2017). According to IPCC, most global warming from the mid-twentieth century
has been rooted in human-made greenhouse gases. Global warming could lead to the
melting of glaciers and icy surfaces in the North and South Poles. Forecasts suggest
that by 2030, all Arctic glaciers and by 2100, all mountains and Antarctic ice sheets
will melt (Serreze et al. 2007). This will increase the air temperature as much as
possible.
4.3 Development of Droughts and Food Insecurity
Drought is a decrease in rainfall compared to its long-term average. It causes an imbal-

ance in water and water shortages, plant destruction, reduced water flow intensity,
and surface water depth. This happens when the surface evaporation and water evap-
oration from plants are higher than usual within a certain period. Drought is the most
severe problem for agriculture worldwide, and to combat this phenomenon, fertilising
the clouds is a valuable but short-term method. In recent decades, drought has been
more frequent among the natural disasters that have affected human life. Climate
change will have adverse impacts on food resources and products that will lead to
a sudden and sharp rise in prices of basic products and will substantially lead to
political and economic turmoils (Hanjra 2010). Thus, climate change and its impacts
on human food security have become an important issue (Fanta 2003).
Further, local households may face more restrictions on access to food. In other
words, poor and vulnerable people, especially in developing countries, will suffer
more from food insecurity than other groups (Devereux and Maxwell 2001). Climate
change and its rebound impact on food security are already increasingly exacerbating
in parts of the world. For instance, Africa and South Asia are known as the most
vulnerable areas in terms of food security—a phenomenon defined as the physical

and economic access of all individuals to nutritious and adequate food at any time and
place; so that they can satisfy their nutritional needs to continue living a healthy and
active life (FAO 2008). Climate change models show that the temperature and rainfall
of all regions will be disrupted in the future, and as a result, agricultural production
and food security will get affected. Also, the supply of meat and livestock products
will be affected. Studies show that the agricultural productivity index will decline
from 0.21 to 0.09 shortly (Liliana 2005). Global food reports (WFP 2016) show
that agricultural productivity is slower than global population growth. Reports of
the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO 2011) show that the climate might
affect the production and pattern of foods. Climatic events such as drought can
endanger the livelihoods of rural areas, as rural areas in Asia are suffering from
poverty (Skoufias et al. 2011). Combining these events ultimately leads to natural
and human challenges, growing tensions, and exacerbating migration (Laczko and
Aghazaman 2009).
4.4 Precipitation Changes
Climate change can disrupt rainfall patterns, and the frequently heavy rainfalls in
the Northern Hemisphere (including North America, Northern Europe, and North
and Central Asia) prove this claim. Rainfall is declining in most tropical, arid, and
semi-arid regions of the world (the Mediterranean basin, South and West Africa, and
northeastern Brazil) (IPCC 2007c). North Africa today is severely affected by climate
change and its temperature and precipitation consequences. In recent decades, the
global occurrence of precipitation has decreased by 20–30% in winter and about
40% in summer, with this problem as more severe and deadly in the western parts
(Christiansen et al. 2007). In this regard, a particular concern in the Middle East is
related to Egypt, with the depletion of the Nile River due to the decreased rainfall will
severely affect agriculture. This problem will increase pressures on the population
when combined with a rise in temperature, especially in warmer months. Similarly, in
Russia’s case, the melting of Arctic glaciers, in the long run, will extensively destroy
the infrastructures in coastal areas. Furthermore, the unprecedented hail (more than
20 cm in diameter) that caused massive damage in the United States in 2010 is one
more example of the rainfall disorders (IPCC 2007c) due to climate change.
4.5 Extraterrestrial Pollutants
Over the past few years, there have been emerging events that have no domestic
origin. These events generally have no precedent of this magnitude in the given
countries. Dust storms are a meteorological phenomenon that usually occurs during
hurricanes in arid and semi-arid climatic zones globally, receiving less than 200–
250 mm annual rainfall. Lack of rainfall and drought, strong winds, atmospheric
circulation characteristics, climate change, loss of vegetation, and severe erosion are
factors that can be effective in creating and intensifying such phenomenon. In Africa,
the Sahara Desert is regarded as the most significant source of dust, releasing 700
million tonnes of dust into the atmosphere annually. The most important dust regions
in the Sahara Desert include the Boudelle Pit and western Mali.
Moreover, southern Algeria and eastern Mauritania have also a significant role
in the dust storms of the world (Viana et al. 2008). According to Kim et al. (2003),
when the dust phenomenon occurs, nearly 30% of the dust is deposited near the
source, 20% is released locally, and more than half is transmitted over long distances
(Kim et al. 2003). For example, dust storms in sub-Saharan Africa have increased
particle concentrations in southern Spain. The amount of these particles is 10–23
times the standard value (Wang et al. 2015, 2006). Scientific reports reveal that
storms have a unique role in transporting dust particles. It is estimated that 0.5 to 5
billion tonnes of dust particles produced in the primary sources are transported to
other regions of the world annually by storms (Escudero et al. 2007; Prospero and
Lamb 2003).
In some cases, the number of dust particles increases from 2.6 × 106 to 26.1 ×
10 particles per cubic metre. Particles smaller than 2.5 µm can affect the lungs and
6
cause serious health problems for humans (Griffin 2007).

Studies show that the Sahara Desert is the primary source of dust storms in
arid and semi-arid regions (particularly in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and
Mongolia). Northwest America and Australia are other important sources of dust.
Northeastern Mauritania, western Mali, and southern Algeria are among Africa’s
most essential dust sources (Hong 1993) (Fig. 3). Furthermore, the primary sources
of dust entering Iran are desert areas of Syria, Iraq, and the northern part of the
Arabian Peninsula. But the role of the Sahara Desert in the meantime is considered
very small (Fig. 4).
Fig. 3 The main dust-producing regions of the world

Fig. 4 The main dust-producing areas in Iraq
5 Climate Change and Its Impact on the Security

of the International System
Climate change can pave the way for regional developments by creating challenges
and opportunities, especially the escalation of conflict in the regions most affected
by these changes. Thus, it affects international order and security in the long run
and challenges regional security in some parts of the world. Africa, especially the
Sahara Desert (due to extreme heat) and South Africa (due to severe lack of rainfall),
are more influenced by climate change disasters than any other region. In other
words, these areas feel the damage more severely and more widely than other areas
(Akhavan-Kazemi and Veisi 2016). In general, the major climate change effects on
security can be summarised as follows:
– Prevalence of infectious diseases;

– Immigration;
– Severe decline in agricultural production;
– Freshwater shortage and insecurity; and
– Increasing tension over energy resources;
6 Global Climatic Trends and Forecasts
Carbon dioxide is considered the primary basis for estimating and assessing the
impact of greenhouse gases. Even the warming potential of other gases is measured
based on this gas. For example, each molecule of methane and nitroxide is equivalent
to 25 and 198 molecules of carbon dioxide, respectively, in global warming (IPCC
2006; Inventory 2010). Greenhouse gases are produced and absorbed by natural and
unnatural greenhouse springs and wells shown in Table 2.
Table 2 Greenhouse gas springs and wells

Greenhouse gas Source Springs and wells Life span
Natural Unnatural
CO2 Almost all Burning fossil Oceans and forests 50 years
organisms fuels,
deforestation, and
aerobic
fermentation of
solid and liquid
wastes
CH4 Wetlands, termites, Animal waste, rice Absorption by 10 years
rivers and oceans, paddies, bacteria in the soil
volcanoes, consumption of and chemical
hydrates, and fossil fuel, and reactions in the
domestic and wild solid and liquid atmosphere
animals wastes’ anaerobic
fermentation
N2 O Microbial Chemical Soil uptake and 140–190 years
processes in the fertilisers, biomass photochemical
soil, ocean water, burning and fossil reactions in the
and vegetated soils fuels, industrial stratosphere
products, and
human health
The Earth has become considerably warmer since reliable climatic information
and data were recorded (Fig. 5). In the last 100 years, the average global temperature
has upsurged by close to 0.7 °C (1.3 °F). Of the ten years that have been recorded as
the warmest in the history of meteorology, nine have been recorded since 2000. In
the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 is regarded as the warmest 30-year period
Fig. 5 Annual Global Temperature Abnormalities (°C), 1850–2012*. Zero baselines indicate the
average global temperature of 1990–1961
Fig. 6 Shrinking Arctic ice in the North (National Snow and Ice Data Center. Credit: Climate.gov.)
in the last 1400 years. Based on NOAA, 2014 was recognised as the warmest year
since 1880. Ocean and land temperatures have risen more than one degree Fahrenheit
above the twentieth century average.
Evidence shows that the heating rate (currently around 0.13 °C per decade) is
rising, and not all areas are heated equally. The temperature rise in the Arctic and
Antarctica is almost twice that of the world (Fig. 6) due to the melting of the Arctic
ice; since the oceans, the surface reflects less sunlight than the surface of ice; this
phenomenon is characterised as reduced albedo.
IPCC in 2013 argued that changes in the global water cycle are due to human
activities and impacts. In other words, the evidence for human impacts has increased,
which are likely to be the leading causes of the warming experienced since the
twentieth century (IPCC 2013).
Rising temperatures have had a significant impact on ecosystems. In most parts of
the world, icebergs are receding. Studies show that there were about 150 icebergs in
Montana when the Glacier National Park (GNP) was founded in 1990. But in 2010,
only 25 icebergs larger than 100,000 square metres were existent, and it is estimated
that by 2030, there will be no more icebergs in the park. Climate change is leading
to rising seas due to the melting of mountains and icy areas. Further, between 1961
and 2003, the oceans warmed by an average of 0.1 °C. Combining these two issues
has led to an annual increase of 2 mm in sea level.
Increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and rising temperatures lead to acid-
ification of the oceans. According to NOAA, oceans have absorbed about half of the
carbon dioxide that humans have produced since the industrial revolution. This has
significantly decreased the intensity of global warming but has lowered the pH of
the oceans, making them more acidic.
Recent reports in science show that the oceans have been acidifying rapidly for
the past 300 years, with potential consequences on marine ecosystems. Coral reefs
are more affected by ocean warming and acidification because they only form in a
limited temperature range (Bradbury 2012).
Based on the climatic patterns and using future greenhouse gas emission assump-
tions, IPCC estimates that the average global temperature for the years 2081–2100
compared to 1986–2005 will exceed 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) and reach 4.8 °C (6.8 °F). There-
fore, the Arctic will heat up faster than the global average, and the average onshore
will be higher than the ocean. The possible temperature increases are demonstrated
in Fig. 7, and the distribution of global warming for low-end and high-end scenarios
is shown in Fig. 8.
Fig. 7 Predicting global

temperature trends by 2100
Fig. 8 Change in average surface temperature (1986–2005 to 2081–2100)

7 Mitigation and Adaptation Policies in the Field

of Climate Change
Given that climate change occurs faster, mitigation and adaptation policies in this
area should also be addressed in the long or medium term. Such an approach makes
it possible to change climate policies in line with new technological innovations and
economic development. The effectiveness of mitigation policies varies according to
the countries’ social, economic, political, and geographical capacities. However, the
degree of success in adaptation and mitigation programmes is directly related to the
practical application of climate guidelines by the executive agencies. In this regard,
the climate policies of countries must provide guarantees for compliance with the
laws. Otherwise, global partnerships to mitigate the effects of climate change will
not succeed.
By going through the literature, two approaches to managing and mitigating
climate change impacts can be identified: top-down and bottom-up. Top-down
approaches are generally related to international agreements on climate change, e.g.,
the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. Bottom-up approaches are mainly
made at the national and regional levels with the participation of various actors. In
bottom-up approaches, the “cooperation of actors” is a crucial factor in mitigating
the impacts of climate change. Further, to minimise the effects of climate change,
two instruments, including market-based and control regulations, are usually used.
Market-based instruments refer to the subsidies and taxes systems related to green-
house gas emissions. Conversely, control regulations include specific restrictions on
carbon footprints or emissions. In this approach, climate change actors are forced
to use environmentally friendly innovations in control regulations (Jaffe and Stavins
2009).
8 Summary
Over the past two decades, climate change has impacted many countries and regions
of the world. This phenomenon’s negative impacts in developed and industrial lands
are less than in developing and underdeveloped countries. Because many devel-
oping and underdeveloped countries do not have the economic capacity to deal with
the negative impacts of this phenomenon or build the necessary infrastructure for
climate change. In recent years, some developing countries, like that of the devel-
oped countries, have accounted for the widespread use of fossil fuels (oil, gas, and
coal) with China (28.21%), the United States (15.99%), India (6.24%), Russian
(4.53%), Japan (3.67%), Germany (2.23%), Korea (1.75%), Iran (1.72%), Canada
(1.71%), and Saudi Arabia (1.56%) as the largest producers of greenhouse gases
in the world (Germanwath 2016). In this regard, the only practical and scientific
way to reduce or counteract this natural phenomenon can be summed up in global
efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions
and supplying energy from renewable and non-fossil fuels requires macroeconomic
investments and new technologies in various fields. Optimising energy consumption,
using clean and renewable fuels instead of fossil fuels, and reducing carbon emis-
sions are the key strategies in reducing a country’s emissions. These measures are
accompanied by declining revenues and the need for investment, so governments
are trying to avoid accepting responsibilities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
In other words, many countries try to delegate this responsibility to other countries
as much as possible, and in return, take advantage of opportunities for economic
and industrial development using inexpensive fossil fuels. Therefore, it is recom-
mended that each country’s contribution to greenhouse gas emissions be precisely
determined, and responsibilities are defined in proportion to their share in greenhouse
gas emissions.
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Index
A Climate action, 74, 198, 200, 208, 209,

Afforestation, 59, 126, 218–221, 329, 352, 240–242, 247, 248, 250, 255, 256,
353, 362 308, 319, 323–325
Air quality, 22, 29, 30, 79, 109, 110, 122, Climate agreements, 34, 199, 204, 207,
266, 270, 320, 362 216, 317, 323
Climate change, 1–14, 21–26, 29–34,
37–39, 42, 44, 49–66, 71–80, 82,
88–100, 104, 105, 110–112,
B 117–124, 126, 127, 130, 133–136,
Biological carbon capture, 349 138–148, 152, 154, 171, 172, 178,
179, 184, 188, 192, 196–200,
202–204, 206–211, 216–220, 226,
227, 229, 236, 237, 241–243, 247,
C 251, 253, 255, 257, 259, 263, 264,
Carbon capture storage, 348 266, 273, 279–283, 285, 286, 289,
Carbon credits, 238–246, 248, 250–257, 290, 292, 295, 296, 300, 309,
303 312–319, 321, 323, 324, 329, 330,
Carbon footprints, 302, 304, 307, 309, 345 341, 344, 351–355, 359, 361–363
Carbon neutrality, 301, 309, 323 Climate change adaptation, 34, 51, 58, 60,
Carbon sequestrations, 80, 104, 124, 171, 65, 66
174, 176, 190, 219, 220, 223–225, Climate politics, 323, 324
259, 263, 350, 352 Climate regulation, 94, 104, 108
Clean energy, 5, 299, 300, 304, 335, 344 Climate vulnerability, 282
Climate, 21, 23–25, 27, 30, 33, 37–44, Coral reefs, 141, 171, 172, 174, 179, 182,
50–52, 54, 55, 57, 58, 62, 64, 71–74, 188, 191
76–83, 88–93, 99, 101, 103, 105, Crop management, 50, 59, 61, 62, 66
107, 108, 110–112, 117, 118, 120,
122, 130, 133–136, 138, 139, 141,
144, 145, 152–154, 163, 175, 176,
183, 184, 188, 196–199, 203, 204, D
207–211, 216, 217, 219, 221–223, Direct air capture, 218, 222, 226, 357
225, 227, 236, 238, 241, 242, 247, Droughts, 4, 21, 24, 25, 29, 30, 37, 49, 52,
248, 250, 251, 253–256, 259, 261, 54, 55, 57–62, 65, 66, 75, 77, 82, 93,
265, 279–284, 289–293, 295, 296, 104, 105, 110, 111, 117–120,
304, 312–314, 317, 319, 321, 134–136, 138, 140, 142–145, 216,
323–326, 329, 330, 343, 345, 351, 219, 261, 263, 369, 371, 374, 375,
352, 354, 361–363 377
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license 389
to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022
S. A. Bandh (ed.), Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86290-9
390 Index
E N
Ecological collapse, 179 Natural resources, 50, 55, 56, 59, 62, 72,
Ecological footprint, 82, 136, 137, 321 75, 77, 103, 137, 229, 312, 313, 319,
Ecological planet index, 136, 137 347, 374
Economic loss, 25, 154, 260
Ecosystem services, 28, 104, 109, 138, 172,
273, 347 O
Extreme events, 22, 24, 25, 93, 151, 153, Oceanic circulations, 41
163, 166, 172, 205
P
Phenological changes, 138, 139
F Photovoltaics, 300, 304, 309, 334
Floods, 21, 24, 25, 27, 28, 37, 52, 54, 55,
76, 82, 93, 96, 104, 105, 110,
118–120, 135, 144, 146, 151–157, R
159–167, 265, 270, 371, 373–376 Radiative forcing, 8, 9, 24
Food security, 4, 21, 33, 37, 49, 52–55, 62, Reforestation, 171, 174, 188, 190, 192,
65, 75, 77, 78, 80, 82, 130, 228, 371, 218–221, 352, 353
377, 378 Resilience, 50, 59, 80, 96, 208, 209, 247,
Fossil fuels, 5, 7, 9, 10, 43, 80, 117, 127, 259, 263–266, 271, 273, 274
216, 224, 226, 228, 229, 245, Restoration, 66, 171, 173–177, 179–183,
299–304, 307, 309, 312, 315, 319, 185–192, 218, 329, 352, 353
323, 324, 331–333, 336, 339, 340,
344, 345, 347–349, 355, 356, 359,
S
360, 364
Sea level rise, 13, 29, 37
Soil erosion, 57, 119, 120, 122, 271
Soil management, 123
G Solar energy, 7, 9, 302, 321, 334–336, 352,
Geo-engineering, 351 362
Global warming, 1–3, 6, 23, 24, 26, 29, 30, Solar manipulation, 350
33, 34, 37, 43, 89, 111, 117–122, Solar variations, 42
134–136, 141–143, 145–147, 152, Storms, 14, 21–24, 28–32, 37, 55, 57, 94,
153, 196, 204, 216, 217, 220, 221, 110, 118, 136, 143, 155, 172, 216,
248, 259–261, 263, 273, 274, 312, 262, 263, 265, 372, 375, 376, 378,
318, 320, 321, 323, 325, 329, 330, 379
352, 353, 362 Sustainable development, 49, 52, 55, 56, 62,
Great barrier reefs, 171–175, 177, 178, 65, 71, 73–77, 79, 80, 87, 111, 130,
181–189, 191, 192 136, 204, 210, 239, 240, 255, 256,
Greenhouse effect, 38, 72, 118, 312 292, 293, 295, 296, 300, 316, 372
System dynamics, 171, 173, 174, 192
H
Heat stress, 21, 27, 44, 107, 129, 172, 261, T
273 Territorial integrity, 49, 56, 65
Heatwaves, 4, 21, 23, 24, 27, 30, 52,
103–109, 111, 122, 136, 216,
U
260–262, 265, 267, 374, 375
Urban heat island, 79, 107, 108, 259, 260,
265, 266, 273
M
Migration, 5, 25, 28, 29, 41, 42, 49, 52, W
56–60, 65, 77, 78, 91, 134, 141, 313, Water management, 59, 62, 65, 94, 270
378 Water quality, 31, 32, 54, 75, 178
Wildfires, 22, 24, 25, 29, 30, 261, 353

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ISBN 978-3-030-86289-3 ISBN 978-3-030-86290-9 (eBook)

Understanding Climate Change: Scientific Opinion and Public

Climate Change and Concurrency of Extreme Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151

Fayaz A. Malla, Aiman Mushtaq, Suhaib A. Bandh, Irteza Qayoom,

Keywords Climate change · Understanding · Public perspective · Scientific

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 1

The term “climate change” refers to a wide range of physical phenomena as

2 Scientific Consensus on Climate Change

There is considerable scientific consensus that climate change is occurring mostly as

3 Opinion of Leading Scientific Organisations on Climate

In contemporary times, the dynamic climate regime of the earth is unquestionably

4 The Public Perspective of Climate Change

5 Climate Change as Seen Through the Lens of the Earth’s

Fig. 1 Energy flows on the earth

Fig. 2 Specific pathways within the dominant solar flow

6 Climate Change and the Radiative Forcing

7 Spatio-Temporal Measurement of Climate Change

8 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2 )

9 Global Average Surface Temperature

10 Rising Sea Levels and Acidifying Oceans

Paleo-climatologists have developed many groundbreaking methods to collect

14 Researcher’s Opinion on Earth’s Climate Destiny

Cook J, Nuccitelli D, Green SA, Richardson M, Winkler B, Painting R, . . . Skuce A (2013)

Steffen W, Persson A, Deutsch L, Zalasiewicz J, Williams M, Richardson K, Svedin U (2011) The

Keywords Threats · Risks · Climate change · Food production · Diseases ·

M. M. Majedul Islam (B)

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 21

distribution of food-borne and vector-borne infectious diseases. Anthropogenic influ-

Table 1 Impact of climate change and extreme events on humanity

2 Our Changing Climate

The fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

3 Extreme Event Impacts

3.1 Temperature Related Threats

An increasing number of studies has generally projected a net increase in deaths

3.2 Heavy Rainfall and Flood

Table 2 Types of losses due to floods

3.3 Severe Storms

3.4 Sea Level Rise

3.5 Droughts and Fires

4 Air Quality Impacts

5 Water Quality Impacts

Climate change is expected to affect water resources in different ways, increasing

Climatic factors or drivers include temperature, precipitation and related runoff,

7 Impact on Food Safety and Nutrition

8 Impact on Mental Health and Well-Being

Zia Ur Rahman Farooqi, Muhammad Sabir, Abdul Qadeer, Alishba Naeem,

Abstract Climate change, caused by natural (climate variability, volcanic eruptions,

Keywords Fossil fuels · Global warming · Greenhouse gasses · Natural

Z. U. R. Farooqi (B) · M. Sabir · A. Qadeer · A. Naeem · G. Murtaza · H. Yousaf

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 37

Scientifically, climate change is considered as the alteration in the climatic

2 Climate Change: Origin and Concepts

Climate change is a multidimensional subject with paradoxical dimensions. Although

3 Causes of Climate Change

3.1.1 Volcanic Eruptions

Fig. 1 Cause of climate change

cause CC. Long-term or prolonged volcanism events can cause CC on a regional

Table 1 Top ten major volcanism events in human history