MAC Group Project
MAC Group Project
MAC Group Project
KAJARIA
CERAMICS
LIMITED
Laying a ‘premium’ foundation for business growth
Gaining market share in an unorganized industry
Bloomberg KJC IN
Sustained improvement in market share…: Kajaria Ceramics (KJC) is a leading
Equity Shares (m) 159.23
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 198.4 / 2.4 tiles manufacturer in India with ~6% revenue share in the domestic market. It
52-Week Range (INR) 1280 / 898 has gained market share steadily underpinned by superior distribution network
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 11/19/11 (7% CAGR over FY12-23), improved geographical reach and premium/new tile
12M Avg Val (INR M) 213 launches (~750 SKUs in FY23).
Free float (%) 52.5 …leads to higher volume and revenue share: KJC’s industry volume share to rise
to 4.5% in CY22E from 4.2% in CY17; whereas, its revenue share within the listed
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E MARCH FY23 FY24E FY25E
organized players improved to 34% in FY22 (36% in 9MFY23) from 20% in FY10.
Sales 43.8 48.7 54.4 Production capacities on the rise across businesses: KJC’s production capacity
EBITDA 5.9 7.8 9.3 increased by 16% in FY23 (ex-Vennar Ceramics) and it will further increase by
Adj. PAT 3.5 4.8 5.9 8.5% by FY25E. It is also raising capacities of faucet/sanitaryware segments by
EBITA Margin (%) 13.5 16.1 17.0
0.6m pieces each. We forecast ~11% revenue CAGR during FY23-25.
Cons. Adj. EPS (INR) 22.1 30.0 37.4
EPS Gr. (%) -8.0 35.7 24.4 Remains cash positive despite significant capex: KJC enjoys industry leading
BV/Sh. (INR) 146 161 178 margins driven by premium pricing (5-6% higher than branded competitors) and
Ratios higher share of retail sales (70% v/s industry average of 50%). KJC turned net cash
Net D:E (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) in FY19 and we expect it to maintain the same in FY25 despite incurring a capex
RoE (%) 15.8 19.5 21.9
of INR6.7b over FY24-25.
RoCE (%) 18.1 22.6 25.8
Payout (%) 41.4 50.0 53.5 Strong growth levers in place; Initiate with a BUY: We initiate coverage on the
Valuations stock with a BUY rating and a TP of INR1,490 premised on 40x FY25E EPS (v/s 35x
P/E (x) 56.3 41.5 33.4 last five-year average one-year forward P/E). We believe that: a) 30% earnings
P/BV (x) 8.5 7.7 7.0
CAGR over FY23-25E, b) strong return ratios (RoE of 22%, ROCEof 26% and RoIC of
EV/EBITDA (x) 33.2 24.9 21.0
EV/Sales (x) 4.5 4.0 3.6 31% in FY25E), and c) healthy balance sheet willhelp KJC maintain premium
multiples.
Shareholding pattern (%) Key downside risks: a) rise in gas and commodity prices, b) demand
As On Mar-23 Dec-22 Mar-22 slowdown and c) competition from unorganized players.
Promoter 47.5 47.5 47.5 Largest player in the Indian ceramics industry with ~6% revenue share
DII 26.2 24.5 20.3
The Indian ceramics industry is valued at INR599b as of FY23 (share of
FII 16.9 18.6 21.3
Others 9.4 9.4 10.9 organized players at 40%) with total production of more than 2,700msm by
FII Includes depository receipts CY22. Morbi, Gujarat accounts for over 70% of the total production in India
and houses over 700 production units, of which many are export-oriented
Stock performance (one-year) units.
Kajaria Ceramics
Export of tiles from India has clocked a CAGR of 23% over FY18-23 with
Nifty - Rebased
1,400 ~17% of domestic production being exported into different countries. KJC is
1,250
primarily focused on domestic markets with a mere ~2% of its total revenue
being generated from outside India.
1,100
KJC has 2.2% share in total production(excluding outsourced volumes) of
950 tiles in India; however, its market share in sales volume stands at 4.5% (v/s
800 4.2% in CY17). We believe KJCenjoys 6% revenue share in total domestictiles
currently.
May-
Nov-
May-
Sep-
Jan-
Jul-
23
3
Kajaria
_
Improving revenue share among listed players (%) Has grown higher than other tiles players (%)
Improving revenue share amongst listed players Revenue growth of listed players (%) over FY10-22
36
31 33 33 33 34 14.4
30 11.9 11.9
28 8.2
24 25 26 5.4
20 20 22
-0.5 -0.8
Murudeshw
Nit
Soma
Kaja
Orient
10
11
13
16
17
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
9MFY
Asian
HR
Source: MOFSL, Source: MOFSL, Company
Company
Market share of KJC and other listed players Increase in industry market share in volume terms
Nit
Soma
Kaja
Orient
Asian
HR
CY2
CY
CY
CY
CY
CY
Source: MOFSL, Source: MOFSL, Company
Company
Cumulative AD spends at 2.5% of revenue over FY11-23 Increasing number of dealers to support growth
No. of dealers (unit)
AD spends (INR m) As % of revenues
4.7
2,1
3.9
1,8
3.6 3.7
1,7
1,5
1,5
1,4
1,4
21
26
32
54
56
79
53
90
3
3
11
FY1
FY1
FY1
FY1
FY1
FY1
FY
FY
FY2
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
12
5
Kajaria
KJC’s FY23 quarterly performance – Profitability impacted in 2Q and 3Q due to cost pressures
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
A standalone shop
at gives dedicated space to all tile verticals
Multi brand
dealers
7
Kajaria
India is the second largest producer of tiles with industry size of ~INR599b as of
FY23 and production of 2,700+ msm in CY22E. Tiles production/consumption
reported a CAGR of 7%/6%, respectively, over CY17-22.
Tiles exports from India clocked a CAGR of 23% over FY18-23 and India exports
~17% of its total production. At the same time, India’s dependence on imports has
declined significantly over the last few years (0.1% of total consumption).
KJC is the leading tiles manufacturer in India with 2.2% share of domestic
production (excluding outsourced volumes) and 4.5% share of total sales volume
in CY22E (v/s 4.2% in CY17). We believe KJC’s revenue share stands at ~6% in total
domestic tiles consumption.
The company reported 14.4% revenue CAGR over FY10-22, which helped it gain
market share (to 34% in FY22 from 20% in FY10) among the listed organized players.
India is the second largest producer of tiles globally and as per industry estimates;
Ceramics industry in India is valued at ~INR599b (INR424b domestic market+
INR175b exports) v/s INR527b (INR400b domestic market+ INR127b exports) in
FY22. Tiles production in CY22 is estimated to be 2,700+ msm. Domestic tiles
production has reported a CAGR of 7% over CY17-22; while consumption has posted
a CAGR of 6% in the same period. During CY20-22E (post-Covid-19) the consumption
clocked an 8% CAGR in line with production growth.
Exhibit 1: Production exceeds consumption in the last few Exhibit 2: India’s production share at 14% in the global tiles
years industry
India tiles production (msm) India tiles consumption Egypt
(msm)
Indonesia 2%
2,703 2%
2,550
Italy Others
2,223 2,318 2% China
2,193 16%
2,011 2,069
1,897 1,867 1,884 Turkey 48%
1,678 1,742 2% Iran
3%
Spain
3%
Vietnam Brazil
2% 6% India
CY2
CY
CY
CY
CY
CY
14%
Source: MOFSL, Industry, Company Source: MOFSL, Industry, Company
Indian ceramic tiles industry is highly fragmented with unorganized players enjoying
~60% market share. Morbi, Gujarat accounts for over 70% of the total production in
India and houses over 700 production units; of which many are export-oriented.
Other clusters for tiles production include Thangadh (Gujarat), Virudachalam (Tamil
Nadu), Himatnagar (Gujarat), Khurja (Uttar Pradesh), Palpara (West Bengal) and East
and West Godavari (Andhra Pradesh).
Tiles exports from India have increased significantly over the last few years aided by
China+1 strategy and exports have registered a 23% CAGR over FY18-23. Exports
constituted 17% of total tiles production in CY22E v/s 13% in FY18.
9
Kajaria
Exhibit 3: Tiles exports posted a 23% CAGR over FY18-23 Exhibit 4: Rising share of exports in domestic
production
Tiles exports from India (in msm)
449 446 458 Exports as % of domestic production
19
385
17 17
289 17
241
14
13
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
Source: MOFSL, Industry, Company Source: MOFSL, Industry, Company
At the same time, India’s dependence on imports have reduced significantly over
the last few years with imports contributing to 0.1% of tiles produced as well tiles
consumption in India.
Exhibit 5: Import of tiles have declined over the years Exhibit 6: Tiles imports % of India’s production/demand
4.6
3.9 0.8 0.4
1.92.0 2.3 0.3 0.2
0.1 0.1 0.1
0.4 0.2 0.1
0.2 0.1
0.1
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
Source: MOFSL, Industry, Company Source: MOFSL, Industry, Company
Despite India’s per capita tiles consumption growth at 4.5% CAGR over CY17-22E;
India’s consumption still remains at lower level compared to other nation.
Exhibit 7: Per capita tiles consumption posted 4.5% CAGR Exhibit 8: India’s tiles consumption below global average
Per capita tiles consumption (sq. mt.)
5.9
1.56
1.48 4.2
1.37 1.37
1.29 2.3
1.25 1.6
Bra
Chi
Wo
CY
CY
CY
CY
CY
CY2
In
KJC, over the years, has cemented its place as the leading tiles manufacturer in the
country and outpaced the growth of other listed organized players. The company
has gained volume share in a highly fragmented industry (with ~60% volumes sold
by unorganized players).
1
Kajaria
KJC holds 2.2% share in total production (excluding outsourced volumes) of tiles in
India as of CY22; however, its market share in sales volume stands at 4.5% (v/s 4.2%
in CY17). We believe KJC enjoys 6% revenue share in total domestic tiles currently.
KJC sells 98% of its products in the domestic market (30%+ export volumes for the
industry).
Exhibit 9: KJC’s sales volume growth v/s industry growth Exhibit 10: KJC gained volume share in domestic sales (%)
Domestic tiles consumption (YoY chg-%)
KJC's industry volume share
40.0 KJC's sales volume (YoY chg-%)
4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5
4.2
25.0 3.6
10.0
-5.0
-20.0
CY2
CY
CY
CY
CY
CY
CY2
CY
CY
CY
CY
CY
CY
CY
CY
CY
CY
KJC’s installed capacities and sales volumes clocked a CAGR of 7% and 11%,
KJC posted 14.4% revenue CAGRrespectively,
over FY10-22over
v/sFY10-22,
7.5% forwhich
otherhelped
listed it achieve 14.4% revenue CAGR during this
players period. Combined revenues of other listed organized players (e.g., Somany, H&R
Johnson, Orient Bell, Nitco Tiles, Murudeshwar and Asian Granito) have recorded a
CAGR of 7.5% over FY10-22. Higher revenue growth helped KJC gain a significant
revenue share v/s competitors and its revenue share among these players rose to
34% in FY22 (36% in 9MFY23) from 20% in FY10.
Exhibit 11: Highest revenue growth among listed players Exhibit 12: Gained revenue share v/s other tiles companies
Revenue growth of listed players (%) over FY10-22 FY10 (%) FY22 (%) 9MFY23 (%)
3436
14.4 32
11.9 11.9
8.2
5.4 20 19212120
15 15
12 11 13
-0.5 -0.8 7 6 6
4 1 1 4 3
Murudeshw
Nit
Soma
Kaja
Murudeshw
Nit
Soma
Kaja
Orient
Orient
Asian
HR
Asian
HR
1
Kajaria
Exhibit 24: New initiatives and launches in the Bathware and Plywood segments
Source: MOFSL, Company
1,0
1,0
1,3
1,5
1
8
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY2
FY2
Source: MOFSL, Company
The company has also associated itself with national sporting events (AD in cricket
matches) and branding in high footfall areas (at more than 30 airports) that helps to
improve it brand presence. KJC has roped in Bollywood celebrities for advertising its
products – Akshay Kumar for the tiles business, Anushka Sharma for the Bathware
segment and Ranveer Singh for the plywood segment.
1
Kajaria
KJC commands a pricing premium of 5-6% over peers owing to its strong brand
equity that is reflected in superior margins (OPM of 16.5% for KJC, 10.9% for SOMC,
and 10.6% for H&R Johnson in FY22 and 13.1% for KJC, 7.1% for SOMC and 7% for
H&R Johnson in 9MFY23). In our view, high innovation levels (being first to the
market with new products such as large format tiles / vitrified tiles, et al), aggressive
expansion, focus on brand building and retail sales have been the key factors of
KJC’s success story. With KJC’s leading market position, we expect new scale
benefits to accrue in future.
Strong pan-India distribution network
on network spanning 1,840 pan-India KJC has a strong pan-India distribution network comprising 1,840 dealers as of
utors with 15,000+ retail touch points Mar’23 (v/s 750 dealers in FY12, CAGR of 7% over FY12-23) with a reach of 15,000+
retail touch points, among the largest in the Indian tile industry. The company
targets to increase dealer count by ~450 in the next three years (addition of 150
dealers every year). Increasing distribution rapidly is a key to capitalize on the
brand’s growing awareness. Additionally, KJC has created 400 exclusive showrooms
across India (50 showrooms opened in one year) to improve visibility.
Exhibit 26: Aggressively ramped up dealer network
No. of dealers (unit)
2,10
1,7
1,5
1,5
1,4
1,4
1,1
9
7
FY2
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
Source: Company, MOSL
Institutional
30%
Retail
Institutional
50% 50%
Retail
70%
1
Kajaria
nson’s average realization during FY22 KJC’s average realization for tiles was 15-18% higher than SOMC over FY18-FY22 led
by: 1) brand premium of 5-6% and 2) better product-mix (higher sales of vitrified
tiles that have better realization than ceramics). During FY21/22, KJC’s average
realization was 19%/16% above H&R Johnson’s average realization (considering
revenues of the tiles segment only).
Between FY12 and FY23, KJC’s ceramics tile volumes have posted a mere 6% CAGR
v/s 13% volume CAGR for vitrified tiles. Realization of vitrified tiles is 2-3% higher
than that of ceramic tiles.
Exhibit 29: Realization trend of KJC and SOMC (INR/sqm) Exhibit 30: Sales-mix of KJC: increasing mix of vitrified tiles
SOMC KJC
Ceramics GVT+PVT
400
200
11
17
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
Source: MOFSL, Company Source: MOFSL, Company
Higher realization and better sales-mix have helped KJC generate much better
profitability compared with peers. Average EBITDA margin of KJC was at 16.6%
over FY12-22 v/s 4.6% for H&R Johnson and 9.3% for SOMC.
Exhibit 31: KJC’s OPM has been much better than peers (%)
18
12
0
9MFY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
FY
1
Kajaria
Financial outlook
Revenue CAGR of ~11% expected over FY23-25
We expect KJC to report ~11% revenue CAGR over FY23-25 fueled by 12% tiles
volume CAGR and 27.5%/25.0% YoY revenue growth in Bathware and Plywood
segments. Tiles realization improved 7% YoY in FY23, after a 10% YoY growth in
FY22. However, we believe that KJC will pass on the benefits if raw material costs
drop and hence, we have factored in a decline in realization of 1.5% YoY each in
FY24/25E.
Exhibit 32: Revenue should grow at 11% CAGR over FY23- Exhibit 33: Realization improved 7% in FY23
25
Tiles realization (Rs/scm) YoY chg (%)
Revenue (INR m) YoY chg (%)
58,000 33
420
10
46,000 23 7
19 390 7
18 11 3
14 12 2
34,000 10 9 360 1 (0) 1 (2) (2)
6 6 (5) (4) (2)
(5) ( 1)
22,000 330
10,000 300
13
13
FY1
FY1
FY1
FY1
FY1
FY1
FY1
FY1
FY1
FY1
FY
FY
FY
FY
14
14
5
9
Source: MOFSL, Company Source: MOFSL, Company
We expect KJC to post 25% EBITDA CAGR over FY23-25. We have estimated OPM to
be at 16%/17% in FY24/FY25 v/s 13.5% in FY23 (16.5% in FY22). EBITDA/sqm
should be at INR69/INR73 in FY24E/FY25E v/s INR58 in FY23.
2
Kajaria
Slowdown in demand
Rise in commodity prices have led to an increase in the prices of the entire building
material products. Any further increase in prices may lead to weak demand in the
near term. This can impact the demand growth assumptions for the company.
Company overview
KJC, the largest manufacturer of ceramic/vitrified tiles in India, was started by Mr.
Ashok Kajaria in 1988, a technocrat from California University, in technical
collaboration with Todagres, Spain. KJC came out with a public issue in Sep’88 to set
up a factory in Sikandrabad, Uttar Pradesh (commercial production of this unit
commenced in Aug’88). Starting with < 1msm in 1988, in FY23 the company has
ramped up production capacities to 81.55msm (excluding capacity of Vennar
Ceramics) comprising 53.4msm of own manufacturing and 28.2msm capacities of
JVs. Further, it outsources a significant level of production to trading partners.
KJC offers more than 3,000 options in ceramic wall & floor tiles, vitrified tiles,
designer tiles, et al. These tiles come in a wide range of colors and textures to
complement bathrooms, living rooms, corridors, study rooms and kitchen, born out
of an inspired creativity of those who feel that rooms should be an extension of the
beauty reflected.
Exhibit 45: KJC’s manufacturing facilities are spread across north, west and south regions
SWOT analysis
Enjoys economies of Increasing sales from Scope of increasing its Competition from
scale, huge brand
outsourcing over geographical reach; the unorganized players
equity and pricing
FY20- 23, margins of company has yet to who hold ~ 60%
power.
outsourced tiles are enter several markets. market share.
Improved balance sheet lower than own Scope of improvement Any increase in gas
strength will help to manufactured/JV tiles. in revenues of other and other commodity
pursue growth
Receivables days have verticals – Bathware prices may impact its
opportunities.
been higher for last few and Plywood near-term margins as
years (average of 57 segments. was the case in FY23.
days over FY18-23 v/s Fragmentation in the
41 days over FY11-17. industry may create
scope for
consolidation.