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    Tutorial 11

    Uploaded by

    Robert Oo

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    Tutorial 11

    Uploaded by

    Robert Oo
    17 views2 pages

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    © © All Rights Reserved

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    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
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    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    17 views2 pages

    Tutorial 11

    Uploaded by

    Robert Oo

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    of 2

    BQA1014 Quantitative Analysis Models for Business TRI 2 2022/2023

    Tutorial 11: Time Series Analysis

    1. The following data shows the orders (in RM 000) received by a company from year
    2020 to 2022.

    Year Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4


    2020 1580 1880 2020 3240
    2021 1680 1980 2100 3390
    2022 1770 2160 2320 3740

    a) Find the trend by means of moving average.


    b) Based on part a), find the seasonal factors by using the additive model.
    c) Based on part b), calculate the seasonally adjusted figures for the 4 quarters
    of 2022 using the additive model.

    2. A large shop opens six days a week, Monday to Saturday. The sales for three
    weeks, in RM100, were recorded as below:

    Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday


    Week 1 142 154 98 128 182 285
    Week 2 151 166 102 141 192 302
    Week 3 159 172 106 146 199 320

    a) Using a moving average, find the trend and the average daily adjustments.
    b) Forecast sales for the first two days of Week 4, and briefly discuss the likely
    accuracy of your forecast.

    3. The following data shows the output of a factory over a 3-week period. The factory
    works a 5-day week.

    Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday


    Week 1 86 92 104 98 78
    Week 2 90 99 110 102 80
    Week 3 93 101 116 110 83

    a) By means of a moving average, find the trend and the average daily
    variations.
    b) Seasonally adjust the data for Week 3. What does this show?

    1
    BQA1014 Quantitative Analysis Models for Business TRI 2 2022/2023

    4. The sales of an electrical items of a company for the year 2018 to 2020 are listed
    below:

    Year Sales (RM 000)


    1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter
    2018 48 44 26 38
    2019 65 32 30 35
    2020 73 38 34 46

    a) By means of moving average, calculate the trend and the average seasonal
    components with a multiplicative model.
    b) Forecast the sales for the first and second quarters of the year 2021.

    5. The personal savings as a percentage of earned income for a particular state in a


    country are listed below:

    Year Personal savings (%)


    Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
    2020 9.1 7.9 7.7 5.9
    2021 10.6 7.2 7.3 6.3
    2022 10.9 9.1 8.5 7.4

    a) Determine the quarterly seasonal factors by using the multiplicative model.


    b) Forecast the percentage savings for the 1st quarter of 2023.

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