Indsec ABFRL Q1 FY'21
Indsec ABFRL Q1 FY'21
Indsec ABFRL Q1 FY'21
STOCK DETAILS
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Bloomberg code ABFRL:IN
Market Cap (Rs. bn) 102.6
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail reported 84.4% YoY decline in topline to Rs.3.2bn, led by COVID-19 led shutdown
and disruption during the qtr. Madura Fashion & Lifestyle reported 80.2% YoY decline to Rs.2.4bn, while Panta-
Market Cap (USD bn) 1.4
loons sales declined 90.8% YoY to Rs.0.8bn. It reported an EBITDA loss of Rs.3.6bn vs. a profit of 3.1bn YoY. Howev-
Sector Retail
er, the company was able to cut down on its expenses, which declined by 61.0% YoY in absolute terms. Other in-
Index S&P BSE 200 come was higher at Rs.1.8bn owing to accounting the unconditional rent concessions of Rs. 1.6bn. It reported a net
52 w.High/Low 285/97 loss of Rs.4.1bn as on Q1FY21. As per management, 80% of its stores has resumed operations by the end of the qtr.
Avg Monthly Turnover At present 90% of its stores are functional and expects full normalcy in sales to return by Q4FY21. It has increased
150.3
(Rs.mn) the focus on digital platforms and other innovative routes (Pantaloons on wheels, video shopping, WhatsApp com-
Shares in Issue (mn) 864.0 merce and hyper local delivery) to reach out to customers. It witnessed 2x sales on third party e-commerce
BSE Sensex 38,051 platforms and a multi-fold jump in own website sales. The company has completed the rights issue of Rs 10bn, out
NSE Nifty 11,259
of which Rs 7.5bn will be received in FY21E and Rs 2.5bn in 1QFY22E.
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN Key Takeaways from the call:
% Sep-19 Dec-19 March-20 June-20
Promoter 59.09 59.09 59.07 59.07
Cost Reduction Initiative: Management informed about its successful cost saving initiative since the pandemic which
Pledge NA NA NA NA was reflected in Rs.4.5bn of cost saving on QoQ basis through various initiatives. These initiatives include lower em-
FII 9.70 9.36 8.43 6.39 ployee costs (hiring freeze and lower fixed/variable pay), lower administrative expenses and negotiating rentals. As
DII 20.28 20.52 21.35 22.1 stated by the management, employee cost optimization began in June and the actual benefit would flow in Q2 while
Others 10.92 11.03 11.16 11.28 on the rental side it is re-negotiating terms with landlords (1.6bn in savings already accounted for in other income).
CONSOLIDATED FINANCIALS
Rs in bn FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E Quarterly Performance Table
Revenue 81.2 87.9 59.3 85.5
Particulars (Rs mn) Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 YoY (%) QoQ (%)
EBIDTA 5.5 12.1 7.5 13.8
Net Sales 20,073.4 22,815.5 19,153.1 20,654.6 23,077.8 25,827.4 18,318.8 3,230.2 -84.36% -82.37%
OPM (%) 6.8% 13.8% 12.6% 16.1%
Gross profit 10,459.6 11,389.2 10,155.4 11,171.6 11,604.0 13,462.0 9,399.5 1,334.7 -88.05% -85.80%
PAT 1.3 -0.3 -3.0 0.3
Gross margin (%) 52.1% 49.9% 53.0% 54.1% 50.3% 52.1% 51.3% 41.3% -2361bps -1947bps
EPS (Rs.) 1.6 -0.4 -3.9 0.4
EBITDA 1,428.0 1,729.3 1,245.0 3,140.6 3,392.2 4,082.9 1,502.6 -3,603.9 -214.75% -339.84%
EV/EBITDA 20.7x 10.3x 15.1x 8.9x
OPM (%) 7.1% 7.6% 6.5% 15.2% 14.7% 15.8% 8.2% N.A N.A N.A
AYUSH JAIN
Research Analyst Adj. PAT 427.3 702.5 2,026.4 215.6 -23.5 -376.4 -1,465.9 -4,103.6 N.A N.A
[email protected] EPS (Rs) 0.55 0.91 2.62 0.28 -0.03 -0.49 -1.89 -5.30 N.A N.A
+91 22 61146140 Source: Company, Indsec Research *Comparable.
Revenue Mix Madura Fashion & Lifestyle Pantaloons Revenue Trend (Rs.bn)
0.0% 0 -100.0%
Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q2FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21
400 2500
350
2000
300
250 1500
200
343 342 342 2187 2253 2222
331 1000 1980 2057 2096
150 302 308 314 1897 1959
282 288 1838
100
500
50
0 0
Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q2FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q2FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21
300.00
Periods
Date Closing Price TP Rating Analyst
(months)
100.00
50.00
0.00
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INDSEC
INDSEC Rating Distribution
BUY : Expected total return of over 20% within the next 12-18 months.
HOLD : Expected total return between 0% to 20% within the next 12-18 months.
SELL : Expected total return is negative within the next 12-18 months.
NEUTRAL: No investment opinion, stock under review.
Note: Considering the current pandemic situation, the duration for the price target may vary depending on how the macro scenario plays out. Therefore, the duration which has been mentioned as a period of 12-18
months for upside/downside target may be higher for certain companies.
DISCLOSURE
DISCLOSURE
BUSINESS ACTIVITIES:
Indsec Securities and Finance Limited (ISFL) is a corporate member of BSE (Equity, WDM segment), of NSEIL (Equity, WDM, Futures & Options and Currency Derivative segments) and has also secured membership of the MSEI Exchange (Currency
Derivative Segment) vide registration No. INZ000236731. ISFL is an AMFI Registered Mutual Fund Advisor (MRMFA) vide Registration Number 9194. ISFL is also a Depository Participant of the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and a
SEBI registered Portfolio Manager. With this setup ISFL is in a position to offer all types of services in the securities industry.
Since inception company’s focus has been on research. In view of its research capabilities ISFL focused mainly on institutional business and is today empaneled with most of the local financial institutions, insurance companies, banks and mutual
funds. ISFL has grown from being a medium size broking outfit to become one of the largest capitalized Indian broking company offering the complete range of broking services.
ISFL was incorporated on 28th July 1993 and doesn’t have any associates/ subsidiaries. ISFL is a registered Portfolio Manager under SEBI (Portfolio Managers) Regulations, 1993 vide registration No. INP000001892.
DISCIPLINARY HISTORY:
• No material penalties / directions have been issued by the SEBI under the securities laws, SEBI Act or Rules or Regulations made there under
• No penalties have been imposed for any economic offence by any authority.
• No material deficiencies in the systems and operations of the Company have been observed by any regulatory agency.
• There are no pending material litigations or legal proceedings, findings of inspections or investigations for which action has been taken or initiated by any regulatory authority against the Company or its Directors, principal officers or em-
ployees or any person directly or indirectly connected with the Company.
DECLARATION:
• ISFL/Research Analysts or their associates or their relatives do not have any financial interest in the subject company (ies);
• ISFL/Research Analysts or their associates or their relatives do not have actual or beneficial ownership of 1 % or more in the subject company (ies);
• Directors may have actual or beneficial ownership of 1 % or more in the subject company (ies);
• ISFL/Research Analysts or their associates or their relatives do not have any material conflict of interest in the subject company(ies) at the time of publication of this document;
• ISFL has not received any compensation from the subject company (ies) in the past twelve months;
• ISFL has not managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company (ies) in the past twelve months;
• ISFL has not received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or any other service from the subject company (ies) in the past twelve months;
• ISFL has not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company (ies) or third party in connection with this document;
• None of the research analysts have served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company (ies);
• ISFL has not been engaged in the market making activity for the subject company (ies);
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INDSEC
DISCLOSURE
This document has been issued by ISFL and is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of security.
This document has been prepared and issued on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. However, we do not guarantee its accuracy and the information may be incomplete
and condensed. Note however that, we have taken meticulous care to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and opinions given are fair and reasonable, neither the analyst nor any other employee of our company is in any way responsible for
its contents. The Company’s research department has received assistance from the subject company (ies) referred to in this document including, but not limited to, discussions with management of the subject company (ies). All opinions, projec-
tions and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of this document and these, including any other information contained in this document, are subject to change without notice. Prices and availability of financial instru-
ments also are subject to change without notice. While we would endeavor to update the information herein on reasonable basis, we are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compli-
ance, or other reasons that may prevent us from doing so.
Securities recommended in this document are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Any decision to purchase/sale securities mentioned in this document must take into account existing public
information on such security or any registered prospectus. The appropriateness of a particular investment, decision or strategy will depend on an investor's individual circumstances and objectives. The securities, instruments, or strategies dis-
cussed in this document may not be suitable for all investors, and certain investors may not be eligible to purchase or participate in some or all of them. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to
arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved).
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would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject the company to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Further, this document is not directed or intended for distribution to the US taxpayers covered under
US Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) provisions. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are
required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction
This is just a suggestion and the company will not be responsible for any profit or loss arising out of the decision taken by the reader of this document. Any comments or statements made herein are those of the analyst and do not necessarily
reflect those of the company. No matter contained in this document may be reproduced or copied without the consent of the company. Any unauthorized use, duplication, redistribution or disclosure is prohibited by law and will result in prose-
cution. The information contained in this document is intended solely for the recipient and may not be further distributed by the recipient. The Company accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties.
The research analyst(s) of this document certifies that all of the views expressed in this document accurately reflect their personal views about those issuer(s) or securities. Analyst’s holding in the stocks mentioned in the Report:-NIL
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