Modeling Ass2

University of Poonch Rawalakot
Department of Computer and Science and IT
Subject: Modelling and Simulation

Submitted To: Ma’am Lubna
Submitted By:
Name Roll No
Ossara Ajaz 57
Semester: BS(SE)7th
Session: 2020-2024
Assignment #02
Question#01:
Suppose you want to estimate the value of π (pi) using the Monte Carlo method. Describe
how you would go about this, including the steps involved and the reasoning behind them.
Then, provide a simple Python code to implement this method and calculate an
approximation of π.
Answer:
1. Generate random points: Generate a large number of random points, each with
coordinates (x, y) that range from -1 to 1. These points will fall within a square with sides
of length 2.
2. Check if the points are within the quarter circle: Calculate the distance of each point
from the origin (0,0). If the distance is less than or equal to 1, the point falls within the
quarter circle.
3. Count the points within the quarter circle: Keep track of the number of points that fall
within the quarter circle.
4. Calculate the ratio of points inside the quarter circle to the total points: The ratio of
the number of points inside the quarter circle to the total number of points generated
should be proportional to the ratio of the area of the quarter circle to the area of the
square. Since the area of the square is 4, and the area of the quarter circle is π, the ratio is
π/4.
5. Estimate π: Multiply the ratio by 4 to estimate the value of π.
Here's a simple Python code to implement this method:
import random
def estimate_pi(num_points):
points_inside_circle = 0
for _ in range(num_points):
# Generate random points in the range [-1, 1]
x = random.uniform(-1, 1)
y = random.uniform(-1, 1)
# Check if the point is inside the quarter circle
if x**2 + y**2 <= 1:
points_inside_circle += 1
# Estimate pi
pi_estimate = 4 * points_inside_circle / num_points
return pi_estimate
# Number of random points

num_points = 1000000
# Estimate pi
pi_estimate = estimate_pi(num_points)
print("Approximation of pi using Monte Carlo method:", pi_estimate)
Question#02:
A manufacturing company produces a certain type of electronic component. The
production process involves several stages, each with its own set of parameters and
variables. Management wants to optimize the production process to minimize defects and
maximize efficiency. How can you use modeling and simulation techniques to analyze and
improve the production process?
Answer:
Modeling and simulation techniques can be powerful tools for analyzing and improving the production
process of electronic components. Here's how you could approach it:
1. Understanding the Production Process:
• Start by thoroughly understanding each stage of the production process, including the
equipment used, the parameters involved, and the interactions between different stages.
• Identify key performance indicators (KPIs) such as defect rate, production cycle time,
throughput, and resource utilization.
2. Developing a Model:
• Create a mathematical model that represents the production process. This model should
capture the flow of materials, the operation of machines, and the factors affecting product
quality and production efficiency.
• Use discrete event simulation (DES) techniques to model the production line. DES is
particularly suitable for modeling complex systems with discrete, sequential events.
• Incorporate stochastic elements to account for variability in processing times, equipment
failures, and other uncertainties.
3. Validation and Calibration:
• Validate the model by comparing its output with historical data from the production line.
This ensures that the model accurately reflects the behavior of the real system.
• Calibrate the model by adjusting parameters or refining assumptions to improve its
accuracy.
4. Optimization:
• Once the model is validated, use it to identify opportunities for optimization.
• Conduct "what-if" analysis to evaluate the impact of changes to parameters or processes
on key performance indicators.
• Apply optimization algorithms to find the best combination of parameters that minimize
defects and maximize efficiency. This could involve techniques such as genetic
algorithms, simulated annealing, or gradient descent.
5. Sensitivity Analysis:
• Perform sensitivity analysis to understand how changes in different parameters affect the
overall performance of the production process.
• Identify critical factors that have the greatest impact on KPIs and prioritize efforts to
improve them.
6. Continuous Improvement:
• Implement changes based on the insights gained from the simulation model.
• Monitor the production process and collect new data to update the model and refine the
optimization strategies.
• Use the model as a decision support tool for ongoing process improvement initiatives.
7. Scenario Planning:
• Use the simulation model to explore different scenarios, such as changes in demand,
equipment upgrades, or process redesigns.
• Evaluate the resilience of the production system to disruptions and develop contingency
plans to mitigate risks.
By following these steps, you can use modeling and simulation techniques to analyze and optimize the
production process, leading to reduced defects, increased efficiency, and improved overall performance.

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University of Poonch Rawalakot

Department of Computer and Science and IT

Subject: Modelling and Simulation

Here's a simple Python code to implement this method:

# Number of random points

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