6-2 What Factors Influence the Size of the Human Population?

-The Human Population Can Grow, Decline, or Remain Fairly Stable

The basics of global population change are quite simple. If there are more births than deaths during a
given period of time, the earth’s population increases, and when the reverse is true, it decreases. When
the number of births equals the number of deaths during a particular time period, population size does
not change.

Human populations grow or decline in particular countries, cities, or other areas through the interplay of
three factors: births (fertility), deaths (mortality), and migration.

We can calculate population change of an area by subtracting the number of people leaving a
population (through death and emigration) from the number entering it (through birth and immigration)
during a specified period of time (usually one year). Instead of using the total numbers of births and
deaths per year, population experts (demographers) use the birth rate, or crude birth rate (the number
of live births per 1,000 people in a population in a given year), and the death rate, or crude death rate
(the number of deaths per 1,000 people in a population in a given year).

-Women Are Having Fewer Babies but Not Few Enough to Stabilize the World’s Population

A key factor affecting human population growth and size is the total fertility rate (TFR): the average
number of children born to women in a population during their reproductive years.

-■ CASE STUDY

The U.S. Population

Is Growing Rapidly

■ CASE STUDY
The U.S. Population

Is Growing Rapidly

The population of the United States grew from 76 million in 1900 to 307 million in 2009, despite
oscillations in the country’s TFR (Figure 6-4) and birth rates. It took the country 139 years to add its first
100 million people, 52 years to add another 100 million by 1967, and only 39 years to add the third 100
million by 2006. During the period of high birth rates between 1946 and 1964, known as the baby boom,
79 million people were added to the U.S. population. At the peak of the baby boom in 1957, the average
TFR was 3.7 children per woman.

In 2008, as in most years since 1972, it has been at or below 2.1 children per woman, compared to 1.6 in
China in 2009.

The drop in the TFR has slowed the rate of population growth in the United States. But the country’s
population is still growing faster than those of all other developed countries and that of China, and it is
not close to leveling off. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, about 2.14 million people were added to
the U.S. population in 2009. About 1.24 million of these people were added because there were that
many more births than deaths. About 900,000 migrated into the United States.
In addition to the fourfold increase in population growth since 1900, some amazing changes in lifestyles
took place in the United States during the 20th century which led to dramatic increases in per capita
resource use and a much larger U.S. ecological footprint.

In 1907, the three leading causes of death in the United States were pneumonia, tuberculosis, and
diarrhea.

In terms of environmental impact per person, many analysts consider the United States to be by far the
world’s most overpopulated country, mostly because of its high rate of resource use per person. And if
U.S. Census Bureau projections are correct, by 2050 there will be about 132 million more Americans.

-Several Factors Affect Birth Rates and Fertility Rates

Many factors affect a country’s average birth rate and TFR.

1. The importance of children as a part of the labor force, especially in developing countries.
2. Another economic factor is the cost of raising and educating children. Birth and fertility rates tend to
be lower in developed countries, where raising children is much more costly because they do not enter
the labor force until they are in their late teens or twenties.
3. The availability of, or lack of, private and public pension systems can influence the decision of some
couples on how many children to have, especially the poor in developing countries. Pensions reduce a
couple’s need to have many children to help support them in old age.

4. Urbanization plays a role. People living in urban areas usually have better access to family planning
services and tend to have fewer children than do those living in rural areas.

5. Another important factor is the educational and employment opportunities available for women.
Total fertility rates tend to be low when women have access to education and paid employment outside
the home.

6. Average age at marriage (or, more precisely, the average age at which a woman has her first child)
also plays a role.

7. Birth rates and TFRs are also affected by the availability of legal abortions.

8. Also, the availability of reliable birth control methods allows women to control the number and
spacing of the children they have.

9. Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms also play a role. In some countries, these factors favor
large families and strongly oppose abortion and some forms of birth control.

- Several Factors Affect Death Rates

The rapid growth of the world’s population over the past 100 years is not primarily the result of a rise in
the birth rate. Instead, it has been caused largely by a decline in death rates, especially in developing
countries.

Two useful indicators of the overall health of people in a country or region are

1. life expectancy (the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live)

2. infant mortality rate (the number of babies out of every 1,000 born who die before their first
birthday).

Between 1900 and 2009, life expectancy at birth in the United States increased from 47 to 78 years and,
by 2050, is projected to reach 82 years. In the world’s poorest countries, however, life expectancy is 49
years or less and may fall further in some countries because of more deaths from AIDS and internal
strife.
Infant mortality is viewed as one of the best measures of a society’s quality of life because it reflects a
country’s general level of nutrition and health care. A high infant mortality rate usually indicates
insufficient food (undernutrition), poor nutrition (malnutrition), and a high incidence of infectious
disease (usually from drinking contaminated water and having weakened disease resistance due to
undernutrition and malnutrition).

Three factors helped to keep the U.S. infant mortality rate higher than it could be:

1. inadequate health care for poor women during pregnancy and for their babies after birth;

2. drug addiction among pregnant women;

3. a high birth rate among teenagers (although this rate dropped by about 40% between 1991 and
2008).

-Migration Affects an Area’s Population Size

The third factor in population change is migration: the movement of people into (immigration) and out
of (emigration) specific geographic areas.

Most people migrating from one area or country to another seek jobs and economic improvement. But
religious persecution, ethnic conflicts, political oppression, wars, and certain types of environmental
degradation such as soil erosion and water and food shortages drive some to migrate. According to a
U.N. study and a 2008 study by environmental scientist Norman Myers, there were at least 40 million
environmental refugees in 2008 and a million more are added each year.

Projected Climate Change and Environmental Refugees

Environmental scientist Norman Myers warns that if the world’s climate changes as projected during
this century, the number of environmental refugees—people who have to leave their homes because of
water or food shortages, drought, flooding, or other crises caused mostly by climate change—could soar
to 250 million or more before the end of this century.

-The United States: A Nation of Immigrants

Since 1820, the United States has admitted almost twice as many immigrants and refugees as all other
countries combined. The annual number of legal immigrants (including refugees) has varied among
different periods because of changes in immigration laws and rates of economic growth. Currently, legal
and illegal immigration account for about 42% of the country’s annual population growth.

There is controversy over whether to reduce legal immigration to the United States. Some analysts
would accept new entrants only if they can support themselves, arguing that providing legal immigrants
with public services makes the United States a magnet for the world’s poor.

Polls show that almost 60% of the U.S. public strongly supports reducing legal immigration. There is also
intense political controversy over what to do about illegal immigration.

Those opposed to reducing current levels of legal immigration argue that it would diminish the historical
role of the United States as a place of opportunity for the world’s poor and oppressed. They also argue
that it would take away from the cultural diversity that has been a hallmark of American culture since
the country’s beginnings.