FX Fundamental Drivers March 1, 2024

15/03/24

FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS REPORT

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FX Fundamental Drivers March 1, 2024

Table of Contents

United States Dollar [USD] ........................................................................3

Euro [EUR] .................................................................................................4
Great Bri sh Pound [GBP] .........................................................................5
Japanese Yen [JPY] ....................................................................................6
Australian Dollar [AUD] .............................................................................7
New Zealand Dollar [NZD] .........................................................................8
Canadian Dollar [CAD]...............................................................................9
Swiss Franc [CHF] ....................................................................................10

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FX Fundamental Drivers March 1, 2024

United States Dollar [USD]

Fundamental Outlook: Bearish

Baseline
Last week Jerome Powell spoke and said that the Fed was not ‘far from being con dent to cut rates’. This has led to some
choppy moves in the USD. The USD found some support this week on a rmer CPI print, PPI print, and stronger jobless data.
This eventually led to the USD strengthening, but it is s ll quite ‘choppy’ trade. So, markets are in a state of uncertainty -
will the Fed signal higher, for longer rates, at the Fed mee ng next week or will they move more dovishly in line with
Powell’s con dence that rate cuts are ‘not far’ away. The big USD bearish bias remains (the Fed are moving towards cuts) .
In the near term markets want to know how many rate cuts do the Fed see ahead? is it s ll three as last communicated at the
last dot plot?
Possible Bullish Surprises Possible Bearish Surprises
We expect extremely good growth, in a on or jobs data to We expect extremely bad growth, in a on or jobs data to
trigger short-term bullish reac ons in the USD. There are trigger short-term bearish reac ons in the USD. There are
other bullish drivers for the USD, but we are only focusing on other bearish drivers for the USD, but we are only focusing on
the following for next week: the following for next week:
A ‘higher for longer dot plot from the Fed will likely li the A move towards 4 or more rate cuts to come this year from
USD (but won’t change the big picture for USD bearishness) the Fed’s dot plot will be a dovish driver for the USD and
likely accelerate USD selling.
A big miss in the Service PMIs will likely weaken the USD.

Bigger Picture
This remains a two way, data dependent market for short term trading, even though the big picture remains USD bearish.
The key focus this week is will the Fed change the dot plot? Market’s don’t expect a change in rates and they do expect rate
cuts this year. However, the pace of those cuts is what will be most signi cant for the USD next week. The bearish base case
remains with the Fed and STIR markets all seeing 3 rate cuts ahead this year.

Week Ahead Highlights

Monday -
Tuesday -
Wednesday Interest Rate Mee ng
Thursday Unemployment Claims, Manufacturing, Services Flash PMIs
Friday -

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 FX Fundamental Drivers March 1, 2024

Euro [EUR]
Fundamental Outlook:Weak Bearish

Baseline
The last ECB mee ng was as expected and rates were kept the same at 4%. The ECB revised growth and in a on lower, but
only in line with expecta ons. In the press conference Lagarde said that the ECB is more con dent of hi ng it’s in a on goal
and will know a lot more by June. The expecta ons of a June rate cut was hinted at through this comment and was bang in
line with expecta ons. Lagarde also noted that the ECB are ‘not there yet on in a on’. The ECB s ll remain data dependent
and incoming in a on data and wage data will be crucial. However, a June rate cut is the base case. The latest HICP
(In a on) reading was slightly higher than expecta ons, but s ll a fall from the prior 2.8% reading. The core was at 3.1%
(down from 3.3% prior), so in a on is on a sustainable downward trend. Q1 wage data is seen as a crucial metric to decide
on the pace of ECB rate cuts. Nego ated wage rates of Q4 came in at 4.46% vs 4.69% prior and that was in line with
expecta ons and Lagarde stressed that there are signs that growth in wages are star ng to moderate. STIR markets see a 16%
chance of an ECB April 11 cut, slightly higher than last week.

Possible Bullish Surprises Possible Bearish Surprises

Given the EUR’s DXY weigh ng, be er overall risk sen ment Given the EUR’s DXY weigh ng, poor risk sen ment that
that pressures the USD should be suppor ve for the EUR. supports the USD should be nega ve for the EUR. There are a
There are a number of poten al bullish drivers for the EUR, number of poten al bearish drivers for the EUR, but we are
but we are only focusing on the following for next week: only focusing on the following for next week:

A surprise print higher in Euro PMI prints or German ZEW Please note that there are other bearish drivers for the EUR
economic sen ment this week can li the EURO as it pushes and that there are no obvious areas to focus on for next
back against the pressure for ECB rate cuts. week aside from the drivers men oned above.

Bigger Picture
Euro area in a on is clearly falling lower and the latest HICP reading con rmed that. Despite, the recent ECB hold on rates,
the weak bearish outlook remains. In a on forecasts were dropped to 2.6% from 2.7% for 2024, 2.1% for 2.3% for 2025 and
2.0% from 2.1% for 2026. The near term growth forecast was revised lower by the ECB for 2024 down to 0.6% from 0.8% prior
re ec ng the last GDP print saw the Eurozone narrowly avoid a technical recession with a at reading of 0.0% for the quarter
vs -0.1% prior. However, Germany has fallen into a recession and German IFO data was so and so was manufacturing data
for PMIs. The ECB mee ng this week saw Chris ne Lagarde a rm the idea of a June rate cut (expected) and has kept the stats
quo. However, expect the EUR to remain very sensi ve to incoming growth and in a on data, and especially Q1 wage data
(the ECB signalled wage data sensi vity in the statement) but also watch the ECB communica on. A rst rate cut in June is
s ll the base case, even a er a string of ECB speakers this week.

Week Ahead Highlights

Monday Final CPI
Tuesday German ZEW
Wednesday German PPI
Thursday Flash PMIs
Friday German IFO Business Climate

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 FX Fundamental Drivers March 1, 2024

Great British Pound [GBP]

Fundamental Outlook: Weak Bearish

Baseline
The Bank of England kept rates unchanged as expected at their last mee ng and also repeated that ‘policy will need to be
restric ve for an extended me’. Two MPC members voted for a rate hike (Haskell & Mann) which was a surprise. 6 members
voted for no change and 1 member for a rate cut (Dhingra). The latest in a on data was a surprise miss and that pressured
the GBP lower, but hasn’t changed the big picture. GDP was a surprise miss too, but again factored in despite giving the GBP
a li le nudge lower. The key data to focus on for the UK is labour market data, wage growth, and services in a on. A big
drop in any of these and the GBP should fall sharply. This week saw weaker UK employment data, but wages are s ll too high.
BoE Governor Bailey spoke this week and said that the key ques ons for the MPC are, ‘have in a onary pressures eased
enough so that it can begin to lower the Bank Rate’ and ‘how long should it keep rates at the current level’ The GBP remains
stretched to the upside in the CFTC report and we remain wai ng for the main weak bearish trend to resume.

Possible Bullish Surprises Possible Bearish Surprises

With the economic outlook s ll mostly bleak, any materially There are a number of poten al bearish drivers for the GBP,
be er-than-expected growth data could pose short-term but we are only focusing on the following for next
upside risks for Sterling. There are a number of other week.There are other bearish drivers for the GBP, but we are
poten al bullish drivers for the GBP, but we are only focusing focusing on the following,
on the following for next week.

If we see a big miss in the CPI data on Wednesday and/or a

Firm CPI on Wednesday and a hawkish leaning BoE on
dovish BoE that signal rate cuts then expect GBP weakness
Thursday both have the poten al to support the GBP next
as a slowing economy will bring forward rate cut hopes. See
week if we see a rm CPI print or a hawkish BoE mee ng.
the live webinar over the BoE mee ng for more details.
See the live webinar over the BoE mee ng for more details.

Bigger Picture
The fundamentals for sterling remain weak bearish despite the BoE taking a more restric ve stance and stressing in a on
concerns at their last mee ng. The GBP has shown strength at an index level over the last few weeks on a natural pullback,
but markets will be poised to resume GBP selling should the data deteriorate. The key data points to focus on is wage
growth data, labour market data and services in a on . Also note that Haskell and Mann are the two hawkish dissenters
in the MPC. Mann spoke this week on Monday March 11 saying that the BoE ‘has a long way to go for in a on pressures
to be consistent with the 2% target’ STIR markets s ll see around 75+ bps of cuts this year, and currently only see a 3%
chance (up from 2% last week) of a rate cut for the March 21 mee ng. The GBP is vulnerable to weak data and in a on data
this week will be crucial…

Week Ahead Highlights

Monday -
Tuesday -
Wednesday CPI, PPI
Thursday PMIs & Bank Rate Mee ng
Friday Retail Sales

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 FX Fundamental Drivers March 1, 2024

Japanese Yen [JPY]

Fundamental Outlook: Weak bullish

Baseline
This week saw further reports sugges ng that the BoJ is leaning towards ending nega ve rates in March or April’s mee ng.
The result of the wage talks are posi ve and give the BoJ the green light to hike rates if they want to in the March mee ng.
However, economists and STIR markets are both s ll favouring an April exit for nega ve interest rates and not a March
exit. This means that a hike next week should be a hawkish surprise and li the JPY. However, the focus will quickly then turn
to the pace of coming rate hikes. As always, overall ows in US Treasury yields remains a very important considera on for the
JPY. Falling US10Y yields support Yen strength and vice versa.

Possible Bullish Surprises Possible Bearish Surprises

Catalysts that push US10Y lower (less hawkish Fed, lower core Any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed,
PCE, weaker US jobs) could trigger bullish reac ons from the higher Core US PCE, strong US jobs data) could pressure the
JPY. Any news from the BoJ that they have a de nite JPY lower. Any further acceptance of the ultra loose monetary
mescale to end the YCC policy should result in a bullish JPY policy stance is a con nual source of JPY weakness, so be
reac on. aware of this dynamic.

A rate hike of 0.10bps or more will be a surprise and li the A push back against an exit of nega ve interest rates in next
JPY, but watch for the forward guidance week’s March mee ng can weaken the JPY

Bigger Picture
The rst tally of the Spring Wage data is in from the largest union labour Rengo. Japanese unions are said to have won over
5% average in wage hike talks, which is more than enough to jus fy the BoJ exi ng nega ve interest rates. Whether the BoJ
hike next week or in April may impact the path of the JPY, with a March BoJ hike more likely to support the JPY next week.
However, the Deputy Governor Uchida said that it is hard to imagine a path of ‘con nuous rate hikes’ and the BoJ ‘won’t
aggressively hike rates even a er ending nega ve rates’.
Timing BoJ policy is a challenge with a number of false starts over the last 12 months, but now the needle looks like it is
shi ing at least for an ini al hike. The JPY is star ng to nd some buying from a very stretched short posi on in the CFTC
report.

Week Ahead Highlights

Monday Core Machinery ordeers(Sunday)
Tuesday BoJ rate decision
Wednesday Trade balance
Thursday Core CPI, Flash Manufacturing PMI.
Friday -

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 FX Fundamental Drivers March 1, 2024

Australian Dollar [AUD]

Fundamental Outlook: Weak bullish

Baseline
At the last mee ng the RBA stressed data dependency, encouragement the latest monthly CPI indicator had fallen, but
essen ally want more me to assess the impact of interest rate rates on demand, in a on and the labour market. The latest
monthly CPI indicator came in slightly below forecast again at 3.4% vs 3.6% expected, but it is s ll above the RBA target and
does not change the outlook. The latest CPI print saw a 4.1% print and the prior of 4.1% was revised up to 4.2%. for the
headline (down from 5.4% prior) and 4.2% for the core (down from 5.2% prior). RBA’s Governor Bullock said on February
14th that in a on is being persistent, par cularly in services, but is coming down. However, she can’t rule out the need for
further rate hikes. GDP came in around expecta ons this week and Chinese imports saw a move higher to 7.1% vs 1.9%
expected.
A key AUD driver is China, where the economic woes have been a nega ve for the AUD. However, the lower Chinese stocks
go the greater the promise of coming s mulus should be. It is important to note that the AUD has been heavily sold over
2023, so that means it is very vulnerable to sharp gains on any good news for China/global growth and the recent posi ve
risk outlook on China s mulus and the Nvidia earnings surge li ed the AUD.

Possible Bullish Surprises Possible Bearish Surprises

Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving could Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriora ng could
provide upside for the AUD. As a risk sensi ve currency, add addi onal pressure on the AUD. As a risk sensi ve
catalysts that causes big bouts of risk on sen ment could currency, catalysts that causes big bouts of risk o sen ment
trigger bullish reac ons in the AUD. Catalyst that triggers could trigger bearish reac ons in the AUD.Catalyst that
recovery in commodi es (China s mulus, new infrastructure triggers further weakness in commodi es (Reduc on of
projects in China, really solid Chinese economic data) should Chinese s mulus, worse than expected China data) could be
be suppor ve for the AUD. nega ve for the AUD
A hawkish RBA statement or strong labour data can A dovish RBA statement or, signalling coming rate cuts, or
strengthen the AUD. weak labour data can weaken the AUD

Bigger Picture
The latest monthly CPI indicator fell again to 3.4%m but that is s ll well above the RBA’s 2% target. The latest weaker
headline employment data (0.5K vs 30K expected) Australian Retail Sales at 1.1% vs 1.5% expected has taken a li le of the
pressure o the RBA. However, the big picture remains that in a on is s cky in Australia and Westpac warned that
January’s employment data should be interpreted carefully and they expected it to create a ‘nega ve rst impression’.
Westpac see the reality contrary to the latest weak employment print and see signs that the economy is on the up, so we
remain data dependent for the RBA. As a pro-cyclical currency, the AUD is usually very exposed to a slowdown in global
growth, which means any increase in expecta ons for slower growth in the US, EZ and UK this year can pose headwinds for
the AUD (Hence the large short posi on that has built up). However, the AUD has been heavily sold over recent months and
some recovery in the AUD against some weaker currencies can s ll be expected. Note that this is now coming into a seasonal
strong period for the AUD - Check out the New York webinar recording on March 13 for more details.

Week Ahead Highlights

Monday -
Tuesday Interest rate statement and decision
Wednesday Manufacturing & Services PMIs
Thursday Labour data
Friday -

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 FX Fundamental Drivers March 1, 2024

New Zealand Dollar [NZD]

Fundamental Outlook: Weak bullish

Baseline
Heading into the Feb 28th rate mee ng the NZD was supported on the recent views from ANZ, ASB and even Westpac now
that the RBNZ will be at least edging towards hiking rates. However, the RBNZ contradicted this view and revised their OCR
lower which gave the NZD a clear sell bias out of the event - see the cheat sheet for Feb 28th. Governor Orr said that the
RBNZ did discuss rate hikes, but there was strong consensus that current levels of rates were su cient. On March 01 Orr said
that the the economy is involving as an cipated and in a on expecta ons has declined, but he said it is s ll ‘too high’. The
NZD s ll has a stretched NZD long posi on see here. However, remember that the CFTC cut o point is on Tuesday , so some
of the NZD longs should have unwound now. The NZD will be very responsive to incoming in a on, employment and jobs
data. Economists surveyed on Thursday 22nd Feb see 27 out of 28 looking for no change in rates with one looking for a 25bps
hike. BNZ revised their Q1 in a on forecast higher this week to 4.2% for Q1 2024 and that is well above the RBNZ’s
projec ons of 3.8%.

Possible Bullish Surprises Possible Bearish Surprises

Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving could Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriora ng could
provide upside for the NZD. As a risk sensi ve currency, any add addi onal pressure on the NZD. As a risk sensi ve
catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sen ment could currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk o
trigger bullish reac ons in the NZD. Any catalyst that triggers sen ment could trigger bearish reac ons in the NZD. Any
recovery in commodi es (China s mulus, new infrastructure catalyst that triggers further weakness in commodi es
projects in China, really solid Chinese econ data) should be (Reduc on of Chinese s mulus, worse than expected China
suppor ve for the NZD. data) could be nega ve for the NZD.
Please note that there are other bullish drivers for the NZD Please note that there are other bearish drivers for the NZD
and that there are no obvious areas to focus on for next and that there are no obvious areas to focus on for next
week aside from the drivers men oned above. week aside from the drivers men oned above.

Bigger Picture
At the last rate mee ng the RBNZ held back from hiking rates and revised their OCR lower. However, the outlook for the NZD
is now more likely to be weakly bullish moving forward due to the fact that the US is probably more likely to cut rates before
the RBNZ. This should keep a mild NZDUSD buy bias as long as the path for US rate cuts s ll remains clear. Governor Orr said
on Thursday Feb 29th that the easing of interest rates will not happen any me soon. Incoming data will be super important
moving forward, but a mild bullish bias is not unreasonable for the me being. RBNZs Chief Economist Conway says (March
05) declines in core in a on are encouraging and rates need to stay restric ve for a sustained period and that the Fed cu ng
before the RBNZ could lead to weaker in a on. However, the ques on of how well the RBNZ is doing on in a on remains an
open ques on - con nue to expect in a on prints to move the NZD on out of consensus prints.

Week Ahead Highlights

Monday (Sunday - BusinessNZ Services Index)
Tuesday Consumer Sen ment
Wednesday GDP
Thursday Trade balance
Friday -

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 FX Fundamental Drivers March 1, 2024

Canadian Dollar [CAD]

Fundamental Outlook: Weakly Bearish

Baseline
The Bank of Canada once again kept rates unchanged at their March 06 mee ng and con nue to stress risks to the outlook
for In a on. The recent stronger GDP print was acknowledged by the BoC, but has not changed the outlook nor did the
recent CPI print at 2.9% y/y vs 3.3% forecast change the outlook. The BoC stated that shelter price s ll remains elevated and
that was the biggest contributor to in a on and Macklem said the BoC probably won’t get to 2% in a on this year in the
press conference. The BoC also stated that the Governing Council wants to see further and sustained easing in core in a on
and con nues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, in a on expecta ons, wage growth, and
corporate pricing behaviour
This remains a very data dependent outlook and Macklem has said that the BoC are going to take rate decisions one at a me
and the BoC will take their April decision in April when they have the bene t of more data. The weakly bearish CAD bias
remains and STIR markets now see a 20% chance of a 25bps rate cut at the April 10th mee ng.

Possible Bullish Surprises Possible Bearish Surprises

Catalysts that see upside in Oil (deteriora ng supply outlook, Catalysts that trigger downside in oil (deteriora ng demand
ease in demand fears, OPEC developments) could trigger outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints,
bullish CAD reac ons.As a risk sensi ve currency, any catalyst OPEC developments) could be a nega ve catalyst for the CAD
that causes big bouts of risk on sen ment could trigger as well.As a risk sensi ve currency, any catalyst that causes
bullish reac ons in the CAD. There are other bullish drivers big bouts of risk o sen ment could trigger bearish reac ons
for the CAD, but we are only focusing on the following for in the CAD. There are other bearish drivers for the CAD, but
next week: we are only focusing on the following for next week:
Expect surprise strong CPI or retails sales data to li the Expect surprise weak CPI/retail sales data to weaken the
CAD CAD

Bigger Picture
The bigger picture outlook for the CAD is now weakly bearish. Given the clear risks to growth the economic outlook remains
uncertain, but the path of rates will s ll ul mately be decided by the incoming data from here. The Bank of Canada is closely
monitoring higher wages (5.7% y/y for December and 5.3% y/y for Jan) which represent higher price pressures and the BoC
have warned that growing wage pressure is an in a onary force. The BoC will remain vigilant to rising in a on and GDP,
in a on, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour remain very important data points. Any strong rise in oil prices will
contribute to the strength of the Canadian dollar (CAD) and vice versa. The CAD is very ‘neutral’ right now In the near term
so look for two way short term opportuni es par cularly as jobs, in a on, and GDP data is released. STIR markets s ll see
around three 25bps rate cuts coming this year.

Week Ahead Highlights

Monday -
Tuesday CPI
Wednesday -
Thursday -
Friday Retail Sales

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 FX Fundamental Drivers March 1, 2024

Swiss Franc [CHF]

Fundamental Outlook: Bearish bias

Baseline
The SNB took a more neutral stance at their last mee ng in December with SNB’s Jordan saying they are no longer focussed
on selling FX and that ‘addi onal rate hikes from the Bank are not necessary’. The in a on data for January out from
Switzerland was as surprise miss to the downside at 1.3% y/y vs 1.7% expected. The latest print for February came in at 1.2%
vs 1.1% expected but the rental price pressure remains. SNB’s Schlegel recognised recently that the CHF has fallen in value in
both real and nominal terms, so we could start to see some of the recent CHF selling slow. SNB’s Thomas Jordan is due to step
down this year at the end of September
STIR markets now see a 37% (down from 44% last week) chance of a March rate cut. CHF selling may start to slow now, but
watch for rally sellers in any moves higher for the CHF.

Possible Hawkish Surprises Possible Dovish Surprises

Any incoming data or SNB comments that causes markets to The SNB has not been trying to devalue the CHF through
price in even more aggressive policy from the bank could sight deposits. Any dras c apprecia on could spark some
trigger bullish reac ons in the CHF.As a risk sensi ve interven on and would be a bearish catalyst. As a risk
currency, any catalyst that causes big bouts of risk o sensi ve currency, any catalyst that causes big bouts of risk
sen ment could trigger bullish reac ons in the CHF. on sen ment could trigger bearish reac ons in the CHF

If the SNB revise growth and in a on higher then look for If the SNB cut rates and/or revise growth and/or in a on
CHF apprecia on lower then expect CHF deprecia on

Bigger Picture
The bias for the CHF is now dovish. The SNB revised down their in a on forecasts to 2.1% in 2023, 1.9% in 2024 and 1.6% in
2025, compared with 2.2%, 2.2% and 1.9% from it’s previous mee ng. Furthermore, while the Swiss Na onal Bank (SNB)
maintains its willingness to be ac ve in the foreign exchange market as needed, there is a notable shi in its approach.
Previously, the SNB engaged in purchasing Swiss francs to bolster its value, aiming to mi gate imported in a on but
inadvertently impac ng the compe veness of domes c exporters. The current indica on suggests a departure from a
preference for a stronger Swiss franc, and there is a possibility of the SNB resuming currency sales. Such a shi could
contribute to suppor ng exports and fostering economic growth in Switzerland, marking a signi cant change in the SNB's
stance. The latest CPI data for February showed that rental price pressure remains, but the broad expecta on for CHF
weakness remains, but note that some of the recent CHF moves may be ge ng stretched now. The SNB mee ng will be in
key focus this week and a surprise rate cut can’t be ruled out, but forward guidance most likely to dominate the CHF’s
movements this week.

Week Ahead Highlights

Monday -
Tuesday -
Wednesday -
Thursday SNB rate Decision
Friday -

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