1329-Article Text-2597-1-10-20220927
1329-Article Text-2597-1-10-20220927
1329-Article Text-2597-1-10-20220927
Doi: 10.14207/ejsd.2022.v11n3p149
Abstract
Economic and Monetary Union is the result of progressive economic integration that includes
collective regulation for the free movement of goods, services, labor, capital, and products. Economic
and Monetary Union presupposes a common currency and market, but also a monetary policy
coordinated by the European Central Bank, which has the role of ensuring economic stability. In this
context, the countries wishing to join must be prepared to deal with possible economic imbalances,
this being possible through the existence of a high level of economic development. Through this
paper, we want to identify the evolution of the nominal convergence criteria established by the
provisions of the Maastricht Treaty to identify the level of readiness of the Romanian economy for
integration into the Economic and Monetary Union.
1. Introduction
Romania joined the European Union on January 1, 2007, and since then it is a
state with a derogation from the adoption of the single currency, being conditioned by the
fulfillment of the nominal convergence criteria found in the Maastricht Treaty. Over time,
there have been several targets for joining the Eurozone, but the results recorded and the
economic situation in those periods did not allow this, which led to the postponement of
the accession decision. In this context, to improve the economic situation, in 2019, the
substantiation report for the adoption of the single currency was published by the
“National Commission for the Substantiation of the National Plan for the adoption of the
euro”, which includes a detailed analysis of the economic situation and possible solutions
on the period of preparation and measures necessary for accession to the Economic and
Monetary Union. The adoption of the single currency is an important step after accession
to the European Union, and its success depends on mobilizing political and social forces
to continue the reforms needed to meet the criteria of nominal convergence for economic
development and increased competitiveness. All of this can ensure the economy's ability
to cope with any pressures and risks that may arise from the loss of the imbalance
adjustment tool offered by monetary policy. Also, the adoption of the single currency
implies obtaining some benefits, but we must not neglect the fact that this process can
lead to more shocks and risks if the Romanian economy is not ready to take this step, but
also due to the fact that two important instruments are lost macroeconomic adjustment,
namely, the autonomy of monetary policy and exchange rate flexibility. In this context, the
role of nominal convergence criteria is to create the fiscal discipline needed to ensure the
sustainability of public finances and to maintain an economic environment conducive to
economic development, in which monetary policy can ensure the fundamental objective
of price stability. Precisely for these reasons, the accession of European states to the
Eurozone is conditioned by the fulfillment of the nominal convergence criteria.
The motivation for choosing this theme is given by the topical issue it represents, having
a significant impact on the process of joining the Eurozone. At the same time, this topic
is relevant, because it is a controversial topic in the current context, as well as necessary
for the evolution of the structure of the Romanian economy. The onset of the health crisis
generated by the Covid-19 pandemic has led to a widening of macroeconomic imbalances
through a sharp increase in government spending compared to revenues that have declined
in the context of declining economic activity. This unfavorable situation has produced
uncertainty about the possibility of joining the Eurozone, given the negative effects on
nominal convergence. Thus, in the current context, it is necessary to discuss more and
more about the process of adopting the single currency in order to identify the necessary
measures to facilitate this process.
The main objective of this paper is to identify the level of fulfillment of the nominal
convergence criteria in terms of identifying the possibility of joining the Eurozone, after
the moderation of economic pressures following the Covid-19 pandemic.
This paper is structured in several distinct parts, as follows: (i) in the first part is the
introduction, (ii) in the second part of the literature review, (iii) in the third part of the
research methodology, (iv) in the fourth part the analysis of the macroeconomic indicators
on public debt, budget deficit, inflation rate, long-term interest rate and exchange rate, (v)
and in the last part, the conclusions are found.
Over time, European authorities have developed several conventions and treaties
to regulate the functioning of the Eurozone. Thus, the European institutions have become
responsible for overseeing European countries in the convergence process, and one of the
most important treaties adopted is the Maastricht Treaty, according to which European
countries must abandon their own currency and adopt a single currency when the situation
allows them to make this transition. In the literature, convergence is defined as a process
of narrowing the gap between states with different levels of development. The Maastricht
Treaty established the criteria for nominal convergence to ensure the readiness of
European states to adopt a single currency, and their accession will not cause imbalances
or risk for those countries or for the Eurozone as a whole. These criteria relate to pricing
stability, exchange rate stability, long-term interest rate, and sustainable and sound public
finance. Specifically, the nominal convergence criterion of price stability assumes that the
inflation rate during a year does not exceed more than 1.5 pp. The inflation rate of the first
three European countries achieved the best results, while the criterion on the long-term
interest means that it does not exceed in a year by more than 2 pp. the rate of the first
three European countries with the best results on price stability. The indicator through
which the convergence of interest rates can be assessed is represented by the dynamics of
long-term government bond yields.
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E. F. Matei, I. M. Mindrican 151
Regarding the exchange rate criterion, it must be within the fluctuation margins of MCS
II (Exchange Rate Mechanism) for at least two years without significant deviations and
not devalue the bilateral central exchange rate of its currency against the euro. in the same
period. The purpose of this mechanism is to stabilize the currencies of non-euro area states
by establishing by common agreement a central and fixed, but adjustable exchange rate
against the euro, as well as a standard fluctuation range of +/- 15%. As significant progress
on convergence is made, a narrower range of fluctuations can be established. Regarding
public finance, the public debt criterion assumes that it does not exceed 60% of GDP,
while the budget deficit criterion assumes that it does not exceed 3% of GDP to ensure
the sustainability of public finances. Numerous studies on the reference values of the
nominal convergence criteria are identified in the literature. Specifically, the authors
(Lewis, 2007) and (Dobrinsky, 2006) believe that the integration of the latter states has led
to a decrease in the reference limit, while the author (Jonas, 2007) considers that the
existence of a single reference limit for all states it is not relevant, but rather it would be
appropriate to set two benchmarks depending on the stage of the business cycle of the
countries preparing to adopt the single currency. However, the benchmarks of nominal
convergence will not change, and European countries must make the necessary efforts to
meet the convergence criteria to adopt the single currency. Regarding the effects of the
pandemic, the European Court of Auditors' document (2020) states that this may lead to
budgetary divergence between European countries, and the Commission is of the opinion
that public debt will increase sharply, especially in countries already facing a high level, this
situation being negatively influenced by the decrease of the GDP. In addition, nominal
convergence is structured in three main phases which consist of the pre-accession and
post-accession periods to the European Union, but also euroization (Iancu, 2009).
Romania is currently in the post-accession phase and will remain in this phase until it
adopts the euro, and in this context, it must make every effort to adopt a single currency,
while meeting the convergence criteria. Moreover, at this stage, the degree of freedom is
significantly restricted due to the imposition of convergence criteria in the conditions of
total liberalization of capital flows and trade. This situation has led to several debates on
exchange rate stability and inflation reduction, known as the Balassa-Samuelson effect,
which will be discussed in detail in another paper.
Finally, the adoption of the single currency brings both benefits and costs for Romania,
but from the point of view of convergence criteria, the costs will be lower as there is a
lower level of divergence between trade structures and economics with those of the
Eurozone, but also if there is a strong correlation between business cycles (Marinaș, 2013).
Most of the studies found a focus on real convergence because there must be a high level
of synchronization of countries on the road to the monetary optimum. Lack of
synchronization can lead to high discrepancies between European economies (Artis,
2003), but nevertheless, nominal convergence should not be neglected, because without
meeting these criteria, countries cannot adopt a single currency. An example of the
importance of convergence criteria is given by the PIIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland,
Italy, Spain, and Greece), which faced strong imbalances with the onset of the international
financial crisis in 2008.
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152 European Journal of Sustainable Development (2022), 11, 3, 149-166
3. Research Methodology
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E. F. Matei, I. M. Mindrican 153
During the analyzed period, the public debt was within the imposed limit, but nevertheless,
the registered level is high for the Romanian economy, and the sustainable level is 40-45%
of GDP so that the economy is not exposed to risks.
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154 European Journal of Sustainable Development (2022), 11, 3, 149-166
the indexation of pensions by 5%. Regarding the period 2016-2020, we can observe the
upward trend of the budget deficit which was influenced by the unfavorable budgetary
position aimed at increasing public spending in the field of long-term care and health,
those with wages and currents, along with raising old-age pensions. The sharp deepening
of the budget deficit in 2019 occurred due to expenditures made in the second half of the
year to make payments based on court decisions to settle financial obligations, reduce
taxes, increase pensions, make payments of about 1.3 billion lei representing capital and
operating expenses of the territorial administrative units and to lower receipts from the
dividends of companies under the state control.
The onset of the health crisis has led to a sharp increase in public spending, especially in
the field of health and the implementation of measures to reduce the negative effects of
the Covid-19 pandemic that have led to a significant reduction in revenues. Thus, based
on the increase in public spending and borrowing, the level of public debt has risen sharply
this year, considerably exceeding the limit imposed by the provisions of the Maastricht
Treaty. In this context, Romania managed to meet this criterion of nominal convergence
only in the period 2013-2018 and starting with 2019 the situation has changed significantly,
the deficit limit of 3% of GDP being exceeded.
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E. F. Matei, I. M. Mindrican 155
by the authorities, which consisted mainly in improving the economic situation by reducing
future risks. In the period 2015-2016, for the first time since the transition to a market
economy, there was a negative level of inflation in the context of keeping inflation
expectations low, reducing MTPL policies and the price of tobacco products, but also
reducing VAT rate from 24% to 20%. After this period, more precisely in 2017-2018, there
was an increase in the inflation rate due to the improvement of the economic situation,
the increase in food and fuel prices, the depreciation of the national currency, while in
2019 there was a decrease in the inflation rate due to decreases in the price of natural gas
and volatile products, starting with July 2019.
Regarding the impact of the health crisis generated by the Covid-19 pandemic on the
inflation rate in 2020, it led to a decrease in inflation by affecting the hotel sector, the
transport sector, but also by lowering prices for energy products. At the same time, a
strong impact was given by the significant decrease in the price of oil due to the sharp
decrease in demand in the context of the restriction of economic activity and work at
home. However, during the analyzed period, Romania predominantly registered a higher
level of inflation rate compared to the limit imposed in the Maastricht Treaty, which led
to the nonfulfillment of this nominal convergence indicator. The exception to this period
is the years 2014-2017, in which the level of the inflation rate was lower compared to the
level recorded by the three best performing European states plus 1.5 pp. It can also be
seen the tendency to reduce the level of the inflation rate in the last part of the analyzed
period, which indicates an improvement of the price stability trend at the level of the
Romanian economy.
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156 European Journal of Sustainable Development (2022), 11, 3, 149-166
external markets. The significant increase in the long-term interest rate was due to the
intensification of the financial crisis in 2008 and its spread in domestic markets. After 2009
(figure no. 4), there is a trend of a gradual decrease in the long-term interest rate, in the
context of the improved outlook on the inflation rate in line with the decrease in the risk
premium, the decline in economic activity and the easing of market conditions. monetary.
In recent years, there has also been an increase in the long-term interest rate in the context
of uncertainty about the outlook for the economy and a higher level of risk aversion.
Regarding the observance of the limit of this criterion provided in the Maastricht Treaty,
the Romanian economy managed only in the period 2013-2016, being significantly
influenced by the economic context.
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158 European Journal of Sustainable Development (2022), 11, 3, 149-166
(e) 121.9 million lei granted to professionals and persons who had concluded employment
agreements based on Law 1/2005. Moreover, the increase in budget expenditures from
2020 was significantly influenced by expenditures on goods and services on additional
payments for medicines, health materials, and other products needed to diagnose and treat
the population infected with Sars-Cov-2, which increased by 6, 9% compared to the
previous year (57.05 billion lei in 2020). In addition, medical emergency products were
purchased, including thermal scanners to reduce the spread of the new virus, amounting
to 561.2 million lei. Thus, the structure of budget expenditures has changed significantly
compared to 2019 amid the Covid-19 pandemic, with the authorities focusing on limiting
the spread of the virus and treating infected patients.
Another effect of the pandemic on nominal convergence is given by the significant
deterioration of the fiscal position in 2020, which, in the context of the amplification of
the external imbalance and economic contraction, generated pressure on the risk premium.
The increase of the risk premium on the background of instability determines the increase
of long-term interest rates, the depreciation of the exchange rate, and the strong variation
of the inflation rate between positive and negative values. This unfavorable situation will
affect the nominal convergence and implicitly the process of adopting the single currency,
which will have a significant impact on financing costs and the pace of economic recovery.
Regarding the real dynamics of GDP (figure no. 6), it can be seen how it has registered a
downward trend in recent years, being strongly influenced by the measures taken by the
authorities to reduce the negative effects of the pandemic. This trend of real GDP
dynamics has a significant impact on long-term interest rates and prices, in the sense of
increasing them. In this context, the fiscal-budgetary policy of 2020 focused on combating
the negative effects of the crisis generated by the Covid-19 pandemic, and after
overcoming it, measures will be considered to support the economic recovery. As can be
seen, the economic situation and public spending in recent years, and especially in 2020,
have had a negative impact on nominal convergence indicators that do not meet the limits
imposed by the Maastricht Treaty.
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Table no. 1: Public debt and factors that can influence public debt.
As a result, the adoption of the euro represents an incentive for Romania, as a member
state of the European Union, but at the same time, an economic reason for the states in
the euro area so as to maintain an appropriate macroeconomic level and according to the
requirements presented in the Maastricht Treaty.
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160 European Journal of Sustainable Development (2022), 11, 3, 149-166
Figure no. 7: Model of public debt with the factors that affect it.
The econometric program Eviews reports for each independent and constant variable, the
standard error of the coefficient, the t-statistic and its associated probability. In most
situations, we work at the relevance level of 5%, and in the situation where the probabilities
of the t-statistical test are lower than this level, the coefficients are considered statistically
significant. As for the Durbin Watson statistical test, it tests the serial correlation of errors.
If the errors are not correlated then the value of this test will be around 2. Consequently,
according to the results obtained, this indicator registering the value of 0.67 reflects the
fact that the errors are not correlated.
After processing the data in Eviews, the regression model has the following form:
DEBT= C+INF+BUDGET DEFICIT+ ʊ
DEBT= 36.65 C -3.04 INF- 1.70 BUDGET DEFICIT
Among the assumptions of the multiple regression model is that no independent variable
is a linear function of other independent variables, more precisely there is no
multicollinearity problem, which means that there should be a relationship between public
debt, budget deficit and inflation linear. Also, in the work of the author Bucevska (2009),
it is stated that if the result of the t-statistic test of the model exceeds the selected critical
value, which means that the level of the estimated coefficient is statistically significant,
more precisely the coefficient is different from 0. At the same time, the more the
probability value is higher, the independent variables, less significant or more precisely, if
the probabilities are greater than 5% then the variables are insignificant, according to
Hansen (2016). In this sense, according to the results obtained it can be concluded that
the probability of an independent variable has a value of less than 5%, which means that
it is significant and has a strong impact on public debt. Specifically, this reflects the fact
that inflation exerts a major impact on Romania's government debt.
As a result of the previously obtained results, it can be concluded that the entire economic
context is uncertain and ambiguous, given the fact that the influence of the budget balance
is reduced on the level of public debt in Romania, more precisely, it has a smaller influence
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The graphical representation of the actual value of the dependent variable, its estimated
value and the errors in the regression was obtained using the Eviews econometric program,
as previously mentioned, starting from the estimated equation of the dependent and
independent variables by selecting the option View/ Actual, Fitted, Residual/ Actual,
Fitted, Residual/Graph.
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According to the results obtained based on this test, it can be seen that for the error lags
there is no serial correlation of errors because the value of the autocorrelation coefficient
does not exceed the dotted range.
Next, through the View/Residual Diagnostic/ Correlogram residual option, the
autocorrelation of the quadratic errors of the regression equation is tested according to the
same principles as testing the autocorrelation of the errors. Thus, if there is autocorrelation
of the squared errors, this fact indicates the existence of heteroscedasticity. Taking into
account the results obtained from the present research, the idea that there is no
heteroscedasticity of quadratic errors can be exposed.
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E. F. Matei, I. M. Mindrican 163
by Russia and the economic context of the Romanian state, it can be stated that the level
of government debt will increase, and the macroeconomic picture that leads us towards
joining the euro will be quite uncertain and unlikely for the next few years.
5. Conclusions
To fulfill the provisions found in the Maastricht Treaty, Romania must ensure the
sustainable development of the economy. Regarding the analyzed period 2007-2020, the
Romanian economy fully met only the criterion of public debt, which recorded in the
period 2007-2019 a level below 40% of GDP, and in 2020 reached 47.3% of GDP in the
context of the sharp rise in public spending to mitigate the negative effects of the Covid-
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164 European Journal of Sustainable Development (2022), 11, 3, 149-166
19 pandemic crisis. The criterion on the budget deficit was met only in the period 2013-
2018 and in the period 2014-2017 the criterion on the inflation rate which registered a
significant decrease due to the reduction of indirect tax rates, reaching an all-time low in
2016.
Regarding the exchange rate, it did not participate in the period analyzed in MCS II
(Exchange Rate Mechanism), continuing to trade without assuming a central parity against
the euro, and for this reason, it was not possible to analyze the inclusion of this criterion
within the range established by the Maastricht Treaty. Regarding the criterion on the long-
term interest rate, it was met only in the period 2013-2016. According to the analysis, it
can be seen that in recent years there has been significant progress in Romania, but
nevertheless, the results recorded are not sufficient for the transition to the Eurozone. For
this reason, after reducing the negative effects generated by the Covid-19 pandemic, future
fiscal measures must focus on economic development and improving macroeconomic
indicators.
According to the provisions of the Maastricht Treaty, a country preparing to adopt the
single currency must meet the criteria of nominal convergence, but these are not enough,
because without structural and institutional compatibility, a balanced economy with
convergence long-term correspondent, the accession process will not benefit the country
concerned, and even more so that the economy will become a peripheral economy at the
level of the Eurozone, less flexible and unable to reduce or eliminate its shocks
independently. faces. In this context, a future direction of research may be to analyze the
real convergence criteria on potential GDP growth, increase in total factor productivity,
real GDP at purchasing power parity, and labor productivity per person employed.
Moreover, another research direction could be to analyze the structural convergence of
the Landesman and Krugman indices, or even the convergence of Romania's business
cycle.
The main idea regarding the fulfillment of all the convergence criteria, for Romania, is to
ensure that the Eurozone states have adequate economic conditions to maintain price
stability and, implicitly, the coherence of the Eurozone. Therefore, the individual criteria
are interpreted and applied in a strict manner. According to the specialized economic
literature, at the beginning of the Monetary Economic Unit, the Maastricht criteria were
not so strictly applied, on the other hand, currently many states that use the euro as their
currency today do not meet all these criteria. Hence, the idea that Romania must take into
account the fulfillment of these objectives in order to evaluate, over time, the evolution of
nominal convergence.
Moreover, from the resulting analysis it emerged that Romania should not adopt the
decision to switch to the euro zone before meeting all the criteria, because this brings with
it high costs, especially if there is a high level of government debt. An eloquent example
to support the previously mentioned information is that of the PIIGS states that face major
problems related to the financing of public debt, problems that continue to significantly
affect the economy of other European states as well.
In line with the economic literature, the evolution of nominal convergence for the euro
area states illustrated that convergence is much higher in the case of long-term price and
interest rate stability, while in the fiscal context there is no substantial improvement.
Convergence of long-term interest rates has steadily increased and recorded the highest
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E. F. Matei, I. M. Mindrican 165
level of convergence before the onset of the financial crisis in 2008, and the sovereign debt
crisis and the crisis generated by the COVID-19 pandemic have led to the emergence of a
significant number of challenges for Member States of the European Union.
Because of the previously obtained results, it can be concluded that the entire economic
context is uncertain and ambiguous, given the fact that the influence of the budget balance
is reduced on the level of public debt in Romania, more precisely; it has a smaller influence
in relation to the other factor.
6. Acknowledgements
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166 European Journal of Sustainable Development (2022), 11, 3, 149-166
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