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THE LOST FUTURE
Illustrations courtesy of Andrzej Mleczko
All rights reserved. This book may not be reproduced in whole or in part, in any
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permission from the publishers.
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e-ISBN 978-0-300-27163-8
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
CONTENTS
Preface
Endnotes
Further Reading
Index
PREFACE
Wake-up calls
We tend to realize the scale and scope of political interventions in
time and space when confronted with external shocks such as wars
or natural disasters. The first two months of Russia’s full-scale
invasion of Ukraine in 2022 ‘melted’ the clocks that organized the
lives of 40 million Ukrainians. In 1931, Salvador Dalí represented the
fragility of time in his iconic painting The Persistence of Memory.
Dalí’s melted clock, draped over the dead limb of a tree, could well
be placed on the ruins of Bucha or Mariupol to manifest that time
does not always move forward in a solid, well-crafted, reassuring
and predictable manner.
The Covid-19 pandemic could also be seen as an external shock
reordering time and space. Lockdowns not only confined us to
narrow spaces defined by the authorities; they also turned our
future planning upside down and changed the implications of past
decisions regarding our work and family life. Time has ‘taken a
break’, and the meaning of space has been changed by a series of
decrees hastily adopted on the basis of conflicting and patchy
evidence, and with little input from the confused and scared public.
The experience of this pandemic is important because
epidemiologists believe that Covid-19 is now endemic in the human
population, and it is not going to disappear any time soon. This
means that some of the drastic measures intruding upon our time
and space might remain or return, with uneven implications for
different ages, genders, classes and ethnic and national groups. A
common blueprint of restrictions imposed on citizens will vary
because of different political cultures and the personal ambitions of
leaders such as Modi, Erdoğan or Meloni. However, a common
challenge in all countries will be to grasp the implications of
individual political decisions, which affect the personal lives of
citizens in uneven ways. Covid-prompted interventions in our time
and space have not been guided by a quest for power, as was the
case with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, they may well
result in more power being concentrated in the hands of the
executive with no sufficient democratic oversight, little genuine
public deliberation, and shallow justification of the erratic measures
reordering our time and space. As scholars have rightly pointed out,
a series of grave financial, migratory, security and health shocks
induced governments to rule by emergency decrees that de facto, if
not de jure, suspended democratic procedures, and eroded civic
liberties.23
Citizens need to address some fundamental questions. Which
demands on my time are legitimate? Which restrictions on my
movement am I prepared to tolerate? We are poorly equipped to
answer these questions because our discussions about political
choices have tended to move in a different direction. We used to
argue about electoral preferences, the balance of power between
state institutions, the rule of law and judicial independence.
Although we talk about human and citizens’ rights, these discussions
focus chiefly on issues such as the freedom of speech or assembly,
or the right to privacy or property. Our rights to control our use of
time and space have been included in this discussion only indirectly,
if ever. Economic discussions focused chiefly on the issues of
competition, growth and redistribution. Some complained about
foreign workers ‘stealing our jobs’, but even the most xenophobic
politicians never advocated a total closure of national borders.
Nevertheless, the pandemic has meant that policies that we
previously found inconceivable, such as closing borders, have been
introduced and legitimized. The scale of political intrusion into our
time and space during the pandemic was unprecedented, at least in
our own lifetimes. Although initially we found most of the drastic
measures justified on medical grounds, slowly but surely, we began
to realize how much we care about our freedom to move and utilize
time freely. Now we know more than ever that our personal and
collective life is lived through time and space.
The impacts of the pandemic and war have made us recognize some
simple truths about time and space, but we are not sure how to go
about implementing them, especially in political terms. Some of us
are more confident than I am about the way forward, but after five
decades of studying politics, I know only one simple truth: there is
nothing certain in the political world. This is not only because politics
is about humans with different personalities, interests and skills. It is
also, if not chiefly, because the context of politics is constantly on
the move in response to changing technological, economic and social
circumstances. Even conservatives appreciate the famous passage
from The Leopard by Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa: ‘For things to
remain the same, everything must change.’24 But what exactly ought
to change if we aspire to regain our grasp of the future?
Let me propose a special focus on nation-states and the way they
handle time and space. Nation-states are the key political agents of
security, welfare and peaceful change, even for those who treat the
private sector as sacred. States control all major international
organizations: the United Nations (UN), the International Monetary
Fund (IMF), the World Health Organization (WHO), the European
Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
States are also the key sites for democratic accountability and
representation. They define our rights and obligations, and it is their
duty to use our money to make the world a better place. When
states perform poorly, there is no hope and the future looks ugly.
Why are states, however resourceful and democratic, losing
control over time and space? States are territorial organizations;
they cannot function without borders. When borders begin to
dissolve, states make no sense – and yet the past several decades
have witnessed an incessant process of unbounding, a process
during which the existing boundaries either wither, move or change
nature. As I will show in a moment, some states were, and are still,
trying to regain control over space, but with at best mixed results.
This unbounding evolved in the field of geopolitics: think about the
fall of the Soviet Union producing new states, autonomous enclaves,
semi-protectorates and ‘shared’ neighbourhoods. Unbounding then
accelerated in the field of economics: globalization and the EU single
market are the most cited examples. In a world of increased
connectivity, unbounding has also progressed in the field of health:
Covid-19, HIV/AIDS and antibiotic resistance have spread across
borders with remarkable ease. Unbounding has also exploded in the
field of communication, with the internet reaching even the most
remote places within three short decades. Territorial states are
increasingly helpless in handling transnational flows of money,
goods, people, messages and viruses. Yet we lack a viable
transnational public authority. The United Nations and even the
European Union are toothless – partly because nation-states are
reluctant to delegate meaningful powers and resources to them.
Nation-states also suffer from short-sightedness. When states
look backward, they only see past glories, when they look forward,
they see almost nothing. States have repeatedly failed to predict and
avert natural calamities. Their record of creating disasters such as
war or economic anarchy is also notable. Unfortunately, democracy
is partly responsible for states’ short-termism. Democracy requires
regular rotations of the government. That not only limits these
governments’ time perspectives, but also binds them to the wishes
of the electorate of the day, and prompts the neglect of future
generations. As Andreas Schäfer and Wolfgang Merkel put it bluntly
in the Oxford Handbook of Time and Politics: ‘Since democracies are
“systematically biased in favor of the present”, they tend to neglect
the future and impair the rights of future sovereigns.’25 And
Jonathan Boston added: ‘There is a widespread belief, based on
multiple forms of empirical evidence, that democratically elected
governments, when faced with intertemporal conflicts, display a
tendency to favour short-term interests over long-term interests.’26
No wonder numerous young people are giving up on democracy.27
They are likely to work longer for less money than their parents in a
degraded natural environment.28
What kind of future?
ORDERING TIME
Why does China, which extends across 4,893 kilometres, have only
one time zone? Why has Lithuania switched time zones five times
throughout the 1990s and early 2000s? Why has the European
Union decided to abandon the obligatory one-hour clock change in
summer and winter? In all these cases, the rationale was political.
China used to have five time zones, but imposing only one across
this vast country helped the Communist government to assert
centralized control over its diverse and geographically dispersed
people. (In defiance of the central government, the Uyghurs in the
far-western Xinjiang province continue to covertly use their own
‘Xinjiang Time’.) After the fall of the Soviet Union, politicians in
Lithuania could not make up their minds whether their time zone
should reflect lingering ties with Russia or prospective links with
Western Europe. The European Commission responded to growing
Euroscepticism by proposing to abandon its summer/winter time
directive in 2019. As the Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker
put it, ‘There is no applause when EU law dictates that Europeans
have to change the clocks twice a year.’1
Calendars represent another time-framing device used by
politicians to challenge existing notions of what is natural, rational
and good. The specific objectives may vary, but some politicians are
convinced that calendars help them to acquire and legitimize new
powers. Julius Caesar decided to consolidate reforms across his vast
empire by replacing the multitude of inaccurate and diverse
calendars of the Roman commonwealth with a single official one
carrying the emperor’s name. Robespierre in Revolutionary France
changed the seven-day week into a decimal week to desacralize the
cycle of work and rest. Stalin attempted to institute a five-day week
in the Soviet Union and, in order to break traditional patterns of
socialization among families, the rest day was randomly assigned by
the authorities. Mustafa Kemal Atatürk abandoned the Muslim
calendar in Turkey to push ahead the separation of state and church.
Pol Pot declared ‘Year Zero’ in Cambodia to break with all forms of
power that preceded him.
However, the framing of time can also assume less formalized
guises – with equally serious implications. According to Christopher
McIntosh, President Trump attempted to create and maintain ‘an
indefinite present’ by discounting the past and future of American
politics and pronouncing the glorious present exemplified by his own
rule.2 Trump seemed to believe that anything other than his own
leadership would signify the end of history and the end of efforts to
Make America Great Again. This may have been one of the reasons
underpinning his refusal to accept the 2020 election results.
Time framing may well be abused by power holders, but it fulfils
important functions. Time allocations and regulations allow people to
go through their lives with a reassuring degree of order, stability,
rhythm and structure. Time measures delineate past and future,
regress and progress, birth and death, transience and permanence.
Citizens need to know how time flows in order to adjust their
personal planning accordingly. Calendars, time zones and the clock-
defined job schedule help citizens to make ‘rational’ choices
regarding their family, money, work and education. The ordering of
time installs predictability and gives citizens a sense of security.
Citizens want to know at least roughly what the future will bring, and
they want to sense the expected timeframes of future events: will
they be cyclical or linear, short or long, repetitive or cumulative, slow
or fast, measured or experienced? They want to compare the
timeframes in their country with those of other countries. (Jenny
Shaw has analysed the popular belief that, in different parts of the
world and in different kinds of places, life proceeds at different
speeds.)3
Citizens can try to press the government for a different direction
and speed of future development, but in a world deprived of a sense
of time structure, destructive chaos prevails. As globalization, climate
change and technological innovation impose new timeframes,
citizens’ insecurity only grows. Calendars, time zones, working hours
and other forms of regulation, synchronization and allocation of time
can inject a sense of stability if not security.
However, these time-framing devices work better in periods of
stability than turmoil. If the present is perceived as a crisis,
governments are unable to lay solid foundations for tomorrow.
Uncertainty, fear, and subsequently chaos, begin to dominate
political decision-making, with implications for ordinary citizens. We
have experienced this phenomenon first-hand during the recent
health and financial crises. Instead of reassuring citizens and
instilling a sense of hope for the future, the authorities, perhaps
unwittingly, made people despair. This state of affairs was more
evident in Trump’s America or Modi’s India than in Merkel’s Germany,
for instance – which only suggests that policies based on scientific
evidence can install a sense of predictability and confidence better
than those based on post-truth.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also generated policies that have
unsettled citizens, especially in Europe. Citizens in countries
bordering Ukraine, Belarus and Russia have obviously been more
exposed to Russia’s brutal behaviour than citizens in the rest of
Europe. Yet long-term planning became difficult also in the south of
Europe, Africa and Asia, especially as a consequence of energy and
food dependency on Ukrainian and Russian exports. The war has
also highlighted discrepancies in time-frames. Desperate Ukrainians
had a long wait for the EU to decide on and deliver aid to their
besieged country. How many lives could have been saved if the EU
decision-making process was less protracted? As for those who fled
Ukraine, time became a long waiting process with no clear end in
sight. I will never forget the many Ukrainian women wandering with
their children through the parks of Warsaw; I suspect with many
hopes but few plans for the future. Different timeframes could also
be observed in Ukraine itself. While ordinary citizens were forced to
focus on everyday survival, the policy-makers were considering the
long-term implications of their successive moves, as a way of
assuring that Ukraine does indeed have a future. But before we
consider the uses and misuses of time framing by politicians, let us
reflect on the nature of time. This has implications for our
understanding of the politics of time.
Is time real?
We often think about time as we think about the air that we inhale.
It is something that we take for granted, given by God or nature to
all humans on this Earth. Politics hardly enters our considerations
here; time just keeps rolling regardless of who is in charge of
governments.
Yes, we know that the timespan of our own life is difficult to
predict but we assume that a single day has 24 hours, and a year
has 365 days. Time and its ‘organic’ structure helps us to move
forward within the labyrinth of complex modern society. Moreover,
time seems to guide our life by giving it identity and meaning. Time
tells us where we come from – the past, where we have been; the
present, where we currently are; the future, where we are headed
towards. Time tells us what we can or cannot aspire to, because
many ambitions cannot be reached in our lifetime, while other
desires are superseded by the flow of time. Time inspires us and
disciplines us at the same time. Without time we may be lost in the
universe, deprived of footpaths and signposts. A politician who
intends to deprive us of a natural, steady and predictable flow of
time would not be able to count on our vote, would they?
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Language: English
FRANK R. STOCKTON
NEW EDITION.
NEW YORK:
CHARLES SCRIBNER’S SONS,
1916
Copyright 1875
BY
SCRIBNER, ARMSTRONG & CO.
Copyright 1903
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MARIAN E. STOCKTON
PREFACE.