3.9 5.

Article

Bridging Knowledge Gaps towards

2030: The Use of Foresight for the
Strategic Management of a
Sustainable Blue Economy

Lisa A. Pace, Kristian Borch and Alan Deidun

Special Issue
Sustainable Blue Economy and Marine Management
Edited by
Dr. Marianna Cavallo

https://doi.org/10.3390/su151310026
 sustainability

Article
Bridging Knowledge Gaps towards 2030: The Use of Foresight
for the Strategic Management of a Sustainable Blue Economy
Lisa A. Pace 1, * , Kristian Borch 2 and Alan Deidun 3

1 The Edward de Bono Institute for Creative Thinking and Innovation, University of Malta,
MSD2080 Msida, Malta
2 Department of Planning, University of Aalborg, 9000 Aalborg, Denmark
3 Department of Geosciences, Faculty of Science, University of Malta, MSD2080 Msida, Malta
* Correspondence: [email protected]

Abstract: There is need to better understand the trends and future challenges influencing the marine
and coastal environments and identify the opportunities to develop innovative sustainability-oriented
solutions to address these. Alongside mainstream decision support tools used in environmental
management and conservation sciences, foresight techniques provide comprehensive and well-
rounded information and knowledge about likely developments in the long-term future. This study
uses a horizon scanning exercise to explore emerging signals and trends of future developments
and innovation for the sustainable development of the blue economy looking towards 2030. It
derives a series of global developments, challenges and opportunities relating to the blue economy
from a review of high-level international reports and studies. Through a workshop conducted with
29 scientists and researchers based in maritime universities in six countries in Europe, the study
identifies and prioritizes emerging signals and trends considered of high impact for a sustainability
transition. The outputs include a synthesis of 11 global developments in the blue economy and
7 cross-cutting trends and trend projections. These may be valuable to marine scientists as a source of
inspiration for a future research agenda or can be used as evidence for decision- and policymakers to
deal with future uncertainties about the growth of the blue economy.

Citation: Pace, L.A.; Borch, K.; Keywords: foresight; blue economy; horizon scanning; trends; science and innovation;
Deidun, A. Bridging Knowledge sustainable development
Gaps towards 2030: The Use of
Foresight for the Strategic
Management of a Sustainable Blue
Economy. Sustainability 2023, 15, 1. Introduction
10026. https://doi.org/10.3390/
Alongside predictive models and other decision-support tools, novel forward-looking
su151310026
approaches are needed to support decisions on complex issues such as those related to sus-
Academic Editor: Marianna Cavallo tainable development, climate change and environmental management and planning that
are characterized by high uncertainties about the choices and solutions to adopt, and the
Received: 28 May 2023
Revised: 19 June 2023
impacts these choices may have on different components of socio-ecological systems [1–4].
Accepted: 21 June 2023
A challenge is developing forward-looking tools to guide marine scientists, decisionmakers
Published: 25 June 2023 and policymakers in harnessing the opportunities derived from marine and coastal re-
sources and ocean-based activities whilst safeguarding the resilience of marine ecosystems,
in line with the requirements of SDG14. In a European policy context, ‘sustainable develop-
ment’ of the blue economy rests on creating opportunities to develop innovative approaches
Copyright: © 2023 by the authors. that uphold the principles of biodiversity and coastal ecosystems preservation, circularity,
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. and pollution reduction [5]. This also bears on the objective of the Green Deal for Europe to
This article is an open access article achieve climate neutrality by 2050 [6]. The European Commission’s Blue Economy Strategy
distributed under the terms and emphasizes the importance of mainstreaming sustainability in decision-making in priority
conditions of the Creative Commons areas including aquaculture and fisheries, clean energy, sustainable maritime transport,
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
and green shipping. Innovation lies at the heart of the EU’s sustainable blue economy
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
strategy, playing a central role in harnessing the untapped potential of marine and coastal
4.0/).

Sustainability 2023, 15, 10026. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151310026 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability

Sustainability 2023, 15, 10026 2 of 20

resources and in creating new business opportunities based on “clean, climate-proof and
sustainable activities” [5] (p. 2). This policy context sets the stage for science and research to
develop innovative ocean-based solutions, business models and services that promote the
preservation of coastal and marine resources and solutions that lead to the decarbonisation
of industry [7].
This study contributes to a growing corpus of knowledge on the use of foresight tools
and approaches for the strategic management of natural resources and marine and coastal
activities linked to the blue economy [2,8]. Foresight is not a predictive tool. It considers
the impacts of present-day decisions on a range of alternative futures and helps design
research agendas and policies that are resilient to different future options [2,9]. A tool used
in foresight is horizon scanning (HS) that aims to identify near- and long-term signals
and trends of issues and challenges linked to a particular domain or topic. This study
combines an analytical and participatory approach to implement a HS exercise of future
developments that could potentially catalyse a sustainability transformation in the blue
economy looking towards 2030 [10]. It derives trends about emerging topics, challenges
and opportunities relating to the blue economy from a review of high-level international
reports and studies. A workshop conducted with 29 scientists and researchers based
in maritime universities in six countries in Europe served to brainstorm and prioritize
future opportunities to advance science and research for a sustainable blue economy. This
study forms part of a foresight exercise implemented in three phases—these are scanning,
scenario, and strategy phases—whose aim was to explore future research and innovation
directions for a sustainable blue economy (see [8]). The present research expands on the
scanning phase implemented as part of the foresight exercise, to explore the approach used
in identifying global developments linked to the blue economy and to investigate the role
of expert participation in identifying and prioritizing future trends in the blue economy.
The outputs include 11 future trends cards delineating global developments in the
blue economy and 7 integrated or cross-cutting trends and trend projections looking
towards 2030. These outputs may be valuable to scientists as a source of inspiration for a
future agenda for resource management and planning and could inspire new research and
innovation directions to develop innovative sustainable ocean solutions. They can be used
as evidence for decision- and policymakers to deal with future uncertainties about the blue
economy, complementing quantitative forecasting exercises aimed at developing future
scenarios of the oceans and related economic activities.
The remainder of the paper is organised as follows. Section 2 provides a brief overview
of trends in the blue economy and outlines the salient characteristics of foresight and its use
as a decision support tool in environmental management to then focus on horizon scanning
as a tool for trends diagnosis. Next, Section 3 describes the methodology and the analytical
and participatory phases of the study. The results are presented in Section 4. These consist
of global developments derived from a literature search (presented as ‘future trends cards’
in Appendix A) and the themes mapped and prioritized by the experts in the participatory
workshop. Section 5 includes a discussion to conclude in Section 6 with suggested areas for
further research.

2. Theoretical Background
2.1. Future Trends for Innovation in the Blue Economy—A Preliminary Outlook
Realizing a sustainable blue economy requires knowledge, research, development
and innovation as its main cornerstones. The UN Decade of Ocean Science highlights the
potential for innovation of “finding solutions to climate change but also to enhance and
preserve the biodiversity of the ocean, sustainably feed the population, end poverty and
inequality, and stimulate a thriving and sustainable ocean economy.” [11] (p. 3). Likewise,
the Ocean Panel’s vision for a sustainable blue economy emphasizes the role of innovation
in scaling up the “ocean’s tapped opportunities to deliver medicines, animal feed, fuel,
new materials and carbon-storage solutions, the need for which has been further evidenced
and strengthened by the COVID-19 pandemic and its repercussions” [12] (p. 9). New
Sustainability 2023, 15, 10026 3 of 20

technology developments in artificial intelligence, big data and robotics, could go a long
way to support sustainable development and modernisation of traditional industries such
as shipping, fisheries and tourism. Likewise, emerging sectors such as offshore renewable
energy and blue biotechnology rely on innovative business models and on establishing
cross-sectoral collaborations and partnerships to sustain their activities [5,7].
Advancements in global ocean monitoring and surveillance systems have started to
reveal the impacts of climate change on ocean dynamics and coastal activities [13]. These
changes call for innovative solutions and applications that are scalable across diverse
marine and maritime sectors [14]. The needed innovation capacity can be achieved in
part by establishing partnerships between academia, industry and government and by
aligning priorities for research, technology development and commercialisation in the blue
economy [15–17]. The importance of exploring new markets and establishing industrial
service platforms to connect technologies and markets and link maritime industries with
adequate financing for technology development are key elements for a successful blue
economy ([18]. At present, the solutions to achieve a sustainable blue economy in an
integrated way remain somewhat open in terms of opportunities that lie at the frontier
of science and research. For this purpose, foresight can help identify knowledge gaps
and opportunities in the blue economy [14]. This information can be valuable to build
resilience and the capabilities needed to adapt to different future developments in the blue
economy [8].

2.2. Foresight and Its Applications in Strategic Environmental and Resource Management
Foresight is a systematic forward-looking process that anticipates future threats and
opportunities influencing complex systems in the long-term and contributes to developing
adaptive strategies to guide decisions about the future [2,4,9,19,20]. It draws attention to
the systemic and complex nature of an issue by analysing this through multiple and often
competing worldviews and by drawing attention to the factors in the external environment—
these relate to political, economic, social, technological, legal and ecological factors—that
influence the direction and speed of change [21,22]. It has a practical application, in enabling
decision-makers and scientists to consider the impacts of policy options and to prioritize
decisions and research directions under different future scenarios [8,9].
Unlike forecasting that is associated with predictions based on past and present
data [23], foresight generates a range of possible and plausible futures, and attempts to
understand the challenges as well as possible solutions associated with achieving sus-
tainability futures for the natural environment [2,3]. The literature addressing foresight
and sustainable development underscores the importance of exploring multiple futures
that integrate across disciplines, sectors, and spatial scales [1,8,21,22,24]. Foresight claims
both a creative and participatory mission, aimed at exploring a wide range of perspectives
on the uncertainties and potential impacts of future developments and in so doing spurs
stakeholders to take action to shape future outcomes [25].
A foresight exercise involves the systematic use of different tools and techniques to
explore alternative futures. Typically, these tools are deployed in key stages of the foresight
exercise that consist in setting the scope of the exercise and collecting inputs; analysing
trends and signals and interpreting information; prospection and scenario-building, and
implementing the outcomes [9,26]. In this study, we report on a horizon scanning (HS) that
is typically implemented in the initial stage of a foresight exercise because it helps frame
the search process by defining the focal issues and defining the boundary of a system. The
themes emerging from a scan provide input into scenario building and into developing
alternative possibilities of how the future might unfold.

2.3. Scanning the Horizon for Emerging Signals and Trends

Horizon scanning (HS) is part of a futures toolkit [27] used as an early-warning tool
to scope themes—potential threats and opportunities—that often lie at the margins of
current thinking and that may forewarn of signals of change that alert scientists and deci-
Sustainability 2023, 15, 10026 4 of 20

sionmakers about emerging issues of importance in the medium to long-term future [28].
A HS exercise is often used to provide background information on the domain or topic
such as generating information about trends. It also serves as an early warning system
of emerging developments that can be used to help environmental planners, managers
and decision-makers to prioritise research and develop resilient policies for environmental
monitoring and conservation [29]. The aim of HS is to elicit a structured search, collect-
ing and organizing information about current trends and emerging issues. HS creates
awareness about potential opportunities and threats in the medium to long-term future,
enabling organisations and firms to prepare for change by enacting timely responses in
the way of new policy development or identifying research questions that need to be
answered [19,29,30]. Thus, the aim of a scanning exercise is that of “monitoring existing
problems, highlighting emerging threats, and identifying promising new opportunities” [9]
(p. 531).
There are different types of ‘issues’ that emerge from a HS exercise: these could include
continuing or emerging trends, weak signals, wild cards, and seeds of change that could
become important in the medium to long-term future [9,28,30]. A trend typically represents
a factor that is fairly well-understood. It is usually already widespread and active in society
and typically describes how past and present developments are likely to develop in the
future. Several global trends have a high impact on the oceans and coasts: e.g., climate
change, population growth, depletion of fish stocks, human pressures on coastal areas.
These are well-established trends that are likely to influence the medium to long-term future
of the blue economy [31]. A trend is defined by the degree of predictability of the change
it describes and how it moves in a specific direction over time [32]. However, arguably a
trend can also describe what is new—an innovation or deviation from normality—referring
to novel discontinuities that arise when unexpected connections between trends merge
and come together, such as when concepts or themes are transferred between different
contexts [33,34].
Weak or emerging signals are defined as the first symptom of change taking place—
this could refer to an upcoming phenomenon or an emerging opportunity—that has a
relevant and significant impact on an organisation or sector or country [27]. A weak signal
may develop into a trend but at a given point in time, it is not mainstream and there are
only indications of how this may evolve in the future and whether this is likely to increase
or decrease in influence or relevance over time. Weak signals either serve to reinforce the
emerging issue or identify modifications and developments. They refer to discontinuities
that represent early warning signals of change to which organisations need to be alerted
and prepared [28]. Wild cards are potentially shifting paradigms [1]; and seeds of change
refer to how marginal ideas and innovations might evolve and become established as
mainstream in a future [35]. Common for weak signals, wild cards and seeds of change is
the high degree of uncertainty compared to trends.
HS provides strategic information about changes in the business environment, alerting
organisations to new opportunities e.g., on the development of new markets or to possible
threats on the horizon [19]. Cuhls stated that expert judgment is required following the
information gathering in HS “for filtering, sense-making, and synthesizing or combining
material from different angles and perspectives” [30] (p. 20). Thus, the sense-making
phase often engages experts in exploring the inter-relations between different trends and
drivers of change, their uncertainties and plausible impacts, allowing for a comprehensive
exploration of possibilities around desirable and undesirable futures which can serve as
input for building future scenarios to inspire innovation [36,37].
There is a paucity of research on the use of forward-looking tools for the management
of marine and coastal resources. With the rapid growth of the blue economy and the
heightened interest in its potential to fulfil climate change targets, by promoting concepts
of ‘sustainability’, ‘innovation’ and ‘resilience’, there is need to explore how to channel
investments in science and innovation to support these ambitious policy goals and match
these goals with appropriate science-based evidence. To this end, this study implements
 heightened interest in its potential to fulfil climate change targets, by promoting concepts
Sustainability 2023, 15, 10026
of ‘sustainability’, ‘innovation’ and ‘resilience’, there is need to explore how to channel
5 of 20
investments in science and innovation to support these ambitious policy goals and match
these goals with appropriate science-based evidence. To this end, this study implements
a HS exercise to gather futures intelligence about emerging signals and trends and their
a HSdevelopment
likely exercise to gather futures
towards intelligence
a sustainable blueabout emerging signals and trends and their
economy.
likely development towards a sustainable blue economy.
3. Materials and Methods
3. Materials and Methods
3.1.
3.1.Overview
Overview
TheThestudy
study explored
explored emerging
emergingsignals
signalsand
and trends
trendsthat are
that likely
are likelytoto
grow
grow inin
importance
importance
and have a significant impact on the future of a sustainable blue
and have a significant impact on the future of a sustainable blue economy. For thiseconomy. For this pur-
purpose,
pose, the HS was implemented in two phases, first through a review
the HS was implemented in two phases, first through a review of the literature mapping of the literature map-
ping global
global developments
developments and and emerging
emerging trends
trends relatedrelated
to theto theeconomy,
blue blue economy, and second
and second through
through a participatory
a participatory expert workshop
expert workshop involving involving
scientistsscientists and researchers
and researchers from the from the
University
University of BrestUniversity
of Brest (France), (France), University of Cádiz
of Cádiz (Spain), (Spain), University
University of Gdánsk
of Gdánsk (Poland), (Poland),of
University
University of Kiel (Germany),
Kiel (Germany), University of University of Malta
Malta (Malta) and(Malta)
Universityand of
University of SplitThese
Split (Croatia). (Croa-are
tia). These are maritime universities that formed part of the ‘Universities
maritime universities that formed part of the ‘Universities of the Seas’ (SEA-EU) alliance, of the Seas’ (SEA- a
EU) alliance,
flagship a flagship
initiative initiative
of the European of the European Commission.
Commission. The HS process Theis HS process isin
summarized summa-
Figure 1
rized
and in Figure 1in
discussed and discussed
more in more detail below.
detail below.

Figure 1. 1.
Figure The horizon
The scanning
horizon process.
scanning process.

3.2. Scanning Global Developments in the Blue Economy

3.2. Scanning Global Developments in the Blue Economy
A literature search was performed to identify global trends that could represent
A literature search was performed to identify global trends that could represent po-
potential threats or opportunities towards achieving a sustainable blue economy until 2030.
tential threats or opportunities towards achieving a sustainable blue economy until 2030.
An analysis of high-level international reports and studies addressing the future of the
An analysis of high-level international reports and studies addressing the future of the
oceans and coasts [7,31,38–49] was conducted between September 2020 and March 2021.
oceans and coasts [7,31,38–49] was conducted between September 2020 and March 2021.
This was complemented by an analysis of the proceedings from online public stakeholder
This was complemented by an analysis of the proceedings from online public stakeholder
consultations and dialogues that discussed the future of the blue economy [50–52]. When
consultations and dialogues that discussed the future of the blue economy [50–52]. When
scanning for global trends, the authors scanned broadly to identify current trends as well
scanning
as signals forofglobal
changetrends, the authors
influencing scanned
the future broadly
of marine tomaritime
and identify current trends
activities. as well
The objective
aswas
signals of change influencing the future of marine and maritime activities.
to obtain a bird’s eye view on future developments in different areas of economicThe objective
was to obtain
activity, value a bird’s
chains,eye view on future
technological developments
advancements and in different linked
innovation areas of toeconomic
the oceans
activity, value chains, technological advancements and innovation linked to the oceans
and coasts.
and coasts.
A review of abstracts and report summaries was conducted to assess the relevance
A review
of the of abstracts
publications to theand report
subject of summaries was conducted
‘future’, ‘ocean’, to assess
‘marine’, ‘trend’ thedevelopment’,
‘new relevance of
the publications to the subject of ‘future’, ‘ocean’, ‘marine’, ‘trend’ ‘new
‘future potential’ and ‘blue economy’ using Scopus and Google Scholar as the principaldevelopment’,
search engines. The main inclusion criteria were that the publications addressed global
topics pertaining to the oceans and coasts and related economic activities, and secondly
that they had a future-orientation seeking to address future developments in the marine
environment. The analysis involved identifying the major trends and drivers of change in
Sustainability 2023, 15, 10026 6 of 20

political, economic and societal factors, technological developments and regulatory and
environmental issues (these are PESTLE-type factors) that were mapped across diverse ma-
rine and coastal activities. For this purpose, the EU’s classification of the sectoral activities
that encompass the blue economy was used as a reference of the principle economic areas
related to the oceans and coasts [7]. These include well-established sectors (fisheries, aqua-
culture, tourism, maritime transport and port activities) and emerging sectors such as blue
biotechnology, ocean energy and maritime defence. The search outcomes were organised
in a data sheet with a short description of the PESTLE factors and trends influencing each
of the sectors. The search continued until no new developments or trends were identified.

3.3. Designing Trends ‘Cards’ of Global Blue Economy Futures

In the next stage, the global trends were clustered into themes by looking horizontally
across sectors of economic activity and vertically along different PESTLE factors. The
clustering of themes involved thinking beyond traditional disciplines and grouping themes
or topics at the intersection of different fields and that cross sectoral boundaries. The aim
was to identify developments and opportunities for technological advancements, new
services, business models, cross-sectoral partnerships etc.
A series of 11 ‘trend cards’ were designed that consist of (1) the trend description;
(2) trend projection up to 2030 and (3) opportunities and challenges of the trend being
realized. These are presented in Appendix A. The ‘trends cards’ proved to be an effective
way to summarize the key issues pertaining to the future of the blue economy. They were
distributed to the participants of an expert workshop several weeks prior to the event and
served as a starting point for the experts to explore emerging signals and trends that could
potentially impact a transition to a sustainable blue economy.

3.4. Expert Workshop

In June 2021, a full day online workshop was organised with scientists and early-stage
researchers with expertise in a broad range of disciplines relating to the marine and coastal
sciences. The format of the workshop was adapted from the methodology developed
by [10] for horizon scanning exercises involving the participation of experts. The experts
were organised into small groups of 5–6 individuals for the brainstorming and evaluation
phases of the process; and then met in a plenary to rank and prioritize signals and trends
emerging from the small groups. The groups were mixed to include both experienced
scientists as well as junior researchers.
In the first phase of the workshop, the participants were asked to brainstorm about
emerging signals and trends that are likely to impact the sustainable development of
the blue economy by 2030. This allowed for a stage of divergent thinking where the
participants could explore trends and emerging opportunities in the blue economy and
map these across different sectors and disciplines, without focussing on a specific region or
territorial boundary.
Then the participants were asked to rank the emerging signals and trends based
on two criteria commonly used in horizon scans addressing ecological conservation and
management [53,54]. These are: the degree of uncertainty and whether a future event will
likely develop into an opportunity to think about in the future; and secondly whether the
issue is likely to have a significant impact on the sustainable development of blue economy
activities in the future. A qualitative scale was used to score each issue based on a scale of
“high”, “medium” and “low” to evaluate both criteria.
Finally, in a plenary session the participants were asked to score through a voting
process the high importance and high impact issues to obtain a manageable list of trends and
emerging opportunities relevant for strategic research activity and that could potentially
lead to new solutions that support the sustainable growth of the blue economy towards
2030. A summation of votes (3 votes per participant) produced a ranked list of priority
issues to take forward.
Sustainability 2023, 15, 10026 7 of 20

3.5. Sensemaking
In the post-workshop phase, the authors organized and sorted the issues prioritized
and ranked by the experts by filtering issues that were not considered emerging or novel
and by clustering similar or overlapping issues together [10]. In the process, not all relevant
themes were retained, but only those considered to be directly pertinent to the goal of the
HS exercise of identifying opportunities to advance science and innovation for a sustainable
blue economy.

4. Results
4.1. Global-, European- and Regional-Level Themes and Trends
43 themes were initially mapped by the workshop participants, after data cleaning
and eliminating duplicates and themes that refer to broad trends e.g., those on the state
of oil contamination and disruptions caused by climate change—see Table 1. The par-
ticipants were encouraged to identify trends and emerging signals at global, European,
and regional levels. However, these geographical demarcations were considered artificial
since the participants agreed that most of the issues discussed were of global importance
and consequence.

Table 1. Trends mapped by participants in the brainstorming phase of the expert workshop.

Emerging Signals and Trends

Category * Global Level European Level Regional Level
Zero-waste, circular economy.
Diversified products from
aquaculture. By 2030,
it is estimated that circular
Sustainable fishing and aquaculture
economy initiatives could
and fishing effort characterisation
reduce EU carbon
particularly in restricted areas.
emissions by
Industrial marine aquaculture and
43% [9]
capture fisheries are expected to New industries based on
Increased demand for seafood
experience an annual growth in gross the use of subproducts or
products. EU citizens
Ecosystem services value added of 5.69% and 4.10% waste streams from related
consume more
respectively between 2010 and 2030 [44] industries (e.g.,
than three times the amount of
Sustainable tourism e.g., eco-friendly fisheries, aquaculture).
seafood produced within the
cruise ships, fast growth in nautical
EU and demand is anticipated
tourism. Ocean-based industries
to grow [9]
contributed roughly 2.5% to global
Blue tourism: towards more
gross value added in 2010 [44]
sustainable coastal
tourism in Europe.
Seaweed for feed and food and
high-value products.
EU fishing agreements with
Recognition of blue carbon markets,
small island developing states
especially seagrass, and other emerging
(SIDS) incorporated in
elements like fish carbon, whale carbon.
conservation funds.
SDG14 was the least funded SDG in
Standardized definitions and
2019 and only 1.7% of national research
rules for issuing green and blue
Financing budgets is allocated to ocean science
bonds at EU level. Green bonds
[11] so that de-risking financing and
are expected to raise 30% of
developing innovative financing
funds in the European
solutions is needed to mobilize public
Commission’s
and private investments to sustain the
‘NextGenerationEU’ instrument
ocean economy [49]
for green investments [9]
Sustainability 2023, 15, 10026 8 of 20

Table 1. Cont.

Emerging Signals and Trends

Category * Global Level European Level Regional Level
Technology advancements Autonomous technological
replace fish protein and lipids. systems as biomarkers of
Biomaterials. animal health, plant health.
Advance of underwater drones Innovative biotechnologies in
and other related technologies. the treatment of waste e.g.,
Innovative fishing gear
Maritime transport— bioplastic materials derived
designs to reduce the number
Technology autonomous from microalgae.
of overfishes
ships—cyber security. A priority action defined by
and by-catches.
Alternatives to produce “clean the Ocean Panel is that of
water” at source. developing viable and
Smart restoration of sustainable plastic alternatives
degraded habitats. to eliminate microplastics in
Smart bioplastics. the ocean [12]
Centralised monitoring and
data surveillance systems.
An open data
Marine surveillance
repository/database for
technology/human capital
sharing of resources/data to
development for better
gain insights and for
management and monitoring of
Monitoring cross-sectoral collaboration.
marine spatial plans.
and observations The trend toward
Integration of observations and
digitalization of the ocean and
model outputs to evaluate the
useability of data supports the
effects of climate change on the
‘DestinationEarth’ flagship
state of health of ocean.
initiative of the European
Union to develop a digital
model of earth [7]
Stakeholder engagement in
the sustainable
socio-economic development
Multi-level cooperation among Multi-level cooperation of the territory.
Governance stakeholders in the among stakeholders in the Synergies across different
blue economy. blue economy. sectors, integrating supply
chains and value systems.
Transdisciplinary knowledge
creation.
Increased conservation efforts
Toward a universal definition
Politics related to around blue carbon
for blue economy.
sustainable food. ecosystems in regional Marine
Offshore renewable energy
Marine spatial planning Spatial Plans.
strategies. The compound
towards achieving an New job opportunities and
annual growth rate for gross
equilibrium between gender inclusion in
value added of offshore wind
economic development and blue sectors.
Policy and planning between 2010 and 2030
marine biodiversity Streamlined use of marine
is 24.52% [44]
conservation. A growing and coastal resources across
Growth in marine genetic
trend to integrate an regions and nations.
resources interest, research and
ecosystem-based approach to Improved coherence across
services spurred by the
maritime spatial planning and sectoral policies
Biodiversity Beyond National
to cross-border cooperation [7] and streamlined
Jurisdiction (BBNJ) negotiations.
legislative processes.
Sustainability 2023, 15, 10026 9 of 20

Table 1. Cont.

Emerging Signals and Trends

Category * Global Level European Level Regional Level
Exponential demand for
sustainability products
Mainstreaming ocean literacy.
sourced from the
Improving livelihoods by
marine environment.
creating blue jobs and blue Urban expansion of coastal
Citizen awareness and
innovation ecosystems. areas for improved
People education to eliminate
Establish citizen-researchers’ quality life and
plastic pollution.
relationships. remote working.
Environmental education on
Improved dialogue between
the sustainability of marine
academia and policymakers.
resources and the impacts of
climate change.
* The broad categories were assigned by the authors to group the themes mapped by the participants in the
workshop. (Source: expert workshop)

As per Table 1, several themes refer to the continuation of present-day trends whereas
others represent signals of innovative opportunities such as those linked to the development
of global integrated ocean observation models or to the large-scale commercialisation of
innovative bioplastics from microalgae. The participants were asked to consider issues that
represent novel developments in the blue economy; but the search was circumscribed to the
participants’ own areas of expertise. Some of the themes identified focus on specific sectors
and the ecosystem services these support (e.g., tourism, renewable energy, aquaculture)
whereas others constitute cross-cutting themes (e.g., those related to governance and to the
co-production and co-dissemination of knowledge and stakeholder collaboration).

4.2. Prioritized and Ranked Trends

Out of the 43 trends mapped, 16 themes were prioritized by the participants based
on their degree of impact on achieving a sustainability transition in the blue economy and
the level of uncertainty of future developments—see Figure 2 that illustrates the matrix of
themes prioritized. For this stage, the participants claimed that most of the themes were
equally important and impactful since they considered an investigation about the future
of a sustainable blue economy to be well-rounded when based on all relevant sectors and
related maritime activities. This made it difficult to differentiate the relative impact of
different themes and as a result, most were categorized as “high impact” e.g., sustainable
fisheries and aquaculture, tourism, and the role of marine spatial planning in resource
conservation and management as seen in Figure 2. Most themes were ranked as being
of “medium” to “low” uncertainty; whereas only five themes were flagged as highly
uncertain in terms of the direction they are likely to develop in the future. Examples relate
to the development of marine surveillance for resource monitoring and management and
technology advances for the development of novel proteins and lipids.
Once the participants voted to rank the trends, it was observed that the votes were
broadly distributed among the 16 prioritized themes as seen in the matrix in Figure 2.
The top-ranked theme (‘blue tourism’) received 11% of total votes cast; the second-ranked
themes (sustainable fisheries and aquaculture, zero-waste circular economy and innovative
biotechnologies) together received 27% of total votes; whereas the third-ranked themes
relating to education and to the development of high-value added products received 18%
of the total votes. Several themes are very broad e.g., blue tourism, circular economy and
sustainable fisheries; whereas others appear to be topic- or field-specific and possibly reflect
the experts’ areas of expertise e.g., marine surveillance and spatial planning.
Sustainability 2023, 15, 10026 10 of 20

Key Number of votes assigned per theme (3 votes per expert, 26 experts participated in voting session)

Figure 2. Matrix of 16 themes prioritized by the experts and results from the voting session (Source
Figure 2. Matrix of 16 themes prioritized by the experts and results from the voting session (Source
outputs from experts’ deliberations).
outputs from experts’ deliberations).
4.3. Cross-Cutting Trends
Once the participants
The sensemaking voted
exercise to rankthe
clustered thethemes
trends, it was observed
prioritized that in
in the matrix theFigure
votes2were
to
broadly
produce distributed among the
seven cross-cutting 16 prioritized
trends [8]. Looking themes
towardsas seen
2030,inwethe matrix on
elaborate in Figure
each of2. The
the
top-ranked theme (‘blue tourism’)
seven trends and trend projections below: received 11% of total votes cast; the second-ranked
themes (sustainable fisheries and aquaculture, zero-waste circular economy and innova-
tive biotechnologies)
4.3.1. Integrated Foodtogether
Productionreceived
Systems27% of total votes; whereas the third-ranked
themesTechnology
relating toadvancements
education and to the energy
enhance development of high-value
efficiency in the productionaddedofproducts
food andre-
ceived 18% of the
feed, reducing wastetotal
andvotes. Several
enhancing the themes
quality andare diversity
very broad e.g.,
of the fishblue tourism,
produce. circular
In Europe,
economy
seaweedandand sustainable fisheries;
algae production whereas others
for higher-value food appear
and feedtoproducts
be topic- is or
an field-specific
emerging topic. and
possibly reflect theofexperts’
Mass cultivation algae andareas of expertise
the use of algae ase.g., marine
a source surveillance
of protein for foodand spatial
could plan-
realise
ning.
their potential to replace fish protein and lipids. There are opportunities to reconsider the
quality of our diets and the type of species consumed for food. The sustainability of food
production systems
4.3. Cross-Cutting is enhanced in terms of the benefits and trade-offs and synergies across
Trends
the production, provisioning, and consumption of food whether sourced from fisheries or
The sensemaking
aquaculture and seaweedexercise clustered
production. the themes
Innovative prioritized
methods in the matrix
and approaches in Figure
to produce food 2
tobecome
produce seven cross-cutting
established trends
such as using [8].technologies
genetic Looking towards 2030,the
to enhance wenutritional
elaborateprofile
on each
of of
the seven trends
algal biomass. and trend projections below:

4.3.1.
4.3.2.Integrated Fooda Production
Co-Designing Systems
Marine Science Agenda
Technology
The marineadvancements enhanceincreasingly
and maritime sciences energy efficiency
rely onininterdisciplinary
the production andof food and
trans-
feed, reducing waste and enhancing the quality and diversity of the fish produce. InA
disciplinary research and on integrating knowledge from different fields of science. Eu-
dialogue amongst natural, social and political scientists and the arts is established
rope, seaweed and algae production for higher-value food and feed products is an emerg- based on
a shared
ing understanding
topic. Mass of of
cultivation thealgae
blue economy
and the useandofonalgae
the value
as a of marine
source of resources.
protein forThe
food
could realise their potential to replace fish protein and lipids. There are opportunities to
reconsider the quality of our diets and the type of species consumed for food. The
Sustainability 2023, 15, 10026 11 of 20

co-production of knowledge about the state of the ocean is a priority as open ocean gover-
nance systems engaging broad societal actors (citizens, civil society organisations, hobbyists,
nature groups, clubs etc.) are recognized as being central to decision- and policymaking.

4.3.3. Advanced Marine Surveillance and Monitoring for Integrated Management of the
State of the Ocean
Centralised and integrated data platforms enable the harmonisation of data about
marine and coastal processes and activities. Innovative marine surveillance and monitoring
technologies enable scientists to develop a better understanding of the state of the ocean
also thanks to advances in ocean robotics, digitalisation and artificial intelligence. Likewise
advances in modelling and data analytics produce near real-time data on the state of the
ocean. These data provide an evidence-base for valuing ocean and coastal resources and
the ecosystem services they support, contributing to the growth of blue capital and blue
carbon markets. A data revolution allows ocean data to be shared openly and transparently
for better monitoring and management of marine resources and processes and to support
decisions about maritime spatial planning. A persistent challenge is that of developing
models that integrate bio-geophysical and socio-ecological data that is actionable and that
can be used to support decisions about ocean resources.

4.3.4. Optimized Marine Resource Use for a Circular, No-Waste Blue Economy
A shift to a circular economy is accelerated through advancements in harvesting
technologies and the improved coordination of existing infrastructures (e.g., co-use of
fishing vessels and production facilities) and identifying innovative solutions to valorise
different uses of waste (such as through biomimicry). Establishing new or circular supply
chains is based on the effective management and integration of activities in key sectors and
on establishing synergies between actors in different supply chains including aquaculture,
fisheries, and tourism.

4.3.5. Advanced Biotechnologies for Water Purification & Wastewater Treatment

Water purification is crucial as pollution and contamination by oil and waste, and
microplastics spiral. Although water treatment technology has been around for decades,
there are interesting and innovative developments to make water purification sustain-
able. Innovative biotech solutions utilize enzyme technology, specialized microbes and
bio-based filters to remove contaminants such as micro-pollutants. Nonetheless, the poten-
tially unknown side-effects of releasing genetically engineered microorganisms in nature
are a constraining factor as also the risks of releasing toxic biproducts from microbial
plastic degradation.

4.3.6. Diversified Economic Activities to Sustain Multi-Use Coastal Spaces

Spatial and territorial conflicts sharpen as the coastal zone becomes a melting pot of
blue economy activity. Coastal tourism expands as coastal locations continue to attract visi-
tors for holidays, cruise and medical tourism. Achieving an equilibrium between tourism,
ports and maritime transport and marine biodiversity conservation relies on diversifying
economic activities in the coastal zone and establishing synergies with emerging sectors,
sharing best practices in innovation, and developing sustainability strategies. Examples
of these opportunities are linked to the development of renewable energy tourism, aqua-
culture linked to healthy food for tourism, and the implementation of ‘no-take’ marine
protected areas for sustenance of traditional fishing communities.
Sustainability 2023, 15, 10026 12 of 20

4.3.7. Novel High Value Non-Food Marine Products

Commercial interest in novel non-food marine products grows, especially among blue
start-up tech clusters, and leads to the production of a variety of innovative bio-based
compounds including pharmaceuticals, nutraceuticals, enzymes, cosmetics, and other
products such as synthetic substitutes for chemicals derived from fossil-based materials.
Knowledge about marine genetic diversity remains one of the principal constraining factors
influencing the potential development of industrial applications and innovations.
These cross-cutting trends transcend sectors and areas of industrial activity to explore
future developments and the inter-relations between different topics and drivers. Thus, the
HS exercise produced a limited but relevant number of future trends and developments
likely to inform a science and research agenda towards a sustainable blue economy. The
trends refer mainly to technological advancements and economic and environmental
factors likely to influence future developments in the blue economy. Social factors are
comparatively under-represented. However, the experts participating in the workshop
reflected on the importance of social factors related to such themes as social innovation,
community engagement, and ocean literacy and the impact of economic activities on the
wellbeing of local communities as being central to a discourse on the sustainable growth of
blue economy activities.

5. Discussion
5.1. Scanning the Horizon for Future Trends and Developments—Implications from the HS Data
One of the observations from the HS exercise outputs concerns the rapid technological
advancements particularly in the use of artificial intelligence and robotics in marine and
coastal activities. The reason for this is the growth of technology applications for use in
ocean monitoring and for genetic diagnostics and preservation of biodiversity and applica-
tions in health [7,12,44,54]. The growth of scientific knowledge in the marine and maritime
sectors creates new challenges and demands different approaches to synthesize, store and
interpret data. In this regard, big data analytics offer an opportunity to develop global
systemic data monitoring systems with a wide variety of applications in the marine and
maritime industries such as providing support for the optimization of maritime operations
and port activities [7,31]. There are opportunities for technological advancements in sev-
eral other areas e.g., novel non-food marine products and the development of integrated
zero-waste food systems. However, at present there may be gaps between research and
commercial applications and an evaluation of whether the science system can support the
development of these applications would be useful [3,5,8].
Some topics such as ocean monitoring and surveillance received more attention in the
mapped trends (Table 1). This may in part be due to the background of the participants, but
it may also reflect a greater awareness on the importance of developing systemic approaches
for data collection and management and for the conservation of marine ecosystems and the
resources that support ecosystem services. The significance of establishing multilevel gov-
ernance and cooperation mechanisms for sustainable blue growth was raised in the trends
mapped and this became an underlying theme throughout the HS exercise as it underscored
the role of interdisciplinary cooperation in working towards a sustainability agenda.
The scan results emphasize the importance of developing synergies between scientific
domains and sectors to develop innovative ocean-based solutions for the long term, as seen
by the cross-cutting trends resulting from the HS outputs (Section 4.3). In practical terms,
opportunities for collaborative engagement may arise through cross-sectoral synergies es-
tablished between traditional industries such as ports, transport and tourism and emerging
areas linked to renewable energy and blue biotechnologies [8,15,17]. These activities could
contribute to establishing blue value chains either directly through core activities within
the sector or indirectly by providing the necessary supporting services.
Investments in a science and research agenda require a broad view of the signals
lying at the frontier of science and technology. Indeed, a HS exercise creates a greater
awareness about future developments and possibilities related to new applications and
Sustainability 2023, 15, 10026 13 of 20

solutions to current problems. The outputs from the HS scan and the list of trends that
emerged could be potentially useful for research and industry as well as for policymakers
to determine whether sufficient attention is being given to specific areas of intervention.
In this exercise, the data also point to a present gap which is that of better integrating
the social and the natural sciences to understand the implications of current and future
socio-economic, environmental, and geo-political developments and drivers to achieve a
sustainability transition in the blue economy.

5.2. Reflections on Expert Participation in the HS Exercise

Foresight and horizon scanning addressing topics relating to environmental and
resource management and to sustainability, typically involve experts because these are
assumed to be attuned to developments in their respective fields. A survey undertaken
after the workshop revealed that 80% (n = 29) of the participants claimed to have limited
the search for emerging signals and trends to themes related to their areas of professional
expertise and academic background. This confirms previous claims [19,28] that when
scanning, experts drawn mainly from events and themes that lie close to their domain
of knowledge and that experts may not necessarily be sensitive to searching beyond the
margins of the known environment. Thus, a different group of experts participating in a
HS may have selected and prioritized other issues to those emerging from this exercise.
The aim of engaging experts from different disciplinary backgrounds of the marine
sciences was that of building a ‘collective’ intelligence of signals and trends that could
potentially develop into innovative solutions and opportunities for a sustainability trans-
formation in the blue economy [10,30]. 80% of the workshop participants claimed that the
exchanges occurring in the breakout groups helped generate ideas about new developments
and trends that were not within their radar and possibly would have gone unnoticed. Thus,
expert engagement in the HS favoured the ‘cocreation’ of ideas about future developments
from across disciplines and domains of the blue economy rather than having the experts
think in silos by area of economic activity. The workshop initially aimed to elicit divergent
thinking amongst participants through a process of brainstorming signals and trends on the
horizon to then converge and prioritize those signals and trends with potential to leverage
innovation for a sustainability transformation.
The HS outputs resulted in broad issues being evaluated as high-impact and high-
uncertainty that potentially contribute to global developments in the blue economy. When
prioritizing trends, most participants considered the impact these were likely to have on
environmental preservation of ocean and coastal resources and on societal challenges.
When asked to identify the factors that are likely to influence the trends developing in
the future, 95% of the participants stated that the impacts of climate change are likely to
drive the further development of the trends; 90% considered technology advances and
innovative applications as well as governance of the oceans and its resources as influential
factors; and 86% considered policy and regulatory regimes to play a role.
The participants needed some time to familiarise with the online platform used and
the virtual setting of the workshop was not always conducive to establish a space for
participants to engage informally and exchange research ideas and explore areas of mutual
research interest.

5.3. Recommendations for the Use of the HS Data

The implementation and integration of the HS data into decisions about a research and
innovation agenda for a sustainable blue economy were not part of this study. However,
the outputs from the HS could inspire future research directions and thematic areas that are
currently not well-addressed or are unexplored and represent an opportunity for further
investigation [2,8]. The aim of the HS data is to support decision- and policymakers in bet-
ter understanding the near-future trends and challenges impacting the marine and coastal
environments and identify innovative solutions to address these [28,30]. The HS method
could be easily learnt and implemented within policy units to identify knowledge gaps and
Sustainability 2023, 15, 10026 14 of 20

develop strategic policy. The data could also be useful for scientists, environmental man-
agers and planners involved in interdisciplinary research to obtain information on global
developments influencing the marine and coastal environments that could help address
complex issues such as those relating to climate change and sustainable development.
The study offers insights for practitioners conducting foresight and forecasting ex-
ercises on trends in industrial and socio-economic activities as well as developments in
science and innovation. For example, the trends ‘cards’ in Appendix A can be readily de-
ployed as an icebreaker in a foresight exercise to engage stakeholders in exploring current
and emerging topics in marine and maritime sectors and related industrial activities. The
integrated cross-cutting trends that emerged from the expert workshop could serve as input
for scenario building and complement quantitative forecasting techniques investigating
the future of the blue economy. In this study, the trends inspired the experts involved in
the foresight exercise to develop a series of 6 qualitative future scenarios to inspire research
for a sustainable blue economy published in [8].

6. Conclusions and Areas for Future Research

The horizon scanning (HS) exercise in this study identified emerging signals and trends
that if addressed, could have a significant impact on a science and research agenda for the
future of a sustainable blue economy. The HS data were developed through consultation
with a group of scientists and researchers from six maritime universities in Europe. The data
provide insights on the opportunities and challenges for the future of the blue economy,
looking towards 2030, that could inspire the development of innovative technologies,
services, products and business models within diverse economic and industrial sectors
linked to marine and maritime activities and the blue economy.
As stated in Section 5.2, the output from the HS scan is limited by the diversity of
the participants’ professional background and disciplines and reflects the perspective of
researchers based in Europe. A future HS exercise could include experts with diverse
academic, professional and cultural backgrounds to add different perspectives when iden-
tifying and prioritizing trends and emerging issues. The workshop was restricted to the
participation of scientists. Other experts from government agencies and the private sector
as well as stakeholders from not-for-profit organisations could be involved to offer their
insights for a horizon scanning exercise. As stated by [9], participants bring different knowl-
edge, worldviews, and experience that influence their creative contribution to the process
and to making sense of different streams of information by identifying likely connections
between different pieces of information. Additionally, the HS exercise identified emerging
issues based on the “perceptions, interests and needs of those people who are involved in
the process” [28] (p. 219). These factors, together with the issues selected for discussion
by the participants, limit the applicability of the data for decision-making. Indeed, more
research is needed to understand how the diversity of the participants (from different
disciplines and professional and cultural backgrounds) influence the outcome of strategic
foresight and HS exercises [9].
Despite these limitations, horizon scanning can be used as an additional source of
evidence alongside decision support systems and quantitative forecasting models for
environmental management and planning [2,4]. HS needs to be implemented as a sustained
effort rather than as a one-off exercise. Organizations need to build a collective intelligence
to monitor developments in the long term for these to have a significant impact on decision
making and planning. Horizon scanning is typically undertaken by specialized units
within both public and private organizations. This requires an effort in capacity building
and training in the use of foresight tools and in embedding foresight in the organization’s
culture and decision-making processes [32].
Sustainability 2023, 15, 10026 15 of 20

Although scans may target a wide variety of users (including decision-makers, re-
searchers, enterprises etc.) these users are not always directly involved in identifying and
selecting the issues or themes for a HS exercise and need support to integrate HS outputs
into strategy-building. In practice, many organizations lack institutionally embedded
scanning activities and require external support, such as from foresight practitioners and
specialized agencies to implement a horizon scanning exercise and to integrate the outputs
from global and national-level scans into the organization’s decision-making and research
planning agenda. Future research could investigate how to effectively communicate the
outputs of HS exercises to different audiences including politicians, policymakers, envi-
ronmental planners, and decision-makers and develop tools and approaches tailored to
their different needs and expectations. By using the appropriate search and sensemaking
tools, HS outputs can be made more relevant to the foresight process by addressing specific
challenges and contextual factors—including societal, cultural and political factors—within
which a foresight exercise is implemented.

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, L.A.P.; methodology, L.A.P. and K.B.; formal analysis,
L.A.P. and K.B.; investigation, L.A.P.; resources, L.A.P.; data curation, L.A.P. and A.D.; writing—
original draft preparation, L.A.P. and K.B.; writing—review and editing, L.A.P., K.B. and A.D.;
visualization, L.A.P.; supervision, L.A.P.; project administration, L.A.P.; funding acquisition, L.A.P.
All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding: Lisa A. Pace’s contribution to this study received some support through the SEA-EU
‘University of the Seas’ alliance, partially funded by the European Commission’s Erasmus Plus
programme (Grant number: 612468-EPP-1-2019-1-ES-EPPKA2-EUR-UNIV).
Institutional Review Board Statement: The study protocol and consent processes were approved
by the Research Ethics Committee within the University of Malta (UM Form ID: 6292_27082020).
Informed Consent Statement: Informed consent was obtained from all participants involved in
the study.
Data Availability Statement: No new data were created or analyzed in this study. Data sharing is
not applicable to this article.
Acknowledgments: We are thankful to the scientists and researchers of the ‘SEA-EU University
of the Seas’ alliance for their participation and contribution to our research. The views expressed
here are those of the authors alone, and do not necessarily reflect the individual opinions of the
participants nor do they reflect the view of the European Commission. We would like to thank the
editor and the reviewers for their helpful comments that allowed us to improve the manuscript.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Appendix A
In this appendix, we include the trends ‘cards’ and trend projections towards 2030
derived from an analysis of high-level international reports and studies on global develop-
ments in the blue economy.
 Appendix A

Sustainability 2023, 15, 10026

In this appendix, we include the trends ‘cards’ and trend projections towards 16
2030
of 20
derived from an analysis of high-level international reports and studies on global devel-
opments in the blue economy.
Sustainability 2023, 15, 10026 17 of 20
Sustainability 2023, 15, 10026 18 of 20

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