HACT
HACT
HACT
Macro Assessment-
Mongolia
11 October 2017
Draft
1
Table of Contents
Executive Summary.................................................................................................................................... 4
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Abbreviations and Acronyms
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Executive Summary
This Macro Assessment for Mongolia was prepared in accordance with the corresponding Terms of
Reference included in the Long Term Agreement for Services (LTAS - 42105423) between KPMG and the
United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF).
Results
The following provides details of the two primary outputs of the Macro Assessment:
Risks: The following table provides a summary of the risks identified during the Macro Assessment:
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The Macro Assessment does not conclude with one overall risk rating. Instead, the Macro Assessment
provides the risks associated with a broad range of topics that can be utilized by agencies in consideration
of its country operations and the programs implemented by its IPs.
Refer to further details of the Macro Assessment provided in Annex 1 & 2 below
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11 October 2017 United Nations Macro Assessment - Mongolia
Agencies utilizing HACT framework in country United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF)
United Nations Development Programme
(UNDP)
United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)
Has a macro assessment been performed for this In October 2013 by KOSI
country previously (by any organization)?
Member(s) of the macro assessment team The macro assessment was conducted by
(Name, designation, section/organization) KPMG Mongolia and reviewed by KPMG LLP1.
The team members included:
KPMG Mongolia:
Mark Eberst, Partner
Joo Ho Lee, Director
KPMG LLP:
Mark Fitzgerald, Principal
Audie McRae, Manager
Motwani Nicholas, Senior Associate
Sources of information used in assessment (title, See Appendix A
date published, source, etc.)
1
KPMG in the United States is KPMG LLP (US), a U.S. limited liability partnership and member firm of the KPMG network of independent member
firms affiliated with KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative; KPMG Mongolia, the member firm affiliated with KPMG International located in
Mongolia. References to KPMG are to KPMG in the United States or KPMG in Mongolia as the context requires.
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11 October 2017 United Nations Macro Assessment - Mongolia
Risk Consideration
Indicator Comment
No. Indicator High risk Significant risk Moderate risk Low risk
risk level
IMF’s recommendations
were to be implemented to
be in compliance with EFF
funding arrangement IMF
was to provide for Mongolia.
However, recently the IMF
announced that it will delay
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11 October 2017 United Nations Macro Assessment - Mongolia
Risk Consideration
Indicator Comment
No. Indicator High risk Significant risk Moderate risk Low risk
risk level
2 Budget and Budget decisions Budget decisions Low As per the 2015 PEFA report,
performance are only nominally are fully debated budget decisions appear to be
debated. Little with assistance fully debated with assistance
consideration of from expert from Budget Standing
previous committees. Full Committee.
performance is consideration of The parliament has
approximately six weeks to
taken into previous
approve the budget where
account when performance is
debates are normally
setting future taken into involved. (The Government is
budgets. account when required to submit the next
setting future year’s budget to the
budgets. parliament by October 1st
and the parliament has to
approve the budget by
November 15th.)
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11 October 2017 United Nations Macro Assessment - Mongolia
Risk Consideration
Indicator Comment
No. Indicator High risk Significant risk Moderate risk Low risk
risk level
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11 October 2017 United Nations Macro Assessment - Mongolia
Risk Consideration
Indicator Comment
No. Indicator High risk Significant risk Moderate risk Low risk
risk level
4 To what extent Procedures are Procedures are Procedures are Procedures are Moderate Internal controls and financial
are internal frequently over- generally generally always followed. procedures are
controls and ridden or ignored. followed, but followed. While comprehensive and enforced.
financial Emergency there are exceptions exist,
procedures While there are exceptions,
procedures are significant they are not
adhered to? exceptions. frequent enough they are not frequent enough
routinely used.
Doubt exists as to prevent to prevent reliance on the
to whether or not reliance on the internal control system. The
the internal internal control internal control rules and
control system procedures are well
system.
can be relied understood and implemented.
upon.
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11 October 2017 United Nations Macro Assessment - Mongolia
Risk Consideration
Indicator Comment
No. Indicator High risk Significant risk Moderate risk Low risk
risk level
5 Bank Many accounts A number of Generally banks Performed to a Moderate Per the 2015 PEFA report,
reconciliations are not reconciled significant are properly high standard for Bank account reconciliations
monthly. accounts are not reconciled each all bank accounts for the Treasury Single
Reconciliations reconciled month. at least once a Account (TSA) and for the
are often poorly monthly. Quality Exceptions exist month. accounts held in commercial
performed. is sometimes but appropriate banks are done on a daily
basis between the Treasury
poor. follow-up action
department and the Central
is taken in all
Bank.
cases.
TSA accounts for all
government transactions
except extra-budgetary funds,
which accounted for 19.7%
of total government
expenditure in 2013.
(Appendix A, Item 1). pg 11,
17, 62
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11 October 2017 United Nations Macro Assessment - Mongolia
Risk Consideration
Indicator Comment
No. Indicator High risk Significant risk Moderate risk Low risk
risk level
Risk Consideration
Indicator Comment
No. Indicator High risk Significant risk Moderate risk Low risk
risk level
7 Reporting of Analysis of cash Full analysis of Low There is a full analysis of cash
cash and asset and asset cash and asset and asset position made
position to position made to position is made available to the government.
government government to government.
contains Consolidated financial
significant statements for the
Government of Mongolia are
omissions.
prepared biannually. The
consolidated financial
statements include both
central and subnational
entities. The consolidation
includes wholly-owned
entities and those in which
the government’s
participation in ownership is
90%
or greater, as well as
project/programs and funds
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11 October 2017 United Nations Macro Assessment - Mongolia
Risk Consideration
Indicator Comment
No. Indicator High risk Significant risk Moderate risk Low risk
risk level
implemented/managed by
Government ministries and
agencies.
The accounting framework for
presentation of the financial
statements required by law is
accrual based IPSAS.. The
financial statements therefore
present information on
revenues, expenditures,
assets, liabilities and equity
accounts.
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11 October 2017 United Nations Macro Assessment - Mongolia
Risk Consideration
Indicator Comment
No. Indicator High risk Significant risk Moderate risk Low risk
risk level
9 SAI SAI reports to SAI reports to High The Supreme Audit Institution
independence government legislature (or in Mongolia reports to the
agency. equivalent justice legislature.
system). (Appendix A, Item 1) pg 70
11 Follow-up Points raised by Points raised by Points raised by Points raised by Significant There is evidence of effective
action to audit external audit are external audit are external audit are external audit are and timely follow up for the
reports infrequently usually but not always followed always properly most part.
followed up. always followed up. In a few followed up.
up. A significant cases, points Points generally Based on random sampling of
number of points recur in following do not recur in ten government entities, we
have reviewed follow-up
recur in following years. following years.
actions taken to findings
years.
raised in the previous year’s
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11 October 2017 United Nations Macro Assessment - Mongolia
Risk Consideration
Indicator Comment
No. Indicator High risk Significant risk Moderate risk Low risk
risk level
(Appendix A, Item 1) pg 70
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11 October 2017 United Nations Macro Assessment - Mongolia
Risk Consideration
Indicator Comment
No. Indicator High risk Significant risk Moderate risk Low risk
risk level
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11 October 2017 United Nations Macro Assessment - Mongolia
Risk Consideration
Indicator Comment
No. Indicator High risk Significant risk Moderate risk Low risk
risk level
Mongolia’s score of 38 on
Transparency International’s
2016 Corruption Perception
Index dropped its ranking
from 72 to 87 in 2016. Over
recent years, Mongolia’s
score on the Corruption
Perception Index has
stagnated, with scores of 36
in 2012, 38 in 2013, 39 in
2014, and 39 in 2015. This
year, Mongolia’s score fell by
one point to 38, suggesting
continued stagnation in
Mongolia’s anti-corruption
efforts.
13 Transparency Statutory external Most statutory All statutory All statutory Significant All audit reports are available
of audit audit reports are external audit external audit external audit to the public on the
process infrequently reports are reports are reports are Mongolian National Audit
published. They published. They published. They published. They Office (MNAO) websites.
are rarely debated are sometimes are usually are debated in They are sometimes debated
in the media, debated in the debated in the the media when in the media when of public
even when of media when of media when of of public interest. interest.
public interest. public interest. public interest.
As per the OECD’s report, the
MNAO’s 2014 report
indicated that the MNAO
conducted 248 performance
audits, 4,543 financial
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11 October 2017 United Nations Macro Assessment - Mongolia
Risk Consideration
Indicator Comment
No. Indicator High risk Significant risk Moderate risk Low risk
risk level
Risk Consideration
Indicator Comment
No. Indicator High risk Significant risk Moderate risk Low risk
risk level
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11 October 2017 United Nations Macro Assessment - Mongolia
Risk Consideration
Indicator Comment
No. Indicator High risk Significant risk Moderate risk Low risk
risk level
14 Staff It is often unclear In some cases, it In only some It is always clear Significant Although there is not much
qualifications whether staff is unclear isolated cases is that all staff have clarity on whether personnel
and skills have the skills whether staff it unclear the skills and have the skills and
and qualifications have the skills whether staff qualifications qualifications necessary to
necessary to and qualifications have the skills necessary to conduct their jobs well,
discharge their necessary to and qualifications discharge their Mongolia ranks number 86
out of 127 on KPMG’s
duties. discharge their necessary to duties.
Change Readiness Index
duties. discharge their
(CRI), with a score of .45 out
duties. of 1.0 on Public
Administration. This score is
based on political interference
and corruption, which affect
government bureaucracy
management. As such, we
have set the risk level at
Significant. (Appendix A, Item
4.1 p. 8; Item 4.2
“Government Capability”)
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11 October 2017 United Nations Macro Assessment - Mongolia
Risk Consideration
Indicator Comment
No. Indicator High risk Significant risk Moderate risk Low risk
risk level
15 Financial Financial systems Financial systems Financial systems Financial systems Moderate Financial systems are
systems only capture and only capture and are adequate for are adequate for adequate for most, but not all,
report on the report on the most but not all data capture and data capture and reporting
most basic most basic data capture and reporting needs. needs. The financial systems
financial data, and financial data. reporting needs. They are reliable are reliable and properly
this is frequently While there are They are reliable and properly maintained. Budget reporting
is “good” but can be
unreliable. system and properly maintained.
enhanced (Appendix A, Item
System maintenance and maintained.
6). pg 10;13
maintenance and performance
performance is problems, The Implementing Partner’s
generally poor. generally the annual and quarterly
system is stable. budget/disbursement plans
are prepared annually by
IPSAS (“International Public
Sector Accounting Standard”)
through the Government
Financial Management
Information System (GFMIS)
non-integrated, stand-alone,
fixed asset accounting,
procurement, budget entity,
and consolidated financial
reporting systems. The
annual budget/disbursement
plan will be discussed and
approved by the MOF and
Implementing Partner and
reflected in the state budget.
The Government Financial
Management Information
System (GFMIS) covers under
IPSAS (“International Public
Sector Accounting Standard”)
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11 October 2017 United Nations Macro Assessment - Mongolia
Risk Consideration
Indicator Comment
No. Indicator High risk Significant risk Moderate risk Low risk
risk level
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11 October 2017 United Nations Macro Assessment - Mongolia
Risk Consideration
Indicator Comment
No. Indicator High risk Significant risk Moderate risk Low risk
risk level
17 Exchange rate Foreign exchange Foreign exchange Foreign exchange Foreign exchange High Mongolia has had a floating
volatility rates fluctuate rates fluctuate rates have rates do not exchange rate regime since
significantly on a significantly on a remained fluctuate 2009 and the foreign
daily basis. weekly or relatively significantly. exchange rates continue to
monthly basis. consistent, with fluctuate significantly.
the exception of
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11 October 2017 United Nations Macro Assessment - Mongolia
Risk Consideration
Indicator Comment
No. Indicator High risk Significant risk Moderate risk Low risk
risk level
18 Existence of a Black market is Black market Black market Black market may Significant The Asia Foundation report,
black market prevalent and exists and has exists in the exist but does not makes references to previous
influential in the significant country, but have an influence reports that estimated the
country. influence in the effective actions in the country. size of the informal sector in
country. are being taken to Mongolia. The study on the
eliminate or limit informal economy which was
funded by USAID (published
its influence in
in 2000) suggested that the
the country.
informal economy accounted
for 13% of value-added GDP.
In 2004, the National
Statistical Office (NSO) of
Mongolia put this figure at
10.5%, and the informal
sector’s share of GDP was
revised downward again to
8% following a census in
2006. As for the informal
economy’s share of overall
GDP, the International
Monetary Fund asserted in
2008 that the informal
economy accounted for 37%
of Output. Mongolia has, of
course, changed considerably
since these studies were
published, but within the
informal sector, change has
been gradual and the informal
sector decreased.
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11 October 2017 United Nations Macro Assessment - Mongolia
Risk Consideration
Indicator Comment
No. Indicator High risk Significant risk Moderate risk Low risk
risk level
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11 October 2017 United Nations Macro Assessment - Mongolia
Risk Consideration
Indicator Comment
No. Indicator High risk Significant risk Moderate risk Low risk
risk level
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Appendix A: Sources of Information
The following sources of information were utilized for the Macro Assessment. Each source
represents to the most recent publicly available document at the time the Macro Assessment was
performed.
4. 2017 Change Readiness Index – Assessing countries’ ability to manage change and
cultivate opportunity
4.1 https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2017/07/change-readiness-index-
report-2017.pdf;
4.2 https://home.kpmg.com/xx/en/home/insights/2017/06/change-readiness-tool.html
5. Mongolia: 2017 Article IV Consultation and Request for an Extended Arrangement Under
the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release: Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive
Director for Mongolia
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2017/05/31/Mongolia-2017-Article-IV-
Consultation-and-Request-for-an-Extended-Arrangement-Under-the-44954
8. ASIA-PACIFIC REGION: Overview of El Niño Impact and Responses (as of June 2016)
http://www.un-mongolia.mn/new/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/ElNino_infographic_160606.pdf
9. World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update April 2017
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/26332/9781464810862.pdf?sequ
ence=4&isAllowed=y
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11. IMF, Technical Assistance report – Report on the National Accounts Mission, 2017
http://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/CR/2017/cr1752.ashx
13. Country report on Natural Disasters in Mongolia (Asian Disaster Reduction Center)
http://www.adrc.asia/countryreport/MNG/MNGeng98/index.html
14. The informal economy in Ulaanbaatar: Policy options to promote growth in the ger areas
(Asia Foundation)
https://asiafoundation.org/resources/pdfs/TheInformalEconomyinUlaanbaatar.pdf
19. IMF delays Mongolia bailout payment after govt ousting, September 14, 2017, Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/mongolia-imf/imf-delays-mongolia-bailout-payment-after-govt-
ousting-idUSL4N1LV2TI
20. The Role of the Constitution of Mongolia in Consolidating Democracy, UNDP Mongolia,
2015
file:///C:/Users/mmungunshagai/Downloads/ConstReview_eng.pdf
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Appendix B: Change Readiness Index Country
Snapshot
Location: Mongolia
Below is a snapshot of how Mongolia performs under the three pillars of the
out of 127
CRI: enterprise capability, government capability, and people & civil countries on
society capability.
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